UMS

Statistics
HK 01

Probability Concepts

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Why Probability Concepts

1.Probability concepts are the mathematical foundation
of statistics. A basic understanding of probability is
necessary for the study of statistics.

2. Probability = a number between 0 and 1 that

measures likelihood.

Probability Terms and Definitions

Consider an experiment where the smoking habits of the

employees of a manufacturing firm are recorded. A possible sample
space might classify an individual as a nonsmoker, a light smoker, a
moderate smoker, or a heavy smoker.

Probability Terms and Definitions

1.

Experiment = A process that leads to a well defined outcome.

2.

Outcome= The result of an experiment

3.
4.

Events = One or more outcomes

An outcome is an event, but multiple outcomes also can
qualify as an event.

5.

Sample Space= A list of all possible events. The sample

space for tossing a die would be the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.

6.

Mutually Exclusive: Only one event can occur at the same

time. The number of dots on each side of a die is mutually
exclusive; one cannot simultaneously observe a 1 and a 3.
Collectively exhaustive= include all possible events. The
outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are collectively exhaustive for the
die toss experiment. The sum of probabilities for collectively
exhaustive events is 1.

7.

Probability Terms and Definitions

Example 1
Record the number of defective light bulbs in a box of ten light bulbs. A
suitable sample space is S= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Example 2

Count the number of days this week on which it rains. A suitable

sample space is S= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Example 3
Count the number of cars passing a fixed point on a motorway in one
minute. A suitable sample space is S= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,

Probability Terms and Definitions

Example 4
Record the height (meters) of a tree in a forest. A suitable sample space is
S= : > 0
Example 5

Record the birthweights (kilograms) of twins. A suitable sample space

is S= , : > 0 > 0
Example 6
Suppose, that we want to record the sexes of the children in a family
with three children. The most informative sample space is
S= , , , , , , ,
Where, for example, ffm represents the ordered outcome that the two
oldest children are female and the youngest child is male.

Probability Terms and Definitions

If only the total numbers of boys and girls in the family were important
to us, and not their birth order, we would then be adopting, the
alternative sample space.
S1= 0,1,2,3
Complement = All the events in sample space not included in any particular
event.
The symbol ~ is used for the complement, and it reads not. If the letter A
refers to a particular event, say an even number of dots when tossing a die,
~ pronounced as Not A or A not refer to the event of an odd number of
dots.
Complementary events, by definition, mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive. In other words: P(A)+P(~ ) = 1, which means that the probability
of a complement is 1 minus the probability of the other event:

P(~ ) = 1 - P(A)

Assessing Probability
Classical Probability:
Counting Occurrence in a sample space

Relative Frequency Probability:

Treating a proportion as a probability

Subjective Probability
Based on Experience, not calculation

Assessing Probability
Classical Probability:

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Assessing Probability
Relative Frequency Probability:

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Assessing Probability
DEMONSTRATION OF THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY NOTION OF PROBABILITY
Suppose I toss two fair dice and I'm interested in the probability that the sum of the
two faces is equal to 6. I can use the computer to simulate this experiment a large
number of times. As I simulate dice rolls, I keep track of the number of "sums of 6" I
observe and the relative frequency

Number of sixes
--------------- .
Number of tosses
In the computer I toss two dice 1000 times. On the graph below, I plot the relative
frequency of "sum of 6" against the number of experiments.

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Assessing Probability

Note that there is a lot of variation in the relative frequencies for a few
experiments. As I toss the dice more times, the relative frequencies
appear to settle down. I would guess from the graph that the true
probability that I get a sum equal to 6 is just under .15. In fact, the
actual probability is equal to .139.

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Assessing Probability
Subjective Probability:

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The multiplication rule

Multiplication rule
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these ways a
second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be
performed together in n1n2 ways.
Example
How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of
dice is thrown once?
Solution : The first die can land face-up in any one of n1 = 6 ways. For each of
these 6 ways, the second die can also land face-up in n2 = 6 ways. Therefore,
the pair of dice can land in n1n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible ways.

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The multiplication rule

Example
A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice
of Tudor, rustic, colonial, and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story,
and split-level floor plans. In how many different ways can a buyer order
one of these homes?

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The multiplication rule

Since n1 = 4 and n2 = 3, a buyer must choose from n1n2 =

(4)(3) = 12 possible homes. The answers to the two
preceding examples can be verified by constructing tree
diagrams and counting the various paths along the
branches.

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The generalized multiplication rule

For instance, If an operation can be performed in n1
ways, and if for each of these a second operation can
be performed in n2 ways, and for each of the first two
a third operation can be performed in n3 ways, and
so forth, then the sequence of k operations can be
performed in n1n2 nk ways.

Example
Suppose, for instance, that a customer wishes to buy a new cell
phone and can choose from n1 = 5 brands, n2 = 5 sets of
capability, and n3 = 4 colors. These three classifications result in
n1n2n3 = (5)(5)(4) = 100 different ways for a customer to order
one of these phones.
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A permutation
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set
of objects.
Consider the three letters a, b, and c. The possible
permutations are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba. Thus,
we see that there are 6 distinct arrangements
There are n1 = 3 choices for the first position. No
matter which letter is chosen, there are always n2 = 2
choices for the second position. No matter which two
letters are chosen for the first two positions, there is
only n3 = 1 choice for the last position, giving a total
of n1n2n3 = (3)(2)(1) = 6 permutations
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A permutation

The number of permutations of n objects is n!.

When using permutations, the order is important

The number of permutations of the four letters a, b, c,
and d will be 4! = 24.
Now consider the number of permutations that are
possible by taking two letters at a time from four. These
would be ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, and
dc.
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A permutation
we have two positions to fill, with n1 = 4 choices for the
first and then n2 = 3 choices for the second, for a total
of n1n2 = (4)(3) = 12 permutations. In general, n
distinct objects taken r at a time can be arranged in
n(n 1)(n 2) (n r + 1) ways.
We represent this product by the symbol
.

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A permutation

A joke: A "combination lock" should really be called a

"permutation lock". The order you put the numbers in
matters. (A true "combination lock" would accept both 1017-23 and 23-17-10 as correct.)

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A permutation
Example 1
Consider arranging 3 letters: A, B, C. How many ways can this be done?
Solution 1
The possible permutations are
ABC, ACB,
BAC, BCA,
CAB, CBA.
Hence, there are six distinct arrangements.
Another way of looking at this question is by drawing 3 boxes.

Any one of the A, B, C goes into the first box (3 ways to do this), and then the
remaining one of the two letters goes into the second box (2 ways to do this),
and the last remaining letter goes into the third box (only one way left to do this).
Hence, total no of ways 321=6

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A permutation
Example

A doctor has three examination rooms. There are six patients in

the waiting room. In how many different ways can the patients
be assigned to the examination rooms?

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A permutation
Permutations of Different Kinds of Objects

The number of different permutations of n objects of which n1 are of one

kind, n2 are of a second kind, ...nk are of a k-th kind is
n!n1!n2!n3...nk!

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A permutation
Example
In how many ways can the six letters of the word
"mammal" be arranged in a row?
Solutions

since we have repetitions.

Since there are 3 "m"s and 2 "a"s in the word "mammal", we have:
6!3!2!=60
There is one "L" in "mammal", but it does not affect the answer, since 1! = 1

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A permutation
Example
In how many ways can a supermarket manager display 5 brands of cereals
in 3 spaces on a shelf?
Solution

This is asking for the number of permutations, since we don't want

repetitions.
The number of ways is: 60

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Combinations

A combination is an unordered grouping of a

set. An excellent example of a combination
scenario is when you and your friends order pizza.
Whether you order pepperoni, mushrooms, and
onions, or you order mushrooms, onions, and
pepperoni doesnt matterits still the same pizza.
The most important thing to remember
combinations is order does not matter.

about

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Combinations
Example
Consider the selection of a set of 4 different letters from the
English alphabet.
Suppose
David selected A, E, R, T;
Karen selected D, E, N, Q; and
John selected R, E, A, T
Note: David and John selected the same set of letters, even though
they selected them in different order. Hence, these 3 people have
selected only 2 different sets of 4 letters (not 3 sets!!).

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Combinations
In many problems, we are interested in the number of
ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to
order.

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Combinations

Evaluate

C6.

8 7 6 5 4 3
Solution. C6 =
= 28.
1 2 3 4 5 6
8

Both the numerator and denominator have 6 factors. The entire

denominator cancels into the numerator. This will always be the case.

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Combinations

Evaluate

C6.

8 7 6 5 4 3
Solution. C6 =
= 28.
1 2 3 4 5 6
8

Both the numerator and denominator have 6 factors. The entire

denominator cancels into the numerator. This will always be the case.

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Combinations

Permutations are for lists (order

matters) and combinations are
for groups (order doesnt
matter).

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Combinations
Example

How many ways can a student choose four out of six

questions in an examination

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Combinations
Example
There are 12 people entering a room where there are only 10 chairs. How
many ways can two people be chosen to remain standing?

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Combinations
Example
There are 12 people entering a room where there are only 10 chairs. How
many ways can two people be chosen to remain standing?

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Combinations
Example
Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 engineers, a
committee
consisting
of
2 mathematicians
and 3 engineers is to be formed. In how many ways
can this be done if

(a) any mathematician and any engineer can be

included?
(b) one particular engineer must be in the
committee?
(c) two particular mathematicians cannot be in the
committee?
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Combinations
Example

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Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is simply a way of representing a sequence of
events. Tree diagrams are particularly useful in probability since
they record all possible outcomes in a clear and uncomplicated
manner.

Here is a tree diagram for the toss of a coin:

There are two "branches" (Heads and Tails)

- The probability of each branch is written on the branch

- The outcome is written at the end of the branch

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Tree Diagram
We can extend the tree diagram to two tosses of a coin:

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Tree Diagram
How do we calculate the overall probabilities?
- We

multiply probabilities along the branches

- We add probabilities down columns

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Tree Diagram
Now we can see such things as:
- The

probability of "Head, Head" is 0.50.5 = 0.25

- All probabilities add to 1.0 (which is always a good check)

- The probability of getting at least one Head from two
tosses is 0.25+0.25+0.25 = 0.75
- ... and more

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Tree Diagram

That
was
a
simple
example
using independent events (each toss of a
coin is independent of the previous toss),
but tree diagrams are really wonderful for
figuring out dependent events (where an
event depends on what happens in the
previous event) like this example:

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Tree Diagram
Picturing the Probabilities

Imagine I roll an ordinary die three times, and I'm interested in the
probability of getting number six. I might draw a tree diagram like this:

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Tree Diagram
Picturing the Probabilities

Imagine I roll an ordinary die three times, and I'm interested in the
probability of getting one, two or three sixes. I might draw a tree diagram
like this:

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Tree Diagram

Check that you agree with the probabilities at the end of each branch before
reading on.
We can now work out:
1/216
P(three sixes) = 1216
P(exactly two sixes) = 15216
15/216
75/216
P(exactly one six) = 75216
125/216
P(no sixes) = 125216

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Tree Diagram

Example: Soccer Game

You are off to soccer, and love being the
Goalkeeper, but that depends who is the Coach
today:
with Coach
Goalkeeper is
with Coach
Goalkeeper is

Sam the probability of being

0.5
Alex the probability of being
0.3

Sam is Coach more often ... about 6 out of

every 10 games (a probability of 0.6).
So, what is the probability you will be a
Goalkeeper today?
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Tree Diagram
Let's build the tree diagram. First we show the two possible coaches: Sam or
Alex:

The probability of getting Sam is 0.6, so the probability of Alex must be 0.4
(together the probability is 1)
Now, if you get Sam, there is 0.5 probability of being Goalie (and 0.5 of not
being Goalie):

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Tree Diagram
If you get Alex, there is 0.3 probability of being Goalie (and 0.7 not):

The tree diagram is complete, now let's calculate the overall probabilities. This
is done by multiplying each probability along the "branches" of the tree.
Here is how to do it for the "Sam, Yes" branch:
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Tree Diagram

(When we take the 0.6 chance of Sam being coach and include the 0.5 chance
that Sam will let you be Goalkeeper we end up with an 0.3 chance.)
But we are not done yet! We haven't included Alex as Coach:

An 0.4 chance of Alex as Coach, followed by an 0.3 chance gives 0.12.

Now we add the column:

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Tree Diagram
0.3 + 0.12 = 0.42 probability of being a Goalkeeper today
(That is a 42% chance)

Check
One final step: complete the calculations and make sure they add to 1:

0.3 + 0.3 + 0.12 + 0.28 = 1

Yes, it all adds up.

Conclusion
So there you go, when in doubt draw a tree diagram, multiply along the
branches and add the columns. Make sure all probabilities add to 1 and you are
good to go.

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Probability Concepts
Now you are qualified use Probability Concepts!

The factorial 69! Is the largest factorial most calculator can handle

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