CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1095 Likely Voters

August 2-5, 2016

4.8%

1. Do you feel the economy in Arizona is generally doing ...?

Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Somewhat well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Somewhat badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Very badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%

2. Which best describes your view about the American way of life, as you know it:
Its changing for the better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Its changing for the worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Its about the same as its always been . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%

3. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential election in November?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

4. Compared to other recent elections, do you feel more or less motivated to vote this year
than in recent years?
More motivated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72%
Less motivated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
About the same as before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Havent been able to vote before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

1100 registered voters total were interviewed. 1095 likely voters are included.

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
5. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary
Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?
Voters selecting someone else in the initial question were given a choice of a selection of third party candidates

Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42%

Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Gary Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Jill Stein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Someone else . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Probably wont vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

6. Which best describes your support for [Candidate Choice] right now?
Asked of respondents voting for Clinton or Trump

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Not too strong Ill probably change at some point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

7. Would you ever consider voting for Hillary Clinton in November?

Asked of respondents not voting for Clinton

Yes, I would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Maybe, theres a long way to go until November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
No, I never would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%

8. Would you ever consider voting for Donald Trump in November?

Asked of respondents not voting for Trump

Yes, I would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Maybe, theres a long way to go until November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
No, I never would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
9. Now that Clinton and Trump are the official nominees, how do you feel about the choice you
have this year?
Asked of respondents not voting for 3rd party/Someone else

Its nice to have two good options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

Theres only one clear option for me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%
I dont really like either, but Im picking one anyway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Im still considering a third party or staying home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

10. If you had to choose, this election will really come down to which candidate:
Is most prepared for the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Can shake up the political system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Can protect the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Understands people like me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Can make the economy work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

11. How important are each of these issues to your vote?

Immigration
Terrorism
Health care
The budget deficit

Very important
66%
73%
71%
67%

Somewhat
important
29%
23%
25%
27%

Not too
important
5%
3%
4%
6%

12. How do you feel about the way Donald Trump responded to the Khan family, the parents
of the fallen U.S. solider, who spoke at the Democratic convention? Has Donald Trumps
response been:
Appropriate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Inappropriate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Havent heard enough about it to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
13. Whether or not you agree with him, when you hear Donald Trump criticize other people,
do you usually think:
Trump often sticks up for himself, and I like that about him . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Trump often seems insensitive, and I dont like that about him . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Both . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7%

14. Whether or not you agree with her policies, do you feel Hillary Clintons record is mostly
one of...
Trying to do what she thinks is right for regular people . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Trying to do things for herself and her political friends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%

15. Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than
they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:

The threat from ISIS

The state of the
economy
Crime and violence
in the US

Better
48%

Worse
16%

About as they
are
36%

52%

16%

32%

49%

15%

35%

16. Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than
they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:

The threat from ISIS

The state of the
economy
Crime and violence
in the US

Better
13%

Worse
40%

About as they
are
47%

16%

40%

44%

12%

43%

45%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
17. Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?

Is prepared to be
Commander in Chief
Would bring change
to Washington
Will look out for
people like you
Treats all people
fairly
Tells the truth

Describes

Does not describe

49%

51%

33%

67%

40%

60%

43%
29%

57%
71%

18. Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?

Is prepared to be
Commander in Chief
Would bring change
to Washington
Will look out for
people like you
Treats all people
fairly
Tells the truth

Describes

Does not describe

39%

61%

70%

30%

46%

54%

39%
47%

61%
53%

19. Do you think a wall along the U.S. Mexico border is...
A good idea that can probably be completed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
A good idea that should be tried, even if it cant be completed . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
A bad idea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
20. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
They should be allowed to stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
They should be allowed to stay in the US legally, but not be allowed to apply for
citizenship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
They should be required to leave the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%

21. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Somewhat liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Somewhat conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

22. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

23. Is Hillary Clinton listening enough to the concerns of Bernie Sanders and his backers?
Asked of Democratic and Independent identifiers

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
It doesnt matter whether she does or not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
24. How much do the endorsements and views of Republican party leaders matter in your
vote decision?
Asked of Republican identifiers

A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

25. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%

26. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

27. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%

28. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
29. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

30. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona
1. State Economy
Do you feel the economy in Arizona is generally doing ...?
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Somewhat badly
Very badly
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

9%
45%
36%
10%

11%
48%
33%
8%

7%
41%
39%
12%

4%
50%
39%
8%

23%
39%
28%
10%

4%
46%
39%
10%

2%
43%
42%
13%

8%
44%
38%
10%

12%
44%
38%
7%

11%
54%
18%
17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(556)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,095)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Very well
Somewhat well
Somewhat badly
Very badly
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

9%
45%
36%
10%

18%
51%
27%
4%

8%
41%
37%
13%

3%
43%
42%
12%

14%
54%
26%
5%

10%
45%
37%
8%

6%
39%
40%
14%

12%
38%
37%
13%

8%
48%
36%
9%

11%
30%
42%
18%

9%
51%
34%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,095)

(317)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(460)

(360)

(735)

(334)

(761)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

2. American Way of Life

Which best describes your view about the American way of life, as you know it:
Gender
Its changing for the better
Its changing for the worse
Its about the same as its always been
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

25%
61%
14%

31%
55%
14%

18%
67%
14%

32%
50%
18%

38%
48%
14%

14%
74%
12%

10%
75%
16%

23%
65%
12%

30%
50%
20%

20%
59%
21%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(537)

(247)

(322)

(372)

(152)

(804)

100%

(1,092)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Its changing for the better
Its changing for the worse
Its about the same as its always been
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

25%
61%
14%

49%
33%
18%

19%
64%
17%

10%
83%
8%

49%
36%
15%

25%
53%
22%

12%
80%
8%

19%
72%
9%

27%
56%
17%

15%
82%
4%

29%
52%
19%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,092)

(317)

(412)

(349)

(229)

(406)

(457)

(357)

(735)

(331)

(760)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

3. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential election in November?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%

96%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%

94%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%

93%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%

94%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%

97%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%

99%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%

96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%

93%
4%
2%
0%
0%
0%

95%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(556)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,095)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%

95%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%

96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%

95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%

96%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%

93%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%

97%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%

95%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%

96%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%

97%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%

95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,095)

(317)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(460)

(360)

(735)

(334)

(761)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

4. Motivated to Vote this Year

Compared to other recent elections, do you feel more or less motivated to vote this year than in recent years?
Gender
More motivated
Less motivated
About the same as before
Havent been able to vote before
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

72%
9%
16%
3%

71%
7%
17%
5%

72%
12%
15%
0%

62%
13%
14%
11%

76%
8%
16%
0%

73%
9%
18%
0%

74%
8%
18%
0%

69%
9%
19%
3%

80%
10%
8%
3%

77%
9%
14%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(556)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,095)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
More motivated
Less motivated
About the same as before
Havent been able to vote before
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

72%
9%
16%
3%

84%
4%
10%
2%

67%
10%
19%
4%

68%
12%
18%
2%

74%
7%
13%
6%

68%
11%
21%
0%

74%
9%
14%
3%

68%
12%
17%
4%

73%
8%
16%
2%

82%
5%
11%
2%

67%
11%
19%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,095)

(317)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(460)

(360)

(735)

(334)

(761)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

5. Presidential Vote 2016

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you
vote for?
Voters selecting someone else in the initial question were given a choice of a selection of third party candidates

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Someone else
Not sure
Probably wont vote
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

42%
44%
5%
2%
2%
5%
0%

41%
48%
6%
3%
0%
2%
0%

44%
39%
4%
0%
3%
11%
0%

50%
22%
11%
6%
1%
9%
0%

52%
35%
5%
0%
1%
5%
0%

33%
58%
2%
0%
2%
6%
0%

31%
62%
1%
0%
2%
4%
0%

34%
53%
6%
0%
2%
5%
0%

67%
13%
2%
8%
1%
9%
0%

50%
37%
3%
1%
0%
8%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(151)

(806)

100%

(1,095)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Someone else
Not sure
Probably wont vote
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

42%
44%
5%
2%
2%
5%
0%

89%
6%
1%
0%
1%
3%
0%

34%
44%
9%
4%
3%
6%
0%

11%
78%
3%
0%
1%
7%
0%

82%
2%
2%
8%
1%
5%
0%

50%
33%
7%
0%
1%
8%
0%

15%
73%
4%
0%
2%
5%
0%

28%
60%
4%
0%
2%
6%
0%

49%
35%
5%
2%
1%
6%
0%

20%
75%
2%
0%
1%
2%
0%

52%
30%
6%
2%
2%
8%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,095)

(317)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(459)

(360)

(735)

(333)

(761)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

6. Support for Candidate

Which best describes your support for [Candidate Choice] right now?
Asked of respondents voting for Clinton or Trump

Gender
Very strong Ive decided
Strong I probably wont change
Somewhat strong I might still
change
Not too strong Ill probably change
at some point
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

67%
23%

66%
25%

68%
20%

55%
24%

68%
23%

71%
21%

69%
23%

68%
22%

60%
23%

10%

9%

10%

19%

8%

6%

8%

9%

16%

0%

1%

1%

2%

0%

2%

0%

1%

1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(492)

(438)

(178)

(275)

(337)

(140)

(694)

100%

(930)

Party ID
Very strong Ive decided
Strong I probably wont change
Somewhat strong I might still
change
Not too strong Ill probably change
at some point
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(28)

(158)

White Evangelical

(50)
Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

67%
23%

70%
20%

62%
26%

69%
22%

72%
23%

58%
27%

72%
19%

66%
24%

67%
22%

77%
15%

62%
26%

10%

10%

10%

8%

4%

13%

9%

9%

10%

8%

10%

0%

0%

2%

1%

1%

2%

0%

1%

1%

0%

2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(930)

(302)

(320)

(302)

(193)

(331)

(405)

(311)

(619)

(310)

(619)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

7. Consider Clinton
Would you ever consider voting for Hillary Clinton in November?
Asked of respondents not voting for Clinton

Gender
Yes, I would
Maybe, theres a long way to go until
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)

Total

Male

3%

3%

12%
85%

Age group

Female

30-44

45-64

3%

2%

9%

2%

0%

4%

1%

8%
89%

17%
80%

25%
73%

13%
78%

7%
92%

9%
91%

9%
87%

28%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(330)

(304)

(123)

(155)

(251)

(105)

(535)

100%

(634)

Party ID
Total
Yes, I would
Maybe, theres a long way to go until
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

18-29

Democrat

Independent

65+

White

Ideology
Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Black

Hispanic

(3)

Conservative

Yes

(66)

White Evangelical
No

Other

(30)
Tea Party

Yes

No

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

4%

3%

4%

12%
85%

15%
83%

6%
91%

17%
80%

7%
90%

11%
86%

13%
84%

2%
95%

20%
77%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(314)

100%

(273)

(202)

(391)

(260)

(374)

(268)

(366)

100%
(634)

(35)

(41)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

8. Consider Trump
Would you ever consider voting for Donald Trump in November?
Asked of respondents not voting for Trump

Gender
Yes, I would
Maybe, theres a long way to go until
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)

Total

Male

3%

3%

17%
80%

Age group

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

3%

1%

6%

2%

0%

4%

0%

15%
82%

19%
78%

14%
84%

23%
71%

14%
84%

12%
88%

20%
76%

14%
86%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(286)

(331)

(193)

(210)

(156)

(58)

(378)

100%

(617)

Party ID
Total
Yes, I would
Maybe, theres a long way to go until
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Democrat

Independent

65+

White

Ideology
Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Black

Hispanic

(30)

Conservative

Yes

(172)

White Evangelical
No

Other

(38)
Tea Party

Yes

No

3%

4%

0%

4%

1%

0%

11%

7%

2%

13%

1%

17%
80%

7%
88%

19%
81%

46%
51%

7%
92%

22%
78%

26%
63%

31%
62%

13%
85%

32%
55%

15%
84%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(298)

(231)

(78)

(224)

(271)

(122)

(143)

(475)

(83)

(534)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

9. Candidate Choices this Year

Now that Clinton and Trump are the official nominees, how do you feel about the choice you have this year?
Asked of respondents not voting for 3rd party/Someone else

Gender
Its nice to have two good options
Theres only one clear option for me
I dont really like either, but Im picking
one anyway
Im still considering a third party or
staying home
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
59%

6%
63%

3%
56%

4%
54%

10%
63%

0%
59%

2%
62%

4%
59%

4%
63%

5%
53%

32%

29%

36%

36%

23%

38%

35%

33%

29%

39%

4%

2%

5%

6%

4%

3%

1%

4%

4%

4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(502)

(483)

(194)

(294)

(352)

(146)

(731)

100%

(986)

(172)

(54)

Party ID
Its nice to have two good options
Theres only one clear option for me
I dont really like either, but Im picking
one anyway
Im still considering a third party or
staying home
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Ideology

(29)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

4%
59%

7%
63%

4%
57%

3%
60%

2%
66%

7%
56%

3%
60%

8%
52%

3%
63%

7%
65%

3%
57%

32%

28%

35%

34%

30%

33%

33%

36%

31%

27%

35%

4%

2%

5%

3%

2%

3%

5%

5%

3%

1%

5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(986)

(312)

(335)

(329)

(204)

(354)

(428)

(330)

(656)

(316)

(669)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

10. Deciding Factor in Election

If you had to choose, this election will really come down to which candidate:
Gender
Is most prepared for the job
Can shake up the political system
Can protect the United States
Understands people like me
Can make the economy work
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

32%
16%
20%
10%
22%

33%
20%
16%
9%
22%

31%
12%
25%
10%
21%

40%
7%
24%
14%
14%

32%
14%
21%
11%
22%

27%
21%
17%
7%
28%

29%
24%
20%
7%
20%

29%
18%
23%
8%
22%

41%
9%
11%
17%
21%

35%
12%
26%
12%
16%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(537)

(247)

(324)

(370)

(150)

(803)

100%

(1,091)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Is most prepared for the job
Can shake up the political system
Can protect the United States
Understands people like me
Can make the economy work
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

32%
16%
20%
10%
22%

51%
3%
14%
16%
15%

32%
18%
17%
10%
22%

14%
26%
29%
4%
27%

63%
6%
4%
15%
12%

35%
11%
19%
11%
25%

13%
26%
30%
7%
25%

18%
19%
28%
11%
23%

39%
14%
16%
9%
21%

12%
25%
26%
7%
29%

40%
12%
18%
11%
19%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,091)

(316)

(412)

(351)

(228)

(405)

(458)

(358)

(733)

(333)

(758)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

11. Importance of Issues to Vote Immigration

How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

66%
29%
5%

61%
34%
5%

71%
23%
6%

65%
33%
1%

63%
29%
7%

66%
27%
7%

72%
24%
4%

65%
30%
5%

74%
20%
6%

65%
31%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(553)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(369)

(152)

(804)

100%

(1,093)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

66%
29%
5%

56%
34%
10%

65%
30%
5%

76%
22%
1%

51%
39%
11%

55%
38%
7%

83%
16%
1%

74%
24%
2%

62%
31%
7%

82%
17%
1%

59%
34%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,093)

(317)

(412)

(350)

(229)

(406)

(457)

(358)

(735)

(334)

(758)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

12. Importance of Issues to Vote Terrorism

How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

73%
23%
3%

68%
26%
5%

79%
20%
1%

72%
24%
4%

67%
28%
5%

78%
20%
2%

80%
18%
3%

73%
23%
3%

73%
23%
5%

74%
25%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(539)

(247)

(324)

(372)

(151)

(806)

100%

(1,094)

(197)

(60)

Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

73%
23%
3%

61%
35%
4%

72%
23%
5%

87%
13%
0%

51%
37%
12%

68%
30%
2%

90%
10%
0%

84%
15%
1%

68%
27%
4%

84%
14%
1%

69%
27%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,094)

(316)

(412)

(352)

(228)

(406)

(459)

(360)

(734)

(333)

(760)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

13. Importance of Issues to Vote Health care

How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

71%
25%
4%

65%
29%
5%

77%
21%
2%

70%
26%
4%

74%
22%
4%

68%
28%
4%

72%
25%
3%

68%
28%
5%

85%
15%
1%

64%
31%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(553)

(536)

(247)

(324)

(372)

(147)

(805)

100%

(1,089)

(196)

(58)

Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

71%
25%
4%

82%
14%
4%

68%
29%
4%

66%
30%
4%

90%
9%
1%

66%
29%
5%

66%
29%
5%

68%
27%
6%

73%
24%
3%

68%
25%
7%

72%
25%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,089)

(315)

(410)

(351)

(229)

(404)

(456)

(360)

(730)

(329)

(760)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

14. Importance of Issues to Vote The budget deficit

How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

67%
27%
6%

63%
28%
9%

70%
26%
4%

66%
28%
6%

61%
29%
10%

71%
23%
6%

69%
27%
4%

69%
24%
8%

63%
32%
5%

58%
38%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(151)

(805)

100%

(1,094)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

67%
27%
6%

49%
38%
12%

68%
25%
7%

80%
18%
1%

51%
33%
16%

59%
33%
8%

81%
18%
1%

75%
19%
5%

62%
30%
7%

88%
9%
3%

57%
34%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,094)

(317)

(412)

(351)

(229)

(406)

(459)

(359)

(735)

(333)

(761)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

15. Trumps Response to Khan Family

How do you feel about the way Donald Trump responded to the Khan family, the parents of the fallen U.S. solider, who spoke at the Democratic convention? Has
Donald Trumps response been:
Gender
Appropriate
Inappropriate
Havent heard enough about it to say
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

26%
53%
20%

33%
53%
14%

20%
54%
26%

15%
62%
23%

29%
55%
16%

32%
46%
22%

26%
53%
20%

31%
48%
21%

13%
71%
16%

26%
47%
27%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(538)

(247)

(325)

(371)

(150)

(805)

100%

(1,093)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Appropriate
Inappropriate
Havent heard enough about it to say
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

26%
53%
20%

9%
80%
12%

25%
55%
20%

45%
29%
27%

2%
90%
7%

23%
59%
18%

42%
30%
28%

32%
39%
29%

24%
60%
16%

57%
29%
14%

13%
64%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,093)

(317)

(411)

(352)

(229)

(405)

(460)

(360)

(734)

(334)

(759)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

16. Trumps Criticism of Others

Whether or not you agree with him, when you hear Donald Trump criticize other people, do you usually think:
Gender
Trump often sticks up for himself, and
I like that about him
Trump often seems insensitive, and I
dont like that about him
Both
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

29%

33%

25%

19%

30%

33%

33%

34%

12%

27%

50%
14%
7%

43%
16%
8%

57%
12%
6%

62%
11%
9%

54%
14%
3%

42%
17%
8%

43%
14%
10%

42%
17%
7%

77%
4%
7%

48%
19%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(556)

(537)

(244)

(325)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,092)

(198)

(58)

Party ID
Total
Trump often sticks up for himself, and
I like that about him
Trump often seems insensitive, and I
dont like that about him
Both
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Democrat

Ideology

Independent

Republican

Liberal

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

29%

8%

29%

48%

2%

25%

46%

36%

26%

55%

18%

50%
14%
7%

81%
5%
6%

43%
18%
10%

30%
17%
4%

79%
8%
11%

57%
14%
5%

29%
18%
7%

33%
23%
8%

58%
10%
6%

25%
13%
7%

61%
15%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,092)

(314)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(457)

(360)

(733)

(334)

(758)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

17. Clintons Record

Whether or not you agree with her policies, do you feel Hillary Clintons record is mostly one of...
Gender
Trying to do what she thinks is right
for regular people
Trying to do things for herself and her
political friends
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

37%

34%

40%

42%

45%

30%

27%

31%

59%

26%

63%

66%

60%

58%

55%

70%

73%

69%

41%

74%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(556)

(539)

(247)

(325)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,095)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Trying to do what she thinks is right
for regular people
Trying to do things for herself and her
political friends
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

37%

76%

28%

13%

70%

46%

12%

24%

43%

19%

45%

63%

24%

72%

87%

30%

54%

88%

76%

57%

81%

55%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,095)

(317)

(412)

(352)

(229)

(406)

(460)

(360)

(735)

(334)

(760)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

18. Clinton Too Optimistic The threat from ISIS

Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

48%
16%
36%

48%
17%
35%

48%
14%
38%

30%
16%
54%

47%
20%
32%

56%
13%
31%

57%
11%
32%

52%
16%
32%

37%
14%
49%

33%
19%
48%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(539)

(530)

(235)

(319)

(369)

(145)

(784)

100%

(1,069)

(198)

(57)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

48%
16%
36%

28%
14%
58%

47%
16%
38%

68%
18%
14%

19%
14%
67%

37%
16%
47%

71%
16%
12%

63%
16%
21%

40%
15%
44%

68%
16%
16%

39%
15%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,069)

(315)

(406)

(335)

(227)

(386)

(456)

(355)

(713)

(322)

(746)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

19. Clinton Too Optimistic The state of the economy

Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

52%
16%
32%

52%
16%
32%

51%
17%
32%

42%
22%
36%

49%
16%
35%

58%
15%
27%

58%
11%
31%

54%
16%
29%

46%
17%
37%

40%
19%
41%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(541)

(532)

(236)

(319)

(370)

(148)

(789)

100%

(1,073)

(198)

(57)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

52%
16%
32%

38%
8%
54%

51%
17%
31%

65%
23%
12%

35%
8%
56%

39%
17%
44%

70%
20%
10%

66%
16%
18%

44%
17%
39%

74%
16%
10%

42%
16%
41%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,073)

(316)

(409)

(335)

(229)

(390)

(455)

(356)

(717)

(322)

(750)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

20. Clinton Too Optimistic Crime and violence in the US

Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%
15%
35%

51%
15%
33%

47%
16%
37%

43%
14%
42%

49%
16%
35%

53%
16%
31%

52%
15%
33%

52%
16%
32%

45%
13%
42%

36%
18%
46%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(541)

(531)

(236)

(319)

(370)

(147)

(787)

100%

(1,072)

(198)

(57)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%
15%
35%

34%
7%
59%

49%
18%
33%

65%
20%
15%

30%
10%
60%

37%
17%
46%

70%
17%
13%

65%
13%
22%

42%
17%
41%

69%
16%
15%

41%
15%
44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,072)

(317)

(407)

(335)

(229)

(388)

(456)

(356)

(716)

(322)

(749)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

21. Trump Too Optimistic The threat from ISIS

Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

13%
40%
47%

14%
42%
43%

12%
37%
52%

17%
54%
29%

20%
41%
39%

6%
31%
63%

7%
32%
60%

12%
32%
55%

16%
61%
23%

15%
47%
38%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(544)

(532)

(244)

(313)

(369)

(149)

(801)

100%

(1,076)

(190)

(55)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

13%
40%
47%

12%
69%
19%

11%
43%
46%

16%
10%
74%

7%
77%
16%

18%
46%
36%

11%
16%
73%

10%
18%
73%

14%
50%
35%

15%
14%
71%

12%
51%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,076)

(308)

(403)

(351)

(225)

(393)

(458)

(358)

(718)

(328)

(747)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

22. Trump Too Optimistic The state of the economy

Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

16%
40%
44%

18%
43%
39%

13%
37%
50%

20%
50%
30%

24%
44%
32%

10%
31%
59%

5%
40%
56%

13%
36%
52%

30%
49%
21%

16%
50%
33%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(548)

(534)

(244)

(319)

(369)

(150)

(801)

100%

(1,082)

(195)

(56)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

16%
40%
44%

20%
64%
16%

12%
43%
45%

16%
16%
68%

11%
75%
14%

23%
45%
33%

12%
19%
69%

14%
22%
65%

17%
49%
34%

21%
13%
66%

14%
52%
34%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,082)

(314)

(405)

(349)

(225)

(400)

(457)

(358)

(724)

(332)

(749)

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

23. Trump Too Optimistic Crime and violence in the US

Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

12%
43%
45%

12%
45%
42%

11%
41%
48%

18%
54%
28%

16%
46%
38%

7%
36%
58%

5%
38%
57%

10%
38%
53%

18%
59%
22%

19%
49%
32%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(550)

(532)

(244)

(319)

(370)

(150)

(801)

100%

(1,082)

(195)

(55)

Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

12%
43%
45%

15%
71%
14%

9%
46%
45%

13%
14%
73%

9%
77%
14%

17%
49%
34%

9%
21%
70%

8%
24%
68%

13%
53%
34%

15%
16%
69%

11%
55%
34%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,082)

(314)

(404)

(351)

(225)

(399)

(458)

(359)

(723)

(333)

(749)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

24. Clinton Traits Is prepared to be Commander in Chief

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%
51%

52%
48%

47%
53%

54%
46%

63%
37%

39%
61%

39%
61%

42%
58%

67%
33%

61%
39%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(553)

(532)

(243)

(325)

(368)

(149)

(798)

100%

(1,085)

(196)

(60)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%
51%

86%
14%

44%
56%

22%
78%

89%
11%

58%
42%

22%
78%

34%
66%

57%
43%

21%
79%

61%
39%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,085)

(314)

(409)

(349)

(229)

(401)

(456)

(356)

(729)

(327)

(757)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

25. Clinton Traits Would bring change to Washington

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%
67%

26%
74%

40%
60%

47%
53%

42%
58%

20%
80%

23%
77%

28%
72%

48%
52%

33%
67%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(549)

(532)

(243)

(319)

(369)

(149)

(797)

100%

(1,080)

(193)

(60)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

33%
67%

63%
37%

22%
78%

20%
80%

48%
52%

36%
64%

22%
78%

27%
73%

36%
64%

25%
75%

37%
63%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,080)

(308)

(410)

(349)

(228)

(401)

(452)

(356)

(725)

(329)

(751)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

26. Clinton Traits Will look out for people like you
Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

40%
60%

40%
60%

41%
59%

45%
55%

55%
45%

28%
72%

31%
69%

34%
66%

60%
40%

38%
62%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(548)

(531)

(244)

(320)

(369)

(146)

(795)

100%

(1,079)

(193)

(60)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

40%
60%

82%
18%

31%
69%

16%
84%

67%
33%

50%
50%

17%
83%

27%
73%

47%
53%

22%
78%

48%
52%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,079)

(309)

(409)

(348)

(228)

(401)

(450)

(354)

(725)

(328)

(750)

26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

27. Clinton Traits Treats all people fairly

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

43%
57%

43%
57%

43%
57%

48%
52%

56%
44%

32%
68%

32%
68%

36%
64%

64%
36%

49%
51%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(554)

(534)

(244)

(325)

(369)

(150)

(799)

100%

(1,088)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

43%
57%

84%
16%

33%
67%

19%
81%

74%
26%

53%
47%

19%
81%

27%
73%

51%
49%

22%
78%

52%
48%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,088)

(313)

(410)

(351)

(228)

(401)

(459)

(357)

(730)

(329)

(758)

27

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

28. Clinton Traits Tells the truth

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

29%
71%

30%
70%

27%
73%

35%
65%

39%
61%

19%
81%

21%
79%

23%
77%

45%
55%

30%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(554)

(531)

(244)

(323)

(368)

(150)

(798)

100%

(1,084)

(197)

(59)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

29%
71%

64%
36%

19%
81%

10%
90%

54%
46%

33%
67%

12%
88%

17%
83%

35%
65%

17%
83%

34%
66%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,084)

(312)

(410)

(349)

(228)

(398)

(458)

(357)

(728)

(327)

(756)

28

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

29. Trump Traits Is prepared to be Commander in Chief

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

39%
61%

44%
56%

34%
66%

25%
75%

34%
66%

49%
51%

50%
50%

46%
54%

16%
84%

37%
63%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(549)

(531)

(247)

(320)

(366)

(146)

(797)

100%

(1,080)

(196)

(57)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

39%
61%

10%
90%

39%
61%

66%
34%

3%
97%

32%
68%

64%
36%

53%
47%

33%
67%

69%
31%

26%
74%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,080)

(316)

(408)

(342)

(228)

(402)

(450)

(355)

(725)

(328)

(751)

29

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

30. Trump Traits Would bring change to Washington

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

70%
30%

74%
26%

66%
34%

64%
36%

62%
38%

79%
21%

75%
25%

77%
23%

50%
50%

66%
34%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(547)

(534)

(247)

(315)

(369)

(151)

(801)

100%

(1,082)

(193)

(57)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

70%
30%

43%
57%

72%
28%

91%
9%

45%
55%

63%
37%

89%
11%

79%
21%

66%
34%

86%
14%

63%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,082)

(311)

(412)

(345)

(228)

(403)

(451)

(358)

(724)

(332)

(749)

30

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

31. Trump Traits Will look out for people like you
Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

46%
54%

52%
48%

39%
61%

27%
73%

43%
57%

57%
43%

56%
44%

55%
45%

17%
83%

40%
60%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(546)

(531)

(247)

(315)

(368)

(146)

(796)

100%

(1,076)

(193)

(57)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

46%
54%

11%
89%

47%
53%

78%
22%

3%
97%

37%
63%

76%
24%

63%
37%

38%
62%

79%
21%

31%
69%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,076)

(311)

(411)

(342)

(227)

(403)

(446)

(353)

(723)

(330)

(746)

31

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

32. Trump Traits Treats all people fairly

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

39%
61%

45%
55%

32%
68%

21%
79%

36%
64%

47%
53%

51%
49%

45%
55%

17%
83%

39%
61%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(547)

(532)

(247)

(315)

(368)

(149)

(799)

100%

(1,079)

(193)

(57)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

39%
61%

13%
87%

38%
62%

64%
36%

2%
98%

33%
67%

63%
37%

54%
46%

31%
69%

71%
29%

24%
76%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,079)

(311)

(411)

(344)

(228)

(403)

(449)

(356)

(724)

(330)

(748)

32

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

33. Trump Traits Tells the truth

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

47%
53%

51%
49%

44%
56%

34%
66%

45%
55%

55%
45%

54%
46%

55%
45%

22%
78%

45%
55%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(547)

(533)

(247)

(315)

(368)

(149)

(799)

100%

(1,079)

(193)

(57)

Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

47%
53%

11%
89%

48%
52%

79%
21%

9%
91%

40%
60%

74%
26%

62%
38%

40%
60%

78%
22%

34%
66%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,079)

(311)

(411)

(344)

(228)

(403)

(449)

(356)

(723)

(330)

(749)

33

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

34. U.S. Mexico Border Wall

Do you think a wall along the U.S. Mexico border is...
Gender
A good idea that can probably be
completed
A good idea that should be tried, even
if it cant be completed
A bad idea
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

36%

37%

35%

18%

33%

47%

43%

42%

15%

43%

17%
47%

16%
47%

19%
46%

11%
71%

16%
50%

21%
32%

21%
36%

20%
38%

9%
76%

15%
41%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(555)

(539)

(247)

(324)

(372)

(152)

(806)

100%

(1,094)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
A good idea that can probably be
completed
A good idea that should be tried, even
if it cant be completed
A bad idea
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

36%

12%

35%

59%

17%
47%

11%
77%

17%
48%

100%

100%

(1,094)

(317)

Liberal

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

4%

28%

59%

49%

30%

68%

22%

23%
18%

6%
90%

17%
55%

23%
18%

23%
28%

15%
56%

14%
17%

19%
60%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(412)

(352)

(229)

(405)

(460)

(359)

(735)

(334)

(760)

34

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

35. Immigration
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
Gender
They should be allowed to stay in the
US and eventually apply for
citizenship.
They should be allowed to stay in the
US legally, but not be allowed to apply
for citizenship.
They should be required to leave the
US.
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%

46%

51%

65%

54%

37%

39%

42%

69%

48%

17%

21%

12%

13%

19%

16%

17%

18%

17%

8%

34%

33%

37%

22%

27%

46%

44%

40%

15%

44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(547)

(536)

(247)

(319)

(370)

(148)

(795)

100%

(1,084)

(198)

(60)

Party ID
They should be allowed to stay in the
US and eventually apply for
citizenship.
They should be allowed to stay in the
US legally, but not be allowed to apply
for citizenship.
They should be required to leave the
US.
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(30)

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%

77%

46%

25%

84%

55%

25%

32%

56%

21%

60%

17%

12%

18%

19%

8%

19%

19%

21%

15%

23%

14%

34%

11%

36%

56%

8%

27%

56%

47%

29%

56%

26%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,084)

(312)

(412)

(347)

(228)

(405)

(451)

(350)

(734)

(326)

(757)

35

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

36. Clinton Listening to Sanderss Supporters

Is Hillary Clinton listening enough to the concerns of Bernie Sanders and his backers?
Asked of Democratic and Independent identifiers

Gender
Yes
No
It doesnt matter whether she does or
not
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

40%
35%

36%
39%

45%
30%

43%
41%

39%
34%

40%
31%

42%
29%

34%
39%

48%
30%

25%

25%

25%

16%

27%

29%

30%

27%

21%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(341)

(325)

(173)

(222)

(197)

(74)

(424)

100%

(667)

Party ID
Yes
No
It doesnt matter whether she does or
not
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(29)

(167)

White Evangelical

(46)
Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

40%
35%

60%
28%

22%
41%

55%
35%

39%
33%

23%
37%

28%
37%

44%
34%

31%
31%

43%
35%

25%

12%

37%

10%

28%

40%

35%

22%

38%

22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(317)

(350)

100%

(667)

(213)

(300)

(154)

(153)

(514)

(138)

(528)

(0)

36

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Arizona

37. Republican Leader Endorsements

How much do the endorsements and views of Republican party leaders matter in your vote decision?
Asked of Republican identifiers

Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

15%
29%
30%
26%

18%
26%
28%
28%

12%
31%
32%
25%

15%
31%
18%
36%

5%
31%
36%
28%

10%
32%
33%
24%

16%
30%
28%
26%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(144)

(167)

100%

(310)

(85)

(119)

(64)

(278)

(42)

Party ID
A lot
Some
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

(1)

(22)

White Evangelical

(9)
Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

15%
29%
30%
26%

15%
29%
30%
27%

20%
31%
25%
24%

13%
28%
31%
28%

14%
31%
24%
31%

16%
26%
35%
23%

20%
25%
28%
27%

10%
33%
31%
26%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(75)

(230)

(149)

(162)

(156)

(155)

100%
(310)

(0)

(0)

(310)

(5)

37