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Perio D Dema ND Forec Ast Error Bias MAD TS

This document provides 6 examples of using different forecasting techniques including moving averages and simple exponential smoothing to forecast time series demand data. It asks the reader to calculate forecasts, errors metrics, and evaluate the quality and preference of different forecasting models based on minimizing MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and tracking signal.

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56 views5 pages

Perio D Dema ND Forec Ast Error Bias MAD TS

This document provides 6 examples of using different forecasting techniques including moving averages and simple exponential smoothing to forecast time series demand data. It asks the reader to calculate forecasts, errors metrics, and evaluate the quality and preference of different forecasting models based on minimizing MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and tracking signal.

Uploaded by

wws
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1) Given the following data for demand at the XYZ Company, calculate the monthly forecast for

2003 using a 3-month moving average. Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal. Is this a good
forecast?

2) Using data from the previous problem, calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using simple
exponential smoothing with = 0.2. The initial forecast on Jan 03 is 983. Calculate the MAD
and the tracking signal. How does this forecast compare with the previous one?
Perio
d
Oct
02
Nov
02
Dec
02
Jan 03
Feb
03
Mar
03
Apr
03
May
03
Jun 03
Jul 03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03

Dema
nd

Forec
ast

850
950
900
1000
950
1050
850
1100
900
1150
1100
900
1000
800

983.0

Error

BIAS

MAD

TS

Dec
03

1000

3) Weekly demand for pairs of pants at a Hot Topic store is as follows:

Estimate demand for the week 13 using a four-week moving average as well as simple
exponential smoothing with =0.1. Evaluate the MAD for each case. Which of the two methods
do you prefer? Why?
NOTE: For the simple exponential smoothing use the actual demand from the first period as the
forecast for the first period.

4. Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown below. Forecast the
monthly demand for Year 6 using the 3-period moving average and 4-period moving
average. Evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE and MSE. Evaluate the quality of the forecast
Sales
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Total

Year 1
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
6000
7000
6000
10000
12000
14000
8000
78000

Year 2
3000
4000
3000
5000
5000
8000
3000
8000
12000
12000
16000
10000
89000

Year 3
2000
5000
5000
3000
4000
6000
7000
10000
15000
15000
18000
8000
98000

Year 4
5000
4000
4000
2000
5000
7000
10000
14000
16000
16000
20000
12000
115000

Year 5
5000
2000
3000
2000
7000
6000
8000
10000
20000
20000
22000
8000
113000

5. Weekly Demand at Hot Pizza are as shown below. Estimate demand for the next four
weeks using a four-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with
alpha = 0.1 & alpha = 0.9, Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, Bias, and TS in each case.
Which of three forecasting models do you prefer? Why?
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Demand
108
116
118
124
96
119
96
102
112
102
92
91

6. Quarterly demand for flowers at a wholesaler are as shown. Forecast quarterly demand
for year 5 using simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE,
MSE, Bias and TS.
Year
1

Quarte
r
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

Perio
d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sales
98
106
109
133
130
116
133
116
138
130
147
141
144
142
165
173

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