Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research (JECR)

ISSN(Print): 2278-4977; ISSN(Online): 2278-4985

Vol. 6, Issue 2, Dec 2016, 1-18
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.

USING DISPARATE MARKET DATA TO MEASURE AND PREDICT FUTURE

PERFORMANCE OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN
EMERGING REAL ESTATE MARKETS: THE CASE OF NAIROBI CITY
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET (2016-2018)
OJIAMBO OUNDO
Research Scholar, Land Economics, University of Nairobi & Lecturer, University of Nairobi, Kenya
ABSTRACT
Investment decisions are made today but the results are in the future. A typical investor is interested in knowing
what has been the performance in the past and what the likely performance in the future will be. This requires the use of
accurate and reliable data to assess the past and current performance and predict future performance. It is expected that
the market and the economy at large will provide this data and hence the results could form the basis of making an
informed decision. This scenario obtains in the developed world and mature economies but does not obtain in developing
countries and emerging markets. This paper uses the data set adopted in developed markets to assess the current
the typical data set is not available and hence real estate data and data on the economy have been collected from
disparate. Nevertheless, the performance has been good and stable over the period under consideration and has been
determined to a larger extent by inflation rate and interest rates. The performance is predicted to remain unchanged for
the period 2016-2018. However, the unreliable information and the uncertainty associated with such information results
in higher chance of deviation from the predicted performance. The analysis of the data indicates a standard deviation of
6.4 and 2.56 for total rate of return and return on investment respectively. This, therefore, suggests that performance of

Original Article

performance (2010-2015) and predict the likely performance in the coming years (2016-2018). The results indicate that

commercial real estate investment will be lower in the future than it is presently.
Keywords: Investment, Reliable Data, Emerging Markets & Standard Deviation

Received: Sep 21, 2016; Accepted: Oct 03, 2016; Published: Oct 07, 2016; Paper Id.: JECRDEC20161

INTRODUCTION
Real Estate Performance Measurement and Prediction Debate
The decision to invest is basically based on present performance and what is the likely performance in the
future. Investment is, in general terms, a sacrifice of current money or other resources in expectation of future
benefits within an expected period of time. The sacrifice takes place now and is certain but the benefits are
expected in future and tend to be uncertain. Unless it is a case of speculation, a typical investor will consider the
future performance more than the current performance, depending on the holding period. Torto Polleys et. al.,
(1999) asserts that investors lend on a property with embedded expectations about its future performance. This
view has continuously rendered property indices irrelevant in making decisions for long-term investment as they
are backward looking and provide historical perspective. Consequently, investment analysts and literature on
investment has devoted considerable amount of time and space in an attempt to develop models that can predict
future performance.

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Ojiambo Oundo

Predicting future performance of real estate has been a practice for many years. It has been believed that it is
possible to predict future performance of the entire market and the individual real estate investment. For example, the Real
Estate Research Corporation (RERC) of US summarizes the expected rates of return, property selection criteria and
investment outlook. Researchers such as Ling and Mei (1992), Polleys et. al., (1999), among others has suggested that
returns on exchange-traded real estate securities as well as other traditional property investment are partially predictable.
There are, however, writers and analysts who doubt the reliability of future predictions. Ling (2005), citing
previous works by Cremers in 2002, Cowles in 1993 and 1994 and Paul Samuelson in 1974, cast doubt on the reliability of
the prediction models developed by researchers to predict performance of stock exchange. There have been cases in the
investment world when these scepticisms have been proved right. Nonetheless many investors take comfort in some form
of prediction and downscale the same to account for the probability of the projection occurring.
This lingering doubt on the reliability of prediction is based on the distinctive and traditional characteristics of a
real estate and the real estate market. Gau (1985) holds the view that real estate markets are inefficient, largely arising out
of indivisibility and difficulties in incorporating information in capitalization into real estate values. Brown & Matysiak
(2000) notes the widely held believe that real estate market is inefficient as measured by the flow of information. Wang &
Wang (2012) contents that there has been abundant research on real estate related issues for mature economies such as the
United States and the United Kingdom. This has been attributed to improvements in data capture and processing that has
presumably increased the reliability of prediction models.
However, the same cannot be said of real estate markets of developing economies such as countries in Asia and
Africa as not much is known about their performance. Real estate markets in Africa are, undoubtedly, characterized by
poor information flow, the form of investment is direct investment and the role of the capital market is low. Information for
real estate investment in Kenya has come from own research, consultants and newspaper reports. Invariably, predictions
about the performance of the real estate market in the future in these markets are treated cautiously, attracting high-risk
rating. Consequently, higher returns are expected before investment decision is made in respect of emerging markets
compared to mature markets. This, in turn, distorts the market, continuously retarding the development of these markets.
The key parameters for measuring performance, both present and in the future, has been the rate of return, the
deviation from the return (risk) and the likelihood that the risk will occur. In mature markets, the key measure of return has
been in the form of property indices. The index has been used as the benchmark to assess the performance of an individual
property and submarkets. However, Ling (2005) argues that property indices are based on national data and might not have
any relation to regional properties. Performance assessment has been based on ascertaining individual rate return and
assessing its deviation or convergence with the property index, the risk. Wheaton et. al., (1999) notes that total future risk
of real estate assets has two components: the variability of the forecast return and the uncertainty surrounding the forecast.
In practice, it is the uncertainty of the forecast that generates most of the true future risks rather than whether the forecast
has a smooth or varying patterns of returns. Polleys, et al., (1999) concludes that the measurement of real estate risk should
be defined as the uncertainty surrounding the forecast. The uncertainty surrounding the forecasts is directly related to the
inability to incorporate into the analysis of risk all the factors affecting performance of commercial real estate.
Existing literature indicates that the performance of commercial real estate is related to the economy and the
economic/business cycle and key performance indicators of the economy. Tse et al., (1999) opines that the demand for
office space is directly linked to the state of the economy and specifically for the goods and services produced by the firms
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

that occupy space. Liow (2004) and Yunis (2012) affirm the direct relationship between commercial real estate market and
macro-economy and isolate the significant factors to include GDP growth, growth rate in industrial production output,
unexpected inflation, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rates (such as 10-year government bond) and stock market
portfolio- time varying. Roulac (2010) seems to agree with this position and draws the positive relationship between
space-using needs of businesses, the economy and the present and future performance of real estate. Consequently
economic cycles influence real estate cycles. The interaction between these factors determines the current performance of
commercial real estate and a prediction of the likely changes in future can be used to predict future performance.
Gallagher and Wood (1999) hold the view that the performance of commercial real estate cannot be fully
explained by the relationship between the aggregate measures of economic growth and office supply. McDonald (2002), in
an attempt to address the shortcomings of aggregate economic data, presents an office demand model that recognizes
employment, growth of employment, rent and elasticity of demand as the key components. In quintessence, the
significance of the economy in predicting the performance of commercial real estate depends on the identifying the
economic base and its interaction with the general economy.

METHODOLOGY
This paper reviews the commercial real estate market in an emerging market using Nairobi City, Kenya as a case
study. The current performance and the significant factors affecting the performance are used to develop a model to predict
future performance. These factors are GDP growth rate, inflation, interest rate, employment and growth of employment.
These were considered the independent variables while the performance of commercial real estate was the dependent
variable.
The data collected for the study was categorized into two categories, namely those required to ascertain current
performance and those necessary to predict future performance. In the absence of a property index, the current performance
was derived from an analysis of the cost of development/acquisition and the income/revenue. McDonald (2002) argues that
new construction depends on the expected financial returns, which can be summarized as the market value of the new
building on completion compared to its development and construction cost (Tobins q). The data for the factors was
collected from disparate and scattered public documents and publications.
The cost of development comprises preliminary costs (required to acquire the necessary licenses for
development), cost of construction, the cost of land, professional fees and cost of finance. The data required for cost and
time component was the average cost of construction per square foot or meter of similar sized projects and the time taken
from tender award to handover. A sample of fifteen (15) similar-sized projects that have been recently completed or are
nearing completion was randomly selected from the data bank of five (5) quantity surveying firms and analyzed to arrive at
the average cost for the various components of the project and the total sum.
The cost of land was based on a review of thirty (30) professional valuation reports submitted to three (3) various
banks for lending purposes. The professional fee was based on the standard professional fees charged by the entire team of
consultants.
The income/revenue data was collected from modern commercial properties. A total of 147 properties were found
to exhibit characteristics of modern buildings, scattered within the three main commercial sub-centres of Nairobi City as
presented in Table 1 below. 74 properties were randomly selected for the study.
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Ojiambo Oundo

Table 1: Sampled Properties

Commercial
Sub-Centre
CBD
Upperhill
Westlands
Total

Population

Sample

32
68
42
142

14
30
30
74

% Contribution to
the Total Sample
18.92%
40.54%
40.54%
100%

The data collected from each building was:

Rental rate per square foot per month for the past six years (2010-2015)

Sale price per square foot

Year of delivery to the market

Total lettable area

Letting/sale period

Current occupancy level

The analysis of the above data allowed the study to analyze the performance of commercial real estate investment

and make predictions for a specific period of time.

The source of economic performance data was reports and other documents on the Kenyan economy, key among
them being the various statistical abstracts, annual economic surveys, country reviews by World Bank, African
Development Bank (AfDB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. This provided historical data and offered a
glimpse into projected future performance.
The model for predicting the future performance of commercial real estate in Nairobi City was based on the
model developed by Born (1988). The steps in the analysis can be restated as follows:

seasonally adjust all data

determine the period-to-period change in each economic-base variable

smooth all data using a three-period moving average

graph all data versus time

visually evaluate graphs for time period lead relationships between economic-base variable (s) and the
construction variables

calculate correlation coefficients between related construction and economic-growth variable pairs at the
identified lead relationship (s) in graphic examination

apply linear regression analysis to obtain best fit

interpret results
The above process and analysis will produce single-point performance measure and the significant supporting

factors of the economy. The significant factors will be ascertained by a basic correlation and regression model at 0.05
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

significance level. However, a typical investor will require knowing what will happen in the future- will such good/bad
results obtain or what are the chances that there will be significant variance in the future? In simple terms, the present is
necessary but the future is more relevant! The ultimate objective is, therefore, to develop a binary prediction model.
Kauppi Tsolacos (2012) and others have suggested the use of probit model because the predicted performance will either
match the current or deviate from it. In essence, a typical investor is interested in knowing the best case scenario and
worst case scenario. As a result, this analysis can be undertaken by use standard deviation.
Performance Commercial Real Estate Market in Nairobi City, 2010-2015
Commercial Real Estate Investment Returns in Nairobi City 2010-2015
There are two basic forms of investment of commercial real estate in Nairobi City, namely long-term investment
(retention for rental income) and short-term (develop and sale). The most preferred measure of performance of an
individual property for the retention mode of investment is the total rate of return (Hargitay et al., 1993). The total rate of
return is the summation of rental yield and capital appreciation. Return on investment is the most common measures of
performance for the option of develop and sale. Wheaton et al., (1999), Liow (2004) and Brown (2000) advocate the use of
risk and market risk profile to measure performance of commercial real estate investment.
The mean total rate of return (TR) for commercial real estate investment in Nairobi City was ascertained using a
modified single property appraisal function proposed by Dubben et al., (1994) as follows:

TR=

R + Av [R+Sp-Capex]-Inf
D

The first part of the equation, R/ D, is the rental yield as understood in normal real estate investment appraisal.
Where: R is the Effective Rent calculated by a simplified function:
R = R*O
Where R is the mean rent in the market and O is the mean annualized occupancy levels in the market
D is the total development costs and it is a summation of the cost of land (L), actual construction cost (Cc),
professional fees (Pf), cost of statutory building approvals/permits (Bp) and cost of finance (Fc), and hence:
D = L+ Cc + Pf + Bp + Fc
Where L= La*PL*Pr*Def
And La is the area of the land, PL is the price of land per unit of measurement, Pr is the plot ratio and Def is the
design efficiency
Where Cc= (Tba* Cr) + Cs
And Tba is the total build up area, being a product of the land area (La) and plot ratio (Pr), Cr is the construction
rate per square unit of measurement prevailing in the market, and Cs is the contingent sum stated as a percentage of the
product of Tba and Cr
Where Pf is a percentage of Cc
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Where Bp is the costs for statutory approvals, stated as a percentage of the product of Tba and Cr
Where Fc = (Cs*LVR* i)
And LVR is the loan-to-value ratio, i is the mean market interest rate for project financing and is the
period/term of the loan
And = (T*DD) + RT, where T is the construction time given in the construction contract, DD is the percentage
time left at the first drawdown of the construction loan and RT is the residual time required to complete the sale process
and receive the final purchase price
The second part of the TR equation, Av [R+Sp-Capex]-Inf, calculates the capital appreciation. An average of
R (rental rate per square unit of measurement) and Sp (the sale price per square unit area of measurement) is necessary to
capture the entire market (lease and sale market) perception.
R is the change in the rental rate, R
Sp is the change sale price per unit area, Sp, of space between two periods
Inf is the change in inflation between two selected periods, usually a year
The function for return on investment (ROI) can be restated as follows:
ROI= (Tba*Efr*Sp)/ D
Where Tba is the total built-up area, Efr is efficiency ratio i.e., the percentage of lettable area to the built-up area,
Sp is the sale price per square unit area of measurement, D is the total development costs and is the time when the
invested funds are held in the project.
Time comprise of cost weighted time for the planning phase, PT, construction and completion works phase, T,
and the residual time, RT, and can be restated as follows:
= PT + T + RT
The model disregards earlier redemption of the investment by sales completion occurring before time RT or
through partial discharge.
The mean rental rate was Kshs. 78.95 per square foot (Kshs. 849.90 per square metre) per month in 2010 but rose
to Kshs. 114.29 per square foot or Kshs. 1,230.31 per square metre per month in 2015. This represents an average increase,
R of 7.89% per annum during the period 2010 and 2015. The change in the rental rates is a contributor to capital
appreciation. The mean occupancy levels have averaged 94.49% during the period of review. Consequently, the effective
rent (R) was Kshs. 78.13 per square foot per month in 2010 and Kshs. 100.86 in 2015.
The cost of land (L) has been a critical component in the total development costs (D). The price of land (PL) is
differentiated among the various commercial sub-centres and has changed over the period 2010-2015. For example, the
average price of land per acre in 2010 was Kshs. 500M in the CBD, Kshs. 200M in Upperhill and Kshs. 240M in
Westlands.
The City Council of Nairobi and its successor, The City County of Nairobi, has set different development
parameters in line with the zoning regulations. The various spatial plans for the city have set and reviewed the planning and
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

development regulations. The 1973 Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy, the 1993 re-zoning of Upperhill (Zone 3) and
the 2005 review Westlands area set differentiated plot ratios and site coverage that allowed for calculation of the maximum
buildable areas (Tba) of a commercial building. However, new developments (post 2013) show remarkable differences
with publicized plot ratio, suggesting that there have been cases of unofficial enhancement of plot ratio. Table 4
summarizes the changes in plot ratio (Pr) in the main commercial sub-centres in Nairobi City.
Table 4: Trends of Plot Ratios in Commercial Sub-Centres of Nairobi
CBD
Westlands
Upperhill

2010
5.5
2.0
3.0

2011
5.5
3.0
3.0

2012
5.5
3.0
3.0

2013
5.5
4.0
3.5

2014
6.0
5.0
4.0

2015
7.0
5.75
5.5

The product of the land area (La) and the plot ratio (Pr) is the maximum buildable area (Tba). However, it has
been observed that the maximum buildable area (Tba) is hardly achieved. This is attributed to constraints imposed by
topography, shape of the land, technology, experience of the design team and other factors. In essence, the failure to
achieve maximum permitted buildable area is a design deficiency (Def). The results of the cost of land (L) have been
presented in Table 6 below. The cost of land (L) was found to be Kshs. 2,498.93 and Kshs. 2,487.44 per square foot in
2010 and 2015 respectively. This suggests that the cost of land reduces with the increase in plot ratio.
The mean cost of construction (Cr) has ranged from Kshs. 31,000.00 per square metre (Kshs. 2,879.70 per square
foot) in 2010 to Kshs. 60,110.15 per square metre (Kshs. 5,583.85 per square foot) in 2015. The contingent sum (Cs) has
varied over the same period, from a low of 1% of the cost of construction to a current level of 5%. The noticeable increase
is due to increased costs of marketing and projects administration. The actual cost of construction has averaged Kshs.
4,429.93 per square foot as presented in Table 5.
The professional fees, based on the various professional scales of fees, can be summarized as follows:

Architect

Civil/Structural Engineer 2.0%

Electrical Engineer

1.5%

Mechanical Engineer

1.5%

Quantity Surveyor

3.5%

6.0%

The sum of the above fees is 14.5% of the total construction costs. However, in practice, the professional fees for
the design and the supervision stages have been capped at 10% of the total construction cost (Cs). The study, therefore,
adopted 10% as the professional fees in establishing the total cost of development.
It is a requirement under The Physical Planning Act No. 286, The Public Health Act Cap 242, The Urban Areas
and Cities Act No. 13 of 2011 and The Environmental Management and Coordination Act of 1999 to submit for approval
and issuance of development permits for any works that are defined as development. The cost of statutory approvals (Bp)
has been changing over the years, ranging from 0.5% of the product of Tba and Cr in 2010 to 2.06% in 2015.
The remaining parameters required for calculation of the cost of finance (Fc) have been fluctuating over the
period selected for the study as follows:
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The loan-to-value LVR is an average of 65% for construction cases;

The mean interest rates i have been fluctuating over the years as shown in Figure 2;

The time T for a typical office tower ranges between 18-24 months, with advancement in construction technology
allowing for a shorter period;

Typically, the debt funds are drawn from the 35% construction stage and when about 45% of the tendered
construction time has elapsed and hence DD is 55%; and

The residual time RT required to finalize the sale process has ranged between 3 and 6 months after issuance of
certificate of practical completion.
The sale of small office/commercial spaces has not been a common phenomenon in Kenya. The first property to

be sold in units was the 5th Avenue Office Suites on Ngong Road in 2009/2010. Since then, there have been a number of
properties that have been developed and sold as office suites. Most of the developments for sale have been in Westlands
and Upperhill sectors with Mombasa Road and CBD recording very few cases. The current average sale price of an office
suite/space is Kshs. 13,780.00 per square foot, up from Kshs. 9,000.00 in 2009/2010 as shown in Figure 1 below. This
indicates that the sale prices have been on an upward trend in the past 5 years, increasing by an average of 5% annually,
Sp.

Figure 1: Trends in Sales Prices of Office Spaces in Nairobi City

The buildings sampled for this study were new/modern buildings and hence capital expenditure, Capex, was
minimal or low. However, the reflect the correct position in the market, a Capex rate of between 5% and 8% was adopted
for the years 2010-2012 and 2013 to 2015 respectively.
Annual inflation rate in Kenya has remained within the single digit level for the past six years in line with the
stated objective of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as presented in Figure 4. The Inf has been low over the period
at 0.315% with individual years exhibiting differences as presented in Table 5 below.
The parameters for time in ROI have varied over the years as follows:

PT has been negligible, averaging 0.003 cost weighted months

T has been the highest, averaging 2.0998 cost weighted months

RT has been the second highest, averaging 0.43329 cost weighted months

Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

Table 5: Summary of Time Data and Change of Inflation

Time T
Time DD
Time RT
Time
Time PT
Time T
Time RT
Time
Inf

2010
2.2
55
0.5
1.71
0.002
2.1999
0.4999
2.702
1.36

2011
2.2
55
0.5
1.71
0.002
2.1999
0.4999
2.702
(6.14)

2012
2.2
55
0.3
1.51
0.002
2.1999
0.2999
2.502
4.62

2013
2.2
55
0.3
1.51
0.003
2.1999
0.2999
2.503
4.35

2014
1.9
55
0.5
1.55
0.005
1.8997
0.4999
2.404
(1.83)

2015
1.0
55
0.5
1.49
0.006
1.8997
0.4999
2.405
(0.47)

The various measures of return for commercial real estate investment in Nairobi City for the study period (20102015) have been presented in Table 6 below. These measures can be summarized as follows:

Total rate of return: 18.55%;

Rental yield: 11.58%

Capital appreciation: 6.97%

Profitability index: 26.99%

Return on investment: 10.58%

Risk, as measured by standard deviation, is 6.63% and 2.71% for total rate of return and return on investment.
It is possible to combine the two measures of performance- total rate of rate of return and return on investment- to

determine a single figure to describe the market total rate of return for investment in commercial real estate in Nairobi City.
The same can be restated as follows:
Market Rate of Return
Nairobi City

Risk Weighted
Market Rate of Return

14.57%

9.90%

Table 6: Summary of Various Performance Measures of Commercial Real Estate Investment in Nairobi City
Revenue Parameters
R: Rental Rate
(Kshs. p.sq.ft. per month)
O: Occupancy Levels
R: Effective Rental Rate
(Kshs. p.sq.ft. p.m)
SP: Effective Sale Prices
(Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Development Costs
L: Land (Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Cc: Construction costs
(Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Pf: Professional Fees
(Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Bp: Statutory approvals
(Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Fc: Cost of Finance (Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
www.tjprc.org

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

78.95

83.40

90.11

97.28

95.58

114.29

98.96%
78.13

98.96%
82.54

94.20
84.89

94.20%
91.64

92.35%
88.27

88.25%
100.86

7,830.00

9,211.50

10,350.00

11,250.00

12,113.33

12,677.67

2,498.93
2,908.50

2,408.90
3,110.29

2,886.31
3,851.77

3,052.44
4,856.01

2,902.59
5,697.61

2,487.44
5,863.04

337.39

360.79

446.81

563.30

660.92

680.11

14.40

15.25

18.88

47.38

81.39

115.03

460.67

698.33

672.93

808.34

914.92

894.33
[email protected]

10

Ojiambo Oundo

D: Total Development Costs

(Kshs. p.sq.ft.)
Performance Measures
Rental Yield
Capital Appreciation
Total Rate of Return
Profitability Index
Return on Investment p.a.

6,219.88

6,593.57

13.57%
5.64%
19.21%
25.89%
9.58%

13.52%
17.20%
30.72%
39.70%
14.70%

7,876.70

11.64%
2.60%
14.24%
31.40%
12.55%

9,327.47

10.61%
3.56%
14.17%
20.61%
8.23%

10,257.43

10,039.96

9.29%
3.67%
12.96%
18.09%
7.52%

10.85%
9.18%
20.03%
26.27%
10.92%

Review of Commercial Real Estate Investment Performance in Nairobi City 2010-2015

The performance of commercial real estate has fluctuated over the period under review, with comparatively high
returns reported in 2011. The performance curve smoothened in 2012-2014 before a steady climb in 2015 as presented
in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Trends in Commercial Real Performance, 2010-2015

The past and current performance is a reflection of the market sentiments about the performance of the Kenyan
economy. This performance is manifested in demand and supply decisions in relation to commercial real estate. The
analysis of the supply and demand equation in emerging markets like Kenya is difficult due to lack of information. This is
mainly caused by poor record keeping at land registries and the local authorities and lack of a centralized market for real
estate products. Official records on space occupation (number of businesses, employees and output among others) are also
disparate and scattered and hence cannot be used on their own to gauge performance of commercial real estate.
The analysis of supply and demand, therefore, relies heavily on surrogate measures such changes in occupancy
levels and prices (rental levels and purchase prices) and tracking of credit uptake. The demand and supply of real estate can
also be analyzed on the basis of housing and business accommodation needs, approved building plans and observed
completed and ongoing constructions. The data for the first two parameters is not readily available and hence they are not
reliable indicators of demand and supply. In addition, tracking changes in the performance of the national and regional
economy and the key performance indicators can be used to analyze performance of the commercial real estate sector.

Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

11

It is observed that the average rental rates in Nairobi City have been on an upward trend while occupancy levels
have reduced over the past three years as presented in Figure 3 below. This is contrary to the expected relationship i.e., that
the rental rates will reduce when occupancy levels reduce. This suggests that there are other factors that have determined
the prevailing market rental rates.

Figure 3: Rental Rates Trends in Nairobi City

The amount of credit advanced to real estate has steadily increased over the years, rising from Kshs. 176B in 2011
(9.9% of the total credit to the private sector) to Kshs. 262.7B by December 2014 (12.48% of the total credit). It is
estimated that Kshs. 47.5B (12.1% of the total credit in the economy and 13.6% of total credit to the private sector) had
been advanced to real estate (GOK, 2015a). The changing trends are captured in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Trends in Credit to Real Estate, Interest Rate and GDP Growth Rate
The credit advanced to the real estate sector and the 3.82% directed towards building and construction sector has
been used to produce and consume real estate products. It is, therefore, possible to manipulate the same to profile demand
and supply. In this regard, it is estimated that 1.7 million square metres of real estate was produced in the year 2014.
Assuming that that 15% of these spaces were commercial spaces, it can be concluded that approximately 170,703m of
office/commercial spaces were produced in 2014.
The value of private buildings approved in 2014 was Kshs. 205.4B while the completed works amounted to Kshs.
59B (GOK, 2015b). The value attributed to non-residential units was Kshs. 8.367B. Based on the current average
construction cost of commercial developments, the amount of spaces produced in the market was 139, 200m.
The supply of commercial/office spaces can also be estimated based on the inventory of ongoing projects. This
indicates that approximately 693,880.45 square metres of lettable office/commercial spaces will be released in the market
between 2015 and 2017 as summarized in Table 7 below.

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Table 7: Estimated Commercial/Office Spaces Release, 2015-2017

Commercial
Sub-Centre
Upperhill
Westlands
CBD
Total

Lettable Area (square metres)

2015
2016/2017
Total
60,938.23
213,901.16
274,839.38
25,044.12
379,598.43
404,642.56
3,715.75
10,682.77
14,398.51
89,698.10
604,182.36
693,880.45

The number of employees in Nairobi City was estimated to be 1,812,869 in 2013 and projected to increase to
2,146,279 by 2018 (Nairobi City County, 2014). This is an increase of 3.6% per annum and 60,000 new employees per
year. The formal jobs were estimated at 1million and are projected to be 1,216,183 by 2018. This will be an annual growth
rate of 5.2%, generating 52,236 new employees in the formal sector. Assuming a space allocation of 15m per employee,
the additional space requirements per annum is 783,549m.
It is now possible to estimate the supply and demand for office spaces in Nairobi City. The median and the mean
for the various surrogate measures of supply-credit to commercial real estate, value of approved building plans and actual
releases in 2015- is 139,200 m and 133,200.33m respectively. It is possible to assume that the annual office space supply
will be 140,000m per annum for the period 2016-2018. The demand, solely based on additional employees, has been
783,549m. However, this estimate is based the assumption that all additional jobs are in the formal sector, requiring space
in modern office buildings. This is not the case, considering the structure of the Kenyan economy. This situation has been
highlighted in the Economic Survey for 2016 that indicates that the economy created 841,000 jobs with 128,000 being in
the formal sector (GOK, 2016). In addition, changes in working environment and technology suggest that not all
employees will require office space at the same time. It is safe to assume that only half of the additional employment in the
market will result in additional demand for spaces. The demand can, therefore, be estimated at 372,446m. This estimated
demand is expected to be satisfied by new constructions and re-organization and re-assignment of existing spaces. This
will imply that demand and supply will be in balance.
Predicted Investment Performance, 2016-2018
The commercial real estate market in Nairobi City, like in other jurisdictions, interacts with several factors in the
economy. This interaction determines the various performance measures of the commercial real estate market. Past
literature based on mature and sophisticated economies have identified the GDP growth rate, average interest rates in the
economy, annual inflation rate and employment levels as the key factors that determine the performance of commercial
real estate, individually and as a market. These factors were considered as the key variables in analyzing the trend of
commercial real estate performance in the period 2010-2015. The relationship established was used to predict the
performance of commercial real estate for the period under review, 2016-2018.
The data on GDP growth rates, inflation rate and interest rates are published annually by Kenya National Bureau
of Statistics and The Central Bank of Kenya. The same has been considered as an accurate reflection of the economic
activities of the economy by the World Bank, IMF and African Development Bank. During the period 2010-2015, the
reported GDP growth rate has averaged 5.76% as presented in Figure 4 above. The annual inflation rate has averaged
8.65%, save for the spike in 2011 (14.02%). However, the inflation rate has been maintained at low levels in the past three
years, with a mean of 6.43%. The mean interest rate for the period under review has been 17.04%. However, there has been
a downward trend in the recent past, with the year 2015 averaging 15.99%.
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

13

The stable economic growth rate is expected to be sustained in the coming years. The prediction of the likely
performance of the Kenyan economy in the coming years suggests a GDP growth rate of between 5% and 7%. The various
country reports on Kenya by international organizations projects that the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2015 but will slow
down in 2016 and 2017 due to the heightened political activities (World Bank, 2015, IMF, 2015 and AfDB, 2015). The
Economist Intelligence Unit (2015), on the other hand, projects that the economy will grow by 5.7% in 2015 and 5.2%
during the extended period to 2020. KIPPRA (2013) presents two possible scenarios, projecting a GDP growth of 7.0% and
6.3% between 2015 and 2017. Further, World Bank (2016) projects a GDP growth rate of 5.9% in 2016, 6.1% in 2017 and
6.2% in 2018. All the projections indicate that the economy will remain stable and will provide the foundation for a
predictable commercial real estate market.
The comparatively high interest rates have dominated discussions in the regulatory, business and political circles.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) acknowledges the relationship between interest rates and inflation and the
concomitant impact on the economy. As a result, MPC regularly sets the Central Bank Rate (CBR) which acts as a
benchmark for Kenya Bankers Reference Rate (KBRR). The CBR rate is set on quarterly basis and seems to be driven by
the need to keep inflation between 2.5% and 7.5%. Consequently, the MPC retained the CBR rate at 11.50% and KBRR at
8.54% on the strengths of lower inflation rate of 6.8% (CBK, 2016). This stance is expected to be maintained in the coming
years and is projected that the interest rates will be maintained at 16% while inflation will range from 6.5% to 8%.
There are several agencies that can provide data on employment in Kenya. These include Kenya National
Statistical Bureau (KNBS), Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) and National
Hospital Insurance Fund (NSSF). The annual statistical abstracts and economic surveys by the KNBS provide the number
of persons in wage employment. In addition, the Census Reports provide data of persons employed, irrespective of whether
it is formal or informal. KRA has data on the number of persons employed in Kenya as it is a mandatory requirement under
the Income Tax Act. Likewise all those in employment are required by required to be registered under NSSF (Section 19 of
The National Social Security Fund Act No. 45 of 2013) and NHIF (by virtue of the provisions of The National Hospital
Insurance Fund Act No. 9 of 1998).
Unfortunately, these agencies have different figures relating to employment as presented in Table 8 below.
Likewise, the data is not segregated between formal and informal sector and, at times, between the various urban centres.
KRA and NSSF declined to provide the data while NHIF availed the data for the year 2015 only.
Table 8: Collated Employment Data for Nairobi City
2009
KNBS- Census
Report and
projections
KNBS-Economic
Survey 2016
KNBS- Statistical
Abstracts
NHIF
% Change in
Employment
Numbers

www.tjprc.org

2010

2011

2012

1,411,599

2014

2015

2,370,200

2,478,000

1,463,097
2,084,100

503,389

2013

521,100

2,155,800

2,283,100

538,571
1,202,037

4.85%

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

4.15%

4.5%

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Notes
the next census report is due in 2019
this relate to the entire country and the data is not segregated among the various centres
it seems that the segregation in respect of Nairobi alone was discontinued
based on the mean of various estimates
The contradictory and variant data cast doubt on the reliability of the above data set. It has been common practice
to remodel the above data set to arrive at employment figures that reflect reality. For example, the Japan International
Cooperation used the business registration data of Nairobi City Council of 2013 and commuters net inflow to estimate the
number of persons employed at 1,813,000 (NCC, 2014).
A review of the census report for 2009 indicates that employed persons in Nairobi constituted 44.98% of the citys
population (GOK, 2010). This improved to 45.6% for the period 2012/2013 (GOK, 2014). The overall population grew by
3.8% between 1999 and 2009 but is expected to slow down to 3.6% in the period between 2009 and 2019. The number of
persons in formal employment is projected to increase by 5.2% annually, amounting to 52,236 new jobs (NCC, 2014).
The percentage change in number of persons in employment seems to be a good estimator of the variable. It is
assumed that the percentage change nationally is also applicable in Nairobi City or is more easily achievable in Nairobi
City than other places/regions in Kenya. Economic Survey of 2016 indicates that wage employment increased by 4.5% in
2015 and 3.8% in 2014 (GOK, 2016). World Bank (2016) estimate that an average of 4.5% additional jobs per annum have
been created between 2006 and 2013. It is assumed that this percentage change will be maintained in the years 2016 to
2018.
Using the model developed by Born (1988), it is now possible to create a regression equation to determine the
relationship between the independent variable (rate of return) and the dependent variables (GDP growth rate, inflation rate,
interest rate and percentage change in employment numbers). This will be undertaken separately in respect of total rate of
return and return on investment.
Table 9: Pearson Correlation Coefficients for Independent and Dependent Variable
Variables
Total rate of return
2-Tailed significance test at 0.05 level

GDP
0.122
0.817

Inflation
0.823
0.044

Interest Rate
0.574
0.233

Employment
0.295
0.570

Return on Investment
2-Tailed significance test at 0.05 level

-0.326
0.528

0.879
0.021

0.731
0.098

0.240
0.647

The above data indicates that the relationship between the total rate of return (TOR) and inflation is positive and
very strong at 0.05 significance level. This suggests that as inflation rate increases, landlords increase rental rates to hedge
against inflation at a rate higher than the changes in the cost of development. However, the relationship between total rate
of return and interest rate is noticeable outside the acceptance level and hence it is not considered an important factor
determining the performance of commercial real estate. The relationship with GDP growth rate and percentage change in
employment per annum is weak, suggesting minimal impact.
Inflation rate has positive and strong relationship with return on investment (ROI) at 5% confidence level. This
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

15

suggests that as the inflation rate increase, landlords can increase rental rates at a rate higher than the impact on cost of
development. The correlation coefficient between ROI and interest rate is positive and strong but falls slightly outside the
acceptance level at 5% confidence level. However, it is close enough to 0.05 level and hence it is considered an important
factor determining the performance of commercial real estate investment in Nairobi City. On the other hand, the
relationship between return on investment and GDP growth rate and employment statistics is weak and outside the
acceptance level of 0.05.
The correlation coefficients in Table 9 above allowed for isolation of those significant factors affecting
performance of commercial real estate. The important factor on the total rate of return (TOR) was inflation rate while the
inflation rate and interest rate were important factors in determining the performance of commercial real estate under the
option of develop and sale (ROI). This could be explained, in part, by the in-built rent escalation clauses in typical leases
that have been higher than the rate of inflation over the period of study. For instance, a study conducted in Nairobi City in
2013 found that the mean rent escalation rate was 7.9% with a mode of 10% and a median of 7.5%
(Roack Consult Limited, 2013). The inflation rate in the year 2013 was 5.05% and has averaged 7.17% for the period
2013-2015. This is significantly lower than the applicable annual rent increase. It could also be explained by the fact that
the relatively high interest rates have discouraged new developments. It is possible to conclude that the comparatively high
interest rates and stringent appraisal process and the subsequent financial burden of servicing the facility have restricted the
number of players in commercial real estate sub-sector.
The retained variables were used to present a regression model to explain their impacts on the TOR and ROI.
The results of the regression analysis can be presented as follows:
TOR

ROI

Constant

4.08

1.416

R square

0.678

0.785

1.726

0.649

Beta Coefficient
Inflation rate
Interest rate

0.225

The less than 1.00 R square indicates that there are other factors in the market that determine the performance of
commercial real estate. The typical factors known to determine the performance of commercial real estate in advanced
economies are not fully applicable in emerging economies. Some of these factors were identified as occupancy density
ratio and sub-centre net growth rate and net future inflows (Oundo, 2011). The disparate and unreliable data on
employment levels, space inventory and space demand could also explain the phenomenon.
The relationship can now be presented as follows:
Total Rate of Return (TOR):

4.08 + 1.726 (Inflation rate)

Return on Investment (ROI):

1.416 + 0.649 (Inflation rate) + 0.225 (interest rate)

The projected stable GDP growth rate, the strong fiscal position, a disciplined monetary regime and strong
financial sector suggests that market fundamentals in Kenya will remain strong to sustain a real estate investment market.
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The key factors that affect performance will be inflation and interest rates. The prediction of the likely inflation rate and
mean interest rate for the period 2016 to 2018 is not easy as the same depends on many internal and external factors.
However, a review of recent pronouncements by MPC indicates a determination to keep inflation rate at 7.5%. This has
seen the frequent reviews of the CBR, keeping in mind the inflation rate. Likewise, the CBR and the KBRR have, as a
practice, been the basis of determining the interest rates in the economy. Table 10 below gives an indication of the likely
inflation rate and interest rates for the period 2016 to 2018.
Table 10: Projected Inflation Rate and Interest Rates, 2016-2018
Inflation Rate
Interest Rates

2016
6.5%
16%

2017
7.5%
17%

2018
6.5%
15%

The above data can be inserted in the regression equation to predict the likely performance of commercial real
estate investment. However, it is noted that inflation rate and inflation rate and interest rate do not fully explain the
performance of commercial real estate because of the less than 1.00 R square. Consequently, the formulae for predicting
future performance can be restated as follows:
Predicted TOR/ROI=

Regression TOR/ROI
R square

The results can be stated as follows:

2016

2017

2018

Total rate of Return:

22.56%

22.11%

22.56%

Return on Investment:

11.76%

12.88%

11.47%

However, a typical investor is interested to know the likely chance that the above predicted performance will
occur. In essence, the investor is looking at the probability that the above predicted results will occur or not. This is based
established by calculating the standard deviation of the returns for the period 2010 to the respective year. The results
provide the adjusted rate of return that is the worst case scenario as follows:
2016

2017

2018

6.24

6.15

Standard Deviation of Total rate of Return:

6.63

Adjusted Total Rate of Return:

15.94%

18.87%

6.41%

Standard Deviation for Return on Investment:

2.71

2.52

2.45

Adjusted Return on Investment:

9.05%

10.36%

9.03%

CONCLUSIONS
The returns from commercial real estate investments have been high and above other investment vehicles in the
market. This has been attributed to stable economic parameters, the parity between new demand and supply in the market
and the ever-changing commercial urban form. The predicted performance in the years 2016 to 2018 are generally within
past levels. However, due to uncertainty of future events and the disparate data, the predicted future performance has been
downscaled to allow investors appreciate both the best case scenario and the worst case scenario. This will suggest that the
Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1

Using Disparate Market Data to Measure and Predict Future Performance of Commercial Real Estate
Investment in Emerging Real Estate Markets: the Case of Nairobi City Commercial Real Estate Market (2016-2018)

17

performance in the coming years will be lower than the past years.
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18

Ojiambo Oundo
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Impact Factor (JCC):1.1306

Index Copernicus Value (ICV):6.1