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    Nelson Leads Scott in 2018 Senate Race

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    Phil Ammann
    Gov. Rick Scott hasn’t announced he’s running for U.S. Senate in 2018, but a new survey shows he’s already trailing in the polls.

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    Nelson Leads Scott in 2018 Senate Race

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    Phil Ammann
    849 views7 pages
    Gov. Rick Scott hasn’t announced he’s running for U.S. Senate in 2018, but a new survey shows he’s already trailing in the polls.

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    Gov. Rick Scott hasn’t announced he’s running for U.S. Senate in 2018, but a new survey shows he’s already trailing in the polls.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    849 views7 pages

    Nelson Leads Scott in 2018 Senate Race

    Uploaded by

    Phil Ammann
    Gov. Rick Scott hasn’t announced he’s running for U.S. Senate in 2018, but a new survey shows he’s already trailing in the polls.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 7

    NELSON LEADS SCOTT IN 2018 SENATE RACE,

    OUTCOME LIKELY TIED TO THE FATE OF TRUMP

    Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson holds a 5-point lead over potential Republican
    challenger Rick Scott in a current match-up for Floridas U.S. Senate seat, which is
    up for election in 2018.

    Statewide, Nelson leads Scott 46%-41%, with 13% undecided. Nelson is ahead
    among Democrats (81%-10%), Independents (46%-37%), Women (49%-36%), Blacks
    (84%-6%) and Hispanics (59%-26%). Scott has the advantage with (Republicans
    77%-9%), Men (47%-43%) and Whites (51%-36%).

    Nelson has a large lead in Southeast Florida (60%-24%) and a more modest one in
    Tampa Bay (47%-40%). Scott is up by big margins in North Florida (56%-34%) and
    Southwest Florida (52%-37%). The two candidates are tied (44%-44%) in Central
    Florida.

    Nelson (42%) and Scott (41%) are viewed favorably by roughly the same number of
    state voters. However, Scott has considerably higher negatives (38%) while Nelson
    is undefined or unrecognized by a large number of them (33%) despite his long
    political career. This contrast in perception will be part of the dynamic of the race,
    as Scott stirs more passion and polarization (much like Trump), while Nelson is
    generally liked but perceived as a bland policy wonk.

    1
    The outcome of the race will likely be shaped by the political fortunes of President
    Donald Trump. The central question is how will the country feel about Trump in
    2018? Trump carried Florida by one percentage point, but his personal popularity
    has slipped into slightly negative territory 43% have a favorable opinion of him
    and 48% have an unfavorable view.

    To date, however, Trump has managed to largely maintain his base, despite his
    personal proclivities and the political side-show that they create. He was elected
    on a change message and swing voters, who have shown they are less interested in
    the circus, bought into his agenda. How they still feel about that agenda and his
    success or failure implementing it is going to be a very important factor in 2018.
    Given the narrow margin that he carried the state by, he doesnt have much room
    for error in Florida.

    Right now, Floridians appear to be almost as equally split as they were on Election
    Day. Asked if they were more inclined to vote for a Democratic Senate candidate
    to help block the Trump agenda or a Republican Senate candidate to help enact it,
    47% said they would vote for the Democrat and 45% said they would vote for the
    Republican. A slightly tighter outcome than the Nelson-Scott horse race results
    show.

    One interesting aspect of the race is that the political labeling will be upside down.
    Scott the former businessman who was elected governor in 2010 as a non-
    politician outsider will be the status quo candidate. Nelson the career
    politician with over 40 years in public office will be the agent of change.

    It will be easier to size up this potential race once the country is deeper into the
    Trump presidency. Scott is a strong Trump ally, and will be well positioned to carry
    his banner if the president can pass and keep his agenda popular. Nelson,
    however, will be in the drivers seat should voters become disenchanted with
    Trumps programs and promises.

    2
    STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

    Do you recognize the name ________?


    (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

    RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T


    FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

    Donald Trump 43% 48% 9% -

    Bill Nelson 42% 25% 22% 11%

    Rick Scott 41% 38% 18% 3%

    3
    QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Floridas U.S. Senate seat were held today, for
    whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat and Rick
    Scott, the Republican?

    NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    STATE 46% 41% 13%

    REGION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    North Florida 34% 56% 10%


    Central Florida 44% 44% 12%
    Tampa Bay 47% 40% 13%
    Southwest Florida 37% 52% 11%
    Southeast Florida 60% 24% 16%

    SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    Men 43% 47% 10%


    Women 49% 36% 15%

    AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    18-34 50% 34% 16%


    35-49 47% 39% 14%
    50-64 43% 45% 12%
    65+ 45% 44% 11%

    RACE/ETHNICITY NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    White 36% 51% 13%


    Black 84% 6% 10%
    Hispanic 59% 26% 15%

    PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

    Democrat 81% 10% 9%


    Republican 9% 77% 14%
    Independent 46% 37% 17%

    4
    QUESTION: Thinking ahead to the 2018 Florida Senate race, would you say that
    you are currently more inclined to vote for: (ORDER ROTATED)

    - a Democratic candidate to help block President Donald Trumps agenda or

    - a Republican candidate to help enact President Donald Trumps agenda

    BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    STATE 47% 45% 8%

    REGION BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    North Florida 39% 56% 5%


    Central Florida 43% 49% 8%
    Tampa Bay 46% 44% 10%
    Southwest Florida 37% 56% 7%
    Southeast Florida 60% 31% 9%

    SEX BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    Men 43% 51% 6%


    Women 51% 40% 9%

    AGE BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    18-34 54% 39% 7%


    35-49 49% 42% 9%
    50-64 44% 45% 11%
    65+ 43% 52% 5%

    RACE/ETHNICITY BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    White 35% 58% 7%


    Black 88% 5% 7%
    Hispanic 66% 22% 12%

    PARTY REGISTRATION BLOCK ENACT NOT SURE

    Democrat 86% 11% 3%


    Republican 8% 79% 13%
    Independent 42% 47% 11%

    5
    HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

    This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville,
    Florida from February 24 through February 28, 2017. A total of 625 registered
    Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.

    Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last
    four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in
    order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell
    phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were
    assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

    The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no


    more than 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability
    that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The
    margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

    6
    DEMOGRAPHICS

    PARTY REGISTRATION:

    Democrat 244 (39%)


    Republican 229 (37%)
    Independent or Other 152 (24%)

    AGE:
    18-34 117 (19%)
    35-49 163 (26%)
    50-64 171 (27%)
    65+ 170 (27%)
    Refused 4 (1%)

    RACE/ETHNICITY:
    White/Caucasian 417 (67%)
    Black/African American 76 (12%)
    Hispanic or Cuban 103 (16%)
    Other 23 (4%)
    Refused 6 (1%)

    SEX:
    Male 297 (48%)
    Female 328 (52%)

    REGION:
    North Florida 135 (22%)
    Central Florida 120 (19%)
    Tampa Bay 115 (18%)
    Southwest Florida 75 (12%)
    Southeast Florida 180 (29%)

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