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2
C H A P T E R

Probability Concepts and Applications

TEACHING SUGGESTIONS practical examples as heights or weights of students. But students

need to be reminded that even if most of the men in class (or the
Teaching Suggestion 2.1: Concept of Probabilities Ranging
United States) have heights between 5 feet 6 inches and 6 feet 2
From 0 to 1.
inches, there is still some small probability of outliers.
People often misuse probabilities by such statements as, Im
110% sure were going to win the big game. The two basic rules Teaching Suggestion 2.8: Bell-Shaped Curve.
of probability should be stressed. Stress how important the normal distribution is to a large number
of processes in our lives (for example, lling boxes of cereal with
Teaching Suggestion 2.2: Where Do Probabilities Come From? 32 ounces of cornakes). Each normal distribution depends on the
Students need to understand where probabilities come from. mean and standard deviation. Discuss Figures 2.8 and 2.9 to show
Sometimes they are subjective and based on personal experiences. how these relate to the shape and position of a normal distribution.
Other times they are objectively based on logical observations
such as the roll of a die. Often, probabilities are derived from his- Teaching Suggestion 2.9: Three Symmetrical Areas Under the
torical dataif we can assume the future will be about the same as Normal Curve.
the past. Figure 2.10 is very important, and students should be encouraged
to truly comprehend the meanings of 1, 2, and 3 standard devia-
Teaching Suggestion 2.3: Confusion Over Mutually Exclusive tion symmetrical areas. They should especially know that man-
and Collectively Exhaustive Events. agers often speak of 95% and 99% condence intervals, which
This concept is often foggy to even the best of studentseven if roughly refer to 2 and 3 standard deviation graphs. Clarify that
they just completed a course in statistics. Use practical examples 95% condence is actually 1.96 standard deviations, while 3
and drills to force the point home. The table at the end of Example standard deviations is actually a 99.7% spread.
3 is especially useful.
Teaching Suggestion 2.10: Using the Normal Table to Answer
Teaching Suggestion 2.4: Addition of Events That Are Not Probability Questions.
Mutually Exclusive. The IQ example in Figure 2.11 is a particularly good way to treat
The formula for adding events that are not mutually exclusive is the subject since everyone can relate to it. Students are typically
P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B). Students must understand curious about the chances of reaching certain scores. Go through
why we subtract P(A and B). Explain that the intersect has been at least a half-dozen examples until its clear that everyone can
counted twice. use the table. Students get especially confused answering ques-
Teaching Suggestion 2.5: Statistical Dependence with tions such as P(X  85) since the standard normal table shows
Visual Examples. only right-hand-side Z values. The symmetry requires special care.
Figure 2.3 indicates that an urn contains 10 balls. This example
works well to explain conditional probability of dependent events. ALTERNATIVE EXAMPLES
An even better idea is to bring 10 golf balls to class. Six should be Alternative Example 2.1: In the past 30 days, Rogers Rural
white and 4 orange (yellow). Mark a big letter or number on each Roundup has sold either 8, 9, 10, or 11 lottery tickets. It never sold
to correspond to Figure 2.3 and draw the balls from a clear bowl to fewer than 8 nor more than 11. Assuming that the past is similar to
make the point. You can also use the props to stress how random the future, here are the probabilities:
sampling expects previous draws to be replaced.
Sales No. Days Probability
Teaching Suggestion 2.6: Concept of Random Variables.
Students often have problems understanding the concept of ran- 8 10 0.333
dom variables. Instructors need to take this abstract idea and pro- 9 12 0.400
vide several examples to drive home the point. Table 2.2 has some 10 6 0.200
useful examples of both discrete and continuous random variables. 11 2 0.067
Total 30 1.000
Teaching Suggestion 2.7: Expected Value of a
Probability Distribution. Alternative Example 2.2: Grades received for a course have a
A probability distribution is often described by its mean and probability based on the professors grading pattern. Here are Pro-
variance. These important terms should be discussed with such fessor Ernie Formans BA205 grades for the past ve years.

4
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 5

Outcome Probability P(1/2 As  advanced class)  0.50

A 0.25 P(1/2 As and regular class)
B 0.30
C 0.35
 P(1/2 As  regular )  P(regular)
D 0.03  (0.25)(0.50)  0.125
F 0.02 P(1/2 As and advanced class)
Withdraw/drop 0.05
1.00  P(1/2 As  advanced)  P(advanced)
 (0.50)(0.5)  0.25
These grades are mutually exclusive and collectively
So P(1/2 As)  0.125  0.25  0.375
exhaustive.
P (advanced and > 1 / 2 As)
Alternative Example 2.3: P (advanced  > 1 / 2 As) 
P (> 1 / 2 As)
P(drawing a 3 from a deck of cards)  4/52  1/13
0.25
P(drawing a club on the same draw)  13/52  1/4  2 / 3
0.375
These are neither mutually exclusive nor collectively exhaustive. So there is a 66% chance the class tested was the advanced
Alternative Example 2.4: In Alternative Example 2.3 we one.
looked at 3s and clubs. Here is the probability for 3 or club: Alternative Example 2.8: Students in a statistics class were
P(3 or club)  P(3)  P(club)  P(3 and club) asked how many away football games they expected to attend in
 4/52  13/52  1/52 the upcoming season. The number of students responding to each
possibility are shown below:
 16/52  4/13
Alternative Example 2.5: A class contains 30 students. Ten are Number of games Number of students
female (F) and U.S. citizens (U); 12 are male (M) and U.S. citi- 5 40
zens; 6 are female and non-U.S. citizens (N); 2 are male and non- 4 30
U.S. citizens. 3 20
A name is randomly selected from the class roster and it is 2 10
female. What is the probability that the student is a U.S. citizen? 1 0
100
U.S. Not U.S. Total
F 10 6 16 A probability distribution of the results would be:
M 12 2 14
Number of games Probability P(X)
Total 22 8 30
5 0.4  40/100
P(U | F) = 10/16 4 0.3  30/100
Alternative Example 2.6: Your professor tells you that if you 3 0.2  20/100
2 0.1  10/100
score an 85 or better on your midterm exam, there is a 90% chance
1 0.0  0/100
youll get an A for the course. You think you have only a 50% 1.0  100/100
chance of scoring 85 or better. The probability that both your
score is 85 or better and you receive an A in the course is This discrete probability distribution is computed using the rela-
P(A and 85)  P(A  85)  P(85)  (0.90)(0.50)  0.45 tive frequency approach. Probabilities are shown in graph form
 45% below.
Alternative Example 2.7: An instructor is teaching two sec-
tions (classes) of calculus. Each class has 24 students, and on the
0.4
surface, both classes appear identical. One class, however, consists
of students who have all taken calculus in high school. The in-
structor has no idea which class is which. She knows that the prob-
Probability

0.3
ability of at least half the class getting As on the rst exam is
only 25% in an average class, but 50% in a class with more math
background. 0.2
A section is selected at random and quizzed. More than half
the class received As. Now, what is the revised probability that the 0.1
class was the advanced one?
P(regular class chosen)  0.5
P(advanced class chosen)  0.5
1 2 3 4 5
P(1/2 As  regular class)  0.25
Possible Outcomes, x
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6 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

Alternative Example 2.9: Here is how the expected outcome 2-2. Events are mutually exclusive if only one of the events can
can be computed for the question in Alternative Example 2.8. occur on any one trial. Events are collectively exhaustive if the list
 xi P( xi ) = x1 P( x1 ) + x2 P( x2 ) of outcomes includes every possible outcome. An example of mu-
5
E(x) =
i =1 tually exclusive events can be seen in ipping a coin. The outcome
of any one trial can either be a head or a tail. Thus, the events of
 x3P(x3) x4P(x4)  x5P(x5) getting a head and a tail are mutually exclusive because only one
of these events can occur on any one trial. This assumes, of
 5(0.4)  4(0.3)  3(0.2)  2(0.1)  1(0) course, that the coin does not land on its edge. The outcome of
 4.0 rolling the die is an example of events that are collectively exhaus-
Alternative Example 2.10: Here is how variance is computed tive. In rolling a standard die, the outcome can be either 1, 2, 3, 4,
for the question in Alternative Example 2.8: 5, or 6. These six outcomes are collectively exhaustive because
they include all possible outcomes. Again, it is assumed that the
variance   ( xi E ( x ))2 P ( xi )
5
die will not land and stay on one of its edges.
i =1
2-3. Probability values can be determined both objectively and
 (5  4)2(0.4)  (4  4)2(0.3)  (3  4)2(0.2) subjectively. When determining probability values objectively,
 (2  4)2(0.1)  (1  4)2(0) some type of numerical or quantitative analysis is used. When de-
 (1)2(0.4)  (0)2(0.3)  (1)2(0.2)  (2)2(0.1) termining probability values subjectively, a managers or decision
makers judgment and experience are used in assessing one or
 0.4  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.0
more probability values.
 1.0
2-4. The probability of the intersection of two events is sub-
The standard deviation is
tracted in summing the probability of the two events to avoid
= variance double counting. For example, if the same event is in both of the
probabilities that are to be added, the probability of this event will
= 1
be included twice unless the intersection of the two events is sub-
1 tracted from the sum of the probability of the two events.
Alternative Example 2.11: The length of the rods coming out 2-5. When events are dependent, the occurrence of one event
of our new cutting machine can be said to approximate a normal does have an effect on the probability of the occurrence of the
distribution with a mean of 10 inches and a standard deviation of other event. When the events are independent, on the other hand,
0.2 inch. Find the probability that a rod selected randomly will the occurrence of one of them has no effect on the probability of
have a length the occurrence of the other event. It is important to know whether
a. of less than 10.0 inches or not events are dependent or independent because the probability
b. between 10.0 and 10.4 inches relationships are slightly different in each case. In general, the
c. between 10.0 and 10.1 inches probability relationships for any kind of independent events are
d. between 10.1 and 10.4 inches simpler than the more generalized probability relationships for
e. between 9.9 and 9.6 inches dependent events.
f. between 9.9 and 10.4 inches 2-6. Bayes theorem is a probability relationship that allows
g. between 9.886 and 10.406 inches new information to be incorporated with prior probability values
First compute the standard normal distribution, the Z-value: to obtain updated or posterior probability values. Bayes theorem
x can be used whenever there is an existing set of probability values
z and new information is obtained that can be used to revise these

Next, nd the area under the curve for the given Z-value by using probability values.
a standard normal distribution table. 2-7. A Bernoulli process has two possible outcomes, and
a. P(x  10.0)  0.50000 the probability of occurrence is constant from one trial to the next.
b. P(10.0  x  10.4)  0.97725  0.50000  0.47725 If n independent Bernoulli trials are repeated and the number
c. P(10.0  x  10.1)  0.69146  0.50000  0.19146 of outcomes (successes) are recorded, the result is a binomial
d. P(10.1  x  10.4)  0.97725  0.69146  0.28579 distribution.
e. P(9.6  x  9.9)  0.97725  0.69146  0.28579 2-8. A random variable is a function dened over a sample space.
f. P(9.9  x  10.4)  0.19146  0.47725  0.66871 There are two types of random variables: discrete and continuous.
g. P(9.886  x  10.406)  0.47882  0.21566  The distributions for the price of a product, the number of
0.69448 sales for a salesperson, and the number of ounces in a food con-
tainer are examples of a probability distribution.
SOLUTIONS TO DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 2-9. A probability distribution is a statement of a probability
AND PROBLEMS function that assigns all the probabilities associated with a random
2-1. There are two basic laws of probability. First, the probability variable. A discrete probability distribution is a distribution of dis-
of any event or state of nature occurring must be greater than or equal crete random variables (that is, random variables with a limited set
to zero and less than or equal to 1. Second, the sum of the simple of values). A continuous probability distribution is concerned with
probabilities for all possible outcomes of the activity must equal 1. a random variable having an innite set of values.
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 7

2-10. The expected value is the average of the distribution and is 2-16. The distribution of chips is as follows:
computed by using the following formula: E(X)  X P(X) (this Red 8
is for a discrete probability distribution). Green 10
2-11. The variance is a measure of the dispersion of the distribu- White 22
tion. The variance of a discrete probability distribution is com- Total  20
puted by the formula a. The probability of drawing a white chip on the rst draw is
V  [X  E(X)]2 P(X) 2 1
P (W )    0.10
2-12. The purpose of this question is to have students name three 20 10
business processes they know that can be described by a normal b. The probability of drawing a white chip on the rst draw
distribution. Answers could include sales of a product, project and a red one on the second is
completion time, average weight of a product, and product de-
P(WR)  P(W)  P(R) (the two events
mand during lead or order time. 2 8 are independent)
 
2-13. This is an example of a discrete probability distribution. It 20 20
was most likely computed using historical data. It is important to
 (0.10)(0.40)
note that it follows the laws of a probability distribution. The total
sums to 1, and the individual values are less than or equal to 1.  0.04
c. P(GG)  P(G)  P(G)
2-14. 10 10
Grade Probability = 
20 20
80
0.27   (0.5)(0.5)
300
A
 0.25
75 d. P(R  W)  P(R) (the events are independent
B 0.25 =
300 8 and hence the conditional
= probability equals the marginal
90 20
0.30 = probability)
C

300  0.40
2-17. The distribution of the nails is as follows:
30
D 0.10 =
300 Type of Nail Number in Bin

25 1 inch 651
F 0.08 = 2 inch 243
300
3 inch 41
1.0 4 inch 451
5 inch 333
Total 1,719
Thus, the probability of a student receiving a C in the course is
0.30  30%. a. The probability of getting a 4-inch nail is
The probability of a student receiving a C may also be calcu- 451
lated using the following equation: P( 4 ) 
1, 719
no. students receiving a C
P(of receiving a C) =  0.26
total no. students
b. The probability of getting a 5-inch nail is
90
P(C) 333
300 P(5) 
1, 719
 0.30
 0.19
2-15. a. P(H)  1/2  0.5
c. The probability of getting a nail 3 inches or shorter is the
b. P(T  H)  P(T)  0.5
probability of getting a nail 1 inch, 2 inches, or 3 inches in
c. P(TT)  P(T)  P(T)  (0.5)(0.5)  0.25
length. The probability is thus
d. P(TH)  P(T)  P(H)  (0.5)(0.5)  0.25
e. We rst calculate P(TH)  0.25, then calculate P(HT)  P(1 or 2 or 3)
(0.5)(0.5)  0.25. To nd the probability of either one occur-  P(1)  P(2)  P(3) (the events are
ring, we simply add the two probabilities. The solution is 0.50. 651 243 41 mutually exclusive)
  
f. At least one head means that we have either HT, TH, or 1, 719 1, 719 1, 719
HH. Since each of these have a probability of 0.25, their total
 0.38  0.14  0.02
probability of occurring is 0.75. On the other hand, the com-
plement of the outcome at least one head is two tails.  0.54
Thus, we could have also computed the probability from 1 
P(TT)  1  0.25  0.75.
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8 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

2-18. J1  junior on rst draw

Exercise No Exercise Total J2  junior on second draw
S1  sophomore on rst draw
Cold 45 155 200 S2  sophomore on second draw
No cold 455 345 800
Total 500 500 1000 a. P(J1)  3/10  0.3
b. P(J2  S1)  0.3
a. The probability that an employee will have a cold next c. P(J2  J1)  0.8
year is d. P(S1S2)  P(S2  S1)  P(S1)  (0.7)(0.7)
Number of people who had colds  0.49
P (C )  e. P(J1J2)  P(J2  J1)  P(J1)  (0.8)(0.3)  0.24
mber of employees
Total num
f. P(1 sophomore and 1 junior regardless of order) is
200 P(S1J2)  P(J1S2)

1, 000
P(S1J2)  P(J2  S1)  P(S1)  (0.3)(0.7)  0.21
 .20 P(J1S2)  P(S2  J1)  P(J1)  (0.2)(0.3)  0.06
b. The probability that an employee who is involved in an Hence, P(S1J2)  P(J1S2)  0.21  0.06  0.27.
exercise program will get a cold is 2-21. Without any additional information, we assume that there
P (CE ) is an equally likely probability that the soldier wandered into
P (C  E ) 
P( E ) either oasis, so P(Abu Ilan)  0.50 and P(El Kamin)  0.50.
45 Since the oasis of Abu Ilan has 20 Bedouins and 20 Farimas (a

500 total population of 40 tribesmen), the probability of nding a
Bedouin, given that you are in Abu Ilan, is 20/40  0.50. Simi-
 .09
larly, the probability of nding a Bedouin, given that you are in El
c. The probability that an employee who is not involved in Kamin, is 32/40  0.80. Thus, P(Bedouin  Abu Ilan)  0.50,
an exercise program will get a cold is P(Bedouin  El Kamin)  0.80.
P (CN ) We now calculate joint probabilities:
P (C | N ) 
P( N ) P(Abu Ilan and Bedouin)
155
  P(Bedouin  Abu Ilan)  P(Abu Ilan)
500
 (0.50)(0.50)  0.25
 .31
P(El Kamin and Bedouin)
d. No. If they were independent, then
 P(Bedouin  El Kamin)
P(C  E)  P(C), but
45  P(El Kamin)  (0.80)(0.50)
P (C  E )   0.09  0.4
500
200 The total probability of nding a Bedouin is
P (C ) 
1, 000 P(Bedouin)  0.25  0.40  0.65
 0.2 P(Abu Ilan  Bedouin)
Therefore, these events are dependent. P ( Abu Ilan and Bedouin) 0.25
   0.385
2-19. The probability of winning tonights game is P (Bedouin) 0.65
number of wins 12
 P(El Kamin  Bedouin)
number of games 20
P (El Kamin and Bedouin) 0.40
6    0.615
 P (Bedouin) 0.65
10
The probability the oasis discovered was Abu Ilan is now only
 0.6 0.385. The probability the oasis is El Kamin is 0.615.
The probability that the team wins tonight is 0.60. The probability
that the team wins tonight and draws a large crowd at tomorrows 2-22. P(Abu Ilan) is 0.50; P(El Kamin) is 0.50.
game is a joint probability of dependent events. Let the probability P(2 Bedouins  Abu Ilan)  (0.50)(0.50)  0.25
of winning be P(W) and the probability of drawing a large crowd P(2 Bedouins  El Kamin)  (0.80)(0.80)  0.64
be P(L). Thus P(Abu Ilan and 2 Bedouins)
P(WL)  P(L  W)  P(W) (the probability of  P(2 Bedouins  Abu Ilan) P(Abu Ilan)
 0.90  0.60 large crowd is 0.90 if
 (0.25)(0.50)
 0.54 the team wins tonight)
 0.125
Thus, the probability of the team winning tonight and of there
being a large crowd at tomorrows game is 0.54. P(El Kamin and 2 Bedouins)
2-20. The second draw is not independent of the rst because the  P(2 Bedouins  El Kamin) P(El Kamin)
probabilities of each outcome depend on the rank (sophomore or  (0.64)(0.50)
junior) of the rst students name drawn. Let  0.32
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 9

Total probability of nding 2 Bedouins is 0.125  0.32  0.445. 2. [P(MB over M) and P(K over MB)]
P(Abu Ilan  2 Bedouins) P(1)  (0.6)(0.2)  0.12
P (Abu Ilan and 2 Bedouin) 0.125 P(2)  (0.8)(0.4)  0.32
   0.281
P (2 Bedouins) 0.445 Probability  P(1)  P(2)
P(El Kamin  2 Bedouins)  0.12  0.32
P (El Kamin and 2 Bedouins) 0.332  0.44
   0.719
P (2 Bedouins) 0.445 d. Probability  1  winning every game
These second revisions indicate that the probability that the oasis  1  answer to part (a)
was Abu Ilan is 0.281. The probability that the oasis found was El  1  0.08
Kamin is now 0.719.  0.92
2-23. P(adjusted)  0.8, P(not adjusted)  0.2. 2-25. a. Probability  P(K over M)  0.2.
P(pass  adjusted)  0.9, b. Probability  P(K over MB)  0.4.
c. Probability
P(pass  not adjusted)  0.2
 [P(K over M) and P(MB over K)] or
P(adjusted and pass)
[P(K over MB) and P(M over K)]
 P(pass  adjusted)  P(adjusted)
 (0.2)(0.6)  (0.4)(0.8)
 (0.9)(0.8)  0.72
 0.12  0.32
P(not adjusted and pass)
 0.44
 P(pass  not adjusted)  P(not adjusted)
d. Probability  [P(K over MB) and P(K over M)]
 (0.2)(0.2)  0.04
 (0.4)(0.2)
Total probability that part passes inspection
 0.08
 0.72  0.04  0.76
e. Probability  P(MB over K) and P(M over K)
P(adjusted  pass)
P (adjusted and pass) 0.72  (0.6)(0.8)
   0.947
P (pass) 0.76  0.48
The posterior probability the lathe tool is properly adjusted is f. No. They do not appear to be a very good team.
0.947. 2-26. The probability of Dick hitting the bulls-eye:
3 P(D)  0.90
2-24. P ( MB over K )   0.6
5 The probability of Sally hitting the bulls-eye:
4 P(S)  0.95
P ( MB over M )   0.8
5
a. The probability of either Dick or Sally hitting the bulls-
2 eye:
P ( K over MB )   0.4 (MB  Mamas
5 P(D or S)  P(D)  P(S)  P(D)P(S)
Boys, K  the
1
P ( K over M )   0.2 Killers, and  0.90  0.95  (0.90)(0.95)
5 M  the Machos)  0.995
1
P ( M over MB )   0.2 b. P(D and S)  P(D)P(S)
5  (0.9)(0.95)
4
P ( M over K )   0.8  0.855
5 c. It was assumed that the events are independent. This as-
a. The probability that K will win every game is sumption seems to be justied. Dicks performance shouldnt
P  P(K over MB) and P(K over M) inuence Sallys performance.
 (0.4)(0.2 )  0.08 2-27. In the sample of 1,000 people, 650 people were from
b. The probability that M will win at least one game is Laketown and 350 from River City. Thirteen of those with cancer
were from Laketown. Six of those with cancer were from River
P(M over K)  P(M over MB)  P(M over K)
City.
 P(M over MB)
a. The probability of a person from Laketown having cancer:
 (0.8)  (0.2)  (0.8)(0.2)
13
 1  0.16 P(cancer|Laketown)
650
 0.84 1

c. The probability is 50
1. [P(MB over K) and P(M over MB)], or  0.020
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10 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

The probability of a person having cancer: 10!

19 d) P(r 10)  (0.5)10 (0.5)1010  0.0010
P(cancer)  10!(10 10)!
1000
 0.019 e) P(r  6)  P(r 7)  P(r  7)  P(r  8)  P(r  9)
Not independent.  P(r  10)
 0.1172  0.0439  0.0098  0.0010
b. I would rather live in River City.
 0.1719
P ( B  A) P ( A)
2-28. P ( A  B)  2-33. This is a binomial distribution with n4, p0.7, and
P ( B  A) P ( A) + P ( B  A) P ( A) q0.3.
where A  fair die 4!
P(r  3)  (0.7)3 (0.3)43  0.4116
A  unfair die
3!( 4  3)!
B  getting a 3
P(3  F ) P( F ) 4!
P ( A  B )  P ( F  3)  P(r  4 )  (0.7)4 (0.3)44  0.2401
P(3  F ) P( F ) + P(3  L ) P( L ) 4 !( 4  4 )!
(0.166 )(0.5)
 2-34. This is a binomial distribution with n5, p0.1, and
(0.166 )(0.5)  (0.6 )(0.5) q0.9.
0.083
 5!
0.083  0.3 P(r 1)  (0.1)1 (0.9)51  0.328
1!(5 1)!
 0.22
Therefore, 5!
P(r  0)  (0.1)0 (0.9)50  0.590
P(L)  1  0.22  0.78 0!(5 0)!
2-29. Parts (a) and (c) are probability distributions because the 2-35. This is a binomial distribution with n6, p0.05, and
probability values for each event are between 0 and 1, and the sum q0.95.
of the probability values for the events is 1.
6!
P(r  0)  (0.05)0 (0.95)60  0.735
2-30. X P(X) X P(X) 0!(6  0)!
0 0.05 0.00
6!
1 0.15 0.15 P(r 1)  (0.05)1 (0.95)61  0.232
2 0.2 0.40 1!(6 1)!
3 0.25 0.75
4 0.20 0.80
2-36. This is a binomial distribution with n6, p0.15, and
5 0.15 0.75 q0.85.
2.85 6!
P(r  0)  (0.15)0 (0.85)60  0.377
0!(6  0)!
Hence, 2.85 loaves will be sold on average.
6!
P(r 1)  (0.15)1 (0.85)61  0.399
2-31. X P(X ) X P(X) X E(X ) (X E(X ))2 (X E(X ))2P(X ) 1!(6 1)!
1 0.05 0.05 4.45 19.803 0.99013 Probability of 0 or 1 defective  P(0)  P(1)  0.377  0.399 
2 0.05 0.1 3.45 11.903 0.59513 0.776.
3 0.10 0.3 2.45 6.003 0.6003
2-37.  450 degrees
4 0.10 0.4 1.45 2.103 0.2103
5 0.15 0.75 0.45 0.203 0.03038  25 degrees
6 0.15 0.9 0.55 0.303 0.04538 X  475 degrees
7 0.25 1.75 1.55 2.403 0.60063
X  475  450
8 0.15 1.20 2.55 6.5025 0.97538 Z  1
5.45 4.04755 25

E(X)  5.45
2 
[X  E(X)]2P(X)
 4.0476
2-32. n  10, p  0.5, q  0.5
10!
a) P(r  7)  (0.5)7 (0.5)107  0.1172
7!(10  7)!
10!
b) P(r  8)  (0.5)8 (0.5)108  0.0439
8!(10  8)!
10!
c) P(r  9)  (0.5)9 (0.5)109  0.0098
9!(10  9)! 450 475
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 11

The area to the left of 475 is 0.8413 from Table 2.5, where  1. b.
The area to the right of 475 is 1  0.8413  0.1587. Thus, the
probability of the oven getting hotter than 475 is 0.1587.
To determine the probability of the oven temperature being
between 460 and 470, we need to compute two areas.

4,500 4,700

4, 500  4, 700 200

Z    0.4
500 500
450 X1 X2 area  0.6554
probability  0.6554
X1  460
X2  470 c.
460  450 10
Z1    0.4
25 25
area X1  0.6554
470  450 20
Z2    0.8
25 25
area X2  0.7881
The area between X1 and X2 is 0.7881  0.6554  0.1327. Thus,
the probability of being between 460 and 470 degrees is  0.1327.
2-38.  4,700;  500 4,700 4,900

4, 900  4, 700 200

Z    0.4
500 500
area  0.6554  probability
This answer is the same as the answer to part (b) because the
normal curve is symmetrical.
d.

4,700 5,500

a. The sale of 5,500 oranges (X  5,500) is the equivalent of

some Z value which may be obtained from
X 
Z

5, 500  4, 700
 500
4,300 4,700
 1.6
The area under the curve lying to the left of 1.6  0.94520. 4, 300  4, 700 400
Z    0.8
Therefore, the area to the right of 1.6  1  0.94520, or 0.0548. 500 500
Therefore, the probability of sales being greater than 5,500
oranges is 0.0548. Area to the right of 4,300 is 0.7881, from Table 2.5. The area to
the left of 4,300 is 1  0.7881  0.2119  the probability that
sales will be fewer than 4,300 oranges.
2-39.  87,000
 4,000
X  81,000
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12 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

81, 000 87, 000 6 c) P(X  65)  1  P(X  65)

Z   1.5
4, 000 4  1  P(Z  (65  60)/4)
 1  P(Z  1.25)
 1  0.89435  0.10565
2-42. The time to complete the project (X) is normally distrib-
uted with  40 and  5. A penalty must be paid if the project
takes longer than the due date (or if X  due date).
a) P(X  40)  1  (X  40)  1  P(Z  (40  40)/5)
 1  P(Z  0)  1  0.5  0.5
b) P(X  43)  1  P(X  43)  1  P(Z  (43  40)/5)
 1  P(Z  0.6)  1  0.72575  0.27425
81,000 87,000 c) If there is a 5% chance that the project will be late, there is a
95% chance the project will be nished by the due date. So,
Area to the right of 81,000  0.9332, from Table 2.5, where Z 
1.5. Thus, the area to the left of 81,000  1  0.9332  0.0668  P(X  due date)  0.95 or
the probability that sales will be fewer than 81,000 packages. P(X  _____)  0.95
2-40. The z-value for a probability of 0.95 is approximately 1.64, so the
due date (X) should have a z-value of 1.64. Thus,
X  40
1.64 
5
5(1.64)  X  40
X  48.2. The due date should be 48.2 weeks from the start of the
project
2-43.   5/day; e  0.0067 (from Appendix C)
x e  (1)(0.0067)
a. P (0)    0.0067
X! 1
454,000 457,000 460,000
(5)(0.0067)
 457,000 P(1)   0.0335
1
Ninety percent of the time, sales have been between 460,000 and
454,000 pencils. This means that 10% of the time sales have 25(0.0067)
P( 2 )   0.0837
exceeded 460,000 or fallen below 454,000. Since the curve is 2
symmetrical, we assume that 5% of the area lies to the right of
125(0.0067)
460,000 and 5% lies to the left of 454,000. Thus, 95% of the area P( 3)   0.1396
under the curve lies to the left of 460,000. From Table 2.5, we 6
note that the number nearest 0.9500 is 0.94950. This corresponds 625(0.0067)
to a Z value of 1.64. Therefore, we may conclude that the Z value P( 4 )   0.1745
24
corresponding to a sale of 460,000 pencils is 1.64.
X  3125(0.0067)
Using Equation 2-12, we get Z  : P(5)   0.1745
120
X  460,000
b. These sum to 0.6125, not 1, because there are more possi-
 457,000 ble arrivals. For example, 6 or 7 patients might arrive in one
is unknown day.
Z  1.64 2-44. P(X  3)  1  P(X 3)  1  [P(0)  P(1)
460, 000  457, 000  P(2)  P(3)]
1.64 
 1  [0.0067  0.0335  0.0837  0.1396]
1.64   3000  1  0.2635  0.7365  73.65%
3000 2-45.  3/hour
 
1.64 1 1
a. Expected time   hour
 1829.27 3
2-41. a) P(X  62)  P(Z  (62  60)/4)  P(Z  0.5)  20 minutes
 0.69146 1 1
b. Variance  
b) P(X  66)  P(Z  (66  60)/4)  P(Z  1.5) 2 9
 0.93319
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 13

2-46. Let S  steroids present P ( PS | S ) P ( S )

P ( S | PS ) 
N  steroids not present P ( PS | S ) P ( S ) P ( PS | U ) P (U )
TP  test is positive for steroids 0.90(0.70)
  0.91
TN  test is negative for steroids 0.90(0.70) 0.20(0.30)

P(S )  0.02 P(N)  0.98 2-50. Let D  Default on loan; D'  No default; R  Loan
P(TP | S )  0.95 P(TN | S)  0.05 rejected; R  Loan approved Given:

P(TP | N )  0.10 P(TN | N )  0.90 P(D)  0.2

P(D')  0.8
P (TP | S ) P ( S )
P ( S | TP )  P(R | D)  0.9
P (TP | S ) P ( S ) P (TP | N ) P ( N )
0.95(0.02 ) P(R' | D')  0.7
 = 0.16 (a) P(R | D')  1  0.7  0.3
0.95(0.02 )0 .10(0.98)
P(R | D ') P( D ')
2-47. Let G  market is good (b) P(D ' | R ) =
P(R | D ') P( D ') + P( R | D ) P(D )
P  market is poor
0.3(0.8)
PG  test predicts good market = = 0.57
0.3(0.8) + 0.9(0.2)
PP  test predicts poor market
2-51. (a) F0.05, 5, 10  3.33
P(G )  0.70 P(P)  0.30
(b) F0.05, 8.7  3.73
P(PG | G )  0.85 P(PP | G )  0.15 (c) F0.05, 3, 5  5.41
P(PG | P )  0.20 P(PP | P)  0.90 (d) F0.05, 10. 4  5.96
P ( PG | G ) P (G ) 2-52. (a) F0.01, 15, 6  7.56
P (G | PG )  (b) F0.01, 12, 8  5.67
P ( PG | G ) P (G ) P ( PG | P ) P ( P )
(c) F0.01, 3, 5  12.06
0.85(0.70) F0.01, 9, 7  6.72
  0.91 (d)
0.85(0.70) 0.20(0.30)
2-53. (a) From the appendix, P(F3,4  6.59)  0.05, so
2-48. Let W  candidate wins the election P(F  6.8) must be less than 0.05.
L  candidate loses the election
PW  poll predicts win
PL  poll predicts loss
P(W)  0.50 P(L)  0.50
P(PW | W)  0.80 P(PL | W )  0.20
P(PW | L)  0.10 P(PL | L)  0.90 0.05
6.59 6.8
P ( PW | W ) P (W )
P (W | PW )  (b) From the appendix, P(F7,3  8.89)  0.05, so
P ( PW | W ) P (W ) P ( PW | L ) P ( L )
P(F  3.6) must be greater than 0.05.
0.80(0.50)
  0.89 (c) From the appendix, P(F20,20  2.12)  0.05, so
0.80(0.50) 0.10(0.50) P(F  2.6) must be less than 0.05.
P ( PL | L ) P ( L ) (d) From the appendix, P(F7,5  4.88)  0.05, so
P ( L | PL ) 
P ( PL | L ) P ( L ) P ( PL | W ) P (W ) P(F  5.1) must be less than 0.05.
0.90(0.50) (e) From the appendix, P(F7,5  4.88)  0.05, so
  0.82 P(F  5.1) must be greater than 0.05.
0.90(0.50) 0.20(0.50)
2-54. (a) From the appendix, P(F5,4  15.52)  0.01, so
2-49. Let S  successful restaurant P(F  14) must be greater than 0.05.
U  unsuccessful restaurant
PS  model predicts successful restaurant
PU  model predicts unsuccessful restaurant
P(S )  0.70 P(U )  0.30
P(PS | S)  0.90 P(PU | S )  0.10
P(PS | U )  0.20 P(PU | U )  0.80
0.01
14 15.52
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14 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

(b) From the appendix, P(F6,3  27.91)  0.01, so This area is 1  0.7257, or 0.2743. Therefore, the probability of
P(F  30) must be less than 0.01. selling more than 265 boats  0.2743.
(c) From the appendix, P(F10,12  4.30)  0.01, so For a sale of fewer than 250 boats:
P(F  4.2) must be greater than 0.01. X  250
(d) From the appendix, P(F2,3  30.82)  0.01, so  250
P(F  35) must be less than 0.01.
(e) From the appendix, P(F2,3  30.82)  0.01, so  25
P(F  35) must be greater than 0.01. However, a sale of 250 boats corresponds to  250. At this
point, Z  0. The area under the curve that concerns us is that half
2-55. X  280 of the area lying to the left of  250. This area  0.5000. Thus,
the probability of selling fewer than 250 boats  0.5.
 250
2-57.  0.55 inch (average shaft size)
 25
X  X  0.65 inch
Z
 0.10 inch
280  250 Converting to a Z value yields

25 X 
30 Z

25
0.65  0.55
 1.20 standard deviations 
0.10
0.10

0.10
1
We thus need to look up the area under the curve that lies to the
left of 1. From Table 2.5, this is seen to be  0.8413. As seen
earlier, the area to the left of is  0.5000.
We are concerned with the area between and  1. This
is given by the difference between 0.8413 and 0.5000, and it is
0.3413. Thus, the probability of a shaft size between 0.55 inch and
0.65 inch  0.3413.
 = 250 280
From Table 2.5, the area under the curve corresponding to a Z of
1.20  0.8849. Therefore, the probability that the sales will be less
than 280 boats is 0.8849.
2-56. The probability of sales being over 265 boats:
X  265
 250
 25
265  250
Z
25
 = 0.55 X = 0.65
15

25 2-58. Greater than 0.65 inch:
area to the left of 1  0.8413
 0.60
area to the right of 1  1  0.8413
 0.1587
Thus, the probability of a shaft size being greater than 0.65 inch is
0.1587.

 = 250 X = 265

From Table 2.5, we nd that the area under the curve to the left of
Z  0.60 is 0.7257. Since we want to nd the probability of selling
more than 265 boats, we need the area to the right of Z  0.60. 0.55 0.65
 REVISED
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CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS 15

The shaft size between 0.53 and 0.59 inch: Thus, we need to nd the area to the left of 1. Again, since Table
X2  0.53 inch 2.5 handles only positive values of Z, we need to determine the
X1  0.59 inch area to the right of 1. This is obtained by 1  0.8413  0.1587
 0.55 inch (0.8413 is the area to the left of 1). Therefore, the area to the left
of 1  0.1587 (the curve is symmetrical). Thus, the probability
that the shaft size will be under 0.45 inch is 0.1587.

2-59. n p x qn x
x
x3
n4
q  15/20  .75
p  5/20  .25
4 (.25)3 (.75)
3
0.53  = 0.55 0.59 4!
(.25)3 (.75) 
Converting to scores: 3!( 4 3)!
X1  X2  (4)(.0156)(.75) 
Z1  Z2 

.0464 [probability that Marie will win 3 games]
0.59  0.55 0.53  0.55

0.10
0.04

0.10
0.02
( 44 )(.25) (.75) .003906
4 0
[probability that Marie will
win all four games against
 
0.10 0.10 Jan]
 0.4  0.2
Probability that Marie will be number one is .04694  .003906 
Since Table 2.5 handles only positive Z values, we need to calcu- .05086.
late the probability of the shaft size being greater than 0.55 
2-60. Probability one will be ned 
0.02  0.57 inch. This is determined by nding the area to the left
of 0.57, that is, to the left of 0.2. From Table 2.5, this is 0.5793. P(2)  P(3)  P(4)  P(5)
The area to the right of 0.2 is 1  0.5793  0.4207. The area  1  P(0)  P(1)
to the left of 0.53 is also 0.4207 (the curve is symmetrical). The
area to the left of 0.4 is 0.6554. The area between X1 and X2 is = 1 ( ) (.5) (.5) ( ) (.5) (.5)
5
0
0 5 5
1
1 4

0.6554  0.4207  0.2347. The probability that the shaft will be

between 0.53 inch and 0.59 inch is 0.2347.  1  .03125  .15625
Under 0.45 inch:
 .08125
X  0.45
P(0)  0.03125
 0.55
P(5)  0.03125
 0.10
2-61.
X 
Z
X P(X )
0.45  0.55
 0 5 (.2)0 (.8)5 = .327 .327
0.10 0
0.10 1 5 (.2)1(.8)5 1 = .410 .410
 1
0.10
 1 2 5 (.2)2 (.8)5 2 = .205 .205
2
3 5 (.2)3 (.8)5 3 = .051 .051
3
4 5 (.2)4 (.8)5 4 = .0064 .0064
4
5 5 (.2)5 (.8)5 5 = .00032 .00032
5
1.0

0.45 0.55
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16 CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

XP(X) X E(X) (X E(X))2 (X E(X))2P(X) SOLUTION TO WTVX CASE

0.0 .9985 .997 .326 1. The chances of getting 15 days of rain during the next 30 days
.41 .0015 0 0 can be computed by using the binomial theorem. The problem is
.41 1.0015 1.003 .2056 well suited for solution by the theorem because there are two and
.153 2.0015 4.006 .2043 only two possible outcomes (rain or sun) with given probabilities
.024 3.0015 9.009 .0541 (70% and 30%, respectively). The formula used is:
.0015 4.0015 16.012 .0048
n!
.9985 .7948 Probability of r successes  p r ( qnr )
r !( n  r )!
where
E(X)  .9985  1.0 2  (X  E(X))2P(X) n  the number of trials (in this case, the number of
 .7948  0.80 days  30),
Using the formulas for the binomial: r  the number of successes (number of rainy days  15),
E(R)  nP p  probability of success (probability of rain  70%), and
 (5)(.2)  1.0 q  probability of failure (probability of sun  30%).
V  nP(1  P) n!
p r ( qnr ) 
30!
(.70)15 (.30)155 .0106
 5(.2)(.8) r !( n  r )! 15!(15!)
 0.80 The probability of getting exactly 15 days of rain in the next 30
days is 1.06%.
The equation produced equivalent results.
2. Joes assumptions concerning the weather for the next 30 days
2-62. a. n  10; p  .25; q  .75; state that what happens on one day is not in any way dependent on
what happened the day before; what this says, for example, is that

( )p q
10
x
x 10 x
P(X ) X
if a cold front passed through yesterday, it will not affect what
happens today.
But there are perhaps certain conditional probabilities associ-
( 10
0 ) (.25) (.75)
0 10 0
= .0563 0 ated with the weather (for example, given that it rained yesterday,
the probability of rain today is 80% as opposed to 70%). Not being
( 10
1 ) (.25) (.75)
1 10 1
= .1877 1 familiar with the eld of meteorology, we cannot say precisely
what these are. However, our contention is that these probabilities
( 10
2 ) (.25) (.75)
2 10 2
= .2816 2 do exist and that Joes assumptions are fallacious.

( 10
3 ) (.25) (.75)
3 10 3
= .2503 3

( 10
4 ) (.25) (.75)
4 10 4
= .1460 4

( 10
5 ) (.25) (.75)
5 10 5
= .0584 5

( 10
6 ) (.25) (.75)
6 10 6
= .0162 6

( 10
7 ) (.25) (.75)
7 10 7
= .0031 7

( 10
8 ) (.25) (.75)
8 10 8
= .0004 8

( 10
9 ) (.25) (.75)
9 10 9
= .00003 9

( 10
10 ) (.25) (.75)
10 10 10
= .0000 10

b. E(X)  (10).25  2.5

V  npq  (10)(.25)(.75)
 1.875
c. Expected weekly prot:
$125.
1 2.5
$312.50