Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Lesson 07
Process Selection & Capacity Planning
Process selection refers to the
way an organization chooses to
produce its goods or services

07 - 1

Process
a series of actions or operations that transforms inputs into outputs

Feedback

Inputs

Operation A

Operation B

Outputs

07 - 2

Components of Process Selection

Capacity Planning

Forecast
Product and/or
Service Design

Process
Selection

Facilities/Equipment

Technology
Work Design

07 - 3

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-1

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Factors In Process Selection Decisions

. Make vs Buy - utilize internal capacity, subcontract, purchase
sub-components based on
..
..
..
..
..

cost
available capacity
expertise
quality considerations
nature of the demand (e.g. high or low, short
or long range)
.. speed
.. reliability
. Capital Intensity - the mix of equipment and labor
. Process flexibility
07 - 4

Types of Processes
Continuous - a system that produces highly uniform products (e.g.
chemicals, paper, photographic film, steel)
Repetitive - a semi-continuous system which produces output that may
be similar but not identical (e.g. electronics, automobiles, computers)
Intermittent - usually lower volume output with greater variety in both
product and processing
.. batch processing - produces moderate volumes of
similar items (e.g. ice cream manufacturing - strawberry then
vanilla)
.. job shop - produces a unit or small volumes of units to
meet customer specifications (e.g. machine shop)
Projects - non-routine jobs
07 - 5

Product Process Matrix

Product
Process
Matrix
Low
Volume
Moderate
Volume
High
Volume
Very High
Volume

Product Variety & Equipment Flexibility

High
Moderate
Low
Very Low
Job Shop
Commercial
Printer

Batch
Heavy
Equipment

Repetetive
Assembly

Automobile
Assembly

Continuous
Flow
Sugar
Refinery

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07 - 6

07-2

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Automation
Automation refers to machinery that has the ability to sense and control
devices that enable it to operate automatically (e.g. CAM, numerically
controlled (N/C) machines , robots, Computer Integrated Manufacturing
(CIM))

07 - 7

Capacity Planning
Capacity is the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit
can handle. There are many questions that must be answered and the
the detail required to answer each will depend on whether the demand
is short, intermediate or long range.
. What kind of capacity is needed? - depends on the
products/services that management intends to produce or
provide
. How much is needed?
. When is it needed? depends on the stage of completion of
6 Month Forecast
a product/service
Forecast Demand
Production Plan
Inventory

1
10
10
10

2
8
10
12

3
12
10
10

4
14
12
8

5
10
12
10

6
8
10
12

07 - 8

Capacity Decisions
Capacity decisions
. have a real impact on the ability of an organization to meet
future demands for products/services
. affect operating costs - too much can sometimes be as bad
as too little
. are usually a major determinant of initial cost
. involve long tem commitment of both financial and human
resources - once implemented, it may be very costly to modify
capacity decisions without major costs
. can affect competitiveness - the ability to quickly add or
utilize unproductive capacity may serve as a competitive
advantage
07 - 9

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-3

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Capacity Concepts

Design Capacity - refers to the maximum

output that can possibly be attained
Effective Capacity - refers to the maximum
output given product mix, scheduling
difficulties, quality factors, and other doses of
reality
Actual Output - refers to the rate of output
actually achieved (can not exceed the Effective
Capacity)
07 - 10

Measures of Capacity Effectiveness

Actual Output
Utilization =

Design Capacity

Actual Output
Efficiency =

Effective Capacity

07 - 11

Improving Utilization
Utilization can be improved by improving effective capacity. Some of the
factors which influence effective capacity are:
. facilities - design, location, layout, environment
. products/services - design, product/service mix
. processes - quantity and quality capabilities
. human considerations - job content, job design, training and
experience, motivation, learning rates, absenteeism, turnover
. operations - scheduling, materials management, quality
assurance, maintenance policies, equipment breakdowns
. external forces - product standards, safety regulations,
unions, pollution control standards
07 - 12

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-4

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Determining Capacity Requirements

Forecasts - are necessary to determine demand.
They can identify trends and seasonality. Statistical
analysis of historical forecast accuracy can be very
useful in identifying demand variability and
establishing upper and lower bounds for capacity
requirements.

Growth

Mathematical/Computer models and simulations (based on

probability distributions describing variability in demand) can be
developed to analyze capacity requirements. For example:
How many elevators are needed in a new building?
How many tellers are needed at a bank?
How can you evaluate a railroads throughput?
07 - 13

Developing Capacity Alternatives

When developing capacity alternatives you should
. design flexibility into systems - provision for future
expansion in original designs can be cost effective at the time
the increases are necessary (e.g. a plan for 9 hole golf
course may include systems big enough to handle a future 18
hole course)
. big picture approach - consideration for other issues
affected by capacity increases/decreases (e.g. extra parking
space, extra staff, impact on suppliers, etc.)
. attempt to smooth capacity requirements - look for
complimentary demand patterns (e.g. one up while another
down) and consider trade-off alternatives (e.g. overtime,
make ahead, etc.)
07 - 14

Developing Capacity Alternatives (contd)

. prepare for capacity chunks
chunks - capacity is often increased in large
increments even though demand changes steadily
(e.g. a machine produces 40/hr; when demand is 35 you have 5
excess; when demand goes to 45 capacity goes to 80/hr and you
have 35 excess which could create excess costs)
. identify the optimal
optimal
operating level - may
vary by size of plant

Optimal Rate of Output for Minimum Cost

Average Cost/Unit

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Rate of Output
07 - 15

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-5

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Evaluating Capacity - Example

Example 2: A department works one 8-hour shift, 250 days per year. The
following products are all made on the same machine. How many machines
will be needed to meet the demand?

Product
A
B
C

Standard
Annual
Annual
Processing Processing
Demand Time/Unit (hr) Time (hr)
400
5.0
2000
300
8.0
2400
700
2.0
1400
Total
5800

Total annual processing time needed = 5800

Number of hours in a manufacturing year = 8*250 =2000
Number of machines = 5800/2000 = 2.9 or 3 machines.
07 - 16

Cost Volume Analysis

Accounting Standards have been established to ensure that businesses
classify cost appropriately. Generally these costs are described by:
. Fixed Costs - those which do not vary with the volume of
units produced (e.g. building rent, property taxes, management
salaries)
. Variable Costs - those costs that are directly related to the
volume of units produced (e.g. raw materials, direct/indirect
labor, packaging materials)
. Step Fixed Costs - when production
units increase beyond a certain point
additional fixed expenses may occur
(e.g. - capacity chunks, another
building, more equipment, etc.)
07 - 17

Cost Symbols & Relationships

FC = Fixed Costs
Q = Quantity Produced
VC = Variable Cost per unit
TVC = Total Variable Cost = VC*Q
R = Revenue per unit
TR = Total Revenue = R*Q
TC = Total Costs = FC + VC*Q
P = Profit= TR - TC = R*Q - (FC + VC*Q) = Q*(R-VC) -FC
Note: various other formulas can be generated by using these
mathematical relationships.

07 - 18

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-6

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Bakery - Fixed Costs

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7. Plot the
30000
problem
on a graph.
25000
First , plot
the fixed costs on the graph.
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

FC

07 - 19

Bakery Total Variable Costs (TVC)

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7. Plot the
30000
problem
on a graph.
25000
Next , plot
the total variable costs on the graph.
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
0

1000

2000

3000
FC

4000

5000

TVC

07 - 20

Bakery Total Costs (TC)

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7. Plot the
30000
problem
on a graph.
25000
Next , plot
the total costs on the graph.
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
0

1000

2000
FC

3000
TVC

4000

5000

TC

07 - 21

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-7

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Bakery Total Revenue( TR)

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7. Plot the
30000
problem
on a graph.
25000
Next , plot
the total revenue on the graph.
20000

TR = TC

15000
10000
5000
0

P=0

-5000
-10000
0

1000

2000

Break Even Point (BEP)

3000

FC

4000

TC

5000

TR

07 - 22

Bakery Profit & Loss

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7. Plot the
30000
problem
on a graph.
25000
20000

Profit Amount

15000
10000
5000

Loss Amount

Loss

-5000

Profit

-10000
0

1000

Break Even Point (BEP)

2000

3000

FC

4000

TC

5000

TR

07 - 23

Break Even Point (BEP)

The Break Even Point is the quantity where
Total Revenue (TR) and Total Costs (TC) are the same.
We can use the relationships to solve for the quantity where TR and TC are the
same.
TR = TC
R*Q = FC + VC*Q
Q = FC/(R-VC)

Q BEP =

FC
R - VC

07 - 24

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-8

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Bakery Break Even Point

Example 3: A bakery makes pies with the following
monthly35000
costs. FC = Fixed Costs = $6,000, VC = Variable
Cost per pie = $2, R = Revenue per pie = $7.
30000

Calculate the break even point.

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

BEP = FC/(R-VC) = 6000(7-2) = 1,200 pies

-5000
-10000
0

1000

Break Even Point (BEP)

2000
FC

3000
TC

4000

5000

TR

07 - 25

07 - 26

Calculate the break even point.

BEP = FC/(R-VC) = 6000(7-2) = 1,200 pies

07 - 27

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-9

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

How much profit or loss will the

bakery have it sells 1000 pies?

P = Q*(R-VC)-FC = 1,000*(7-2)-6,000 = - 1,000

07 - 28

How many pies will the bakery have

to sell
to make aAnalysis
profit of $10,000.
Breakeven

P = Q*(R-VC)-FC =
10000=Q*(7-2)-6,000
Q = 3,200 pies

07 - 29

How many pies will the bakery have to

sell to achieve a revenue of $60,000.

See if you can figure out the formula.

07 - 30

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-10

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Costs

Total Costs w/ Step Fixed Costs

Step
Fixed
Costs

Quantity
07 - 31

Costs

Total Costs w/ Step Fixed Costs

Total
Costs

Quantity
07 - 32

Total Costs w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

Example 4: A manager has the option of purchasing 1, 2 or 3 machines. Fixed
costs and potential volumes, variable costs and revenue per unit produced are
shown below. VC = = $10, R = $40. Draw a graph showing the total costs and
revenue over each range.

Number Annual
Range of
Machines Total (FC) Ouput (Q)
1 $9,600
0 to 300
2 $15,000 301 to 600
3 $20,000 601 to 900

07 - 33

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-11

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Total Costs w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

40,000
You should verify that you understand
this concept by manually graphing the
example on a piece of graph paper.

35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0

100

200

TC 0 to 300

300

400

TC 301 to 600

500

600

700

800

TC 601 to 900

900
TR
07 - 34

BEP w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

Example: A manager has the option of purchasing 1, 2 or 3 machines. Fixed
costs and potential volumes, variable costs and revenue per unit produced are
shown below. VC = = $10, R = $40.
Use the graph on the previous page to visually estimate the breakeven
point over each range.
Mathematically determine the actual Break Even Point for each range.

Number Annual
Range of BEP 1 Machine = 9,600/(40-10)
= 320 units (not in range)
Machines Total (FC) Ouput (Q)
1 $9,600
0 to 300 BEP 2 Machines = 15,000/(40-10)
= 500 units
2 $15,000 301 to 600
3 $20,000 601 to 900 BEP 3 Machines = 20,000/(40-10)
BEP = FC/(R-VC)

= 667 units
07 - 35

BEP w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

Example: A manager has the option of purchasing 1, 2 or 3 machines. Fixed
costs and potential volumes, variable costs and revenue per unit produced are
shown below. VC = = $10, R = $40. If the projected annual volume is between
580 and 660 units, how many machines should the manager buy?
Lets look at this problem visually.

Number Annual
Range of
Machines Total (FC) Ouput (Q)
1 $9,600
0 to 300
2 $15,000 301 to 600
3 $20,000 601 to 900

07 - 36

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-12

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

BEP w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

40,000
35,000

BEP 3 machines = 667

30,000
25,000

Does it appear the

manager will make a
profit when demand is
660 units?

BEP 2 machines = 500

20,000

Does it appear the

manager will make a
profit when demand is
580 units?

15,000
10,000
5,000

580
660
0 Since annual demand is between 580
Conclusion:
0
100
300
400
500 600
700 800
and 660 the manager
should200
purchase
2 machines.
If 3 machines are purchased all demand will be met;
TC
0
to
300
TC
301
to
600
TC
601
to
900
but the company will lose money.

900
TR
07 - 37

BEP w/ Step Fixed Costs - Example

40,000
You should verify that you understand
this concept by manually calculating the
revenue, total cost, and profit at each
volume level to verify your visual results.

35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

580

0
0

100

TC 0 to 300

200

300

400

TC 301 to 600

500

660
600

700

TC 601 to 900

800

900
TR
07 - 38

07 - 39

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-13

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

For the previous example,

note how the data is entered.

Breakeven Points are automatically

calculated for each range.

07 - 40

For a demand analysis

situation, enter the low and
high demand quantities.

Low Demand Analysis

What is the profit if low
demand materializes?

High Demand Analysis

What is the profit if high
demand materializes?

Profit of 2,400

Loss of $200

You should verify the calculations manually to ensure

that you understand all the information this template
provides with respect to revenue, costs, and profit.
07 - 41

For the same example,

suppose you want to make a
profit of at least $2,500 per
week. How many machines
should you buy?

To get a profit of $2,500 requires a volume shown here;

therefore, since the demand is between 580 and 660, the
manager should buy 2 machines.
Why should you not buy 3 machines?

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07 - 42

07-14

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Evaluating Multiple Alternatives

Solved Problem 1: A firms manager must decide whether to make or buy a
certain item used in the production of vending machines. Making the item would
involve annual lease costs of $150,000. Cost estimates for the two alternatives
are shown below. Answer the following questions.

Options
Make
Buy

Fixed Cost
150000
0

VC/Unit
60
80

07 - 43

07 - 44

Cost graph is automatically displayed for each

alternative when information is entered.

Can you visually determine what the cost is

for buying 12,000 units?
Can you visually determine what the cost is
for making 12,000 units?

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07 - 45

07-15

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

Buy: $960,000
Make: $870,000

07 - 46

At what volume is the

manager indifferent to
whether he chooses
make or buy?
7,500 units

What is the cost of each alternative

at the point of indifference?
$600,000

Over what range should the manage choose each option?

(i.e. Which one has the least cost over what range?)
Buy: Volume < 7,500 Make: Volume > 7,500
Note: there are no equal signs in the answer. Why?

07 - 47

Notice when the

revenue per unit and a
volume are entered,
profits are displayed
rather than costs.
The template can also be used to analyze profitability
scenarios by entering a revenue per unit.

07 - 48

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-16

Lesson 07 Process Selection & Capacity Planning

What is the profit at

the point of
indifference?
$150,000
What is the profit for each alternative if the volume is
12,000 units and the revenue per unit is $100?
Make: $ 330,000

Buy: $240,000

07 - 49

Evaluating Capacity Other Quant Methods

Cash flow analysis - refers to the difference between the cash received
from sales and other sources (e.g. sale of old equipment) and the cash
outflow for labor, materials, overhead, taxes, etc.
Present Value - expresses in current terms the sum of all future cash
flows of an investment proposal
The three most commonly used methods of financial analysis are
. payback
. present value
. internal rate of return

07 - 50

Homework
Read and understand all material in the chapter.
Discussion and Review Questions
Recreate and understand all classroom examples
Exercises on chapter web page

07 - 51

Copyright Harland E. Hodges, Ph.D

07-17