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A) The History of Probability Theory: Introduction: Part 1

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42 views

A) The History of Probability Theory: Introduction: Part 1

Uploaded by

shitake_miera93
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction: Part 1

a) The history of probability theory

Cardano, the father of probability

Probability theory originally was used for games of chance, or better known as gambling. A
mathematician named Gerolamo Cardano used the theory of probability as a way to analyze games
of chance, and better influence his ‘luck’ in the sixteenth century. Yes,probability was used to
gamble. Cardano is regarded as the father of probability as he wrote a book on that subject. His
book, known as Liber de ludo aleae ("Book on Games of Chance"), was published in 1663, was the
first book to deal with probability systematically, as well as teaching us how to cheat with
probability.
The branch of probability was further expanded upon by two mathematicians, namely Pierre de
Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century. They conducted research on the problem of
points, which is a mathematical problem concerning probability.

Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat (Respectively). They built upon Gerolamo
Cardano’s work.
In 1657, the field of probability was strengthened by
Christiaan Huygens, who, under encouragement from
Pascal, wrote a book on the subject, called De ratiociniisin ludo aleae ("On Reasoning in Games of

Chance"), which he had published in 1657. This is


regarded as the first book on probability theory, since it
was published before Cardano’s book.

Later, the branch of probability evolved into modern


probability theory with the help of Andrey Nikolaevich
Kolmogorov, who laid the foundations of modern
probability. He combined the sample space with the
measure theory, creating his axiom system in 1933. This became the standardized form of
probability measurement, continuing until now.

In our daily life, The Theory of Probability is used in


various occurrences. One real life example is when we
are playing cards, for example Blackjack. There are 52
cards in a deck. Each player receives two cards. The best
pair of cards that one can receive is an Ace and one of
the picture cards. Speaking in terms of probability, if
there are three players, counting the banker, each player
has a 6/169 chance of getting 21 points in the first deal.

Alternatively, the Theory of Probability is used for


business. Probability is used in business to evaluate the
risk in a decision. The higher probability of success
ensures a lower chance of failing.

Probability can help us understand the seemingly random


forces and ensure a risk free environment. Thus it is
important for us to study probability.
b)The difference between
Theoretical and Empirical
probability
Theoretical probability is the branch of probability
concerned with the theory. There is no concrete proof
and all results are based only on calculation.

Empirical probability, as its name suggests, is based on experiments and the results

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