CH 1

Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter One
Introduction
1-1 General
The number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can be predicted to
travel on a specific segment of a transportation system under a variety of
land-use, social, economic, and environmental conditions is known as travel
demand. Travel demand forecasting predicts the number, type, source of
(origin and destination) of trips on a transportation network.
Traffic Demand Modeling helps government agencies to determine the base

case for the current traffic condition. In addition, the model expects future
demand for travel given predictions of future uses of the land, and
improvements of highway and transit.
These reasons become necessary to prepare the transfer of detailed studies

of the areas to identify the causes of these trips and then determine the origin
and destination of these trips for the purpose of building statistical models to
predict the movement of these trips, identifies where the trips will go, Decides
the origin-destination trips whether will be through a private vehicle or by
public transit and finally appoints peak hour trips to specific streets and
freeways.
1-2 Problem Definition

Al-Amarah city as many other Iraqi cities has no comprehensive published
studies in transportation planning, or traffic management plans taking into
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Chapter One
Introduction
account the annual growth in population, employment and car ownership,
which made the performance of daily activities , represent a burden increases
day after day.
Transportation engineers usually face the problem of how to reproduce

information from field survey. This process is to create predictive statistical
models that describe the behavior and relationship of the phenomenon under
consideration. Practically, it is not easy to develop a model from field data,
because the reality that many phenomena are non-linear and/or collinear or it
is a difficult to derive a model.
1-3 Research Objectives
The current study is designed to include the following objectives for Al-
Amarah city:-
1. Collection the social, economic and travel variables that cause

the need for the trip.
2. Developing predicted models for trip generation of Al-

Amarah city using the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
technique.
3. Developing gravity models for distributing the generated trips

from each TAZ to every other TAZ in the study area.
4. Developing discrete choice models for distributing the total

travel demand into two or more travel mode categories.
5. Determining the expected traffic volumes on each highway

segment and assigned them to the actual links that will be
used in the highway network.
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Chapter One
Introduction
1-4 Research Methodology
To achieve the research aims, an outline framework is planned to include
the needs of data collection. The method of data collection is divided into
home interview survey and questionnaire. An adequate questionnaire sheet is
designed to cover almost all the variables that might affect the requirements
for transport. These questionnaires are distributed to secondary schools and
colleges to students by hand.
The current study is designed to include the following stages to build the
travel demand models:
Collecting the socioeconomic, travel and educational variables using

home interview and questionnaires form that initiate the need to make a
trip.
Develop and evaluating the trip generation models for Al-Amarah city
using MLR technique.
Estimate the friction factors based on estimated or current travel times.

Then, develop the gravity models to distribute the productions and
attractions trips generated in trip generation step from each TAZ to
every other TAZ in the study area.
Develop the Multinomial Logit (MNL) models and distributing the

total travel demand in two (Auto and Bus) travel mode categories.
Calculate the expected traffic volumes on each highway segment and

assigned trips for each O-D pair to the shortest path from each origin to
all destinations then determine the actual links that will be used in the
highway network.
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Chapter One
Introduction
1-5 Thesis Structure
;This study contains five chapters as shown below
1. Chapter one; shows problem definition, the objectives and the research
methodology.
2. Chapter two; presents review of the urban transportation planning

process details, and some useful survey methods for data collection.
Moreover, brief descriptions of urban transportation planning studies
for some cities in Iraq are included and description of local
mathematical models is presented.
3. Chapter three; contains historical background of Al-Amarah city, its

location and general social economic characteristics of its population
are also presented. Moreover, the required data to achieve the research
objectives are included.
4. Chapter four; deals with the detailed analysis of the collected data and
category analysis. In addition to, development of mathematical models
for trip generation using two techniques are presented.
5. Chapter five; deals with the detailed analysis of the trip distribution
process is commonly divided into two steps. The first step includes the
friction factors calculation based on estimated or current travel times.
The second step consists of the distribution of productions and
attractions trips generated in chapter four using the gravity model.
6. Chapter six; includes the analysis of mode choice process by

developing the Multinomial Logit (MNL) models and distributing the
total travel demand into two (Auto and Bus) travel mode categories.
4
Chapter One
Introduction
7. Chapter seven; consists the calculation of the expected traffic volumes

on each highway segment and assigned trips for each O-D pair to the
shortest path from each origin to all destinations then determine the
actual links that will be used in the highway network.
8. Chapter eight; presents the obtained conclusions, recommendations and

recommendations for further research.

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Chapter One

Traffic Demand Modeling helps government agencies to determine the base

These reasons become necessary to prepare the transfer of detailed studies

1-2 Problem Definition

Transportation engineers usually face the problem of how to reproduce

1-3 Research Objectives

1. Collection the social, economic and travel variables that cause

2. Developing predicted models for trip generation of Al-

3. Developing gravity models for distributing the generated trips

4. Developing discrete choice models for distributing the total

5. Determining the expected traffic volumes on each highway

Collecting the socioeconomic, travel and educational variables using

Estimate the friction factors based on estimated or current travel times.

Develop the Multinomial Logit (MNL) models and distributing the

Calculate the expected traffic volumes on each highway segment and

2. Chapter two; presents review of the urban transportation planning

3. Chapter three; contains historical background of Al-Amarah city, its

6. Chapter six; includes the analysis of mode choice process by

7. Chapter seven; consists the calculation of the expected traffic volumes

8. Chapter eight; presents the obtained conclusions, recommendations and

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