Mechanics, Energy, Environment

Prevailing Energy Crisis in Pakistan

FARAH HAYAT, Dr DANIAL PIRZADA
DEPARTMENT OF ENG MGT
CENTER FOR ADVANCE STUDIES IN ENGINEERING (CASE)
ISLAMABD PAKISTAN
[email protected]

Abstract: - Pakistan is facing severe energy crisis since 2007 and deepened in 2010 in spite of the fact that
nature has blessed Pakistan with enormous energy potential. Short fall of electricity supply in the country is
increasing and has been reached to 21000 MW. A broad review of Pakistans energy sector is presented in this
paper. Energy potential and major issues of energy sector are discussed. Issues like poor management,
combined cycle capacity, low hydro power share, circular debt and energy security have been covered. Energy
potential assessment includes hydro solar, wind, coal, nuclear, hydrogen cells, geo-thermal, ocean resources
and bio mass.

Key-Words: - FATA Federal Administrative Tribal Areas, Azad Jammu and Kashmir

1 Introduction consumers are under heavy burden of electricity

Adequate availability of energy is the pre-requisite charges, industries are facing closure, national
and lifeline for sustained economic growth of a economy even reached bankruptcy, and WAPDA is
country Zaleski (2001). Pakistan is endowed with still paying billions of dollars to Independent Power
enormous potentials of energy and natural resources Producers (IPPs). Even today there are millions of
like abundant water, variety of mineral resources people in Pakistan without electricity and many
and divergent terrain. Unfortunately these resources millions more for whom the electricity consumption
have not been fully exploited to meet the energy is not more that a light bulb.
requirements of the country. As a result, today the All this is happening in a country, that has abundant
country is facing acute energy crisis, affecting water resources with an estimated potential of
almost all spheres of national life either it is the 35000 MW of electricity and vast reserves of natural
industrial sector, agriculture or the social life. The gas and coal which if properly utilized can help in
growth of economy coupled with high population generating sufficient electricity to meet our
growth rate and rising urbanization has outpaced the requirements for years to come Pakistan Energy
stagnant energy sector in the country, stretching the Year Book, (2005).
available energy resources to the limits. Inadequate
institutional framework, financial constraints and
high costs of developing new power projects 2 Prevalent Energy Crisis in Pakistan
resulted in stagnation in growth of this vital aspect Pakistan, with untapped hydroelectric resources of
of national life Andrews (2005). However lack of about 50,000 megawatts (MW), has been short of
attention and focus of successive governments is the electricity for over two decades, which has been
single most glaring reason for the present state of further compounded by a severe water shortage for
affairs. the last three years. Over 40 per cent of the
The neglect of develop power sector is evident from population is still without electricity whereas those
the fact that it took us twenty five years after fortunate enough to have electricity have to bear the
Tarbela, to construct Ghazi Barotha Power Project. escalating costs of consumption beyond their
Pakistan as a result faced acute shortage of electrical economic means.
energy in eighties resulting into long periods of load Pakistan is a developing country of approximately
shedding seriously disrupting the economic and 181.3 million people and is facing acute energy
industrial activity. In order to meet the growing shortage. In 2010, it had to import 21.64 MTOE of
demand, a number of thermal power plants in energy in order to fulfill its primary
private and public sector were constructed in mid- energy requirement of 63.09 MTOE. Short
nineties World Bank Report (2005). We did manage fall of electricity supply in the country is increasing
to overcome one evil but faced many more. As of with demand and has been recorded up to 4522 MW
today, despite being surplus in electricity, the cost in 2010 for many times of year. This deficit reached
has become unbearable for the domestic and to 7000 MW in May, 2011. The Gross Domestic
commercial users alike. Resultantly, the domestic Product (GDP) growth has fallen sharply from 3.8%

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in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011 whereas the inflation rate in of WAPDAs power system is 9,945 MW (hydel
the country has risen from 10.1% to 13.7% during 4,825 MW and thermal 5,120 MW), excluding 1735
the same period. MW capacity of KESC1. The maximum computed
demand in the country is 8,825 MW, excluding
Furtherer more, limited natural gas supplies to export to KESC. If included, the maximum
domestic and industrial users, has intensified the computed demand is 9,165 MW2 indicating
severity of the energy crisis. In 2010, the indigenous approximately 800 MW of surplus generation
oil and gas production was 64,948 Barrels/day and capacity. Despite being surplus in electricity
4,063 Mcft/day respectively. According to Hydro generation, WAPDA has to purchase 3,771 MW of
Carbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP), electricity from HUBCO, KAPCO and other IPPs
the balance reserves of oil and gas by ending June under the power purchase agreements with these
2010 were 41.13 MTOE and 498.70 MTOE IPPs.

Furthermore, limited natural gas supplies to

domestic and industrial users, has intensified the 2.3 Effects of IPPs
severity of the energy crisis. In 2010, the indigenous In the mid-nineties, The then Government, under its
oil and gas production was 64,948 Barrels/day and controversial power policy, signed Power Purchase
4,063 Mcft/day respectively Agreements with 18 power projects having a total
capacity of 5816 MW including KAPCO (1621
According to Hydro Carbon Development Institute MW) and HUBCO (1292 MW)3. Under these
of Pakistan (HDIP), the balance reserves of oil and agreements, WAPDA had to purchase a fixed
gas by ending June 2010 were 41.13 MTOE and percentage of the installed capacity regardless of the
498.70 MTOE respectively. If the demand and demand at highly unfavorable rates, causing severe
supply remains unchanged, it can be calculated that economic crisis not only for WAPDA but also for
the known oil and gas reserves will exhaust in the nation as a whole.
nearly 13 and 16 years respectively Pakistan Energy The concessions given to these IPPs put WAPDA
Year Book, (2013). under lot of financial strain. If the problem of high
tariff is not addressed immediately then in next ten
years, WAPDA and KESC will have to pay $12
billion in capacity payment and $15 billion in
energy payments to 21 IPPs.
2.1 Supply vs Demand of Electricity
The effects of current energy crisis on the national
economy cannot be over emphasized. Pakistan 2.4 Lack of Development in Hydel Power
having being endowed with large indigenous Projects
hydropower resources has recently suffered a rapid In Pakistan, initially more than 60% electricity was
switch over to expensive thermal power, which has generated from water. Under the Indus Basin
caused a significant rise in tariff for consumers. The Treaty, two major dams/reservoirs were built for
ratio of hydel vs thermal power generation was water storage and hydel power generation at Mangla
about 60:40 in the sixties which has now reached and Tarbela. Over a period of time, the storage
38: 68 due to non-development of any new hydel capacity of these dams is being reduced due to
power project and commissioning of a large number natural silting. According to an estimate, by the end
of thermal power plants in mid-nineties Pakistan of year 2000, one-fifth capacity of these reservoirs
Energy Year Book (2005) Consequently, the has been lost. Besides silting, lack of water during
economy of the country had to suffer not only in winter and need to store water for irrigation also
energy sector but also significantly in agriculture badly affects the electricity generation (Sen, 2000)..
and industrial sectors Vahidi and Fesharaki (2002). As a result, it is necessary to back up the hydel
Moreover, due to drastic rise in tariff, major generation with thermal generation to meet the
consumers started to generate their own energy consumers demand in winters. Unfortunately, no
resources depriving WAPDA of its revenues.

2.2 Poor Power Planning

WAPDA and KESC are two major organizations for
power distribution in the country. The total capacity

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new dams or hydel power plants have been built, Luft, 2005a; Alexanders Gas and Oil Connections,
resulting in increased dependence upon thermal (2006).
power sources to meet the growing demands.

2.7 Construction of New Dams

2.5 Power Losses Since the construction of Mangla and Tarbela, over
two decades ago, no major hydel power project has
2.5.1 Transmission/Distribution Losses been undertaken in the country, baring a few small
A substantial quantity of electricity is lost during the hydel projects at Dargai, Shadiwal, Nandipur,
process of transmission and distribution. WAPDA is Kurram Garhi, Renala and Chitral. Only recently,
facing major problem due to its 41905 kms long Ghazi Barotha Power Project has been undertaken.
transmission lines, which connect national grid with Moreover, due to silting, the capacity of Mangla and
hydel stations located in north and thermal units Tarbela dams is reducing continuously,
installed mostly in the center and southern parts of necessitating construction of new dams. Kala Bagh
country. WAPDA suffers 11% losses due to high Dam could have met the growing demands of water
voltage transmission4. Besides transmission losses, storage and electricity generation if completed as
WAPDA also suffers heavy losses during per schedule by year 1998. However it became the
distribution. In 1997-98, distribution department victim of political expediency, despite its technical
was supplied 47,718 million units of electricity, of and economic feasibility ready since 1975. As a
which 29,422 million units were billed for showing result the nation has been deprived of 3600 MW of
loss in distribution of 8,296 million units or 15.6% cheap electricity besides other benefits in economy
of gross generation of 53,259 million units5. As per and agriculture.
World Bank standards, only 10-15% line losses due
to technical reasons are acceptable, whereas for
WAPDA, distribution losses alone are 15.6%. 2.8 Reliance on Thermal Power Generation
As already highlighted, persistent negligence
2.5.2 Power Theft towards development of new hydel power projects,
Besides transmission/distribution losses, WAPDA a serious short fall of electricity was experienced in
also faces electricity losses due to theft. Every year mid eighties resulting into long periods of load
11-12% of total generated electricity is being lost shedding, both for a domestic and commercial
due to theft. According to a report issued by the consumers (Luft, 2005b). In nineties, the situation
Army in July 1999, theft losses in first six months of assumed crisis proportions. Therefore, in order to
1998 were 11.1% whereas in 1999, during same meet the increased demand, the only option left was
period, it had reduced to 0.6%. Although, after the to construct thermal power projects, seriously
Army took over WAPDA in 1998, the situation has altering the accepted balance between hydel and
improved yet persistent efforts are still needed to thermal generation, besides huge impact on
curb this menace Akbarzadeh, (2003). financial health of WAPDA and national economy.
At present 32% of total generated electricity is
obtained through hydel and 68% through thermal
2.6 Electric Supply to FATA and AJK power plants (Luft, 2005b)
WAPDA is supplying subsidized electricity to
FATA and AJK. Additionally, tribal consumers do
not pay the bills to WAPDA. Army report published
in July 1999, indicates that out of total dues of Rs. 2.9 Consumers
2.94 billion, FATA paid only Rs. 0.113 billion and The number of consumers has increased markedly
AJK paid Rs. 0.772 billion out of Rs. 4.968 billion as a result of rapid urbanization, extension of
electricity facility to un-electrified area and village
electrification programs run from time to time,
reaching a figure of 10.55 million by March 1999.
Annex B shows electricity consumption by
economic group since 1991 up to march 1999
Pandian, (2005). The consumption of electricity by
economic group identifies domestic group as the
largest consumer of electricity accounting for 42.52
% of total consumption followed by industrial group

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25.94 %, agriculture group 15.57, bulk supply & Presently, USA is generating about 20% of its
public lightening 11.29%, commercial group 4.6% electricity using nuclear energy, France 78%, and
and traction 0.04% (Alexanders Gas Belgium 60%. Pakistan is only producing 0.03%
and Oil Connections 2006). electricity by two units located at Karachi and
Chashma.
Though, Pakistan has made good progress in the
3 AVAILABLE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE nuclear field but still dependent on developed
POWER GENERATION countries for reactors and its components. These
Major sources of energy in Pakistan consist of oil, countries by no means are willing to provide the
gas, petroleum products, coal and electricity. Until reactors which are suitable for generation of cheap
few years back Pakistan used to get half of its electricity (Edwards, 2003). Pakistan Atomic
electricity from hydel power and remaining from Energy Commission has developed a fairly large
thermal generation. Over the past few years, thermal infrastructure, which is capable of manufacturing
capacity has more than doubled including about large mechanical equipment and components for
5000 MW from IPPs. Efforts are going on to regain power and process plants. It is hoped that the day
hydel-thermal synergistic balance by exploiting the will come in near future, when Pakistan will be
large untapped hydel potential (Ryoichi, 2005). manufacturing and installing its own reactors to
overcome the shortage of energy.

3.1 Hydel Energy

Pakistan has a potential of at least 35000 MW of 3.4 Coal
hydel power still waiting to be harnessed on the Estimated reserves of coal in the country are 185
main rivers and another approximately 10,000 MW Billion Tons, which includes 175 billion tons of
on the side valleys/streams. In addition to this high Thar coal fields, the worlds largest coal reserves.
head potential in the mountainous areas, there is The production of coal is still stagnant, as no
another 550 MW of low head potential in the plains demand has been created for coal consumption.
on existing canals and barrages. However, this vast Presently, only 9% of total coal production is being
energy potential is presently not being developed. utilized for power generation. Recently, an
There is a definite need to streamline the agreement has been signed with China to develop
development of hydropower in Pakistan. Presently, the Thar Coal Fields. Planning is in hand, and this
the total storage capacity of existing dams and lakes vast reservoir of energy will be utilized to meet the
is 17.1 million-acre foot (MAF) with generation future needs.
capacity of 4722 MW. The estimated power 3.5 Potentials of Solar Energy in Pakistan
potential of River Indus and its tributaries is about Pakistan lies within the tropical latitude of about 23-
13070 MW. The need is to realize the importance of 37 degree north, longitudinal stretch across 61-75.60
the crisis and the exploitation of the available cheap degree east. A dry climate, with low rainfall and
hydel resources. rigidity prevails over major parts of the country.
Physically, Pakistan has a diversified land relief.
About 60% of the total land is mountainous terrain
3.2 Other Sources of Power Generation and the remaining 40% presents a flat and graduated
Despite the fact that hydel and thermal are two main surface. The geographical location, topography and
sources of power generation, however, there is a local climate, place the country among the most
limit to the extent of exploitation of hydel resources favored regions for solar energy utilization. The
as well as thermal power plants due to main features of development in the field of solar
environmental and other concerns (Salameh, 2003). power are:-
To meet the growing demands there is a need to a) Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
explore and develop other forms of electricity (PAEC) initiated research and development
generation which can supplement hydel and thermal work in the late sixties. In recent past
power generation. Nuclear, solar, Biomass and wind National University of Science and
energy, are the few other means which have little Technology (NUST) has also carried out
received little or no attention. considerable research and development in
this field.
b) The electronic division of PAEC has
3.3 Nuclear Energy in Pakistan developed solar cookers, solar water pumps

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for irrigation, solar water chillers, and solar a) Low lead times to install and commission.
vegetables. b) Less capital intensive.
c) A solar energy desalination plant was put up c) Very less operational cost.
in Gawadar which is producing 5000 d) No environmental concerns.
gallons of water per day since 1972. e) Coastline provides ample sites for large
d) Several Television / telecommunication scale windmill installation.
booster stations, located in remote areas, are Windmill generators though, technologically
being powered by solar panels. complex can be developed indigenously, especially
In addition to economic considerations, there are through reverse engineering with the expertise
number of other factors which serve to increase the available.
attractiveness of solar energy use in Pakistan to
varying degree. Some major advantages favoring
use of solar energy for power generation are:- 4 Recommendations
a) Ideal for remote areas with scattered habitat. Fortunately, WAPDAs Vision 2025 was
b) Ample sunshine. announced during the compilation of this paper. As
c) Unattended system operations. already discussed, although ambitious, yet it is the
d) Low operational and maintenance cost. only solution to the clear and present danger, the
e) Environmental friendly. nation faces in the water and energy sector. The
Government of Pakistan and WAPDA have realized
the gravity of the situation and chalked out the
3.6 Prospects of Biomass Energy in Pakistan strategy to overcome the crisis before it is too late.
Biomass resources in Pakistan are mostly used for The programme has addressed most of the
community cooking and heating. Availability of recommendations naturally emerging out of this
Biomass resource on a massive scale would be study in a comprehensive manner. Few additional
required for any sizeable power production. This recommendations suggested by the panel are as
does not exist at present in Pakistan. In early 80s an under:-
effort was made at government level to construct 55
Biogas plants for the small villages. However after a
lot of publicity in the media, the project was 4.1 Formulation of National Energy Policy
abandoned for unknown reasons making no further The present situation in the energy sector is the
progress. manifestation of lack of foresight, planning and
Pakistan being an agricultural country has a attention to this vital aspect of national life. There is
reasonable amount of livestock in rural areas. Even therefore a need to formalize the planning process in
in urban towns, large, although scattered, farms of energy sector so that our energy needs are met in
cattle are there primarily for supply of fresh milk. In time in a most efficient and economical manner. It is
Karachi alone there is a huge cattle colony which therefore recommended that a National Energy
serves the whole population of over 15 million. Policy be worked out under a constitutional
With little effort, the huge amount of animal waste framework to regulate and plan the energy sector in
can be utilized for electricity generation, albeit at a future. The salient of the energy policy dealing with
smaller scale, for domestic or community use at the electricity generation are:-
same time solving the waste disposal problem. a) Establishing targets for development of
power sector vs projected demand.
b) Determination of guidelines for hydel and
3.7 Prospects of Wind Energy in Pakistan thermal power generation and other power
Pakistan fortunately has good wind power generation sources like nuclear, solar, wind
potentials. Its coastline and mountainous region and other unconventional means.
provide ideal locations to site windmills. Similarly Establishment of a national body to resolve political
the wind flow patterns in the plains during the issues/controversies related to construction of dams.
monsoon and the winter anticyclone winds can
provide economically feasible power. The UNDP
and the Economic Affairs Division of the 4.2 Exploration of Power Generation Potential
government of Pakistan have agreed on a feasibility Continues studies and research be undertaken by
study for a large-scale wind power project along the WAPDA, Ministry of Water and Power as well as
Makran Coast. The project, coat is $ 471,000. Ministry of Science and Technology to explore the
Some of the advantages of windmill generation are:- power generation potential of rivers, streams and

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canals, in addition to those already identified in Moreover subsidies and tax concessions be
Vision 2025. This will enable us to plan for our provided for import of machinery and
energy needs beyond year 2025. For this purpose, equipment for setting up Biogas power
feasibility projects be undertaken by engineering plants in private sector.
universities and foreign/domestic consultants. As an
incentive some percentage of revenues be fixed as
royalty to the consultants, as and when the project is 4.4 Utilization of Indigenous Natural Resources
commissioned. a) In order to make use of vast natural gas and
recently discovered coal reserves in the
country, existing thermal power plants
4.3 Prioritization of Future Power Projects running on imported and expensive Furnace
Since Vision 2025 deals primarily with the water Oil be converted onto natural gas in first
management and development of hydel power step. Subsequently efforts be made to
generation, Ministry of Water and Power in convert the same on to coal.
consultation with WAPDA should set up policy b) To make our industries competitive,
guidelines for the development of future power feasibility of running heavy industries on
projects in other categories, by setting up mandatory locally available coal fired power plants be
percentages for each category to achieve a balance examined, as a cheap alternative to
mix as per accepted standards/trends:- expensive furnace oil
a) Thermal: Further thermal power plants are c) All new thermal power plants be run on
allowed keeping in view the accepted natural gas or locally available coal reserves
balance in hydel and thermal ratio. As such found in Thar.
increase in the hydel power generation as a
result of Vision 2025, would allow setting
up of new thermal power plants keeping the 4.5 Private Sector Contribution
balance within limits. To meet the financial cost of Vision 2025, private
b) Nuclear: Since Pakistan has attained investment, both local and foreign be encouraged in
reasonable expertise and capability in the form of tax incentives, to set up small and
military nuclear programme, there is a great medium scale hydel power plants on the sites
prospect now for using the same for identified in the programme. Similarly, option for
peaceful utilisation. Pakistan Atomic allowing big industrial units to have their own
Energy Commission and KRL in electrical power plants is also explored.
collaboration with China must focus on the
development of a nuclear reactor for power
generation so that the country becomes self- 4.5 Resolution of Kalabagh Issue
sufficient in this field and meet our vital This vital project appears to be on a lower priority in
energy needs. the vision 2025 due to obvious reasons. Concerted
c) Wind: Setting up of wind driven power efforts are undertaken to resolve the political
plants especially along the coastline by local controversies related to the Kalabagh Dam issue.
or foreign private investors. Subsequently Aggressive media campaign, seminars and technical
the development and manufacture of wind literature are utilized to satisfy the opponents. If
generators be undertaken indigenously with needed, minor modifications in design should still
the help of DESTO, Pakistan Aeronautical be incorporated to settle the objections. It is
Complex Kamra. pertinent to mention that present government, being
d) Solar: Solar energy should be utilized for free from political compulsions is ideally suited to
power generation on local scale especially resolve the issue.
in sunshine rich areas of Southern Punjab,
Balochistan and Upper Sind.
e) Bio Mass: Biogas energy be utilized for 4.6 Review of Tariffs
power generation in agricultural areas of a) Tariff Disparity: At present there is a
Punjab, Sind and NWFP. For this purpose, large disparity between domestic and
Ministry of Science and Technology and industrial/commercial consumers on
National University of Science and electricity. As a result, the industrial and
Technology (NUST) should undertake pilot commercial users are facing higher
projects in co-operation with private sector. production costs, lack of competitiveness

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