Good Info Capsim
Good Info Capsim
Good Info Capsim
2. Moving a product on the Perceptual Map cuts its perceived age in half. See the Age
Profile Chart. A saw-tooth line shows you a product's age before and after the
revision date.
3. R&D projects are billed at a rate of $1 million per year. A three-month project costs
$250 thousand. A six-month project costs $500 thousand.
4. Material costs are driven by the position on the Perceptual Map and by the MTBF
specification; the higher the technology and the greater the reliability, the higher the
material costs.
What is this tactic about?
Positioning a product means choosing product attributes that customers want. You have five
customer types or segments - Traditional, Low End, High End, Performance, and Size. They
are interested in four product characteristics - size, performance (which together are plotted
on the Perceptual Map), Age and Reliability. Each customer segment has different
preferences. Your task is to give customers what they want, and that requires repositioning
because the customer expectations change over time.
For example, a year from now customers will expect different size and performance
specifications, and your product will be a year older. You need to plan a revision today that
will give customers what they want a year from now.
Where do we get the data to plan a revision?
We need two reports - The Capstone Courier and the Industry Conditions Report. The
Courier was published yesterday, December 31st. We are making decisions on January 1st
for the upcoming year.
3
In the Courier we will find a Segment Analysis page associated with each segment. On the
page we will find a "Customer Buying Criteria" box. It tells us what customers wanted
yesterday. In the Industry Conditions Report, we will find how quickly those expectations
are changing. For example, suppose the Courier says that Traditional customers wanted a
performance of 5.0 yesterday. The Industry Conditions Report tells us that Traditional
customers expect Performance to improve by 0.7 each year. Therefore at the end of this
year, they will want a performance of 5.7.
We need to know four things. When our product comes out of R&D, what will customers
want for performance, size, age and reliability?
How do we make the decisions?
On the R&D spreadsheet, enter new performance, size, and MTBF specifications. Click
"Recalculate." Observe the following:
On the Perceptual Map, our product appears twice. The black letters show where our
product is today. We will make and sell the product at those specifications until the product
emerges from R&D. The magenta letters show where our product will be when it emerges
from R&D.
In the table we see a Revision Date and an Age at Revision. Whenever we move a product
on the map, no matter how far it moves, the day it emerges from R&D the customers
perceive it as being "new and improved," and they cut its age in half. We can see this
graphically in the Age Profile chart at the bottom of the spreadsheet. If a product is revised
in the middle of the year, its age profile will look like a saw-tooth.
In the Material Cost chart we can see the old product's material cost versus the revised
product. Two things drive material cost - the positioning on the map, and the MTBF
specification.
Are there tips to keep in mind?
Try to end your projects in December. Projects can only begin on January 1st. If an old
project is still underway on January 1st, we cannot begin a new one. Usually we should
keep projects under twelve months.
The more projects we add, the longer each project takes. This can cause earlier project
completion dates to slip. Always check the revision dates for all projects before saving
decisions.
Long projects can move a product from one segment to another - for example, from
Performance to Traditional. This can take two or even three years. Plan the project as a
series of one-year steps, with each step ending in December.
What do we need to do beyond the Rehearsal when the real competition begins?
1. Using the Courier and Industry Conditions reports, find out what customers will want
next year.
2. On the R&D spreadsheet, make decisions for Able, Acre, Adam, Aft and Agape.
3. Save your decisions. Click File and Update Official Decisions.
5
Product - in the context here, we are concerned with forecasting demand so that we can
produce adequate inventory. After all, no inventory, no sales. In a broader sense, product
design - the invention and positioning of a product - are also marketing concerns.
6
Instructions
1. In the Rehearsal Decision Spreadsheet (to the right of the Expand/Collapse bar),
select Production from the Decisions menu.
2. For Production Schedule:
o Set Able to 2100
o Set Acre to 2800
o Set Adam to 600
o Set Aft to 600
o Set Agape to 550 (Production Schedule units are in thousands; 550 means
550,000)
Click Recalculate
In the menu, select File and click Update Official Decisions.
Observe
1. Production After Adjustments is what we will actually produce.
2. Our inventory this year will be the Inventory On Hand with which we begin the year
plus our Production After Adjustments.
3. Our workforce complement (the number of workers required to meet our production
schedule) varies with number of units we produce. The more units produced, the
more workers we need.
4. There are two shifts - first and second. Second shift is paid a 50% premium over first
shift.
5. If the schedule requires a second shift, but there are not enough second shift
workers, first shift workers produce on overtime at a 50% premium over first shift.
6. Labor cost/unit is the average cost over all shifts and overtime to meet the
production schedule.
7. Material cost is not affected by the production schedule.
8. Contribution margin is defined as (Price - Unit Cost - Inventory Carry Cost) / Price. It
is the percentage of the price left over after paying variable costs.
What is this tactic about?
At the simplest level, we must have inventory to sell, and in this tactic we tell our plant how
many units to produce. We will offer our production, plus any inventory left over from last
year, for sale to our customers.
In a perfect world we would produce exactly enough inventory to meet demand.
Unfortunately, we cannot be certain what your competitors will do. Therefore, we must
manage two risks:
1. Stocking out. If we run out of inventory, we give our customers and our profits to
competitors.
2. Carrying too much inventory. We pay for inventory out of cash. If too much ends up
in the warehouse, we could run out of cash and take an emergency loan.
7
Where do we get the data to plan a production schedule?
The Team Member Guide, The Capstone Courier, and our marketing forecast.
The Team Member Guide discusses production in section 4.3. The Courier offers starting
inventory and capacity constraints on the Production page.
In Tactic 3 Marketing, we tried pessimistic sales forecasts. We said something like, "In our
worst case, we believe we can sell 900 thousand units of Able." But if 900 thousand units is
our worst case, what is our best case? We would like to have enough inventory to satisfy
our best case. Otherwise we stock out.
Suppose we decide our best case is 1200 units of Able, and that we have 100 already sitting
in the warehouse left over from last year. We would produce 1100.
If our worst case comes true, we end the year with 300 thousand units of inventory. If our
best case comes true, we end the year with 0 inventory but every customer is served.
In the worst case, we would have to buy 300 thousand units of inventory. At $20 per unit,
that would tie up $6 million of our cash. We can see how much cash we would have left by
bringing up the Proforma Balance Sheet. As long as we have $1 left in cash in our worst
case, we can say, "We planned for the worst, but we hope for the best."
How do we make the decisions?
Bring up the Production spreadsheet.
Your Unit Sales Forecast (ideally our worst case) was brought over from the Marketing
spreadsheet, and our Inventory On Hand (left over from last year) is shown below it. We
have our best case forecast.
Schedule enough production to meet our best case forecast.
Are there tips to keep in mind?
Consider the question, "How many months of inventory are we willing to carry?" For
example, three months of inventory means three months of sales sitting in the warehouse.
That is a policy decision. If your policy is 3 months, then your worst case sales are 9
months of sales, and your best case is 12/9ths or 4/3rds of your worst case. To get our best
case, we need only multiply our worst case by 4/3rds or 133%.
What do we need to do beyond the Rehearsal when the real competition begins?
1. Schedule enough production to meet your best case demand for each product.
1. In the Rehearsal Decision Spreadsheet (to the right of the Expand/Collapse bar),
select Production from the Decisions menu.
2. For Buy/Sell capacity:
o a. Sell 300 thousand units of capacity for Able by entering -300.
o b. Buy 400 thousand units of capacity for Acre by entering 400.
For New Automation Rating:
1. Increase Able's Automation to 5.0.
2. Increase Acre's Automation to 6.0.
Click Recalculate
In the menu, select File and click Update Official Decisions.
Observe
1. Selling capacity recovers 65% of its original value. Capacity is sold on January 1st.
2. Buying capacity takes one year to get delivery. You order capacity on January 1st. It
arrives on December 31st.
3. Similarly, automation changes take a year.
4. Your investment is totaled in the right-most column. The total investment cannot
exceed Max Investment.
5. Our inventory this year will be the Inventory On Hand with which we begin the year
plus our Production After Adjustments.
What is this tactic about?
Our plant produces our inventory. Capacity determines how many units we can produce in a
year. Automation determines the labor content in each unit.
Occasionally we need to buy or sell capacity. Investing in automation reduces our labor
costs. If we expand capacity or automation, we must also raise the money to pay for it.
Capacity is rated as, "The number of units that can be produced in a year on first shift." A
capacity of 800 means that we could produce up to 800 thousand units on first shift. We
could produce another 800 on second shift, but our labor costs would increase 50%.
Capacity and automation are ordered on January 1st and arrive on December 31st,
effectively one year later.
Suppose that we have capacity for 800. We expect demand to be 1200 next year. We could
produce 800 on first shift and 400 on second. Or we could increase capacity to 1200 and
produce everything on first shift. Or we could increase automation - we would still produce
400 on a second shift, but at some point our labor costs fall enough that we are indifferent.
How do we make the decisions?
Bring up the Production spreadsheet.
9
Under "Physical Plant" we see "Buy/Sell Capacity." To buy an additional 100 thousand units
of first shift capacity, enter "100." To sell 100 thousand units, enter "-100."
Automation is rated on a scale of 1 to 10. To increase automation enter a new value.
The cost of the investment appears as a positive number when buying equipment, and as a
negative number when selling.
Are there tips to keep in mind?
As a rule of thumb, always fully fund plant and equipment purchases. Sources of funding
include stock issues, bond issues, and depreciation. (Later in the tutorial we will discuss
"why.") For example, if we are spending $20 million on new plant, we should be able to add
together stock issues, bond issues and depreciation equaling $20 million. Like any rule of
thumb there are exceptions, but you should be able to explain why the exception is
appropriate before making the exception.
What do we need to do beyond the Rehearsal when the real competition begins?
10
3. You cannot retire more outstanding stock than the Max Stock Retire limit.
4. You are not required to pay a dividend. If you pay a dividend, it is expressed in
dollars per share.
5. Your cash position as of yesterday, and your cash position that is forecast for the end
of this year, are presented at the bottom of the left column.
6. You cannot issue more bonds that the Maximum issue this year limit.
7. Your Accounts Receivable and Accounts Payable lags are expressed in days.
Increasing your Receivables lag effectively gives a loan to customers. Increasing
your Payables lag effectively extracts a loan from vendors.
8. Your proforma financial statements estimate what your financial statements will look
like at the end of the year, assuming that your sales forecast is exactly correct.
What is this tactic about?
Ultimately this tactic is about funding our assets. Assets are paid for with debt and equity.
Consequences affect our performance ratios, our profitability, our growth, even our
company's viability.
How do we make the decisions?
Bring up the Finance worksheet.
We can raise debt two ways - with short term debt from our banker, and with long term
debt from our bondholders. Values are entered in thousands. For example, 4000 means $4
million dollars.
We can raise equity with stock issues, and by retaining the profits we make instead of
paying a dividend. Stock issues are entered in thousands.
We can reduce debt by paying down our current debt or by paying bonds early.
We can reduce equity by repurchasing stock or by paying a dividend. Dividends are entered
in dollars per share. For example, $1.49 means we will pay $1.49 to every share
outstanding.
There are two credit policies which can also affect our balance sheet - Accounts Receivable
and Accounts Payable credit policies. Both are expressed in days. For example, 30 days A/R
policy means that we give customers 30 days to pay our invoices.
Are there tips to keep in mind?
Keep the ratio of assets to equity (or leverage) between 33% and 66%. What does this
mean? Any asset is paid for with a mix of debt and equity. Let's use a personal asset for
discussion purposes. When a person buys a house, they make a down payment - say 20%.
The down payment is equity. That mix is 20% equity and 80% debt, or a leverage of 5.0.
(For every dollar of asset, $0.20 would be in equity, so assets/equity is 5.0.) In business a
leverage is 5.0 is very risky. It would be very difficult to make a profit after interest
payments, and the risk of default is high. At 33% equity, our leverage is 3.0. Risk becomes
11
more tolerable. At 50%, our leverage is 2.0 and comfort levels high. At 66% lenders are
eager to lend us money at favorable rates.
What do we need to do for the Rehearsal?
We have already issued stocks and bonds to cover plant purchases.
However, we have not considered current debt or a dividend.
1. Examine your Proforma Balance sheet.
2. Add together Inventory and Accounts Receivable. These are current assets, and they
should be funded by current liabilities and working capital. Current liabilities are the
sum of Accounts Payable and Current Borrowing.
3. There is a rule of thumb that you can use to calculate how much money to borrow
from your banker as current debt. Add together Inventory + Accts Receivable.
Roughly half should be funded with current liabilities. Therefore, your current debt =
(Inventory + Accounts Receivable)/2 - Accounts Payable.
4. Borrow the result on the Finance worksheet as new current debt in the "Borrow
($000)" cell.
5. On the Finance worksheet, examine the "Earnings Per Share" cell under common
stock. Assuming it is positive, how much of this do you wish to give to stockholders
as a dividend? Suppose your answer is half. Enter half the EPS in the Dividend Per
Share cell.
Tactic 6: Inventing a New Product
Instructions
1. In the Rehearsal Decision Spreadsheet (to the right of the Expand/Collapse bar),
select R&D from the Decisions menu.
2. In the first free row enter a Name Ace, set performance to 10.0, set size to 10.0, and
set MTBF to 25000. Click Recalculate.
3. Select Production from the Decisions menu.
4. For Buy/Sell capacity, buy 400,000 units of capcity by entering 400. For New Autom.
Rating enter 4.0. Click Recalculate.
5. Select Finance from the Decisions menu.
6. Increase Issue Stock to $13 million by entering 13000.
7. Increase Issue Long Term debt to $13 million by entering 13000.
8. In the menu, select File and click Update Official Decisions.
Observe
1. R&D for new products takes longer - typically between 1.4 and 3.0 years.
2. Since it takes a year to take delivery on new capacity, order capacity and automation
one year before the product emerges from R&D.
3. Finance the new plant with a mix of stock issues and bonds.
What is this tactic about?
12
Sometimes we want to invent new products. Perhaps we are replacing an old product, or
perhaps we are increasing our product breadth. We want to give customers what they want.
The process is almost the same as repositioning a product. However, we need to broaden
our perspective to include plant and equipment for our new product, and raising the money
to buy the plant.
Inventing a product takes longer than repositioning - typically between 1.4 and 3.0 years,
although most products are ready 1.6 to 2.0 years.
Where do we get the data to plan a new product?
We need two reports - The Capstone Courier, and the Industry Conditions Report. The
Courier was published yesterday, December 31st. We are making decisions on January 1st.
We need to think ahead two to three years.
As with repositioning, we use the Segment Analysis page of the Courier find out what
customers wanted yesterday, then use the Industry Conditions report to project into the
future. We need to know four things. When our product comes out of R&D, what will
customers want for performance, size, age and reliability?
We also need to get a sense for our capacity requirements. You will find the segment size
and growth rate for next year on the Segment Analysis page. However, capacity must be
evaluated in the face of competition. We can get a sense for competitors by looking at the
Segment Analysis, the Perceptual Map, and the Production Analysis page.
Our plan includes the product specifications, our plant and equipment requirements, and our
funding requirements.
How do we make the decisions?
Suppose we decide to create a new High End product called "Ace." Looking two years into
the future, we will give Ace a Performance of 10.0, Size of 10.0, and MTBF of 25000. We
hope to capture 1/6th of the market, so we will plan for 400 units of capacity at an
automation level of 4.0. This will require an investment of $8.8 million. We will raise $4.4
million with stock and $4.4 million with bonds.
On the R&D spreadsheet, we enter the product specifications. Name - Ace, Performance
10.0, Size 10.0, MTBF 25000. Click Calculate.
On the Production spreadsheet, we enter our capacity and automation requirements.
Capacity 400. Automation 4.0. We read the cost of the investment.
On the Finance spreadsheet, we raise the capital to fund our new plant. Issue Stock of $4
million (entered as 4000 because everything is in thousands). Issue Long Term Debt of $4.4
million (entered as 4400).
Under File, click Update Official Decisions.
Are there tips to keep in mind?
13
Do the repositioning decisions first. When you add the new product decisions, the revision
dates will slip. Adjust the repositioning projects so they end before January 1st if possible.
New products often emerge in mid-year. But plant and equipment are purchased on January
1st and arrive on December 31st. Therefore, our plant will sit idle for some period of time
until the product emerges from R&D. For example, suppose our product emerges in July of
next year. The plant would sit idle for 7 months. Sometimes it makes sense to either wait
until next year to buy the plant, or modify our project to end late in the year. For example,
if we modified our design to end in December, we could postpone purchasing plant until
next year.
What do we need to do for the Rehearsal?
Pick a segment for our new product. (Example, the High End segment.)
Using the Courier and the Industry Conditions Report, select specifications. (Example, Name
"Ace," Performance 10.0, Size 10.0, MTBF 25,000.)
Decide how much plant and equipment to purchase for our new product. (Example, 400
thousand units at an automation of 4.0 for an $8.8 million investment.)
Enter the product specifications on the R&D spreadsheet.
Enter the plant and equipment decisions on the Production spreadsheet.
Fund the plant and equipment using a roughly 50/50 mix of new stock and new bonds.
(Example, stock issue $4.4 million, bond issue $4.4 million.)
Save the decisions. Under File, select Update Official Decisions.
The Rehearsal Quiz and Processing
In the right-hand pane, click the Quiz link.
The quiz is straightforward. The six basic tactics are listed on the left. In the right column
we list six groups of action steps as groups A to F. Associate each tactic with a group of
action steps.
You must get all answers correct to complete the quiz. If you get them all right on the first
try, you earn a score of 100. If you get them all right on the second try, you earn a 90. On
the third try, 80, and so on.
Processing the Rehearsal
After you complete the quiz, a new menu item will appear - Process.
Processing will finalize your decisions, advance the clock one year, and allow you to
examine a new Capstone Courier.
Your instructor will be able to view the Sales and Profits which result from your decisions so
your tactics for the Rehearsal should maximize those for your company.
After you process, look at the results in The Capstone Courier.
You can play up to four rounds of the rehearsal. Simply make new decisions for the next
round process the round.
Alternatively, after Round 1, the Process menu offers a Replay option. Replay allows you to
edit last round's decisions and try again. For example, you could replay Round 1 as many
times as you wish. When you are satisfied with Round 1, you can advance to Round 2. You
can replay Round 2 as many times as you wish. (However, you cannot restart the Rehearsal
from the beginning, and you cannot back up beyond the current round.)
Good luck!
Reposition a product
Marketing a product
Scheduling production
Estimate a best case for demand for each product this year
Display the Production worksheet
Observe existing inventory
Schedule production to meet best case demand less existing inventory
Save the decisions
Estimate peak demand for each product for this year and next year
Examine unit costs and margins
Display the Production worksheet
Increase or decrease capacity as required
Increase automation as required
Observe the net cost of the investment