Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of The Verde Island Passage, Philippines

Climate change
vulnerability
assessment
of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines
For more information on the Verde Island Passage Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact:
Emily Pidgeon, PhD

Director, Marine Climate Change Program
Conservation InternationalGlobal Marine Division
[email protected]
Rowena Boquiren, PhD

Socioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) Leader
Conservation InternationalPhilippines
[email protected]
Conservation International
2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500
Arlington, VA 22202 USA
Web: www.conservation.org
This document should be cited as: R. Boquiren, G. Di Carlo,

and M.C. Quibilan (Eds). 2010. Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines.
Technical report. Conservation International, Arlington,
Virginia, USA.
Science Communication Team

Photo credits
Teri Aquino
CI/photo by Michelle Encomienda
CI/photo by Jrgen Freund Tim Carruthers and Jane Hawkey
CI/photo by Haraldo Castro
Tim Carruthers
Leonard J McKenzie
CI/photo by Miledel C. Quibilan
Integration & Application Network
Benjamin De Ridder, Marine Photobank rembss, Flickr University of Maryland Center for
CI/photo by Giuseppe Di Carlo Badi Samaniego
Google Earth CI/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn Environmental Science
Keith Ellenbogen www.ian.umces.edu
ii
Preface
The Verde Island Passage, in the sub-national area of dependent upon them. The assessment evaluated the
Luzon in the northern Philippines, is located within the vulnerability of the Verde Island Passage to climate
globally significant Coral Triangle, an area considered change and determined the priority actions needed to
the center of the worlds marine biodiversity. The Verde ensure that its ecosystems and coastal societies can
Island Passage is a conservation corridor that spans adapt to future climate conditions.
five provinces: Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental
Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon. The abundant This study brought together experts on the Verde Island
fish and charismatic megafauna support over 7 million Passage marine environment, climate scientists, social
people in those provinces, whose livelihoods include scientists, government officials, and local stakeholders,
fishing, aquaculture, and tourism. all working under a common agenda: the need to
maintain and increase the resilience of biodiversity of
It is projected that climate change will cause rising sea this area.
levels, higher ocean temperatures, and more acidic
waters. As the ocean largely regulates the climate, This report contains the scientific studies that underpin
changes in ocean temperatures and currents are the immediate and substantial actions needed
already altering the frequency, intensity, and distribution to increase the adaptive capacity of Verde Island
of storms, floods, heat waves, and the amount and Passages ecosystems and the people that depend on
distribution of rainfall. The unique biodiversity of the them. Adapting to climate change is the only solution
Verde Island Passage is at risk. In addition, the loss of to ensure ecosystems and human societies can
biodiversity directly impacts its local communities, as survive and maintain their wellbeing when exposed to
their livelihoods are dependent primarily on tourism, climate change impacts. These studies will support
fisheries, and agriculture, all of which are dependent on the development of climate-smart plans for the local
these threatened natural resources. governments of the Verde Island Passage.
In September 2008, Conservation International, Conservation International and it partners are

in cooperation with several partners, conducted a committed to continue to support their efforts towards
vulnerability assessment to gauge the likely impacts ensuring the biodiversity of the Verde Island Passage
of climate change on marine ecosystems of the Verde is protected and can adapt to future conditions for the
Island Passage and the human communities that are benefit of the society and its future generations.
Romeo B. Trono
County Executive Director
Conservation InternationalPhilippines

iii
Acknowledgements
This document is the result of a collective effort and
would not have been possible without the contributions
of many people and organizations. Conservation
International would like to acknowledge the work of the
faculty and researchers of the Marine Science Institute,
University of the PhilippinesDiliman, and De La Salle
University: Niva Gonzales, Rina Rosales, Miledel C.
Quibilan, Sheila Vergara, Michelle Reyes, and Annabelle
Trinidad.
This work would not have been possible without the

kind support and contribution of the Presidential
Task Force on Climate Change of the Government
of the Philippines, the Provincial Government of
Batangas, the Provincial Governments of Occidental
and Oriental Mindoro, the Provincial Government of
Marinduque, the Provincial Government of Romblon,
and all their Municipal Governments, the Department of
Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA).
We also express our gratitude to each of the

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Workshop
participants and their home institutions, and to the
numerous staff at Conservation International who
provided feedback and input in several stages of this
project.
iv
Table of contents
Chapter 1: Vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and
fisheries to climate change in the Verde Island Passage.................................1
Executive summary........................................................................................................................2
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................6
Study area......................................................................................................................................6
Hazards............................................................................................................................................8
Exposure.......................................................................................................................................... 13
Sea surface temperature in the Verde Island Passage................................................... 13
Wave exposure........................................................................................................................... 13
Coastal erosion.......................................................................................................................... 16
Marine flooding........................................................................................................................... 20
Exacerbating features of the Verde Island Passage......................................................... 21
Sensitivity........................................................................................................................................ 22
Habitat and data description................................................................................................... 22
Method of assessing sensitivity............................................................................................. 24
Sea surface temperature impact............................................................................................ 26
Storm impact............................................................................................................................... 27
Sea level rise impact................................................................................................................. 27
Adaptive capacity......................................................................................................................... 30
Vulnerability.................................................................................................................................... 33
Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to diversity.......................................................... 33
Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to fisheries.......................................................... 35
Vulnerable areas vs. ecologically critical or sensitive areas........................................... 40
Recommendations........................................................................................................................41
Research and monitoring imperatives...................................................................................41
Scenarios for adaptation.......................................................................................................... 42
Recommendations and next steps........................................................................................ 42
Early response and immediate managment recommendations..................................... 44
References...................................................................................................................................... 45
Chapter 2: Human well-being and climate change in the

Verde Island Passage: vulnerability assessment for adaptation................ 47
Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 48
Objective...................................................................................................................................... 48
Methodology.................................................................................................................................. 49
Results and discussion.............................................................................................................. 52
Profile of the Verde Island Passage...................................................................................... 52
Vulnerability assessment of human well-being.................................................................. 64
Conclusions and recommendations..................................................................................... 75
Fisheries....................................................................................................................................... 75
Tourism sector............................................................................................................................. 76
Foreshore development........................................................................................................... 76
Health and food safety............................................................................................................. 76
References...................................................................................................................................... 78
Chapter 3: Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts......................... 79
Chapter 4: Outreach and communication strategy................................................................. 83

Executive summary..................................................................................................................... 84
Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 85
About the workshops............................................................................................................... 85
Results.............................................................................................................................................. 86
Preliminary workshops............................................................................................................. 86
Vulnerability assessment workshop..................................................................................... 87
Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 92
References...................................................................................................................................... 93
v
vi
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change
Chapter 1:
Vulnerability assessment of
marine ecosystems and fisheries
to climate change in the Verde
Island Passage
Laura T. David1, Lead Integrator
Contributing Authors: Porfirio Alino1, Vera Christine Horigue1, Wilfredo Licuanan2, Samuel Mamauag1, Evangeline
Magdaong1, Eileen Penaflor1, Riovie Ramos1, Maricar Samson1, Fernando Siringan1, Leah Soria1, Victor Ticzon1,
Cesar Villanoy1
1 Marine Science Institute, College of Science, University of the PhilippinesDiliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2 De La Salle University, 2407 Taft Avenue, Manila, Philippines
1
climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines
Executive summary
This report synthesizes the five studies of the likelihood of inundation; and,
Vulnerability Assessment of Marine Biodiversity additional naturally occurring exacerbating features.
and Related Human Well-Being in the Verde Island
Passage project funded by the Conservation Sensitivity studies focused on qualifying impacts
International. Implemented by researchers from the of increase in sea surface temperature (SST),
Marine Science Institute of the University of the storminess, and sea level rise to corals, seagrasses,
Philippines and De La Salle University, the research and mangroves. While the ecological adaptive capacity
activities focused on the characterization of the was investigated using a change detection over a time
geological, physical and biological environment and series of remotely sensed images as a proxy for the
fisheries of the Verde Island Passage (VIP). The ability of the system to withstand an impact.
objective was to determine the vulnerability of the VIP
marine biodiversity to impacts of climate change, which Together these exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
included changes in ocean temperature, sea level rise, capacity give insight to the Verde Island Passage
and increased frequency of more devastating typhoons. vulnerability to climate change. In particular, the study
highlighted the effect of climate change to coral and
Rationale reef fish diversity and consequently also to fisheries.
The Verde Island Passage, located in the Sulu- Pertinent results

Sulawesi Seascape is the area of interest since it has
been identified as a Marine Biodiversity Conservation A 0.15-0.30C/decade sea surface temperature
Corridor as identified under Ong et al. 2002 and EO increase in the VIP region was seen over the last
578. Based on the recent coral reef assessments 2 decades. In general in the VIP, coastal areas
by CIPhilippines, 319 coral species belonging to experienced less increase relative to areas offshore.
74 coral genera have been observed in the passage However, embayed areas were observed to be more
(CI 2009). Carpenter and Springer (2005) noted susceptible to prolonged extreme heating events most
that more than half of the documented fish species likely due to longer residence time of warm water within
worldwide overlap in this area of the Philippines. bays as compared to open coasts.
Furthermore, iconic species such as dolphins, whales,
turtles, and whalesharks occur in the passage (Dolar Analysis showed that the probable percentage loss
2006). Moreover, of added significant value to the of live hard coral cover due to increase in ocean
project is the fact that the VIP is the area where the temperature ranged from 3% to 22% across the
State of the Coast has been piloted in the province of Verde Island Passage. The sites deemed to be highly
Batangas hence there exists an opportunity to scale up vulnerable are those with high cover of Acropora
these efforts and at the same integrate within an ICM sp. and pocilloporids. Sites with minimal losses are
approach. mostly dominated by the coral Porites sp. As such, the
municipalities of Mabini and Tingloy have the highest
Description of approach vulnerability with percentage loss of 11% to 22% and
14% to 21% respectively. The municipality of Lubang
The vulnerability analyses of the VIP to the potential had an estimated loss 8% to 15%.
impacts of climate change required considering its
degree of physical and geological exposure, the It should be noted however, that longer-term time series
sensitivity of its coastal habitats, and their inherent SST from HadISST1 (1900-2008 for the VIP) shows
adaptive capacity to cope with such an impact (IPCC a lesser degree of increase of only a 0.06 oC/decade
2007). Because of the particular characteristics of the in the longer-term. In addition, the 10-yr smoothed
VIP, the availability of data and related literature, and and de-trended annual HadISST1 also compares
time constraints, the climate change impacts that were particularly well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
considered for biodiversity were limited to sea surface (PDO) index for the same period with an observed
temperature rise, storminess, and sea level rise. lag of 5-10 years. This observation emphasizes the
telecommunication between the Pacific and the VIP
The research activities on exposure included studying: region and suggests that use of the last 2-3 decades of
data to simulate future scenarios should be interpreted
time series of heating stress; with caution. Specifically, all satellite-derived images
wave and storm surge simulations; go back in time only as far as the last PDO-shift in
historical coastal erosion; 1977 from negative to positive. All synoptic data
2
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : executive summary
available therefore belong to the PDO positive regime. The four sites in the VIP with known seagrass
In 2008, the early stage of a cool phase of the PDO distribution are analyzed to have low sensitivity to
was observed. Aside from the increase in temperature sediment perturbation caused by an increase in storm
averages, the degree and frequency of anomalies might intensity and frequency. The projection may be different
be what is crucial as the succession of effects would if analysis will include eutrophication caused by influx of
prevent its recovery rate and steady increases may freshwater from increased storm/rainfall frequency.
cause more adaptive capacity.
The VIP corridor is within a very tectonically active area
An average of two to three storms passed near the where there are numerous active faults and volcanoes
Verde Island Passage corridor annually. There were no and where earthquakes are very frequent. Liquefaction,
strong typhoons (Category 4-5) in the period before subsidence and tsunami can cause extensive and rapid
1975 but in recent years roughly more than half belong coastal inundation, thus, global sea-level rise would
to the strong typhoon categories. Fortunately, the wave be amplified. On the other hand, land emergence
fetch within Verde Passage is not large because of the or uplift can counter the effect of sea-level rise. The
narrow configuration of the passage thus waves do predominance of net land gain, during a period when
not develop into large waves during typical monsoon sea level is supposed to be rising, can be due to uplift.
conditions or even during storm conditions. The only However, there are no tide gauge records in the VIP
areas prone to surges in Verde Island Passage are corridor that can be examined to test this idea.
those that are exposed to wide areas of water such
as the coastlines facing the Sibuyan Sea (eastern Reef area loss due to sea level rise for the VIP ranges
Batangas, Quezon, and eastern Mindoro coasts) and from 0.38% to 7%. Note that these only apply to the
those facing the South China Sea including Lubang deepest portion of the reef slope. Assuming that the
Island. coral distribution and diversity are even for the entire
reef area, diversity loss obtained using the species area
Storms bring about high sedimentation from the curve estimated 0.60% to 0.80% loss. Specifically,
uplands and potential erosion at the coast. Overall Batangas City and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable with
large sediment supply to the coast results in net land 0.60% to 0.80% diversity loss while the rest of the
gain is observed on most of the delta plains during the municipalities surveyed have relatively lower estimates
last 50 to 60 years. In Batangas, land progradation in of 0.60% to 0.70% diversity loss.
delta plains coincide with periods of high annual rainfall,
while erosion occurred during periods of decreased If sensitivity assessment will be based on the areal
precipitation over the last 40 years. Long steep slopes extent of potential mangrove areas almost all areas
have practically no forest cover, which also promotes included in this report will be inundated with 1m rise
higher sediment yield. In Batangas, where sugarcane in sea level except for the municipalities of San Juan,
is a major agricultural product, erosion is not arrested Batangas and Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
by any structure that would break the flow of surface
runoff resulting in high rates of erosion. Areas such as Overall, Calatagan, followed by Puerto Galera-Naujan
Nasugbu, Balayan, Batangas, Boac, and Calapan that appears stable in that changes to live coral and
experienced rapid accretion in recent years, are also macrophyte cover are minimal through the years. The
the most vulnerable to coastal inundation. However, live coral cover of Batangas East and West Marinduque
coastal erosion in Batangas City and Calapan is also appears stable. The most significant live coral
instead attributed to improperly placed and designed cover loss can be seen for the islands of Lubang and
engineering structures and removal of mangrove Maricaban.
forests; and liquefaction due to tsunami associated with
7.1M 1994 earthquake, respectively. Chlorophyll data within and around the VIP shows the
seasonality of the signal with higher signal during the
Based on the monitoring of reefs east of the NE monsoon. Further investigation of the NE signal
VIP, estimated coral cover losses during tropical shows the higher chlorophyll concentration in the
storm is about 8% to 21%. These projections are western side of the VIP. Sites within the VIP showed
considered conservative. Diversity is already low in a positive chl anomaly during a strong La Nia (1999-
the municipalities surveyed, thereby making them 2001) with a 1 year lag between the eastern and
even more vulnerable to storm events based on the western part. This could have implications in the near
estimates. The municipality of Nasugbu is deemed to be future because PDO negative (in which we are in now)
the most vulnerable of all the sites regardless of low or have been associated with more La Nias.
severe impact. Losses in coral genera will change from
28 to 21.8% during severe impact.
3
In an increasing sea surface temperature, most of The fisheries that are most vulnerable are those
the fisheries target species will be affected through involving fishes that need different habitats throughout
disruption in timing of reproduction, decreased their life stages. For example, Mabini and Lubang/Looc
reproductive output, shorter larval duration, lower recruit have grouper and snapper fisheries. These fishes make
survivorship, and recruitment failure leading to changes use of estuaries, mangroves, seagrasses, corals, and
in fisheries productivity. Impact on critical habitats such the pelagic realm during the different stages in their life.
as coral reefs, seagrasses, and mangroves will affect
the aforementioned attributes of the associated fauna Key recommendations
that include high value target species (e.g., siganids,
groupers, snappers). For sea level rise, some habitats The fisheries ecosystem approach to management
such as mangroves will be inundated that will reduce will need to be put in place as natural links to the
available areas for recruitment of associated fauna that present conservation efforts with the tourism industry.
have fisheries value. In coral reefs, species on shallower Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers
parts (e.g., reef flats) will be affected compared to those and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending
on reef slopes. Increase in frequency and intensity of climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of
storms can greatly affect recruitment of target species our next generations.
through reduction of suitable sites for recruitment and
reduction in abundance and species diversity due to Adaptation mechanisms would require that the
habitat loss and decreased habitat complexity. present CRM programs need to be more tightly
integrated through establishing knowledge based
A total of 16 species of reef fishes listed in Pratchett communities. The various CRM working groups
et al. (2008) was observed in the VIP. Percentage would also need to engage with each other
loss of reef fish species ranged from 9% to 14%. through inter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law
The municipality of Nasugbu was deemed to have the enforcement teams (FLET) and bay management
highest vulnerability as it could lose 16% of the 44 councils or VIP level alliances can be formed.
observed fish species, followed by Looc, Calatagan, Coastal law enforcement will need to integrate
and San Juan with estimated losses of 14%, 12%, and ecosystem management and zoning policy
10% respectively. considerations, e.g., foreshore management,
infrastructure and human settlements regulations
The vulnerability assessment for the fisheries utilizes Based on available literature on the interconnectivity
the information gathered from the literature to identify of mangrove, seagrass and coral reef, protecting
the fisheries resources (target species, fishery stocks) adjacent ecosystems may increase the resilience of
that will be most affected (i.e., vulnerable vis--vis the these ecosystems to the impacts, including that of
prospective climate impacts) by extreme changes in the climate change. Therefore, in sites that have shown
climate. Emphasis was placed upon knowledge of the significant adaptive capacity and at the same time
critical life stages (e.g., larvae, juveniles, reproductive in sites where the fisheries were found vulnerable,
stages) of the species as well as some information on measures must be taken to reduce of prevailing
their catch rates and habitat conditions. It has been threats such as illegal and destructive fishing,
acknowledged that changes in the climate (e.g., rising emerging pollution and habitat degradation from
sea surface temperature, increase in storm frequency, urban and industrial development. Where critical
storm surges) would possibly introduce greatest impact life stages are important it would be important to
upon larval, juvenile and reproductive stages of target consider a combination of establishment of an
species affecting distributional patterns (e.g., Munday expanded protection zone to serve both as a canary
et al. 2008). Target species may also be influenced by for improving adaptive management and (see also
changes in the climate indirectly through habitat loss adaptive management below), and have regulated
and fragmentation (e.g., coral loss through bleaching activities through close and open seasons and
events, inundation of mangroves areas) affecting their gear regulations in conjunction with safety nets and
recruitment, survivorship and abundance (Pratchett et incentives for affected sectors.
al. 2008). The associated habitats of the target species In addition, given that sea level will accelerate in the
were determined as this will allow further examination of coming years and that storms are likely to increase
the conditions of these habitats harboring the critical life in frequency and possibly strengthen, the natural
stages. The presence of habitat types (e.g., seagrass buffers to sea level rise and impact of large waves,
beds, mangroves) that enhances the growth and such as coral reefs and mangroves, should be
survivorship and what drives the population dynamics of protected and rehabilitated.
the species potentially will serve as a gauge or index as Deforestation and extensive agriculture in the
what would be vulnerable to climate change. watersheds, long steep slopes, and presence of
numerous faults, high seismicity, and volcanoes all
4
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : executive summary
promote a high sediment yield. These have likely approach to the climate change adaptation measures.
played a large role in the degradation of coral These would require the formulation of a research,
reef ecosystems and in the decline of coastal and development and extension program that incorporates
offshore fisheries. In the formulation of mitigation an appropriate monitoring design for the impending
and adaptation measures, this link between the potential impacts. It would require the participation of
marine ecosystem and the watershed should be the local higher education institutions to engage with
considered. the relevant stakeholders to build knowledge-based
In some areas, this high sediment yield has resulted communities in the VIP where lessons learned and
to rapid accretion. Instead of utilizing the newly knowledge gained are regularly fed back, e.g., through
prograded lands in the VIP for various development, the State of the Coasts report.
these can instead be used by the LGUs and
national agencies as buffers to erosion and action Targeted research
of large waves. Greenbelts, of the appropriate
assemblage, can be established in these newly Complementary to the monitoring would be a targeted
prograded lands. Wide mangrove plains will also research, development and extension agenda that
reduce the level of nutrients and sediments entering look at how the adaptive capacity of the coastal areas,
the sea and create nursery habitats for fisheries. their ecosystems and fisheries can cope with climate
Erosion along the coast is mostly caused about change. Long-term monitoring together with simulation
by human modifications such as inappropriate models that investigates how to enhance the adaptive
ports, quarrying, and removal of mangroves and capacity (e.g., abundance, coverage and range of
seagrasses. Steps must be taken to position vulnerable ecosystems and habitats) will need to define
ports in such as way as not to impede longshore the priority research questions and their interdisciplinary
sediment drift and advocate constructing open concerns. A network of sensors (e.g., thermal sensors
ports that allow water to flow in between pilings. and weather stations) linked or akin to the ICE CREAM
Stop stone mining and educate people from various program will be useful for the VIP in mainstreaming
strata of the functions of mangroves and coral reefs climate change adaptation measures.
towards the protection of the beach.
Areas that suggest that adaptation measures are

imperative shall be those which are crucial to marine
biodiversity, the life histories of important fisheries
species, and human well-being.
For biodiversity and fisheries, these areas would be

high candidate sites for expanding sizes or establishing
areas as marine protected areas (MPA). This will not
only help in the conservation of existing flora and
fauna but also in the replenishment of fisheries stocks
by regulating fishing effort. In addition to MPA, it is
imperative that adoption of access and use rights
fisheries management interventions are put in place
such as closed and open seasons, gear regulations and
effort controls, combined with access incentives linked
to stewardship (e.g., reserves related to enhancement
and sea ranching of highly valued invertebrates
species).
For human well-being, these areas would also be sites

which deliver multiple services to the community not
only as source of livelihood but also provide protection
from climate-related hazards.
Adaptive management
Considering the constraints on the available information
and the unfolding changes occurring in the VIP, it is
imperative to incorporate an adaptive management
5
Introduction
exposure
The vulnerability analyses of the Verde Island Passage
(VIP) requires considering the components and
measures of potential impacts to and adaptive capacity
increase sea increased
of the critical marine habitats and fisheries (Allison et al. surface sea level
rise
storm
temperature frequency
2009, Worldfish Center 2009). and intensity
The potential impact of climate change to an

ecosystem includes the degree that it is exposed and
its ecological and social-economic state which has sensitivity
an inherent sensitivity to a changing environment. The
adaptive capacity of an ecosystem on the other hand
would depend on their congenital capacity (including target gear
associated symbionts like their zooxanthellae) and species quantity,
distribution,
survival from historical exposures. The focus of study and
dependance
presented here, given the time restrictions and budget on habitats
constraints, is on sensitivity and exposure.
Predictions of changes in temperature, precipitation

and sea level as a result of climate change in the potential impact
and
Philippines are summarized by Hulme and Sheard
adaptive capacity
(1999). These predictions were derived from climate
experiments from several global climate models
conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and historical observed climate data. vulnerability to
Some general climate predictions for the Philippines climate change impacts
include a temperature increase of about 0.1-0.3C/
decade, an enhanced seasonal precipitation variation
(e.g., drier months become drier and wetter months Figure 1. Diagram of each of the elements considered and
how they relate to one another in the assessment.
become wetter) and a slight sea level increase of about
30cm by 2045.
Study area
The goal of this study is to estimate, using the best
available information, oceanographic and climate The Verde Island Passage is an important strait for
change effects and its potential impacts on critical water exchange between the South China Sea and the
marine habitats, threatened species and fisheries in Sibuyan Sea and eventually the Pacific. It also forms
the VIP. Because of the particular characteristics of the a natural boundary between basins. The shallowest
Passage, the availability of data and related literature, and narrowest point of the passage is in the vicinity of
and time constraints, the climate change impacts that the Verde Island (Figure 2). Net flow in Verde Island
were considered for biodiversity were limited to sea Passage is to the west during the northeast monsoon
surface temperature rise, storminess, and sea level rise and to the east during the southwest monsoon (Figure
(Figure 1). 3).
The coasts along the Verde Island Passage corridor

are geomorphologically varied. Cliffed rocky shorelines
occur where steep mountain slopes adjoin the sea. In
some areas, these rocky coastlines are fringed with
narrow sandy or gravelly beach and coral reefs. Narrow
and gently sloping sandy coastal plains develop from
small rivers draining the flanks of volcanoes. Large
rivers, on the other hand, form broad and relatively flat
sandy to muddy delta plains with or without associated
mangroves.
6
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : introduction
0 The Verde Island Passage, located in the Sulu-Sulawesi

-2000
Lubang
Is.
Verde Is.
Passage
Seascape, has been identified as a Marine Biodiversity
-4000 Tingloy Is. Conservation Corridor as identified under Ong et al.
2002 and EO 578. Based on the recent coral reef
assessments by CIPhilippines, 319 coral species
14.0
belonging to 74 coral genera have been observed
in the passage (CI 2009). Carpenter and Springer
(2005) noted that more than half of the documented
13.5
Verde Is. fish species worldwide overlap in this area of the
Philippines. Furthermore, iconic species such as
dolphins, whales, turtles, and whalesharks occur in the
Passage (Dolar 2006).
13.0
119.6 119.8 120.0 120.2 120.4 120.6 120.8 121.0 121.2 121.4
Surrounding VIP are 5 provinces: Batangas, Mindoro
Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, Quezon, and Marinduque
Figure 2. Bathymetry of the Verde Island Passage. (Figure 4) with a total population of 7,800,175 (as of
2007).
120E 122E 120E 122E
Figure 3. Schematic of seasonal circulation during the

northeast monsoon (left) and the southwest monsoon (right)
around Mindoro (Han et al. 2009).
3 18
5 6
7 17
4 19
8 16 20
1 9 12
10
2 15
11 13
14
34
35
33 21
31
32
30 22
29 28
23
27 24
26
25
0 14 28 km
N
Figure 4. The municipalities surrounding the VIP (clustered by Province) in clockwise order: Batangas Province (1-15; 34,
35) Lubang(1), Looc(2), Lian(3), Calatagan(4), Balayan(5), Calaca(6), Lemery(7), Taal(8), San Luis(9), Bauan(10), Mabini(11),
Tingloy (34), San Pascual(12), Batangas City(13), Verde Island (35), Lobo(14), San Juan(15); Quezon Province (16-20)
Sariaya(16), Lucena(17), Pagbilao(18), Padre Burgos (19), Agdangan(20); MarinduqueProvince (21-24) MogPog(21),
Boac(22), Gasan(23), Buenavista(24); Mindoro Oriental (25-31) Pinamalayan(25), Pola(26), Naujan(27), Calapan(28),
Baco(29), San Teodoro(30), Puerto Galera(31); Mindoro Occidental (32, 33) Abra de Ilog(32), Paluan(33).
7
Hazards
Among the components of climate change that 14N
may affect marine biodiversity include temperature,

storminess, precipitation, sea-level rise, air-sea CO2
concentration, changes in ocean circulation patterns,
health of functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, as
well as, human responses to climate change (Gilman 13N
et al. 2008). Knowledge of the extent or severities

of vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats are
needed in the formulation of mitigation and adaptation
measures. 12N
120E 121E 122E 123E
Increase in ocean temperature 1985-2005 Trends (C/decade)

Philippine-wide sea surface temperature (SST) has 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
experienced an average increase of about 0.025C/

Figure 6. SST increase (C/year) in the Verde Island Passage
year. However, the increase has not been spatially from 1985-2006.
homogenous with areas in the northern tip of Luzon and
eastern Visayas increasing the fastest while the lowest
increase is found in western Mindanao (Figure 5). Overall, SST anomalies exhibited inter-annual variability.
This was explored by comparing the Maximum SST
21N
calculated for each year with the long-term average
annual maximum SST (also referred to as the BaseMax
0.035
as defined by NOAACRW) (Figure 7). The BaseMax
18N is calculated using the entire data set but without the
identified anomalous years 1987-88, 1992-93, 1998-
15N
0.03 99, 2001-02. Results show significantly warmer SST
occurred in the VIP during transition from a strong
El Nio to a strong La Nia (i.e., 1987 and 1998
latitude
0.025
12N determined from Nio 3.4 data from the ENSO region
in the middle of the Pacific). The annual variability is
9N
0.02
further highlighted using spatially-explicit difference
between the Maximum SST for the year and the
0.015
BaseMax (Figure 8). Again, 1987 and 1998 are seen
6N as significantly warm years for the VIP, along with 1992,
2001, and 2005.
114E 117E 120E 123E 126E 129E
longitude
Figure 5 SST increase (C/year) from 1985-2005 (taken 2.5
from ICE-CREAM Proj.1 mid-term report). 2.0
1.5
For the Verde Island Passage, the study on sea 1.0
surface temperature utilized the 1985-2006 gap- 0.5

SST anomaly
filled, 4 km resolution, weekly SST product developed 0

by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
AdministrationCoral Reef Watch (NOAACRW). The -0.5
NOAA AVHRR 22-year data showed a 0.15-0.30 oC/ -1.0
decade increase in the VIP region (Figure 6). In general -1.5

in the VIP, coastal areas experienced less increase
relative to areas offshore. The only exception to this -2.0
Nio 3.4
observation is the northeast side of Occidental Mindoro -2.5 VIP
and the northwestern tip of Lubang Island. Offshore

of Calatagan in western Batangas is also exceptional Figure 7. Nio 3.4 region SST anomalies compared to VIP 5
month running mean. Highlighted beyond the gray shading
since it is the only site that shows near-zero increase in
are anomalies > ENSO +0.5 C.
the last 22 years.
8
I. 1985-1990 Maximum SST anomaly

II. 1991-1996
III. 1997-2002
IV. 2003-2005 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8
Figure 8. Annual maximum SST anomaly: Max SST-basemax.

a)
Longer-term time series SST from HadISST1 (1900- 29.5
2008 for the VIP) shows a lesser degree of increase of

only a 0.06C/decade in the longer-term (Figure 9a). 29.0
HadISST1 is an interpolated SST global product of

the UK Met Office Hadley Centre which makes use of
SS
28.5
both in situ SST observations from ships and buoys,

and bias-adjusted SST from the satellite-borne AVHRR 28.0
(inclusion started in 1982) (Rayner et al. 2003).

27.5
The 10-yr smoothed and de-trended annual HadISST1

1900
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
(Figure 9b) also compares particularly well with the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index for the same b) 0.20
period (Figure 9c) (http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ 0.15
PDO.latest) with an observed lag of 5-10 years. 0.10
This observation emphasizes the telecommunication
SST (detrended)
0.05
between the Pacific and the VIP region and suggests 0
that use of the last 2-3 decades of data to simulate -0.05
future scenarios should be interpreted with caution. -0.10
Specifically, all satellite-derived images go back in time -0.15

smoothed detrended annual SST
only as far as the last PDO-shift in 1977 from negative -0.20
to positive. All synoptic data available therefore belong

1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
to the PDO positive regime. In 2008, the early stage

of a cool phase of the PDO was observed. There are c) 2.5 1.0
no long-term synoptic data or satellite-derived data to 2.0
annual mean PDO index
0.8
represent the this cool phase. 1.5 0.6
smoothed annual PDO
1.0 0.4
annual PDO
Increase in cyclonicity 0.5

0
0.2
0
High SST fuels creation of storms. The Philippines, in -0.5 -0.2
particular, lies at the western boundary of the Pacific -1.0 -0.4
and typically experiences more than 20 typhoons per -1.5 -0.6
year. Patterns of typhoon generation and propagation -2.0

-2.5 smoothed annual mean PDO index
-0.8
-1.0
in the western North Pacific have been shown to be
related to the ENSO cycle as well as to other large Figure 9. HadISST1 data for the VIP: a) annual mean SST;
scale atmospheric circulation (Camargo et al. 2007). b) 10-yr smoothed and detrended annual HadISST1; and c)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (1900-2008).
Analysis of western Pacific Typhoon track data that
9
passed through the Philippines indicate a southward a)

shift in the typhoon trajectories in the past decade
16N
(Anglo 2005) and an increased relative frequency of

typhoons generated in the South China Sea (Ho et al. 15N
2004) (Figure 10). Several investigators however, have
indicated the high natural variability of tropical storms
and typhoons, which makes it difficult to detect long 14N
term changes that can be attributed to climate change.
latitude
The Verde Island Passage lies within the track of most 13N
of the typhoons in the western Pacific and it is during
these events that sea conditions can become rough.
Historical typhoon track data (Figure 11a) show that 12N
160 typhoons passed to within 200 km of the VIP

from 1952-2008 (Japan Meteorology Agency 2009)
amounting to about 11% of the total tropical cyclones 11N
in the Western Pacific since the 1950s. The typhoon 119E 120E 121E
longitude
122E 123E 124E
track data within 200 km from VIP are shown in (Figure b) 16N
11b). The color of the data points represent year with 2005
blue as the oldest (1952) and dark red as the most 2000
recent (2008), and the size is scaled according to 15N

the storm category. It can be seen that there were no
1995
strong typhoons (Category 4-5) in the period before 1990
1975 and for the most recent years (dark red points), 14N 1985
roughly more than half belong to the strong typhoon

latitude
categories.
1980
1975
13N
From the JWTC dataset which starts after WWII, an 1970
average of two to three storms passed near the Verde

Island Passage corridor annually. However, there were 12N
1065
some years when at least six typhoons crossed the 1960
area. The highest occurrence was in 1993 with eight 1955
storms (Figure 12). 11N

119E 120E 121E 122E 123E 124E
longitude
Figure 11 a) Plot of typhoon tracks from 1950- 2009; and b)

40N
1.0
Storm track data from 1952-2008 within 200 km from Verde
Island. Size of points scaled to storm category (2-5) while
0.8
0.6
0.4
color is scaled to year. (Data source: Japan Meteorology
0.2
Agency 2009).
latitude
0
20N
-0.2
8
-0.4
-0.6 6
frequency
-0.8
4
0N -1.0
100E 120E 140E 160E 2

longitude
0
Figure 10. Number of tropical cyclones are increasing in the
Pacific and significantly passing through the middle of the 1940 1950 1960 1970
year
1980 1990 2000 2010
Philippines (Anglo 2005).

Figure 12. Storm frequency within a 200 km radius from
Calapan, Mindoro. Data is from JWTC.
10
Changes in rainfall consequence of excessive land reclamation, possible

PAGASA precipitation records from Calapan, subsidence due to groundwater extraction and residual
Mindoro and Ambulong, Batangas for the period rise in sea-level due to warmer oceans.
1961 to 2004 show that annual rainfall fluctuates
from 1000 to 3500 mm (Figure 13). The two records Altimetry data from the satellites TOPEXPoseidon
display similar seasonal fluctuations but opposing (1992-2005) and JASON1 (2001-present) gives a
long-term precipitation trends over the 43-year time series of offshore sea level on either side of Verde
period. Annual rainfall has increased in Calapan, but passage (Figure 15). Both sides have undergone
Ambulong shows an overall decrease. This highlights changes fluctuating around mean sea level with the
the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and the need for eastern side of the passage being more variable.
more monitoring stations. More specifically, there is Since 2005, there seems to be a more steady positive
a need for meteorological stations distributed along increase of about 1.0 mm/yr on the east and 0.5 mm/yr
representative coastal areas of the VIP. on the west.
Sea level rise These offshore altimetry observations however are not
The Global Sea Level Observing System has two sites enough to determine site-specific relative sea level rise.
in the Philippines (i.e., Manila and Legaspi). Both of Unfortunately, there are no long-term tide gauge data
these coastal data show a relative sea-level increase along the VIP. This poses a problem for local decision
of between 20cm and 40cm since the 1960s (Figure development planning.
14). This observed rise is most likely a compounded
a)
10
west
3500
8
6
3000
4
mean sea level (mm)
2500
2
annual rainfall (mm)
0
2000
-2
1500 -4
-6
1000
-8
-10
500 Calapan, Mindoro
Ambulong, Batangas
0
b) 10
east
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
8
year
6
Figure 13. Annual rainfall from 1961 to 2004 for Calapan,
4
Mindoro and Ambulong, Batangas. Data is from PAGASA.
mean sea level (mm)
740 0
-2
-4
720
-6
relative sea level (cm)
-8
700 -10
Figure 15. SSH time series from satellite altimetry.

680
660
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
Figure 14. Relative annual-mean sea-level for Manila, South

Harbour, (blue; 1901-1997; 14.58N, 120.93E)
and Legaspi (red; 1947-1997; 13.15N, 123.75E) in the
Philippines. (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/research/
philippines.pdf)
11
Ocean acidification
Increasing dissolved CO2 in ocean water results to
a decrease in ocean pH. This has been observed
in Manoa Lua-Pacific time series (Figure 16a). The
decrease in pH is projected to cause harm in marine
life ocean fisheries and mariculture (Cooley and Doney
2009, Pew Center 2009).
The problem is that there are no available long-term

data for the Philippines and therefore it is not part of
any future prediction scenarios (Figure 16b).
a)
400 8.38
atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
seawater pCO2 (uatm) 8.33
375
seawater pH
8.28
350
CO2
pH
8.18
325
8.13
300
8.08
275 8.03
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
b)
Figure 16. a) Observed decrease in ocean pH. Figure credit:

Richard A. Feely, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA,
with atmospheric data from Pieter Tans and seawater data
from David Karl. Adapted from Feely (2008) in Levinson and
Lawrimore (eds), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 89(7): S58; and
b) Ocean acidification model 2040 from http://colli239.fts.
educ.msu.edu/?p=19864.
12
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure
Exposure
SST in the Verde Island Passage
From the satellite-determined 2009 coral cover in
the Verde Island Passage (VIP), representative sites
were chosen for thermal stress analysis. For a total of
10 sites, accumulated hotspots and degree heating
months were calculated. Accumulated hotspots
Max DHM
pertain to the number of times in a given year that the 1985-1989
temperature reached at least 1 degree higher than 1990-1994
maximum mean monthly climatological sea surface 1995-1999
temperature (SST). Degree heating months pertain to 2000-2005
number of times the accumulated hotspots lasted for at Figure 18. Degree Heating Months from 1985-2005 for 10
least one month in a given year. representative sites in the VIP.
Results show that 1998 was definitely a warm year The embayments of east Calumpan, west Batangas
for all of the sites. Lubang in particular, located in Bay, and Naujan-Gloria suffered the highest occurrence
the western extent of the VIP has also constantly of DHM in 1998. In general, therefore it seems that
experienced warm events through the years (Figure reefs in more embayed areas may be more susceptible
17). Surviving live corals in these areas could be to prolonged extreme heating events most likely due
already adapted to warm anomalies and are therefore to longer residence time of warm water within bays as
good candidates for protection if the aim is to have at compared to open coasts.
least one remaining surviving site in the VIP in case of
continued ocean warming. In contrast Naujan-Gloria Wave exposure
and Marinduque located in the eastern extent seems to
be the least prone to warm anomalies (except for the Wave and storm surge models were used to simulate
1998 event). conditions during natural low (non-storm events) and
high (storm events) energy conditions. The wave model
DHMs show areas where hotspots lasted for at least was based on third-generation SWAN (Simulating
one month in a given year (Figure 18). This prolonged WAves Nearshore) while the storm surge used the
heating is an index of likely mass bleaching occurrences 2-dimensional Delft3D Flow model, both developed by
in the last 20 years. Sites in the middle of the passage Delft University of Technology (DELFT3D Hydraulics).
seem to suffer more frequent DHMs. Interestingly, Both models were computed on a horizontal orthogonal
although Lubang intermittently experience warm curvilinear grid. The wave model made use of coarse
anomalies, it was the only one that did not suffer from and high resolution nested grids in order to obtain
a DHM event during the 1998 event. It did however, wave and wind conditions in the open boundary of the
experience a DHM event in 1985 when none of the high resolution grid. The coarse grid model covers the
other sites did so. In contrast, sites on the eastern northern coast of Lubang Island (western boundary)
VIP (Batangas East, Marinduque, and Naujan-Gloria) extending to the southern tip of Masbate. The high
experienced DHM at no other time but the 1998 event. resolution grid model occupies offshore of Lubang
Island (western boundary) extending to Verde Island
Passage up to the southern tip of Quezon and eastern
coast of Mindoro (southern boundary). Finer grids were
nested to the high resolution grid to investigate wave
energy propagation in specific areas such as Balayan
Bay and Batangas Bay. Wave and wind forcings
imposed at the open boundaries were obtained from
the available typhoon track analysis (JMA) and archive
forecast data (www.buoyweather.com derived from
1985-1989 WAVEWATCH III of NOAA).
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2005
Figure 17. Accumulated HOTSPOTS from 1985-2005 for

10 representative sites in the VIP.
13
Historical data off Lubang Island shows a strong Compared to typhoon intensities east of the Philippines,
correlation between winds and waves in the study typhoons passing near the Verde Island Passage are
area (Figure 19). Wind speeds are generally stronger weaker because typhoons start to lose some of its
(8-10 ms-1) during the northeast monsoon months energy as it passes over land. The storm surge potential
(November-March). Southwest monsoon (June- was therefore simulated by onshore winds blowing
October) wind speeds are weaker (<5 ms-1) but are at wind speeds 20 m/s or roughly 40 knots (72kph)
interrupted by spikes in wind speeds associated with depicting a typical typhoon condition within the VIP.
typhoons. The northeast monsoon dominates the wind
field at this location. Consequently, the wind forcing The predicted storm surge showed an overall sea
used for the monsoon wind wave simulations was level rise by only 0.01 m to 0.04 m at the west of VIP
based on the mean northeast monsoon wind velocities (Figure 21). The coastline topography shelters most
and was assumed to be spatially uniform because not of the Verde Passage from large waves. Areas prone
enough weather data are available within the VIP to to surges in Verde Island Passage are those that are
resolve spatial variations. exposed to wide areas of water such as the coastlines
facing the Sibuyan sea (eastern Batangas, Quezon and
Wave simulations were conducted during the monsoon eastern Mindoro coasts) and those facing the South
season for three selected years: 1997, 1998, and China Sea including Lubang Island.
2008. Overall, the wave fetch within Verde Passage is
not large because of the narrow configuration of the To examine the effect of extreme storm winds on
passage thus waves do not develop into large waves waves within the Verde Passage, the waves during two
during typical monsoon conditions. The significant periods in the life of Category 5 Typhoon Nia in 1987
wave height field showed an inter-annual variation very were simulated with a maximum wind speed of around
similar to the wind strength; the wave height was lowest
(0.25 m) in 1998, followed by 0.35 m wave height in
1997, and highest in 2008 at 0.5 m (Figure 20). The x 106
water level (m)
18 Jun 2008 06:00:00
0.04
1.60
weakening of monsoonal winds thereby dropping of 0.03
wave heights in 1998 may be associated to ENSO

events which alters the large scale monsoonal system. 1.55 0.02
0.01
y coordinate (m)
wave height TS = tropical storm 1.50

0
wind speed TY = typhoon
4 TS Julian 20
TY Frank TY Ofel -0.01

16 1.45
wind speed (m/s)
3 TY Cosme
wave height (m)
12 -0.02
2
8 1.40
-0.03
1
4
-0.04
0 0 1.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 105 -0.05
month x coordinate (m)
Figure 19. 2008 daily average wind speed and wave height Figure 21. Sea level distribution forced by northeasterly
off Lubang Is. showing positive response to typhoon events. winds blowing at 40 knots.
0.50
0.45
hsig wave height (m) hsig wave height (m) hsig wave height (m)
x 106 08 Nov 1997 00:00:00 08 Nov 1998 00:00:00 08 Nov 2008 00:00:00
0.40
1.60
0.35
1.55
0.30
y coordinate (m)
1.50
0.25
1.45
0.20
1.40 0.15
1.35
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 105 x coordinate (m) x 105 x 105
x coordinate (m) x coordinate (m)
Figure 20. Significant wave height in the Verde Island Passage for 1997 (left), 1998 (middle), and 2008 (right).
14
80 knots. Even during this high intensity event, winds For the second period used was after a period of 6
within the Verde Passage move across the passage hours, the typhoon has moved westwards and the
thus fetch is limited and waves do not become fully center can be found west of Puerto Galera. Maximum
developed. The maximum significant wave heights significant wave heights can still be found in the
were about 10m and were found in the area east and northwestern Sibuyan Sea along the coast of Batangas
northeast of Marinduque. and Quezon (Figure 23a). Wave heights within the
VIP although quite large, are still much lower than the
For the first period, the center of the storm can be maximum significant wave heights.
seen in the area west of Marinduque with relatively low
significant wave heights (Figure 22a). Within the Verde Surprisingly the areas with high bottom orbital velocities
Passage, waves can still be significant (8m) although are essentially the same as the model results 6 hours
smaller in magnitude compared to the waves in the earlier (Figure 23b). These areas have two things in
Sibuyan Sea. An estimate of the amount of wave energy common; shallow gently sloping bathymetries and wide
available at the coast to stir up sediments and infer expanse of water facing the coast.
erosion potential is the plot of bottom orbital velocity
(Figure 22b). Note that the largest values of orbital With almost 160 typhoons going through within 200 km
velocity are found in areas with shallow gently sloping from Verde Island since 1952, it becomes necessary
bathymetry such as along the coast of Tayabas Bay and to integrate the effects of all these typhoons to assess
the northern coast of Lubang. the vulnerability with regards to storminess. This was
a) b)
20' 9 20'
0.9
8 0.8
14N 14N
7 0.7
40' 6 40' 0.6

latitude
latitude
5 0.5
20' 20'
4 0.4
3
13N 13N 0.3
2 0.2
40' 40'
1 0.1
120E 30' 121E 30' 122E 30' 120E 30' 121E 30' 122E 30'
longitude longitude
Figure 22. Simulations for a category 5 typhoon when storm was still on the eastern side of the VIP. a) Significant wave height
during typhoon with center west of Marinduque, and b) Bottom orbital velocity during typhoon with center west of Marinduque.
a) b)
20' 9 20'
0.9
8 0.8
14N 14N
7 0.7
40' 6 40' 0.6

latitude
latitude
5 0.5
20' 20'
4 0.4
3
13N 13N 0.3
2 0.2
40' 40'
1 0.1
120E 30' 121E 30' 122E 30' 120E 30' 121E 30' 122E 30'
longitude longitude
Figure 23. Simulations for a category 5 typhoon when storm was still on the western side of the VIP. a) Significant wave
height (m) during a typhoon with the center located near Puerto Galera, and b) Bottom orbital velocity (ms-1) from wave model
forced by typhoon with center west of Puerto Galera.
15
done by getting the frequency of storm track data or the western part of the Verde Passage. In general,
points along a grid over the VIP and running wave the areas where the largest waves are found are also
simulations for storm locations at the center of each the areas where wave fetch is longer (i.e., more wide
grid. The resulting wave fields were then averaged open ocean area) thus waves have sufficient time and
weighted by their frequency. The resulting average distance for it to fully develop.
wave heights are shown in Figure 24 . Note that the
highest average wave heights are found in the Sibuyan Coastal erosion
Sea to the east of Verde Passage covering the eastern
coast of Batangas, the northeast coast of Mindoro and The coastal response to rising sea level is controlled by
the western coast of Marinduque. The next highest the balance between the underlying lithology, coastal
wave heights are found in areas to the east of Lubang gradient, sediment supply, and exposure to coastal
processes such as tides and waves. Continuing rise in
sea level will cause coastal erosion or enhance that are
20'
6
already occurring. Low lying coastal plains will likewise
be affected by seawater inundation, flooding, and storm
14N
5
surges, which will cause drastic changes to coastal
habitats, infrastructures, and livelihood. The possible
40' contribution of sediment supply and wave processes to
4
shoreline changes was explored.
latitude
20'
3
Only wide coastal plains were included in the work
13N
because changes in shoreline positions there are
2 amenable to analysis using satellite images. Where
rivers are small or absent, the changes in shoreline
position cannot be resolved using the resolution of
40'
1
120E 30' 121E 30' 122E 30' available satellite images.

longitude
Figure 24. Average wave height field calculated from storm

frequency and location of historical storms within the Verde
Passage.
Lian RiverNasugbu
The sandy linear coast fronting Nasugbu Bay, from Wawa to
San Diego Point, is about 5 km long and has an associated
coastal plain that is more than 250 m wide (Figure 25). The
satellite images show a more seaward shoreline position than
that of the 1979 topographic map. Sometime between 1979
and 1992, Lian river shifted its course about 1.2 km northward
from its previous position. Maximal progradation of 250 m has
occurred within the area of the new river mouth. Progradation
decreases away from the river mouth.
Figure 25. Changes in shoreline position

along Lian-Nasugbu coast.
16
Banabang-Molino RiverBalayan
Banabang-Molino is one of the watersheds
draining Balayan (Figure 26). The satellite
images show a net land gain of about
100 meters just near its river mouth. The
coast east of Balayan, on the other hand,
which is relatively straight and dissected
by several small rivers, shows both erosion
and progradation brought about by human
modifications. Between 1953 and 1992,
Dacanlao River appears to have shifted
from a slightly meandering to a straight
channelfrom a NE-SW orientation to a
more north-south position. This change in
channel course is probably man-made and
is probably related to land modifications
during the establishment of the Calaca
Figure 26. Changes in shoreline position along Banabang-Molino- power plant. Progradation by as much as
Balayan coast. 80 meters appears to have occurred at the
river mouth. However, this progradation
is likely to due to the river straightening. Before 2002, coastal modifications were made off the power plant
complex. These coastal modifications led to ~200 m erosion and ~200 m progradation west and east of the
power plant, respectively.
Pansipit RiverLemery
Pansipit River, which drains Taal Lake,
is located northeast of Balayan Bay.
Downstream, Pansipit River splits into
two with one of the distributaries passing
through the built-up area of Lemery (Figure
27). The coastal plain is relatively wide
at about 1.2 km. Progradation of about
80 m occurred between the 1950s and
1992. The northern river mouth also shifted
towards the northwest. Erosion, reaching
40 m in front of the built-up area, ensued
between 1992 and 2002. The following
years from 2002 to 2009, the area has
again prograded by as much as 80 meters.
Overall, from 1950s to present, the
Pansipit River coastal plain shows a net
Figure 27. Changes in shoreline position along Pansipit-Lemery
land gain of as much as 150 m.
coast.
17
Kampumpong RiverBatangas City

Between 1947 to 2009, erosion of about 200 m occurred
along the mouth of Kampungpong River in Batangas City
(Figure 28). Topographic maps reflecting conditions prior to
1947 indicate that mangroves covered this area. However, a
Google Earth image indicates that the mangrove is no longer
there. Removal of the mangrove is likely linked to the erosion.
Large constructions and expansions of piers along the coast of
Batangas City also took place in recent years. These include
the oil refineries of Caltex and Shell located north and south of
the river mouth, respectively; the expanded Batangas pier and
a large excavated land near Santa Clara prior to 2009. These
coastal modifications would have altered the pathways of
sediments resulting to erosion.
Figure 28. Changes in shoreline position

along Kampumpong-Batangas City coast.
Abra de Ilog
The river mouth and flanks of Abra de
Ilog, from 1953 to 2001, show a net land
gain of about 300 m and erosion of ~150
m between 2001 and 2009 (Figure 29).
Erosion is probably due to the construction
of a pier about 2 km east of the river
mouth. Pebble picking activities is most
likely contributing to, if not the main cause,
of the erosion west of the river mouth.
Figure 29. Changes in shoreline position along Abra de Ilog coast.
18
Malaylay-Baco
Erosion of as much as 300-m occurred
along the Baco-Malaylay delta between
1953 and 2001 (Figure 30). From 2001
to 2009, this coastline remained stable.
The erosion prior to 2001 may have been
triggered by liquefaction caused by the
magnitude 7.1 earthquake on a segment
of Lubang Fault, south of Verde Island
on November 15, 1994. This earthquake
also generated a tsunami that inundated
the northeastern coast of Mindoro from
Puerto Galera to Pinamalayan, Baco
islands, and Verde Island (Phil. Insti. Vol.
Seis. 1994). The tsunami also traveled
northwards affecting Batangas Bay and
Lobo (Imamura et al. 1995). Coastal
lowlands along the Calapan Bay including
Figure 30. Changes in shoreline position along Malaylay-Baco
Malaylay, Baco, Wawa, and Baco islands
coast.
were hardest hit by the tsunami of at least
6 m high, flooding areas 50 to 200 m landward. Highest wave run-up of as high as 8.5 m occurred in Baco
Island. The steep coastal gradient also facilitated the strong rundown that caused beach erosion of about 20
m. On the other hand, in the gently sloping delta plains of the Malaylay-Wawa coast, aggradation occurred.
Strong incoming waves scoured sands along the foreshore area and deposited the sediments inland forming
a ridge, which was preserved because of the weakened backflow in relatively flat areas. The rest of Calapan,
San Teodoro, and Puerto Galera experienced tsunami ranging from 2 to 3 m high. Low run-up heights of 0.5
m, 0.9, and 1.2 were respectively observed in Pola, Pinamalayan, and Naujan (Phil. Insti. Vol. Seis. 1994).
Mag-asawang Tubig
From 1950s to 2009, there was a net
land loss at the mouth and net land gain
along the flanks of the Mag-asawang
Tubig River in Naujan, Oriental Mindoro
(Figure 31). This trend is possibly due
to river switching upstream which may
have been induced by differences in
river discharge and amount of sediment
load. The 1977 topographic map
shows that Mag-asawang Tubig directly
drained into the Verde Island Passage
just north of Bgy. Estrella in Naujan. But
recent Google Earth images indicate
that at present, Mag-asawang Tubig
joins the Bucayao River upstream,
before emptying to the Verde Island
Passage through the Silonay River in
Figure 31. Changes in shoreline position along Mag-asawang Tubig-
Naujan coast.
Calapan.
19
Coastal erosion in Batangas City and Calapan

is attributed to improperly placed and designed
engineering structures and removal of mangrove
forests; and liquefaction due to tsunami associated
with 7.1M 1994 earthquake, respectively. Overall, a
net land gain is observed on most of the delta plains
during the last 50 to 60 years. This net land gain is
probably due to the large sediment supply to the coast
that is still able to offset the effect of sea level rise.
Typically, sediment yield increases during high river
discharge events. In Batangas, land progradation in
delta plains coincide with periods of high annual rainfall,
while erosion occurred during periods of decreased
precipitation over the last 40 years. In Mindoro, periods
of high precipitation over the last decade may have
resulted in high discharge events and rain-induced Figure 32. Shaded in red are the areas to be inundated by a
landslides that in turn caused recent shifts in the course 3-m rise of sea level.
of Mag-asawang Tubig River. Consequently, new lands
are being formed along the new river mouth in Calapan as Nasugbu, Balayan, Batangas, Boac, and Calapan
while the old river mouth in Naujan is undergoing that experienced rapid accretion in recent years, are the
erosion. The episode of net erosion from 1990s to most vulnerable to coastal inundation.
early 2000 coincides as well with a period when more
storms passed through the region; the years 1993 and Table 1 summarizes the areas that will likely be
1995 had 8 and 7 storms, respectively. inundated given a 1-m, 2-m, and 3-m sea level rise.
Built-up areas in Balayan and Lemery are vulnerable
The observed net land gain in most of the shorelines even to just 1 and 2-m rise in sea level. Two to 3-m
along the VIP corridor may be beneficial to the rise in sea level will inundate rice fields and coconut
remaining mangrove areas along this corridor such plantations that are about 5 to 10 kilometers further
that it can possibly offset the effect of sea level rise inland, especially in Nasugbu and Calapan.
(Siringan et al., this report). Newly accreted lands may
be a potential landward progression area for mangroves Table 1. Area (ha) to be inundated given a 1-m, 2-m, 3-m sea level rise
given the right condition for its recruitment, settlement (SLR).
and survival. 1-m SLR 2-m SLR 3-m SLR
Marine flooding Batangas

Nasugbu 175.08 519.24 1049.88
Lian 140.86 373.6 676.18
Changes in shoreline positions, over the last 50 years Calatagan 795.21 1227.12 1700.25
Canda, Balayan, Calaca 199.09 552.34 902.26
of coastal plains within the Verde Island Passage (VIP) Lemery, Taal, San Luis 154.64 286.13 504.29
corridor were established through time-series analysis Bauan, Mabini, Tingloy 203.22 358.38 532.62
of maps and remotely sensed images. The likelihood San Nicolas, Batangas City 122.31 242.91 440.37
Lobo 62.28 97.2 152.28
to marine inundation resulting from a 1-m, 2-m, or 3-m San Juan 92.8 152.2 267.31
sea-level rise was estimated from the 30-m Advanced
Mindoro
Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Lubang 413.37 681.39 1069.02
Radiometer (ASTER) data sets. The spatial resolution Paluan 242.28 493.92 837.36
of the images limits the analysis only to coastal plains Abra de Ilog 119.79 220.86 402.84
Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Verde 208.25 364.58 652.76
that cover more than 30 m. In rocky coasts, which are Calapan 110.02 204.43 527.17
typically associated with narrow beaches, the extent of Naujan 217.39 303.16 533.92
inundation is no longer evident. Pola, Pinamalayan 86.85 141.93 262.35
Marinduque 236.75 414.59 649.67

The low-lying coastal plains of Batangas are the
most vulnerable to inundation by a 1 meter rise of sea
level. Based on pixel counts alone, the land that will
be inundated is about 175 ha in Nasugbu, 795 ha in
Calatagan, 199 ha in Balayan, and 122 ha in Batangas
City. Sea level rise of 1 m will predominantly affect the
mangrove and fishpond areas. Two and 3-m (Figure
32) rises of sea level were also mapped. Areas such
20
Exacerbating features of the VIP records in the VIP corridor that can be examined to test
this idea. Relatively loose pyroclastic materials which
The Verde Island Passage (VIP) corridor is within a abound upstream, are easily mobilized downstream
very tectonically active area where there are numerous even by normal river flow. Landslides triggered by
active faults and volcanoes and where earthquakes are earthquakes help in supplying more sediment to the
very frequent (Figure 33). Several volcanoes are also coast.
present in the area including Mt. Taal and Mt. Banahaw
which are both classified as active. At the upstream end of the rivers, long steep slopes
have practically no forest cover, which also promotes
Consequent vertical land movements and tsunamis higher sediment yield. Siltation caused by massive
generated from these earthquakes can modify the deforestation elsewhere in the Philippines cause not
vulnerability of coasts to sea-level rise due to global only shift in species composition but also mortality of
warming. Liquefaction, subsidence and tsunami can seagrasses. In Batangas, where sugarcane is a major
cause extensive and rapid coastal inundation, thus, agricultural product, erosion is not arrested by any
global sea-level rise would be amplified. On the other structure that would break the flow of surface runoff
hand, land emergence or uplift can counter the effect resulting in high rates of erosion. In rice fields, surface
of sea-level rise. The predominance of net land gain, runoff passes through a series of paddies which
during a period when sea level is supposed to be rising, promote settling of sediments before the water reaches
can be due to uplift. However, there are no tide gauge a river thereby lowering the sediment load a bit.
Shape = Magnitude
>7
14N
5-7
3-5
Color = Depth (km)

38 - 75
latitude
75 - 177
117 - 154
13N
154 - 199
> 199
120E 121E 122E

longitude
Figure 33. Tectonic and earthquake epicenter map of the Verde Island Passage
Corridor. The active faults mapped by Phil. Insti. Vol. Seis. are the following:
1-Philippine Fault Zone; 2-WMVF; 3-Lubang Fault; 4-Central Mindoro Fault;
5-Aglubang River Fault; 6-Southern Mindoro Fault; and, 7-Central Marinduque
Fault. Earthquake epicenters were compiled by the NEIC-USGS.
21
Sensitivity
Habitat and data description Table 3. Study sites and municipalities considered in the vulnerability
assessment of the coral and reef fish communities in the Verde Island
Coral Passage.
Coral reefs are the most dominant habitat in the VIP, Municipality Study sites Survey date Researchers
with a total reef area of around 7,031 hectares of which Batangas Grotto Oct-08 CIHilomen et al.
about 1,767 hectares are covered by live coral (Table Napayong
2). Based on the satellite images, the reefs are fringing Pitong Gatang
Promontory/ Matuko Pt.
and generally narrow. The coral reef areas are mostly Calatagan East Sta. Ana May-07 CIMenez and Cabansag
shallow, particularly on inshore areas near the bay Gulod
Karitonan/ Carretunan
heads. Although, some reefs still occur in deep areas South Bagong Silang
particularly in the bay mouths (e.g., Bauan municipality Talisay
in Batangas). The reefs are well developed on the west Tanagan
West Bagong Silang
side of the VIP, particularly in Calatagan (including the West Sta Ana
municipalities of Lian, Calatagan, and Nasugbu) and Looc Antipolo Oct-08 CIMenez et al.
Lubang (including municipalities of Lubang and Looc, East Tabajin

Nagbati
and Ambil Island) areas. On a per province basis, reef Pandan
areas are more extensive in Batangas, compared to Tagbanan
West Tabajin
Mindoro Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, and Marinduque. Lubang Ambil Oct-08 CIMenez et al.
Balagin
Data used for the analysis were obtained from the 2007 East Vigo
Nagtalon
to 2008 surveys of the municipalities surrounding the Tagbak
Verde Island Passage. These data sets were originally West Vigo
Mabini Cazador Pt. Oct-08 CIHilomen et al.
collected from various researchers that were contracted Ligaya North
by Conservation InternationalPhilippines to conduct Ligaya South
marine protected area site identification and monitoring Mainit School
Nasugbu Fuego Point Aug-08 CIMenez and Cabansag
assessments. A total of 41 survey stations belonging Sunset cove
to eight (8) municipalities were considered in this San Juan Catmon Aug-08 CIMenez and Cabansag
Hugom
assessment. Table 3 presents the municipalities and Imelda
survey stations that were included in this study. Kalubkub/ Calubcub
Laiya Aplaya
Laiya Ibabao
Each site indicated in Table 3, were used as replicates Puting Buhangin
to compute for the percentage cover of live hard corals Tikalaan
per municipality. Data used were obtained with the use Tingloy Bonito Island
Devils Pt.
Oct-08 CIHilomen et al.
of video or phototransect methods. Malahibong Manok
Overall status of the coral communities in the Verde

Island Passage fell under the poor category with Table 4. Percentage cover of living hard coral (LHC) per municipality in the
24% mean cover of live hard corals (Table 4). The Verde Island Passage.
municipalities of Mabini, Looc, and Nasugbu had Municipality Year Sites % LHC cover
the highest live hard cover but still fell under the fair
Batangas City 2008 4 12.9
category (Gomez et al. 1994) with percent cover values Calatagan 2007 8 24.2
of 33.8%, 29.4%, and 29.3% respectively. Batangas Looc 2008 6 29.4
Lubang 2008 6 24.8
Mabini 2008 3 33.8
Table 2. Area (ha) of coastal habitat in the Verde Island Passage. Nasugbu 2008 2 29.3
San Juan 2008 8 19.6
Live corals Mixed Overgrown Abiotics Total Tingloy 2008 3 19.2
Bay area LC+DCA+RCK DCA+RCK S+R area Mean 24.2
Lubang Island 572 1118 759 189 2638
Calatagan 560 802 670 146 2178
East Calumpan 16 7
0
0
0
23
8
46
10
City had the lowest percentage of live hard corals with
Batangas Bay West 2
Batangas Bay East 172 168 60 93 493 only 12.9%. The municipalities of Calatagan, Lubang,
Maricaban Island 20 10 2 35 67 San Juan, and Tingloy fell under the poor category
West Marinduque 7 10 0 1 18
Wawa-Paluan 121 104 27 147 399
with covers of 24.2%, 24.8%, 19.6%, and 19.2%
Puerto Galera-Naujan 248 174 48 565 1035 respectively.
Naujan-Gloria 49 68 3 27 147
LClive corals; DCAdead coral with algae; RCKrock; Ssand; Rrubble
22
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : sensitivity
Seagrass all of the sites surveyed. According to this report,

Table 5 lists the number of species and species the multispecies meadows in these islands were
composition in areas around VIP where seagrass comparable with areas in Palawan and Guimaras.
assessment reports were available for this study.
Most of the seagrass areas included in this study Most of the seagrass meadows that surround the
have 8 species except for Puerto Galera which has VIP are in constant threat from overexploitation of its
10 species due to the presence of Halophila minor associated organisms (i.e., sea cucumber, sea urchin),
and H. spinulosa. In a study conducted by Tiquio and coastal developments (i.e., resort establishment) and
Cayabyab (2008) in Calatagan, they reported that the even mangrove afforestation (i.e., Calatagan).
species diversity in this area is comparable with
Cagayancillo, and Balabac, Palawan, however it is less Mangrove
extensive than those areas studied in Palawan. In terms The total area of mangrove forests surrounding the
of abundance, they reported that Calatagan seagrass VIP in Batangas and Oriental Mindoro is 1,494.16
meadows are less dense than Cagayancillo but denser ha, 716.16 ha in Batangas, and 778 ha in Oriental
than Tubbataha and Balabac. Mindoro. Most of these mangrove areas are of the
riverine and fringing types dominated by species of
In an assessment conducted in Lubang Islands, Rhizophora and Avicennia. However, most of these
Occidental Mindoro (Genito et al. 2009), results mangrove areas are near coastal communities and
showed that the percentage seagrass cover in these are being affected by anthropogenic activities such
areas ranged from low to moderate with 46% of the as conversion to fishponds, and resort and port
surveyed sites showing moderate cover, but mostly on establishment.
the low-end values of the range. Thalassia hemprichii
and Cymodocea rotundata were noted in almost Table 6 and Figure 34 present a summary of available
information on the condition of mangrove forests in
the provinces of Batangas and Oriental Mindoro. The
Table 5. Number of species and species composition in Lian and only information available for analysis were the type of
Calatagan, Batangas; Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro; and Lubang, mangrove forest and substrate, areal extent, dominant
Occidental Mindoro.
species and issues and problems affecting these
Municipality No. of species Species composition mangrove areas. No available information on the density
Batangas and other parameters that will characterize the present
Lian 8 Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si mangrove cover in these areas were accessible at the
(Talim Bay CRM Plan)
Batangas
time of data collection.
Calatagan 8 Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si
(Tiquio and Cayabyab, 2008)
Oriental Mindoro
Puerto Galera 10 Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Hm, Ho,
Hs, Si (Fortes, 1997)
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang 8 Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si
(Genito et al, 2009)
EaEnhalus acoroides, ThThalassia hemprichii, CrCymodocea rotundata, CsCymodocea serrulata,
HpHalodule pinifolia, HuHalodule uninervis, HmHalophila minor, HoHalophila ovalis,
HsHalophila spinulosa, SiSyringodium isoetifolium
Table 6. Available information on the status of mangrove forests in Batangas and Oriental Mindoro.
Province/ Type of Type of Area

municipality mangrove forest substrate (ha) Issues and concerns
Batangas
Balayan fringing/riverine sandy/clay loam 19.09 conversion to fishponds; establishment of resorts; presence of coastal
communities; illegal cutting
Batangas City fringing/riverine sandy/clay loam/muddy 23.64 development of industries and ports; presence of coastal communities;
conversion to fishponds
Calatagan fringing coralline/stony/rocky/muddy 244.98 conversion to fishponds and saltbeds; establishment of resorts; presence of
coastal communities; illegal cutting; existing tenurial instruments
Lian fringing/riverine sandy/clay loam 79.99 conversion to fishponds; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting
San Juan fringing/riverine coralline/sandy/clay loam/muddy 348.46 conversion to fishponds; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting;
gleaning activities
Oriental Mindoro
Calapan City riverine/fringing sandy/clay loam/muddy 332.00 presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; presence of
piggeries; illegal cutting
Naujan riverine/fringing sandy/clay loam/muddy 165.00 presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; illegal cutting
Baco fringing/riverine sandy/clay loam/muddy 134.00 presence of coastal communities/ conversion to fishponds; illegal cutting
Pola no data no data 147.00 illegal cutting; conversion to other uses
23
Porites sp., followed by Acropora

sp., Diploastrea heliopora, Montipora
sp., Goniastrea sp., Echinopora sp.,
Pocillopora sp., and Seriatopora sp.
In the subsequent analyses, the

above data on generic composition
was only considered in the
assessing the impact of sea surface
temperature increase on coral cover.
Hence, the projections on cover
loss due to storms and sea level rise
assumed coral genera were equally
sensitive to these factors since
no dose-response function was
available for coral communities.
Impacts of climate change (e.g.,

temperature increases, sea-level rise,
Figure 34. Dominant species present in mangrove areas included in this study
along the VIP (Af- Aegiceras floridum, Am- Avicennia marina, Ao- A. officinalis, storminess) on coral diversity were
Nf- Nypa fruticans, Ra- Rhizophora apiculata, Rm- R. mucronata, Rs- R. stylosa, analyzed in two stages, beginning
Sa- Sonneratia alba, Sc- Sonneratia caseolaris). with the estimation of coral cover
loss described earlier. The inverted
Method of assessing sensitivity species-area curve based on the Calamianes study by
Veron and Fenner (2000) was then used to estimate
Coral the loss of coral diversity from the projected coral cover
Percentage of live hard coral cover and number (=area of habitat) loss (Figure 35). This species-area
of observed coral genera of each survey site per
municipality were collated for the analysis. Percentage
of live coral cover per municipality was calculated by Table 7. Total number of coral genera observed per municipality in the
Verde Island Passage.
getting the average of the percentage coral cover
of all the reefs surveyed in that municipality. The Municipality Sites # genera Dominent genera
number of genera was determined based on what was Batangas City 4 39 Porites
encountered along the survey transects in each of these Calatagan 8 44 Porites, Diploastrea, Galaxea
Looc 6 41 Porites, Acropora, Montipora, Echinopora
towns. Total number of genera was obtained by pooling Lubang 6 39 Porites, Acropora, Seriatopora
all the occurrences of the coral genera per municipality. Mabini 3 45 Porites, Acropora, Montipora
Dominant genera were based on the occurrences of Nasugbu 2 28 Porites
San Juan 8 42 Porites, Diploastrea, Goniastrea
the coral genera per site in each municipality. Very little Tingloy 3 41 Acropora, Pocillopora, Porites
species level data is available for almost all reefs in
the Philippines. The authors also had to rely on reports
100
(some of which were still unfinished at the time this
90
analysis was made) and thus were in no position to
assess the relative importance of the other factors such 80
as proximity to human settlements and activities that 70

diversity loss (%)
might be relevance to the sensitivity of particular coral 60
communities to climate change. 50

y = 0.0066e 4.5855x
40 R2 = 0.9585
A total of 61 coral genera were observed along the 30
survey transects during the assessments (Table 7). 20
The municipality of Mabini had the highest number 10
of observed coral genera, with 45 genera present. 0
Nasugbu municipality on the other hand, had the lowest 0 10 20 30 40 50

area loss (%)
60 70 80 90 100
number of observed coral genera with only 28 genera

noted. Around 39 to 44 coral genera were observed Figure 35. Inverted species-area curve based on the
in the remaining municipalities of Batangas City, Calamianes (Veron and Fenner 2000). Coral diversity loss
Calatagan, Looc, Lubang, San Juan, and Tingloy. The was determined by calculating the y-value using the formula
reefs assessed were mostly dominated with the coral shown above.
24
curve was used since it is the only published account The assumptions of Pratchett et al. (2008) were based
available for the Philippines. However, the estimates on the numerous studies on the hierarchy of bleaching
computed from these are considered conservative susceptibilities of coral genera. Impacts of climate-
because the Veron and Fenners curve is based induced coral bleaching are less selective compared
on beta/between-reef diversity while the current to increased storminess and Acanthaster planci out-
application is seeks to estimate changes in alpha/ breaks. Thermal sensitivities of coral genera have
within-reef diversity. The latter is typically much higher been attributed to physiological and morphological
locally. attributes such as colony integration, tissue thickness
and sensitivities of symbiotic zooxanthellae. Moreover,
Coral diversity loss due to sea surface temperature differences in depth and habitats, history of thermal
increase was estimated by obtaining the percentage of stresses and hydrodynamics also play crucial roles in
coral genera that will be lost by removing the thermally coral bleaching susceptibility.
sensitive coral genera listed in Pratchett et al. (2008)
(Table 8). Lower range estimates were obtained by Seagrass and mangrove
removing the top 10 most vulnerable genera from the The sensitivity assessment of mangrove and seagrass
total genera present per municipality. Whereas, higher areas surrounding the VIP was conducted using
range estimates were calculated by removing all the available secondary information from municipal
vulnerable coral genera based on the list to the total and provincial agriculture offices, coastal resource
genera present in each municipality. This decision is management plans and assessment reports from
arbitrary since, again, no dose-response curve for coral various institutions. Using the most relevant information,
communities and bleaching is available and thus we the status and sensitivity of mangroves and seagrasses
based the cut-off on observations of vulnerable taxa to climate change were assessed based on likely
made in western Batangas during the 1998 bleaching response to the climate change component that will
event, apparently the worst one for the VIP (Arceo et have greatest impact on these ecosystems. In particular,
al. 2001). The estimates based on projected cover mangroves sensitivity to increasing sea level rise was
loss and the species-area curve served as the lower assessed based on the effects of flooding and the most
range estimates of diversity loss, whereas the direct available areas for recruitment and settlement. The
vulnerabilities served as the higher range estimates. vulnerability of these areas was assessed using McLeod
and Salm (2006) vulnerability conditions (Table 9).
Seagrass sensitivity and vulnerability to increasing sea
Table 8. Coral genera thermally sensitive to bleaching events.
surface temperature and storm frequency and intensity
Acropora sp. Leptoria sp. Favia sp. were assessed using information from Campbell et al.
Stylophora sp. Echinophyllia sp. Echinopora sp. (2006), Duarte et al. (1997), and Terrados et al. (1998).
Mycedium sp. Lobophyllia sp. Favites sp.
Isopora sp. Acanthastrea sp. Pavona sp.
In particular, seagrass response to thermal stress,
Montastrea sp. Goniopora sp. Merulina sp. sediment perturbation, and eutrophication were given
Hydnophora sp. Pectinia sp. Turbinaria sp.
emphasis to assess the vulnerability of this ecosystem
Coeloseris sp. Galaxea sp. Astreopora sp.
Cyphastrea sp. Goniastrea sp. to climate change. However, since the available data
Pocillopora sp. Seriatopora sp. did not include information on the zonation of species
Montipora sp. Porites sp.
within a meadow, the sensitivity assessment was
Source: Pratchett et al. 2008.
species-specific.
25
Table 9. An assessment of mangrove vulnerability to sea-level rise based on environmental conditions.
Vulnerability Local conditions Explanation
Most low relief islands low rates of sediment and peat accretion, particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise because they are subject to drought
vulnerable and wave erosion
expected to experience increased flooding, inundation and salinization of soils and freshwater (Shea et al. 2001)
lack of rivers lack of sediment and freshwater
carbonate settings often associated with atolls and islands, where landward migration to escape sea-level rise may not be possible
sediments are mostly locally derived
areas subsiding due to tectonic will experience higher sea-level rise and inundation
movements, groundwater extraction, or
underground mining
micro-tidal sediment-starved environments lack of sediment will lead to decreased geographic distribution and species diversity of mangroves (Houghton et al.
(small Caribbean islands) (Ellison 1993) 2001)
mangroves blocked by coastal development unable to move inland when sea level rises
or steep topography
Least mangroves in deep sediment on high structurally stronger than mangroves in shallow sediment on low islands (Gillison 1980) and less vulnerable to storm
vulnerable islands surges than low islands (UNEP 1994)
high islands will be better adapted to survive predicted climate changes due to their larger surface areas, freshwater
availability, better soils, and more diverse resources (Shea et al. 2001)
riverine mangroves receive large amounts of sediment from other areas (Woodroffe and Grindrod 1991)
most productive mangrove habitats due to high nutrient concentrations associated with sediment trapping (Ewel et al.
1998)
macro-tidal sediment rich environments access to sediment and strong tidal currents to redistribute sediment (Woodroffe and Grindrod 1991)
(mangroves in northern Australia)
mangroves with room to move landward have the opportunity to expand inland when sea level rises
(backed by low-lying areas, salt flats,
undeveloped areas)
mangroves in remote areas have limited anthropogenic stresses and not blocked by coastal communities from moving landward
mangroves surrounded by flourishing dense have steady supply of propagules and seeds
mangrove forests
Source: McLeod and Salm 2006.
Sea surface temperature impact vulnerable are those with high cover of the taxa listed
above. Sites with minimal losses are mostly dominated
Coral by the coral Porites sp. As such, the municipalities
Increasing sea surface temperatures have been of Mabini and Tingloy have the highest vulnerability
documented as a cause of coral bleaching. Sea- with percentage loss of 11% to 22% and 14% to
surface temperature (SST) vulnerability estimates of 21% respectively. The municipality of Lubang had an
coral communities were computed by subtracting the estimated loss 8% to 15% (Table 10).
percentage covers of the taxa that are susceptible
to temperature increases. Lower range estimates Table 10. Percentage (%) cover and percentage loss of coral cover during
were calculated by removing the percentage cover elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eight municipalities
of Acropora sp., whereas the higher range estimates surveyed in the Verde Island Passage.
were calculated by removing the percentage cover % living hard coral

before Cover
of Acropora sp. and pocilloporids (Pocillopora sp., Municipality Sites bleaching low high loss (%)
Seriatopora sp,. and Stylophora sp.). Acroporids and
Batangas City 4 12.9 12.2 11.6 6-10
pocilloporids are deemed to be the most thermally Calatagan 8 24.2 23.5 22.3 3-8
sensitive due to the low thermal thresholds of these Looc 6 29.4 28.0 26.8 5-9
families, their symbionts, and other factors. There have Lubang 6 24.8 22.8 21.2 8-15
Mabini 3 33.8 29.9 26.4 11-22
also been observations of high mortalities in Lian, Nasugbu 2 29.3 27.6 26.8 6-9
Batangas where the first coral bleaching cases in the San Juan 8 19.6 19.0 18.5 3-6
1998 bleaching (the worse one on record) where first Tingloy 3 19.2 16.5 15.1 14-21
observed (Arceo et al. 2001) and is the only place

where it has been studied in the entire VIP region. Seagrass
Although analyses of past thermal events suggest Campbell et al. in 2006 studied the acute
this part of the VIP is more prone to temperature photosynthetic response of 7 tropical species of
fluctuations, the response of acroporids and seagrasses to thermal stress and their ability to
pocilloporids were similar in other parts of the country recover from this stress. As mentioned in this article,
(Arceo et al. 2001). temperatures rising above the tolerable limit of 35C
inhibit plants' ability to produce carbon and bring about
Analysis showed that the percentage loss of live increased respiration and breakdown of photosynthetic
hard coral cover ranged from 3% to 22% across the enzymes. Although tropical species of seagrasses
Verde Island Passage. The sites deemed to be highly may have adopted to high temperature as some of the
26
meadows are more exposed to extreme temperatures Nasugbu coral covers will remain in the fair category
than meadows in temperate region, the photosynthetic if the effect of the storm is low. However, if the impact
responses of most seagrass species (as shown in this is severe the status of the coral communities in these
article)may likely suffer from short term or episodic municipalities will become poor. Five out of the eight the
exposure to seawater temperature ranging from 40 municipalities surveyed have poor coral covers, thereby
to 45C. Of the species studied by Campbell et al. increasing their vulnerability in the event of a severe
(2006), Cymodocea rotundata, C. serrulata, Halodule impact. Batangas City for example after severe impact
uninervis, and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant will have the lowest coral cover of 8.1% from 12.9%.
to thermal stress than other species. Using this study Note that Caloy was merely a tropical storm and not of
to determine the sensitivity of seagrasses in areas that typhoon strength. Hence projected losses stated here
surround VIP to increasing SST, the four areas included are considered conservative.
in this report may be least sensitive to increase in SST
due to the presence of species which are tolerant to Seagrass
thermal stress (Table 5), however, this projection may Increase in storm intensity and frequency will likely
further be refined when available data on seagrass cause changes in sediment morphology and dynamics
densities and zonation of species will be considered. as well as salinity levels in seagrass meadows.
Sediment perturbation caused by strong typhoons
Of the two habitats assessed to be sensitive to increases mortality of seagrasses due to uprooting,
increase in temperature, corals are deemed more dislocation and burial of seagrass modules.
sensitive. Indeed globally, documentations of positive
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been Of the tropical species, Enhalus acoroides is the
associated with mass coral bleaching, mortality most resistant to sediment perturbation, followed by
(Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Wilkinson 2004), and coral Halophila ovalis, Halodule uninervis, Cymodocea
disease outbreak (Bruno et al. 2007). serrulata, Thalassia hemprichii, Cymodocea rotundata,
and Syringodium isoetifolium (Duarte et al. 1997,
Storm impact Terrados et al. 1998).
Coral The four sites in the VIP with known seagrass

Analysis of the impacts of typhoons was based on the distribution are analyzed to have low sensitivity to
study by Licuanan (unpublished report) in Pagbilao, sediment perturbation caused by an increase in storm
Quezon. Based on the monitoring of reefs in Pagbilao, intensity and frequency. The projection may be different
Quezon (just to the east of the VIP) estimated coral if analysis will include eutrophication caused by influx
cover losses during tropical storm Caloy was 12.5% of freshwater from increased storm/rainfall frequency.
for sheltered sites and 37.5% for exposed sites. These As observed in a lot of areas around the Philippines,
estimates were then used to calculate the change of the seagrasses are overgrown by algae when the flow
percentage coral cover during low to severe impacts of water is impeded or when there is an increase in
since no function relating storm strength and cover freshwater input.
loss is available. Coral cover in Quezon is comparable
to the sites in the VIP, as are the reefswhich are Sea level rise impact
generally narrow fringing type. Both areas are within the
Philippines typhoon belt. Coral
For the effects of sea level rise (SLR), area loss was
Table 11 presents the changes in percentage covers of computed using the following formula:
live hard corals when a typhoon similar to Caloy passed
by the VIP. The municipalities of Mabini, Looc, and (a/sinA) - (a/sinA)
% area loss x 100
a/sinA
Table 11. Estimated percentage (%) cover of live hard corals during low to
severe impacts of typhoons. Wherein, a is the maximum depth of the reef community
% living hard coral
before sea level rise; a is the maximum depth of the
before low severe reef community after sea level rise; and, A is the angle
Municipality Sites impact impact impact of the reef slope. The angle of the reef slope was
Batangas City 4 12.9 11.3 8.1 measured as the elevation from the horizontal.
Calatagan 8 24.2 21.2 15.1
Looc 6 29.4 25.7 18.4
Lubang 6 24.8 21.7 15.5 This formula, however, only applies to deep coral
Mabini 3 33.8 29.5 21.1 communities along the reef slope. It is assumed that
Nasugbu
San Juan
2
8
29.3
19.6
25.6
17.2
18.3
12.3
in the event of sea level rise, the coral communities
Tingloy 3 19.2 16.8 12.0 located at the bottom of the reef slope will drown even
All municipalities 24.2 21.2 15.2
27
if factors other than depth may control the lower extent used as there is no other available information on rates
of reefs in particular sites (note that the entire study is of accretion in other parts of the country.
based on secondary data aggregated to the town level).
Coral reefs in the Philippines are generally shallower If sensitivity assessment will be based on the areal
around high islands such as Luzon and Mindanao extent of potential mangrove areas and the projected 1,
where water clarity is also lower mostly due to human 2- and 3-m rise in sea level (Siringan et al., this report),
activities on land. Exceptions are the sparsely populated almost all areas included in this report will be inundated
areas facing the Pacific Ocean. with 1-m rise in sea level except for the municipalities of
San Juan, Batangas and Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Table 12 presents the estimated area following sea (Figure 36). For Batangas province, the mangrove
level rise. Reef area loss for the VIP ranges from forests in San Juan will be the least vulnerable, followed
0.38% to 7%. Note that these only apply to the deepest by Calatagan, Lian, Nasugbu. For Oriental Mindoro,
portion of the reef slope. Specifically, Batangas City Calapan City will be the least vulnerable, followed by
and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable and have estimated Naujan, Pola, and Baco. However as stated earlier
0.38% to 7% area loss. Whereas, the rest of the most of these mangrove areas have been converted
municipalities surveyed are still vulnerable but have to fishponds, resorts and other land uses and are near
lower estimates of 0.25% to 4% area loss. coastal communities, hence progression landward may
be hindered.
Table 12. Estimated area and diversity losses in the event of sea level
rise. Area loss estimates were based on the 5 cm (low) and 88 cm (high) Balayan and Batangas City were seen as the most
sea level rise scenarios. Diversity loss was computed using the species
area curve.
vulnerable mangrove areas due to its small size in
terms of area covered and the presence of coastal
% area % diversity
Municipality loss loss
developments (fishponds, ports, industries) which may
be a barrier to the settlement and growth of mangroves.
Batangas City 0.38-7 0.60-0.80
Calatagan 0.25-4 0.60-0.70
The dikes of active and abandoned fishponds for
Looc 0.25-4 0.60-0.70 example, would impede the settlement of seeds and
Lubang 0.25-4 0.60-0.70 propagules to these ponds and the normal hydrology
Mabini 0.25-4 0.60-0.70
Nasugbu 0.38-7 0.60-0.80 in the area that could promote growth of mangroves is
San Juan 0.25-4 0.60-0.70 also altered. With all these barriers, even if there will be
Tingloy 0.25-4 0.60-0.70
a 1mm per year accretion rate, offsetting the impact of
sea level rise may be difficult unless some measures
Mangrove are made to relieve the stress. An example would be
Table 13 presents the vulnerability assessment of the restoration of abandoned fishponds into its natural
mangrove areas along the VIP, the study is delimited mangrove forest. A number of publications have already
with the availability of information on mangroves in laid down protocols and steps on restoration of ponds
these areas. The 1 mm per year accretion rate observed into mangrove forests (i.e., Lewis and Marshall 1997,
by Fujimoto et al. (1995) in Abatan River, Bohol was Stevenson et al. 1999, Samson and Rollon 2008,
Primavera and Esteban 2008, Lewis 2009).
Table 13. Vulnerability of mangrove areas along the Verde Island Passage to projected sea level rise (SLR) and rate of accretion.
Area (ha) to be inundated Dominant Degree of vulnerability

given a 50-year SLR projection Mangrove mangrove given 1mm/year
Municipality 1-m 2-m 3-m area (ha) species1 Issues affecting mangrove area accretion rate2
Nasugbu 64.26 366.84 848.97 no data no data no data no data

Calatagan 235.8 369.72 765.45 244.98 Am, Ao, Ra, Rs, Nf conversion to fishponds and saltbeds; establishment of LV
resorts; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting;
existing tenurial instruments
Balayan 165.06 439.92 761.85 19.09 Am, Ra, Rs,Nf conversion to fishponds; establishment of resorts; presence MV
of coastal communities; illegal cutting
Lemery 101.88 222.48 427.95 no data no data no data no data
Batangas 92.97 137.52 307.26 23.64 development of industries and ports; presence of coastal MV
communities; conversion to fishponds
Lobo 20.88 36.36 70.65 no data no data no data no data
Abra de Ilog 34.56 77.58 191.88 no data no data no data no data
Calapan 69.66 160.65 511.92 332.0 Af, Am, Ao, Sa presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; LV
presence of piggeries; illegal cutting
Naujan 90.63 182.97 446.58 165.0 Af, Am, Am, Sa, Sc presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; LV
illegal cutting
Lubang 426.51 701.91 1096.38 no data no data no data no data
Boac 45.81 92.52 199.98 no data no data no data no data
1 AfAegiceras floridum, AmAvicennia marina, AoA. officinalis, NfNypa fruticans, RaRhizophora apiculata, RmR. mucronata, RsR. stylosa, SaSonneratia alba, ScSonneratia caseolaris
2 MVmost vulnerble; LVleast vulnerable
Source: McLeod,E. and R. V. Salm. 2006. Managing Mangroves for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. 64pp.
28
al., this report), mangrove areas

around the VIP are vulnerable to any
rise in sea level and other impacts
that may be brought about by this
factor. Though some municipalities
have considerable large areas of
mangroves (i.e., Calatagan and
San Juan, Batangas; Calapan City,
Oriental Mindoro), most of these
areas are near coastal communities
which according to McLeod and
Salm (2006) will be unable to
progress landward due to present
anthropogenic developments.
Gilman et al. (2008), based on

their analysis of available evidence,
predicted that of all climate-related
changes, sea level rise will have great
Figure 36. Effect of sea level rise on existing mangrove stands (based on impact on the remaining mangrove
number of species present).
ecosystems.
If the impacts of flooding due to sea level rise and The projections presented here are conservative
the presence of species which are least sensitive because interactions between climate change impacts
to changing water quality, i.e., Avicennia marina, are not considered. Increase in ocean temperature, sea
Rhizophora stylosa (Alongi 2008), will be considered, level rise, and more frequent typhoons acting together
most of the areas studied will have low sensitivity to are likely to have greater impacts than the sum of their
flooding except for the municipalities of Puerto Galera individual impacts. As an example, sea level rise is likely
and Baco, Oriental Mindoro (Figure 37). Aside from to liberate sediments from the inundated lands, and
their greater ability to cope with changes in water drowned mangroves and seagrasses. These sediments,
quality, the species of A. marina and R. stylosa have in turn, will reduce water transparency (for one) further
higher rates of colonization potential. aggravating the drowning of the lower reef slope. Even
more sediments will be liberated by strong waves and
Using the vulnerability assessment conditions heavy rainfall generated by storms and typhoons. (Also
presented by McLeod and Salm (2006) in Table 9 consider possible changes in rainfall patterns, this is a
and the projected sea level rise in VIP (Siringan et gap area).
Another reason why the projections

presented here should be considered
conservative is because they were
made with the implicit assumption
that the impacts of human activities
are already incorporated in the
baseline data used and will remain at
current levels in the future. However,
the coasts of the VIP host rapidly
growing populations and are subject
to increasing development. There is
already evidence from Lian, Batangas
and Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
of eutrophication resulting from
agriculture and urban sewage,
respectively (please cite reference).
This leads to algal blooms that will
have detrimental impact on the reef.
Also, the impact of garbage on VIP
Figure 37. Effect of flooding due to sea level rise on existing mangrove stands waters has not been studied.
(based on presence of flood resistant species).
29
Adaptive capacity
The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem would depend In Lubang Island and West Marinduque, the increase
on their historical stress experience and their natural in relative cover of dead coralline algae/rock from 2002
ability to withstand an impact. This was explored using to 2009 could be the result of rubble aggregation
1) change detection analysis for 10 representative and lithification. This type of substrate shift was
sites in the Verde Island Passage, and 2) time series of also observed in Ngaderrak Reef in the Republic of
pelagic primary productivity. Palau (Ticzon et al. 2008), where rubble areas were
consolidated and cemented by coralline algae and the
Coastal habitat encrusting sponge Clathria. However, this process
Changes in coastal habitat were done using latest of lithification in Lubang Island and West Marinduque
available cloud-free Landsat images: the oldest could have been limited in areas of low wave energy,
available (1991-92); after the 1998 massive bleaching and minimal anthropogenic disturbance. This would
(2001-02); and the latest available (2007/2009). allow for loose rubble to aggregate and provide time
Each of the images were pre-processed for for biological processes to initiate the process of
atmospheric correction using dark pixel subtraction and cementation.
subsequently land masked. A new set of spectral layers
were then created using the following band ratios: B1- A different process is believed to be behind a similar
B2; B4-B3; B5-B4; B5-B2. This was done to eliminate/ shift in dominant substrate type in the Naujan-Gloria
minimize the shadow effect of clouds and mountain reefs. Characterized by strong wave action and steep
shading. PCA images were then density sliced to
collect ROI's representative of the known habitats, i.e.,
Table 14. Change in coastal habitat cover through time. Size of the circle
Live Corals; Mixed Live with Dead Coral-Rock (DCA- depicts extent of total coastal habitat cover in hectares (small = tens;
Rck); Algae overgrown DCA-Rck and Macrophyte medium = more than a hundred; large = beyond 1000 hectares).
Bed; and Sand-Rubble) on the reef. Between 30 to 80 1991/1992 2002 2009
points per habitat were collected and used as training
pixels for supervised parallelepiped classification. Lubang Island
Generation of class statistics (area coverage per
microhabitat) was conducted in selected areas of VIP.
It should be noted, however, that the 2009 images Calatagan
have the inherent problem of presence of stripping.
This results in an over/under estimate of total cover.
Correction was done by multiplying the % cover from East Calumpan
the 2009 data multiplied by the more reliable 1991-
1992 total coverage data. The same was done for the
2001-2002 images. Percent covers of live coral; mixed Batangas Bay West
live and dead coral/rock; algae dominated/macrophyte
beds; and sandy areas are highlighted in Table 14.
Batangas East
Calatagan, followed by Puerto Galera-Naujan appear

stable in that changes to live coral and macrophyte
cover are minimal through the years, and this appears Maricaban Island
consistent with limited monitoring data from a peoples

organization in Calatagan. The live coral cover of
West Marinduque
Batangas East and West Marinduque also appears
stable. The most significant live coral cover loss can
be seen for the islands of Lubang and Maricaban.
Wawa-Paluan
Coral cover loss (1991/92 to 2002) and then recovery
(2002 to 2009) was observed for Naujan-Gloria. In
several sites (Lubang Island, Naujan-Gloria, and West Pto. Galera-Naujan
Marinduque), shifts in dominant substrate type from
loose, to dead coralline/rocky substrate was observed.
Processes underlying such shifts are usually biological Naujan-Gloria
and physical in nature, operating in a predominantly
local scale.
Bluescorals, maroonsmixed live/dead coral and rock, greensalgal covered substrate or macrophyte
beds, yellowsandy areas.
30
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : adaptive capacity
slopes, erosion of loose substrate to the deeper Chlorophyll data within and around the VIP shows
section of the shelf is seen as the primary reason in the seasonality of the signal with higher signal during
the increase in percent cover of dead coralline/rocky the NE monsoon (Figure 38). This is because during
substrate in this section of the VIP, specifically from the northeast monsoon, winds through the passage
Barangay Calima to Mag-Asawang Tubig, in Pola. The are funneled by the topography and coastline of the
erosion of loose substrate exposed the underlying bed strait resulting in very strong wind jets. Such wind jets
rock in some areas, contributing to the increased cover have been described as the driving force behind the
of DCA/Rock. However, the image also shows that the dipole eddy that sometimes forms off Lubang Island
increase in relative cover of DCA/Rock is due to coral in the South China Sea (Pullen et al. 2008). The
mortality, which consistently occurred in this section of strong northeast monsoon winds through the strait
the VIP from 1992 to 2009. may also enhance mixing resulting in the transport
of nutrients towards the surface thus enhancing
Pelagic primary productivity productivity. This is supported by both satellite and
In temperate regions, primary productivity has been ship-based measurements showing elevated chlorophyll
shown to be affected by changes in precipitation concentrations in the area west of the Verde Island
pattern (Mallin et al. 1993), and changes in intensity of (PhilEx, unpub data).
storm (Vinayachandran and Mathew 2003). Moreover,
the northward shift of warm-water plankton, the retreat Further investigation of the NE signal shows the higher
of cold-water plankton and the altered timing of spring chlorophyll concentration in the western side of the
plankton production are already seen to affect higher VIP (Figure 39). Long-term anomalies show all clusters
trophic levels (MCCIP 2008). The primary productivity having negative chl anomaly in 1998, hence chl also
adaptive capacity in the VIP is explored by describing decreased in the VIP during the 1998 high thermal
the behavior of chlorophyll a signal through time using anomaly that is responsible for mass coral bleaching
SeaWIFs monthly dataset with a 9 km resolution (Figure 40). The 2 clusters within the VIP showed a
(September 1998-March 2009). positive chl anomaly during the following strong La Nia
Figure 38. SeaWiFs derived monthly surface chlorophyll in and around the VIP from September
1998-March 2009 clustered into 9 distinct classes. Signature time-series for each cluster are shown above.
Peaks pertain to elevated chlorophyll concentrations during the NE monsoon.
31
(1999-2001) with a 1 year lag between the eastern and anomalies were observed. In 2007-08, there was again
western part. This could have implications in the near a positive chl anomaly during La Nia. Then, in 2008
future because PDO negative (in which we are in now) just as the La Nia was weakening, there was a PDO
have been associated with more La Nias. During the was shift from a warm phase to a cold phase and a
prolonged weak El Nio from 2003-2006 no significant negative chl anomaly was observed.
Figure 39. Average signal during the NE monsoon (Dec-Feb) in surface

chl (mg/m3). Values are standardized (normalized by mean and st dev) for
comparison (Dec 1997-Feb 2009).
Figure 40. Anomaly signals for the NE monsoon (Dec-Feb) in

surface chl (mg/m3).
32
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : vulnerability
Vulnerability
Measuring vulnerability requires various hierarchical to 75% of its coral diversity. This is attributed to the
scales of analyses and perspectives vis--vis the low number of coral genera occurring in its reef areas.
impending impact on the socio-ecological system. Whereas, the municipality of Tingloy and Batangas City
Measuring their eventual interactive effects would were considered to be vulnerable since it could lose
require a nuanced perspective. By putting in a matrix 10% to 41% and 15% to 49% of its coral diversity,
or geographic overlay of how each aspect interacts is respectively. Other municipalities such as Calatagan,
useful as a first order analyses. But putting into context Looc, Lubang, Mabini, and San Juan have estimated
the different weights and importance factors of the losses of 13% to 59%.
climate change impacts and their functionality would
have give varying impacts at a habitat level vis--vis It should be noted however, that not all of the identified
their species level concerns. coral genera (27) were present in each municipality.
As explained earlier, the lower estimates based on
Consequence of this habitat sensitivity Pratchett et al. (2008) was obtained by deducting the
to diversity top ten (10) genera from the total number of genera
present. Whereas, the higher estimates was obtained
Coral diversity by removing all of the genera that were indicated in the
list in Pratchett et al. 2008.
The number of observed coral genera and reef fish
abundance and species richness of each survey site per Table 16 presents the changes in the occurrence of
municipality were collated for the analysis. The number coral genera when a storm similar to Caloy passed by
of observed coral genera per municipality was obtained the VIP. Coral diversity loss estimates during tropical
by pooling all the occurrences of coral genera per storm Caloy in Pagbilao, Quezon ranged from 7%
municipality. Species richness of reef fish assemblages for low impact to 22% for severe impact. Diversity
per municipality was also obtained by pooling all the is already low in the municipalities surveyed, thereby
observed reef fishes during these surveys. Reef fish making them even more vulnerable based on the
abundances values were obtained by getting the total estimates. The municipalities of Calatagan and Mabini
number of individuals per municipality. are the least to be affected during low impact as they
have the highest diversity among all the sites surveyed.
Based on the percentage loss of coral cover due to However, if the impact is severe, coral diversity in these
increase in ocean temperature, coral diversity loss municipalities will be less ranging from 30 to 35 genera
was estimated to range from 0.7% to 1.6% across only. The municipality of Nasugbu is deemed to be the
the VIP using the species-area curve for Calamianes. most vulnerable of all the sites regardless of low or
Specifically, diversity loss in the municipalities of severe impact. Losses in coral genera will change from
Mabini, Tingloy and Lubang ranged from 1.0% to 28 to 21.8% during severe impact. This is attributed
1.6%, 1.1% to 1.6% and 0.9 to 1.2% respectively to the very low occurrences of coral genera in the
(Table 15). The remaining municipalities of Batangas municipality.
City, Calatagan, Looc, Nasugbu and San Juan are
deemed to lose 0.7% to 0.9% of their coral diversity. Following sea level rise and assuming that the coral
However, using Pratchett et al. (2008) as basis, distribution and diversity are even for the entire reef
diversity loss across the VIP ranged from 10% to area, diversity loss obtained using the species area
as high as 75%. The municipality of Nasugbu was curve estimated 0.60% to 0.80% loss. Specifically,
considered as highly vulnerable as it could lose 21% Batangas City and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable with
Table 15. Percentage (%) loss of coral diversity during elevated sea Table 16. Estimated percentage (%) of diversity of live hard corals during
surface temperatures in the eight municipalities surveyed in the VIP. low to severe impacts of typhoons.
Diversity loss (%) Before Low Severe
# sp-area Pratchett Municipality Sites impact impact impact
Municipality Sites genera curve et al. 2008
Batangas City 4 39 36.3 30.4
Batangas City 4 39 0.8-0.9 15-49 Calatagan 8 44 40.9 34.3
Calatagan 8 44 0.7-0.9 18-57 Looc 6 41 38.1 32.0
Looc 6 41 0.8-0.9 15-54 Lubang 6 39 36.3 30.4
Lubang 6 39 0.9-1.2 21-59 Mabini 3 45 41.9 35.1
Mabini 3 45 1.0-1.6 13-53 Nasugbu 2 28 26.0 21.8
Nasugbu 2 28 0.8-0.9 21-75 San Juan 8 42 39.1 32.8
San Juan 8 42 0.7-0.8 17-57 Tingloy 3 41 38.1 32.0
Tingloy 3 41 1.1-1.6 10-41 All municipalities 63 58.6 49.1
33
0.60% to 0.80% diversity loss while the rest of the Similarly, reef fish diversity loss per municipality was
municipalities surveyed have relatively lower estimates computed by subtracting the total number of vulnerable
of 0.60% to 0.70% diversity loss. species to the total number of species present in each
municipality.
Reef fish diversity
Recent studies of Wilkinson (2000a and 2000b) have A total of 16 species of reef fishes listed in Pratchett
shown that climate-induced coral bleaching has had et al. (2008) was observed in the VIP. Percentage loss
major effects on the biological and physical structure of reef fish species ranged from 9% to 14% (Table
of coral reef habitats. Numerous studies (e.g., Shibuno 18). The municipality of Nasugbu was deemed to have
et al. 1999, McClanahan et al. 2002a, Munday 2004a, the highest vulnerability as it could lose 16% of the
Sano 2004, Graham et al. 2006, Pratchett et al. 2006) 44 observed fish species, followed by Looc, Caltagan,
have documented consequent changes in the species and San Juan with estimated losses of 14%, 12%, and
composition and abundance of associated reef fish 10% respectively. The municipalities of Batangas City,
assemblages. Changes in the topographic complexity Lubang, Mabini, and Tingloy had the lowest estimated
and loss of coral cover affect reef fishes by reducing loss of 9%. The total number of species observed, only
viable coral growths that provide shelter and protection included reef fish species observed during the transect
and food source which ultimately affect settlement, surveys.
recruitment and overall biological diversity.
The estimated percentage losses of reef fish diversity
The municipality of Mabini had the highest number of and abundance is relatively high. However, these
reef fishes observed within the belt transects with 151 estimates are still considered to be conservative as
species (Table 18). Mabini is closely followed by the the compounded impacts of the other climate change
municipalities of Lubang, Tingloy and Batangas City impacts and human activities are still not accounted
with 147, 142, and 139 species, respectively. The for. Although the effects of loss of coral cover can be
municipalities of Looc and Nasugbu, despite having minimal and limited to highly-dependent fishes (e.g.,
higher percentages of live hard coral cover, only corallivores), changes in topographic complexity can
harbored 87 and 44 reef fish species, respectively.
San Juan and Calatagan fell in the middle with 100
and 113 species. Lubang municipality had the highest Table 17. Reef fish species observed in the Verde Island Passage that
are affected by coral bleaching due to their association and dependence
estimated reef fish abundance with more than 2,000 on coral communities.
reef fish individuals, whereas the municipality of
Family Species Habits
Nasugbu had the lowest reef fish abundance with only
171 individuals. The municipality of Looc despite having Acanthuridae Ctenochaetus striatus herbivores
Chaetodontidae Chaetodon baronessa corallivore
less than a hundred reef fish species still had more Chaetodontidae Chaetodon lunulatus corallivore
than 1000 reef fish individuals. Mabini municipality on Chaetodontidae Chaetodon melannotus corallivore
the other hand, only had more than 1,200 individuals Chaetodontidae
Labridae
Chaetodon trifascialis
Gomphosus varius
corallivore
benthic carnivore
despite having the highest species richness. The Labridae Halichoeres melanurus others
remaining municipalities, Batangas City, Calatagan, San Labridae Labrichthys unilineatus corallivore
Pomacentridae Amblyglyphidodon curacao omnivores
Juan, and Tingloy had reef fish abundances of more Pomacentridae Chrysiptera rollandi others
than 1,400 individuals. The Fish Visual Census (FVC) Pomacentridae Neoglyphidodon melas corallivore
method was used to assess the reef fish assemblages. Pomacentridae Plectroglyphidodon lacrymatus herbivores
Pomacentridae Pomacentrus lepidogenys coral dweller
Reef fish species richness was accounted by pooling Pomacentridae Pomacentrus moluccensis coral dweller
all the observed species in the belt transects during the Pomacentridae Pomacentrus vaiuli others
Siganidae Siganus spinus herbivores
surveys. Fish abundance was estimated by pooling total
fish abundance (number of individuals/1000m2) per Source: adapted from Pratchett et al. 2008.
survey site and getting their means.

Table 18. Percentage (%) loss of associated reef fish species and
abundance in the event of coral bleaching.
Effects on the reef fish abundance and diversity were
Species richness Abundance
determined by calculating the percentage losses # species %
of vulnerable species that Pratchett et al. (2008) Municipality Sites observed lost loss before after loss
identified. Table 17 presents the vulnerable reef fish Batangas City 4 139 13 9 1660 1205 27
species adapted from Pratchett et al. (2008) found in Calatagan 8 113 13 12 1874 1377 27
the Verde Island Passage. Looc 6 87 12 14 1086 830 24
Lubang 6 147 13 9 2227 1658 26
Mabini 4 151 14 9 1215 652 46
Losses in reef fish abundances were estimated by Nasugbu 2 44 7 16 171 133 22
San Juan 8 100 10 10 1410 1247 12
deducting the abundances of the vulnerable species Tingloy 3 142 13 9 1465 672 54
from the total reef fish abundance per municipality.
34
cause more wide-spread detrimental impacts. The climate impacts) by extreme changes in the climate.
increase in frequencies and intensities of storms and Emphasis was placed upon knowledge of the critical
typhoons for example, can cause more devastating life stages (e.g., larvae, juveniles, reproductive stages)
effects on habitat complexity. Nevertheless, the of the species as well as some information on their
estimates made are still significant as it provides us catch rates and habitat conditions. It has been
lower-range projected losses in the VIP. acknowledged that changes in the climate (e.g., rising
sea surface temperature, increase in storm frequency,
Consequence of this habitat sensitivity storm surges) would possibly introduce greatest impact
to fisheries upon larval, juvenile and reproductive stages of target
species affecting distributional patterns (e.g., Munday
To achieve the objectives of the vulnerability et al. 2008). Target species may also be influenced by
analyses it is necessary to determine the attributes changes in the climate indirectly through habitat loss
of fisheries ecosystem, their ecosystem features and and fragmentation (e.g., coral loss through bleaching
connectedness to the various habitats and resources events, inundation of mangroves areas) affecting their
and how the ecological and social economic systems recruitment, survivorship and abundance (Pratchet et
interact. This component emphasizes on the ecological al. 2008). The associated habitats of the target species
interactions and only introduces its links to the were determined as this will allow further examination
social systems as these social linkages and adaptive of the conditions of these habitats harboring the
capacities are discussed by another group. critical life stages. The presence of habitat types
(e.g., seagrass beds, mangroves) that enhances the
This approach (Table 19) first identifies and then growth and survivorship and what drives the population
quantifies the types of gear present and used in dynamics of the species potentially will serve as a
six municipality/city sites in the VIP, namely Mabini gauge or index as what would be vulnerable to climate
(Batangas), Verde Is. (Batangas City), Puerto Galera change (e.g., increase in sea surface temperature, sea
(Oriental Mindoro), Lubang (Occidental Mindoro), level rise).
Looc (Occ. Mindoro), and Paluan (Occ. Mindoro).
Where available, information on fisher population, types Catch composition and dominant catches of the
of fishing gears used (mainly artisanal and under the gears allows identification of the species targeted in
municipal fisheries category), number of fishers per the fisheries. In addition, the distribution of the target
gear type, catch rate, catch composition, seasonality of species can be assessed by determining the types of
gear use, and fishing areas of the gears were collected. gear used in the area and the associated habitats of the
species and gears. The gear types of the target species
Threat analyses and their level of fishing effort will be concurrently
Standardizing semi-quantitative scores of human assessed to incorporate the exacerbating effects of
induced threats vis--vis fisheries and resource exploitation upon sensitive species and habitats.
exploitation and other exacerbating impacts. The vulnerability assessment also takes into account
the dependence of the gears and therefore the fishers
The vulnerability assessment utilizes the information upon specific sensitive habitats in the fisheries. The
gathered from the literature to identify the fisheries gear types, their density, and their level of effort will be
resources (target species, fishery stocks) that will be utilized to explore the vulnerabilities of the fisheries.
most affected (i.e., vulnerable vis--vis the prospective This also initiates the interaction with or the link to
socio-economic aspects of the assessment particularly
highlighting the effects upon human well-being whereas
Table 19. Focus of the fisheries vulnerability assessment in the Verde the identified fishing areas of the gears will link to the
Island Passage.
habitat and biodiversity aspects of the assessment.
Target species and life history characterstics
Spratelloides (dulong): post-larval juveniles of this pelagic species are heavity harvested
at nearshore areas including lagoons at known season This fishery is important in Mabini Vulnerabilities were first explored for the target species/
and adjacent areas. taxa of each site by primarily considering the range of
Groupers: juveniles of some of these reef associated fish occur at mangroves and
estuaries (i.e., ontogenetic habitat movement) at known season. Important in the live fish
associated habitat types throughout the life cycle of
food fishery in Looc and Lubang. the species that would be at risk to climate change
Milkfish: juveniles of this species occur at estuaries. Important in the milkfish fry fishery in impacts. Table 20 shows the target species/taxa of the
Occidental Mindoro.
Aquarium fish: these fish are highly associated with coral reefs. Important in the various gear types of the 6 sites and their associated
aquarium fishery in Verde Island and Occidental Mindoro. habitat types. Under this assessment, Lubang and
Gear quantity, distribution, and dependence on habitats
Looc fisheries appear both to be more vulnerable
Fishing grounds of varying habitat types with associated gears. High gear effort at more compared to any other site. This was mainly due to
habitat types render the areas more sensitive and therefore vulnerable to climate change. the several target species and/or taxa from a range of
Lubang showed the most number of gears and gear types variably distributed at different
habitat types. gear types. Many of the target species showed varying
35
Table 20. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries, based on the number of habitat types of the target species/taxa (including all types of habitat
throughout the life cycle). Oceanographic and remote sensing (RS) information on the habitat attributes will result in functional weighting of the habitat
scores vis--vis their importance to the vulnerability values.
Habitat type Number

Caught by sand/ estuarine of habitat Vulnerability
Species/taxa gear type reef beach mangrove seagrass creeks/rivers pelagic types index
Mabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides) basnig (bag net), lambat 3 medium
dilis (Engraulis) pandulong (gill net), scissor net 3 medium
alumahan (Rastrelliger) 1 low
lambat pante (gill net)
tambakol (Katsuwonus) 1 low
galunggong (Decapterus) lambat pante (gill net) 2 low to medium
hayhay (surface long line)
matambaka (Selar) hayhay (surface long line) 2 low to medium
lapu-lapu (groupers) possible possible 4 medium to high

maya-maya (Lutjanus) kawil (hook and line), pana possible 2 low to medium
kanoping (Lethrinus) (spear) possible 2 low to medium
bisugo (nemipterids) 2 low to medium
tulingan (Auxis) hayhay (surface long line) 1 low
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) pamanos (squid jig) 2 low to medium
low to medium
Verde Island, Batangas City
angelfish (Pomacanthus) 2 low to medium
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus) hand nets (barrier 2 low to medium
damselfish (Chromis) net) 2 low to medium
anthiinid (Anthias) 2 low to medium
lion fish (Pterois) 2 low to medium
lapu-lapu (groupers) 2 low to medium
kawil (hook and line) 2 low to medium
manites (Upeneus)
galunggong (Decapterus) hayhay (long line) 2 low to medium
mulmol (Scarus) 2 low to medium
pana (spear)
labahita (Naso) 2 low to medium
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) pamanos (squid jig) 2 low to medium
low to medium
Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus) lambat pante (gill net) 2 low to medium
kawil (hook and line) low
tulingan (Auxis) 1 low
kawil (hook and line)
alumahan (Rastrelliger) 1 low to medium
labahita (Naso) 2 low to medium
pana (spear)
loro, mulmol (Scarus) 2 low to medium
Lubang, Occidental Mindoro

galunggong (Decapterus) basnig (bag net) 2 low to medium
dilis (Stolephorus) basnig (bag net), lambat 4 medium to high
(gill net)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) 2 low to medium
pagulpol (Cypselurus) pante (gill net) 1 low
tangigue (Makaira) lambat (gill net) 1 low
gulyasan (tuna) lambat (gill net), kawil 1 low
(hook and line)
maya-maya (Lutjanus) kawil (hook and line), bubo possible possible 4 medium to high
lapu-lapu (groupers) (trap), pana (spear), lambat possible 5 high
labahita (Naso), rabbitfish (gill net) possible 4 medium to high
angelfish (Pomacanthus) hand nets (w/ compressor) 2 low to medium
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus) hand nets (w/ compressor) 2 low to medium
damselfish (Chromis) hand nets (w/ compressor) 2 low to medium
anthiinid (Anthias) hand nets (w/ compressor) 2 low to medium
bangus fry (Chanos chanos) scoop nets 4 medium to high
medium
Looc, Occidental Mindoro
dilis (Stolephorus) basnig (bag net), lambat 4 medium to high
talakitok (Carangoides) pandilis (anchovies), gill 2 low to medium
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) nets 2 low to medium
matambaka (Selar) kawil (hook and line) 2 low to medium
lapu-lapu (live groupers) kawil (hook and line), pana possible possible possible 5 high
maya-maya (Lutjanus) (spear) possible 3 medium
bangus fry (Chanos chanos) scoop nets 4 medium to high
medium
36
Table 20. (continued)
Habitat type Number

Caught by sand/ estuarine of habitat Vulnerability
Species/taxa gear type reef beach mangrove seagrass creeks/rivers pelagic types index
Paluan, Occidental Mindoro

galunggong (Decapterus) 2 low to medium
basnig (bag net), kawil low
tulingan (Auxis) 1
(hook and line)
dilis (Stolephorus) 3 medium
alamang (Acetes) 2 low to medium
lambat (gill net) medium
pagulpol (Cypselurus) 1
lapu-lapu (groupers)
maya-maya (snappers) kawil (hook and line), pana possible possible possible 5 high
(spear), bubo (trap
labahita (Naso)
low to medium
associated habitat types such as pelagic anchovies, infrastructure, etc. are also seen to accelerate the
herrings and sardines that are known to also occur impacts.
at estuaries. These sites also had fishers harvesting
milkfish fry at estuaries and several grouper species Fishing has been acknowledged to potentially
with juveniles occurring at mangroves and seagrasses. exacerbate the effects of climate change upon the
Several site-attached and coral dependent reef fishes target species (Brander 2007). The varying gear types
were also targeted for the aquarium fishery in Lubang, and high fishing effort in Mabini and Lubang (Table
Looc, Paluan, and Verde. The types of life history trait 20) would enhance the threats more than can be
renders these organisms susceptible to large changes observed in the other sites except that effort data were
in the patterns of climate (e.g., sea surface temperature not available for Looc and Paluan (Table 21). Some
anomalies, sea level rise, more frequent and more target species were harvested by more than one gear
intensified storms). type which was observed in anchovies and herrings in
Mabini and coral reef fishes (e.g., groupers) in Lubang
Qualitative descriptions and overall and, additionally, with high fisher populations.
assessment
The Verde Island Passage is found at the core of In some cases, overlapping of gears occur increasing
highest marine biodiversity and with huge human competition between fishers amidst declining stocks
populations dependent upon the fisheries resources. in specific habitats. Table 22 shows the number of
Climate-related impacts therefore would have gears used on each habitat type in the 6 sites. Lubang
tremendous effects upon the coastal fisheries showed the most number of gears in several habitat
(subsistence or large-scale), livelihood, and economic types suggesting high degree of dependence by fishers
development in the VIP. These impacts include increase on the habitats for fisheries and therefore demonstrated
in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level rise, immense potential climate change impacts. This could
increase in frequency and intensity of storms, changes eventually displace a number of fishers and therefore
in the variability of rainfall, and ocean acidification. As affect economic conditions. Mabini followed closely
an example, increase in SST will result in loss in coral whereas Verde and Puerto Galera were in the middle
cover through bleaching events and in the long term range. Lack of data did not permit assessment in
will affect the habitat complexity of reefs that in turn will Looc and Paluan although it appears that because
influence the settlement, recruitment, and survivorship of its proximity to Lubang, Looc likely show similar
of coral-dependent species. This consequently will conditions. The level of fishing effort of the gear types
reduce abundance and species diversity affecting the further demonstrate the exacerbating effects thus the
reef fish community structure. Warming will also modify vulnerability of the fisheries in Lubang.
behavior, timing of reproduction, reproductive output,
larval period, survivorship of recruits and therefore Table 23 shows the potential impacts of the fisheries in
recruitment failure, among others. For other nearshore the VIP by climate change impacts. In an increasing sea
habitats such as mangroves and seagrasses, seedling surface temperature, most of the target species will be
production, habitat fragmentation, decrease species affected through disruption in timing of reproduction,
diversity of associated organisms, and therefore affect decreased reproductive output, shorter larval duration,
high value fisheries associated to them. In addition, lower recruit survivorship, and recruitment failure
the exacerbating effects of anthropogenic factors leading to changes in fisheries productivity. Impact on
such as overfishing, pollution, habitat modification, critical habitats such as coral reefs, seagrasses, and
37
Table 21. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries based on the number of gear types (and their level of fishing effort) of the target species/taxa.
Caught by Number of Level of Vulnerability

Species/taxa gear type gear types fishing effort index
Mabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides) basnig (bag net), lambat 3 (high) medium medium to high
dilis (Engraulis) pandulong (gill net), scissor net 3 (high) medium medium to high
alumahan (Rastrelliger) 1 (low) medium low to medium
tambakol (Katsuwonus) 1 (low) medium low to medium
galunggong (Decapterus) lambat pante (gill net) 2 (medium) medium medium
hayhay (surface long line)
matambaka (Selar) hayhay (surface long line) 2 (medium) medium medium
lapu-lapu (groupers) 1 (low) medium to high medium

maya-maya (Lutjanus) kawil (hook and line), pana 1 (low) medium to high medium
kanoping (Lethrinus) (spear) 1 (low) medium to high medium
bisugo (nemipterids) 1 (low) medium to high medium
tulingan (Auxis) hayhay (surface long line) 1 (low) medium low to medium
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) pamanos (squid jig) 1 (low) medium low to medium
medium
angelfish (Pomacanthus) 1 (low) high medium
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus) 1 (low) high medium
damselfish (Chromis) hand nets (barrier net) 1 (low) high medium
anthiinid (Anthias) 1 (low) high medium
lion fish (Pterois) 1 (low) high medium
lapu-lapu (groupers) 1 (low) medium low to medium
manites (Upeneus) 1 (low) medium low to medium
galunggong (Decapterus) hayhay (long line) 1 (low) medium low to medium
alumahan (Rastrelliger)
lambat (gill net) 1 (low) low to medium low to medium
dalagang bukid (Caesio)
mulmol (Scarus) 1 (low) low to medium low to medium
pana (spear)
labahita (Naso) 1 (low) low to medium low to medium
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) pamanos (squid jig) 1 (low) low to medium low to medium
low to medium
Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus) lambat pante (gill net) 2 (medium) medium
tulingan (Auxis) 1 (low) medium low to medium
alumahan (Rastrelliger) 1 (low) low to medium
labahita (Naso) 1 (low) low to medium
pana (spear)
loro, mulmol (Scarus) 1 (low) medium low to medium
low to medium
Lubang, Occidental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus) basnig (bag net) 2 (medium) medium to high medium
dilis (Stolephorus) basnig (bag net), lambat 2 (medium) medium to high medium to high
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) (gill net) medium
pagulpol (Cypselurus) pante (gill net) 1 (low) medium low to medium
tangigue (Makaira) lambat (gill net) 1 (low) medium low to medium
gulyasan (tuna) lambat (gill net), kawil 2 (medium) medium to high medium
(hook and line)
maya-maya (Lutjanus) kawil (hook and line), bubo 1 (low) high medium
lapu-lapu (groupers) (trap), pana (spear), lambat 3 (high) high
labahita (Naso), rabbitfish (gill net) 3 (high) high
angelfish (Pomacanthus) hand nets (w/ compressor) medium low to medium
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus) hand nets (w/ compressor) medium low to medium
damselfish (Chromis) hand nets (w/ compressor) 1 (low) medium low to medium
anthiinid (Anthias) hand nets (w/ compressor) medium low to medium
bangus fry (Chanos chanos) scoop nets medium low to medium
medium
Looc, Occidental Mindoro
dilis (Stolephorus) basnig (bag net), lambat
talakitok (Carangoides) pandilis (anchovies), gill 3 (high)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) nets
matambaka (Selar) kawil (hook and line)
lapu-lapu (live groupers) kawil (hook and line), pana 2 (medium)
no data
maya-maya (Lutjanus) (spear) ?

angelfish (Pomacanthus) hand nets (w/ compressor)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus) hand nets (w/ compressor) 1 (low)
damselfish (Chromis) hand nets (w/ compressor)
anthiinid (Anthias) hand nets (w/ compressor)
bangus fry (Chanos chanos) scoop nets 1 (low)
38
Table 22. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries based on number of gear types per habitat type.
Habitat type
Caught by sand/ estuarine Vulnerability
Species/taxa gear type reef beach mangrove seagrass creeks/rivers pelagic index
Mabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides) basnig (bag net), lambat 1
dilis (Engraulis) pandulong (gill net), scissor net
alumahan (Rastrelliger) lambat pante (gill net) 4
tambakol (Katsuwonus) lambat pante (gill net)
galunggong (Decapterus) hayhay (surface long line) 1
matambaka (Selar) hayhay (surface long line)
medium to high
lapu-lapu (groupers) lambat pante (gill net)
maya-maya (Lutjanus) kawil (hook and line), pana (spear) 2
kanoping (Lethrinus) hayhay (surface long line) 1 1
bisugo (nemipterids) pamanos (squid jig)
tulingan (Auxis) 1 1
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) 1 1
No. of gears per habitat 4 (high) 1 (low) 1 (low) 1 (low) 2 (medium) 5 (high)
Level of fishing effort medium low low low to medium medium
to high medium to high
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis) hand nets (barrier net) 1
anthiinid (Anthias)
lion fish (Pterois) 1
lapu-lapu (groupers) kawil (hook and line) 1
manites (Upeneus) hayhay (long line)
medium
galunggong (Decapterus) 1
alumahan (Rastrelliger) lambat (gill net) 1 1
dalagang bukid (Caesio) 1 1
mulmol (Scarus) pana (spear)
labahita (Naso)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo) pamanos (squid jig)
No. of gears per habitat 6 (high) 2 (medium)
Level of fishing effort medium medium
Table 23. Matrix of prospective responses to climate change impacts highlighting the interacting effects between habitats and fisheries.
Responses
Climate estuaries/
change impact seagrass seaweeds reef fish mangroves creeks/rivers pelagic groupers
increased sea can be approached phenological reproductive output, decreased seedling see mangroves and shorter larval duration; shorter larval duration;
surface similar to corals/diversity characteristic disrupted; timing, survivorship of production, survivorship associated fisheries decreases survivorship enhanced recruitment
of associated organisms; change in overall recruits; recruitment lag/ and recruitment; lower especially in relation to due to low food variability; recruitment
temperature associated fishereies, e.g., community structure; failure; shorter larval recruitment regeneration; ontogenetic habitats availability; alter will be affected following
siganids, and high value slower growth and lower duration; abundance of phenological shifts and how adjacent reproductive periodicity decreased structural
invertebrate fisheries, diversity; low fecundity of coral dependent species characteristics disrupted; habitats can be seen in and eventual recruitment complexity via coral
reduced catch in some species will be reduced following associated fisheries exacerbated/synergistic survivorship leading bleaching ?;
finfish but may have a coral bleaching events will be reduced for negative effects, changes in fisheries reproductive output and
shift to detritivores and and decreased structural temperature dependent overfishing, and habitat productivity timing of reproduction will
omnivores complexity reproductive output fragmentation/loss be affected, especially
spawning aggregations
sea level rise shallow species will be can be well adapted to inundation of mangroves
most sensitive to change changes in sea levels and associated species
and will be vulnerable; (community level/change (fauna); reduce conditions
species found growing on in community structure) for settlement availability
the slopes can adjust to as nursery grounds for
changing depth other species; change in
sedimentation dynamics;
substrate erosion
increase storm disrupt recruitment events change in substrate topographic complexity/ disrupt recruitment events decreases survivorship affect recruitment due to
intensity and of associated faunal composition leading habitat refuge of associated faunal of recently recruited loss of habitat availability
species; decreases to changes in algal (composition, biomass, species (e.g., groupers, associated faunal species for settlement (e.g.,
frequency survivorship community structure; density); this can lead snappers, jacks); (e.g., groupers, snappers, decresed structural
storm paths/ burial and scouring to reduced fisheries decreases survivorship sprats, anchovies, bangus complexity)
productivity fry)
tracks propagules dislodged
storm surge prematurely; uprooting
of mature trees along
shoreline
rainfall change in water quality only a few species are can lead to habitat have salinity regulatory affect recruitment nutrient increases may
changes in will have changes in light stenohalines species that modification and reduce function of associated faunal lead to blooms
requirements/availability can survive diversity and abundance; species; decreases their
salinity this reduces fisheries survivorship
increased burial and mortality production change in sedimentation
dynamics
sedimentation
ocean will increase CO2;

acidification may favor seagrass
photosynthesis but may
not happen if the system
is already distressed
39
mangroves will affect the aforementioned attributes

of the associated fauna which include high value Vulnerable areas vs. ecologically critical
target species (e.g., siganids, groupers, snappers). or sensitive areas
For sea level rise, some habitats such as mangroves
will be inundated that will reduce available areas for Aside from vulnerable areas which are seen in the
recruitment of associated fauna that have fisheries context of vulnerability relative to the aspect of climate
value. In coral reefs, species on shallower parts (e.g., change, it is crucial to determine ecologically critical
reef flats) will be affected compared to those on reef or sensitive areas (e.g., coral reefs, seagrasses, and
slopes. Increase in frequency and intensity of storms mangrove areas) and other ecological functions (e.g.,
can greatly affect recruitment of target species through turtle nesting beaches, nursery and feeding areas of
reduction of suitable sites for recruitment and reduction important fisheries and/or threatened species). This is
in abundance and species diversity due to habitat loss important in complying with Philippine environmental
and decreased habitat complexity. Increase rainfall may laws as human activities (or at a scale of development
result in over supply of nutrients from the land and may such as over a 5 hectare area or a building higher
trigger algal blooms or will lead to hypoxic conditions than 4 floors) that are threatening these critical
that may affect existing aquaculture or mariculture. habitats shall require a mandatory full Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA). Considering that there are
The fisheries that are most vulnerable are those uncertainties and data gaps in predicting more specific
involving fishes that need different habitats throughout vulnerabilities, this is another precautionary step to
their life stages. For example, Mabini and Lubang/Looc highlight the complementarity of vulnerability and
have grouper and snapper fisheries. These fishes make adaptation insights.
use of estuaries, mangroves, seagrasses, corals, and
the pelagic realm during the different stages in their life.
40
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : recommendations
Recommendations
Apart from the threats of global climate change, the mentioned earlier the research and development and
marine resources in the Verde Island Passage are extension arena would need to involve a monitoring
already in a tremendous amount of stress due to and evaluation, response and feedback program that
various human pressures. The VIP is a major fishing mainstreams climate change. Linking with the ICE
ground. Over-fishing and use of destructive fishing CREAM program would be an immediate next step
methods disrupts the normal functions of the coral together with developing a cadre of local expertise from
reef ecosystem. They reduce populations of key reef the various higher education institutions, would be an
organisms either by direct extraction of coral and opportunity not to miss. Highly qualified expertise such
reef fish species or by destruction of corals during those in the De La Salle University Brother Shields
fishing (Licuanan and Gomez 2000, Wilkinson 2004, Marine Lab are available and are part of the ICE
Deocadez et al. 2009). The passage is also a major CREAM program.
navigational and shipping lane, and is constantly
under threat by oil spills and strandings. Similarly, it is Research and monitoring imperatives
also surrounded by various industries such as ports,
oil refineries etc., which pollutes, increases nutrient There are considerable gaps in the fisheries profiling
influx and sedimentation in reef areas. Pollution, and the related targeted research and monitoring
sedimentation, and nutrients affect the survival of coral concerns. The priority interactive concerns of the
communities either by smothering corals and preventing ecological and social systems are necessary to be
coral recruitment (McClanahan and Obura 1997) integrated into an adaptation plan with its adaptive
or by promoting growth of macro-algae and other management approach.
invertebrates (McCook 1999, Nugues and Roberts
2003). Other pressures impacting the coral reefs in the Incorporating an adaptive management approach
VIP is tourism, mining, coastal settlement, and other would mean that the overall management framework
land-based activities. is integrated into an overarching context and
governance process that will be able to provide
Adaptation mechanisms would require that the present timely interventions with the appropriate monitoring
CRM programs be more tightly integrated through and evaluation plan.
establishing knowledge based communities. These Fisheries profiling using the FISH BE (Fisheries
would involve multiple stakeholders working together and Bio-economic model) framework approach to
and the incipient MPA network in the VIP would be a link effort regulation, MPA, and pollution abatement,
good starting point. The various CRM working groups among others.
would also need to engage with each other through Climate change enhanced research on target life
inter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law enforcement history studies and monitoring to provide inputs to
teams (FLET) and bay management councils or VIP an ecosystem approach to fisheries management
level alliances can be formed. and evaluate exacerbating effects e.g., collaborate
with the Department of Science and Technology
Improving management through good CRM governance (DOST) funded ICE CREAM (Integrated Coastal
processes where climate adaptation systems are Enhancement: Coastal Research, Evaluation and
mainstreamed is imperative. The fisheries ecosystem Adaptive Management) program. An opportunity
approach to management will need to be put in place whereby the MPA network provides social network
as natural links to the present conservation efforts with insights that also derives biophysical information
the tourism industry. Reduction of prevailing threats from an integrated monitoring of governance,
such as illegal and destructive fishing, emerging ecological and social and economic indicators.
pollution, and habitat degradation from urban and Determine Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
industrial development must also be addressed. priority areas which highlights mitigating impacts
Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers from coastal and marine development activities
and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending (e.g., foreshore and navigation) so as to determine
climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of an overall integrated coastal management approach
our next generations. to the VIP incorporating climate change and
threatened species concerns. This should have a
Since the VIP is the area where the State of the Coast close link with the social and economic research
has been piloted in the province of Batangas, the imperatives, e.g., reducing threats from unplanned
opportunity to scale up these efforts and at the same development trends and improving compliance
integrate within an ICM approach is imperative. As through market and non-market based incentives.
41
Results should be reported regularly, e.g., no longer The philosophical and pragmatic question is which
than for every relevant period such as a monsoon, general type of reef systemthe areas that are used
or as needed as when there is an impending to variability or the areas that have been always
catastrophic or disaster event. Also, the state of warmare more susceptible to future climate
the coasts mandates required in EO 533 is another change. There is a need to examine the species
venue for reporting and feedback and to engage (seagrass, coral, coral-zooxanthallae symbiont) that
in adjustments and mainstreaming lessons learned have survived repetitive or extreme thermal anomaly
into policies, ordinances, and action plans. and factor these in management and rehabilitation
Changes in shoreline positions can now be easily plans of coastal habitats.
established due to the availability of satellite Other exacerbating events like crown-of-thorns
images. However, what the time series of images break-out should also be documented.
can define are only snapshots of changes. Ocean acidification trends and projections is a gap
Information on possible magnitude of erosion due of special concern.
to a single or series of storms or the pace of a
subsequent recovery can only be captured through Scenarios for adaptation
monitoring and partly through systematic interviews
of long-time coastal residents. The high variability Areas that suggest that adaptation measures are
of coastal systems in the VIP corridor requires imperative shall be those which are crucial to marine
localized studies. In areas with very narrow coastal biodiversity, the life histories of important fisheries
plains such as in coral reef areas, images with species, and human well-being.
resolution better than 30 meters are required and
field surveys are vital. For biodiversity and fisheries, these areas would be
Since the sediments of beaches associated with high candidate sites for expanding sizes or establishing
coral reefs are biogenic in origin, identification areas as marine protected areas (MPA). This will not
of the type and their sources are also needed. only help in the conservation of existing flora and
Identification of the drivers of shoreline change fauna but also in the replenishment of fisheries stocks
requires both regional and site specific studies by regulating fishing effort. In addition to MPA, it is
and retracing of climate, oceanographic, biologic, imperative that adoption of access and use rights
geologic, and land use changes. fisheries management interventions are put in place
Due to the limited information available on the such as close and open seasons, gear regulations and
condition of seagrass beds around VIP, assessment effort controls combined with access incentives linked
on the impacts of climate change on this ecosystem to stewardship e.g., reserves related to enhancement
is incomplete. Information on areas covered by and sea ranching of highly valued invertebrates species.
seagrasses, demographic and recruitment-mortality
will be most useful in projecting the impact of For human well-being, these areas would also be sites
climate change in any given area which deliver multiple services to the community not
Eutrophication was identified as an exacerbating only as source of livelihood but also provide protection
factor to coastal habitat vulnerability. Delivery of from climate-related hazards.
nutrients from various land-based anthropogenic
activities need to be identified in order to come up Recommendations and next steps
with appropriate land-use management options.
Sediment and nutrient delivery are not necessarily The fisheries ecosystem approach to management
locally-derived. Far-fetched sources, especially will need to put in place as natural links to the
relevant during extreme precipitation and storm present conservation efforts with the tourism industry.
events, also need to be determined. This can be Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers
achieved using fine-scale particle tracking with and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending
multiple release points under different climate climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of
scenarios. our next generations.
The same particle-tracking, modified to suit specific
species, can also be used to study connectivity The following are key strategies that will support efforts
within and from outside the VIP. This can be used in moving forward a strategic conservation plan that
as one of the tools in identifying areas that need to will harmonize with a sustainable fisheries management
be protected from a regional point-of-view. agenda for the VIP consistent with a SSS and the
Different extreme events were shown to affect the Priority Biodiversity Conservation in the Philippines
health of habitat and fisheries. However, currently (e.g., Ong et al. 2002).
lacking are on-the-ground measurements of
recruitment failures due to episodic events.
42
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : recommendations
Adaptation mechanisms would require that the present Moreover, the concept of interconnectivity resiliency
CRM programs are more tightly integrated through has consequence on fisheries with fish that need
establishing knowledge-based communities. different habitats throughout their life stages (such
as snappers and groupers) being most vulnerable.
These would involve multiple stakeholders working For example, the existence of these targeted
together and the incipient MPA network in the fisheries in Wawa-Paluan and Puerto Galera-Naujan
Verde Island Passage (VIP) would be a good is therefore partially buffered whereas those in
starting point. The various CRM working groups Mabini and Lubang are more vulnerable. Measures
would also need to engage with each other must therefore be taken for habitat protection in
through inter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law Mabini and Lubang for the sustainability of the
enforcement teams (FLET) and bay management snapper and grouper fisheries in these sites.
councils or VIP level alliances can be formed. In sites that have shown significant adaptive
Since the VIP is the area where the state of the capacity and at the same time in sites where the
coast has been piloted in the province of Batangas, fisheries were found vulnerable, measures must
the opportunity to scale up these efforts and at be taken to reduce of prevailing threats such as
the same integrate within an ICM approach is illegal and destructive fishing, emerging pollution
imperative. As mentioned earlier, the research and and habitat degradation from urban and industrial
development and extension areas would need a development.
monitoring and evaluation program, and a response In addition, given that sea level will accelerate in the
and feedback program that mainstreams climate coming years and that storms are likely to increase
change. Improving management effectiveness in frequency and possibly strengthen, the natural
through MPA network complementation with buffers to sea level rise and impact of large waves,
fisheries management (e.g., grow-out of group fry such as coral reefs and mangroves, should be
and dulong in conjunction with other aquarium), protected and rehabilitated.
and Lubang and invertebrate fishery (e.g., in areas Areas fronting the South China Sea and the
with wide reef flats such as Lian and Calatagan Sibuyan Sea may have a relatively higher storm
areas, tourism certification and or link with tourism). surge potential compared to those within the VIP.
Linking with the ICE CREAM program would be The wave models show that in particular the areas
an immediate next step together with developing exhibiting large bottom orbital velocities are the
a cadre of local expertise from the various coasts facing Tayabas Bay, the northern coast
higher education institutions (HEI), would be an of Lubang and possibly the western coast of the
opportunity not to miss. Highly qualified on-site Calatagan Peninsula.
expertise such those in the De La Salle University
Brother Shields Marine Lab are available and are Deforestation and extensive agriculture in the
part of the ICE CREAM programVIP network watersheds, long steep slopes, and presence of
establishment with UB and BSU for fisheries and numerous faults, high seismicity, and volcanoes all
Biodiversity monitoring; Provincial MPA municipal promote a high sediment yield. These potential will be
cluster networks can be established to provide a more intense during extreme weather events.
venue to establish joint enforcement, M&E and IEC
teams wherein they have some ecological basis In some areas, this high sediment yield has resulted
for their clustering e.g., adjacent boundaries and to rapid accretion. However, it should be noted
circulation connectivity. that this newly prograded lands, in addition to
existing low lying areas inlandpresently occupied
Based on available literature on the interconnectivity of by wetlands, fishponds, rice fields and coconut
mangrove, seagrass and coral reef, protecting adjacent plantations, are evaluated to be the most vulnerable
ecosystems may increase the resilience of these to marine inundation (e.g., areas such as Nasugbu
ecosystems to the impacts, including that of climate and Balayan that experienced rapid accretion in
change. recent years, are the most vulnerable to coastal
inundation; a 1 meter rise of sea level will already
This phenomenon of interconnectivity resilience is result to inundated of about 175 ha in Nasugbu and
exhibited by sites where all of the coastal habitats 199 ha in Balayan).
can be persistently found (i.e., in Calatagan, Instead of utilizing the newly prograded lands in the
Batangas and San Juan, Batangasalso referred VIP for various development, these can instead be
to as Batangas Eastand in a lesser degree in used by the LGUs and national agencies as buffers
Wawa-Paluan, Mindoro Occidental and Puerto to erosion and action of large waves. Greenbelts,
Galera-Naujan, Oriental Mindoro). of the appropriate assemblage, can be established
in these newly prograded lands. Wide mangrove
43
plains will also reduce the level of nutrients and

sediments entering the sea and create nursery Early response and immediate
habitats for fisheries. management recommendations
Moreover, although the high sediment yield of
watersheds has led to accretion, it is likely that it Seasonal regulation of dulong, milkfish fry and other
has played a large role in the degradation of coral fry fishery with very minimal fishing during peak
reef ecosystems and in the decline of coastal and occurrence (based on lunar periodicity). This will
offshore fisheries. In the formulation of mitigation reduce fishing mortality at the early life stages.
and adaptation measures, this link between the Establishment of fry-grow out schemes to enhance
marine ecosystem and the watershed should be juvenile survivorship e.g., for grouper, bangus and
considered. high value invertebrates in conjunction with MPA
buffer reserve area.
Watershed sediments ending at the coast leads to Gear effort control at varying habitat types (e.g., live
coastal degradation. This is further exacerbated by fish collectors, fish corral deployment); establish
erosion along the coast caused about by human incentives for regulating effort through certification
modifications such as inappropriate ports, quarrying, schemes and targeting stakeholders for capacity
and removal of mangroves and seagrasses. building.
Stricter enforcement over illegal fishing practices
Location of ports need not only take into (blastfishing, cyanide fishing, poaching) and
consideration the economic development but capacity building for inter-hierarchical network
should position the ports in such as way as not to enforcement teams and incentives for stewards and
impede longshore sediment drift. Moreover, we IEC for greater social pressures on illegalistas
advocate constructing open ports which allow Increase sizes of protected areas including other
water to flow in between pilings. habitat types (e.g., mangroves, seagrasses,
Stop stone mining. Give alternative livelihood (e.g., lagoons). Aside from fishery benefits, this
the river mouth and flanks of Abra de Ilog show mechanism will ensure good conditions of
erosion of ~150 m between 2001 and 2009. protected areas, and therefore less sensitive to
Pebble picking activities is most likely contributing climate change. Identify areas for refugia and stock
to, if not the main cause, of the erosion west of the enhancement strategies.
river mouth). Alternative livelihood (other economic/job
There is a need to educate people from various opportunities) to fishing to reduce fishing pressure
strata of the functions of mangroves and coral reefs and other supplemental livelihood support (e.g.,
towards the protection of the beach, e.g., erosion training of invertebrate grow out on reserve areas)
of about 200 m occurred along the mouth of Proper zonation of use of coastal waters (fishery
Kampungpong River in Batangas City. Removal of zone, MPA, aquaculture zone, industry zone) as
the mangrove, large constructions and expansions this will lower sensitivity of habitats and therefore
of piers along the coast of Batangas City are likely vulnerability and reduce conflicting uses with
linked to the erosion. clearer guidelines, ordinances and incentives per
Development along the coasts and the plains zone that incorporates climate considerations (e.g.,
should also consider the likely natural changes that erosion, sea surface temperature, and siltation).
can take place due to tectonics, volcanism and river
dynamics (e.g., erosion along the Baco-Malaylay
delta may have been triggered by liquefaction
caused by the magnitude 7.1 earthquake on a
segment of Lubang Fault, south of Verde Island on
November 15, 1994).
A lot of coastal developments (including planting of
mangroves on seagrass beds) have been observed
around Batangas that either removes seagrasses
or constructs barriers that influence the natural
hydrology within the coastal areas. The latter makes
the seagrasses around VIP more vulnerable to
eutrophication caused by impediment of the flow of
water in these areas.
44
chapter 1 vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : references
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46
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : vulnerability assessment for adaptation
Chapter 2:
Human well-being and climate
change in the Verde Island
Passage: vulnerability assessment
for adaptation
Rowena R. Boquiren1, Lead Integrator
Contributing Authors: Annabelle Trinidad1, Rina Rosales (consultant), Niva Gonzales (consultant)
1 Conservation InternationalPhilippines
47
Introduction
Climate change, gradually being experienced globally
is adversely affecting the wellbeing of humanity. In the
Philippines Verde Island Passage Marine Biodiversity
Conservation Corridor, now more popularly known as
the center of the center of marine biodiversity, rising sea
level and surface temperature, pronounced storminess
and unpredictable rainfall patterns are disturbing
peoples food and livelihood security, water security,
health security as well as cultural and options values.
The greatest concentration of marine species in the

Indo-Malay-Philippine Archipelago is as threatened by
climate change as the human population, especially
along the passage.
Figure 41. Geographic scope of the socioeconomic
Objective vulnerability assessment in the Verde Island Passage,
municipalities abutting it, and coastal habitats found there.
As its first objective, a socio-economic team assessed
the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of coastal
communities in the Verde Island Passage to climate
change. As a second objective the initiative had
a methodological component which was to test
appropriate approaches for engaging mandated
agencies in the vulnerability assessment. To the
extent that appropriate methodologies have yet to be
developed for Philippine ecosystem situations, the
socioeconomic aspect was addressed iteratively as a
learning process, by demonstrating to local governance
units and line agencies the steps in the vulnerability
assessment.
The following specific objectives were addressed:
identify impacts of climate change in the physical,

biological, and socio-economic systems;
describe responses of the biological/ecological and
socio-economic systems;
determine the vulnerability of these systems;
provide management recommendations to address
climate change impacts; and,
identify knowledge gaps and research priorities.
48
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : methodology
Methodology
Climate change vulnerability of a particular area was causes might include poverty, insecure property rights,
defined as the amount of exposure and sensitivity less natural resource dependency, degraded resources, and
the capacity of the community to adapt. Exposure weaknesses in institutions and political assets (Adger
and sensitivity, defined below, are the recommended 1999). Adaptive capacity can be strengthened through
vulnerability assessment indicators of climate change policies that enhance social and economic equity,
impacts on human wellbeing. reduce poverty, improve natural resources and coastal
management, increase public participation, generate
Exposure useful and actionable information, and strengthen
Exposure is defined as the types of valued assets that institutions.
are at risk of being impacted by changes in climate.
These assets include social assets (people, health, For heuristic purposes, because vulnerability
education), economic assets (property, infrastructure, assessment methodology in the Philippine setting has
and income), and ecological assets (natural resources not yet been developed, the team selected the following
and ecological services) (USAID 2009). The profile of socioeconomic concerns in the Verde Island Passage
foreshore areas would allow stakeholders to assess project, using interdisciplinary perspectives to guide
exposure appropriately. For this component, assets research methods:
can be ranked in terms of their importance to local
stakeholders and to the local and/or national economy. economic trends and livelihood sources (with focus
on fisheries, tourism and foreshore development);
Sensitivity health and food safety.
Sensitivity refers to the degree of likely damage of
an asset if exposed to climate change. To assess the The vulnerability assessment process started with 1)
sensitivity of coastal assets exposed to climate change, knowing the climate change projection, 2) determination
the following questions may be considered (USAID of exposure and sensitivity of a given region or locale
2009): to climate change, including the assessment of the
health of coastal habitats and ecosystems, and 3) an
How and to what degree were social, economic assessment of adaptive capacity (capacity of society to
and ecological assets affected by past climate cope with the expected or actual climate changes).
conditions and coastal hazard events?
What specific characteristics make groups or Participative and inter-agency collaborative methods
systems sensitive? were observed in the project. Iterative learning over
Was everyone equally impacted? If not, what were nine months depended on accessed agency reports,
the differences between various individuals and roundtable discussions, interviews, focus groups
groups? discussions and workshops across varied lines of
What is the sensitivity of non-exposed assets? focus and expertise. Participative techniques engaged
For example, agriculture activities that take place local government units (LGU) from the provincial and
away from the coast may rely on a highly exposed down to the municipal levels, stakeholders from coastal
and sensitive coastal road or port for export. Losing communities and non-governmental organizations
this transportation asset could result in a loss in the in generating and systematizing information from
value of the agricultural assets. the ground, to be linked with insights of academics,
scientists and experts across disciplines in the physical,
Adaptive capacity biological and social sciences.
Adaptive capacity is the most critical of the three
dimensions because it shows a communitys ability to The research process demonstrated what variables
manage and thereby reduce gross vulnerability. Hence, or data are to be accessed from agencies, generated
vulnerability is increased when adaptive capacities are from rapid site assessments and through inter-agency
minimal or not present. or multi-sectoral workshops to generate the baseline;
how to customize climate change-sensitive instruments;
Assessing the adaptive capacity of a place or sector what tools and measures can be creatively developed
helps in understanding why vulnerability exists in the to facilitate vulnerability assessment; and in what
first place. To reduce vulnerability, stakeholders must aspects the help of support groups can be tapped
understand its root causes. These are much deeper for science-based disciplinal expertise and technical
societal issues than, for example, poorly constructed inputs.
houses being located in areas of coastal erosion. Root
49
Context analysis from the baseline as premise of the Rising sea levels inundate wetlands and other low-lying
vulnerability assessment was first observed by the team: lands, erode beaches, intensify flooding, and increase
background on the sector, its importance, components/ the salinity of rivers, bays, and groundwater tables,
aspects and trends related to climate change impacts but some of these effects may be compounded by
on the marine resources that the people experience. As adaptation activities such as measures that people take
a basis to the assessment, profiles were laid down, no to protect private property from rising sea level that may
matter how preliminary, as a flexible and opportunistic have adverse effects on the environment and on public
approach to data gathering in view of institutional gaps. uses of fish ports, beaches and waterways. Foreshore
development, for instance, can bring in increasing
The vulnerability and resilience potentials of coastal investments for physical infrastructure such as sea walls
communities were addressed next, followed by or reclaimed areas in the short term, but in the longer
recommendations to management units. The novelty term, these structures and human activities can damage
of climate change impacts in institutional mechanisms mangrove ecosystems, fragment habitats, damage
and in the public mind requires plans and policies to be nutrient flows or cause destructive algal blooms which
scaled up beyond the normative and routine by being can aggravate climate change effects. Vulnerability
inter-linked and inter-agency driven in emphasizing assessment is therefore essentially related to disaster
the importance of human wellbeing along with marine risk reduction and management.
biodiversity conservation.
More studies are needed to have appropriate guidelines
Climate change effects on and of the people in the for addressing adaptation. The vulnerability assessment
vulnerability assessment process are illustrated in a exercise for Verde Island Passage is still exploratory but
framework creatively designed by the team (Fig. 42). already significant for its methodological contributions.
Extreme changes in climate affect marine habitats
and species which then impact upon the economic
uses of the marine waters and coasts as well as the
livelihood and health of communities. Changes in sea
surface temperature (SST), accelerated sea level rise
(ASLR), storminess and unexpected precipitation
patterns have effects on the fisheries, tourism and
foreshore development trends that will damage or
destroy investments if there are no climate change
adaptation actions early enough. Beyond understanding
the effects of climate change on the socioeconomic
conditions of communities dependent on marine
resources, the vulnerability assessment also included
the exacerbating anthropogenic factors that affect the
marine environment, represented by the back flows of
arrows.
Fig. 42. Socioeconomic aspects in the vulnerability

assessment of the Verde Island Passage.
50
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : methodology
Summary: methodology for socioeconomic vulnerability assessment

Fisheries
Characterization of the fisheries sector in Verde Island Passage (VIP) was done through literature review and analysis
of fisheries statistics from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). Data from BAS was used to infer volume and
value of production and number of fishers from three provinces in Verde Island Passage , namely: Batangas, Occidental
Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro. Finer scale data provided by technical reports allowed a more in-depth analysis for
selected municipalities including: Mabini and Tingloy, for tuna fisheries (Soliman manuscript); Verde Island, Lubang, Looc
and Paluan municipalities, for aquarium fishing (MAC and REEFcheck report); and Mabini, coral reef fisheries (MERF
report). The compendium of PCAMRD on the impacts of El Nio on fisheries was compiled and used to supplement the
literature review on increase in sea surface temperature.
A perceptual survey with 41 respondents and key informant interviews were conducted in the municipalities of Mabini,
Bauan, Calatagan, Lian and Batangas City in April-May 2009 to determine how a sample of fishers perceive climate
change. In particular, the following manifestations of climate change were validated: changes in frequency, occurrence,
and magnitude of typhoons; changes in frequency, occurrence, and intensity of rainfall; sea level rise.
Tourism and foreshore development
The profile of the tourism sector and foreshore development status and trends was generated from previous studies,
accessed data from government agencies in the VIP, interviews and a field survey in April to June 2009.
A climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted on July 22 to 24, 2009 participated in mostly by local
government representatives from the coastal municipalities of the five provinces surrounding Verde Island Passage,
namely Batangas, Mindoro Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, and Romblon. Resource persons from the
natural and social sciences shared their initial assessments and frameworks for analysis on the potential impacts of
climate change occurrences that are projected to occur. Climate change impacts include the following: increase in sea
surface temperature, sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of typhoons, changing rainfall patterns, and ocean
acidification. Economic and social sectors that were assessed in terms of their vulnerability to such climate change
occurrences include: fisheries, food safety and security, tourism and settlements/infrastructure in foreshore areas.
The framework for assessing the vulnerability of foreshore areas was applied by some of the participants coming from
municipalities with significant infrastructure development in their respective foreshore areas, i.e., Balayan-Batangas,
Calatagan-Batangas, Bauan-Batangas, Nasugbu-Batangas, Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Naujan-Mindoro
Oriental. Appendix A contains the list of participants for the foreshore area workshop group.
For the tourism sector, the framework for assessing the vulnerability was applied by some of the participants coming from
municipalities with active tourism activities, i.e., Mabini-Batangas, Lian-Batangas, Tingloy-Batangas, Bauan-Batangas,
Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Calapan-Mindoro Oriental. Other municipalities with plans of increasing tourism in
their areas also participated in the tourism workshop group.
Workshop objectives were provided as follows:
Identify impacts of climate change in the physical, biological and socio-economic systems.
Describe responses of the biological/ecological and socio-economic systems.
Determine vulnerability of these systems.
Provide management recommendations to address climate change impacts.
Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities.
Health, food safety, and demographic trends
Accessed data from government agencies (National Statistical Board, National Statistics Office, Provincial/Municipal
Planning and Development Offices of Batangas, Mindoro Oriental and Mindoro Occidental) were the sources for the
demographic and health profile of the Passage, supplemented by information from the Batangas Provincial Disaster
Coordinating Office.
Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted in the municipalities of Mabini, Bauan, Calatagan,
Lian and Batangas City in April-May 2009 to reconstruct health and food safety observations and experiences over the
past 5-10 years and the local peoples current knowledge on climate change.
A climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted on July 22 to 24, 2009:
Identify the impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems and their resulting responses in the Verde Island
Passage.
Determine other impacts (natural or anthropogenic) that further contribute to the vulnerability of these systems.
Provide recommendation for actions to address the impacts of climate change by increasing resilience, reducing
vulnerability, increasing capacity for adaptation.
Identify policy and knowledge gaps and research priorities.
51
Results and discussion

Profile of the Verde Island Passage and flooding, erosion, siltation, and other damages brought
vulnerable socioeconomic situation by storms.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Biodiversity and ecosystem soundness are both
4th report detailed the impacts of climate change that threatened by the status and direction of development
affect human populations: in the Verde Island Passage. Along with manufacturing,
residential and institutional uses, fishing, farming, and
Floods and droughts will be more frequent, and tourism, the passage is an essential route for industrial
storms more intense. and economic activities. Its waterways are some of
Water will be in shorter (and more erratic) supply. the busiest in the Philippines, being used daily by oil
Sea level rise will result in salt water intrusion in and chemical carriers. Consequently, the shores of the
coastal areas decreasing available freshwater. province of Batangas are lined with shipyards, chemical
Water pollution will be worsened by higher water and petrochemical plants, and oil refineries.
temperatures, increased precipitation, and longer
dry periods. Other observed trends and facts on the socioeconomic
The likelihood of water borne diseases will increase. situation in the Verde Island Passage are the following:
Aquatic ecosystems will suffer changes in water
availability and related extinctions of species Overfishing and the use of illegal fishing methods
sensitive to water temperature and availability. such as the use of sodium cyanide, explosives, and
fine-meshed nets.
In addition to natural processes, threats to the rich Mangrove plantations are cut for other land uses
but fragile environmental resources within and around that include fish farming. Calatagans mangrove
the Verde Island Passage become more pronounced areas had been reduced to a mere 26.3 ha from 1
as population, conservation and natural resource 32.8 hectares in 1950 (Gonzales 2009).
management issues persist. Developments that Agriculture is intensified, necessitating increased
respond to the escalating needs for income and food, use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. Batangas
industrialization and urbanization pose greater risks to itself has surpassed its capacity levels, with crop
the environment and to peoples livelihood and health. production activities utilizing marginal lands,
including upland areas (Lusterio-Berja and Colson
Biophysical setting 2008).
The Verde Island Passage extends about 100 km, Forest cover has been diminished as this land
from Lubang, Mindoro Occidental in the northwest, to has been converted to cultivation. Logging and
the Romblons island municipality of Corcuera in the extractive industries such as mining put entire forest
southeast, and about 20 km across at its narrowest ecosystems at risk.
portion. The passage, a total of more than 494,700 Forest patches and agricultural lands are cleared to
hectares, is a special management area under the make way for new human settlements and for profit-
jurisdiction of five provinces: Batangas, Occidental making ventures at various scales.
Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon. Garbage and toxic effluents from settlements,
industrial operations and intensified agricultural
Warmer temperatures, diminished waters sources, production contaminate the ground and water
and soil erosion results from a thinning forest cover bodies through seepage and run off. Residuals
while fish production is adversely affected by such from households and agriculture contribute to the
changes as the loss of mangroves. Around the Verde pollution of Batangas Bay and Verde Passage
Island Passage, the provinces of Batangas, Romblon (Arcenas 2008, in Gonzales 2009).
and Marinduque have the least forest cover in relation Wastewater discharge from Batangas Citys
to their respective land areas, with 4.46, 5.41, and industries is estimated at almost 600 million
13.78% respectively (Forest Management Bureau or liters per year, 98% of which come from the
FMB 2003). manufacturing, refinery and power industries
(Gonzales 2009). Oil spills from ships are a
Low-lying and coastal communities as well as industries constant threat given the numerous local and
are exposed to hazards associated with strong international ports and shipyards in Batangas
typhoons and heavy rains. At least 51 barangays in province and the Verde Passage being a busy route
10 Batangas municipalities are more predisposed to for cargo and passenger vessels.
Residential areas, including informal settlements,
52
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : results and discussion
expand especially in the lowland and coastal areas opportunities have migrated into areas with more
where commerce, industry and infrastructure are options. Notably, Puerto Galera, Looc and Lubang are
concentrated. Population congestion and mounting increasingly becoming attractive as tourist destinations,
garbage expose people to diseases and other with the Lubang Island known for its wealth in fish
problems. resources (Occidental Mindoro PPDO 2009; Oriental
More frequent algal blooms that are harmful to the Mindoro PPDO 2008).
health of marine resources and thus, of humans, are
likely due to pollution of water bodies. Among the five provinces of the Verde Island Passage,
Decline in fish catch has been attributed to the Batangas is the most densely populated at 720 people
establishment of industries in the coastal areas. km2, which is higher than the 709 people km2 for
Industrial and vehicular emissions cause air the entire Region IV-A Calabarzon (refers to Cavite,
pollution. In 2004, Batangas City had a one-year Laguna, Batangas and Rizal Zone). Calabarzon has
exposure level of 127 g m-3 total suspended the largest population and is the second most densely
particulates which consist of dust, smoke, soot, populated region in the country. It draws an influx of
and acid fumes usually produced by motor people because of the lucrative economic opportunities
vehicles and fuel-burning facilities. Exceeding the presented by its growing number of industries.
acceptable level of 90 g m-3, the citys inhabitants
are predisposed to cardiovascular and respiratory While industrialization draws people into the urban
diseases (Lusterio-Berja and Colson 2008). center, poverty continues to be a great challenge
despite income derived from industries, tourism,
Demographic trends and the status of human agriculture and fisheries. A quarter to about half of
health and safety the families in the Verde Island Passage provinces
Climate change impacts in the Verde Island Passage had incomes below the designated poverty and food
may influence three factors that impact upon the state thresholds in 2006. Batangas with 25.6% poverty
of human health: settlement expansion from fertility lacked more than 12% in fish supply in terms of per
and migration, increased economic opportunities and capita consumption in 2004 (Batangas PPDO 2007).
urbanization. Baseline data on these factors are well Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro slipped
established but have not been appropriately considered into becoming the 12th and 13th poorest provinces
in terms of adaptation to climate change. in the Philippines from being 32nd and 36th in 2000,
and from being 28th and 19th in 2003. Romblon
The five provinces (Table 24) flanking the Verde Island became the 25th poorest province in the country. A
Passage consist of 32 municipalities and two cities considerable section of the population are fisherfolks:
which support 3,913,000 people (46.07% of the total more than 16,000 fishers in Batangas City and other
2007 population). In Batangas, Occidental Mindoro Batangas towns beside the Verde Island Passage (year
and Oriental Mindoro, more than 251 barangays (28%) 2007), 15,535 municipal fishermen lived in Oriental
serve as residence to 34% (557,710) of the population. Mindoro in 2008.
In summary, from one third to almost a half of the total
population of Verde Island Passage provinces are There are significant reproductive and other health
residents of coastal communities where the population concerns in the region. Mimaropa registered a total
size grows fastest. fertility rate of 5.0% in 2003, which was the highest in
the country, as against Calabarzon's 3.2%, the lowest
Known coastal centers of commerce and industry in during the period. Although Batangas has an obvious
Batangas province such as Batangas City, Nasugbu, advantage over the Mimaropa provinces in terms of
Taal, and Balayan had higher annual population growth economic position, health services and infrastructure,
rates than Batangas province as a whole. In 2000, a contraceptive prevalence in the province was only
total of 67% of the regions population lived in urban 41.77% (Batangas PPDO 2007) and 2007 crude birth
areas where industries and commercial establishments rate (22.96) was even higher than those of Occidental
were already concentrated (Lusterio-Berja and Colson and Oriental Mindoro (20.49 and 20.9 respectively).
2008). Batangas City itself had a crude birth rate of 21.23
and an infant mortality rate of 16.83 (Batangas City
Although there are lower annual population growth OCPDC 2007), which was more than double the
rates for the provinces, growth rate in the municipalities provincial rate, and almost three and four times that of
of Looc and Lubang increased from 0.22% in 1995- Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro respectively.
2000, to 3.41% and 3.35% respectively in 2000- Moreover, 8.2% of all children below 72 months old
2007, higher than the national average of 2.3%. Puerto were considered malnourished because they weighed
Galeras annual growth rate also increased from 2.56% below normal low (BNL) and very low (BNVL).
to 3.45%. People from communities with less economic
53
Table 24. Population of municipalities and barangays along the Verde Island Passage (VIP).
Province/ Population (2007) No. of barangays Population Annual population

municipality/ barangays per along density per growth rate %
city total along VIP mun/city VIP sq km (2007) (2000-2007)
PHILIPPINES 88,574,614 295 2.04

Region IV-A (Calabarzon) 11,743,110 709 3.24
Batangas province 2,245,869 720 2.29
Balayan 79,407 20,873 48 11 730 2.33
Batangas City 295,231 65,774 105 18 1,043 2.46
Bauan 79,831 24,348 40 10 1,199 1.32
Calaca 64,966 19,191 40 8 648 1.46
Calatagan 51,544 34,433 25 16 460 1.87
Lemery 76,090 27,149 46 13 749 1.87
Lian 44,925 19,114 19 6 585 1.92
Lobo 37,798 18,589 26 10 196 1.51
Mabini 40,629 20,616 34 13 946 1.12
Nasugbu 113,926 29,488 42 7 433 2.37
San Juan 87,276 26,537 42 15 319 1.53
San Luis 29,645 10,091 26 6 757 1.34
San Pascual 57,200 18,942 29 3 1,637 2.14
Taal 51,459 4,825 42 1 1,729 2.36
Tingloy 18,548 18,548 15 15 572 1.19
Total population along the VIP 1,128,475 358,518 579 152
Region IV-B (Mimaropa) 2,559,791 93 1.49

Occidental Mindoro 421,952 72 1.56
Abra de Ilog 25,152 10,117 9 3 47 1.89
Looc 11,310 10,317 9 8 85 3.41
Lubang 28,267 28,267 16 9 250 3.35
Paluan 13,718 4,191 12 2 24 2.01
Total population along the VIP 78,447 52,892 46 22
Oriental Mindoro 735,769 169 1.06

Baco 34,127 7,526 27 6 141 1.71
City of Calapan 116,976 47,014 62 18 441 1.38
Gloria 40,561 12,166 27 8 176 0.66
Naujan 90,629 14,275 70 11 172 1.07
Pinamalayan 77,119 26,977 37 9 278 0.77
Pola 32,635 10,618 23 9 251 0.30
Puerto Galera 28,035 19,742 13 12 125 3.45
San Teodoro 15,039 7,982 8 4 41 1.19
Total population along the VIP 435,121 146,300 267 77
Marinduque 229,636 241 0.76

Buenavista 21,018
Gasan 33,772 Total population of Batangas, Occ. Mindoro, and Or. Mindoro 3,403,590
Mogpog 33,341 Number of VIP municipalities and cities in the above 24 + 2
Total population along the VIP 138,954 Total population of the 24 municipalities and 2 cities 1,642,042
Total population of VIP barangays in above 557,710 (34%)
% of total provincial population 60.51% Total population of non-VIP barangays in above 1,084,332 (66%)
Romblon 279,774 1 0.78

Banton 6,799
Concepcion 4,166 Total number of barangays in the VIP municipalities and
Coruera 10,883 cities of Batangas, Occ. Mindoro, and Or. Mindoro 892
Total population of island Number of VIP barangays 251 (28.14%)
municipalities along the VIP 21,848 Number of non-VIP barangays in the VIP municipalities and
cities of the 3 provinces 641 (71.86%)
% of total provincial population 7.81%
Source: Collated by SEPU for the Population, Health and Environment (PHE) network from materials and data availed through the Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO) of Batangas, Occidental, and Oriental Mindoro
(acquired May-August 2009) and through the National Statistics Office (NSO) 2007 Census of Population.
Water supply and sanitation are health problems In relation to climate change adaptation, the National
associated with poverty. As of 2007, 89% of families Objectives for Health in the Philippines (NOH 2005-
in Calabarzon had access to safe water while this was 2010) does not specifically cite climate change as a
only 76% in Mimaropa. During the same year, 16% of cause of health problems, yet major causes of mortality
the Batangas population did not have access to safe currently are recognized as climate sensitive diseases:
drinking water. Six percent of the families in Calabarzon under-nutrition (3.7 million), diarrhea (1.8 million),
and 20% of those in Mimaropa were without sanitary and malaria (1.1 million). Acute or upper respiratory
toilet facilities. The absence of safe water and sanitary tract infection was the leading cause of morbidity in
toilet facilities are associated with diarrhea and other the provinces of Batangas, Occidental, and Oriental
water and food-borne diseases. Mindoro (2007). Pneumonia was the top cause of
54
mortality in Occidental Mindoro while it ranked fourth in Batangas Province

demersal tuna
Oriental Mindoro. 13% 15%
Whether because of extreme weather and high

rainfall, eight out of 10 leading causes of illnesses
are infectious. While most of these happen without
being attributed to climate change, threats to human
health and safety can demonstrate how vulnerability small pelagic
assessment in climate change adaptation can and must 72%
be pursued to avoid major epidemics.

Occidental Mindoro Province
demersal tuna
Economic uses 17% 18%
A large portion of the Verde Island Passage population
is employed near Batangas, where there are eight
industrial parks including Cocochem Agro-Industrial
Park and Tabangao Special Export Processing Zone,
as well as 181 companies that are mostly situated
in Batangas City and other coastal municipalities small pelagic
65%
(Batangas PPDO 2007). Tourism also offers significant
employment opportunities for coastal communities in
Oriental Mindoro Province
resorts close to major dive sites. While commerce and demersal tuna
industry provide big revenues, a substantial segment of 16% 22%
the population depends on agriculture for sustenance.

Fisheries remain a viable income and food source for
many people who live immediately around the passage.
Discussion of the economic profile for the vulnerability small pelagic

assessment is confined only to fisheries, tourism, and 62%
foreshore development. Fig. 43. Fisheries production by major species in Verde

Island Passage.
Fisheries
i. Fish production Our estimates are shown in Tables 25-27 and indicate
One of the important steps in the Vulnerability that Verde Island Passage contributes somewhere
Assessment was to estimate fisheries production between 40-47 thousand MT per year with the province
attributable to the habitats of the Verde Island Passage of Batangas contributing the most. The 6,000 MT
(VIP) (Figure 43). Two sources of data were used for average for Occidental Mindoro is already a weighted
this purpose: a) Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) figure for the four municipalities, as explained, and so
data set which provides for disaggregation of fisheries appear to be lower than BAS statistics. Another 4,000
production on a provincial level, and b) LGU data which MT was estimated to be from the aquaculture sector
are presented in plans or in various published and (bangus, prawns, and seaweeds). As for aquarium
unpublished reports. For the capture sector, all coastal fishing, another activity studied, we assume that
municipalities of Batangas were included, assuming production was not recorded at both LGU and BAS
that their main fishing area is in the Verde Island levels.
Passage.
Small pelagics are the most important species group
As for aquaculture, we only considered brackish water caught in Verde Island Passage with Batangas alone
fishponds and seaweed production and expressly contributing an average of 18,000 MT per year. The
ignored the huge volume of production from Taal
Lake. For Oriental Mindoro, we assumed all 14
coastal municipalities contribute to, and are fishing in, Table 25. Marine fisheries production (thousand MT) from the commercial
and municipal sectors estimated for Verde Island Passage from 2005-2007.
Verde Island Passage. For Occidental Mindoro, we
only considered the four municipalities that include Province 2005 2006 2007
Paluan, Abra de Ilog, Lubang, and Looc and as such, Batangas 20.10 27.80 26.40
provincial level production was divided equally by all Occidental Mindoro 5.93 6.29 6.76
Oriental Mindoro 13.30 13.20 13.90
11 municipalities and multiplied by four in order to get Total 39.33 47.29 47.06
appropriate attribution for these four.
Source: Basic data from BAS 2007.
55
dominant small pelagic species include roundscad, ii. Fishers and fishing units
anchovies, mackerel, and sardines while the tuna We estimated a total of 12,000 municipal and
species caught include skipjack and yellowfin. commercial fishers were utilizing the fisheries resources
Demersal species include slipmouths, threadfin bream, of Verde Island Passage. It was not possible to
and squid. For the three provinces, the distribution of disaggregate the numbers of commercial and municipal
major species caught is similar, and in all cases small fishers to the major species group (tuna, small pelagics,
pelagics dominate the production total. This study and demersals) because both sectors were exploiting
found that tuna ranks second and demersals rank third, the same target species albeit using different gears or
in all provinces. Soliman (manuscript) suggests that size/power of boats. The same observation on targeting
Mabini and Tingloy together contribute to about 2000 similar species is echoed by Soliman in his manuscript
MT per year of tuna per year or more than half of the on Mabini and Tingloy. However, we estimated the
total Batangas production. number of municipal and commercial fishers by
extrapolating from available data. Data from Batangas
Table 26. Aquaculture production (thousand MT) from brackish water
Provincial Agriculturists Office suggested that there
fishponds and seaweed farms estimated for Verde Island Passage from were approximately 550 commercial fishers, and
2005-2007. another 400 deep sea fishers from Lubang municipality.
Province 2005 2006 2007 We therefore used a conservative estimate of 2,000
commercial fishers out of the total 12,000.
Fishponds
Batangas 0.19 0.19 0.16
Occidental Mindoro 0.76 0.78 0.86 We could not make any judgment on whether these
Oriental Mindoro
Total fishponds
2.05
3.00
2.14
3.11
2.22
3.24
numbers include aquarium fishers but we nevertheless
indicated the numbers in Table 28.
Seaweeds
Batangas 0.50 0.70 1.00
Occidental Mindoro 0.51 0.55 0.58 Table 28. Number of commercial and municipal fishers per province
Oriental Mindoro 0.15 0.14 0.12 including aquarium fishers (estimates from various sources).
Total seaweeds 1.16 1.39 1.70
Commercial and
municipal Aquarium
Province fishers fishers Source
Table 27. Estimates for tuna, small pelagics and demersal fish catch
(thousand MT) from the Verde Island Passage from 2005-2007. Batangas 9508 Rosales consultancy
report for CI (2006)
3 year Batangas City 117 MAC Report, Reef Check
Province 2005 2006 2007 average (Bgy Sn Andres, Verde Is.) Report
Tuna Occidental Mindoro 1300 MAC Report, Reef Check

Batangas 3.24 4.42 3.75 3.80 Report
Occidental Mindoro 0.98 1.15 1.34 1.16 Lubang 614 14
Oriental Mindoro 3.06 2.97 2.94 2.99 Looc 258 14
Paluan 420 20
Small Pelagics
Batangas 14.26 19.99 18.81 17.69 Oriental Mindoro 1477 Coastal resource profile
Occidental Mindoro 3.83 4.14 4.40 4.12 of Oriental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro 8.10 8.10 8.74 8.31 Total 12200 (estimate only) 250
Demersals
Batangas 2.60 3.39 3.84 3.28
Occidental Mindoro 1.12 1.00 1.03 1.05
Oriental Mindoro 2.14 2.13 2.22 2.16
56
iii. Aquarium fisheries (use hands or hand-based tools) divers or those who
Aquarium fishing is prevalent in Verde Island (under the do not use any air-supplying device. Dives may last
jurisdiction of Batangas City) Lubang, Looc, and Paluan from 8 am until 2 pm every day until enough fish are
and all of Occidental Mindoro. Studies on the aquarium assembled, i.e., about 500 to 1000 assorted tropical
trade indicate that aquarium fishing is also practiced in fish, after which the catch is brought to Tabangao en
Lian and Calatagan (Figure 44). route to Manila. A comparison of average monthly
incomes of: a) mano mano fisher; b) hookah collector
(including crew), and c) trader indicate that the mano
mano fisher earns an average of P4,600 per month
compared to the hookah collector who earns P5,100.
The trader earns the highest at P7,800 per month
(MAC Report).
Despite the relatively low average monthly incomes,

the income of mano mano fishers may be as high as
P12,000 in some months, and hookah fishers as high
as P19,000, presumably when catches are high and
when the expensive species are caught.
Early analyses of the effects of El Nio on tuna fisheries

in the Philippines point to minimal or no impacts on
overall production. Barut (1999) argues that Philippine
waters approximate that of the Western Tropical Pacific
(WTP) where no warm water intrusion is bound to
occur and even if it does, tuna is known to thermo-
regulate. Further observations of U.S. tuna fleets
Fig. 44. Roving collection routes in the Verde Island Passage support the claim that no change in production is
corridor. expected in the WTP waters. Meanwhile, the Australian
Bluefin Association observed an increase in tuna
A feature article that chronicles the lives and practices production, and an increase in small pelagics, especially
of aquarium fishers of Barangay San Andres in Verde in areas where upwelling occurs.
Island has anecdotal details that indicate vulnerable
marine resources and human communities in the Recent climate change studies depict more of a
passage (Lesaba 2009). In that community, 90% of the downtrend in production and a shift in abundance
population (about 1200 people) is engaged in diving at higher latitudes (Aaheim and Sygna 2000) and
for tropical fish or aquaculture. They go to areas with modeled changes for skipjack (Pratchett et al. 2008).
good reefs and catch species such as yellow wrasse, Increased water temperature is forecast to result in
sexline wrasse, longnose pupper, white fin lion, spot fin changes to the distribution and abundance of tuna
anthias. Occasionally, they catch Majestic which are towards the Central Pacific and away from the Coral
priced at P800 to P1000 apiece. It is more of a way Triangle area. Moreover the impacts of increasing water
of life for the people of Barangay San Andres so they temperature on habitats and incidence of storms and
have to continuously adapt to local regulations and find acidification threaten coastal habitats such as coral
some enterprising sponsors in other municipalities/ reefs. Lehodey (2000) agrees with the shift in spatial
provinces. distribution and decline in abundance of fisheries,
especially in the Pacific, but recognizes that some
Ironically, the practice is banned not only in Verde Island countries may in fact gain from this anticipated change.
but also in the barangay which breeds aquarium fishers
and this is the reason why the practice is exported iv. Small pelagics fisheries
to places such as Lubang and Looc in Occidental The importance of the small pelagic fisheries sector in
Mindoro (Figure 44). Conservation International has Verde Island Passage can be gleaned from production
also commissioned the Marine Aquarium Council statistics. Annual average production of small pelagics
(MAC) and Reefcheck to investigate sustainability (sardines, anchovies, round scads, and mackerels) total
options for roving aquarium fishers in the Verde Island more than 30, 000 MT. In Batangas province, more than
Passage. 70% of catch is small pelagics and in the two Mindoro
provinces, more than 60% of catch is small pelagics.
The collection practice itself is dependent on good Both commercial and municipal fishers exploit the small
weather, especially for those who are mano mano pelagics fisheries.
57
Like tuna, small pelagics are observed to favor deeper, The monthly income from seaweed farming would
cooler waters during periods of drought or El Nio. normally range from P8, 167 to P14, 672 assuming
In such cases, the movement of these fish to deeper that there were no typhoons or disease outbreaks to
waters may assist commercial fishing gears such adversely affect production. These figures are higher
as ringnets and Danish seines. In nearshore waters, than the income from fishing, but as already mentioned,
competition among municipal fishers will intensify the cost of labor is not fully included as seaweed
unless gear adaptation occurs. production is mainly a family enterprise. However, given
that at least three production cycles can be completed
v. Demersals in one year, seaweed farming appears to be highly
Total production of demersal fish (represented by profitable.
threadfin bream, squid and slipmouths) has an annual
average of 6,000 MT for Verde Island Passage. In Seaweeds may be impacted by climate change due
percentage terms, it is similar to tuna which contributes to increasing sea surface temperatures and declining
somewhere between 10 and 15% of total production. water quality levels. Based on the observation by
In value terms, the demersal fishery has the highest Monzales, seaweeds farmed using bottomset methods
value contribution at more than P400 million pesos, on suffered almost unilaterally compared to those using
average, compared to P372 million for small pelagics, a floating system. Likewise, water quality and the
and an even smaller value for tuna at P142 million absence of pollutants provide an ideal environment for
a year. This can be explained by the higher prices seaweeds.
obtained for demersal species.
Data obtained from the Calapan City Coastal
It should be emphasized, however, that these estimates Environmental Profile indicate that brackish water
are based on available data from BAS and that BAS fishponds for bangus cover about one thousand
limits itself to the collection of statistics for the first 30 hectares with annual production of 2,000 MT (2005
most important commercial species. statistics). With a productivity of about 2 tons ha-1, the
estimated income per hectare of bangus fishpond is
Demersal species are closely linked to habitat P200, 000 per hectare.
conditions, and more specifically to coral reefs. Climate
change impacts may result in population declines Tourism
due to loss of settlement habitat and erosion of Tourism in Verde Island Passage has traditionally been
habitat structural complexity, while increased ocean limited to a few areas and activities within the entire
temperature will affect the physiological performance passage. Recreational activities are focused mainly on
and behavior of coral reef fishes and cause shifts in the areas natural attributes, many of which are marine-
recruitment patterns and reproduction. In extreme based. Increasing importance of tourism is the recent
cases, we may see the extinction of small-range trend that climate change may most affect.
species.
There is no comprehensive profile for the tourism
vi. Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds and fishponds) sector that covers all areas within the Verde Island
Production estimates for coastal aquaculture comprise Passage. What is presented in this study are initial data
about 3, 000 tons from brackish water fishponds sets on the tourism profile of the Passage from three
and another 2, 000 MT from seaweeds. While not sources, i.e., a) a start-up passage-wide profile from
significant based on volume of production, seaweeds a workshop covering Lian, Mabini, Tingloy, Calatagan,
provide livelihoods to wives of fishers and other San Teodoro, Bauan, Calapan and Puerto Galeraall
community members. Requiring relatively little capital tourism destination sites; b) information from a prior
and with huge returns, seaweed aquaculture is touted study confined to the Batangas side and with a detailed
as a poverty alleviation tool by government. profile provided for only one municipality, Mabini (where
scuba diving activities are concentrated); and c)
In Calatagan, Batangas, Tambuyog (2005) analyzes the supplemental focused primary research, also in Mabini,
growth of, and issues related to, the seaweed industry. to generate updated information on the economic
Seaweed farming was introduced in Calatagan in 1971 engagement of local communities.
from Zamboanga. At time of writing, there were around
1, 200 seaweed cultivators dispersed over five of the This effort demonstrates how opportunistic data
19 coastal barangays, mainly concentrated in three accessed from agencies and representative sites or
barangays: Barangay Uno, Dos, and Balitoc, but also in case studies can be an appropriate approach when
Barangay Gulod and Barangay Carretunan. The current initiating a vulnerability assessment. The choice of focus
numbers of seaweed farmers could not be confirmed, area for the Verde Island Passage is only intended
but reports indicate that the practice still exists. to show how profiles in general can be used as an
58
initial step for assessing overall vulnerability of the ii. Employment and revenues generated by tourism
tourism sector. The complete profile, and eventually the
vulnerability assessment, will hopefully be undertaken Table 30 provides an indication of the employment
more comprehensively by the local stakeholders in generated by marine tourism. As expected, boat
succeeding workshops. operators are very much in demand. These recreational
boat operators were former fisherfolk, validating the
i. Important tourist activities and destinations statement that tourism complements conservation as
A profile of the marine tourism sector summarized in the sector provides alternative livelihood for locals,
Table 29 shows that diving is the most popular activity providing opportunities to cease resource extractive or
offered by resort owners. Puerto Galera and Mabini are environmentally destructive activities.
the main destinations, although a significant number of
dive spots are located in Tingloy as well. Lian is a major The exact share or contribution of marine tourism to
destination for swimmers and picnic goers, as reflected the total economy of Verde Island Passage could not
by the very large number of establishments for such be ascertained in this project. It was agreed that this
purposes. January to May is the peak season for most has to be established with more data, and it would be
recreational activities, however in some areas, tourism is beneficial to determine how important the sector is in
experienced all year round. providing income and employment to municipalities and
provinces, and to the country as a whole.
Tourist traffic is high in Verde Island Passage, as
reflected by the estimated number of divers, swimmers, Only Mabini was able to provide figures on estimated
and snorkelers. It would be beneficial to establish revenue generated in the diving industry, which appear
a more accurate figure for monitoring purposes. to be highly significant to the local economy (Table 31).
Nevertheless, the initial estimates are high enough Annual resort revenues are estimated to be PhP 88
to classify Verde Island Passage as a major tourist million, and the sector contributes to local employment
destination for coastal and marine recreational activities. valued at PhP 33 million and to local governments
CRM revenues at PhP 1.3 million. This is a minimum
Table 29. Tourism profile in the Verde Island Passage, 2009.

Number of Number of Annual
establishments/ tourists revenues
Activities Location units Season per year in PhP
Wind Surfing Puerto Galera 1 non-peak: rainy season no data

Diving Puerto Galera 50 + all year round, except when there 350
are typhoons
Mabini 34 Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low; Mabini-Tingloy: 4.2M from boat rentals; 88M from
Oct-Dec: medium 20,000-22,000 divers resorts; 1.2M unified divers fees
Bauan 5 Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low; 200/week during peak 3900/day
Oct-Dec: medium season
Tingloy 4 Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low; Mabini-Tingloy: 20,000- 1M unified divers fees
Oct-Dec: medium 22,000 divers
Calatagan 1
San Teodoro 1
Snorkeling Bauan 2 Jan-May: high; Oct-Dec: medium 200/week
Puerto Galera 100,000
Swimming Lian 800 all year round; peak season during 50,000/day during peak
summer season
Boat Trips Calatagan 1
Kayaking Puerto Galera 10 establishments;
100 units
Jetski Calatagan 1
Puerto Galera 10 establishments;
20 units
Calapan
Wakeboarding Calatagan 1 all year round
Skim boarding Puerto Galera
Banana boat Mabini
Puerto Galera 150
Calapan
Source: Tourism Sector Workshop for the VA, Batangas City, 2009.
59
Table 30. Employment generated in the marine tourism sector, Verde Island Table 31. CRM revenues in Mabini, 2003 to 2008.
Passage, 2009.
Number Collected dive
Type of Year of divers fees (PhP)
Activities Employment generated employment
2003 2,225 225,000
Wind Surfing 2004 10,005 1,000,510
2005 16,778 1,677,750
Diving boat rental; instructors; skilled 2006 1,350,000
Puerto Galera: 345 boatmen (with membership skilled 2007 1,130,300
in the association); 125 diving instructors; 2008 1,150,000
equipment rental 5-Year Average 1,299,894
Mabini: boat rental; van rental
Source: Municipal Environment and Natural Resources Office, Mabini, Batangas.
Snorkeling
Swimming boat operator; equipment rental
Boat Trips resort operation; boat rental; balsa managerial also not included. Assuming a minimum amount of
rental; lifesaver rental; other small-scale staff/helper transport expense of PhP 500 and food expenses at
entrepreneurship (sari-sari store, videoke
rental, vending of souvenir items and backyard PhP 500 per person, other tourist expenses could be in
agricultural production) the amount of PhP 12 million for scuba divers alone.
Kayaking boat operation skilled
Jetski
Wakeboarding Puerto Galera: 20 operators; equipment rental skilled In the case of the Batangas portion of the Passage,
Skim boarding Tables 32 and 33 show that the types of tourist
Banana boat kayak fare; boat operator
attractions available confirm marine-based tourism
Source: Tourism Sector Workshop for the VA, Batangas City, 2009. as an important attractionwith Nasugbu, Mabini,
Tinglliy, and Lian being the coastal municipalities with
estimate, considering that real estate and income taxes the most natural attractions. Beach and dive resorts
are not included in these estimates. More importantly, (195 and 36, respectively) were the most common
other tourist expenses such as those for land and water tourist establishments with accommodations, among all
transport, food on-site and other related expenses are tourism establishments, as of 2004.

Table 32. Tourist attractions in the Batangas portion of the Verde Passage MBCC, 2003 to 2004.
Tourist attractions
Municipality/ ancestral
city historical cultural religious festivals natural house Total
Batangas Study Area 10 9 2 5 23 19 68

Balayan 1 1 1 2 5
Bauan 1 1 2
Calaca 1 1 1 3
Calatagan 1 1
Lemery
Lian 3 3
Mabini 5 5
Nasugbu 10 10
San Luis
Taal 6 8 2 2 16 34
Tingloy 1 4 5
Tuy
Source: Provincial Tourism Office, Batangas.
Table 33. Tourist accommodations in the Batangas portion of the Verde Passage, MBCC, 2003 to 2004.
Hotel/restaurant/resort/lodge/
Municipality/ Dive Beach Island Golf Boat pension house/inn/apartelle/ Other
city resort resort resort club club convention-seminar center accommodations Total
Batangas Study Area 36 195 4 3 1 31 4 274

Balayan 9 6 15
Bauan 4 14 5 23
Calaca 30 3 33
Calatagan 7 1 5 13
Lemery 24 3 27
Lian 7 3 10
Mabini 26 65 1 6 98
Nasugbu 1 28 2 2 1 1 1 36
San Luis 3 5 8
Taal 5 2 7
Tingloy 2 1 1 4
Tuy
Source: Provincial Tourism Office, Batangas.
60
Most of the resorts were located in Mabini, followed by

Table 35. Resorts in Mabini Municipality, by Barangay, 2009.
Calaca and Nasugbu with peak occupancy during the
Number of resorts
months of March to May and towards the Christmas Location beach dive both Total
season from November to January.
San Jose 3 3
Ligaya 1 2 2 5
The most common activity is scuba diving, narrowly Solo 3 1 4
concentrated within the municipalities of Mabini and San Teodoro 2 4 6
Bagalangit 5 1 6
Tingloy, and a few more dive sites and resorts in Verde Total 3 14 7 24
Island (Table 34). Within the past two decades, Verde
Source: Field interviews, June 2009.
Passage has consistently been increasing its popularity
as the premiere scuba diving destination in mainland Capacity for visitors is around 1,061 persons at any
Luzon. A significant number of scuba divers and point in time, based on the number of rooms available
marine recreationists have been flocking to the area, for occupancy and the maximum capacity per room
as reflected in the increasing revenues collected from (Table 36). The total does not include visitors who visit
diving entrance fees. during the day but do not spend the night at resorts.
Verde Island is likewise being promoted as another Table 36. Number of rooms and maximum capacity in Mabini, by Barangay,
diving destination in the area. Although no primary data 2009.
is available, estimates have shown that a significant Maximum visitor
number of divers have been visiting dive sites over Location Room capacity capacity
the past few years. These divers, however, are likely San Jose 15 62
to be the same divers going to dive sites in Mabini- Ligaya 59 191
Tingloy and Puerto Galera. There is only one resort Solo 89 334
San Teodoro 85 243
on the island, and most divers are billeted in tourism Bagalangit 88 231
establishments elsewhere. In 2004, between 1,000 and Total 336 1,061
2,000 divers visited Verde Island. Source: Field interviews, June 2009.
Table 34. Estimated number of divers in Verde Island, CY 2004.

All resorts are located in the foreshore area of Mabini,
with establishments ranging from a distance of less
Source of information Estimated total number of divers
than one meter to 20 meters from the shoreline (Table
Revenues from Bgy. San 1,800 six months of a year 37). The big resorts are located in San Teodoro, while
Agapitos divers fees in PhP
Interview with Bgy. Chair of 260 to 1,040 divers a year
the smaller ones are in Ligaya. The other barangays
San Agustin Kanluran have a mix of relatively large and relatively small resorts.
Dive Camp Resort 720 to 1200 divers a month during peak months
The total area occupied by tourist resorts is 26,875
Source: Rosales, R. 2005. Report on the Establishment of User Fees for Scuba Diving in Verde Island. square meters.
iii. Case Study: Updates in the tourism profile of Table 37. Area occupied by tourist resorts, Mabini, June 2009.
Mabini, Batangas Farthest distance Nearest distance Area occupied
Mabini presents itself as a strategic location as far as Location from shore (m) from shore (m) (sq m)
the tourism sector is concerned. Scuba diving is a San Jose 10 <1 1,800
prominent activity in the area. The coral reefs of Mabini Ligaya 5 5 1,900
and Tingloy are favorite diving sites of both foreign and Solo 20 5 3,625
San Teodoro 15 2.5 14,225
local divers who visit from Manila. At present, there are Bagalangit 10 5 5,325
39 dive sites scattered throughout the coastal waters Total 26,875
of these two municipalities. Most sites (i.e., 23) are Source: Field interviews, June 2009.
located in Tingloy, although tourist facilities are mostly
in Mabini. Occupancy averages around 80 nights (1 night=
1 room occupied) per resort per year. The lowest
As mentioned above, most tourist resorts in Verde occupancy registered at 13, while the highest was at
Island Passage are located in this municipality. Out of 247. This translates to an average of PhP3.835 million
a total 24 resorts, 14 cater exclusively to divers, three per year, or PhP88.215 million in total revenues for
are for beach goers and swimmers, and seven cater to all resorts in a year (Table 38). Annual revenues per
both types of tourists (Table 35). Other types of water- resort ranged from a low of PhP104,400 to PhP36.386
based activities offered by resorts include kayaking, million. Sixteen resorts had revenues above PhP one
banana boats, pedal boats, snorkeling, island hopping million.
and swimming. A few offer additional activities such as
game fishing, surfing, water skiing, and jet skiing.
61
divers visited Mabini and Tingloy coral reefs annually,

Table 38. Occupancy and annual revenues, Mabini tourist resorts, June
2009. generating an estimated PhP1.3 million in annual CRM
revenues.
Annual occupancy
Average number of nights per resort 80 Tourism is a sector with steadily increasing importance
Total number of nights for Mabini 1,839
Annual revenues
as a revenue source and employment opportunity in
Average per resort, in PhP 3,835,422 the Verde Island Passage. However, the regular repeat
Total for Mabini, in PhP 88,214,695
divers and marine recreationists who generate incomes
Source: Rosales, R. 2005. Report on the Establishment of User Fees for Scuba Diving in Verde Island. will tend to sustain tourism costs only while the
marine resources are in good condition, which makes
Resorts employ a significant number of locals in their assessments of vulnerability to climate change both
operations. There are around 342 locals working at urgent and important.
24 resorts, with an average of around 14 per resort
(Table 39). Using certain assumptions on salaries paid Foreshore development
by position, total employment was valued at PhP33.15 As with tourism, profiling foreshore development in
million annually, or an average of PhP1.381 million the Verde Island Passage was needed to carry out
per resort. Employment thus represents approximately the vulnerability assessment as there was no available
38% of total annual revenues, or 36% of average data base. Hence, the framework for assessing the
annual revenues per resort. Other employment vulnerability of foreshore areas was applied by some
opportunities related to tourism are not yet reflected of the participants coming from municipalities with
here. Employment in downstream industries may even significant infrastructure development in their respective
be higher, such as provision of food on-site, land and foreshore areas, i.e., Balayan-Batangas, Calatagan-
water transportation to, from and within Mabini, souvenir Batangas, Bauan-Batangas, Nasugbu-Batangas,
making and selling and manufacture, trade and rental of Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Naujan-Mindoro
equipment used in water-based recreational activities. Oriental.
Table 39. Employment status in Mabini resorts, June 2009.

To start from a profile of foreshore areas in the Verde
Resort employment by type Number/amount
Island Passage, participating municipalities in the
workshop group indicated the length of their coastlines
Administrative 113
(presented in Table 40). Nasugbu and Calatagan have
Housekeeping 55
Kitchen 80 relatively long coastlines (60 and 48 km respectively),
Landscaping 28 thus have larger areas for potential foreshore
Garbage disposal 23
Divers/dive masters 40
development than most of the other municipalities.
Others 3
Total employment, 24 resorts 342 Infrastructure
Average employment per resort 14 Table 40. Length of coastline, Verde
Total value of employment, 24 resorts, in PhP 33,150,000 Island Passage municipalities, development in
Average value of employment per resort, in PhP 1,381,250 2009. foreshore areas
Source: Field interviews, June 2009. Location Length has gone unabated
48 km
throughout the years.
Calatagan
Data on taxes paid by resorts to the local government Puerto Galera 10 km The majority of coastal
office of Mabini were not available for this report. Bauan 4 to 5 km municipalities have
Naujan 25 km
However, revenues collected from diving entrance Nasugbu 60 km
roads that extend all the
fees have shown a significant increase since the Balayan 11 km way to their foreshore
time they was implemented in 2003 (Table 8). The Source: Field interviews, June 2009. areas, many of which
entrance fee system was introduced in 2002 to provide are concrete (Table
funds for coastal resources management activities of 41). Table 42 contains the number of municipalities
the LGU. Divers are mandated to pay PhP100 for a that have allowed bridges to be constructed, mostly in
weekend dive in Mabini and Tingloy coral reefs. The municipalities with relatively little coastline.
amount was based on a 2001 study that estimated the
recreational value of scuba diving in the area. There
was a revenue shortfall in 2006, but this was due to
problems in collecting fees from divers, rather than a
steep drop in the number of divers visiting Mabini. The
Municipal Environmental and Natural Resources Office
(MENRO) has since instituted changes intended to
make collection methods more efficient. Using a five-
year average between 2004 to 2008, close to 13,000
62
Table 41. Roads in foreshore areas. Table 45. Other buildings in foreshore areas.
Type/construction Type/construction Area

Location materials used Length Location materials used Number occupied
Calatagan 3 rough, 4 concrete Calatagan seawall 7

Puerto Galera 10 rough to concrete 10 km lighthouse 1
Bauan 4 concrete 3 km Puerto Galera windbreaker 1 800 meters
Naujan rough 1 km reclaimed area 2 100 m
Nasugbu concrete 500 km 50 m
Balayan lighthouse 2
post light
Bauan reclaimed area 2-3 ha
seawall
Table 42. Bridges in foreshore areas. chapel
barangay hall
Type/construction
day care center
Location materials used Number
basketball court
Calatagan 0 baywalk
Puerto Galera 3 concrete, 1 wooden 3 multipurpose hall
Bauan concrete 3 Naujan seawall 1
Naujan concrete, foot bridge 2 stage 2
Nasugbu 0 chapel 1
Balayan 0 school 1
basketball court 2
shorelights
Settlements and other buildings abound in all coastal barangay hall
Nasugbu
areas in Verde Island Passage (as shown in Tables barangay hall
chapel
43, 44, and 45). Meanwhile, some portions have been multipurpose hall
used as public ports and docking areas for fishing seawall
Balayan multipurpose hall 6
boats (Tables 46 and 47). Only Calatagan has allotted barangay hall 2
a portion for the establishment of fishponds (Table PCG detachment 1
48). Accurate figures for most of these indicators baywalk
seawall 1
2 km
could not be determined at the workshop, but there

was a consensus that there were too many man-
made establishments located in foreshore areas. The
Table 46. Ports in foreshore areas.
participants agreed that the very presence of all these
settlements and buildings were exacerbating coastal Type/construction
erosion and pollution of their waters, thus already
threatening resources even without the onset of climate Calatagan PPA 1
Puerto Galera public 3
change. Bauan private, 1 public 8
Naujan
Nasugbu public 2
Table 43. Houses in foreshore areas. Balayan
Type/construction
Calatagan concrete and light materials 11 barangays Table 47. Docking facilities in foreshore areas.
Puerto Galera concrete and light materials 500
Number of Area
Bauan concrete 12 barangays
Location boats docked occupied
Naujan semi-concrete 200
Nasugbu concrete to light 50 Calatagan fishing boats, speedboats (10) 19 barangays
Balayan concrete to light 2500 Puerto Galera repair, dry docking; fishing, passenger
and tourist boats
Bauan fishing and passenger boats 12 barangays
Naujan fishing, passenger 10 barangays
Table 44. Tourism establishments in foreshore areas. Nasugbu fishing 7 barangays
Balayan fishing 11 barangays
Type/construction
Calatagan concrete 12
Puerto Galera concrete, nipa 600 Table 48. Fish ponds in foreshore areas.
Bauan concrete 10, 5 small scale 15 Number of Area
Naujan nipa 3, concrete 2 5 Location fish ponds occupied
Nasugbu concrete 10, 5 small scale 15
Balayan concrete 5, 25 small scale 30 Calatagan 18 250 ha
Puerto Galera 2 abandoned 2 ha
Bauan
Naujan
Nasugbu
Balayan
63
Meanwhile, natural divergence of income levels from this threshold.

Table 49. Natural resources in
foreshore areas. resources could still be Annual per capita poverty thresholds estimated
Location Resources available
found in these foreshore by the National Statistical Coordination Board
areas. Most of the (NSCB) for Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and
Calatagan mangroves
beach
participants proudly Oriental Mindoro were P16,615, P12,564, and
Puerto Galera mangroves claimed the existence P14,330, respectively, with income estimates for
white sandy beaches of mangrove forests the municipal and commercial sectors summarized
beautiful bay
Bauan beaches and sandy beaches, in Table 50.
Naujan mangroves the latter being used
sandy beach
delta
often for local tourism Table 50. Average per capita incomes of commercial and municipal
hot springs and recreation. Table fishers, by province, based on fisheries production value, 2005-2007.
Nasugbu coves 49 contains a summary Average income of Average income of
mangroves
beaches of natural resources commercial fishers municipal fishers
Balayan mangroves found in these coastal Province (in thousand PhP) (in thousand PhP)
beaches
delta
municipalities, although Batangas 43.975 12.264
details on area covered Occidental Mindoro 21.651 5.683
Oriental Mindoro 26.164 6.613
and species present could not be provided at the
workshop proper.
Sectoral importance: relative to the contribution
The tables that detail the data to profile foreshore to production, food security, and employment
structures and facilities is very preliminary but has generation, the sector is highly vulnerable when
been included in the exercise (through inter-agency contribution to either of these parameters is high.
workshops) to show that the kinds of data suggested Socio-cultural attachment to activity: when
are neither well reported nor monitored, and will activity is not only economic but social as well;
therefore require creative ways to generate this difficulty in shifting to an alternative is greater.
information. Lack of management mechanisms limits Diversity of livelihood option: based on
the ability to assess vulnerability. However, local information culled from reports, this measured
government units can be encouraged to carry out inter- the extent to which the individual (and his/
agency coordination in baselines and monitoring, which her household) relied solely on fishing activity.
would allow a full vulnerability assessment in the future. If alternative livelihood options are meager,
vulnerability is higher.
Dependency levels on coastal habitats: not
Vulnerability assessment of human quantitatively measured in this study, but an
well-being opportunity to employ an in-depth analysis exists
given data on species caught; where fishing activity
Climate change impacts on the fisheries occurs (in or near coastal habitats); and type of
sector in the Verde Island Passage and the gear used.
sectors responses
Climate change disrupts fisherfolks livelihood when fish Each parameter was given a rating of Low, Medium,
breeding and spawning seasons and habitats, fish runs or High based on the best available information, and
and migration paths are altered. Starting with a profile converted numerically thereafter (1=low; 2=medium,
of the fisheries sector, a two-step process was used to and 3=high). For example, in the case of income
estimate the vulnerability of fishing activities to climate vulnerability, the rating was HIGH if the estimated or
change. perceived income was lower than the poverty threshold.
Any intermediate scores such as Low to Medium or
The first step was to derive a Socio-Economic Medium to High were scored as a half point score,
Vulnerability Index (SEVI) given a listing of parameters: such that Low to Medium was given a score of 1.5, for
i) incomes levels; ii) sectoral importance; iii) socio- example.
cultural attachment to activity; iv) diversity of livelihood
options; and, v) dependency of activity on coastal A simple average was then computed to derive a
habitat. Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI). The
summary indices provide a general indication of
Income levels: Incomes are negatively affected vulnerabilities for the entire Verde Island Passage based
by declining production levels, declining prices, on the parameters selected (Table 51).
and increased operational costs. Poverty threshold
levels were used as benchmarks and income
vulnerability was a measure of the possible
64
Table 51. Summary socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) matrix for fisheries in the Verde Island Passage.
Social/cultural Diversity of Dependency

Income Sectoral attachment livelihood levels on coastal
Type of fishing levels importance to activity option habitats SEVI
Aquarium fishers medium (2) low (1) high (3) high (3) high (3) medium to high (2.4)
Municipal fishing: demersals, coral reef fish high (3) high (3) low to medium (1.5) low to medium (1.5) high (3) medium to high (2.4)
Commercial fishing: demersals, coral reef fish low to medium (1.5) high (3) low to medium (1.5) low to medium (1.5) high (3) medium to high (2.1)
Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds) low to medium (1.5) high (3) medium to high (2.5) medium to high (2.5) medium to high (2.5) medium to high (2.4)
Coastal aquaculture (ponds) low (1) medium to high (2.5) low (1) low (1) high (3) low (1.7)
Small pelagics fishing, municipal high (3) high (3) low (1) low (1) medium to high medium (2.1)
Small pelagics fishing, commercial low (1) high (3) low (1) low (1) medium to high low (1.7)
Tuna fisheries (municipal) high (3) high (3) low (1) low (1) medium to high medium (2.1)
Tuna fisheries (commercial) low (1) high (3) low (1) low (1) medium to high low (1.7)
From a purely socio-economic perspective, therefore, Overall vulnerability assessment

the most vulnerable fishing activities are aquarium Following the suggested methodology, the vulnerability
fishing, municipal fishing for demersals and coral reef of the fisheries sector was then assessed.
fish, and coastal aquaculture. Aquarium fishing is
highly dependent on coastal habitats (coral reefs), is i. Aquarium fishing: HIGHLY VULNERABLE
a community activity, and is practiced in communities Aquarium fishing was found to be HIGHLY
with few livelihood options. These factors influenced the VULNERABLE to climate change because income
vulnerability ratings, despite the relatively high incomes vulnerability ranged from Medium to High, there
(low income vulnerability) and minimal contribution to was high dependence of coral reef conditions and
the economy. Municipal fishing for demersals and coral biodiversity of fish, which was in turn related to
reef fish also rated high due to the low incomes of biophysical processes likely affected by increasing sea
fishers (therefore, High vulnerability), high importance surface temperature. Income levels were also expected
in terms of employment and food security, and high to be negatively impacted by increasing operational
dependency on resource. costs (e.g., travel to farther distances and inability to
stay in the water for long hours especially during bad
The second step was to arrive at the assessed impact weather). Social attachment to activity was HIGH
of climate change on coastal habitats associated especially in the case of Barangay San Andres. It was
with particular kinds of fishing activities, to be used also observed that in Barangays in Looc and Lubang
as a biophysical overlay. This was achieved through where this is practiced, the communities are highly
an assessment by experts on the status of fisheries integrated. With respect to its sectoral importance,
based on accessed data, consultations and workshops. aquarium fishing has low vulnerability due to the small
Scoring for the biophysical overlay followed the number of fishers involved and minimal impact on food
procedure to get the SEVI. The result was then security.
averaged out with the SEVI to arrive at a Climate
Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) as in Table 52. Assuming the most conservative income for the mano
mano fisher, i.e., P4,600 per month, and further
assuming that a household consists of five individuals
Table 52. Summary climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) matrix for
fisheries in the Verde Island Passage. including the fisher himself, the annual per capita
income was estimated at P11,040, lower than the
Climate change
impact to associated poverty threshold for all three provinces. If the incomes
Type of fishing coastal habitat SEVI CCVI used were on the higher side, i.e., P12,000, the poverty
Aquarium fishers 3.0 2.4 2.7 threshold levels are attained for all provinces. For this
Municipal fishing: demersals, coral reef fish 3.0 2.4 2.7 paper, we assumed the more optimistic approach
Commercial fishing: demersals, coral reef fish 3.0 2.1 2.6
Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds) 3.0 2.4 2.7
where, the vulnerability with respect to income was
Coastal aquaculture (ponds) 2.5 1.7 2.1 scored as MEDIUM, i.e., an average of the conservative
Small pelagics fishing, municipal 2.5 2.1 2.3 estimate and the high-end estimate.
Small pelagics fishing, commercial 2.5 1.7 2.1
Tuna fisheries (municipal) 2.5 2.1 2.3
Tuna fisheries (commercial) 2.5 1.7 2.1 There was also HIGH vulnerability with respect to
diversity of livelihood options due mainly to the relative
isolation of the fishing communities (especially during
typhoon months), and lack of opportunities in the
trade and service sectors. This was more pronounced
in the case of Verde Island and Looc, where farming
opportunities are not as numerous as in Lubang.
65
ii. Tuna fisheries: VULNERABLE iii. Small pelagics: VULNERABLE

At least 15% of fisheries production in all three Due to its contribution to fisheries production in the
provinces consisted of tuna (skipjack, yellowfin, and big Verde Island Passage and food security, the small
eye). For the last three years from 2005 to 2007, the pelagics fishery is highly vulnerable to climate change
three provinces collectively caught, on average, 6,000 impacts. Incomes of municipal fishers may be taken as
MT a year valued at P400 million pesos,. Data from similar to that of tuna fisheries; thus, municipal fishers
BAS indicated that Batangas province earns about are vulnerable due to lower incomes.
P180 million per year, consistent with the findings of
Soliman (unpublished manuscript) that together, Mabini Small pelagic fish are known to react to changes in
and Tingloy fisheries have a value of P172 million temperature and this may well be happening in Verde
(including demersals). Island Passage where temperatures have increased,
on average, by about 4C. As in tuna fisheries, we
Since both municipal and commercial sectors exploit assume that this fishery does not constitute a social
the tuna fisheries, the disaggregation of volume activity and that other forms of livelihood are gaining
and value was done by determining the percentage importance in the aggregation of household income. In
contribution of the two sectors to total production. In Bauan, Batangas, for example, focus group discussion
Verde Island Passage, the ratio of tuna catch is 1:4 with participants reported that currently only 50% of the
the municipal sector contributing 25% of production. community are fishers as opposed to 80-90% fifty
In terms of value, the municipal sector earns about P32 years ago. This indicates the broadening of income
million compared to P95 million for the commercial sources in the province, which may not yet be true for
sector. the Mindoro provinces. As with tuna, the SEVI of small
pelagics indicates a low socio-economic vulnerability;
Municipal tuna fisheries were found to be more however, when coupled with climate change impacts,
vulnerable to climate change than commercial fisheries the CCVI shows a higher index.
(Table 6). Income from municipal fishers contributed
to less than half of the poverty threshold especially iv. Demersals: VULNERABLE
in Mindoroeven assuming that municipal fishing Production trends in the demersal fishery mirror the
exploited tuna, small pelagics and demersal fisheries. pattern of exploitation. Demersal fisheries tend to be
overexploited first and this is the case for the Verde
Shifting of tuna aggregations to deeper waters will Island Passage fisheries. Production levels are below
not bode well for the municipal sector and incomes 10,000 MT per year and the threat posed by climate
are bound to decline even further as operational costs change is high because of the high dependence
increase. The commercial sector will be better able to of demersal species on coral reef and soft bottom
accommodate these changes in tuna behavior. Being a communities.
migratory species, tuna may not be directly influenced
by habitat conditions; however, impacts on the food As in the case of small pelagics, municipal fishers are
chain due to changing biophysical conditions, and more vulnerable than commercial fishers due to already
generally, on food availability for tuna poses a larger low incomes but also due to their inability to adapt by
potential issue. changing gear or by mechanization. The assumptions
pertaining to social activity and diversity of options are
Tuna is an important food fish and substantial numbers the same as for small pelagics and tuna.
of people depend on tuna for livelihood; thus, it was
found to be highly vulnerable in terms of its contribution v. Seaweeds: VULNERABLE
to the economic sector. There was a lack of data to Seaweeds resulted in a Medium to HIGH SEVI due
suggest that tuna fishing approximates a social activity to its economic importance, its role as an alternative
or that tuna fishers are not engaged in other forms of livelihood provider for women, and its dependence
livelihood but we assumed that vulnerability was low on water quality conditions. When climate change
due to general engagement of fishers in other economic impacts are overlain on the socio economic vulnerability
activities such as trade, services, and other seasonal for seaweeds, the CCVI shows an increase due to
employment (especially in Batangas province). the dependency of seaweed culture on water quality
conditions and observations that an increase in sea
The SEVI for tuna was on the low side; however, when surface temperature may have negative impacts on
the climate change impacts were considered, the CCVI bottom farming of seaweeds.
showed that tuna are mildly vulnerable due to potential
changes in tuna behavior. vi. Fishponds: LOW VULNERABILITY
Fishponds are more vulnerable to coastal inundation
and decrease in water especially during dry seasons;
66
thus, the CCVI was low. Its SEVI is also on the low side hazards that pertain to the biophysical climate change
due to the relatively low income vulnerability associated indicators are storm frequency and/or intensity, increase
with aquaculture and the availability of livelihood options in sea surface temperature causing coral bleaching,
for owners and employees of fishpond establishments. or accelerated sea level rise. Measures of sensitivity,
meanwhile, are related to the type and status of reefs
Assessment of adaptive capacity and numbers of tourists as reef-dependent activities
Integrated Coastal Management, or Coastal Resource attract the most tourists.
Management, and conservation efforts have been
started in the Verde Island Passage. An MPA Network
ure of components
covering nine LGUs has been formed in partnership meas
DEGREE OF
with LGU, PGENRO, WWF and other sectors/groups. PROTECTION OF
THE REEF
CI, WWF-Philippines, and the provincial government LOCATION PERCENT OF

HEALTHY REEF
nts of dimensi
of Batangas signed a tri-partite memorandum pone ons
com SPECIES
PRESENT
of agreement that formalized the mechanics of REEF REEF DIVERSITY
cooperation among the organizations. SEA LEVEL
nsio
ns of vulnera
bii
me
RISE EXTENSION
ty
di
Collaborative efforts among the three signatories INCREASE IN

SEA
OCEAN
CONDITIONS
U
RE
SE
N
were enhanced through existing mechanisms (e.g.,
SI
OS
TEMPERATURE
REEF
TIV
EXP
PREFERENCES
Strategic Environmental Management Plan and
ITY
VULNERABILITY
Batangas Integrated Environmental Council). Verde INTENSITY
TOURISTS
TYPE OF
TOURIST
Island Passage marine conservation program is STORMS
DENSITY OF
integrated in the SEMP. The eight municipalities and FREQUENCY
A DA P TIV E TOURISTS
CA PA C IT Y
one city included in the MPA network are Bauan, Lobo,
Calatagan, Balayan, Tingloy, Nasugbu, San Juan, MANAGERIAL INSTITUTIONAL
SUPPORT
Mabini and Batangas City. However, the stakeholders EDUCATION

TECHNOLOGICAL
CONSERVATION
PROJECTS
in Calatagan do not have an integrated coastal DIVERSIFICATION

OF ACTIVITIES
PROTECTION
(MARINE RESERVE)
management policy for their municipality. MANAGEMENT
VISITORS NUMBERS
RESEARCH &
MONITORING
(CARRYING ARTIFICIAL PROJECTS
CAPACITY) REEF
The MPA Network formation in the Verde Island
Passage has exerted peer pressure on other
municipalities to conserve their marine resources. An Fig. 45. Framework that was used to guide the vulnerability
enforcement strategy has been institutionalized at the assessment.
provincial and nine coastal areas in the formation of
the Bantay Dagat Baywatch Network. This network For the assessment of the indicators that measure the
is composed of eight municipalities and one city. different vulnerability components, a scoring system
There are 280 members and about 75% are active. can be developed in collaboration with stakeholders,
Bantay Dagat network meets on a monthly basis. building on existing knowledge and data
Encroachment of commercial fishers in municipal
waters reduced since the MPA and Bantay Dagat With data from the created profile, the vulnerability
network was formed. In 2008, 11 cases filed in court assessment with inter-agency workshop participants
that reached a resolution. concluded that the tourism industry is threatened by
climate change as it can potentially destroy tourist-
All 25 MFARMCs are organized and there are 4 attracting natural resources. Coastal municipalities
IFARMCs located in Balayan Bay, Batangas Bay, Taal of Batangas, Lubang, and Puerto Galera will lose
Lake, and Tayabas Bay. revenues and employment opportunities in such an
event. Reef-dependent scuba diving and snorkeling are
Climate change impacts on the tourism the activities that will be most greatly affected by the
sector in the Verde Island Passage and the first two scenarios. In these cases, some recreational
sector's responses areas of the Verde Island Passage will be more
Natural coastal and marine resources for tourism vulnerable than others, i.e., scuba diving and snorkeling
activities that could potentially be effected include locations will be more negatively affected. In particular,
foreshore areas dedicated to tourism, coral reefs used the local economies of Mabini, Tingloy, Bauan, and
for scuba diving and snorkeling, as well as hotels and Puerto Galera may suffer as climate change impacts
lodging facilities. The framework for the vulnerability increase.
assessment is summarized in Figure 45, showing how
biophysical impacts are related to socio-economic On the other hand, the third scenario is projected to
impacts in the tourism sector. As measures of exposure, affect all tourism activities as tourists will obviously
67
adjust their schedules and destination choices in Reef-dependent tourism activities are clearly the
places that have less potential of being hit by storms most vulnerable, in contrast with those that are not
and extreme weather events. Should the third scenario dependent of reef condition.
occur, local income and employment will be negatively
affected in all tourism sites. Following is a summary Assessment of adaptive capacity
of potential responses indicated by the workshop Methodology for the tourism sector was extended to the
participants. assessment of adaptive capacity. Participants ranked
the capacities of the municipal and provincial levels of
Scenario A: increase in sea surface temperature (SST) government, both of which have distinct mandates to
Increase in sea surface temperature causes coral manage the tourism sector of Verde Island Passage.
bleaching, making the activity less attractive to divers Indicators were determined based on the participants
and snorkelers knowledge of management requirements to fulfill their
No effect on the other tourism activities mandates.
Scenario B: accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) The Information, Education and Communication
Causes poor turbidity, reduced photosynthesis and (IEC ) indicator refers to production and distribution
chlorophyll production/coral drowning of information materials as well as workshops and
Less interest/appreciation for snorkelers general assemblies for information dissemination
Divers will have to go deeper underwater to see the purposes. Policies refer to local ordinances, MOUs and
corals; will have to exert more effort and additional cost; environmental management plans formulated at the
will involve higher risk for divers local level. Management bodies indicate the number
Positive impact: beneficial to some corals; will be of councils and organizations formed in addressing
undisturbed environmental issues related to the tourism sector. LGU
No effect on the other tourism activities and NGO partnerships reflect the number of active
government agencies, private foundations and NGOs
Scenario C: increase in frequency and intensity of in environment-related programs, while stakeholder
typhoons (STORMINESS) partnerships include peoples organizations and
Tourism facilities are damaged; additional construction local interest groups formed for the same purpose.
costs for renovation and repair Community involvement refers to environmental projects
Increase in unemployment and underemployment affecting tourism that involve community participation,
Decreased livelihood opportunities e.g., giant clam seeding, MPA establishment, mangrove
Less revenue collection reforestation, abalone culture and coastal clean-ups.
Destruction of the natural and man-made resources
No tourism activities in the presence of typhoons Finally the last indicator is not specifically a
management indicator; however it refers to the
Overall vulnerability assessment perceived resiliency and adaptive capacity of natural
Based on the above scenarios and the potential resources and ecosystems to climate change, based
impacts on the tourism sector, the participants ranked on their reported status and health. Using the rating
the impacts and assigned scores to determine the scheme of 1=Low (High), 2=Medium, 3=High (Low)
overall vulnerability due to climate change. For each vulnerability (capacity), Table 54 contains the perceived
climate projection with high likelihood of occurrence, adaptive capacity of VIP in responding to climate
vulnerability was assessed in terms of exposure and change impacts in the tourism sector.
sensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High). Table 53
provides a summary of the scores.
Table 54. Adaptive capacity assessment in the tourism sector of the Verde
Island Passage, 2009.
Table 53. Vulnerability assessment in the tourism sector, Verde Island Management Status Score
Passage, 2009. indicator presence absence inadequate municipal provincial
Activity/climate Sea surface Accelerated sea IEC x 2 2

change impact temperature level rise Storminess Policies x 2 2
Management body x 2 2
Wind Surfing 1 1 3 LGU-NGO
Diving 3 3 3 partnerships x 1 1
Snorkeling 3 3 3 Stakeholder
Swimming 1 2 3 partnerships/POs x 2 2
Boat Trips 1 1 3 Community
Kayaking 1 1 3 involvement x 3 2
Jetski 1 1 3 Natural resources x 2 2
Wakeboarding 1 1 3
Skim boarding 1 1 3
Banana boat 1 1 3
68
Climate change impacts on the foreshore Table 55. Climate change impacts on foreshore areas in the Verde Island
areas in Verde Island Passage and the Passage.
sector's responses Climate change Impacts on Impacts on
Similar to the effects of climate change on the tourism projection natural resources man-made structures
sector, three climate change scenarios were discussed Increase in none
warming can cause coral
as potentially affecting foreshore areas, namely: sea surface bleaching and drowning
increase in sea surface temperature, accelerated temperature
sea level rise, and increased frequency and intensity Accelerated sea coastal erosion infrastructure damage;
of typhoons (storminess). Participants believed that level rise (ASLR) infrastructure and natural
increase in sea surface temperature would not have any resources are highly exposed;
materials and design of buildings
impact on man-made structures located in foreshore and houses are not adapted to
areas. Potentially heavy damages may arise when sea level rise;
sea walls: barriers to sea level
accelerated sea level rise and storminess occur. Many rise;
of these structures, particularly settlements and tourism foreshore area highly sensitive
facilities, are made of light materials that can easily to ASLR, because of historical
trends of foreshore development
be washed out or destroyed during strong storms.
Accelerated sea level rise and storminess may cause Increased storm coastal erosion infrastructure damage
severe damage to natural resources as well, particularly frequency and
intensity
infrastructure and natural
resources are highly exposed
sandy beaches. These climate change scenarios could materials and design of buildings
intensify coastal erosion, which is already happening and houses are not adapted to
storm surges
due to the unabated infrastructure development in sea walls: exacerbate coastal
foreshore areas. Some municipalities have put up erosion
sea walls to prevent further damage to their coastline foreshore area highly sensitive
to storm surges, because of
infrastructure facilities. Although these structures may historical trends of foreshore
prevent damages in the short-run, participants agreed development
deterioration of sea walls: debris
that they could exacerbate coastal erosion, further get washed out, causing pollution
damaging foreshore areas in the long-run. Table 55 transports seasonal waste from
summarizes the workshop discussions on potential one coastal area to another;
causes solid waste pollution on
impacts of climate change on foreshore areas of the foreshore areas
Verde Island Passage.
Overall vulnerability assessment Table 56. Vulnerability assessment in foreshore areas of the Verde Island
Based on the above scenarios and the potential Passage, 2009.
impacts on foreshore areas, the participants ranked Climate Coastal asset
the impacts and assigned scores to determine the change impact exposed Exposure Sensitivity
overall vulnerability due to climate change. For each Sea surface temperature none 0 0
climate projection with high likelihood of occurrence, Accelerated sea level rise infrastructure 3 3
mangroves 1 1
vulnerability was assessed in terms of exposure and beaches/coves 3 3
sensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High). Table 56 delta 3 3
provides a summary of the scores. hot springs 3 2
Storminess infrastructure 3 3
mangroves 2 1
In terms of adaptive capacity, participants ranked the beaches/coves 3 3
capacities of the municipal, provincial and national delta

hot springs
3
2
3
3
levels of government in managing foreshore areas of
Verde Island Passage as highly vulnerable. Indicators
were determined based on the participants knowledge which may be located within foreshore areas of coastal
of management requirements to fulfill their mandates. municipalities.
It was noted that municipal and provincial LGUs were
not authorized to manage their foreshore areas, as this Clearly, there is a lot of confusion and discord that
responsibility still rests with the national government. can be created at the local level. As one participant
Granting of Foreshore Lease Agreements is still within of the workshop noted in plenary, management of
the mandate of the Department of Environment and both municipal lands and municipal waters has been
Natural Resources. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Fisheries devolved to LGUs, but foreshore area management is
and Aquatic Reforms, which in turn is under the still within the mandate of national government. In effect,
Department of Agriculture, is the agency authorized municipal and provincial LGUs consider themselves as
to approve and issue Fishpond Lease Agreements, having a very low adaptive capacity to climate change,
simply because they do not have the mandate to carry
69
out adaptation and mitigation plans in foreshore areas. USAIDs Guidebook is a very useful reference in
Using the rating scheme of 1=Low (High), 2=Medium, setting the scope of the assessment. The matrix below
3=High (Low) vulnerability (capacity), Table 57 contains provides a summary of the threats affecting mariculture
the perceived adaptive capacity of Verde Island and affected freshwater resources as a source of
Passage in responding to climate change impacts in income and food, human settlements, health, and
foreshore areas. conflict situations.
Table 57. Adaptive capacity assessment in foreshore areas of the Verde

Following the guidebook, absent or incomplete
Island Passage, 2009. baselines for the vulnerability assessment were
Capacity Municipal Provincial National
first addressed in the project through appropriately
requirements level level level prioritized agency data sources such as physical
IEC 3 3 3
framework and development plans, socio-economic
Policy formulation and implementation 3 3 2 profiles, health reports, disaster records and
Management bodies 3 3 3 infrastructure plans. These were accessed but re-read
LGU-NGO partnerships 3 3 3
Community involvement 3 3 3 with a climate-sensitive perspective. Reconstructive
Disaster preparedness 3 3 3 data, based on experiences and observations, was
separately done through interviews with technical staff
with coastal residents. Multi-agency workshops for
Climate change impacts on the peoples systematic consolidation and validation followed (Table
health and safety in Verde Island Passage 58).
and the sectors responses
Water- and vector-borne diseases, destruction of Vulnerability assessment of health and safety
infrastructure in human settlements, loss of incomes, The climate change impacts from more frequent strong
and even loss of lives, because of extreme weather typhoons and the consequent intensified flooding, will
events (sea surface temperature and storminess), potentially have large effects on livelihood and quality
flooding, and accelerated sea level rise, command large of life in settlements. (Note: vulnerability assessment of
scale institutional response. Vulnerability assessment to effects on livelihood is covered in the earlier sections.)
aid adaptation is indeed expedient now. Sea level rise is not yet seen by many people as a result
of global warming/climate change. Unfortunately, effects
Table 58. Climate change threats to coastal communities.
Sector Climate change impacts Climate change threats
Mariculture sea surface temperature increases; unpredictable changes in culture productivity;

environmental changes e.g., salinity, precipitation levels, increase stress and vulnerability to pathogens and parasites in cultured organisms;
seasonality; overall decline in ocean productivity reduces supplies of wild fish used for fish meal for
changes in weather patterns and extreme weather events mariculture;
reduce productivity and disrupted operations (loss of infrastructure and stock) due to extreme
weather events;
loss of income and investments
Freshwater encroachment of saltwater into the water table, estuaries saltwater intrusion of freshwater sources;
resources and coastal rivers; increased saltwater intrusion, exacerbating water supply problems;
waves and storm surges reaching further inland; contamination of water supply sources during flooding and coastal inundation;
decreased precipitation lack of potable water during extreme weather events
Human settlements increasing coastal inundation; more inland relocation;

sea level rise raising water levels during storm surge; houses, buildings and infrastructure damage from increasing coastal storm intensity and flood
erosion, and extreme weather events exposure;
reduced clearance under bridges;
Human health changing weather patterns; overtopping of coastal defense structures;
extremely hot periods degradation of natural coastal defense structures
Conflict coastal land loss due to sea level rise injuries, illness, and loss of lives due to extreme weather events;
malnutrition, water and food shortages during extreme events;
heat stress from extremely hot periods;
increased spread of vector-borne disease (dengue fever and malaria), waterborne diseases
(diarrhea) and toxic algae (ciguatera)
coastal land and resource scarcity or loss, and human migration;

resource and water use conflicts due to scarcity;
population migration to urban areas as ocean productivity and food availability declines and
fishers are displaced;
disruption of peace and order situation
Source: Adapted from the USAID Guidebook for Development Planners: Adapting to Coastal Climate Change.
70
on health and food safety are the least recognized. or town center, as basis of Flood-prone Index A with
Hence, with the focus on human health and safety scores from 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability.
in the coastal environment, vulnerability indicators
recommended include the following: Flood-prone Index A was customized to rank
municipalities where they are most vulnerable to
flood-prone area; flooding under Category 1 and 2 only (rains with
climate change effects on health and diseases that subsequent rise in sea water level or near seas, dikes
are water-, vector-, rodent- and food-borne as well other waterways in coastal areas). The following
as extreme temperature-related; and, among the province-wide Batangas side of the Verde
climate change-ready physical infrastructure for Passage had the greatest number of communities and
disaster and risk management and ecosystem- population exposed to floods aggravated by water level
based water supply system (distribution), drainage rise: Nasugbu (37 out of 42 barangays) and Calatagan
and sanitation. (20 out of 25 barangays) with a vulnerability rating of
3 (high), followed by Lian (10 of 19), Bauan (16 out of
i. Flood-prone area: VULNERABLE 40) and Lemery (18 out of 46 barangays) with a rating
A Flood-prone Index with scores from 1=Low, of 2 (medium).
2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability is a suggested tool.
As a case study, flood prone areas in all municipalities Focusing on only the coastal areas in these
on the Batangas side of the Verde Island Passage that municipalities to emphasize marine adaptation to
host hundreds of thousands of people are categorized climate change, an adjusted Flood-prone Index B (only
into the following: for the scaled down area) gives Calatagan and Tingloy
Category 1: Almost flooded as a result of heavy (for its size) a score of 3 (Table 60). They are highly
rains aggravated by high tide or rise in water level or vulnerable to flooding where it is most likely to happen
nearby seas, lakes, rivers, etc. and where they have the greatest number of coastal
Category 2: Flooded only after several days of barangays, although Calatagan, Nasugbu, Lemery and
heavy and continuous rains with subsequent rise in San Juan have the largest exposed population.
water level or lakes, seas, dikes, rivers and canals
Category 3: Flooded only after several days of Testing the use of the Flood-prone Index in the rest of
exceptionally heavy or continuous rains. Verde Island Passage provinces would be beneficial to
Category 4: Never experienced flood but present expand the vulnerability assessment.
environmental condition in the area warrant LGUs
concern on flood, flash flood, land slides and mud
slides.
Category 5: Residential areas, national and
provincial road networks prone to landslide and
mudslides.
This scale indicates vulnerability ranges from highest

(Category 1) to lowest (Category 4 and 5). Table
59 summarizes the vulnerable population across all
barangays, whether located in the interior sections
Table 59. Vulnerable population in selected flood-prone municipalities, Batangas-wide.
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 Total

Municipality barangays pop. barangays pop. barangays pop. barangays pop. barangays pop. population
Lemery 12 16,559 6 7,041 4 5,134 none none 4 4,202 32,936

Lian 5 2,651 5 1,925 1 288 1 288 1 296 5,448
Balayan 13 18,501 3 23,032 8 21,463 4 6,218 none none 69,214
Calatagan 5 10,206 15 25,819 none none 1 1,581 none none 37,606
Nasugbu 11 28,876 26 53,013 26 53,013 2 3,168 none none 85,057
Bauan 3 5,032 13 21,530 none none 1 491 none none 27,053
Lobo none none 5 5,351 3 5,284 11 9,279 5 7,332 27,246
Tingloy 2 5,400 2 400 2 1,200 none none 1 1000 8,000
Mabini none none 2 2,608 none none 2 3,374 none none 5,982
San Juan none none 8 15,557 8 14,707 18 27,719 none none 57,983
Total 51 87,225 85 156,276 26 48,076 40 52,118 11 12,830 35,525
Note: number of flood-prone barangays across all categories is not cumulative.
Source: Provincial Disaster Coordinating Office, Batangas, 2009.
71
Table 60. Flood-prone index, coastal municipalities in Batangas.
Total Number of Population Flood- Barangay Population Flood-

number of barangays vulnerable to prone along along prone
Municipality barangays Cat. 1, 2 Percentage flooding index-A VIP Percentage VIP index-B
Balayan 48 16 33 41,533 1 11 22.91 20,873 1

Bauan 40 16 40 26,562 2 10 25.00 24,348 1
Calatagan 25 20 80 36,025 3 16 64.00 34,433 2-3
Lemery 46 18 39 23,600 2 13 28.26 27,149 1
Lian 19 10 52 4,576 2-3 6 31.58 19,114 1
Lobo 26 5 19 5,351 1 10 38.46 18,589 2
Mabini 34 2 6 2,608 1 13 38.24 20,616 2
Nasugbu 42 37 88 81,889 3 7 16.67 29,488 1
San Juan 42 8 19 15,557 1 15 35.71 26,537 2
Tingloy 15 4 26 5,800 1 15 100.00 18,548 3
Total population
along the VIP 579 152 26.25 358,518
ii. Climate change-related diseases and effects on Natural disasters cause injuries, illness, loss of life.
health: VA for integration in the institutional framework Heat stress is experienced from extremely hot
With exposure to flooding because of storminess and periods.
accelerated sea level rise or because of increased Health and food service delivery is disrupted due
sea surface temperature, the presence or absence, to damage to infrastructures, roads and bridges.
magnitude and trending of the following direct effects Malnutrition and food shortages during extreme
on health are aspects that require inclusion in the events are experienced.
climate change adaptation framework, policies, and There is increased emotional and psychological
plans for the sector: stress due to calamities and loss of livelihood.
diseases that are temperature-related, water and As an added dimension, the assessment can be carried
food-borne, vector- and rodent-borne; out according to geographic scope, population and
effects of food and water shortages; temporal scale when dealing with infection and reduced
extreme temperature-related health effects; and, access to basic services. Systematic documentation
mental, nutritional, infectious health effects. and monitoring of health and safety aspects, even if
qualitatively, will guide responses in adaptation. These
Following the example of the Flood-prone Index, the are the next steps to be pursued to complete the full
impacts on health and safety can also be used with vulnerability assessment.
scores of 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability to
mainstream adaptation. Below are health implications iii. Climate change-ready physical infrastructure for
of climate change that the vulnerability assessment can disaster and risk management and ecosystem-based
cover. (Regular health services and facilities do not water supply system (distribution), drainage and
suffice since those are commonly confined to maternal sanitation
and child health care, control of diarrheal diseases, Safety issues generated by storminess and accelerated
micronutrient supplementation, family planning, TB sea level rise as well as by increased sea surface
control program and cardiovascular disease.) temperature apply not only to the physical infrastructure
for foreshore development but for coastal communities
Even if not yet experienced, sea level rise can lead in general. Vulnerability to the destruction of physical
to salt water intrusion in and pollution of the water infrastructure cited in Table 32 indicates direct effects
supply. Pollution is aggravated by dumping of on quality of life and can result in injuries, illness, loss of
industrial and domestic waste and oil spills. incomes and lives.
Marine productivity decreases as sea surface
temperature increases and thus results in unsafe Destruction of infrastructures, transport and utilities
and reduced food. Harmful algal blooms (ciguatera) destabilizes the safe delivery of basic services such
occur. Algal blooms, though of non- toxic variety, as food, water and health.
have been observed for the first time in Balayan Disaster and risk management plans are
Bay in 2002. This is being aggravated by inorganic inadequate.
fertilizer run off and domestic waste dumping. There are no management plans for river-to-sea
There is increased spread of vector-borne disease linkages for flows of water, nutrients, soils and
(dengue fever and malaria) and waterborne species.
diseases (diarrhea). The natural coastal defense structures such as
mangroves that can serve as buffer against storm
72
surges have been converted into fishponds and the LGU, as well as coastal resource management
other uses. (discussion included in the fisheries sector), disaster
Housing development is increasing in coastal areas response and solid waste management. These are
(example is Nasugbu). positive investments that can steer programs in
The domestic water supply needs are being adaptation and even mitigation (Table 62).
provided by existing water districts, municipal water
system and barangay waterworks associations, with Table 62. Assessment of the climate change adaptive capacity for health
groundwater as the main source of potable water, and safety for the Verde Island Passage, 2009.
however, extraction is not regulated. Capacity Municipal Provincial National
requirements level level level
These combined factors can explain weak water supply IEC 3 3 3
system, sanitation and drainage beyond physical Policy formulation and implementation 2 2 3
infrastructure. Human settlements in coastal areas Management bodies

LGU-NGO partnerships
2
3
2
3
2
2
are commonly inhabited by fisherfolk in precarious Community involvement 3 3 3
economic existence, live in unplanned and temporary
settlements, have limited access to clean water
and sufficient nutrition, lack education, sanitation To link concerns about climate change adaptation to
and adequate health-care provision, and lack social health and safety impacts in the Verde Island Passage
status. Also, the informal nature or remoteness of their is a big challenge. As such adaptation is still being
settlements means that relief efforts are less likely to incorporated into governance: the goals, framework,
reach them. These situations are aggravated by the lack strategy, and action plans are still being addressed by
of public knowledge of the impacts of climate change the government. The basic units of management are
and possible adaptation measures. operational, but the demands of responding to climate
change needs scaling up in strategies and operations.
Overall vulnerability assessment
Based on the potential impacts of climate change, A Provincial Disaster Coordinating Office (PACD) or
experts advice based on the review of agency reports a City Disaster Management Coordinating Council is
and inter-agency workshops, scores were assigned expectedly a big challenge in all areas. Their disaster
that reflect the overall vulnerability in health and safety. risk and management plans are still currently being
For each climate projection with high likelihood of formulated but the following programs that are
occurrence, vulnerability was assessed in terms of functional include the organization of Barangay Disaster
exposure and sensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High). Coordinating Councils, formulation of contingency
Table 61 provides a summary of the scores. plans for different events at the municipality level,
implementation and periodic updating on communities
Assessment of adaptive capacity and populations in vulnerable areas and also on
Adaptive mechanisms in health and safety are present evacuation centers.
in relation to health services which are devolved to
Table 61. Health and safety vulnerability assessment of the Verde Island Passage, 2009.
Vulnerability Vulnerability
Indicators of VIP vulnerability within 10 years within 50 years
Flood-prone index (by area category)

Category 1: Almost flooded as a result of heavy rains aggravated by high tide or rise in water level or nearby high high
seas, lakes, rivers, etc.
Category 2: Flooded only after several days of heavy and continuous rains with subsequent rise in water level high high
or lakes, seas, dikes, rivers and canals.
Category 3: Flooded only after several days of exceptionally heavy or continuous rains. moderate to high high
Category 4: Never experienced flood but present environmental condition in the area warrants LGUs concern moderate to high high
on flood, flash flood, land slides and mudslides.
Category 5: Residential areas, national and provincial road networks prone to landslide and mudslides. moderate to high high
Health and disease Index (direct effect on health)

diseases that are temperature-related, water and food-borne, vector- and rodent-borne moderate to high high
food and water shortages low to moderate moderate to high
extreme temperature-related health effects low moderate to high
mental, nutritional, other infectious health effects low low to moderate
CC-ready and ecosystem-based physical infrastructure (direct effect on health)

DRM physical infrastructure moderate to high high
water supply system low to moderate high
drainage system moderate to high high
sanitation system moderate to high high
73
Solid waste management as mandated by R.A.

9003 has set up plans at all levels of the LGU
through Solid Wastes Management Board with
multi-sectoral representatives as members. There
are also health service and social welfare agencies/
institutions/ assistance centers that work at all levels
of governance, with programs and services such as
formal and non-formal education, skills training, spiritual
enrichment, social services, livelihood assistance,
and cooperative development. The Fishery and
Aquatic Resource Management Council (FARMC),
Community Environment and Natural Resources Office,
Protected Areas Management Board and Community-
Based Forestry Management Board are key units
mandated to manage and protect the environment.
Meanwhile, community and household capacities and
means in adapting to health emergencies need to be
strengthened and enhanced. Disasters in recent events
have tacitly demonstrated the impact of climate change
and how adaptation is urgently warranted.
74
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : conclusions and recommendations
Conclusions and recommendations

Performing a vulnerability assessment and suggesting Fisheries
adaptation and mitigation strategies is not a one-time
activity. All previous studies and guidebooks point to The exercise confirmed that climate change affects
the need to treat this as an iterative process, involving different types of fisheries as source of livelihood and
as many stakeholders as possible. Baselines as domestic food in various ways but mostly negatively
starting point in vulnerability assessment have been due to decline in production and productivity as well
crafted opportunistically in the research. Whether as shifting operational regimes. Virtually all types of
through accessed agency data sets or generated from capture fisheries in Verde Island Passage are vulnerable
participative methods, benchmarks that are expected to climate change due to its direct impacts resulting
from governance units revealed huge gaps that could from increase in sea surface temperature (small
provide concerned agencies with a sound basis for a pelagics and seaweed culture) and indirect impacts
comprehensive vulnerability assessment and planning on coastal habitats that provide nursery grounds for
adaptation measures. important fish and invertebrates.
In the course of profiling foreshore areas, for health Aquarium fishing is one of the more vulnerable sectors
and disaster as well as risk mitigation, it was noted that in the fishery because the reef fish are highly dependent
many of the issues are institutional in nature and can on reef health. An aggravating factor is the general
be resolved even without having to factor in climate prohibition imposed by the LGUs on this activity due to
change. As consensus, participants in the project its historical association with cyanide. Tuna fishing and
recommended the following cross-cutting measures fishing of small pelagics are vulnerable, particularly in
that may be implemented immediately at the LGU level the municipal sector which may not adapt immediately
to facilitate vulnerability assessments: to changing operational regimes. Mechanization and
changing gears is an option for adaptation but this may
Draft municipal profiles that are climate change not be very prudent in the light of overfishing, and may
smart and efficiently used, systematize baseline and negate efforts to rehabilitate coastal habitats. Maximum
M&E inclusive of CC. Sustainable Yield (MSY) or its best approximation
Establish a database system for use in synergy by should be estimated to enable informed decision
mandated agencies. making.
Review existing environmental policies and
ordinances related to ecosystem-based adaptation Prepare most vulnerable fishing activities by training
goals, framework and strategies, have policy in alternative livelihood.
reforms and mechanisms for these (across Implement coastal habitat protection as short term
household, community, institutional level). but sustained adaptation methods.
Gear adaptation or mechanization as pelagic fish
Follow-up activities are best pursued immediately, shall move farther offshore provided that level of
to document and assess the process and lessons fishing effort does not exceed sustainable limits and
learned along the way. More importantly, the identified that carrying capacity is first determined.
adaptation and mitigation options should be given Educate seaweed farmers on appropriate methods
priority in implementation by the stakeholders and least impacted on by increase in sea surface
partners if conclusions of the vulnerability assessment temperature.
exercise indicate the area is highly vulnerable to climate Generate area based/site based data and improve
change. catch statistics collection.
Maintain logbooks or data collection at landing sites
Scores of recommendations are presented to (specifically on areas fished) may contribute to the
management units to address climate change impacts overall understanding of climate change impacts
across sectors. Institutional problems and development on fisheries, in particular, and to overall fisheries
issues are recognized as serious constraints that utilization, in general.
efforts in adaptation and mitigation have to overcome, Confirm, through focused research, impacts of
as well as challenges such as competing directions in increasing sea surface temperature and accelerated
development; corruption; lack of political will; priorities sea level rise on commercially important species.
in the use of public funds; destructive, unregulated use Diversify livelihoods of coastal communities.
of natural resources (mining, over fishing, etc.); and
conflicting laws or their non- or weak enforcement.
75
Tourism sector Allocate budget for addressing climate change

impacts.
Policy and implementation mechanisms were identified, Institutionalize Task Force on Climate Change at all
all of which could address climate change impacts but levels of government.
will bring in other benefits in pursuit of environmental
management, such as the following: Within the mandate of LGUs, a number of
recommendations emerged that may address climate
Strictly implement existing laws at both the national change impacts but can result in other benefits as well:
and municipal levels.
Develop sustainable financing mechanisms, such as All LGUs should create and designate MENRO.
implementing user fees in other areas and covering Implement mangrove reforestation.
recreational activities other than scuba diving. Translate policies, plans, etc. for action by barangay
Strengthen existing organizations and management chairpersons.
bodies. Strictly enforce the building code.
Increase technical expertise on survey and Strengthen LGU-NGO partnerships.
monitoring of underwater resources at the local Include upland stakeholders in CRM planning and
level. activities.
Recommendations that directly deal with climate Specific to management of foreshore areas are as
change impacts were also provided by inter-agency follows:
workshop participants:
Devolve FLA approval to LGUs, so the latter can
Include CC adaptation strategies in all AIPs. issue moratorium on FLAs.
Convene all major stakeholders of the tourism DILG to mandate LGUs to manage foreshore areas.
industry to formulate an adaptation plan in dealing DENR should monitor FLAs.
with CC, to include resort owners, boat operators, Revoke agreements between leases and
and tourism-related associations. government for non-compliance of terms.
Provide incentives for community/PO to get their Shorten FLA term for foreshore areas that are titled.
involvement and commitment. Encourage owners to undertake mangrove
Develop reader-friendly information materials and reforestation.
multimedia IEC materials on climate change. Revoke titles of abandoned foreshore areas.
Amend existing policies, resolutions, etc. to specify
Foreshore development rules on foreshore areas.
Many of the management recommendations for In order to address foreshore area management
foreshore area management deal with institutional more effectively, participants recommend undertaking
changes within the current government set-up research in the following areas:
as well as completion of baseline and monitoring
records. National government agencies are being Complete physical inventory and socio-economic
asked to issue policies that will mandate LGUs to profile of foreshore areas.
manage their respective foreshore areas. LGUs are More research on coastal erosion.
recommending that foreshore area management be Complete inventory of environment-related policies.
devolved to them, so that they can appropriately issue
a moratorium on Foreshore Lease Agreements (FLA). Health and food safety
Should management remain within the DENR, LGUs
recommend stricter monitoring, shortening of FLA Peoples health an be compromised by abrupt changes
periods, and revocation of agreements for those that do in atmospheric temperature, accelerated sea level
not comply with the FLA conditions. rise and saltwater intrusion into groundwater sources.
Immediate negative impacts can occur to livelihood
Following is a list of management recommendations and income, food security, health, education, human
being made for national government agencies. settlement and housing.
Recommendations specific to addressing climate
change include the following: Have health and safety in the climate change
adaptation framework and strategy of the lead
Implement adaptive building design to address mandated agency (DOH, LGU).
accelerated sea level rise and storm surges.
76
chapter 2 human well- being and climate change : conclusions and recommendations
Build up from local to national level a public policy

to address demographic pressures on socio-
economic and natural resources.
LGUs to function as coordinative mechanism
for climate change adaptation concerns: health
and food security with coastal and marine-based
resources; health and safety with water, settlement
expansion, infrastructure.
Plan for the current food and health security
systems and infrastructure in anticipation of food
scarcity and diseases brought about by climate
changes.
Increase human safety, have disaster risk reduction,
have flood hazard mapping, disease control.
Have a disease surveillance mechanism.
Put in place plans and programs to provide for safe
water especially in times of calamities.
Use surface water instead of groundwater for both
domestic and agricultural use.
Regulate ground water extraction.
Protect watersheds.
Strictly enforce building code.
Relocate coastal communities.
Craft policy to declare the 100 meter zone from the
highest tide as a no-development zone and off limits
to human settlements.
Manage domestic and industrial waste properly
to pre-empt its aggravate role in climate change
impacts.
Set up measures to manage domestic wastes and
agricultural run off have to be put in place to reduce
the possibility of toxic algal blooms.
As an opportunity in iterative learning, the vulnerability

assessment presented in this report certainly has a lot
of room for improvement and refinement. Furthermore,
there are quite substantial data requirements that are
needed before a full assessment can be undertaken.
Nevertheless, most if not all of the data requirements
are possibly available at government and local offices,
or can eventually be generated when data gathering
is improved. Quick surveys can be conducted by
stakeholders to secure some of the data requirements
that are not available easily. Once it has been applied
in the Verde Island Passage, the stakeholders should
take note of which parts of the framework are useful
and which ones can be improved. Only then can it be
subjected to replication in other conservation corridors
in the country.
77
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78
chapter 3 recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts
Chapter 3:
Recommendations for adapting to
climate change impacts
Climate change has already altered the balance of the need to be taken to increase the adaptive capacity of
oceans with serious and irreversible consequences coastal marine ecosystems and the people that depend
for marine ecosystems and the services they provide. on them. Adapting to climate change is the only solution
The disruption of ecological functions and ecosystem to ensure ecosystems and human societies can survive
services has severe impacts on the well-being of human and maintain their well-being when exposed to climate
communities, especially in coastal areas like the Verde change impacts. To decrease vulnerabilities of the
Island Passage, where human dependencies on the Verde Island Passage to climate change, the following
oceans are high. Immediate and substantial actions recommendations should be implemented.
79
Implement:
municipal management strategies that are climate change-smart and efficiently
used, and ecosystem monitoring and evaluation that address climate change.
sustainable aquaculture practices that minimize the impacts to the natural
ecosystems (e.g., low density finfish pens and chemical-free shrimp ponds).
a review of existing local, regional, and national policies and ordinances focused
on resource management and reform to include ecosystem-based adaptation, and
enable new frameworks where necessary.
guidelines and best practices for coastal and foreshore development planning that
take into account the potential for increased storm activity, salt water intrusion, and other climate change impacts.
Regulate:
artificial reef development, channel dredging, and seaweed farming through zoning
activities.
the establishment of better enforcement of illegal fishing activities including blast
fishing, cyanide fishing, and shark fin fishing.
use of sustainable fishing gear to minimize bycatch.
Instigate:
use of newly propagated accretion from eroded uplands for mangroves as a buffer
against coastal erosion and large waves.
the improvement and retrofit of existing infrastructure to make sure they can
sustain climate impacts.
appropriate engineering of ports, quarries, and foreshore development so as to not
impact long-shore sediment movement.
use of best management practices for fishing on coral reefs, seagrass beds, and
mangrove forests, and increased enforcement towards illegal and destructive
practices (e.g., dynamite fishing and push nets).
enforcement against deforestation and extensive agriculture in the watersheds that promote high sediment runoff,
causing coral reef degradation and the decline of coastal and offshore fisheries.
80
chapter 3 recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts
Establish:
Marine Protected Areas to reduce current impacts, preserve biodiversity, and
sustain fisheries, increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of marine
ecosystems to sustain climate change impacts.
climate-smart Marine Protected Areas that apply adaptive management
approaches to address current and future climate change impacts.
outreach programs to create awareness and engage communities on climate
change and its impacts on marine resources.
enforcement patrol and communication tools among wardens within the local
Marine Protected Area network.
Protect:
areas of critical life stages of vulnerable fisheries species, e.g., siganids, and
critical biological communities, e.g., upwelling areas.
natural mangrove, seagrass, and coral habitats that act as natural coastal defense
mechanisms, reducing erosional processes and buffering storms and other
extreme weather events.
a variety of habitats including seagrass, seaweed, and mangroves as they support
various life stages of multiple fisheries species.
areas (e.g., Mabini, Puerto Galera), species (e.g., whale sharks), and ecosystems
(e.g., mangroves, coral reefs) that sustain important tourism activities, providing income for local communities.
Diversify:
livelihoods for coastal miners (e.g., pebble picking) to reduce coastal erosion and
enable revenues to derive from sustainable practices.
livelihoods, particularly for climate change-vulnerable activities such as aquarium
fishing.
gear use, adaptation, and mechanization within sustainable limits to facilitate
fishing as fish move farther offshore.
opportunities for solid waste and chemical disposal that favor the spread of
disease, pollution, and burial of important coastal ecosystems (e.g., seagrass
meadows and mangrove seedlings).
81
82
chapter 4 outreach and communication strategy
Chapter 4:
Outreach and communication
strategy
Miledel C. Quibilan1 and Giuseppe Di Carlo2, Lead Integrators
Contributing Authors: Michele Reyes (consultant)
1 Marine Science Institute, College of Science, University of the PhilippinesDiliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2 Conservation InternationalUSA
83
Executive summary
Conservation International (CI)Philippines conducted being the first-priority target audience for awareness/
a vulnerability assessment for the impacts of climate engagement, action/implementation and funding
change on marine biodiversity and related human activities.
well-being in the Verde Island Passage. The project
investigated possible ecological effects of climate This document integrates the results of the three
change in the region to inform stakeholders and build stakeholders' workshops and the validation workshop.
local support for such impacts. Initial workshops The strategies were directly developed by stakeholders
were held in Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and and identify climate change adaptation measures
Oriental Mindoro in February and March of 2009. that can be easily integrated into municipal/provincial
These workshops served as venues for stakeholders plans. These measures could also be implemented at
to present their views about the effects of climate the local/municipal scale using local funds. Securing
change on their environment and livelihoods, and to other sources of fundingbeyond the local levelwas
make recommendations for adaptation and mitigation. identified as the next step in adaptation fundraising.
This communication strategy is a product of those
workshops, and contains the actions and activities
proposed by the stakeholders to specifically address
the identified impacts. The results were validated at the
culminating workshop in July 2009 where priorities and
strategies were also identified.
The development of a communications strategy is an

important component of a climate change vulnerability
assessment. The goal of this strategy is to assess
how the outcomes of the vulnerability assessment
will be adopted and mainstreamed to the appropriate
audiences.
This document includes recommendations for

communicating basic information about climate
change, and results of the vulnerability assessment, to
communities in the Verde Island Passage. The strategy
is based on output from stakeholders, drawn from a
series of workshops held in Mindoro and Batangas in
February and March of this year and validated at the
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop in July.
At the preliminary workshops, strategy objectives

identified by participants revolved around three
central themes: awareness and engagement, action/
implementation, and funding. The target audiences
included were elected officials, civil society groups,
students and law enforcers, among others. The
products used to address these needs and reach
the necessary audiences fell into four categories:
multimedia, education/training programs, exposure/
field trips, and legislation. The time frames of these
strategies generally did not exceed the political terms of
elected officials (1-3 years).
During the VA workshop, stakeholders validated the

results of the initial workshops and proceeded to
strategize and prioritize actions to be taken. For all
three main objectives, a top-down approach was the
choice of the majority, with elected/appointed officials
84
chapter 4 outreach and communication strategy : introduction
Introduction
This paper consolidates and summarizes the results Vulnerability assessment workshop
of stakeholder consultation workshops, which were The validation of the draft communications strategy
part of Conservation InternationalPhilippines project: was done during Workshop 3 of the Vulnerability
Vulnerability Assessment of Marine Biodiversity and Assessment workshop. Participants were divided by
related human well-being in the Verde Island Passage province and their task was threefold:
(VIP) to climate change. The first three workshops,
held in February and early March of 2009, were aimed Validate the draft strategy produced during three
at formulating an outreach and communication strategy preliminary workshops.
for the VIP region. Validation of output was then done Prioritize audiences and actions.
during the Vulnerability Assessment workshop, held Formulate strategies to target the identified priority
in Batangas in July. Results of the prioritization and audiences and activities.
strategy-formulation sessions are also presented in this
document.
About the workshops

Preliminary workshops (February and March
2009)
Two-day consultation workshops were conducted by
CIPhilippines in three locations: Oriental Mindoro on
2-4 February (72 participants from 7 municipalities and
1 city), Occidental Mindoro on 25-26 February (29
participants from 4 municipalities), and Batangas on
3-4 March (37 participants from 8 municipalities and 1
city).
During these workshops, a perception survey was done

and participating stakeholders revealed what they knew
about climate change.
A 4-P design (Earle et al. 2006) was then used for the
workshop. Participants were divided into groups based
on their positions or functions. Each group was then
asked to:
Identify key problems of local governments

regarding understanding climate change and
its impacts on marine biodiversity and related
human-well being and formulate objectives for a
communications strategy based on the areas needs
and the problems identified.
dentify key audiences for the communications
strategy. Specific actions that could be taken by
each target audience were also identified as well
as the possible incentives each could get for its
involvement in such an endeavor.
Enumerate specific products to deliver the
messages related to the problem statement to
reach target audiences.
Formulate practical plans of action to fulfill the
objectives identified at the beginning of the
workshop.
85
Results
Preliminary workshops Table 63. Breakdown of participants of the preliminary workshops.
Designation Percent of total

Stakeholders drew up objectives for the
communications strategy, with most of the suggestions PENRO/PG-ENRO/MENRO 13.27
revolving around three central themes: awareness/ MAO

PPDO/MPDC
11.22
19.39
engagement, action/implementation, and funding. SP / SB 16.33
Their target audiences included, elected officials, civil Mayors 2.04
Fisheries/Aquatech 9.18
society groups, students, law enforcers and others. The Agritech 2.04
products that they chose to communicate with were Tourism 4.08
various forms of media, education/training programs, Other government officials
NGOs
8.16
8.16
exposure/field trips, and legislation. Political terms of FARMCs 6.12
incumbent officials defined the timelines for most of The full results of each preliminary workshop were outlined in earlier documents.
the proposed activities (1-3 years) and the suggested
strategies did not move above the provincial levelin
fact, most were proposed for implementation at the
municipal level.
The draft strategy drawn from the results, demonstrated

the existence of a basic understanding of climate
change, based mostly on its effects rather than
understating the concepts. Many people stated that
climate change was the result of human activities such
as burning and pollution. However, others identified it
with changing/extreme weather patterns, sea level rise,
scarcity of food and loss of freshwater. The fact that
most stakeholders defined climate change in terms of
how it affected them and their immediate environment,
is important to determine a successful communications
strategy.
Draft plans drawn up by the stakeholders also

demonstrated an awareness of identifying gaps or
"needs". They identified the need to disseminate
information on climate change and the need for funding
for climate change projects as their most serious
issues.
Stakeholders realistic attitude towards the adoption

of a communications strategy was reflected in the
timelines they drew up for implementation, which
generally stayed within the three year term of incumbent
local officials. It is important to note that the participants
in the stakeholders workshops were largely employees
of the local government (Table 63). This group made
up over 85% of the attendees of the preliminary
workshops, so it should come as no surprise that
timeline planning often depends on political election
schedules.
86
chapter 4 outreach and communication strategy : results
Vulnerability assessment workshop

Natural and social scientists who attended the
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop provided data
and analyses of the vulnerability of the Verde Island to
climate change. The main goals of the communications
strategy are to use the results of the Vulnerability
Assessment to:
mainstream priorities; and,

deliver climate change messages to key audiences
For the validation and prioritization part of the workshop,

results were as follows:
Workshop 3Part 1 and 2: Validation and Prioritization

*items in italics were added by the stakeholders during the validation process
Objective 1: awareness and engagement

Priority
Public/Target Or. Occ. Mar. and Or. Occ. Mar. and
audience Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Product Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Implementers
Elected officials and 1 1 1 1 capacity building 2 1 1 1 Mayors

local government units (seminars/dialogues) SB
production/distribution/ 1 2 2 2 Bishop, religious sector
display of IEC materials DENR
DILG
Department of Education
MHO
MFARMC
MAO/MENRO
MPDO
Provincial - Municipal Information
Office
Civil Society Groups 2 4 5 5 information/education 1 1 1 2 NGOs

campaign Academia
training and capacity 3 Local media
building
multi-sectoral meetings 2 2 2 1
on CC
Farmers and fishermen 4 2 2 2 information/education 1 LGU

campaign and advocacy DA
capacity building 3 1 1 NGOs
(forums and seminars)
regular FARMC 2 2 2
meetings
Religious groups
General public 5 5 4 4 pastoral letter or sermon 1 3 x
community outreach 3 2 1
meetings and 4 4 2
fellowships
multimedia 2 1
presentations
Schools 3 3 3 3 meetings and seminars 1 1 1 NGOs

- principals and teachers multimedia 2 3 3 Department of Education
- students presentations LGUs
games 5 5 5 DENR
field trips 4 4 4
integration of CC in the 3 2 2
school curriculum
87
Objective 2: action and implementation

Priority
Public/Target Or. Occ. Mar. and Or. Occ. Mar. and Implementers and
audience Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Product Min. Min. Bat. Rom. co-implementers
General Public 5 1 4 4 law enforcement 1 1 1 LGUs

Bantay Dagat
Schools 4 2 5 5 mangrove rehabilitation 1 1 1 LGUs

projects Rural Health Units
Business sector 2 3 1 7 regulations concerning 1 1 LGUs

private sectors
responsibilities to the
community
come up with incentive 3 3
schemes for companies
with positive cc-related
operations
waste management 2 2
programs
provide environmental 4
friendly products for
sale
General Public 3 6 conduct capacity 1 1 2 LGU

building activities Business Sector
barangay level planning Chamber of Commerce
activities 2 2 1 NGOs (ex. CI and Mindoro
provide environmental 3 Biodiversity Foundation)
friendly products for DENR
sale National Solid Waste
Management
Community 3 3 organize coastal 1 1 2 LGU

barangay climate
change programs
partnership with ngos, 2 2 1
private sectors
coastal clean up 3 3 3
Elected Officials 1 3 1 approval/implementation 3 5 5 5 MAO

of plans (i.e., disaster MENRO
management plan) MG
awarding of incentives 6 9 9 9 LGU
to performing barangays DILG
enforcement of laws LGUPGOM
organization of a task 5 6 7 7 MPDO/ PPDO-RSED
force on cc MG-Task Force
issuance of executive 2 1 2 1 Mindoro Biodiversity Foundation
orders, ordinances, etc CIPhilippines
monitoring and 1 4 1 6 Provincial governments
evaluation of plans 4 8 8 8
implemented
environmental scanning 2 3 3
integration of climate 7 6 4
change into the tourism 2
program
vulnerability assessment 3 4
Local Government Units 2 2 incentive schemes for 6 6 Sanggunian

positive practices in cc National agencies
adaptation DENR
amend laws to NGOs
accommodate climate 1 4 Municipal engineeri
change adaptation and Congressman
mitigation LCE
declare climate MENRO
awareness day PNP
enactment of 5 5 Coast Guard/
ordinances/ resolutions Bantay Dagat
regarding climate 3 1
change
enforcement of
ordinances and
approved easement 4 2
areas
zoning/rezoning 2 3
88
Objective 2: action and implementation (continued)

Priority
Public/Target Or. Occ. Mar. and Or. Occ. Mar. and Implementers and
audience Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Product Min. Min. Bat. Rom. co-implementers
Military 6 7 8 law enforcement 1 LGUs
- NGOs and peoples 2 8 6 assist in the 1 2 2 LGUs

organizations dissemination of
information on climate
- National line agencies change 3 3 3
provide supplies and
materials 2 1 1
technical assistance
Objective 3: funding
Priority
Public/Target Or. Occ. Mar. and Or. Occ. Mar. and
audience Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Product Min. Min. Bat. Rom. Implementers
LGUs n/a n/a n/a n/a Ordinances to provide 1 1 1 1 Policy makers

government funding for
climate change projects
n/a n/a n/a n/a Partnerships with 2 3 3 2 Community

NGOs and the private
sector
n/a n/a n/a n/a provide supplies and 4 5 3 National Line Agencies
materials
provide funding 2 2 4
n/a n/a n/a n/a provide help with 5 4 5 NGOs

funding
89
Workshop 3Part 3: Strategy Formulation
Oriental Mindoro
Awareness and engagement
Priority public: Elected and appointed officials
Priority product: Production and distribution of IEC materials
Strategy: Preparation and distribution of IEC materials (flyers, comics, media blitz) by the local
government unit from August to December
Action and implementation
Priority Public: Elected officials
Priority Product: Organization of a task force on climate change
Strategy: Creation of provincial/municipal task force thru an EO 774 by the LCE August
Funding
Priority public: Local government units
Priority product: Ordinances to provide government funding for climate change projects
Strategy: Formulation and adoption of investment plan by the Task Force by August to December
Occidental Mindoro
Priority public: Elected officials and Local government units
Priority products: Capacity building and IEC
Strategy: Local government unit climate change task force to gather info materials from expert
organizations/agencies. Reproduce materials appropriate to the area of jurisdiction and
invite resource persons
Action and implementation
Priority public: General public
Priority product: Law enforcement
Strategy: Request experts to deliver lectures
Funding
Priority product: Ordinances to provide government funding for projects
Strategy: Formulation and adoption of investment plan by the task force by August to December
Batangas
Priority public: Elected officials and local government units
Priority products: Capacity building
Strategy: 1. Conduct one-on-one separate briefing for the Mayor and the members of the SB
2. Organized joint meeting with executive and legislative branch
3. Preparation of IEC materials, e.g., flyers, primer and electronic presentations
Action and Implementation
Priority public: Business sector
Priority product: Regulations concerning private sectors responsibilities to the community
Strategy: Make sure that the corporate social responsibility of all the business sectors be part of
the process in coming up with the climate change awareness program, through:
a. capacity building
b. distribution of IEC materials
c. provision of incentives
Funding
Strategy: 1. formulation and passing of ordinances concerning collection of fees
2. lobbying for a percentage out of the collection from fines and penalties to be
allotted or allocated to climate change programs and projects
3. build transparent relationship with business sector and a percentage from the CSR
fund be allotted to climate change programs and projects
90
Marinduque and Romblon

Awareness and Engagement
Priority public: Elected officials and Local government units
Priority products: Capacity building
Strategy: 1. coordination through the SB
2. include in the municipal SB agenda
3. conduct the actual capacity building
Action and Implementation
Priority public: Elected officials
Priority product: Organization of a task force on climate change
Strategy: 1. identification of climate change members
2. organizational meeting
3. creation of climate change task force through ordinance
Funding
Strategy: 1. coordination with the SB
2. draft an ordinance
3. deliberation
4. public hearing
As seen above, over 85% of the people involved in with NGOs and the business sector closely followed
the formulation of the draft strategy, work for the local in importance. It appears that environmental projects
government units. This group also made up the bulk of are not prioritized for funding by local government units
the participants of the VA workshop. Therefore, this may because their benefits are difficult to quantify. Local
explain why the elected officials were identified as the officials are also concerned that projects they fund will
priority target audience for all three objectives of the affect the number of votes that they receive at the next
climate change communications strategy. election. This makes them biased towards projects that
have immediate, readily visible local benefits, such as
The prioritization of local officials for the health programs and infrastructure.
communications strategy suggests that the majority
of the stakeholders believe these people have the The strategies identified, addressed capacity building,
greatest capacity to impact (directly or indirectly) behavior change and taking action. The product of
climate change perceptions in local communities. The greatest importance, was the municipal ordinance,
results of the validation also suggest that the main which would then make climate change activities a legal
focus of the strategy should be at the level of the mandate. There is also a clear top-down trend in the
municipal governments since the national government priorities and strategies identified in the workshops,
is generally not active in implementation, even though with government officials as priority targets and the
all management falls under national laws and policies. general public taking second priority.
This reflects the fact that the Local Government
Code of 1991 transferred many environment-related
responsibilities of the national government to the local
government units.
Second priority was given to fishermen and farmers

for awareness building, likely due to the fact that they
are the people most directly impacted by the effects of
climate change. The business sector was considered an
important target for the action/implementation objective.
This reflects a common belief that government initiatives
are not sufficient enough to complete environmental
projects. This same attitude is apparent in the results
for the third objective, which is to find funding for
climate change projects. Although funding from within
the local government units was prioritized, partnerships
91
Recommendations
Certain questions regarding prioritization were be taken with caution. Other stakeholders (non-
answered in the workshop, but further thought on the governmental) may have a different point of view of the
following points is recommended: problem and it is possible that a centralized approach
by the local government will be one sided and bring up
1. The need to be more specific. conflicts of interest. Climate change has effects that
The natural and social scientists present at the go beyond the municipal or even provincial level and it
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop provided may be necessary to have outside help to understand
information about climate change effects in the area, how local activities can fit into the 'bigger picture'. This
however there is a need for site-specific information. is already being attempted in the VIP, with municipal
Not all parts of the VIP will be affected in the same and provincial plans being integrated into the Verde
way and so the information to be disseminated can be Passage framework plan.
tailored for each area as needed with greater specificity.
5. The need for evaluation and follow up
2. Should the message to be delivered be positive It is inevitable that some aspects of the strategy will
or negative? work better than others or that some actions will work
One thing to be considered will be whether to use in certain areas and not elsewhere. Just as ecosystems
positive messages or "scare" tactics in the strategy. can vary between locations and the effects of climate
The results of the workshop established quite clearly change are felt differently, the communications strategy
that what matters most to stakeholders in this region may need to be flexible with regards to both content
is how climate change will specifically affect them at and implementation. Available funding may play some
the present time. Next, we need to determine how part in determining which areas, and people receive
stakeholders perceive climate change, and how resources to conduct follow up measures. Regardless
these perceptions may need to be changed to impact of approach and jurisdiction, there is a need for some
attitudes and behavior. Then a decision will have to provisions to ensure follow up of the communications
be made between encouraging, coaxing, scaring process to guarantee that the proper messages reach
or perhaps even enforcing the issue (i.e., imposing the appropriate audiences. In addition, certain criteria
penalties) to effect those changes. will be drawn up to quantify changes in behavior or to
determine the overall effectiveness of the strategy. The
3. Do we use/improve material that already exists strategy should then be modified and adapted where it
or develop new materials? is not perceived to be effective.
Discussions during and between the workshops
suggest that most of the stakeholders believe adapting
existing materials (i.e., translating existing materials on
climate change into their local dialects) is preferable
to creating new material. This is mostly because of
funding constraints. It is also interesting to note that,
although coming up with new laws and ordinances is
prioritized in the strategy, some people actually believe
it will be easier to find a way to integrate activities into
existing plans and priority projects (i.e., solid waste
management, disaster preparedness) than to come up
with and implement new laws. The second part of the
VA workshop has already initialized steps to integrate
climate change into local government unit plans, and so
the challenge will be to carry on from there.
4. Who will be responsible for implementing

actions?
Again, as the majority of the people consulted work
for the local government units, it is not strange
that they recommend a top-down approach for the
communications strategy. Some recommended the
creation of a task force to concentrate on the problem.
This kind of centralized approach should, however,
92
chapter 4 outreach and communication strategy : references
References
Earle S, Margit A, MacDowell M, and D Lerda (Eds.), 2006. Designing a
communications strategy: the 4-P workshop. Global communications for
Conservation International. 112 pp.
93
Conservation International (CI)
Mission
Building upon a strong foundation of science,
partnership and field demonstration, CI
empowers societies to responsibly and
sustainably care for nature, our global
biodiversity, for the well-being of humanity.
Vision
We imagine a healthy prosperous world in
which societies are forever committed to caring
for and valuing nature, our global biodiversity,
for the long-term benefit of people and all life
on Earth.

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of The Verde Island Passage, Philippines

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Climate change

Emily Pidgeon, PhD

Rowena Boquiren, PhD

This document should be cited as: R. Boquiren, G. Di Carlo,

Science Communication Team

In September 2008, Conservation International, Conservation International and it partners are

This work would not have been possible without the

We also express our gratitude to each of the

Chapter 2: Human well-being and climate change in the

Chapter 3: Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts......................... 79

Chapter 4: Outreach and communication strategy................................................................. 83

The Verde Island Passage, located in the Sulu- Pertinent results

Areas that suggest that adaptation measures are

For biodiversity and fisheries, these areas would be

For human well-being, these areas would also be sites

The potential impact of climate change to an

Predictions of changes in temperature, precipitation

The coasts along the Verde Island Passage corridor

0 The Verde Island Passage, located in the Sulu-Sulawesi

Figure 3. Schematic of seasonal circulation during the

may affect marine biodiversity include temperature,

et al. 2008). Knowledge of the extent or severities

120E 121E 122E 123E

Increase in ocean temperature 1985-2005 Trends (C/decade)

experienced an average increase of about 0.025C/

Figure 5 SST increase (C/year) from 1985-2005 (taken 2.5

from ICE-CREAM Proj.1 mid-term report). 2.0

For the Verde Island Passage, the study on sea 1.0

surface temperature utilized the 1985-2006 gap- 0.5

filled, 4 km resolution, weekly SST product developed 0

NOAA AVHRR 22-year data showed a 0.15-0.30 oC/ -1.0

decade increase in the VIP region (Figure 6). In general -1.5

observation is the northeast side of Occidental Mindoro -2.5 VIP

and the northwestern tip of Lubang Island. Offshore

I. 1985-1990 Maximum SST anomaly

Figure 8. Annual maximum SST anomaly: Max SST-basemax.

2008 for the VIP) shows a lesser degree of increase of

HadISST1 is an interpolated SST global product of

both in situ SST observations from ships and buoys,

(inclusion started in 1982) (Rayner et al. 2003).

The 10-yr smoothed and de-trended annual HadISST1

Specifically, all satellite-derived images go back in time -0.15

to positive. All synoptic data available therefore belong

to the PDO positive regime. In 2008, the early stage

Increase in cyclonicity 0.5

and typically experiences more than 20 typhoons per -1.5 -0.6

year. Patterns of typhoon generation and propagation -2.0

passed through the Philippines indicate a southward a)

(Anglo 2005) and an increased relative frequency of

160 typhoons passed to within 200 km of the VIP

recent (2008), and the size is scaled according to 15N

strong typhoons (Category 4-5) in the period before 1990

roughly more than half belong to the strong typhoon

average of two to three storms passed near the Verde

some years when at least six typhoons crossed the 1960

area. The highest occurrence was in 1993 with eight 1955

storms (Figure 12). 11N

Figure 11 a) Plot of typhoon tracks from 1950- 2009; and b)

100E 120E 140E 160E 2