America Under Fire: An Analysis of Gun Violence in The United States and The Link To Weak Gun Laws

America Under Fire
An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States

and the Link to Weak Gun Laws
By Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend
October 2016
W W W.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG
America Under Fire

An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States
and the Link to Weak Gun Laws
By Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend
October 2016
Contents
1 Introduction and summary

4 10 indicators of gun violence and the Gun Violence Index
27 The link between high levels of gun violence and
weak state gun laws
32 Conclusion
34 Methodology
39 About the authors
40 Endnotes
Introduction and summary

One of the key questions in the gun debate is whether strong gun lawssuch
as requiring background checks for all gun sales; limiting who may carry guns
and where they may carry them; and providing increased oversight of the gun
industryare effective at reducing gun violence. This is not an easy question to answer, as there are myriad factors that may contribute to the rate of
gun violence in any community. In addition to easy access to guns facilitated
and enabled by weak gun laws, there are an interconnected web of social and
economic issues that can have an impact on rates of violence in a community,
such as persistent poverty, lack of employment and educational opportunities,
and a breakdown in the police-community relationship that imperils community safety. Much of the burden of day-to-day gun violence in this country falls
disproportionately on communities of color, which are often at the epicenter
of these related challenges. Another factor that may affect rates of gun deaths
in a state is the level of gun ownership in that state, which is difficult to assess
because of the lack of any comprehensive accounting of private gun ownership
in this country.1 And roughly two-thirds of gun deaths in the United States are
the result of suicide, which raises another set of questions regarding the role of
access to guns in contributing to high rates of suicide.
Despite the many factors that may contribute to rates of gun violence in a particular community, there is a robust and growing body of research that demonstrates
an undeniable correlation between certain strong gun laws and lower rates of
gun violence. A 2013 study by a group of public health researchers examined the
relationship between the overall strength of a states gun laws and rates of gun
deaths in the state and found that states with stronger gun laws had lower rates of
gun deaths than states with weaker gun laws.2 A 2011 study that analyzed statelevel data drew similar conclusions: Firearm-related deaths were significantly
lower in states that had enacted laws to ban assault weapons, require trigger locks,
and mandate safe storage of guns.3 Two studies led by Daniel Webster at the Johns
1 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health demonstrated the impact of state

laws requiring a permitand background checkbefore an individual can purchase a handgun. When Connecticut implemented this requirement, gun-related
homicides in the state fell 40 percent; when Missouri eliminated this requirement,
gun homicides increased 26 percent.4 And research conducted by Everytown for
Gun Safety, a nonprofit gun violence prevention advocacy group, found that states
that require universal background checks for all handgun sales have significantly
lower rates of intimate partner gun homicides of women, law enforcement officers
killed by handguns, and gun-related suicides.5
In 2013, the Center for American Progress conducted a study to assess the correlation between the relative strength or weakness of a states gun laws, as measured
by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, and rates of gun violence in the state
across 10 categories of gun violence or gun-related crimes. Consistent with the
research cited above, the CAP study found a strong correlation between strong
gun laws and lower rates of gun violence.6
In the 3.5 years since that study, a number of things have changed that warrant
revisiting that research. Many states have acted to strengthen their gun laws: Since
the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, eight states have enacted
laws to require universal background checksbringing the total number of states
that have enacted such laws to 18and 20 states have strengthened their laws to
help keep guns out of the hands of domestic abusers.7 Unfortunately, other states
have taken the opposite approach, loosening laws regarding where guns may be
carried and weakening or eliminating concealed carry permit requirements.8 In
addition, improvements made in the collection of data relating to gun violence
now allow more precise tracking of events such as mass shootings and fatal shootings by law enforcement officers.
In this report, the authors revisit CAPs 2013 analysis with a revised methodology, some new categories of gun violence, and updated state grades from the Law
Center to Prevent Gun Violence. The report provides a state ranking across 10
key indicators of gun violence, then uses these rankings to calculate an overall
Gun Violence Index score for each state. Using this score, the authors assessed the
correlation between the rate of overall gun violence in the state and the relative
strength or weakness of each states gun laws.
Once again, CAP finds a strong and significant link between weak gun laws and
high rates of gun violence. The 10 states with the weakest gun laws collectively
have an aggregate level of gun violence that is 3.2 times higher than the 10 states
with the strongest gun laws. And while this correlation does not prove a causal
relationship between stronger gun laws and fewer gun deaths, the link between
stronger gun laws and lower rates of gun violence cannot be ignored. As the gun
debate continues to churn, policymakers at all levels of government must take
action to close dangerous loopholes and enact strong gun laws to protect all of the
nations communities from this national disgrace.
10 indicators of gun violence

and the Gun Violence Index
In order to measure levels of gun violence for each state, CAP analyzed data relating to 10 different types of gun violence:
Rate of overall gun deaths per every 100,000 people, 2005-2014
Rate of gun suicides per every 100,000 people, 2005-2014
Rate of gun homicides per every 100,000 people, 2005-2014
Rate of fatal gun accidents per every 1 million people, 2005-2014
Rate of mass shootings per every 1 million people, 2006-2015
Rate of intimate partner gun homicides of women per every 1 million women,
2005-2014
Rate of gun deaths among people younger than age 21 per every 100,000 people
younger than age 21, 2005-2014
Rate of law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm per every 1
million people, 2005-2014
Rate of fatal shootings by police per every 1 million people, 2015-2016
Crime gun export rates per every 100,000 people, 2010-2015
For each of these indicators, the authors ranked the states from zero, defined as
the state with the lowest level of gun violence, to 100, defined as the state with the
highest level of gun violence. The remaining states were given values in between
depending on their place in the range. The authors then averaged the scores of the
10 indicators to calculate a final overall Gun Violence Index score for each state.
TABLE 1
Gun Violence Index ranking

Ranking
State
Gun
Violence
Index
Ranking
State
Gun
Violence
Index
Louisiana
75
26
Colorado
33
Alaska
66
27
Florida
33
Mississippi
61
28
Pennsylvania
32
West Virginia
60
29
Delaware
30
Alabama
59
30
Oregon
29
South Carolina
57
31
Vermont
29
Wyoming
56
32
Utah
29
Arizona
53
33
Michigan
28
Montana
51
34
Maryland
28
10
Oklahoma
51
35
Ohio
28
11
Nevada
50
36
Maine
27
12
New Mexico
50
37
Washington
26
13
Tennessee
49
38
California
26
14
Arkansas
47
39
Nebraska
26
15
Missouri
47
40
Illinois
23
16
Kentucky
46
41
Wisconsin
23
17
Georgia
44
42
New Hampshire
21
18
Kansas
40
43
Minnesota
17
19
South Dakota
39
44
Iowa
16
20
Indiana
38
45
Connecticut
12
21
North Carolina
38
46
New Jersey
12
22
Idaho
36
47
New York
11
23
Virginia
36
48
Rhode Island
24
North Dakota
35
49
Hawaii
25
Texas
34
50
Massachusetts
States in red indicate the 10 states with the highest levels of gun violence. States in green indicate the 10 states with the lowest levels of
gun violence.
Source: For full source information, please see the Methodology section of Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend, America Under Fire: An
Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States and the Link to Weak Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2016).
Table 1 presents the results of the Gun Violence Index for each state according to their placement in the national ranking. States with a higher score, closer
to 100, have higher overall rates of gun violence than states with a lower score,
closer to zero. The 10 states with the highest level of gun violence are Louisiana,
Alaska, Mississippi, West Virginia, Alabama, South Carolina, Wyoming, Arizona,
Montana, and Oklahoma. The 10 states with the lowest levels of gun violence are
Massachusetts, Hawaii, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Iowa,
Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.
FIGURE 1
Gun violence outcomes and ranking by state

VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
Level of gun violence

1-10 (highest)
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50 (lowest)
Source: For full source information, please see the Methodology section of Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend, America Under Fire:
An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States and the Link to Weak Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2016).
Overall gun deaths

The overall scope of gun violence in America is truly staggering. In 2014, more
than 33,000 people were killed with guns in the United States, amounting to
92 people killed with guns every day.9 The Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, or CDC, separates gun-related deaths into three broad categories
based on the intent of the shooter: intentional violence-related, accidental, and
suicide. There is also a small category for gun deaths for which the intent of the
shooter cannot be determined. Aggregating these categories gives a total picture
of overall gun deaths in the state. As illustrated in table 2, the rate of overall gun
deaths from 2005 to 2014 vary widely across the states and were particularly high
in Louisiana, Alaska, Mississippi, Alabama, and Wyoming. These states presented
rates higher than 16 gun deaths per every 100,000 residents. In contrast, Hawaii,
Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey presented
rates lower than six gun deaths per every 100,000 residents.
TABLE 2
Rate of overall gun deaths, 20052014

National average rate: 10.24 per every 100,000 people
Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Louisiana
18.78
100
26
Texas
10.73
49
Alaska
18.20
96
27
Pennsylvania
10.69
49
Mississippi
17.49
92
28
Oregon
10.62
49
Alabama
16.79
87
29
Maryland
10.45
48
Wyoming
16.27
84
30
Virginia
10.42
47
Arkansas
15.78
81
31
Ohio
9.96
45
Montana
15.58
80
32
Delaware
9.62
42
Tennessee
15.08
77
33
North Dakota
9.40
41
New Mexico
14.91
76
34
South Dakota
9.32
41
10
Nevada
14.74
75
35
Vermont
9.04
39
11
Oklahoma
14.71
74
36
Washington
8.90
38
12
Arizona
14.60
74
37
Maine
8.59
36
13
South Carolina
14.22
71
38
Illinois
8.41
35
14
West Virginia
13.94
70
39
Nebraska
8.35
34
15
Missouri
13.84
69
40
Wisconsin
8.28
34
16
Kentucky
13.44
66
41
California
8.25
34
17
Idaho
12.91
63
42
New Hampshire
6.94
26
18
Georgia
12.76
62
43
Minnesota
6.82
25
19
North Carolina
12.02
57
44
Iowa
6.78
25
20
Florida
11.60
55
45
New Jersey
5.26
15
21
Indiana
11.39
54
46
Connecticut
5.25
15
22
Michigan
11.33
53
47
New York
4.82
12
23
Utah
11.28
53
48
Rhode Island
4.00
24
Colorado
11.22
52
49
Massachusetts
3.39
25
Kansas
10.82
50
50
Hawaii
2.88
States in red indicate the 10 states with the highest rates. States in green indicate the 10 states with the lowest rates.
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Injury Prevention & Control: Data & Statistics (WISQARS): Fatal Injury Data,
available at http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal_injury_reports.html (last accessed June 2016).
Gun suicides
The largest category of gun deaths in the United States are gun-related suicides:
Roughly two-thirds of all gun deaths in this country are suicides. Access to firearms
significantly increases the risk that a suicide attempt will be fatal. While suicide
attempts involving methods other than guns have a 5 percent fatality rate, 85 percent
of suicide attempts with a firearm are fatal.10 People complete suicide more often
with a gun than with any other method: Of the more than 375,000 people who died
by suicide in the U.S. from 2005 to 2014, roughly half used a gun.11 A person dies by
gun-related suicide in the United States approximately every 30 minutes.12
Table 3 ranks the states based on the rate of gun suicides from 2005 to 2014,
which vary widely from state to state. While Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho,
and Nevada presented rates higher than 10 gun suicides per every 100,000
people from 2005 to 2014, 10 states presented rates lower than five gun suicides
per every 100,000 people.
TABLE 3
Rate of gun suicides, 20052014

Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Alaska
14.21
100
26
Maine
7.25
44
Wyoming
14.11
99
27
North Carolina
7.11
43
Montana
13.26
92
28
Indiana
6.97
42
Idaho
11.02
75
29
Florida
6.74
40
Nevada
10.33
69
30
Virginia
6.72
40
New Mexico
9.99
66
31
Washington
6.68
40
West Virginia
9.98
66
32
Texas
6.57
39
Oklahoma
9.87
65
33
New Hampshire
6.01
35
Utah
9.62
63
34
Pennsylvania
5.97
34
10
Arkansas
9.57
63
35
Wisconsin
5.96
34
11
Kentucky
9.47
62
36
Michigan
5.86
33
12
Arizona
9.36
61
37
Ohio
5.82
33
13
Alabama
9.03
59
38
Nebraska
5.74
32
14
Tennessee
9.01
58
39
Iowa
5.52
31
15
Mississippi
8.95
58
40
Minnesota
5.31
29
16
Colorado
8.70
56
41
Delaware
4.95
26
17
Oregon
8.68
56
42
Maryland
4.14
20
18
North Dakota
8.21
52
43
California
3.96
18
19
Louisiana
8.06
51
44
Illinois
3.40
14
19
South Carolina
8.06
51
45
Connecticut
2.68
21
South Dakota
8.03
51
46
Rhode Island
2.37
22
Missouri
7.95
50
47
New York
2.23
23
Vermont
7.82
49
48
Hawaii
2.20
24
Kansas
7.67
48
49
New Jersey
1.86
25
Georgia
7.32
45
50
Massachusetts
1.69
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Gun homicides
More than 30 people are murdered with a gun every day in the United States,
which amounts to a person being murdered with a gun every 48 minutes.13
Moreover, according to information from the CDC, close to 69 percent of all
homicides from 2005 to 2014 were committed with a gun, placing firearms as
the number one tool for homicides.14 The United States is an outlier among peer
nations when it comes to gun murders: The U.S. gun murder rate is 25 times
higher than the average rate of other high-income countries.15
Gun homicides have a disproportionate impact on communities of color in the
United States.16 While African Americans make up 14 percent of the national
population, they account for 56 percent of gun homicides.17 This discrepancy is
even more acute in a number of states. For example, while African Americans
make up 15 percent of the population in Michigan and New Jersey, they represent
80 percent and 75 percent of gun homicide victims in those states, respectively.
The Hispanic population in some states also experiences disproportionate rates of
gun violence. For example while Hispanics represent 29 percent and 12 percent of
the state population in Arizona and Rhode Island, they account for 49 percent and
39 percent of gun homicide victims in those states, respectively.18
Among states, the disparity in terms of rates of gun homicides is significant. The
average of the five states with the highest rates7.14 per every 100,000 populationis 10 times higher than the average of the five states with the lowest rates,
0.72 per every 100,000 population. Louisianas gun homicide rate alone is more
than two times higher than the national average rate and 29 percent higher than
Mississippis rate, the state that ranks second. In contrast, five states presented
rates lower than one gun homicide per every 100,000 people.
TABLE 4
Rate of gun homicides, 20052014

Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Louisiana
9.75
100
26
New Jersey
3.29
30
Mississippi
7.53
76
27
West Virginia
3.04
27
Alabama
6.90
69
28
Alaska
2.95
26
Maryland
5.96
59
29
Kansas
2.67
23
South Carolina
5.56
55
30
Connecticut
2.46
21
Arkansas
5.44
53
30
New York
2.46
21
Missouri
5.36
52
32
Nebraska
2.25
19
Michigan
5.22
51
33
Wisconsin
2.07
17
Tennessee
5.22
51
34
Colorado
2.06
17
10
Georgia
4.94
48
35
Washington
1.79
14
11
Illinois
4.72
45
36
Massachusetts
1.55
11
12
Arizona
4.69
45
36
Montana
1.55
11
13
Florida
4.57
44
38
Rhode Island
1.49
10
14
North Carolina
4.50
43
39
Wyoming
1.48
10
15
Delaware
4.44
42
40
Oregon
1.43
10
16
Pennsylvania
4.33
41
41
Minnesota
1.28
17
Oklahoma
4.25
40
42
Idaho
1.23
18
New Mexico
4.04
38
43
Utah
1.16
19
Indiana
3.92
37
44
Maine
1.01
20
California
3.91
37
45
Iowa
1.00
21
Nevada
3.87
36
46
Vermont
0.95
22
Ohio
3.81
36
47
South Dakota
0.75
23
Texas
3.78
35
48
North Dakota
0.74
24
Kentucky
3.31
30
49
New Hampshire
0.63
24
Virginia
3.31
30
50
Hawaii
0.54
Fatal gun accidents

A person is accidentally killed with a gun every 15 hours in the United States.19
While accidental gun deaths account for the smallest portion of overall gun
deaths, making up around 2 percent of annual gun deaths in the United States,
they often occur in the most tragic of circumstances and involve young children
who gain access to loaded guns that were improperly stored.20 And although these
numbers are small when compared to gun homicides or suicides, they are significant when placed in other contexts. For example, in 2015, more people were
fatally shot in the United States by toddlers with guns than by terrorists.21
Assessing the full scope of accidental gun deaths across states is a challenge,
as there are inconsistences in how the states code and report these deaths.22
However, the best available data come from the CDC; these data demonstrate
that Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia, and Tennessee had the
highest rates of accidental gun deaths from 2005 to 2014, with rates above five
per every 1 million people, while seven states had rates lower than one fatal gun
accident per every 1 million people.23
TABLE 5
Rate of fatal gun accidents, 20052014

National average rate: 1.9 per every 1 million people
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
Louisiana
7.6
100
25
Nevada
1.5
14
Mississippi
6.3
82
27
Colorado
1.4
13
Alabama
6.1
79
27
Illinois
1.4
13
West Virginia
5.7
73
27
Ohio
1.4
13
Tennessee
5.3
68
27
Virginia
1.4
13
Wyoming
4.7
59
31
Oregon
1.3
11
Arkansas
4.6
58
32
California
1.2
10
Kentucky
4.2
52
32
Florida
1.2
10
Montana
4.2
52
32
Iowa
1.2
10
10
South Carolina
4.1
51
32
New Hampshire
1.2
10
11
Oklahoma
3.9
48
36
Michigan
1.1
12
Alaska
3.7
45
36
Utah
1.1
13
Idaho
3.4
41
36
Washington
1.1
14
Missouri
3.3
39
39
Wisconsin
0.9
15
South Dakota
3.2
38
40
Minnesota
0.8
16
Georgia
2.9
34
41
Connecticut
0.7
17
North Carolina
2.8
32
41
Massachusetts
0.7
18
Indiana
2.5
28
43
New Jersey
0.6
18
North Dakota
2.5
28
43
New York
0.6
20
Nebraska
2.3
25
45
Maryland
0.5
20
Pennsylvania
2.3
25
Delaware
22
Kansas
2.2
24
Hawaii
23
Texas
2.1
23
Maine
24
New Mexico
1.8
18
Rhode Island
25
Arizona
1.5
14
Vermont
available at http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal_injury_reports.html (last accessed June 2016). The CDC does not provide data for states that reported fewer than 10
deaths during this period.
Mass shootings
While mass shootings constitute a very small part of gun violence in the United
States, they often receive the most attention from the media and policymakers and
tend to grip the nation. These incidents are generally not representative of the daily
toll of gun violence experienced in many communities, yet they have a substantial
impact on the gun debate. Recent research also suggests that, while infrequent, mass
shootings have increased in the United States: One study found that public mass
shootings that resulted in four or more fatalities have tripled since 2011.24
In recent years, increased efforts have been made to track mass shootings in real
timenot only the episodes of random, public shootings, but also incidents
in which multiple people are shot in the context of domestic violence or other
interpersonal disputes. There are a few different ways to measure mass shootings
in the United States. Some sources count all incidents where four or more people
are shot, regardless of the number of fatalities, while other sourcesincluding the
Federal Bureau of Investigation, or FBIinclude only those incidents in which
four or more people are killed.
This report uses the data collected by USA Today, which tracks all mass shootings that result in the death of four or more people. According to these data, six
states did not have any mass shooting incidents in which four or more people were
killed from 2006 to 2015. The remaining states presented at least one such mass
shooting during this period.25 North Dakota, West Virginia, Kansas, Wyoming,
Louisiana, and South Carolina presented rates that were more than two times
higher than the national average. Meanwhile, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and
Pennsylvania had rates lower than 0.025 mass shootings per every million people.
TABLE 6
Rate of mass shootings, 20062015

National average rate: 0.083 per every one million people
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
North Dakota
0.294
100
25
Utah
0.073
25
West Virginia
0.217
74
27
Texas
0.072
25
Kansas
0.212
72
28
California
0.070
24
Wyoming
0.180
61
29
Maryland
0.069
24
Louisiana
0.177
60
30
Georgia
0.062
21
South Carolina
0.175
59
31
Michigan
0.060
21
Vermont
0.160
54
32
Connecticut
0.056
19
Arizona
0.158
54
33
North Carolina
0.053
18
Maine
0.151
51
34
Oregon
0.053
18
10
Missouri
0.134
46
35
New Mexico
0.049
17
11
South Dakota
0.123
42
36
Colorado
0.040
14
12
Washington
0.120
41
37
Minnesota
0.038
13
13
Nebraska
0.110
37
38
Arkansas
0.035
12
14
Oklahoma
0.107
36
39
Iowa
0.033
11
15
Wisconsin
0.106
36
40
New York
0.031
11
16
Alabama
0.105
36
41
Pennsylvania
0.024
17
Montana
0.102
34
42
New Jersey
0.023
18
Indiana
0.093
32
43
Massachusetts
0.015
19
Kentucky
0.093
31
50
Alaska
0.000
20
Illinois
0.086
29
50
Delaware
0.000
21
Tennessee
0.079
27
50
Hawaii
0.000
22
Ohio
0.078
27
50
Idaho
0.000
23
Virginia
0.075
26
50
Mississippi
0.000
24
Nevada
0.075
25
50
New Hampshire
0.000
25
Florida
0.074
25
50
Rhode Island
0.000
Source: Center of American Progress analysis of USA Today, Behind the Bloodshed, available at http://www.gannett-cdn.com/GDContent/mass-killings/index.html#title
(last accessed June 2016). According to this source, seven states did not report any mass shootings during the 20062015 period.
Intimate partner gun homicides of women

The deadly intersection between domestic violence and gun violence has been
well established. When domestic abusers have easy access to guns, the risk that
a woman will be murdered increases exponentially: When a gun is present in
the home, the risk of lethal violence against women by a relative or an intimate
partner is eight times higher than in homes without a gun and is 20 times greater
when there is a previous history of domestic violence.26 A previous CAP analysis found that, from 2005 to 2014, roughly one-third of murders of American
women were committed by an intimate partner and half of those homicides were
committed with a gun.27
Review of the FBI Supplemental Homicide Data reveals that South Carolina,
Louisiana, Nevada, Tennessee, and Oklahoma have the highest rates of intimate
partner gun homicides against women from 2005 to 2014. In contrast, Illinois and
Massachusetts present rates lower than one case per every 1 million women.
TABLE 7
Rate of intimate partner gun homicides of women, 20052014

National average rate: 3.71 per every one million women
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
women
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
women
Score
South Carolina
7.69
100
26
Indiana
3.57
43
Louisiana
6.93
89
27
Kansas
3.50
42
Nevada
6.43
83
28
Vermont
3.47
41
Tennessee
6.07
77
29
South Dakota
3.45
41
Oklahoma
6.00
77
30
Delaware
3.26
39
Georgia
5.70
72
31
California
3.05
36
Arizona
5.64
72
32
Maryland
2.89
33
Kentucky
5.42
69
33
Washington
2.72
31
Alaska
5.33
67
34
Michigan
2.67
30
10
Texas
5.32
67
35
Ohio
2.61
30
11
West Virginia
5.24
66
36
Utah
2.51
28
12
Missouri
5.00
63
37
Nebraska
2.40
27
13
Alabama
4.67
58
38
Minnesota
2.25
25
14
Virginia
4.64
58
39
Connecticut
2.13
23
15
North Carolina
4.49
56
40
Wisconsin
2.10
23
16
Montana
4.48
56
41
New Hampshire
1.95
20
17
Mississippi
4.41
54
42
New York
1.83
19
18
New Mexico
4.38
54
43
North Dakota
1.79
18
19
Oregon
4.16
51
44
New Jersey
1.73
17
20
Arkansas
4.14
51
45
Hawaii
1.63
16
21
Wyoming
4.04
49
46
Iowa
1.56
15
22
Pennsylvania
4.02
49
47
Rhode Island
1.47
14
23
Idaho
4.01
49
48
Massachusetts
0.80
24
Colorado
3.93
48
49
Illinois
0.48
25
Maine
3.84
47
Florida
Source: Center of American Progress analysis of Federal Bureau of Investigation, Supplemental Homicide Data (U.S. Department of Justice, 20052014). Intimate partner
includes boyfriends, girlfriends, husbands, wives, ex-wives, ex-husbands, common-law wives, and common law husbands. The state of Florida does not report information
to the FBI and therefore is not included in this ranking.
Gun deaths among people younger than age 21

The impact of gun violence falls disproportionately on young people in the United
States. In 2015, gun violence surpassed car accidents as the leading cause of death
of Millennials in this country.28 Once again, America is an outlier when it comes
to gun violence: The rate of gun-related homicides among young people in the
United States is 49 times higher than peer nations.29
Louisiana tops the states for having the highest rate of gun deaths of people
younger than age 21 with a rate that is more than twice as high as the national
average. Hawaii presents less than one gun death per every 100,000 people
younger than age 21.
TABLE 8
Rate of gun deaths among people younger than age 21, 20052014
National average rate: 4.13 per every 100,000 people under 21
Ranking
State
Rate per every

100,000 people
younger than
age 21
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per every

100,000 people
younger than
age 21
Score
Louisiana
9.24
100
26
Idaho
4.08
41
Alaska
8.06
86
27
Ohio
4.00
40
Mississippi
6.17
65
28
Kansas
3.88
39
Missouri
6.08
64
29
Virginia
3.84
38
Alabama
6.07
64
30
West Virginia
3.80
38
New Mexico
5.56
58
31
Kentucky
3.68
36
Montana
5.55
58
32
Texas
3.65
36
Wyoming
5.55
58
33
South Dakota
3.64
36
Illinois
5.30
55
34
Nebraska
3.43
33
10
Oklahoma
5.22
54
35
Colorado
3.38
33
11
South Carolina
5.17
53
36
Wisconsin
3.22
31
12
Tennessee
5.15
53
37
Washington
2.80
26
13
Arkansas
5.14
53
38
Oregon
2.73
25
14
Maryland
5.12
53
39
New Jersey
2.66
25
15
Arizona
5.00
51
40
Vermont
2.65
25
15
Michigan
5.00
51
41
Utah
2.60
24
17
Pennsylvania
4.77
49
42
Minnesota
2.47
22
18
Nevada
4.67
48
43
Iowa
2.41
22
19
North Dakota
4.56
46
44
New York
2.31
21
20
Delaware
4.50
46
45
Connecticut
2.22
20
21
Florida
4.40
45
46
Maine
2.10
18
22
California
4.31
44
46
Rhode Island
2.10
18
23
Georgia
4.28
43
48
Massachusetts
1.77
14
24
Indiana
4.25
43
49
New Hampshire
1.70
14
25
North Carolina
4.20
42
50
Hawaii
0.51
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Injury Prevention & Control: Data & Statistics (WISQARS): Fatal Injury Data, available at http://www.cdc.gov/
injury/wisqars/fatal_injury_reports.html (last accessed June 2016).
Law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm

There are approximately 900,000 sworn law-enforcement officers in the United
States who often face substantial risks in the performance of their duties to protect community safety.30 According to the National Law Enforcement Officers
Memorial Fund, from 2006 to 2015, 1,439 officers were killed in the line of duty,
both as a result of attacks on officers and accidents.31 According to the FBI, more
than 90 percent of officers who were fatally assaulted in the line of duty from
2005 to 2014 were killed with guns.32 The risks faced by officers were tragically
highlighted in a number of recent incidents, including and the murder of a police
officer on her first day of work in Virginia in February 2016 while she and fellow
officers were responding to a domestic violence call, and the ambush attacks of
police officers in Dallas and Baton Rouge in July 2016.33
Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Kansas, and West
Virginia presented the highest rates of law enforcement officers being killed with
a gun while Wyoming, Vermont, Nebraska, Maine, and Connecticut did not have
any such incidents during this time period.
TABLE 9
Rate of law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm, 20052014

National average rate: 0.16 officers per every one million people
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Alaska
0.568
100
26
North Dakota
0.147
26
Louisiana
0.376
66
27
Minnesota
0.132
23
Mississippi
0.372
66
28
Tennessee
0.127
22
South Dakota
0.369
65
29
Kentucky
0.116
20
New Hampshire
0.304
54
30
Ohio
0.113
20
Kansas
0.282
50
31
Delaware
0.112
20
West Virginia
0.271
48
32
Michigan
0.111
19
Arizona
0.268
47
33
California
0.110
19
Alabama
0.211
37
34
Illinois
0.110
19
10
Georgia
0.208
37
35
Rhode Island
0.095
17
11
Arkansas
0.207
37
36
New York
0.088
15
12
Montana
0.203
36
37
Maryland
0.087
15
13
New Mexico
0.197
35
38
Oklahoma
0.081
14
14
South Carolina
0.196
35
39
Hawaii
0.074
13
15
Nevada
0.187
33
40
New Jersey
0.068
12
16
Missouri
0.185
33
41
Iowa
0.066
12
17
Utah
0.184
32
42
Idaho
0.065
11
18
Pennsylvania
0.182
32
43
Massachusetts
0.061
11
19
Virginia
0.176
31
44
Wisconsin
0.053
20
Florida
0.175
31
45
Oregon
0.053
21
North Carolina
0.170
30
50
Connecticut
0.000
22
Washington
0.165
29
50
Maine
0.000
23
Texas
0.160
28
50
Nebraska
0.000
24
Colorado
0.160
28
50
Vermont
0.000
25
Indiana
0.155
27
50
Wyoming
0.000
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports: Law Enforcement Officers Killed & Assaulted, available at https://
www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka (last accessed June 2016). Connecticut, Maine, Nebraska, Vermont, and Wyoming did not present any cases from 2005 to 2014.
Fatal shootings by police

The use of lethal force by police officers has been a top concern in many communities for decadesparticularly communities of color that have a deep and
complicated history with policeand has been part of a larger conversation about
police-community relations in cities across the country.34 This issue gained new
national attention after the shooting death of Michael Brown by police in Ferguson,
Missouri, in August 2014 and a number of other unarmed black men in the two
years since. One of the most troubling revelations in the wake of Browns death was
the lack of reliable, complete, and timely data on how frequently police officers use
lethal force in the course of their duties. While the FBI has purported to collect
this information as part of the Uniform Crime Reporting program, those data have
been notoriously incomplete.35 In 2015, two news organizations, The Guardian and
The Washington Post attempted to fill this gap by launching real-time data collection
projects that track incidents involving use of lethal force by police officers.36 These
efforts have created a much more robust source of data to measure the frequency
with which officers use deadly force and the circumstances of those incidents. This
has allowed numerous journalists and researchers to study these incidents and has
resulted in a new body of research about use of lethal force by police.37
These new data on shootings by police allowed the authors of this report to assess
both sides of fatal encounters between police and the communitynot just the
rates at which officers are shot and killed, which was one of the indicators considered in the 2013 reportbut also the frequency of fatal shootings by police. Many
of these fatal shootings by police will be deemed justified by the criminal justice
system as a lawful use of force; however, they still represent part of the full picture
of what gun violence looks like in many communities.
Using data from The Guardian, the authors were able to measure fatal shootings by
police in every state from January 2015 through July 2016. The table below shows
that New Mexico is by far the state with the highest rate of police officers fatally
shooting individuals, which is more than three times higher than the national
average. On the other hand, Rhode Island, New York, and Connecticut have rates
lower than one per every 1 million people.
TABLE 10
Rate of fatal shootings by police, 20152016

National average rate: 2.79 per every one million people
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every one
million
people
Score
New Mexico
8.87
100
26
Georgia
2.34
20
Wyoming
6.85
75
27
Wisconsin
2.26
19
Alaska
6.11
66
28
Kansas
2.24
19
Oklahoma
6.08
66
29
Arkansas
2.19
18
Arizona
5.09
54
30
Delaware
2.15
18
Nevada
4.80
50
31
North Carolina
2.07
17
Colorado
4.42
46
32
Indiana
2.05
17
Louisiana
4.20
43
33
Maryland
2.01
16
South Dakota
4.12
42
34
Washington
1.99
16
10
Montana
3.92
40
35
Ohio
1.90
15
11
West Virginia
3.78
38
36
Virginia
1.87
14
12
Alabama
3.61
36
37
Minnesota
1.75
13
13
California
3.56
35
38
Vermont
1.60
11
14
Oregon
3.29
32
39
Illinois
1.55
10
15
Nebraska
3.20
31
40
New Hampshire
1.51
10
16
Missouri
2.97
28
41
North Dakota
1.37
17
South Carolina
2.92
27
42
Iowa
1.29
18
Kentucky
2.84
26
43
New Jersey
1.29
19
Texas
2.81
26
44
Massachusetts
1.26
20
Idaho
2.77
25
45
Pennsylvania
1.21
21
Mississippi
2.67
24
46
Michigan
1.21
22
Tennessee
2.61
23
47
Maine
1.13
23
Florida
2.56
23
48
Rhode Island
0.95
24
Hawaii
2.47
22
49
New York
0.91
25
Utah
2.39
21
50
Connecticut
0.69
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of The Guardian, The Counted: People killed by police in the US, available at http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/nginteractive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database (last accessed August 2016). For 2016, this report only considers those cases between January and July.
Crime gun export rates

Guns do not respect state boundaries; the patchwork of inconsistent gun laws
from state to state has contributed to a dynamic in which crime guns often move
from states with weak gun laws to states with stronger gun laws. State and local
law enforcement can submit all guns recovered in connection with crime to the
U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, or ATF, to determine
the first point of sale and the first legal purchaser of that gun. ATF then aggregates
information about crime guns recovered in each state in annual trace data reports,
which allows for an analysis of the movement of crime guns from state to state.
From 2010 to 2015 nearly 30 percent of all crime guns submitted for tracing
crossed state lines before being used in connection with a crime.38 Previous
research has demonstrated that states are not equal opportunity exports of crime
guns: A 2010 study by Mayors Against Illegal Guns found that just 10 states were
responsible for selling nearly half of the crime guns that had crossed state lines.39
According to ATF data, from 2010 to 2015, West Virginia and Mississippi had rates
of crime guns exported to other states that were more than twice the national average. New York, Hawaii, and New Jersey had the lowest rate of crime gun exports
with rates lower than three crime guns per every 100,000 people.
TABLE 11
Crime gun export rates, 20102015

Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
Ranking
State
Rate per
every
100,000
people
Score
West Virginia
52.1
100
26
Oregon
18.6
32
Mississippi
49.6
95
27
South Dakota
16.7
29
Alaska
39.0
74
28
North Dakota
16.6
28
Nevada
37.0
69
29
Ohio
15.7
27
South Carolina
36.1
68
30
Utah
15.3
26
Wyoming
34.2
64
31
Pennsylvania
14.9
25
Alabama
33.3
62
32
Colorado
14.1
23
Kentucky
33.1
62
33
Missouri
14.0
23
Virginia
31.6
59
34
Washington
13.2
21
10
Indiana
31.5
58
35
Florida
13.1
21
11
Arizona
30.3
56
36
Nebraska
11.8
19
12
Georgia
30.1
56
37
Iowa
11.7
19
13
Montana
29.7
55
38
Wisconsin
11.0
17
14
Arkansas
26.6
49
39
Maryland
10.9
17
15
Idaho
25.0
45
40
Texas
10.2
15
16
New Hampshire
23.7
43
41
Michigan
7.6
10
17
Louisiana
23.5
42
42
Illinois
6.8
18
Delaware
23.1
41
43
Connecticut
6.8
19
New Mexico
22.4
40
44
Minnesota
6.4
20
Vermont
21.6
39
45
Rhode Island
4.9
21
Oklahoma
20.9
37
46
California
4.5
22
North Carolina
20.7
37
47
Massachusetts
3.6
23
Kansas
20.3
36
48
New York
2.9
24
Tennessee
19.7
35
49
Hawaii
2.8
25
Maine
19.1
33
50
New Jersey
2.5
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Firearms Trace Data (20102015), available at https://www.atf.gov/
resource-center/data-statistics.
The link between high levels of gun

violence and weak state gun laws
As discussed above, there are numerous factors that influence rates of gun violence in any community and that could account for variations in the frequency
of different types of gun deaths from state to state. In this report, CAP seeks to
zero-in on one such factor and assess whether there is a relationship between the
strength of a states gun laws and the levels of gun violence in the state. In doing
so, this report does not discount the importance of those other factors, but rather
seeks to address one of the key questions in the national gun debate: whether gun
laws have an impact on reducing gun violence. In addition, the level of gun violence may vary widely within a state and increased rates in some cities may drive
up the statewide rates. In this report, the authors only consider statewide rates of
gun violence and the relationship to statewide gun laws.
To conduct this analysis, the authors used the 2015 Gun Law State Scorecard
prepared by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, or Law Center, which
ranks each state according to its gun laws and assigns each state a corresponding
grade. In the Scorecard, states received points for having enacted strong gun laws
designed to help keep communities safe by keeping guns out of the wrong hands,
such as laws requiring universal background checks; prohibiting domestic abusers
from possessing guns; limiting bulk gun purchases; and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. States lost points for having enacted laws that
jeopardize public safety, such as eliminating the permit requirement for carrying
concealed guns; expansive self-defense laws; and allowing guns in sensitive locations, such as schools and bars.40
The 10 states rated as having the weakest gun laws in 2015 are as follows:
The 10 states rated as having the strongest gun laws in 2015 are as follows:
Kansas
Mississippi
Wyoming
Arizona
Alaska
Idaho
Louisiana
Kentucky
Vermont
Missouri
California
Connecticut
New Jersey
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Hawaii
Illinois
Rhode Island
Delaware
Weak gun laws, bad results

Comparing the Gun Violence Index score for each state with the Law Centers scorecard, the authors found that there is a significant correlation between the strength
of a states gun laws and the levels of gun violence in the state: The 10 states with the
weakest gun laws collectively have an aggregate level of gun violence that is 3.2 times
higher than the average of the 10 states with the strongest gun laws.41
FIGURE 2
Average Gun Violence Index results

60
50
51
40
30
20
10
16
0
Ten states with the
strongest gun laws
Ten states with the

weakest gun laws
An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States and the Link to Weak Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2016);
Center for American Progress analysis of information from Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, "2015 Gun Law State Scorecard" (2015),
available at http://gunlawscorecard.org/.
Additionally, in each individual category of gun violence analyzed, the 10 states

with the weakest gun laws have collectively higher levels of gun violence than
the 10 states with the strongest gun laws and collectively present higher rates in
comparison to national average rates. These disparities are particularly clear on
fatal gun-related accidents, gun suicides, rates of crime guns exported to other
states, rates of law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a gun and overall
gun deaths. On the other hand, the 10 states with the strongest gun laws present
average rates that are lower than the national average rates across all 10 indicators.
FIGURE 3
Comparison of average rates of gun violence to the national average

Ten states with the weakest gun laws
Ten states with the strongest gun laws
+116%
120%
100%
80%
+65%
60%
40%
+42%
+34%
20%
+29%
+32%
+43%
+47%
+34%
+4%
National
Average
0%
-20%
-40%
-20%
-39%
-60%
-80%
Overall
gun
deaths
-51%
Gun
suicides
Gun
homicides
-25%
-57%
-58%
Fatal gun
accidents
Mass
shootings
-48%
-48%
-40%
-65%
Intimate
Gun deaths
Law
partner gun for people enforcement
homicides of
younger
officers
women
than age 21 feloniously
killed with
a firearm
Fatal
shootings
by police
Crime-gun
exports
Source: Center for American Progress analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Injury Prevention & Control: Data & Statistics (WISQARS): Fatal Injury Data, available at http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/dataRestriction_inj.html (last accessed June 2016); USA Today, Behind the Bloodshed, available at http://www.gannett-cdn.com/GDContent/mass-killings/index.html#title (last accessed June 2016);
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Supplemental Homicide Data (U.S. Department of Justice, 20052014); Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports: Law Enforcement Officers Killed & Assaulted,
available at https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka (last accessed June 2016); The Guardian, The Counted: People killed by police in the US, available at http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database (last accessed June 2016); Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Firearms Trace Data (20102015), available at https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics (last accessed July 2016); Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, "2015 Gun Law State Scorecard" (2015), available at http://gunlawscorecard.org/.
Of the 10 states with the weakest gun laws, nine are among the top-25 states with
the highest levels of gun violence in the country. In contrast, of the 10 states with
the strongest gun laws, all are among the 25 states with the lowest levels of gun
violence in the country, including the six states with the overall lowest levels of
gun violence in our index.
TABLE 12
Gun Violence Index ranking

States with the weakest and strongest gun laws
Ranking
State
Gun
Violence
Index
Ranking
State
Gun
Violence
Index
Louisiana
75
26
Colorado
33
Alaska
66
27
Florida
33
Mississippi
61
28
Pennsylvania
32
West Virginia
60
29
Delaware
30
Alabama
59
30
Oregon
29
South Carolina
57
31
Vermont
29
Wyoming
56
32
Utah
29
Arizona
53
33
Michigan
28
Montana
51
34
Maryland
28
10
Oklahoma
51
35
Ohio
28
11
Nevada
50
36
Maine
27
12
New Mexico
50
37
Washington
26
13
Tennessee
49
38
California
26
14
Arkansas
47
39
Nebraska
26
15
Missouri
47
40
Illinois
23
16
Kentucky
46
41
Wisconsin
23
17
Georgia
44
42
New Hampshire
21
18
Kansas
40
43
Minnesota
17
19
South Dakota
39
44
Iowa
16
20
Indiana
38
45
Connecticut
12
21
North Carolina
38
46
New Jersey
12
22
Idaho
36
47
New York
11
23
Virginia
36
48
Rhode Island
24
North Dakota
35
49
Hawaii
25
Texas
34
50
Massachusetts
States in red indicate the 10 states with the weakest gun laws. States in green indicate the 10 states with the strongest gun laws.
Source: For full source information, please see the Methodology section of Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend, America Under Fire: An
Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States and the Link to Weak Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2016).
Finally, by plotting the Gun Violence Index score for each state and the strength
each states gun laws, the authors find a clear correlation between these two variables. With a correlation coefficient of 0.71, this link is statistically significant and
visually apparent as shown on Figure 2. This means that states with stronger gun
laws tend to have lower levels of gun violence and, vice versa, states with weaker
gun laws tend to have higher levels of gun violence.42
FIGURE 4
Correlation between state gun laws and gun violence outcomes

Ten states with the weakest gun laws
Ten states with the strongest gun laws
100
KS
ID
VT
WY
KY AZ
MO
MS
AK
LA
Weakness of gun laws
80
Correlation coefficient=0.71
60
RI
40
DE
IL
HI
20
MA
NY
CT
NJ
MD
CA
0
0
20
40
60
80
Gun Violence Index results

An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States and the Link to Weak Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2016);
Center for American Progress analysis of information from Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, "2015 Gun Law State Scorecard" (2015),
available at http://gunlawscorecard.org/; Personal communication from Garrett McDonough, communications director, Law Center to
Prevent Gun Violence, December 21, 2015.
Conclusion
The United States of America is not the only country on Earth with violent or
dangerous people. We are not inherently more prone to violence. But we are the
only advanced country on Earth that sees this kind of mass violence erupt with
this kind of frequency. It doesnt happen in other advanced countries. Its not
even close. And as Ive said before, somehow weve become numb to it and we
start thinking that this is normal.
President Barack Obama, January 5, 201643
Gun violence is a uniquely American problem, and the intensely polarized politics
surrounding it can make it seem like an intractable one. But looking across the
vastly different experiences of the states reveals that high rates of gun deaths are
not inevitable and that there are policy options available to begin to stem the tide
of gun violence in many communities. While there are many factors that contribute to high rates of gun deaths and gun laws alone are not a panacea, CAPs
research in this report and the finding of a strong correlation between strong gun
laws and fewer gun deaths in the states sends a powerful message to lawmakers to
take a serious look at a number of smart laws that can have an impact on reducing
gun violence. Some of those policies include:
Closing the private-sale loophole and requiring background checks for all
gun sales
Banning or more strictly regulating the sale and possession of assault weapons
and high-capacity magazines
Prohibiting domestic abusers and stalkers from gun possession
Investing in community-based programs designed to address underlying root
causes of violence in impacted communities
Strengthening the federal law to penalize gun traffickers who flood vulnerable
communities with illegal guns
Increasing oversight of the gun industry
Requiring a permit to carry concealed, loaded guns in the community
Banning gun possession at certain sensitive locations, such as bars, houses of
worship, and schools
Methodology
Selecting the 10 measures
There are many different ways to measure gun violence and gun crime on the
state level. For this report the authors looked at 22 total possible indicators and
ultimately chose 10. One of the reasons these measures were selected was the
fact that these indicators came from reliable sources such as the National Center
for Injury Prevention at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the
Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and
Explosives, and several news outlets. The authors also selected these indicators
because data were available in each category for at least 45 states, allowing the
authors to access data for at least 90 percent of the states in each category. There
were also some types of gun violence that the authors were unable to measure
in a sufficient number of states and therefore chose not to include. In addition,
the authors could not include nonfatal gun injuries because the CDC does not
provide this information broken down by state.
The authors selected five indicators of gun violence that affect the overall population: overall gun deaths, gun suicides, gun homicides, accidental gun deaths and
mass shootings, defined as incidents in which four or more people were killed
in a single incident. They chose four categories of gun violence because of their
particular impact on vulnerable groups: rates of intimate partner gun homicides
against women, rates of gun deaths for people younger than age 21, rates of police
officers feloniously killed with a gun and rates of fatal shootings by police officers.
Finally, the authors include a measurement of illegal movement of guns across
states: the rate of crime guns exported to other states from 2010-2015.
Calculating the Gun Violence Index

Rates of overall gun deaths, gun suicides, gun homicides, fatal gun accidents and
gun deaths for people younger than age 21 were obtained directly from the CDC.
While age-adjusted rates do not apply for the latter indicator, the authors used
age-adjusted rates for the first four indicators to allow for a fairer comparison
between states with different age distributions.
Information regarding intimate partner gun homicides of women was obtained
from the FBI Supplementary Homicide Report, using cases with one victim and
one aggressor. Information on mass shootings was obtained from USA TODAY,
which maintains a real-time database of these incidents beginning in 2006 that has
been used by other researchers.44 Data on police feloniously killed with a firearm
were obtained from the FBI Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted reports.
Finally, data on fatal shootings by police were obtained from The Guardian,
which since 2015 has maintained a real-time database of these incidents. While
The Washington Post also monitors and collects real time information regarding
these incidents, the authors relied on The Guardians project because it presented
broader information.45 Data on crime-gun exports was drawn from the ATF
annual trace data reports.
With respect to calculating rates, the authors obtained the rate directly from the
CDC for the following categories: overall gun deaths, gun suicides, gun homicides, fatal gun accidents, and gun deaths among people younger than age 21.
For the remaining categories, the authors calculated the rates using population
data available from the CDC through 2014, which is consistent with population
data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Because the CDC does not provide
population data for 2015 or 2016, for those categories that include data from
those years, the authors used the population data available from previous years. In
order to obtain the rate of mass shootings from 2006 to 2015, the authors used the
population from 2005 to 2014. Similarly, to obtain the rate of fatal shootings by
police from 2015 to 2016, the authors used the 2013 and 2014 population. Finally,
for the rate of crime guns from 2010 to 2015, the authors used the 2014 population from the CDC as an approximation of the 2015 population. The authors are
confident that year-to-year variations in population do not significantly change
rates based on constant raw numbers.
The authors recognized that the rates of police officers feloniously killed with a
firearm and mass shootings are based on a small number of cases. However, given
the impact that these forms of gun violence have on the community, the authors
decided to include them as key indicators of gun violence.
To create the Gun Violence Index, the authors ranked each state according to
their rate of each indicator of gun violence. The state with the lowest level of
gun violence per indicator was given a zero and the state with the highest level
was given a 100. All remaining states that fall in between were given numbers
between 0 and 100 in proportion to their placement within the range. The result
for each state in each category was then averaged to obtain one aggregate Gun
Violence Index number for each state.
For those states that did not present data for a particular indicator, the authors
calculated the overall Gun Violence Index score by averaging the other nine
indicators without considering that particular category. For example, data were
not available on the rate of intimate partner gun homicides of women in Florida
or for the rate of accidental gun deaths in Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island,
and Vermont. Therefore, the authors did not consider these particular indicators
when calculating the final Gun Violence Index number for these states. Moreover,
if a source indicated that a state presented zero cases on a particular indicator,
the state was scored with a zero, indicating the lowest level of gun violence. For
example, according to the FBI data, there were no reported cases of police officers feloniously killed with a gun in Wyoming, Vermont, Nebraska, Maine, and
Connecticut. Therefore, these states were scored with a zero.
This ranking presents a relative comparison among states. This report does not
suggest that states with lower scores on the Gun Violence Index cannot improve
their gun violence outcomes.
The majority of the indicators in this report are presented per every 100,000
people. However, indicators such as mass shootings, police officers feloniously
killed with a gun, fatal shootings by police, and accidental gun deaths involved
relatively low raw numbers and were instead presented per every 1 million people. The rate of intimate partner gun homicides against women was presented per
every 1 million women. Additionally, the rate of gun deaths for people younger
than age 21 was estimated per every 100,000 people younger than age 21.
National rates or averages were obtained directly from the CDC for gun deaths, gun
suicides, gun homicides, fatal gun accidents, and gun deaths for people younger than
age 21. However, as other sources did not provide national rates for the remaining
categories, these were obtained by averaging the rates of the 50 states.
If states presented the same rate in a particular indicator, they were ranked equally.
This is why some states present the same ranking number. Some differences in
rates may not be illustrated due to decimal rounding.
Finally, it is important to note that some of the indicators may be underreported.
For example, crime gun trace data obtained from the ATF does not account for
all crime guns. This is because not all crime guns are recovered and not all those
that are recovered are later traced. Information on intimate partner gun homicides
against women is obtained from the FBI Supplementary Homicide Report, however,
many states report partial information into this dataset. Despite this limitation,
this indicator is the best source for intimate partner gun homicides against women
for a state-level analysis. Data on fatal gun accidents, categorized by the CDC as
unintentional gun deaths, suffer from inconsistent coding across states, making
it difficult to compare states on this measure.
Measuring the strength of state gun laws

To assess the strength of each states laws, this report relies on the 2015 annual
Gun Law State Scorecard prepared by the Law Center to Prevent Gun
Violence.46 This organization considers 34 different categories of state laws and
awards points to states for enacting strong policies, such as requiring background
checks for all gun sales, prohibiting individuals who pose an increased risk to
public safety from buying or possessing guns, and regulating gun dealers. It also
deducts points for laws that weaken public safety, such as allowing concealed
carry of guns without a permit, expansive self-defense laws that eliminate any
duty to retreat, and allowing guns to be carried in sensitive locations, including
schools, bars, and houses of worship.47 The scores range from zero being the weakest gun laws to 100 being the strongest gun laws.48 However, for the purpose of
presenting a positive association, this report will use the inverse of these scores.49
Consequently, gun law scores used in this report will range from zero, indicating
the strongest gun laws to 100, indicating the weakest gun laws.
The Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence also provides a state ranking, as well as
an alphabetical grading system ranging from F to A+ that can be transformed into
a grade point average, or GPA. For this analysis, the authors chose to rely on the
inverse of the number of points awarded to a state, rather than the grade, because
doing so yields a more precise measure of the strength of a states gun laws and
allows one to observe variations in a states score that are not apparent from its
letter grade. For example, 26 states were awarded an F, yet the points awarded to
these states ranged from 2 to 17.50
In conducting the analysis in this report, the authors did not include the District
of Columbia, primarily because the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence does
not provide a score for the strength of gun laws in the District of Columbia.
Additionally many state-level reports exclude the District of Columbia because it
is more comparable to metropolitan areas or cities than to states.51
Correlation analysis
A correlation coefficient presents a measurement of the strength of the linear
relationship between two variables. It also measures the direction of this relation.
If it is a positive association, both variables would tend to decrease or increase
at the same time. However, a negative association means that while one variable increases, the other variable tends to decrease, or that while one variable
decreases, the other tends to increase. Correlation coefficients are always presented with values between -1 and 1. In this regard, correlation does not prove
causation and this report does not conclude that gun violence is solely explained
by weak gun laws. Nonetheless, a strong association, measured by the correlation
coefficient, does suggest a potential causal relationship.
About the authors

Chelsea Parsons is the Vice President of Guns and Crime Policy at the Center
for American Progress. Her work focuses on advocating for progressive laws and
policies relating to gun violence prevention and the criminal justice system at the
federal, state, and local levels. In this role, she has helped develop measures to
strengthen gun laws and reduce gun violence that have been included in federal
and state legislation and as part of President Barack Obamas January 2016 executive action announcement on gun violence prevention. Prior to joining the Center,
Parsons was general counsel to the New York City criminal justice coordinator, a
role in which she helped develop and implement criminal justice initiatives and
legislation in areas including human trafficking, sexual assault, family violence,
firearms, identity theft, indigent defense, and justice system improvements. She
previously served as an assistant New York state attorney general and a staff attorney law clerk for the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Eugenio Weigend is the Senior Policy Analyst for the Guns and Crime Policy
team at the Center for American Progress. His work has focused on public
security. He has conducted research on arms trafficking, organized crime and
violence, firearm regulations in the United States, and the illegal flow of weapons into Mexico. He has a Ph.D from Tecnologico de Monterrey and a masters
degree in public affairs from Brown University.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Arkadi Gerney for his contributions to this report.
Endnotes
1 Estimates of gun ownership in the United States are
based on survey data. See for example Bindu Kalesan
and others, Gun Ownership and social gun culture,
Injury Prevention (2015): 1-5, available at http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/early/2015/06/09/
injuryprev-2015-041586.full.pdf?keytype=ref&ijkey=do
j6vx0laFZMsQ2; Kate Masters, Why a New Survey From
Harvard and Northeastern Is the Most Authoritative
Assessment of American Gun Ownership in 20 Years,
The Trace, September 19, 2016, available at https://
www.thetrace.org/2016/09/harvard-northeastern-gunownership-survey-research/.
2 Eric W. Fleegler and others, Firearm Legislation and
Firearm-Related Fatalities in the United States, JAMA
Internal Medicine 173 (9) (2013): 732740.
3 Richard Florida, The Geography of Gun Deaths, The
Atlantic, January 13, 2011, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/01/the-geographyof-gun-deaths/69354/.
4 Daniel Webster, Cassandra Kercher Crifasi, and Jon S.
Vernick, Effects of the Repeal of Missouris Handgun
Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides, Journal of
Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine 91 (3) (2014): 293302; Daniel Webster, Cassandra
Kercher Crifasi, and Jon S. Vernick, Erratum to: Effects
of the Repeal of Missouris Handgun Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides, Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin
of the New York Academy of Medicine 91 (3) (2014):
598601.
5 Everytown for Gun Safety, Gun Background Checks Reduce Crime and Saves Lives (2015), available at http://
everytown.org/documents/2014/10/backgroundchecks-reduce-crimes-and-save-lives.pdf.
6 Arkadi Gerney, Chelsea Parsons, and Charles Posner,
America Under the Gun: A 50-State Analysis of Gun
Violence and Its Link to Weak State Gun Laws (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2013), available
at https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/
uploads/2013/04/AmericaUnderTheGun-3.pdf.
7 Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, Summary of
Enacted Laws since Newtown, available at http://
smartgunlaws.org/summary-of-enacted-laws-sincenewtown/ (last accessed October 2016).
8 Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, Concealed
Weapons Permitting, available at http://smartgunlaws.
org/gun-laws/policy-areas/firearms-in-public-places/
concealed-weapons-permitting/ (last accessed October
2016).
9 Center for American Progress analysis of Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, Injury Prevention &
Control: Data & Statistics (WISQARS): Fatal Injury Data,
available at http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal_injury_reports.html (last accessed September 2016);
Estimations are based on 2014 gun death figures.
10 Rebecca S. Spicer, and Ted R. Miller, Suicide Acts in 8
States: Incidence and Case Fatality Rates by Demographies and Method, American Journal of Public Health 90
(12) (2000): 1885-1891, available at http://www.ncbi.
nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1446422/pdf/11111261.
pdf; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Lethality of Suicide Method, available at https://www.hsph.
harvard.edu/means-matter/means-matter/case-fatality/ (last accessed October 2016).

Control: Data & Statistics (WISQARS): Fatal Injury Data.
12 Ibid.
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.
15 Erin Grinshteyn and David Hemenway, Violent Death
Rates: The US Compared with Other High-Income
OECD Countries, 2010, The American Journal of Medicine 219 (3) (2016): 266-273, available at http://www.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26551975.
16 Morriah Kaplan and Sophia Kerby, Top 10 Reasons Why
Communities of Color Should Care About Stricter GunViolence Prevention Laws, Center for American Progress, January 17, 2013, available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2013/01/17/49885/
top-10-reasons-why-communities-of-color-shouldcare-about-stricter-gun-violence-prevention-laws/.
18 Ibid.
19 Ibid.
20 Ibid.; Jennifer Mascia, Its Easy for Most American Kids
to Get a Gun Even If Their Parents Believe Otherwise,
The Trace, February 18, 2016, available at https://
www.thetrace.org/2016/02/child-gun-access-arizonashooting/; Michael Luo and Mike McIntire, Children
and Guns: The Hidden Toll, The New York Times,
September 28, 2013, available at http://www.nytimes.
com/2013/09/29/us/children-and-guns-the-hiddentoll.html?pagewanted=all.
21 Benjamin Powers, Toddlers Involved in More Shootings than Terrorists in 2015, The Huffington Post,
November 29, 2015, available at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/benjamin-powers/toddlers-involved-inmore_b_8650536.html.
22 See, e.g., Everytown for Gun Safety, Innocents Lost
(2014), available at https://everytownresearch.org/
reports/innocents_lost/; Maggie Koerth-Baker, What
Counts As An Accident? FiveThirtyEight, available at
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-accidents/ (last
accessed October 2016).
24 Amy P. Cohen, Deborah Azrael, and Matthew Miller,
Rate of Mass Shootings Has Tripled Since 2011,
Harvard Research Shows, Mother Jones, October 15,
2014, available at http://www.motherjones.com/
politics/2014/10/mass-shootings-increasing-harvardresearch.
25 USA Today, Behind the Bloodshed, available at http://
www.gannett-cdn.com/GDContent/mass-killings/
index.html#explore (last accessed October 2016).
26 Arthur L. Kellermann and others, Gun ownership as
a risk factor for homicide in the home, New England
Journal of Medicine 329(15) (1993): 1084-1091.
27 Arkadi Gerney and Chelsea Parsons, Women Under the

Gun: How Gun Violence Affects Women and 4 Policy
Solutions to Better Protect Them (Washington: Center
for American Progress, 2014), available at https://
www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-crime/report/2014/06/18/91998/women-under-the-gun/.
28 Chris Christoff and Ilan Kolet, American Gun Deaths
to Exceed Traffic Fatalities by 2015, Bloomberg
Business, December 19, 2012, available at http://
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-12-19/
american-gun-deaths-toexceed-traffic-fatalitiesby-2015; Chelsea Parsons and Anne Johnson, Young
Guns: How Gun Violence is Devastating the Millennial
Generation (Washington: Center for American Progress
and Generation Progress, 2014), available at https://
www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-crime/
report/2014/02/21/84491/youngguns-how-gunviolence-isdevastating-the-millennialgeneration.
29 Mark Berman, Americans are much, much more likely
to be killed by guns than people in other countries,
The Washington Post, February 3, 2016, available at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/
wp/2016/02/03/americans-are-much-much-morelikely-to-be-killed-by-guns-than-people-in-othercountries/?utm_term=.ebc7a7db0c91. Young people
in this study are defined by those between 15 and 24
years of age.
30 National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund,
Law Enforcement Facts, available at http://www.
nleomf.org/facts/enforcement/ (last accessed October
2016).
31 Ibid.
32 Ibid.; Center for American Progress analysis of Federal
Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports: Law
Enforcement Officers Killed & Assaulted, available at
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka (last accessed June 2016).
33 The Associated Press, New Virginia Officers Killed
on Domestic Violence Call, The New York Times,
February 28, 2016, available at http://www.nytimes.
com/2016/02/29/us/new-virginia-officer-killed-on-domestic-violence-call.html?_r=0; Andy Sullivan, Obama
tells police after killings: We have your backs, Reuters,
July 20, 2016, available at http://www.reuters.com/
article/us-usa-police-idUSKCN0ZX0MX.
34 For a discussion of the history of the intersection of policing and race, see Danyelle Solomon, The Intersection
of Policing and Race (Washington: Center for American
Progress, 2016), available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/report/2016/09/01/143357/
the-intersection-of-policing-and-race/.
35 Michele Jawando and Chelsea Parsons, 4 Ideas
That Could Begin to Reform the Criminal Justice
System and Improve Police-Community Relations
(Washington: Center for American Progress, 2014),
available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/
civil-liberties/report/2014/12/18/103578/4-ideas-thatcould-begin-to-reform-the-criminal-justice-systemand-improve-police-community-relations/.
36 The Guardian, The Counted: People killed by police in
the US, available at http://www.theguardian.com/usnews/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-policekillings-us-database# (last accessed August 2016); The
Washington Post, People shot dead by police this year,
available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/police-shootings/ (last accessed August
2016).
37 For example, The Washington Post review of its 2015

data revealed that, of the 965 people fatally shot
by police in 2015, 564 were armed with a gun and
281 were armed with another weapon; black men
accounted for 40 percent of unarmed men fatally
shot by police in 2015. Kimberly Kindy and others, A
Year of Reckoning: Police Fatally Shot Nearly 1,000,
The Washington Post, December 26, 2015, available
at http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/
wp/2015/12/26/2015/12/26/a-year-of-reckoningpolice-fatally-shoot-nearly-1000/. An analysis by The
Guardian of their 2015 data on all killings by police
officersnot just shootingsfound that young black
men were nine times more likely to be killed by police
officers than any other group. Jon Swaine and others,
Young black men killed by US police at higher rate
in year of 1,134 deaths, The Guardian, December 31,
2015, available at https://www.theguardian.com/
us-news/2015/dec/31/the-counted-police-killings2015-young-black-men.
38 Center for American Progress analysis of Bureau of
Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Firearms
Trace Data (2010-2015), available at https://www.atf.
gov/resource-center/data-statistics (last accessed July
2016).
39 Mayors Against Illegal Guns, Trace the Guns (2010),
available at http://tracetheguns.org/report.pdf.
40 Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, 2015 Gun Law
State Scorecard (2015), available at http://gunlawscorecard.org/; Personal communication from Garrett McDonough , communications director, Law Center
to Prevent Gun Violence, December 21, 2015.
41 This difference was statistically significant at a 95
percent confidence level.
42 Positive correlations between weak gun laws and each
of the 10 indicators of gun violence further support this
finding. The correlation between weak gun laws and
the ten indicators are as following: overall rate of gun
deaths (0.72); rate of gun suicides (0.80); rate of gun homicides (0.13); rate of fatal gun-related accidents (0.57);
rate of mass shootings (0.40); rate of intimate partner
gun homicides of women (0.61); rate of gun deaths
among people younger than age 21 (0.44); rate of law
enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm
(0.43); rate of fatal shootings by police (0.41); crime gun
export rate (0.66).
43 The White House, Remarks by the President on
Common-Sense Gun Safety Reform, Press release,
January 5, 2016, available at https://www.whitehouse.
gov/the-press-office/2016/01/05/remarks-presidentcommon-sense-gun-safety-reform.
44 For example, Matt Rocheleau, How many mass
shootings so far in 2016?, The Boston Globe, April 22,
2016, available at https://www.bostonglobe.com/
metro/2016/04/22/how-many-mass-shootings-havethere-been-far/Njdb2kV2BRa6dYjh3Ii9GJ/story.html.
45 The authors did a separate analysis using information
from The Washington Post. The results are consistent
and do not change significantly.
State Scorecard.
47 Ibid.; Personal communication from Garrett McDonough, communications director, Law Center to
Prevent Gun Violence, December 21, 2015.
48 Ibid.
49 In this report, the authors used the inverse of scores

provided by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence in
order to measure gun laws. Consequently, the authors
scores will range from zero, indicating the strongest
gun laws, to 100, indicating the weakest gun laws. For
example, the Law Center reports that California has a
score of 93.5; however, for the purposes of this report,
the authors will use its inverse of 6.5100 minus 93.5.

State Scorecard.
51 See for example, Albert Hermalin and Lisa Neidert,
Lifetime Migration in the United States as of 20062010: Measures, Patterns, and Application (Ann Arbor,
MI: Population Studies Center, 2014), available at http://
www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/pdf/rr14-832.pdf.
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America Under Fire

An Analysis of Gun Violence in the United States

America Under Fire

1 Introduction and summary

Introduction and summary

1 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health demonstrated the impact of state

2 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

3 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

10 indicators of gun violence

4 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Gun Violence Index ranking

5 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Gun violence outcomes and ranking by state

Level of gun violence

6 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Overall gun deaths

7 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Rate of overall gun deaths, 20052014

8 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

9 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Rate of gun suicides, 20052014

10 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

11 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Rate of gun homicides, 20052014

12 Center for American Progress | America Under Fire

Fatal gun accidents

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Rate of fatal gun accidents, 20052014

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Rate of mass shootings, 20062015

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Intimate partner gun homicides of women

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Rate of intimate partner gun homicides of women, 20052014

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Gun deaths among people younger than age 21

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Rate per every

Rate per every

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Law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm

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Rate of law enforcement officers feloniously killed with a firearm, 20052014

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Fatal shootings by police

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Rate of fatal shootings by police, 20152016

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Crime gun export rates

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Crime gun export rates, 20102015

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The link between high levels of gun

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Weak gun laws, bad results

Average Gun Violence Index results

Ten states with the