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    Assignment 3 - Due Nov 25th

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    sdjlsd zzn68741
    This document outlines the details of Assignment #3 for the course STAT 2003. It includes 4 problems covering material from Sections 4.5 to Chapter 5 of the lecture notes. Students are required to use Microsoft Excel to show calculations with 4 decimal places of precision. The assignment is due on November 25th, 2016 by 5:30pm and should be submitted electronically through the eLearning system with a specific filename format. Problem 1 involves simulation of a geometric distribution, Problem 2 uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate probabilities for coin toss scenarios, Problem 3 examines probabilities for collecting toy figurines from chocolate eggs, and Problem 4 simulates lunch eating times to minimize expected payment for a group challenge offer.

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    Assignment 3 - Due Nov 25th

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    sdjlsd zzn68741
    78 views2 pages
    This document outlines the details of Assignment #3 for the course STAT 2003. It includes 4 problems covering material from Sections 4.5 to Chapter 5 of the lecture notes. Students are required to use Microsoft Excel to show calculations with 4 decimal places of precision. The assignment is due on November 25th, 2016 by 5:30pm and should be submitted electronically through the eLearning system with a specific filename format. Problem 1 involves simulation of a geometric distribution, Problem 2 uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate probabilities for coin toss scenarios, Problem 3 examines probabilities for collecting toy figurines from chocolate eggs, and Problem 4 simulates lunch eating times to minimize expected payment for a group challenge offer.

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    STAT2003 Assignment Random Number Generation by LCG Monte Carlo Simulation

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    This document outlines the details of Assignment #3 for the course STAT 2003. It includes 4 problems covering material from Sections 4.5 to Chapter 5 of the lecture notes. Students are required to use Microsoft Excel to show calculations with 4 decimal places of precision. The assignment is due on November 25th, 2016 by 5:30pm and should be submitted electronically through the eLearning system with a specific filename format. Problem 1 involves simulation of a geometric distribution, Problem 2 uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate probabilities for coin toss scenarios, Problem 3 examines probabilities for collecting toy figurines from chocolate eggs, and Problem 4 simulates lunch eating times to minimize expected payment for a group challenge offer.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    78 views2 pages

    Assignment 3 - Due Nov 25th

    Uploaded by

    sdjlsd zzn68741
    This document outlines the details of Assignment #3 for the course STAT 2003. It includes 4 problems covering material from Sections 4.5 to Chapter 5 of the lecture notes. Students are required to use Microsoft Excel to show calculations with 4 decimal places of precision. The assignment is due on November 25th, 2016 by 5:30pm and should be submitted electronically through the eLearning system with a specific filename format. Problem 1 involves simulation of a geometric distribution, Problem 2 uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate probabilities for coin toss scenarios, Problem 3 examines probabilities for collecting toy figurines from chocolate eggs, and Problem 4 simulates lunch eating times to minimize expected payment for a group challenge offer.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    STAT 2003:Computer-aided Statistical Reasoning

    2016-17 Term 1
    Assignment #3
    Due: November 25th, 2016 (Friday) at 5:30pm
    This assignment covers material from Section 4.5 to Chapter 5 of the lecture notes.
    You are required to use the Microsoft Excel to work on ALL the calculations, and please
    present your answers in (at least) 4 decimal places.
    Assignment Submission: Please submit the soft copy of your work: Soft copy: An assignment #3 dropbox button is now available in the eLearning system
    ** Filename **:Please have the filename of the formCHAN Tai Man assignment 3.xlsx
    so that the grader is able to keep track of your file easier.
    *No Hard copy is required*: All the computations can be done in Excel formula directly.
    Problem 1 [28 points] (Simulation of Geometric Distribution): Consider Y ~ Geometric(p)
    y
    with the cdf given by F ( y) Pr(Y y) 1 q

    for y = 1, 2, .

    where q = 1-p is the probability of failure. Assume that p = 0.65.


    (a) [3 points] Compute Pr(Y > 16) and present the answer in 4 significant figures.
    (b) [4 points] Based on the Linear Congruential Generator with parameters
    (a, c, m, x0) =(40014, 0, 2147483399, 40015),
    generate 10,000 pseudo-random numbers {u1, u2, , u10000}.
    (c) [9 points] Based on the pseudo-random numbers generated in part (b), and the inverse
    CDF method similar to Ch4 page 64-65, simulate Y up to Y 16 only (i.e. ignore Y > 16).
    (d) [6 points] Simulate 10,000 values of Y based on the exact formula (from Ch4 page 61):
    "=ROUNDUP(LN(RAND())/LN(1-p),0)"
    (e) [6 points] Construct a frequency table to compare the actual pmf with the empirical pmf
    of simulated values obtained in part (c) and part (d) [Similar to the right hand table on
    Ch4 page 70].
    Problem 2 [26 points] (Monte Carlo Method on Path Dependent Problem)
    (a) [13 points] Suppose a fair coin is tossed 10 times, and we are interested in
    p1 = Pr(Number of heads do not exceed the number of tails by 1 DURING the tosses)
    (E.g. sequence THHTHTHTHT is okay, sequence HHxxxxxxxx is not okay because number
    of heads exceeds number of tails by 2 after the 2nd toss. Similarly, sequence HTHHxxxxxx
    is not okay after the 4th toss).
    Based on Monte Carlo Methods with 5,000 trials, estimate p1 and provide a 95% CI for
    p1.
    (b) [13 points] Repeat part (a) if the probability of interest p2 =Pr(|# of heads - # of tails|2
    DURING the tosses).
    (E.g. sequence THHHTTTTHT is okay, but not TTTxxxxxxx nor HTHHHxxxxx).
    Page 1/2

    Problem 3 [16 points] Consider a Chocolate Surprise product with hollow milk chocolate
    egg shell containing a toy inside. The toy can either be figurine A or figurine B, with the
    probability of occurrence 30% and 70% respectively. Suppose we bought 5 of these
    Chocolate Surprise products at random, and let X be the number of figurine A obtained.
    (a) [3 points] Show that the (exact) probability of obtaining at least one complete set
    (Figurine A + B) is p1 = Pr(1 X 4) = 0.8295
    (b) [3 points] What is the (exact) probability of obtaining at least two complete sets p2?
    (c) [5 points] Estimate p1 based on Monte Carlo methods of 5,000 trials, and provide a 95%
    confidence interval for p1.
    (d) [5 points] Estimate p2 based on Monte Carlo methods of 5,000 trials, and provide a 95%
    confidence interval for p2.
    Problem 4 [30 points] In a restaurant nearby the campus, the lunch set they serve is $40
    per person. Recently, there is a Big Eater Challenge offered by the restaurant as follow:
    A group of 4 or more people can order the same lunch set together at $60 each. If at least
    4 of them are able to finish his/her lunch set within an hour, only those who are not able to
    finish on time have to pay for his/her lunch.(For example, if a group of 5 people entered the
    challenge and 4 finished on time, only the 5th person is required to pay for $60. However, if
    only 3 of them finished on time, the group has to pay a total of $60x5 =$300.)
    Let Yi be the time (in hours) for the ith person to finish his/her lunch, and assume that
    Yi ~Exp(=5/6)
    [i.e. E(Yi) = 1/ = 1.2 hour]
    Suppose you come with a group of 6 persons today, and you are allowed to assign some of
    the group members to join the Big Eater Challenge (with the rest ordering the regular
    lunch set at $40 each).
    Based on the Monte Carlo Method with simulation size of 5,000 trials, how many people
    should we assign to the "Big Eater Challenge", so as to minimize the expected amount the
    group has to pay to the restaurant?
    - End of the Assignment -

    Page 2/2

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