Simkin 2006
Simkin 2006
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34
FIGURE 1 A scatter plot3 of fame versus achievement for 392 German WWI
aces. The correlation coefficient of 0.72 suggests that 0.722 52% of the variation in fame is explained by the variation in achievement. The straight line is
the fit using Eq. 2 with b 0.074.
2
The complete list of used filter words is: flying, pilot, ace, flieger, Jasta, Fokker, and
WWI.
3
There are many aces with identical values of both achievement and fame. Therefore
for display purposes random numbers between zero and one were added to every value of
achievement and fame. This way the scatter plot represents the true density of the data
points.
Theory of Aces
35
dA
dF
bF
leads to:
a
pF Fc ;
b
a
c1 :
b
36
The data used in the paper were collected around May 2003. Todays numbers of
Google hits are different.
Theory of Aces
37
38
achievement (which thus plays the role of memes Darwinian fitness). The rate of the spread of a meme about someone with
achievement A is thus:
s nA:
Here n is an unknown independent of A coefficient, which comprises the effects of all factors other than achievement on meme
spread. The expectation value of the number of memes obeys the
following evolution equation:
dhFi
shFi nAhFi:
dt
If at time 0 there was only one copy of the meme the solution of
Eq. (5) is
hFti exp nt A;
b nt:
Theory of Aces
39
c1
a
nt
expst1 expst
It can be verified by induction that the probability to have F copies
of the meme at time t is:
pF t expst1 expstF1
After substituting Equations (5) and (8) into Eq. (9), we get:
pF A expbA1 expbAF1
10
Using Eq. (10) we can obtain the exact formula for the distribution
of fame in our model: see Appendix A.
The above derivation is almost identical to the one, used by Yule to
explain the power law in the frequency distribution of sizes of biological genera. Yule, 1925 considered two types of mutations: specific,
which lead to a new specie and occur at rate s, and generic, which
leads to a new genus and occur at rate g. The total number of genera
grows with time as exp(g t). Therefore the number of genera of age
t is proportional to exp(g t). The number of species in a genus of
age t is / exp(s t). The problem is identical to ours with achievement,
40
APPENDIX A
To obtain the distribution of fame we integrate the product of the
distribution of achievement (Eq. (2)) and conditional probability of
fame given the value of achievement (Eq. (8)):
pF
dApF ApA
dxxb 1 xF1 B
b 0
b
b
a
a C b 1 CF
b C a1F
b
Here B and C are Eulers Beta and Gamma functions. Using known
properties of C function one can obtain the large F asymptotic of the
above:
a
1
C
a
b
pF /
a
b F b1
APPENDIX B
The problem of finding distribution of fame when the value of achievement is fixed is identical to that of finding degree distribution of nodes
of the same age in a growing network. Krapivsky & Redner, 2001 solved
this problem (see section IV.A of their paper) and found the distribution
Theory of Aces
41
to be exponential in agreement with our results. Note that our derivation, which followed that of Yule, is simpler.
The problem of finding distribution of fame for all values of achievement is identical to that of finding degree distribution of nodes of the
same age in a growing network, in which the nodes have exponentially
distributed multiplicative fitness. Such network was studied using
numerical simulations in, (Bianconi & Barabasi, 2001) but no analytical results were obtained. One can use results of this paper to show
that the degree distribution of nodes of the same age in such network
obeys a power law.
Our results are also relevant to theory of citing. Redner (1998)
observed that the distribution of citations to papers published during one year and cited next 17 years follows a power law. This
observation cannot be explained by a cumulative advantage model
(Yule, 1925; Simon, 1955; Price, 1976), in which the rate of citing
a particular paper is proportional to the number of citations it
had already received. Krapivsky and Redner (2001) have shown that
cumulative advantage leads to exponential distribution of citations
to papers of the same age. The results of the present paper suggest
that Redners observation can be explained by a cumulative advantage model with multiplicative fitness (Bianconi & Barabasi, 2001),
if we assume that the distribution of fitness is exponential. One
may speculate that this fitness is related to merit, as it was in
the case of aces.
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