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Case - Tottenham Analysis

This document summarizes the financial performance of a sports franchise over 13 years from 2007 to 2020. It provides details on revenue sources like attendance, sponsorship, broadcast rights etc. It also breaks down operating costs into payroll, stadium expenses and other costs. The summary shows metrics like EBITDA, net income, cash flow and terminal value calculations to arrive at an enterprise value for the franchise. Incremental revenues and costs from factors like increased attendance and player transfers are also accounted for to assess their impact on the overall valuation.

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JakeJohnson
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1K views20 pages

Case - Tottenham Analysis

This document summarizes the financial performance of a sports franchise over 13 years from 2007 to 2020. It provides details on revenue sources like attendance, sponsorship, broadcast rights etc. It also breaks down operating costs into payroll, stadium expenses and other costs. The summary shows metrics like EBITDA, net income, cash flow and terminal value calculations to arrive at an enterprise value for the franchise. Incremental revenues and costs from factors like increased attendance and player transfers are also accounted for to assess their impact on the overall valuation.

Uploaded by

JakeJohnson
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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0

2007

1
2008

2
2009

Revenue
Attendance
Sponsorship
Broadcast
Merchandise
Other
Total

17.40
15.70
28.70
5.20
7.10
74.10

18.97
17.11
31.28
5.67
7.74
80.77

20.67
18.65
34.10
6.18
8.44
88.04

Operating Costs
Payroll
Stadium Operating Expenses
Other
Total

50.92
16.38
1.80
69.10

56.01
17.04
1.87
74.92

61.62
17.72
1.95
81.29

5.00
2.20
2.80
2.26
0.19
0.35

5.85
2.29
3.56
2.46
0.38
0.71

6.75
2.38
4.37
2.69
0.59
1.10

3.30
-43.24

3.43
-47.13
-3.89

3.57
-51.37
-4.24

5.06

5.89

0.91
4.60

0.82
4.86

EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Net Income
CAPEX
NWC
NWC
FCF
Terminal Value (@ g=2%)
Discount Rate
Discount Factor
PV(FCF)
Enterprise Value
Net Debt
Market Value of Equity
Price/Share

10.11%
1.00
143.24
16.79
126.45
13.61

3
2010

4
2011

5
2012

6
2013

7
2014

8
2015

22.53
20.33
37.17
6.73
9.19
95.95

24.56
22.16
40.51
7.34
10.02
104.59

26.77
24.16
44.16
8.00
10.92
114.01

29.18
26.33
48.13
8.72
11.91
124.27

31.81
28.70
52.46
9.51
12.98
135.46

34.67
31.28
57.19
10.36
14.15
147.65

67.78
18.43
2.02
88.23

74.56
19.16
2.11
95.83

82.01
19.93
2.19
104.13

90.21
20.73
2.28
113.22

99.23
21.55
2.37
123.15

109.16
22.42
2.46
134.04

7.72
2.47
5.25
2.93
0.81
1.51

8.76
2.57
6.19
3.19
1.05
1.95

9.88
2.68
7.20
3.48
1.30
2.42

11.05
2.78
8.27
3.79
1.57
2.91

12.31
2.90
9.41
4.13
1.85
3.43

13.61
3.01
10.60
4.50
2.13
3.96

3.71
-56.00
-4.62

3.86
-61.04
-5.04

4.01
-66.53
-5.49

4.18
-72.52
-5.99

4.34
-79.04
-6.53

4.52
-86.16
-7.11

6.80

7.77

8.84

9.97

11.20

12.50

0.75
5.09

0.68
5.29

0.62
5.46

0.56
5.59

0.51
5.71

0.46
5.79

9
2016

10
2017

11
2018

12
2019

13
2020

37.79
34.10
62.33
11.29
15.42
160.93

41.19
37.17
67.94
12.31
16.81
175.42

44.90
40.51
74.06
13.42
18.32
191.21

48.94
44.16
80.72
14.63
19.97
208.42

50.90
45.93
83.95
15.21
20.77
216.76

120.07
23.31
2.56
145.94

132.08
24.25
2.66
158.99

145.29
25.22
2.77
173.28

159.82
26.22
2.88
188.92

166.21
27.27
3.00
196.48

14.99
3.13
11.86
4.91
2.43
4.52

16.43
3.26
13.17
5.35
2.74
5.09

17.93
3.39
14.54
5.83
3.05
5.66

19.50
3.52
15.98
6.36
3.37
6.25

20.28
3.66
16.62
6.93
3.39
6.30

4.70
-93.91
-7.75

4.88
-102.36
-8.45

5.08
-111.58
-9.21

5.28
-121.62
-10.04

5.49
-132.57
-10.95

13.90

15.39

16.97

18.67

19.92
250.57

0.42
5.84

0.38
5.87

0.35
5.89

0.31
5.88

0.29
77.37

Team
Manchester United
Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
Newcastle United
Tottenham Hotspur
Everton
Aston Villa

EV/Revenue
5.53
4.39
2.24
2.37
1.92
2.08
1.83
1.80

EV/Points
11.39
7.64
4.66
4.34
3.15
3.06
2.16
1.76

EV
934
588
345
291
167
156
106
90

Revenue
169
134
154
123
87
75
58
50

Avg. Points
82
77
74
67
53
51
49
51

Avg of All
Avg of All Excl Tott
Avg of All Excl Tott & Top 2
Avg of All Excl Tott & Top 3
Med of All Excl Tottenham
Med of All Excl Tott & Top 2
Med of All Excl Tott & Top 3

Multiple
EV/Revenue
2.77
2.87
2.03
1.98
2.24
1.92
1.87

Multiple
EV/Points
4.77
5.02
3.22
2.86
4.34
3.15
2.66

Implied Share Price


Revenue
Points
20.54
24.39
21.34
25.73
14.59
15.85
14.16
13.87
16.28
22.04
13.69
15.49
13.32
12.78

0
2007
Revenue
Attendance
Incremental Attendance
Sponsorship
Incremental Sponsorship
Broadcast
Merchandise
Other
Total

1
2008

2
2009

17.40

18.97

20.67

15.70

17.11

18.65

28.70
5.20
7.10
74.10

31.28
5.67
7.74
80.77

34.10
6.18
8.44
88.04

50.92
16.38

56.01
17.04

61.62
17.72

1.80
69.10

1.87
74.92

1.95
81.29

EBITDA
Depreciation
Incremental Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Net Income

5.00
2.20

5.85
2.29

6.75
2.38

2.80
2.26
0.19
0.35

3.56
2.46
0.38
0.71

4.37
2.69
0.59
1.10

CAPEX
Incremental CAPEX
NWC
NWC

3.30

Operating Costs
Payroll
Stadium Operating Expenses
Incremental Opex
Other
Total

FCF
Terminal Value (@ g=2%)
Discount Rate
Discount Factor
PV(FCF)
EV (with stadium)
EV (without stadium)
NPV (stadium)

(43.24)

10.11%
1.00
86.76
143.24
(56.48)

3.43
125.00
(47.13)
(3.89)

3.57
125.00
(51.37)
(4.24)

(119.94)

(119.11)

0.91
(108.93)

0.82
(98.24)

3
2010

4
2011

5
2012

6
2013

7
2014

8
2015

22.53
9.01
20.33
4.07
37.17
6.73
9.19
109.03

24.56
9.82
22.16
4.43
40.51
7.34
10.02
118.85

26.77
10.71
24.16
4.83
44.16
8.00
10.92
129.55

29.18
11.67
26.33
5.27
48.13
8.72
11.91
141.21

31.81
12.72
28.70
5.74
52.46
9.51
12.98
153.92

34.67
13.87
31.28
6.26
57.19
10.36
14.15
167.77

67.78
18.43
2.58
2.02
90.81

74.56
19.16
2.68
2.11
98.51

82.01
19.93
2.79
2.19
106.92

90.21
20.73
2.90
2.28
116.12

99.23
21.55
3.02
2.37
126.17

109.16
22.42
3.14
2.46
137.18

18.22
2.47
25.00
(9.26)
2.93
(4.26)
(7.92)

20.33
2.57
25.00
(7.24)
3.19
(3.65)
(6.78)

22.63
2.68
25.00
(5.05)
3.48
(2.98)
(5.54)

25.09
2.78
25.00
(2.70)
3.79
(2.27)
(4.22)

27.76
2.90
25.00
(0.14)
4.13
(1.49)
(2.78)

30.60
3.01
25.00
2.58
4.50
(0.67)
(1.25)

3.71

3.86

4.01

4.18

4.34

4.52

(56.00)
(4.62)

(61.04)
(5.04)

(66.53)
(5.49)

(72.52)
(5.99)

(79.04)
(6.53)

(86.16)
(7.11)

22.37

24.05

25.87

27.84

29.99

32.29

0.75
16.76

0.68
16.36

0.62
15.99

0.56
15.62

0.51
15.29

0.46
14.95

9
2016

10
2017

11
2018

12
2019

13
2020

37.79
15.12
34.10
6.82
62.33
11.29
15.42
182.87

41.19
16.48
37.17
7.43
67.94
12.31
16.81
199.33

44.90
17.96
40.51
8.10
74.06
13.42
18.32
217.27

48.94
19.58
44.16
8.83
80.72
14.63
19.97
236.83

50.90
20.36
45.93
9.19
83.95
15.21
20.77
246.31

120.07
23.31
3.26
2.56
149.20

132.08
24.25
3.40
2.66
162.39

145.29
25.22
3.53
2.77
176.81

159.82
26.22
3.67
2.88
192.59

166.21
27.27
3.82
3.00
200.30

33.66
3.13
25.00
5.53
4.91
0.22
0.40

36.95
3.26
25.00
8.69
5.35
1.17
2.17

40.46
3.39
25.00
12.07
5.83
2.18
4.06

44.24
3.52
25.00
15.71
6.36
3.28
6.08

46.01
3.66

4.70

4.88

5.08

5.28

5.49

(93.91)
(7.75)

(102.36)
(8.45)

(111.58)
(9.21)

(121.62)
(10.04)

42.35
6.93
12.40
23.02

(132.57)
(10.95)

34.78

37.47

40.37

43.50

36.64
460.99

0.42
14.62

0.38
14.31

0.35
14.00

0.31
13.70

0.29
142.34

0
2007
Revenue
Attendance
Sponsorship
Broadcast
Merchandise
Other
Total
Incremental Revenue
Total Revenue
Operating Costs
Payroll
Incremental Salary
Incremental Transfer Fee
Stadium Operating Expenses
Other
Total
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Net Income
CAPEX
ONWC
ONWC
FCF
Terminal Value (@ g=2%)
Discount Rate
Discount Factor
PV(FCF)
EV (with new player)
EV (without new player)
NPV (new player)

17.40
15.70
28.70
5.20
7.10
74.10
74.10

50.92

16.38
1.80
69.10
5.00
2.20
2.80
2.26
0.19
0.35
3.30
(43.24)

10.11%
1.00
145.47
143.24
2.23

1
2008

2
2009

18.97
17.11
31.28
5.67
7.74
80.77
3.93
84.70

20.67
18.65
34.10
6.18
8.44
88.04
4.28
92.32

56.01
2.60
20.00
17.04
1.87
97.52

61.62
2.86

(12.82)
2.29
(15.11)
2.46
(6.15)
(11.42)
3.43
(47.13)
(3.89)

17.72
1.95
84.15
8.17
2.38
5.79
2.69
1.09
2.02
3.57
(51.37)
(4.24)

(7.07)

6.82

0.91
(6.42)

0.82
5.62

3
2010

4
2011

5
2012

6
2013

7
2014

8
2015

22.53
20.33
37.17
6.73
9.19
95.95
4.67
100.62

24.56
22.16
40.51
7.34
10.02
104.59
5.09
109.68

26.77
24.16
44.16
8.00
10.92
114.01
5.55
119.56

29.18
26.33
48.13
8.72
11.91
124.27
6.04
130.31

31.81
28.70
52.46
9.51
12.98
135.46
6.59
142.05

34.67
31.28
57.19
10.36
14.15
147.65
7.18
154.83

67.78
3.15

74.56
3.46

82.01
3.81

90.21
4.19

99.23
4.61

109.16
5.07

18.43
2.02
91.38

19.16
2.11
99.29

19.93
2.19
107.94

20.73
2.28
117.41

21.55
2.37
127.76

22.42
2.46
139.11

9.24
2.47
6.77
2.93
1.34
2.50

10.39
2.57
7.81
3.19
1.62
3.00

11.62
2.68
8.94
3.48
1.91
3.55

12.91
2.78
10.12
3.79
2.22
4.12

14.29
2.90
11.40
4.13
2.54
4.72

15.73
3.01
12.71
4.50
2.87
5.34

3.86
(61.04)
(5.04)

4.01
(66.53)
(5.49)

4.18
(72.52)
(5.99)

4.34
(79.04)
(6.53)

4.52
(86.16)
(7.11)

3.71
(56.00)
(4.62)
7.78

8.83

9.97

11.18

12.49

13.87

0.75
5.83

0.68
6.01

0.62
6.16

0.56
6.27

0.51
6.36

0.46
6.42

9
2016

10
2017

11
2018

12
2019

13
2020

37.79
34.10
62.33
11.29
15.42
160.93
7.83
168.76

41.19
37.17
67.94
12.31
16.81
175.42
8.53
183.95

44.90
40.51
74.06
13.42
18.32
191.21
9.30
200.51

48.94
44.16
80.72
14.63
19.97
208.42
10.14
218.56

50.90
45.93
83.95
15.21
20.77
216.76
10.54
227.30

120.07
5.57

132.08
6.13

145.29
6.74

159.82
7.42

166.21
8.16

23.31
2.56
151.51

24.25
2.66
165.12

25.22
2.77
180.02

26.22
2.88
196.34

27.27
3.00
204.64

17.24
3.13
14.11
4.91
3.22
5.98

18.83
3.26
15.58
5.35
3.58
6.65

20.49
3.39
17.10
5.83
3.94
7.32

22.22
3.52
18.70
6.36
4.32
8.02

22.66
3.66
19.00
6.93
4.22
7.85

4.70
(93.91)
(7.75)

4.88
(102.36)
(8.45)

5.08
(111.58)
(9.21)

5.28
(121.62)
(10.04)

5.49
(132.57)
(10.95)

15.36

16.95

18.63

20.43

21.46
270.06

0.42
6.46

0.38
6.47

0.35
6.46

0.31
6.44

0.29
83.39

0
2007
Revenue
Attendance
Incremental Attendance
Sponsorship
Incremental Sponsorship
Broadcast
Merchandise
Other
Total
Incremental Revenue
Total Revenue
Operating Costs
Payroll
Incremental Salary
Incremental Transfer Fee
Stadium Operating Expenses
Incremental Opex
Other
Total

1
2008

2
2009

17.40

18.97

20.67

15.70

17.11

18.65

28.70
5.20
7.10
74.10

31.28
5.67
7.74
80.77
3.93
84.70

34.10
6.18
8.44
88.04
4.28
92.32

61.62
2.86

16.38

56.01
2.60
20.00
17.04

1.80
69.10

1.87
97.52

1.95
84.15

74.10

50.92

17.72

EBITDA
Depreciation
Incremental Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Net Income

5.00
2.20

(12.82)
2.29

8.17
2.38

2.80
2.26
0.19
0.35

(15.11)
2.46
(6.15)
(11.42)

5.79
2.69
1.09
2.02

CAPEX
Incremental CAPEX
NWC
NWC

3.30

3.43
125.00
(47.13)
(3.89)

3.57
125.00
(51.37)
(4.24)

(132.07)

(118.18)

0.91
(119.95)

0.82
(97.48)

FCF
Terminal Value (@ g=2%)
Discount Rate
Discount Factor
PV(FCF)
EV with stadium and player
EV without either

(43.24)

10.11%
1.00
260.40
143.24

NPV (stadium and player)

117.16

3
2010

4
2011

5
2012

6
2013

7
2014

8
2015

22.53
9.01
20.33
4.07
37.17
6.73
9.19
109.03
21.21
130.24

24.56
9.82
22.16
4.43
40.51
7.34
10.02
118.85
23.12
141.97

26.77
10.71
24.16
4.83
44.16
8.00
10.92
129.55
25.21
154.76

29.18
11.67
26.33
5.27
48.13
8.72
11.91
141.21
27.47
168.68

31.81
12.72
28.70
5.74
52.46
9.51
12.98
153.92
29.95
183.87

34.67
13.87
31.28
6.26
57.19
10.36
14.15
167.77
32.64
200.42

67.78
3.15

74.56
3.46

82.01
3.81

90.21
4.19

99.23
4.61

109.16
5.07

18.43
2.58
2.02
93.96

19.16
2.68
2.11
101.97

19.93
2.79
2.19
110.73

20.73
2.90
2.28
120.31

21.55
3.02
2.37
130.77

22.42
3.14
2.46
142.25

36.28
2.47
25.00
8.81
2.93
2.06
3.82

40.00
2.57
25.00
12.42
3.19
3.23
6.00

44.03
2.68
25.00
16.35
3.48
4.51
8.37

48.37
2.78
25.00
20.59
3.79
5.88
10.92

53.10
2.90
25.00
25.20
4.13
7.38
13.70

58.17
3.01
25.00
30.16
4.50
8.98
16.68

3.71

3.86

4.01

4.18

4.34

4.52

(56.00)
(4.62)

(61.04)
(5.04)

(66.53)
(5.49)

(72.52)
(5.99)

(79.04)
(6.53)

(86.16)
(7.11)

34.11

36.83

39.78

42.98

46.46

50.21

0.75
25.55

0.68
25.06

0.62
24.58

0.56
24.12

0.51
23.68

0.46
23.24

9
2016

10
2017

11
2018

12
2019

13
2020

37.79
15.12
34.10
6.82
62.33
11.29
15.42
182.87
35.58
218.44

41.19
16.48
37.17
7.43
67.94
12.31
16.81
199.33
38.78
238.11

44.90
17.96
40.51
8.10
74.06
13.42
18.32
217.27
42.27
259.54

48.94
19.58
44.16
8.83
80.72
14.63
19.97
236.83
46.08
282.91

50.90
20.36
45.93
9.19
83.95
15.21
20.77
246.31
47.92
294.23

120.07
5.57

132.08
6.13

145.29
6.74

159.82
7.42

166.21
8.16

23.31
3.26
2.56
154.78

24.25
3.40
2.66
168.52

25.22
3.53
2.77
183.55

26.22
3.67
2.88
200.01

27.27
3.82
3.00
208.46

63.67
3.13
25.00
35.54
4.91
10.72
19.91

69.60
3.26
25.00
41.34
5.35
12.60
23.39

75.99
3.39
25.00
47.60
5.83
14.62
27.15

82.90
3.52
25.00
54.37
6.36
16.81
31.21

85.77
3.66

4.70

4.88

5.08

5.28

5.49

(93.91)
(7.75)

(102.36)
(8.45)

(111.58)
(9.21)

(121.62)
(10.04)

82.11
6.93
26.31
48.87

(132.57)
(10.95)

54.29

58.69

63.46

68.62

62.48
786.17

0.42
22.82

0.38
22.41

0.35
22.01

0.31
21.61

0.29
242.74

Risk-free rate
Tottenham equity beta
Market risk premium
Cost of debt
Tax rate
Terminal growth rate
# shares outstanding
Net debt

Stadium
Attendance rev increase
Sponsorship rev increase
Stadium op exp increase

4.57%
1.29
5%
5%
35%
2%
9.29
16.79

0.4
0.2
0.14

Manchester United
Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
Newcastle United
Tottenham Hotspur
Everton
Aston Villa
0.68

Avg Points
82
77
74
67
53
51
49
51

Net Goals
42.7
38.1
33.9
24.6
2.3
-1.9
-4.9
0

5
3
7
14
2
2
-2

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