Probability: Events and Probabilities

PROBABILITY: long-run relative frequency; likelihood or chance that an outcome will happen.
A probability is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive,

EVENT: An outcome (called a simple event) or Combination of Outcomes (called a compound event)
SAMPLE SPACE: Set of all possible simple events

EXAMPLE 1: TOSSING A FAIR COIN TWICE:

A fair coin has equal probability of landing on Head ( H ) or Tail ( T )
Sample space of outcomes for tossing a coin TWICE: S = { }
Find the probability of getting ONE HEAD in two tosses:

EXAMPLE 2: ROLLING 1 DIE: Sample Space: S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }

Event odd even 2 or 4 number 4 number 3
Event A = {1, 3, 5} B = {2, 4, 6} D = {2, 4} F = {1, 2, 3, 4} T={1, 2, 3}

Probability P(A) = 3 P(B) = P(D) = P(F) = P(T) =

6

EXAMPLE 3: Compound events created using AND, OR, NOT to relate to relate two or more events
AND: A and B means BOTH events A and B occur:
The outcome that occurs satisfies both events A and B .
Event "A and B" includes items in common to both (intersection of) A and B
Event A and F = { } Probability of Event A and F : P(A and F) =

Event D and T = { } Probability of Event D and T : P(D and T) =

OR: A or B means either event A occurs or event B occurs or both occur

Outcome that occurs satisfies event A or event B or both
Event "A OR B" is the union of items from these events.
Event A or F = { } Probability of Event A or F : P(A or F) =

Event D or T = { } Probability of Event D or T : P(D or T) =

NOT: COMPLEMENT A means event A does NOT occur

D = {2, 4} D= P(D) = P(D) + P(D) =

COMPLEMENT RULE: For any event A: P(A) + P(A ) = 1 P(A) = 1 P(A)

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 Event odd even 2 or 4 number 4 number 3
Event A = {1, 3, 5} B = {2, 4, 6} D = {2, 4} F = {1, 2, 3, 4} T={1, 2, 3}

Probability P(A) = 3 P(B) = 3 P(D) = 2 P(F) = 4 P(T) = 3

6 6 6 6 6

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE events are two events that can NOT both happen: P(A and B) = 0
EXAMPLE 4:
List a pair of events above that are mutually exclusive and are not complements ___ , ___
List a pair of events above that are mutually exclusive and are complements: ___ , ___
Are being a part-time and a full-time student at De Anza mutually exclusive? __________
Are being a day student and a night student at De Anza mutually exclusive? __________

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY: given that; if

Probability that event A occurs if we know that outcome B has occurred
We say this as given that:
We write this using a line | that means: given that ; if
P(A|B) = Probability that event A occurs given that outcome B has occurred
P(event| condition)
The outcome that we know has occurred is called the condition. The condition is after the if line.
The condition reduces the sample space to be smaller by eliminating outcomes that did not occur

EXAMPLE 5: TOSSING A FAIR COIN TWICE:

A fair coin has equal probability of landing on Head ( H ) or Tail ( T )
Sample space of outcomes for tossing a coin TWICE: S = { }
Find the probabilities; be careful to use proper notation to indicate conditional probabilities
a) Find the probability of getting TWO HEADS in two tosses of the coin:

b) Find the probability of getting TWO HEADS in two tosses IF WE KNOW THAT (GIVEN THAT) the FIRST
TOSS WAS A HEAD.

c) Find the probability of getting ONE HEAD in two tosses.

d) Find the probability of getting ONE HEAD in two tosses GIVEN THAT the FIRST TOSS WAS A HEAD.

e) Find the probability of getting ONE HEAD in two tosses, GIVEN THAT AT LEAST ONE HEAD was obtained.

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ROLLING 1 DIE: Sample Space: S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Event odd: A = {1, 3, 5} even: B = {2, 4, 6} 4: F = {1, 2, 3, 4} 3: T={1, 2, 3}

Probability P(A) = 3 P(B) = 3 P(F) = 4 P(T) = 3

6 6 6 6

Find the probability of rolling a number 3 GIVEN THAT (if) the outcome is even.
P(T|B) = P(1 or 2 or 3 | 2 or 4 or 6) = 1 { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
3
The "reduced" (smaller) sample space is { 2,4,6 } ; odd numbers were removed from the sample space
EXAMPLE 6: Find the conditional probability and compare to the probability without the condition
a) Use the reduced sample space to find the probability of rolling an odd number given that the outcome is 3.

P(odd | 3 ) = P(A|T) =

P(odd) = P(A) =

b) Use the reduced sample space to find the probability of rolling an even number given that the outcome is 4.

P(even | 4 ) = P(B|F)

P(even) = P(B) =

c) Find the probability of rolling an odd number given that the outcome was even. P(____ | _____) =

Important Observations:
For AND , OR events, the order of listing the events does not matter and can be switched
P( A and B) = P(B and A) P(A or B) = P(B or A)
For CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY the order is important: P(A|B) P(B|A) in most situations.

INDEPENDENT EVENTS:
Conditional probability P(A|B) may be different from or may turn out to be the same as the probability
without the condition P(A
Definitions: Events A and B are independent if the conditional probability is the same as the
probability without the condition: P(A | B) = P(A)
Two events are independent if and only if the probability of one event occurring is
not affected by whether the other event occurs or not.
The chance (probability) that event A occurs is not affected by whether event B occurs or not
Independence means that the "condition B " does not change the probability of event A
Two events are independent if the probability without the condition equals the conditional probability

EXAMPLE 7: Are the events independent? Show justification using probabilities and state your conclusion
a) Are events A= odd number and T = number 3 independent?
From Example 6: P(A | T) = P(A) =
Conclusion: Reason:
b) Are events B = even number and F = number 4 independent?
From Example 6: P(B | F) = P(B) =
Conclusion: Reason:

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EXAMPLE 8 Which of the following describe independent events?

Repeated tosses of a coin _________________________________

Selecting 2 cards consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement _____________________

Selecting 2 cards from a deck of cards, with replacement ________________

The numbers that show on each of two dice when tossed _________________________________

The color of two marbles selected consecutively from a jar of colored marbles, without replacement
_____________________

The color of two marbles selected from a jar of colored marbles, with replacement
_____________________

EXAMPLE 9: Understanding Independence in the context of word problems:

a) SOURCE: http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/indiaatglance.html
In India, adult (15+ years) literacy rates are 82.1% for men and 65.5% for women
The overall literacy rate is estimated as approximately 74%.
Is the literacy rate in India independent of gender? Justify your answer using appropriate probabilities.
Consider the population of residents of India age 15 and over:
Events: F = female M = male L = literate

Note: The literacy rates have improved, particularly for femails:

2011 literacy rates: Overall 74% Male: 82.1% Female: 65.5%
2001 literacy rates: Overall 64.8% Male: 75.3% Female: 53.7%

b) A large chain of discount stores finds that overall 20% of items purchased are returned.
At their San Jose store, 5 in every 25 items purchased are returned
R = event that an item is returned S = event that an item was purchased at their San Jose store
Are events R and S independent? Justify your answer using appropriate probabilities.

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 CONTINGENCY TABLES
A contingency table displays data for two variables. This table shows the number of individuals or
items in each category. We can use the data in the table to find probabilities.
All probabilities EXCEPT conditional probabilities have the grand total in the denominator
Conditional Probabilities: The condition limits you to a particular row or column in the table.
The denominator will be the total for the row or column in the table that corresponds to the condition

EXAMPLE 10: A large car dealership examined a sample of vehicles sold or leased in the past year.
Vehicles were classified by type:
car, SUV, van, truck
whether they were a sale of a new or used vehicle or whether the vehicle was leased.

Car (C) SUV (S) Van (V) Truck(T) Total

New vehicle sale(N) 86 25 21 38 170
Used vehicle sale (U) 39 13 4 22 78
Vehicle Lease (L) 34 12 6 0 52
Total 159 50 31 60 300
Suppose a vehicle in the sample is randomly selected to review its sales or lease papers.
a. Find the probability that the vehicle was leased.

b. Find the probability that a vehicle is a truck.

c. Find the probability that a vehicle is NOT a truck.

d. Find the probability that the vehicle was a car AND was leased.

e. Find the probability that the vehicle was used GIVEN THAT it was a van.

f. Find the probability that the vehicle was a van GIVEN THAT it was used.

PRACTICE Do parts g, h, i at home for practice

g. Find the probability that the vehicle was a car GIVEN THAT it was new.

h. Find the probability that the vehicle was new IF it was a car.

i. Find the probability that the vehicle was new AND was a car.

Addition Rule for OR Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

j. Find the probability that the vehicle was used OR was a van.

k. Find the probability that the vehicle was leased OR was a truck.

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 INDEPENDENCE in CONTINGENCY TABLES

An easy way to check if two events are independent in a contingency table is

Let the column represent the "condition"
Let the row represent the "event"
Compare : P(event in row) to P(event in row | condition in column)
If and only if these probabilities are equal, then the events are independent

EXAMPLE 11: Checking for Independence in Contingency Tables

a. Are the events N and V independent?
Car (C) SUV (S) Van (V) Truck(T) Total
New vehicle sale(N) 86 25 21 38 170
Used vehicle sale (U) 39 13 4 22 78
Vehicle Lease (L) 34 12 6 0 52
Total 159 50 31 60 300
Show your work to justify your answer using appropriate numerical evidence in the probabilities.

P(Event | Condition) = P( ___ | ____) = P(Event) = P( ___ ) =

Conclusion:_________________________________ Reason __________________

b. Are the events S and U independent?

Car (C) SUV (S) Van (V) Truck(T) Total
New vehicle sale(N) 86 25 21 38 170
Used vehicle sale (U) 39 13 4 22 78
Vehicle Lease (L) 34 12 6 0 52
Total 159 50 31 60 300
Show your work to justify your answer using appropriate numerical evidence in the probabilities.

NOTE: A and B are independent if P(A|B) = P( B ) and this also means that P(B|A) = P( B )
It does not matter which is the event and which is the condition. So although I think its easier to use
the column as the condition you could use the row as the condition if you want to.
EXAMPLE 12: PRACTICE: Checking for Independence in Contingency Tables DO AT HOME
From ch. 3, Collaborative Statistics Illowsky, B., & Dean, S. www.cnx.org
Hiking Preference by Gender Near Coastline Near Lakes and Streams Mountains Total
for a sample of 100 hikers (C)
Female (F) 18 16 11 45
Male 16 25 14 55
Total 34 41 25 100
Are the events "being female" and "preferring the coastline" independent?
Show your work to justify your answer using appropriate numerical evidence in the probabilities.

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FOUR PROBABILITY RULES

Complement Rule: P(A) = 1 P(A)

Addition Rule for OR Events:

General Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
IF AND ONLY IF events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Conditional Probability Rule: P(A|B) =P(A AND B) = probability of and event

(given that, if) P(B) probability of condition

Multiplication Rule for AND Events:

General Multiplication Rule: P(A and B) = P(A | B) P(B)
IF AND ONLY IF events are INDEPENDENT: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

EXAMPLE 13: Conditional Probability Rule

In a certain neighborhood: 65 % of residents subscribe to the Mercury News
30% of residents subscribe to the SF Chronicle
These figures include the fact that 20% of residents subscribe to both.
M = person subscribes to the Mercury News C = person subscribes to the Chronicle
Find the probability that a person subscribes to Mercury News given that he/she subscribes to the Chronicle.

EXAMPLE 14: PRACTICE: Conditional Probability Rule DO AT HOME if not done in class
a) At a medical clinic patients can call or use the online website appointment system to make appointments
40% of patients request an urgent appointment
30% of patients use the website appointment system to make appointments
10% of all patients use the website appointment system and request an urgent appointment
U = appointment is urgent W = appointment is made using website
(i) Find the probability that the appointment is urgent given that a patient uses the website.

(ii) Find the probability that a patient uses the website to make an appointment if the appointment is urgent.

EXAMPLE 15: PRACTICE: Conditional Probability Rule DO AT HOME if not done in class
b) At a large company: 34% of employees live over 30 miles away from the company's office
52% of employees sometimes work from home.
28% of employees sometimes work from home AND live over 30 miles away from the office
H = employee sometimes works at home F = employee lives over 30 miles away from the office
Find the probability that an employee sometimes works at home, given that the employee lives over 30
miles away from the company's offices

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 Complement Rule: P(A) = 1 P(A)

Addition Rule for OR Events:

General Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
IF AND ONLY IF events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

EXAMPLE 16: Addition Rule for OR Events

In a certain neighborhood, 65% of residents subscribe to the Mercury News (event M)and 30% of residents
subscribe to the SF Chronicle (event C). These figures include the fact that 20% of residents subscribe to both.
Find the probability that a person subscribes to Mercury News OR the SF Chronicle

Sample Space for sum when rolling 2 dice

EXAMPLE 17: Addition Rule for OR Events 36 possible outcomes
a. When rolling two dice the probability of rolling a sum of 6 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
is 5/36 and the probability of rolling a double is 6/36. (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
The probability of rolling a 6 by rolling a 3 on each die is 1/36. (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
Find the probability of rolling a sum of 6 or a double. (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

b. When rolling two dice the probability of rolling a sum of 3 is 2/36 and the probability of
rolling a double is 6/36. Find the probability of rolling a sum of 3 or a double.

EXAMPLE 18 (CHALLENGE):
In a city, 50% of residents watch the 6PM news and 30% of residents watch the 11PM news.
35% of residents do not watch either the 6PM news or the 11PM news.
S = event that a person watches the 6 pm news ; E = event that a person watches the 11 pm news

(a) Find the probability that a person watches the 6PM news or the 11PM news (or both).

(b) Find the probability that a person watches both the 6PM news and 11 PM news.

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 Conditional Probability Rule: P(A|B) = P(A AND B)
P(B)
Multiplication Rule for AND Events:
General Multiplication Rule (always true): P(A and B) = P(A | B) P(B)
Special Version: IF AND ONLY IF events are INDEPENDENT: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

EXAMPLE 19: http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/indiaatglance.html

India's population is 48.5% female and 51.5% male
Literacy rates are 82.1% for men and 65.5% for women (for adults age 15 and older)
The overall adult literacy rate is estimated as approximately 74%.
F = event that resident of India is female M = event that resident of India is male
L = event that a randomly selected resident of India is literate
Consider the population of residents of India age 15 and over.
Assume the population age 15 and over has the same gender distribution as the whole population.
a. Find the probability that a randomly selected person in India (age 15+) is both literate and female.

b. Find the probability that a randomly selected person in India (age 15+) is literate and male

c. Use the Conditional Probability Rule to find the probability that a randomly selected
resident of India age 15 or over is female, given that the person is literate:

EXAMPLE 20: PRACTICE Multiplication Rule for AND Events DO AT HOME

C = event that person is a child M = event that person lives in poverty
SOURCE: http://www.npc.umich.edu/poverty/ In the US, based on federal poverty level guidelines:

15% of the population live in poverty (are poor). P( ______ ) = _____

24% of the population are children P( ______ ) = _____
22% of children in live in poverty. P( ______ ) = _____
Find the probability that a randomly US resident is a child AND lives in poverty

EXAMPLE 21: Multiplication Rule for AND Events

In a math class, 75% of students pass the quiz (event Q). 60% of students use a print textbook (event T) and
40% use the e-book (event E). Based on data she collected, the instructor has determined that whether a
student passes the quiz is independent of the format the student uses for the textbook.
Find the probability that a student uses the e-book and passes the quiz.

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 Complement Rule: P(A) = 1 P(A)
Conditional Probability Rule: P(A|B) =P(A AND B)
(given that) P(B)

Multiplication Rule for AND Events:

General Multiplication Rule: P(A and B) = P(A | B) P(B)
IF AND ONLY IF events are INDEPENDENT: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

Addition Rule for OR Events:

General Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
IF AND ONLY IF events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

EXAMPLE 22: Practice using All Probability Rules: DO AT HOME

In a class there are male and female students, and students with long or short hair
60% of the students in a class are female. 50% of the students have long hair.
45% of the students are female and have long hair. Of the male students, 12.5% have long hair.
Events: F = student is female M = student is male L = student has long hair
Identify each of these events and probabilities as stated in the words of the problem. Use correct symbols:
60% of the students in a class are female:___________
50% of the students have long hair: ______________
45% of the students are female and have long hair: _____________________
Of the male students, 12.5% have long hair: _____________________
Write the probability statement using proper notation and show the work for each calculation:
a. Find the probability that a student is male.
____________________________ Rule

b. Find the probability that a student has long hair if the student is female.
____________________________ Rule

c. Find the probability that a student is male and has long hair.
____________________________ Rule

d. Find the probability that a student is male or has long hair.

____________________________ Rule

e. What percent of the students with long hair are female?

____________________________ Rule

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 CHECKING IF TWO EVENTS ARE INDEPENDENT
2 methods to check for independence
"Conditional" probability: Compare P(A|B) to P(A) .
If P(A|B)=P(A), the events are independent
"And" probability: Compare P(A and B) to P(A) P(B).
If P(A and B) = P(A) P(B), the events are independent
Do one method only. Both methods always give the same result (if done correctly)
Do whichever is easier with the information you know for the problem.

EXAMPLE 23: Checking for Independence

Are the events of being female and having long hair independent?
A class is 60% female. Event F = student is female
50 % of all students in the class have long hair. Event L = student has long hair
45% of the students are female and have long hair.
75% of the female students have long hair.
Check with Conditional Probabilities:
P(L | F) =_________ P(L) =_________ Does P(L | F ) = P(L)? _________

Check using "AND" probabilities:

P(F and L) =_______ P(F) P(L) =___________________________________
Does P(F and L) = P(F) P(L) ? _________

Conclusion: _______________________________________________________

Note: Using conditional probabilities is easier if the problem tells you both the conditional probability
and the probability without the condition.

EXAMPLE 24: Checking for Independence

From Ch 3, Illowsky, B., & Dean, S. Collaborative Statistics. Connexions, 12/2008 http://cnx.org/content/col10522/1.29

60% of students take a math class and 50% of students take a science class.
30% of students take math class and a science class
Event G = student takes a math class Event H = student takes a science class
Are events G and H independent?
Check using "AND" probabilities:
P(G and H) =_______ P(G) P(H) =_____________________________________
Does P(G and H) = P(G) P(H) ? _______

Conclusion: _______________________________________________________
Note: For this example, we were not told any conditional probabilities.
If we were to test with conditional probability, we first need to use the conditional probability
rule to calculate the conditional probability
For this problem it is easier to test for independence using the "and" probability.
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TREE DIAGRAMS are a useful tool in organizing and solving probability problems

Each complete path through the tree represents a separate mutually exclusive outcome in the sample space.
1. Draw a tree representing the possible mutually exclusive outcomes
2. Assign conditional probabilities along the branches of the tree
3. Multiply probabilities along each complete path through the tree to find probabilities of each "AND"
outcome in the sample space.
4. Add probabilities for the appropriate paths of a tree to find the probability of a compound OR event.

EXAMPLE 25: From Chapter 3 Section 3.7 Tree diagrams in Illowsky, B., & Dean, S. Collaborative Statistics.
Connexions, Dec. 5, 2008. http://cnx.org/content/col10522/1.29
An urn contains 11 marbles, 3 Red and 8 Blue. We are selecting 2 marbles randomly from the urn.
Draw the tree diagram. Show the events and probabilities for each branch and each complete path of the tree.
Select 2 marbles WITH REPLACEMENT:

Find the probability of selecting one marble of each color

Select 2 marbles WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

Find the probability of selecting one marble of each color

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
EXAMPLE 26: A certain virus infects 1% of people.
A test used to detect the virus can give a positive result or a negative result.
The test results are positive 80% of the time IF the person has the virus
For people who do not have the virus, the test results are positive 5% of the time (false positive)
V = event that a person has the virus
Pos = event that the test is positive Neg = event that the test is negative
Do ALL of the following:
(a) Fill in all probabilities along the branches of the tree.
(b) Find and write the event and probability corresponding to each complete path through the tree.
(c) Find the probability a persons test result is positive. Show your work.
Round all probabilities to 3 decimal places (thousandths)

V V

Pos Neg Pos Neg

EXAMPLE 27: In a math class, 75% of students pass the quiz (event Q). 60% of students use a print
textbook (event T) and 40% use the e-book (event E). Based on data she collected, the instructor determined
that whether a student passes the quiz is independent of the format the student uses for the textbook.
Do ALL of the following:
(a) Draw a tree and fill in all probabilities along the branches of the tree.
(b) Find and write the event and probability corresponding to each complete path through the tree.
(c) Find the probability a student passes the quiz and uses the e-book.
(d) Find the probability a student passes the quiz or uses the e-book.
Round all probabilities to 3 decimal places (thousandths)

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