Supplement
Decision Making
PROBLEMS
1.
Williams Products
a. Break-even quantity
Q Fixed costs Unit price Unit variable costs
$60,000 $18 $6
5,000 units
The graphic approach is shown on the following illustration, using Break-Even Analysis
Solver of OM Explorer.
Two lines must be drawn:
Total Revenue = 18Q
Total Cost = 60,000+6Q
b. Profit = Total Revenue Total Cost
pQ F cQ $14.00 10, 000 $60, 000 ($6)10, 000
$140, 000 $120, 000 $20, 000
c. Profit = Total Revenue Total Cost
pQ F cQ $12.50 15,000 $60, 000 $6 15, 000
$187,500 $150, 000 $37,500
A-1
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A-2 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
Therefore, the strategy of using a price of $12.50 will result in a greater contribution to
profits.
d. Williams must also consider how this product fits within her existing product line from
the perspective of required technologies and distribution channels. Other marketing,
operations, and financial criteria must also be considered.
2.
Jennings Company
a. Break-even quantity
Q Fixed costs Unit price Unit variable costs
$80, 000 $22 $18
20, 000 units
The graphic approach is shown on the following graph created by the Break-Even
Analysis Solver.
Two lines are:
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Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
A-3
Two lines are:
Total Revenues: $22Q
Total costs: $80, 000 18Q
b. In order to calculate the new unit variable cost required to breakeven, use the breakeven
equation from part a, but solve for unit variable cost (c).
80, 000
17,500
22 c
80, 000 (22 c)17, 500
80, 000 385, 000 17,500c
c 17.43
Thus the variable cost would have to reduce from $18 per unit to $17.43 per unit.
c.
With a one dollar price decrease, the
breakeven quantity would be:
80, 000
26, 667
(22 1) 18
This quantity exceeds a 50% increase in sales (17,500 x 1.5) = 26,250
Thus, sales would have to increase by 52% (26,667/17,500=1.52) for Jennings to
breakeven with a $1 reduction in price.
d. Alternative 1: Sales increase by 30 percent, to 22,750 units (or 17,500 x 1.3).
Profit pQ F cQ
$2222,750 $80,000 $1822,750
$11,000
Alternative 2: Cost reduction to 85 percent results in $15.30 (or $18 x 0.85) unit cost.
Profit pQ F cQ
$2217,500 $80,000 $15.3017,500
$37,250
Therefore the cost reduction leads to much higher profits in this example.
e.
Initial unit profit is $22 $18 $4.00
Alternative 1: $22 $18 $4.00
The percentage change in profit margin is zero.
Alternative 2: $22 $15.30 $6.70
The percentage change is [($6.70$4)/4]100 =67.5% increase.
A-3
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A-4 PART 1
3.
Using Operations to Compete
Interactive television service
F p cQ
$15 $1015,000
$75,000
4.
Brook Trout
Q F p c
p F Q c
$10, 600 800 $6.70
$19.95
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Decision Making
5.
SUPPLEMENT A
Spartan Castings
a. Total cost Fixed cost Variable cost
TC F cQ
TC ( first process ) $350,000 $50Q
TC (sec ond process ) $150,000 $90Q
At the break-even quantity,
$350,000 $50Q $150,000 90Q
$200,000 $40Q
Q 5000 units
Beyond 5000 units the first process becomes more attractive.
b. At Q=10,000 units
TC ( first process ) $350,000 $50(10,000) $850,000
TC (sec ond process ) $150,000 $90(10,000) $1,050,000
The difference in total cost = $1,050,000 - $850,000 = $200,000
6.
News clipping service
Fm Fa $400,000 $1,300,000
227,848 clippings
a. Q
ca cm
$2.25 $6.20
b. Profit Total Revenue Total Cost
Current (manual) situation:
225,000 $8.00 $400,000 225,000 $6.20
Profit $5,000
Modernization:
900,000 $4.00 $1,300,000 900,000 $2.25
Profit $275,000
The clipping service should be modernized.
F
$1,300, 000
742,857 clippings
c. Q
p c $4.00 $2.25
7.
Hahn Manufacturing
a. Total cost of buying 750 units from the supplier:
TCb $1,500 unit 750 units $1,125,000
Total cost of making 750 units in-house:
TCm $1,100 unit $300 unit 750 units $40,000 $1,090,000
Therefore Hahn should make the components in-house, saving $35,000 per year.
b. At the break-even quantity, the total cost of the two alternatives will be equal:
$1,500Q $40,000 $1,400Q
100Q $40,000
Q 400 units
A-5
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A-5
A-6 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
c. If the decision is to buy, Hahn may get a quantity discount from the supplier (we
would be ordering 750 per year instead of the current 150 per year). Just a $50 per unit
quantity discount would make the buy alternative more attractive than the make
alternative. Because the component is a key item, Hahn should check the reliability of
the supplier and of their own processes. Reliability may argue for the make decision.
8 Current Profit= Price Variable cost Annual Volume Annual Fixed Costs .
$10.00 $5.00 30, 000 $140, 000
$10, 000
a. Profit with new equipment $10.00 $6.0050,000 $200,000 $0
Because the profit decreases, Techno should not buy the new equipment.
b. Profit with new equipment $11.00 $6.00 45,000 $200,000 $25,000
Because the profit increases, Techno should buy the new equipment if they also raise
the selling price.
9. This problem is a thinly disguised portrayal of an actual situation faced by Tri-State G&T
Association, Inc. of Thornton, Colorado, and which is common to many other REA Utilities.
However the costs, prices, and demands stated in the problem are fictional.
F
a. Q
pc
F
$82,500, 000
p c
$25 $107.5 per MWH
Q
1, 000, 000
b. Profit (or loss) Total Revenue Total Cost
1,000,000 95%$107.5 $82,500,000 1,000,000 95%$25
$102,125,000 $106,250,000
Loss $4,125,000
In order to break even, the price would have to be raised to
$4,125, 000
$107.5 950, 000 $111.842 , assuming even more conservation would not occur
at this higher price.
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
A-7
10. Earthquake ... Build or Buy. This problem is related to problem 9.
Build: F1 Qc1 $10,000,000 150,000MWH $35 $15,250,000
Buy: F2 Qc2 $0 150,000MWH $75 $11,250,000
It would be less costly for Boulder to buy power from Tri-County. Note that Boulder enjoys
a lower price ($75) than Tri-County charges its own REA customers ($107.50).
11. Tri-County G&T continued. This problem builds on problems 9 and 10 to show that
Tri-Countys REA customers also benefit from the bargain arrangement with Boulder.
Contribution from sales to Boulder Q p c
150,000$75 $25
$7,500,000
Remaining fixed costs to cover $82,500,000 $7,500,000 $75,000,000
F
Q
pc
F
$75,000,000
c
$25 $100 per MWH
Q
1,000,000
Note that selling power to Boulder at a reduced price also reduces the price to the REA
customers. However, it may be difficult to persuade REAs that selling electricity to city
slickers below cost also benefits rural customers.
p
A-7
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A-8 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
12. Forsite Company
a. Say that each criterion (arbitrarily) receives 20 points:
Service
Calculation
Total Score
20 0.6 20 0.7 20 0.4 201.0 20 0.2
A
= 58
20
0
.
8
20
0
.
3
20
0
.
7
20
0
.
4
20
1
.
0
B
= 64
20 0.3 20 0.9 20 0.5 20 0.6 20 0.5
C
= 56
The best alternative is service B and the worst is service C. This relationship holds as
long as any arbitrary weight is equally applied to all performance criteria.
b. Let
x point allocation to criteria 1, 3, 4, and 5
2 x point allocation to criteria 2 ROI
x 2 x x x x 100 points
6 x 100 points
x 16.7 points
Product
Calculation
Total Score
16.7 0.6 33.3 0.7 16.7 0.4 16.71.0 16.7 0.2
A
= 60.0
16.7 0.8 33.3 0.3 16.7 0.7 16.7 0.4 16.7 1.0
B
= 58.4
C
= 61.7
16.7 0.3 33.3 0.9 16.7 0.5 16.7 0.6 16.7 0.5
The rank order of the services has changed to C, A, B.
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Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
A-9
13. Five new suppliers
a.
Let
x point allocation to criteria 2 and 3
4 x point allocation to criterion 1
4 x point allocation to criterion 4
4 x x x 4 x 100 points
10 x 100 points
x 10 points
Supplier
Calculation
408 103 109 40 7
A
40 7 108 105 406
B
403 10 4 10 7 40 9
C
6 10 7 106 40 2
40
D
409 10 7 105 40 7
E
Total Score
= 720
= 650
= 590
= 450
= 760
The threshold is 0.7 10 40 10 10 40 700
Because Supplier A and Supplier E score greater than 700, they should be considered.
b. If the factors are equally weighted:
Supplier
A
B
C
D
E
Calculation
25(8+3+9+7)
25(7+8+5+6)
25(3+4+7+9)
25(6+7+6+2)
25(9+7+5+7)
Total Score
= 675
= 650
= 575
= 525
= 700
The threshold is 0.7 10 40 10 10 40 700
Because no suppliers score is greater than 700, none should be considered. Stay with the
current suppliers, which presumably have scores greater than 700.
14. Accel-Express Inc.
a. The weighted score for Location A:
10 8 10 7 10 4 20 7 20 4 30 7 620
The weighted score for Location B:
10 5 10 7 10 7 20 4 20 8 30 6 610
Location A must be chosen.
b. If equal weights are placed on the criteria, the two locations will be tied because the
sum of the scores is 37 for both A and B.
A-9
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A-10 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
15. Build-Rite Construction
a. Maximin CriterionBest Decision: Subcontract ... Payoff: $100,000
b. Maximax CriterionBest Decision: Hire ... Payoff: $625,000
c. Laplace CriterionBest Decision: Subcontract ... Weighted Payoff: $221,667
Alternative
Weighted Payoff
$250,000 100,000 $625,000 3 $158,333
Hire
$100,
000 150,000 $415,000 3 $221,667
Subcontract
$50,000 80,000 $300,000 3 $143,333
Do nothing
d. Minimax Regret CriterionSubcontract ... Minimum Maximum Regret $210,000
Regrets ($000)
Demand for Home Improvements
Alternative
Low
Moderate
High
Maximum
100 250 350 150 100 50
625 625 0
Hire
350
100 100 0
150 150 0
625 415 210
Subcontract
210
100 50 50
150 80 70
625 300 325
Hire
325
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Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
A-11
16. Decision Tree
(0.5)
(0.5)
$22.50
Alternative 1 $22.50
2 $20.60
(0.4)
(0.3)
(0.3)
1
Alternative 2 $24.00
(0.2)
$25.00 $24
(0.6)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.3)
$15
$30
$20
$18
$24
$25
$20
$30
$26
$20
Work from right to left. Here we begin with Decision Node 2, although Decision Node 3
would be an equally good starting point. The key concept is that we cannot begin analysis
of Decision Node 1 until we know the expected payoffs for Decision Nodes 2 and 3.
Decision Node 2
1. Its first alternative (in the upper right portion of the tree) leads to an event node with an
expected payoff of $22.50 [or 0.5(15) + 0.5(30)].
2. Its second alternative leading downward reaches an event node with an expected payoff
of $20.60 [or 0.4(20) + 0.3(18)+ 0.3(24)].
3. Thus the expected payoff for decision node 2 is $22.50, because the first alternative has
the better expected payoff. Prune the second alternative.
Decision Node 3
4. Its second alternative leads to an event node has an expected payoff of $24 [or 0.6(20)
+ 0.4(30)].
5. Thus the payoff for decision node 3 is $25, because the first alternative ($25) is better
than the expected payoff for the second alternative ($24). Prune the second alternative.
Decision Node 1
6. The second alternative leads to an event node has an expected payoff of $24 [or 0.2(25)
+ 0.5(26)+ 0.3(20)].
7. Thus the expected payoff for decision node 1 is $24, because the second alternative
($24) is better than the expected payoff for the second alternative ($22.50). Prune the
first alternative.
Thus the best initial choice (Decision 1) is to select the lower branch, Alternative 2. If the
top branch of the subsequent event occurs (a 20% probability), then Decision 3 must be
made. Select its first alternative.
Conclusion: Select the lower branch, with an expected payoff of $24.
A-11
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
A-12 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
17. One machine or two.
a. Decision Tree
b. Working from right to left:
Decision Node 2
1. The best choice is to subcontact ($160,000), which becomes the expected payoff for
Decision Node 2. Prune the Do nothing and Buy second alternatives.
Decision Node 1
2. The alternative to buy one machine has an expected value of $152,000 [or
0.8(160,000) + 0.2(120,000].
3. The alternative to buy two machines has an expected value of $162,000 [or
0.8(180,000) + 0.2(90,000].
4. Thus the best choice is to buy two machines because it has a higher expected payoff
($162,000 versus $152,000). Prune the one machine alternative.
Conclusion: Buy two machines, with an expected payoff of $162,000.
18. Small, medium, or large facility.
a. Decision Tree
High demand (0.35)
Average demand (0.40)
Low demand (0.25)
$112,000
Large
Medium
$102,250
Small
$78,250
$220,000
$125,000
($60,000)
Expand lrg
fac
2 Do nothing
$145,000
$150,000
$140,000
($25,000)
Expand lrg $125,000
fac
High demand (0.35)
3 Expand med $60,000
ac
Do nothing $75,000
Average demand (0.40) 4 Expand med $60,000
Do nothing $75,000
Low demand (0.25)
$18,000
High demand (0.35)
Average demand (0.40)
Low demand (0.25)
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Decision Making
SUPPLEMENT A
A-13
b. Working from right to left:
Decision Node 2
1. The best choice is to do nothing ($150,000), which becomes the expected payoff for
Decision Node 2. Prune the Expand to large alternative.
Decision Node 3
2. The best choice is the Expand to large alternative ($125,000), which becomes the
expected payoff for Decision Node 3. Prune the Expand to medium and Do
nothing alternatives.
Decision Node 4
3. The best choice is to do nothing ($75,000), which becomes the expected payoff for
Decision Node 4. Prune the Expand to medium alternative.
Decision Node 1
4. The alternative to build a large facility has an expected payoff of $112,000 [or
0.35(220,000) + 0.40(125,000) + 0.25(60,000)].
5. The alternative to build a medium-sized facility has an expected payoff of $102,250
[or 0.35(150,000) + 0.40(140,000) + 0.25(25,000].
6. The alternative to build a small facility has an expected payoff of $78,250 [or
0.35(125,000) + 0.40(75,000) + 0.25(18,000].
7. Thus the best choice is to build a large facility because it has a higher expected
payoff ($112,000). Prune the medium and small alternatives.
Conclusion: Build the large facility, with an expected payoff of $112,000.
c. Develop a payoff table from tree created in part a
Decision
Small Facility
Medium Facility
Large Facility
High Demand
$125,000
$150,000
$220,000
Average Demand
$75,000
$140,000
$125,000
Low Demand
$18,000
($25,000)
($60,000)
Maximin CriterionBest Decision: Small Facility
Maximax CriterionBest Decision: Large Facility
Minimax Regret CriterionBest Decision: Medium Facility
Alternative
Small
Medium
Large
High
220-125=95
220-150=70
220-220=0
Regrets ($000)
Average
140-75=65
140-140=0
140-125=15
Low
18-18=0
Maximum
95
18-(25)=43
18-(60)=78
70
78
A-13
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A-14 PART 1
Using Operations to Compete
19. Small or large plant.
a. Decision Tree (payoffs are in millions of dollars)
b. Working from right to left:
Decision Node 2
1. The best choice is the Expand alternative ($14), which becomes the expected
payoff for Decision Node 2. Prune the Do nothing alternative.
Decision Node 1
2. The alternative to build a small plant has an expected payoff of $12.2 million [or
0.70(14) + 0.30(8)].
3. The alternative to build a large plant has an expected payoff of $14.1 million [or
0.70(18) + 0.30(5)].
4. Thus the best choice is to build a large plant because it has a higher expected payoff
($14.1 million). Prune the small plant alternative.
Conclusion: Build the large facility, with an expected payoff of $14.1 million.
20. Offshore Chemicals
The decision tree would have just one decision node with two branches (build and do
not build). The build alternative is followed by an event node: Facility works (0.40)
and Facility fails (0.60).
Decision Node 1
1. The build alternative has an expected payoff of $2,000,000 [or 0.4 ($20,000,000) +
0.6 ($10,000,000)]
2. The do not build has a payoff of $0.
3. Thus the best choice, based on the expected value criterion, is to build. Prune the Do
not build alternative.
Conclusion: Build the facility, with an expected payoff of $2 million. Of course, political or
environmental considerations might also influence the final decision.
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