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Exponential Smoothing With Trend Alpha 0.01 Beta 0.01

Exponential smoothing is used to forecast demand over a 9 quarter period. The forecast is updated each quarter using the actual demand from the previous quarter and forecasts are also adjusted based on a trend value. Over the 9 quarters, the smoothed forecast including trend gets closer to the actual demand values though errors still exist, with the largest errors occurring later in the period.

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AizaButt
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16 views

Exponential Smoothing With Trend Alpha 0.01 Beta 0.01

Exponential smoothing is used to forecast demand over a 9 quarter period. The forecast is updated each quarter using the actual demand from the previous quarter and forecasts are also adjusted based on a trend value. Over the 9 quarters, the smoothed forecast including trend gets closer to the actual demand values though errors still exist, with the largest errors occurring later in the period.

Uploaded by

AizaButt
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exponential Smoothing with Trend

alpha
0.01
beta
0.01

Quarter

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Actual
Demand
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182

Smoothed
Forecast
Smoothed
Forecast
including
Trend, T
Average, F
Trend, FIT

error

square
error

150
20
170
170.1
20.001
190.101
189.87999 19.9987899 209.87878
209.369992 19.99370202 229.363694
228.820057 19.98826565 248.808323
248.22024 19.98238482 268.202624
267.570598 19.97606456 287.546663
286.471196 19.96530989 306.436506
305.192141 19.95286624 325.145007

10
-22.101
-50.87878
-54.36369
-58.80832
-63.20262
-107.5467
-124.4365
-325.145

100
488.4542
2588.65
2955.411
3458.419
3994.572
11566.28
15484.44
105719.3

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