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Full Merger Model Kraft-Kellogg - Shell

Kraft acquires Kellogg in a $18.3 billion transaction consisting of 20% cash ($3.7 billion) and 80% Kraft shares, representing a 13% premium for Kellogg shares. The acquisition will result in Kraft shareholders owning 72.9% of the combined company and Kellogg shareholders owning 27.1%. The merger is expected to be accretive to Kraft's earnings per share by 6.6-24.9% based on projected synergies.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
698 views9 pages

Full Merger Model Kraft-Kellogg - Shell

Kraft acquires Kellogg in a $18.3 billion transaction consisting of 20% cash ($3.7 billion) and 80% Kraft shares, representing a 13% premium for Kellogg shares. The acquisition will result in Kraft shareholders owning 72.9% of the combined company and Kellogg shareholders owning 27.1%. The merger is expected to be accretive to Kraft's earnings per share by 6.6-24.9% based on projected synergies.

Uploaded by

Georgi Vankov
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 9

MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG

($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)

Companies
Acquirer Kraft
Target Kellogg
Transaction Date 12/19/2008

Shares Outstanding (fully diluted) Earnings Per Share 2008E 2009E


Err:502 1,475.3 Err:502 $1.91 $2.00
Err:502 381.7 Err:502 $3.01 $3.15

Current Share Price Price / Earnings Ratio


Err:502 $26.67 Err:502 14.0x 13.3x
Err:502 $42.63 Err:502 14.2x 13.5x
Err:502 15.9x 15.2x
Premium for Target Shares 13%
Err:502 $48.00
Accretion / Dilution 2008E 2009E
Proforma Net Income $2,902.7 $3,142.3
Err:502 $18,321.6 Proforma Shares Outstanding 2,024.8 2,024.8
Err:502 $23,186.6 Earnings Per Share $1.43 $1.55

Err:502 % Per Share Total EPS Accretion / (Dilution) -24.9% -22.4%


Cash Component 20% $9.60 $3,664.3
Err:502 80% $38.40 $14,657.3 Base Case Upside Choose
Total 100% $48.00 $18,321.6 Synergy Assumptions: 1 2 1
Revenue Improvement 0% 1% 0%
Sources for Cash Component Gross Margin Improvement 0% 1% 0%
Cash on Balance Sheet $0.0 SG&A as % of Sales Improvement 0% 1% 0%
Interest Rate earned on Cash 4%
New Debt $3,664.3 Income Statement Statistics Base Case Upside
Interest Rate on New Debt 6% 2008P
Revenue $56,869.7 $57,438.4
Sources for Acquirer Share Issues EBITDA $7,489.1 $9,195.2
Exchange Ratio 1.44x Net Income $2,902.7 $4,029.8
Err:502 549.6 EBITDA Margin 13% 16%
Proforma Shares Outstanding 2,024.8 Net Income Margin 5% 7%
EPS Accretion / (Dilution) -24.9% 6.6%
Proforma Ownership
Err:502 72.9% 2009P
Err:502 27.1% Revenue $57,639.1 $58,215.5
Total 100% EBITDA $7,730.0 $9,459.2
Net Income $3,142.3 $4,318.2
Goodwill $15,702.6 EBITDA Margin 13% 16%
Additional Amortizable Intangibles $0.0 Net Income Margin 5% 7%
Amortize Intangibles? (yes or no) No EPS Accretion / (Dilution) -22.4% 6.6%
If yes, how many years? 20

Page 1
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Balance Sheet
($ in millions)
Kraft Kellogg Proforma
Balance Sheet September 30, September 28, Negative Positive September 30,
Assets 2008 2008 Adjustments Adjustments 2008
Cash $737.0 $684.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1,421.0
Accounts Receivable $4,709.0 $1,243.0 $0.0 $0.0 $5,952.0
Inventory $4,664.0 $907.0 $0.0 $0.0 $5,571.0
Deferred Income Taxes $754.0 $145.0 $0.0 $0.0 $899.0
Other Current Assets $393.0 $128.0 $0.0 $0.0 $521.0
Total Current Assets $11,257.0 $3,107.0 $0.0 $0.0 $14,364.0

Gross PP&E $18,903.0 $7,499.0 $0.0 $0.0 $26,402.0


Cumulative Depreciation $8,265.0 $4,432.0 $0.0 $0.0 $12,697.0
Net PP&E $10,638.0 $3,067.0 $0.0 $0.0 $13,705.0

Goodwill $28,573.0 $3,652.0 $0.0 $15,702.6 $47,927.6


Intangible Assets $13,496.0 $1,449.0 $0.0 $0.0 $14,945.0
Prepaid Pension Costs $1,712.0 $511.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2,223.0
Other Assets $1,269.0 $252.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1,521.0
Total Assets $66,945.0 $12,038.0 $0.0 $15,702.6 $94,685.6

Liabilities
CPLTD $719.0 $2.0 $0.0 $0.0 $721.0
Accounts Payable $3,439.0 $1,134.0 $0.0 $0.0 $4,573.0
Accrued Marketing $1,751.0 $417.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2,168.0
Accrued Income Taxes $0.0 $30.0 $0.0 $0.0 $30.0
Accrued Employment Costs $902.0 $262.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1,164.0
Other Current Liabilities $2,484.0 $388.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2,872.0
Total Current Liabilities $9,295.0 $2,233.0 $0.0 $0.0 $11,528.0

Revolving Line of Credit $1,000.0 $1,539.0 $0.0 $3,664.3 $6,203.3


Long-Term Debt $18,874.0 $4,008.0 $0.0 $0.0 $22,882.0
Deferred Income Taxes $5,439.0 $708.0 $0.0 $0.0 $6,147.0
Accrued Pension Costs $771.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $771.0
Accrued Postretirement Costs $2,890.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2,890.0
Other Liabilities $2,275.0 $931.0 $0.0 $0.0 $3,206.0
Total Liabilities $40,544.0 $9,419.0 $0.0 $3,664.3 $53,627.3

Minority Interests $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Shareholders Equity
Common Stock $0.0 $105.0 ($105.0) $14,657.3 $14,657.3
Additional paid-in Capital $23,505.0 $424.0 ($424.0) $0.0 $23,505.0
Retained Earnings $13,623.0 $4,790.0 ($4,790.0) $0.0 $13,623.0
Accumulated Losses ($2,005.0) ($888.0) $888.0 $0.0 ($2,005.0)
Treasury Stock, at Cost ($8,722.0) ($1,812.0) $1,812.0 $0.0 ($8,722.0)
Total Shareholders Equity $26,401.0 $2,619.0 ($2,619.0) $14,657.3 $41,058.3

Total Liabilities and Equity $66,945.0 $12,038.0 ($2,619.0) $18,321.6 $94,685.6


Check $0.0 $0.0 ($2,619.0) $2,619.0 $0.0

Page 2
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Financial Statements

PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS


($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM Sept. 2008 2008P 2009P
Income Statement (1)

Revenue
Kraft $42,684.0 $43,795.5 $44,155.6
Kellogg $12,683.0 $13,074.2 $13,483.5
Synergies $0.0 $0.0
Total Revenue $55,367.0 $56,869.7 $57,639.1
% Growth 2.7% 1.4%

COGS (Excludes D&A)


Kraft $28,446.0 $29,118.5 $29,230.5
Kellogg $7,276.0 $7,563.6 $7,770.9
Synergies $0.0 $0.0
Total COGS $35,722.0 $36,682.1 $37,001.4
COGS as % of Revenue 64.5% 64.2%

Gross Profit $19,645.0 $20,187.6 $20,637.7


Gross Profit 35.5% 35.5% 35.8%

SG&A Expenses
Kraft $9,398.0 $9,163.0 $9,201.1
Kellogg $3,440.0 $3,535.5 $3,706.6
Synergies $0.0 $0.0
Total SG&A Expenses $12,838.0 $12,698.5 $12,907.7
SG&A as % of Revenue 23.2% 22.3% 22.4%

Depreciation & Amortization $1,347.0 $1,373.7 $1,405.5

Operating Income / EBIT $5,460.0 $6,115.4 $6,324.5


Operating Income / EBIT Margin 9.9% 10.8% 11.0%

EBITDA $6,807.0 $7,489.1 $7,730.0


EBITDA Margin 12.3% 13.2% 13.4%
EBITDA Growth na 10.0% 3.2%

Interest Expense na $1,678.2 $1,490.3


Interest Income na $28.4 $0.0
Net Interest Expense na $1,649.7 $1,490.3

Other Income / (Expense)

Pretax Income $4,465.7 $4,834.2

Taxes $1,563 $1,692


Tax Rate 35.0% 35.0%

Net Income $2,902.7 $3,142.3


Net Margin 5.1% 5.5%
Net Income Growth na 8.3%
(1) Source for Revenue, COGS, SG&A Projections: Credit Suisse Equity Research reports.

Page 3
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Financial Statements

PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS


($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM Sept. 2008 2008P 2009P
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1,421.0 $0.0 $0.0
Accounts Receivable $5,952.0 $6,113.5 $6,196.3
Inventory $5,571.0 $5,720.73 $5,770.53
Deferred Income Taxes $899.0 $923.40 $935.9
Other Current Assets $521.0 $535.1 $542.4
Total Current Assets $14,364.0 $13,292.8 $13,445.1

Gross PP&E $26,402.0 $28,264.2 $30,115.2


Cumulative Depreciation $12,697.0 $14,070.7 $15,476.2
Net PP&E $13,705.0 $14,193.5 $14,639.0

Goodwill $47,927.6 $47,927.6 $47,927.6


Intangible Assets $14,945.0 $14,945.0 $14,945.0
Prepaid Pension Costs $2,223.0 $2,283.33 $2,314.23
Other Assets $1,521.0 $1,562.28 $1,583.42
Total Assets $94,685.6 $94,204.5 $94,854.3

Liabilities
CPLTD $721.0 $760.0 $507.0
Accounts Payable $4,573.0 $4,695.91 $4,736.78
Accrued Marketing $2,168.0 $2,226.3 $2,245.6
Accrued Income Taxes $30.0 $30.8 $31.1
Accrued Employment Costs $1,164.0 $1,195.3 $1,205.7
Other Current Liabilities $2,872.0 $2,949.2 $2,974.9
Total Current Liabilities $11,528.0 $11,857.5 $11,701.1

Revolving Line of Credit $6,203.3 $2,826.1 $997.1


Long-Term Debt $22,882.0 $22,546.0 $22,039.0
Deferred Income Taxes $6,147.0 $6,147.0 $6,147.0
Accrued Pension Costs $771.0 $771.0 $771.0
Accrued Postretirement Costs $2,890.0 $2,890.0 $2,890.0
Other Liabilities $3,206.0 $3,206.0 $3,206.0
Total Liabilities $53,627.3 $50,243.6 $47,751.1

Minority Interest $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Total Shareholders Equity $41,058.3 $43,961.0 $47,103.2

Total Liabilities and Equity $94,685.6 $94,204.5 $94,854.3


Check $0.0 - $0.0

Page 4
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Financial Statements

PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS


($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM Sept. 2008 2008P 2009P
Cash Flow
Net Income $2,902.7 $3,142.3
Plus / (minus):
Depreciation and Amortization $1,374 $1,406
Changes in Working Capital
Accounts Receivable ($161.5) ($82.7)
Inventory ($149.7) ($49.8)
Deferred Income Taxes ($24.4) ($12.5)
Other Current Assets ($14.1) ($7.2)
Accounts Payable $122.9 $40.9
Accrued Marketing $58.3 $19.4
Accrued Income Taxes $0.8 $0.3
Accrued Employment Costs $31.3 $10.4
Other Current Liabilities $77.2 $25.7
Change in Goodwill $0.0 $0.0
Change in Intangible Assets $0.0 $0.0
Change in Prepaid Pension Costs ($60.3) ($30.9)
Change in Other Assets ($41.3) ($21.1)
Change in Deferred Income Taxes $0.0 $0.0
Change in Accrued Pension Costs $0.0 $0.0
Change in Accrued Postretirement Costs $0.0 $0.0
Change in Other Liabilities $0.0 $0.0
Cash Flows from Operations $4,115.4 $4,440.1

Cash Flows from Investing


Capital Expenditures ($1,862.2) ($1,851.0)
Asset Dispostions $0.0 $0.0
Cash Flows from Investing ($1,862.2) ($1,851.0)

Cash Flows from Financing


Revolving Line of Credit ($3,377.2) ($1,829.1)
Long-Term Debt ($297.0) ($760.0)
Deferred Income Taxes $0.0 $0.0
Accrued Pension Costs $0.0 $0.0
Accrued Postretirement Costs $0.0 $0.0
Other Liabilities $0.0 $0.0
Total Cash Flows from Financing ($3,674.2) ($2,589.1)

Total Cash Flow ($1,421.0) $0.0

Beginning Cash Position $1,421.0 $0.0


Change in Cash Position ($1,421.0) $0.0
Ending Cash Position $0.0 $0.0

Cash Flow before Revolver $3,377.2 $1,829.1

Page 5
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Financial Statements

PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS


($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM Sept. 2008 2008P 2009P

Debt and Interest Schedule


Revolver
Beginning Revolver Balance $6,203.3 $2,826.1
(Paydown) / Drawdown ($3,377.2) ($1,829.1)
Ending Revolver Balance $2,826.1 $997.1
Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0%
Interest Expense $270.88 $114.70

Long-Term Debt
Beginning Balance $23,603.0 $23,306.0
(Paydown) / Drawdown ($297.0) ($760.0)
Ending Balance $23,306.0 $22,546.0
Interest Rate 6% 6%
Interest Expense $1,407.27 $1,375.56

Total Interest Expense Reported on Income Statement $1,678.2 $1,490.3

Interest Earned on Cash $28.4 $0.0

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MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Proforma Financial Statements

PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS


($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM Sept. 2008 2008P 2009P
Depreciation and Amortiztion Schedule
Depreciation and Amortization Expense
Kraft $976.0 $993.7 $1,013.6
Kellogg $371.0 $380.0 $391.9
Total $1,347.0 $1,373.7 $1,405.5

New Amortization Expense $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Total D&A $1,347.0 $1,373.7 $1,405.5

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MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
HISTORIC VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTIONS

ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTIONS


Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
LTM PF 2008P 2009P

Depreciation as % of Gross PP&E 5.1% 4.9% 4.7%


Other Income / (Expense) $0.0 0.0% 0.0%
Tax Rate 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Balance Sheet Drivers / Assumptions


Days Accounts Receivable 39 39 39
Days Inventory 56 56 56
Deferred Taxes as % of Revenue 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Other Current Assets 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Goodwill $47,927.6 $47,927.6 $47,927.6
Intangible Assets $14,945.0 $14,945.0 $14,945.0
Prepaid Pension Costs as % of Revenues 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Other Assets as % of Revenues 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Capex Assumptions
Kraft - Capex $1,284.0 $1,365.4 $1,379.1
Kellogg - Capex 3.80% $475.0 $496.8 $471.9
Capex Synergies $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Total Capex $1,759.0 $1,862.2 $1,851.0
Capex as % of Sales 3.2% 3.3% 3.2%
Asset Disposition $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Days Payable 46 46 46
Accrued Marketing as % of COGS 6.1% 6.1% 6.1%
Accrued Income Taxes as % of COGS 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Accrued Employment Costs as % of COGS 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Other Current Liabilities as % of COGS 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Deferred Income Taxes $6,147.0 $6,147.0 $6,147.0
Accrued Pension Costs $771.0 $771.0 $771.0
Accrued Postretirement Costs $2,890.0 $2,890.0 $2,890.0
Other Liabilities $3,206.0 $3,206.0 $3,206.0

Interest Rates
Revolving Line of Credit 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Long-Term Debt 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Interest earned on cash 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%

Page 8
MERGER ANALYSIS - KRAFT ACQUIRES KELLOGG
Synergies Analysis
($ in millions)
Fiscal Year Ending Dec 31,
Revenue LTM PF 2008P 2009P
Kraft $42,684 $43,796 $44,156
Kellogg $12,683 $13,074 $13,484
Synergies $0 $0
% Revenue Increase 0% 0%

COGS (Excludes D&A)


Kraft $28,446 $29,119 $29,231
Kellogg $7,276 $7,564 $7,771
Synergies $0 $0

COGS as % of Sales
Kraft 67% 66% 66%
Kellogg 57% 58% 58%
% COGS Margin Improvement 0% 0%

SG&A Expenses
Kraft $9,398 $9,163 $9,201
Kellogg $3,440 $3,536 $3,707
Synergies $0 $0

SG&A as % of Sales
Kraft 22% 21% 21%
Kellogg 27% 27% 27%
% COGS Margin Improvement 0% 0%

Page 9

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