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(Population Projection) : Demography

The document provides population projections for the city of Sagar using three methods: 1) Arithmetic Increase Method, 2) Geometric Increase Method, and 3) Incremental Increase Method. It presents the city's population from 1961 to 2011, the increments between years, and uses the historical data to project the population in 2021 and 2031 under each method. The Arithmetic Method projects the 2021 population will be 26,94,840 and the 2031 population will be 30,11,222. The Geometric Method projects 29,49,287 for 2021 and 36,57,117 for 2031. The Incremental Method projects 27,17,521 for 2021 and 30,79,265 for 2031.

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41 views3 pages

(Population Projection) : Demography

The document provides population projections for the city of Sagar using three methods: 1) Arithmetic Increase Method, 2) Geometric Increase Method, and 3) Incremental Increase Method. It presents the city's population from 1961 to 2011, the increments between years, and uses the historical data to project the population in 2021 and 2031 under each method. The Arithmetic Method projects the 2021 population will be 26,94,840 and the 2031 population will be 30,11,222. The Geometric Method projects 29,49,287 for 2021 and 36,57,117 for 2031. The Incremental Method projects 27,17,521 for 2021 and 30,79,265 for 2031.

Uploaded by

sk
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DEMOGRAPHY

(Population Projection)
Submitted by 141109032

City: Sagar
YEAR

1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011

POPULATION

7,96,
547
10,62,
291
13,23,
132
16,47,
736
20,21,
987
23,78,
458

INCREMENT
(P2-P1)

1. Arithmetic Increase Method:


PN= P + n.C

265744
260841
324604

Where, PN is the population after n


decades
P = present population
C= constant (average increment
value)

374251

TOTAL

356471
1581911

AVERAGE

316382.2

Population2021= 23, 78,458 +1 x 316382.2


= 26, 94,840
Population2031= 23, 78,458+ 2 x 316382.2

30,11,222

2. Geometric Increase Method:


PN = P (1+ IG/100) n
Where, IG = geometric mean (%)
P = Present population
N = no. of decades.

YEAR

POPULATION

INCREMENT

GEOMETRIC
INCREASE
(P2-P1/P1)

7,96,
547

1961

0.33

1971
1981
1991
2001
2011

10,62,
291
13,23,
132
16,47,
736
20,21,
987
23,78,
458

265744
260841

0.25

324604

0.25

374251

0.23

356471

0.18

Geometric Mean= (0.33x0.25x0.5x0.25x0.23x0.18)1/5


= 0.24

Population2021 =23, 78,458 x (1+0.24)1

=29, 49,287
Population2031 = 23, 78,458 x (1+0.24)2
=36,57,
117

3. Incremental Increase Method:


PN = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Where, PN = Population after nth decade

X = Average increase (P2-P1)


Y = Incremental increase (X2-X1)

YEAR

1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011

POPULATION

7,96,
547
10,62,
291
13,23,
132
16,47,
736
20,21,
987
23,78,
458

INCREASE
(X)

INCREMENTAL
INCREASE (Y)

265744
260841

-4903

324604

63763

374251

49647

356471

-17780

TOTAL

1581911

90727

AVERAGE

316382.2

22681.75

Population2021 = 2378458 + (316382 x 1) + {(1 (1+1))/2} x 22681


= 2717521
Population2031 = 2378458 + (316382 x 2) + {(2 (2+1)/2)} x 22681
= 3079265

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