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1.4.2 Prospect Resource Assessment Three-Point Method (J.E. Warren 1980-1984)

The document describes the three-point method for prospect resource assessment. It involves specifying parameter ranges and probabilities, calculating the mean and variance for each parameter, multiplying the means to obtain the mean resource value, summing the variances to get the total variance, and calculating resource values at different probability levels based on the normal distribution. As an example, the calculation for an oil prospect yields a median resource of 12 million barrels, with low and high estimates of 3 million and 52 million barrels at the 10% and 90% probability levels.

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35 views4 pages

1.4.2 Prospect Resource Assessment Three-Point Method (J.E. Warren 1980-1984)

The document describes the three-point method for prospect resource assessment. It involves specifying parameter ranges and probabilities, calculating the mean and variance for each parameter, multiplying the means to obtain the mean resource value, summing the variances to get the total variance, and calculating resource values at different probability levels based on the normal distribution. As an example, the calculation for an oil prospect yields a median resource of 12 million barrels, with low and high estimates of 3 million and 52 million barrels at the 10% and 90% probability levels.

Uploaded by

Pondok Huda
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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1.4.

2 prospect resource assessment


Three-point method
( J.E. Warren 1980-1984 )

Basic equation
Roil=7758AhSh(1/Bo)Rfo
R(gas)=43560AhSh(1/Bg)Rfg
R(condensate)=43560AhSh(1/Bg)
RfgCGR

Where:
A = areal extent of prospect in acres
H = average net pay in feet
= average porosity
Sh = hydrocarbon saturation
Boil =initial oil formation volume factor in reservoir barrels/stock
tank barrels ( STB )
Bg = initial gas formation volume factor in reservoir cubic
feet/surface cubic feet
Rfo = recovery factor for oil
Rfg = recovery factor for gas
CR = condensate recovery factor in STB/ft3
7538 = conversion factor from acre-feet to barrels
43560 =conversion factor from acre-feet to cubic feet

Calculation steps
Step 1
Specify the parameter ranges ( 5%, 10% and 95%
probabilities of occurrence of each parameter )
Step 2
Calculate a mean and variance for each parameter
m(v) = 0.185P5(v) + 0.63 P50(v) + 0.185 P95(v)
m2(v) = 0.185 P5(v)2 + 0.63 P50(v)2 + 0.185
P95(v)2
2(v)=In[m2(v)/m(v)2]

Where
m(v)the mean of the natural logarithm for each parameter
If calculating the mean of areav = A, i.e. m(V) = m(A)
2(v)the variance of the natural logarithm for each parameter
P5(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P50(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P95(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
For example, the mean and variance of area in the table are:
m(A)=0.185225+0.63900+(0.1853300)=1219
2(A)=ln[(0.185225)2+(0.63900)2+
(0.1853300)2]/(1219)2
=0.5337

Step 3
Multiply the parameter means and sum the variance to obtain
the mean and variance of the reserve distribution
2[R(oil)] = 2(A) + 2( h ) + 2()+2( Sh ) + 2( 1/Bo )
+ 2( Rfo )
m[R(oil)] = 7758 m(A) m(h) m(p) m(Sh) m(1/Bo)
m(Rfo)
In the table
2[(oil)]=0.0000+0.5337+0.5591+0.0154+0.0360+0.0176
+0.0158+0.0075+0.0645
=1.2496
m[R(Oil)=77581219870.81110.77780.2519
0.78520.70000.3182
=23106bbl

Step 4
Calculate values for different probabilities of occrrence
Rx = P50 (R) ez(x)
whereP50(R)m(R) e-0.5 2
Z(x)the value or z factor corresponding
to the x-percentile of the standard normal distribution
In the table
Median (50% probability)=23e-0.51.2496=12106bbl
Low(10% probability)= 12e-1.2821.2496=3106bbl

TABLE 6-1 THE PETROLEUM RESOURCES CALCULATION TABLE OF


THREE-POINT METHOD
COUNTRY/CONCESSION/PROSPECT
DEPTH TO OBJECTIVE
WELL COST
EVALUATION

INPUT

OUTPUT
MEAN

VARIANC
E

LOW
(10%)

7758

7758

0.0000

900

3300

1219

0.5337

569

934

1533

15

63

240

87

0.5591

NET TO GROSS

0.63

0.83

0.96

0.8171

0.0154

GEOMETRIC FACTOR

0.5

0.8

0.98

0.7778

0.0360

POROSITY

0.2

0.25

0.31

0.2519

0.0176

0.23

0.25

0.27

HC SATURATION

0.6

0.8

0.92

0.7852

0.0158

0.72

0.78

0.85

1/FVF

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.7000

0.0075

0.66

0.70

0.74

RECOVERY FACTOR

0.18

0.32

0.45

0.3182

0.0645

0.26

0.31

0.37

23

1.2496

12

52

5%

50%

95%

CONVERSION
FACTOR
BBL/ACRE-FT

7758

7758

AREAACRES

225

GROSS PAYFT

RESERVE106 BBL

MEDIAN
(50%)

HIGH
(90%)

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