May 252010 Posts
May 252010 Posts
raise fears of new bottom NEW YORK (AP) -- Tax credits and historically
low mortgage rates have failed to lift home prices so far this year. Prices
fell 0.5 percent in March from February, according to the Standard &
Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday. The co-creator of the
Case-Shiller index, who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would
burst, is raising concerns that the worst may be ahead. That fear is shared
by other economists who point to weak job growth, tight credit and many
more foreclosures ahead …
Falling home prices stir fears of new bottom (AP) Europe faces an era of
government spending cuts (AP) Frank Affirms He Wants Strong
Derivatives Rules (at New York Times) Well, just as everyone thought he
lost his backbone, the alleged reason for the computerized buy programs
to kick in with a push of a button / mouse click evaporates (fraudulent wall
street’s method of intimidation). And consumer sentiment allegedly up only
proves the contrarian view that they’re always wrong as was the case in
last crash. As for retracement, the frauds on wall street got their
commissions on the way down, then again on the way up, and will get them
again on the way down. Reality, as follows:
Rosenberg says: ‘The downdraft in the market in recent weeks reflects the financial risk
related to the European debt crisis, the monetary tightening in China and the re-regulation
of the financial sector that is currently making its way through to Congress. The next leg
down in the equity market specifically and cyclical assets more generally is economic risk.
Equities went into this period of turbulence priced for peak earnings in 2011 and with a
tailwind of positive earnings revision and positive guidance ratios from the corporate
sector. If the ECRI and the Conference Board’s own index of leading economic indicators,
which dipped 0.1% in April, are prescient, then they are portending a period of sub-par
economic growth ahead (the ECRI is pointing to 1½% real GDP growth in the second half
of this year). As the events of 2002 showed, more-than-fully valued markets do not need a
double-dip scenario to falter — a growth relapse can easily do the trick. It’s still time to be
defensive and too early in this correction to be picking the bottom.’
No matter. We all know the conditions on the ground are not looking good. And David
Rosenberg has put out a list of ten reasons the leading indicators are rolling over to prove
it.
1. The ECR weekly leading index growth rate peaked on October 9, 2009 (at 28.54%;
now at 9.0%).
2. The Conference Board’s LEI peaked at 109.4 in March (109.3 in April).
3. ISM orders/inventory ratio peaked at 1.805 in August 2009 (1.33 in April).
4. University of Michigan consumer expectations peaked on September 2009 (at 73.5)
– now at 65.3 in May.
5. The UofM index of big-ticket consumer purchases peaked in February-March at
136; is down to 129 as of May.
6. Jobless claims bottomed at 442k on March 11. They had peaked at 651k on March
28, 2009. But they are back at 471k, which is where they were back on December
19, 2009 so the improvement has stalled out. Not only that, but to keep 472k into
perspective, claims were at 453k the week after 9/11 (and the economy back then
was eight months into recession). Yes, yes, employment has been rising of late;
however, keep in mind that nonfarm payrolls are in the index of coincident
indicators; claims are in the index of leading indicators. Please let’s not drive
looking through the rear window.
7. Single-family building permits peaked at 542k (annual rate) in March (were 484k in
April).
8. Mortgage purchase applications peaked on April 30th at 291.3 and now are at a 13-
year low of 192.1 even though mortgage rates have come down 20 basis points
since the nearby high.
9. Auto production peaked at 7.8 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in
January – was at 7.2 million in April.
10. Electrical utility output was down 0.1% YoY as of May 15th. Could be another early
sign that the production revival is behind us.
SO TO RECAP:
1. A depression was borne out of high levels of private sector debt, the
unsustainability of which became apparent after a financial crisis.
2. The effects of this depression have been lessened by economic stimulus and
government support.
4. In reality, the problems of high debt levels in the private sector and an
undercapitalized financial system are still lurking, waiting for the government to
withdraw its economic support to become realized
(5-25-10) Dow 10,043 -23 Nasdaq 2210 -3 S&P 500 1,074 -0- [CLOSE- OIL
$68.75 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85
(reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,195 [video] Gold Surges
Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $17.78 (+47% for
year 2009) PLATINUM $1,513 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 90
YEN, .69 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.16% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -
Domestic / International MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE
LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED
3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10
[archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market
that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week
Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING
MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11
Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons
Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover
Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for
2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This
Depression is just beginning The coming depression…
thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S
QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back
Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL /
TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won’t Recognize America By The End
Of The Year Business Insider | “Pul – leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don’t give a
damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!”
Titanics, Titanics everywhere but not a one will sink says they, as Spain
becomes new object of deck chair re-arrangement (the u.s. hasn’t
stopped their deck chair re-arrangement, but, after all, they are the
biggest Titanic).
Quite amazing! And you can’t make this stuff up. Too incompetent to fail
(added to too big to fail or jail)? The ‘no-recession-fed’ (technically
correct because this is a depression) expects recently as before last
crash jawboned with soothing but empty words, GDP to rise, jobless
rate to fall (with insurmountably unsustainable debt / service) … Well
take that to the insolvent bank, defacto bankrupt america. Who ever
could have said b*** s*** doesn’t talk. In fraudulent, defacto bankrupt
america b*** s*** talks and walks and gets re-appointed and re-vested
with new powers to fail and falsely lead again and again and again.
What parallel universe do they operate in? (Current forecasts from
Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones
Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was
the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400
at one or more times during the bear market.
Don't fear turmoil in the market Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! Or, maybe like
that old rock tune refrain, ‘Don’t Fear The Reaper’. While he says
astutely you should ‘buy cheap and sell dear’ and my MBA Thesis
concluded along the same line that ‘timing is everything in stock
market investing’ noting from the historical record that the foisted
myth of buy and hold, dollar-cost averaging unabated (examination
reveals even then, stocks remained higher, longer, skewing the
average cost far above the average / dollar-cost averaging down the
exception where forecast reasonably pointing to upturn in cycle), etc.,
almost invariably were money losers. However, that was then and now
is now; Mr. Sloan’s cavalier attitude toward market gyrations / losses,
though reminiscent of J.P. Morgan’s famous reply (I believe it
concerned a boat purchase) when he quipped ‘if you have to ask, you
can’t afford it’, is imprudent at best and bad advice at worst. [J.P.
Morgan had a few other aphorisms regarding investing as are
apposite in these fraudulent times; viz., he was ‘not so much
concerned with the return on the money as he was the return of the
money (principal), his investment strategy was to ‘put all his eggs in
one basket and then watch the basket carefully’, I’m sure there were
others. I’m also sure he’d be out of this market (that preserve the
principal thing), particularly with these new fangled ‘computer things’
mucking things up at commission generating lightning speed]. (He is
correct in advocating lower cost reputable funds as Vanguard, etc., if
used at all). In sum, what he seems to be recommending is that when
in the path of an on-coming train, it is best to gut it out and hope for
the best; or, to use an oft-used hackneyed wall street expression, to
try and ‘catch the falling knife’.
Max Keiser And Gerald Celente Deconstruct Financial Fraud Max Keiser at
his best, deconstructing the global ponzi with Gerald Celente, another very
much outspoken critic of the broken financial system.
From The Business Insider, May 24, 2010: Over the weekend, Jeff Collins at the O.C.
Register noted that the "Central Park West" complex in Irvine, California that was
mothballed by Lennar in 2007 is now back on the market. And from Amanda Fung at
Crain's New York: 'Shadow' condos dim sale outlook … This includes:
• Unlisted new high rise condos as discussed above. Note: these properties are not
included in the new home inventory report.
• Homeowners waiting for a better market. Some of the increase in inventory in April
might have been sellers hoping to take advantage of the tax credit. This includes
the accidental landlords who will try to sell as soon as the market improves and
the current tenant's lease expires.
• REOs, foreclosures in process and some percentage of seriously delinquent loans
(some will cure, some are already listed as short sales). See: Mortgage
Delinquencies by Period
• It is difficult to put a number on the total, but it is in the millions of units and all this
inventory will keep downward pressure on house prices for some time.
THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS DOWN by TIMOTHY COLLINS Last Thursday's low
just became important to me. I know we had the "whoosh" on Friday, but it was short-
lived. Also, the close on Thursday was tested before the phantom bull stampede late
Friday afternoon. I was looking for a test of $104.55 on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF last week,
and we came close on Friday, but didn't get it. The way we closed today, it felt like we were
setting up for that test. If that fails, then I will be shorting, looking for a cover around $95.
Transocean really fell off a cliff today. When I mentioned $55 and $50, I wasn't thinking
today or tomorrow, and $55 didn't give the stock much of a pause. If it wasn't clear before
today, it should be now: This is a falling knife…
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013,
especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep
downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the
Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top
research houses in Asia. Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500
will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at
almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime
around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has
done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott
Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the
Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that
would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions;
and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression”
(2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to
experience and advised how to position one’s self financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777
which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below
400 at one or more times during the bear market.
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
Obama Approval Falls to New Low: 42% Overall, 42% of voters say they at
least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. That is the
lowest level of approval yet measured for this president.
Former CIA Officials Admit To Faking Bin Laden Video Two former CIA
officials have admitted to creating a fake video in which intelligence
officers dressed up as Osama Bin Laden and his cronies in an effort
to defame the terrorist leader throughout the middle east. Obama
Sending 1,200 Troops to Mexico Border President Barack Obama will
deploy up to 1,200 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexican border
and request $500 million for enhanced border protection, an
administration official said on Tuesday. North Korea Severs Ties
With South on Ship Sinking North Korea said it will sever all ties with
South Korea and expel the South’s workers from a joint industrial
zone as “punishment” for accusing it of sinking a warship and killing
46 South Korean sailors. Nuclear War Between Koreas: Brought To
You By The U.S. Government Kim Jong-Il has put North Korean
troops on combat alert and threatened military action if the South
trespasses in its waters as global stock markets freak out at the
prospect of a war which, if it occurs, can be blamed on the U.S.
government’s history of arming the Stalinist dictator with nuclear
weapons.
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why? They
already have that and more:
Launch of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new
weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
"What this means is that Neanderthals are not totally extinct. In some of us,
they live on," Paabo … With regard to that extinction thing, I’d say
they’re still working on it (ultimately, decades, extinction, the
distinction, without a difference). Actually, prior to studying the
compelling subject of Biological Anthropology (Michael Park text), I
too had some misconceptions about the group known as Neandertals
(recent spelling drops the ‘h’) and actually mis-referenced same by the
stereotypical image of members of said clade even as the debate
continues as to whether they are within the species homo sapiens or a
separate species. I believe these to be distinctions without important
differences, so humble the origins and evolution of man truly are.
Parenthetically, I wonder what that anthropological scientist Heidi
Klum thinks on the subject.
Previously I wrote:
FOUND: MISSING LINK BETWEEN APES AND MAN.... These stories, and
the many like it, are old news and I subscribe to the more studied view
that there is no “missing link” per se and in my view are distinctions
without significant differences. I previously wrote:
To Learn More About From Whence Man Came, This Link's For You
Seeing Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen;
at best, decades.
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm