Recommendations for the post-2015 development

framework

According to the United Nations, over the past

twenty years disasters from natural hazards have Whilst all countries suffer disasters, they have the
affected 4.4 billion people, claimed 1.3 million greatest impact on poor countries. For example,
lives and caused $2 trillion in economic losses. 86 per cent of deaths from flooding occur in low
For the first time, disaster losses globally have or low-middle income countries, compared with
topped $100bn for three consecutive years ten per cent in upper middle and four per cent in
(20102012), far outstripping humanitarian aid.1 high income countries.6 And whilst absolute
According to Ban Ki Moon, Economic losses from financial losses are higher in developed countries,
disasters are out of control.2 they take a deeper toll in developing countries
Disasters have a devastating impact on the East Japan earthquake in 2011 was one of
development. Families lose homes, livelihoods the most expensive disasters in history, costing
and loved ones, communities lose businesses, around $200bn, equivalent to three per cent of
jobs and services, children and particularly girls Japans GDP; the 2010 earthquake in Haiti is
miss school and are at risk of early marriage the estimated to have cost $14bn, equivalent to 160
list of impacts goes on. per cent of Haitis GDP.
Disasters can cancel progress on poverty
reduction.3 This was certainly the experience in
the Philippines, struck in 2009 by tropical storm We must stop calling events like
Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng. Rizal, one of the these [Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda] as
provinces hit hardest, saw the poverty incidence
natural disasters. Disasters are
almost double, from 5.5 per cent in 2006 to 9.5
per cent in 2009. Six years later, recovery was never natural. They are the
still far off, with 7.6 per cent of families still below intersection of factors other than
the poverty line.4 Typhoon Haiyan, which hit one physical. They are the accumulation
of the poorest areas of the Philippines, is likely to of the constant breach of economic,
have a similar impact. social and environmental thresholds.
The drive for economic growth can expose Yeb Sano, Philippines UNFCCC
countries to more risk5 cities can be engines of negotiator, 2013
growth, but unplanned urbanisation exposes
many people to risk. Flood destruction in parts of
Asia and Central America has been significantly The concept of leaving no one behind is a
exacerbated by major development new hotels, powerful one, and requires a focus on equality
roads, and dams in fragile ecological systems. and specific investments for marginalised people.
In this way, disasters can reveal the boundaries Disaster risk is not shared equally between rich
and limits to development. and poor. People are vulnerable because they
are politically, socially or economically
The development challenge posed by disaster excluded, with little access to resources,
risks is starting to be recognised, with increasing influence, information or decision making.
reference to disasters across policy arenas, such
as the Busan partnership on aid effectiveness, Poverty and inequality often push people to live
the Rio20 outcome document, the G20 agenda in on the margins, in places that are risky, such as
2012, an IPCC Special Report, the latest World alongside rivers, floodplains, marginal land and
Bank report on Managing Risk for Development hillsides. This perpetuates a vicious cycle of
and the recent UNFCCC decision to establish an disaster, debt and destitution.
international mechanism on loss and damage.
 people it is the relentless attrition of frequent
small-scale disasters (called extensive), such as
Weve only harvested four sacks of localised floods, landslides and storms that
millet this year, compared with the 20 damage livelihoods, houses and assets and
we can get in a normal year. But its a drives people further into poverty. They are
long time since we had a normal year. responsible for a very significant proportion of
Last year, the floods destroyed much total disaster impact: 54 per cent of houses
damaged, 80 per cent of people affected, 83 per
of the harvest. We go from one
cent of people injured, yet people receive little or
catastrophe to another, either because no government support or external assistance.9
of too much water or too little.
Ramata Zore, Burkina Faso, 2012
Disasters are not inevitable. The way that
Women often face higher risks personally and governments manage and regulate both public
also have to shoulder the burden of managing and private investment will determine the degree
them on behalf of their families eating last and of hazard, exposure to those hazards and
least in times of food crisis, caring for injured and vulnerability of people and property. Disaster risk
sick members of the family. Women do not reduction (DRR) measures are proven to be both
always get the same access to early warning highly effective and highly cost effective.
information as men, due to their caring role and Cyclone Phailin, which hit the Indian state of
lower levels of literacy. Other vulnerable people Odisha in October 2013, provided a clear
include the young, old, people with disabilities, example of successful DRR: 12 million people
and those marginalised by ethnicity or caste. were affected, nearly one million people were
Their systematic marginalisation means they are evacuated, and there were 27 casualties. The
often less able to participate in and influence small number of deaths is testament to good
disaster prevention or management of key government planning and response. Other
processes, yet they often have major capacities countries that prioritise disaster management
and skills to support risk reduction. Indeed, where have had similar impressive results. Casualties in
supported, womens groups have demonstrated Bangladesh have been greatly reduced by an
their effectiveness in reducing household and effective early warning system, a nationwide
community risks and vulnerability. programme to build shelters from only 12
shelters in 1970 to over 2,500 in 2007 coastal
Disasters are an increasing problem protection and raising awareness at community
level.10
The incidence of disasters from natural hazards is
increasing in every region of the world; reported
weather-related disasters have tripled in 30
years.7 The numbers of people exposed to floods In 1992, all our houses were completely
and tropical cyclones have doubled and tripled destroyed. This time the houses
respectively since 1970.8 In the Sahel region of werent all destroyed, even though the
West Africa, a food crisis used to strike once a level of floodwater was higher, because
decade; but there have been three major food we were prepared. This year, we were
crises in the last 10 years, so people have had more careful we kept all our assets
little time to get back on their feet, let alone and carried them to the emergency
develop buffers, before the next one hits. shelter, and we made embankments
One very important driver of disaster risk is climate around the houses to stop the water from
change. The latest IPCC report is clear that the coming.
climate is changing, with serious consequences.
Another driver of disaster risk is population growth Syeda, South Punjab, Pakistan, 2010
and migration. In particular, cities concentrate risk
through high population density, inadequate urban And it is no secret that reducing the risk of
planning, and poor infrastructure. Problems are disasters is cost-effective too. While it is too
particularly acute in slums, where around one simplistic to assume an overarching cost benefit
billion people currently live, and this number is ratio (often quoted are 1:4 or 1:7), many studies
projected to double by 2030. have shown that appropriate prevention pays. For
International focus is often on major disasters that example, improving weather forecasting and
hit the headlines. But the reality is that for poor public communication systems to provide earlier
warning of disasters in developing countries could DRR in the post-2015 development
yield benefits 4 to 36 times greater than the
cost.11 Studies of flood defences in India and
framework debate so far
Samoa found that people-centred interventions The Millennium Declaration included a somewhat
such as raised houses and fodder storage, indistinct commitment to resolve to intensify
early warning, flood shelters, community seed cooperation to reduce the number and effects of
banks, self help groups etc. were better value natural and man-made disasters but this did not
for money than costly embankments.12 translate into a disasters goal, target or indicator
in the MDGs, thereby divorcing disaster
DRR benefits are not being reaped management from broader development goals.
The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) a global Disaster risk reduction was a strong feature in the
commitment made in 2005 to reduce disaster Rio20 outcome document. This called for
losses has encouraged a more systematic and disasters to be addressed with a renewed sense
pre-emptive approach to disaster risk of urgency in the context of sustainable
management. But addressing disaster risk development and poverty eradication, and, as
separately from core frameworks like the MDGs appropriate, to be integrated into policies, plans,
has perpetuated its isolation and limited its impact. programmes and budgets at all levels and
considered within relevant future frameworks.
In most governments, disaster risk management The document also called for stronger action on
is undertaken by a standalone agency. It is DRR: in urban contexts; in relation to food
therefore divorced from mainstream concerns, security; for small-island developing states
such as stimulating economic growth, boosting particularly affected by climate change; on early
employment and managing food prices, or in the warning systems and comprehensive hazard and
case of local governments; supplying water, risk assessments; and in terms of increased
power, transport and waste management. Yet funding and stronger integration into public and
these activities are not risk neutral; done well, private investment and the aid sector.
they can reduce disaster risk, but undertaken with
little consideration of risk, they can exacerbate Almost all key inputs to the development of the
vulnerabilities. post-2015 framework have recognised the role of
disasters on poverty, pointing to disaster risk
The failure of governments to adequately reduction as an important objective. The High
prioritise and invest in good risk management of Level Panel report on the post-2015 development
disasters whether from natural or man-made agenda includes a target to Build resilience and
hazards across all areas of work is the biggest reduce disaster mortality by x per cent under
driver of disaster risk. Goal 1 to End Poverty; the UN Sustainable
Disaster risk reduction is often poorly funded. Development Solutions Network report to the UN
Whilst some governments including Indonesia, Secretary General includes DRR in urban and
Mexico, Guatemala, and Bangladesh have rural goals; and the Secretary Generals report on
made considerable investments, many countries the MDGs identifies disasters in the 15
struggle to find sufficient resources and capacity. transformative and mutually reinforcing actions
This is partly because the deep extent of losses is required, in relation to poverty, climate change
not understood, as disaster losses are not and environment.
properly accounted for, as well as lack of political
visibility for DRR measures.
In terms of international aid, DRR spending is
We know that every time a crisis hits, 80
extremely low; only 0.4 per cent of total aid. Only
three donors have reached or surpassed the per cent of the most affected come from
commitment made in 2009 to spend one per cent the 20 per cent poorest, most vulnerable
of development aid on DRR: Australia, Canada, people; these people with the least
and Japan.13 A recent report finds that much DRR access to the corridors of power.
funding is focused on a few countries, with very Kristalina Georgieva,
little funding for drought, it is often available only EU Humanitarian Commissioner, 2012
post-disaster, and with greater volumes of
financing available where the economy is at risk;
whereas volumes are often low when
predominantly populations are at risk.14
Recommendations for DRR in the The need for a coherent response
post-2015 development framework across policy arenas
Ending absolute poverty should be the priority Sustainable and significant reduction of disaster
for the post-2015 development goals and this risk can only be achieved by working across
requires a strong commitment to reduce policy frameworks. The development of the post-
disaster risks, otherwise development efforts 2015 development framework, the successor to
for the poorest will be unsustainable. the Hyogo Framework for Action, and a new
Unaddressed, the impacts of climate change and international climate change agreement, all in
disasters will place local and national progress 2015, offer an unparalleled opportunity to go
against development goals at risk. beyond the incremental progress to date, to
significantly reduce risk for vulnerable and
Member States negotiating the post-2015 marginalised people all over the world.
development goals must ensure that the
framework: As 2015 draws nearer and we enter the final
phase of consultations and negotiations, it is
Clearly addresses the role that risk and more important than ever that disaster reduction
disasters play in undermining is included in key frameworks in a meaningful and
development, particularly for the mutually-reinforcing way, in order to deliver
vulnerable; coherent DRR funding and action.
Includes a specific target to reduce At the UNFCCC, governments should agree
disaster risk; strong commitments to reduce carbon emissions,
Incorporates risk management indicators scale up adaptation financing and action to
across relevant goals for example, ensure future development is climate-proof, and
ensuring food security for all during and address the loss and damage incurred by
after disasters; ensuring access for all to affected states.
resilient healthcare infrastructure. The post-HFA DRR framework should be
A DRR target in the post-2015 goals should: strengthened and made fit for purpose in a world
of increasing risk, underpinned by principles of
be based primarily on outcome (such as equity, accountability, community-based
measurable reductions in risk or losses), resilience and integration, and collaboration
rather than only inputs (such as existence of across sectors.
legislation). This is because input targets do
not guarantee a reduction in risks; outcome
targets have more political traction; and detail REFERENCES
on inputs fits better in the post-HFA. 1 UNISDR (2013) Tackling future risks, economic losses and
exposure
measure the impact of extensive disasters 2 Statement at launch of Global Assistance Report, 15 May
as well as intensive ones, as recurrent small- 2013, New York
scale disasters are a key driver of poverty. 3 A Shepherd et al (2013) Geography of Poverty, Disasters
and Climate Extremes in 2030, ODI
require states to report data disaggregated by 4 Ibid
gender, ethnicity, age and other relevant 5 S Hallegatte (2012) An Exploration of the Link between
Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk
criteria to ensure that risk is reduced for 6 Doocy S et al (2013) The Human Impact of Floods: a
the most vulnerable. At a minimum, targets Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic
must be met for the lowest income quintile. Literature Review.
7 Oxfam (2011) Times Bitter Flood: Trends in the number of
require states to report data disaggregated reported natural disasters. Research report
to sub-national and community levels, to 8 UNISDR (2011) Global Assessment Report
ensure that discrepancies are not hidden by 9 Ibid
10 Haque et al (2011) Reduced death rates from cyclones in
national averages. Bangladesh: what more needs to be done? WHO Bulletin
11 World Bank (2013) Managing Risk for Development
Stimulate greater action to reduce
12 Oxfam America, Tearfund (2010) Cost benefit analysis for
underlying vulnerabilities (anticipatory or community based climate and disaster risk management
prospective risk management, such as active 13 Dan Sparks (2012). Aid investments in disaster risk
ecosystems and land use management) as reduction - rhetoric to action.
well as corrective risk management and 14 J Kellett and A Caravani (2013) Financing disaster risk
reduction: a 20 year story of international aid. ODI, GFDRR
disaster management (early warning systems,
contingency plans etc.).
This brief was written by Debbie Hillier, Oxfam and Katherine Nightingale, Christian Aid. December 2013

Oxfam International December 2013. Published by Oxfam GB for Oxfam International under ISBN 978-1-78077-526-5.
Oxfam GB, Oxfam House, John Smith Drive, Cowley, Oxford, OX4 2JY, UK.