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Binomial Distribution 0101

The document discusses a binomial probability problem involving playing a game 80 times with a 0.45 probability of winning each game. It then (a) calculates that the most likely number of wins is 36 and (b) determines that the mean is 36 and the variance is 19.8 for a binomial distribution with parameters p=0.45 and N=80.

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Raju Chaudhari
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
172 views1 page

Binomial Distribution 0101

The document discusses a binomial probability problem involving playing a game 80 times with a 0.45 probability of winning each game. It then (a) calculates that the most likely number of wins is 36 and (b) determines that the mean is 36 and the variance is 19.8 for a binomial distribution with parameters p=0.45 and N=80.

Uploaded by

Raju Chaudhari
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem

The probability that you will win a game is 0.45. (a) If you play the game 80 times, what is the most likely
number of wins? (b) What are the mean and variance of a binomial distribution with p = 0.45 and N = 80?

Solution

Here X denote the number of wins out of N = 80 games.


The probability that you will win a game is p = 0.45.
The probability mass function of X is
 
80
P (X = x) = (0.45)x (1 0.45)80x , x = 0, 1, , 80.
x

(a) The most likely number of wins is the value of X at which the probability mass function P (X = x)
becomes maximum. The most likely value of X is called the mode.
For Binomial distribution B(N, p), if m = (N + 1) p is an integer then there are two mode at (m 1) and
m, but if m = (N + 1) p is not an integer then there is a single mode at bmc.
We have (N + 1) p = (80 + 1) 0.45 = 36.45, which is not an integer. Hence there is a single mode and it is
at bmc = b36.45c = 36. Thus the most likely number of wins is 36.
(b) Mean and Variance
Mean of Binomial distribution B(N, p) is N p and variance of Binomial distribution is N p (1 p).

mean = N p
= 80 0.45
= 36

Variance = N p (1 p)
= 80 0.45 (1 0.45)
= 19.8

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