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Notes 5 A

This document discusses techniques for modeling and evaluating the reliability of complex systems. It describes conditional probability, cut set, and network reduction methods. The conditional probability approach calculates overall system reliability based on the probability of success given different component states. The cut set method identifies ways a system could fail by determining all component combinations whose failure would cause system failure. Minimal cut sets are identified and used to calculate the probability of system failure. An example power supply system is evaluated using both network reduction and minimal cut set techniques.

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77 views

Notes 5 A

This document discusses techniques for modeling and evaluating the reliability of complex systems. It describes conditional probability, cut set, and network reduction methods. The conditional probability approach calculates overall system reliability based on the probability of success given different component states. The cut set method identifies ways a system could fail by determining all component combinations whose failure would cause system failure. Minimal cut sets are identified and used to calculate the probability of system failure. An example power supply system is evaluated using both network reduction and minimal cut set techniques.

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sdsds-54
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Network Modelling & Evaluation complex systems

C
output

input
B

System success requires continuity from input to output.

Evaluation Techniques:
- Conditional probability approach
(with Network reduction method)
- Cut set method
- Tie set method
- Tree diagrams (Event Trees, Fault Trees)

Conditional Probability Approach


A

P(SS) = P(SS|E good).P(E good)


+ P(SS|E bad).P(E bad)

RS = RS|E good . RE + RS|E bad . QE

E
B
E good

E bad

Given E is Good:
RS|E good = (1 - QAQB)(1 - QCQD)

Given E is Bad:
RS|E bad = 1 - (1 - RARC)(1 - RBRD)

Overall System Reliability:


RS = (1 - QAQB)(1 - QCQD).RE + [1 - (1 - RARC)(1 - RBRD)].QE

Example:
Calculate the reliability of the system below if all
the individual components have a reliability of 0.98.
input

output

4
6
input

RS = RS|4 good . R4 + RS|4 bad . Q4


Given 4 is good
input

Given 4 is bad
input

6
input

3
output

output
6
input

7
8

RS|4 good = RSS = RSS|3 good . R3 + RSS|3 bad . Q3


Given 3 is good

Given 3 is bad
6

input

input

output

input

output

Cut Set Method


Cut Set:
set of system components which, when failed, causes system failure
set of components which if removed from the network separate the input from
the output
A

C
E

Cut Sets:
AB, CD - 2nd order
ABE, ABC, ABD, ABE, AED, BEC, CDA, CDB, CDE
ABCD, ABCE, ABDE, ACDE, BCDE
ABCDE 5th order

Minimal Cut Set:


any cut set which does not contain any other cut set as a subset
all components of a minimal cut set must fail in order to cause system failure
Minimal Cut Sets:
AB, CD
- 2nd order
AED, BEC 3rd order

Cut Set Method contd..


Minimal Cut Sets:
A and B in parallel, since both must fail for system failure
C1 -> AB
C2 -> CD
C1, C2, C3 and C4 in series
C3 -> AED
since all 4 must be successful for system success
C4 -> BEC

C1

C2

C3

C4

QS = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
- P(C1 C2) - P(C1 C3) - P(C1 C4)
- P(C2 C3) - P(C2 C4) - P(C3 C4)
+ P(C1 C2 C3) + P(C1 C2 C4)
+ P(C1 C3 C4) + P(C2 C3 C4)
- P(C1 C2 C3 C4)

P(C1) = QA.QB
P(C2) = QC.QD
P(C3) = QA.QD.QE
P(C4) = QB.QC.QE

P(C1 C2) = P(C1).P(C2) = QA.QB QC.QD


P(C1 C3) = P(C1).P(C3) = QA.QB QD.QE
P(C1 C4) = P(C1).P(C4) = QA.QB QC.QE
..
P(C3 C4)
= P(C1 C2 C3)
= P(C1 C2 C4) = P(C1 C3 C4)
= P(C2 C3 C4) = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= QA.QB QC.QD .QE

Cut Set Method contd..

QS = QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE


- QA.QB QC.QD - QA.QB QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QE
- QA.QC QD.QE - QB.QC QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QD .QE
+ 4 QA.QB QC.QD .QE
- QA.QB QC.QD .QE
QS = QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE
- QA.QB QC.QD - QA.QB QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QE
- QA.QC QD.QE - QB.QC QD.QE + 2QA.QB QC.QD .QE
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2 +2Q3 5Q4 + 2Q5
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.00020195
RS = 0.99979805

Advantages of Cut Set Method:


- cut sets identify ways in which a system may fail
- approximation can be used to simplify evaluation
- can be easily programmed on a computer
1st Approximation
QS = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
- P(C1 C2) - P(C1 C3) - P(C1 C4)
- P(C2 C3) - P(C2 C4) - P(C3 C4)
+ P(C1 C2 C3) + P(C1 C2 C4)
+ P(C1 C3 C4) + P(C2 C3 C4)
- P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2 +2Q3
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.000202, RS = 0.999798
n

2nd Approximation
Neglect higher order cut sets
(events with very low probabilities)
1st order: none
2nd order: AB, CD
3rd order: ADE, BCE
Neglecting cut sets higher than 2nd order
QS P(C1 C2)
P(C1) + P(C2)
QA.QB + QC.QD
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.0002, RS = 0.9998

For n cut sets, QS = P(Ci)


i=1

Telcom. Repeater Station


Power Supply System
0.10

0.01

DG

Rectifier

3
1
4

Cable

Battery Bank

0.01

0.07

Network Reduction Technique

RX = R2.R3

1
4

QY = QX.Q4
RY = 1 - QX.Q4
= 1 (1-RX).(1-R4)

RS = RY.R1
= 0.98245

0.10

0.01

DG

Rectifier

3
1
4

Battery Bank

Cable
0.01

0.07

Minimal Cutset Approach

For n cut sets, QS = P(Ci)


i=1

Rs = 1 Qs = 0.9823

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