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Tutorial 2 New Solution

The document contains 8 problems involving probability concepts and calculations. The problems cover topics such as finding the probability of events given conditional probabilities, computing union and intersection of sets, determining probability distributions from data, and calculating mean and variance. For each problem, the relevant formulas and step-by-step workings are shown to arrive at the solutions.

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Steven Nimal
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107 views4 pages

Tutorial 2 New Solution

The document contains 8 problems involving probability concepts and calculations. The problems cover topics such as finding the probability of events given conditional probabilities, computing union and intersection of sets, determining probability distributions from data, and calculating mean and variance. For each problem, the relevant formulas and step-by-step workings are shown to arrive at the solutions.

Uploaded by

Steven Nimal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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TPR3411 Pattern Recognition

Tutorial 2 (Solution)
1.

The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets


police summon is 0.06. The probability that Sam cannot find a
legal parking space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a noparking zone. Find the probability that he will get a police
summon.
Solution:

Let N = parking in a no-parking zone


summon
Then
P (S N ) 0.06
P(S | N )

0.30
P( N )
0.20

S = getting a police

2. Probability that John passes a Math exam is 4/5 and that he


passes a Computer programming exam is 5/6. If the probability
that he passes both exams is 3/4, find the probability that he will
pass at least one exam.
Solution:

Let M = John passes Math exam and C = John passes Computer


programming exam.
Then P (John passes at least one exam) = P(M U C ) = P(M) + P(C)
P(M C)
= 4/5+5/6
3/4 = 53/60

3.

For the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a single


eight-pump gas station is observed. Let A = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, B ={4, 5,
6, 7, 8} and C = {1, 6, 7}. Then find
a) AB
b) A U B
c) A U C and
d) (A U C)
Solutions:
a) AB = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {4, 5}
b) A U B = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8} = S
c) A U C = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {1, 6, 7} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}
d) (A U C) = S - (A U C) = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} - {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7} = {8}

4. Imagine that you went to a friends wedding in Australia recently.


It is known that 1 in 200 people who visited Australia recently
come back with swine flu. The doctor selects you at random to
have a blood test for swine flu. The test is 99% accurate and the
probability of a false positive is 2%. You test positive. What is the
probability that you have swine flu?
Solution:
P ( Flu ) 0.005 , P (Flu ) 0.995
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.99 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.01
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.02 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.98
P ( Flu | Pos)

P ( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu )


P( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu ) P ( Pos | Flu ) P (Flu )

0.99 0.005)
(0.99 0.005) (0.02 0.995)

= 0.07
5. Assume that you are on a quiz show. There is a prize behind one
of the two doors. The doors are coloured red and blue. A coin will
be tossed to decide which door to open. You were told that there
is prize behind the red door 10% of the time, and the blue door
20% of the time.
If given a choice to make, which door would you open in order to
win the prize?
Solution:
P (Red) 0.5 , P ( Blue) 0.5
P (Prize | Red) 0.1 , P (Prize | Red) 0.9
P (Prize | Blue) 0.2 , P (Prize | Blue) 0.8
P (Red | Prize)

P (Prize | Red) P(Red)


P (Prize | Red) P(Red) P(Prize | Blue) P(Blue)

0.1 0.5
(0.1 0.5) (0.2 0.5)

= 0.33
P (Blue | Prize) 1 0.33 0.67
Therefore, I would choose to open the blue door.
6.

During the summer months, a retailer keeps track of the


number of iPads it sells each day during a period of 90 days. The
number of iPad sold per day is represented by the variable X.
Compute the probability P(X) for each X.
X

Number of days

45

30

15

Total

90

Solutions:
For 0 iPad: 45/90 = 0.5
For 1 iPad: 30/90 = 0.33
For 2 iPads: 15/90 = 0.17
Number of iPads sold X
Probability P(X)

0.50

0.33

0.17

7.

Find the probability of getting a 3 or 4 or 5 while throwing a die where


sample spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}.

Solution:
Sample Spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} and event E={3,4,5}.
We have, number of outcomes=3 and total number of outcomes = 9
So, P(E)=3/9=0.3333

8. The probability distribution shown in the given table represents the


number holidays that an MMU student spends in the home town per
2 weeks. (That is, 18% do not go to the home town so sad, 34%
spend 1 day, 23% spends 2 days and so on).
a) Find the mean
b) Compute variance and standard deviation
Number of days
X

Probability P(X)

0.18

0.34

0.23

0.21

0.04

Solutions:
a)

X P ( X )

= (0)(0.18)+(1)(0.34)+(2)(0.23)+(3)(0.21)+(4)(0.04)
= 1.6

b)

2 ( X ) 2 P( X )
[(0 1.6) 2 0.18] [(1 1.6) 2 0.34] [(2
1.6) 2 0.23]

[(3
1.6)
2 0.21]

[(4
1.6)
2 0.04]

= 1.23
The standard deviation is 2 1.23 1.1

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