Climate Change Impacts On Crop Water Requirement For Sukhi Reservoir Project

ISSN: 2319-8753
International Journal of Innovative Research in Science,

Engineering and Technology
(An ISO 3297: 2007 Certified Organization)
Vol. 2, Issue 9, September 2013
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CROP

WATER REQUIREMENT FOR SUKHI
RESERVOIR PROJECT
Dr. Falguni Parekh1, Kevin Pramodchandra Prajapati2
Associate Professor, Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute, Faculty of Technology and Engineering,
The M.S. University of Baroda, Samiala, Dist. & Tal. Vadodara, Gujarat, India1
P.G. Student, Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The
M.S. University of Baroda, Vadodara, Gujarat, India2
Abstract: Climate can be defined as the expected weather and when changes in the expected weather occur, we call
these climate changes. With respect to the relations between the hydrological cycle and the climate system, every
change on the climate could affect all meteorological parameters and this leads to change in the crop water requirement
in agriculture. Considering this, a study was carried out to assess the impact of climate change on crop water
requirement for the crops grown in the Sukhi command area of Vadodara district, Gujarat. For this study, daily
meteorological data like maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and rainfall for the
period 2003 to 2009 are used. Cropping pattern data and crop data was used for this study. Future climate data were
predicted for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 considering A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) using stochastic weather generator
named Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG 5.0) considering HADCM3 (Hadley centre
Unified Model 3) scenario file. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) was determined using mean monthly
meteorological data with the help of CROPWAT 8.0 and then crop water requirement (ETc) was determined. Results
shows the clear effect of climate change on crop water requirement of Rabi and Hot Weather crops. Results shows that
crop water requirement of all Hot Weather crops (Millet, Ground nut, Maize, Small vegetables and Tomato) in all
future periods is increasing as compared to base period 2003-2009. Crop water requirement of Rabi crops (Wheat,
Sorghum, Maize, Small Vegetables, Tomato, Gram and Cowpeas) shows negligible decrease in crop water requirement
in the period 2011-2020 but all crops shows considerable increasing water requirement in the period 2021-2030
including the periods 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 as compared to base period 2003-2009. For meeting the increasing
water demand and to increase yield, over all water resources should be increased by doing water conservation practices
effectively and also farmers should be motivated to use drip or sprinkler irrigation system instead of flooding methods.
Keywords: Climate change, Future climate data prediction, Evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, LARS-WG, Crop water
requirement.
I. INTRODUCTION
Climate change is becoming the hottest topic to the entire globe. When it comes to defining climate, in general it can be
define as expected weather. When changes in the expected weather occur, we call these climate changes. Climate
may change in different ways, over different time scales and at different geographical scales. Since climate is changing,
scientists have become interested in global warming, due to mankind's impact on the climate system, through the
enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect.
Since climate change is likely to have impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on the available water
resources and agricultural water demand, there are concerns about the impacts of climate change on agricultural
productivity. Furthermore, industrialization and the extended use of fossil fuels have lead to a great increase in the
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. With respect to the relations between the hydrological cycle and the
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climate system, every change on the climate could affect parameters such as precipitation, temperature, runoff, stream
flow, groundwater level, and this leads to not only change in the crop water requirement in agriculture but also
industrial and domestic water consumption and demand will also change.
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to simulate the present and projected future climate considering various
climate change scenarios. A1, A2, B1 and B2 are four main climate change scenarios family. Scenarios are constructed
based on the assumptions of future human activities and future technological growth.
LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator) is a stochastic weather generator which can be used for
simulation of weather data considering various GCMs (General Circulation Model) climate change scenario files. In
this literature, LARS-WG is used for generating simulated climate data based on SRES A2 climate change scenario.
Crop water requirement can be defined as the depth of water needed to meet the water loss through evapotranspiration
of a disease-free crop growing in large fields under non restricting soil conditions including soil water and fertility and
achieving full production potential under the given growing environment.In general words, it is the amount of water
needed by the various crops to grow optimally.
Paper is organized as follows. Section II gives the detail about study area and types of data collected for this study.
Methodology is described in Section III with detail about LARS-WG. Section IV presents results showing results of
climate change on water requirement of Rabi and Hot Weather crops of study area. Finally, Section V presents
conclusion.
II. STUDY AREA AND DATA COLLECTION
The present study is carried out on the command area of Sukhi Reservoir located in Gujarat state. Sukhi Reservoir
Project, one of the major Water Resources projects is envisaged, constructed and developed by Govt. of Gujarat at the
confluence of Sukhi and Bharaj River near village Sagadhra and Khos in Pavijetpur and Chhota-Udepur Talika
respectively of Vadodara District in Gujarat. Sukhi Reservoir has its total catchment area of 411.81 sq.Km. Among this
total area, 25.90 sq.Km. is in Madhya Pradesh and 385.91 sq.Km. in Gujarat. Total 17094 Hectare land of 92 villages
of 3 Talukas of Vadodara district and 3607 Hectare land of 39 villages of 2 Talukas of Panchmahal district is benifited
due to this project. Figure 1 shows the location of Sukhi dam, catchment area, dam site and command area of Sukhi
reservoir.
Fig. 1 Location of Sukhi Dam, Catchment Area, Dam Site and Command Area
For this study, meteorological data were acquired from the State Water Data Centre, Gandhinagar which include daily
data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and rainfall for the period 2003 to
2009. Cropping pattern data included season wise crops grown in study area was acquired from Irrigation Department
Sub division No. 10, Bodeli. Crop data includes Length of crop development stages in days and crop coefficient (Kc)
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for each crop of all seasons were taken from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Irrigation and Drainage Paper
No. 56.
III. METHODOLOGY
Methodology is divided into three parts: (1) Generation of future climate data using LARS-WG 5.0, (2) ETo
calculation using CROPWAT, (3) Calculation of Crop Water Requirement.
LARS-WG 5.0
LARS-WG developed by Semenov and Barrow, is a stochastic weather generator model that has no limitations on the
size of the watershed and can be used for simulation of weather data at a single site (synoptic station of the study area),
under both current and future climate conditions. These data are in the form of daily time series of climate variables
including precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperature (C) and sunshine hours (hr).
(1) PROCEDURE TO GENERATE FUTURE CLIMATE DATA
The process of generating synthetic weather data can be divided into three distinct steps:
1. Model Calibration - site analysis - observed weather data are analysed to determine their statistical characteristics.
2. Model Validation Q test - the statistical characteristics of the observed and synthetic weather data are analyzed to
determine if there are any statistically-significant differences.
3. Generation of Synthetic Weather Data - generator - Synthetic data corresponding to a particular climate change
scenario are generated by applying global climate model-derived changes in precipitation, temperature and solar
radiation to the LARS-WG parameter files.
(2) ETo CALCULATION USING CROPWAT
In order to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo), using the Penman-Monteith method, monthly mean data are
required, including Maximum and minimum temperatures (C), Sunshine hours (hour), Wind Speed (km/day), Relative
Humidity (%). Wind speed and Relative humidity could not be simulated using LARS-WG. In order to incorporate
wind speed in estimation of ETo, long term observed monthly average wind speed in the period of 2003 to 2009 are
used and it is assumed that the wind speed would not significantly change in the future. Monthly relative humidity (RH)
is assumed to be a function of temperature, sunshine hours (Sun) and rainfall of the same month (Rain) as presented
here.
RH = f (Tmin, Tmax ,Sun ,Rain)
Minitab software is used to fit the multivariable linear regression function to find Relative Humidity for future years
(i.e 2011-2030, 2046-2065, 2080-2099)
Humidity = 118 + 2.46 T min - 3.18 T max - 0.756 Sunshine Hours + 0.442 rain
Finally, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in (mm/month) is calculated using CROPWAT model, for past (2003-2009)
as well as future weather data (2011-2030, 2046-2065, 2080-2099).
(3) CALCULATION OF CROP WATER REQUIREMENT
For this study following crops are considered. In sukhi command area crops viz., Wheat, Sorghum, Maize, Gram,
Cowpeas, Small Vegetables and Tomato are grown in Rabi season and crops viz., Millet, Groundnut, Maize, Small
Vegetables and Tomato are grown in Hot Weather season. Kc curves are drawn for all crops taking standard values of
crop development period, crop coefficient from FAO 56 and approximate planting date. Monthly Kc values are
calculated for Rabi and Hot Weather crops. Finally crop wise ETc is calculated using the formula given below.
ETc = Kc ETo
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IV. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
The statistical characteristics of the observed and synthetic weather data are analyzed to determine if there are any
statistically significant differences between observed and simulated data using t-test (a t-test is any statistical
hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a Students t distribution, if the null hypothesis is supported). Table 1
shows t test results
Table 1 Results of T Test and p-value
MONTHLY RAIN
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
t-calc
0.209
0.292
0.038
0.294
-0.715
p-value
0.834
0.77
0.969
0.769
0.475
MONTHLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
t-calc
-2.942
1.243
0.741
-0.053
0.048
-1.873
-0.883
-1.993
-0.312
0.918
0.353
-0.679
p-value
0.003
0.214
0.459
0.958
0.962
0.062
0.378
0.047
0.755
0.359
0.725
0.497
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
t-calc
-3.62
-0.082
-0.116
2.222
2.854
-2.129
-2.143
-0.797
-1.44
-1.108
1.66
-1.517
p-value
0.935
0.907
0.027
0.004
0.034
0.033
0.426
0.15
0.269
0.098
0.13
MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
MONTHLY RADIATION
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
t-calc
-3.044
3.738
-0.68
-0.701
-1.34
-1.938
-2.058
-1.004
-0.225
-0.721
-0.261
-1.88
p-value
0.002
0.497
0.484
0.181
0.053
0.04
0.316
0.822
0.471
0.795
0.061
t-tabulated = 1.960 for v = ( t-distribution Table of book miller & Freunds Probability and Statistics for Engineers)
= 0.05 (threshold p-value)
Here analysis is done based on t-calc and t-tabulated values and also comparing p-values with threshold p-value (0.05).
Here, hypothesis is checked.
Ho = Simulated climate is same as true climate.
H1 = Simulated climate is different from observed climate.
If t-calc > t-tabulated or t-calc < - t-tabulated then, reject Ho.
If p-value < 0.05 , it means that observed and predicted climate are different.
If p-value > 0.05, it means that observed and simulated climate are same.
Here, in table colored months shows acceptance of null hypothesis.
CROP WATER REQUIREMENT
Table 2 and table 3 shows decade Wise Average Crop Water requirement of rabi Crops and hot weather crops. Figure 2
to 13 shows Decade Wise Average Percentage Variation in ETc of various crops grown in rabi and hot weather season.
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Table 2 Decade Wise Average Crop Water requirement of Rabi Crops
DECADE
WHEAT
SORGHUM
MAIZE
2003-2009
431.73
412.54
446.82
2011-2020
430.63
410.98
2021-2030
432.49
2046-2055
2056-2065
RABI CROPS
SMALL
VEGETABLES
TOMATO
GRAM
COWPEAS
375.94
991.42
294.55
308.47
445.21
375.09
995.60
294.48
308.09
412.47
447.08
376.95
997.33
296.18
309.87
446.94
425.92
461.67
390.01
1026.86
306.34
320.43
448.82
427.44
463.57
391.87
1028.78
308.07
322.24
2080-2089
464.92
442.53
479.90
406.52
1062.35
319.38
334.00
2090-2099
466.75
444.00
481.76
408.27
1063.88
321.05
335.76
Table 3 Decade Wise Average Crop Water requirement of Hot Weather Crops
HOT WEATHER CROPS
DECADE
MILLET
GROUNDNUT
MAIZE
SMALL VEGETABLES
TOMATO
2003-2009
535.35
815.63
765.97
689.58
1070.01
2011-2020
539.33
833.33
783.62
694.80
1105.63
2021-2030
539.59
833.67
784.05
695.39
1106.70
2046-2055
554.19
856.12
804.97
714.34
1132.73
2056-2065
554.60
856.80
805.74
715.13
1134.85
2080-2089
571.33
881.37
828.69
736.83
1156.96
2090-2099
571.49
881.57
828.97
737.29
1158.20
Fig. 2 Decade Wise Average Percentage Fig. 3 Decade Wise Average

Variation in ETc of Wheat
Percentage Variation in ETc of
(Rabi Season)
Sorghum (Rabi Season)
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Fig. 4 Decade Wise Average

Percentage Variation in ETc of Maize
(Rabi Season)
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Percentage Variation in ETc of Small Percentage Variation in ETc of
Vegetables (Rabi Season)
Tomato (Rabi Season)

Gram (Rabi Season)
Figure 8 Decade Wise Average

Cowpeas (Rabi Season)

Percentage Variation in ETc of Millet Percentage Variation in ETc of
(Hot Weather Season)
Ground Nut (Hot Weather Season)

Maize (Hot Weather Season)

Percentage Variation in ETc of Small Percentage Variation in ETc of
Vegetables (Hot Weather Season)
Tomato (Hot Weather Season)
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COMPARISON OF WEATHER PARAMETERS
Various climate parameters like Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Sunshine Hour, Rain fall and Relative
humidity for past and future years are compared. For that year wise average is calculated for each climate parameter and
then decade wise average climate parameters are calculated for comparison.
Figure 14 to 17 shows the decade wise variation in Minimum Temperature, Maximum Temperature, Relative Humidity and
Rain fall.
Fig. 14 Decade Wise Variation in

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Relative Humidity
Fig. 17 Decade Wise Variation in Rain

Fall
V.
CONCLUSION
From t-test results we can conclude that for all months the mean of simulated and observed monthly rainfall are same.
The mean of simulated and observed monthly minimum temperature are same for all months except January and
August. The mean of simulated and observed monthly maximum temperature are same for February, March, August,
September, October, November and December. The mean of simulated and observed monthly solar radiation are same
for all months except January, February and July.
Results and analysis conclude the effect of climate change on crop water requirement of Rabi and Hot Weather crops.
There are both rise and fall in crop water requirement has been seen in this study. All Hot Weather crops (Millet,
Ground nut, Maize, Small vegetables and Tomato) shows rise in crop water requirement in all future periods (20112030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) as compared to base period 2003-2009. In the period 2011-2020, all Rabi crops
(Wheat, Sorghum, Maize, Small Vegetables, Tomato, Gram and Cowpeas) shows negligible fall in water requirement,
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whereas considerable rise in water requirement of all Rabi crops has been seen in other future periods (2021-2030,
2046-2065 and 2080-2090).
It has been concluded from the results and analysis that in future years crop water requirement will increase in the
study area. The reason for this may be due to increase in Maximum and Minimum temperature and decrease in
Relative humidity in future years. Also average rainfall of the study area is showing decreasing trend until end of 2065
and showing increasing trend until end of 2090.The results of this study will be useful for policy makers and planners
of water resources for the future planning of projects and suggest water saving techniques to satisfy increasing crop
water requirement.
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BIOGRAPHY
Dr. Falguni Parekh has completed B.E. (Civil-IWM) in August 1991, M.E. (Civil) in Irrigation Water
Management in July 1998 and Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from The M.S. University of Baroda,
Vadodara, Gujarat, India.
She is serving as Associate Professor in Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute,
Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The M. S. University of Baroda. She has 16 years of research
experience and 15 years of teaching experience. Her areas of research include Reservoir Operation,
Soft computing techniques, Micro Irrigation , Benchmarking of Irrigation Projects, Climate Change
and its Impact on Water Resources, Rain Water Harvesting, and Low cost Micro Irrigation Systems.
Dr. Parekh is Life Member of various professional bodies like Indian Society of Hydraulics, Indian Water Resources
Society, Association of Hydrologists of India and Association of Agrometeorologists and Indian Society of Geomatics.
She is chairman of Board of studies of WREMI and member of Faculty Board of Tech. & Engg. She is also joint
secretary of Gujarat Chapter of Association of Hydrologists of India. She Worked as Principal Investigator for
Research Project funded by Gujarat Council on Science and Technology and completed five institutional consultancy
projects. She is recipient of Prof. S.C. Puranik Young Scientist Award for the award winning paper in 2004 by
Association of Hydrologist of India. She has published 28 Research Papers in various International/ National Journals/
Conferences.
Kevin Pramodchandra Prajapati has completed B.E. (Civil-IWM) in 2011 and M.E. (Civil) in Water
Resources Engineering in August 2013 from Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute,
Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The M. S. University of Baroda. He is Life Member of various
professional bodies like Indian Society of Hydraulics and Indian Society of Geomatics.
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ISSN: 2319-8753

International Journal of Innovative Research in Science,

Vol. 2, Issue 9, September 2013