Foundations of Probability: Part

II
Cyr Emile MLAN, Ph.D.
[email protected]

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 1/25

Counting Rules
Text Reference: Introduction to Probability and Its
Application, Chapter 2.
Reading Assignment: Sections 2.4-2.5, January
28-February 2

When the various outcomes of an experiment are

equally likely, the task of computing probabilities
reduces to counting. However, when the number of
simple events is large, this task of counting the number
of simple events in the sample space and the event of
interest becomes tedious or even impossible.

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 2/25

Counting Techniques
Fundamental Principles of Counting
Our first counting rule applies to any situation in which
an event consists of ordered pairs of objects and we
wish to count the number of such pairs.
Theorem 2.2a:
If the first task of an experiment can result in n1 possible
outcomes and, for each of these such outcomes, the second
task can result in n2 possible outcomes, then there are n1 n2
possible outcomes for the two tasks together.

Example 2.7:

A homeowner doing some remodeling requires the services of both a

plumbing contractor and an electrical contractor. If there are 12
plumbing contractors and 9 electrical contractors available in the
Foundations of Probability: Part II
p. 3/25
area, in how many ways can the contractors be chosen?

Counting Techniques
Solution:
If we denote the plumbers by P1 , . . . , P12 and the electricians by
Q1 , . . . , Q9 , then we wish the number of pairs of the form (Pi , Qj ).
With n1 = 12 and n2 = 9, the product rule yields N = (12)(9) = 108
possible ways of choosing the two types of contractors.

Extension of the Fundamental Principles of

Counting to k tasks
Theorem 2.2b:

Suppose an experiment consists of k ordered tasks and that

the first task can result in n1 possible outcomes; for each
outcome of the first task, the second task can result in n2
possible outcomes;...; for each possible outcome of the first
k 1 task, the k task can result in nk possible outcomes.
Then there are n1 n2 . . . nk possible k-tuples (outcomes of
Foundations of Probability: Part II
p. 4/25
the k ordered tasks).

Counting Techniques
Example 2.8:

The fixed-price dinner at a local restaurant

provides the following choices:
Appetizer : seafood soup or salad or egg rolls or crab rangoon
Entre : baked chicken or sweet and sour chicken or diced
lemon chicken or broiled beef patty or teriyaki beef
or beef with snow pea or beef boneless rib
Desert : ice cream or cheesecake

Solution:
There are four choices of an appetizer. For each choice
of appetizer, there 7 choices of entre, and that for each
of the 4 7 = 28 choices, there are 2 choices for desert.
Hence, a total of 4 7 2 = 56 different meals can be
ordered.
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 5/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.9:
You have just been hired as a book representative for
Prentice Hall. On your first day, you must travel to seven
schools to introduce yourself. How many different
routes are possible?

Solution:
The seven schools are different. Lets call the schools
A, B, C, D, E, F, and G. School A can be visited first,
second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth or seven. So we have
seven choices for school A. We would then have six
choices for school B, five choices for school C, and so
on. Hence, 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 = 5040 different routes are
possible.
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 6/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.10: Passwords
Suppose a local area network requires eight characters
for password. The first character must be a letter, but
the remaining seven characters can either be a letter or
a digit (0 through 9). Lower- and uppercase letters are
considered the same. How many user names are
possible for the local area network?

Solution:
The first task consisting of selecting a letter has 26
possible outcomes. Each of the remaining 7
consecutive task has 36 possible outcomes. Hence,
there are 26 367 different passwords.

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 7/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.9 illustrates a type of counting problem
referred to as a permutation.

Permutations
A permutation is any ordered sequence of r objects taken from a
set of n distinct objects by selecting successively from this set
without replacement so that no element can appear more than once.

Number of Permutations of n Distinct Objects Taken r at a Time

Theorem 2.3:
The number of ordered arrangements or permutations Prn of
r objects chosen from a set n distinct objects r (r n) is
given by
n!
n
Pr = n(n 1)(n 2) (n r + 1) =
,
(n r)!
Foundations of Probability: Part II

where 0! = 1 and n! = n(n 1) 2 1 .

p. 8/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.11: Problem of Repeated Birthdays
Suppose that n people are present in a room. What is
the probability, Pn , that no two persons in the room
celebrate their birthday on the same day?
n

12

16

20

22

23

Pn

.984

.926

.833

.716

.589

.524

.493

Qn

.016

.074

.167

.284

.411

.476

.507

24

28

32

40

48

56

64

Pn

.462

.346

.247

.109

.039

.012

.003

Qn

.538

.654

.753

.891

.961

.988

.997

Pn
Qn

(365)(364)(363) (365 n + 1)
=
.
n
(365)
Foundations of Probability: Part II
= 1 Pn .

p. 9/25

Jokes

It has been proven that the celebration of statistics is

healthy.

Statistics show that those people who

celebrate the most birthdays become
the oldest!

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 10/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.12:
Ten teaching assistants are available for grading papers
in a particular course. The first consists of four
questions, and the professor wishes to select a different
assistant to grade each question (only one assistant per
question). In how many ways can assistants be chosen
to grade the exam?

Solution:
Here n = 10 and r = 4. The number of different grading
assignments is then P410 = (10)(9)(8)(7) = 5040.
The professor has 5040 possible assignments of
graders.

In many situations, the objective is to count the number

of unordered subsets of size k that can be formed from
a set consisting of n distinct objects. Here the order is
Foundations of Probability: Part II
p. 11/25
not important.

Counting Techniques
Combinations
Given a set of n distinct objects, any unordered
subset of size r of the objects taken without
replacement is called a combination.

Number of Combinations of n Distinct

Objects Taken r at a Time
Theorem 2.4:
The number of distinct subsets or combinations of size r that
can be formed from n distinct objects chosen from a set n
distinct objects (r n) is given by
 
n
n!
n
Cr =
=
r
r!(n r)!
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 12/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.13: Connecticut Lotto
Most states conduct lotteries as a means of raising revenue. In
Connecticuts lottery, a player selects six number from 1 to 44. For
each drawing, white balls numbered from 1 to 44 are placed in a
hopper. Six balls are drawn from the hopper at random and without
replacement. To win the jackpot, all six of the players numbers must
match those drawn in any order. To win something, at least four of
the players numbers must match those drawn in any order.
a.

What is the probability of winning the jackpot?

b.

What is the probability of winning something?

Solution:
Balls are drawn at random and without replacement. In
addition, the order in which the balls are drawn does not
matter. Thus, the number of potential winning number is
44

6 = 7, 059, 052.
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 13/25

Counting Techniques
a.

P (all 6 winning numbers) =

44 =
6

b.

1
7, 059, 052

P (at least 4 winning numbers) = P (4 winning numbers) +

P (5 winning numbers) +
P (6 winning numbers)








6 38
6 38
6
4
2 + 5
1 + 6


=
44
6

38
0

10545 + 228 + 1
7, 059, 052
10774
= 0.001526267
7, 059, 052

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 14/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.14: Acceptance Sampling
Suppose you have received a shipment of 100 televisions. Although
you dont know this, 6 are defective. To determine whether you will
accept the shipment, you randomly select 5 televisions and test them.
If all 5 televisions work, you will accept the shipment; otherwise the
shipment is reject. What is the probability of accepting the shipment.

Solution:
There are 100 televisions of which we must select 5 at random and
without replacement. In addition the order does not matter. Thus


100
there are 5 = 75, 287, 520 ways of selecting 5 television. To accept
the shipment all 5 televisions must come from the pool of 94
non-defective television. Thus the probability of accepting the



shipment is
6 94
54, 891, 018
0
5

=
0.7291
100
75,
287,
520
5
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 15/25

Counting Techniques
Example 2.15:
A closet contains 8 pairs of shoes. If 4 shoes are
randomly selected, what is the probability that there will
be
a. no complete pairs?
b. exactly 1 complete pair?

Solution:
There is a total of 16 shoes of which we must select 4 at
random and without replacement. In addition the order
16

does not matter. Thus there are 4 = 1820 ways of
selecting 4 shoes (this is the size of the sample space).
a. To obtain an incomplete pair, one would have to
select 4 pairs of shoes and in each pair one would
have to select one shoe. Thus,
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 16/25

Counting Techniques

P (no complete pair) =

8
2
2
2
2

4 1 1 1 1
16

4

8
1120
=
=
61.54%
1820
13
b.

To obtain exactly one complete pair, one would have

to select 1 complete pair of shoe and from the 7
remaining pairs of shoes one would have to select 2
no complete pairs. Thus,
8
2
7
2
2

P (exactly one complete pair) =

2 1
16

4

24
672
=
=
36.92%
1820
65

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 17/25

Counting Techniques
Theorem 2.5:
The number of ways of partitioning n distinct objects into
k groups containing n1 , . . . , nk objects respectively, where
Pk
each object appears in exactly one group and i=1 ni = n,
is


The terms

n
n1 n2 nk

n
n1 n2 nk

n!
=
.
n1 !n2 ! nk

are called multinomial coefficients.

Example 2.16:

How many different vertical arrangements are there of

Probability: Part II
p. 18/25
10 flags if 5 are white, 3 Foundations
are blue, of
and
2 are red?

Counting Rules
Solution:
10!
There are
=
= 2520 different vertical
5! 3! 2!
arrangements of 10 flags.
10

53 2

Example 2.17:
How many different distinguishable strings of letters can
be formed by using all the letters in the word
STATISTICS?

Solution:
Each string formed with will have letters: three Ss,
three Ts, two Is, one A, one C. Hence, the numbers of
choices is


10
10!
=
= 50400
3! 3! 2! 1! 1!
33 211
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 19/25

Counting Rules
Example 2.18:
A labor dispute has arisen concerning the distribution of 20
laborers to four different construction jobs. The first job
(considered to be very undesirable) required 6 laborers; the
second, third, and fourth utilized 4,5, and 5 laborers, resp. The
dispute arose over an alleged random distribution of the
laborers to the jobs that placed all 4 members of a particular
ethnic group on job 1. In considering whether the assignment
represented injustice, a mediation panel desired the probability
of the observed event.
(a)

Determine the number of sample points in the sample

space.

(b)

Find the probability of the observed event if it is assumed

that the laborers are randomly assigned to jobs.
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 20/25

Counting Rules
Solution:
(a)

(b)

The number of ways of assigning the 20 laborers to the four

jobs is equal to the number of ways of partitioning the 20
into four groups of sizes n1 = 6, n2 = 4, n3 = n4 = 5. Then


20
N = 6455 .

Let A denote the event 4 members of a particular ethnic

group on job 1. Then the number of sample in A, nA , is the
number of ways of assigning laborers to the four jobs with
the 4 members of the ethnic group all going to job 1 and the
remaining 16 laborers in the remaining jobs. So,


16
nA = 2 4 5 5 . It follows that
nA
P (A) =
= 0.0031 .
N
Foundations of Probability: Part II
This is extremely unlikely.
Therefore, there is reason to
doubt that the jobs were randomly assigned.

p. 21/25

Counting Rules
We now consider the case where order is not important
and sampling is carried out with replacement.
Theorem 2.6:
The number of ways of making r selections from n objects
when selection is made with replacement and order is not
important is


n+r1
r

Example 2.19: Lottery

In another lottery, a player selects six number between 1 to 44 and

the same number may be chosen more than once. For each drawing,
white balls numbered from 1 to 44 are placed in a hopper. Six balls
Foundations of Probability: Part II
p. 22/25
are drawn from the hopper at random and with replacement.

Counting Techniques
Example 2.19: Lottery
Sufficient time is allowed between selections of a ball for the
previously selected ball to be mixed with the others. To win the
jackpot, all six of the players numbers must match those drawn in
any order. What is the probability of winning the jackpot?

Solution:
Balls are drawn at random and with replacement. In
addition, the order in which the balls are drawn does not
matter. Thus, the number of potential winning number is
44+61

49

= 6 = 13, 983, 816. Hence,
6
1

1
P (all 6 winning numbers) = 49
=
13, 983, 816
6
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 23/25

Counting Rules
All counting rule can be summarized in the table below

Table 1:

Counting the number of ways to select r items from n

Order is Important

n+r1
r

With Replacement

Without Replacement

Order Is Not Important

Prn

n!
=
(n r)!

Crn

n
r

n!
=
r!(n r)!

Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 24/25

Joke on Probability

If pro is the opposite of con, is

progress the opposite of
congress?
Why is it that when you transport
something by car, its called a
shipment, but when you
transport something by ship its
called a cargo?
Foundations of Probability: Part II

p. 25/25