International Journal of Agricultural

Science and Research (IJASR)

ISSN(P): 2250-0057; ISSN(E): 2321-0087
Vol. 7, Issue 1, Feb 2017, 7-14
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.

APPLICATION OF GROWTH MODELS FOR AREA, PRODUCTION AND

PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS OF SUGARCANE CROP FOR COASTAL ANDHRA
REGION OF ANDHRA PRADESH

R. GREESHMA1, M.H.V BHAVE2 & P. SHIVA KUMAR3

1
Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural college, PJTSAU, Polasa, Jagtial, Telangana, India
2
Department of Statistics and Mathematics, College of Agriculture, PJTSAU, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
3
Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, PJTSAU, Hyderabad, Telangana India
ABSTRACT

The analysis of growth was used to find out the trend of a particular variable over a period of time and used for
making policy decisions. The growth in the area, production and productivity of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum)
crop in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra Pradesh State was estimated using different linear and non-linear growth
functions. The necessary secondary data were collected for a period of 40 years i.e., from 1973-74 to 2012-13.
Growth rates were computed by using compound growth rates. Trend values were computed to study relative growth
pattern.The future projections of area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra region of

Original Article
Andhra Pradesh state up to 2019-20 AD were estimated upon the best fitted growth model. It was observed that quadratic
function was the best fitted model for area and production whereas linear function for productivity. It was revealed from
the results that area, production and productivityof sugarcane crop was increasing at a rate of 1.19 percent, 1.61 percent
and 0.41 percent per annum, respectively.

Abbreviations: Adj R2Adjusted R2, RMS- Residual Mean Square

KEYWORDS: Adj R2, Future projections, Sugarcane & Trend

Received: Nov 25, 2016; Accepted: Dec 16, 2016; Published: Dec 21, 2016; Paper Id.: IJASRFEB20172

INTRODUCTION

Sugarcane is an important commercial crop in India. Sugarcane is used for making white sugar, brown
sugar (Khandsari), Jaggery (Gur) and ethanol. It also provides biofuel, fiber, fertilizer and myriad of by-products
with ecological sustainability. The main byproducts of sugar industry are bagasse and molasses. Molasses is raw
material for alcohol and bagasse is used as raw material in the paper industry. Besides, co-generation of power
using bagasse as fuel is considered feasible in most sugar mills. In India during 2013-14 sugarcane was cultivated
in an area of 5.01 Million hectares with production of 350.02 million tonnes and with the productivity of
69.83tonnes/ha. In Andhra Pradesh during 2012-13, the area under sugarcane crop was 1.56 lakh hectares and
production was 120 million tonnes with productivity of 76.9 tonnes/ha. In Costal Andhra region of Andhra
Pradesh the area of sugarcane crop was 1.26 lakh hectares with production of 93million tonnes and productivity of
73.81 tonnes/ha during 2012-13 [2].

The statistical information on crop area, production and productivity form the backbone of agricultural
statistical system. Data analysis is vital since, it forms the basis for economics and policy planning by the
governments. It becomes easy to formulate and initiate appropriate policy measures if the data with regard to the

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8 R. Greeshma, M.H.V Bhave & P. Shiva Kumar

trend (increase or decrease) of the production is obtained and analyzed in advance. Growth rate analysis is widely
employed to study the long-term trends in various agricultural crops [4].

The objective of the present study is to study the growth rate, measure the trend and to estimate future projections
by 2019-20 AD in area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra Pradesh State
based on ten growth models.

MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY

The present investigation was based on secondary data which were collected from the publications of Directorate
of Economics and Statistics (DES), Ministry of Agriculturefor the period of 40 years i.e., forms 1973-74 to 2012-13.
The study examines growth rates of area, production and yield of sugarcane in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra Pradesh
by using Compound Growth Rate (CGR). The compound growth rate (CGR) is estimated by fitting an exponential function
Y = abt, where, Y defines the time series data of area, production and yield of sugarcane, t is the trend term, a is the
constant coefficient and b is the slope coefficient. We can calculate the compound growth rate using the equation: CGR
(%) = (b-1) x 100. The t- test was applied to test the significance of b.

Trend was examined by fitting ten Growth models.

Table 1: Mathematical Equations for Ten Growth Models

S. No Growth Models Mathematical Equation
1 Linear function - Yt = a + bt
2 Logarithmic function - Yt = a + b ln(t)
3 Inverse function - Yt = a + b/t
4 Quadratic function - Yt = a + bt + ct2
5 Cubic function - Yt = a + bt + ct2 + dt3
6 Compound function - Yt = abt or lnYt = ln a + t ln b
7 S-curve - Yt = Exp (a+b/t) or lnYt = a + b/t
8 Growth function - Yt = Exp (a + bt) or lnYt = a + bt
9 Power function - Yt = atb or lnYt = ln a + b ln(t)
10 Exponential fit - Yt = a Exp (bt) or lnYt = ln a + (bt)

Where,

Yt is the dependent variable i.e., area, production and productivity

t is the independent variable, time in years

a, b, c and d are the constants

The constants a, b, c andd are estimated by applying the Ordinary Least Square approach.

The model which showed relatively high significant Adj R2 with least residual mean square (RMS) was chosen to
fit a trend equation. In best fitted model the disturbance term should satisfythe conditions of randomness. The assumption
of randomness of residuals is verified by Run test.

The future projections of area, production and productivity of Sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra
Pradeshup to 2019-20 AD was estimated upon the best fitted growth model which were used for fitting the trend equations.

The growth rates of different crops were studied mostly through Compound growth rate by assuming the
exponential functional forms ([1], [3] and [6]). Some of research workers have used linear and non-linear regression

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Application of Growth Models for Area, Production and Productivity Trends of 9
Sugarcane Crop for Coastal Andhra Region of Andhra Pradesh

models for measuring trends, which are currently being used by the planners or the policy makers of the country [5]; Test
for randomness of the residuals by run test was also used by [5], [6]; the estimation of future projections by best fitted
model was used by [6].

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

In Coastal Andhra the average area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop during the study period
(1973-74 to 2012-13) were 113.24 thousand hectares, 78.6 lakh tonnes and 68.9 tonnes/ha respectively with coefficient of
variation of 19.13, 23.6 and 8.43 per cent respectively.

Growth Rates in Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane Crop in Coastal Andhra Region of Andhra
Pradesh

Compound growth rate of sugarcane during study period (1973-74 to 2012-13) for area, production and
productivity were recorded as 1.19%, 1.61% and 0.41% per annum respectively. Growth rates were found to be positive
and significant at 1% level of significance and imply that production had increased at a rate of 1.61% which was due to
combined effect of increase in area and productivity at a rate of 1.19% and 0.41% per annum, respectively. There was a
slow process of growth in area, production and productivity of sugarcane during the study period.

Fitting of Growth Models for Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra

Different linear and nonlinear growth models were employed to study the trends in the area, production and
productivity data of the sugarcane crop. The findings are discussed as follows.

Growth Models in Area

The data presented in Table. 2 for the area under the sugarcane crop revealed that among ten growth models fitted,
the maximum Adj R2 of 70.7% was observed in case of cubic function but run test value was found significant indicating
that the residuals were not independently distributed. Hence quadratic function with Adj R2 of 52.2% and RMS 230.64
which has significant runs was found to be best fitted model.

Yt = 88.45 + 0.96*t + 0.009* t2

(Adj R2 =52.2%)

The graph of the fitted trend for the area of sugarcane crop using the quadratic Model is shown in the Figure1

Table 2: Growth Models for the Area of Sugarcane in Coastal Andhra

Model A b c d AdjR2 RMS Runs
Linear 85.80 1.33 0.509** 230.74 10
Logarithmic 74.39 14.08 0.304** 326.77 10
Inverse 116.58 -31.15 0.037 452.48 7
Quadratic 88.45 0.96 0.009 0.522** 230.67 9
Cubic 118.28 -7.26 0.50 -0.0081 0.707** 137.64 18
Compound 87.19 1.01 0.502** 231.28 8
Power 79.03 0.12 0.295** 453.57 7
S 4.73 -0.25 0.029 231.28 8
Growth 4.46 0.01 0.502** 313.31 9
Exponential 87.19 0.01 0.502** 231.28 8
**Significant at 1%level
*Significant at 5% level

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10 R. Greeshma, M.H.V Bhave & P. Shiva Kumar

Growth Models in Production

The results shown in Table 3 reveal that Production of sugarcane in Coastal Andhra showed an increasing growth
pattern during the study period. Among ten growth models fitted, the maximum Adj R2 was observed in case of cubic
function but it has significant run which reveals that errors are not randomly distributed. Therefore quadratic function was
found to be best trend equation with significant Adj R2 60.4, least RMS (139.63) and significant runs.

Yt = 57.11 + 0.68 *t + 0.01 * t2

(Adj R2 =60.4%)

The graph of the fitted trend for the production of sugarcane crop using the quadratic Model is shown in the
Figure 2.

Table 3: Growth Models for the Production of Sugarcane in Coastal Andhra

Model a b c d AdjR2 RMS Runs
Linear 53.24 1.24 0.597** 139.63 10
Logarithmic 42.27 13.19 0.367** 219.06 11
Inverse 82.01 -31.22 0.06 325.55 11
Quadratic 57.11 0.68 0.01 0.604** 140.62 10
Cubic 78.75 -5.28 0.37 -0.005 0.742** 89.49 20
Compound 55.10 1.01 0.573** 138.90 10
Power 48.05 0.16 0.345** 326.53 9
S 4.37 -0.37 0.047 138.90 10
Growth 4.01 0.01 0.573** 204.88 13
Exponential 55.10 0.01 0.573** 138.90 10
**Significant at 1% level
*Significant at 5% level

Growth Models in Productivity

Productivity of sugarcane in Coastal Andhra region showed an increasing trend during the study period of
1973-74 to 2012-13. Among ten growth models fitted, the maximum Adj R2(31%) with least RMS (23.38) and non-
significant runs (errors were distributed randomly) was found in Linear growth model. Hence trend equation is fitted by
linear model.

Yt = 63.15 + 0.28*t

(Adj R2 =31.0%)

The graph of the fitted trend for the productivity of sugarcane crop using the quadratic Model is shown in the
Figure3

Table 4: Growth Models for the Productivity of Sugarcane in Coastal Andhra

Model A b c d AdjR2 RMS Runs
Linear 63.15 0.28 0.310** 23.38 14
Logarithmic 60.41 3.11 0.197** 27.19 15
Inverse 69.89 -8.39 0.037 32.61 13
Quadratic 64.75 0.05 0.005 0.35** 23.54 18
Cubic 66.42 -0.40 0.03 -0.0005 0.296** 23.86 18
Compound 63.19 1.004 0.294** 23.32 16
Power 60.80 0.04 0.184** 32.58 13
S 4.24 -0.11 0.031 23.32 16

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Application of Growth Models for Area, Production and Productivity Trends of 11
Sugarcane Crop for Coastal Andhra Region of Andhra Pradesh

Table 4: Contd.,
Growth 4.14 0.004 0.294** 26.98 15
Exponential 63.19 0.004 0.294** 23.32 16
**Significant at 1% level
*Significant at 5% level

Future Projections of Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra Region of Andhra
Pradesh up to 2019-20 AD

The future projections of area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop in Coastal Andhra region by
2019-20 AD were calculated based upon the best fitted model and the results were presented in the Table 5.

Table 5: Projections of Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane in Coastal Andhra

Year Area(000 Production Productivity
hectare) (Lakh Tonnes) (tonnes/ha)
2015-16 146.83 111.61 75.41
2016-17 148.59 113.47 75.69
2017-18 150.38 115.36 75.98
2018-19 152.18 117.27 76.26
2019-20 154.01 119.22 76.55

Area under sugarcane in Coastal Andhra was projected by using quadratic function which was found to be best for
this purpose as it has high significant Adj R2with least residual mean square and also fulfilled the assumption of
randomness of residuals. The area under sugarcane projected by quadratic function by 2019-20 AD would be
154.01thousand hectare which is in increasing trend depicted in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Trends of Sugarcane Area in Coastal Andhra & Projections by 2019-20 AD

Regarding the production of sugarcane, quadratic function was found to be the best model for future projections
by 2019-20 AD as it has the significant Adj R2 with the assumption of randomness of residuals satisfied. The projected
production would be increasing to 119.22 lakh tonnes by 2019-20 AD shown in Figure 2.

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12 R. Greeshma, M.H.V Bhave & P. Shiva Kumar

Figure 2: Trends of Sugarcane Production in Coastal Andhra and Projections by 2019-20 AD

Regarding the productivity of sugarcane, also linear function was found to be the best model for future projections
by 2019-20 AD as it has the high significant AdjR2 with least residual mean square and also satisfied the assumption of
randomness of residuals. The projected productivity would be increasing to 76.55tonnes/ha by 2019-20 AD shown in
Figure.3.

Figure 3: Trends of Sugarcane Productivity in Coastal Andhra and Projections by 2019-20 AD

Similar studies [6] revealed that the trends in area, production and productivity of rice crop for 40 years
(1969-2009) in Andhra Pradesh and found logarithmic model in area and linear model in production and productivity were
best fitted models. Those best fitted models were used for future projections by 2014 AD.

CONCLUSIONS

The trend and growth rate of Sugarcane area, production and productivity for the period 1973-74 to 2012-13 were
analysed and forecasted to the year 2019-20 in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra Pradesh. Average area, production and
productivity under sugarcane in Coastal Andhra region of Andhra Pradesh during the study period were 113.25 thousand
hectares, 78.67 lakh tonnes and 68.99 tonnes/ha respectively. Among the area, production and productivity, the production
exhibited higher growth rates due to increased trend in growth rate of area and productivity. Results revealed that the cane
production will be increased to 119.22 lakh tonnes with a CGR of 1.61% from about 154.01 thousand hectares of land with
a productivity of 76.55 tonnes/ha by 2019-20.

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Application of Growth Models for Area, Production and Productivity Trends of 13
Sugarcane Crop for Coastal Andhra Region of Andhra Pradesh

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4. Panse, V.G. (1964) Yield trends of rice and wheat in first two five-year plans in India, Journal of the Indian Society of
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6. Ramakrishna, G. (2013). Temporal variations in area, production and productivity of rice crop in three regions of Andhra
Pradesh. M.Sc (Ag) Thesis submitted to Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh.

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