Jornada de Difusin del Proyecto
Modelo Avanzado de Interaccin entre Usos del Suelo y Sistemas de Transporte (TRA2012-37659)
Urban Form, Mobility and
Accessibility: Integral
assessment of urban policies
Pierluigi Coppola
Universit di Roma Tor Vergata, Italy
Santander, 25 Marzo 2015
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Outline
Land-Use / Transport Interaction (LUTI) models:
overview and aims
Integral assessment of sustainable transport
policies
An application to Rome (Italy)
Land Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI)
Transport is a derived demand resulting from patterns of economic
activity & the interactions between them
Costs Costs
and and
Location of congestion
Transport
congestion Location of
Households System Employment,
Education, Retail
Transport influences location choice - changes in accessibility or
congestion make places more/less attractive
Note: We are concerned with the activity at the location, not the land itself
The Land Use / Transport cycle
The circular dependence between spatial distribution of activities ,
travel demand and network performances (transport costs ) is
referred to as the Land-Use / Transport Cycle
LUTI models aims at simulating the feedback of transport on the
activities systems
Several feedbacks are possible several LUTI modelling
approaches
Activities
Spatial ACTIVITY SYSTEM
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
distribution
Demand (OD
matrices)
Supply (network Transport
performances) costs
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First generation of LUTI Modelling
The first generation of LUTI models strongly relates to
traditional four stage modelling
Unlike four-stage modelling, there is no single approach to
Land Use modelling
Each package available takes its own approach, though
many have strongly related concepts
Note: this presentation will concentrate on the STIT-
INTERLAND approach; other approaches to LUTI modelling
exist, but many principles are similar
First generation of LUTI Modelling
The first generation of LUTI models strongly relates to traditional
four stage modelling
Unlike four-stage modelling, there is no single approach to Land
Use modelling; though many have strongly related concepts
Projected housing/
employment
1. Trip Generation
In VERY simplistic x Trip Rates = Trips
terms, the Land Use
component
replaces this box
2. Distribution Based on O-D costs and trip
Distribution attractions or constraints
LOGIT-based selection based on
3. Mode Choice Mode Choice composite costs
Optimisation of time and
4. Routing Routing money cost on network
Second (and third) generation of LUTI modelling
Representation of key actors and markets, and their
decisions:
- Developers: whether to develop new land (and when)
- Employers: where to locate (economic link: how many jobs are created)
- Residents: where to live, and where to work
- Transport providers: what transport linkages are provided
- Government: influences all the actors and markets through investment,
regulation and pricing (taxation)
Aggregate vs. disaggregate (i.e. microsimulation)
approaches
Second (and third) generation of LUTI modelling
Key actors
Households
Firms
Developers
Government
Markets Firms
Housing/land
jobs
transport
Choices
Location
Firms/jobs
Buildings
Policies
Interactions
Internal
External (i.e. w.r.t. Click to edit Master title style
Source: Waddell (2000) 8
transports system) 8
Aims of LUTI models
1. Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)
Cost Benefits Analysis
2. Assessing wider effects of transportation
policies
Integral assessment
Aims of LUTI models
Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)
Cost Benefits Analysis
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
Integral assessment
-15% - -2%
Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)
-2% - 2%
percentage variation of trips generated and attracted on Public
2% - 15%
Transport in the zones served by the new lines
> 15%
Variazione percentuale
della poplazione
% variation of activities
< -15%
-15% - -2%
# of trips attracted by new lines
-2% - 2%
# of trips generated by new lines
2% - 15%
> 15% Click to edit Master title style
Aims of LUTI models
Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)
Cost Benefits Analysis
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
Integral assessment
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
1. effects arising from markets enlargement
2. effects arising from markets competition
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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
1. effects arising from markets enlargement
2. effects arising from markets competition
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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
effects arising from markets enlargement due to improved
accessibility experienced by businesses and populations; typically
seen as positive effects (referred to as Wider Economic Benefits)
e.g. growth of:
- GDP
- employment
- competitiveness
- tourism
...
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Crossrail Link London (2017)
Crossrail Link Londra (2017)
21 Km tunnel under the city center of London 10 new
underground stations
East-West connection between Paddington and Liverpool Street
train station; connection to Heathrow airport, the Canary Wharfs,
and the city of London
Investiment cost : 14,8 bn (approx. 18,2 Billion Euro)
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Crossrail Link: Conventional Cost Benefit analysis
Direct benefits
travel time savings
congestion
Externalities
pollutant emissions
road safety
VAN (bn) B/C ratio
'Conventional' Cost-Benefit Analysis 9,9 2,76
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Crossrail Link: integral assessment of wider effects
Wider Economic Benefits accessibility to job increase
Move to More Productive Jobs (M2MPJ);
Pure Agglomeration (Pag);
Increase in Labor Force participation (LFP)
Impacts on Imperfect Competition (IC)
+100.000 new jobs in the Greater London; VAN (bn) B/C ratio
'Conventional'
+1,5 milionCost-Benefit
people withAnalysis" 9,9City, West-End
access within 45 minutes to the 2,76e the
Integral assessment
Canary Wharfs of wider economic benefits 18 5,87
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
1. effects arising from markets enlargement
2. effects arising from markets competition
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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
effects arising from markets competition , which may be positive
but also negative, the weaker may succumb
e.g. competition for housing can mean that lower-income households get forced
away from places served by transport investments that were intended to help
them
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J.E. Millais (1845) - Pizarro seizing the Inca of Peru
Social impacts of transport policies
Lack of consolidated methodologies and Guidelines
Transport Equity is connected to accessibility and participation into
activities (capabilities)
Activities Accessibility poverty line
participation
Segmento di popolazione e/o
popolazione residente in una zona
Accessibility
EU Cost Action (TU1042) on Transport Equity Assessment (TEA)
www.teacost.eu
Integral assessment: the three spheres of
sustainability
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Outline
Land-Use / Transport Interaction (LUTI) models:
overview and aims
Integral assessment of sustainable transport
policies
An application to Rome (Italy) of integral analysis to
assess the sustainability of different form of
integrated urban and transport deveopment
Urban form, travel behavior and sustainability
The debate on what impacts on cities sustainability do have
a particular urban form , density threshold or activities
distribution still undergoing (Jenks and Jones, 2010;
Echenique et al., 2012)
Three specific urban structures have been studied mostly in
literature:
Compact development
Urban Sprawl
TOD (Transit Oriented Development)
Studies dealing with the influence of urban form on travel
behavior provide ambivalent results
Urban form, travel behavior and sustainability
Sustainable Unsustainable
Compact
Limiting land consumption Traffic congestion and their
Reducing travelled distances environmental impacts
Increasing accessibility Gentrification
Polycentric urban form
Social exclusion
( e.g. Newman and Kenworthy, 1999; Nss, ( e.g. Breheny, 1997; de Roo and Miller
2013) 2000)
Increasing public transport use Increasing land and property prices
Reducing car use
TOD
Stimulating non-motorized travel
( e.g. Cervero et al., 2002)
(e.g. Chatman, 2013)
Reducing density in congested area Increasing travelled distances and their
Sprawl
Balancing property market environmental impacts
Inducing auto-oriented lifestyles
Land consumption
Higher urban management costs
( e.g. Burchell et al. 1998 )
(e.g. Westerink et al. 2013)
Application to the study case of Rome
The study area (1)
2.8 million inhabitants (1,285.3 km2)
1.1 millions jobs
552,000 commuting trips in the morning peak hour
Strongly mono-centric urban form
Population and activities mainly located along radial roads
Population density Jobs density
Application to the study case of Rome
The study area (2)
Two radial metro lines 36 km with a
single interchange in Termini central
station
Seven regional rail lines connect the
surrounding urban areas to the city
center
Very high level of car ownerships (>
0.7 cars/persons)
Highly congested road network
Access restriction in the city center
Application to the study case of Rome
The methodology
Existing city plans,
data, assumptions SCENARIO SETTING
LUTI Models SIMULATION
Economic,
Environmental ASSESSMENT
and Social MoEs
Scenarios setting
Reference scenario : the City Master Plan (CMP)
Centralit # jobs
Polycentric development of Rome acilia madonnetta 8 790
to decongest the city centercentralit alitalia magliana 2 458
cesano anagnina romanina 8 823
Regional
bufalotta 11 156
railways
New dense business districtsMetro
( cesano 1 753
la storta euro sud 8 125
nuove centralit) connected to bufalotta
saxa rubra
fiumicino magliana 2 798
the urban railways pietralata
polo tecnologico la storta 3 688
massimina 3 987
ostiense 6 905
Integration between urban plans
p.te di nona lunghe
massimina
torre spaccata
p.te di nona lunghe 6 609
pietralata 10 465
of delocalization/urban-
alitalia magliana
ostiense
tor vergata
polo tecnologico 22 981
anagnina romanina
regeneration and the transports
fiumicino magliana
euro sud castellacc
ponte mammolo 1 504
saxa rubra 2 506
investments tor vergata 16 244
acilia madonnetta
torre spaccata 3 125
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Location of the new business districts (Centralit) Total 122 577
Scenarios setting
Reference scenario : the City Master Plan (CMP)
New residential and commercial Investments on urban road and
floor space public transport networks
+ 76 km di metro
+ 11.6 million mq2 floor space + 94 stations
Scenarios setting
Assumptions on urban development:
total floor space development same as CMP, but
different spatial distribution
Compact scenario TOD scenarios Sprawl scenario
Clustering of high density Activities clustering around Market-led dispersal of mainly
areas in the most central rail and metro station residential activities in the
location of the city catchment areas urban peripheral areas
Scenarios setting
Assumptions on transport network development:
CMP Network Partial Network
Including project already funded
- Line B1 (Bologna-Conca dOro)
- Line C ( up to S.Giovanni stop)
- new Light Rail/Tram lines
Scenarios setting
8 scenarios of future urban development
Different transport network
Base network
Partial network Complete network
(2011)
Base scenario (2011) BS
Different distribution
City Master Plan CMP CMP_P CMP_C
of activities
Compact COMPACT_P COMPACT_C
Sprawl SPRAWL_P SPRAWL_C
TOD_A_P
TOD
TOD_B_C
Scenario simulation: LUTI models
LUTI model simulating the impacts of changing accessibility on the spatial
distribution of residential and economic activity as well as on dwelling prices
Coppola P, Nuzzolo A (2011) Changing accessibility, dwelling price and the spatial distribution of socio-
economic activities. Research in Transportation Economics. 31, (1), 63-71
Assessment: Measures of Effectiveness
Transport and Economic-efficiency
Polycentric urban form
Number of trip by modes and modal share
Travel times and cost by modes
Investment and management costs
Environment
Pollutant emission
Transport Energy consumption
Land consumption
Equity and Social Inclusion
Social distribution of economic benefits
Social distribution of externalities
Access to jobs and services
Housing prices
.
Results
Partial network
Results
CMP network
Results in synthesis
Urban development forms have found to differ in their sustainability
Mobility indicator cannot be conclusive in a transport land use planning
support tool and should be accompanied by accessibility and social
analyses
Compact development appears to better off others form of spatial
development, for the mono-centric case study of Rome
however, compact development might induce increased urban
congestion level and increased dwelling prices in some areas of the city,
which could create social exclusion and segregation of peripheral areas
Conclusions
LUTI models are fundamental:
- to better forecast the demand in medium-long term
- to carry out Integral assessment of transport policies
LUTI models allows wider economic factors to be accounted
for capturing land value, agglomeration and productivity
benefits more explicitly
LUTI and Accessibility allow to assess social impacts of
transport policies
LUTI offers opportunity for Land Use planning and Transport
planning to interact
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Issues and Challenges
Developing a Land Use model is data hungry but
perhaps datasets are improving, and processing power
making this easier
Validation of Land Use Model results is not straightforward,
as with Transport Models
LUTI ought to capture the link between accessibility to
participation into activities to improve transport equity
assessment and better forecast induced demand
Thanks for your attention!
Pierluigi Coppola
[email protected]
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