Cholamandalam Investment & Finance: Momentum Building Up
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance: Momentum Building Up
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance: Momentum Building Up
1 AUG 2016
NBFCs
Rs 1,152
Rs 1,208
Nifty
8,637
Sensex
28,003
CIFC IN
156
180 / 2,695
146
Rs 1,173/570
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
44.2
78.3
66.9
Relative (%)
34.8
65.5
67.3
53.13
10.48
FIIs
16.76
19.63
Source : BSE
Darpin Shah
[email protected]
+91-22-6171-7328
Parul Gulati
[email protected]
+91-22-6639-3035
Siji Philip
[email protected]
+91-22-6171-7324
Momentum building up
CIFCs 1Q earnings were a mixed bag. Its Vehicle
Finance (VF) segment continues to deliver strong
performance across parameters - disbursements
(+29%), AUM (+17%), GNPAs (-3% QoQ, despite a
seasonally weak quarter) and pre-tax RoA of 3.1%
(highest in 12 quarters). However, the Home Equity
(HE) business saw stress with drop in NIM (-60bps
QoQ), rise in NPL (15% QoQ) and pre-tax RoA of 2.6%
(-60bps QoQ, lowest in 20 qtrs) though disbursals
(+19%) and book growth (+20%) remained steady.
At 4.1xFY18E, CIFC trades at premium valuations vs.
peers. However, we continue to remain positive on
CIFC given its well-diversified geographic mix,
balance between cyclical VF business and steady HE
business. The recent rating upgrade, favourable
interest rate regime and improving leverage will
continue to drive ROAAs to 2.6% by FY19E. Further
provisions (avg. 1.02%) assumptions provide upside
risk to the RoAA improvement. Maintain BUY with a
revised TP of Rs 1,208 (3.5x Mar-19E ABV of Rs 345).
Financial Summary
(Rs mn)
Net Interest Income
PPOP
PAT
EPS (Rs)
ROAE (%)
ROAA (%)
Adj. BVPS (Rs)
P/ABV (x)
P/E (x)
1QFY17
5,536
3,340
1,657
10.6
1QFY16
4,863
2,774
1,103
7.7
YoY (%)
13.8
20.4
50.3
38.3
4QFY16
5993.7
3,948
1,920
12.3
QoQ (%)
(7.6)
(15.4)
(13.7)
(13.8)
FY16
17,372
12,980
5,685
36.4
18.0
2.20
194.1
5.94
31.7
FY17E
19,957
14,812
7,111
45.5
18.0
2.34
224.8
5.12
25.3
FY18E
23,890
17,857
9,188
58.8
19.8
2.52
280.7
4.10
19.6
FY19E
28,560
22,154
11,543
73.9
20.9
2.59
345.0
3.34
15.6
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
Page | 2
1QFY16
4,863
39
4,902
2,128
2,774
1,069
1,705
603
1,103
2QFY16
5,028
37
5,064
2,085
2,979
1,147
1,832
627
1,205
3QFY16
5,382
48
5,430
2,151
3,279
1,070
2,209
752
1,457
4QFY16
5,994
41
6,034
2,086
3,948
986
2,962
1,041
1,920
1QFY17
5,536
68
5,604
2,264
3,340
804
2,537
880
1,657
35.1
25.9
8.3
260.6
178.3
76.8
231.3
29.3
206.1
100.8
20.6
13.4
36.7
27.9
7.7
268.6
181.9
80.9
231.4
37.2
206.4
101.1
20.8
13.8
42.6
32.5
8.8
280.0
188.9
84.8
248.4
31.6
220.8
105.4
20.1
13.5
49.4
37.6
9.9
298.1
201.0
90.1
254.9
43.3
225.8
111.2
19.7
13.3
45.6
33.3
9.9
308.3
208.2
92.5
267.2
41.1
239.5
112.5
18.7
13.3
30.0%
28.5%
19.3%
18.3%
16.8%
20.4%
15.5%
40.2%
16.2%
11.6%
-183 bps
-8 bps
-7.7%
-11.5%
-0.3%
3.4%
3.6%
2.6%
4.8%
-5.0%
6.1%
1.2%
-95 bps
8 bps
15.3
9.9
5.4
7.6
43.4
35.3
15.3
9.9
5.4
7.6
41.2
34.2
15.3
9.6
5.7
7.8
39.6
34.1
15.7
9.5
6.1
8.3
34.6
35.2
14.5
9.4
5.1
7.3
40.4
34.7
-72 bps
-47 bps
-25 bps
-25 bps
-302 bps
-66 bps
-113 bps
-12 bps
-101 bps
-99 bps
582 bps
-48 bps
8,600
5,420
3.3
2.1
37.0
3.8
2.3
11,820
8,328
4.4
3.1
29.5
5.0
3.2
12,042
7,841
4.3
2.8
34.9
4.7
3.5
10,525
6,261
3.5
2.1
40.5
3.7
3.5
11,097
6,473
3.6
2.1
41.7
3.5
3.8
29.0%
19.4%
30 bps
2 bps
470 bps
-34 bps
152 bps
5.4%
3.4%
7 bps
0 bps
116 bps
-15 bps
30 bps
Page | 3
73%
1QFY17
22%
20%
76%
4QFY16
21%
76%
3QFY16
21%
76%
2QFY16
24%
74%
1QFY16
24%
73%
4QFY15
74%
3QFY15
24%
24%
72%
2QFY15
73%
1QFY15
22%
21%
76%
4QFY14
21%
78%
3QFY14
23
26
24
24
23
23
22
23
23
23
10
11
13
14
16
16
17
14
27
35
35
34
31
34
34
34
31
32
32
32
31
29
27
25
24
23
22
21
21
24
22
21
21
24
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
24%
76%
2QFY14
20%
80%
21
-20
12.5
40.0
400
50
10.0
30.0
300
40
20.0
200
10.0
100
10
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
20
4QFY14
5.0
30
3QFY14
7.5
2.5
20
4QFY15
25
3QFY15
10.0
2QFY15
20
Tractors
1QFY15
20.0
HCV
4QFY14
40
Used CV
3QFY14
30.0
LCV
2QFY14
60
Others
1QFY14
Growth (YoY %)
40.0
1QFY14
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
Home Equity
Segment-wise VF Disbursements
2QFY14
1QFY14
Vehicle Finance
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-10.0
3QFY14
Disbursements Business-wise
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2QFY14
Disbursements Rs bn - RHS
1QFY14
1QFY14
Page | 4
Vehicle finance
Vehicle AUM Rs bn
250
23 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 30
LCV
Used CV
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
Segment-wise VF AUM
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
0%
3QFY15
10.0
2QFY15
50
1QFY15
20%
4QFY14
20.0
76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 68 67 67 68
3QFY14
100
State-wise VF AUM
HCV
Tractors
Haryana Other
3%
states 8%
Car & 3W
100%
TN 8% AP (incl.
Telangana)
8%
KTK 5%
80%
Orissa 4%
60%
Mah 12%
UP 6%
40%
Delhi 3%
WB 5%
MP 6%
Kerala 4%
Punjab 5%
1QFY17
20.0
10.0
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
CC/WCDL
50%
0%
1QFY17
20.0
Sub debt
4QFY16
40.0
CPs
3QFY16
30.0
2QFY14
Raj 11%
2QFY16
60.0
Debentures
1QFY16
40.0
Bank loans
100%
4QFY15
80.0
1QFY14
Guj 5%
3QFY15
50.0
2QFY15
100.0
Chattisgarh
7%
YoY % (RHS)
1QFY15
1QFY14
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY14
40%
2QFY14
30.0
1QFY14
150
60%
0%
50.0
40.0
20%
200
80%
3QFY14
Others
2QFY14
Home equity
100%
1QFY14
2QFY14
Page | 5
C-AA - RHS
3.0
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
4.0
2.0
1.5
3.5
1.0
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2.0
-
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
4.0
5.0
2QFY15
1.0
6.0
1QFY15
2.0
Rs bn
4QFY14
3.0
10.0
3QFY14
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
4.0
2QFY15
2QFY14
NNPA %
1QFY15
5.0
4QFY14
3.0
1QFY14
0.5
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
2.0
1QFY14
32.0
3QFY14
3.0
2.5
2QFY14
10.0
4.0
3.5
42.0
1QFY14
5.0
12.0
37.0
7.0
14.0
2QFY14
47.0
16.0
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
14.0
HE Yields - RHS
HE NIMs
%
9.0
2QFY15
14.5
1QFY15
15.0
18.0
4QFY14
15.5
VH Yields - RHS
VH NIMs
3QFY14
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
2QFY14
NIMs
%
1QFY14
16.0
Cost
1QFY14
Yields - LHS
2QFY14
1QFY14
Page | 6
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
4QFY16
1QFY17
4QFY16
1QFY17
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
1QFY14
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
Pre-tax RoAA %
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
Home Equity
2.0
Pre-tax RoAA %
GNPA (%)
GNPA (%)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
Other income
Tax
Opex
RoA (RHS)
10.0
2.9
5.0
2.4
1.9
-5.0
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
1.4
2QFY15
-10.0
1QFY15
4QFY14
0.5
Vehicle Finance
3QFY14
500
2.5
2QFY14
1,000
3QFY14
1.5
1QFY14
2.0
1QFY14
We conservatively factor in
LLP of avg. 1.02% over FY1619E, while considering PCR
improvement
% of AUM (annu.)
1,500
Provisions Rs mn - RHS
2QFY14
Page | 7
Change In Estimates
Rs mn
NII
PPOP
PAT
Adj. BVPS (Rs)
Old
19,914
14,769
7,082
225
FY17E
New
19,957
14,812
7,111
225
FY18E
19.6
21.6
12.7
19.3
16.9
18.0
P/ABV (x)
FY16E FY17E
5.94
5.12
4.24
3.86
2.98
2.55
3.87
3.80
3.03
2.81
3.27
2.95
Change
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Old
23,644
17,747
8,974
279
FY18E
New
23,890
17,857
9,188
281
Change
1.0%
0.6%
2.4%
0.7%
Peer Valuations
NBFC
MCap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs)
Rating
TP
(Rs)
Chola
CAFL
LICHF
MMFS
SCUF
SHTF
180
68
264
192
130
295
1,152
750
522
341
1,971
1,299
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
BUY
1,208
715
547
340
1,896
1,434
ABV (Rs)
FY16E FY17E
194
225
177
194
175
205
86
88
651
701
397
440
FY18E
281
217
238
111
760
478
P/E (x)
FY16E FY17E
31.7
25.3
41.2
28.4
15.9
14.6
27.9
24.1
24.5
19.8
25.0
20.4
FY18E
4.10
3.46
2.19
3.01
2.59
2.72
ROAE (%)
FY16E FY17E
18.0
18.0
10.1
13.4
19.6
18.3
11.4
12.2
12.2
13.4
12.2
13.5
FY18E
19.8
15.5
18.2
13.8
14.0
13.7
ROAA (%)
FY16E FY17E FY18E
2.20
2.34
2.52
1.32
1.50
1.63
1.37
1.28
1.28
1.80
1.83
1.96
2.72
2.88
2.86
1.85
1.99
1.97
Page | 8
Income Statement
(Rs mn)
Interest Earned
Interest Expended
Net Interest Income
Other Income
Total Income
Total Operating Exp
PPOP
Provisions & Contingencies
PBT
Provision for Tax
PAT
Balance Sheet
FY15
33,366
19,604
13,762
3,545
17,307
7,489
9,818
3,247
6,571
2,221
4,350
FY16
37,880
20,508
17,372
4,057
21,429
8,449
12,980
4,272
8,708
3,023
5,685
FY17E
43,992
24,035
19,957
4,470
24,427
9,615
14,812
4,120
10,693
3,582
7,111
FY18E
52,921
29,031
23,890
5,110
29,000
11,143
17,857
4,346
13,511
4,324
9,188
FY19E
63,976
35,416
28,560
6,368
34,928
12,774
22,154
5,178
16,976
5,432
11,543
(Rs mn)
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital
Reserves
Net worth
Borrowings
Other Liabilities
Total liabilities
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
1,437
30,297
31,734
194,752
12,246
238,732
1,562
35,012
36,574
225,762
16,547
278,883
1,562
41,041
42,603
274,970
11,796
329,369
1,562
48,777
50,339
336,200
13,593
400,132
1,562
58,430
59,992
417,332
14,975
492,299
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Advances
Investments
Fixed assets
Other Assets
Total assets
221,835
675
683
15,539
238,732
259,101
666
1,113
18,003
278,883
309,342
766
1,280
17,982
329,369
378,225
880
1,472
19,555
400,132
469,499
1,012
1,693
20,095
492,299
Page | 9
Key Ratios
Valuation Ratios
EPS (Rs)
Earnings Growth (%)
BVPS (Rs)
Adj. BVPS (Rs)
ROAA (%)
ROAE (%)
P/E (x)
P/ABV (x)
P/PPOP (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability
Yield On Advances (%)
Cost Of Funds (%)
Core Spread (%)
NIM (%)
Operating Efficiency
Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%)
Cost-Income Ratio
Balance Sheet Structure Ratios
Loan Growth (%)
Borrowing Growth (%)
Equity/Assets (%)
Equity/Loans (%)
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
30.3
19.5
185.9
162.9
1.9
17.5
38.1
7.1
16.9
0.3
36.4
30.7
234.1
194.1
2.2
18.0
31.7
5.9
13.9
0.4
45.5
25.1
272.7
224.8
2.3
18.0
25.3
5.1
12.2
0.5
58.8
29.2
322.3
280.7
2.5
19.8
19.6
4.1
10.1
0.7
73.9
25.6
384.0
345.0
2.6
20.9
15.6
3.3
8.1
0.9
13.7
10.4
3.3
5.7
13.7
9.8
4.0
6.3
13.3
9.6
3.7
6.0
13.2
9.5
3.7
5.9
12.9
9.4
3.5
5.8
FY15
Asset Quality
Gross NPLs (Rs mn)
Net NPLs (Rs mn)
Gross NPLs (%)
Net NPLs (%)
Coverage Ratio (%)
Provision/Avg. Loans (%)
RoAA Tree
Net Interest Income
Non-interest Income
Operating Cost
Provisions
Tax
ROAA
Leverage (x)
ROAE
FY18E
FY19E
17,571.9
6,096.7
3.2
1.1
65.3
0.94
6.06%
1.56%
3.30%
1.43%
0.98%
1.92%
8.31
15.91%
FY16
6.71%
1.57%
3.26%
1.65%
1.17%
2.20%
7.58
16.64%
FY17E
6.56%
1.47%
3.16%
1.35%
1.18%
2.34%
7.68
17.96%
6.55%
1.40%
3.05%
1.19%
1.19%
2.52%
7.85
19.77%
6.40%
1.43%
2.86%
1.16%
1.22%
2.59%
8.1
20.92%
3.3
43.3
3.3
39.5
3.2
39.4
3.1
38.4
2.9
36.6
9.5
7.6
13.3
10.5
17.1
15.9
13.1
12.3
21.3
21.8
12.9
11.8
22.3
22.3
12.6
11.4
24.1
24.1
12.2
10.9
Page | 10
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Cholamandalam Invest.
Date
7-Oct-15
27-Oct-15
1-Feb-16
8-Apr-16
2-May-16
8-Jul-16
1-Aug-16
TP
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
400
CMP
641
602
646
740
799
961
1,152
Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
728
718
758
778
917
973
1,208
Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
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HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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