Scribd
Upload
69 views19 pages

The Regional Kendall Test For Trend

The document describes the Regional Kendall test, which is an extension of the Seasonal Kendall test for trend that allows testing for trends across multiple sampling sites in a region. It was used to analyze trends in snowpack chemistry across 17 sites in the Central Rocky Mountains over 12 years. The Regional Kendall test found an overall increasing trend in nitrate concentrations with a p-value of 0.004, though only 3 of the 17 individual sites showed significant increases on their own.

Uploaded by

atif
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
69 views19 pages

The Regional Kendall Test For Trend

The document describes the Regional Kendall test, which is an extension of the Seasonal Kendall test for trend that allows testing for trends across multiple sampling sites in a region. It was used to analyze trends in snowpack chemistry across 17 sites in the Central Rocky Mountains over 12 years. The Regional Kendall test found an overall increasing trend in nitrate concentrations with a p-value of 0.004, though only 3 of the 17 individual sites showed significant increases on their own.

Uploaded by

atif
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 19

The Regional Kendall

Test for Trend


Dennis Helsel
US Geological Survey

Seasonal Kendall test for trend


Most

popular trend test in environmental


studies

Developed

by Hirsch, Smith and Slack at


the USGS in the 1980s

Now

used throughout the world

Used

for many media

Software

available from USGS since 1980s

Seasonal Kendall test for trend


Nonparametric
Detects

test

monotonic trends, not just linear

Provides

a measure of overall slope (rate


of change)

Conducts

trend test within each season,


then combines to form one overall test

Regional Trends ?

Spatial differences may be of more interest than


seasonal differences, especially for ground water
or other media without seasonal sampling

Would like an overall test of whether trends


occur across an entire region composed of
multiple sampling sites

A formal test in addition to visual up and down


arrows at multiple sites on a map

The Regional Kendall test

Substitute location for season and run the


Seasonal Kendall test

Trend is tested at each location, then tests


combined to look for a consistent regional trend

Trends in different directions at different sites


will cancel each other out, leading to a
conclusion of no consistent regional trend

The Regional Kendall test


Assumes

location

similar amounts of data at each

Nonparametric
Provides

a slope estimate at each site, and


one overall for the region

Blatant

test!

knockoff of the Seasonal Kendall

Example
Trends in snowpack chemistry during 1993-2004 in
the Rocky Mountain region, USA

George Ingersoll
USGS

Field Methods

Full snowpack sample

Sites selected free of local activity

Temp & physical characteristics measured

Collected before annual melt begins

Preserved frozen until analyzed for major ions, pH, SC, DOC, mercury,
isotopes Sulfur & Nitrogen

Statistical methods

Computed the Regional Kendall test in each of 3


sub-regions with different storm patterns and
airsheds

54 sites in 3 sub-regions, 12 years

NH4, NO3, SO4, snow depth

Sub-regions evaluated for long-term


trends in NO3
No trend

MT

ID
WY
0.020
Kg/ha/yr

UT
0.032
Kg/ha/yr

Taos SV

CO

Nitrate in snow of the


Central Rocky Mountains

17 measurement locations

3 of the 17
showed
significant
increases in
NO3
concentrations

Site 16

SEN-THIEL-KENDALL LINE solid


OLS LINE dashed
GROUP = 16

11

Variable
Y
YHA T
OLS

10

NITRATE

9
8
7
6
5
1992

1994

1996

1998
year

2000

2002

2004

Nitrate in snow of the


Central Rocky Mountains

17 measurement locations

3 of the 17
showed
significant
increases in
NO3
concentrations

Site 20

SEN-THIEL-KENDALL LINE solid


OLS LINE dashed
GROUP = 20

Variable
Y
YHA T
OLS

10
9

NITRATE

8
7
6
5
4
3
1992

1994

1996

1998
year

2000

2002

2004

Nitrate in snow of the


Central Rocky Mountains

17 measurement locations

3 of the 17
showed
significant
increases in
NO3
concentrations

Site 53

SEN-THIEL-KENDALL LINE solid


OLS LINE dashed
GROUP = 53

20.0

Variable
Y
YHA T
OLS

17.5

NITRATE

15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
1992

1994

1996

1998
year

2000

2002

2004

Nitrate in snow of the


Central Rocky Mountains

17 measurement locations

14 of the 17
showed
insignificant
trends in NO3,
but most were
still increases

Site 28

SEN-THIEL-KENDALL LINE solid


OLS LINE dashed
GROUP = 28

Variable
Y
YHA T
OLS

18

NITRATE

16
14
12
10
8
1992

1994

1996

1998
year

2000

2002

2004

Nitrate in snow of the


Central Rocky Mountains

Significant trends and predominance of increases


(even when not significant) are combined and
evaluated by the Regional Kendall test

Overall
p-value is
0.004

SEN-THIEL-KENDALL LINE solid


OLS LINE dashed
OVERALL TREND

20

Variable
Y1
YHA T
OLS

Regional trend

NITRATE

15

10

0
1992

1994

1996

1998
year

2000

2002

2004

How the Regional Kendall test


works
At each location, the test statistic
S loc = # pluses - # minuses
for all comparisons between measurements
Test statistic for regional trend:
SRK = Sum [S loc]

How the Regional Kendall test


works
Scale

SRK by dividing by its standard


error. The resulting ratio can be fit by a
normal distribution

Look

up p-value

Identical

test

process to the Seasonal Kendall

Adjunct methods to the


Regional Kendall test
Van

Belle and Hughes (1984) proposed a


test for heterogenity of trend are the
trends at individual sites going in the
same direction?

Can

also use with collections of sites to


test for differences between sub-regional
trends (Northern vs. Central vs. Southern
Rocky Mountains)

Availability of Code
USGS Scientific Investigations Report (SIR) 2005 5275
by Helsel, Mueller and Slack
.exe file runs using DOS commands within
Windows
Jim Slacks original code was refurbished to run the
Regional Kendall test, as well as simple Kendalls
tau correlation.
Report and software available online at
http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/sir/sir20055275

You might also like