Modernising Money Free Overview
Modernising Money Free Overview
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
10
Foreword
11
13
INTRODUCTION
21
27
29
1.
31
31
31
33
36
47
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50
53
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2.
3.
4.
5.
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117
127
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133
4.3 Evidence
Financial crises
Normal recessions
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139
145
147
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151
152
155
5.1 Inequality
155
158
159
160
160
162
162
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165
166
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173
6.
175
6.1 An overview
176
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7.
8.
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9.
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234
235
241
241
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10.
11.
256
9.6 Debt
260
9.7 Inequality
260
9.8 Environment
261
9.9 Democracy
263
265
265
265
267
269
270
274
274
274
274
275
275
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277
277
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CONCLUSION
Part 3 - Appendices
271
271
272
273
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279
285
288
295
297
301
303
303
303
304
305
306
309
310
311
311
313
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315
315
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316
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321
BIBLIOGRAPHY
323
336
FOREWORD
Money ranks with fire and the wheel as an invention without which the
modern world would be unimaginable. Unfortunately, out-of-control money
now injures more people than both out-of-control fires and wheels. Loss of
control stems from the privilege enjoyed by the private banking sector of
creating money from nothing and lending it at interest in the form of demand
deposits. This power derives from the current design of the banking system,
and can be corrected by moving to a system where new money can only be
created by a public body, working in the public interest.
This is simple to state, but difficult to bring about. Andrew Jackson and Ben
Dyson do a fine job of explaining the malfunctioning present banking system,
and showing the clear institutional reforms necessary for a sound monetary
system. The main ideas go back to the leading economic thinkers of 50 to 75
years ago, including Irving Fisher, Frank Knight and Frederick Soddy. This
book revives and modernises these ideas, and shows with clarity and in detail
why they must be a key part of economic reform today.
14 MODERNISING MONEY
16 MODERNISING MONEY
The state currently earns a profit, known as seigniorage, from the creation of
bank notes. However, because it has left the creation of electronic money in
the hands of the banking sector, it is the banks that earn a form of seigniorage
on 97% of the money supply. This is a significant and hidden subsidy to the
banking sector, and the loss of this seigniorage requires that higher taxes are
levied on the population.
The instability caused by the monetary system harms the environment. The
burden of servicing an inflated level of debt creates a drive for constant
growth, even when that growth is harmful to the environment and has limited
social benefit. When the inevitable recessions occur, regulations protecting
the environment are often discarded, as is longer-term thinking with regards
to the changes that need to be made. In addition, there is little control over
what banks invest in, meaning that they often opt for environmentally harmful projects over longer-term beneficial investments.
Finally, the current monetary system places incredible power in the hands of
banks that have no responsibility or accountability to society. The amount of
money created by the banking sector give it more power to shape the economy
than the whole of our elected government, yet there is very little understanding of this power. This is a significant democratic deficit.
18 MODERNISING MONEY
Conclusion
There are very real challenges facing the world over the next few decades,
including likely crises in food production, climate, energy, and natural
resources (including water). To focus on dealing with these extreme challenges, it is essential that we have a stable monetary system and are not
distracted by crises that are inevitable in the current monetary system. The
monetary system, being man-made and little more than a collection of rules
and computer systems, is easy to fix, once the political will is there and opposition from vested interests is overcome. The real challenges of how to provide
for a growing global population, a changing climate, and increasingly scarce
natural resources, require a monetary system that works for society and the
economy as a whole. For that reason, our current monetary system is no
longer fit for purpose and must be reformed.
INTRODUCTION
Of all the many ways of organising banking, the worst
is the one we have today.
Sir Mervyn King
Governor of the Bank of England, 2003 - 2013
October 25th 2010
After the experience of the last few years, few people would disagree with
Mervyn Kings claim above. The 2007-08 financial crisis led to massive
increases in unemployment and cuts to public services as governments around
the world were forced to bail out failing banks. While the complete collapse of
the financial system may have been averted, six years later the countries at the
centre of the crisis have still not recovered. In economic terms the permanent
loss to the world economy has been estimated at a staggering $60 - $200 trillion, between one and three years of global production. For the UK the figures
are between 1.8 and 7.4 trillion (Haldane, 2010).
Yet while the 2007/08 crisis was undoubtedly a surprise to many, it would be
wrong to think that banking crises are somehow rare events. In the UK there
has been a banking crisis on average once every 15 years since 1945 (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009), whilst worldwide there have been 147 banking crises
between 1970 and 2011 (Laeven and Valencia, 2012).
It seems clear that our banking system is fundamentally dysfunctional, yet
for all the millions of words of analysis in the press and financial papers, very
little has been written about the real reasons for why this is the case. Although
there are many problems with banking, the underlying issue is that successive
governments have ceded the responsibility of creating new money to banks.
Today, almost all of the money used by people and businesses across the world
is created not by the state or central banks (such as the Bank of England),
but by the private banking sector. Banks create new money, in the form of
22 MODERNISING MONEY
the numbers (deposits) that appear in bank accounts, through the accounting process used when they make loans. In the words of Sir Mervyn King,
Governor of the Bank of England from 2003-2013, When banks extend loans
to their customers, they create money by crediting their customers accounts.
(2012) Conversely, when people use those deposits to repay loans, the process
is reversed and money effectively disappears from the economy.
Allowing money to be created in this way affects us all. The current monetary
system is the reason we have such a pronounced and destructive cycle of boom
and bust, and it is the reason that individuals, businesses and governments are
overburdened with debt.
When banks feel confident and are willing to lend, new money is created.
Banks profit from the interest they charge on loans, and therefore incentivise
their staff to make loans (and create money) through bonuses, commissions
and other incentive schemes. These loans tend to be disproportionately allocated towards the financial and property markets as a result of banks preference for lending against collateral. As a result our economy has become
skewed towards property bubbles and speculation, while the public has
become buried under a mountain of debt. When the burden of debt becomes
too much for some borrowers, they default on their loans, putting the solvency
of their banks at risk. Worried about the state of the economy and the ability of
individuals and businesses to repay their loans, all banks reduce their lending,
harming businesses across the economy.
When banks make new loans at a slower rate than the rate at which their
old loans are repaid, the money supply starts to shrink. This restriction in
the money supply causes the economy to slow down, leading to job losses,
bankruptcies and defaults on debt, which lead to further losses for the banks,
which react by restricting their lending even further. This downward spiral
continues until the banks eventually regain their confidence and start creating new money again by increasing their lending.
We have no hope of living in a stable economy while the money supply - the
foundation of our economy - depends entirely on the lending activities of
banks that are chasing short-term profits. While the Bank of England maintains that it has the process of money creation under control, a quick glance
at the growth of the bank-issued money supply over the last 40 years (shown
opposite) calls this claim into question.
INTRODUCTION 23
Cash vs bank-issued money, 1964-2012
Cash vs Bank-Issued Money, 1964 - 2012
2500
2000
BANK-ISSUED MONEY
CASH
BILLIONS
1500
1000
500
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
24 MODERNISING MONEY
INTRODUCTION 25
There are four main objectives of the reforms outlined in this book:
1.
2.
3.
4.
In order to achieve these aims, the key element of the reforms is to remove
the ability of banks to create new money (in the form of bank deposits) when
they issue loans. The simplest way to do this is to require banks to make a clear
distinction between bank accounts where they promise to repay the customer
26 MODERNISING MONEY
on demand or with instant access, and other accounts where the customer
consciously requests their funds to be placed at risk and invested. Current
accounts are then converted into state-issued electronic currency, rather than
being promises to pay from a bank, and the payments system is functionally separated from the lending side of a banks business. The act of lending
would then involve transferring state-issued electronic currency from savers
to borrowers. Banks would become money brokers, rather than money creators, and the money supply would be stable regardless of whether banks are
currently expanding or contracting their lending.
Taken together, the reforms end the practice of fractional reserve banking, a
slightly inaccurate term used to describe a banking system where banks promise to repay all customers on demand despite being unable to do so. In late
2010 Mervyn King discussed such ideas in a speech:
A more fundamental, example [of reform] would be to divorce the payment
system from risky lending activity that is to prevent fractional reserve
banking In essence these proposals recognise that if banks undertake
risky activities then it is highly dangerous to allow such gambling to take
place on the same balance sheet as is used to support the payments system,
and other crucial parts of the financial infrastructure. And eliminating
fractional reserve banking explicitly recognises that the pretence that riskfree deposits can be supported by risky assets is alchemy. If there is a need
for genuinely safe deposits the only way they can be provided, while ensuring costs and benefits are fully aligned, is to insist such deposits do not
coexist with risky assets. (King, 2010)
After describing the current system as requiring a belief in financial alchemy,
King went on to say that, For a society to base its financial system on alchemy
is a poor advertisement for its rationality. Indeed, over the next few chapters
we expect readers to find themselves questioning the sanity of our existing
monetary system.
CHAPTER 1
A SHORT HISTORY OF MONEY
In this chapter we outline a brief history of money and banking. We start by
looking at the textbook history of the origins of money, before examining the
alternative accounts of historians and anthropologists, which contradict the
textbook history. We then discuss the development of banking in the United
Kingdom and its evolution up to the present day.
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CHAPTER 2
THE CURRENT MONETARY SYSTEM
In this chapter we build up an understanding of the monetary system. We start
by looking at the modern banking system, focussing on the role of the two key
players: commercial (high street) banks, and the central bank (the Bank of
England). We explain the fundamental business model of a modern bank and
then look at the mechanics by which commercial banks create (and destroy)
money and central banks create (and destroy) central bank reserves and cash.
This chapter provides enough knowledge of the existing banking system to
understand the analysis that follows in the rest of the book. However, for
those who would like a much more in-depth understanding of the modern
monetary system, the book Where Does Money Come From? published by the
New Economics Foundation is very highly recommended.
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CHAPTER 3
WHAT DETERMINES THE MONEY
SUPPLY?
In the previous chapter we saw that banks create money, in the form of bank
deposits, when they make loans and buy assets. In this chapter we discuss the
incentives banks have for creating money in this way, as well as looking at the
restrictions and regulations that prevent them from doing so.
We begin by looking at what determines the demand for bank loans, concluding that as a result of the distribution of wealth, the desire to speculate, and the
effect of various laws, the demand for credit will almost always be very high.
The demand for money is also discussed, as is the effect on the economy of any
attempt to pay down debts in aggregate.
Second, we will look at the incentives facing banks: given the high demand
for credit, why do banks not simply lend to every individual or business that
applies for a loan? We will see that due to the profit motive, financial innovations and some other institutional quirks, banks will attempt to lend as much
as they can as long as it is profitable for them to do so.
Third, we will look at the reaction of the regulators. Faced with a banking
sector that has a huge number of willing borrowers and an incentive to lend
to them, in the current institutional structure, is it possible to temper banks
natural desire to create credit? We will conclude that despite the wide variety
of tools available, none are particularly effective, and thus banks are relatively
unconstrained in their ability to create credit. The main determinant of bank
lending, and therefore the money supply, will be found to be the desire and
willingness of banks to lend, which in turn will rest on their confidence in the
wider economy, the profitability of lending and the likelihood that loans will
be repaid.
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CHAPTER 4
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM
Chapter 2 discussed the mechanics of bank lending, showing that when a bank
makes a loan it increases both the broad money supply and the level of debt in
the economy. Chapter 3 showed that banks profit from making loans, that the
demand for credit tends to be very high, and that banks face little constraint
on their ability to lend. Consequently, in the current monetary system it is the
commercial banks, rather than the central bank, which determine both the
quantity of money and debt in the economy, as well as the first use of newly
created money.
In this chapter we analyse the economic effects of such a monetary system. For
non-economists this chapter may be the most challenging, although we have
attempted to convey the theories as simply and with as little jargon as possible.
Some readers may wish to skip to Chapter 5 and return to this chapter after
reading the rest of the book.
We begin by looking at the short-run impact of bank lending, distinguishing
between lending to the productive and non-productive sectors of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effect of money created (via bank lending) to fund purchases of financial assets, in contrast to the effect of money
created to invest in businesses that contribute to GDP. We also consider the
links between asset and consumer price inflation.
The longer-run dynamic effects of bank lending on the economy are then
discussed with reference to Hyman Minskys Financial Instability Hypothesis. Minskys theory explores the role of the financial sector in driving the
boom-bust cycle, financial crises and debt deflation, showing that in the long
term stability is itself destabilising. Evidence for Minsky's theories will also be
examined.
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CHAPTER 5
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS OF THE CURRENT
MONETARY SYSTEM
The previous chapter discussed the economic effects of the current monetary
system, showing how through its normal functioning it could lead to booms,
busts, and occasionally financial crises and depressions. In this chapter we will
address some of the other impacts of the monetary system. In particular, we
will look at the effect of the monetary system on inequality, public and private
debt, the environment and the level of democracy.
5.1 Inequality
The current economic system depends on an adequate supply of money being
available for transactions between households, businesses and government.
However, as section 3.2 showed, for there to be a supply of money, some people
must be in debt. Even the small amount of cash money which is not created
by the commercial banking sector can only enter the economy in exchange
for bank deposits. Consequently, in effect the non-bank sector must rent the
entire money supply from commercial banks, resulting in a constant transfer
of wealth from the rest of the economy to the banking sector (through interest
payments).
In the UK the money supply currently stands at approximately 2 trillion.
Assuming an average interest rate of 8% on bank loans, in order to keep the
money supply at a constant level requires the non-bank sector to transfer 160
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CHAPTER 6
PREVENTING BANKS FROM
CREATING MONEY
Part One of this book critically examined the current monetary system. Chapters 1-2 began with a brief history of money and banking, before moving on to
discuss the mechanics of the current system. In particular we saw that banks
create money when they make loans. Chapter 3 looked at what determines
the demand and supply of credit, concluding that the high demand for credit
combined with ineffective regulations leaves the determination of the money
supply in the hands of the banks. Chapters 4 and 5 asked, given the structure
of the current monetary system, what is the likely result? The normal functioning of such a system was shown to result in periodic booms, busts, and
occasionally financial crises, depressions and even debt deflations, as well as
serious consequences for growth, unemployment, investment, house prices,
public and private debts, inequality, the environment, and democracy. With
such a wide array of negative consequences, we feel obliged to ask the question
first put forward by Mervyn King - of all the ways of organising money and
banking, is the best really the one we have today?
In the second part of this book we describe an alternative monetary system
that we believe addresses many of the weaknesses of the system we have today.
Chapters 6-8 outline how the reformed banking and monetary system would
work, contrasting this against the existing system, while Chapters 9-10 explain
the impacts of the reformed system. In this sense the second part of this book
parallels the first part: Chapters 6-8 correspond to Chapters 1-3, with Chapters 9-10 corresponding to Chapters 4-5.
In this chapter the new monetary system is introduced, beginning with the
different types of account available to customers and the new accounts at the
central bank. A description of the mechanics of how banks will make loans
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CHAPTER 7
THE NEW PROCESS FOR
CREATING MONEY
After the reform, banks would no longer be able to create money in the
form of bank deposits when they made loans or bought financial assets. As
a result, an alternative method for injecting money into the economy will be
required. However, before we address the question of how new money is to be
created, we first must address the questions:
1.
2.
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CHAPTER 8
MAKING THE TRANSITION
This chapter explains how we make the transition between the current system
and the reformed system. It is necessarily quite technical. Readers who wish
to avoid the balance sheets may skip this chapter, as the following chapters
assume that this process has already been completed.
The overnight switchover on a specified date when the demand deposits of banks will be converted into state-issued currency and customers
accounts will be converted into Transaction Accounts and Investment
Accounts.
2.
A longer period, potentially 10-30 years after the reforms, as the consequences of the conversion of demand deposits into state-issued currency
allows a significant reduction in household debt and a gradual reduction
in the size of the aggregated balance sheet of the banking sector.
The economy will be operating on the basis of the reformed monetary system
immediately following the switchover. However, it will take a longer period of
transition to recover from the hangover of debt created by the current debtbased monetary system. The monetary system cannot be considered fully
reformed until this process is complete.
The balance sheets for the Bank of England, the commercial banking sector
and the household sector (i.e. the non-bank sector) before, just after, and
around 20 years after the reforms take place are shown at the end of this chapter. An alternative accounting treatment of the reforms and these balance
sheets, in which money remains on the liabilities side of the central banks
balance sheet, can be found in Appendix III.
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CHAPTER 9
UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS OF
THE REFORMS
This chapter looks at the economic impacts of a monetary system where
money is issued solely by the state and injected into the economy through the
various mechanisms outlined in Chapter 7.
We begin by briefly summarising a few key differences between the current
monetary system and the reformed system. We then look at the likely impact
of banks lending and central bank money creation in a reformed system,
before addressing the reform's impact on financial stability and asset price
bubbles. Finally, we address the environmental and social impacts of a
reformed monetary system.
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CHAPTER 10
IMPACTS ON THE BANKING SECTOR
10.1 Impacts on commercial banks
The reforms outlined in Chapter 6 and 7 have both advantages and disadvantages for the banking and financial sector. These effects are discussed below.
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1. These figures were arrived at by adding together all sight deposit categories
(MFIs, public sector, private sector and non-residents Bank of England codes:
RPMB3GL, RPMB3MM, RPMB3NM, RPMB3OM) and all time deposit categories
CONCLUSION
When you start printing money, you create some value
for yourself. If you can issue a thousand pounds-worth
of IOUs to everybody, youve got a thousand pounds for
nothing. And so we do restrict the ability of people to
create their own [bank] notes Were protecting you
from charlatans.
Paul Fisher1
Executive Director, Bank of England
There is a curious contradiction at the heart of the contemporary monetary
system. While one agency of the state the police spend considerable
time and resources trying to prevent the private creation of paper money
(commonly referred to as counterfeiting), another agency of state the Bank
of England spends significantly more time enabling and facilitating the
private creation of money by the corporations that we know as banks. Banks
are able to create money because their IOUs (liabilities) can be used, via a
sophisticated electronic payment system, as a substitute for the paper money
issued by the state. These privately-issued IOUs now make up 97% of all the
money in the UK economy.
Yet as Paul Fishers quote attests, the Bank of England is clearly aware that the
ability to issue a thousand pounds-worth of IOUs gives the issuer something for nothing. In the last decade alone, UK banks have issued more than
a trillion pounds of additional IOUs. The value that they got for nothing was
a trillion pounds-worth of interest bearing assets in the form of debt contracts
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1.
APPENDIX I
EXAMPLES OF MONEY
CREATION BY THE STATE:
ZIMBABWE VS. PENNSYLVANIA
The common response to the idea of allowing the state to issue money and
spend it into the economy is that such an approach would be highly inflationary. The examples of the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic
Germany are often mentioned as a reason why states cannot be trusted to
issue currency. However, those making these claims rarely have any in-depth
understanding of what happened in Zimbabwe, Germany or any of the other
hyperinflationary periods. In reality, each period of hyperinflation happens
due to a unique set of circumstances that are completely inapplicable to the
UK or any of the countries where these reforms are likely to be implemented.
In this appendix we look first at the Zimbabwean experience between 2007
and 2008, as this is the most recent example of a hyperinflation. We also briefly
look at the period of hyperinflation in Weimar Republic Germany.
We then look at a Pennsylvanian money system in the 1720s, to show that if
managed properly, money creation can lead to a prosperous and low inflation
economy. Unfortunately there are few contemporary examples of responsible
state-issued currency; every country world-wide runs on some variant of the
banking system outlined in Chapter 2, and as a result has suffered significant
inflation and indebtedness (whether at a household or government level, or
both). In many cases, countries under the current system can only attempt to
keep inflation low by raising interest rates, which can stifle beneficial investment (Chang, 2007). Under the proposals outlined in this book, it would be
much more straightforward to maintain inflation at a reasonable level without
the need to use high investment-stifling interest rates.
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APPENDIX II
REDUCING THE NATIONAL DEBT
As discussed in Chapter 7, one potential use of newly created money could
be to pay down the existing national (government) debt. In this appendix
we explain the basic concepts necessary to understand the national debt. We
then discuss the reasons why in the context of these reforms, paying down the
national debt is not the top priority.
Taxes & fees - such as Income Tax, National Insurance, Value Added Tax
(VAT), taxes on alcohol, fuel, air tickets and so on.
2.
3.
Creation of money - the revenue from this source is miniscule under the
current monetary system.
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APPENDIX III
ACCOUNTING FOR THE MONEY
CREATION PROCESS
The reforms outlined in this book modernise the process by which money
creation is accounted for at the Bank of England and the Treasury.
Instead of treating money as a liability of the issuer (as is the current setup
for bank notes), we treat money as a token, issued by the state. This money is
accepted and used by people and businesses because they are confident they
can exchange these tokens with other people for goods or services of equivalent value. In general, if too many of these tokens are issued, their value will
fall, in terms of the amount of goods or services they can buy. This is inflation. Conversely, if insufficient tokens are issued, their value will rise this is
deflation.
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Ben Dyson has spent the last 5 years researching the current monetary system
and understanding the impacts it has on the economy and society as a whole.
He is the founder and director of Positive Money, a not-for-profit dedicated to
raising awareness of problems with our monetary system amongst the general
public, policy makers, think tanks, charities, academics and unions. He has
spoken at events around the UK, in Chicago, and for the BBC.
Ben can be contacted at [email protected]
You can keep in touch with Positive Money by signing up to its regular email
update at www.positivemoney.org