This document contains solutions to tutorial problems involving probabilities with normally distributed random variables.
Part A solves three problems: (i) calculates the probability a component length exceeds 120 cm, given a normal distribution with mean 117 cm and standard deviation 2.1 cm (answer is 0.0764); (ii) finds the probability the mean of 3 components exceeds 120 cm (answer is 0.007); (iii) explains the differences between problems (i) and (ii).
Part B solves problems about retirement ages: (a) calculates the probability a randomly selected male retires before 65, given a normal distribution with mean 63.7 years and standard deviation 3.1 years (answer is 0.6628); (
This document contains solutions to tutorial problems involving probabilities with normally distributed random variables.
Part A solves three problems: (i) calculates the probability a component length exceeds 120 cm, given a normal distribution with mean 117 cm and standard deviation 2.1 cm (answer is 0.0764); (ii) finds the probability the mean of 3 components exceeds 120 cm (answer is 0.007); (iii) explains the differences between problems (i) and (ii).
Part B solves problems about retirement ages: (a) calculates the probability a randomly selected male retires before 65, given a normal distribution with mean 63.7 years and standard deviation 3.1 years (answer is 0.6628); (
This document contains solutions to tutorial problems involving probabilities with normally distributed random variables.
Part A solves three problems: (i) calculates the probability a component length exceeds 120 cm, given a normal distribution with mean 117 cm and standard deviation 2.1 cm (answer is 0.0764); (ii) finds the probability the mean of 3 components exceeds 120 cm (answer is 0.007); (iii) explains the differences between problems (i) and (ii).
Part B solves problems about retirement ages: (a) calculates the probability a randomly selected male retires before 65, given a normal distribution with mean 63.7 years and standard deviation 3.1 years (answer is 0.6628); (
This document contains solutions to tutorial problems involving probabilities with normally distributed random variables.
Part A solves three problems: (i) calculates the probability a component length exceeds 120 cm, given a normal distribution with mean 117 cm and standard deviation 2.1 cm (answer is 0.0764); (ii) finds the probability the mean of 3 components exceeds 120 cm (answer is 0.007); (iii) explains the differences between problems (i) and (ii).
Part B solves problems about retirement ages: (a) calculates the probability a randomly selected male retires before 65, given a normal distribution with mean 63.7 years and standard deviation 3.1 years (answer is 0.6628); (
Part A: For all your answers, please remember to do the following: 1. Draw curves 2. State the distribution 3. Define the variable
A7.1 An automatic machine in a manufacturing process is operating properly if the lengths of an important subcomponent are normally distributed, with mean = 117 cm and standard deviation = 2.1 cm. If the machine is operating correctly: Let X = variable length of subcomponent (cm). Then if the machine is operating correctly, X ~ N (117, 2.12 ) . (i)
find the probability that one randomly selected unit has a length greater than 120 cm;
120 117 ) = P( Z > 1.4286) P( Z > 1.43)
2.1 = 1 P( Z < 1.43) = 1 0.9236 = 0.0764 X: P( X > 120) = P(
>
Alternative solution: P ( Z > 1.43) = P ( Z < 1.43) = 0.0764
(ii)
Z:
117
120
1.43
find the probability that if three units are randomly selected, their mean length exceeds 120 cm;
Let
X = mean length (cm), then
2 . 12 X ~ N 117 , 3
P(X > 120) = P(
X X 120 117 120 117 > ) = P(Z > ) = P(Z > 2.4744)
2.1 1.2124 n 3
X:
117
120
Z:
2.474
Using symmetry of curve, and then tables we find
P ( Z > 2.47) = P ( Z < 2.47) = 0.0068 0.007
(iii)
explain the differences between parts (i) and (ii).
In (i) we are considering the probability that a single item is longer than 120cm. The answer is about 0.076. In (ii) we are considering three separate items, but the question is whether their mean length is greater than 120cm. This will certainly happen if all three are longer than 120cm, but it can also happen when one or two are shorter than 120, so long as the average is above. However the mean is less variable than individual values, so the probability of the mean being above 120cm will be lower than the probability for an individual item.
Part B:
B7.2 A statistical analyst who works for a large insurance company is in the process of examining several pension plans. Company records show that the age at which its male clients retire is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 63.7 years and a standard deviation of 3.1 years. Let X=the retirement age (years).
X ~ N (63.7,3.12 ) (a) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected male client will retire before the age of 65 years. P(X < 65) = P(
X 65 63.7 < ) = P(Z < 0.42) = 0.6628
3.1
where Z is a standard normal variable.
X: Z:
63.7 65 0 0.42
(b) If a random sample of 50 male clients is to be selected from the company
database, what is the probability that the sample mean will be less than 65 years? LetX = the mean retirement age (years).
X ~ N (63.7,
3.12 ) 50 : Z:
63.7 0
65 2.96
P(X < 65) = P(
X X 65 63.7 < )
3.1 n 50
= P(Z < 2.96) = 0.9985
(in other words, almost certain.) (c) Close examination of the ages of recent retirees shows that the assumption of a normal distribution may be false. Which, if either, of your answers above would be changed by this information, and why? The assumption of a normal distribution was important in part (a) but not in part (b), because the central limit theorem tells us that for a large enough sample, (at least 30) X will be approximately normally distributed.
