PROBABILITY

8. Draw a non-face card when a card is drawn from a

Given a statistical experiment with sample space S and an regular deck of cards.
event E which is a subset of S. The probability of E, denoted S = draw a card n(S) = 52
by P(E) is a measure associated to the likelihood or chances E = draw a non-face card n(E) = 40
of the occurrence of E. It is defined as P(non-face)=40/52=10/13
n E or
P E E = draw a face card E = draw a non-
n S face card
where n(S) is the total number of outcomes (or sample Since n(E) = 12, then
points) of the experiment, while n(E) is the number of P(E) = 1 P(E) = 1 12/52 = 1 3/13 =
outcomes favorable to the occurrence of event E. 10/13

NOTE:
P(E) can be expressed in decimal, fraction, or percent form. REMARK: The preceding examples involve finding the
Unless specified express all decimal and percent result in 2 probability of single events. In case the probability involves
decimal places. two or more events, the one must use either the ADDITION
RULE or the MULTIPLICATION RULE.
Properties:
1. P(S) = 1 MUTUALLY AND NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
2. If E is the complementary event of E, then Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no
P E P E ' 1
sample point in common. If they have at least one sample
or equivalently point in common, then A and B are non-mutually exclusive
P E ' 1 P E events.

3. 0 P E 1
4. If P(E) is near 1, then E is more likely to happen. If
P(E) = 1 , then E will surely happen. If P(E) is near
0, then E is less likely to happen. If P(E) = 0 , then E
will surely not happen. A B B
Given P(A or B), use the addition rule.
Examples: OR is synonymous to set union (elements of the sets are
Find the probability of the following events: combined)
1. Getting an odd number when a die is rolled. AND is Synonymous to set intersection (get common
elements of the sets)
S = roll a die n(S)=6
E = get an odd n(E)=3
ADDITION RULE
P(E)=n(E)/n(S) = 3/6 = 1/2
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
2. Getting a sum of seven when two dice are rolled. P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B )
S=roll 2 dice n(S) = 6*6 = 36 otherwise,
E= get a sum of 7 = {(1,6),(6,1),(2,5),
(5,2),(3,4), (4,3)}
P(E) =6/36 = 1/6 P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A and B )
NOTES:
3. Getting a head when a coin is tossed. P(A or B) = probability that A only occurs or B only
S = {T,H} occurs or both A and B occur. Equivalently, P(A or
E = {H} B) is the probability that at least one of A and B
P(E )= 1/2 occur.
P(A and B) = probability that A and B will both occur
4. Getting more heads than tails when three coins are at the same time.
tossed. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) =
n(S) = 222 = 8 0.
E= more heads than tails = {HHT, HTH,
THH, HHH} n(E) = 4 Examples of mutually exclusive events:
P(E) = 4/8 = 1/2 1. Draw a heart card or a diamond card when a card is
drawn from a regular deck of cards
5. Draw a face card when a card is drawn from a 2. Get a sum of 7 or a sum of 11 when two dice are
regular deck of cards. rolled
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 3. Get more heads than tails or all tails when 4 coins
E = draw a face card n(E) = 12 are tossed
P(face)=12/52=3/13
Examples of non-mutually exclusive events:
6. Draw an ace card when a card is drawn from a 1. Draw a face card or a black card
regular deck of cards. 2. Draw a red card or a diamond card
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 3. Get a sum of eight or a double when two dice
E = draw an ace card n(E) = 4 are rolled
P(ace) = 4/52 = 1/13
Examples: Find the probability of the following events:
7. Draw a non-ace card when a card is drawn from a 1. Getting a prime number or an odd number when a
regular deck of cards. die is rolled.
S = draw a card n(S) = 52 A = get a prime number = {2, 3, 5}
E = draw an non-ace card n(E) = 48 B = get an odd number = {1, 3, 5}
A and B = {3, 5}
P(non-ace) = 48/52 = 12/13
Getting a prime number and getting an
or
odd number are non mutually exclusive
E = draw an ace card E = draw a non-
events. Therefore,
ace card
P(odd or prime)=P(odd) + P(prime)
Since n(E) = 4, then
P(odd and prime)
P(E) = 1 P(E) = 1 4/52 = 1 1/13 =
12/13 =3/6 + 3/6 2/6 = 4/6 or 2/3
 2. Solve the preceding problem assuming that the
2. Getting the same numbers (a double) or a sum of cards are drawn with replacement.
seven when two dice are rolled. Solution:
Getting a double or a sum of seven are P(2 face cards) = P(1st face card and 2nd face card)
mutually exclusive events, hence = P(1st face card) P(2nd face card | 1st face card)
P( same numbers OR sum of 7) = P(same = 12/52 12/52
nos) + P(sum of 7) = 6/36 + 6/36 = 1/6 + or
1/6 = 2/6 or 1/3 Since the two events are independent, then
P(2 face cards) = P(1st face card) P(2nd face card)
3. Getting a face card or a queen card when a card is = 12/52 12/52
drawn from a regular deck of cards 3. Find the probability that when one draws three balls
Getting a face card or a queen card are from a box containing 4 green, 5 red and 3 blue
non-mutually exclusive events, hence balls, the three balls drawn are of GREEN if the balls
P(face or queen) = P(face) + P(queen) are drawn
P(face card and a queen) = 12/52 + 4/52 a. with replacement (drawn ball is returned into
4/52 = 12/52 = 3/13 the box)
b. without replacement (drawn ball is not
4. Getting an ace card or a red card a card is drawn returned into the box)
from a regular deck of cards.
Getting an ace card or a red card are non-
mutually exclusive events, therefore,
P(ace or red)= P(ace) + P(red) P(ace
card and red) = 4/52 + 26/52 2/52 =
28/52 = 7/13

5. Getting all tails or all heads when three coins are Solution:
tossed. WITH REPLACEMENT
Getting all tails or all heads are mutually P(3G) = ?
exclusive event. Therefore, =P(1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd green) = ?
P( 3T or 3H) = P(3T) + P(3H) = 1/8 + 1/8 Note that these three events are independent
= 2/8 or 1/4 events, since the ball drawn in returned back to the
box.
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS P(3G) = P(1st is G) P(2nd is G) P(3rd is G)
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one = 4/12 4/12 4/12 = 1/3 1/3 1/3 =
has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of the 1/27
other. Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.
WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
P(3G)=?
Since a green ball drawn is not returned to the box,
Examples: Independent Events the probability of drawing the next green ball is not
1. Drawing 2 cards from a regular deck with the same as the probability of the drawing the
replacement preceding green ball. Therefore,
2. Passing 2 subjects P(3G) =P(1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd green)
3. Tossing 2 coins =?
4. Rolling 2 dice = P( 1st is green) P(2nd is green | 1st is green)

Examples: Dependent Events P(3rd is green | 1st and 2nd are green)
1. Drawing 2 cards from a regular deck without = 4/12 3/11 2/10 = 24/1320 = 1/55
replacement
2. Passing the subject and passing the monthly OR USING COMBINATION
examination of the subject S= draw 3 balls from a box of 12 balls n(S) =
C(12,3) = 220
Given P(A and B), then use the MULTIPLICATION RULE E= draw 3 green from 4 green balls n(E) = C(4,3)
=4
MULTIPLICATION RULE P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = C(4,3)/C(12,3) = 4/220 or 1/55
The probability that A occurs and B occurs is given by
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B | A) NOTE: If selections are done without replacement,
then the events are dependent. This is equivalent
where
to a combination problem.
P ( B | A) probability that B will occur
assuming that A already
occurred. 4. A drawer contains 4 white and 6 black socks. Find
the probability that the 2 socks drawn are
If A and B are independent events, then a. both black?
P ( B | A) P B b. of the same color?
c. of different colors?
This implies that the probability of B is not affected by the Unless otherwise specified, assume drawing without
occurrence of A. replacement.

Therefore, if A and B are independent events, then Solution:

P( A and B) P( A) P ( B ) a. E1 = draw a black sock from the drawer
Examples: E2 = draw another black sock from the drawer
1. Find the probability of drawing 2 face cards from a P(draw 2 black socks) = P(E1 and E2) = P(E1)
regular deck of cards if the cards are drawn without P(E2|E1) = (6/10)(5/9) = 30/90 = 1/3
replacement.
Solution: b. P(same color) = P(both black or both white) = ?
P(2 face cards) = P(1st card is a face card and 2nd Since these events are mutually exclusive
card is a face card) events, then
= P(1st face card) P(2nd face card | 1st face card) P(both black or both white) = P(both are black)
= 12/52 11/51 + P(both are white).
P(both are black) = 1/3 (or 30/90).
 P(both are white) = P(1st sock is white and 2nd a. without replacement
sock is also white) = (4/10)(3/9) = 12/90. b. with replacement
P(same color) = 30/90 + 12/90 = 42/90 = 7. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
7/15. are of the same color if the balls are drawn
a. without replacement
c. P(different colors) = ? b. with replacement
P(different colors) = 1 P(same color) 8. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
= 1 42/90 = 48/90 = 8/15 are of different colors if the balls are drawn
a. without replacement
b. with replacement

SOLUTION:
OR Using Combinations: 1. Find the probability that when two coins are tossed,
S = draw 2 socks from 10 socks n(S) = C(10,2) = two tails will result.
45. Solution:
E = draw 2 black socks from 6 black socks n(E) = Let A = event of getting a tail in
C(6,2) = 15 the 1st toss
P(both black) = n(E)/n(S) = 15/45 = 1/3. B = event of getting a tail in the
2nd toss
b) P(same color) = ? P(A and B) = ?
P(same color) = P(both white OR both Since A and B are independent, then
black) P(A and B) = P(A)P(B) =
= P(both white) + P(both black) 1 1 1
= C(4,2)/C(10,2) +
C(6,2)/C(10,2) 2 2 4
=6/45 + 15/45 = 21/45 = 7/15
2. Find the probability that when two coins are tossed,
c) P(different colors) = ? a head and a tail will result.
P(different colors) = 1 P(same color) Solution 1: Enumeration
= 1 7/15 = 8/15 S = {TT, TH, HT, HH} n(S) = 4
E = get a tail and a head = {TH, HT}
5. The probability that a student will pass biostatistics n(E) = 2
is 0.8 and her probability of passing biochemistry is Therefore,
n E 2 1
0.6. find the following:
a. probability that she will pass both subjects
P E
b. probability that she will fail both subjects
c. probability that she will pass biostatistics
n S 4 2
but fail biochemistry
Solution 2: Use addition and multiplication
Solution: rules
Let A = pass biostat Let A = getting a tail in the 1st
B =pass biochem toss
Note that A and B are independent events B = getting a head in the 2nd toss
a. probability that she will pass both subjects P(getting a head and a tail) = P((A and B) or (A
P( A and B)=P(A) P(B) = (0.8)(0.6) = 0.48 and B)) addition rule, mutually exclusive
Since A and B (T then H) and A and B (H then
b. probability that she will fail both subjects T) are mutually exclusive, then
Let A=failing biostat P(H and T) = P(A and B) + P(A and B)
B=failing biochem Since A and B are independent and so are A
Since A and B are independent, then so are A and and B, then
B P(H and T) = P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(B)
P(A and B)=P(A) P(B) = (1-0.8)(1-0.6) = (0.2)
(0.4) =0.08 or 8%
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
c. probability that she will pass biostatistics but
fail biochemistry 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 2
P(A and B)= P(A) P(B) = (0.8)(1 0.6) =
(0.8)(0.4)=0.32 or 32%

NOTE: 3. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected

In solving a probability problem involving at least 2 events, if from a group of 4 men and 3 women, the two
the problem involves OR, determine if the events are persons are both male.
mutually exclusive or not, then use the ADDITION RULE. If Solution 1: Count using Combination
the problem involves AND, determine if the events are Let S = number of ways of selecting 2
independent or not, then use the MULTIPLICATION RULE. persons from the group of 4 men and 3
women without restriction and let E = the
More Examples: number of ways of selecting 2 men from
Find the probability of the following: the same group.
1. when two coins are tossed, two tails will result. n(S) = C(7,2) = 21
2. when two coins are tossed, a head and a tail will n(E) = C(4,2) = 6.
result. Therefore,
3. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 n E 6 2
P(E) =
n S 21 7
persons are selected, the two persons are both
male.
4. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2
persons are selected, the two persons are of the Solution 2: Use multiplication rule
same gender. Let A = Select the 1st male
5. from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 B = Select the 2nd male
persons are selected, the two persons are of
different gender.
6. from a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls
are both red if the balls are drawn
 The 2 events are dependent: the probability P(2 red balls) = P(1st ball is red)
4 4 4 16
that A occurs is , while the probability that P(2nd ball is red) =
7 10 10 100
B occurs assuming that A already occurred is
3 a. P(2 balls same color with replacement) =
. Therefore, P(2 red balls with replacement) + P(2 blue
6 balls with replacement). In both
P(select 2 males) = P(A) P(B | A) probability problems, then two involved
events are independent events. Hence
4 3 2
= P(2 R w/ rep) = P(1st is red) P(2nd is red)
7 6 7 4 4 16
which is the same as the preceding result. =
10 10 100
4. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected and
from a group of 4 men and 3 women, the two P(2 B w/ rep) = P(1st is blue) P(2nd is
persons are of the same gender. blue)
Solution: Use addition and multiplication rules 6 6 36
If we let E = same gender, then =
P(E) = P(both male or both female) 10 10 100
These 2 events are mutually exclusive, hence Therefore,
P(E) = P(both male) + P(both female) P(2 balls same color) = P(2 red) + P(2
From the preceding problem, blue)
P(both male) = 2/7
16 36 52
Verify (using the preceding example as model) =
that 100 100 100
P(both female) = 1/7
Therefore, EXERCISES:
P(E) = P(both male) + P(both female) 7. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from
2 1 3 a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are
both red if the balls are drawn
7 7 7 a. without replacement
b. with replacement
5. Find the probability that if 2 persons are selected
from a group of 4 men and 3 women, when 2 8. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from
persons are selected, the two persons are of a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are of
different gender. different colors if the balls are drawn
Solution: a. without replacement
If we let E = select two persons of the b. with replacement
same gender, then
E = select two persons of 9. The probability that a student will pass the
different gender monthly exam is 70%, the preliminary exam is
Using the Complement Rule, we have 60% and the final exam 80%. Assuming that
P(E) = 1 P(E) passing these 3 exams are independent, find the
3 4 probability that the student will pass the monthly
= 1 and final exam but fail the preliminary exam.
7 7 ___________

6. Find the probability that if two balls are drawn from 10. If A and B are independent events and P(A) = 0.4
a box of 6 blue and 4 red balls, the two balls are and P(B) = 0.5, find
both red if the balls are drawn a. the Venn diagram summarizing the given
a. without replacement probability data.
b. with replacement b. P(A and B) ____________
c. P(A and B) ____________
d. P(A or B) _____________

11. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A)

= 0.3 and P(B) = 0.45, find
a. the Venn diagram summarizing the given
probability data.
b. P(A or B) ___________
Solution: c. P(A and B) __________
WITHOUT REPLACEMENT d. P(Aand B) __________
a. Event of getting 2 red balls = get 1st
red ball (event A) then get 2nd red ball
without replacing the 1st ball (event
B)
Since A and B are dependent, then
P(2 red balls) = P(1st ball is red)
P(2nd ball is red given that the first
ball drawn is red)
or in symbols,
P(2 R) = P(A) P(B | A)
4 3 12
=
10 9 90
b. Event of getting 2 red balls = get 1st
red ball (event A) then get 2nd red ball
after replacing the 2nd ball (event B)
Since A and B are independent, then