Assignment # 1
Assignment # 1
t#1
1. The manager of a crew that installs carpeting has tracked the crews output
over the past several weeks, obtaining these figures:
Output Material
Week Workers
(units) (pounds)
1 30,000 6 45
2 33,600 7 0
47
3 32,200 7 0
46
4 35,400 8 0
48
0
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of 3
3. A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as
shown below:
a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an
appropriate naive method. (Hint: Plot each data set.)
b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?
4. National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a
seven-month period were as follows:
Mont Sales (000
hFeb. units)
19
Mar. 18
Apr. 15
May 20
Jun. 18
Jul. 22
Aug. 20
a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.
b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:
(1) A linear trend equation.
(2) A five-month moving average.
(3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming
a March forecast of 19(000).
(4) The naive approach.
(5) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.
c. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint: Refer to the plot from
part a.)
Observati x y Observati x y
on 1 15 74 on 8 18 78
2 25 80 9 14 70
3 40 84 10 15 72
4 32 81 11 22 85
5 51 96 12 24 88
6 47 95 13 33 90
7 30 83