CIGI Debt Restructuring
CIGI Debt Restructuring
CIGI Debt Restructuring
TABLE OF CONTENTS
iv About the Authors
iv Acronyms
1 Foreword
1
Executive Summary
ACRONYMS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
CACs
CETA
CSOs
DSA
ESDRM
ESDRR
ESM
ICMA
IIAS
IMF
MDRI
SDAF
SDF
SDRM
SDT
FOREWORD
This paper is part of the Global Consultations on Sovereign
Debt, an initiative launched by the Centre for International
Governance Innovation (CIGI) and coordinated by the
New Rules for Global Finance Coalition. The consultations
seek to identify the full spectrum of proposals and ideas for
addressing sovereign debt crises, and organize these ideas
in a way that moves the debate forward. To do so, they
bring together and galvanize input from a diverse group
of stakeholders around the world, including academics,
civil society groups, government officials, lawyers and
legal experts, international organizations, practitioners,
think tanks and others.
Participation in the consultations is organized around
webinar discussions, video conferences, workshops,
meetings and submissions of written comments. This
issues paper extensively revised following the public
feedback received on an earlier draft aims to provide a
framework for the unfolding of the global consultations.
As part of its broader global engagement, CIGI has also
co-hosted a series of regional workshops on sovereign
debt restructuring (first in China, then Africa and next in
Latin America) to take stock of regional experiences and
perspectives. Once the consultations are concluded later
in 2015, CIGI will release a report that synthesizes the
contributions from these various stakeholders in a way
that can engage with and inform mainstream debates on
sovereign debt restructuring.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This paper provides an overview of the main issues,
debates and policy proposals that surround sovereign
debt restructuring. The first section outlines the basics of
sovereign debt restructuring, including what it is, how it is
done and when it has occurred. The second section reviews
the recent events and developments that have motivated
current discussions over how to better manage sovereign
defaults and debt restructurings. These developments and
the challenges they pose stem largely from the euro-zone
debt crisis and the recent litigation against Argentina. In
light of these challenges, the third section outlines the
major arguments for and against creating new institutional
arrangements to facilitate timely, orderly and fair sovereign
debt restructurings. The main arguments against reform
are that the current arrangements work relatively well
all things considered and that reforming the system
would encourage debtor moral hazard, which would in
turn raise sovereign borrowing costs and leave all parties
worse off. The arguments for reform reject this view, and
claim that creditor moral hazard, deadweight losses and
distributional inequity are current problems that justify
reform. Taking the case for reform, section four asks what
types of reforms are needed, and reviews three broad
approaches to sovereign debt restructuring: contractual,
For an overview of the euro-zone crisis, and the role of Greece within
it, see Blyth (2013, chapter 2).
For
The counter-argument to that view is that even if it
becomes easier or less costly to default or restructure,
countries will continue to face strong incentives not to,
including the incentive to avoid higher future borrowing
costs (Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer 2007; Borensztein
and Panizza 2008). Another incentive for sovereigns to
repay their debt stems from the fear of losing access to
international capital markets. As Ugo Panizza, Federico
Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (2009, 662)
document, a number of studies illustrate that the threat
of exclusion from future borrowing is sufficient to sustain
sovereign lending (see also Amador 2003; Eaton and
Gersovitz 1981). They note, however, that, according to the
evidence, fear of being barred from capital markets cannot
9 It should be noted that many apparently successful debt
restructurings are insufficient to restore debt sustainability and are
therefore followed by repeat defaults. In a review of distressed debt
exchanges, Moodys (2012, 1) reports that Thirty-seven percent
of the 30 sovereign distressed exchanges were followed by further
default events. (For this point the authors thank Bernhard G. Gunter
of the Bangladesh Development Research Center.)
10 Some would note that the track record of IMF lending is not the only
source of creditor moral hazard. For example, a legal precedent or
court ruling that made debt repayment more likely, all else equal,
could also lead to what would otherwise be considered overlending
or overly risky lending. (This view was brought to the authors
attention by Jurgen Kaiser of Jubilee Germany.)
Deadweight Losses
Deadweight losses are essentially efficiency losses that
arise from information and coordination problems, and
that reduce general economic welfare. They are loselose in the sense that value is destroyed without an
offsetting benefit the debtors loss does not represent
Distributional Issues
Although it is often cloaked in technical language,
sovereign debt restructuring is in fact a politically charged
issue, inescapably wrapped up in deep-seated normative
judgements about equity and the appropriate balance of
public-private burden sharing during financial crises.
The accumulation of unsustainable debt by a government
can raise questions of intergenerational equity (Buccheit
and Gulati 2010). If a government borrows money to
invest in the productive capacity of its economy, then
that borrowing and investment will likely benefit future
14 An important goal of the IMFs and World Banks Heavily Indebted
Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
(MDRI) was to provide the eligible countries with a fresh start by
relieving all (or almost all) of their debt. For an overview and analysis
of debt restructuring in Africa, including the role of the HIPC and
MDRI initiatives, see Brooks, Lombardi and Suruma (2014). Recently,
the idea of having a Heavily Indebted Middle Income Country
Initiative, specifically for the Caribbean countries, has been put
forward (see Ramcharan 2015).
16 See Bi, Chamon and Zettelmeyer (2011); Bradley, Cox and Gulati
(2010); and Das, Papaioannou and Trebesch (2012).
State-contingent Debt
Recently, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England
released a joint study outlining the equity and efficiency
problems with the current approach to sovereign debt
restructuring, and arguing that to address these problems
private creditors should play a greater role in risk-sharing
and helping to resolve sovereign debt crises (Brooke
et al. 2013, 1). They propose the introduction of two
complementary types of state-contingent debt sovereign
cocos21 and GDP-linked bonds both of which are
extensions of the contractual approach. Sovereign cocos,
the authors explain, are bonds that would automatically
extend in repayment maturity when a country receives
official sector emergency liquidity assistance (ibid.).
By bailing in creditors in a transparent, predictable and
credible manner ex post, cocos would ostensibly temper
imprudent lending practices ex ante and thus reduce
creditor moral hazard and the likelihood of sovereign
debt crises erupting in the first place. In other words,
since creditors would no longer be able count on full
repayment by the official sector during crises, they would
be more risk averse in their lending practices, in turn
giving sovereign debtors less rope to hang themselves
with. In the past, commitments by the official sector to bail
in creditors have failed to reduce moral hazard because
they lacked credibility. But the automaticity of the bail-in
procedure specified in cocos would arguably make them
more credible, and therefore effective, in discouraging
imprudent lending and borrowing during normal times.
Furthermore, note Martin Brooke et al. (2013, 9), the
activation of sovereign cocos would significantly alter
burden-sharing between private creditors and the official
sector/taxpayers, reducing the required size of official
sector emergency loans. Arguably, then, sovereign cocos
would be more effective at preventing crises and more
equitable in resolving them. And while sovereign cocos
are apt to address liquidity problems rather than solvency
ones, the activation of cocos can help to buy time to make
a fuller assessment of debt sustainability and, if need be,
to undertake debt restructuring negotiations in an orderly
way (ibid., 9).
To optimize this contractual approach, Brooke et al.
(2013) argue that sovereign cocos could and should be
accompanied by GDP-linked bonds that is, bonds
that directly link principal and interest payments to the
nominal level of a countrys GDP (ibid.). GDP-linked
bonds ensure, in other words, that when a countrys GDP
is reduced, so too are the principal and interest payments
on its sovereign debt. Sovereign cocos and GDP-linked
21 Coco is short for contingent-convertible.
CONCLUSION
The purpose of this paper has been to provide an overview
of the main issues, debates and policy proposals that
surround sovereign debt restructuring. While it seeks to
be relatively comprehensive in its treatment of these items,
the paper is in no way exhaustive of the many possible
ways of preventing and managing sovereign debt crises.
A few of the most prominent reform proposals namely,
those that have gained considerable attention within
scholarly and policy circles have been discussed in this
paper, but several other possibilities exist,24 whether or not
they have yet been considered. This paper is thus intended
to serve as a starting point, the beginning of a broader
conversation that will engage with and take us beyond the
current debate and menu of options for dealing with the
complex equity and efficiency problems that so often mire
sovereign debt restructurings. Only through inclusive
discussion and debate of this sort can we hope to move
toward sovereign debt restructuring arrangements that
work for all.
WORKS CITED
Amador, Manuel. 2003. A Political Economy Model of
Sovereign Debt Repayment. http://www.stanford.
com/~amador/debt.pdf.
Barro, R. 1995. Optimal Debt Management. NBER
Working Paper No. 5327.
Bi, Ran, Marcos Chamon and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. 2011.
The Problem That Wasnt: Coordination Failures in
Sovereign Debt Restructurings. IMF Working Paper
11/265. November.
Blyth, Mark. 2013. Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea.
New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Bolton, Patrick and Olivier Jeanne. 2002. Sovereign Debt
Structuring and Restructuring: An Incomplete Contracts
Approach. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Borensztein, Eduardo, and Ugo Panizza. 2008. The Costs
of Sovereign Default. IMF Working Paper 08/238.
October.
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