PPCM
PPCM
Go To Chapter 2
(Organizing for Project
Management)
The Owners' Perspective
Introduction
The Project Life Cycle
Major Types of Construction
Selection of Professional
Services
Construction Contractors
Financing of Constructed
Facilities
Legal and Regulatory
Requirements
The Changing Environment of
the Construction Industry
The Role of Project Managers
References
Footnotes
specialists can respond more effectively to the owner's desires for their services, in marketing
their specialties, and in improving the productivity and quality of their work.
The introduction of innovative and more effective project management for construction is not an
academic exercise. As reported by the "Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project" of the
Business Roundtable: [1]
By common consensus and every available measure, the United States no longer gets it's money's
worth in construction, the nation's largest industry ... The creeping erosion of construction
efficiency and productivity is bad news for the entire U.S. economy. Construction is a
particularly seminal industry. The price of every factory, office building, hotel or power plant
that is built affects the price that must be charged for the goods or services produced in it or by it.
And that effect generally persists for decades ... Too much of the industry remains tethered to the
past, partly by inertia and partly by historic divisions...
Improvement of project management not only can aid the construction industry, but may also be
the engine for the national and world economy. However, if we are to make meaningful
improvements, we must first understand the construction industry, its operating environment and
the institutional constraints affecting its activities as well as the nature of project management.
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defined, detailed engineering design will provide the blueprint for construction, and the
definitive cost estimate will serve as the baseline for cost control. In the procurement and
construction stage, the delivery of materials and the erection of the project on site must be
carefully planned and controlled. After the construction is completed, there is usually a brief
period of start-up or shake-down of the constructed facility when it is first occupied. Finally, the
management of the facility is turned over to the owner for full occupancy until the facility lives
out its useful life and is designated for demolition or conversion.
Of course, the stages of development in Figure 1-1 may not be strictly sequential. Some of the
stages require iteration, and others may be carried out in parallel or with overlapping time
frames, depending on the nature, size and urgency of the project. Furthermore, an owner may
have in-house capacities to handle the work in every stage of the entire process, or it may seek
professional advice and services for the work in all stages. Understandably, most owners choose
to handle some of the work in-house and to contract outside professional services for other
components of the work as needed. By examining the project life cycle from an owner's
perspective we can focus on the proper roles of various activities and participants in all stages
regardless of the contractual arrangements for different types of work.
In the United States, for example, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has in-house capabilities to
deal with planning, budgeting, design, construction and operation of waterway and flood control
structures. Other public agencies, such as state transportation departments, are also deeply
involved in all phases of a construction project. In the private sector, many large firms such as
DuPont, Exxon, and IBM are adequately staffed to carry out most activities for plant expansion.
All these owners, both public and private, use outside agents to a greater or lesser degree when it
becomes more advantageous to do so.
The project life cycle may be viewed as a process through which a project is implemented from
cradle to grave. This process is often very complex; however, it can be decomposed into several
stages as indicated by the general outline in Figure 1-1. The solutions at various stages are then
integrated to obtain the final outcome. Although each stage requires different expertise, it usually
includes both technical and managerial activities in the knowledge domain of the specialist. The
owner may choose to decompose the entire process into more or less stages based on the size and
nature of the project, and thus obtain the most efficient result in implementation. Very often, the
owner retains direct control of work in the planning and programming stages, but increasingly
outside planners and financial experts are used as consultants because of the complexities of
projects. Since operation and maintenance of a facility will go on long after the completion and
acceptance of a project, it is usually treated as a separate problem except in the consideration of
the life cycle cost of a facility. All stages from conceptual planning and feasibility studies to the
acceptance of a facility for occupancy may be broadly lumped together and referred to as the
Design/Construct process, while the procurement and construction alone are traditionally
regarded as the province of the construction industry.
Owners must recognize that there is no single best approach in organizing project management
throughout a project's life cycle. All organizational approaches have advantages and
disadvantages, depending on the knowledge of the owner in construction management as well as
the type, size and location of the project. It is important for the owner to be aware of the
approach which is most appropriate and beneficial for a particular project. In making choices,
owners should be concerned with the life cycle costs of constructed facilities rather than simply
the initial construction costs. Saving small amounts of money during construction may not be
worthwhile if the result is much larger operating costs or not meeting the functional requirements
for the new facility satisfactorily. Thus, owners must be very concerned with the quality of the
finished product as well as the cost of construction itself. Since facility operation and
maintenance is a part of the project life cycle, the owners' expectation to satisfy investment
objectives during the project life cycle will require consideration of the cost of operation and
maintenance. Therefore, the facility's operating management should also be considered as early
as possible, just as the construction process should be kept in mind at the early stages of planning
and programming.
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Figure 1-3: Construction of the PPG Building in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (courtesy of PPG
Industries, Inc.)
Figure 1-4: Construction of a Benzene Plant in Lima, Ohio (courtesy of Manitowoc Company,
Inc.)
Figure 1-5: Construction of the Dame Point Bridge in Jacksonville, Florida (courtesy of Mary
Lou Maher)
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In the past two decades, this traditional approach has become less popular for a number of
reasons, particularly for large scale projects. The A/E firms, which are engaged by the owner as
the prime professionals for design and inspection, have become more isolated from the
construction process. This has occurred because of pressures to reduce fees to A/E firms, the
threat of litigation regarding construction defects, and lack of knowledge of new construction
techniques on the part of architect and engineering professionals. Instead of preparing a
construction plan along with the design, many A/E firms are no longer responsible for the details
of construction nor do they provide periodic field inspection in many cases. As a matter of fact,
such firms will place a prominent disclaimer of responsibilities on any shop drawings they may
check, and they will often regard their representatives in the field as observers instead of
inspectors. Thus, the A/E firm and the general contractor on a project often become antagonists
who are looking after their own competing interests. As a result, even the constructibility of
some engineering designs may become an issue of contention. To carry this protective attitude to
the extreme, the specifications prepared by an A/E firm for the general contractor often protects
the interest of the A/E firm at the expense of the interests of the owner and the contractor.
In order to reduce the cost of construction, some owners introduce value engineering, which
seeks to reduce the cost of construction by soliciting a second design that might cost less than the
original design produced by the A/E firm. In practice, the second design is submitted by the
contractor after receiving a construction contract at a stipulated sum, and the saving in cost
resulting from the redesign is shared by the contractor and the owner. The contractor is able to
absorb the cost of redesign from the profit in construction or to reduce the construction cost as a
result of the re-design. If the owner had been willing to pay a higher fee to the A/E firm or to
better direct the design process, the A/E firm might have produced an improved design which
would cost less in the first place. Regardless of the merit of value engineering, this practice has
undermined the role of the A/E firm as the prime professional acting on behalf of the owner to
supervise the contractor.
Design/Construct Firms
A common trend in industrial construction, particularly for large projects, is to engage the
services of a design/construct firm. By integrating design and construction management in a
single organization, many of the conflicts between designers and constructors might be avoided.
In particular, designs will be closely scrutinized for their constructibility. However, an owner
engaging a design/construct firm must insure that the quality of the constructed facility is not
sacrificed by the desire to reduce the time or the cost for completing the project. Also, it is
difficult to make use of competitive bidding in this type of design/construct process. As a result,
owners must be relatively sophisticated in negotiating realistic and cost-effective construction
contracts.
One of the most obvious advantages of the integrated design/construct process is the use of
phased construction for a large project. In this process, the project is divided up into several
phases, each of which can be designed and constructed in a staggered manner. After the
completion of the design of the first phase, construction can begin without waiting for the
completion of the design of the second phase, etc. If proper coordination is exercised. the total
project duration can be greatly reduced. Another advantage is to exploit the possibility of using
the turnkey approach whereby an owner can delegate all responsibility to the design/construct
firm which will deliver to the owner a completed facility that meets the performance
specifications at the specified price.
Facilities Management
As a logical extension for obtaining the best services throughout the project life cycle of a
constructed facility, some owners and developers are receptive to adding strategic planning at the
beginning and facility maintenance as a follow-up to reduce space-related costs in their real
estate holdings. Consequently, some architectural/engineering firms and construction
management firms with computer-based expertise, together with interior design firms, are
offering such front-end and follow-up services in addition to the more traditional services in
General Contractors
The function of a general contractor is to coordinate all tasks in a construction project. Unless the
owner performs this function or engages a professional construction manager to do so, a good
general contractor who has worked with a team of superintendents, specialty contractors or
subcontractors together for a number of projects in the past can be most effective in inspiring
loyalty and cooperation. The general contractor is also knowledgeable about the labor force
employed in construction. The labor force may or may not be unionized depending on the size
and location of the projects. In some projects, no member of the work force belongs to a labor
union; in other cases, both union and non-union craftsmen work together in what is called an
open shop, or all craftsmen must be affiliated with labor unions in a closed shop. Since labor
unions provide hiring halls staffed with skilled journeyman who have gone through apprentice
programs for the projects as well as serving as collective bargain units, an experienced general
contractor will make good use of the benefits and avoid the pitfalls in dealing with organized
labor.
Specialty Contractors
Specialty contractors include mechanical, electrical, foundation, excavation, and demolition
contractors among others. They usually serve as subcontractors to the general contractor of a
project. In some cases, legal statutes may require an owner to deal with various specialty
contractors directly. In the State of New York, for example, specialty contractors, such as
mechanical and electrical contractors, are not subjected to the supervision of the general
contractor of a construction project and must be given separate prime contracts on public works.
With the exception of such special cases, an owner will hold the general contractor responsible
for negotiating and fulfilling the contractual agreements with the subcontractors.
Construction Financing
Construction loans to contractors are usually provided by banks or savings and loan associations
for construction financing. Upon the completion of the facility, construction loans will be
terminated and the post-construction facility financing will be arranged by the owner.
Construction loans provided for different types of construction vary. In the case of residential
housing, construction loans and long-term mortgages can be obtained from savings and loans
associations or commercial banks. For institutional and commercial buildings, construction loans
are usually obtained from commercial banks. Since the value of specialized industrial buildings
as collateral for loans is limited, construction loans in this domain are rare, and construction
financing can be done from the pool of general corporate funds. For infrastructure construction
owned by government, the property cannot be used as security for a private loan, but there are
many possible ways to finance the construction, such as general appropriation from taxation or
special bonds issued for the project.
Traditionally, banks serve as construction lenders in a three-party agreement among the
contractor, the owner and the bank. The stipulated loan will be paid to the contractor on an
agreed schedule upon the verification of completion of various portions of the project. Generally,
a payment request together with a standard progress report will be submitted each month by the
contractor to the owner which in turn submits a draw request to the bank. Provided that the work
to date has been performed satisfactorily, the disbursement is made on that basis during the
construction period. Under such circumstances, the bank has been primarily concerned with the
completion of the facility on time and within the budget. The economic life of the facility after
its completion is not a concern because of the transfer of risk to the owner or an institutional
lender.
Facility Financing
Many private corporations maintain a pool of general funds resulting from retained earnings and
long-term borrowing on the strength of corporate assets, which can be used for facility financing.
Similarly, for public agencies, the long-term funding may be obtained from the commitment of
general tax revenues from the federal, state and/or local governments. Both private corporations
and public agencies may issue special bonds for the constructed facilities which may obtain
lower interest rates than other forms of borrowing. Short-term borrowing may also be used for
bridging the gaps in long-term financing. Some corporate bonds are convertible to stocks under
circumstances specified in the bond agreement. For public facilities, the assessment of user fees
to repay the bond funds merits consideration for certain types of facilities such as toll roads and
sewage treatment plants. [3] The use of mortgages is primarily confined to rental properties such
as apartments and office buildings.
Because of the sudden surge of interest rates in the late 1970's, many financial institutions offer,
in addition to the traditional fixed rate long-term mortgage commitments, other arrangements
such as a combination of debt and a percentage of ownership in exchange for a long-term
mortgage or the use of adjustable rate mortgages. In some cases, the construction loan may be
granted on an open-ended basis without a long-term financing commitment. For example, the
plan might be issued for the construction period with an option to extend it for a period of up to
three years in order to give the owner more time to seek alternative long-term financing on the
completed facility. The bank will be drawn into situations involving financial risk if it chooses to
be a lender without long-term guarantees.
For international projects, the currency used for financing agreements becomes important. If
financial agreements are written in terms of local currencies, then fluctuations in the currency
exchange rate can significantly affect the cost and ultimately profit of a project. In some cases,
payments might also be made in particular commodities such as petroleum or the output from the
facility itself. Again, these arrangements result in greater uncertainty in the financing scheme
because the price of these commodities may vary.
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Legal Responsibilities
Activities in construction often involve risks, both physical and financial. An owner generally
tries to shift the risks to other parties to the degree possible when entering into contractual
agreements with them. However, such action is not without cost or risk. For example, a
contractor who is assigned the risks may either ask for a higher contract price to compensate for
the higher risks, or end up in non-performance or bankruptcy as an act of desperation. Such
consequences can be avoided if the owner is reasonable in risk allocation. When risks are
allocated to different parties, the owner must understand the implications and spell them out
clearly. Sometimes there are statutory limitations on the allocation of liabilities among various
groups, such as prohibition against the allocation of negligence in design to the contractor. An
owner must realize its superior power in bargaining and hence the responsibilities associated
with this power in making contractual agreements.
Mitigation of Conflicts
It is important for the owner to use legal counselors as advisors to mitigate conflicts before they
happen rather than to wield conflicts as weapons against other parties. There are enough
problems in design and construction due to uncertainty rather than bad intentions. The owner
should recognize the more enlightened approaches for mitigating conflicts, such as using ownercontrolled wrap-up insurance which will provide protection for all parties involved in the
construction process for unforeseen risks, or using arbitration, mediation and other extra-judicial
solutions for disputes among various parties. However, these compromise solutions are not
without pitfalls and should be adopted only on the merit of individual cases.
Government Regulation
To protect public safety and welfare, legislatures and various government agencies periodically
issue regulations which influence the construction process, the operation of constructed facilities,
and their ultimate disposal. For example, building codes promulgated by local authorities have
provided guidelines for design and construction practices for a very long time. Since the 1970's,
many federal regulations that are related directly or indirectly to construction have been
established in the United States. Among them are safety standards for workers issued by the
Occupational Health and Safety Administration, environmental standards on pollutants and toxic
wastes issued by the Environmental Protection Agency, and design and operation procedures for
nuclear power plants issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Owners must be aware of the impacts of these regulations on the costs and durations of various
types of construction projects as well as possibilities of litigation due to various contentions. For
example, owners acquiring sites for new construction may be strictly liable for any hazardous
wastes already on the site or removed from the site under the U.S. Comprehensive
Environmental Response Compensation and Liability (CERCL) Act of 1980. For large scale
projects involving new technologies, the construction costs often escalate with the uncertainty
associated with such restrictions.
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Figure 1-7: Construction as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product in the United States, 19751995
Owners who pay close attention to the peculiar characteristics of the construction industry and its
changing operating environment will be able to take advantage of the favorable conditions and to
avoid the pitfalls. Several factors are particularly noteworthy because of their significant impacts
on the quality, cost and time of construction.
New Technologies
In recent years, technological innovation in design, materials and construction methods have
resulted in significant changes in construction costs. Computer-aids have improved capabilities
for generating quality designs as well as reducing the time required to produce alternative
designs. New materials not only have enhanced the quality of construction but also have
shortened the time for shop fabrication and field erection. Construction methods have gone
through various stages of mechanization and automation, including the latest development of
construction robotics.
The most dramatic new technology applied to construction has been the Internet and its private,
corporate Intranet versions. The Internet is widely used as a means to foster collaboration among
professionals on a project, to communicate for bids and results, and to procure necessary goods
and services. Real time video from specific construction sites is widely used to illustrate
construction progress to interested parties. The result has been more effective collaboration,
communication and procurement.
The effects of many new technologies on construction costs have been mixed because of the high
development costs for new technologies. However, it is unmistakable that design professionals
and construction contractors who have not adapted to changing technologies have been forced
out of the mainstream of design and construction activities. Ultimately, construction quality and
cost can be improved with the adoption of new technologies which are proved to be efficient
from both the viewpoints of performance and economy.
Labor Productivity
The term productivity is generally defined as a ratio of the production output volume to the input
volume of resources. Since both output and input can be quantified in a number of ways, there is
no single measure of productivity that is universally applicable, particularly in the construction
industry where the products are often unique and there is no standard for specifying the levels for
aggregation of data. However, since labor constitutes a large part of the cost of construction,
labor productivity in terms of output volume (constant dollar value or functional units) per
person-hour is a useful measure. Labor productivity measured in this way does not necessarily
indicate the efficiency of labor alone but rather measures the combined effects of labor,
equipment and other factors contributing to the output.
While aggregate construction industry productivity is important as a measure of national
economy, owners are more concerned about the labor productivity of basic units of work
produced by various crafts on site. Thus, an owner can compare the labor performance at
different geographic locations, under different working conditions, and for different types and
sizes of projects.
Construction costs usually run parallel to material prices and labor wages. Actually, over the
years, labor productivity has increased in some traditional types of construction and thus
provides a leveling or compensating effect when hourly rates for labor increase faster than other
costs in construction. However, labor productivity has been stagnant or even declined in
unconventional or large scale projects.
Public Scrutiny
Under the present litigious climate in the United States, the public is increasingly vocal in the
scrutiny of construction project activities. Sometimes it may result in considerable difficulty in
siting new facilities as well as additional expenses during the construction process itself. Owners
must be prepared to manage such crises before they get out of control.
Figure 1-8 can serve to indicate public attitudes towards the siting of new facilities. It represents
the cumulative percentage of individuals who would be willing to accept a new industrial facility
at various distances from their homes. For example, over fifty percent of the people surveyed
would accept a ten-story office building within five miles of their home, but only twenty-five
percent would accept a large factory or coal fired power plant at a similar distance. An even
lower percentage would accept a hazardous waste disposal site or a nuclear power plant. Even at
a distance of one hundred miles, a significant fraction of the public would be unwilling to accept
hazardous waste facilities or nuclear power plants.
Figure 1-8: Public Acceptance Towards New Facilities (Reprinted from Environmental Quality
- 1980,
the Eleventh Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, DC, December 1980.)
International Competition
A final trend which deserves note is the increasing level of international competition in the
construction industry. Owners are likely to find non-traditional firms bidding for construction
work, particularly on large projects. Separate bids from numerous European, North American,
and Asian construction firms are not unusual. In the United States, overseas firms are becoming
increasingly visible and important. In this environment of heightened competition, good project
management and improved productivity are more and more important.
A bidding competition for a major new offshore drilling platform illustrates the competitive
environment in construction. As described in the Wall Street Journal: [5]
Through most of the postwar years, the nation's biggest builders of offshore oil platforms
enjoyed an unusually cozy relationship with the Big Oil Companies they served. Their top
officials developed personal friendships with oil executives, entertained them at opulent hunting
camps- and won contracts to build nearly every major offshore oil platform in the world....But
this summer, the good-old boy network fell apart. Shell [Oil Co.] awarded the main contract for
[a new] platform - taller than Chicago's Sears Tower, four times heavier than the Brooklyn
Bridge - to a tiny upstart.
The winning bidder arranged overseas fabrication of the rig, kept overhead costs low, and
proposed a novel assembly procedure by which construction equipment was mounted on
completed sections of the platform in order to speed the completion of the entire structure. The
result was lower costs than those estimated and bid by traditional firms.
Of course, U.S. firms including A/E firms, contractors and construction managers are also
competing in foreign countries. Their success or failure in the international arena may also affect
their capacities and vitality to provide services in the domestic U.S. market.
backed financing. Thus, the contractors or joint ventures in overseas projects are forced into very
risky positions if they intend to stay in the competition.
Lean Construction
"Lean manufacturing" had a revolutionary effect on many industries, especially automotive
assembly companies. Characteristics of this approach include:
Improvement in quality and reduction of waste everywhere. Rather than increasing costs,
reducing defects and waste proved to improve quality and reduce costs.
Empowering workers to be responsible for satisfying customer needs. In construction, for
example, craftsman should make sure their work satisfied the design intent.
Continuous improvement of processes involving the entire workforce.
Lean construction is intended to spread these practices within the construction industry. Of
course, well managed construction projects already have many aspects of lean construction. For
example, just-in-time delivery of materials is commonplace to avoid the waste of large inventory
stockpiles. Green building projects attempt to re-use or recycle all construction wastes. But the
systematic attention to continuous improvement and zero accidents and defects is new. Back to
top
As engineers advance professionally, they often spend as much or more time on planning,
management and other economic or social problems as on the traditional engineering design and
analysis problems which form the core of most educational programs. It is upon the ability of
engineers to tackle all such problems that their performance will ultimately be judged.
The greatest stumbling block to effective management in construction is the inertia and historic
divisions among planners, designers and constructors. While technical competence in design and
innovation remains the foundation of engineering practice, the social, economic and
organizational factors that are pervasive in influencing the success and failure of construction
projects must also be dealt with effectively by design and construction organizations. Of course,
engineers are not expected to know every detail of management techniques, but they must be
knowledgeable enough to anticipate the problems of management so that they can work
harmoniously with professionals in related fields to overcome the inertia and historic divisions.
Paradoxically, engineers who are creative in engineering design are often innovative in planning
and management since both types of activities involve problem solving. In fact, they can
reinforce each other if both are included in the education process, provided that creativity and
innovation instead of routine practice are emphasized. A project manager who is well educated in
the fundamental principles of engineering design and management can usefully apply such
principles once he or she has acquired basic understanding of a new application area. A project
manager who has been trained by rote learning for a specific type of project may merely gain one
year of experience repeated twenty times even if he or she has been in the field for twenty years.
A broadly educated project manager can reasonably hope to become a leader in the profession; a
narrowly trained project manager is often relegated to the role of his or her first job level
permanently.
The owners have much at stake in selecting a competent project manager and in providing her or
him with the authority to assume responsibility at various stages of the project regardless of the
types of contractual agreements for implementing the project. Of course, the project manager
must also possess the leadership quality and the ability to handle effectively intricate
interpersonal relationships within an organization. The ultimate test of the education and
experience of a project manager for construction lies in her or his ability to apply fundamental
principles to solving problems in the new and unfamiliar situations which have become the
hallmarks of the changing environment in the construction industry.
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1.10 References
1. Au, T. and C. Hendrickson, "Education in Engineering Planning and Management,"
Proceedings of the ASCE Conference on Civil Engineering Education, Columbus, Ohio,
1985.
2. Barrie, D.S. (editor), Directions in Managing Construction, John Wiley and Sons, New
York, 1981.
3. Lean Construction Institute, http://www.leanconstruction.org/
4. Bonny, J.B. and J.P. Frein, Handbook of Construction Management and Organization,
2nd Edition, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., New York, 1980.
5. Hasagawa, Fumio et.al., "Built by Japan," John Wiley & Sons, 1988.
6. Lang, J.E. and D.Q. Mills, The Construction Industry, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA,
1979.
7. Walker, N., E.N. Walker and T.K. Rohdenburg, Legal Pitfalls in Architecture,
Engineering and Building Construction, 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York,
1979.
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1.11 Footnotes
1. The Business Roundtable, More Construction for the Money, Summary Report of the
Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project, January 1983, p. 11. Back
2. "Hot New Market Lures A-E Players to Cutting Edges," Engineering News-Record, April
4, 1985, pp. 30-37. Back
3. See Hendrickson, C., "Financing Civil Works with User Fees," Civil Engineering, Vol.
53, No. 2, February 1983, pp. 71-72. Back
4. The graph is derived from data in "Value of New Construction Put in Place, 1960-1983",
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 105th Edition, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Census, 1985, pp. 722-723, as well as the information in earlier editions. Back
5. See Petzinger, Thomas Jr., "Upstart's Winning Bid for Offshore Platform Stuns its Older
Rivals," Wall Street Journal, p. 1, c. 6, Nov. 20, 1985. Back
6. See H. Cross, Engineers and Ivory Towers, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York,
1952. Back
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interpersonal behavior which focuses on the individual and his/her motivations as a sociopsychological being; others emphasize more group behavior in recognition of the organized
enterprise as a social organism, subject to all the attitudes, habits, pressures and conflicts of the
cultural environment of people. The major contributions made by the behavioral scientists to the
field of management include: (1) the formulation of concepts and explanations about individual
and group behavior in the organization, (2) the empirical testing of these concepts methodically
in many different experimental and field settings, and (3) the establishment of actual managerial
policies and decisions for operation based on the conceptual and methodical frameworks.
Sustainable competitive advantage stems primarily from good management strategy. As Michael
Porter of the Harvard Business School argues:
Strategy is creating fit among a company's activities. The success of a strategy depends on doing
many things well - not just a few - and integrating among them. If there is no fit among activites,
there is no distinctive strategy and little sustainability.
In this view, successful firms must improve and align the many processes underway to their
strategic vision. Strategic positioning in this fashion requires:
Creating a unique and valuable position.
Making trade-offs compared to competitors
Project managers should be aware of the strategic position of their own organization and the
other organizations involved in the project. The project manager faces the difficult task of trying
to align the goals and strategies of these various organizations to accomplish the project goals.
For example, the owner of an industrial project may define a strategic goal as being first to
market with new products. In this case, facilities development must be oriented to fast-track,
rapid construction. As another example, a contracting firm may see their strategic advantage in
new technologies and emphasize profit opportunities from value engineering (as described in
Chapter 3).
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In order to gain time, some owners are willing to forego thorough planning and feasibility study
so as to proceed on a project with inadequate definition of the project scope. Invariably,
subsequent changes in project scope will increase construction costs; however, profits derived
from earlier facility operation often justify the increase in construction costs. Generally, if the
owner can derive reasonable profits from the operation of a completed facility, the project is
considered a success even if construction costs far exceed the estimate based on an inadequate
scope definition. This attitude may be attributed in large part to the uncertainties inherent in
construction projects. It is difficult to argue that profits might be even higher if construction costs
could be reduced without increasing the project duration. However, some projects, notably some
nuclear power plants, are clearly unsuccessful and abandoned before completion, and their
demise must be attributed at least in part to inadequate planning and poor feasibility studies.
The owner or facility sponsor holds the key to influence the construction costs of a project
because any decision made at the beginning stage of a project life cycle has far greater influence
than those made at later stages, as shown schematically in Figure 2-3. Moreover, the design and
construction decisions will influence the continuing operating costs and, in many cases, the
revenues over the facility lifetime. Therefore, an owner should obtain the expertise of
professionals to provide adequate planning and feasibility studies. Many owners do not maintain
an in-house engineering and construction management capability, and they should consider the
establishment of an ongoing relationship with outside consultants in order to respond quickly to
requests. Even among those owners who maintain engineering and construction divisions, many
treat these divisions as reimbursable, independent organizations. Such an arrangement should not
discourage their legitimate use as false economies in reimbursable costs from such divisions can
indeed be very costly to the overall organization.
center as soon as possible, even at the sacrifice of cost saving measures. When the plans and
specifications for the northwest shopping center were ready, the owner immediately authorized
its construction. However, it took another three years before the southeast shopping center was
finally built.
The reason behind the change of plan was that the owner discovered the availability of the farm
land in the northwest which could be developed into residential real estate properties for upper
middle income families. The immediate construction of the northwest shopping center would
make the land development parcels more attractive to home buyers. Thus, the owner was able to
recoup enough cash flow in three years to construct the southeast shopping center in addition to
financing the construction of the northeast shopping center, as well as the land development in its
vicinity.
While the owner did not want the construction cost of the northwest shopping center to run wild,
it apparently was satisfied with the cost estimate based on the detailed plans of the southeast
shopping center. Thus, the owner had a general idea of what the construction cost of the
northwest shopping center would be, and did not wish to wait for a more refined cost estimate
until the detailed plans for that center were ready. To the owner, the timeliness of completing the
construction of the northwest shopping center was far more important than reducing the
construction cost in fulfilling its investment objectives.
Example 2-2: Resource Constraints for Mega Projects
A major problem with mega projects is the severe strain placed on the environment, particularly
on the resources in the immediate area of a construction project. "Mega" or "macro" projects
involve construction of very large facilities such as the Alaska pipeline constructed in the 1970's
or the Panama Canal constructed in the 1900's. The limitations in some or all of the basic
elements required for the successful completion of a mega project include:
the ability of the local infrastructure to support the large number of workers over
an extended period of time, including housing, transportation and other services.
To compound the problem, mega projects are often constructed in remote environments away
from major population centers and subject to severe climate conditions. Consequently, special
features of each mega project must be evaluated carefully.
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Economic instability
2. Organizational relationships
o
Contractual relations
Attitudes of participants
Communication
3. Technological problems
o
Design assumptions
Site conditions
Construction procedures
The environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction
because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain
approval from the regulatory agencies. The requirements of continued re-evaluation of problems
and the lack of definitive criteria which are practical have also resulted in added costs. Public
safety regulations have similar effects, which have been most noticeable in the energy field
involving nuclear power plants and coal mining. The situation has created constantly shifting
guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners as projects move through the stages of
planning to construction. These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty
which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost.
Economic conditions of the past decade have further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with
high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated
unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction.
Uncertainty stemming from regulatory agencies, environmental issues and financial aspects of
construction should be at least mitigated or ideally eliminated. Owners are keenly interested in
achieving some form of breakthrough that will lower the costs of projects and mitigate or
eliminate lengthy delays. Such breakthroughs are seldom planned. Generally, they happen when
the right conditions exist, such as when innovation is permitted or when a basis for incentive or
reward exists. However, there is a long way to go before a true partnership of all parties involved
can be forged.
During periods of economic expansion, major capital expenditures are made by industries and
bid up the cost of construction. In order to control costs, some owners attempt to use fixed price
contracts so that the risks of unforeseen contingencies related to an overheated economy are
passed on to contractors. However, contractors will raise their prices to compensate for the
additional risks.
The risks related to organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real.
Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the
design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities
rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.
Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of
impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the ill-conceived notion that
uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract
terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities.
The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which
have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new
technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has
become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the
professions well in the past may become obsolete in dealing with new types of facilities which
may have greater complexity or scale or both. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions
which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of
uncertainty for facilities with heretofore unknown characteristics during operation. Because
construction procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified
after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty
is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for
undertaking such projects.
If each of the problems cited above can cause uncertainty, the combination of such problems is
often regarded by all parties as being out of control and inherently risky. Thus, the issue of
liability has taken on major proportions and has influenced the practices of engineers and
constructors, who in turn have influenced the actions of the owners.
Many owners have begun to understand the problems of risks and are seeking to address some of
these problems. For example, some owners are turning to those organizations that offer complete
capabilities in planning, design, and construction, and tend to avoid breaking the project into
major components to be undertaken individually by specialty participants. Proper coordination
throughout the project duration and good organizational communication can avoid delays and
costs resulting from fragmentation of services, even though the components from various
services are eventually integrated.
Attitudes of cooperation can be readily applied to the private sector, but only in special
circumstances can they be applied to the public sector. The ability to deal with complex issues is
often precluded in the competitive bidding which is usually required in the public sector. The
situation becomes more difficult with the proliferation of regulatory requirements and resulting
delays in design and construction while awaiting approvals from government officials who do
not participate in the risks of the project.
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Sequential processing whereby the project is divided into separate stages and each stage
is carried out successively in sequence.
Parallel processing whereby the project is divided into independent parts such that all
stages are carried out simultaneously.
Staggered processing whereby the stages may be overlapping, such as the use of phased
design-construct procedures for fast track operation.
It should be pointed out that some decompositions may work out better than others, depending
on the circumstances. In any case, the prevalence of decomposition makes the subsequent
integration particularly important. The critical issues involved in organization for project
management are:
There are two basic approaches to organize for project implementation, even though many
variations may exist as a result of different contractual relationships adopted by the owner and
builder. These basic approaches are divided along the following lines:
1. Separation of organizations. Numerous organizations serve as consultants or
contractors to the owner, with different organizations handling design and construction
functions. Typical examples which involve different degrees of separation are:
o Traditional sequence of design and construction
o
The owner usually negotiates the fee for service with the architectural/engineering (A/E) firm. In
addition to the responsibilities of designing the facility, the A/E firm also exercises to some
degree supervision of the construction as stipulated by the owner. Traditionally, the A/E firm
regards itself as design professionals representing the owner who should not communicate with
potential contractors to avoid collusion or conflict of interest. Field inspectors working for an
A/E firm usually follow through the implementation of a project after the design is completed
and seldom have extensive input in the design itself. Because of the litigation climate in the last
two decades, most A/E firms only provide observers rather than inspectors in the field. Even the
shop drawings of fabrication or construction schemes submitted by the contractors for approval
are reviewed with a disclaimer of responsibility by the A/E firms.
The owner may select a general constructor either through competitive bidding or through
negotiation. Public agencies are required to use the competitive bidding mode, while private
organizations may choose either mode of operation. In using competitive bidding, the owner is
forced to use the designer-constructor sequence since detailed plans and specifications must be
ready before inviting bidders to submit their bids. If the owner chooses to use a negotiated
contract, it is free to use phased construction if it so desires.
The general contractor may choose to perform all or part of the construction work, or act only as
a manager by subcontracting all the construction to subcontractors. The general contractor may
also select the subcontractors through competitive bidding or negotiated contracts. The general
contractor may ask a number of subcontractors to quote prices for the subcontracts before
submitting its bid to the owner. However, the subcontractors often cannot force the winning
general contractor to use them on the project. This situation may lead to practices known as bid
shopping and bid peddling. Bid shopping refers to the situation when the general contractor
approaches subcontractors other than those whose quoted prices were used in the winning
contract in order to seek lower priced subcontracts. Bid peddling refers to the actions of
subcontractors who offer lower priced subcontracts to the winning general subcontractors in
order to dislodge the subcontractors who originally quoted prices to the general contractor prior
to its bid submittal. In both cases, the quality of construction may be sacrificed, and some state
statutes forbid these practices for public projects.
Although the designer-constructor sequence is still widely used because of the public perception
of fairness in competitive bidding, many private owners recognize the disadvantages of using
this approach when the project is large and complex and when market pressures require a shorter
project duration than that which can be accomplished by using this traditional method.
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Work with owner and the A/E firms from the beginning and make recommendations on
design improvements, construction technology, schedules and construction economy.
Propose design and construction alternatives if appropriate, and analyze the effects of the
alternatives on the project cost and schedule.
Monitor subsequent development of the project in order that these targets are not
exceeded without the knowledge of the owner.
Coordinate procurement of material and equipment and the work of all construction
contractors, and monthly payments to contractors, changes, claims and inspection for
conforming design requirements.
Professional construction management is usually used when a project is very large or complex.
The organizational features that are characteristics of mega-projects can be summarized as
follows:[6]
The overall organizational approach for the project will change as the project advances.
The "functional" organization may change to a "matrix" which may change to a "project"
organization (not necessarily in this order).
Within the overall organization, there will probably be functional, project, and matrix
suborganizations all at the same time. This feature greatly complicates the theory and the
practice of management, yet is essential for overall cost effectiveness.
construction, even though it retains centralized decision making to integrate all efforts in project
implementation.
Example 2-7: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Organization
The District Engineer's Office of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers may be viewed as a typical
example of an owner-builder approach as shown in Figure 2-8.
Some owners wish to delegate all responsibilities of design and construction to outside
consultants in a turnkey project arrangement. A contractor agrees to provide the completed
facility on the basis of performance specifications set forth by the owner. The contractor may
even assume the responsibility of operating the project if the owner so desires. In order for a
turnkey operation to succeed, the owner must be able to provide a set of unambiguous
performance specifications to the contractor and must have complete confidence in the capability
of the contractor to carry out the mission.
This approach is the direct opposite of the owner-builder approach in which the owner wishes to
retain the maximum amount of control for the design-construction process.
Example 2-8: An Example of a Turnkey Organization
A 150-Mw power plant was proposed in 1985 by the Texas-New Mexico Power Company of
Fort Worth, Texas, which would make use of the turnkey operation. [7] Upon approval by the
Texas Utility Commission, a consortium consisting of H.B. Zachry Co., Westinghouse Electric
Co., and Combustion Engineering, Inc. would design, build and finance the power plant for
completion in 1990 for an estimated construction cost of $200 million in 1990 dollars. The
consortium would assume total liability during construction, including debt service costs, and
thereby eliminate the risks of cost escalation to rate payers, stockholders and the utility company
management.
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Formal authority resulting from an official capacity which is empowered to issue orders.
Reward and/or penalty power resulting from his/her capacity to dispense directly or
indirectly valued organization rewards or penalties.
Expert power when the project manager is perceived as possessing special knowledge or
expertise for the job.
Attractive power because the project manager has a personality or other characteristics to
convince others.
The interface between the project manager and the functional division managers should
be kept as simple as possible.
The project manager must gain control over those elements of the project which may
overlap with functional division managers.
The project manager should encourage problem solving rather than role playing of team
members drawn from various functional divisions.
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withdraw from active interactions about differences that need to be dealt with. They may attempt
to criticize and blame other individuals or groups when things go wrong. They may resent
suggestions for improvement, and become defensive to minimize culpability rather than take the
initiative to maximize achievements. All these actions are detrimental to the project organization.
While these symptoms can occur to individuals at any organization, they are compounded if the
project team consists of individuals who are put together from different organizations. Invariably,
different organizations have different cultures or modes of operation. Individuals from different
groups may not have a common loyalty and may prefer to expand their energy in the directions
most advantageous to themselves instead of the project team. Therefore, no one should take it for
granted that a project team will work together harmoniously just because its members are placed
physically together in one location. On the contrary, it must be assumed that good
communication can be achieved only through the deliberate effort of the top management of each
organization contributing to the joint venture.
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engineering managers concerned with the total project, not just the engineering elements.
ill-defined scope
poor management
poor planning
The responses of eight owners indicated that they did not always understand the concerns of the
contractors although they generally agreed with some of the key factors for successful and
unsuccessful projects cited by the contractors. The significant findings of the interviews with
owners are summarized as follows:
All owners have the same perception of their own role, but they differ significantly in
assuming that role in practice.
The owners also differ dramatically in the amount of early planning and in providing
information in bid packages.
There is a trend toward breaking a project into several smaller projects as the projects
become larger and more complex.
Most owners recognize the importance of schedule, but they adopt different requirements
in controlling the schedule.
From the results of these interviews, it is obvious that owners must be more aware and involved
in the process in order to generate favorable conditions for successful projects. Design
professionals and construction contractors must provide better communication with each other
and with the owner in project implementation.
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2.13 References
1. Barrie, Donald S. and Boyd C. Paulson, Jr., Professional Construction Management,
McGraw-Hill Book Company, 2nd Ed., 1984.
2. Halpin, Daniel W. and Ronald W. Woodhead, Construction Management, John Wiley and
Sons, 1980.
3. Hodgetts, R.M., Management: Theory, Process and Practice, W.B. Saunders Co.,
Philadelphia, PA, 1979.
4. Kerzner, H. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and
Controlling. 2nd. Ed., Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1984.
5. Levitt, R.E., R.D. Logcher and N.H. Quaddumi, "Impact of Owner-Engineer Risk
Sharing on Design Conservatism," ASCE Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering,
Vol. 110, 1984, pp. 157-167.
6. Moolin, F.P., Jr., and F.A. McCoy: "Managing the Alaska Pipeline Project," Civil
Engineering, November 1981, pp. 51-54.
7. Murray, L., E. Gallardo, S. Aggarwal and R. Waywitka, "Marketing Construction
Management Services," ASCE Journal of Construction Division, Vol. 107, 1981, pp. 665677.
8. Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge,
Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, 2000.
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2.14 Footnotes
1. See R. M. Wideman, "The PMBOK Report -- PMI Body of Knowledge Standard,"
Project Management Journal, Vol. 17, No. 3, August l986, pp. l5-24. Back
2. See L. C. Stuckenbruck, "Project Management Framework," Project Management
Journal, Vol. 17, No. 3, August 1986, pp. 25-30. Back
3. See, for example, O'Connor, J.T., and Vickory, C.G., Control of Construction Project
Scope, A Report to the Construction Industry Institute, The University of Texas at Austin,
December 1985. Back
4. See, for example, Federal Form 23-A and EPA's Appendix C-2 clauses. Back
5. See E. D'Appolonia, "Coping with Uncertainty in Geotechnical Engineering and
Construction," Special Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Soil
Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, Tokyo, Japan, Vol. 4, 1979, pp. 1-18. Back
6. These features and the following example are described in F.P. Moolin, Jr. and F.A.
McCoy, "Managing the Alaska Pipeline Project," Civil Engineering, November 1981, pp.
51-54. Back
7. "Private Money Finances Texas Utility's Power Plant" Engineering News Record: July
25, 1985, p. 13. Back
8. See J.E. Diekmann and K.B. Thrush, Project Control in Design Engineering, A Report to
the Construction Industry Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas, May 1986.
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4
Chapter 2
(Labor,
(Organizin
Material,
g For
And
Project
Equipme
Managem
nt
ent)
Utilizatio
n.)
The Design and
Construction
Process
Design and
Construction as an
Integrated System
Innovation and
Technological
Feasibility
Innovation and
Economic
Feasibility
Design
Methodology
Functional
Design
Physical
Structures
Geotechnical
Engineering
Investigation
Construction Site
Environment
Value
Engineering
Construction
Planning
Industrialized
Construction and
Pre-fabrication
Computer-Aided
Engineering
Pre-Project
Planning
References
Footnotes
Nearly every facility is custom designed and constructed, and often requires
a long time to complete.
Both the design and construction of a facility must satisfy the conditions
peculiar to a specific site.
In an integrated system, the planning for both design and construction can proceed almost
simultaneously, examining various alternatives which are desirable from both viewpoints and
thus eliminating the necessity of extensive revisions under the guise of value engineering.
Furthermore, the review of designs with regard to their constructibility can be carried out as the
project progresses from planning to design. For example, if the sequence of assembly of a
structure and the critical loadings on the partially assembled structure during construction are
carefully considered as a part of the overall structural design, the impacts of the design on
construction falsework and on assembly details can be anticipated. However, if the design
professionals are expected to assume such responsibilities, they must be rewarded for sharing the
risks as well as for undertaking these additional tasks. Similarly, when construction contractors
are expected to take over the responsibilities of engineers, such as devising a very elaborate
scheme to erect an unconventional structure, they too must be rewarded accordingly. As long as
the owner does not assume the responsibility for resolving this risk-reward dilemma, the concept
of a truly integrated system for design and construction cannot be realized.
It is interesting to note that European owners are generally more open to new technologies and to
share risks with designers and contractors. In particular, they are more willing to accept
responsibilities for the unforeseen subsurface conditions in geotechnical engineering.
Consequently, the designers and contractors are also more willing to introduce new techniques in
order to reduce the time and cost of construction. In European practice, owners typically present
contractors with a conceptual design, and contractors prepare detailed designs, which are
checked by the owner's engineers. Those detailed designs may be alternate designs, and specialty
contractors may also prepare detailed alternate designs.
scheduling, in order to allow the design professionals and construction contractors to perform
satisfactorily.
Table 3-1 Recommended Responsibility for Shop Drawings
Responsible Party
Task
Design
Own
Construction
Profession
er
Contractor
al
Prime
Prime
Prime
Prime
Prime
Prime
Prime
Revie
w
Prime
Prime
Assisting
Assisting
Prime
Prime
Prime
The great pioneering steel bridges of the United States were built by an open or covert alliance
between designers and constructors. The turnkey approach of designer-constructor has developed
and built our chemical plants, refineries, steel plants, and nuclear power plants. It is time to ask,
seriously, whether we may not have adopted a restrictive approach by divorcing engineering and
construction in the field of bridge construction.
If a contractor-engineer, by some stroke of genius, were to present to design engineers today a
wonderful new scheme for long span prestressed concrete bridges that made them far cheaper, he
would have to make these ideas available to all other constructors, even limiting or watering
them down so as to "get a group of truly competitive bidders." The engineer would have to make
sure that he found other contractors to bid against the ingenious innovator.
If an engineer should, by a similar stroke of genius, hit on such a unique and brilliant scheme, he
would have to worry, wondering if the low bidder would be one who had any concept of what he
was trying to accomplish or was in any way qualified for high class technical work.
Innovative design concepts must be tested for technological feasibility. Three levels of
technology are of special concern: technological requirements for operation or production,
design resources and construction technology. The first refers to the new technologies that may
be introduced in a facility which is used for a certain type of production such as chemical
processing or nuclear power generation. The second refers to the design capabilities that are
available to the designers, such as new computational methods or new materials. The third refers
to new technologies which can be adopted to construct the facility, such as new equipment or
new construction methods.
A new facility may involve complex new technology for operation in hostile environments such
as severe climate or restricted accessibility. Large projects with unprecedented demands for
resources such as labor supply, material and infrastructure may also call for careful technological
feasibility studies. Major elements in a feasibility study on production technology should
include, but are not limited to, the following:
An example of innovative design for operation and production is the use of entropy concepts for
the design of integrated chemical processes. Simple calculations can be used to indicate the
minimum energy requirements and the least number of heat exchange units to achieve desired
objectives. The result is a new incentive and criterion for designers to achieve more effective
designs. Numerous applications of the new methodology has shown its efficacy in reducing both
energy costs and construction expenditures. [4] This is a case in which innovative design is not a
matter of trading-off operating and capital costs, but better designs can simultaneously achieve
improvements in both objectives.
The choice of construction technology and method involves both strategic and tactical decisions
about appropriate technologies and the best sequencing of operations. For example, the extent to
which prefabricated facility components will be used represents a strategic construction decision.
In turn, prefabrication of components might be accomplished off-site in existing manufacturing
facilities or a temporary, on-site fabrication plant might be used. Another example of a strategic
decision is whether to install mechanical equipment in place early in the construction process or
at an intermediate stage. Strategic decisions of this sort should be integrated with the process of
facility design in many cases. At the tactical level, detailed decisions about how to accomplish
particular tasks are required, and such decisions can often be made in the field.
Construction planning should be a major concern in the development of facility designs, in the
preparation of cost estimates, and in forming bids by contractors. Unfortunately, planning for the
construction of a facility is often treated as an after thought by design professionals. This
contrasts with manufacturing practices in which the assembly of devices is a major concern in
design. Design to insure ease of assembly or construction should be a major concern of engineers
and architects. As the Business Roundtable noted, "All too often chances to cut schedule time
and costs are lost because construction operates as a production process separated by a chasm
from financial planning, scheduling, and engineering or architectural design. Too many
engineers, separated from field experience, are not up to date about how to build what they
design, or how to design so structures and equipment can be erected most efficiently." [5]
rate of change of the average cost slope is increasing as beyond H to the right, the region is said
to be decreasing return to scale. Thus, if fewer than h units are constructed, the unit price will be
higher than that of exactly h units. On the other hand, the unit price will increase again if more
than h units are constructed.
designs. The potential costs of a failure or even a moderately successful innovation would
outweigh the expected benefits of all but the most successful innovations. Variation in local
building codes has also caused inefficiencies although repeated attempts have been made to
standardize building codes.
In addition to the scale economies visible within a sector of the construction market, there are
also possibilities for scale economies in individual facility. For example, the relationship between
the size of a building (expressed in square feet) and the input labor (expressed in laborhours per
square foot) varies for different types and sizes of buildings. As shown in Figure 3-3, these
relationships for several types of buildings exhibit different characteristics. [8] The labor hours
per square foot decline as the size of facility increases for houses, public housing and public
buildings. However, the labor hours per square foot almost remains constant for all sizes of
school buildings and increases as the size of a hospital facility increases.
Figure 3-3: Illustrative Relationships between Building Size and Input Labor by Types of
Building
(Reprinted with permission from P.J. Cassimatis, Economics of the Construction Industry,
The National Industry Conference Board, SEB, No. 111, 1969, p.53)
As the project moves from conceptual planning to detailed design, the design process becomes
more formal. In general, the actions of formulation, analysis, search, decision, specification and
modification still hold, but they represent specific steps with less random interactions in detailed
design. The design methodology thus formalized can be applied to a variety of design problems.
For example, the analogy of the schematic diagrams of the structural design process and of the
computer program development process is shown in Figure 3-5 [12].
Figure 3-5: An Analogy Between Structural Design and Computer Program Development
Process
(Reprinted with permission from E.H. Gaylord and C. N. Gaylord, eds., Structural Engineering
Handbook,
2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1979.)
The basic approach to design relies on decomposition and integration. Since design problems are
large and complex, they have to be decomposed to yield subproblems that are small enough to
solve. There are numerous alternative ways to decompose design problems, such as
decomposition by functions of the facility, by spatial locations of its parts, or by links of various
functions or parts. Solutions to subproblems must be integrated into an overall solution. The
integration often creates conceptual conflicts which must be identified and corrected. A
hierarchical structure with an appropriate number of levels may be used for the decomposition of
a design problem to subproblems. For example, in the structural design of a multistory building,
the building may be decomposed into floors, and each floor may in turn be decomposed into
separate areas. Thus, a hierarchy representing the levels of building, floor and area is formed.
Different design styles may be used. The adoption of a particular style often depends on factors
such as time pressure or available design tools, as well as the nature of the design problem.
Examples of different styles are:
Top-down design. Begin with a behavior description of the facility and work
towards descriptions of its components and their interconnections.
Bottom-up design. Begin with a set of components, and see if they can be
arranged to meet the behavior description of the facility.
The design of a new facility often begins with the search of the files for a design that comes as
close as possible to the one needed. The design process is guided by accumulated experience and
intuition in the form of heuristic rules to find acceptable solutions. As more experience is gained
for this particular type of facility, it often becomes evident that parts of the design problem are
amenable to rigorous definition and algorithmic solution. Even formal optimization methods may
be applied to some parts of the problem.
Hence, the procedure for seeking the goals can be recycled iteratively in order to make tradeoffs
and thus improve the solution of spatial layouts.
Consider, for example, an integrated functional design for a proposed hospital. [13] Since the
responsibilities for satisfying various needs in a hospital are divided among different groups of
personnel within the hospital administrative structure, a hierarchy of functions corresponding to
different levels of responsibilities is proposed in the systematic organization of hospital
functions. In this model, the functions of a hospital system are decomposed into a hierarchy of
several levels:
1. Hospital--conglomerate of all hospital services resulting from top policy
decisions,
2. Division--broadly related activities assigned to the same general area by
administrative decisions,
3. Department--combination of services delivered by a service or treatment
group,
4. Suite--specific style of common services or treatments performed in the
same suite of rooms,
5. Room--all activities that can be carried out in the same internal environment
surrounded by physical barriers,
6. Zone--several closely related activities that are undertaken by individuals,
7. Object--a single activity associated with an individual.
In the integrated functional design of hospitals, the connection between physical spaces and
functions is most easily made at the lowest level of the hierarchy, and then extended upward to
the next higher level. For example, a bed is a physical object immediately related to the activity
of a patient. A set of furniture consisting of a bed, a night table and an armchair arranged
comfortably in a zone indicates the sphere of private activities for a patient in a room with
multiple occupancy. Thus, the spatial representation of a hospital can be organized in stages
starting from the lowest level and moving to the top. In each step of the organization process, an
element (space or function) under consideration can be related directly to the elements at the
levels above it, to those at the levels below it, and to those within the same level.
Since the primary factor relating spaces is the movement of people and supplies, the objective of
arranging spaces is the minimization of movement within the hospital. On the other hand, the
internal environmental factors such as atmospheric conditions (pressure, temperature, relative
humidity, odor and particle pollution), sound, light and fire protection produce constraining
effects on the arrangement of spaces since certain spaces cannot be placed adjacent to other
spaces because of different requirements in environmental conditions. The consideration of
logistics is important at all levels of the hospital system. For example, the travel patterns between
objects in a zone or those between zones in a room are frequently equally important for devising
an effective design. On the other hand, the adjacency desirability matrix based upon
environmental conditions will not be important for organization of functional elements below the
room level since a room is the lowest level that can provide a physical barrier to contain
desirable environmental conditions. Hence, the organization of functions for a new hospital can
be carried out through an interactive process, starting from the functional elements at the lowest
level that is regarded as stable by the designer, and moving step by step up to the top level of the
hierarchy. Due to the strong correlation between functions and the physical spaces in which they
are performed, the arrangement of physical spaces for accommodating the functions will also
follow the same iterative process. Once a satisfactory spatial arrangement is achieved, the
hospital design is completed by the selection of suitable building components which complement
the spatial arrangement.
environment. In addition, compatibility of the structural system with mechanical equipment and
piping must be assured.
For traditional types of structures such as office buildings, there are standard systems derived
from the past experience of many designers. However, in many situations, special systems must
be developed to meet the specified requirements. The choice of materials for a structure depends
not only on the suitability of materials and their influence on the form of the structure. For
example, in the design of an airplane hangar, a steel skeleton frame may be selected because a
similar frame in reinforced concrete will limit the span of the structure owing to its unfavorable
ratio or resistance to weight. However, if a thin-shelled roof is adopted, reinforced concrete may
prove to be more suitable than steel. Thus, the interplay of the structural forms and materials
affects the selection of a structural system, which in turn may influence the method of
construction including the use of falsework.
Figure 3-10: Schematic Section of Anchored Steel Sheet Pile Retaining Wall
A commitment was made by both the owner and the engineer to accomplish what was a common
goal. The engineer made a commitment to design and construct the wall in a manner which
permitted a real-time evaluation of problems and the ability to take mitigating measures
throughout the construction of the wall. The owner made a commitment to give the engineer both
the professional latitude and resources required to perform his work. A design-construct contract
was negotiated whereby the design could be modified as actual conditions were encountered
during construction. But even with all of the planning, investigation and design efforts, there still
remained a sizable risk of failure.
The wall was successfully built--not according to a pre-devised plan which went smoothly, and
not without numerous problems to be resolved as unexpected groundwater and geological
conditions were encountered. Estimated costs were exceeded as each unexpected condition was
addressed. But there were no construction delays and their attendant costs as disputes over
changed conditions and contract terms were reconciled. There were no costs for legal fees arising
from litigation nor increased interest costs as construction stopped while disputes were litigated.
The owner paid more than was estimated, but not more than was necessary and not as much as if
he had to acquire the property at the top of the hill to regrade the slope. In addition, the owner
was able to attain the desired facility expansion in far less time than by any other method.
As a result of the success of this experience and others, the use of tie-back retaining walls has
become a routine practice.
surface or from the groundwater into the landfill will result in vertical or horizontal percolation
of leachable ions and organic contamination. This leachate would be odorous and potentially
hazardous in water. The pollutant would show up as seepage downhill, as pollution in surface
streams, or as pollution entering the regional groundwater.
Before new construction could proceed, this landfill site would have to be controlled or removed.
Typical control methods might involve:
The excavation and reburial of even a small landfill site can be very expensive. For example, the
estimated reburial cost for a landfill like that shown in Figure 3-11 was in excess of $ 4 million
in 1978.
same time insuring technical feasibility. Construction planning is more difficult in some ways
since the building process is dynamic as the site and the physical facility change over time as
construction proceeds. On the other hand, construction operations tend to be fairly standard from
one project to another, whereas structural or foundation details might differ considerably from
one facility to another.
Forming a good construction plan is an exceptionally challenging problem. There are numerous
possible plans available for any given project. While past experience is a good guide to
construction planning, each project is likely to have special problems or opportunities that may
require considerable ingenuity and creativity to overcome or exploit. Unfortunately, it is quite
difficult to provide direct guidance concerning general procedures or strategies to form good
plans in all circumstances. There are some recommendations or issues that can be addressed to
describe the characteristics of good plans, but this does not necessarily tell a planner how to
discover a good plan. However, as in the design process, strategies of decomposition in which
planning is divided into subproblems and hierarchical planning in which general activities are
repeatably subdivided into more specific tasks can be readily adopted in many cases.
From the standpoint of construction contractors or the construction divisions of large firms, the
planning process for construction projects consists of three stages that take place between the
moment in which a planner starts the plan for the construction of a facility to the moment in
which the evaluation of the final output of the construction process is finished.
The estimate stage involves the development of a cost and duration estimate for the construction
of a facility as part of the proposal of a contractor to an owner. It is the stage in which
assumptions of resource commitment to the necessary activities to build the facility are made by
a planner. A careful and thorough analysis of different conditions imposed by the construction
project design and by site characteristics are taken into consideration to determine the best
estimate. The success of a contractor depends upon this estimate, not only to obtain a job but also
to construct the facility with the highest profit. The planner has to look for the time-cost
combination that will allow the contractor to be successful in his commitment. The result of a
high estimate would be to lose the job, and the result of a low estimate could be to win the job,
but to lose money in the construction process. When changes are done, they should improve the
estimate, taking into account not only present effects, but also future outcomes of succeeding
activities. It is very seldom the case in which the output of the construction process exactly
echoes the estimate offered to the owner.
In the monitoring and control stage of the construction process, the construction manager has to
keep constant track of both activities' durations and ongoing costs. It is misleading to think that if
the construction of the facility is on schedule or ahead of schedule, the cost will also be on the
estimate or below the estimate, especially if several changes are made. Constant evaluation is
necessary until the construction of the facility is complete. When work is finished in the
construction process, and information about it is provided to the planner, the third stage of the
planning process can begin.
The evaluation stage is the one in which results of the construction process are matched against
the estimate. A planner deals with this uncertainty during the estimate stage. Only when the
outcome of the construction process is known is he/she able to evaluate the validity of the
estimate. It is in this last stage of the planning process that he or she determines if the
assumptions were correct. If they were not or if new constraints emerge, he/she should introduce
corresponding adjustments in future planning.
considered. Finally, the availability of components at the required time during the construction
process should also be considered.
The lack of uniformity in building codes has serious impact on design and construction as well as
the regulatory process for buildings. Among the significant factors are:
Delay in the diffusion of new building innovations which may take a long time
to find their ways to be incorporated in building codes.
Discouragement to new production organizations, such as industrialized
construction and prefabrication.
Duplication of administrative cost of public agencies and compliance cost
incurred by private firms.
application programs are rapidly being adopted. These are motivated in part by the remarkable
improvement in computer hardware capability, the introduction of the Internet, and an
extraordinary decline in cost. New concepts in computer design and in software are also
contributing. For example, the introduction of personal computers using microcircuitry has
encouraged the adoption of interactive programs because of the low cost and considerable
capability of the computer hardware. Personal computers available for a thousand dollars in 1995
have essentially the same capability as expensive mainframe computer systems of fifteen years
earlier.
Computer graphics provide another pertinent example of a potentially revolutionary mechanism
for design and communication. Graphical representations of both the physical and work activities
on projects have been essential tools in the construction industry for decades. However, manual
drafting of blueprints, plans and other diagrams is laborious and expensive. Stand alone,
computer aided drafting equipment has proved to be less expensive and fully capable of
producing the requiring drawings. More significantly, the geometric information required for
producing desired drawings might also be used as a database for computer aided design and
computer integrated construction. Components of facilities can be represented as three
dimensional computer based solid models for this purpose. Geometric information forms only
one component of integrated design databases in which the computer can assure consistency,
completeness and compliance with relevant specifications and constraints. Several approaches to
integrated computer aided engineering environments of this type have already been attempted.
[19]
Computers are also being applied more and more extensively to non-analytical and nonnumerical tasks. For example, computer based specification writing assistants are used to rapidly
assemble sets of standard specifications or to insert special clauses in the documentation of
facility designs. As another example, computerized transfer of information provides a means to
avoid laborious and error-prone transcription of project information. While most of the
traditional applications and research in computer aids have emphasized numerical calculations,
the use of computers will rapidly shift towards the more prevalent and difficult problems of
planning, communication, design and management.
Knowledge based systems represent a prominent example of new software approaches applicable
to project management. These systems originally emerged from research in artificial intelligence
in which human cognitive processes were modeled. In limited problem domains such as
equipment configuration or process control, knowledge based systems have been demonstrated
to approach or surpass the performance of human experts. The programs are marked by a
separation between the reasoning or "inference" engine program and the representation of
domain specific knowledge. As a result, system developers need not specify complete problem
solving strategies (or algorithms) for particular problems. This characteristic of knowledge based
systems make them particularly useful in the ill-structured domains of design and project
management. Chapter 15 will discuss knowledge based systems in greater detail.
Computer program assistants will soon become ubiquitous in virtually all project management
organizations. The challenge for managers is to use the new tools in an effective fashion.
Computer intensive work environments should be structured to aid and to amplify the
capabilities of managers rather than to divert attention from real problems such as worker
motivation.
3.14 References
1. Au, T. and P. Christiano, Structural Analysis, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood
Cliffs, NJ, 1987.
2. Building Research Advisory Board, Exploratory Study on Responsibility,
Liability and Accountability for Risks in Construction, National Academy of
Sciences, Washington, D.C., 1978.
3. Drucker, P.F., Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Practice and Principles,
Harper and Row, New York, 1985.
4. Gaylord, E., and C. Gaylord (Editors), Structural Engineering Handbook,
McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, 1979.
5. Levitt, R.E., R.D. Logcher and N.H. Quaddumi, "Impact of Owner-Engineer Risk
Sharing on Design Conservatism," ASCE Journal of Professional Issues in
Engineering, Vol. 110, 1984, pp. 157-167.
6. Simon, H.A., The Science of the Artificial, Second Edition, MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA, 1981.
7. Tatum, C.B., "Innovation on the Construction Project: A Process View," Project
Management Journal, Vol. 18, No. 5, 1987, pp. 57-67.
8. Pre-Project Planning Research Team, Pre-Project Planning Handbook
Construction Industry Institute, Publication 39-2, April 1995.
3.15 Footnotes
1. See "ASCE Unveils Quality Manual", ENR, November 5, 1987, p. 14) Back
2. See V. Fairweather, "Milan's Model Metro", Civil Engineering, December 1987,
pp. 40-43.Back
3. See T.Y. Lin and B.G. Gerwick, Jr. "Design of Long Span Concrete Bridges with
Special References to Prestressing, Precasting, Structural Behavior and
Economics," ACI Publication SP-23, First International Symposium, 1969, pp.
693-704 Back
4. See Linnhoff, B., D.W. Townsend, D. Boland, G.F. Hewitt, B.E.A. Thomas, A.R.
Guy, and R.H. Marsland, User Guide on Process Integration for the Efficient
Use of Energy, Institution of Chemical Engineers, Rugby, Warks., England,
1982. Back
5. "More Construction for the Money," Summary Report of the Construction
Industry Cost Effectiveness Project, The Business Roundtable, New York,
1983, pg. 30. Back
6. See "The Quiet Revolution in Skyscraper Design, " Civil Engineering, May
1983, pp. 54-59. Back
Previous
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(The Design and Chapter 5
Construction
(Cost
Process)
Estimation)
Labor, Material and
Equipment Utilization
Historical Perspective
Labor Productivity
Factors Affecting Job-Site
Productivity
Labor Relations in
Construction
Problems in Collective
Bargaining
Materials Management
Material Procurement and
Delivery
Inventory Control
Tradeoffs of Costs in
Materials Management.
Construction Equipment
Choice of Equipment and
Standard Production Rates
Construction Processes
Queues and Resource
Bottlenecks
References
Problems
Footnotes
special attention for cost reduction. The use of new equipment and innovative methods has made
possible wholesale changes in construction technologies in recent decades. Organizations which
do not recognize the impact of various innovations and have not adapted to changing
environments have justifiably been forced out of the mainstream of construction activities.
Observing the trends in construction technology presents a very mixed and ambiguous picture.
On the one hand, many of the techniques and materials used for construction are essentially
unchanged since the introduction of mechanization in the early part of the twentieth century. For
example, a history of the Panama Canal construction from 1904 to 1914 argues that:
[T]he work could not have done any faster or more efficiently in our day, despite all
technological and mechanical advances in the time since, the reason being that no present system
could possibly carry the spoil away any faster or more efficiently than the system employed. No
motor trucks were used in the digging of the canal; everything ran on rails. And because of the
mud and rain, no other method would have worked half so well. [1]
In contrast to this view of one large project, one may also point to the continual change and
improvements occurring in traditional materials and techniques. Bricklaying provides a good
example of such changes:
Bricklaying...is said not to have changed in thousands of years; perhaps in the literal placing of
brick on brick it has not. But masonry technology has changed a great deal. Motorized
wheelbarrows and mortar mixers, sophisticated scaffolding systems, and forklift trucks now
assist the bricklayer. New epoxy mortars give stronger adhesion between bricks. Mortar additives
and cold-weather protection eliminate winter shutdowns. [2]
Add to this list of existing innovations the possibility of robotic bricklaying; automated
prototypes for masonry construction already exist. Technical change is certainly occurring in
construction, although it may occur at a slower rate than in other sectors of the economy.
The United States construction industry often points to factors which cannot be controlled by the
industry as a major explanatory factor in cost increases and lack of technical innovation. These
include the imposition of restrictions for protection of the environment and historical districts,
requirements for community participation in major construction projects, labor laws which allow
union strikes to become a source of disruption, regulatory policies including building codes and
zoning ordinances, and tax laws which inhibit construction abroad. However, the construction
industry should bear a large share of blame for not realizing earlier that the technological edge
held by the large U.S. construction firms has eroded in face of stiff foreign competition. Many
past practices, which were tolerated when U.S. contractors had a technological lead, must now be
changed in the face of stiff competition. Otherwise, the U.S. construction industry will continue
to find itself in trouble.
With a strong technological base, there is no reason why the construction industry cannot catch
up and reassert itself to meet competition wherever it may be. Individual design and/or
construction firms must explore new ways to improve productivity for the future. Of course,
operational planning for construction projects is still important, but such tactical planning has
limitations and may soon reach the point of diminishing return because much that can be wrung
out of the existing practices have already been tried. What is needed the most is strategic
planning to usher in a revolution which can improve productivity by an order of magnitude or
more. Strategic planning should look at opportunities and ask whether there are potential options
along which new goals may be sought on the basis of existing resources. No one can be certain
about the success of various development options for the design professions and the construction
industry. However, with the availability of today's high technology, some options have good
potential of success because of the social and economic necessity which will eventually push
barriers aside. Ultimately, decisions for action, not plans, will dictate future outcomes.
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While each contractor or owner is free to use its own system to measure labor productivity at a
site, it is a good practice to set up a system which can be used to track productivity trends over
time and in varied locations. Considerable efforts are required to collect information regionally
or nationally over a number of years to produce such results. The productivity indices compiled
from statistical data should include parameters such as the performance of major crafts, effects of
project size, type and location, and other major project influences.
In order to develop industry-wide standards of performance, there must be a general agreement
on the measures to be useful for compiling data. Then, the job site productivity data collected by
various contractors and owners can be correlated and analyzed to develop certain measures for
each of the major segment of the construction industry. Thus, a contractor or owner can compare
its performance with that of the industry average.
Labor availability.
Equipment utilization.
Contractual agreements.
Local climate.
The non-productive activities associated with a project may or may not be paid by the owner, but
they nevertheless take up potential labor resources which can otherwise be directed to the
project. The non-productive activities include among other factors:
Non-working holidays
Strikes
Each category of factors affects the productive labor available to a project as well as the on-site
labor efficiency.
Labor Characteristics
Performance analysis is a common tool for assessing worker quality and contribution. Factors
that might be evaluated include:
Related Work Knowledge - knowledge of effects of work upon other areas and
knowledge of related areas which have influence on assigned work.
Resource Utilization - ability to delineate project needs and locate, plan and effectively
use all resources available.
Ability to Work Under Pressure - ability to meet tight deadlines and adapt to changes.
Profit and Cost Sensitivity - ability to seek out, generate and implement profit-making
ideas.
Planning Effectiveness - ability to anticipate needs, forecast conditions, set goals and
standards, plan and schedule work and measure results.
Leadership - ability to develop in others the willingenss and desire to work towards
common objectives.
Development People - ability to select, train and appraise personnel, set standards of
performance, and provide motivation to grow in their capacity. < li>Diversity (Equal
Employment Opportunity) - ability to be senstive to the needs of minorities, females and
other protected groups and to demonstrate affirmative action in responding to these
needs.
These different factors could each be assessed on a three point scale: (1) recognized strength, (2)
meets expectations, (3) area needing improvement. Examples of work performance in these areas
might also be provided.
The effects of various factors related to work conditions on a new project can be estimated in
advance, some more accurately than others. For example, for very large construction projects, the
labor productivity index tends to decrease as the project size and/or complexity increase because
of logistic problems and the "learning" that the work force must undergo before adjusting to the
new environment. Job-site accessibility often may reduce the labor productivity index if the
workers must perform their jobs in round about ways, such as avoiding traffic in repaving the
highway surface or maintaining the operation of a plant during renovation. Labor availability in
the local market is another factor. Shortage of local labor will force the contractor to bring in
non-local labor or schedule overtime work or both. In either case, the labor efficiency will be
reduced in addition to incurring additional expenses. The degree of equipment utilization and
mechanization of a construction project clearly will have direct bearing on job-site labor
productivity. The contractual agreements play an important role in the utilization of union or
non-union labor, the use of subcontractors and the degree of field supervision, all of which will
impact job-site labor productivity. Since on-site construction essentially involves outdoor
activities, the local climate will influence the efficiency of workers directly. In foreign
operations, the cultural characteristics of the host country should be observed in assessing the
labor efficiency.
Non-Productive Activities
The non-productive activities associated with a project should also be examined in order to
examine the productive labor yield, which is defined as the ratio of direct labor hours devoted to
the completion of a project to the potential labor hours. The direct labor hours are estimated on
the basis of the best possible conditions at a job site by excluding all factors which may reduce
the productive labor yield. For example, in the repaving of highway surface, the flagmen
required to divert traffic represent indirect labor which does not contribute to the labor efficiency
of the paving crew if the highway is closed to the traffic. Similarly, for large projects in remote
areas, indirect labor may be used to provide housing and infrastructure for the workers hired to
supply the direct labor for a project. The labor hours spent on rework to correct unsatisfactory
original work represent extra time taken away from potential labor hours. The labor hours related
to such activities must be deducted from the potential labor hours in order to obtain the actual
productive labor yield.
Example 4-1: Effects of job size on productivity
A contractor has established that under a set of "standard" work conditions for building
construction, a job requiring 500,000 labor hours is considered standard in determining the base
labor productivity. All other factors being the same, the labor productivity index will increase to
1.1 or 110% for a job requiring only 400,000 labor-hours. Assuming that a linear relation exists
for the range between jobs requiring 300,000 to 700,000 labor hours as shown in Figure 4-1,
determine the labor productivity index for a new job requiring 650,000 labor hours under
otherwise the same set of work conditions.
Figure 4-1: Illustrative Relationship between Productivity Index and Job Size
The labor productivity index I for the new job can be obtained by linear interpolation of the
available data as follows:
This implies that labor is 15% less productive on the large job than on the standard project.
Example 4-2: Productive labor yield [3]
In the construction of an off-shore oil drilling platform, the potential labor hours were found to
be L = 7.5 million hours. Of this total, the non-productive activities expressed in thousand labor
hours were as follows:
C = 1,141 for temporary stoppage (i.e. weather, waiting, union activities, etc.)
D = 1,431 for indirect labor (i.e. building temporary facilities, cleaning up the site,
rework to correct errors, etc.)
Determine the productive labor yield after the above factors are taken into consideration.
The percentages of time allocated to various non-productive activities, A, B, C and D are:
The productive labor yield, Y, when the given factors for A, B, C and D are considered, is as
follows:
As a result, only 41% of the budgeted labor time was devoted directly to work on the facility.
Example 4-3: Utilization of on-site worker's time
An example illustrating the effects of indirect labor requirements which limit productive labor by
a typical craftsman on the job site was given by R. Tucker with the following percentages of time
allocation: [4]
Productive time
Unproductive time
Administrative delays
Inefficient work methods
Labor jurisdictions and other work
restrictions
Personal time
40%
20%
20%
15%
5%
In this estimate, as much time is spent on productive work as on delays due to management and
inefficiencies due to antiquated work methods.
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Unionized Construction
The craft unions work with construction contractors using unionized labor through various
market institutions such as jurisdiction rules, apprenticeship programs, and the referral system.
Craft unions with specific jurisdiction rules for different trades set uniform hourly wage rates for
journeymen and offer formal apprenticeship training to provide common and equivalent skill for
each trade. Contractors, through the contractors' associations, enter into legally binding collective
bargaining agreements with one or more of the craft unions in the construction trades. The
system which bind both parties to a collective bargaining agreement is referred to as the "union
shop". These agreements obligate a contractor to observe the work jurisdictions of various unions
and to hire employees through a union operated referral system commonly known as the hiring
hall.
The referral systems operated by union organizations are required to observe several conditions:
1. All qualified workers reported to the referral system must be made available to the
contractor without discrimination on the basis of union membership or other relationship
to the union. The "closed shop" which limits referral to union members only is now
illegal.
2. The contractor reserves the right to hire or refuse to hire any worker referred by the union
on the basis of his or her qualifications.
3. The referral plan must be posted in public, including any priorities of referrals or required
qualifications.
While these principles must prevail, referral systems operated by labor organizations differ
widely in the construction industry.
Contractors and craft unions must negotiate not only wage rates and working conditions, but also
hiring and apprentice training practices. The purpose of trade jurisdiction is to encourage
considerable investment in apprentice training on the part of the union so that the contractor will
be protected by having only qualified workers perform the job even though such workers are not
permanently attached to the contractor and thus may have no sense of security or loyalty. The
referral system is often a rapid and dependable source of workers, particularly for a contractor
who moves into a new geographical location or starts a new project which has high fluctuations
in demand for labor. By and large, the referral system has functioned smoothly in providing
qualified workers to contractors, even though some other aspects of union operations are not as
well accepted by contractors.
Non-Unionized Construction
In recent years, non-union contractors have entered and prospered in an industry which has a
long tradition of unionization. Non-union operations in construction are referred to as "open
shops." However, in the absence of collective bargaining agreements, many contractors operate
under policies adopted by non-union contractors' associations. This practice is referred to as
"merit shop", which follows substantially the same policies and procedures as collective
bargaining although under the control of a non-union contractors' association without union
participation. Other contractors may choose to be totally "unorganized" by not following either
union shop or merit shop practices.
The operations of the merit shop are national in scope, except for the local or state apprenticeship
and training plans. The comprehensive plans of the contractors' association apply to all
employees and crafts of a contractor regardless of their trades. Under such operations, workers
have full rights to move through the nation among member contractors of the association. Thus,
the non-union segment of the industry is organized by contractors' associations into an integral
part of the construction industry. However, since merit shop workers are employed directly by
the construction firms, they have a greater loyalty to the firm, and recognize that their own
interest will be affected by the financial health of the firm.
Playing a significant role in the early growth and continued expansion of merit shop construction
is the Associated Builders and Contractors association. By 1987, it had a membership of nearly
20,000 contractors and a network of 75 chapters through the nation. Among the merit shop
contractors are large construction firms such as Fluor Daniel, Blount International, and Brown &
Root Construction. The advantages of merit shops as claimed by its advocates are:
the shared interest that management and workers have in seeing an individual firm
prosper.
By shouldering the training responsibility for producing skill workers, the merit shop contractors
have deflected the most serious complaints of users and labor that used to be raised against the
open shop. On the other hand, the use of mixed crews of skilled workers at a job site by merit
shop contractors enables them to remove a major source of inefficiencies caused by the exclusive
jurisdiction practiced in the union shop, namely the idea that only members of a particular union
should be permitted to perform any given task in construction. As a result, merit shop contractors
are able to exert a beneficial influence on productivity and cost-effectiveness of construction
projects.
The unorganized form of open shop is found primarily in housing construction where a large
percentage of workers are characterized as unskilled helpers. The skilled workers in various
crafts are developed gradually through informal apprenticeships while serving as helpers. This
form of open shop is not expected to expand beyond the type of construction projects in which
highly specialized skills are not required.
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Regional Bargaining
Currently, the geographical area in a collective bargaining agreement does not necessarily
coincide with the territory of the union and contractors' associations in the negotiations. There
are overlapping of jurisdictions as well as territories, which may create successions of contract
termination dates for different crafts. Most collective bargaining agreements are negotiated
locally, but regional agreements with more comprehensive coverage embracing a number of
states have been established. The role of national union negotiators and contractors'
representatives in local collective bargaining is limited. The national agreement between
international unions and a national contractor normally binds the contractors' association and its
bargaining unit. Consequently, the most promising reform lies in the broadening of the
geographic region of an agreement in a single trade without overlapping territories or
jurisdictions.
Multicraft Bargaining
The treatment of interrelationships among various craft trades in construction presents one of the
most complex issues in the collective bargaining process. Past experience on project agreements
has dealt with such issues successfully in that collective bargaining agreements are signed by a
group of craft trade unions and a contractor for the duration of a project. Project agreements may
reference other agreements on particular points, such as wage rates and fringe benefits, but may
set their own working conditions and procedures for settling disputes including a commitment of
no-strike and no-lockout. This type of agreement may serve as a starting point for multicraft
bargaining on a regional, non-project basis.
Materials management is not just a concern during the monitoring stage in which construction is
taking place. Decisions about material procurement may also be required during the initial
planning and scheduling stages. For example, activities can be inserted in the project schedule to
represent purchasing of major items such as elevators for buildings. The availability of materials
may greatly influence the schedule in projects with a fast track or very tight time schedule:
sufficient time for obtaining the necessary materials must be allowed. In some case, more
expensive suppliers or shippers may be employed to save time.
Materials management is also a problem at the organization level if central purchasing and
inventory control is used for standard items. In this case, the various projects undertaken by the
organization would present requests to the central purchasing group. In turn, this group would
maintain inventories of standard items to reduce the delay in providing material or to obtain
lower costs due to bulk purchasing. This organizational materials management problem is
analogous to inventory control in any organization facing continuing demand for particular
items.
Materials ordering problems lend themselves particularly well to computer based systems to
insure the consistency and completeness of the purchasing process. In the manufacturing realm,
the use of automated materials requirements planning systems is common. In these systems, the
master production schedule, inventory records and product component lists are merged to
determine what items must be ordered, when they should be ordered, and how much of each item
should be ordered in each time period. The heart of these calculations is simple arithmetic: the
projected demand for each material item in each period is subtracted from the available
inventory. When the inventory becomes too low, a new order is recommended. For items that are
non-standard or not kept in inventory, the calculation is even simpler since no inventory must be
considered. With a materials requirement system, much of the detailed record keeping is
automated and project managers are alerted to purchasing requirements.
Example 4-4: Examples of benefits for materials management systems.[6]
From a study of twenty heavy construction sites, the following benefits from the introduction of
materials management systems were noted:
In one project, a 6% reduction in craft labor costs occurred due to the improved
availability of materials as needed on site. On other projects, an 8% savings due to
reduced delay for materials was estimated.
A comparison of two projects with and without a materials management system
revealed a change in productivity from 1.92 man-hours per unit without a system
to 1.14 man-hours per unit with a new system. Again, much of this difference can
be attributed to the timely availability of materials.
Warehouse costs were found to decrease 50% on one project with the introduction
of improved inventory management, representing a savings of $ 92,000. Interest
charges for inventory also declined, with one project reporting a cash flow savings
of $ 85,000 from improved materials management.
Against these various benefits, the costs of acquiring and maintaining a materials management
system has to be compared. However, management studies suggest that investment in such
systems can be quite beneficial.
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and fabricated units, the percentages of costs on direct labor and materials for a project may
change if more prefabricated units are introduced in the construction process.
In the construction industry, materials used by a specific craft are generally handled by
craftsmen, not by general labor. Thus, electricians handle electrical materials, pipefitters handle
pipe materials, etc. This multiple handling diverts scarce skilled craftsmen and contractor
supervision into activities which do not directly contribute to construction. Since contractors are
not normally in the freight business, they do not perform the tasks of freight delivery efficiently.
All these factors tend to exacerbate the problems of freight delivery for very large projects.
Example 4-5: Freight delivery for the Alaska Pipeline Project [7]
The freight delivery system for the Alaska pipeline project was set up to handle 600,000 tons of
materials and supplies. This tonnage did not include the pipes which comprised another 500,000
tons and were shipped through a different routing system.
The complexity of this delivery system is illustrated in Figure 4-2. The rectangular boxes denote
geographical locations. The points of origin represent plants and factories throughout the US and
elsewhere. Some of the materials went to a primary staging point in Seattle and some went
directly to Alaska. There were five ports of entry: Valdez, Anchorage, Whittier, Seward and
Prudhoe Bay. There was a secondary staging area in Fairbanks and the pipeline itself was divided
into six sections. Beyond the Yukon River, there was nothing available but a dirt road for
hauling. The amounts of freight in thousands of tons shipped to and from various locations are
indicated by the numbers near the network branches (with arrows showing the directions of
material flows) and the modes of transportation are noted above the branches. In each of the
locations, the contractor had supervision and construction labor to identify materials, unload
from transport, determine where the material was going, repackage if required to split shipments,
and then re-load material on outgoing transport.
Duration Cumulative
(days) Duration
Requisition ready by designer
0
0
Owner approval
5
5
Inquiry issued to vendors
3
8
Vendor quotations received
15
23
Complete bid evaluation by designer
7
30
Owner approval
5
35
Place purchase order
5
40
Receive preliminary shop drawings
10
50
Receive final design drawings
10
60
Fabrication and delivery
60-200
120-260
Activities
As a result, this type of equipment procurement will typically require four to nine months.
Slippage or contraction in this standard schedule is also possible, based on such factors as the
extent to which a fabricator is busy.
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Purchase Costs
The purchase cost of an item is the unit purchase price from an external source including
transportation and freight costs. For construction materials, it is common to receive discounts for
bulk purchases, so the unit purchase cost declines as quantity increases. These reductions may
reflect manufacturers' marketing policies, economies of scale in the material production, or scale
economies in transportation. There are also advantages in having homogeneous materials. For
example, a bulk order to insure the same color or size of items such as bricks may be desirable.
Accordingly, it is usually desirable to make a limited number of large purchases for materials. In
some cases, organizations may consolidate small orders from a number of different projects to
capture such bulk discounts; this is a basic saving to be derived from a central purchasing office.
The cost of materials is based on prices obtained through effective bargaining. Unit prices of
materials depend on bargaining leverage, quantities and delivery time. Organizations with
potential for long-term purchase volume can command better bargaining leverage. While orders
in large quantities may result in lower unit prices, they may also increase holding costs and thus
cause problems in cash flow. Requirements of short delivery time can also adversely affect unit
prices. Furthermore, design characteristics which include items of odd sizes or shapes should be
avoided. Since such items normally are not available in the standard stockpile, purchasing them
causes higher prices.
The transportation costs are affected by shipment sizes and other factors. Shipment by the full
load of a carrier often reduces prices and assures quicker delivery, as the carrier can travel from
the origin to the destination of the full load without having to stop for delivering part of the cargo
at other stations. Avoiding transshipment is another consideration in reducing shipping cost.
While the reduction in shipping costs is a major objective, the requirements of delicate handling
of some items may favor a more expensive mode of transportation to avoid breakage and
replacement costs.
Order Cost
The order cost reflects the administrative expense of issuing a purchase order to an outside
supplier. Order costs include expenses of making requisitions, analyzing alternative vendors,
writing purchase orders, receiving materials, inspecting materials, checking on orders, and
maintaining records of the entire process. Order costs are usually only a small portion of total
costs for material management in construction projects, although ordering may require
substantial time.
Holding Costs
The holding costs or carrying costs are primarily the result of capital costs, handling, storage,
obsolescence, shrinkage and deterioration. Capital cost results from the opportunity cost or
financial expense of capital tied up in inventory. Once payment for goods is made, borrowing
costs are incurred or capital must be diverted from other productive uses. Consequently, a capital
carrying cost is incurred equal to the value of the inventory during a period multiplied by the
interest rate obtainable or paid during that period. Note that capital costs only accumulate when
payment for materials actually occurs; many organizations attempt to delay payments as long as
possible to minimize such costs. Handling and storage represent the movement and protection
charges incurred for materials. Storage costs also include the disruption caused to other project
activities by large inventories of materials that get in the way. Obsolescence is the risk that an
item will lose value because of changes in specifications. Shrinkage is the decrease in inventory
over time due to theft or loss. Deterioration reflects a change in material quality due to age or
environmental degradation. Many of these holding cost components are difficult to predict in
advance; a project manager knows only that there is some chance that specific categories of cost
will occur. In addition to these major categories of cost, there may be ancillary costs of additional
insurance, taxes (many states treat inventories as taxable property), or additional fire hazards. As
a general rule, holding costs will typically represent 20 to 40% of the average inventory value
over the course of a year; thus if the average material inventory on a project is $ 1 million over a
year, the holding cost might be expected to be $200,000 to $400,000.
Unavailability Cost
The unavailability cost is incurred when a desired material is not available at the desired time. In
manufacturing industries, this cost is often called the stockout or depletion cost. Shortages may
delay work, thereby wasting labor resources or delaying the completion of the entire project.
Again, it may be difficult to forecast in advance exactly when an item may be required or when
an shipment will be received. While the project schedule gives one estimate, deviations from the
schedule may occur during construction. Moreover, the cost associated with a shortage may also
be difficult to assess; if the material used for one activity is not available, it may be possible to
assign workers to other activities and, depending upon which activities are critical, the project
may not be delayed.
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4.1
If a and b are the lower and upper bounds of possible delivery dates, the expected delivery time
is then given by:
4.2
The lead time L for ordering an item is the time period ahead of the delivery time, and will
depend on the tradeoff between holding costs and unavailability costs. A project manager may
want to avoid the unavailable cost by requiring delivery on the scheduled date of use, or may be
to lower the holding cost by adopting a more flexible lead time based on the expected delivery
time. For example, the manager may make the tradeoff by specifying the lead time to be D days
more than the expected delivery time, i.e.,
4.3
where D may vary from 0 to the number of additional days required to produce certain delivery
on the desired date.
In a more realistic situation, the project manager would also contend with the uncertainty of
exactly when the item might be required. Even if the item is scheduled for use on a particular
date, the work progress might vary so that the desired date would differ. In many cases, greater
than expected work progress may result in no savings because materials for future activities are
unavailable.
Example 4-7: : Lead time for ordering with no processing time.
Table 4-1 summarizes the probability of different delivery times for an item. In this table, the
first column lists the possible shipping times (ranging from 10 to 16 days), the second column
lists the probability or chance that this shipping time will occur and the third column summarizes
the chance that the item arrives on or before a particular date. This table can be used to indicate
the chance that the item will arrive on a desired date for different lead times. For example, if the
order is placed 12 days in advance of the desired date (so the lead time is 12 days), then there is a
15% chance that the item will arrive exactly on the desired day and a 35% chance that the item
will arrive on or before the desired date. Note that this implies that there is a 1 - 0.35 = 0.65 or
65% chance that the item will not arrive by the desired date with a lead time of 12 days. Given
the information in Table 4-1, when should the item order be placed?
Table 4-1 Delivery Date on Orders and Probability of
Delivery for an Example
Delivery Probability of Cummulative probability
of delivery by day t
Date delivery on date t
t
p(t)
Pr{T t}
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0.10
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.30
0.10
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.35
0.55
0.85
0.95
1.00
Suppose that the scheduled date of use for the item is in 16 days. To be completely certain to
have delivery by the desired day, the order should be placed 16 days in advance. However, the
expected delivery date with a 16 day lead time would be:
Footnotes
5. Cost Estimation
5.1 Costs Associated with Constructed Facilities
The costs of a constructed facility to the owner include both the initial capital cost and the
subsequent operation and maintenance costs. Each of these major cost categories consists of a
number of cost components.
The capital cost for a construction project includes the expenses related to the inital
establishment of the facility:
Construction financing
The operation and maintenance cost in subsequent years over the project life cycle includes the
following expenses:
Land rent, if applicable
Operating staff
Periodic renovations
Financing costs
Utilities
The magnitude of each of these cost components depends on the nature, size and location of the
project as well as the management organization, among many considerations. The owner is
interested in achieving the lowest possible overall project cost that is consistent with its
investment objectives.
It is important for design professionals and construction managers to realize that while the
construction cost may be the single largest component of the capital cost, other cost components
are not insignificant. For example, land acquisition costs are a major expenditure for building
construction in high-density urban areas, and construction financing costs can reach the same
order of magnitude as the construction cost in large projects such as the construction of nuclear
power plants.
From the owner's perspective, it is equally important to estimate the corresponding operation and
maintenance cost of each alternative for a proposed facility in order to analyze the life cycle
costs. The large expenditures needed for facility maintenance, especially for publicly owned
infrastructure, are reminders of the neglect in the past to consider fully the implications of
operation and maintenance cost in the design stage.
In most construction budgets, there is an allowance for contingencies or unexpected costs
occuring during construction. This contingency amount may be included within each cost item or
be included in a single category of construction contingency. The amount of contingency is based
on historical experience and the expected difficulty of a particular construction project. For
example, one construction firm makes estimates of the expected cost in five different areas:
Contingent amounts not spent for construction can be released near the end of construction to the
owner or to add additional project elements.
In this chapter, we shall focus on the estimation of construction cost, with only occasional
reference to other cost components. In Chapter 6, we shall deal with the economic evaluation of
a constructed facility on the basis of both the capital cost and the operation and maintenance cost
in the life cycle of the facility. It is at this stage that tradeoffs between operating and capital costs
can be analyzed.
Example 5-1: Energy project resource demands [1]
The resources demands for three types of major energy projects investigated during the energy
crisis in the 1970's are shown in Table 5-1. These projects are: (1) an oil shale project with a
capacity of 50,000 barrels of oil product per day; (2) a coal gasification project that makes gas
with a heating value of 320 billions of British thermal units per day, or equivalent to about
50,000 barrels of oil product per day; and (3) a tar sand project with a capacity of 150,000 barrels
of oil product per day.
For each project, the cost in billions of dollars, the engineering manpower requirement for basic
design in thousands of hours, the engineering manpower requirement for detailed engineering in
millions of hours, the skilled labor requirement for construction in millions of hours and the
material requirement in billions of dollars are shown in Table 5-1. To build several projects of
such an order of magnitude concurrently could drive up the costs and strain the availability of all
resources required to complete the projects. Consequently, cost estimation often represents an
exercise in professional judgment instead of merely compiling a bill of quantities and collecting
cost data to reach a total estimate mechanically.
TABLE 5-1 Resource Requirements of Some Major Energy Projects
Cost
($ billion)
Basic design
(Thousands of
hours)
Detailed
engineering
(Millions of
hours)
Construction
(Millions of
hours)
Materials
($ billion)
Oil shale
(50,000
barrels/day)
Coal gasification
(320 billions
BTU/day)
Tar Sands
(150,000
barrels/day)
2.5
8 to 10
80
200
100
3 to 4
4 to 5
6 to 8
20
30
40
2.5
engineering judgment and experience are utilized in the application of scientific principles and
techniques to the problem of cost estimation, cost control and profitability.
Virtually all cost estimation is performed according to one or some combination of the following
basic approaches:
Production function. In microeconomics, the relationship between the output of a process and
the necessary resources is referred to as the production function. In construction, the production
function may be expressed by the relationship between the volume of construction and a factor
of production such as labor or capital. A production function relates the amount or volume of
output to the various inputs of labor, material and equipment. For example, the amount of output
Q may be derived as a function of various input factors x1, x2, ..., xn by means of mathematical
and/or statistical methods. Thus, for a specified level of output, we may attempt to find a set of
values for the input factors so as to minimize the production cost. The relationship between the
size of a building project (expressed in square feet) to the input labor (expressed in labor hours
per square foot) is an example of a production function for construction. Several such production
functions are shown in Figure 3-3 of Chapter 3.
Empirical cost inference. Empirical estimation of cost functions requires statistical techniques
which relate the cost of constructing or operating a facility to a few important characteristics or
attributes of the system. The role of statistical inference is to estimate the best parameter values
or constants in an assumed cost function. Usually, this is accomplished by means of regression
analysis techniques.
Unit costs for bill of quantities. A unit cost is assigned to each of the facility components or
tasks as represented by the bill of quantities. The total cost is the summation of the products of
the quantities multiplied by the corresponding unit costs. The unit cost method is straightforward
in principle but quite laborious in application. The initial step is to break down or disaggregate a
process into a number of tasks. Collectively, these tasks must be completed for the construction
of a facility. Once these tasks are defined and quantities representing these tasks are assessed, a
unit cost is assigned to each and then the total cost is determined by summing the costs incurred
in each task. The level of detail in decomposing into tasks will vary considerably from one
estimate to another.
Allocation of joint costs. Allocations of cost from existing accounts may be used to develop a
cost function of an operation. The basic idea in this method is that each expenditure item can be
assigned to particular characteristics of the operation. Ideally, the allocation of joint costs should
be causally related to the category of basic costs in an allocation process. In many instances,
however, a causal relationship between the allocation factor and the cost item cannot be
identified or may not exist. For example, in construction projects, the accounts for basic costs
may be classified according to (1) labor, (2) material, (3) construction equipment, (4)
construction supervision, and (5) general office overhead. These basic costs may then be
allocated proportionally to various tasks which are subdivisions of a project.
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For each of these different estimates, the amount of design information available typically
increases.
2. Bid Estimates. For the contractor, a bid estimate submitted to the owner either for
competitive bidding or negotiation consists of direct construction cost including field
supervision, plus a markup to cover general overhead and profits. The direct cost of
construction for bid estimates is usually derived from a combination of the following
approaches.
o Subcontractor quotations
o
Quantity takeoffs
Construction procedures.
3. 3. Control Estimates. For monitoring the project during construction, a control estimate
is derived from available information to establish:
o
Design Estimates
In the planning and design stages of a project, various design estimates reflect the progress of the
design. At the very early stage, the screening estimate or order of magnitude estimate is usually
made before the facility is designed, and must therefore rely on the cost data of similar facilities
built in the past. A preliminary estimate or conceptual estimate is based on the conceptual design
of the facility at the state when the basic technologies for the design are known. The detailed
estimate or definitive estimate is made when the scope of work is clearly defined and the detailed
design is in progress so that the essential features of the facility are identifiable. The engineer's
estimate is based on the completed plans and specifications when they are ready for the owner to
solicit bids from construction contractors. In preparing these estimates, the design professional
will include expected amounts for contractors' overhead and profits.
The costs associated with a facility may be decomposed into a hierarchy of levels that are
appropriate for the purpose of cost estimation. The level of detail in decomposing the facility into
tasks depends on the type of cost estimate to be prepared. For conceptual estimates, for example,
the level of detail in defining tasks is quite coarse; for detailed estimates, the level of detail can
be quite fine.
As an example, consider the cost estimates for a proposed bridge across a river. A screening
estimate is made for each of the potential alternatives, such as a tied arch bridge or a cantilever
truss bridge. As the bridge type is selected, e.g. the technology is chosen to be a tied arch bridge
instead of some new bridge form, a preliminary estimate is made on the basis of the layout of the
selected bridge form on the basis of the preliminary or conceptual design. When the detailed
design has progressed to a point when the essential details are known, a detailed estimate is made
on the basis of the well defined scope of the project. When the detailed plans and specifications
are completed, an engineer's estimate can be made on the basis of items and quantities of work.
Bid Estimates
The contractor's bid estimates often reflect the desire of the contractor to secure the job as well as
the estimating tools at its disposal. Some contractors have well established cost estimating
procedures while others do not. Since only the lowest bidder will be the winner of the contract in
most bidding contests, any effort devoted to cost estimating is a loss to the contractor who is not
a successful bidder. Consequently, the contractor may put in the least amount of possible effort
for making a cost estimate if it believes that its chance of success is not high.
If a general contractor intends to use subcontractors in the construction of a facility, it may solicit
price quotations for various tasks to be subcontracted to specialty subcontractors. Thus, the
general subcontractor will shift the burden of cost estimating to subcontractors. If all or part of
the construction is to be undertaken by the general contractor, a bid estimate may be prepared on
the basis of the quantity takeoffs from the plans provided by the owner or on the basis of the
construction procedures devised by the contractor for implementing the project. For example, the
cost of a footing of a certain type and size may be found in commercial publications on cost data
which can be used to facilitate cost estimates from quantity takeoffs. However, the contractor
may want to assess the actual cost of construction by considering the actual construction
procedures to be used and the associated costs if the project is deemed to be different from
typical designs. Hence, items such as labor, material and equipment needed to perform various
tasks may be used as parameters for the cost estimates.
Control Estimates
Both the owner and the contractor must adopt some base line for cost control during the
construction. For the owner, a budget estimate must be adopted early enough for planning long
term financing of the facility. Consequently, the detailed estimate is often used as the budget
estimate since it is sufficient definitive to reflect the project scope and is available long before
the engineer's estimate. As the work progresses, the budgeted cost must be revised periodically to
reflect the estimated cost to completion. A revised estimated cost is necessary either because of
change orders initiated by the owner or due to unexpected cost overruns or savings.
For the contractor, the bid estimate is usually regarded as the budget estimate, which will be used
for control purposes as well as for planning construction financing. The budgeted cost should
also be updated periodically to reflect the estimated cost to completion as well as to insure
adequate cash flows for the completion of the project.
Example 5-2: Screening estimate of a grouting seal beneath a landfill [2]
One of the methods of isolating a landfill from groundwater is to create a bowl-shaped bottom
seal beneath the site as shown in Figure 5-0. The seal is constructed by pumping or pressureinjecting grout under the existing landfill. Holes are bored at regular intervals throughout the
landfill for this purpose and the grout tubes are extended from the surface to the bottom of the
landfill. A layer of soil at a minimum of 5 ft. thick is left between the grouted material and the
landfill contents to allow for irregularities in the bottom of the landfill. The grout liner can be
between 4 and 6 feet thick. A typical material would be Portland cement grout pumped under
pressure through tubes to fill voids in the soil. This grout would then harden into a permanent,
impermeable liner.
The average depth of the bore holes is estimated to be 20 ft. Hence, the total amount of drilling is
(144)(20) = 2,880 ft.
The volume of the soil layer for grouting is estimated to be:
for a 4 ft layer, volume = (4 ft)(360,000 ft2) = 1,440,000 ft3
for a 6 ft layer, volume = (6 ft)(360,000 ft2) = 2,160,000 ft3
It is estimated from soil tests that the voids in the soil layer are between 20% and 30% of the
total volume. Thus, for a 4 ft soil layer:
grouting in 20% voids = (20%)(1,440,000) = 288,000 ft3
grouting in 30 % voids = (30%)(1,440,000) = 432,000 ft3
and for a 6 ft soil layer:
grouting in 20% voids = (20%)(2,160,000) = 432,000 ft3
grouting in 30% voids = (30%)(2,160,000) = 648,000 ft3
The unit cost for drilling exploratory bore holes is estimated to be between $3 and $10 per foot
(in 1978 dollars) including all expenses. Thus, the total cost of boring will be between (2,880)(3)
= $ 8,640 and (2,880)(10) = $28,800. The unit cost of Portland cement grout pumped into place
is between $4 and $10 per cubic foot including overhead and profit. In addition to the variation
in the unit cost, the total cost of the bottom seal will depend upon the thickness of the soil layer
grouted and the proportion of voids in the soil. That is:
for a 4 ft layer with 20% voids, grouting cost = $1,152,000 to $2,880,000
for a 4 ft layer with 30% voids, grouting cost = $1,728,000 to $4,320,000
for a 6 ft layer with 20% voids, grouting cost = $1,728,000 to $4,320,000
for a 6 ft layer with 30% voids, grouting cost = $2,592,000 to $6,480,000
The total cost of drilling bore holes is so small in comparison with the cost of grouting that the
former can be omitted in the screening estimate. Furthermore, the range of unit cost varies
greatly with soil characteristics, and the engineer must exercise judgment in narrowing the range
of the total cost. Alternatively, additional soil tests can be used to better estimate the unit cost of
pumping grout and the proportion of voids in the soil. Suppose that, in addition to ignoring the
cost of bore holes, an average value of a 5 ft soil layer with 25% voids is used together with a
unit cost of $ 7 per cubic foot of Portland cement grouting. In this case, the total project cost is
estimated to be:
(5 ft)(360,000 ft2)(25%)($7/ft3) = $3,150,000
An important point to note is that this screening estimate is based to a large degree on
engineering judgment of the soil characteristics, and the range of the actual cost may vary from $
1,152,000 to $ 6,480,000 even though the probabilities of having actual costs at the extremes are
not very high.
Example 5-3: Example of engineer's estimate and contractors' bids[3]
The engineer's estimate for a project involving 14 miles of Interstate 70 roadway in Utah was
$20,950,859. Bids were submitted on March 10, 1987, for completing the project within 320
working days. The three low bidders were:
1. Ball, Ball & Brosame, Inc., Danville CA $14,129,798
2. National Projects, Inc., Phoenix, AR
$15,381,789
3. Kiewit Western Co., Murray, Utah
$18,146,714
It was astounding that the winning bid was 32% below the engineer's estimate. Even the third
lowest bidder was 13% below the engineer's estimate for this project. The disparity in pricing can
be attributed either to the very conservative estimate of the engineer in the Utah Department of
Transportation or to area contractors who are hungrier than usual to win jobs.
The unit prices for different items of work submitted for this project by (1) Ball, Ball &
Brosame, Inc. and (2) National Projects, Inc. are shown in Table 5-2. The similarity of their unit
prices for some items and the disparity in others submitted by the two contractors can be noted.
TABLE 5-2: Unit Prices in Two Contractors' Bids for Roadway Construction
Items
Unit
Unit price
Quantity
Mobilization
ls
115,000
569,554
Removal, berm
lf
8,020
1.00
1.50
Finish subgrade
sy
1,207,500
0.50
0.30
Surface ditches
lf
525
2.00
1.00
Excavation structures
cy
7,000
3.00
5.00
ton
362,200
4.50
5.00
sy
820,310
3.10
3.00
sy
76,010
10.90
12.00
Concrete, ci AA (AE)
ls
200,000
190,000
Small structure
cy
50
500
475
Barrier, precast
lf
7,920
15.00
16.00
sy
7,410
10.00
8.00
10'' thick
sy
4,241
20.00
27.00
Slope protection
sy
2,104
25.00
30.00
ea
39
100
125
18''
ea
150
200
lf
4,700
3.00
2.50
lf
1,680
5.00
12.00
Loose riprap
cy
32
40.00
30.00
Braced posts
ea
54
100
110
Delineators, type I
lb
1,330
12.00
12.00
ea
140
15.00
12.00
sf
52,600
0.10
0.40
lf
29,500
0.20
0.20
day
6,300
0.10
0.50
Black
gal
475
90.00
100
Yellow
gal
740
90.00
80.00
White
gal
985
90.00
70.00
ea
342
50.00
20.00
cy
260
10.00
6.00
type II
Warning lights
Pavement marking, epoxy material
TABLE 5-2: Unit Prices in Two Contractors' Bids for Roadway Construction
Unit price
Items
Seedling, method A
Unit Quantity
acr 103
150
200
Excelsior blanket
sy
500
2.00
2.00
lf
580
20.00
18.00
lf
2,250
15.00
13.00
ea
35
350
280
hr
18,000
0.80
0.80
cy
274
10.00
16.00
lf
722
100
80.00
Flagging
hr
20,000
8.25
12.50
ea
12,000
16.00
132'x4''
ea
11,000
14.00
Reinforced steel
lb
6,300
0.60
0.50
Epoxy coated
lb
122,241
0.55
0.50
Structural steel
ls
5,000
1,600
Sign, covering
sf
16
10.00
4.00
sf
98
15.00
17.00
24''
ea
100
400
30''
ea
100
160
48''
ea
11
200
300
Auxiliary
sf
61
15.00
12.00
ea
11
500
700
sf
669
15.00
19.00
24''
ea
23
100
125
30''
ea
100
150
36''
ea
12
150
180
42''x60''
ea
150
220
48''
ea
200
270
Auxiliary
sf
135
15.00
13.00
Steel post
sf
1,610
40.00
35.00
12''x36''
ea
28
100
150
Foundation, concrete
ea
60
300
650
ea
40
100
100
Barricade, 48''x42''
TABLE 5-2: Unit Prices in Two Contractors' Bids for Roadway Construction
Items
Wood post, road closed
Unit Quantity
lf
100
Unit price
30.00
36.00
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(5.2)
where a and b are positive constants to be determined on the basis of historical data. For 0 < b <
1, Equation (5.2) represents the case of increasing returns to scale, and for b ;gt 1, the
relationship becomes the case of decreasing returns to scale, as shown in Figure 5-3. Taking the
logarithm of both sides this equation, a linear relationship can be obtained as follows:
Figure 5-3: Nonlinear Cost Relationship with increasing or Decreasing Economies of Scale
(5.3)
Although no fixed cost is implied in Eq.(5.2), the equation is usually applicable only for a certain
range of x. The same limitation applies to Eq.(5.3). A nonlinear cost relationship often used in
estimating the cost of a new industrial processing plant from the known cost of an existing
facility of a different size is known as the exponential rule. Let yn be the known cost of an
existing facility with capacity Qn, and y be the estimated cost of the new facility which has a
capacity Q. Then, from the empirical data, it can be assumed that:
(5.4)
where m usually varies from 0.5 to 0.9, depending on a specific type of facility. A value of m =
0.6 is often used for chemical processing plants. The exponential rule can be reduced to a linear
relationship if the logarithm of Equation (5.4) is used:
(5.5)
or
(5.6)
The exponential rule can be applied to estimate the total cost of a complete facility or the cost of
some particular component of a facility.
Example 5-4: Determination of m for the exponential rule
The empirical cost data from a number of sewage treatment plants are plotted on a log-log scale
for ln(Q/Qn) and ln(y/yn) and a linear relationship between these logarithmic ratios is shown in
Figure 5-4. For (Q/Qn) = 1 or ln(Q/Qn) = 0, ln(y/yn) = 0; and for Q/Qn = 2 or ln(Q/Qn) = 0.301,
ln(y/yn) = 0.1765. Since m is the slope of the line in the figure, it can be determined from the
geometric relation as follows:
For ln(y/yn) = 0.1765, y/yn = 1.5, while the corresponding value of Q/Qn is 2. In words, for m =
0.585, the cost of a plant increases only 1.5 times when the capacity is doubled.
Example 5-5: Cost exponents for water and wastewater treatment plants[4]
The magnitude of the cost exponent m in the exponential rule provides a simple measure of the
economy of scale associated with building extra capacity for future growth and system reliability
for the present in the design of treatment plants. When m is small, there is considerable incentive
to provide extra capacity since scale economies exist as illustrated in Figure 5-3. When m is
close to 1, the cost is directly proportional to the design capacity. The value of m tends to
increase as the number of duplicate units in a system increases. The values of m for several types
of treatment plants with different plant components derived from statistical correlation of actual
construction costs are shown in Table 5-3.
TABLE 5-3 Estimated Values of Cost Exponents for Water Treatment Plants
Treatment plant
type
1. Water treatment
2. Waste treatment
Primary with digestion (small)
Primary with digestion (large)
Trickling filter
Activated sludge
Stabilization ponds
Exponent
m
Capacity range
(millions of gallons per day)
0.67
1-100
0.55
0.75
0.60
0.77
0.57
0.1-10
0.7-100
0.1-20
0.1-100
0.1-100
Source: Data are collected from various sources by P.M. Berthouex. See the references in his
article for the primary sources.
Example 5-6: Some Historical Cost Data for the Exponential Rule
The exponential rule as represented by Equation (5.4) can be expressed in a different form as:
where
If m and K are known for a given type of facility, then the cost y for a proposed new facility of
specified capacity Q can be readily computed.
TABLE 5-4 Cost Factors of Processing Units for Treatment Plants
Processing
unit
1. Liquid processing
Oil separation
Hydroclone degritter
Primary sedimentation
Furial clarifier
Sludge aeration basin
Tickling filter
Aerated lagoon basin
Equalization
Unit of
capacity
K Value
(1968 $)
m
value
mgd
mgd
ft2
ft2
mil. gal.
ft2
mil. gal.
mil. gal.
58,000
3,820
399
700
170,000
21,000
46,000
72,000
0.84
0.35
0.60
0.57
0.50
0.71
0.67
0.52
Neutralization
2. Sludge handling
Digestion
Vacuum filter
Centrifuge
mgd
60,000
0.70
ft3
ft2
lb dry
solids/hr
67,500
9,360
0.59
0.84
318
0.81
Source: Data are collected from various sources by P.M. Berthouex. See the references in his
article for the primary sources.
The estimated values of K and m for various water and sewage treatment plant components are
shown in Table 5-4. The K values are based on 1968 dollars. The range of data from which the K
and m values are derived in the primary sources should be observed in order to use them in
making cost estimates.
As an example, take K = $399 and m = 0.60 for a primary sedimentation component in Table 54. For a proposed new plant with the primary sedimentation process having a capacity of 15,000
sq. ft., the estimated cost (in 1968 dollars) is:
y = ($399)(15,000)0.60 = $128,000.
Back to top
For bid estimates, the unit cost method can also be applied even though the contractor may
choose to decompose the project into different levels in a hierarchy as follows:
1. Subcontractor Quotations. The decomposition of a project into subcontractor items for
quotation involves a minimum amount of work for the general contractor. However, the
accuracy of the resulting estimate depends on the reliability of the subcontractors since
the general contractor selects one among several contractor quotations submitted for each
item of subcontracted work.
2. Quantity Takeoffs. The decomposition of a project into items of quantities that are
measured (or taken off) from the engineer's plan will result in a procedure similar to that
adopted for a detailed estimate or an engineer's estimate by the design professional. The
levels of detail may vary according to the desire of the general contractor and the
availability of cost data.
3. Construction Procedures. If the construction procedure of a proposed project is used as
the basis of a cost estimate, the project may be decomposed into items such as labor,
material and equipment needed to perform various tasks in the projects.
piping and valves as a fraction or a multiple of the costs of the major equipment items. The value
of Ci may be obtained by applying the exponential rule so the use of Equation (5.8) may involve
a combination of cost estimation methods.
Contract elements
Formwork
Rebars
Concrete
Total cost
$5,000 $10,000
15,000 18,000
9,000 15,000
$29,000 $43,000
$13,000
28,000
16,000
$57,000
$28,000
61,000
40,000
$129,000
Example 5-8: Cost estimate using labor, material and equipment rates.
For the given quantities of work Qi for the concrete foundation of a building and the labor,
material and equipment rates in Table 5-6, the cost estimate is computed on the basis of Equation
(5.9). The result is tabulated in the last column of the same table.
TABLE 5-6 Illustrative Cost Estimate Using Labor, Material and Equipment Rates
Description
Formwork
Rebars
Concrete
Total
Quantity
Qi
12,000 ft2
4,000 lb
500 yd3
Material Equipment
unit cost unit cost
Mi
Ei
$0.4/ft2
0.2/lb
5.0/yd3
$0.8/ft2
0.3/lb
50/yd3
Wage
rate
Wi
Labor
input
Li
Labor
unit cost
WiLi
Direct
cost
Yi
$3.0/ft2 $50,400
0.6/lb
4,440
3
12.0/yd
33,500
$88,300
Back to top
(5.12)
and
(5.13)
Example 5-9: Prorated costs for field supervision and office overhead
If the field supervision cost is $13,245 for the project in Table 5-6 (Example 5-8) with a total
direct cost of $88,300, find the prorated field supervision costs for various elements of the
project. Furthermore, if the general office overhead charged to the project is 4% of the direct
field cost which is the sum of basic costs and field supervision cost, find the prorated general
office overhead costs for various elements of the project.
For the project, y = $88,300 and F = $13,245. Hence:
z = 13,245 + 88,300 = $101,545
G = (0.04)(101,545) = $4,062
w = 101,545 + 4,062 = $105,607
The results of the proration of costs to various elements are shown in Table 5-7.
TABLE 5-7 Proration of Field Supervision and Office Overhead Costs
Allocated
Total
Allocated
Description Basic cost field supervision cost field cost overhead cost Total cost
yi
Fi
zi
Gi
Li
Formwork
Rebars
Concrete
Total
$50,400
4,400
33,500
$88,300
$7,560 $57,960
660
5,060
5,025
38,525
$13,245 $101,545
$2,319 $60,279
202
5,262
1,541
40,066
$4,062 $105,607
costs for manufacturing a type of valve were estimated from engineering studies and from
current material and labor prices. These amounts are summarized in Columns 2 and 3 of Table 58. The overhead costs shown in Column 4 of Table 5-8 were obtained by allocating the expenses
of several departments to the various products manufactured in these departments in proportion
to the labor cost. As shown in the last line of the table, the material cost represents 29% of the
total cost, while labor costs are 11% of the total cost. The allocated overhead cost constitutes
60% of the total cost. Even though material costs exceed labor costs, only the labor costs are
used in allocating overhead. Although this type of allocation method is common in industry, the
arbitrary allocation of joint costs introduces unintended cross subsidies among products and may
produce adverse consequences on sales and profits. For example, a particular type of part may
incur few overhead expenses in practice, but this phenomenon would not be reflected in the
standard cost report.
TABLE 5-8 Standard Cost Report for a Type of Valve
(1) Material
cost
Purchased part
Operation
Drill, face, tap (2)
Degrease
Remove burs
Total cost, this item
Other subassemblies
Total cost,
subassemblies
Assemble and test
Pack without paper
Total cost, this item
Cost component, %
(2) Labor
cost
(3) Overhead
(4) Total cost
cost
$1.1980
$1.1980
1.1980
0.3523
$0.0438
0.0031
0.0577
0.1046
0.2994
$0.2404
0.0337
0.3241
0.5982
1.8519
$0.2842
0.0368
0.3818
1.9008
2.4766
1.5233
0.4040
2.4501
4.3773
$1.5233
29%
0.1469
0.0234
$0.5743
11%
0.4987
0.1349
$3.0837
60%
0.6456
0.1583
$5.1813
100%
Source: H. T. Johnson and R. S. Kaplan, Relevance lost: The Rise and Fall of
Management Accounting, Harvard Business School Press, Boston. Reprinted with
permission.
Back to top
with respect to changes that will inevitably occur. The format of cost data, such as unit costs for
various items, should be organized according to the current standard of usage in the organization.
Construction cost data are published in various forms by a number of organizations. These
publications are useful as references for comparison. Basically, the following types of
information are available:
Commercial cost reference manuals for estimating guides. An example is the Building
Construction Cost Data published annually by R.S. Means Company, Inc., which
contains unit prices on building construction items. Dodge Manual for Building
Construction, published by McGraw-Hill, provides similar information.
Digests of actual project costs. The Dodge Digest of Building Costs and Specifications
provides descriptions of design features and costs of actual projects by building type.
Once a week, ENR publishes the bid prices of a project chosen from all types of
construction projects.
Historical cost data must be used cautiously. Changes in relative prices may have substantial
impacts on construction costs which have increased in relative price. Unfortunately, systematic
changes over a long period of time for such factors are difficult to predict. Errors in analysis also
serve to introduce uncertainty into cost estimates. It is difficult, of course, to foresee all the
problems which may occur in construction and operation of facilities. There is some evidence
that estimates of construction and operating costs have tended to persistently understate the
actual costs. This is due to the effects of greater than anticipated increases in costs, changes in
design during the construction process, or overoptimism.
Since the future prices of constructed facilities are influenced by many uncertain factors, it is
important to recognize that this risk must be borne to some degree by all parties involved, i.e.,
the owner, the design professionals, the construction contractors, and the financing institution. It
is to the best interest of all parties that the risk sharing scheme implicit in the design/construct
process adopted by the owner is fully understood by all. When inflation adjustment provisions
have very different risk implications to various parties, the price level changes will also be
treated differently for various situations. Back to top
Since historical cost data are often used in making cost estimates, it is important to note the price
level changes over time. Trends in price changes can also serve as a basis for forecasting future
costs. The input price indices of labor and/or material reflect the price level changes of such
input components of construction; the output price indices, where available, reflect the price
level changes of the completed facilities, thus to some degree also measuring the productivity of
construction.
A price index is a weighted aggregate measure of constant quantities of goods and services
selected for the package. The price index at a subsequent year represents a proportionate change
in the same weighted aggregate measure because of changes in prices. Let lt be the price index in
year t, and lt+1 be the price index in the following year t+1. Then, the percent change in price
index for year t+1 is:
(5.14)
or
(5.15)
If the price index at the base year t=0 is set at a value of 100, then the price indices l1, l2...ln for
the subsequent years t=1,2...n can be computed successively from changes in the total price
charged for the package of goods measured in the index.
The best-known indicators of general price changes are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
deflators compiled periodically by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the consumer price
index (CPI) compiled periodically by the U.S. Department of Labor. They are widely used as
broad gauges of the changes in production costs and in consumer prices for essential goods and
services. Special price indices related to construction are also collected by industry sources since
some input factors for construction and the outputs from construction may disproportionately
outpace or fall behind the general price indices. Examples of special price indices for
construction input factors are the wholesale Building Material Price and Building Trades Union
Wages, both compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor. In addition, the construction cost index
and the building cost index are reported periodically in the Engineering News-Record (ENR).
Both ENR cost indices measure the effects of wage rate and material price trends, but they are
not adjusted for productivity, efficiency, competitive conditions, or technology changes.
Consequently, all these indices measure only the price changes of respective construction input
factors as represented by constant quantities of material and/or labor. On the other hand, the
price indices of various types of completed facilities reflect the price changes of construction
output including all pertinent factors in the construction process. The building construction
output indices compiled by Turner Construction Company and Handy-Whitman Utilities are
compiled in the U.S. Statistical Abstracts published each year.
Figure 5-7 and Table 5-9 show a variety of United States indices, including the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) price deflator, the ENR building index, and the Turner Construction Company
Building Cost Index from 1996 to 2007, using 2000 as the base year with an index of 100.
TABLE 5-9 Summary of Input and Output Price Indices, 1996-2007
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Turner Construction
- Buildings
84.9 88.2 92.3 95.8 100.0 103.0 104.0 104.4 110.1 120.5 133.3 143.5
ENR - Buildings
90.5 95.0 95.8 97.6 100.0 101.0 102.4 104.4 112.6 118.8 123.5 126.7
GDP Deflator
94.0 95.6 96.8 98.0 100.0 102.3 104.2 105.9 107.2 108.6 110.2 112.0
Note: Index = 100 in base year of 2000.
(5.16)
Conversely
(5.17
)
If the prices of certain key items affecting the estimates of future benefits and costs are expected
to escalate faster than the general price levels, it may become necessary to consider the
differential price changes over and above the general inflation rate. For example, during the
period between 1973 through 1979, it was customary to assume that fuel costs would escalate
faster than the general price levels. With hindsight in 1983, the assumption for estimating costs
over many years would have been different. Because of the uncertainty in the future, the use of
differential inflation rates for special items should be judicious.
Future forecasts of costs will be uncertain: the actual expenses may be much lower or much
higher than those forecasted. This uncertainty arises from technological changes, changes in
relative prices, inaccurate forecasts of underlying socioeconomic conditions, analytical errors,
and other factors. For the purpose of forecasting, it is often sufficient to project the trend of
future prices by using a constant rate j for price changes in each year over a period of t years,
then
(5.18)
and
(5.19)
Estimation of the future rate increase j is not at all straightforward. A simple expedient is to
assume that future inflation will continue at the rate of the previous period:
(5.20)
A longer term perspective might use the average increase over a horizon of n past periods:
(5.21)
More sophisticated forecasting models to predict future cost increases include corrections for
items such as economic cycles and technology changes.
Example 5-12: Changes in highway and building costs
Figure 5-9 shows the change of standard highway costs from 1992 to 2002, and Table 5-10
shows the change of residential building costs from 1970 to 1990. In each case, the rate of cost
increase was substantially above the rate of inflation in the decade of the 1970s.. Indeed, the real
cost increase between 1970 and 1980 was in excess of three percent per year in both cases.
However, these data also show some cause for optimism. For the case of the standard highway,
real cost decreases took place in the period from l970 to l990. Unfortunately, comparable indices
of outputs are not being compiled on a nationwide basis for other types of construction.
Figure 5-9 Producer Prices of Highway and Street Construction (Producer Price Index:
Highways and Streets-monthly data).
TABLE 5-10 Comparison of Residential Building Costs, 1970-1990
year
Standard
residence cost
(1972=100)
Price deflator
(1972=100)
Standard residence
real cost
(1972=100)
Percentage
change
per year
1970
1980
1990
77
203
287
92
179
247
74
99
116
+3.4%
+1.7%
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States. GNP deflator is used for the price deflator index.
Back to top
6. The contingency cost due to inclement weather delay will be reduced by the
amount of 1% of total construction cost because of the favorable climate in LA
(compared to Gary).
On the basis of the above conditions, the estimate for the new project may be obtained as
follows:
1. Typical cost excluding special item at Gary, IN is
$100 million - $5 million = $ 95 million
2. Adjustment for capacity based on the exponential law yields
($95)(300,000/200,000)0.6 = (95)(1.5)0.6 = $121.2 million
3. Adjustment for inflation leads to the cost in 2003 dollars as
($121.2)(1.08)4 = $164.6 million
4. Adjustment for location index gives
($164.6)(1.14/0.92) = $204.6 million
5. Adjustment for new pollution equipment at the LA plant gives
$204.6 + $7 = $211.6 million
6. Reduction in contingency cost yields
($211.6)(1-0.01) = $209.5 million
Since there is no adjustment for the cost of construction financing, the order of magnitude
estimate for the new project is $209.5 million.
Example 5-14: Conceptual estimate for a chemical processing plant
In making a preliminary estimate of a chemical processing plant, several major types of
equipment are the most significant parameters in affecting the installation cost. The cost of
piping and other ancillary items for each type of equipment can often be expressed as a
percentage of that type of equipment for a given capacity. The standard costs for the major
equipment types for two plants with different daily production capacities are as shown in Table
5-11. It has been established that the installation cost of all equipment for a plant with daily
production capacity between 100,000 bbl and 400,000 bbl can best be estimated by using linear
interpolation of the standard data.
TABLE 5-11 Cost Data for Equipment and Ancillary Items
Equipment Equipment Cost ($1000)
Cost of ancillary items
type
as % of equipment cost ($1000)
100,000 bbl
400,000 bbl
Furnace
3,000
10,000
40%
30%
Tower
2,000
6,000
45%
35%
Drum
1,500
5,000
50%
40%
Pump, etc.
1,000
4,000
60%
50%
A new chemical processing plant with a daily production capacity of 200,000 bbl is to be
constructed in Memphis, TN in four years. Determine the total preliminary cost estimate of the
plant including the building and the equipment on the following basis:
1. The installation cost for equipment was based on linear interpolation from Table 5-11,
and adjusted for inflation for the intervening four years. We expect inflation in the four
years to be similar to the period 1990-1994 and we will use the GNP Deflator index.
2. The location index for equipment installation is 0.95 for Memphis, TN, in comparison
with the standard cost.
3. An additional cost of $500,000 was required for the local conditions in Memphis, TN.
The solution of this problem can be carried out according to the steps as outlined in the problem
statement:
1. The costs of the equipment and ancillary items for a plant with a capacity of 200,000 bbl
can be estimated by linear interpolation of the data in Table 5-11 and the results are
shown in Table 5-12.
TABLE 5-12 Results of Linear Interpolation for an Estimation Example
Equipment
type
Equipment Cost
(in $1,000)
Percentage for
ancillary items
Furnace
Tower
Drum
Unit
Quantity
Unit price
Item cost
Mobilization
ls
115,000
115,000
Removal, berm
lf
8,020
1.00
8.020
Finish subgrade
sy
1,207,500
0.50
603,750
Surface ditches
lf
525
2.00
1,050
Excavation structures
cy
7,000
3.00
21,000
ton
362,200
4.50
1,629,900
sy
820,310
3.10
2,542,961
sy
76,010
10.90
7,695,509
Concrete, ci AA (AE)
ls
200,000
200,000
Small structure
cy
50
500
25,000
Barrier, precast
lf
7,920
15.00
118,800
sy
7,410
10.00
74,100
10'' thick
sy
4,241
20.00
84,820
Slope protection
sy
2,104
25.00
52,600
Unit
Quantity
Unit price
Item cost
ea
39
100
3,900
18''
ea
150
450
lf
4,700
3.00
14,100
lf
1,680
5.00
8,400
Loose riprap
cy
32
40.00
1,280
Braced posts
ea
54
100
5,400
Delineators, type I
lb
1,330
12.00
15,960
ea
140
15.00
2,100
sf
52,600
0.10
5,260
lf
29,500
0.20
5,900
day
6,300
0.10
630
Black
gal
475
90.00
42,750
Yellow
gal
740
90.00
66,600
White
gal
985
90.00
88,650
ea
342
50.00
17,100
cy
260
10.00
2,600
Seedling, method A
acr
103
150
15,450
Excelsior blanket
sy
500
2.00
1,000
lf
580
20.00
11,600
lf
2,250
15.00
33,750
ea
35
350
12,250
hr
18,000
0.80
14,400
cy
274
10.00
2,740
lf
722
100
72,200
Flagging
hr
20,000
8.25
165,000
ea
12,000
84,000
132'x4''
ea
11,000
66,000
Reinforced steel
lb
6,300
0.60
3,780
Epoxy coated
lb
122,241
0.55
67,232.55
Structural steel
ls
5,000
5,000
Sign, covering
sf
16
10.00
160
type II
Warning lights
Pavement marking, epoxy material
Unit
Quantity
Unit price
Item cost
sf
98
15.00
1,470
24''
ea
100
300
30''
ea
100
200
48''
ea
11
200
2,200
Auxiliary
sf
61
15.00
915
ea
11
500
5,500
sf
669
15.00
10,035
24''
ea
23
100
2,300
30''
ea
100
100
36''
ea
12
150
1,800
42''x60''
ea
150
1,200
48''
ea
200
1,400
Auxiliary
sf
135
15.00
2,025
Steel post
sf
1,610
40.00
64,400
12''x36''
ea
28
100
2,800
Foundation, concrete
ea
60
300
18,000
ea
40
100
4,000
lf
100
30.00
3,000
Barricade, 48''x42''
Wood post, road closed
Total
$14,129,797.55
Back to top
for production. A more reliable method is based on the concept of value of work completed
which is defined as the product of the budgeted labor hours per unit of production and the actual
number of production units completed, and is expressed in budgeted labor hours for the work
completed. Then, the percentage of completion at any stage is the ratio of the value of work
completed to date and the value of work to be completed for the entire project. Regardless of the
method of measurement, it is informative to understand the trend of work progress during
construction for evaluation and control.
In general, the work on a construction project progresses gradually from the time of mobilization
until it reaches a plateau; then the work slows down gradually and finally stops at the time of
completion. The rate of work done during various time periods (expressed in the percentage of
project cost per unit time) is shown schematically in Figure 5-10 in which ten time periods have
been assumed. The solid line A represents the case in which the rate of work is zero at time t = 0
and increases linearly to 12.5% of project cost at t = 2, while the rate begins to decrease from
12.5% at t = 8 to 0% at t = 10. The dotted line B represents the case of rapid mobilization by
reaching 12.5% of project cost at t = 1 while beginning to decrease from 12.5% at t = 7 to 0% at t
= 10. The dash line C represents the case of slow mobilization by reaching 12.5% of project cost
at t = 3 while beginning to decrease from 12.5% at t = 9 to 0% at t = 10.
The value of work completed at a given time (expressed as a cumulative percentage of project
cost) is shown schematically in Figure 5-11. In each case (A, B or C), the value of work
completed can be represented by an "S-shaped" curve. The effects of rapid mobilization and slow
mobilization are indicated by the positions of curves B and C relative to curve A, respectively.
While the curves shown in Figures 5-10 and 5-11 represent highly idealized cases, they do
suggest the latitude for adjusting the schedules for various activities in a project. While the rate
of work progress may be changed quite drastically within a single period, such as the change
from rapid mobilization to a slow mobilization in periods 1, 2 and 3 in Figure 5-10, the effect on
the value of work completed over time will diminish in significance as indicated by the
cumulative percentages for later periods in Figure 5-11. Thus, adjustment of the scheduling of
some activities may improve the utilization of labor, material and equipment, and any delay
caused by such adjustments for individual activities is not likely to cause problems for the
eventual progress toward the completion of a project.
In addition to the speed of resource mobilization, another important consideration is the overall
duration of a project and the amount of resources applied. Various strategies may be applied to
shorten the overall duration of a project such as overlapping design and construction activities
(as described in Chapter 2) or increasing the peak amounts of labor and equipment working on a
site. However, spatial, managerial and technical factors will typically place a minimum limit on
the project duration or cause costs to escalate with shorter durations.
Example 5-16: Calculation of Value of Work Completed
From the area of work progress in Figure 5-10, the value of work completed at any point in
Figure 5-11 can be derived by noting the area under the curve up to that point in Figure 5-10. The
result for t = 0 through t = 10 is shown in Table 5-14 and plotted in Figure 5-11.
Case A
Case B
Case C
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
3.1%
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
62.5
75.0
87.5
96.9
100.0
0
6.2%
18.7
31.2
43.7
56.2
68.7
81.2
91.7
97.9
100.0
0
2.1%
8.3
18.8
31.3
43.8
56.3
68.8
81.9
93.8
100.0
Back to top
Databases for unit cost items such as worker wage rates, equipment rental or material
prices. These databases can be used for any cost estimate required. If these rates change,
cost estimates can be rapidly re-computed after the databases are updated.
Databases of expected productivity for different components types, equiptment and
construction processes.
Import utilities from computer aided design software for automatic quantity-take-off of
components. Alternatively, special user interfaces may exist to enter geometric
descriptions of components to allow automatic quantity-take-off.
Export utilities to send estimates to cost control and scheduling software. This is very
helpful to begin the management of costs during construction.
Provisions for manual review, over-ride and editing of any cost element resulting from
the cost estimation system
Flexible reporting formats, including provisions for electronic reporting rather than
simply printing cost estimates on paper.
Archives of past projects to allow rapid cost-estimate updating or modification for similar
designs.
A typical process for developing a cost estimate using one of these systems would include:
1. If a similar design has already been estimated or exists in the company archive, the old
project information is retreived.
2. A cost engineer modifies, add or deletes components in the project information set. If a
similar project exists, many of the components may have few or no updates, thereby
saving time.
3. A cost estimate is calculated using the unit cost method of estimation. Productivities and
unit prices are retrieved from the system databases. Thus, the latest price information is
used for the cost estimate.
4. The cost estimation is summarized and reviewed for any errors.
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As suggested earlier in the discussion of the exponential rule for estimating, the value of the cost
exponent may influence the decision whether extra capacity should be built to accommodate
future growth. Similarly, the economy of scale may also influence the decision on rehabilitation
at a given time. As the rehabilitation work becomes extensive, it becomes a capital project with
all the implications of its own life cycle. Hence, the cost estimation of a rehabilitation project
may also involve capital and operating costs.
While deferring the discussion of the economic evaluation of constructed facilities to Chapter 6,
it is sufficient to point out that the stream of operating costs over time represents a series of costs
at different time periods which have different values with respect to the present. Consequently,
the cost data at different time periods must be converted to a common base line if meaningful
comparison is desired.
Example 5-17: Maintenance cost on a roadway [6]
Maintenance costs for constructed roadways tend to increase with both age and use of the
facility. As an example, the following empirical model was estimated for maintenance
expenditures on sections of the Ohio Turnpike:
C = 596 + 0.0019 V + 21.7 A
where C is the annual cost of routine maintenance per lane-mile (in 1967 dollars), V is the
volume of traffic on the roadway (measured in equivalent standard axle loads, ESAL, so that a
heavy truck is represented as equivalent to many automobiles), and A is the age of the pavement
in years since the last resurfacing. According to this model, routine maintenance costs will
increase each year as the pavement service deteriorates. In addition, maintenance costs increase
with additional pavement stress due to increased traffic or to heavier axle loads, as reflected in
the variable V.
For example, for V = 500,300 ESAL and A = 5 years, the annual cost of routine maintenance per
lane-mile is estimated to be:
C = 596 + (0.0019)(500,300) + (21.7)(5)
= 596 + 950.5 + 108.5 = 1,655 (in 1967 dollars)
Example 5-18: Time stream of costs over the life of a roadway [7]
The time stream of costs over the life of a roadway depends upon the intervals at which
rehabilitation is carried out. If the rehabilitation strategy and the traffic are known, the time
stream of costs can be estimated.
Using a life cycle model which predicts the economic life of highway pavement on the basis of
the effects of traffic and other factors, an optimal schedule for rehabilitation can be developed.
For example, a time stream of costs and resurfacing projects for one pavement section is shown
in Figure 5-11. As described in the previous example, the routine maintenance costs increase as
the pavement ages, but decline after each new resurfacing. As the pavement continues to age,
resurfacing becomes more frequent until the roadway is completely reconstructed at the end of
35 years.
Figure 5-11: Time Stream of Costs over the Life of a Highway Pavement
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5.14 References
1. Ahuja, H.N. and W.J. Campbell, Estimating: From Concept to Completion, Prentice-Hall,
Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1987.
2. Clark, F.D., and A.B. Lorenzoni, Applied Cost Engineering, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New
York, 1978.
3. Clark, J.E., Structural Concrete Cost Estimating, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, 1983.
4. Diekmann, J.R., "Probabilistic Estimating: Mathematics and Applications," ASCE
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 297-308.
5. Humphreys, K.K. (ed.) Project and Cost Engineers' Handbook (sponsored by American
Association of Cost Engineers), 2nd Ed., Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 1984.
6. Maevis, A.C., "Construction Cost Control by the Owners," ASCE Journal of the
Construction Division, Vol. 106, 1980, pp. 435-446.
7. Wohl, M. and C. Hendrickson, Transportation Investment and Pricing Principles, John
Wiley & Sons, New York, 1984.
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5.15 Problems
1. Suppose that the grouting method described in Example 5-2 is used to provide a grouting
seal beneath another landfill of 12 acres. The grout line is expected to be between 4.5 and
5.5 feet thickness. The voids in the soil layer are between 25% to 35%. Using the same
unit cost data (in 1978 dollars), find the range of costs in a screening estimate for the
grouting project.
2. To avoid submerging part of U.S. Route 40 south and east of Salt Lake City due to the
construction of the Jardinal Dam and Reservoir, 22 miles of highway were relocated to
the west around the site of the future reservoir. Three separate contracts were let,
including one covering 10 miles of the work which had an engineer's estimate of
$34,095,545. The bids were submitted on July 21, 1987 and the completion date of the
project under the contract was August 15, 1989. (See ENR, October 8, 1987, p. 34). The
three lowest bids were:
1) W.W. Clyde & Co., Springville, Utah
$21,384,919
2) Sletten Construction company, Great Falls, Montana $26,701,018
3) Gilbert Western Corporation, Salt Lake city, Utah
$30,896,203
3. Find the percentage of each of these bidders below the engineer's cost estimate.
4. In making a screening estimate of an industrial plant for the production of batteries, an
empirical formula based on data of a similar buildings completed before 1987 was
proposed:
C = (16,000)(Q + 50,000)1/2
where Q is the daily production capacity of batteries and C is the cost of the building in
1987 dollars. If a similar plant is planned for a daily production capacity of 200,000
batteries, find the screening estimate of the building in 1987 dollars.
5. For the cost factor K = $46,000 (in 1968 dollars) and m = 0.67 for an aerated lagoon
basin of a water treatment plant in Table 5-4 (Example 5-6), find the estimated cost of a
proposed new plant with a similar treatment process having a capacity of 480 million
gallons (in 1968 dollars). If another new plant was estimated to cost $160,000 by using
the same exponential rule, what would be the proposed capacity of that plant?
6. Using the cost data in Figure 5-5 (Example 5-11), find the total cost including overhead
and profit of excavating 90,000 cu.yd. of bulk material using a backhoe of 1.5 cu.yd.
capacity for a detailed estimate. Assume that the excavated material will be loaded onto
trucks for disposal.
7. The basic costs (labor, material and equipment) for various elements of a construction
project are given as follows:
Excavation
$240,000
Subgrade
$100,000
Base course
$420,000
Concrete pavement $640,000
Total
$1,400,000
8. Assuming that field supervision cost is 10% of the basic cost, and the general office
overhead is 5% of the direct costs (sum of the basic costs and field supervision cost), find
the prorated field supervision costs, general office overhead costs and total costs for the
various elements of the project.
9. In making a preliminary estimate of a chemical processing plant, several major types of
equipment are the most significant components in affecting the installation cost. The cost
of piping and other ancillary items for each type of equipment can often be expressed as a
percentage of that type of equipment for a given capacity. The standard costs for the
major equipment types for two plants with different daily production capacities are as
shown in Table 5-15. It has been established that the installation cost of all equipment for
a plant with daily production capacity between 150,000 bbl and 600,000 bbl can best be
estimated by using liner interpolation of the standard data. A new chemical processing
plant with a daily production capacity of 400,000 bbl is being planned. Assuming that all
other factors remain the same, estimate the cost of the new plant.
Table 5-15
Equipment type
Furnace
Tower
Drum
Pumps, etc.
$10,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
0.32
0.42
0.42
0.54
0.24
0.36
0.32
0.42
10. The total construction cost of a refinery with a production capacity of 100,000 bbl/day in
Caracas, Venezuela, completed in 1977 was $40 million. It was proposed that a similar
refinery with a production capacity of $160,000 bbl/day be built in New Orleans, LA for
completion in 1980. For the additional information given below, make a screening
estimate of the cost of the proposed plant.
1. In the total construction cost for the Caracus, Venezuela plant, there was an item
of $2 million for site preparation and travel which is not typical for similar plants.
2. The variation of sizes of the refineries can be approximated by the exponential
law with m = 0.6.
3. The inflation rate in U.S. dollars was approximately 9% per year from 1977 to
1980.
4. An adjustment factor of 1.40 was suggested for the project to account for the
increase of labor cost from Caracas, Venezuela to New Orleans, LA.
5. New air pollution equipment for the New Orleans, LA plant cost $4 million in
1980 dollars (not required for the Caracas plant).
6. The site condition at New Orleans required special piling foundation which cost
$2 million in 1980 dollars.
11. The total cost of a sewage treatment plant with a capacity of 50 million gallons per day
completed 1981 for a new town in Colorado was $4.5 million. It was proposed that a
similar treatment plant with a capacity of 80 million gallons per day be built in another
town in New Jersey for completion in 1985. For additional information given below,
make a screening estimate of the cost of the proposed plant.
1. In the total construction cost in Colorado, an item of $300,000 for site preparation
is not typical for similar plants.
2. The variation of sizes for this type of treatment plants can be approximated by the
exponential law with m = 0.5.
3. The inflation rate was approximately 5% per year from 1981 to 1985.
4. The locational indices of Colorado and New Jersey areas are 0.95 and 1.10,
respectively, against the national average of 1.00.
5. The installation of a special equipment to satisfy the new environmental standard
cost an extra $200,000 in 1985 dollar for the New Jersey plant.
6. The site condition in New Jersey required special foundation which cost $500,00
in 1985 dollars.
12. Using the ENR building cost index, estimate the 1985 cost of the grouting seal on a
landfill described in Example 5-2, including the most likely estimate and the range of
possible cost.
13. Using the unit prices in the bid of contractor 2 for the quantitites specified by the
engineer in Table 5-2 (Example 5-3), compute the total bid price of contractor 2 for the
roadway project including the expenditure on each item of work.
14. The rate of work progress in percent of completion per period of a construction project is
shown in Figure 5-13 in which 13 time periods have been assumed. The cases A, B and C
represent the normal mobilization time, rapid mobilization and slow mobilization for the
project, respectively. Calculate the value of work completed in cumulative percentage for
periods 1 through 13 for each of the cases A, B and C. Also plot the volume of work
completed versus time for these cases.
Figure 5-13
15. The rate of work progress in percent of completion per period of a construction project is
shown in Figure 5-14 in which 10 time periods have been assumed. The cases A, B and C
represent the rapid mobilization time, normal mobilization and slow mobilization for the
project, respectively. Calculate the value of work completed in cumulative percentage for
periods 1 through 10 for each of the cases A, B and C. Also plot the volume of work
completed versus time for these cases.
Figure 5-14
16. Suppose that the empirical model for estimating annual cost of routine maintenance in
Example 5-17 is applicable to sections of the Pennsylvania Turnpike in 1985 if the ENR
building cost index is applied to inflate the 1967 dollars. Estimate the annual cost of
maintenance per lane-mile of the tunrpike for which the traffic volume on the roadway is
750,000 ESAL and the age of the pavement is 4 years in 1985.
17. The initial construction cost for a electric rower line is known to be a function of the
cross-sectional area A (in cm2) and the length L (in kilometers). Let C1 be the unit cost of
construction (in dollars per cm3). Then, the initial construction cost P (in dollars) is given
by
P = C1AL(105)
The annual operating cost of the power line is assumed to be measured by the power loss.
The power loss S (in kwh) is known to be
Suppose that the power line is expected to last n years and the life cycle cost T of the
power line is equal to:
T = P + UK
where K is a discount factor depending on the useful life cycle n and the discount rate i
(to be explained in Chapter 6). In designing the power line, all quantitites are assumed to
be known except A which is to be determined. If the owner wants to minimize the life
cycle cost, find the best cross-sectional area A in terms of the known quantities.
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5.16 Footnotes
1. This example was adapted with permission from a paper, "Forecasting Industry Resources,"
presented by A.R. Crosby at the Institution of Chemical Engineers in London, November 4,
1981. (Back)
2. This example is adapted from a cost estimate in A.L. Tolman, A.P. Ballestero, W.W. Beck and
G.H. Emrich, Guidance Manual for Minimizing Pollution from Waste Disposal Sites, Municipal
Environmental Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinatti, Ohio,
1978. (Back)
3. See "Utah Interstate Forges On," ENR, July 2, 1987, p. 39.(Back)
4. This and the next example have been adapted from P.M. Berthouex, "Evaluating Economy of
Scale," Journal of the Water Pollution Control Federation, Vol. 44, No. 11, November 1972, pp.
2111-2118. (Back)
5. See H.T. Johnson and R.S. Kaplan, Relevance Lost: The Rise and Fall of Management
Accounting, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA 1987, p. 185. (Back)
6. This example is adapted from McNeil, S. and C. Hendrickson, "A Statistical Model of
Pavement Maintenance Expenditure," Transportation Research Record No. 846, 1982, pp. 71-76.
(Back)
7. This example is adapted from S. McNeil, Three Statistical Models of Road Management
Based on Turnpike Data, M.S. Thesis, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1981. (Back)
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Chapter 5
(Cost
Estimation)
Go To Chapter 7
(Financing of
Constructed
Facilities)
Economic Evaluation of
Facility Investments
Project Life Cycle and
Economic Feasibility
Basic Concepts of
Economic Evaluation
Costs and Benefits of a
Constructed Facility
Interest Rates and the Costs
of Capital
Investment Profit Measures
Methods of Economic
Evaluation
Depreciation and Tax
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Effects
Price Level Changes:
Inflation and Deflation
Uncertainty and Risk
Effects of Financing on
Project Selection
Combined Effects of
Operating and Financing Cash
Flows
Public versus Private
Ownership of Facilities
Economic Evaluation of
Different Forms of Ownership
References
Problems
In general, the MARR specified by the top management in a private firm reflects the opportunity
cost of capital of the firm, the market interest rates for lending and borrowing, and the risks
associated with investment opportunities. For public projects, the MARR is specified by a
government agency, such as the Office of Management and Budget or the Congress of the United
States. The public MARR thus specified reflects social and economic welfare considerations, and
is referred to as the social rate of discount.
Regardless of how the MARR is determined by an organization, the MARR specified for the
economic evaluation of investment proposals is critically important in determining whether any
investment proposal is worthwhile from the standpoint of the organization. Since the MARR of
an organization often cannot be determined accurately, it is advisable to use several values of the
MARR to assess the sensitivity of the potential of the project to variations of the MARR value.
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consumer surplus represent a direct benefit to members of the public. In many public projects, it
is difficult, impossible or impractical to charge for services received, so direct revenues equal
zero and all user benefits appear as consumers surplus. Examples are a park or roadways for
which entrance is free. As a second special category of public benefit, there may be external or
secondary beneficiaries of public projects, such as new jobs created and profits to private
suppliers. Estimating these secondary benefits is extremely difficult since resources devoted to
public projects might simply be displaced from private employment and thus represent no net
benefit.
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With these volatile interest rates, interest charges and the ultimate cost of projects are uncertain.
Organizations and institutional arrangements capable of dealing with this uncertainty and able to
respond to interest rate changes effectively would be quite valuable. For example, banks offer
both fixed rate and variable rate mortgages. An owner who wants to limit its own risk may
choose to take a fixed rate mortgage even though the ultimate interest charges may be higher. On
the other hand, an owner who chooses a variable rate mortgage will have to adjust its annual
interest charges according to the market interest rates.
In economic evaluation, a constant value of MARR over the planning horizon is often used to
simplify the calculations. The use of a constant value for MARR is justified on the ground of
long-term average of the cost of capital over the period of investment. If the benefits and costs
over time are expressed in constant dollars, the constant value for MARR represents the average
real interest rate anticipated over the planning horizon; if the benefits and costs over time are
expressed in then-current dollars, the constant value for MARR reflects the average market
interest rate anticipated over the planning horizon.
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benefits per unit of discounted costs of a project. It is sometimes referred to as the savings-toinvestment ratio (SIR) when the benefits are derived from the reduction of undesirable effects. Its
use also requires the choice of a planning horizon and a MARR. Since some savings may be
interpreted as a negative cost to be deducted from the denominator or as a positive benefit to be
added to the numerator of the ratio, the BCR or SIR is not an absolute numerical measure.
However, if the ratio of the present value of benefit to the present value of cost exceeds one, the
project is profitable irrespective of different interpretations of such benefits or costs.
4. Internal Rate of Return. The internal rate of return (IRR) is defined as the discount rate
which sets the net present value of a series of cash flows over the planning horizon equal to zero.
It is used as a profit measure since it has been identified as the "marginal efficiency of capital" or
the "rate of return over cost". The IRR gives the return of an investment when the capital is in
use as if the investment consists of a single outlay at the beginning and generates a stream of net
benefits afterwards. However, the IRR does not take into consideration the reinvestment
opportunities related to the timing and intensity of the outlays and returns at the intermediate
points over the planning horizon. For cash flows with two or more sign reversals of the cash
flows in any period, there may exist multiple values of IRR; in such cases, the multiple values
are subject to various interpretations.
5. Adjusted Internal Rate of Return. If the financing and reinvestment policies are
incorporated into the evaluation of a project, an adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) which
reflects such policies may be a useful indicator of profitability under restricted circumstances.
Because of the complexity of financing and reinvestment policies used by an organization over
the life of a project, the AIRR seldom can reflect the reality of actual cash flows. However, it
offers an approximate value of the yield on an investment for which two or more sign reversals
in the cash flows would result in multiple values of IRR. The adjusted internal rate of return is
usually calculated as the internal rate of return on the project cash flow modified so that all costs
are discounted to the present and all benefits are compounded to the end of the planning horizon.
6. Return on Investment. When an accountant reports income in each year of a multi-year
project, the stream of cash flows must be broken up into annual rates of return for those years.
The return on investment (ROI) as used by accountants usually means the accountant's rate of
return for each year of the project duration based on the ratio of the income (revenue less
depreciation) for each year and the undepreciated asset value (investment) for that same year.
Hence, the ROI is different from year to year, with a very low value at the early years and a high
value in the later years of the project.
7. Payback Period. The payback period (PBP) refers to the length of time within which the
benefits received from an investment can repay the costs incurred during the time in question
while ignoring the remaining time periods in the planning horizon. Even the discounted payback
period indicating the "capital recovery period" does not reflect the magnitude or direction of the
cash flows in the remaining periods. However, if a project is found to be profitable by other
measures, the payback period can be used as a secondary measure of the financing requirements
for a project.
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(6.2)
(6.3)
where the symbol (P|F,i,t) is a discount factor equal to (1+i)-t and reads as follows: "To find the
present value P, given the future value F=1, discounted at an annual discount rate i over a period
of t years." When the benefit or cost in year t is multiplied by this factor, the present value is
obtained. Then, the net present value of the project x is calculated as:
(6.4)
or
(6.5)
If there is no budget constraint, then all independent projects having net present values greater
than or equal to zero are acceptable. That is, project x is acceptable as long as
(6.6)
For mutually exclusive proposals (x = 1,2,...,m), a proposal j should be selected if it has the
maximum nonnegative net present value among all m proposals, i.e.
(6.7)
provided that NPVj
0.
(6.9)
where the symbol (U|P,i,n) is referred to as the capital recovery factor and reads as follows: "To
find the equivalent annual uniform amount U, given the present value P=1, discounted at an
annual discount rate i over a period of t years." Hence, if NPVx 0, it follows that NUVx 0,
and vice versa.
(6.10)
However, a project with the maximum benefit-cost ratio among a group of mutually exclusive
proposals generally does not necessarily lead to the maximum net benefit. Consequently, it is
necessary to perform incremental analysis through pairwise comparisons of such proposals in
selecting the best in the group. In effect, pairwise comparisons are used to determine if
incremental increases in costs between projects yields larger incremental increases in benefits.
This approach is not recommended for use in selecting the best among mutually exclusive
proposals.
recommended for use either in accepting independent projects or in selecting the best among
mutually exclusive proposals.
Example 6-1: Evaluation of Four Independent Projects
The cash flow profiles of four independent projects are shown in Table 6-1. Using a MARR of
20%, determine the acceptability of each of the projects on the basis of the net present value
criterion for accepting independent projects.
TABLE 6-1 Cash Flow Profiles of Four Independent Projects (in $ million)
t
At,1
At,2
At,3
At,4
0
1
2
3
4
5
-77.0
0
0
0
0
235.0
-75.3
28.0
28.0
28.0
28.0
28.0
-39.9
28.0
28.0
28.0
28.0
-80.0
18.0
10.0
-40.0
-60.0
30.0
50.0
Using i = 20%, we can compute NPV for x = 1, 2, 3, and 4 from Eq. (6.5). Then, the
acceptability of each project can be determined from Eq. (6.6). Thus,
[NPV1]20% = -77 + (235)(P|F, 20%, 5) = -77 + 94.4 = 17.4
[NPV2]20% = -75.3 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 5) = -75.3 + 83.7 = 8.4
[NPV3]20% = -39.9 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 4) - (80)(P|F, 20%, 5)
= -39.9 + 72.5 - 32.2 = 0.4
[NPV4]20% = 18 + (10)(P|F, 20%, 1) - (40)(P|F, 20%, 2)
- (60)(P|F, 20%, 3) + (30)(P|F, 20%, 4) + (50)(P|F, 20%, 5)
= 18 + 8.3 - 27.8 - 34.7 + 14.5 + 20.1 = -1.6
Hence, the first three independent projects are acceptable, but the last project should be rejected.
It is interesting to note that if the four projects are mutually exclusive, the net present value
method can still be used to evaluate the projects and, according to Eq. (6.7), the project (x = 1)
which has the highest positive NPV should be selected. The use of the net equivalent uniform
annual value or the net future value method will lead to the same conclusion. However, the
project with the highest benefit-cost ratio is not necessarily the best choice among a group of
mutually exclusive alternatives. Furthermore, the conventional internal rate of return method
cannot be used to make a meaningful evaluation of these projects as the IRR for both x=1 and
x=2 are found to be 25% while multiple values of IRR exist for both the x=3 and x=4
alternatives.
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For private corporations, the cash flow profile of a project is affected by the amount of taxation.
In the context of tax liability, depreciation is the amount allowed as a deduction due to capital
expenses in computing taxable income and, hence, income tax in any year. Thus, depreciation
results in a reduction in tax liabilities.
It is important to differentiate between the estimated useful life used in depreciation
computations and the actual useful life of a facility. The former is often an arbitrary length of
time, specified in the regulations of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service or a comparable
organization. The depreciation allowance is a bookkeeping entry that does not involve an outlay
of cash, but represents a systematic allocation of the cost of a physical facility over time.
There are various methods of computing depreciation which are acceptable to the U.S. Internal
Revenue Service. The different methods of computing depreciation have different effects on the
streams of annual depreciation charges, and hence on the stream of taxable income and taxes
paid. Let P be the cost of an asset, S its estimated salvage value, and N the estimated useful life
(depreciable life) in years. Furthermore, let Dt denote the depreciation amount in year t, Tt denote
the accumulated depreciation up to year t, and Bt denote the book value of the asset at the end of
year t, where t=1,2,..., or n refers to the particular year under consideration. Then,
(6.11)
and
(6.12)
The depreciation methods most commonly used to compute Dt and Bt are the straight line
method, sum-of-the-years'-digits methods, and the double declining balanced method. The U.S.
Internal Revenue Service provides tables of acceptable depreciable schedules using these
methods. Under straight line depreciation, the net depreciable value resulting from the cost of the
facility less salvage value is allocated uniformly to each year of the estimated useful life. Under
the sum-of-the-year's-digits (SOYD) method, the annual depreciation allowance is obtained by
multiplying the net depreciable value multiplied by a fraction, which has as its numerator the
number of years of remaining useful life and its denominator the sum of all the digits from 1 to n.
The annual depreciation allowance under the double declining balance method is obtained by
multiplying the book value of the previous year by a constant depreciation rate 2/n.
To consider tax effects in project evaluation, the most direct approach is to estimate the after-tax
cash flow and then apply an evaluation method such as the net present value method. Since
projects are often financed by internal funds representing the overall equity-debt mix of the
entire corporation, the deductibility of interest on debt may be considered on a corporate-wide
basis. For specific project financing from internal funds, let after-tax cash flow in year t be Yt.
Then, for t=0,1,2,...,n,
(6.13)
where At is the net revenue before tax in year t, Dt is the depreciation allowable for year t and Xt
is the marginal corporate income tax rate in year t.
Besides corporate income taxes, there are other provisions in the federal income tax laws that
affect facility investments, such as tax credits for low-income housing. Since the tax laws are
revised periodically, the estimation of tax liability in the future can only be approximate.
Example 6-2: Effects of Taxes on Investment
A company plans to invest $55,000 in a piece of equipment which is expected to produce a
uniform annual net revenue before tax of $15,000 over the next five years. The equipment has a
salvage value of $5,000 at the end of 5 years and the depreciation allowance is computed on the
basis of the straight line depreciation method. The marginal income tax rate for this company is
34%, and there is no expectation of inflation. If the after-tax MARR specified by the company is
8%, determine whether the proposed investment is worthwhile, assuming that the investment will
be financed by internal funds.
Using Equations (6.11) and (6.13), the after-tax cash flow can be computed as shown in Table 62. Then, the net present value discounted at 8% is obtained from Equation (6.5) as follows:
Before-tax Cash
Flow
At
0
1-5 each
5 only
- $55,000
+ $15,000
+ $5,000
Straight-line
Depreciation
Dt
$10,000
Taxable
Income
At-Dt
$5,000
Income
Tax
Xt(At-Dt)
$1,700
After-Tax CashFlow
Yt
- $55,000
+ $13,300
+ $5,000
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dollars, and a discount rate excluding inflation should be used in computing the net
present value.
2. The inflated dollar approach. The investor includes an inflation component in the
specified MARR. Hence, the cash flows should be expressed in terms of then-current or
inflated dollars, and a discount rate including inflation should be used in computing the
net present value.
If these approaches are applied correctly, they will lead to identical results.
Let i be the discount rate excluding inflation, i' be the discount rate including inflation, and j be
the annual inflation rate. Then,
(6.14)
and
(6.15)
(6.17)
or
(6.18)
It can be shown that the results from these two equations are identical. Furthermore, the
relationship applies to after-tax cash flow as well as to before-tax cash flow by replacing At and
A't with Yt and Y't respectively in Equations (6.17) and (6.18).
Example 6-3: Effects of Inflation
Suppose that, in the previous example, the inflation expectation is 5% per year, and the after-tax
MARR specified by the company is 8% excluding inflation. Determine whether the investment is
worthwhile.
In this case, the before-tax cash flow At in terms of constant dollars at base year 0 is inflated at j
= 5% to then-current dollars A't for the computation of the taxable income (A't - Dt) and income
taxes. The resulting after-tax flow Y't in terms of then-current dollars is converted back to
constant dollars. That is, for Xt = 34% and Dt = $10,000. The annual depreciation charges Dt are
not inflated to current dollars in conformity with the practice recommended by the U.S. Internal
Revenue Service. Thus:
A't = At(1 + j)t = At(1 + 0.05)t
Y't = A't - Xt(A't - Dt) = A't - (34%)(A't - $10,000)
Yt = Y't(1 + j)t = Y't(1 + 0.05)t
The detailed computation of the after-tax cash flow is recorded in Table 6-3. The net present
value discounted at 8% excluding inflation is obtained by substituting Yt for At in Eq. (6.17).
Hence,
[NPV]8%) = -55,000 + (13,138)(P|F, 8%, 1) + (12,985)(P|F, 8%, 2) + (12,837)(P|F, 8%, 3)
+ (12,697)(P|F, 8%, 4) + (12,564 + 5,000)(P|F, 8%, 5) = -$227
With 5% inflation, the investment is no longer worthwhile because the value of the depreciation
tax deduction is not increased to match the inflation rate.
TABLE 6-3 After-Tax Cash Flow Including Inflation
Current $ depreciation
Dt Current $ after depreciation
-$55,000 +$55,000
+15,000 +15,750
+15,000
16,540
+15,000
17,365
$10,000
10,000
10,000
$5,750
6,540
7,365
$1,955
2,224
2,504
-$55,000
+13,795
+14,316
+14,861
-$55,000
+13,138
+12,985
+12,837
4
5
5 Const
ant $ BTax
CF
At Curr
ent $ BTax
CF
A't
+15,000
+15,000
+5,000
18,233
19,145
10,000
10,000
8,233
9,145
2,799
3,109
+15,434
+16,036
+12,697
+12,564
+5,000
Price Index
1982 $
Price Index
2002 $
1982
1983
1984
1985
100
104
111
118
53
55
59
62
Project Expenses
($ M)
Project Expenses
(1982 $ M)
Project Expenses
(2002 $ M)
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
122
123
130
134
140
144
146
154
165
165
165
175
172
176
181
183
189
195
202
208
215
65
65
69
71
74
76
77
82
88
88
87
93
91
94
96
97
100
103
107
110
114
Sum
33,000
82,000
131,000
164,000
214,000
197,000
246,000
574,000
854,000
852,000
764,000
1,206,000
1,470,000
1,523,000
1,329,000
1,246,000
1,272,000
1,115,000
779,000
441,000
133,000
27,000
67,000
101,000
122,000
153,000
137,000
169,000
372,000
517,000
515,000
464,000
687,000
853,000
863,000
735,000
682,000
674,000
572,000
386,000
212,000
62,000
51,000
126,000
190,000
230,000
289,000
258,000
318,000
703,000
975,000
973,000
877,000
1,297,000
1,609,000
1,629,000
1,387,000
1,288,000
1,272,000
1,079,000
729,000
399,000
117,000
14,625,000
8,370,000
15,797,000
Back to top
(6.19)
and
(6.20)
where q = 1,....,m represents possible events, (Bt|q) and (Ct|q) are benefits and costs respectively in
period t due to the occurrence of q, Pr{q} is the probability that q occurs, and E[Bt] and E[Ct] are
respectively expected benefit and cost in period t. Hence, the expected net benefit in period t is
given by:
(6.21)
For example, the average cost of a facility in an earthquake prone site might be calculated as the
sum of the cost of operation under normal conditions (multiplied by the probability of no
earthquake) plus the cost of operation after an earthquake (multiplied by the probability of an
earthquake). Expected benefits and costs can be used directly in the cash flow calculations
described earlier.
In formulating objectives, some organizations wish to avoid risk so as to avoid the possibility of
losses. In effect, a risk avoiding organization might select a project with lower expected profit or
net social benefit as long as it had a lower risk of losses. This preference results in a risk
premium or higher desired profit for risky projects. A rough method of representing a risk
premium is to make the desired MARR higher for risky projects. Let rf be the risk free market
rate of interest as represented by the average rate of return of a safe investment such as U.S.
government bonds. However, U.S. government bonds do not protect from inflationary changes or
exchange rate fluctuations, but only insure that the principal and interest will be repaid. Let rp be
the risk premium reflecting an adjustment of the rate of return for the perceived risk. Then, the
risk-adjusted rate of return r is given by:
(6.22)
In using the risk-adjusted rate of return r to compute the net present value of an estimated net
cash flow At (t = 0, 1, 2, ..., n) over n years, it is tacitly assumed that the values of At become
more uncertain as time goes on. That is:
(6.23)
More directly, a decision maker may be confronted with the subject choice among alternatives
with different expected benefits of levels of risk such that at a given period t, the decision maker
is willing to exchange an uncertain At with a smaller but certain return atAt where at is less than
one. Consider the decision tree in Figure 6-2 in which the decision maker is confronted with a
choice between the certain return of atAt and a gamble with possible outcomes (At;)q and
respective probabilities Pr{q} for q = 1,2,...,m. Then, the net present value for the series of
"certainty equivalents" over n years may be computed on the basis of the risk free rate. Hence:
(6.24)
As a general rule, it is advisable to borrow as little as possible when borrowing rates exceed the
minimum attractive rate of return. Equity or pay-as-you-go financing may be desirable in this
case. It is generally preferable to obtain lower borrowing rates, unless borrowing associated with
lower rates requires substantial transaction costs or reduces the flexibility for repayment and
refinancing. In the public sector, it may be that increasing taxes or user charges to reduce
borrowing involves economic costs in excess of the benefits of reduced borrowing costs of
borrowed funds. Furthermore, since cash flow analysis is typically conducted on the basis of
constant dollars and loan agreements are made with respect to current dollars, removing the
effects of inflation will reduce the cost of borrowing. Finally, deferring investments until pay-asyou-go or equity financing are available may unduly defer the benefits of new investments.
It is difficult to conclude unambiguously that one financing mechanism is always superior to
others. Consequently, evaluating alternative financing mechanisms is an important component of
the investment analysis procedure. One possible approach to simultaneously considering design
and financing alternatives is to consider each combination of design and financing options as a
specific, mutually exclusive alternative. The cash flow of this combined alternative would be the
sum of the economic or operating cash flow (assuming equity financing) and the financial cash
flow over the planning horizon.
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(6.26)
Similarly, let
and YYt be the corresponding cash flows after tax such that:
(6.27)
The tax shields for interest on borrowing (for t = 1, 2, ..., n) are usually given by
(6.28)
where It is the interest paid in year t and Xt is the marginal corporate income tax rate in year t. In
view of Eqs. (6.13), (6.27) and (6.28), we obtain
(6.29)
When MARR = i is applied to both the operating and the financial cash flows in Eqs. (6.13) and
(6.28), respectively, in computing the net present values, the combined effect will be the same as
the net present value obtained by applying MARR = i to the combined cash flow in Eq. (6.29).
In many instances, a risk premium related to the specified type of operation is added to the
MARR for discounting the operating cash flow. On the other hand, the MARR for discounting
the financial cash flow for borrowing is often regarded as relatively risk-free because debtors or
holders of corporate bonds must be paid first before stockholders in case financial difficulties are
encountered by a corporation. Then, the adjusted net present value is given by
(6.30)
where NPV is discounted at r and FPV is obtained from the rf rate. Note that the net present value
of the financial cash flow includes not only tax shields for interest on loans and other forms of
government subsidy, but also on transactions costs such as those for legal and financial services
associated with issuing new bonds or stocks.
The evaluation of combined alternatives based on the adjusted net present value method should
also be performed in dollar amounts which either consistently include or remove the effects of
inflation. The MARR value used would reflect the inclusion or exclusion of inflation
accordingly. Furthermore, it is preferable to use after-tax cash flows in the evaluation of projects
for private firms since different designs and financing alternatives are likely to have quite
different implications for tax liabilities and tax shields.
In theory, the corporate finance process does not necessarily require a different approach than
that of the APV method discussed above. Rather than considering single projects in isolation,
groups or sets of projects along with financing alternatives can be evaluated. The evaluation
process would be to select that group of operating and financing plans which has the highest total
APV. Unfortunately, the number of possible combinations to evaluate can become very large
even though many combinations can be rapidly eliminated in practice because they are clearly
inferior. More commonly, heuristic approaches are developed such as choosing projects with the
highest benefit/cost ratio within a particular budget or financial constraint. These heuristic
schemes will often involve the separation of the financing and design alternative evaluation. The
typical result is design-driven or finance-driven planning in which one or the other process is
conducted first.
Example 6-5: Combined Effects of Operating and Financing Plans
A public agency plans to construct a facility and is considering two design alternatives with
different capacities. The operating net cash flows for both alternatives over a planning horizon of
5 years are shown in Table 6-4. For each design alternative, the project can be financed either
through overdraft on bank credit or by issuing bonds spanning over the 5-year period, and the
cash flow for each financing alternative is also shown in Table 6-4. The public agency has
specified a MARR of 10% for discounting the operating and financing cash flows for this
project. Determine the best combination of design and financing plan if
(a) a design is selected before financing plans are considered, or
(b) the decision is made simultaneously rather than sequentially.
The net present values (NPV) of all cash flows can be computed by Eq.(6.5), and the results are
given at the bottom of Table 6-4. The adjusted net present value (APV) combining the operating
cash flow of each design and an appropriate financing is obtained according to Eq. (6.25), and
the results are also tabulated at the bottom of Table 6-4.
Under condition (a), design alternative 2 will be selected since NPV = $767,000 is the higher
value when only operating cash flows are considered. Subsequently, bonds financing will be
chosen because APV = $466,000 indicates that it is the best financing plan for design alternative
2.
Under condition (b), however, the choice will be based on the highest value of APV, i.e., APV =
$484,000 for design alternative one in combination will overdraft financing. Thus, the
simultaneous decision approach will yield the best results.
TABLE 6-5 Illustration of Different Design and Financing Alternatives (in $ thousands)
Design Alternative One
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV or
FPV at
10%
APV =
NPV +
FPV
Operating
Cash Flow
Overdraft
Financing
Bond
Financing
Operating
Cash Flow
Overdraft
Financing
Bond
Financing
-$1,000
-2,500
1,000
1,500
1,500
1,700
$1,000
2,500
-1,000
-1,500
-1,500
-921
$3,653
-418
-418
-418
-418
-4,217
$-2,500
-1,000
1,000
1,500
1,500
1,930
$2,500
1,000
-1,000
-1,500
-1,500
-1,254
$3,805
-435
-435
-435
-435
-4,392
761
-277
-290
767
-347
-301
484
471
420
466
Back to top
agencies. The MARR represents the desired return or profit for making capital investments.
Furthermore, private firms often must pay a higher interest rate for borrowing than public
agencies because of the tax exempt or otherwise subsidized bonds available to public agencies.
International loans also offer subsidized interest rates to qualified agencies or projects in many
cases. With higher required rates of return, we expect that private firms will require greater
receipts than would a public agency to make a particular investment desirable.
In addition to different minimum attractive rates of return, there is also an important distinction
between public and private organizations with respect to their evaluation of investment benefits.
For private firms, the returns and benefits to cover costs and provide profit are monetary
revenues. In contrast, public agencies often consider total social benefits in evaluating projects.
Total social benefits include monetary user payments plus users' surplus (e.g., the value received
less costs incurred by users), external benefits (e.g., benefits to local businesses or property
owners) and nonquantifiable factors (e.g., psychological support, unemployment relief, etc.).
Generally, total social benefits will exceed monetary revenues.
While these different valuations of benefits may lead to radically different results with respect to
the extent of benefits associated with an investment, they do not necessarily require public
agencies to undertake such investments directly. First, many public enterprises must fund their
investments and operating expenses from user fees. Most public utilities fall into this category,
and the importance of user fee financing is increasing for many civil works such as waterways.
With user fee financing, the required returns for the public and private firms to undertake the
aforementioned investment are, in fact, limited to monetary revenues. As a second point, it is
always possible for a public agency to contract with a private firm to undertake a particular
project.
All other things being equal, we expect that private firms will require larger returns from a
particular investment than would a public agency. From the users or taxpayers point of view, this
implies that total payments would be higher to private firms for identical services. However,
there are a number of mitigating factors to counterbalance this disadvantage for private firms.
Another form of relief in tax liability is the tax credit which allows a direct deduction for income
tax purposes of a small percentage of the value of certain newly acquired assets. Although the
provisions for investment tax credit for physical facilities and equipment had been introduced at
different times in the US federal tax code, they were eliminated in the 1986 Tax Reformation Act
except a tax credit for low-income housing.
Of course, a firm must have profits to take direct advantage of such tax shields, i.e., tax
deductions only reduce tax liabilities if before-tax profits exist. In many cases, investments in
constructed facilities have net outlays or losses in the early years of construction. Generally,
these losses in early years can be offset against profits occurred elsewhere or later in time.
Without such offsetting profits, losses can be carried forward by the firm or merged with other
firms' profits, but these mechanisms will not be reviewed here.
(6.31)
Then, a project is acceptable if NPV 0. When the annual gross receipt is uniform, i.e., Bt = B
for t = 1, 2, ..., n and B0 = 0, then, for NPV = 0:
(6.32)
Thus, the minimum uniform annual gross receipt B which makes the project economically
acceptable can be determined from Equation (6.32), once the acquisition and operation costs Ct
of the facility are known and the MARR is specified.
Example 6-6: Different MARRs for Public and Private Organizations
For the facility cost stream of a potential investment with n = 7 in Table 6-5, the required
uniform annual gross receipts B are different for public and private ownerships since these two
types of organizations usually choose different values of MARR. With a given value of MARR =
i in each case, the value of B can be obtained from Eq. (6.32). With a MARR of 10%, a public
agency requires at least B = $184,000. By contrast, a private firm using a 20% MARR before tax
while neglecting other effects such as depreciation and tax deduction would require at least B =
$219,000. Then, according to Eq. (6.31), the gross receipt streams for both public and private
ownerships in Table 6-5 will satisfy the condition NPV = 0 when each of them is netted from the
cost stream and discounted at the appropriate value of MARR, i.e., 10% for a public agency and
20% (before tax) for a private firm. Thus, this case suggests that public provision of the facility
has lower user costs.
TABLE 6-6 Required Uniform Annual Gross Receipts for Public and Private
Ownership of a Facility (in $ thousands)
Public Ownership
Year t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Private Ownership
$0
184
184
184
184
184
184
184
-$500
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
$0
219
219
219
219
219
219
219
-$500
143
141
139
137
135
133
131
Example 6-7: Effects of Depreciation and Tax Shields for Private Firms
Using the same data as in Example 6-6, we now consider the effects of depreciation and tax
deduction for private firms. Suppose that the marginal tax rate of the firm is 34% in each year of
operation, and losses can always be offset by company-wide profits. Suppose further that the
salvage value of the facility is zero at the end of seven years so that the entire amount of cost can
be depreciated by means of the sum-of-the-years'-digits (SOYD) method. Thus, for the sum of
digits 1 through 7 equal to 28, the depreciation allowances for years 1 to 7 are respectively 7/28,
6/28, ..., 1/28 of the total depreciable value of $ 500,000, and the results are recorded in column
3 of Table 6-6. For a uniform annual gross receipt B = $219,000, the net receipt before tax in
Column 6 of Table 6-5 in Example 6-5 can be used as the starting point for computing the aftertax cash flow according to Equation (6.13) which is carried out step-by-step in Table 6-6. (Dollar
amounts are given to the nearest $1,000). By trial and error, it is found that an after-tax MARR =
14.5% will produce a zero value for the net present value of the discounted after-tax flow at t =
0. In other words, the required uniform annual gross receipt for this project at 14.5% MARR
after tax is also B = $219,000. It means that the MARR of this private firm must specify a 20%
MARR before tax in order to receive the equivalent of 14.5% MARR after tax.
TABLE6-7 Effects of Depreciation and Tax Deductions for Private
Ownership in a Facility (in $ thousands)
Net
Income
Receipt Depreciation Taxable
Tax
Before-tax (SOYD)
Income Xt(At Year t
At
Dt
(At - Dt)
Dt)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-$500
143
141
139
137
135
133
131
$0
125
107
89
71
54
36
18
$0
18
34
50
66
81
97
113
$0
6
12
17
22
28
33
38
After-tax
Cash Flow
<="" height="26"
width="25">
-$500
137
129
122
115
107
100
93
To the net receipt At in Column 4 of Table 6-7, which has been obtained from a uniform annual
gross receipt of $190,000, we add the financial cash flow
, which included a loan of
$400,000 with an annual repayment of $88,000 corresponding to an interest rate of 12%. Then
the resulting combined cash flow AAt as computed according to Equation (6.26) is shown in
column 6 of Table 6-7. Note that for a loan at 12% interest, the net present value of the combined
cash flow AAt is zero when discounted at a 10% MARR for the public agency. This is not a
coincidence, but several values of B have been tried until B = $190,000 is found to satisfy NPV
= 0 at 10% MARR. Hence, the minimum required uniform annual gross receipt is B = $190,000.
TABLE 6-8 Effects of Borrowing on a Publicly Owned Facility (in $
thousands)
Gross Facility Net receipt Loan and payment Combined cash flow
(12% interest)
Year receipt cost
(no loan)
(12% interest)
t
Bt
Ct
At
AAt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
$0
190
190
190
190
190
190
190
$500
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
-$500
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
+$400
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
-$100
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
Example 6-9: Effects of Leverage and Tax Shields for Private Organizations
Suppose that the uniform annual gross receipt for a private firm is also B = $190,000 (the same
as that for the public agency in Example 6-7). The salvage value of the facility is zero at the end
of seven years so that the entire amount of cost can be depreciated by means of the sum-of-theyears'-digit (SOYD) method. The marginal tax rate of the firm is 34% in each year of operation,
and losses can always be offset by company-wide profits. Suppose further that the firm must
borrow $400,000 (80% of the facility cost) at a 12% annual interest, resulting in an annual
uniform payment of $88,000 for the subsequent seven years. The interest charge each year can be
computed as 12% of the remaining balance of the loan in the previous year, and the interest
charge is deductible from the tax liability.
For B = $190,000 and a facility cost stream identical to that in Example 6-7, the net receipts
before tax At (operating cash flow with no loan) in Table 6-7 can be used as the starting point for
analyzing the effects of financial leverage through borrowing. Thus, column 4 of Table 6-7 is
reproduced in column 2 of Table 6-8.
The computation of the after-tax cash flow of the private firm including the effects of tax shields
for interest is carried out in Table 6-8. The financial - cash stream
in Column 4 of Table 6-8
indicates a loan of $400,000 which is secured at t = 0 for an annual interest of 12%, and results in
a series of uniform annual payments of $88,000 in order to repay the principal and interest. The
levered after-tax cash flow YYt can be obtained by Eq. (6.29), using the same investment credit,
depreciation method and tax rate, and is recorded in Column 7 of Table 6-8. Since the net present
value of YYt in Column 7 of Table 6-8 discounted at 14.5% happens to be zero, the minimum
required uniform annual gross receipt for the potential investment is $190,000. By borrowing
$400,000 (80% of the facility cost) at 12% annual interest, the investment becomes more
attractive to the private firm. This is expected because of the tax shield for the interest and the
12% borrowing rate which is lower than the 14.5% MARR after-tax for the firm.
TABLE 6-9 Effects of Financial Leverage and Tax Shields on Private
Ownership of a Facility (in $ thousands)
Net
Receipt
Income
Loan
and
Before
Tax
After Tax
Tax
Depreciation Scheduled Interest (34% rate) Cash Flow
Payment On Loan X (A - D - (levered)
Year (no loan)
(SOYD)
t
t
t
t
At
Dt
It
It )
YYt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-$500
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
$0
125
107
89
71
54
36
18
$400
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
-88
$0
48
43
38
32
25
18
9
$0
-19
-13
-6
2
9
17
26
-$100
45
37
28
18
9
-1
-12
Financial
arrangement
Minimum benefit
required
Public, no tax
(MARR = 10%)
No loan
80% loan at 12% interest
$184,000
190,000
No loan
219,000
219,000
No loan
80% loan at 12% interest
219,000
190,000
Back to top
6.14 References
1. Au, T., "Profit Measures and Methods of Economic Analysis for Capital Project
Selection," ASCE Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1988.
2. Au, T. and T. P. Au, Engineering Economics for Capital Investment Analysis, Allyn and
Bacon, Newton, MA, 1983.
3. Bierman, H., Jr., and S. Smidt, The Capital Budgeting Decision, 5th Ed., Macmillan, New
York, 1984.
4. Brealey, R. and S. Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance, Second Edition, McGrawHill, New York, 1984.
5. Edwards, W.C. and J.F. Wong, "A Computer Model to Estimate Capital and Operating
Costs," Cost Engineering, Vol. 29, No. 10, 1987, pp. 15-21.
6. Hendrickson, C. and T. Au, "Private versus Public Ownership of Constructed Facilities,"
ASCE Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1985, pp. 119-131.
7. Wohl, M. and C. Hendrickson, Transportation Investment and Pricing Principles, John
Wiley, New York, 1984.
Back to top
6.15 Problems
1. The Salisbury Corporation is considering four mutually exclusive alternatives for a major
capital investment project. All alternatives have a useful life of 10 years with no salvage
value at the end. Straight line depreciation will be used. The corporation pays federal and
state tax at a rate of 34%, and expects an after-tax MARR of 10%. Determine which
alternative should be selected, using the NPV method.
Before-tax uniform
Initial cost annual net benefits
Alternatives ($million)
($million)
1
2
3
4
$4.0
3.5
3.0
3.7
$1.5
1.1
1.0
1.3
2.
3. The operating cash flow for the acquisition and maintenance of a clamshell for
excavation is given by At in the table below. Three financing plans, each charging a
borrowing rate of 8% but having a different method of - repayment, are represented by
three different cash flows of
. Find the net present value for each of the three
combined cash flows AAt for operating and financing if the MARR is specified to be 8%.
Year Operating
t
Financing
(a)
(b)
(c)
$40,000
-13,200
-12,400
-11,600
-10,800
0
4.
5. Find the net present value for each of the three cases in Problem 2 if the MARR is
specified to be
(a) 5%
(b) 10%.
6. Suppose the clamshell in Problem 2 is purchased by a private firm which pays corporate
taxes at a rate of 34%. Depreciation is based on the straight line method with no salvage
value at the end of five years. If the after-tax MARR of the firm is 8%, find the net
present value for each of the combined cash flows for operating and financing, including
the interest deduction. The interest payments included in the annual repayments of each
of the loans are 8% times the unpaid principal in each year, with the following values:
Year (t) (a)
1
2
3
4
5
$800
664
516
357
185
(b)
(c)
$3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
$3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
7.
8. An investment in a hauler will cost $40,000 and have no salvage value at the end of 5
years. The hauler will generate a gross income of $12,000 per year, but its operating cost
will be $2,000 during the first year, increasing by $500 per year until it reaches $5,000 in
the fifth year. The straight line depreciation method is used. The tax rate is 34% and the
after-tax MARR is 10%. Determine the net present value of the hauler purchase for a five
year planning horizon.
9. The Bailey Construction Company is considering the purchase of a diesel power shovel
to improve its productivity. The shovel, which costs $80,000, is expected to produce a
before-tax benefit of $36,000 in the first year, and $4,000 less in each succeeding year for
a total of five years (i.e., before tax benefit of $32,000 in the second year, $28,000 in the
third year, continuing to $20,000 in the fifth year). The salvage value of the equipment
will be $5,000 at the end of 5 years. The firm uses the sum-of-years'-digits depreciation
for the equipment and has an annual tax rate of 34%. If the MARR after tax is 10%, is the
purchase worthwhile?
10. The ABC Corporation is considering the purchase of a number of pipe-laying machines
in order to facilitate the operation in a new pipeline project expected to last six years.
Each machine will cost $26,000 and will have no salvage value after the project is
complete. The firm uses the straight line depreciation method and pays annual income
taxes on profits at the rate of 34%. If the firm's MARR is 8%, which is the minimum
uniform annual benefit before tax that must be generated by this machine in order to
justify its purchase?
11. The Springdale Corporation plans to purchase a demolition and wrecking machine to
save labor costs. The machine costs $60,000 and has a salvage value of $10,000 at the
end of 5 years. The machine is expected to be in operation for 5 years, and it will be
depreciated by the straight line method up to the salvage value. The corporation specifies
an after-tax MARR including inflation of 10% and has an income tax rate of 34%. The
annual inflation rate is expected to be 5% during the next 5 years. If the uniform annual
net benefit before tax in terms of base-year dollars for the next 5 years is $20,000, is the
new investment worthwhile?
12. XYZ Company plans to invest $2 million in a new plant which is expected to produce a
uniform annual net benefit before tax of $600,000 in terms of the base-year dollars over
the next 6 years. The plant has a salvage value of $250,000 at the end of 6 years and the
depreciation allowance is based on the straight line depreciation method. The corporate
tax rate is 34%, and the after-tax MARR specified by the firm is 10% excluding inflation.
If the annual inflation rate during the next 6 years is expected to be 5%, determine
whether the investment is worthwhile.
13. A sewage treatment plant is being planned by a public authority. Two proposed designs
require initial and annual maintenance costs as shown below.
Year
t
0
1-16(each)
900
180
14. Both designs will last 16 years with no salvage value. The federal government will
subsidize 50% of the initial capital cost, and the state government has a policy to
subsidize 10% of the annual maintenance cost. The local community intends to obtain a
loan to finance 30% of the initial capital cost at a borrowing rate of 10% with sixteen
equal annual payments including principal and interest. The MARR for this type of
project is 12% reflecting its operating risk. What is the uniform annual revenue that must
be collected in the next 16 years to make each of the two designs worthwhile from the
view of the local authority? Which design has lower cost from this perspective?
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Go Up to Table of Contents
Go To Chapter
6
(Economic
Evaluation of
Facility
Investments)
Go To Chapter
8
(Construction
Pricing and
Contracting)
Financing of Constructed
Facilities
The Financing Problem
Institutional Arrangements
for Facility Financing
Evaluation of Alternative
Financing Plans
Secured Loans with Bonds,
Notes and Mortgages
Overdraft Accounts
Refinancing of Debts
Project versus Corporate
Finance
Shifting Financial Burdens
Construction Financing for
Contractors
Effects of Other Factors on a
Contractor's Profits
References
Problems
Footnotes
large. For these reasons, attention to project finance is an important aspect of project
management. Finance is also a concern to the other organizations involved in a project such as
the general contractor and material suppliers. Unless an owner immediately and completely
covers the costs incurred by each participant, these organizations face financing problems of
their own.
At a more general level, project finance is only one aspect of the general problem of corporate
finance. If numerous projects are considered and financed together, then the net cash flow
requirements constitutes the corporate financing problem for capital investment. Whether project
finance is performed at the project or at the corporate level does not alter the basic financing
problem.
In essence, the project finance problem is to obtain funds to bridge the time between making
expenditures and obtaining revenues. Based on the conceptual plan, the cost estimate and the
construction plan, the cash flow of costs and receipts for a project can be estimated. Normally,
this cash flow will involve expenditures in early periods. Covering this negative cash balance in
the most beneficial or cost effective fashion is the project finance problem. During planning and
design, expenditures of the owner are modest, whereas substantial costs are incurred during
construction. Only after the facility is complete do revenues begin. In contrast, a contractor
would receive periodic payments from the owner as construction proceeds. However, a
contractor also may have a negative cash balance due to delays in payment and retainage of
profits or cost reimbursements on the part of the owner.
Plans considered by owners for facility financing typically have both long and short term
aspects. In the long term, sources of revenue include sales, grants, and tax revenues. Borrowed
funds must be eventually paid back from these other sources. In the short term, a wider variety of
financing options exist, including borrowing, grants, corporate investment funds, payment delays
and others. Many of these financing options involve the participation of third parties such as
banks or bond underwriters. For private facilities such as office buildings, it is customary to have
completely different financing arrangements during the construction period and during the period
of facility use. During the latter period, mortgage or loan funds can be secured by the value of
the facility itself. Thus, different arrangements of financing options and participants are possible
at different stages of a project, so the practice of financial planning is often complicated.
On the other hand, the options for borrowing by contractors to bridge their expenditures and
receipts during construction are relatively limited. For small or medium size projects, overdrafts
from bank accounts are the most common form of construction financing. Usually, a maximum
limit is imposed on an overdraft account by the bank on the basis of expected expenditures and
receipts for the duration of construction. Contractors who are engaged in large projects often own
substantial assets and can make use of other forms of financing which have lower interest
charges than overdrafting.
In recent years, there has been growing interest in design-build-operate projects in which owners
prescribe functional requirements and a contractor handles financing. Contractors are repaid over
a period of time from project revenues or government payments. Eventually, ownership of the
default on a facility may result if a problem occurs such as foundation problems or anticipated
unprofitability of the future facility. As a result of these uncertainties, construction lending for
unfinished facilities commands a premium interest charge of several percent compared to
mortgage lending for completed facilities.
Financing plans will typically include a reserve amount to cover unforeseen expenses, cost
increases or cash flow problems. This reserve can be represented by a special reserve or a
contingency amount in the project budget. In the simplest case, this reserve might represent a
borrowing agreement with a financial institution to establish a line of credit in case of need. For
publicly traded bonds, specific reserve funds administered by a third party may be established.
The cost of these reserve funds is the difference between the interest paid to bondholders and the
interest received on the reserve funds plus any administrative costs.
Finally, arranging financing may involve a lengthy period of negotiation and review. Particularly
for publicly traded bond financing, specific legal requirements in the issue must be met. A typical
seven month schedule to issue revenue bonds would include the various steps outlined in Table
7-1. [1] In many cases, the speed in which funds may be obtained will determine a project's
financing mechanism.
TABLE 7-1 Illustrative Process and Timing for Issuing Revenue Bonds
Activities
Analysis of financial alternatives
Preparation of legal documents
Preparation of disclosure documents
Forecasts of costs and revenues
Bond Ratings
Bond Marketing
Bond Closing and Receipt of Funds
Time of Activities
Weeks 0-4
Weeks 1-17
Weeks 2-20
Weeks 4-20
Weeks 20-23
Weeks 21-24
Weeks 23-26
might be lower. Also, this basic financing plan might be supplemented by other
sources such as corporate retained earnings or assistance from a local
development agency.
Lease the building from a third party: In this option, the corporation would
contract to lease space in a headquarters building from a developer. This
developer would be responsible for obtaining funding and arranging construction.
This plan has the advantage of minimizing the amount of funds borrowed by the
corporation. Under terms of the lease contract, the corporation still might have
considerable influence over the design of the headquarters building even though
the developer was responsible for design and construction.
Back to top
(7.2)
where At and
For the sake of simplicity, we shall emphasize in this chapter the evaluation of financing plans,
with occasional references to the combined effects of operating and financing cash flows. In all
discussions, we shall present various financing schemes with examples limiting to cases of
before-tax cash flows discounted at a before-tax MARR of r = rf for both operating and financial
cash flows. Once the basic concepts of various financing schemes are clearly understood, their
application to more complicated situations involving depreciation, tax liability and risk factors
can be considered in combination with the principles for dealing with such topics enunciated in
Chapter 6.
In this section, we shall concentrate on the computational techniques associated with the most
common types of financing arrangements. More detailed descriptions of various financing
schemes and the comparisons of their advantages and disadvantages will be discussed in later
sections.
Typically, the interest rate for borrowing is stated in terms of annual percentage rate (A.P.R.),
but the interest is accrued according to the rate for the interest period specified in the borrowing
agreement. Let ip be the nominal annual percentage rate, and i be the interest rate for each of the
p interest periods per year. By definition
(7.3)
If interest is accrued semi-annually, i.e., p = 2, the interest rate per period is ip/2; similarly if the
interest is accrued monthly, i.e., p = 12, the interest rate per period is ip/12. On the other hand, the
effective annual interest rate ie is given by:
(7.4)
Note that the effective annual interest rate, ie, takes into account compounding within the year.
As a result, ie is greater than ip for the typical case of more than one compounding period per
year.
For a coupon bond, the face value of the bond denotes the amount borrowed (called principal)
which must be repaid in full at a maturity or due date, while each coupon designates the interest
to be paid periodically for the total number of coupons covering all periods until maturity. Let Q
be the amount borrowed, and Ip be the interest payment per period which is often six months for
coupon bonds. If the coupon bond is prescribed to reach maturity in n years from the date of
issue, the total number of interest periods will be pn = 2n. The semi-annual interest payment is
given by:
(7.5)
In purchasing a coupon bond, a discount from or a premium above the face value may be paid.
An alternative loan arrangement is to make a series of uniform payments including both interest
and part of the principal for a pre-defined number of repayment periods. In the case of uniform
payments at an interest rate i for n repayment periods, the uniform repayment amount U is given
by:
(7.6)
where (U|P,i,n) is a capital recovery factor which reads: "to find U, given P=1, for an interest rate
i over n periods." Compound interest factors are as tabulated in Appendix A. The number of
repayment periods n will clearly influence the amounts of payments in this uniform payment
case. Uniform payment bonds or mortgages are based on this form of repayment.
Usually, there is an origination fee associated with borrowing for legal and other professional
services which is payable upon the receipt of the loan. This fee may appear in the form of
issuance charges for revenue bonds or percentage point charges for mortgages. The borrower
must allow for such fees in addition to the construction cost in determining the required original
amount of borrowing. Suppose that a sum of Po must be reserved at t=0 for the construction cost,
and K is the origination fee. Then the original loan needed to cover both is:
(7.7)
If the origination fee is expressed as k percent of the original loan, i.e., K = kQ0, then:
(7.8)
Since interest and sometimes parts of the principal must be repaid periodically in most financing
arrangements, an amount Q considerably larger than Q0 is usually borrowed in the beginning to
provide adequate reserve funds to cover interest payments, construction cost increases and other
unanticipated shortfalls. The net amount received from borrowing is deposited in a separate
interest bearing account from which funds will be withdrawn periodically for necessary
payments. Let the borrowing rate per period be denoted by i and the interest for the running
balance accrued to the project reserve account be denoted by h. Let At be the net operating cash
flow for - period t (negative for construction cost in period t) and
be the net financial cash
flow in period t (negative for payment of interest or principal or a combination of both). Then,
the running balance Nt of the project reserve account can be determined by noting that at t=0,
(7.9)
and at t = 1,2,...,n:
(7.10)
where the value of At or t may be zero for some period(s). Equations (7.9) and (7.10) are
approximate in that interest might be earned on intermediate balances based on the pattern of
payments during a period instead of at the end of a period.
Because the borrowing rate i will generally exceed the investment rate h for the running balance
in the project account and since the origination fee increases with the amount borrowed, the
financial planner should minimize the amount of money borrowed under this finance strategy.
Thus, there is an optimal value for Q such that all estimated shortfalls are covered, interest
payments and expenses are minimized, and adequate reserve funds are available to cover
unanticipated factors such as construction cost increases. This optimal value of Q can either be
identified analytically or by trial and error.
Finally, variations in ownership arrangements may also be used to provide at least partial
financing. Leasing a facility removes the need for direct financing of the facility. Sale-leaseback
involves sale of a facility to a third party with a separate agreement involving use of the facility
for a pre-specified period of time. In one sense, leasing arrangements can be viewed as a
particular form of financing. In return for obtaining the use of a facility or piece of equipment,
the user (lesser) agrees to pay the owner (lesser) a lease payment every period for a specified
number of periods. Usually, the lease payment is at a fixed level due every month, semi-annually,
or annually. Thus, the cash flow associated with the equipment or facility use is a series of
uniform payments. This cash flow would be identical to a cash flow resulting from financing the
facility or purchase with sufficient borrowed funds to cover initial construction (or purchase) and
with a repayment schedule of uniform amounts. Of course, at the end of the lease period, the
ownership of the facility or equipment would reside with the lesser. However, the lease terms
may include a provision for transferring ownership to the lesser after a fixed period.
If the minimum attractive rate of return of the corporation is greater than 15%, then this lease
arrangement is advantageous as a financing scheme since the net present value of the leasing
cash flow would be less than the cash flow associated with construction from retained earnings.
For example, with MARR equal to 20%:
[FPV]20% = $65.66 million - ($10 million)(P|U, 20%, 30) = $15.871 million
On the other hand, with MARR equal to 10%:
[FPV]10% = $65.66 million - ($10 million)(P|U, 20%, 30) = $28.609 million
and the lease arrangement is not advantageous.
Example 7-4: Example evaluation of alternative financing plans.
Suppose that a small corporation wishes to build a headquarters building. The construction will
require two years and cost a total of $12 million, assuming that $5 million is spent at the end of
the first year and $7 million at the end of the second year. To finance this construction, several
options are possible, including:
Investment from retained corporate earnings;
Borrowing from a local bank at an interest rate of 11.2% with uniform annual
payments over twenty years to pay for the construction costs. The shortfalls for
repayments on loans will come from corporate earnings. An origination fee of
0.75% of the original loan is required to cover engineer's reports, legal issues, etc;
or
A twenty year coupon bond at an annual interest rate of 10.25% with interest
payments annually, repayment of the principal in year 20, and a $169,000
origination fee to pay for the construction cost only.
The current corporate MARR is 15%, and short term cash funds can be deposited in an account
having a 10% annual interest rate.
The first step in evaluation is to calculate the required amounts and cash flows associated with
these three alternative financing plans. First, investment using retained earnings will require a
commitment of $5 million in year 1 and $7 million in year 2.
Second, borrowing from the local bank must yield sufficient funds to cover both years of
construction plus the issuing fee. With the unused fund accumulating interest at a rate of 10%,
the amount of dollars needed at the beginning of the first year for future construction cost
payments is:
Source
Principal
Issuing Cost
Earned Interest
Contractor Payment
Loan Repayment
Retained Earnings
- 5.000
-
Bank Loan
$10.409
- 0.078
1.033
- 5.000
- 1.324
Coupon Bond
$10.500
- 0.169
1.033
- 5.000
- 1.076
2
2
2
3-19
20
Earned Interest
Contractor Payment
Loan Repayment
Loan Repayment
Loan Repayment
[APV]15%
Back to top
- 7.000
-
0.636
- 7.000
- 1.324
- 1.324
- 1.324
0.636
- 7.000
- 1.076
-1.076
- 11.576
- 9.641
- 6.217
- 5.308
(7.11)
The required repayment Rc at the end of the period c can also be obtained by noting the net
present value of the repayments in the remaining (n-c) periods discounted at the borrowing rate i
to t = c as follows:
(7.12)
For coupon bonds, the required repayment Rc after the redemption of the coupon at the end of
period c is simply the original borrowed amount Q. For uniform payment bonds, the required
repayment Rc after the last payment at the end of period c is:
(7.13)
Many types of bonds can be traded in a secondary market by the bond holder. As interest rates
fluctuate over time, bonds will gain or lose in value. The actual value of a bond is reflected in the
market discount or premium paid relative to the original principal amount (the face value).
Another indicator of this value is the yield to maturity or internal rate of return of the bond. This
yield is calculated by finding the interest rate that sets the (discounted) future cash flow of the
bond equal to the current market price:
(7.14)
where Vc is the current market value after c periods have lapsed since the - issuance of the bond,
is the bond cash flow in period t, and r is the market yield. Since all the bond cash flows are
positive after the initial issuance, only one value of the yield to maturity will result from Eq.
(7.14).
Several other factors come into play in evaluation of bond values from the lenders point of view,
however. First, the lender must adjust for the possibility that the borrower may default on
required interest and principal payments. In the case of publicly traded bonds, special rating
companies divide bonds into different categories of risk for just this purpose. Obviously, bonds
that are more likely to default will have a lower value. Secondly, lenders will typically make
adjustments to account for changes in the tax code affecting their after-tax return from a bond.
Finally, expectations of future inflation or deflation as well as exchange rates will influence
market values.
Another common feature in borrowing agreements is to have a variable interest rate. In this case,
interest payments would vary with the overall market interest rate in some pre-specified fashion.
From the borrower's perspective, this is less desirable since cash flows are less predictable.
However, variable rate loans are typically available at lower interest rates because the lenders are
protected in some measure from large increases in the market interest rate and the consequent
decrease in value of their expected repayments. Variable rate loans can have floors and ceilings
on the applicable interest rate or on rate changes in each year.
The operating cash flow in column 2 of Table 7-3 represents the construction expenditures in the
early periods and rental receipts in later periods over the lifetime of the facility. By trial and error
with Eqs. (7.9) and (7.10), it can be found that Q = $2.5 million (K = $0.125 or 5% of Q) is
necessary to insure a nonnegative balance in the project account for the uniform payment bond,
as shown in Column 6 of Table 7-3. For the purpose of comparison, the same amount is
borrowed for the coupon bond option even though a smaller loan will be sufficient for the
construction expenditures in this case.
The financial cash flow of the coupon bond can easily be derived from Q = $2.5 million and K =
$0.125 million. Using Eq. (7.5), Ip = (5%)(2.5) = $0.125 million, and the repayment in Period 10
is Q + Ip = $2.625 million as shown in Column 3 of Table 7-3. The account balance for the
coupon bond in Column 4 is obtained from Eqs. (7.9) and (7.10). On the other hand, the uniform
annual payment U = $0.324 million for the financial cash flow of the uniform payment bond
(Column 5) can be obtained from Eq. (7.6), and the bond account for this type of balance is
computed by Eqs. (7.9) and (7.10).
Because of the optional redemption provision for both types of bonds, it is advantageous to
gradually redeem both options at the end of period 3 to avoid interest payments resulting from i
= 5% and h = 4% unless the account balance beyond period 3 is needed to fund other corporate
investments. corporate earnings are available for repurchasing the bonds at end of period 3, the
required repayment for coupon bond after redeeming the last coupon at the end of period 3 is
simply $2.625 million. In the case of the uniform payment bond, the required payment after the
last uniform payment at the end of period 3 is obtained from Equation (7-13) as:
R3 = (0.324)(P|U, 5%, 7) = (0.324)(5.7864) = $1.875 million.
TABLE 7-3 Example of Two Borrowing Cash Flows (in $ thousands)
Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Operating Cash
Flow
- $800
-700
-60
400
600
800
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Coupon Cash
Flow
$2,375
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 125
- 2,625
Account
Balance
$2,375
1,545
782
628
928
1,440
2,173
3,135
4,135
5,176
3,758
Uniform Cash
Flow
$2,375
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
- 324
Account
Balance
$2,375
1,346
376
8
84
364
854
1,565
2,304
3,072
3,871
months of construction, to cover all construction costs, to pay issuance expenses, and to maintain
a debt service reserve fund. The reserve fund is introduced to assure bondholders of payments in
case of unanticipated construction problems. It is estimated that a total amount of $7.4 million of
bond proceeds is required, including a two percent discount to underwriters and an issuance
expense of $100,000.
Three interest bearing accounts are established with the bond proceeds to separate various
categories of funds:
The total sources of funds (including interest from account balances) and uses of funds are
summarized in Table 7-4
TABLE 7-4 Illustrative Sources and Uses of Funds from Revenue Bonds During Construction
Sources of Funds
Bond Proceeds
Interest Earnings on Construction Fund
Interest Earnings of Capitalized Interest Fund
Interest Earnings on Debt Service Reserve Fund
Total Sources of Funds
$7,400,000
278,400
77,600
287,640
$8,043,640
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Interest Payments
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Bond Discount (2.0%)
Issuance Expense
Total Uses of Funds
$5,000,000
904,100
1,891,540
148,000
100,000
$8,043,640
Back to top
overdraft Nt-1 from the previous period (t-1) is It = iNt-1 where It would be negative for a negative
account balance Nt-1. For a positive account balance, the interest received is It = hNt-1 where It
would be positive for a positive account balance.
The account balance Nt at each period t is the sum of receipts Pt, payments Et, interest It and the
account balance from the previous period Nt-1. Thus,
(7.15)
where It = iNt-1 for a negative Nt-1 and It = hNt-1 for a positive Nt-1. The net cash flow At = Pt - Et is
positive for a net receipt and negative for a net payment. This equation is approximate in that the
interest might be earned on intermediate balances based on the pattern of payments during the
period instead of at the end of a period. The account balance in each period is of interest because
there will always be a maximum limit on the amount of overdraft available.
For the purpose of separating project finances with other receipts and payments in an
organization, it is convenient to establish a credit account into which receipts related to the
project must be deposited when they are received, and all payments related to the project will be
withdrawn from this account when they are needed. Since receipts typically lag behind payments
for a project, this credit account will have a negative balance until such time when the receipts
plus accrued interests are equal to or exceed payments in the period. When that happens, any
surplus will not be deposited in the credit account, and the account is then closed with a zero
balance. In that case, for negative Nt-1, Eq. (7.15) can be expressed as:
(7.16)
and as soon as Nt reaches a positive value or zero, the account is closed.
Example 7-9: Overdraft Financing with Grants to a Local Agency
A public project which costs $61,525,000 is funded eighty percent by a federal grant and twenty
percent from a state grant. The anticipated duration of the project is six years with receipts from
grant funds allocated at the end of each year to a local agency to cover partial payments to
contractors for that year while the remaining payments to contractors will be allocated at the end
of the sixth year. The end-of-year payments are given in Table 7-6 in which t=0 refers to the
beginning of the project, and each period is one year.
If this project is financed with an overdraft at an annual interest rate i = 10%, then the account
balance are computed by Eq. (7.15) and the results are shown in Table 7-6.
In this project, the total grant funds to the local agency covered the cost of construction in the
sense that the sum of receipts equaled the sum of construction payments of $61,525,000.
However, the timing of receipts lagged payments, and the agency incurred a substantial financing
cost, equal in this plan to the overdraft amount of $1,780,000 at the end of year 6 which must be
paid to close the credit account. Clearly, this financing problem would be a significant concern to
the local agency.
TABLE 7-6 Illustrative Payments, Receipts and
Overdrafts for a Six Year Project
Period t Receipts Pt Payments Et Interest It Account Nt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total
0
$5.826
8.401
12.013
15.149
13.984
6.152
$61.525
0
0
$6.473
0
9.334 - $0.065
13.348 - 0.165
16.832 - 0.315
15.538 - 0.514
0 - 0.721
$61.525 -$1.780
0
-$0.647
- 1.645
- 3.145
- 5.143
- 7.211
- 1.780
0
-500
1
110
2
112
3
114
4
116
5
118
6
120
7
238
The MARR of the corporation before tax is 10%. The corporation will finance the facility be
using $200,000 from retained earnings and by borrowing the remaining $300,000 through an
overdraft credit account which charges 14% interest for borrowing. Is this proposed project
including financing costs worthwhile?
The results of the analysis of this project is shown in Table 7-7 as follows:
N0 = -500 + 200 = -300
N1 = (1.14)(-300) + 110 = -232
N2 = (1.14)(-232) + 112 = -152.48
N3 = (1.14)(-152.48) + 114 = -59.827
N4 = (1.14)(-59.827) +116 = +47.797
Since N4 is positive, it is revised to exclude the net receipt of 116 for this period. Then, the
revised value for the last balance is
N4' = N4 - 116 = - 68.203
The financial cash flow
receipts will be:
= - N0 = 300
= - A1 = -110
= - A2 = -112
= - A3 = -114
= N4 - A4 = - 68.203
The adjusted net present value of the combined cash flow discounted at 15% is $27,679 as
shown in Table 7-7. Hence, the project including the financing charges is worthwhile.
Go Up to Table of Contents
Go To Chapter 7
(Financing of
Constructed
Facilities)
Go To Chapter 9
(Construction
Planning)
expenses and profit. The factors influencing a facility price will vary by type of facility and
location as well. Within each of the major categories of construction such as residential housing,
commercial buildings, industrial complexes and infrastructure, there are smaller segments which
have very different environments with regard to price setting. However, all pricing arrangements
have some common features in the form of the legal documents binding the owner and the
supplier(s) of the facility. Without addressing special issues in various industry segments, the
most common types of pricing arrangements can be described broadly to illustrate the basic
principles.
Competitive Bidding
The basic structure of the bidding process consists of the formulation of detailed plans and
specifications of a facility based on the objectives and requirements of the owner, and the
invitation of qualified contractors to bid for the right to execute the project. The definition of a
qualified contractor usually calls for a minimal evidence of previous experience and financial
stability. In the private sector, the owner has considerable latitude in selecting the bidders,
ranging from open competition to the restriction of bidders to a few favored contractors. In the
public sector, the rules are carefully delineated to place all qualified contractors on an equal
footing for competition, and strictly enforced to prevent collusion among contractors and
unethical or illegal actions by public officials.
Detailed plans and specifications are usually prepared by an architectural/engineering firm which
oversees the bidding process on behalf of the owner. The final bids are normally submitted on
either a lump sum or unit price basis, as stipulated by the owner. A lump sum bid represents the
total price for which a contractor offers to complete a facility according to the detailed plans and
specifications. Unit price bidding is used in projects for which the quantity of materials or the
amount of labor involved in some key tasks is particularly uncertain. In such cases, the
contractor is permitted to submit a list of unit prices for those tasks, and the final price used to
determine the lowest bidder is based on the lump sum price computed by multiplying the quoted
unit price for each specified task by the corresponding quantity in the owner's estimates for
quantities. However, the total payment to the winning contractor will be based on the actual
quantities multiplied by the respective quoted unit prices.
Negotiated Contracts
Instead of inviting competitive bidding, private owners often choose to award construction
contracts with one or more selected contractors. A major reason for using negotiated contracts is
the flexibility of this type of pricing arrangement, particularly for projects of large size and great
complexity or for projects which substantially duplicate previous facilities sponsored by the
owner. An owner may value the expertise and integrity of a particular contractor who has a good
reputation or has worked successfully for the owner in the past. If it becomes necessary to meet a
deadline for completion of the project, the construction of a project may proceed without waiting
for the completion of the detailed plans and specifications with a contractor that the owner can
trust. However, the owner's staff must be highly knowledgeable and competent in evaluating
contractor proposals and monitoring subsequent performance.
Generally, negotiated contracts require the reimbursement of direct project cost plus the
contractor's fee as determined by one of the following methods:
1. Cost plus fixed percentage
2. Cost plus fixed fee
3. Cost plus variable fee
4. Target estimate
5. Guaranteed maximum price or cost
The fixed percentage or fixed fee is determined at the outset of the project, while variable fee and
target estimates are used as an incentive to reduce costs by sharing any cost savings. A
guaranteed maximum cost arrangement imposes a penalty on a contractor for cost overruns and
failure to complete the project on time. With a guaranteed maximum price contract, amounts
below the maximum are typically shared between the owner and the contractor, while the
contractor is responsible for costs above the maximum.
Force-Account Construction
Some owners use in-house labor forces to perform a substantial amount of construction,
particularly for addition, renovation and repair work. Then, the total of the force-account charges
including in-house overhead expenses will be the pricing arrangement for the construction.
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Force majeure (i.e., this provision absolves an owner or a contractor for payment for
costs due to "Acts of God" and other external events such as war or labor strikes)
Indemnification (i.e., this provision absolves the indemified party from any payment for
losses and damages incurred by a third party such as adjacent property owners.)
Liens (i.e., assurances that third party claims are settled such as "mechanics liens" for
worker wages),
Labor laws (i.e., payments for any violation of labor laws and regulations on the job site),
Differing site conditions (i.e., responsibility for extra costs due to unexpected site
conditions),
Liquidated damages (i.e., payments for any facility defects with payment amounts agreed
to in advance)
Consequential damages (i.e., payments for actual damage costs assessed upon impact of
facility defects),
Suspension of work,
The language used for specifying the risk assignments in these areas must conform to legal
requirements and past interpretations which may vary in different jurisdictions or over time.
Without using standard legal language, contract provisions may be unenforceable. Unfortunately,
standard legal language for this purpose may be difficult to understand. As a result, project
managers often have difficulty in interpreting their particular responsibilities. Competent legal
counsel is required to advise the different parties to an agreement about their respective
responsibilities.
Standard forms for contracts can be obtained from numerous sources, such as the American
Institute of Architects (AIA) or the Associated General Contractors (AGC). These standard forms
may include risk and responsibility allocations which are unacceptable to one or more of the
contracting parties. In particular, standard forms may be biased to reduce the risk and
responsibility of the originating organization or group. Parties to a contract should read and
review all contract documents carefully.
The three examples appearing below illustrate contract language resulting in different risk
assignments between a contractor (CONTRACTOR) and an owner (COMPANY). Each contract
provision allocates different levels of indemnification risk to the contractor. [1]
Example 8-1: A Contract Provision Example with High Contractor Risk
"Except where the sole negligence of COMPANY is involved or alleged, CONTRACTOR shall
indemnify and hold harmless COMPANY, its officers, agents and employees, from and against
any and all loss, damage, and liability and from any and all claims for damages on account of or
by reason of bodily injury, including death, not limited to the employees of CONTRACTOR,
COMPANY, and of any subcontractor or CONTRACTOR, and from and against any and all
damages to property, including property of COMPANY and third parties, direct and/or
consequential, caused by or arising out of, in while or in part, or claimed to have been caused by
or to have arisen out of, in whole or in part, an act of omission of CONTRACTOR or its agents,
employees, vendors, or subcontractors, of their employees or agents in connection with the
performance of the Contract Documents, whether or not insured against; and CONTRACTOR
shall, at its own cost and expense, defend any claim, suit, action or proceeding, whether
groundless or not, which may be commenced against COMPANY by reason thereof or in
connection therewith, and CONTRACTOR shall pay any and all judgments which may be
recovered in such action, claim, proceeding or suit, and defray any and all expenses, including
costs and attorney's fees which may be incurred by reason of such actions, claims, proceedings,
or suits."
Comment: This is a very burdensome provision for the contractor. It makes the contractor
responsible for practically every conceivable occurrence and type of damage, except when a
claim for loss or damages is due to the sole negligence of the owner. As a practical matter, sole
negligence on a construction project is very difficult to ascertain because the work is so intertwined. Since there is no dollar limitation to the contractor's exposure, sufficient liability
coverage to cover worst scenario risks will be difficult to obtain. The best the contractor can do
is to obtain as complete and broad excess liability insurance coverage as can be purchased. This
insurance is costly, so the contractor should insure the contract price is sufficiently high to cover
the expense.
Example 8-2: An Example Contract Provision with Medium Risk Allocation to Contractor
"CONTRACTOR shall protect, defend, hold harmless, and indemnify COMPANY from and
against any loss, damage, claim, action, liability, or demand whatsoever (including, with
limitation, costs, expenses, and attorney's fees, whether for appeals or otherwise, in connection
therewith), arising out of any personal injury (including, without limitation, injury to any
employee of COMPANY, CONTRACTOR or any subcontractor), arising out of any personal
injury (including, without limitation, injury to any employee of COMPANY, CONTRACTOR, or
any subcontractor), including death resulting therefrom or out of any damage to or loss or
destruction of property, real and or personal (including property of COMPANY,
CONTRACTOR, and any subcontractor, and including tools and equipment whether owned,
rented, or used by CONTRACTOR, any subcontractor, or any workman) in any manner based
upon, occasioned by , or attributable or related to the performance, whether by the
CONTRACTOR or any subcontractor, of the Work or any part thereof, and CONTRACTOR
shall at its own expense defend any and all actions based thereon, except where said personal
injury or property damage is caused by the negligence of COMPANY or COMPANY'S
employees. Any loss, damage, cost expense or attorney's fees incurred by COMPANY in
connection with the foregoing may, in addition to other remedies, be deducted from
CONTRACTOR'S compensation, then due or thereafter to become due. COMPANY shall effect
for the benefit of CONTRACTOR a waiver of subrogation on the existing facilities, including
consequential damages such as, but not by way of limitation, loss of profit and loss of product or
plant downtime but excluding any deductibles which shall exist as at the date of this
CONTRACT; provided, however, that said waiver of subrogation shall be expanded to include all
said deductible amounts on the acceptance of the Work by COMPANY."
Comment: This clause provides the contractor considerable relief. He still has unlimited
exposure for injury to all persons and third party property but only to the extent caused by the
contractor's negligence. The "sole" negligence issue does not arise. Furthermore, the contractor's
liability for damages to the owner's property-a major concern for contractors working in
petrochemical complexes, at times worth billions-is limited to the owner's insurance deductible,
and the owner's insurance carriers have no right of recourse against the contractor. The
contractor's limited exposure regarding the owner's facilities ends on completion of the work.
Example 8-3: An Example Contract Provision with Low Risk Allocation to Contractor
"CONTRACTOR hereby agrees to indemnify and hold COMPANY and/or any parent,
subsidiary, or affiliate, or COMPANY and/or officers, agents, or employees of any of them,
harmless from and against any loss or liability arising directly or indirectly out of any claim or
cause of action for loss or damage to property including, but not limited to, CONTRACTOR'S
property and COMPANY'S property and for injuries to or death of persons including but not
limited to CONTRACTOR'S employees, caused by or resulting from the performance of the
work by CONTRACTOR, its employees, agents, and subcontractors and shall, at the option of
COMPANY, defend COMPANY at CONTRACTOR'S sole expense in any litigation involving
the same regardless of whether such work is performed by CONTRACTOR, its employees, or by
its subcontractors, their employees, or all or either of them. In all instances, CONTRACTOR'S
indemnity to COMPANY shall be limited to the proceeds of CONTRACTOR'S umbrella liability
insurance coverage."
Comment: With respect to indemnifying the owner, the contractor in this provision has minimal
out-of-pocket risk. Exposure is limited to whatever can be collected from the contractor's
insurance company.
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profit from the contractor, and they accept the concept of risk sharing/risk assignment in
principle in letting construction contracts. However, the implementation of such a concept in the
past decade has received mixed results.
Many public owners have been the victims of their own schemes, not only because of the usual
requirement in letting contracts of public works through competitive bidding to avoid favoritism,
but at times because of the sheer weight of entrenched bureaucracy. Some contractors steer away
from public works altogether; others submit bids at higher prices to compensate for the
restrictive provisions of contract terms. As a result, some public authorities find that either there
are few responsible contractors responding to their invitations to submit bids or the bid prices far
exceed their engineers' estimates. Those public owners who have adopted the federal
government's risk sharing/risk assignment contract concepts have found that while initial bid
prices may have decreased somewhat, claims and disputes on contracts are more frequent than
before, and notably more so than in privately funded construction. Some of these claims and
disputes can no doubt be avoided by improving the contract provisions. [2]
Since most claims and disputes arise most frequently from lump sum contracts for both public
and private owners, the following factors associated with lump sum contracts are particularly
noteworthy:
unbalanced bids in unit prices on which periodic payment estimates are based.
change orders subject to negotiated payments
An unbalanced bid refers to raising the unit prices on items to be completed in the early stage of
the project and lowering the unit prices on items to be completed in the later stages. The purpose
of this practice on the part of the contractor is to ease its burden of construction financing. It is
better for owners to offer explicit incentives to aid construction financing in exchange for lower
bid prices than to allow the use of hidden unbalanced bids. Unbalanced bids may also occur if a
contractor feels some item of work was underestimated in amount, so that a high unit price on
that item would increase profits. Since lump sum contracts are awarded on the basis of low bids,
it is difficult to challenge the low bidders on the validity of their unit prices except for flagrant
violations. Consequently remedies should be sought by requesting the contractor to submit
pertinent records of financial transactions to substantiate the expenditures associated with its
monthly billings for payments of work completed during the period.
One of the most contentious issues in contract provisions concerns the payment for change
orders. The owner and its engineer should have an appreciation of the effects of changes for
specific items of work and negotiate with the contractor on the identifiable cost of such items.
The owner should require the contractor to submit the price quotation within a certain period of
time after the issuance of a change order and to assess whether the change order may cause delay
damages. If the contract does not contain specific provisions on cost disclosures for evaluating
change order costs, it will be difficult to negotiate payments for change orders and claim
settlements later.
In some projects, the contract provisions may allow the contractor to provide alternative design
and/or construction technology. The owner may impose different mechanisms for pricing these
changes. For example, a contractor may suggest a design or construction method change that
fulfills the performance requirements. Savings due to such changes may accrue to the contractor
or the owner, or may be divided in some fashion between the two. The contract provisions must
reflect the owners risk-reward objectives in calling for alternate design and/or construction
technology. While innovations are often sought to save money and time, unsuccessful
innovations may require additional money and time to correct earlier misjudgment. At worse, a
failure could have serious consequences.
In spite of admonitions and good intentions for better planning before initiating a construction
project, most owners want a facility to be in operation as soon as possible once a decision is
made to proceed with its construction. Many construction contracts contain provisions of
penalties for late completion beyond a specified deadline; however, unless such provisions are
accompanied by similar incentives for early completion, they may be ruled unenforceable in
court. Early completion may result in significant savings, particularly in rehabilitation projects in
which the facility users are inconvenienced by the loss of the facility and the disruption due to
construction operations.
Example 8-4: Arkansas Rice Growers Cooperative Association v. Alchemy Industries
A 1986 court case can illustrate the assumption of risk on the part of contractors and design
professionals. [3] The Arkansas Rice Growers Cooperative contracted with Alchemy Industries,
Inc. to provide engineering and construction services for a new facility intended to generate
steam by burning rice hulls. Under the terms of the contract, Alchemy Industries guaranteed that
the completed plant would be capable of "reducing a minimum of seven and one-half tons of rice
hulls per hour to an ash and producing a minimum of 48 million BTU's per hour of steam at 200
pounds pressure." Unfortunately, the finished plant did not meet this performance standard, and
the Arkansas Rice Growers Cooperative Association sued Alchemy Industries and its
subcontractors for breach of warranty. Damages of almost $1.5 million were awarded to the
Association.
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contingencies. Beside the fixed lump sum price, other commitments are often made by the
contractor in the form of submittals such as a specific schedule, the management reporting
system or a quality control program. If the actual cost of the project is underestimated, the
underestimated cost will reduce the contractor's profit by that amount. An overestimate has an
opposite effect, but may reduce the chance of being a low bidder for the project.
overruns to the owner, but also provides incentives to contractors to reduce costs as much as
possible.
Markup
Contract Price
1. Lump sum
2. Unit price
3. Cost plus fixed %
4. Cost plus fixed fee
5. Cost plus variable %
6. Target estimate
7. Guaranteed max cost
M = (R +R1)E
M = (R + R2)E
M = RA = RE
M = RE
M = R (2E - A) = RE
M = RE + N (E-A) = RE
M = (R + R3)E
B = (1 + R + R1)E
B = (1 + R + R2)E
B = (1 + R)E
B = (1 + R)E
B = (1 + R)E
B = (1 + R)E
B = (1 + R + R3)E
Payments of change orders are also different in contract provisions for different types of
contracts. Suppose that payments for change orders agreed upon for various types of contracts
are as shown in column 2 of Table 8-2. The owner's actual payments based on these provisions as
well as the incentive provisions for various types of contracts are given in column 3 of Table 8-2.
The corresponding contractor's profits under various contractual arrangements are shown in
Table 8-3.
TABLE 8-2 Owner's Actual Payment with Different Contract Provisions
Type of Contract
1. Lump sum
2. Unit price
3. Cost plus fixed %
4. Cost plus fixed fee
5. Cost plus variable %
6. Target estimate
7. Guaranteed max cost
C(1 + R + R1)
C(1 + R + R2)
C(1 + R)
C
C(1 + R)
C
0
Owner's Payment
P = B + C(1 + R + R1)
P = (1 + R + R2)A + C
P = (1 + R)(A + C)
P = RE + A + C
P = R (2E - A + C) + A + C
P = RE + N (E - A) + A + C
P=B
It is important to note that the equations in Tables 8-1 through 8-3 are illustrative, subject to the
simplified conditions of payments assumed under the various types of contracts. When the
negotiated conditions of payment are different, the equations must also be modified.
$763
700
636
600
636
600
540
$480
686
624
600
576
480
660
$523
726
660
600
616
480
300
$960
634
576
600
624
720
1,140
$1,003
674
612
600
660
720
780
Using the data in Example 8-5, determine the owner's actual payment for each of the seven types
of construction contracts for the same conditions of U and C. The results of computation are
shown in Table 8-5.
TABLE 8-5 Owner's Actual Payments under Different Conditions (in
$1,000)
Type of Contract
1. lump sum
2. unit price
3. cost + fixed %
4. cost + fixed fee
5. cost + Var %
6. target estimate
7. guar. max. cost
U=0
C=0
$6,720
6,660
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,900
$6,720
6,926
6,864
6,840
6,816
6,720
6,900
$7,123
7,326
7,260
7,200
7,212
7,080
6,900
$6,720
6,394
6,336
6,360
6,384
6,480
6,900
$7,123
6,794
6,732
6,720
6,780
6,840
6,900
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company, as well as the contractor's propensity to risk greater profit versus the chance of not
getting a contract.
One major concern in bidding competitions is the amount of "money left on the table," of the
difference between the winning and the next best bid. The winning bidder would like the amount
of "money left on the table" to be as small as possible. For example, if a contractor wins with a
bid of $200,000, and the next lowest bid was $225,000 (representing $25,000 of "money left on
the table"), then the winning contractor would have preferred to have bid $220,000 (or perhaps
$224,999) to increase potential profits.
Some of the major factors impacting bidding competitions include:
contractors form an extensive network with a group of subcontractors with whom they have had
previous business transactions. They usually rely on their own experience in soliciting
subcontract bids before finalizing a bid price for the project.
agreement. A two party, one issue negotiation illustrates this fundamental point. Suppose that a
developer is willing to pay up to $500,000 for a particular plot of land, whereas the owner would
be willing to sell the land for $450,000 or more. These maximum and minimum sales prices
represent constraints on any eventual agreement. In this example, any purchase price between
$450,000 and $500,000 is acceptable to both of the involved parties. This range represents a
feasible agreement space. Successful negotiations would conclude in a sales price within this
range. Which party receives the $50,000 in the middle range between $450,000 and $500,000
would typically depend upon the negotiating skills and special knowledge of the parties
involved. For example, if the developer was a better negotiator, then the sales price would tend to
be close to the minimum $450,000 level.
With different constraints, it might be impossible to reach an agreement. For example, if the
owner was only willing to sell at a price of $550,000 while the developer remains willing to pay
only $500,000, then there would be no possibility for an agreement between the two parties. Of
course, the two parties typically do not know at the beginning of negotiations if agreements will
be possible. But it is quite important for each party to the negotiation to have a sense of their own
reservation price, such as the owner's minimum selling price or the buyer's maximum purchase
price in the above example. This reservation price is equal to the value of the best alternative to a
negotiated agreement.
Poor negotiating strategies adopted by one or the other party may also preclude an agreement
even with the existence of a feasible agreement range. For example, one party may be so
demanding that the other party simply breaks off negotiations. In effect, negotiations are not a
well behaved solution methodology for the resolution of disputes.
The possibility of negotiating failures in the land sale example highlights the importance of
negotiating style and strategy with respect to revealing information. Style includes the extent to
which negotiators are willing to seem reasonable, the type of arguments chosen, the forcefulness
of language used, etc. Clearly, different negotiating styles can be more or less effective. Cultural
factors are also extremely important. American and Japanese negotiating styles differ
considerably, for example. Revealing information is also a negotiating decision. In the land sale
case, some negotiators would readily reveal their reserve or constraint prices, whereas others
would conceal as much information as possible (i.e. "play their cards close to the vest") or
provide misleading information.
In light of these tactical problems, it is often beneficial to all parties to adopt objective standards
in determining appropriate contract provisions. These standards would prescribe a particular
agreement or a method to arrive at appropriate values in a negotiation. Objective standards can
be derived from numerous sources, including market values, precedent, professional standards,
what a court would decide, etc. By using objective criteria of this sort, personalities and
disruptive negotiating tactics do not become impediments to reaching mutually beneficial
agreements.
With additional issues, negotiations become more complex both in procedure and in result. With
respect to procedure, the sequence in which issues are defined or considered can be very
important. For example, negotiations may proceed on an issue-by-issue basis, and the outcome
may depend upon the exact sequence of issues considered. Alternatively, the parties may proceed
by proposing complete agreement packages and then proceed to compare packages. With respect
to outcomes, the possibility of the parties having different valuations or weights on particular
issues arises. In this circumstance, it is possible to trade-off the outcomes on different issues to
the benefit of both parties. By yielding on an issue of low value to himself but high value to the
other party, concessions on other issues may be obtained.
The notion of Pareto optimal agreements can be introduced to identify negotiated agreements in
which no change in the agreement can simultaneously make both parties better off. Figure 8-1
illustrates Pareto optimal agreements which can be helpful in assessing the result of multiple
issue negotiations. In this figure, the axes represent the satisfaction or desirability of agreements
to the parties, denoted I and II. This representation assumes that one can place a dollar or utility
value on various agreements reached in a multiple-issue negotiation between two parties. Points
in the graph represent particular agreements on the different issues under consideration. A
particular point may be obtained by more than one contract agreement. The curved line encloses
the set of all feasible agreements; any point in this area is an acceptable agreement. Each party
has a minimum acceptable satisfaction level in this graph. Points on the interior of this feasible
area represent inferior agreements since some other agreement is possible that benefits both
parties. For example, point B represents a more desirable agreement than point A. In the previous
example, point B might represent a purchase price of $490,000 and an immediate purchase,
whereas point A might represent a $475,000 sale price and a six month delay. The feasible points
that are not inferior constitute the set of Pareto optimal or efficient agreements; these points lie
on the north-east quadrant of the feasible region as marked on the figure.
The definition of Pareto optimal agreements allows one to assess at least one aspect of negotiated
outcomes. If two parties arrive at an inferior agreement (such as point A in Figure 8-1), then the
agreement could be improved to the benefit of both parties. In contrast, different Pareto optimal
agreements (such as points B and C in Figure 8-1) can represent widely different results to the
individual parties but do not have the possibility for joint improvement.
Of course, knowledge of the concept of Pareto optimal agreements does not automatically give
any guidance on what might constitute the best agreements. Much of the skill in contract
negotiation comes from the ability to invent new options that represent mutual gains. For
example, devising contract incentives for speedier completion of projects may result in benefits
to both contractors and the owner.
Example 8-7: Effects of different value perceptions.
Suppose that the closing date for sale of the land in the previous case must also be decided in
negotiation. The current owner would like to delay the sale for six months, which would
represent rental savings of $10,000. However, the developer estimates that the cost of a six
month delay would be $20,000. After negotiation, suppose that a purchase price of $475,000 and
a six month purchase delay are agreed upon. This agreement is acceptable but not optimal for
both parties. In particular, both sides would be better off if the purchase price was increased by
$15,000 and immediate closing instituted. The current owner would receive an additional
payment of $15,000, incur a cost of $10,000, and have a net gain of $5,000. Similarly, the
developer would pay $15,000 more for the land but save $20,000 in delay costs. While this
superior result may seem obvious and easily achievable, recognizing such opportunities during a
negotiation becomes increasingly difficult as the number and complexity of issues increases.
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Duration
The final contract must specify a required completion date.
Penalty for Late Completion
The final contract may include a daily penalty for late project completion on the part of
the contractor.
Report Format
Contractor progress reports will either conform to the traditional CMG Gas format or to a
new format proposed by the state.
Contract Type
The construction contract may be a flat fee, a cost plus a percentage profit, or a
guaranteed maximum with cost plus a percentage profit below the maximum.
Percentage of Profit
If the contract involves a percentage profit, then the percentage must be agreed upon.
A final contract requires an agreement on each of these issues, represented on a form signed by
both negotiators.
As a further aid, each participant is provided with additional information and a scoring system to
indicate the relative desirability of different contract agreements. Additional information includes
items such as estimated construction cost and expected duration as well as company policies
such as desired reporting formats or work arrangements. This information may be revealed or
withheld from the other party depending upon an individual's negotiating strategy. The numerical
scoring system includes point totals for different agreements on specific issues, including
interactions among the various issues. For example, the amount of points received by Pipeline
Constructors, Inc. for a bonus for early completion increases as the completion date become
later. An earlier completion becomes more likely with a later completion date, and hence the
probability of receiving a bonus increases, so the resulting point total likewise increases.
The two firms have differing perceptions of the desirability of different agreements. In some
cases, their views will be directly conflicting. For example, increases in a flat fee imply greater
profits for Pipeline Constructors, Inc. and greater costs for CMG Gas. In some cases, one party
may feel strongly about a particular issue, whereas the other is not particularly concerned. For
example, CMG Gas may want a clerk on site, while Pipeline Constructors, Inc. may not care. As
described in the previous section, these differences in the evaluation of an issue provide
opportunities for negotiators. By conceding an unimportant issue to the other party, a negotiator
may trade for progress on an issue that is more important to his or her firm. Examples of
instructions to the negotiators appear below.
completion before forty weeks doesn't yield any benefit other than your own peace of mind. Try
to keep the early bonus as low as possible.
Throughout the project you will want progress reports. The more often these reports are received,
the better to monitor the progress. State law dictates that the Required Standard Report be used
unless the contractor and the owner agree otherwise. These reports are very detailed and time
consuming to review. You would prefer to use the traditional CMG Gas reports.
The state legislature is considering a law that requires accurate drawings and markers of all
pipelines by all utilities. For this project it will cost an additional $250,000 to do this now, or
$750,000 to do this when the law is passed.
One of the most important issues is the type of contract, and the amount of be paid. The Flat Fee
contract means that CMG Gas will pay the contractor a set amount. Therefore, when there are
delays and cost overruns, the contractor assumes full responsibility for the individual costs.
However, this evasion of risk has to be paid for and results in a higher price. If Flat Fee is
chosen, only the contract price is to be determined. Your company's estimators have determined
that the project should cost about $5,000,000.
The Cost Plus Percent contract may be cheaper, but the risk is shared. With this type of contract,
the contractor will bill the gas company for all costs, plus a specified percentage of those costs.
In this case, cost overruns will be paid by the gas company. If this type of contract is chosen, not
only must the profit percentage be chosen, but also whether or not a gas company representative
will be allowed on site all of the time acting as a Field Clerk, to ensure that a proper amount of
material and labor is billed. The usual percentage agreed upon is about ten percent.
Contractors also have a concern whether or not they will receive a penalty if the gas right-of-way
is not obtained in time to start the project. In this case, CMG Gas has already secured the rightof-ways. But, if the penalty is too high, this is a dangerous precedent for future negotiations.
However, you might try to use this as a bargaining tool.
Example 8-8: An example of a negotiated contract
A typical contract resulting from a simulation of the negotiation between CMG Gas and Pipeline
Constructors, Inc. appears in Table 8-6. An agreement with respect to each pre-defined issue is
included, and the resulting contract signed by both negotiators.
TABLE 8-6 Example of a Negotiated Contract between CMG Gas and
Pipeline Constructors, Inc
Duration
38 weeks
$0 per day
Report Format
weekly
yes
Contract Type
flat fee
$5,050,000
Percentage of Profit
Not applicable
yes
Signed:
CMG Gas Representative
Pipeline Constructors, Inc.
NOTE: NA means not acceptable and the deal will not be approved by your boss with any of
these provisions. also, the alternatives listed are the only ones in the context of this problem; no
other alternatives are acceptable.
1. COMPLETION DATE
System A
NA
0
+5
+10
+20
+40
System B
NA
NA
-10
0
+10
+20
2. REPORTS
State Standard Report
CMG Reports
-20
-5
0
0
37
38
-1
-2
-3
-5
-7
-9
-12
-14
NA
38
39
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
-9
-11
NA
39
40
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
NA
40
41
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
NA
37
38
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
38
39
0
2
4
6
8
10
14
18
22
26
30
39
40
0
2
4
6
10
14
18
24
28
32
36
40
41
2
2
4
8
12
16
22
28
36
40
45
Under 36 Weeks
36 weeks
37 weeks
38 weeks
39 weeks
40 weeks
B
+10
+10
A
NA
-20
-10
-6
B
0
0
0
0
7. CONTRACT TYPE
A
5
+25
If Flat Fee do part 8 and skip parts 9 and 10.
If Cost + X% do parts 9 and 10 and skip part 8.
Flat Fee
Cost + X%
B
5
+25
A
NA
+1 for each 10,000
B
-15 for each 10,000
+2 for each 10,000
A
NA
+250
+375
+450
+475
+500
+525
+550
+600
+725
+900
B
NA
NA
+300
+330
+360
+400
+440
+480
+540
+600
+800
A
0
0
B
0
+10
9. IF COST PLUS X%
Below 6%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Over 14%
10. GAS CO. FIELD CLERK ON SITE
Yes
No
11. PENALTY FOR DELAYED STARTING DATE DUE TO GAS COMPANY ERROR ($ PER
DAY)
A
B
0 - 499
NA
NA
500 - 1499
-6
-10
1500 - 2499
-4
-7
1500 - 3499
-2
-5
3500 - 4499
-1
-3
4500 - 5499
0
-1
5500 - 6499
+1
0
6500 - 7499
+2
+3
7500 or more
+4
+6
with any of these provisions. If you can't negotiate a contract, your score will be
+450. Also, the alternatives listed are the only ones in the context of this problem
no other alternatives are acceptable.
1. DURATION
Over 40 weeks
40 weeks
39 weeks
38 weeks
37 weeks
0-36 weeks
2. REPORTS
POINTS
System A
NA
0
+2
+4
+5
+6
System B
-40
-10
+2
+8
+14
+14
+2
+10
0
0
38
40
NA
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
15
39
41
NA
3
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
13
A
NA
+3
+6
+8
+10
+12
+13
+14
+15
B
-5
-2
-1
0
+5
+7
+9
+13
+17
B
0
NA
A
+45
+50
+30
NA
B
+50
+30
+10
+5
40
42
NA
0
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
7. CONTRACT TYPE
A
Flat Fee
25
Cost + X%
0
If Flat Fee do part 8 and skip parts 9 and 10.
If Cost + X% do parts 9 and 10 and skip part 8.
B
25
0
A
NA
+1 for each
10,000
below 5,000,000
B
NA
+1 for each
10,000
below 5,000,000
A
+950
+800
+700
+600
+550
+525
+500
+475
+450
+400
+300
+200
NA
B
+700
+660
+620
+590
+570
+550
+535
+500
+440
+380
+300
+100
+10
A
+20
+5
B
+10
0
9. IF COST PLUS X%
Below 5%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
Over 14%
10. GAS CO. FIELD CLERK ON SITE
Yes
No
11. PENALTY FOR DELAYED STARTING DATE DUE TO UNAVAILABLE RIGHT-OFWAYS ($ PER DAY)
A
B
0 - 1,999
+10
+3
2,000 - 3,999
+8
+2
4,000 - 5,999
+6
+1
6,000 - 7,999
+4
0
8,000 - 9,999
+2
-10
10,000 or more
NA
-20
Back to top
Private judging in which the participants hire a third party judge to make a decision,
Neutral expert fact-finding in which a third party with specialized knowledge makes a
recommendation, and
Mini-trial in which legal summaries of the participants' positions are presented to a jury
comprised of principals of the affected parties.
Some of these procedures may be court sponsored or required for particular types of disputes.
While these various disputes resolution mechanisms involve varying costs, it is important to note
that the most important mechanism for reducing costs and problems in dispute resolution is the
reasonableness of the initial contract among the parties as well as the competence of the project
manager.
Back to top
8.10 References
1. Au, T., R.L. Bostleman and E.W. Parti, "Construction Management Game-Deterministic
Model," Asce Journal of the Construction Division, Vol. 95, 1969, pp. 25-38.
2. Building Research Advisory Board, Exploratory Study on Responsibility, Liability and
Accountability for Risks in Construction, National Academy of Sciences, Washington,
D.C., 1978.
3. Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project, "Contractual Arrangements," Report A7, The Business Roundtable, New York, October 1982.
4. Dudziak, W. and C. Hendrickson, "A Negotiating Simulation Game," ASCE Journal of
Management in Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1988.
5. Graham, P.H., "Owner Management of Risk in Construction Contracts," Current Practice
in Cost Estimating and Cost Control, Proceedings of an ASCE Conference, Austin,
Texas, April 1983, pp. 207-215.
6. Green, E.D., "Getting Out of Court -- Private Resolution of Civil Disputes," Boston Bar
Journal, May-June 1986, pp. 11-20.
7. Park, William R., The Strategy of Contracting for Profit, 2nd Edition, Prentice-Hall,
Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1986.
8. Raiffa, Howard, The Art and Science of Negotiation, Harvard University Press,
Cambridge, MA, 1982.
9. Walker, N., E.N. Walker and T.K. Rohdenburg, Legal Pitfalls in Architecture,
Engineering and Building Construction, 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York,
1979.
Back to top
8.11 Problems
1. Suppose that in Example 8-5, the terms for the guaranteed maximum cost contract are
such that change orders will not be compensated if their total cost is within 3% of the
original estimate, but will be compensated in full for the amount beyond 3% of the
original estimate. If all other conditions remain unchanged, determine the contractor's
profit and the owner's actual payment under this contract for the following conditions of
U and C:
1.
U = 0,
C = 6%E
C = 6%E
2.
U = 4%E,
C = 6%E
3.
U = - 4%E,
2. Suppose that in Example 8-5, the terms of the target estimate contract call for N = 0.3
instead of N = 0.5, meaning that the contractor will receive 30% of the savings. If all
other conditions remain unchanged, determine the contractor's profit and the owner's
actual payment under this contract for the given conditions of U and C.
3. Suppose that in Example 8-5, the terms of the cost plus variable percentage contract
allow an incentive bonus for early completion and a penalty for late completion of the
project. Let D be the number of days early, with negative value denoting D days late. The
bonus per days early or the penalty per day late with be T dollars. The agreed formula for
owner's payment is:
P = R(2E - A + C) + A + C + DT(1 + 0.4C/E)
The value of T is set at $5,000 per day, and the project is completed 30 days behind
schedule. If all other conditions remain unchanged, find the contractor's profit and the
owner's actual payment under this contract for the given conditions of U and C.
4. Consider a construction project for which the contractor's estimate is $3,000,000. For
various types of contracts, R = 10%, R1 = 3%, R2 = 1.5%, R3 = 6% and N = 0.6. The
contractor is not compensated for change orders under the guaranteed maximum cost
contract if the total cost for the change order is within 5% ($150,000) of the original
estimate. Determine the contractor's gross profit for each of the seven types of
construction contracts for each of the following conditions of U and C:
1.
U = 0,
C=0
C = 4% E = $120,000
2.
U = 0,
C=0
C = 4% E = 120,000
3.
U = 5% E = $150,000,
C=0
C = 4% E = 120,000
4.
U = 5% E = $150,000,
5.
U = 2% E = $60,000,
6.
U = 2% E = $60,000,
5. Using the data in Problem 4, determine the owner's actual payment for each of the seven
types of construction contracts for the same conditions of U and C.
6. Suppose that in Problem 4, the terms of the guaranteed maximum cost contract are such
that change orders will not be compensated if their total cost is within 3% of the original
estimate, but will be compensated in full for the amount beyond 3% of the original
estimate. If all conditions remained unchanged, determine the contractor's profit and the
owner's actual payment under this contract for the following conditions of U and C:
1.
U = 0,
C = 5%E
C = 5%E
2.
U = 2%,
C = 5%E
3.
U = -2%,
7. Suppose that in Problem 4, the terms of the target estimate contract call for N = 0.7
instead of N = 0.3, meaning that the contractor will receive 70% of the savings. If all
other conditions remain unchanged, determine the contractor's profit and the owner's
actual payment under this contract for the given conditions of U and C.
8. Suppose that in Problem 4, the terms of the cost plus variable percentage contract allow
an incentive bonus for early completion and a penalty for late completion of the project.
Let D be the number of days early, with negative value denoting D days late. The bonus
per days early or the penalty per day late will be T dollars. The agreed formula for
owner's payment is:
P = R(2E - A + C) + A + C + DT(1 + 0.2C/E)
The value of T is set at $ 10,000 per day, and the project is completed 20 days ahead
schedule. If all other conditions remain unchanged, find the contractor's profit and the
owner's actual payment under this contract for the given conditions of U and C.
9. In playing the construction negotiating game described in Section 8.8, your
instructor may choose one of the following combinations of companies and
issues leading to different combinations of the scoring systems:
System A
System A
System B
System B
System A
System B
System A
System B
10. Since the scoring systems are confidential information, your instructor will not disclose
the combination used for the assignment. Your instructor may divide the class into groups
of two students, each group acting as negotiators representing the two companies in the
game. To keep the game interesting and fair, do not try to find out the scoring system of
your negotiating counterpart. To seek insider information is unethical and illegal!
Back to top
8.12 Footnotes
1. These examples are taken directly from A Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project
Report, "Contractual Arrangements," The Business Roundtable, New York, Appendix D, 1982.
Permission to quote this material from the Business Roundtable is gratefully acknowledged.
Back
2. See C.D. Sutliff and J.G. Zack, Jr. "Contract Provisions that Ensure Complete Cost
Disclosures", Cost Engineering, Vol. 29, No. 10, October 1987, pp. 10-14. Back
3. Arkansas Rice Growers v. Alchemy Industries, Inc., United States Court of Appeals, Eighth
Circuit, 1986. The court decision appears in 797 Federal Reporter, 2d Series, pp. 565-574. Back
4. This game is further described in W. Dudziak and C. Hendrickson, "A Negotiation Simulation
Game," ASCE Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1988. Back
5. To undertake this exercise, the instructor needs to divide students into negotiating teams, with
each individual assigned scoring system A or B. Negotiators will represent Pipeline Constructors,
Inc. or CMG Gas. Negotiating pairs should not be told which scoring system their counterpart is
assigned. Back
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8
(Construction
Pricing and
Contracting)
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10
(Fundamental
Scheduling
Procedures)
Construction Planning
Basic Concepts in the
Development of Construction
Plans
Choice of Technology and
Construction Method
Defining Work Tasks
Defining Precedence
Relationships Among Activities
Estimating Activity
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Durations
Estimating Resource
Requirements for Work
Activities
Coding Systems
References
Problems
Footnotes
9. Construction Planning
9.1 Basic Concepts in the Development of Construction
Plans
Construction planning is a fundamental and challenging activity in the management and
execution of construction projects. It involves the choice of technology, the definition of work
tasks, the estimation of the required resources and durations for individual tasks, and the
identification of any interactions among the different work tasks. A good construction plan is the
basis for developing the budget and the schedule for work. Developing the construction plan is a
critical task in the management of construction, even if the plan is not written or otherwise
formally recorded. In addition to these technical aspects of construction planning, it may also be
necessary to make organizational decisions about the relationships between project participants
and even which organizations to include in a project. For example, the extent to which subcontractors will be used on a project is often determined during construction planning.
Forming a construction plan is a highly challenging task. As Sherlock Holmes noted:
Most people, if you describe a train of events to them, will tell you what the result would be.
They can put those events together in their minds, and argue from them that something will come
to pass. There are few people, however, who, if you told them a result, would be able to evolve
from their own inner consciousness what the steps were which led up to that result. This power is
what I mean when I talk of reasoning backward. [1]
Like a detective, a planner begins with a result (i.e. a facility design) and must synthesize the
steps required to yield this result. Essential aspects of construction planning include the
generation of required activities, analysis of the implications of these activities, and choice
among the various alternative means of performing activities. In contrast to a detective
discovering a single train of events, however, construction planners also face the normative
problem of choosing the best among numerous alternative plans. Moreover, a detective is faced
with an observable result, whereas a planner must imagine the final facility as described in the
plans and specifications.
In developing a construction plan, it is common to adopt a primary emphasis on either cost
control or on schedule control as illustrated in Fig. 9-1. Some projects are primarily divided into
expense categories with associated costs. In these cases, construction planning is cost or expense
oriented. Within the categories of expenditure, a distinction is made between costs incurred
directly in the performance of an activity and indirectly for the accomplishment of the project.
For example, borrowing expenses for project financing and overhead items are commonly
treated as indirect costs. For other projects, scheduling of work activities over time is critical and
is emphasized in the planning process. In this case, the planner insures that the proper
precedences among activities are maintained and that efficient scheduling of the available
resources prevails. Traditional scheduling procedures emphasize the maintenance of task
precedences (resulting in critical path scheduling procedures) or efficient use of resources over
time (resulting in job shop scheduling procedures). Finally, most complex projects require
consideration of both cost and scheduling over time, so that planning, monitoring and record
keeping must consider both dimensions. In these cases, the integration of schedule and budget
information is a major concern.
In this chapter, we shall consider the functional requirements for construction planning such as
technology choice, work breakdown, and budgeting. Construction planning is not an activity
which is restricted to the period after the award of a contract for construction. It should be an
essential activity during the facility design. Also, if problems arise during construction, replanning is required.
Back to top
While repetition of activities in different locations or reproduction of activities from past projects
reduces the work involved, there are very few computer aids for the process of defining
activities. Databases and information systems can assist in the storage and recall of the activities
associated with past projects as described in Chapter 14. For the scheduling process itself,
numerous computer programs are available. But for the important task of defining activities,
reliance on the skill, judgment and experience of the construction planner is likely to continue.
More formally, an activity is any subdivision of project tasks. The set of activities defined for a
project should be comprehensive or completely exhaustive so that all necessary work tasks are
included in one or more activities. Typically, each design element in the planned facility will
have one or more associated project activities. Execution of an activity requires time and
resources, including manpower and equipment, as described in the next section. The time
required to perform an activity is called the duration of the activity. The beginning and the end of
activities are signposts or milestones, indicating the progress of the project. Occasionally, it is
useful to define activities which have no duration to mark important events. For example, receipt
of equipment on the construction site may be defined as an activity since other activities would
depend upon the equipment availability and the project manager might appreciate formal notice
of the arrival. Similarly, receipt of regulatory approvals would also be specially marked in the
project plan.
The extent of work involved in any one activity can vary tremendously in construction project
plans. Indeed, it is common to begin with fairly coarse definitions of activities and then to further
sub-divide tasks as the plan becomes better defined. As a result, the definition of activities
evolves during the preparation of the plan. A result of this process is a natural hierarchy of
activities with large, abstract functional activities repeatedly sub-divided into more and more
specific sub-tasks. For example, the problem of placing concrete on site would have subactivities associated with placing forms, installing reinforcing steel, pouring concrete, finishing
the concrete, removing forms and others. Even more specifically, sub-tasks such as removal and
cleaning of forms after concrete placement can be defined. Even further, the sub-task "clean
concrete forms" could be subdivided into the various operations:
Transport forms from on-site storage and unload onto the cleaning station.
Position forms on the cleaning station.
Coat the form surface with an oil release agent for the next use.
Unload the form from the cleaning station and transport to the storage location.
This detailed task breakdown of the activity "clean concrete forms" would not generally be done
in standard construction planning, but it is essential in the process of programming or designing a
robot to undertake this activity since the various specific tasks must be well defined for a robot
implementation. [5]
It is generally advantageous to introduce an explicit hierarchy of work activities for the purpose
of simplifying the presentation and development of a schedule. For example, the initial plan
might define a single activity associated with "site clearance." Later, this single activity might be
sub-divided into "re-locating utilities," "removing vegetation," "grading", etc. However, these
activities could continue to be identified as sub-activities under the general activity of "site
clearance." This hierarchical structure also facilitates the preparation of summary charts and
reports in which detailed operations are combined into aggregate or "super"-activities.
More formally, a hierarchical approach to work task definition decomposes the work activity into
component parts in the form of a tree. Higher levels in the tree represent decision nodes or
summary activities, while branches in the tree lead to smaller components and work activities. A
variety of constraints among the various nodes may be defined or imposed, including precedence
relationships among different tasks as defined below. Technology choices may be decomposed to
decisions made at particular nodes in the tree. For example, choices on plumbing technology
might be made without reference to choices for other functional activities.
Of course, numerous different activity hierarchies can be defined for each construction plan. For
example, upper level activities might be related to facility components such as foundation
elements, and then lower level activity divisions into the required construction operations might
be made. Alternatively, upper level divisions might represent general types of activities such as
electrical work, while lower work divisions represent the application of these operations to
specific facility components. As a third alternative, initial divisions might represent different
spatial locations in the planned facility. The choice of a hierarchy depends upon the desired
scheme for summarizing work information and on the convenience of the planner. In
computerized databases, multiple hierarchies can be stored so that different aggregations or
views of the work breakdown structure can be obtained.
The number and detail of the activities in a construction plan is a matter of judgment or
convention. Construction plans can easily range between less than a hundred to many thousand
defined tasks, depending on the planner's decisions and the scope of the project. If subdivided
activities are too refined, the size of the network becomes unwieldy and the cost of planning
excessive. Sub-division yields no benefit if reasonably accurate estimates of activity durations
and the required resources cannot be made at the detailed work breakdown level. On the other
hand, if the specified activities are too coarse, it is impossible to develop realistic schedules and
details of resource requirements during the project. More detailed task definitions permit better
control and more realistic scheduling. It is useful to define separate work tasks for:
For example, the activity "prepare and check shop drawings" should be divided into a task for
preparation and a task for checking since different individuals are involved in the two tasks and
there may be a time lag between preparation and checking.
In practice, the proper level of detail will depend upon the size, importance and difficulty of the
project as well as the specific scheduling and accounting procedures which are adopted.
However, it is generally the case that most schedules are prepared with too little detail than too
much. It is important to keep in mind that task definition will serve as the basis for scheduling,
for communicating the construction plan and for construction monitoring. Completion of tasks
will also often serve as a basis for progress payments from the owner. Thus, more detailed task
definitions can be quite useful. But more detailed task breakdowns are only valuable to the extent
that the resources required, durations and activity relationships are realistically estimated for
each activity. Providing detailed work task breakdowns is not helpful without a commensurate
effort to provide realistic resource requirement estimates. As more powerful, computer-based
scheduling and monitoring procedures are introduced, the ease of defining and manipulating
tasks will increase, and the number of work tasks can reasonably be expected to expand.
Example 9-3: Task Definition for a Road Building Project
As an example of construction planning, suppose that we wish to develop a plan for a road
construction project including two culverts. [6] Initially, we divide project activities into three
categories as shown in Figure 9-2: structures, roadway, and general. This division is based on the
major types of design elements to be constructed. Within the roadway work, a further subdivision is into earthwork and pavement. Within these subdivisions, we identify clearing,
excavation, filling and finishing (including seeding and sodding) associated with earthwork, and
we define watering, compaction and paving sub-activities associated with pavement. Finally, we
note that the roadway segment is fairly long, and so individual activities can be defined for
different physical segments along the roadway path. In Figure 9-2, we divide each paving and
earthwork activity into activities specific to each of two roadway segments. For the culvert
construction, we define the sub-divisions of structural excavation, concreting, and reinforcing.
Even more specifically, structural excavation is divided into excavation itself and the required
backfill and compaction. Similarly, concreting is divided into placing concrete forms, pouring
concrete, stripping forms, and curing the concrete. As a final step in the structural planning,
detailed activities are defined for reinforcing each of the two culverts. General work activities are
defined for move in, general supervision, and clean up. As a result of this planning, over thirty
different detailed activities have been defined.
At the option of the planner, additional activities might also be defined for this project. For
example, materials ordering or lane striping might be included as separate activities. It might also
be the case that a planner would define a different hierarchy of work breakdowns than that
shown in Figure 9-2. For example, placing reinforcing might have been a sub-activity under
concreting for culverts. One reason for separating reinforcement placement might be to
emphasize the different material and resources required for this activity. Also, the division into
separate roadway segments and culverts might have been introduced early in the hierarchy. With
all these potential differences, the important aspect is to insure that all necessary activities are
included somewhere in the final plan.
illustrated by a network or graph in which the activities are represented by arrows as in Figure 90. The arrows in Figure 9-3 are called branches or links in the activity network, while the circles
marking the beginning or end of each arrow are called nodes or events. In this figure, links
represent particular activities, while the nodes represent milestone events.
More complicated precedence relationships can also be specified. For example, one activity
might not be able to start for several days after the completion of another activity. As a common
example, concrete might have to cure (or set) for several days before formwork is removed. This
restriction on the removal of forms activity is called a lag between the completion of one activity
(i.e., pouring concrete in this case) and the start of another activity (i.e., removing formwork in
this case). Many computer based scheduling programs permit the use of a variety of precedence
relationships.
Three mistakes should be avoided in specifying predecessor relationships for construction plans.
First, a circle of activity precedences will result in an impossible plan. For example, if activity A
precedes activity B, activity B precedes activity C, and activity C precedes activity A, then the
project can never be started or completed! Figure 9-4 illustrates the resulting activity network.
Fortunately, formal scheduling methods and good computer scheduling programs will find any
such errors in the logic of the construction plan.
Forgetting a necessary precedence relationship can be more insidious. For example, suppose that
installation of dry wall should be done prior to floor finishing. Ignoring this precedence
relationship may result in both activities being scheduled at the same time. Corrections on the
spot may result in increased costs or problems of quality in the completed project. Unfortunately,
there are few ways in which precedence omissions can be found other than with checks by
knowledgeable managers or by comparison to comparable projects. One other possible but little
used mechanism for checking precedences is to conduct a physical or computer based simulation
of the construction process and observe any problems.
Finally, it is important to realize that different types of precedence relationships can be defined
and that each has different implications for the schedule of activities:
Suppose that a site preparation and concrete slab foundation construction project consists of nine
different activities:
A. Site clearing (of brush and minor debris),
B. Removal of trees,
C. General excavation,
D. Grading general area,
E. Excavation for utility trenches,
F. Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete,
G. Installing sewer lines,
H. Installing other utilities,
I. Pouring concrete.
Activities A (site clearing) and B (tree removal) do not have preceding activities since they
depend on none of the other activities. We assume that activities C (general excavation) and D
(general grading) are preceded by activity A (site clearing). It might also be the case that the
planner wished to delay any excavation until trees were removed, so that B (tree removal) would
be a precedent activity to C (general excavation) and D (general grading). Activities E (trench
excavation) and F (concrete preparation) cannot begin until the completion of general excavation
and tree removal, since they involve subsequent excavation and trench preparation. Activities G
(install lines) and H (install utilities) represent installation in the utility trenches and cannot be
attempted until the trenches are prepared, so that activity E (trench excavation) is a preceding
activity. We also assume that the utilities should not be installed until grading is completed to
avoid equipment conflicts, so activity D (general grading) is also preceding activities G (install
sewers) and H (install utilities). Finally, activity I (pour concrete) cannot begin until the sewer
line is installed and formwork and reinforcement are ready, so activities F and G are preceding.
Other utilities may be routed over the slab foundation, so activity H (install utilities) is not
necessarily a preceding activity for activity I (pour concrete). The result of our planning are the
immediate precedences shown in Table 9-1.
TABLE 9-1 Precedence Relations for a Nine-Activity Project Example
Activity
Description
Predecessors
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Site clearing
Removal of trees
General excavation
Grading general area
Excavation for utility trenches
Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete
Installing sewer lines
Installing other utilities
Pouring concrete
----A
A
B,C
B,C
D,E
D,E
F,G
With this information, the next problem is to represent the activities in a network diagram and to
determine all the precedence relationships among the activities. One network representation of
these nine activities is shown in Figure 9-5, in which the activities appear as branches or links
between nodes. The nodes represent milestones of possible beginning and starting times. This
representation is called an activity-on-branch diagram. Note that an initial event beginning
activity is defined (Node 0 in Figure 9-5), while node 5 represents the completion of all
activities.
Alternatively, the nine activities could be represented by nodes and predecessor relationships by
branches or links, as in Figure 9-6. The result is an activity-on-node diagram. In Figure 9-6, new
activity nodes representing the beginning and the end of construction have been added to mark
these important milestones.
These network representations of activities can be very helpful in visualizing the various
activities and their relationships for a project. Whether activities are represented as branches (as
in Figure 9-5) or as nodes (as in Figure 9-5) is largely a matter of organizational or personal
choice. Some considerations in choosing one form or another are discussed in Chapter 10.
It is also notable that Table 9-1 lists only the immediate predecessor relationships. Clearly, there
are other precedence relationships which involve more than one activity. For example, "installing
sewer lines" (activity G) cannot be undertaken before "site clearing" (Activity A) is complete
since the activity "grading general area" (Activity D) must precede activity G and must follow
activity A. Table 9-1 is an implicit precedence list since only immediate predecessors are
recorded. An explicit predecessor list would include all of the preceding activities for activity G.
Table 9-2 shows all such predecessor relationships implied by the project plan. This table can be
produced by tracing all paths through the network back from a particular activity and can be
performed algorithmically. [7] For example, inspecting Figure 9-6 reveals that each activity
except for activity B depends upon the completion of activity A.
TABLE 9-2 All Activity Precedence Relationships for a Nine-Activity Project
Predecessor Activity
Direct Successor
Activities
All Successor
Activities
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
C,D
E,F
E,F
G,H
G,H
I
I
-----
E,F,G,H,I
G,H,I
G,H,I
I
I
---------
----A
A
A,B,C
A,B,C
A,B,C,D,E
A,B,C,D,E
A,B,C,D,E,F,G
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Predecessor
Duration (Days)
Excavate trench
Place formwork
Place reinforcing
Pour concrete
--Excavate trench
Place formwork
Place reinforcing
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.0
All formal scheduling procedures rely upon estimates of the durations of the various project
activities as well as the definitions of the predecessor relationships among tasks. The variability
of an activity's duration may also be considered. Formally, the probability distribution of an
activity's duration as well as the expected or most likely duration may be used in scheduling. A
probability distribution indicates the chance that a particular activity duration will occur. In
advance of actually doing a particular task, we cannot be certain exactly how long the task will
require.
A straightforward approach to the estimation of activity durations is to keep historical records of
particular activities and rely on the average durations from this experience in making new
duration estimates. Since the scope of activities are unlikely to be identical between different
projects, unit productivity rates are typically employed for this purpose. For example, the
duration of an activity Dij such as concrete formwork assembly might be estimated as:
(9.1)
where Aij is the required formwork area to assemble (in square yards), Pij is the average
productivity of a standard crew in this task (measured in square yards per hour), and Nij is the
number of crews assigned to the task. In some organizations, unit production time, Tij, is defined
as the time required to complete a unit of work by a standard crew (measured in hours per square
yards) is used as a productivity measure such that Tij is a reciprocal of Pij.
A formula such as Eq. (9.1) can be used for nearly all construction activities. Typically, the
required quantity of work, Aij is determined from detailed examination of the final facility
design. This quantity-take-off to obtain the required amounts of materials, volumes, and areas is a
very common process in bid preparation by contractors. In some countries, specialized quantity
surveyors provide the information on required quantities for all potential contractors and the
owner. The number of crews working, Nij, is decided by the planner. In many cases, the number
or amount of resources applied to particular activities may be modified in light of the resulting
project plan and schedule. Finally, some estimate of the expected work productivity, Pij must be
provided to apply Equation (9.1). As with cost factors, commercial services can provide average
productivity figures for many standard activities of this sort. Historical records in a firm can also
provide data for estimation of productivities.
The calculation of a duration as in Equation (9.1) is only an approximation to the actual activity
duration for a number of reasons. First, it is usually the case that peculiarities of the project make
the accomplishment of a particular activity more or less difficult. For example, access to the
forms in a particular location may be difficult; as a result, the productivity of assembling forms
may be lower than the average value for a particular project. Often, adjustments based on
engineering judgment are made to the calculated durations from Equation (9.1) for this reason.
In addition, productivity rates may vary in both systematic and random fashions from the
average. An example of systematic variation is the effect of learning on productivity. As a crew
becomes familiar with an activity and the work habits of the crew, their productivity will
typically improve. Figure 9-7 illustrates the type of productivity increase that might occur with
experience; this curve is called a learning curve. The result is that productivity Pij is a function of
the duration of an activity or project. A common construction example is that the assembly of
floors in a building might go faster at higher levels due to improved productivity even though the
transportation time up to the active construction area is longer. Again, historical records or
subjective adjustments might be made to represent learning curve variations in average
productivity. [8]
Random factors will also influence productivity rates and make estimation of activity durations
uncertain. For example, a scheduler will typically not know at the time of making the initial
schedule how skillful the crew and manager will be that are assigned to a particular project. The
productivity of a skilled designer may be many times that of an unskilled engineer. In the
absence of specific knowledge, the estimator can only use average values of productivity.
Weather effects are often very important and thus deserve particular attention in estimating
durations. Weather has both systematic and random influences on activity durations. Whether or
not a rainstorm will come on a particular day is certainly a random effect that will influence the
productivity of many activities. However, the likelihood of a rainstorm is likely to vary
systematically from one month or one site to the next. Adjustment factors for inclement weather
as well as meteorological records can be used to incorporate the effects of weather on durations.
As a simple example, an activity might require ten days in perfect weather, but the activity could
not proceed in the rain. Furthermore, suppose that rain is expected ten percent of the days in a
particular month. In this case, the expected activity duration is eleven days including one
expected rain day.
Finally, the use of average productivity factors themselves cause problems in the calculation
presented in Equation (9.1). The expected value of the multiplicative reciprocal of a variable is
not exactly equal to the reciprocal of the variable's expected value. For example, if productivity
on an activity is either six in good weather (ie., P=6) or two in bad weather (ie., P=2) and good
or bad weather is equally likely, then the expected productivity is P = (6)(0.5) + (2)(0.5) = 4, and
the reciprocal of expected productivity is 1/4. However, the expected reciprocal of productivity is
E[1/P] = (0.5)/6 + (0.5)/2 = 1/3. The reciprocal of expected productivity is 25% less than the
expected value of the reciprocal in this case! By representing only two possible productivity
values, this example represents an extreme case, but it is always true that the use of average
productivity factors in Equation (9.1) will result in optimistic estimates of activity durations. The
use of actual averages for the reciprocals of productivity or small adjustment factors may be used
to correct for this non-linearity problem.
The simple duration calculation shown in Equation (9.1) also assumes an inverse linear
relationship between the number of crews assigned to an activity and the total duration of work.
While this is a reasonable assumption in situations for which crews can work independently and
require no special coordination, it need not always be true. For example, design tasks may be
divided among numerous architects and engineers, but delays to insure proper coordination and
communication increase as the number of workers increase. As another example, insuring a
smooth flow of material to all crews on a site may be increasingly difficult as the number of
crews increase. In these latter cases, the relationship between activity duration and the number of
crews is unlikely to be inversely proportional as shown in Equation (9.1). As a result,
adjustments to the estimated productivity from Equation (9.1) must be made. Alternatively, more
complicated functional relationships might be estimated between duration and resources used in
the same way that nonlinear preliminary or conceptual cost estimate models are prepared.
One mechanism to formalize the estimation of activity durations is to employ a hierarchical
estimation framework. This approach decomposes the estimation problem into component parts
in which the higher levels in the hierarchy represent attributes which depend upon the details of
lower level adjustments and calculations. For example, Figure 9-8 represents various levels in
the estimation of the duration of masonry construction. [9] At the lowest level, the maximum
productivity for the activity is estimated based upon general work conditions. Table 9-4
illustrates some possible maximum productivity values that might be employed in this
estimation. At the next higher level, adjustments to these maximum productivities are made to
account for special site conditions and crew compositions; table 9-5 illustrates some possible
adjustment rules. At the highest level, adjustments for overall effects such as weather are
introduced. Also shown in Figure 9-8 are nodes to estimate down or unproductive time
associated with the masonry construction activity. The formalization of the estimation process
illustrated in Figure 9-8 permits the development of computer aids for the estimation process or
can serve as a conceptual framework for a human estimator.
TABLE 9-4 Maximum Productivity Estimates for Masonry Work
Masonry unit
size
8 inch block
Condition(s)
None
Maximum produstivity
achievable
400 units/day/mason
6 inch
Wall is "long"
430 units/day/mason
6 inch
370 units/day/mason
12 inch
Labor is nonunion
300 units/day/mason
4 inch
Wall is "long"
480 units/day/mason
Weather is "warm and dry"
or high-strength mortar is used
4 inch
4 inch
Wall is "long"
370 units/day/mason
Weather is not "warm and dry"
or high-strength mortar is not
used
4 inch
8 inch
8 inch
12 inch
12 inch
750 units/day/mason
550
Impact
Condition(s)
Adjustment
magnitude
(% of maximum)
Crew type
15%
Crew type
10%
Supporting
labor
20%
Supporting
labor
10%
Elevation
10%
12%
Visibility
7%
o
Temperature
Temperature is below 45 F
15%
Temperature
10%
Brick texture
10%
In addition to the problem of estimating the expected duration of an activity, some scheduling
procedures explicitly consider the uncertainty in activity duration estimates by using the
probabilistic distribution of activity durations. That is, the duration of a particular activity is assu
med to be a random variable that is distributed in a particular fashion. For example, an activity
duration might be assumed to be distributed as a normal or a beta distributed random variable as
illustrated in Figure 9-9. This figure shows the probability or chance of experiencing a particular
activity duration based on a probabilistic distribution. The beta distribution is often used to
characterize activity durations, since it can have an absolute minimum and an absolute maximum
of possible duration times. The normal distribution is a good approximation to the beta
distribution in the center of the distribution and is easy to work with, so it is often used as an
approximation.
If a standard random variable is used to characterize the distribution of activity durations, then
only a few parameters are required to calculate the probability of any particular duration. Still,
the estimation problem is increased considerably since more than one parameter is required to
characterize most of the probabilistic distribution used to represent activity durations. For the
beta distribution, three or four parameters are required depending on its generality, whereas the
normal distribution requires two parameters.
As an example, the normal distribution is characterized by two parameters, and
representing the average duration and the standard deviation of the duration, respectively.
Alternatively, the variance of the distribution
could be used to describe or characterize the
variability of duration times; the variance is the value of the standard deviation multiplied by
itself. From historical data, these two parameters can be estimated as:
(9.2)
(9.3)
where we assume that n different observations xk of the random variable x are available. This
estimation process might be applied to activity durations directly (so that xk would be a record of
an activity duration Dij on a past project) or to the estimation of the distribution of productivities
(so that xk would be a record of the productivity in an activity Pi) on a past project) which, in
turn, is used to estimate durations using Equation (9.4). If more accuracy is desired, the
estimation equations for mean and standard deviation, Equations (9.2) and (9.3) would be used to
estimate the mean and standard deviation of the reciprocal of productivity to avoid non-linear
effects. Using estimates of productivities, the standard deviation of activity duration would be
calculated as:
(9.4)
where
is the estimated standard deviation of the reciprocal of productivity that is
calculated from Equation (9.3) by substituting 1/P for x.
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activities. By making resource requirement estimates for each activity, the requirements for
particular resources during the course of the project can be identified. Potential bottlenecks can
thus be identified, and schedule, resource allocation or technology changes made to avoid
problems.
Many formal scheduling procedures can incorporate constraints imposed by the availability of
particular resources. For example, the unavailability of a specific piece of equipment or crew
may prohibit activities from being undertaken at a particular time. Another type of resource is
space. A planner typically will schedule only one activity in the same location at the same time.
While activities requiring the same space may have no necessary technical precedence,
simultaneous work might not be possible. Computational procedures for these various scheduling
problems will be described in Chapters 10 and 11. In this section, we shall discuss the estimation
of required resources.
The initial problem in estimating resource requirements is to decide the extent and number of
resources that might be defined. At a very aggregate level, resources categories might be limited
to the amount of labor (measured in man-hours or in dollars), the amount of materials required
for an activity, and the total cost of the activity. At this aggregate level, the resource estimates
may be useful for purposes of project monitoring and cash flow planning. For example, actual
expenditures on an activity can be compared with the estimated required resources to reveal any
problems that are being encountered during the course of a project. Monitoring procedures of
this sort are described in Chapter 12. However, this aggregate definition of resource use would
not reveal bottlenecks associated with particular types of equipment or workers.
More detailed definitions of required resources would include the number and type of both
workers and equipment required by an activity as well as the amount and types of materials.
Standard resource requirements for particular activities can be recorded and adjusted for the
special conditions of particular projects. As a result, the resources types required for particular
activities may already be defined. Reliance on historical or standard activity definitions of this
type requires a standard coding system for activities.
In making adjustments for the resources required by a particular activity, most of the problems
encountered in forming duration estimations described in the previous section are also present. In
particular, resources such as labor requirements will vary in proportion to the work productivity,
Pij, used to estimate activity durations in Equation (9.1). Mathematically, a typical estimating
equation would be:
(9.5)
where Rkij are the resources of type k required by activity ij, Dij is the duration of activity ij, Nij is
the number of standard crews allocated to activity ij, and Ukij is the amount of resource type k
used per standard crew. For example, if an activity required eight hours with two crews assigned
and each crew required three workers, the effort would be R = 8*2*3 = 48 labor-hours.
From the planning perspective, the important decisions in estimating resource requirements are
to determine the type of technology and equipment to employ and the number of crews to
allocate to each task. Clearly, assigning additional crews might result in faster completion of a
particular activity. However, additional crews might result in congestion and coordination
problems, so that work productivity might decline. Further, completing a particular activity
earlier might not result in earlier completion of the entire project, as discussed in Chapter 10.
Example 9-5: Resource Requirements for Block Foundations
In placing concrete block foundation walls, a typical crew would consist of three bricklayers and
two bricklayer helpers. If sufficient space was available on the site, several crews could work on
the same job at the same time, thereby speeding up completion of the activity in proportion to the
number of crews. In more restricted sites, multiple crews might interfere with one another. For
special considerations such as complicated scaffolding or large blocks (such as twelve inch
block), a bricklayer helper for each bricklayer might be required to insure smooth and productive
work. In general, standard crew composition depends upon the specific construction task and the
equipment or technology employed. These standard crews are then adjusted in response to
special characteristics of a particular site.
Example 9-6: Pouring Concrete Slabs
For large concrete pours on horizontal slabs, it is important to plan the activity so that the slab for
a full block can be completed continuously in a single day. Resources required for pouring the
concrete depend upon the technology used. For example, a standard crew for pumping concrete
to the slab might include a foreman, five laborers, one finisher, and one equipment operator.
Related equipment would be vibrators and the concrete pump itself. For delivering concrete with
a chute directly from the delivery truck, the standard crew might consist of a foreman, four
laborers and a finisher. The number of crews would be chosen to insure that the desired amount
of concrete could be placed in a single day. In addition to the resources involved in the actual
placement, it would also be necessary to insure a sufficient number of delivery trucks and
availability of the concrete itself.
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and retrieval operations are much more efficient with standard coding systems, as described in
Chapter 14.
In North America, the most widely used standard coding system for constructed facilities is the
MASTERFORMAT system developed by the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) of the
United States and Construction Specifications of Canada. [10] After development of separate
systems, this combined system was originally introduced as the Uniform Construction Index
(UCI) in 1972 and was subsequently adopted for use by numerous firms, information providers,
professional societies and trade organizations. The term MASTERFORMAT was introduced with
the 1978 revision of the UCI codes. MASTERFORMAT provides a standard identification code
for nearly all the elements associated with building construction.
MASTERFORMAT involves a hierarchical coding system with multiple levels plus keyword text
descriptions of each item. In the numerical coding system, the first two digits represent one of
the sixteen divisions for work; a seventeenth division is used to code conditions of the contract
for a constructor. In the latest version of the MASTERFORMAT, a third digit is added to indicate
a subdivision within each division. Each division is further specified by a three digit extension
indicating another level of subdivisions. In many cases, these subdivisions are further divided
with an additional three digits to identify more specific work items or materials. For example, the
code 16-950-960, "Electrical Equipment Testing" are defined as within Division 16 (Electrical)
and Sub-Division 950 (Testing). The keywords "Electrical Equipment Testing" is a standard
description of the activity. The seventeen major divisions in the UCI/CSI MASTERFORMAT
system are shown in Table 9-6. As an example, site work second level divisions are shown in
Table 9-7.
TABLE 9-6 Major Divisions in the Uniform Construction Index
0 Conditions of the contract
1 General requirements
2 Site work
3 Concrete
4 Masonry
5 Metals
6 Wood and plastics
7 Thermal and moisture prevention
8 Doors and windows
9 Finishes
10 Specialties
11 Equipment
12 Furnishings
13 Special construction
14 Conveying system
15 Mechanical
16 Electrical
The first four digits indicate the project for this activity; this code refers to an activity on project
number 0534. The next five digits refer to the MASTERFORMAT secondary division; referring
to Table 9-7, this activity would be 02220 "Excavating, Backfilling and Compacting." The next
two digits refer to specific activities defined within this MASTERFORMAT code; the digits 21
in this example might refer to excavation of column footings. The next character refers to the
block or general area on the site that the activity will take place; in this case, block A is indicated.
The digits 00 could be replaced by a code to indicate the responsible organization for the activity.
Finally, the characters cf34 refer to the particular design element number for which this
excavation is intended; in this case, column footing number 34 is intended. Thus, this activity is
to perform the excavation for column footing number 34 in block A on the site. Note that a
number of additional activities would be associated with column footing 34, including formwork
and concreting. Additional fields in the coding systems might also be added to indicate the
responsible crew for this activity or to identify the specific location of the activity on the site
(defined, for example, as x, y and z coordinates with respect to a base point).
As a second problem, the MASTERFORMAT system was originally designed for building
construction activities, so it is difficult to include various construction activities for other types of
facilities or activities associated with planning or design. Different coding systems have been
provided by other organizations in particular sub-fields such as power plants or roadways.
Nevertheless, MASTERFORMAT provides a useful starting point for organizing information in
different construction domains.
In devising organizational codes for project activities, there is a continual tension between
adopting systems that are convenient or expedient for one project or for one project manager and
systems appropriate for an entire organization. As a general rule, the record keeping and
communication advantages of standard systems are excellent arguments for their adoption. Even
in small projects, however, ad hoc or haphazard coding systems can lead to problems as the
system is revised and extended over time.
TABLE 9-7 Secondary Divisions in MASTERFORMAT for Site Work [11]
02-010 Subsurface investigation
02-012 Standard penetration tests
02-016 Seismic investigation
02-050 Demolition
02-060 Building demolition
02-070 Selective demolition
02-075 Concrete removal
02-080 Asbestos removal
02-100 Site preparation
02-110 Site clearing
02-115 Selective clearing
02-120 Structure moving
02-140
Dewatering
02-150
Railroad work
02-480
Marine work
02-160
02-170
Cofferdams
02-200 Earthwork
02-210 Grading
02-220 Excavating, backfilling and
02-230 compaction
02-240 Base course
02-250 Soil stabilization
02-270 Vibro-floatation
02-280 Slope protection
02-290 Soil treatment
Earth dams
02-300 Tunneling
02-305 Tunnel ventilation
02-310 Tunnel excavating
02-320 Tunnel lining
02-330 Tunnel grouting
02-340 Tunnel support systems
02-560
02-575
02-580
Airfield paving
Pavement repair
Pavement marking
02-600
02-660
Water distribution
02-680
Fuel distribution
02-700
02-760
Restoration of underground
pipelines
02-770
02-800
02-880
Site improvements
02-900
Landscaping
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9.8 References
1. Baracco-Miller, E., "Planning for Construction," Unpublished MS Thesis, Dept. of Civil
Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 1987.
2. Construction Specifications Institute, MASTERFORMAT - Master List of Section Titles
and Numbers, Releasing Industry Group, Alexandria, VA, 1983.
3. Jackson, M.J. Computers in Construction Planning and Control, Allen & Unwin,
London, 1986.
4. Sacerdoti, E.D. A Structure for Plans and Behavior, Elsevier North-Holland, New York,
1977.
5. Zozaya-Gorostiza, C., "An Expert System for Construction Project Planning,"
Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University,
1988.
Back to top
9.9 Problems
1. Develop an alternative work breakdown for the activities shown in Figure 9-2 (Example
9-3). Begin first with a spatial division on the site (i.e. by roadway segment and structure
2. Consider a cold weather structure built by inflating a special rubber tent, spraying water
on the tent, letting the water freeze, and then de-flating and removing the tent. Develop a
work breakdown for this structure, precedence relationships, and estimate the required
resources. Assume that the tent is twenty feet by fifteen feet by eight feet tall.
3. Develop a work breakdown and activity network for the project of designing a tower to
support a radio transmission antenna.
4. Select a vacant site in your vicinity and define the various activities and precedences
among these activities that would be required to prepare the site for the placement of prefabricated residences. Use the coding system for site work shown in Table 9-7 for
executing this problem.
5. Develop precedence relationships for the roadway project activities appearing in Figure
9-2 (Example 9-3).
6. Suppose that you have a robot capable of performing two tasks in manipulating blocks on
a large tabletop:
o PLACE BLOCK X ON BLOCK Y: This action places the block x on top of the
block y. Preconditions for applying this action are that both block x and block y
have clear tops (so there is no block on top of x or y). The robot will
automatically locate the specified blocks.
o
CLEAR BLOCK X: This action removes any block from the top of block x. A
necessary precondition for this action is that block x has one and only one block
on top. The block removed is placed on the table top.
3.
Develop an activity network for the robot actions in moving from position (b) to
position (c) in Figure 9-10. Prepare both activity-on-node and activity-on-link
representations. Are there alternative sequences of activities that the robot might
perform to accomplish the desired position?
3. Repeat Problem 6 above for the movement from position (a) to position (c) in Figure 910.
4. Repeat Problem 7 above for the movement from position (a) to position (c) in Figure 910.
5. Suppose that you have an enhanced robot with two additional commands capabilities:
o
CARRY BLOCKS X-Y to BLOCK Z: This action moves blocks X-Y to the top of
block Z. Blocks X-Y may involve any number of blocks as long as X is on the
bottom and Y is on the top. This move assumes that Z has a clear top.
CLEAR ALL BLOCK X TO BLOCK Z: This action moves all blocks on top of
block X to the top of block Z. If a block Z is not specified, then the blocks are
moved to the table top.
7. How does the additional capability described in Problem 10 change your answer to
Problems 8 and ?
Back to top
9.10 Footnotes
1. A.C. Doyle, "A Study in Scarlet," The Complete Sherlock Holmes, Doubleday & Co., pg. 83,
1930. Back
2. See, for example, Paulson, B.C., S.A. Douglas, A. Kalk, A. Touran and G.A. Victor,
"Simulation and Analysis of Construction Operations," ASCE Journal of Technical Topics in
Civil Engineering, 109(2), August, 1983, pp. 89, or Carr, R.I., "Simulation of Construction
Project Duration," ASCE Journal of the Construction Division, 105(2), June 1979, 117-128.
Back
3. For a description of a laser leveling system, see Paulson, B.C., Jr., "Automation and Robotics
for Construction," ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, (111)3, pp.
190-207, Sept. 1985. Back
4. See Baker, K.R., Introduction to Sequencing and Scheduling, John-Wiley and Sons, New
York, 1974, for an introduction to scheduling in manufacturing. Back
5. See Skibniewski, M.J. and C.T. Hendrickson, "Evaluation Method for Robotics
Implementation: Application to Concrete Form Cleaning," Proc. Second Intl. Conf. on Robotics
in Construction, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA., 1985, for more detail on the work
process design of a concrete form cleaning robot. Back
6. This example is adapted from Aras, R. and J. Surkis, "PERT and CPM Techniques in Project
Management," ASCE Journal of the Construction Division, Vol. 90, No. CO1, March, 1964.
Back
7. For a discussion of network reachability and connectivity computational algorithms, see
Chapters 2 and 7 in N. Christofides, Graph Theory: An Algorithmic Approach, London:
Academic Press, 1975, or any other text on graph theory. Back
8. See H.R. Thomas, C.T. Matthews and J.G. Ward, "Learning Curve Models of Construction
Productivity," ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 112, No. 2,
June 1986, pp. 245-258. Back
9. For a more extension discussion and description of this estimation procedure, see
Hendrickson, C., D. Martinelli, and D. Rehak, "Hierarchical Rule-based Activity Duration
Estimation," ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol 113, No. 2,
1987,pp. 288-301. Back
10. Information on the MASTERFORMAT coding system can be obtained from: The
Construction Specifications Institute, 601 Madison St., Alexandria VA 22314. Back
11. Source: MASTERFORMAT: Master List of Section Titles and Numbers, 1983 Edition, The
construction Speculations Institute, Alexandria, VA, 1983. Back
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11
9
(Advanced
(Construction
Scheduling
Planning)
Techniques)
Fundamental Scheduling
Procedures
Relevance of Construction
Schedules
The Critical Path Method
Calculations for Critical Path
Scheduling
Activity Float and Schedules
Presenting Project Schedules
Critical Path Scheduling for
Activity-on-Node and with
Leads, Lags, and Windows
Calculations for Scheduling
with Leads, Lags and Windows
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Resource Oriented
Scheduling
Scheduling with Resource
Constraints and Precedences
References
Problems
Footnotes
problems associated with formal scheduling mechanisms. But problems with the use of
scheduling techniques will continue until managers understand their proper use and limitations.
A basic distinction exists between resource oriented and time oriented scheduling techniques.
For resource oriented scheduling, the focus is on using and scheduling particular resources in an
effective fashion. For example, the project manager's main concern on a high-rise building site
might be to insure that cranes are used effectively for moving materials; without effective
scheduling in this case, delivery trucks might queue on the ground and workers wait for
deliveries on upper floors. For time oriented scheduling, the emphasis is on determining the
completion time of the project given the necessary precedence relationships among activities.
Hybrid techniques for resource leveling or resource constrained scheduling in the presence of
precedence relationships also exist. Most scheduling software is time-oriented, although virtually
all of the programs have the capability to introduce resource constaints.
This chapter will introduce the fundamentals of scheduling methods. Our discussion will
generally assume that computer based scheduling programs will be applied. Consequently, the
wide variety of manual or mechanical scheduling techniques will not be discussed in any detail.
These manual methods are not as capable or as convenient as computer based scheduling. With
the availability of these computer based scheduling programs, it is important for managers to
understand the basic operations performed by scheduling programs. Moreover, even if formal
methods are not applied in particular cases, the conceptual framework of formal scheduling
methods provides a valuable reference for a manager. Accordingly, examples involving hand
calculations will be provided throughout the chapter to facilitate understanding.
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Formally, critical path scheduling assumes that a project has been divided into activities of fixed
duration and well defined predecessor relationships. A predecessor relationship implies that one
activity must come before another in the schedule. No resource constraints other than those
implied by precedence relationships are recognized in the simplest form of critical path
scheduling.
To use critical path scheduling in practice, construction planners often represent a resource
constraint by a precedence relation. A constraint is simply a restriction on the options available
to a manager, and a resource constraint is a constraint deriving from the limited availability of
some resource of equipment, material, space or labor. For example, one of two activities
requiring the same piece of equipment might be arbitrarily assumed to precede the other activity.
This artificial precedence constraint insures that the two activities requiring the same resource
will not be scheduled at the same time. Also, most critical path scheduling algorithms impose
restrictions on the generality of the activity relationships or network geometries which are used.
In essence, these restrictions imply that the construction plan can be represented by a network
plan in which activities appear as nodes in a network, as in Figure 9-6. Nodes are numbered, and
no two nodes can have the same number or designation. Two nodes are introduced to represent
the start and completion of the project itself.
The actual computer representation of the project schedule generally consists of a list of
activities along with their associated durations, required resources and predecessor activities.
Graphical network representations rather than a list are helpful for visualization of the plan and
to insure that mathematical requirements are met. The actual input of the data to a computer
program may be accomplished by filling in blanks on a screen menu, reading an existing datafile,
or typing data directly to the program with identifiers for the type of information being provided.
With an activity-on-branch network, dummy activities may be introduced for the purposes of
providing unique activity designations and maintaining the correct sequence of activities. A
dummy activity is assumed to have no time duration and can be graphically represented by a
dashed line in a network. Several cases in which dummy activities are useful are illustrated in
Fig. 10-1. In Fig. 10-1(a), the elimination of activity C would mean that both activities B and D
would be identified as being between nodes 1 and 3. However, if a dummy activity X is
introduced, as shown in part (b) of the figure, the unique designations for activity B (node 1 to 2)
and D (node 1 to 3) will be preserved. Furthermore, if the problem in part (a) is changed so that
activity E cannot start until both C and D are completed but that F can start after D alone is
completed, the order in the new sequence can be indicated by the addition of a dummy activity Y,
as shown in part (c). In general, dummy activities may be necessary to meet the requirements of
specific computer scheduling algorithms, but it is important to limit the number of such dummy
link insertions to the extent possible.
Many computer scheduling systems support only one network representation, either activity-onbranch or acitivity-on-node. A good project manager is familiar with either representation.
Example 10-1: Formulating a network diagram
Suppose that we wish to form an activity network for a seven-activity network with the
following precedences:
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Predecessors
----A,B
C
C
D
D,E
Forming an activity-on-branch network for this set of activities might begin be drawing activities
A, B and C as shown in Figure 10-2(a). At this point, we note that two activities (A and B) lie
between the same two event nodes; for clarity, we insert a dummy activity X and continue to
place other activities as in Figure 10-2(b). Placing activity G in the figure presents a problem,
however, since we wish both activity D and activity E to be predecessors. Inserting an additional
dummy activity Y along with activity G completes the activity network, as shown in Figure 102(c). A comparable activity-on-node representation is shown in Figure 10-3, including project
start and finish nodes. Note that dummy activities are not required for expressing precedence
relationships in activity-on-node networks.
This is a linear programming problem since the objective value to be minimized and each of the
constraints is a linear equation. [1]
Rather than solving the critical path scheduling problem with a linear programming algorithm
(such as the Simplex method), more efficient techniques are available that take advantage of the
network structure of the problem. These solution methods are very efficient with respect to the
required computations, so that very large networks can be treated even with personal computers.
These methods also give some very useful information about possible activity schedules. The
programs can compute the earliest and latest possible starting times for each activity which are
consistent with completing the project in the shortest possible time. This calculation is of
particular interest for activities which are not on the critical path (or paths), since these activities
might be slightly delayed or re-scheduled over time as a manager desires without delaying the
entire project.
An efficient solution process for critical path scheduling based upon node labeling is shown in
Table 10-1. Three algorithms appear in the table. The event numbering algorithm numbers the
nodes (or events) of the project such that the beginning event has a lower number than the ending
event for each activity. Technically, this algorithm accomplishes a "topological sort" of the
activities. The project start node is given number 0. As long as the project activities fulfill the
conditions for an activity-on-branch network, this type of numbering system is always possible.
Some software packages for critical path scheduling do not have this numbering algorithm
programmed, so that the construction project planners must insure that appropriate numbering is
done.
TABLE 10-1 Critical Path Scheduling Algorithms (Activity-on-Branch Representation)
Event Numbering Algorithm
Step 1: Give the starting event number 0.
Step 2: Give the next number to any unnumbered event whose predecessor events
are each already numbered.
Repeat Step 2 until all events are numbered.
Earliest Event Time Algorithm
Step 1: Let E(0) = 0.
Step 2: For j = 1,2,3,...,n (where n is the last event), let
E(j) = maximum {E(i) + Dij}
where the maximum is computed over all activities (i,j) that have j as the ending event.
Latest Event Time Algorithm
Step 1: Let L(n) equal the required completion time of the project.
Note: L(n) must equal or exceed E(n).
Step 2: For i = n-1, n-2, ..., 0, let
L(i) = minimum {L(j) - Dij}
where the minimum is computed over all activities (i,j) that have i as the starting event.
The earliest event time algorithm computes the earliest possible time, E(i), at which each event,
i, in the network can occur. Earliest event times are computed as the maximum of the earliest
start times plus activity durations for each of the activities immediately preceding an event. The
earliest start time for each activity (i,j) is equal to the earliest possible time for the preceding
event E(i):
(10.2)
The earliest finish time of each activity (i,j) can be calculated by:
(10.3)
Activities are identified in this algorithm by the predecessor node (or event) i and the successor
node j. The algorithm simply requires that each event in the network should be examined in turn
beginning with the project start (node 0).
The latest event time algorithm computes the latest possible time, L(j), at which each event j in
the network can occur, given the desired completion time of the project, L(n) for the last event n.
Usually, the desired completion time will be equal to the earliest possible completion time, so
that E(n) = L(n) for the final node n. The procedure for finding the latest event time is analogous
to that for the earliest event time except that the procedure begins with the final event and works
backwards through the project activities. Thus, the earliest event time algorithm is often called a
forward pass through the network, whereas the latest event time algorithm is the the backward
pass through the network. The latest finish time consistent with completion of the project in the
desired time frame of L(n) for each activity (i,j) is equal to the latest possible time L(j) for the
succeeding event:
(10.4)
The latest start time of each activity (i,j) can be calculated by:
(10.5)
The earliest start and latest finish times for each event are useful pieces of information in
developing a project schedule. Events which have equal earliest and latest times, E(i) = L(i), lie
on the critical path or paths. An activity (i,j) is a critical activity if it satisfies all of the following
conditions:
(10.6)
(10.7)
(10.8)
Hence, activities between critical events are also on a critical path as long as the activity's earliest
start time equals its latest start time, ES(i,j) = LS(i,j). To avoid delaying the project, all the
activities on a critical path should begin as soon as possible, so each critical activity (i,j) must be
scheduled to begin at the earliest possible start time, E(i).
Example 10-2: Critical path scheduling calculations
Consider the network shown in Figure 10-4 in which the project start is given number 0. Then,
the only event that has each predecessor numbered is the successor to activity A, so it receives
number 1. After this, the only event that has each predecessor numbered is the successor to the
two activities B and C, so it receives number 2. The other event numbers resulting from the
algorithm are also shown in the figure. For this simple project network, each stage in the
numbering process found only one possible event to number at any time. With more than one
feasible event to number, the choice of which to number next is arbitrary. For example, if activity
C did not exist in the project for Figure 10-4, the successor event for activity A or for activity B
could have been numbered 1.
Once the node numbers are established, a good aid for manual scheduling is to draw a small
rectangle near each node with two possible entries. The left hand side would contain the earliest
time the event could occur, whereas the right hand side would contain the latest time the event
could occur without delaying the entire project. Figure 10-5 illustrates a typical box.
Figure 10-5 E(i) and L(i) Display for Hand Calculation of Critical Path for Activity-on-Branch
Representation
TABLE 10-2 Precedence Relations and Durations for a Nine Activity Project Example
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Description
Site clearing
Removal of trees
General excavation
Grading general area
Excavation for trenches
Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete
Installing sewer lines
Installing other utilities
Pouring concrete
Predecessors Duration
----A
A
B, C
B, C
D, E
D, E
F, G
4
3
8
7
9
12
2
5
6
For the network in Figure 10-4 with activity durations in Table 10-2, the earliest event time
calculations proceed as follows:
Step 1
E(0) = 0
Step 2
j=1
j=2
j=3
j=4
j=5
Thus, the minimum time required to complete the project is 30 since E(5) = 30. In this case, each
event had at most two predecessors.
For the "backward pass," the latest event time calculations are:
Step 1
L(5) = E(5) = 30
Step 2
j=4
j=3
j=2
j=1
j=0
In this example, E(0) = L(0), E(1) = L(1), E(2) = L(2), E(4) = L(4),and E(5) = L(5). As a result,
all nodes but node 3 are in the critical path. Activities on the critical path include A (0,1), C (1,2),
F (2,4) and I (4,5) as shown in Table 10-3.
TABLE 10-3 Identification of Activities on the Critical Path for a Nine-Activity Project
Activity
A (0,1)
B (0,2)
C (1,2)
D (1,3)
E (2,3)
F (2,4)
G (3,4)
H (3,5)
I (4,5)
Duration
Dij
4
3
8
7
9
12
2
5
6
0*
0
4*
4
12
12*
21
21
24
4*
12
12*
22
22
24*
24
30
30*
0
9
4
15
13
12
22
25
24
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Activities that have different early and late start times (i.e., ES(i,j) < LS(i,j)) can be scheduled to
start anytime between ES(i,j) and LS(i,j) as shown in Figure 10-6. The concept of float is to use
part or all of this allowable range to schedule an activity without delaying the completion of the
project. An activity that has the earliest time for its predecessor and successor nodes differing by
more than its duration possesses a window in which it can be scheduled. That is, if E(i) + Dij <
L(j), then some float is available in which to schedule this activity.
Float is a very valuable concept since it represents the scheduling flexibility or "maneuvering
room" available to complete particular tasks. Activities on the critical path do not provide any
flexibility for scheduling nor leeway in case of problems. For activities with some float, the
actual starting time might be chosen to balance work loads over time, to correspond with
material deliveries, or to improve the project's cash flow.
Of course, if one activity is allowed to float or change in the schedule, then the amount of float
available for other activities may decrease. Three separate categories of float are defined in
critical path scheduling:
1. Free float is the amount of delay which can be assigned to any one activity without
delaying subsequent activities. The free float, FF(i,j), associated with activity (i,j) is:
(10.9)
2. Independent float is the amount of delay which can be assigned to any one activity
without delaying subsequent activities or restricting the scheduling of preceding
activities. Independent float, IF(i,j), for activity (i,j) is calculated as:
(10.10)
3. Total float is the maximum amount of delay which can be assigned to any activity
without delaying the entire project. The total float, TF(i,j), for any activity (i,j) is
calculated as:
(10.11)
Each of these "floats" indicates an amount of flexibility associated with an activity. In all cases,
total float equals or exceeds free float, while independent float is always less than or equal to free
float. Also, any activity on a critical path has all three values of float equal to zero. The converse
of this statement is also true, so any activity which has zero total float can be recognized as being
on a critical path.
The various categories of activity float are illustrated in Figure 10-6 in which the activity is
represented by a bar which can move back and forth in time depending upon its scheduling start.
Three possible scheduled starts are shown, corresponding to the cases of starting each activity at
the earliest event time, E(i), the latest activity start time LS(i,j), and at the latest event time L(i).
The three categories of float can be found directly from this figure. Finally, a fourth bar is
included in the figure to illustrate the possibility that an activity might start, be temporarily
halted, and then re-start. In this case, the temporary halt was sufficiently short that it was less
than the independent float time and thus would not interfere with other activities. Whether or not
such work splitting is possible or economical depends upon the nature of the activity.
As shown in Table 10-3, activity D(1,3) has free and independent floats of 10 for the project
shown in Figure 10-4. Thus, the start of this activity could be scheduled anytime between time 4
and 14 after the project began without interfering with the schedule of other activities or with the
earliest completion time of the project. As the total float of 11 units indicates, the start of activity
D could also be delayed until time 15, but this would require that the schedule of other activities
be restricted. For example, starting activity D at time 15 would require that activity G would
begin as soon as activity D was completed. However, if this schedule was maintained, the overall
completion date of the project would not be changed.
Example 10-3: Critical path for a fabrication project
As another example of critical path scheduling, consider the seven activities associated with the
fabrication of a steel component shown in Table 10-4. Figure 10-7 shows the network diagram
associated with these seven activities. Note that an additional dummy activity X has been added
to insure that the correct precedence relationships are maintained for activity E. A simple rule to
observe is that if an activity has more than one immediate predecessor and another activity has at
least one but not all of these predecessor activity as a predecessor, a dummy activity will be
required to maintain precedence relationships. Thus, in the figure, activity E has activities B and
C as predecessors, while activity D has only activity C as a predecessor. Hence, a dummy
activity is required. Node numbers have also been added to this figure using the procedure
outlined in Table 10-1. Note that the node numbers on nodes 1 and 2 could have been exchanged
in this numbering process since after numbering node 0, either node 1 or node 2 could be
numbered next.
TABLE 10-4 Precedences and Durations for a Seven Activity Project
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Description
Preliminary design
Evaluation of design
Contract negotiation
Preparation of fabrication plant
Final design
Fabrication of Product
Shipment of Product to owner
Predecessors Duration
--A
--C
B, C
D, E
F
6
1
8
5
9
12
3
The results of the earliest and latest event time algorithms (appearing in Table 10-1) are shown in
Table 10-5. The minimum completion time for the project is 32 days. In this small project, all of
the event nodes except node 1 are on the critical path. Table 10-6 shows the earliest and latest
start times for the various activities including the different categories of float. Activities C,E,F,G
and the dummy activity X are seen to lie on the critical path.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
8
17
29
32
0
7
8
8
17
29
32
TABLE 10-6 Earliest Start, Latest Start and Activity Floats for a Seven Activity Project
Activity Earliest start time
A (0,1)
B (1,3)
C (0,2)
D (2,4)
E (3,4)
F (4,5)
G (5,6)
X (2,3)
0
6
0
8
8
17
29
8
0
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
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Network diagrams for projects have already been introduced. These diagrams provide a powerful
visualization of the precedences and relationships among the various project activities. They are
a basic means of communicating a project plan among the participating planners and project
monitors. Project planning is often conducted by producing network representations of greater
and greater refinement until the plan is satisfactory.
A useful variation on project network diagrams is to draw a time-scaled network. The activity
diagrams shown in the previous section were topological networks in that only the relationship
between nodes and branches were of interest. The actual diagram could be distorted in any way
desired as long as the connections between nodes were not changed. In time-scaled network
diagrams, activities on the network are plotted on a horizontal axis measuring the time since
project commencement. Figure 10-8 gives an example of a time-scaled activity-on-branch
diagram for the nine activity project in Figure 10-4. In this time-scaled diagram, each node is
shown at its earliest possible time. By looking over the horizontal axis, the time at which activity
can begin can be observed. Obviously, this time scaled diagram is produced as a display after
activities are initially scheduled by the critical path method.
Figure 10-8 Illustration of a Time Scaled Network Diagram with Nine Activities
Another useful graphical representation tool is a bar or Gantt chart illustrating the scheduled time
for each activity. The bar chart lists activities and shows their scheduled start, finish and
duration. An illustrative bar chart for the nine activity project appearing in Figure 10-4 is shown
in Figure 10-9. Activities are listed in the vertical axis of this figure, while time since project
commencement is shown along the horizontal axis. During the course of monitoring a project,
useful additions to the basic bar chart include a vertical line to indicate the current time plus
small marks to indicate the current state of work on each activity. In Figure 10-9, a hypothetical
project state after 4 periods is shown. The small "v" marks on each activity represent the current
state of each activity.
Bar charts are particularly helpful for communicating the current state and schedule of activities
on a project. As such, they have found wide acceptance as a project representation tool in the
field. For planning purposes, bar charts are not as useful since they do not indicate the
precedence relationships among activities. Thus, a planner must remember or record separately
that a change in one activity's schedule may require changes to successor activities. There have
been various schemes for mechanically linking activity bars to represent precedences, but it is
now easier to use computer based tools to represent such relationships.
Other graphical representations are also useful in project monitoring. Time and activity graphs
are extremely useful in portraying the current status of a project as well as the existence of
activity float. For example, Figure 10-10 shows two possible schedules for the nine activity
project described in Table 9-1 and shown in the previous figures. The first schedule would occur
if each activity was scheduled at its earliest start time, ES(i,j) consistent with completion of the
project in the minimum possible time. With this schedule, Figure 10-10 shows the percent of
project activity completed versus time. The second schedule in Figure 10-10 is based on latest
possible start times for each activity, LS(i,j). The horizontal time difference between the two
feasible schedules gives an indication of the extent of possible float. If the project goes according
to plan, the actual percentage completion at different times should fall between these curves. In
practice, a vertical axis representing cash expenditures rather than percent completed is often
used in developing a project representation of this type. For this purpose, activity cost estimates
are used in preparing a time versus completion graph. Separate "S-curves" may also be prepared
for groups of activities on the same graph, such as separate curves for the design, procurement,
foundation or particular sub-contractor activities.
Figure 10-10 Example of Percentage Completion versus Time for Alternative Schedules with a
Nine Activity Project
Time versus completion curves are also useful in project monitoring. Not only the history of the
project can be indicated, but the future possibilities for earliest and latest start times. For
example, Figure 10-11 illustrates a project that is forty percent complete after eight days for the
nine activity example. In this case, the project is well ahead of the original schedule; some
activities were completed in less than their expected durations. The possible earliest and latest
start time schedules from the current project status are also shown on the figure.
Figure 10-11 Illustration of Actual Percentage Completion versus Time for a Nine Activity
Project Underway
Graphs of resource use over time are also of interest to project planners and managers. An
example of resource use is shown in Figure 10-12 for the resource of total employment on the
site of a project. This graph is prepared by summing the resource requirements for each activity
at each time period for a particular project schedule. With limited resources of some kind, graphs
of this type can indicate when the competition for a resource is too large to accommodate; in
cases of this kind, resource constrained scheduling may be necessary as described in Section
10.9. Even without fixed resource constraints, a scheduler tries to avoid extreme fluctuations in
the demand for labor or other resources since these fluctuations typically incur high costs for
training, hiring, transportation, and management. Thus, a planner might alter a schedule through
the use of available activity floats so as to level or smooth out the demand for resources.
Resource graphs such as Figure 10-12 provide an invaluable indication of the potential trouble
spots and the success that a scheduler has in avoiding them.
Figure 10-12 Illustration of Resource Use over Time for a Nine Activity Project
A common difficulty with project network diagrams is that too much information is available for
easy presentation in a network. In a project with, say, five hundred activities, drawing activities
so that they can be seen without a microscope requires a considerable expanse of paper. A large
project might require the wall space in a room to include the entire diagram. On a computer
display, a typical restriction is that less than twenty activities can be successfully displayed at the
same time. The problem of displaying numerous activities becomes particularly acute when
accessory information such as activity identifying numbers or phrases, durations and resources
are added to the diagram.
One practical solution to this representation problem is to define sets of activities that can be
represented together as a single activity. That is, for display purposes, network diagrams can be
produced in which one "activity" would represent a number of real sub-activities. For example,
an activity such as "foundation design" might be inserted in summary diagrams. In the actual
project plan, this one activity could be sub-divided into numerous tasks with their own
precedences, durations and other attributes. These sub-groups are sometimes termed fragnets for
fragments of the full network. The result of this organization is the possibility of producing
diagrams that summarize the entire project as well as detailed representations of particular sets of
activities. The hierarchy of diagrams can also be introduced to the production of reports so that
summary reports for groups of activities can be produced. Thus, detailed representations of
particular activities such as plumbing might be prepared with all other activities either omitted or
The use of graphical project representations is an important and extremely useful aid to planners
and managers. Of course, detailed numerical reports may also be required to check the
peculiarities of particular activities. But graphs and diagrams provide an invaluable means of
rapidly communicating or understanding a project schedule. With computer based storage of
basic project data, graphical output is readily obtainable and should be used whenever possible.
Finally, the scheduling procedure described in Section 10.3 simply counted days from the initial
starting point. Practical scheduling programs include a calendar conversion to provide calendar
dates for scheduled work as well as the number of days from the initiation of the project. This
conversion can be accomplished by establishing a one-to-one correspondence between project
dates and calendar dates. For example, project day 2 would be May 4 if the project began at time
0 on May 2 and no holidays intervened. In this calendar conversion, weekends and holidays
would be excluded from consideration for scheduling, although the planner might overrule this
feature. Also, the number of work shifts or working hours in each day could be defined, to
provide consistency with the time units used is estimating activity durations. Project reports and
graphs would typically use actual calendar days.
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For manual application of the critical path algorithm shown in Table 10-7, it is helpful to draw a
square of four entries, representing the ES(i), EF(i), LS(i) and LF (i) as shown in Figure 10-14.
During the forward pass, the boxes for ES(i) and EF(i) are filled in. As an exercise for the reader,
the seven activity network in Figure 10-3 can be scheduled. Results should be identical to those
obtained for the activity-on-branch calculations.
Figure 10-14 ES, EF, LS and LF Display for Hand Calculation of Critical Path for Activity-onNode Representation
Building on the critical path scheduling calculations described in the previous sections, some
additional capabilities are useful. Desirable extensions include the definition of allowable
windows for activities and the introduction of more complicated precedence relationships among
activities. For example, a planner may wish to have an activity of removing formwork from a
new building component follow the concrete pour by some pre-defined lag period to allow
setting. This delay would represent a required gap between the completion of a preceding activity
and the start of a successor. The scheduling calculations to accommodate these complications
will be described in this section. Again, the standard critical path scheduling assumptions of
fixed activity durations and unlimited resource availability will be made here, although these
assumptions will be relaxed in later sections.
A capability of many scheduling programs is to incorporate types of activity interactions in
addition to the straightforward predecessor finish to successor start constraint used in Section
10.3. Incorporation of additional categories of interactions is often called precedence
diagramming. [2] For example, it may be the case that installing concrete forms in a foundation
trench might begin a few hours after the start of the trench excavation. This would be an example
of a start-to-start constraint with a lead: the start of the trench-excavation activity would lead the
start of the concrete-form-placement activity by a few hours. Eight separate categories of
precedence constraints can be defined, representing greater than (leads) or less than (lags) time
constraints for each of four different inter-activity relationships. These relationships are
summarized in Table 10-8. Typical precedence relationships would be:
Finish-to-finish leadss
The successor activity must have at least FF periods of work remaining at the completion
of the preceding activity.
Start-to-finish leads
The successor activity must have at least SF periods of work remaining at the start of the
preceding activity.
While the eight precedence relationships in Table 10-8 are all possible, the most common
precedence relationship is the straightforward direct precedence between the finish of a
preceding activity and the start of the successor activity with no required gap (so FS = 0).
TABLE 10-8 Eight Possible Activity Precedence Relationships
Relationship
Explanation
Finish-to-start Lag
Start-to-start Lead
Start-to-start Lag
Start-to-finish Lag
The computations with these lead and lag constraints are somewhat more complicated variations
on the basic calculations defined in Table 10-1 for critical path scheduling. For example, a startto-start lead would modify the calculation of the earliest start time to consider whether or not the
necessary lead constraint was met:
(10.12)
where SSij represents a start-to-start lead between activity (i,j) and any of the activities starting at
event j.
The possibility of interrupting or splitting activities into two work segments can be particularly
important to insure feasible schedules in the case of numerous lead or lag constraints. With
activity splitting, an activity is divided into two sub-activities with a possible gap or idle time
between work on the two subactivities. The computations for scheduling treat each sub-activity
separately after a split is made. Splitting is performed to reflect available scheduling flexibility or
to allow the development of a feasible schedule. For example, splitting may permit scheduling
the early finish of a successor activity at a date later than the earliest start of the successor plus
its duration. In effect, the successor activity is split into two segments with the later segment
scheduled to finish after a particular time. Most commonly, this occurs when a constraint
involving the finish time of two activities determines the required finish time of the successor.
When this situation occurs, it is advantageous to split the successor activity into two so the first
part of the successor activity can start earlier but still finish in accordance with the applicable
finish-to-finish constraint.
Finally, the definition of activity windows can be extremely useful. An activity window defines a
permissible period in which a particularly activity may be scheduled. To impose a window
constraint, a planner could specify an earliest possible start time for an activity (WES) or a latest
possible completion time (WLF). Latest possible starts (WLS) and earliest possible finishes
(WEF) might also be imposed. In the extreme, a required start time might be insured by setting
the earliest and latest window start times equal (WES = WLS). These window constraints would
be in addition to the time constraints imposed by precedence relationships among the various
project activities. Window constraints are particularly useful in enforcing milestone completion
requirements on project activities. For example, a milestone activity may be defined with no
duration but a latest possible completion time. Any activities preceding this milestone activity
cannot be scheduled for completion after the milestone date. Window constraints are actually a
special case of the other precedence constraints summarized above: windows are constraints in
which the precedecessor activity is the project start. Thus, an earliest possible start time window
(WES) is a start-to-start lead.
One related issue is the selection of an appropriate network representation. Generally, the
activity-on-branch representation will lead to a more compact diagram and is also consistent with
other engineering network representations of structures or circuits. [3] For example, the nine
activities shown in Figure 10-4 result in an activity-on-branch network with six nodes and nine
branches. In contrast, the comparable activity-on-node network shown in Figure 9-6 has eleven
nodes (with the addition of a node for project start and completion) and fifteen branches. The
activity-on-node diagram is more complicated and more difficult to draw, particularly since
branches must be drawn crossing one another. Despite this larger size, an important practical
reason to select activity-on-node diagrams is that numerous types of precedence relationships are
easier to represent in these diagrams. For example, different symbols might be used on each of
the branches in Figure 9-6 to represent direct precedences, start-to-start precedences, start-tofinish precedences, etc. Alternatively, the beginning and end points of the precedence links can
indicate the type of lead or lag precedence relationship. Another advantage of activity-on-node
representations is that the introduction of dummy links as in Figure 10-1 is not required. Either
representation can be used for the critical path scheduling computations described earlier. In the
absence of lead and lag precedence relationships, it is more common to select the compact
activity-on-branch diagram, although a unified model for this purpose is described in Chapter 11.
Of course, one reason to pick activity-on-branch or activity-on-node representations is that
particular computer scheduling programs available at a site are based on one representation or
the other. Since both representations are in common use, project managers should be familiar
with either network representation.
ES(i) + SF(i,k) - D(k) for each preceding activity with a S-F constraint.}
Step 2: Compute the earliest finish time EF(k) of activity k:
EF(k) = ES(k) + D(k).
Backward Pass Computations
Step 0: Set the latest finish and latest start of the terminal activity to the early start time:
LF(m) = LS(m) = ES(m) = EF(m)
Repeat the following steps for each activity in reverse order, k = m-1,m-2,...,2,1,0: Step 1:
Compute the latest finish time for activity k:
LF(k) = Min{ LF(m), WLF(k) for the latest finish window time;
WLS(k) + D(k) for the latest start window time;
LS(j) - FS(k,j) for each succeeding activity with a F-S constraint;
LF(j) - FF(k,j) for each succeeding activity with a FF constraint;
LS(j) - SS(k,j) + D(k) for each succeeding activity with a SS constraint;
LF(j) - SF(k,j) + D(k) for each succeeding activity with a SF constraint.}
Step 2: Compute the latest start time for activity k:
LS(k) = LF(k) - D(k)
The first step in the scheduling algorithm is to sort activities such that no higher numbered
activity precedes a lower numbered activity. With numbered activities, durations can be denoted
D(k), where k is the number of an activity. Other activity information can also be referenced by
the activity number. Note that node events used in activity-on-branch representations are not
required in this case.
The forward pass calculations compute an earliest start time (ES(k)) and an earliest finish time
(EF(k)) for each activity in turn (Table 10-9). In computing the earliest start time of an activity k,
the earliest start window time (WES), the earliest finish window time (WEF), and each of the
various precedence relationships must be considered. Constraints on finish times are included by
identifying minimum finish times and then subtracting the activity duration. A default earliest
start time of day 0 is also insured for all activities. A second step in the procedure is to identify
each activity's earliest finish time (EF(k)).
The backward pass calculations proceed in a manner very similar to those of the forward pass
(Table 10-9). In the backward pass, the latest finish and the latest start times for each activity are
calculated. In computing the latest finish time, the latest start time is identified which is
consistent with precedence constraints on an activity's starting time. This computation requires a
minimization over applicable window times and all successor activities. A check for a feasible
activity schedule can also be imposed at this point: if the late start time is less than the early start
time (LS(k) < ES(k)), then the activity schedule is not possible.
The result of the forward and backward pass calculations are the earliest start time, the latest start
time, the earliest finish time, and the latest finish time for each activity. The activity float is
computed as the latest start time less the earliest start time. Note that window constraints may be
instrumental in setting the amount of float, so that activities without any float may either lie on
the critical path or be constrained by an allowable window.
To consider the possibility of activity splitting, the various formulas for the forward and
backward passes in Table 10-9 must be modified. For example, in considering the possibility of
activity splitting due to start-to-start lead (SS), it is important to ensure that the preceding activity
has been underway for at least the required lead period. If the preceding activity was split and the
first sub-activity was not underway for a sufficiently long period, then the following activity
cannot start until the first plus the second sub-activities have been underway for a period equal to
SS(i,k). Thus, in setting the earliest start time for an activity, the calculation takes into account
the duration of the first subactivity (DA(i)) for preceding activities involving a start-to-start lead.
Algebraically, the term in the earliest start time calculation pertaining to start-to-start precedence
constraints (ES(i) + SS(i,k)) has two parts with the possibility of activity splitting:
(10.13)
(10.14)
ES(i) + SS(i,k)
EF(i) - D(i) + SS(i,k)
where DA(i) is the duration of the first sub-activity of the preceding activity.
The computation of earliest finish time involves similar considerations, except that the finish-tofinish and start-to-finish lag constraints are involved. In this case, a maximization over the
following terms is required:
(10.15)
Finally, the necessity to split an activity is also considered. If the earliest possible finish time is
greater than the earliest start time plus the activity duration, then the activity must be split.
Another possible extension of the scheduling computations in Table 10-9 would be to include a
duration modification capability during the forward and backward passes. This capability would
permit alternative work calendars for different activities or for modifications to reflect effects of
time of the year on activity durations. For example, the duration of outside work during winter
months would be increased. As another example, activities with weekend work permitted might
have their weekday durations shortened to reflect weekend work accomplishments.
Example 10-4: Impacts of precedence relationships and windows
To illustrate the impacts of different precedence relationships, consider a project consisting of
only two activities in addition to the start and finish. The start is numbered activity 0, the first
activity is number 1, the second activity is number 2, and the finish is activity 3. Each activity is
assumed to have a duration of five days. With a direct finish-to-start precedence relationship
without a lag, the critical path calculations reveal:
ES(0) = 0
ES(1) = 0
EF(1) = ES(1) + D(1) = 0 + 5 = 5
ES(2) = EF(1) + FS(1,2) = 5 + 0 = 5
EF(2) = ES(2) + D(2) = 5 + 5 = 10
ES(3) = EF(2) + FS(2,3) = 10 + 0 = 10 = EF(3)
So the earliest project completion time is ten days.
With a start-to-start precedence constraint with a two day lead, the scheduling calculations are:
ES(0) = 0
ES(1) = 0
EF(1) = ES(1) + D(1) = 0 + 5 = 5
ES(2) = ES(1) + SS(1,2) = 0 + 2 = 2
EF(2) = ES(2) + D(2) = 2 + 5 = 7
ES(3) = EF(2) + FS(2,3) = 7 + 0 = 7.
In this case, activity 2 can begin two days after the start of activity 1 and proceed in parallel with
activity 1. The result is that the project completion date drops from ten days to seven days.
Finally, suppose that a finish-to-finish precedence relationship exists between activity 1 and
activity 2 with a two day lag. The scheduling calculations are:
ES(0) = 0 = EF(0)
ES(1) = EF(0) + FS(0,1) = 0 + 0 = 0
EF(1) = ES(1) + D(1) = 0 + 5 = 5
ES(2) = EF(1) + FF(1,2) - D(2) = 5 + 2 - 5 = 2
EF(2) = ES(2) + D(2) = 2 + 5 = 7
ES(3) = EF(2) + FS(2,3) = 7 + 0 = 7 = EF(3)
In this case, the earliest finish for activity 2 is on day seven to allow the necessary two day lag
from the completion of activity 1. The minimum project completion time is again seven days.
Example 10-5: Scheduling in the presence of leads and windows.
As a second example of the scheduling computations involved in the presence of leads, lags and
windows, we shall perform the calculations required for the project shown in Figure 10-15. Start
and end activities are included in the project diagram, making a total of eleven activities. The
various windows and durations for the activities are summarized in Table 10-10 and the
precedence relationships appear in Table 10-11. Only earliest start (WES) and latest finish
(WLF) window constraints are included in this example problem. All four types of precedence
relationships are included in this project. Note that two activities may have more than one type of
precedence relationship at the same time; in this case, activities 2 and 5 have both S-S and F-F
precedences. In Figure 10-15, the different precedence relationships are shown by links
connecting the activity nodes. The type of precedence relationship is indicated by the beginning
or end point of each arrow. For example, start-to-start precedences go from the left portion of the
preceding activity to the left portion of the following activity. Application of the activity sorting
algorithm (Table 10-9) reveals that the existing activity numbers are appropriate for the critical
path algorithm. These activity numbers will be used in the forward and backward pass
calculations.
TABLE 10-10 Predecessors, Successors, Windows and Durations for an Example Project
Activity
Number
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Earliest Start
Window
Predecessors Successors
--0
0
1
0
2, 2
1, 3
4, 5
4, 5
6, 7
8, 9
1, 2, 4
3, 4, 6
5
6
7, 8
7, 8
9
9
10
10
---
------2
----6
---------
Latest Finish
Window
----------16
16
----16
---
Activity
Duration
0
2
5
4
3
5
6
2
4
5
0
Successor
1
2
4
3
4
6
5
5
6
7
8
7
8
9
9
10
10
Type
FS
FS
FS
SS
SF
FS
SS
FF
FS
SS
FS
FS
SS
FF
FS
FS
FS
Lead
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
2
0
2
0
1
3
4
0
0
0
During the forward pass calculations (Table 10-9), the earliest start and earliest finish times are
computed for each activity. The relevant calculations are:
ES(0) = EF(0) = 0
ES(1) = Max{0; EF(0) + FS(0,1)} = Max {0; 0 + 0} = 0.
EF(1) = ES(1) + D(1) = 0 + 2 = 2
ES(2) = Max{0; EF(0) + FS(0,1)} = Max{0; 0 + 0} = 0.
EF(2) = ES(2) + D(2) = 0 + 5 = 5
ES(3) = Max{0; WES(3); ES(1) + SS(1,3)} = Max{0; 2; 0 + 1} = 2.
EF(3) = ES(3) + D(3) = 2 + 4 = 6
Note that in the calculation of the earliest start for activity 3, the start was delayed to be
consistent with the earliest start time window.
ES(4) = Max{0; ES(0) + FS(0,1); ES(1) + SF(1,4) - D(4)} = Max{0; 0 + 0; 0+1-3} = 0.
EF(4) = ES(4) + D(4) = 0 + 3 = 3
ES(5) = Max{0; ES(2) + SS(2,5); EF(2) + FF(2,5) - D(5)} = Max{0; 0+2; 5+2-5} = 2
EF(5) = ES(5) + D(5) = 2 + 5 = 7
ES(6) = Max{0; WES(6); EF(1) + FS(1,6); EF(3) + FS(3,6)} = Max{0; 6; 2+2; 6+0} = 6
EF(6) = ES(6) + D(6) = 6 + 6 = 12
ES(7) = Max{0; ES(4) + SS(4,7); EF(5) + FS(5,7)} = Max{0; 0+2; 7+1} = 8
EF(7) = ES(7) + D(7) = 8 + 2 = 10
ES(8) = Max{0; EF(4) + FS(4,8); ES(5) + SS(5,8)} = Max{0; 3+0; 2+3} = 5
Earliest Start
0
0
0
Latest Start
0
0
1
Float
0
0
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
0
2
6
8
5
11
16
2
6
3
6
9
12
11
16
2
6
1
0
1
7
0
0
Back to top
available on a first-come, first-served basis (i.e. first call, first choice of available slots).
Penalties were imposed for making an unused reservation. The reservation system was also
computerized to permit rapid modification and updating of information as well as the provision
of standard reservation schedules to be distributed to all participants.
Example 10-7: Heuristic Resource Allocation
Suppose that a project manager has eleven pipe sections for which necessary support structures
and materials are available in a particular week. To work on these eleven pipe sections, five
crews are available. The allocation problem is to assign the crews to the eleven pipe sections.
This allocation would consist of a list of pipe sections allocated to each crew for work plus a
recommendation on the appropriate sequence to undertake the work. The project manager might
make assignments to minimize completion time, to insure continuous work on the pipeline (so
that one section on a pipeline run is not left incomplete), to reduce travel time between pipe
sections, to avoid congestion among the different crews, and to balance the workload among the
crews. Numerous trial solutions could be rapidly generated, especially with the aid of an
electronic spreadsheet. For example, if the nine sections had estimated work durations for each
of the fire crews as shown in Table 10-13, then the allocations shown in Figure 10-16 would
result in a minimum completion time.
TABLE 10-13 Estimated Required Time for Each Work Task in a Resource Allocation Problem
Section
Work Duration
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
constraints on the activities. Still others begin with a ranking or classification of activities into
priority groups for special attention in scheduling. [7] One type of heuristic may be better than
another for different types of problems. Certainly, projects in which only an occasional resource
constraint exists might be best scheduled starting from a critical path schedule. At the other
extreme, projects with numerous important resource constraints might be best scheduled by
considering critical resources first. A mixed approach would be to proceed simultaneously
considering precedence and resource constraints.
A simple modification to critical path scheduling has been shown to be effective for a number of
scheduling problems and is simple to implement. For this heuristic procedure, critical path
scheduling is applied initially. The result is the familiar set of possible early and late start times
for each activity. Scheduling each activity to begin at its earliest possible start time may result in
more than one activity requiring a particular resource at the same time. Hence, the initial
schedule may not be feasible. The heuristic proceeds by identifying cases in which activities
compete for a resource and selecting one activity to proceed. The start time of other activities are
then shifted later in time. A simple rule for choosing which activity has priority is to select the
activity with the earliest CPM late start time (calculated as LS(i,j) = L(j)-Dij) among those
activities which are both feasible (in that all their precedence requirements are satisfied) and
competing for the resource. This decision rule is applied from the start of the project until the end
for each type of resource in turn.
The order in which resources are considered in this scheduling process may influence the
ultimate schedule. A good heuristic to employ in deciding the order in which resources are to be
considered is to consider more important resources first. More important resources are those that
have high costs or that are likely to represent an important bottleneck for project completion.
Once important resources are scheduled, other resource allocations tend to be much easier. The
resulting scheduling procedure is described in Table 10-14.
The late start time heuristic described in Table 10-14 is only one of many possible scheduling
rules. It has the advantage of giving priority to activities which must start sooner to finish the
project on time. However, it is myopic in that it doesn't consider trade-offs among resource types
nor the changes in the late start time that will be occurring as activities are shifted later in time.
More complicated rules can be devised to incorporate broader knowledge of the project schedule.
These complicated rules require greater computational effort and may or may not result in
scheduling improvements in the end.
TABLE 10-14 A Resource-Oriented Scheduling Procedure
Step 1:
Rank all resources from the most important to the least important, and
number the resources i = 1,2,3,...,m.
Step 2:
Set the scheduled start time for each activity to the earliest start time.
For each resource i = 1,2,3,...,m in turn:
Step 3:
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
4
4
12
12
21
21
24
0
9
4
15
13
12
22
25
24
4
3
8
7
9
12
2
5
6
Figure 10-17 Resources Required over Time for Nine Activity Project: Schedule I
The first resource problem occurs on day 21 when activity F is underway and activities G and H
are scheduled to start. Applying the latest start time heuristic to decide which activity should
start, the manager should re-schedule activity H since it has a later value of LS(i,j), i.e., day 25
versus day 22 as seen in Table 10-15. Two workers become available on day 23 after the
completion of activity G. Since activity H is the only activity which is feasible at that time, it is
scheduled to begin. Two workers also become available on day 24 at the completion of activity F.
At this point, activity I is available for starting. If possible, it would be scheduled to begin with
only two workers until the completion of activity H on day 28. If all 4 workers were definitely
required, then activity I would be scheduled to begin on day 28. In this latter case, the project
duration would be 34 days, representing a 4 day increase due to the limited number of workers
available.
Example 10-10: Additional resource constraints.
As another example, suppose that only one piece of equipment was available for the project. As
seen in Figure 10-17, the original schedule would have to be significantly modified in this case.
Application of the resource constrained scheduling heuristic proceeds as follows as applied to the
original project schedule:
1. On day 4, activities D and C are both scheduled to begin. Since activity D has a
larger value of late start time, it should be re-scheduled.
2. On day 12, activities D and E are available for starting. Again based on a later
value of late start time (15 versus 13), activity D is deferred.
3. On day 21, activity E is completed. At this point, activity D is the only feasible
activity and it is scheduled for starting.
4. On day 28, the planner can start either activity G or activity H. Based on the later
start time heuristic, activity G is chosen to start.
5. On completion of activity G at day 30, activity H is scheduled to begin.
The resulting profile of resource use is shown in Figure 10-18. Note that activities F and I were
not considered in applying the heuristic since these activities did not require the special
equipment being considered. In the figure, activity I is scheduled after the completion of activity
H due to the requirement of 4 workers for this activity. As a result, the project duration has
increased to 41 days. During much of this time, all four workers are not assigned to an activity.
At this point, a prudent planner would consider whether or not it would be cost effective to
obtain an additional piece of equipment for the project.
Figure 10-18 Resources Required over Time for Nine Activity Project: Schedule II
Back to top
10.10 References
1. Au, T. Introduction to Systems Engineering--Deterministic Models, Addison-Wesley,
Reading, MA, 1973, Chapter 8.
2. Baker, K., An Introduction to Sequencing and Scheduling, John Wiley, 1974.
3. Jackson, M.J., Computers in Construction Planning and Control, Allen & Unwin, 1986.
4. Moder, J., C. Phillips and E. Davis, Project Management with CPM, PERT and
Precedence Diagramming, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, Third Edition,1983.
5. Willis, E. M., Scheduling Construction Projects, John Wiley & Sons, 1986.
Back to top
10.11 Problems
1 to 4.
Construct an activity-on-branch network from the precedence relationships of activities in
the project given in the table for the problem, Tables 10-16 to 10-19.
TABLE 10-16
Activity
A B C D E F
G H I J K L M N
6 7 1 14 5 8
3 5 3 4
12 6
F G H I J K L M
TABLE 10-17
Activity
A B CD E
5 6 3 4 5
8 3
3 2 72
7 4 3
TABLE 10-18
Activity
A B C D E F
H I J
6 12 16 5 3 10 9
5 3 10
TABLE 10-19
Activity
A B C D E F
Predecessors --- --- --- C C B,E A,F B,E B,E B,E D,J G,H I,K,L
Duration
3 6 2 3 8 5
10 6
5 to 8.
Determine the critical path and all slacks for the projects in Tables 10-16 to 10-19.
9. Suppose that the precedence relationships for Problem 1 in Table 10-16 are all direct
finish-to-start relationships with no lags except for the following:
o B to E: S-S with a lag of 2.
o
10. Suppose that the precedence relationships for Problem 2 in Table 10-17 are all direct
finish-to-start relationships with no lags except for the following:
o C to D: S-S with a lag of 1
o
A B C D E F GH I
Predecessors
Duration
3 5 1 1 7 6 4 3 6
TABLE 10-21
Activity
A B C D E F G H I
Predecessors
Duration
5 1 7 2 6 4 3 2 6 4
13. Develop a spreadsheet template that lists activity name, duration, required resources,
earliest possible start, latest possible start, and scheduled start in separate columns for a
maximum of twenty activities. By means of formulas, also develop the required resources
for each day of the project, based on the activities' scheduled start, expected durations,
and required resources. Use the spreadsheet graphics facility to plot the required
resources over time. Use your template to solve Problems 11 and 12 by altering
scheduled start times. (Hint: One way to prepare such a template is to use a column to
represent a single day with each cell in the column indicating resources required by a
particular activity on the particular day).
15. For the project defined in Table 10-20, suppose that you are limited to a maximum of 20
workers at any given time. Determine a desirable schedule for the project, using the late
start time heuristic described in Section 10.9.
16. For the project defined in Table 10-21, suppose that you are limited to a maximum of 15
workers at any given time. Determine a desirable schedule for the project, using the late
start time heuristic described in Section 10.9.
17. The examples and problems presented in this chapter generally make use of activity
duration and project durations as measured in working days from the beginning of the
project. Outline the procedures by which time measured in working days would be
converted into calendar days with single- or double-shift work. Could your procedure be
modified to allow some but not all activities to be underway on weekends?
Back to top
10.12 Footnotes
1. See Au, T., Introduction to Systems Engineering, Deterministic Models, Addison-Wesley
Publishing Company, Reading, MA, 1973, for a detailed description of linear programming as a
form of mathematical optimization. Back
2. See K.C. Crandall, "Project Planning with Precedence Lead/Lag Factors," Project
Management Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 3, Sept. 1973, pp. 18-27, or J.J. Moder, C.R. Phillips, and
E.W. Davis, Project Management with CPM, PERT and Precedence Diagramming, New York:
Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, third edition, 1983, chapter 4. Back
3. See C.T. Hendrickson and B.N. Janson, "A Common Network Formulation of Several Civil
Engineering Problems," Civil Engineering Systems, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1984, pp. 195-203. Back
4. See IBM, Project Management System, Application Description Manual, (H20-0210), IBM,
1968. Back
5. A variety of mathematical programming techniques have been proposed for this problem. For
a review and comparison, see J.H. Patterson, "A Comparison of Exact Approaches for Solving
the Multiple Constrained Resource Project Scheduling Problem," Management Science, Vol. 30,
No. 7, 1984, pp. 854-867. Back
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Use of Advanced Scheduling
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Scheduling with Uncertain
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Scheduling in Poorly
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Improving the Scheduling
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References
Problems
Footnotes
A final section in the chapter describes some possible improvements in the project scheduling
process. In Chapter 14, we consider issues of computer based implementation of scheduling
procedures, particularly in the context of integrating scheduling with other project management
procedures.
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A second simple approach to incorporation uncertainty also deserves mention. Many managers
recognize that the use of expected durations may result in overly optimistic schedules, so they
include a contingency allowance in their estimate of activity durations. For example, an activity
with an expected duration of two days might be scheduled for a period of 2.2 days, including a
ten percent contingency. Systematic application of this contingency would result in a ten percent
increase in the expected time to complete the project. While the use of this rule-of-thumb or
heuristic contingency factor can result in more accurate schedules, it is likely that formal
scheduling methods that incorporate uncertainty more formally are useful as a means of
obtaining greater accuracy or in understanding the effects of activity delays.
The most common formal approach to incorporate uncertainty in the scheduling process is to
apply the critical path scheduling process (as described in Section 10.3) and then analyze the
results from a probabilistic perspective. This process is usually referred to as the PERT
scheduling or evaluation method. [1] As noted earlier, the duration of the critical path represents
the minimum time required to complete the project. Using expected activity durations and
critical path scheduling, a critical path of activities can be identified. This critical path is then
used to analyze the duration of the project incorporating the uncertainty of the activity durations
along the critical path. The expected project duration is equal to the sum of the expected
durations of the activities along the critical path. Assuming that activity durations are
independent random variables, the variance or variation in the duration of this critical path is
calculated as the sum of the variances along the critical path. With the mean and variance of the
identified critical path known, the distribution of activity durations can also be computed.
The mean and variance for each activity duration are typically computed from estimates of
"optimistic" (ai,j), "most likely" (mi,j), and "pessimistic" (bi,j) activity durations using the
formulas:
(11.1)
and
(10.2)
where
and
are the mean duration and its variance, respectively, of an activity
(i,j). Three activity durations estimates (i.e., optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations)
are required in the calculation. The use of these optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates
stems from the fact that these are thought to be easier for managers to estimate subjectively. The
formulas for calculating the mean and variance are derived by assuming that the activity
durations follow a probabilistic beta distribution under a restrictive condition. [2] The probability
density function of a beta distributions for a random varable x is given by:
(11.3)
;
where k is a constant which can be expressed in terms of
different sets of values of
interval
and
and
(11.4)
If + = 4, then Eq. (11.4) will result in Eq. (11.1). Thus, the use of Eqs. (11.1) and (11.2)
impose an additional condition on the beta distribution. In particular, the restriction that
= (b - a)/6 is imposed.
Since absolute limits on the optimistic and pessimistic activity durations are extremely difficult
to estimate from historical data, a common practice is to use the ninety-fifth percentile of activity
durations for these points. Thus, the optimistic time would be such that there is only a one in
twenty (five percent) chance that the actual duration would be less than the estimated optimistic
time. Similarly, the pessimistic time is chosen so that there is only a five percent chance of
exceeding this duration. Thus, there is a ninety percent chance of having the actual duration of an
activity fall between the optimistic and pessimistic duration time estimates. With the use of
ninety-fifth percentile values for the optimistic and pessimistic activity duration, the calculation
of the expected duration according to Eq. (11.1) is unchanged but the formula for calculating the
activity variance becomes:
(11.5)
The difference between Eqs. (11.2) and (11.5) comes only in the value of the divisor, with 36
used for absolute limits and 10 used for ninety-five percentile limits. This difference might be
expected since the difference between bi,j and ai,j would be larger for absolute limits than for the
ninety-fifth percentile limits.
While the PERT method has been made widely available, it suffers from three major problems.
First, the procedure focuses upon a single critical path, when many paths might become critical
due to random fluctuations. For example, suppose that the critical path with longest expected
time happened to be completed early. Unfortunately, this does not necessarily mean that the
project is completed early since another path or sequence of activities might take longer.
Similarly, a longer than expected duration for an activity not on the critical path might result in
that activity suddenly becoming critical. As a result of the focus on only a single path, the PERT
method typically underestimates the actual project duration.
As a second problem with the PERT procedure, it is incorrect to assume that most construction
activity durations are independent random variables. In practice, durations are correlated with
one another. For example, if problems are encountered in the delivery of concrete for a project,
this problem is likely to influence the expected duration of numerous activities involving
concrete pours on a project. Positive correlations of this type between activity durations imply
that the PERT method underestimates the variance of the critical path and thereby produces overoptimistic expectations of the probability of meeting a particular project completion deadline.
Finally, the PERT method requires three duration estimates for each activity rather than the
single estimate developed for critical path scheduling. Thus, the difficulty and labor of estimating
activity characteristics is multiplied threefold.
As an alternative to the PERT procedure, a straightforward method of obtaining information
about the distribution of project completion times (as well as other schedule information) is
through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique calculates sets of artificial (but
realistic) activity duration times and then applies a deterministic scheduling procedure to each set
of durations. Numerous calculations are required in this process since simulated activity
durations must be calculated and the scheduling procedure applied many times. For realistic
project networks, 40 to 1,000 separate sets of activity durations might be used in a single
scheduling simulation. The calculations associated with Monte Carlo simulation are described in
the following section.
A number of different indicators of the project schedule can be estimated from the results of a
Monte Carlo simulation:
The probability that a particular activity will lie on the critical path. This is of interest
since the longest or critical path through the network may change as activity durations
change.
The disadvantage of Monte Carlo simulation results from the additional information about
activity durations that is required and the computational effort involved in numerous scheduling
applications for each set of simulated durations. For each activity, the distribution of possible
durations as well as the parameters of this distribution must be specified. For example, durations
might be assumed or estimated to be uniformly distributed between a lower and upper value. In
addition, correlations between activity durations should be specified. For example, if two
activities involve assembling forms in different locations and at different times for a project, then
the time required for each activity is likely to be closely related. If the forms pose some
problems, then assembling them on both occasions might take longer than expected. This is an
example of a positive correlation in activity times. In application, such correlations are
commonly ignored, leading to errors in results. As a final problem and discouragement, easy to
use software systems for Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules are not generally available.
This is particularly the case when correlations between activity durations are desired.
Another approach to the simulation of different activity durations is to develop specific scenarios
of events and determine the effect on the overall project schedule. This is a type of "what-if"
problem solving in which a manager simulates events that might occur and sees the result. For
example, the effects of different weather patterns on activity durations could be estimated and the
resulting schedules for the different weather patterns compared. One method of obtaining
information about the range of possible schedules is to apply the scheduling procedure using all
optimistic, all most likely, and then all pessimistic activity durations. The result is three project
schedules representing a range of possible outcomes. This process of "what-if" analysis is similar
to that undertaken during the process of construction planning or during analysis of project
crashing.
Example 11-1: Scheduling activities with uncertain time durations.
Suppose that the nine activity example project shown in Table 10-2 and Figure 10-4 of Chapter
10 was thought to have very uncertain activity time durations. As a result, project scheduling
considering this uncertainty is desired. All three methods (PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and
"What-if" simulation) will be applied.
Table 11-1 shows the estimated optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations for the nine
activities. From these estimates, the mean, variance and standard deviation are calculated. In this
calculation, ninety-fifth percentile estimates of optimistic and pessimistic duration times are
assumed, so that Equation (11.5) is applied. The critical path for this project ignoring uncertainty
in activity durations consists of activities A, C, F and I as found in Table 10-3 (Section 10.3).
Applying the PERT analysis procedure suggests that the duration of the project would be
approximately normally distributed. The sum of the means for the critical activities is 4.0 + 8.0 +
12.0 + 6.0 = 30.0 days, and the sum of the variances is 0.4 + 1.6 + 1.6 + 1.6 = 5.2 leading to a
standard deviation of 2.3 days.
With a normally distributed project duration, the probability of meeting a project deadline is
equal to the probability that the standard normal distribution is less than or equal to (PD - D)|
D where PD is the project deadline,
D is the expected duration and
D is the standard
deviation of project duration. For example, the probability of project completion within 35 days
is:
where z is the standard normal distribution tabulated value of the cumulative standard
distribution appears in Table B.1 of Appendix B.
Monte Carlo simulation results provide slightly different estimates of the project duration
characteristics. Assuming that activity durations are independent and approximately normally
distributed random variables with the mean and variances shown in Table 11-1, a simulation can
be performed by obtaining simulated duration realization for each of the nine activities and
applying critical path scheduling to the resulting network. Applying this procedure 500 times, the
average project duration is found to be 30.9 days with a standard deviation of 2.5 days. The
PERT result is less than this estimate by 0.9 days or three percent. Also, the critical path
considered in the PERT procedure (consisting of activities A, C, F and I) is found to be the
critical path in the simulated networks less than half the time.
TABLE 11-1 Activity Duration Estimates for a Nine Activity Project
Activity Optimistic Duration Most Likely Duration Pessimistic Duration Mean Variance
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
3
2
6
5
6
10
2
4
4
4
3
8
7
9
12
2
5
6
5
5
10
8
14
14
4
8
8
4.0
3.2
8.0
6.8
9.3
12.0
2.3
5.3
6.0
0.4
0.9
1.6
0.9
6.4
1.6
0.4
1.6
1.6
If there are correlations among the activity durations, then significantly different results can be
obtained. For example, suppose that activities C, E, G and H are all positively correlated random
variables with a correlation of 0.5 for each pair of variables. Applying Monte Carlo simulation
using 500 activity network simulations results in an average project duration of 36.5 days and a
standard deviation of 4.9 days. This estimated average duration is 6.5 days or 20 percent longer
than the PERT estimate or the estimate obtained ignoring uncertainty in durations. If correlations
like this exist, these methods can seriously underestimate the actual project duration.
Finally, the project durations obtained by assuming all optimistic and all pessimistic activity
durations are 23 and 41 days respectively. Other "what-if" simulations might be conducted for
cases in which peculiar soil characteristics might make excavation difficult; these soil
peculiarities might be responsible for the correlations of excavation activity durations described
above.
Results from the different methods are summarized in Table 11-2. Note that positive correlations
among some activity durations results in relatively large increases in the expected project
duration and variability.
TABLE 11-2 Project Duration Results from Various Techniques and Assumptions for an
Example
Procedure and Assumptions
Critical Path Method
PERT Method
Monte Carlo Simulation
No Duration Correlations
Positive Duration Correlations
"What-if" Simulations
Optimistic
Most Likely
Pessimistic
Standard Deviation
of Project Duration (days)
30.0
30.0
NA
2.3
30.9
36.5
2.5
4.9
23.0
30.0
41.0
NA
NA
NA
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(11.6)
where = 3.14159265 and ui-1 was the previously generated random number or a pre-selected
beginning or seed number. For example, a seed of u0 = 0.215 in Eq. (11.6) results in u1 = 0.0820,
and by applying this value of u1, the result is u2 = 0.1029. This formula is a special case of the
mixed congruential method of random number generation. While Equation (11.6) will result in a
series of numbers that have the appearance and the necessary statistical properties of true random
numbers, we should note that these are actually "pseudo" random numbers since the sequence of
numbers will repeat given a long enough time.
With a method of generating uniformly distributed random numbers, we can generate normally
distributed random numbers using two uniformly distributed realizations with the equations: [3]
(11.7)
with
where xk is the normal realization, x is the mean of x, x is the standard deviation of x, and u1
and u2 are the two uniformly distributed random variable realizations. For the case in which the
mean of an activity is 2.5 days and the standard deviation of the duration is 1.5 days, a
corresponding realization of the duration is s = 2.2365, t = 0.6465 and xk = 2.525 days, using the
two uniform random numbers generated from a seed of 0.215 above.
Correlated random number realizations may be generated making use of conditional
distributions. For example, suppose that the duration of an activity d is normally distributed and
correlated with a second normally distributed random variable x which may be another activity
duration or a separate factor such as a weather effect. Given a realization xk of x, the conditional
distribution of d is still normal, but it is a function of the value xk. In particular, the conditional
mean ( 'd|x = xk) and standard deviation ( 'd|x = xk) of a normally distributed variable given a
realization of the second variable is:
(11.8)
where dx is the correlation coefficient between d and x. Once xk is known, the conditional
mean and standard deviation can be calculated from Eq. (11.8) and then a realization of d
obtained by applying Equation (11.7).
Correlation coefficients indicate the extent to which two random variables will tend to vary
together. Positive correlation coefficients indicate one random variable will tend to exceed its
mean when the other random variable does the same. From a set of n historical observations of
two random variables, x and y, the correlation coefficient can be estimated as:
(11.9)
The value of xy can range from one to minus one, with values near one indicating a positive,
near linear relationship between the two random variables.
It is also possible to develop formulas for the conditional distribution of a random variable
correlated with numerous other variables; this is termed a multi-variate distribution. [4] Random
number generations from other types of distributions are also possible. [5] Once a set of random
variable distributions is obtained, then the process of applying a scheduling algorithm is required
as described in previous sections.
Example 11-2: A Three-Activity Project Example
Suppose that we wish to apply a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to a simple project involving
three activities in series. As a result, the critical path for the project includes all three activities.
We assume that the durations of the activities are normally distributed with the following
parameters:
Activity
A
B
C
Mean (Days)
2.5
5.6
2.4
To simulate the schedule effects, we generate the duration realizations shown in Table 11-3 and
calculate the project duration for each set of three activity duration realizations.
For the twelve sets of realizations shown in the table, the mean and standard deviation of the
project duration can be estimated to be 10.49 days and 4.06 days respectively. In this simple
case, we can also obtain an analytic solution for this duration, since it is only the sum of three
independent normally distributed variables. The actual project duration has a mean of 10.5 days,
1.53
2.67
3.36
0.39
2.50
2.77
3.83
3.73
1.06
1.17
1.68
0.37
6.94
4.83
6.86
7.65
5.82
8.71
2.05
10.57
3.68
0.86
9.47
6.66
1.04
2.17
5.56
2.17
1.74
4.03
1.10
3.24
2.47
1.37
0.13
1.70
9.51
9.66
15.78
10.22
10.06
15.51
6.96
17.53
7.22
3.40
11.27
8.72
(11.11)
(11.12)
where F(x) is the probability that the random variable is less than or equal to the value of x.
Generating a random variable from this distribution can be accomplished with a single uniform
random variable realization using the inversion method. In this method, a realization of the
cumulative probability function, F(x) is generated and the corresponding value of x is calculated.
Since the cumulative probability function varies from zero to one, the density function
realization can be obtained from the uniform value random number generator, Equation (11.6).
The calculation of the corresponding value of x is obtained from inverting Equation (11.12):
(11.1
3)
For example, if a = 3.2, m = 4.5 and b = 6.0, then x = 4.8 and x = 2.7. With a uniform
realization of u = 0.215, then for (m-a)/(b-a) 0.215, x will lie between a and m and is found to
have a value of 4.1 from Equation (11.13).
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At the other extreme, a manager might choose to complete the activity in the minimum possible
time, Dcij, but at a higher cost Ccij. This minimum completion time is commonly called the
activity crash time. The linear relationship shown in the figure between these two points implies
that any intermediate duration could also be chosen. It is possible that some intermediate point
may represent the ideal or optimal trade-off between time and cost for this activity.
What is the reason for an increase in direct cost as the activity duration is reduced? A simple case
arises in the use of overtime work. By scheduling weekend or evening work, the completion time
for an activity as measured in calendar days will be reduced. However, premium wages must be
paid for such overtime work, so the cost will increase. Also, overtime work is more prone to
accidents and quality problems that must be corrected, so indirect costs may also increase. More
generally, we might not expect a linear relationship between duration and direct cost, but some
convex function such as the nonlinear curve or the step function shown in Figure 11-4. A linear
function may be a good approximation to the actual curve, however, and results in considerable
analytical simplicity. [7]
With a linear relationship between cost and duration, the critical path time/cost tradeoff problem
can be defined as a linear programming optimization problem. In particular, let Rij represent the
rate of change of cost as duration is decreased, illustrated by the absolute value of the slope of
the line in Figure 11-3. Then, the direct cost of completing an activity is:
(11.14)
where the lower case cij and dij represent the scheduled duration and resulting cost of the activity
ij. The actual duration of an activity must fall between the minimum cost time (Dij) and the crash
time (Dcij). Also, precedence constraints must be imposed as described earlier for each activity.
Finally, the required completion time for the project or, alternatively, the costs associated with
different completion times must be defined. Thus, the entire scheduling problem is to minimize
total cost (equal to the sum of the cij values for all activities) subject to constraints arising from
(1) the desired project duration, PD, (2) the minimum and maximum activity duration
possibilities, and (3) constraints associated with the precedence or completion times of activities.
Algebraically, this is:
(11.15)
subject to the constraints:
where the notation is defined above and the decision variables are the activity durations dij and
event times x(k). The appropriate schedules for different project durations can be found by
repeatedly solving this problem for different project durations PD. The entire problem can be
solved by linear programming or more efficient algorithms which take advantage of the special
network form of the problem constraints.
One solution to the time-cost tradeoff problem is of particular interest and deserves mention here.
The minimum time to complete a project is called the project-crash time. This minimum
completion time can be found by applying critical path scheduling with all activity durations set
to their minimum values (Dcij). This minimum completion time for the project can then be used
in the time-cost scheduling problem described above to determine the minimum project-crash
cost. Note that the project crash cost is not found by setting each activity to its crash duration and
summing up the resulting costs; this solution is called the all-crash cost. Since there are some
activities not on the critical path that can be assigned longer duration without delaying the
project, it is advantageous to change the all-crash schedule and thereby reduce costs.
Heuristic approaches are also possible to the time/cost tradeoff problem. In particular, a simple
approach is to first apply critical path scheduling with all activity durations assumed to be at
minimum cost (Dij). Next, the planner can examine activities on the critical path and reduce the
scheduled duration of activities which have the lowest resulting increase in costs. In essence, the
planner develops a list of activities on the critical path ranked in accordance with the unit change
in cost for a reduction in the activity duration. The heuristic solution proceeds by shortening
activities in the order of their lowest impact on costs. As the duration of activities on the shortest
path are shortened, the project duration is also reduced. Eventually, another path becomes
critical, and a new list of activities on the critical path must be prepared. By manual or automatic
adjustments of this kind, good but not necessarily optimal schedules can be identified. Optimal
or best schedules can only be assured by examining changes in combinations of activities as well
as changes to single activities. However, by alternating between adjustments in particular activity
durations (and their costs) and a critical path scheduling procedure, a planner can fairly rapidly
devise a shorter schedule to meet a particular project deadline or, in the worst case, find that the
deadline is impossible of accomplishment.
This type of heuristic approach to time-cost tradeoffs is essential when the time-cost tradeoffs for
each activity are not known in advance or in the case of resource constraints on the project. In
these cases, heuristic explorations may be useful to determine if greater effort should be spent on
estimating time-cost tradeoffs or if additional resources should be retained for the project. In
many cases, the basic time/cost tradeoff might not be a smooth curve as shown in Figure 11-4,
but only a series of particular resource and schedule combinations which produce particular
durations. For example, a planner might have the option of assigning either one or two crews to a
particular activity; in this case, there are only two possible durations of interest.
Example 11-4: Time/Cost Trade-offs
The construction of a permanent transitway on an expressway median illustrates the possibilities
for time/cost trade-offs in construction work. [8] One section of 10 miles of transitway was built
in 1985 and 1986 to replace an existing contra-flow lane system (in which one lane in the
expressway was reversed each day to provide additional capacity in the peak flow direction).
Three engineers' estimates for work time were prepared:
975 calendar day, based on 750 working days at 5 days/week and 8 hours/day of
work plus 30 days for bad weather, weekends and holidays.
702 calendar days, based on 540 working days at 6 days/week and 10 hours/day
of work.
The savings from early completion due to operating savings in the contra-flow lane and contract
administration costs were estimated to be $5,000 per day.
In accepting bids for this construction work, the owner required both a dollar amount and a
completion date. The bidder's completion date was required to fall between 360 and 540 days. In
evaluating contract bids, a $5,000 credit was allowed for each day less than 540 days that a
bidder specified for completion. In the end, the successful bidder completed the project in 270
days, receiving a bonus of 5,000*(540-270) = $450,000 in the $8,200,000 contract. However, the
contractor experienced fifteen to thirty percent higher costs to maintain the continuous work
schedule.
Example 11-5: Time cost trade-offs and project crashing
As an example of time/cost trade-offs and project crashing, suppose that we needed to reduce the
project completion time for a seven activity product delivery project first analyzed in Section
10.3 as shown in Table 10-4 and Figure 10-7. Table 11-4 gives information pertaining to possible
reductions in time which might be accomplished for the various activities. Using the minimum
cost durations (as shown in column 2 of Table 11-4), the critical path includes activities C,E,F,G
plus a dummy activity X. The project duration is 32 days in this case, and the project cost is
$70,000.
TABLE 11-4 Activity Durations and Costs for a Seven Activity Project
Change in
Activity Minimum Cost Normal Duration Crash Cost Crash Duration Cost per Day
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
8
4
8
10
10
20
10
6
1
8
5
9
12
3
14
4
24
24
18
36
18
4
1
4
3
5
6
2
3
--4
7
2
2.7
8
Examining the unit change in cost, Rij shown in column 6 of Table 11-4, the lowest rate of
change occurs for activity E. Accordingly, a good heuristic strategy might be to begin by
crashing this activity. The result is that the duration of activity E goes from 9 days to 5 days and
the total project cost increases by $8,000. After making this change, the project duration drops to
28 days and two critical paths exist: (1) activities C,X,E,F and G, and (2) activities C, D, F, and
G.
Examining the unit changes in cost again, activity F has the lowest value of Rijj. Crashing this
activity results in an additional time savings of 6 days in the project duration, an increase in
project cost of $16,000, but no change in the critical paths. The activity on the critical path with
the next lowest unit change in cost is activity C. Crashing this activity to its minimum
completion time would reduce its duration by 4 days at a cost increase of $16,000. However, this
reduction does not result in a reduction in the duration of the project by 4 days. After activity C is
reduced to 7 days, then the alternate sequence of activities A and B lie on the critical path and
further reductions in the duration of activity C alone do not result in project time savings.
Accordingly, our heuristic corrections might be limited to reducing activity C by only 1 day,
thereby increasing costs by $4,000 and reducing the project duration by 1 day.
At this point, our choices for reducing the project duration are fairly limited. We can either
reduce the duration of activity G or, alternatively, reduce activity C and either activity A or
activity B by an identical amount. Inspection of Table 11-4 and Figure 10-4 suggest that reducing
activity A and activity C is the best alternative. Accordingly, we can shorten activity A to its
crash duration (from 6 days to 4 days) and shorten the duration of activity C (from 7 days to 5
days) at an additional cost of $6,000 + $8,000 = $14,000. The result is a reduction in the project
duration of 2 days.
Our last option for reducing the project duration is to crash activity G from 3 days to 2 days at an
increase in cost of $8,000. No further reductions are possible in this time since each activity
along a critical path (comprised of activities A, B, E, F and G) are at minimum durations. At this
point, the project duration is 18 days and the project cost is $120,000., representing a fifty
percent reduction in project duration and a seventy percent increase in cost. Note that not all the
activities have been crashed. Activity C has been reduced in duration to 5 days (rather than its 4
day crash duration), while activity D has not been changed at all. If all activities had been
crashed, the total project cost would have been $138,000, representing a useless expenditure of
$18,000. The change in project cost with different project durations is shown graphically in
Figure 11-5.
Figure 11-5 Project Cost Versus Time for a Seven Activity Project
x(2) + dB x(4)
x(1) + dD x(4)
x(2) + dE x(4)
x(4) + dF x(5)
x(5) + dG x(6)
x(0) = 0
4 dA 6
1 dB 1
4 dC 8
3 dD 5
5 dE 9
6 dF 12
2 dG 3
which can be solved for different values of project duration PD using a linear programming
algorithm or a network flow algorithm. Note that even with only seven activities, the resulting
linear programming problem is fairly large.
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easy-to-use methods for changing start times and allocated resources, and
utilities to run relevant scheduling algorithms such as the critical path method at
any time.
Figure 11-6 shows an example of a screen for this system. In Figure 11-6, a bar chart appears in
one window, a description of an activity in another window, and a graph of the use of a particular
resource over time appears in a third window. These different "windows" appear as sections on a
computer screen displaying different types of information. With these capabilities, a project
manager can call up different pictures of the construction plan and make changes to accomadate
objectives or constraints that are not formally represented. With rapid response to such changes,
the effects can be immediately evaluated.
Figure 11-6 Example of a Bar Chart and Other Windows for Interactive Scheduling
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The network model for representing project activities has been provided as an important
conceptual and computational framework for planning and scheduling. Networks not only
communicate the basic precedence relationships between activities, they also form the basis for
most scheduling computations.
As a practical matter, most project scheduling is performed with the critical path scheduling
method, supplemented by heuristic procedures used in project crash analysis or resource
constrained scheduling. Many commercial software programs are available to perform these
tasks. Probabilistic scheduling or the use of optimization software to perform time/cost trade-offs
is rather more infrequently applied, but there are software programs available to perform these
tasks if desired.
Rather than concentrating upon more elaborate solution algorithms, the most important
innovations in construction scheduling are likely to appear in the areas of data storage, ease of
use, data representation, communication and diagnostic or interpretation aids. Integration of
scheduling information with accounting and design information through the means of database
systems is one beneficial innovation; many scheduling systems do not provide such integration
of information. The techniques discussed in Chapter 14 are particularly useful in this regard.
With regard to ease of use, the introduction of interactive scheduling systems, graphical output
devices and automated data acquisition should produce a very different environment than has
existed. In the past, scheduling was performed as a batch operation with output contained in
lengthy tables of numbers. Updating of work progress and revising activity duration was a time
consuming manual task. It is no surprise that managers viewed scheduling as extremely
burdensome in this environment. The lower costs associated with computer systems as well as
improved software make "user friendly" environments a real possibility for field operations on
large projects.
Finally, information representation is an area which can result in substantial improvements.
While the network model of project activities is an extremely useful device to represent a project,
many aspects of project plans and activity inter-relationships cannot or have not been represented
in network models. For example, the similarity of processes among different activities is usually
unrecorded in the formal project representation. As a result, updating a project network in
response to new information about a process such as concrete pours can be tedious. What is
needed is a much more flexible and complete representation of project information. Some
avenues for change along these lines are discussed in Chapter 15.
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11.7 References
1. Bratley, Paul, Bennett L. Fox and Linus E. Schrage, A Guide to Simulation, SpringerVerlag, 1973.
2. Elmaghraby, S.E., Activity Networks: Project Planning and Control by Network Models,
John Wiley, New York, 1977.
3. Jackson, M.J., Computers in Construction Planning and Control, Allen & Unwin,
London, 1986.
4. Moder, J., C. Phillips and E. Davis, Project Management with CPM, PERT and
Precedence Diagramming, Third Edition, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, 1983.
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11.8 Problems
1. For the project defined in Problem 1 from Chapter 10, suppose that the early, most likely
and late time schedules are desired. Assume that the activity durations are approximately
normally distributed with means as given in Table 10-16 and the following standard
deviations: A: 4; B: 10; C: 1; D: 15; E: 6; F: 12; G: 9; H: 2; I: 4; J: 5; K: 1; L: 12; M: 2;
N: 1; O: 5. (a) Find the early, most likely and late time schedules, and (b) estimate the
probability that the project requires 25% more time than the expected duration.
2. For the project defined in Problem 2 from Chapter 10, suppose that the early, most likely
and late time schedules are desired. Assume that the activity durations are approximately
normally distributed with means as given in Table 10-17 and the following standard
deviations: A: 2, B: 2, C: 1, D: 0, E: 0, F: 2; G: 0, H: 0, I: 0, J: 3; K: 0, L: 3; M: 2; N: 1.
(a) Find the early, most likely and late time schedules, and (b) estimate the probability
that the project requires 25% more time than the expected duration.
3 to 6
The time-cost tradeoff data corresponding to each of the Problems 1 to 4 (in Chapter 10),
respectively are given in the table for the problem (Tables 11-5 to 11-8). Determine the
all-crash and the project crash durations and cost based on the early time schedule for the
project. Also, suggest a combination of activity durations which will lead to a project
completion time equal to three days longer than the project crash time but would result in
the (approximately) maximum savings.
TABLE 11-5
Activity
Shortest
Possible
Completion
Time
10
80
120
500
Normal
Completion
Time Cost 150 250
Change in
Cost Per
Day
20 30 Infinity 15 20 25 10 35
20
180
Infinity 25
15 30 Infinity 10
Earlier
Completion
TABLE 11-6
Activity
Shortest Possible
Completion Time
Normal Completion
Time Cost
400
Crash Completion
Time Cost
460
450 200 300 350 550 250 180 150 480 120 500 280
220
510 250 350 430 640 300 250 150 520 150 560 320
260
TABLE 11-7
Activity
D E
Shortest Possible
Completion Time 4
11
4 1
Normal
Completion
Time Cost
70 150
70
Crash Completion
Time Cost
90 210
100
TABLE 11-8
Activity
G H
K L M
Shortest Possible
Completion Time
Normal Completion
Time Cost
50
150
90
120
12. For the project defined in Problem 1 from Chapter 10, suppose that a Monte Carlo
simulation with ten repetitions is desired. Suppose further that the activity durations have
a triangular distribution with the following lower and upper bounds: A:4,8; B:4,9, C:
0.5,2; D: 10,20; E: 4,7; F: 7,10; G: 8, 12; H: 2,4; I: 4,7; J: 2,4; K: 2,6; L: 10, 15; M: 2,9;
N: 1,4; O: 4,11.
(a) Calculate the value of m for each activity given the upper and lower bounds and the
expected duration shown in Table 10-16.
(b) Generate a set of realizations for each activity and calculate the resulting project
duration.
(c) Repeat part (b) five times and estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project
duration.
13. Suppose that two variables both have triangular distributions and are correlated. The
resulting multi-variable probability density function has a triangular shape. Develop the
formula for the conditional distribution of one variable given the corresponding
realization of the other variable.
Back to top
11.9 Footnotes
1. See D. G. Malcolm, J.H. Rosenbloom, C.E. Clark, and W. Fazar, "Applications of a Technique
for R and D Program Evaluation," Operations Research, Vol. 7, No. 5, 1959, pp. 646-669. Back
2. See M.W. Sasieni, "A Note on PERT Times," Management Science, Vol. 32, No. 12, p 1986, p.
1652-1653, and T.K. Littlefield and P.H. Randolph, "An Answer to Sasieni's Question on Pert
Times," Management Science, Vol. 33, No. 10, 1987, pp. 1357-1359. For a general discussion of
the Beta distribution, see N.L. Johnson and S. Kotz, Continuous Univariate Distributions-2, John
Wiley & Sons, 1970, Chapter 24. Back
3. See T. Au, R.M. Shane, and L.A. Hoel, Fundamentals of Systems Engineering - Probabilistic
Models, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1972. Back
4. See N.L. Johnson and S. Kotz, Distributions in Statistics: Continuous Multivariate
Distributions, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1973. Back
5. See, for example, P. Bratley, B. L. Fox and L.E. Schrage, A Guide to Simulation, SpringerVerlag, New York, 1983. Back
6. There are exceptions to this rule, though. More workers may also mean additional training
burdens and more problems of communication and management. Some activities cannot be
easily broken into tasks for numerous individuals; some aspects of computer programming
provide notable examples. Indeed, software programming can be so perverse that examples exist
of additional workers resulting in slower project completion. See F.P. Brooks, jr. , The Mythical
Man-Month, Addison Wesley, Reading, MA 1975. Back
7. For a discussion of solution procedures and analogies of the general function time/cost
tradeoff problem, see C. Hendrickson and B.N. Janson, "A Common Network Flow Formulation
for Several Civil Engineering Problems," Civil Engineering Systems, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1984, pp.
195-203. Back
8. This example was abstracted from work performed in Houston and reported in U. Officer,
"Using Accelerated Contracts with Incentive Provisions for Transitway Construction in
Houston," Paper Presented at the January 1986 Transportation Research Board Annual
Conference, Washington, D.C. Back
9. This description is based on an interactive scheduling system developed at Carnegie Mellon
University and described in C. Hendrickson, C. Zozaya-Gorostiza, D. Rehak, E. Baracco-Miller
and P. Lim, "An Expert System for Construction Planning," ASCE Journal of Computing, Vol. 1,
No. 4, 1987, pp. 253-269. Back
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201
202
202.1
202.2
202.3
202.31
202.32
202.33
Substructure
Excavation and Shoring
Piling
Concrete Masonry
Mixing and Placing
Formwork
Reinforcing
203
204
204.1
204.2
204.3
204.4
204.5
204.6
204.61
204.62
204.63
204.64
204.65
204.66
204.67
204.68
204.69
204.7
204.71
204.72
204.73
204.74
204.72
Superstructure
Masonry Construction
Structural Steel
Wood Framing, Partitions, etc.
Exterior Finishes (brickwork, terra cotta, cut stone, etc.)
Roofing, Drains, Gutters, Flashing, etc.
Interior Finish and Trim
Finish Flooring, Stairs, Doors, Trim
Glass, Windows, Glazing
Marble, Tile, Terrazzo
Lathing and Plastering
Soundproofing and Insulation
Finish Hardware
Painting and Decorating
Waterproofing
Sprinklers and Fire Protection
Service Work
Electrical Work
Heating and Ventilating
Plumbing and Sewage
Air Conditioning
Fire Alarm, Telephone, Security, Miscellaneous
205
206
207
Fencing
provided for project cost accounts or for financial transactions. As a result, a standard set of cost
codes such as the MASTERFORMAT codes described in Chapter 9 may be adopted to identify
cost accounts along with project identifiers and extensions to indicate organization or job specific
needs. Similarly the use of databases or, at a minimum, inter-communicating applications
programs facilitate access to cost information, as described in Chapter 14.
Converting a final cost estimate into a project budget compatible with an organization's cost
accounts is not always a straightforward task. As described in Chapter 5, cost estimates are
generally disaggregated into appropriate functional or resource based project categories. For
example, labor and material quantities might be included for each of several physical
components of a project. For cost accounting purposes, labor and material quantities are
aggregated by type no matter for which physical component they are employed. For example,
particular types of workers or materials might be used on numerous different physical
components of a facility. Moreover, the categories of cost accounts established within an
organization may bear little resemblance to the quantities included in a final cost estimate. This
is particularly true when final cost estimates are prepared in accordance with an external
reporting requirement rather than in view of the existing cost accounts within an organization.
One particular problem in forming a project budget in terms of cost accounts is the treatment of
contingency amounts. These allowances are included in project cost estimates to accommodate
unforeseen events and the resulting costs. However, in advance of project completion, the source
of contingency expenses is not known. Realistically, a budget accounting item for contingency
allowance should be established whenever a contingency amount was included in the final cost
estimate.
A second problem in forming a project budget is the treatment of inflation. Typically, final cost
estimates are formed in terms of real dollars and an item reflecting inflation costs is added on as
a percentage or lump sum. This inflation allowance would then be allocated to individual cost
items in relation to the actual expected inflation over the period for which costs will be incurred.
Example 12-1: Project Budget for a Design Office
An example of a small project budget is shown in Table 12-2. This budget might be used by a
design firm for a specific design project. While this budget might represent all the work for this
firm on the project, numerous other organizations would be involved with their own budgets. In
Table 12-2, a summary budget is shown as well as a detailed listing of costs for individuals in the
Engineering Division. For the purpose of consistency with cost accounts and managerial control,
labor costs are aggregated into three groups: the engineering, architectural and environmental
divisions. The detailed budget shown in Table 12-2 applies only to the engineering division
labor; other detailed budgets amounts for categories such as supplies and the other work
divisions would also be prepared. Note that the salary costs associated with individuals are
aggregated to obtain the total labor costs in the engineering group for the project. To perform this
aggregation, some means of identifying individuals within organizational groups is required.
Accompanying a budget of this nature, some estimate of the actual man-hours of labor required
by project task would also be prepared. Finally, this budget might be used for internal purposes
alone. In submitting financial bills and reports to the client, overhead and contingency amounts
might be combined with the direct labor costs to establish an aggregate billing rate per hour. In
this case, the overhead, contingency and profit would represent allocated costs based on the
direct labor costs.
TABLE 12-2 Example of a Small
Project Budget for a Design Firm
Personnel
Architectural
Division
Engineering
Environmental
Division
Total
Budget
Summary
$ 67,251.00
45,372.00
28,235.00
$140,858.00
Other Direct
Expenses
Travel
Supplies
Communication
Computer Services
2,400.00
1,500.00
600.00
1,200.00
$ 5,700.00
Total
Overhead
$ 175,869.60
Contingency and
Profit
$ 95,700.00
Total
$ 418,127.60
Engineering
Personnel Detail
Senior Engineer
Associate Engineer
Engineer
Technician
Total
$ 11,562.00
21,365.00
12,654.00
$ 45,372.00
the various categories. Cost details associated with particular cost accounts would supplement
and support the aggregate budget shown in Table 12-3. A profit and a contingency amount might
be added to the basic budget of $1,715,147 shown in Table 12-3 for completeness.
TABLE 12-3 An Example of a Project Budget for a Wharf Project (Amounts in Thousands of
Dollars)
Material Cost Subcontract Work Temporary Work Machinery Cost Total Cost
Steel Piling
Tie-rod
Anchor-Wall
Backfill
Coping
Dredging
Fender
Other
Sub-total
$292,172
88,233
130,281
242,230
42,880
0
48,996
5,000
$849,800
$129,178
29,254
60,873
27,919
22,307
111,650
10,344
32,250
$423,775
$16,389
0
0
0
13,171
0
0
0
$29,560
Summary
Total of direct cost
Indirect Cost
Common Temporary Work
Common Machinery
Transportation
Office Operating Costs
Total of Indirect Cost
Total Project Cost
$0
0
0
0
0
0
1,750
0
$1,750
$437,739
117,487
191,154
300,149
78,358
111,650
61,090
37,250
$1,304,885
$1,304,885
19,320
80,934
15,550
294,458
410,262.
$1,715,147
Back to top
An example of forecasting used to assess the project status is shown in Table 12-4. In this
example, costs are reported in five categories, representing the sum of all the various cost
accounts associated with each category:
Budgeted Cost
The budgeted cost is derived from the detailed cost estimate prepared at the start of the
project. Examples of project budgets were presented in Section 12.2. The factors of cost
would be referenced by cost account and by a prose description.
Estimated total cost
The estimated or forecast total cost in each category is the current best estimate of costs
based on progress and any changes since the budget was formed. Estimated total costs are
the sum of cost to date, commitments and exposure. Methods for estimating total costs
are described below.
Cost Committed and Cost Exposure!! Estimated cost to completion in each category in
divided into firm commitments and estimated additional cost or exposure. Commitments
may represent material orders or subcontracts for which firm dollar amounts have been
committed.
Cost to Date
The actual cost incurred to date is recorded in column 6 and can be derived from the
financial record keeping accounts.
Over or (Under)
A final column in Table 12-4 indicates the amount over or under the budget for each
category. This column is an indicator of the extent of variance from the project budget;
items with unusually large overruns would represent a particular managerial concern.
Note that variance is used in the terminology of project control to indicate a difference
between budgeted and actual expenditures. The term is defined and used quite differently
in statistics or mathematical analysis. In Table 12-4, labor costs are running higher than
expected, whereas subcontracts are less than expected.
The current status of the project is a forecast budget overrun of $5,950. with 23 percent of the
budgeted project costs incurred to date.
TABLE 12-4 Illustration of a Job Status Report
Factor
Labor
Material
Subcontracts
Equipment
Other
Total
Budgeted
Cost
$99,406
88,499
198,458
37,543
72,693
496,509
Estimated Total
Cost
$102,342
88,499
196,323
37,543
81,432
506,139
Cost
Committed
$49,596
42,506
83,352
23,623
49,356
248,433
Cost
Exposure
--45,993
97,832
----143,825
Cost To
Date
$52,746
--15,139
13,920
32,076
113,881
Over or
(Under)
$2,936
0
(2,135)
0
8,739
5,950
For project control, managers would focus particular attention on items indicating substantial
deviation from budgeted amounts. In particular, the cost overruns in the labor and in the "other
expense category would be worthy of attention by a project manager in Table 12-4. A next step
would be to look in greater detail at the various components of these categories. Overruns in cost
might be due to lower than expected productivity, higher than expected wage rates, higher than
expected material costs, or other factors. Even further, low productivity might be caused by
inadequate training, lack of required resources such as equipment or tools, or inordinate amounts
of re-work to correct quality problems. Review of a job status report is only the first step in
project control.
The job status report illustrated in Table 12-4 employs explicit estimates of ultimate cost in each
category of expense. These estimates are used to identify the actual progress and status of a
expense category. Estimates might be made from simple linear extrapolations of the productivity
or cost of the work to date on each project item. Algebraically, a linear estimation formula is
generally one of two forms. Using a linear extrapolation of costs, the forecast total cost, Cf , is:
(12.1)
where Ct is the cost incurred to time t and pt is the proportion of the activity completed at time t.
For example, an activity which is 50 percent complete with a cost of $40,000 would be estimated
to have a total cost of $40,000/0.5 = $80,000. More elaborate methods of forecasting costs would
disaggregate costs into different categories, with the total cost the sum of the forecast costs in
each category.
Alternatively, the use of measured unit cost amounts can be used for forecasting total cost. The
basic formula for forecasting cost from unit costs is:
(12.2)
where Cf is the forecast total cost, W is the total units of work, and ct is the average cost per unit
of work experienced up to time t. If the average unit cost is $50 per unit of work on a particular
activity and 1,600 units of work exist, then the expected cost is (1,600)(50) = $80,000 for
completion.
The unit cost in Equation (12.2) may be replaced with the hourly productivity and the unit cost
per hour (or other appropriate time period), resulting in the equation:
(12.3)
where the cost per work unit (ct) is replaced by the time per unit, ht, divided by the cost per unit
of time, ut.
More elaborate forecasting systems might recognize peculiar problems associated with work on
particular items and modify these simple proportional cost estimates. For example, if
productivity is improving as workers and managers become more familiar with the project
activities, the estimate of total costs for an item might be revised downward. In this case, the
estimating equation would become:
(12.4)
where forecast total cost, Cf, is the sum of cost incurred to date, Ct, and the cost resulting from
the remaining work (W - Wt) multiplied by the expected cost per unit time period for the
remainder of the activity, ct.
As a numerical example, suppose that the average unit cost has been $50 per unit of work, but
the most recent figure during a project is $45 per unit of work. If the project manager was
assured that the improved productivity could be maintained for the remainder of the project
(consisting of 800 units of work out of a total of 1600 units of work), the cost estimate would be
(50)(800) + (45)(800) = $76,000 for completion of the activity. Note that this forecast uses the
actual average productivity achieved on the first 800 units and uses a forecast of productivity for
the remaining work. Historical changes in productivity might also be used to represent this type
of non-linear changes in work productivity on particular activities over time.
In addition to changes in productivities, other components of the estimating formula can be
adjusted or more detailed estimates substituted. For example, the change in unit prices due to
new labor contracts or material supplier's prices might be reflected in estimating future
expenditures. In essence, the same problems encountered in preparing the detailed cost estimate
are faced in the process of preparing exposure estimates, although the number and extent of
uncertainties in the project environment decline as work progresses. The only exception to this
rule is the danger of quality problems in completed work which would require re-construction.
Each of the estimating methods described above require current information on the state of work
accomplishment for particular activities. There are several possible methods to develop such
estimates, including [5]:
Hangars and Trim Complete: 30% of work and 90% of cumulative work.
Thus, a pipe section for which the ends have been welded would be reported as 60%
complete.
Opinion
Subjective judgments of the percentage complete can be prepared by inspectors,
supervisors or project managers themselves. Clearly, this estimated technique can be
biased by optimism, pessimism or inaccurate observations. Knowledgeable estimaters
and adequate field observations are required to obtain sufficient accuracy with this
method.
Cost Ratio
The cost incurred to date can also be used to estimate the work progress. For example, if
an activity was budgeted to cost $20,000 and the cost incurred at a particular date was
$10,000, then the estimated percentage complete under the cost ratio method would be
10,000/20,000 = 0.5 or fifty percent. This method provides no independent information
on the actual percentage complete or any possible errors in the activity budget: the cost
forecast will always be the budgeted amount. Consequently, managers must use the
estimated costs to complete an activity derived from the cost ratio method with extreme
caution.
Systematic application of these different estimating methods to the various project activities
enables calculation of the percentage complete or the productivity estimates used in preparing
job status reports.
In some cases, automated data acquisition for work accomplishments might be instituted. For
example, transponders might be moved to the new work limits after each day's activity and the
new locations automatically computed and compared with project plans. These measurements of
actual progress should be stored in a central database and then processed for updating the project
schedule. The use of database management systems in this fashion is described in Chapter 14.
Example 12-3: Estimated Total Cost to Complete an Activity
Suppose that we wish to estimate the total cost to complete piping construction activities on a
project. The piping construction involves 1,000 linear feet of piping which has been divided into
50 sections for management convenience. At this time, 400 linear feet of piping has been
installed at a cost of $40,000 and 500 man-hours of labor. The original budget estimate was
$90,000 with a productivity of one foot per man-hour, a unit cost of $60 per man hour and a total
material cost of $ 30,000. Firm commitments of material delivery for the $30,000 estimated cost
have been received.
The first task is to estimate the proportion of work completed. Two estimates are readily
available. First, 400 linear feet of pipe is in place out of a total of 1000 linear feet, so the
proportion of work completed is 400/1000 = 0.4 or 40%. This is the "units of work completed"
estimation method. Second, the cost ratio method would estimate the work complete as the cost-
to-date divided by the cost estimate or $40,000/$ 90,000 = 0.44 or 44%. Third, the "incremental
milestones" method would be applied by examining each pipe section and estimating a
percentage complete and then aggregating to determine the total percentage complete. For
example, suppose the following quantities of piping fell into four categories of completeness:
complete (100%)
hangars and trim complete (90%)
ends welded (60%)
spool in place (20%)
380 ft
20 ft
5 ft
0 ft
Then using the incremental milestones shown above, the estimate of completed work would be
380 + (20)(0.9) + (5)(0.6) + 0 = 401 ft and the proportion complete would be 401 ft/1,000 ft =
0.401 or 40% after rounding.
Once an estimate of work completed is available, then the estimated cost to complete the activity
can be calculated. First, a simple linear extrapolation of cost results in an estimate of $40,000/0.4
= $100,000. for the piping construction using the 40% estimate of work completed. This estimate
projects a cost overrun of 100,000 - 90,000 = $10,000.
Second, a linear extrapolation of productivity results in an estimate of (1000 ft.)(500 hrs/400 ft.)
($60/hr) + 30,000 = $105,000. for completion of the piping construction. This estimate suggests
a variance of 105,000 - 90,000 = $15,000 above the activity estimate. In making this estimate,
labor and material costs entered separately, whereas the two were implicitly combined in the
simple linear cost forecast above. The source of the variance can also be identified in this
calculation: compared to the original estimate, the labor productivity is 1.25 hours per foot or
25% higher than the original estimate.
Example 12-4: Estimated Total Cost for Completion
The forecasting procedures described above assumed linear extrapolations of future costs, based
either on the complete experience on the activity or the recent experience. For activities with
good historical records, it can be the case that a typically non-linear profile of cost expenditures
and completion proportions can be estimated. Figure 12-1 illustrates one possible non-linear
relationships derived from experience in some particular activity. The progress on a new job can
be compared to this historical record. For example, point A in Figure 12-1 suggests a higher
expenditure than is normal for the completion proportion. This point represents 40% of work
completed with an expenditure of 60% of the budget. Since the historical record suggests only
50% of the budget should be expended at time of 40% completion, a 60 - 50 = 10% overrun in
cost is expected even if work efficiency can be increased to historical averages. If comparable
cost overruns continue to accumulate, then the cost-to-complete will be even higher.
Internal reporting to project managers for day-to-day planning, monitoring and control.
Internal reporting to managers for aiding strategic planning.
External reports are constrained to particular forms and procedures by contractual reporting
requirements or by generally accepted accounting practices. Preparation of such external reports
is referred to as financial accounting. In contrast, cost or managerial accounting is intended to
aid internal managers in their responsibilities of planning, monitoring and control.
Project costs are always included in the system of financial accounts associated with an
organization. At the heart of this system, all expense transactions are recorded in a general
ledger. The general ledger of accounts forms the basis for management reports on particular
projects as well as the financial accounts for an entire organization. Other components of a
financial accounting system include:
The accounts payable journal is intended to provide records of bills received from
vendors, material suppliers, subcontractors and other outside parties. Invoices of charges
are recorded in this system as are checks issued in payment. Charges to individual cost
accounts are relayed or posted to the General Ledger.
Accounts receivable journals provide the opposite function to that of accounts payable.
In this journal, billings to clients are recorded as well as receipts. Revenues received are
relayed to the general ledger.
Job cost ledgers summarize the charges associated with particular projects, arranged in
the various cost accounts used for the project budget.
Inventory records are maintained to identify the amount of materials available at any
time.
In traditional bookkeeping systems, day to day transactions are first recorded in journals. With
double-entry bookkeeping, each transaction is recorded as both a debit and a credit to particular
accounts in the ledger. For example, payment of a supplier's bill represents a debit or increase to
a project cost account and a credit or reduction to the company's cash account. Periodically, the
transaction information is summarized and transferred to ledger accounts. This process is called
posting, and may be done instantaneously or daily in computerized systems.
In reviewing accounting information, the concepts of flows and stocks should be kept in mind.
Daily transactions typically reflect flows of dollar amounts entering or leaving the organization.
Similarly, use or receipt of particular materials represent flows from or to inventory. An account
balance represents the stock or cumulative amount of funds resulting from these daily flows.
Information on both flows and stocks are needed to give an accurate view of an organization's
state. In addition, forecasts of future changes are needed for effective management.
Information from the general ledger is assembled for the organization's financial reports,
including balance sheets and income statements for each period. These reports are the basic
products of the financial accounting process and are often used to assess the performance of an
organization. Table12-5 shows a typical income statement for a small construction firm,
indicating a net profit of $ 330,000 after taxes. This statement summarizes the flows of
transactions within a year. Table 12-6 shows the comparable balance sheet, indicated a net
increase in retained earnings equal to the net profit. The balance sheet reflects the effects of
income flows during the year on the overall worth of the organization.
TABLE 12-5 Illustration of an Accounting Statement of Income
Income Statement
for the year ended December 31, 19xx
$7,200,000
5,500,000
200,000
150,000
650,000
6,500,000
Operating Income
Interest Expense, net
Income before taxes
Income tax
Net income after tax
Cash dividends
Retained earnings, current year
Retention at beginning of year
Retained earnings at end of year
700,000
150,000
550,000
220,000
330,000
100,000
230,000
650,000
$880,000.
Amount
Cash
$150,000
Payments Receivable
750,000
Work in progress, not claimed
700,000
Work in progress, retention
200,000
Equipment at cost less accumulated depreciation 1,400,000
Total assets
$3,200,000
Liabilities and Equity
Liabilities
Accounts payable
Other items payable (taxes, wages, etc.)
Long term debts
Subtotal
Shareholders' funds
40,000 shares of common stock
(Including paid-in capital)
Retained Earnings
Subtotal
Total Liabilities and Equity
$950,000
50,000
500,000
1,500,000
820,000
880,000
1,700,000
$3,200,000
In the context of private construction firms, particular problems arise in the treatment of
uncompleted contracts in financial reports. Under the "completed-contract" method, income is
only reported for completed projects. Work on projects underway is only reported on the balance
sheet, representing an asset if contract billings exceed costs or a liability if costs exceed billings.
When a project is completed, the total net profit (or loss) is reported in the final period as
income. Under the "percentage-of-completion" method, actual costs are reported on the income
statement plus a proportion of all project revenues (or billings) equal to the proportion of work
completed during the period. The proportion of work completed is computed as the ratio of costs
incurred to date and the total estimated cost of the project. Thus, if twenty percent of a project
was completed in a particular period at a direct cost of $180,000 and on a project with expected
revenues of $1,000,000, then the contract revenues earned would be calculated as
$1,000,000(0.2) = $200,000. This figure represents a profit and contribution to overhead of
$200,000 - $180,000 = $20,000 for the period. Note that billings and actual receipts might be in
excess or less than the calculated revenues of $200,000. On the balance sheet of an organization
using the percentage-of-completion method, an asset is usually reported to reflect billings and the
estimated or calculated earnings in excess of actual billings.
As another example of the difference in the "percentage-of-completion" and the "completedcontract" methods, consider a three year project to construct a plant with the following cash flow
for a contractor:
Year Contract Expenses Payments Received
1
2
3
Total
$700,000
180,000
320,000
$1,200,000
$900,000
250,000
150,000
$1,300,000
The supervising architect determines that 60% of the facility is complete in year 1 and 75% in
year 2. Under the "percentage-of-completion" method, the net income in year 1 is $780,000
(60% of $1,300,000) less the $700,000 in expenses or $80,000. Under the "completed-contract"
method, the entire profit of $100,000 would be reported in year 3.
The "percentage-of-completion" method of reporting period earnings has the advantage of
representing the actual estimated earnings in each period. As a result, the income stream and
resulting profits are less susceptible to precipitate swings on the completion of a project as can
occur with the "completed contract method" of calculating income. However, the "percentage-ofcompletion" has the disadvantage of relying upon estimates which can be manipulated to obscure
the actual position of a company or which are difficult to reproduce by outside observers. There
are also subtleties such as the deferral of all calculated income from a project until a minimum
threshold of the project is completed. As a result, interpretation of the income statement and
balance sheet of a private organization is not always straightforward. Finally, there are tax
disadvantages from using the "percentage-of-completion" method since corporate taxes on
expected profits may become due during the project rather than being deferred until the project
completion. As an example of tax implications of the two reporting methods, a study of forty-
seven construction firms conducted by the General Accounting Office found that $280 million in
taxes were deferred from 1980 to 1984 through use of the "completed-contract" method. [6]
It should be apparent that the "percentage-of-completion" accounting provides only a rough
estimate of the actual profit or status of a project. Also, the "completed contract" method of
accounting is entirely retrospective and provides no guidance for management. This is only one
example of the types of allocations that are introduced to correspond to generally accepted
accounting practices, yet may not further the cause of good project management. Another
common example is the use of equipment depreciation schedules to allocate equipment purchase
costs. Allocations of costs or revenues to particular periods within a project may cause severe
changes in particular indicators, but have no real meaning for good management or profit over
the entire course of a project. As Johnson and Kaplan argue: [7]
Today's management accounting information, driven by the procedures and cycle of the
organization's financial reporting system, is too late, too aggregated and too distorted to be
relevant for managers' planning and control decisions....
Management accounting reports are of little help to operating managers as they attempt to reduce
costs and improve productivity. Frequently, the reports decrease productivity because they
require operating managers to spend time attempting to understand and explain reported
variances that have little to do with the economic and technological reality of their operations...
The managagement accounting system also fails to provide accurate product costs. Cost are
distributed to products by simplistic and arbitrary measures, usually direct labor based, that do
not represent the demands made by each product on the firm's resources.
As a result, complementary procedures to those used in traditional financial accounting are
required to accomplish effective project control, as described in the preceding and following
sections. While financial statements provide consistent and essential information on the
condition of an entire organization, they need considerable interpretation and supplementation to
be useful for project management.
Example 12-5: Calculating net profit
As an example of the calculation of net profit, suppose that a company began six jobs in a year,
completing three jobs and having three jobs still underway at the end of the year. Details of the
six jobs are shown in Table 12-7. What would be the company's net profit under, first, the
"percentage-of-completion" and, second, the "completed contract method" accounting
conventions?
TABLE 12-7 Example of Financial Records of Projects
Net Profit on Completed Contracts (Amounts in thousands of dollars)
Job 1
Job 2
Job 3
Total Net Profit on Completed Jobs
$1,436
356
- 738
$1,054
Job 4
Job 5
$4,200 $3,800
400
600
3,600 1,710
3,520 1,830
500 2,300
Job 6
$5,630
- 300
620
340
5,000
As shown in Table 12-7, a net profit of $1,054,000 was earned on the three completed jobs.
Under the "completed contract" method, this total would be total profit. Under the percentage-of
completion method, the year's expected profit on the projects underway would be added to this
amount. For job 4, the expected profits are calculated as follows:
Current contract price = Original contract price + Contract Changes
= 4,200 + 400 + 4,600
Credit or debit to date = Total costs to date - Payments received or due to date
= 3,600 - 3,520 = - 80
Contract value of uncompleted = Current contract price - Payments received or due
work = 4,600 - 3,520 = 1,080
Credit or debit to come = Contract value of uncompleted work - Estimated Cost to
Complete
= 1,080 - 500 = 580
Estimated final gross profit = Credit or debit to date + Credit or debit to come
= - 80. + 580. = 500
Estimated total project costs = Contract price - Gross profit
= 4,600 - 500 = 4,100
Estimated Profit to date = Estimated final gross profit x Proportion of work complete
= 500. (3600/4100)) = 439
Similar calculations for the other jobs underway indicate estimated profits to date of $166,000
for Job 5 and -$32,000 for Job 6. As a result, the net profit using the "percentage-of-completion"
method would be $1,627,000 for the year. Note that this figure would be altered in the event of
multi-year projects in which net profits on projects completed or underway in this year were
claimed in earlier periods.
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above), billings and receipts for billings to owners (for contractors), payable amounts to
suppliers and contractors, financing plan cash flows (for bonds or other financial instruments),
etc.
As an example of cash flow control, consider the report shown in Table 12-8. In this case, costs
are not divided into functional categories as in Table 12-4, such as labor, material, or equipment.
Table 12-8 represents a summary of the project status as viewed from different components of
the accounting system. Thus, the aggregation of different kinds of cost exposure or cost
commitment shown in Table 12-0 has not been performed. The elements in Table 12-8 include:
Costs
This is a summary of charges as reflected by the job cost accounts, including
expenditures and estimated costs. This row provides an aggregate summary of the
detailed activity cost information described in the previous section. For this example, the
total costs as of July 2 (7/02) were $ 8,754,516, and the original cost estimate was
$65,863,092, so the approximate percentage complete was 8,754,516/65,863,092 or
13.292%. However, the project manager now projects a cost of $66,545,263 for the
project, representing an increase of $682,171 over the original estimate. This new
estimate would reflect the actual percentage of work completed as well as other effects
such as changes in unit prices for labor or materials. Needless to say, this increase in
expected costs is not a welcome change to the project manager.
Billings
This row summarizes the state of cash flows with respect to the owner of the facility; this
row would not be included for reports to owners. The contract amount was $67,511,602,
and a total of $9,276,621 or 13.741% of the contract has been billed. The amount of
allowable billing is specified under the terms of the contract between an owner and an
engineering, architect, or constructor. In this case, total billings have exceeded the
estimated project completion proportion. The final column includes the currently
projected net earnings of $966,339. This figure is calculated as the contract amount less
projected costs: 67,511,602 - 66,545,263 = $966,339. Note that this profit figure does not
reflect the time value of money or discounting.
Payables
The Payables row summarizes the amount owed by the contractor to material suppliers,
labor or sub-contractors. At the time of this report, $6,719,103 had been paid to
subcontractors, material suppliers, and others. Invoices of $1,300,089 have accumulated
but have not yet been paid. A retention of $391,671 has been imposed on subcontractors,
and $343,653 in direct labor expenses have been occurred. The total of payables is equal
to the total project expenses shown in the first row of costs.
Receivables
This row summarizes the cash flow of receipts from the owner. Note that the actual
receipts from the owner may differ from the amounts billed due to delayed payments or
retainage on the part of the owner. The net-billed equals the gross billed less retention by
the owner. In this case, gross billed is $9,276,621 (as shown in the billings row), the net
billed is $8,761,673 and the retention is $514,948. Unfortunately, only $7,209,344 has
been received from the owner, so the open receivable amount is a (substantial!)
$2,067,277 due from the owner.
Cash Position
This row summarizes the cash position of the project as if all expenses and receipts for
the project were combined in a single account. The actual expenditures have been
$7,062,756 (calculated as the total costs of $8,754,516 less subcontractor retentions of
$391,671 and unpaid bills of $1,300,089) and $ 7,209,344 has been received from the
owner. As a result, a net cash balance of $146,588 exists which can be used in an interest
earning bank account or to finance deficits on other projects.
Each of the rows shown in Table 12-8 would be derived from different sets of financial accounts.
Additional reports could be prepared on the financing cash flows for bonds or interest charges in
an overdraft account.
TABLE 12-8 An Example of a Cash Flow Status Report
Costs
7/02
Billings
7/01
% Billed
13.741
Profit
966,339
Payables
7/01
Paid
Open
6,719,103 1,300,089
Retention
391,671
Labor
343,653
Receivable
7/02
Retention
514,948
Open
2,067,277
Cash Position
Paid
Received
7,062,756 7,209,344
Position
146,588
Total
8,754,516
The overall status of the project requires synthesizing the different pieces of information
summarized in Table 12-8. Each of the different accounting systems contributing to this table
provides a different view of the status of the project. In this example, the budget information
indicates that costs are higher than expected, which could be troubling. However, a profit is still
expected for the project. A substantial amount of money is due from the owner, and this could
turn out to be a problem if the owner continues to lag in payment. Finally, the positive cash
position for the project is highly desirable since financing charges can be avoided.
The job status reports illustrated in this and the previous sections provide a primary tool for
project cost control. Different reports with varying amounts of detail and item reports would be
prepared for different individuals involved in a project. Reports to upper management would be
summaries, reports to particular staff individuals would emphasize their responsibilities (eg.
purchasing, payroll, etc.), and detailed reports would be provided to the individual project
managers. Coupled with scheduling reports described in Chapter 10, these reports provide a
snapshot view of how a project is doing. Of course, these schedule and cost reports would have
to be tempered by the actual accomplishments and problems occurring in the field. For example,
if work already completed is of sub-standard quality, these reports would not reveal such a
problem. Even though the reports indicated a project on time and on budget, the possibility of rework or inadequate facility performance due to quality problems would quickly reverse that rosy
situation.
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Figure 12-2 Illustration of Planned versus Actual Progress over Time on a Project
Schedule adherence and the current status of a project can also be represented on geometric
models of a facility. For example, an animation of the construction sequence can be shown on a
computer screen, with different colors or other coding scheme indicating the type of activity
underway on each component of the facility. Deviations from the planned schedule can also be
portrayed by color coding. The result is a mechanism to both indicate work in progress and
schedule adherence specific to individual components in the facility.
In evaluating schedule progress, it is important to bear in mind that some activities possess float
or scheduling leeway, whereas delays in activities on the critical path will cause project delays.
In particular, the delay in planned progress at time t may be soaked up in activities' float (thereby
causing no overall delay in the project completion) or may cause a project delay. As a result of
this ambiguity, it is preferable to update the project schedule to devise an accurate protrayal of
the schedule adherence. After applying a scheduling algorithm, a new project schedule can be
obtained. For cash flow planning purposes, a graph or report similar to that shown in Figure 12-3
can be constructed to compare actual expenditures to planned expenditures at any time. This
process of re-scheduling to indicate the schedule adherence is only one of many instances in
which schedule and budget updating may be appropriate, as discussed in the next section.
on a project, then related activities are also likely to be delayed unless managerial changes are
made. Construction projects normally involve numerous activities which are closely related due
to the use of similar materials, equipment, workers or site characteristics. Expected cost changes
should also be propagated thoughout a project plan. In essence, duration and cost estimates for
future activities should be revised in light of the actual experience on the job. Without this
updating, project schedules slip more and more as time progresses. To perform this type of
updating, project managers need access to original estimates and estimating assumptions.
Unfortunately, most project cost control and scheduling systems do not provide many aids for
such updating. What is required is a means of identifying discrepancies, diagnosing the cause,
forecasting the effect, and propagating this effect to all related activities. While these steps can
be undertaken manually, computers aids to support interactive updating or even automatic
updating would be helpful. [8]
Beyond the direct updating of activity durations and cost estimates, project managers should
have mechanisms available for evaluating any type of schedule change. Updating activity
duration estimations, changing scheduled start times, modifying the estimates of resources
required for each activity, and even changing the project network logic (by inserting new
activities or other changes) should all be easily accomplished. In effect, scheduling aids should
be directly available to project managers. [9] Fortunately, local computers are commonly
available on site for this purpose.
Example 12-6: Schedule Updates in a Small Project
As an example of the type of changes that might be required, consider the nine activity project
described in Section 10.3 and appearing in Figure 12-4. Also, suppose that the project is four
days underway, with the current activity schedule and progress as shown in Figure 12-5. A few
problems or changes that might be encountered include the following:
1. An underground waterline that was previously unknown was ruptured during the
fifth day of the project. An extra day was required to replace the ruptured section,
and another day will be required for clean-up. What is the impact on the project
duration?
o To analyze this change with the critical path scheduling procedure, the
manager has the options of (1) changing the expected duration of activity
C, General Excavation, to the new expected duration of 10 days or (2)
splitting activity C into two tasks (corresponding to the work done prior to
the waterline break and that to be done after) and adding a new activity
representing repair and clean-up from the waterline break. The second
approach has the advantage that any delays to other activities (such as
activities D and E) could also be indicated by precedence constraints.
o
2. After 8 days on the project, the owner asks that a new drain be installed in
addition to the sewer line scheduled for activity G. The project manager
determines that a new activity could be added to install the drain in parallel with
Activity G and requiring 2 days. What is the effect on the schedule?
o
To avoid the labor associated with modifying the network and renumbering nodes, suppose that the project manager simply re-defined
activity G as installation of sewer and drain lines requiring 4 days. In this
case, activity G would appear on the critical path and the project duration
would increase. Adding an additional crew so that the two installations
could proceed in parallel might reduce the duration of activity G back to 2
days and thereby avoid the increase in the project duration.
Activity E has a total float of only 1 day. With the change in this activity's
duration, it will lie on the critical path and the project duration will
increase.
Figure 12-5 Current Schedule for an Example Project Presented as a Bar Chart
As can be imagined, it is not at all uncommon to encounter changes during the course of a
project that require modification of durations, changes in the network logic of precedence
relationships, or additions and deletions of activities. Consequently, the scheduling process
should be readily available as the project is underway.
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from particular activities could be rapidly identified since costs would be accumulated at such a
disaggregated level. As a result, project control becomes at once more precise and detailed.
Unfortunately, the development and maintenance of a work element database can represent a
large data collection and organization effort. As noted earlier, four hundred separate cost
accounts and four hundred activities would not be unusual for a construction project. The result
would be up to 400x400 = 160,000 separate work elements. Of course, not all activities involve
each cost account. However, even a density of two percent (so that each activity would have
eight cost accounts and each account would have eight associated activities on the average)
would involve nearly thirteen thousand work elements. Initially preparing this database
represents a considerable burden, but it is also the case that project bookkeepers must record
project events within each of these various work elements. Implementations of the "work
element" project control systems have typically fondered on the burden of data collection,
storage and book-keeping.
Until data collection is better automated, the use of work elements to control activities in large
projects is likely to be difficult to implement. However, certain segments of project activities can
profit tremendously from this type of organization. In particular, material requirements can be
tracked in this fashion. Materials involve only a subset of all cost accounts and project activities,
so the burden of data collection and control is much smaller than for an entire system. Moreover,
the benefits from integration of schedule and cost information are particularly noticeable in
materials control since delivery schedules are directly affected and bulk order discounts might be
identified. Consequently, materials control systems can reasonably encompass a "work element"
accounting system.
In the absence of a work element accounting system, costs associated with particular activities
are usually estimated by summing expenses in all cost accounts directly related to an activity
plus a proportion of expenses in cost accounts used jointly by two or more activities. The basis of
cost allocation would typically be the level of effort or resource required by the different
activities. For example, costs associated with supervision might be allocated to different
concreting activities on the basis of the amount of work (measured in cubic yards of concrete) in
the different activities. With these allocations, cost estimates for particular work activities can be
obtained.
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12.9 References
1. American Society of Civil Engineers, "Construction Cost Control," ASCE Manuals and
Reports of Engineering Practice No. 65, Rev. Ed., 1985.
2. Coombs, W.E. and W.J. Palmer, Construction Accounting and Financial Management,
McGraw-Hill, New York, 1977.
3. Halpin, D. W., Financial and Cost Concepts for Construction Management, John Wiley
& Sons, New York, 1985.
4. Johnson, H. Thomas and Robert S. Kaplan, Relevance Lost, The Rise and Fall of
Management Accounting, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA 1987.
5. Mueller, F.W. Integrated Cost and Schedule Control for Construction Projects, Van
Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York, 1986.
6. Tersine, R.J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, North Holland, 1982.
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12.10 Problems
1. Suppose that the expected expenditure of funds in a particular category was expected to
behave in a piecewise linear fashion over the course of the project. In particular, the
following points have been established from historical records for the percentage of
completion versus the expected expenditure (as a percentage of the budget):
0%
10%
25%
55%
90%
100%
on this activity given the percentage of completion. Assume that any over or
under expenditure will continue to grow proportionately during the course of the
project.
c. Using your formula, what is the expected expenditure as a percentage of the
activity budget if:
i. 15% of funds have been expended and 15% of the activity is complete.
ii. 30% of funds have been expended and 30% of the activity is complete.
iii. 80% of funds have been expended and 80% of the activity is complete.
2. Repeat Problem 1 parts (b) and (c) assuming that any over or under expenditure will not
continue to grow during the course of the project.
3. Suppose that you have been asked to take over as project manager on a small project
involving installation of 5,000 linear feet (LF) of metal ductwork in a building. The job
was originally estimated to take ten weeks, and you are assuming your duties after three
weeks on the project. The original estimate assumed that each linear foot of ductwork
would cost $10, representing $6 in labor costs and $4 in material cost. The expected
production rate was 500 linear feet of ductwork per week. Appearing below is the data
concerning this project available from your firm's job control information system:
12.00
8.57
6.67
4.00
4.00
4.00
16.00
12.57
10.67
Total Cost
Week
To Date
Week To Date
250
350
450
250
600
1,050
4,000 4,000
4,400 8,400
4,800 13,200
a. Based on an extrapolation using the average productivity and cost for all three
weeks, forecast the completion time, cost and variance from original estimates.
b. Suppose that you assume that the productivity achieved in week 3 would
continue for the remainder of the project. How would this affect your forecasts in
(a)? Prepare new forecasts based on this assumption.
4. What criticisms could you make of the job status report in the previous problem from the
viewpoint of good project management?
5. Suppose that the following estimate was made for excavation of 120,000 cubic yards on a
site:
Resource
Quantity
Cost
Resource
Quantity
Cost
Monthly
Number of
Month Expenditure Work Units Completed
1
2
3
4
5
6
$1,200
$1,250
$1,260
$1,280
$1,290
$1,280
30
32
38
42
42
42
Monthly
Number of
Month Expenditure Work Units Completed
1
2
3
4
5
6
$1,200
$1,250
$1,260
$1,280
$1,290
$1,300
30
35
45
48
52
54
10. Suppose that the following ten activities were agreed upon in a contract between an
owner and an engineer.
2
5
5
2
3
8
4
4
----B
C
B
--E, F
E, F
7
9
8
4
1
7
6
5
I
J
11
2
B
E, F
10
7
$64
64
128
12.8
$140.8
$56,000
$60,800
The markup on the activities' costs included 100% overhead and a profit of 10% on all
costs (including overhead). This job was suspended for one year after completion of the
first four activities, and the owner paid a total of $60,800 to the engineer. Now the owner
wishes to re-commence the job. However, general inflation has increased costs by ten
percent in the intervening year. The engineer's discount rate is 15 percent per year (in
current year dollars). For simplicity, you may assume that all cash transactions occur at
the end of the year in making discounting calculations in answering the following
questions:
a. How long will be remaining six activities require?
b. Suppose that the owner agrees to make a lump sum payment of the remaining
original contract at the completion of the project. Would the engineer still make a
profit on the job? If so, how much?
c. Given that the engineer would receive a lump sum payment at the end of the
project, what amount should he request in order to earn his desired ten percent
profit on all costs?
d. What is the net future value of the entire project at the end, assuming that the
lump sum payment you calculated in (c) is obtained?
11. Based on your knowledge of coding systems such as MASTERFORMAT and estimating
techniques, outline the procedures that might be implemented to accomplish:
a. automated updating of duration and cost estimates of activities in light of experience
on earlier, similar activities.
b. interactive computer based aids to help a project manager to accomplish the same task.
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12.11 Footnotes
1. Cited in Zoll, Peter F., "Database Structures for Project Management," Proceedings of the
Seventh Conference on Electronic Computation, ASCE, 1979. Back
2. Thomas Gibb reports a median number of 400 cost accounts for a two-million dollar projects
in a sample of 30 contractors in 1975. See T.W. Gibb, Jr., "Building Construction in Southeastern
United States," School of Civil Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1975, reported in
D.W. Halpin, Financial and Cost Concepts for Construction Management, John Wiley and Sons,
1985. Back
3. This illustrative set of accounts was adapted from an ASCE Manual of Practice: Construction
Cost Control, Task Committee on Revision of Construction Cost Control Manual, ASCE, New
York, 1985. Back
4. For a fuller exposition of this point, see W.H. Lucas and T.L. Morrison, "Management
Accounting for Construction Contracts," Management Accounting, 1981, pp. 59-65. Back
5. For a description of these methods and examples as used by a sample of construction
companies, see L.S. Riggs, Cost and Schedule Control in Industrial Construction, Report to The
Construction Industry Institute, Dec. 1986. Back
6. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 19, 1986, pg. A1, c. 4. Back
7. H.T. Johnson and R.S. Kaplan, Relevance Lost, The Rise and Fall of Management Accounting,
Harvard Business School Press, pg. 1, 1987. Back
8. One experimental program directed at this problem is a knowledge based expert system
described in R.E. Levitt and J.C. Kunz, "Using Knowledge of Construction and Project
Management for Automated Schedule Updating," Project Management Journal, Vol. 16, 1985,
pp. 57-76. Back
9. For an example of a prototype interactive project management environment that includes
graphical displays and scheduling algorithms, see R. Kromer, "Interactive Activity Network
Analysis Using a Personal Computer," Unpublished MS Thesis, Department of Civil
Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1984. Back
10. A three dimensional work element definition was proposed by J.M. Neil, "A System for
Integrated Project Management," Proceedings of the Conference on Current Practice in Cost
Estimating and Cost Control, ASCE, Austin, Texas, 138-146, April 1983. Back
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12
(Cost Control,
Monitoring
and
Accounting)
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14
(Organization
and Use of
Project
Information)
As with cost control, the most important decisions regarding the quality of a completed facility
are made during the design and planning stages rather than during construction. It is during these
preliminary stages that component configurations, material specifications and functional
performance are decided. Quality control during construction consists largely of insuring
conformance to these original design and planning decisions.
While conformance to existing design decisions is the primary focus of quality control, there are
exceptions to this rule. First, unforeseen circumstances, incorrect design decisions or changes
desired by an owner in the facility function may require re-evaluation of design decisions during
the course of construction. While these changes may be motivated by the concern for quality,
they represent occasions for re-design with all the attendant objectives and constraints. As a
second case, some designs rely upon informed and appropriate decision making during the
construction process itself. For example, some tunneling methods make decisions about the
amount of shoring required at different locations based upon observation of soil conditions
during the tunneling process. Since such decisions are based on better information concerning
actual site conditions, the facility design may be more cost effective as a result. Any special case
of re-design during construction requires the various considerations discussed in Chapter 3.
With the attention to conformance as the measure of quality during the construction process, the
specification of quality requirements in the design and contract documentation becomes
extremely important. Quality requirements should be clear and verifiable, so that all parties in the
project can understand the requirements for conformance. Much of the discussion in this chapter
relates to the development and the implications of different quality requirements for construction
as well as the issues associated with insuring conformance.
Safety during the construction project is also influenced in large part by decisions made during
the planning and design process. Some designs or construction plans are inherently difficult and
dangerous to implement, whereas other, comparable plans may considerably reduce the
possibility of accidents. For example, clear separation of traffic from construction zones during
roadway rehabilitation can greatly reduce the possibility of accidental collisions. Beyond these
design decisions, safety largely depends upon education, vigilance and cooperation during the
construction process. Workers should be constantly alert to the possibilities of accidents and
avoid taken unnecessary risks.
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Inspectors and quality assurance personnel will be involved in a project to represent a variety of
different organizations. Each of the parties directly concerned with the project may have their
own quality and safety inspectors, including the owner, the engineer/architect, and the various
constructor firms. These inspectors may be contractors from specialized quality assurance
organizations. In addition to on-site inspections, samples of materials will commonly be tested
by specialized laboratories to insure compliance. Inspectors to insure compliance with regulatory
requirements will also be involved. Common examples are inspectors for the local government's
building department, for environmental agencies, and for occupational health and safety
agencies.
The US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) routinely conducts site visits of
work places in conjunction with approved state inspection agencies. OSHA inspectors are
required by law to issue citations for all standard violations observed. Safety standards prescribe
a variety of mechanical safeguards and procedures; for example, ladder safety is covered by over
140 regulations. In cases of extreme non-compliance with standards, OSHA inspectors can stop
work on a project. However, only a small fraction of construction sites are visited by OSHA
inspectors and most construction site accidents are not caused by violations of existing standards.
As a result, safety is largely the responsibility of the managers on site rather than that of public
inspectors.
While the multitude of participants involved in the construction process require the services of
inspectors, it cannot be emphasized too strongly that inspectors are only a formal check on
quality control. Quality control should be a primary objective for all the members of a project
team. Managers should take responsibility for maintaining and improving quality control.
Employee participation in quality control should be sought and rewarded, including the
introduction of new ideas. Most important of all, quality improvement can serve as a catalyst for
improved productivity. By suggesting new work methods, by avoiding rework, and by avoiding
long term problems, good quality control can pay for itself. Owners should promote good quality
control and seek out contractors who maintain such standards.
In addition to the various organizational bodies involved in quality control, issues of quality
control arise in virtually all the functional areas of construction activities. For example, insuring
accurate and useful information is an important part of maintaining quality performance. Other
aspects of quality control include document control (including changes during the construction
process), procurement, field inspection and testing, and final checkout of the facility.
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General specifications of work quality are available in numerous fields and are issued in
publications of organizations such as the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM),
the American National Standards Institute (ANSI), or the Construction Specifications Institute
(CSI). Distinct specifications are formalized for particular types of construction activities, such
as welding standards issued by the American Welding Society, or for particular facility types,
such as the Standard Specifications for Highway Bridges issued by the American Association of
State Highway and Transportation Officials. These general specifications must be modified to
reflect local conditions, policies, available materials, local regulations and other special
circumstances.
Construction specifications normally consist of a series of instructions or prohibitions for
specific operations. For example, the following passage illustrates a typical specification, in this
case for excavation for structures:
Conform to elevations and dimensions shown on plan within a tolerance of plus or minus 0.10
foot, and extending a sufficient distance from footings and foundations to permit placing and
removal of concrete formwork, installation of services, other construction, and for inspection. In
excavating for footings and foundations, take care not to disturb bottom of excavation. Excavate
by hand to final grade just before concrete reinforcement is placed. Trim bottoms to required
lines and grades to leave solid base to receive concrete.
This set of specifications requires judgment in application since some items are not precisely
specified. For example, excavation must extend a "sufficient" distance to permit inspection and
other activities. Obviously, the term "sufficient" in this case may be subject to varying
interpretations. In contrast, a specification that tolerances are within plus or minus a tenth of a
foot is subject to direct measurement. However, specific requirements of the facility or
characteristics of the site may make the standard tolerance of a tenth of a foot inappropriate.
Writing specifications typically requires a trade-off between assuming reasonable behavior on
the part of all the parties concerned in interpreting words such as "sufficient" versus the effort
and possible inaccuracy in pre-specifying all operations.
In recent years, performance specifications have been developed for many construction
operations. Rather than specifying the required construction process, these specifications refer to
the required performance or quality of the finished facility. The exact method by which this
performance is obtained is left to the construction contractor. For example, traditional
specifications for asphalt pavement specified the composition of the asphalt material, the asphalt
temperature during paving, and compacting procedures. In contrast, a performance specification
for asphalt would detail the desired performance of the pavement with respect to impermeability,
strength, etc. How the desired performance level was attained would be up to the paving
contractor. In some cases, the payment for asphalt paving might increase with better quality of
asphalt beyond some minimum level of performance.
Example 13-1: Concrete Pavement Strength
Concrete pavements of superior strength result in cost savings by delaying the time at which
repairs or re-construction is required. In contrast, concrete of lower quality will necessitate more
frequent overlays or other repair procedures. Contract provisions with adjustments to the amount
of a contractor's compensation based on pavement quality have become increasingly common in
recognition of the cost savings associated with higher quality construction. Even if a pavement
does not meet the "ultimate" design standard, it is still worth using the lower quality pavement
and re-surfacing later rather than completely rejecting the pavement. Based on these life cycle
cost considerations, a typical pay schedule might be: [1]
Load Ratio Pay Factor
<0.50
0.50-0.69
0.70-0.89
0.90-1.09
1.10-1.29
1.30-1.49
>1.50
Reject
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.12
In this table, the Load Ratio is the ratio of the actual pavement strength to the desired design
strength and the Pay Factor is a fraction by which the total pavement contract amount is
multiplied to obtain the appropriate compensation to the contractor. For example, if a contractor
achieves concrete strength twenty percent greater than the design specification, then the load
ratio is 1.20 and the appropriate pay factor is 1.05, so the contractor receives a five percent
bonus. Load factors are computed after tests on the concrete actually used in a pavement. Note
that a 90% pay factor exists in this case with even pavement quality only 50% of that originally
desired. This high pay factor even with weak concrete strength might exist since much of the cost
of pavements are incurred in preparing the pavement foundation. Concrete strengths of less then
50% are cause for complete rejection in this case, however.
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In contrast to this traditional approach of quality control is the goal of total quality control. In
this system, no defective items are allowed anywhere in the construction process. While the zero
defects goal can never be permanently obtained, it provides a goal so that an organization is
never satisfied with its quality control program even if defects are reduced by substantial
amounts year after year. This concept and approach to quality control was first developed in
manufacturing firms in Japan and Europe, but has since spread to many construction companies.
The best known formal certification for quality improvement is the International Organization
for Standardization's ISO 9000 standard. ISO 9000 emphasizes good documentation, quality
goals and a series of cycles of planning, implementation and review.
Total quality control is a commitment to quality expressed in all parts of an organization and
typically involves many elements. Design reviews to insure safe and effective construction
procedures are a major element. Other elements include extensive training for personnel, shifting
the responsibility for detecting defects from quality control inspectors to workers, and
continually maintaining equipment. Worker involvement in improved quality control is often
formalized in quality circles in which groups of workers meet regularly to make suggestions for
quality improvement. Material suppliers are also required to insure zero defects in delivered
goods. Initally, all materials from a supplier are inspected and batches of goods with any
defective items are returned. Suppliers with good records can be certified and not subject to
complete inspection subsequently.
The traditional microeconomic view of quality control is that there is an "optimum" proportion
of defective items. Trying to achieve greater quality than this optimum would substantially
increase costs of inspection and reduce worker productivity. However, many companies have
found that commitment to total quality control has substantial economic benefits that had been
unappreciated in traditional approaches. Expenses associated with inventory, rework, scrap and
warranties were reduced. Worker enthusiasm and commitment improved. Customers often
appreciated higher quality work and would pay a premium for good quality. As a result,
improved quality control became a competitive advantage.
Of course, total quality control is difficult to apply, particular in construction. The unique nature
of each facility, the variability in the workforce, the multitude of subcontractors and the cost of
making necessary investments in education and procedures make programs of total quality
control in construction difficult. Nevertheless, a commitment to improved quality even without
endorsing the goal of zero defects can pay real dividends to organizations.
Example 13-2: Experience with Quality Circles
Quality circles represent a group of five to fifteen workers who meet on a frequent basis to
identify, discuss and solve productivity and quality problems. A circle leader acts as liason
between the workers in the group and upper levels of management. Appearing below are some
examples of reported quality circle accomplishments in construction: [2]
1. On a highway project under construction by Taisei Corporation, it was found that
the loss rate of ready-mixed concrete was too high. A quality circle composed of
cement masons found out that the most important reason for this was due to an
picking the top piece on a delivery truck may be adequate to insure a random sample if pieces are
randomly mixed in a stack or in use. However, some convenient sampling plans can be
inappropriate. For example, checking only easily accessible joints in a building component is
inappropriate since joints that are hard to reach may be more likely to have erection or
fabrication problems.
Another assumption implicit in statistical quality control procedures is that the quality of
materials or work is expected to vary from one piece to another. This is certainly true in the field
of construction. While a designer may assume that all concrete is exactly the same in a building,
the variations in material properties, manufacturing, handling, pouring, and temperature during
setting insure that concrete is actually heterogeneous in quality. Reducing such variations to a
minimum is one aspect of quality construction. Insuring that the materials actually placed
achieve some minimum quality level with respect to average properties or fraction of defectives
is the task of quality control.
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Consider a lot of finite number N, in which m items are defective (bad) and the remaining (N-m)
items are non-defective (good). If a random sample of n items is taken from this lot, then we can
determine the probability of having different numbers of defective items in the sample. With a
pre-defined acceptable number of defective items, we can then develop the probability of
accepting a lot as a function of the sample size, the allowable number of defective items, and the
actual fraction of defective items. This derivation appears below.
The number of different samples of size n that can be selected from a finite population N is
termed a mathematical combination and is computed as:
(13.1)
where a factorial, n! is n*(n-1)*(n-2)...(1) and zero factorial (0!) is one by convention. The
number of possible samples with exactly x defectives is the combination associated with
obtaining x defectives from m possible defective items and n-x good items from N-m good
items:
(13.2)
Given these possible numbers of samples, the probability of having exactly x defective items in
the sample is given by the ratio as the hypergeometric series:
(13.3)
With this function, we can calculate the probability of obtaining different numbers of defectives
in a sample of a given size.
Suppose that the actual fraction of defectives in the lot is p and the actual fraction of
nondefectives is q, then p plus q is one, resulting in m = Np, and N - m = Nq. Then, a function
g(p) representing the probability of having r or less defective items in a sample of size n is
obtained by substituting m and N into Eq. (13.3) and summing over the acceptable defective
number of items:
(13.4)
If the number of items in the lot, N, is large in comparison with the sample size n, then the
function g(p) can be approximated by the binomial distribution:
(13.5)
or
(13.6)
The function g(p) indicates the probability of accepting a lot, given the sample size n and the
number of allowable defective items in the sample r. The function g(p) can be represented
graphical for each combination of sample size n and number of allowable defective items r, as
shown in Figure 13-1. Each curve is referred to as the operating characteristic curve (OC curve)
in this graph. For the special case of a single sample (n=1), the function g(p) can be simplified:
(13.7)
so that the probability of accepting a lot is equal to the fraction of acceptable items in the lot. For
example, there is a probability of 0.5 that the lot may be accepted from a single sample test even
if fifty percent of the lot is defective.
Figure 13-1 Example Operating Characteristic Curves Indicating Probability of Lot Acceptance
For any combination of n and r, we can read off the value of g(p) for a given p from the
corresponding OC curve. For example, n = 15 is specified in Figure 13-1. Then, for various
values of r, we find:
r=0
r=0
r=1
r=1
p=24% g(p)
p=4% g(p)
p=24% g(p)
p=4% g(p)
2%
54%
10%
88%
The producer's and consumer's risk can be related to various points on an operating characteristic
curve. Producer's risk is the chance that otherwise acceptable lots fail the sampling plan (ie. have
more than the allowable number of defective items in the sample) solely due to random
fluctuations in the selection of the sample. In contrast, consumer's risk is the chance that an
unacceptable lot is acceptable (ie. has less than the allowable number of defective items in the
sample) due to a better than average quality in the sample. For example, suppose that a sample
size of 15 is chosen with a trigger level for rejection of one item. With a four percent acceptable
level and a greater than four percent defective fraction, the consumer's risk is at most eightyeight percent. In contrast, with a four percent acceptable level and a four percent defective
fraction, the producer's risk is at most 1 - 0.88 = 0.12 or twelve percent.
In specifying the sampling plan implicit in the operating characteristic curve, the supplier and
consumer of materials or work must agree on the levels of risk acceptable to themselves. If the
lot is of acceptable quality, the supplier would like to minimize the chance or risk that a lot is
rejected solely on the basis of a lower than average quality sample. Similarly, the consumer
would like to minimize the risk of accepting under the sampling plan a deficient lot. In addition,
both parties presumably would like to minimize the costs and delays associated with testing.
Devising an acceptable sampling plan requires trade off the objectives of risk minimization
among the parties involved and the cost of testing.
Example 13-3: Acceptance probability calculation
Suppose that the sample size is five (n=5) from a lot of one hundred items (N=100). The lot of
materials is to be rejected if any of the five samples is defective (r = 0). In this case, the
probability of acceptance as a function of the actual number of defective items can be computed
by noting that for r = 0, only one term (x = 0) need be considered in Eq. (13.4). Thus, for N =
100 and n = 5:
For a two percent defective fraction (p = 0.02), the resulting acceptance value is:
Using the binomial approximation in Eq. (13.5), the comparable calculation would be:
which is a difference of 0.0019, or 0.21 percent from the actual value of 0.9020 found above.
If the acceptable defective proportion was two percent (so p1 = p2 = 0.02), then the chance of an
incorrect rejection (or producer's risk) is 1 - g(0.02) = 1 - 0.9 = 0.1 or ten percent. Note that a
prudent producer should insure better than minimum quality products to reduce the probability or
chance of rejection under this sampling plan. If the actual proportion of defectives was one
percent, then the producer's risk would be only five percent with this sampling plan.
Example 13-4: Designing a Sampling Plan
Suppose that an owner (or product "consumer" in the terminology of quality control) wishes to
have zero defective items in a facility with 5,000 items of a particular kind. What would be the
different amounts of consumer's risk for different sampling plans?
With an acceptable quality level of no defective items (so p1 = 0), the allowable defective items
in the sample is zero (so r = 0) in the sampling plan. Using the binomial approximation, the
probability of accepting the 5,000 items as a function of the fraction of actual defective items and
the sample size is:
To insure a ninety percent chance of rejecting a lot with an actual percentage defective of one
percent (p = 0.01), the required sample size would be calculated as:
Then,
As can be seen, large sample sizes are required to insure relatively large probabilities of zero
defective items.
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procedure uses measured values of an attribute in a sample to determine the overall acceptability
of a batch or lot. Sampling by variables has the advantage of using more information from tests
since it is based on actual measured values rather than a simple classification. As a result,
acceptance sampling by variables can be more efficient than sampling by attributes in the sense
that fewer samples are required to obtain a desired level of quality control.
In applying sampling by variables, an acceptable lot quality can be defined with respect to an
upper limit U, a lower limit L, or both. With these boundary conditions, an acceptable quality
level can be defined as a maximum allowable fraction of defective items, M. In Figure 13-2, the
probability distribution of item attribute x is illustrated. With an upper limit U, the fraction of
defective items is equal to the area under the distribution function to the right of U (so that x
U). This fraction of defective items would be compared to the allowable fraction M to determine
the acceptability of a lot. With both a lower and an upper limit on acceptable quality, the fraction
defective would be the fraction of items greater than the upper limit or less than the lower limit.
Alternatively, the limits could be imposed upon the acceptable average level of the variable
In sampling by variables, the fraction of defective items is estimated by using measured values
from a sample of items. As with sampling by attributes, the procedure assumes a random sample
of a give size is obtained from a lot or batch. In the application of sampling by variables plans,
the measured characteristic is virtually always assumed to be normally distributed as illustrated
in Figure 13-2. The normal distribution is likely to be a reasonably good assumption for many
measured characteristics such as material density or degree of soil compaction. The Central
Limit Theorem provides a general support for the assumption: if the source of variations is a
large number of small and independent random effects, then the resulting distribution of values
will approximate the normal distribution. If the distribution of measured values is not likely to be
approximately normal, then sampling by attributes should be adopted. Deviations from normal
distributions may appear as skewed or non-symmetric distributions, or as distributions with fixed
upper and lower limits.
The fraction of defective items in a sample or the chance that the population average has
different values is estimated from two statistics obtained from the sample: the sample mean and
standard deviation. Mathematically, let n be the number of items in the sample and xi, i =
1,2,3,...,n, be the measured values of the variable characteristic x. Then an estimate of the overall
population mean is the sample mean :
(13.8)
An estimate of the population standard deviation is s, the square root of the sample variance
statistic:
(13.9)
Based on these two estimated parameters and the desired limits, the various fractions of interest
for the population can be calculated.
The probability that the average value of a population is greater than a particular lower limit is
calculated from the test statistic:
(13.10)
which is t-distributed with n-1 degrees of freedom. If the population standard deviation is known
in advance, then this known value is substituted for the estimate s and the resulting test statistic
would be normally distributed. The t distribution is similar in appearance to a standard normal
distribution, although the spread or variability in the function decreases as the degrees of
freedom parameter increases. As the number of degrees of freedom becomes very large, the tdistribution coincides with the normal distribution.
With an upper limit, the calculations are similar, and the probability that the average value of a
population is less than a particular upper limit can be calculated from the test statistic:
(13.11)
With both upper and lower limits, the sum of the probabilities of being above the upper limit or
below the lower limit can be calculated.
The calculations to estimate the fraction of items above an upper limit or below a lower limit are
very similar to those for the population average. The only difference is that the square root of the
number of samples does not appear in the test statistic formulas:
(13.12)
and
(13.13)
where tAL is the test statistic for all items with a lower limit and tAU is the test statistic for all
items with a upper limit. For example, the test statistic for items above an upper limit of 5.5 with
= 4.0, s = 3.0, and n = 5 is tAU = (8.5 - 4.0)/3.0 = 1.5 with n - 1 = 4 degrees of freedom.
Instead of using sampling plans that specify an allowable fraction of defective items, it saves
computations to simply write specifications in terms of the allowable test statistic values
themselves. This procedure is equivalent to requiring that the sample average be at least a prespecified number of standard deviations away from an upper or lower limit. For example, with
= 4.0, U = 8.5, s = 3.0 and n = 41, the sample mean is only about (8.5 - 4.0)/3.0 = 1.5 standard
deviations away from the upper limit.
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13.8 Safety
Construction is a relatively hazardous undertaking. As Table 13-1 illustrates, there are
significantly more injuries and lost workdays due to injuries or illnesses in construction than in
virtually any other industry. These work related injuries and illnesses are exceedingly costly. The
Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project estimated that accidents cost $8.9 billion or
nearly seven percent of the $137 billion (in 1979 dollars) spent annually for industrial, utility and
commercial construction in the United States. [3] Included in this total are direct costs (medical
costs, premiums for workers' compensation benefits, liability and property losses) as well as
indirect costs (reduced worker productivity, delays in projects, administrative time, and damage
to equipment and the facility). In contrast to most industrial accidents, innocent bystanders may
also be injuried by construction accidents. Several crane collapses from high rise buildings under
construction have resulted in fatalities to passerbys. Prudent project managers and owners would
like to reduce accidents, injuries and illnesses as much as possible.
TABLE 13-1 Nonfatal Occupational Injury and Illness Incidence Rates
Industry
8.7
5.4
9.9
10.6
6
3.5
5.9
6
8.7
2.4
6.0
5
1.5
1.2
Note: Data represent total number of cases per 100 full-time employees
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational injuries and Illnesses in the United States
by Industry, annual
As with all the other costs of construction, it is a mistake for owners to ignore a significant
category of costs such as injury and illnesses. While contractors may pay insurance premiums
directly, these costs are reflected in bid prices or contract amounts. Delays caused by injuries and
illnesses can present significant opportunity costs to owners. In the long run, the owners of
constructed facilities must pay all the costs of construction. For the case of injuries and illnesses,
this general principle might be slightly qualified since significant costs are borne by workers
themselves or society at large. However, court judgements and insurance payments compensate
for individual losses and are ultimately borne by the owners.
The causes of injuries in construction are numerous. Table 13-2 lists the reported causes of
accidents in the US construction industry in 1997 and 2004. A similar catalogue of causes would
exist for other countries. The largest single category for both injuries and fatalities are individual
falls. Handling goods and transportation are also a significant cause of injuries. From a
management perspective, however, these reported causes do not really provide a useful
prescription for safety policies. An individual fall may be caused by a series of coincidences: a
railing might not be secure, a worker might be inattentive, the footing may be slippery, etc.
Removing any one of these compound causes might serve to prevent any particular accident.
However, it is clear that conditions such as unsecured railings will normally increase the risk of
accidents. Table 13-3 provides a more detailed list of causes of fatalities for construction sites
alone, but again each fatality may have multiple causes.
TABLE 13-2 Fatal Occupational Injuries in
Construction, 1997 and 2004
Year
1997 2004
Total fatalities
1,107
Falls
376
Transportation incidents
288
Contact with objects & equipment
199
Exposure to harmful substances
188
and environments
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1,234
445
287
267
170
Year
Total accidents
Falls from a height
Struck by a moving vehicle
Struck by moving/falling object
Trapped by something overturning/collapsing
Drowning/asphyxiation96/9706/07
287
88
43
57
16
9
241
45
30
40
19
16
While eliminating accidents and work related illnesses is a worthwhile goal, it will never be
attained. Construction has a number of characteristics making it inherently hazardous. Large
forces are involved in many operations. The jobsite is continually changing as construction
proceeds. Workers do not have fixed worksites and must move around a structure under
construction. The tenure of a worker on a site is short, so the worker's familiarity and the
employer-employee relationship are less settled than in manufacturing settings. Despite these
peculiarities and as a result of exactly these special problems, improving worksite safety is a very
important project management concern.
Example 13-6: Trench collapse [5]
To replace 1,200 feet of a sewer line, a trench of between 12.5 and 18 feet deep was required
down the center of a four lane street. The contractor chose to begin excavation of the trench from
the shallower end, requiring a 12.5 deep trench. Initially, the contractor used a nine foot high,
four foot wide steel trench box for soil support. A trench box is a rigid steel frame consisting of
two walls supported by welded struts with open sides and ends. This method had the advantage
that traffic could be maintained in at least two lanes during the reconstruction work.
In the shallow parts of the trench, the trench box seemed to adequately support the excavation.
However, as the trench got deeper, more soil was unsupported below the trench box. Intermittent
soil collapses in the trench began to occur. Eventually, an old parallel six inch water main
collapsed, thereby saturating the soil and leading to massive soil collapse at the bottom of the
trench. Replacement of the water main was added to the initial contract. At this point, the
contractor began sloping the sides of the trench, thereby requiring the closure of the entire street.
The initial use of the trench box was convenient, but it was clearly inadequate and unsafe.
Workers in the trench were in continuing danger of accidents stemming from soil collapse.
Disruption to surrounding facilities such as the parallel water main was highly likely. Adoption
of a tongue and groove vertical sheeting system over the full height of the trench or, alternatively,
the sloping excavation eventually adopted are clearly preferable.
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13.9 References
1. Ang, A.H.S. and W.H. Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design:
Volume I - Basic Principles, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1975.
2. Au, T., R.M. Shane, and L.A. Hoel, Fundamentals of Systems Engineering: Probabilistic
Models, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading MA, 1972
3. Bowker, A.H. and Liebermann, G. J., Engineering Statistics, Prentice-Hall, 1972.
4. Fox, A.J. and Cornell, H.A., (eds), Quality in the Constructed Project, American Society
of Civil Engineers, New York, 1984.
5. International Organization for Standardization, "Sampling Procedures and Charts for
Inspection by Variables for Percent Defective, ISO 3951-1981 (E)", Statistical Methods,
ISO Standard Handbook 3, International Organization for Standardization, Paris, France,
1981.
6. Skibniewski, M. and Hendrickson, C., Methods to Improve the Safety Performance of the
U.S. Construction Industry, Technical Report, Department of Civil Engineering, Carnegie
Mellon University, 1983.
7. United States Department of Defense, Sampling Procedures and Tables for Inspection by
Variables, (Military Standard 414), Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office,
1957.
8. United States Department of Defense, Sampling Procedures and Tables for Inspection by
Attributes, (Military Standard 105D), Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1963.
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13.10 Problems
1. Consider the following specification. Would you consider it to be a process or
performance specification? Why?
"Water used in mixing or curing shall be reasonably clean and free of oil, salt, acid,
alkali, sugar, vegetable, or other substance injurious to the finished product...Water
known to be potable quality may be used without test. Where the source of water is
relatively shallow, the intake shall be so enclosed as to exclude silt, mud, grass, or other
foreign materials." [6]
2. Suppose that a sampling plan calls for a sample of size n = 50. To be acceptable, only
three or fewer samples can be defective. Estimate the probability of accepting the lot if
the average defective percentage is (a) 15%, (b) 5% or (c) 2%. Do not use an
approximation in this calculation.
3. Repeat Problem 2 using the binomial approximation.
4. Suppose that a project manager tested the strength of one tile out of a batch of 3,000 to be
used on a building. This one sample measurement was compared with the design
specification and, in this case, the sampled tile's strength exceeded that of the
specification. On this basis, the project manager accepted the tile shipment. If the
sampled tile was defective (with a strength less than the specification), the project
manager would have rejected the lot.
a. What is the probability that ninety percent of the tiles are substandard, even though the
project manager's sample gave a satisfactory result?
b. Sketch out the operating characteristic curve for this sampling plan as a function of the
actual fraction of defective tiles.
5. Repeat Problem 4 for sample sizes of (a) 5, (b) 10 and (c) 20.
6. Suppose that a sampling-by-attributes plan is specified in which ten samples are taken at
random from a large lot (N=100) and at most one sample item is allowed to be defective
for the lot to be acceptable.
a. If the actual percentage defective is five percent, what is the probability of lot
acceptance? (Note: you may use relevant approximations in this calculation.)
b. What is the consumer's risk if an acceptable quality level is fifteen percent defective
and the actual fraction defective is five percent?
c. What is the producer's risk with this sampling plan and an eight percent defective
percentage?
7. The yield stress of a random sample of 25 pieces of steel was measured, yielding a mean
of 52,800 psi. and an estimated standard deviation of s = 4,600 psi.
a. What is the probability that the population mean is less than 50,000 psi?
b. What is the estimated fraction of pieces with yield strength less than 50,000 psi?
c. Is this sampling procedure sampling-by-attributes or sampling-by-variable?
8. Suppose that a contract specifies a sampling-by-attributes plan in which ten samples are
taken at random from a large lot (N=100) and at most one sample is allowed to be
defective for the lot to be acceptable.
a. If the actual percentage defective is five percent, what is the probability of lot
acceptance? (Note: you may use relevant approximations in this calculation).
b. What is the consumer's risk if an acceptable quality level is fifteen percent defective
and the actual fraction defective is 0.05?
c. What is the producer's risk with this sampling plan and a 8% defective percentage?
9. In a random sample of 40 blocks chosen from a production line, the mean length was
10.63 inches and the estimated standard deviation was 0.4 inch. Between what lengths
can it be said that 98% of block lengths will lie?
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13.11 Footnotes
1. This illustrative pay factor schedule is adapted from R.M. Weed, "Development of
Multicharacteristic Acceptance Procedures for Rigid Pavement," Transportation Research
Record 885, 1982, pp. 25-36. Back
2. B.A. Gilly, A. Touran, and T. Asai, "Quality Control Circles in Construction," ASCE Journal
of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 113, No. 3, 1987, pg 432. Back
3. See Improving Construction Safety Performance, Report A-3, The Business Roundtable, New
York, NY, January 1982. Back
4. Hinze, Jimmie W., Construction Safety,, Prentice-Hall, 1997. Back
5. This example was adapted from E. Elinski, External Impacts of Reconstruction and
Rehabilitation Projects with Implications for Project Management, Unpublished MS Thesis,
Department of Civil Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 1985. Back
6. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Guide Specifications for
Highway Construction, Washington, D.C., Section 714.01, pg. 244. Back
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References
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Footnotes
Some of these sets of information evolve as the project proceeds. The financial accounts of
payments over the entire course of the project is an example of overall growth. The passage of
time results in steady additions in these accounts, whereas the addition of a new actor such as a
contractor leads to a sudden jump in the number of accounts. Some information sets are
important at one stage of the process but may then be ignored. Common examples include
planning or structural analysis databases which are not ordinarily used during construction or
operation. However, it may be necessary at later stages in the project to re-do analyses to
consider desired changes. In this case, archival information storage and retrieval become
important. Even after the completion of construction, an historical record may be important for
use during operation, to assess responsibilities in case of facility failures or for planning similar
projects elsewhere.
The control and flow of information is also important for collaborative work environments,
where many professionals are working on different aspects of a project and sharing information.
Collaborative work environments provide facilities for sharing datafiles, tracing decisions, and
communication via electronic mail or video conferencing. The datastores in these collaborative
work environments may become very large.
Based on several construction projects, Maged Abdelsayed of Tardif, Murray & Assoc (Quebec,
Canada) estimated the following average figures for a typical project of US$10 million:
Number of 20inch diameter, 20 year old, 50 feet high, trees used to generate this volume
of paper: 6
Equivalent number of Mega Bytes of electronic data to hold this volume of paper
(scanned): 3,000 MB
While there may be substantial costs due to inaccurate or missing information, there are also
significant costs associated with the generation, storage, transfer, retrieval and other
manipulation of information. In addition to the costs of clerical work and providing aids such as
computers, the organization and review of information command an inordinate amount of the
attention of project managers, which may be the scarcest resource on any construction project. It
is useful, therefore, to understand the scope and alternatives for organizing project information.
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Numerous sources of error are expected for project information. While numerical values are
often reported to the nearest cent or values of equivalent precision, it is rare that the actual values
are so accurately known. Living with some uncertainty is an inescapable situation, and a prudent
manager should have an understanding of the uncertainty in different types of information and
the possibility of drawing misleading conclusions.
We have already discussed the uncertainty inherent in making forecasts of project costs and
durations sometime in the future. Forecast uncertainty also exists in the short term. For example,
consider estimates of work completed. Every project manager is familiar with situations in which
the final few bits of work for a task take an inordinate amount of time. Unforeseen problems,
inadequate quality on already completed work, lack of attention, accidents, or postponing the
most difficult work problems to the end can all contribute to making the final portion of an
activity actually require far more time and effort than expected. The net result is that estimates of
the actual proportion of work completed are often inaccurate.
Some inaccuracy in reports and estimates can arise from conscious choices made by workers,
foremen or managers. If the value of insuring accuracy is thought to be low or nonexistent, then
a rational worker will not expend effort or time to gather or to report information accurately.
Many project scheduling systems flounder on exactly this type of non-reporting or mis-reporting.
The original schedule can quickly become extremely misleading without accurate updating!
Only if all parties concerned have specific mandates or incentives to report accurately will the
data be reliable.
Another source of inaccuracy comes from transcription errors of various sorts. Typographical
errors, incorrect measurements from reading equipment, or other recording and calculation errors
may creep into the sets of information which are used in project management. Despite intensive
efforts to check and eliminate such errors, their complete eradication is virtually impossible.
One method of indicating the relative accuracy of numerical data is to report ranges or expected
deviations of an estimate or measurement. For example, a measurement might be reported as 198
ft. + 2 ft. There are two common interpretations of these deviations. First, a range (such as + 2)
might be chosen so that the actual value is certain to be within the indicated range. In the case
above, the actual length would be somewhere between 196 and 200 feet with this convention.
Alternatively, this deviation might indicate the typical range of the estimate or measurement. In
this case, the example above might imply that there is, say, a two-thirds chance that the actual
length is between 196 and 200.
When the absolute range of a quantity is very large or unknown, the use of a statistical standard
deviation as a measure of uncertainty may be useful. If a quantity is measured n times resulting is
a set of values xi (i = 1,2,...,n), then the average or mean value then the average or mean value is
given by:
(14.1)
can be estimated as the square root s of the sample variance s2, i.e.
(14.2)
Thus, simply examining cost account information may not lead to a correct diagnosis of a
problem or to the correct managerial responses.
Example 14-2: Interest Charges
Financial or interest charges are usually accumulated in a separate account for projects, while the
accounts associated with particular activities represent actual expenditures. For example,
planning activities might cost $10,000 for a small project during the first year of a two year
project. Since dollar expenditures have a time value, this $10,000 cost in year 1 is not equivalent
in value to a $10,000 cost in year 2. In particular, financing the early $10,000 involves payment
of interest or, similarly, the loss of investment opportunities. If the borrowing rate was 10%, then
financing the first year $10,000 expenditure would require $10,000 x 0.10 = $1,000 and the
value of the expenditure by the end of the second year of the project would be $11,000. Thus,
some portion of the overall interest charges represents a cost associated with planning activities.
Recognizing the true value of expenditures made at different periods of time is an important
element in devising rational planning and management strategies.
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One common mechanism to organize record keeping is to fill out cards recording the transfer of
items to or from a job site. Table 14-1 illustrates one possible transfer record. In this case, seven
items were requested for the Carnegie-Mellon job site (project number 83-1557). These seven
items would be loaded on a delivery truck, along with a copy of the transfer record. Shown in
Table 14-1 is a code number identifying each item (0609.02, 0609.03, etc.), the quantity of each
item requested, an item description and a unit price. For equipment items, an equipment number
identifying the individual piece of equipment used is also recorded, such as grinder No. 4517 in
Table 14-1; a unit price is not specified for equipment but a daily rental charge might be
imposed.
TABLE 14-1 Illustration of a Construction Warehouse Transfer Record
TRANSFER SHEET NUMBER 100311
Deliver To: Carnegie-Mellon
Received From: Pittsburgh Warehouse
ITEM NO. EQ. NO. QTY
0609.02
0609.03
0188.21
0996.01
0607.03
0172.00
0181.53
4517
Preparer: Vicki
DESCRIPTION
Date: x/xx/xx
Transfer sheets are numbered (such as No. 100311 in Table 14-1), dated and the preparer
identified to facilitate control of the record keeping process. During the course of a month,
numerous transfer records of this type are accumulated. At the end of a month, each of the
transfer records is examined to compile the various items or equipment used at a project and the
appropriate charges. Constructing these bills would be a tedious manual task. Equipment
movements would have to be tracked individually, days at each site counted, and the daily charge
accumulated for each project. For example, Table 14-1 records the transfer of grinder No. 4517
to a job site. This project would be charged a daily rental rate until the grinder was returned.
Hundreds or thousands of individual item transfers would have to be examined, and the process
of preparing bills could easily require a week or two of effort.
In addition to generating billing information, a variety of reports would be useful in the process
of managing a company's equipment and individual projects. Records of the history of use of
particular pieces of equipment are useful for planning maintenance and deciding on the sale or
scrapping of equipment. Reports on the cumulative amount of materials and equipment delivered
to a job site would be of obvious benefit to project managers. Composite reports on the amount,
location, and use of pieces of equipment of particular types are also useful in making decisions
about the purchase of new equipment, inventory control, or for project planning. Unfortunately,
producing each of these reports requires manually sifting through a large number of transfer
cards. Alternatively, record keeping for these specific projects could have to proceed by keeping
multiple records of the same information. For example, equipment transfers might be recorded
on (1) a file for a particular piece of equipment and (2) a file for a particular project, in addition
to the basic transfer form illustrated in Table 14-1. Even with these redundant records, producing
the various desired reports would be time consuming.
Organizing this inventory information in a computer program is a practical and desirable
innovation. In addition to speeding up billing (and thereby reducing borrowing costs),
application programs can readily provide various reports or views of the basic inventory
information described above. Information can be entered directly to the computer program as
needed. For example, the transfer record shown in Table 14-1 is based upon an input screen to a
computer program which, in turn, had been designed to duplicate the manual form used prior to
computerization. Use of the computer also allows some interactive aids in preparing the transfer
form. This type of aid follows a simple rule: "Don't make the user provide information that the
system already knows." [3] In using the form shown in Table 14-1, a clerk need only enter the
code and quantity for an item; the verbal description and unit cost of the item then appear
automatically. A copy of the transfer form can be printed locally, while the data is stored in the
computer for subsequent processing. As a result, preparing transfer forms and record keeping are
rapidly and effectively performed.
More dramatically, the computerized information allows warehouse personnel both to ask
questions about equipment management and to readily generate the requisite data for answering
such questions. The records of transfers can be readily processed by computer programs to
develop bills and other reports. For example, proposals to purchase new pieces of equipment can
be rapidly and critically reviewed after summarizing the actual usage of existing equipment.
Ultimately, good organization of information will typically lead to the desire to store new types
of data and to provide new views of this information as standard managerial tools.
Of course, implementing an information system such as the warehouse inventory database
requires considerable care to insure that the resulting program is capable of accomplishing the
desired task. In the warehouse inventory system, a variety of details are required to make the
computerized system an acceptable alternative to a long standing manual record keeping
procedure. Coping with these details makes a big difference in the system's usefulness. For
example, changes to the status of equipment are generally made by recording transfers as
illustrated in Table 14-1. However, a few status changes are not accomplished by physical
movement. One example is a charge for air conditioning in field trailers: even though the air
conditioners may be left in the field, the construction project should not be charged for the air
conditioner after it has been turned off during the cold weather months. A special status change
report may be required for such details. Other details of record keeping require similar special
controls.
Even with a capable program, simplicity of design for users is a critical factor affecting the
successful implementation of a system. In the warehouse inventory system described above,
input forms and initial reports were designed to duplicate the existing manual, paper-based
records. As a result, warehouse clerks could readily understand what information was required
and its ultimate use. A good rule to follow is the Principle of Least Astonishment: make
communications with users as consistent and predictable as possible in designing programs.
Finally, flexibility of systems for changes is an important design and implementation concern.
New reports or views of the data is a common requirement as the system is used. For example,
the introduction of a new accounting system would require changes in the communications
procedure from the warehouse inventory system to record changes and other cost items.
In sum, computerizing the warehouse inventory system could save considerable labor, speed up
billing, and facilitate better management control. Against these advantages must be placed the
cost of introducing computer hardware and software in the warehouse.
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A manager need not be concerned with the details of data storage since this internal
representation and manipulation is regulated by the Database Manager Program (DBM). The
DBM is the software program that directs the storage, maintenance, manipulation and retrieval of
data. Users retrieve or store data by issuing specific requests to the DBM. The objective of
introducing a DBM is to free the user from the detail of exactly how data are stored and
manipulated. At the same time, many different users with a wide variety of needs can use the
same database by calling on the DBM. Usually the DBM will be available to a user by means of
a special query language. For example, a manager might ask a DBM to report on all project tasks
which are scheduled to be underway on a particular date. The desirable properties of a DBM
include the ability to provide the user with ready access to the stored data and to maintain the
integrity and security of the data. Numerous commercial DBM exist which provide these
capabilities and can be readily adopted to project management applications.
While the actual storage of the information in a database will depend upon the particular
machine and storage media employed, a Conceptual Data Model exists which provides the user
with an idea or abstract representation of the data organization. (More formally, the overall
configuration of the information in the database is called the conceptual schema.) For example, a
piece of data might be viewed as a particular value within a record of a datafile. In this
conceptual model, a datafile for an application system consists of a series of records with predefined variables within each record. A record is simply a sequence of variable values, which
may be text characters or numerals. This datafile model is one of the earliest and most important
data organization structures. But other views of data organization exist and can be exceedingly
useful. The next section describes one such general model, called the relational model.
Continuing with the elements in Figure 14-1, the data dictionary contains the definitions of the
information in the database. In some systems, data dictionaries are limited to descriptions of the
items in the database. More general systems employ the data dictionary as the information source
for anything dealing with the database systems. It documents the design of the database: what
data are stored, how the data is related, what are the allowable values for data items, etc. The
data dictionary may also contain user authorizations specifying who may have access to
particular pieces of information. Another important element of the data dictionary is a
specification of allowable ranges for pieces of data; by prohibiting the input of erroneous data,
the accuracy of the database improves.
External models are the means by which the users view the database. Of all the information in
the database, one particular user's view may be just a subset of the total. A particular view may
also require specific translation or manipulation of the information in the database. For example,
the external model for a paycheck writing program might consist solely of a list of employee
names and salary totals, even if the underlying database would include employee hours and
hourly pay rates. As far as that program is concerned, no other data exists in the database. The
DBM provides a means of translating particular external models or views into the overall data
model. Different users can view the data in quite distinct fashions, yet the data itself can be
centrally stored and need not be copied separately for each user. External models provide the
format by which any specific information needed is retrieved. Database "users" can be human
operators or other application programs such as the paycheck writing program mentioned above.
Finally, the Database Administrator is an individual or group charged with the maintenance and
design of the database, including approving access to the stored information. The assignment of
the database administrator should not be taken lightly. Especially in large organizations with
many users, the database administrator is vital to the success of the database system. For small
projects, the database administrator might be an assistant project manager or even the project
manager.
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Attribute Description
Attribute Type
Key
Pre-defined Code
Text
Text
(restricted to allowable units)
Pre-defined Code
Numerical
Text
Numerical
Date Text
Numerical
Date Text
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Using Table 14-2, a typical unit cost entry for an activity in construction might be:
ITEM_CODE: 04.2-66-025
DESCRIPTION: common brick masonry, 12" thick wall, 19.0 bricks per S.F.
WORK_UNIT: 1000 bricks
CREW_CODE: 04.2-3
OUTPUT: 1.9
TIME_UNIT: Shift
MATL_UNIT_COST: 124
DATEMCOS: June-09-79
INSTCOST: 257
DATEICOS: August-23-79
This entry summarizes the unit costs associated with construction of 12" thick brick masonry
walls, as indicated by the item DESCRIPTION. The ITEM_CODE is a numerical code
identifying a particular activity. This code might identify general categories as well; in this case,
04.2 refers to general masonry work. ITEM_CODE might be based on the MASTERFORMAT
or other coding scheme. The CREW_CODE entry identifies the standard crew which would be
involved in the activity. The actual composition of the standard crew would be found in a CREW
RELATION under the entry 04.2-3, which is the third standard crew involved in masonry work
(04.2). This ability to point to other relations reduces the redundancy or duplication of
information in the database. In this case, standard crew number 04.2-3 might be used for
numerous masonry construction tasks, but the definition of this crew need only appear once.
WORK_UNIT, OUTPUT and TIME_UNIT summarize the expected output for this task with a
standard crew and define the standard unit of measurement for the item. In this case, costs are
given per thousand bricks per shift. Finally, material (MATL_UNIT_COST) and installation
(INSTCOSTS) costs are recorded along with the date (DATEMCOS and DATEICOS) at which
the prices were available and entered in the database. The date of entry is useful to insure that
any inflation in costs can be considered during use of the data.
The data recorded in each row could be obtained by survey during bid preparations, from past
project experience or from commercial services. For example, the data recorded in the Table 142 relation could be obtained as nationwide averages from commercial sources.
An advantage of the relational database model is that the number of attributes and rows in each
relation can be expanded as desired. For example, a manager might wish to divide material costs
(MATL_UNIT_COST) into attributes for specific materials such as cement, aggregate and other
ingredients of concrete in the unit cost relation defined in Table 14-2. As additional items are
defined or needed, their associated data can be entered in the database as another row (or tuple)
in the unit cost relation. Also, new relations can be defined as the need arises. Hence, the
relational model of database organization can be quite flexible in application. In practice, this is a
crucial advantage. Application systems can be expected to change radically over time, and a
flexible system is highly desirable.
With a relational database, it is straightforward to issue queries for particular data items or to
combine data from different relations. For example, a manager might wish to produce a report of
the crew composition needed on a site to accomplish a given list of tasks. Assembling this report
would require accessing the unit price information to find the standard crew and then combining
information about the construction activity or item (eg. quantity desired) with crew information.
However, to effectively accomplish this type of manipulation requires the definition of a "key" in
each relation.
In Table 14-2, the ITEMCODE provides a unique identifier or key for each row. No other row
should have the same ITEMCODE in any one relation. Having a unique key reduces the
redundancy of data, since only one row is included in the database for each activity. It also
avoids error. For example, suppose one queried the database to find the material cost entered on a
particular date. This response might be misleading since more than one material cost could have
been entered on the same date. Similarly, if there are multiple rows with the same ITEMCODE
value, then a query might give erroneous responses if one of the rows was out of date. Finally,
each row has only a single entry for each attribute. [6]
The ability to combine or separate relations into new arrangements permits the definition of
alternative views or external models of the information. Since there are usually a number of
different users of databases, this can be very useful. For example, the payroll division of an
organization would normally desire a quite different organization of information about
employees than would a project manager. By explicitly defining the type and organization of
information a particular user group or application requires, a specific view or subset of the entire
database can be constructed. This organization is illustrated in Fig. 14-1 with the DATA
DICTIONARY serving as a translator between the external data models and the database
management system.
Behind the operations associated with querying and manipulating relations is an explicit
algebraic theory. This algebra defines the various operations that can be performed on relations,
such as union (consisting of all rows belonging to one or the other of two relations), intersection
(consisting of all rows belonging to both of two relations), minus (consisting of all rows
belonging to one relation and not another), or projection (consisting of a subset of the attributes
from a relation). The algebraic underpinnings of relational databases permits rigorous definitions
and confidence that operations will be accomplished in the desired fashion. [7]
Example 14-3: A Subcontractor Relation
As an illustration of the preceding discussion, consider the problem of developing a database of
possible subcontractors for construction projects. This database might be desired by the cost
estimation department of a general contractor to identify subcontractors to ask to bid on parts of
a project. Appropriate subcontractors appearing in the database could be contacted to prepare
bids for specific projects. Table 14-3 lists the various attributes which might be required for such
a list and an example entry, including the subcontractor's name, contact person, address, size
(large, medium or small), and capabilities.
TABLE 14-3 Subcontractor Relation Example
Attribute
NAME
CONTACT
PHONE
STREET
CITY
STATE
ZIPCODE
SIZE
CONCRETE
ELECTRICAL
MASONRY
etc.
Example
XYZ Electrical Co.
Betty XYZ
(412) xxx-xxxx
xxx Mulberry St.
Pittsburgh
PA
152xx
large
no
yes
no
To use this relation, a cost estimator might be interested in identifying large, electrical
subcontractors in the database. A query typed into the DBM such as:
Type of
Bridge
200' Valley
Steel Plate
Limestone
Girder
Altoona Railroad
250' High
Concrete Pittsburgh River
Sandy Loam
Arch
Allentown Highway
135' Deep Pile
Steel Truss
Foundation
Erection
Time
(Months)
5
7
8
-$50,000
-27,500
35,000
As an example, suppose that a bridge is to be built with a span of 250 feet, located in Pittsburgh
PA, and crossing a river with limestone sub-strata. In initial or preliminary planning, a designer
might query the database four separate times as follows:
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN > 200 and SPAN < 300 and where
CROSSING = "river"
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN > 200 and SPAN < 300 and where
SITE CONDITIONS = "Limestone"
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN < 300 and SPAN > 200 and
ESTIMATED LESS ACTUAL COST < 100,000.
Each SELECT operation would yield the bridge examples in the database which corresponds to
the desired selection criteria. In practice, an input/output interpreter program should be available
to translate these inquiries to and from the DBM and an appropriate problem oriented language.
The four queries may represent subsequent thoughts of a designer faced with these problem
conditions. He or she may first ask, "What experience have we had with bridges of this span over
rivers?" "What experience have we had with bridges of this span with these site conditions?
What is our experience with steel girder bridges in Pennsylvania? For bridges of this span, how
many and which were erected without a sizable cost overrun? We could pose many more
questions of this general type using only the small data table shown in Table 14-4.
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as branches and nodes from a particular base. [8] As an example, Figure 14-2 illustrates a
hierarchical structure for rented equipment costs. In this case, each piece of equipment belongs to
a particular supplier and has a cost which might vary by the duration of use. To find the cost of a
particular piece of equipment from a particular supplier, a query would first find the supplier,
then the piece of equipment and then the relevant price.
The hierarchical model has the characteristic that each item has a single predecessor and a
variable number of subordinate data items. This structure is natural for many applications, such
as the equipment cost information described above. However, it might be necessary to construct
similar hierarchies for each project to record the equipment used or for each piece of equipment
to record possible suppliers. Otherwise, generating these lists of assignments from the database
illustrated in Figure 14-2 would be difficult. For example, finding the least expensive supplier of
a crane might involve searching every supplier and every equipment node in the database to find
all crane prices.
The network model or database organization retains the organization of information on branches
and nodes, but does not require a tree of structure such as the one in Figure 14-2. [9] This gives
greater flexibility but does not necessarily provide ease of access to all data items. For example,
Figure 14-3 shows a portion of a network model database for a building. The structural member
shown in the figure is related to four adjoining members, data on the joints designed for each
end, an assembly related to a room, and an aggregation for similar members to record member
specifications.
While the early, large databases were based on the hierarchical or network organizations, the
relational model is now preferred in many applications due to its flexibility and conceptual
simplicity. Relational databases form the kernel for large systems such as ORACLE or SAP.
However, databases distributed among numerous servers may have a network structure (as in
Figure 14-3), with full relational databases contained at one or more nodes. Similarly, "data
warehouse" organizations may contain several different types of databases and information files.
For these data warehouses, more complicated search approaches are essential, such as automatic
indexing of multi-media files such as photographs.
More recently, some new forms of organized databases have appeared, spurred in part by work in
artificial intelligence. For example, Figure 14-4 illustrates a frame data structure used to
represent a building design element. This frame describes the location, type, cost, material,
scheduled work time, etc. for a particular concrete footing. A frame is a general purpose data
representation scheme in which information is arranged in slots within a named frame. Slots may
contain lists, values, text, procedural statements (such as calculation rules), pointers or other
entities. Frames can be inter-connected so that information may be inherited between slots.
Figure 14-5 illustrates a set of inter-connected frames used to describe a building design and
construction plan. [10] Object oriented data representation is similar in that very flexible local
arrangements of data are permitted. While these types of data storage organizations are active
areas of research, commercial database systems based on these organizations are not yet
available.
commonly employed special purpose datafiles. A datafile consists of a set of records arranged
and defined for a single application system. Relational information between items in a record or
between records is not explicitly described or available to other application systems. For
example, a file of project activity durations and scheduled times might be assembled and
manipulated by a project scheduling system. This datafile would not necessarily be available to
the accounting system or to corporate planners.
A centralized DBM has several advantages over such stand-alone systems: [11]
Reduced redundancy good planning can allow duplicate or similar data stored in
different files for different applications to be combined and stored only once.
Improved availability information may be made available to any application program
through the use of the DBM
Reduced inconsistency if the same data is stored in more than one place, then updating
in one place and not everywhere can lead to inconsistencies in the database.
For the purpose of project management, the issue of improved availability is particularly
important. Most application programs create and own particular datafiles in the sense that
information is difficult to obtain directly for other applications. Common problems in attempting
to transfer data between such special purpose files are missing data items, unusable formats, and
unknown formats.
As an example, suppose that the Purchasing Department keeps records of equipment rental costs
on each project underway. This data is arranged so that payment of invoices can be handled
expeditiously and project accounts are properly debited. The records are arranged by individual
suppliers for this purpose. These records might not be particularly useful for the purpose of
preparing cost estimates since:
No direct way of abstracting the equipment codes and prices might exist.
An alternative arrangement might be to separately record equipment rental costs in (1) the
Purchasing Department Records, (2) the Cost Estimating Division, and (3) the Company
warehouse. While these multiple databases might each be designed for the individual use, they
represent considerable redundancy and could easily result in inconsistencies as prices change
over time. With a central DBM, desired views for each of these three users could be developed
from a single database of equipment costs.
A manager need not conclude from this discussion that initiating a formal database will be a
panacea. Life is never so simple. Installing and maintaining databases is a costly and time
An architectural system for design can provide an example of an integrated system. [12] First, a
database can serve the role of storing a library of information on standard architectural features
and component properties. These standard components can be called from the database library
and introduced into a new design. The database can also store the description of a new design,
such as the number, type and location of individual building components. The design itself can
be composed using an interactive graphics program. This program would have the capability to
store a new or modified design in the database. A graphics program typically has the capability to
compose numerous, two or three dimensional views of a design, to introduce shading (to
represent shadows and provide greater realism to a perspective), and to allow editing (including
moving, replicating, or sizing individual components). Once a design is completed and its
description stored in a database, numerous analysis programs can be applied, such as:
structural analysis,
daylight contour programs to produce plots of available daylight in each room,
Production information can also be obtained from the integrated system, such as:
electrical layout,
The advantage of an integrated system of this sort is that each program need only be designed to
communicate with a single database. Accomplishing appropriate transformations of data between
each pair of programs would be much more difficult. Moreover, as new applications are required,
they can be added into an integrated system without extensive modifications to existing
programs. For example, a library of specifications language or a program for joint design might
be included in the design system described above. Similarly, a construction planning and cost
estimating system might also be added.
The use of integrated systems with open access to a database is not common for construction
activities at the current time. Typically, commercial systems have a closed architecture with
simple datafiles or a "captive," inaccessible database management system. However, the benefits
of an open architecture with an accessible database are considerable as new programs and
requirements become available over time.
Example 14-5: An Integrated System Design
As an example, Figure 14-7 illustrates the computer aided engineering (CAE) system envisioned
for the knowledge and information-intensive construction industry of the future. [13] In this
system, comprehensive engineering and "business" databases support different functions
throughout the life time of a project. The construction phase itself includes overlapping design
and construction functions. During this construction phase, computer aided design (CAD) and
computer aided manufacturing (CAM) aids are available to the project manager. Databases
recording the "as-built" geometry and specifications of a facility as well as the subsequent
history can be particularly useful during the use and maintenance life cycle phase of the facility.
As changes or repairs are needed, plans for the facility can be accessed from the database.
Dynamic changes in information needs. As a project evolves, the level of detail and the
types of information required will vary greatly.
Database diseconomies of scale. As any database gets larger, it becomes less and less
efficient to find desired information.
In addition to these problems, there will always be a set of untidy information which cannot be
easily defined or formalized to the extent necessary for storage in a database.
While a single database may be undesirable, it is also apparent that it is desirable to structure
independent application systems or databases so that measurement information need only be
manually recorded once and communication between the database might exist. Consider the
following examples illustrating the desirability of communication between independent
application systems or databases. While some progress has occurred, the level of integration and
existing mechanisms for information flow in project management is fairly primitive. By and
large, information flow relies primarily on talking, written texts of reports and specifications and
drawings.
Example 14-6: Time Cards
Time card information of labor is used to determine the amount which employees are to be paid
and to provide records of work performed by activity. In many firms, the system of payroll
accounts and the database of project management accounts (i.e., expenditure by activity) are
maintained independently. As a result, the information available from time cards is often
recorded twice in mutually incompatible formats. This repetition increases costs and the
possibility of transcription errors. The use of a preprocessor system to check for errors and
inconsistencies and to format the information from each card for the various systems involved is
likely to be a significant improvement (Figure 14-8). Alternatively, a communications facility
between two databases of payroll and project management accounts might be developed.
processing is difficult, it offers obvious advantages in avoiding repetition of work, delays and
transcription errors. A de facto standard for transfer of geometric information emerged with the
dominance of the AUTOCAD design system in the A/E/C industry. Information transfer was
accomplished by copying AUTOCAD files from user to user, including uses on construction sites
to visualize the design. More flexible and extensive standards for design information transfer
also exist, such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) standard developed by the International
Alliance for Interoperability (See http://www.iai-international.org/iai_international/) and the
"Fully Integrated and Automated Project Processes" developed by FIATECH (see
http://www.fiatech.org/)
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14.10 References
1. Au, T., C. Hendrickson and A. Pasquale, "Introduction of a Relational Database Within a
Cost Estimating System," Transportation Research Record 1050, pp. 57-62, 1986.
2. Bosserman, B.E. and M.E. Ford, "Development of Computerized Specifications," ASCE
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, pp.
375-384.
3. Date, C.J., An Introduction to Database Systems, 3rd Ed., Addison-Wesley, 1981.
4. Kim, W., "Relational Database Systems," ACM Computing Surveys, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1979,
pp. 185-211.
5. Mitchell, William J., Computer Aided Architectural Design, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co.,
New York, 1977.
6. Vieceli, A.M., "Communication and Coding of Computerized Construction Project
Information," Unpublished MS Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1984.
7. Wilkinson, R.W., "Computerized Specifications on a Small Project," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, PP. 337-345.
8. Latimer, Dewitt and Chris Hendrickson, Digital Archival of Construction Project
Information, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Automation and Robotics
for Construction, 2002."
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14.11 Problems
1. Suppose we wish to develop a database consisting of contractor names, addresses and
particular specialties as in Table 14-3.
o Suggest two hierarchical organizations of this data.
o
2. Suggest four reports which could be obtained from the warehouse inventory system
described in Section 14.3 and describe what each report might be used for and by whom.
3. Suppose that a general contractor wished to keep a historical database of the results of bid
competitions. Suggest (a) the information that might be stored, and (b) a possible
organization of this information.
4. For your suggested database from Problem 3, implement a prototype system on a
spreadsheet software program.
5. Describe a relational database that would be useful in storing the beginning, ending and
all intermediate stages for blockworld robot movements as described in Problem 6 in
Chapter 9.
6. Describe a relational database that would be appropriate for maintaining activity
scheduling information during project monitoring. Be explicit about what relations would
be defined, the attributes in each relation, and allowable ranges of values.
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14.12 Footnotes
1. See D.F. Rogge, "Delay Reporting Within Cost Accounting System," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. 2, 1984, pp. 289-292. Back
2. The system is based loosely upon a successful construction yard management system
originally for Mellon-Stuart Company, Pittsburgh, PA. in 1983. The authors are indebted to A.
Pasquale for providing the information and operating experience of the system. Back
3. Attributed to R. Lemons in J. Bentley "Programming Pearls," Communications of the ACM,
Vol. 28, No. 9, 1985, pp. 896-899. Back
4. See Wilkinson, R.W. "Computerized Specifications on a Small Project," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, pp. 337-345. Back
5. See C.J. Date, An Introduction to Database Systems, 3rd ed., Addison-Wesley Publishing
Company, Reading, MA, 1981. Back
6. This is one example of a normalization in relational databases. For more formal discussions of
the normalizations of relational databases and the explicit algebra which can be used on such
relations, see Date op cit. Back
7. For a discussion of relational algebra, see E.F. Codd, "Relational Completeness of Data Base
Sublanguages," Courant Computer Science Symposia Series, Vol. 6, Prentice-Hall, l972. Back
8. See D.C. Trichritzis and F.H. Lochovsky, "Hierarchical Data-Base Management," ACM
Computing Surveys Vol. 8, No. 1, 1976, pp. 105-123. Back
9. For a more extensive comparison, see A.S. Michaels, B. Mittman, and C.R. Carlson, "A
Comparison of Relational and CODASYL Approaches to Data-Base Management," ACM
Computing Surveys, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1976, pp. 125-157. Back
10. This organization is used for the central data store in an integrated building design
environment. See Fenves, S., U. Flemming, C. Hendrickson, M. Maher, and G. Schmitt, "An
Integrated Software Environment for Building Design and Construction," Proc. of the Fifth
ASCE Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering, 1987 Back
11. For a discussion, see D.R. Rehak and L.A. Lopez, Computer Aided Engineering Problems
and Prospects, Civil Engr. Systems Lab., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 1981. Back
12. See W.J. Mitchell, Computer-Aided Architectural Design, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., New
York, 1977. Back
13. This figure was adapted from Y. Ohsaki and M. Mikumo, "Computer-aided Engineering in
the Construction Industry," Engineering with Computers, vol. 1, no. 2, 1985, pp. 87-102. Back
Previous Chapter |
Go Up to Table of Contents
Go To Chapter
13
(Quality
Control and
Safety During
Construction)
Go To Chapter
14
(Organization
and Use of
Project
Information)
Table of Contents
Programs
Information Transfer and
Flow
References
Problems
Footnotes
Some of these sets of information evolve as the project proceeds. The financial accounts of
payments over the entire course of the project is an example of overall growth. The passage of
time results in steady additions in these accounts, whereas the addition of a new actor such as a
contractor leads to a sudden jump in the number of accounts. Some information sets are
important at one stage of the process but may then be ignored. Common examples include
planning or structural analysis databases which are not ordinarily used during construction or
operation. However, it may be necessary at later stages in the project to re-do analyses to
consider desired changes. In this case, archival information storage and retrieval become
important. Even after the completion of construction, an historical record may be important for
use during operation, to assess responsibilities in case of facility failures or for planning similar
projects elsewhere.
The control and flow of information is also important for collaborative work environments,
where many professionals are working on different aspects of a project and sharing information.
Collaborative work environments provide facilities for sharing datafiles, tracing decisions, and
communication via electronic mail or video conferencing. The datastores in these collaborative
work environments may become very large.
Based on several construction projects, Maged Abdelsayed of Tardif, Murray & Assoc (Quebec,
Canada) estimated the following average figures for a typical project of US$10 million:
Number of 20inch diameter, 20 year old, 50 feet high, trees used to generate this volume
of paper: 6
Equivalent number of Mega Bytes of electronic data to hold this volume of paper
(scanned): 3,000 MB
While there may be substantial costs due to inaccurate or missing information, there are also
significant costs associated with the generation, storage, transfer, retrieval and other
manipulation of information. In addition to the costs of clerical work and providing aids such as
computers, the organization and review of information command an inordinate amount of the
attention of project managers, which may be the scarcest resource on any construction project. It
is useful, therefore, to understand the scope and alternatives for organizing project information.
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Numerous sources of error are expected for project information. While numerical values are
often reported to the nearest cent or values of equivalent precision, it is rare that the actual values
are so accurately known. Living with some uncertainty is an inescapable situation, and a prudent
manager should have an understanding of the uncertainty in different types of information and
the possibility of drawing misleading conclusions.
We have already discussed the uncertainty inherent in making forecasts of project costs and
durations sometime in the future. Forecast uncertainty also exists in the short term. For example,
consider estimates of work completed. Every project manager is familiar with situations in which
the final few bits of work for a task take an inordinate amount of time. Unforeseen problems,
inadequate quality on already completed work, lack of attention, accidents, or postponing the
most difficult work problems to the end can all contribute to making the final portion of an
activity actually require far more time and effort than expected. The net result is that estimates of
the actual proportion of work completed are often inaccurate.
Some inaccuracy in reports and estimates can arise from conscious choices made by workers,
foremen or managers. If the value of insuring accuracy is thought to be low or nonexistent, then
a rational worker will not expend effort or time to gather or to report information accurately.
Many project scheduling systems flounder on exactly this type of non-reporting or mis-reporting.
The original schedule can quickly become extremely misleading without accurate updating!
Only if all parties concerned have specific mandates or incentives to report accurately will the
data be reliable.
Another source of inaccuracy comes from transcription errors of various sorts. Typographical
errors, incorrect measurements from reading equipment, or other recording and calculation errors
may creep into the sets of information which are used in project management. Despite intensive
efforts to check and eliminate such errors, their complete eradication is virtually impossible.
One method of indicating the relative accuracy of numerical data is to report ranges or expected
deviations of an estimate or measurement. For example, a measurement might be reported as 198
ft. + 2 ft. There are two common interpretations of these deviations. First, a range (such as + 2)
might be chosen so that the actual value is certain to be within the indicated range. In the case
above, the actual length would be somewhere between 196 and 200 feet with this convention.
Alternatively, this deviation might indicate the typical range of the estimate or measurement. In
this case, the example above might imply that there is, say, a two-thirds chance that the actual
length is between 196 and 200.
When the absolute range of a quantity is very large or unknown, the use of a statistical standard
deviation as a measure of uncertainty may be useful. If a quantity is measured n times resulting is
a set of values xi (i = 1,2,...,n), then the average or mean value then the average or mean value is
given by:
(14.1)
can be estimated as the square root s of the sample variance s2, i.e.
(14.2)
Thus, simply examining cost account information may not lead to a correct diagnosis of a
problem or to the correct managerial responses.
Example 14-2: Interest Charges
Financial or interest charges are usually accumulated in a separate account for projects, while the
accounts associated with particular activities represent actual expenditures. For example,
planning activities might cost $10,000 for a small project during the first year of a two year
project. Since dollar expenditures have a time value, this $10,000 cost in year 1 is not equivalent
in value to a $10,000 cost in year 2. In particular, financing the early $10,000 involves payment
of interest or, similarly, the loss of investment opportunities. If the borrowing rate was 10%, then
financing the first year $10,000 expenditure would require $10,000 x 0.10 = $1,000 and the
value of the expenditure by the end of the second year of the project would be $11,000. Thus,
some portion of the overall interest charges represents a cost associated with planning activities.
Recognizing the true value of expenditures made at different periods of time is an important
element in devising rational planning and management strategies.
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One common mechanism to organize record keeping is to fill out cards recording the transfer of
items to or from a job site. Table 14-1 illustrates one possible transfer record. In this case, seven
items were requested for the Carnegie-Mellon job site (project number 83-1557). These seven
items would be loaded on a delivery truck, along with a copy of the transfer record. Shown in
Table 14-1 is a code number identifying each item (0609.02, 0609.03, etc.), the quantity of each
item requested, an item description and a unit price. For equipment items, an equipment number
identifying the individual piece of equipment used is also recorded, such as grinder No. 4517 in
Table 14-1; a unit price is not specified for equipment but a daily rental charge might be
imposed.
TABLE 14-1 Illustration of a Construction Warehouse Transfer Record
TRANSFER SHEET NUMBER 100311
Deliver To: Carnegie-Mellon
Received From: Pittsburgh Warehouse
ITEM NO. EQ. NO. QTY
0609.02
0609.03
0188.21
0996.01
0607.03
0172.00
0181.53
4517
Preparer: Vicki
DESCRIPTION
Date: x/xx/xx
Transfer sheets are numbered (such as No. 100311 in Table 14-1), dated and the preparer
identified to facilitate control of the record keeping process. During the course of a month,
numerous transfer records of this type are accumulated. At the end of a month, each of the
transfer records is examined to compile the various items or equipment used at a project and the
appropriate charges. Constructing these bills would be a tedious manual task. Equipment
movements would have to be tracked individually, days at each site counted, and the daily charge
accumulated for each project. For example, Table 14-1 records the transfer of grinder No. 4517
to a job site. This project would be charged a daily rental rate until the grinder was returned.
Hundreds or thousands of individual item transfers would have to be examined, and the process
of preparing bills could easily require a week or two of effort.
In addition to generating billing information, a variety of reports would be useful in the process
of managing a company's equipment and individual projects. Records of the history of use of
particular pieces of equipment are useful for planning maintenance and deciding on the sale or
scrapping of equipment. Reports on the cumulative amount of materials and equipment delivered
to a job site would be of obvious benefit to project managers. Composite reports on the amount,
location, and use of pieces of equipment of particular types are also useful in making decisions
about the purchase of new equipment, inventory control, or for project planning. Unfortunately,
producing each of these reports requires manually sifting through a large number of transfer
cards. Alternatively, record keeping for these specific projects could have to proceed by keeping
multiple records of the same information. For example, equipment transfers might be recorded
on (1) a file for a particular piece of equipment and (2) a file for a particular project, in addition
to the basic transfer form illustrated in Table 14-1. Even with these redundant records, producing
the various desired reports would be time consuming.
Organizing this inventory information in a computer program is a practical and desirable
innovation. In addition to speeding up billing (and thereby reducing borrowing costs),
application programs can readily provide various reports or views of the basic inventory
information described above. Information can be entered directly to the computer program as
needed. For example, the transfer record shown in Table 14-1 is based upon an input screen to a
computer program which, in turn, had been designed to duplicate the manual form used prior to
computerization. Use of the computer also allows some interactive aids in preparing the transfer
form. This type of aid follows a simple rule: "Don't make the user provide information that the
system already knows." [3] In using the form shown in Table 14-1, a clerk need only enter the
code and quantity for an item; the verbal description and unit cost of the item then appear
automatically. A copy of the transfer form can be printed locally, while the data is stored in the
computer for subsequent processing. As a result, preparing transfer forms and record keeping are
rapidly and effectively performed.
More dramatically, the computerized information allows warehouse personnel both to ask
questions about equipment management and to readily generate the requisite data for answering
such questions. The records of transfers can be readily processed by computer programs to
develop bills and other reports. For example, proposals to purchase new pieces of equipment can
be rapidly and critically reviewed after summarizing the actual usage of existing equipment.
Ultimately, good organization of information will typically lead to the desire to store new types
of data and to provide new views of this information as standard managerial tools.
Of course, implementing an information system such as the warehouse inventory database
requires considerable care to insure that the resulting program is capable of accomplishing the
desired task. In the warehouse inventory system, a variety of details are required to make the
computerized system an acceptable alternative to a long standing manual record keeping
procedure. Coping with these details makes a big difference in the system's usefulness. For
example, changes to the status of equipment are generally made by recording transfers as
illustrated in Table 14-1. However, a few status changes are not accomplished by physical
movement. One example is a charge for air conditioning in field trailers: even though the air
conditioners may be left in the field, the construction project should not be charged for the air
conditioner after it has been turned off during the cold weather months. A special status change
report may be required for such details. Other details of record keeping require similar special
controls.
Even with a capable program, simplicity of design for users is a critical factor affecting the
successful implementation of a system. In the warehouse inventory system described above,
input forms and initial reports were designed to duplicate the existing manual, paper-based
records. As a result, warehouse clerks could readily understand what information was required
and its ultimate use. A good rule to follow is the Principle of Least Astonishment: make
communications with users as consistent and predictable as possible in designing programs.
Finally, flexibility of systems for changes is an important design and implementation concern.
New reports or views of the data is a common requirement as the system is used. For example,
the introduction of a new accounting system would require changes in the communications
procedure from the warehouse inventory system to record changes and other cost items.
In sum, computerizing the warehouse inventory system could save considerable labor, speed up
billing, and facilitate better management control. Against these advantages must be placed the
cost of introducing computer hardware and software in the warehouse.
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A manager need not be concerned with the details of data storage since this internal
representation and manipulation is regulated by the Database Manager Program (DBM). The
DBM is the software program that directs the storage, maintenance, manipulation and retrieval of
data. Users retrieve or store data by issuing specific requests to the DBM. The objective of
introducing a DBM is to free the user from the detail of exactly how data are stored and
manipulated. At the same time, many different users with a wide variety of needs can use the
same database by calling on the DBM. Usually the DBM will be available to a user by means of
a special query language. For example, a manager might ask a DBM to report on all project tasks
which are scheduled to be underway on a particular date. The desirable properties of a DBM
include the ability to provide the user with ready access to the stored data and to maintain the
integrity and security of the data. Numerous commercial DBM exist which provide these
capabilities and can be readily adopted to project management applications.
While the actual storage of the information in a database will depend upon the particular
machine and storage media employed, a Conceptual Data Model exists which provides the user
with an idea or abstract representation of the data organization. (More formally, the overall
configuration of the information in the database is called the conceptual schema.) For example, a
piece of data might be viewed as a particular value within a record of a datafile. In this
conceptual model, a datafile for an application system consists of a series of records with predefined variables within each record. A record is simply a sequence of variable values, which
may be text characters or numerals. This datafile model is one of the earliest and most important
data organization structures. But other views of data organization exist and can be exceedingly
useful. The next section describes one such general model, called the relational model.
Continuing with the elements in Figure 14-1, the data dictionary contains the definitions of the
information in the database. In some systems, data dictionaries are limited to descriptions of the
items in the database. More general systems employ the data dictionary as the information source
for anything dealing with the database systems. It documents the design of the database: what
data are stored, how the data is related, what are the allowable values for data items, etc. The
data dictionary may also contain user authorizations specifying who may have access to
particular pieces of information. Another important element of the data dictionary is a
specification of allowable ranges for pieces of data; by prohibiting the input of erroneous data,
the accuracy of the database improves.
External models are the means by which the users view the database. Of all the information in
the database, one particular user's view may be just a subset of the total. A particular view may
also require specific translation or manipulation of the information in the database. For example,
the external model for a paycheck writing program might consist solely of a list of employee
names and salary totals, even if the underlying database would include employee hours and
hourly pay rates. As far as that program is concerned, no other data exists in the database. The
DBM provides a means of translating particular external models or views into the overall data
model. Different users can view the data in quite distinct fashions, yet the data itself can be
centrally stored and need not be copied separately for each user. External models provide the
format by which any specific information needed is retrieved. Database "users" can be human
operators or other application programs such as the paycheck writing program mentioned above.
Finally, the Database Administrator is an individual or group charged with the maintenance and
design of the database, including approving access to the stored information. The assignment of
the database administrator should not be taken lightly. Especially in large organizations with
many users, the database administrator is vital to the success of the database system. For small
projects, the database administrator might be an assistant project manager or even the project
manager.
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Attribute Description
Attribute Type
Key
Pre-defined Code
Text
Text
(restricted to allowable units)
Pre-defined Code
Numerical
Text
Numerical
Date Text
Numerical
Date Text
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Using Table 14-2, a typical unit cost entry for an activity in construction might be:
ITEM_CODE: 04.2-66-025
DESCRIPTION: common brick masonry, 12" thick wall, 19.0 bricks per S.F.
WORK_UNIT: 1000 bricks
CREW_CODE: 04.2-3
OUTPUT: 1.9
TIME_UNIT: Shift
MATL_UNIT_COST: 124
DATEMCOS: June-09-79
INSTCOST: 257
DATEICOS: August-23-79
This entry summarizes the unit costs associated with construction of 12" thick brick masonry
walls, as indicated by the item DESCRIPTION. The ITEM_CODE is a numerical code
identifying a particular activity. This code might identify general categories as well; in this case,
04.2 refers to general masonry work. ITEM_CODE might be based on the MASTERFORMAT
or other coding scheme. The CREW_CODE entry identifies the standard crew which would be
involved in the activity. The actual composition of the standard crew would be found in a CREW
RELATION under the entry 04.2-3, which is the third standard crew involved in masonry work
(04.2). This ability to point to other relations reduces the redundancy or duplication of
information in the database. In this case, standard crew number 04.2-3 might be used for
numerous masonry construction tasks, but the definition of this crew need only appear once.
WORK_UNIT, OUTPUT and TIME_UNIT summarize the expected output for this task with a
standard crew and define the standard unit of measurement for the item. In this case, costs are
given per thousand bricks per shift. Finally, material (MATL_UNIT_COST) and installation
(INSTCOSTS) costs are recorded along with the date (DATEMCOS and DATEICOS) at which
the prices were available and entered in the database. The date of entry is useful to insure that
any inflation in costs can be considered during use of the data.
The data recorded in each row could be obtained by survey during bid preparations, from past
project experience or from commercial services. For example, the data recorded in the Table 142 relation could be obtained as nationwide averages from commercial sources.
An advantage of the relational database model is that the number of attributes and rows in each
relation can be expanded as desired. For example, a manager might wish to divide material costs
(MATL_UNIT_COST) into attributes for specific materials such as cement, aggregate and other
ingredients of concrete in the unit cost relation defined in Table 14-2. As additional items are
defined or needed, their associated data can be entered in the database as another row (or tuple)
in the unit cost relation. Also, new relations can be defined as the need arises. Hence, the
relational model of database organization can be quite flexible in application. In practice, this is a
crucial advantage. Application systems can be expected to change radically over time, and a
flexible system is highly desirable.
With a relational database, it is straightforward to issue queries for particular data items or to
combine data from different relations. For example, a manager might wish to produce a report of
the crew composition needed on a site to accomplish a given list of tasks. Assembling this report
would require accessing the unit price information to find the standard crew and then combining
information about the construction activity or item (eg. quantity desired) with crew information.
However, to effectively accomplish this type of manipulation requires the definition of a "key" in
each relation.
In Table 14-2, the ITEMCODE provides a unique identifier or key for each row. No other row
should have the same ITEMCODE in any one relation. Having a unique key reduces the
redundancy of data, since only one row is included in the database for each activity. It also
avoids error. For example, suppose one queried the database to find the material cost entered on a
particular date. This response might be misleading since more than one material cost could have
been entered on the same date. Similarly, if there are multiple rows with the same ITEMCODE
value, then a query might give erroneous responses if one of the rows was out of date. Finally,
each row has only a single entry for each attribute. [6]
The ability to combine or separate relations into new arrangements permits the definition of
alternative views or external models of the information. Since there are usually a number of
different users of databases, this can be very useful. For example, the payroll division of an
organization would normally desire a quite different organization of information about
employees than would a project manager. By explicitly defining the type and organization of
information a particular user group or application requires, a specific view or subset of the entire
database can be constructed. This organization is illustrated in Fig. 14-1 with the DATA
DICTIONARY serving as a translator between the external data models and the database
management system.
Behind the operations associated with querying and manipulating relations is an explicit
algebraic theory. This algebra defines the various operations that can be performed on relations,
such as union (consisting of all rows belonging to one or the other of two relations), intersection
(consisting of all rows belonging to both of two relations), minus (consisting of all rows
belonging to one relation and not another), or projection (consisting of a subset of the attributes
from a relation). The algebraic underpinnings of relational databases permits rigorous definitions
and confidence that operations will be accomplished in the desired fashion. [7]
Example 14-3: A Subcontractor Relation
As an illustration of the preceding discussion, consider the problem of developing a database of
possible subcontractors for construction projects. This database might be desired by the cost
estimation department of a general contractor to identify subcontractors to ask to bid on parts of
a project. Appropriate subcontractors appearing in the database could be contacted to prepare
bids for specific projects. Table 14-3 lists the various attributes which might be required for such
a list and an example entry, including the subcontractor's name, contact person, address, size
(large, medium or small), and capabilities.
TABLE 14-3 Subcontractor Relation Example
Attribute
NAME
CONTACT
PHONE
STREET
CITY
STATE
ZIPCODE
SIZE
CONCRETE
ELECTRICAL
MASONRY
etc.
Example
XYZ Electrical Co.
Betty XYZ
(412) xxx-xxxx
xxx Mulberry St.
Pittsburgh
PA
152xx
large
no
yes
no
To use this relation, a cost estimator might be interested in identifying large, electrical
subcontractors in the database. A query typed into the DBM such as:
Type of
Bridge
200' Valley
Steel Plate
Limestone
Girder
Altoona Railroad
250' High
Concrete Pittsburgh River
Sandy Loam
Arch
Allentown Highway
135' Deep Pile
Steel Truss
Foundation
Erection
Time
(Months)
5
7
8
-$50,000
-27,500
35,000
As an example, suppose that a bridge is to be built with a span of 250 feet, located in Pittsburgh
PA, and crossing a river with limestone sub-strata. In initial or preliminary planning, a designer
might query the database four separate times as follows:
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN > 200 and SPAN < 300 and where
CROSSING = "river"
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN > 200 and SPAN < 300 and where
SITE CONDITIONS = "Limestone"
SELECT from BRIDGEWORK where SPAN < 300 and SPAN > 200 and
ESTIMATED LESS ACTUAL COST < 100,000.
Each SELECT operation would yield the bridge examples in the database which corresponds to
the desired selection criteria. In practice, an input/output interpreter program should be available
to translate these inquiries to and from the DBM and an appropriate problem oriented language.
The four queries may represent subsequent thoughts of a designer faced with these problem
conditions. He or she may first ask, "What experience have we had with bridges of this span over
rivers?" "What experience have we had with bridges of this span with these site conditions?
What is our experience with steel girder bridges in Pennsylvania? For bridges of this span, how
many and which were erected without a sizable cost overrun? We could pose many more
questions of this general type using only the small data table shown in Table 14-4.
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as branches and nodes from a particular base. [8] As an example, Figure 14-2 illustrates a
hierarchical structure for rented equipment costs. In this case, each piece of equipment belongs to
a particular supplier and has a cost which might vary by the duration of use. To find the cost of a
particular piece of equipment from a particular supplier, a query would first find the supplier,
then the piece of equipment and then the relevant price.
The hierarchical model has the characteristic that each item has a single predecessor and a
variable number of subordinate data items. This structure is natural for many applications, such
as the equipment cost information described above. However, it might be necessary to construct
similar hierarchies for each project to record the equipment used or for each piece of equipment
to record possible suppliers. Otherwise, generating these lists of assignments from the database
illustrated in Figure 14-2 would be difficult. For example, finding the least expensive supplier of
a crane might involve searching every supplier and every equipment node in the database to find
all crane prices.
The network model or database organization retains the organization of information on branches
and nodes, but does not require a tree of structure such as the one in Figure 14-2. [9] This gives
greater flexibility but does not necessarily provide ease of access to all data items. For example,
Figure 14-3 shows a portion of a network model database for a building. The structural member
shown in the figure is related to four adjoining members, data on the joints designed for each
end, an assembly related to a room, and an aggregation for similar members to record member
specifications.
While the early, large databases were based on the hierarchical or network organizations, the
relational model is now preferred in many applications due to its flexibility and conceptual
simplicity. Relational databases form the kernel for large systems such as ORACLE or SAP.
However, databases distributed among numerous servers may have a network structure (as in
Figure 14-3), with full relational databases contained at one or more nodes. Similarly, "data
warehouse" organizations may contain several different types of databases and information files.
For these data warehouses, more complicated search approaches are essential, such as automatic
indexing of multi-media files such as photographs.
More recently, some new forms of organized databases have appeared, spurred in part by work in
artificial intelligence. For example, Figure 14-4 illustrates a frame data structure used to
represent a building design element. This frame describes the location, type, cost, material,
scheduled work time, etc. for a particular concrete footing. A frame is a general purpose data
representation scheme in which information is arranged in slots within a named frame. Slots may
contain lists, values, text, procedural statements (such as calculation rules), pointers or other
entities. Frames can be inter-connected so that information may be inherited between slots.
Figure 14-5 illustrates a set of inter-connected frames used to describe a building design and
construction plan. [10] Object oriented data representation is similar in that very flexible local
arrangements of data are permitted. While these types of data storage organizations are active
areas of research, commercial database systems based on these organizations are not yet
available.
commonly employed special purpose datafiles. A datafile consists of a set of records arranged
and defined for a single application system. Relational information between items in a record or
between records is not explicitly described or available to other application systems. For
example, a file of project activity durations and scheduled times might be assembled and
manipulated by a project scheduling system. This datafile would not necessarily be available to
the accounting system or to corporate planners.
A centralized DBM has several advantages over such stand-alone systems: [11]
Reduced redundancy good planning can allow duplicate or similar data stored in
different files for different applications to be combined and stored only once.
Improved availability information may be made available to any application program
through the use of the DBM
Reduced inconsistency if the same data is stored in more than one place, then updating
in one place and not everywhere can lead to inconsistencies in the database.
For the purpose of project management, the issue of improved availability is particularly
important. Most application programs create and own particular datafiles in the sense that
information is difficult to obtain directly for other applications. Common problems in attempting
to transfer data between such special purpose files are missing data items, unusable formats, and
unknown formats.
As an example, suppose that the Purchasing Department keeps records of equipment rental costs
on each project underway. This data is arranged so that payment of invoices can be handled
expeditiously and project accounts are properly debited. The records are arranged by individual
suppliers for this purpose. These records might not be particularly useful for the purpose of
preparing cost estimates since:
No direct way of abstracting the equipment codes and prices might exist.
An alternative arrangement might be to separately record equipment rental costs in (1) the
Purchasing Department Records, (2) the Cost Estimating Division, and (3) the Company
warehouse. While these multiple databases might each be designed for the individual use, they
represent considerable redundancy and could easily result in inconsistencies as prices change
over time. With a central DBM, desired views for each of these three users could be developed
from a single database of equipment costs.
A manager need not conclude from this discussion that initiating a formal database will be a
panacea. Life is never so simple. Installing and maintaining databases is a costly and time
An architectural system for design can provide an example of an integrated system. [12] First, a
database can serve the role of storing a library of information on standard architectural features
and component properties. These standard components can be called from the database library
and introduced into a new design. The database can also store the description of a new design,
such as the number, type and location of individual building components. The design itself can
be composed using an interactive graphics program. This program would have the capability to
store a new or modified design in the database. A graphics program typically has the capability to
compose numerous, two or three dimensional views of a design, to introduce shading (to
represent shadows and provide greater realism to a perspective), and to allow editing (including
moving, replicating, or sizing individual components). Once a design is completed and its
description stored in a database, numerous analysis programs can be applied, such as:
structural analysis,
daylight contour programs to produce plots of available daylight in each room,
Production information can also be obtained from the integrated system, such as:
electrical layout,
The advantage of an integrated system of this sort is that each program need only be designed to
communicate with a single database. Accomplishing appropriate transformations of data between
each pair of programs would be much more difficult. Moreover, as new applications are required,
they can be added into an integrated system without extensive modifications to existing
programs. For example, a library of specifications language or a program for joint design might
be included in the design system described above. Similarly, a construction planning and cost
estimating system might also be added.
The use of integrated systems with open access to a database is not common for construction
activities at the current time. Typically, commercial systems have a closed architecture with
simple datafiles or a "captive," inaccessible database management system. However, the benefits
of an open architecture with an accessible database are considerable as new programs and
requirements become available over time.
Example 14-5: An Integrated System Design
As an example, Figure 14-7 illustrates the computer aided engineering (CAE) system envisioned
for the knowledge and information-intensive construction industry of the future. [13] In this
system, comprehensive engineering and "business" databases support different functions
throughout the life time of a project. The construction phase itself includes overlapping design
and construction functions. During this construction phase, computer aided design (CAD) and
computer aided manufacturing (CAM) aids are available to the project manager. Databases
recording the "as-built" geometry and specifications of a facility as well as the subsequent
history can be particularly useful during the use and maintenance life cycle phase of the facility.
As changes or repairs are needed, plans for the facility can be accessed from the database.
Dynamic changes in information needs. As a project evolves, the level of detail and the
types of information required will vary greatly.
Database diseconomies of scale. As any database gets larger, it becomes less and less
efficient to find desired information.
In addition to these problems, there will always be a set of untidy information which cannot be
easily defined or formalized to the extent necessary for storage in a database.
While a single database may be undesirable, it is also apparent that it is desirable to structure
independent application systems or databases so that measurement information need only be
manually recorded once and communication between the database might exist. Consider the
following examples illustrating the desirability of communication between independent
application systems or databases. While some progress has occurred, the level of integration and
existing mechanisms for information flow in project management is fairly primitive. By and
large, information flow relies primarily on talking, written texts of reports and specifications and
drawings.
Example 14-6: Time Cards
Time card information of labor is used to determine the amount which employees are to be paid
and to provide records of work performed by activity. In many firms, the system of payroll
accounts and the database of project management accounts (i.e., expenditure by activity) are
maintained independently. As a result, the information available from time cards is often
recorded twice in mutually incompatible formats. This repetition increases costs and the
possibility of transcription errors. The use of a preprocessor system to check for errors and
inconsistencies and to format the information from each card for the various systems involved is
likely to be a significant improvement (Figure 14-8). Alternatively, a communications facility
between two databases of payroll and project management accounts might be developed.
processing is difficult, it offers obvious advantages in avoiding repetition of work, delays and
transcription errors. A de facto standard for transfer of geometric information emerged with the
dominance of the AUTOCAD design system in the A/E/C industry. Information transfer was
accomplished by copying AUTOCAD files from user to user, including uses on construction sites
to visualize the design. More flexible and extensive standards for design information transfer
also exist, such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) standard developed by the International
Alliance for Interoperability (See http://www.iai-international.org/iai_international/) and the
"Fully Integrated and Automated Project Processes" developed by FIATECH (see
http://www.fiatech.org/)
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14.10 References
1. Au, T., C. Hendrickson and A. Pasquale, "Introduction of a Relational Database Within a
Cost Estimating System," Transportation Research Record 1050, pp. 57-62, 1986.
2. Bosserman, B.E. and M.E. Ford, "Development of Computerized Specifications," ASCE
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, pp.
375-384.
3. Date, C.J., An Introduction to Database Systems, 3rd Ed., Addison-Wesley, 1981.
4. Kim, W., "Relational Database Systems," ACM Computing Surveys, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1979,
pp. 185-211.
5. Mitchell, William J., Computer Aided Architectural Design, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co.,
New York, 1977.
6. Vieceli, A.M., "Communication and Coding of Computerized Construction Project
Information," Unpublished MS Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1984.
7. Wilkinson, R.W., "Computerized Specifications on a Small Project," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, PP. 337-345.
8. Latimer, Dewitt and Chris Hendrickson, Digital Archival of Construction Project
Information, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Automation and Robotics
for Construction, 2002."
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14.11 Problems
1. Suppose we wish to develop a database consisting of contractor names, addresses and
particular specialties as in Table 14-3.
o Suggest two hierarchical organizations of this data.
o
2. Suggest four reports which could be obtained from the warehouse inventory system
described in Section 14.3 and describe what each report might be used for and by whom.
3. Suppose that a general contractor wished to keep a historical database of the results of bid
competitions. Suggest (a) the information that might be stored, and (b) a possible
organization of this information.
4. For your suggested database from Problem 3, implement a prototype system on a
spreadsheet software program.
5. Describe a relational database that would be useful in storing the beginning, ending and
all intermediate stages for blockworld robot movements as described in Problem 6 in
Chapter 9.
6. Describe a relational database that would be appropriate for maintaining activity
scheduling information during project monitoring. Be explicit about what relations would
be defined, the attributes in each relation, and allowable ranges of values.
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14.12 Footnotes
1. See D.F. Rogge, "Delay Reporting Within Cost Accounting System," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. 2, 1984, pp. 289-292. Back
2. The system is based loosely upon a successful construction yard management system
originally for Mellon-Stuart Company, Pittsburgh, PA. in 1983. The authors are indebted to A.
Pasquale for providing the information and operating experience of the system. Back
3. Attributed to R. Lemons in J. Bentley "Programming Pearls," Communications of the ACM,
Vol. 28, No. 9, 1985, pp. 896-899. Back
4. See Wilkinson, R.W. "Computerized Specifications on a Small Project," ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 110, No. CO3, 1984, pp. 337-345. Back
5. See C.J. Date, An Introduction to Database Systems, 3rd ed., Addison-Wesley Publishing
Company, Reading, MA, 1981. Back
6. This is one example of a normalization in relational databases. For more formal discussions of
the normalizations of relational databases and the explicit algebra which can be used on such
relations, see Date op cit. Back
7. For a discussion of relational algebra, see E.F. Codd, "Relational Completeness of Data Base
Sublanguages," Courant Computer Science Symposia Series, Vol. 6, Prentice-Hall, l972. Back
8. See D.C. Trichritzis and F.H. Lochovsky, "Hierarchical Data-Base Management," ACM
Computing Surveys Vol. 8, No. 1, 1976, pp. 105-123. Back
9. For a more extensive comparison, see A.S. Michaels, B. Mittman, and C.R. Carlson, "A
Comparison of Relational and CODASYL Approaches to Data-Base Management," ACM
Computing Surveys, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1976, pp. 125-157. Back
10. This organization is used for the central data store in an integrated building design
environment. See Fenves, S., U. Flemming, C. Hendrickson, M. Maher, and G. Schmitt, "An
Integrated Software Environment for Building Design and Construction," Proc. of the Fifth
ASCE Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering, 1987 Back
11. For a discussion, see D.R. Rehak and L.A. Lopez, Computer Aided Engineering Problems
and Prospects, Civil Engr. Systems Lab., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 1981. Back
12. See W.J. Mitchell, Computer-Aided Architectural Design, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., New
York, 1977. Back
13. This figure was adapted from Y. Ohsaki and M. Mikumo, "Computer-aided Engineering in
the Construction Industry," Engineering with Computers, vol. 1, no. 2, 1985, pp. 87-102. Back
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