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Simple Analytical Model Sl. No Year Month Actual Sales (D) Forecast (F) A-F

This document contains two tables showing actual and forecasted sales data for 10 months from 2014 to 2015 using two different analytical models: a simple model and a revised model. The simple model shows higher errors between actual and forecasted sales compared to the revised model which reduces the errors and improves accuracy based on a mean squared error and mean absolute deviation analysis. A trend analysis is also performed on the actual sales data showing a linear trend line that can be used to forecast future months.

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Naw Az
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
11 views17 pages

Simple Analytical Model Sl. No Year Month Actual Sales (D) Forecast (F) A-F

This document contains two tables showing actual and forecasted sales data for 10 months from 2014 to 2015 using two different analytical models: a simple model and a revised model. The simple model shows higher errors between actual and forecasted sales compared to the revised model which reduces the errors and improves accuracy based on a mean squared error and mean absolute deviation analysis. A trend analysis is also performed on the actual sales data showing a linear trend line that can be used to forecast future months.

Uploaded by

Naw Az
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simple analytical model

Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)


A-F
42
53
50
58
48
9.666667
49
54
-4.666667
55
52
2.666667
58
54
4
62
54
8
57
58
-1.333333
59

Revised analytical model

93.44444
21.77778
7.111111
16
64
1.777778

Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)


42
42
53
42
50
48.6
58
49
49
55
55
51
58
53
62
56
57
60

204.1111
34.01852
42
43.8
46.24
46.792
48.0336
49.42688
51.141504
51.3132032
53.25056256

0.6
A-F
0
11
1.4
8.56
-5.576
3.7696
4.50784
5.803136
-2.678746

44.7
48.09
48.363
49.7541
51.32787
53.32951
52.93066
55.35146

0
121
1.96
73.2736
31.09178
14.20988
20.32062
33.67639
7.175678
302.7079
33.63422
42
45.6
49.76
49.456
50.8736
52.52416
54.7145
53.6287
56.57722

42
46.5
51.25
50.125
51.5625
53.28125
55.64063
53.82031
57.41016

42
42
42
47.4
48.3
49.2
52.56
53.69
54.64
50.424
50.407
50.128
51.9696 52.2221 52.4256
53.78784 54.16663 54.48512
56.31514 56.84999 57.29702
53.72605
53.455 53.0594
58.09042 58.7365 59.41188

Simple analytical model


Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)


48
48
50
51
49
53
50
55
51
58
53
55
55
62
56
58.33333333

A-F

2.333333
3.333333
3.666667
5
-0.333333
6

Revised analytical model

5.444444
11.11111
13.44444
25
0.111111
36

Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

0.5
Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)
A-F
48
42
6
48
45
3
50
46.5
3.5
51
48
2.75
53
50
3.375
55
51
3.6875
58
53
4.84375
55
56
-0.578125
62
55
6.710938
59

91.11111
15.18519
42
43.8
46.24
46.792
48.0336
49.42688
51.141504
51.3132032
53.25056256

44.7
48.09
48.363
49.7541
51.32787
53.32951
52.93066
55.35146

36
9
12.25
7.5625
11.39063
13.59766
23.46191
0.334229
45.03668
158.6336
17.62596
42
45.6
49.76
49.456
50.8736
52.52416
54.7145
53.6287
56.57722

42
46.5
51.25
50.125
51.5625
53.28125
55.64063
53.82031
57.41016

42
42
42
47.4
48.3
49.2
52.56
53.69
54.64
50.424
50.407
50.128
51.9696 52.2221 52.4256
53.78784 54.16663 54.48512
56.31514 56.84999 57.29702
53.72605
53.455 53.0594
58.09042 58.7365 59.41188

Simple analytical model


Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)


41
44
39
51
41
58
45
55
49
51
55
60
55
55
55
55.33333333

A-F

9.666667
13.33333
5.666667
-3.666667
5.333333
-0.333333

Revised analytical model

93.44444
177.7778
32.11111
13.44444
28.44444
0.111111

Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

0.8
Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)
A-F
41
42
-1
44
41.2
2.8
39
43.44
-4.44
51
40
11.112
58
49
9.2224
55
56
-1.15552
51
55
-4.231104
60
52
8.153779
55
58
-3.369244

345.3333
57.55556
42
43.8
46.24
46.792
48.0336
49.42688
51.141504
51.3132032
53.25056256

44.7
48.09
48.363
49.7541
51.32787
53.32951
52.93066
55.35146

1
7.84
19.7136
123.4765
85.05266
1.335226
17.90224
66.48412
11.35181
334.1562
37.12847
42
45.6
49.76
49.456
50.8736
52.52416
54.7145
53.6287
56.57722

42
46.5
51.25
50.125
51.5625
53.28125
55.64063
53.82031
57.41016

42
42
42
47.4
48.3
49.2
52.56
53.69
54.64
50.424
50.407
50.128
51.9696 52.2221 52.4256
53.78784 54.16663 54.48512
56.31514 56.84999 57.29702
53.72605
53.455 53.0594
58.09042 58.7365 59.41188

Simple analytical model


Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
Actual sales (D) Forecast (F)
A-F
September
38
October
42
November
39
December
44
40
4.00
January
47
42
5.00
February
47
43
4.00
March
42
46
-4.00
April
45
45
0.00
May
51
45
6.00
June
46
Summation of (A-F)^2
(A-F)^2
Mean Squared error
MSE

Revised analytical model


(A-F)^2

16.00
25.00
16.00
16.00
0.00
36.00
109.00
18.17

Sl. No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

Month
Actual sales (D)
September
38
October
42
November
39
December
44
January
47
February
47
March
42
April
45
May
51
June
Summation of (A-F)^2
Mean Squared error

0.8
Forecast (F)
38
38
41
39
43
46
47
43
45
50

A-F
(A-F)^2
A-F (P)
0.00
0.00
0
4.00
16.00
4
-2.00
4.00
1
5.00
25.00
4
4.00
16.00
4
1.00
1.00
1
-5.00
25.00
5
2.00
4.00
2
6.00
36.00
6
(A-F)^2
MSE

127.00
14.11

27
3

MAD

ACCURACY ANALYSIS

MSE

Simple analytical model


N=3
19.48

Revised analytical model


=0.4
=0.5
=0.6
14.47
14.40
14.56

MAD

Exponential smoothing
3.44

Trend analysis
2.31

Year
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

n
t''
F''
b

Month
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
Total
9
5
43.89
1.17

Month No. (t) Actual sales (F)


1
38
2
42
3
39
4
44
5
47
6
47
7
42
8
45
9
51
45
395

Trend line eq.

Forecast
39
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
49

t^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
285

F*t
38
84
117
176
235
282
294
360
459
2045

A-F
1.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
2.00
20.00
2.222222

Trend estimat
55

F=1.1667t+38.056

50

f(x) = 1.166
R = 0.5965

45

Car ales forecast, F

40
35
30
0

st, F

2015
2015
2015
2015
2015

June
July
September
October
November

10
11
12
13
14

50
51
52
53
54

Trend estimation
55
50
f(x) = 1.1666666667x + 38.0555555556
R = 0.5965909091

45
40
35
30
0

Period, t

10

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