Main Sentences - Review Report On Existing Studies - Hasang HPP Project 130225 PDF

CONSULTING SERVICES UP TO PPA CONCLUSION
FOR
HASANG HYDROPOWER PLANT PROJECT
REVIEW REPORT ON EXISTING STUDIES
February 2013
Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project
Hasang Pjt Site
LOCATION MAP
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION
This Report has been prepared in accordance with the Agreement for Consulting Services up to PPA
Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project (hereinafter referred to as Project) between PT.
Binsar Natorang Energi (hereinafter referred to as BNE) and Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (hereinafter
referred to as NK) signed on December 27, 2012.
2. HYDROLOGY
The probable 100-year flood discharge at the weir site in the Feasibility Study (=539 m3/sec) is
underestimated. It is recommended that the Creagers coefficient at the Hasang weir site shall be 20
at minimum. By applying the coefficient of 20, the 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site
shall be around 1,000 m3/sec at minimum.
Runoff coefficient at the Project under the Average Scenario is as large as 0.67 assuming that mean
annual basin rainfall is 2,500 mm. From hydrological points of view, the Average Scenario with mean
annual runoff depth of 1,681 mm seems to be overestimated. This might cause risk of overestimation
of expected annual energy production. In this respect, it is recommended that the Moderate Scenario
having the mean annual runoff depth of 1,574 mm shall be applied to estimation of annual energy
production of the Project.
3. GEOLOGY
From the geomorphologic and geological viewpoints, it is suggested to; i) adjust the axis of the intake
weir, ii) adjust the location of the de-sander and connecting waterway route, iii) chick and monitor the
possibility of the landslides, iv) add the work adit for construction of the headrace tunnel, v) adjust
alignment of the penstock route, vi) adjust the location of headrace tunnel inlet, vii) provide surface
drains at the cut & cover section, and viii) to make gentler the excavated slope gradients.
4. POWER GENERATION
The project layout proposed in the Feasibility Study is not optimal with the respect of the penstock
length. With this penstock length, the fly wheel effect of the generators (GD2) is required to be
increased to an un-practicable or un-economical level to ensure the stability of penstock and to avoid
excessive pressure rise. Preliminary comparison of the alternatives indicates that the most
recommendable option is to provide newly a surge tank between the head pond and the powerhouse.
The surge tank will be of an exposed cylinder which stands on a ridge above the powerhouse.
Preliminary examination indicates that the tanks diameter will be about 10m and exposed height
about the ground yard will be about 65m. The tank will be of steel, or pre-stressed concrete instead.
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With taking account of the hydrological duration, the river maintenance flow (or duty flow) and the
loss above, the saleable mean annual energy of the Project for checking the project feasibility would
be:
ComparisonofAnnualEnergy
Description
Unit
1.
Hydrology Series
Base Case
Low Case
Reg No. 38
Average
Moderate
Moderate
2.
River maintenance flow
m3/s
1.0
1.0
6.7
3.
Installed Capacity
GW
42.45
42.45
42.45
4.
Theoretical Mean Annual Energy
GWh
288.3
260.5
190.7
5.
Availability
98.5
98.5
98.5
6.
Available Maximum Annual Energy
GWh
284.0
256.7
187.9
7.
Station Loss (2% of 6.)
GWh
5.7
5.1
3.8
8.
Spillage Loss
GWh
2.8
2.6
1.9
9.
Saleable Mean Annual Energy
GWh
275.5
249.0
182.3
Plant Factor
74.1
67.0
49.0
10.
Base Case and Low Case correspond to Annex 17.3 and 17.4 of the Feasibility Study, respectively.
Reg. No. 38 corresponds to the case when the Government Regulation No.38, 2011 is strictly applied to Low
Case.
Source: based on energy simulation in Feasibility Study and Review Team
5. DESIGN ISSUES
Design issues which may cause substantial impact to the project cost are seen in the following table.
DesignIssueswhichmaysubstantiallycauseImpacttoProjectCost
No.
1
Item
Access Road
Re-route
Pavement width
Intake Weir and Power Intake

Location change
Removal of boulders
Debris barrier
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Description
In F/S, the existing road will be widened and paved in the
same route to construct the access road. However, several
sections of them are very steep in longitudinal gradient and
too small horizontal radius. Construction of new road by reroute or improvement of vertical alignment for these
sections will be necessary.
Typical width of pavement is 6.0 m in the Feasibility
Study. It can be reduced to 4.5 m. For passing vehicle each
other, preparation of a passing bay every 500 m interval is
recommendable.
The ridge in the left bank in which the intake is located is
rather thin. After excavation of abutment of the intake weir
and the intake, the remaining sound rock become be very
thin. As the countermeasure, change of layout of the weir
axis is recommended.
There are many big boulders at the intake weir site. Almost
of all of them are derived from the construction works of
the hydropower station in upstream. These boulders shall
be removed to downstream prior to start of the construction
works as much as possible.
In order to prevent entering boulders in front of the power
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Increase of 100-yr flood
Protective measures for piping

3
Intake Channel and De-sander

Protective measures for landslide
Foundation treatment
Deletion of stoplog and additional

gates
Steel lining of flushing channel

4
Headrace Tunnel
Tunnelling in soft materials
Permeability in tuff layer
Work adit
5
Headrace Channel incl. Cut &

Cover
Cutting slope to gentle
Crossing structures
Head Pond and Spillway

Slope protection
Extension of access road
Guide wall of spillway
Spillway section type
Penstock
New provision of surge tank
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intake. It is recommended to construct some debris barrier

structure in upstream of the intake weir.
Due to the underestimate of 100-year flood discharge,
design flood water levels in the above shall be updated and
dimensions of the intake weir shall be increased.
Additional protective measures for piping such as
deepening the cut-off trench or provision of upstream
concrete slab shall be required.
Protective measures such as removal of upper part of
landslide mass shall be required..
According to core logs near the de-sander, foundation is of
more than 50 in SPT, however actual location of the
channel and de-sander is more river side. Some special
treatment of the foundation such as replacement of concrete
with poor soil will be required.
The stoplog in front of gate at the inlet is not necessary
always because this gate is opened in normal condition and
maintenance/repair will be done easily. In the contrary, a
gate will be necessary at the end of the de-sander,
otherwise, water come into the sand trap basin from
downstream during flushing operation and flushing will be
not done effectively.
Flushing channel under the de-sander is recommended to be
constructed with embedded steel liner which is act as form
work because this structure is small and complicated.
The followings shall be noted as the risk factors for
tunneling; i) intercalation of Palaeo-soil and soft materials,
ii) thin earth cover and iii) ground water level.
If the Tuff layer shows high permeability, careful grouting
surrounding rock and or membrane behind concrete lining
is recommendable.
Work adit shall be provided to ensure the construction
schedule against the possible delay due to geological risks
and other reasons.
Excavation slopes of the cut and cover section and of the

Headrace Channel are too steep. For the former, 1 to 0.5 or
more gentle slope is recommendable, even it is temporary.
For the latter, 1 to 1.0 more gentle slope is recommendable
if no protective measure.
Design of crossing structures such as pipe culvert and
bridge should be made. Especially, size of pipe culvert
should be decided carefully taking flood water into
consideration.
Protective measure such as shot-crete or sodding against
erosion on the excavated slope is required.
Access Road shall be extended to gate and raking operation
yard.
Guide wall of the spillway at the beginning shall be higher.
Application criteria of standard section of Type -2, 3, 4 and
5 are not clear. Type-3 should be applied at the end portion
only.
A surge tank shall be provided to ensure stability of the
penstock and to prevent excessive pressure rise of the
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Slope protection
Powerhouse & Swichyard

Location of draft gate

Top elevation of tailrace wall and
erection bay access
Enlargement of powerhouse
Enlargement of switchyard in case of

double pi T/L
Addition of switchgear equip. in case
of double pi T/L
Transmission Line
Double Pi T/L
penstock.
Geology around penstock site is composed on top soil and
weathered tuff and erodible by water. All excavated surface
shall be protected by wet rubble
masonry/shotcrete/sodding.
Probable flood of 100-year shall be revised to 1,000 m3/s,
then the elevation of the powerhouse yard shall be set to
ensure safety against this flood.
Location of the draft gate can be shifted to upstream to
minimize the powerhouse structure.
Elevation of the erection bay of P/H and the end of Access
Road are set at EL. 351.75. On the other hand, the upstream
end of the tailrace wall is set at EL. 355.00. Flood water
will flow into the Powerhouse through the erection bay. A
guide wall along the Access Road is required.
There seems no sufficient space for removal of the rotor
and shaft assembly from the generator. In case horizontalshaft turbine is used for this project, the space between the
units shall be widened by at least 2 m and the space
between Unit 3 and the powerhouse side wall by at least 2
m. Size of the control room and the switchgear room seems
not enough.
If double-pi connection is employed, two more
transmission line bays become necessary.
If double-pi connection is employed, two more
transmission line bays become necessary.
It is conceived that the selected option in the Feasibility
Study to provide the new Kampung Pajak substation and
the Project is connected to there is technically the best
solution. Single-pi connection has problem in reliability of
transmission, and thus not recommendable. Meanwhile
Double-pi connection requires necessity of 4 circuits, and
the price of transmission line becomes high.
Source: NK
6. CONSTRUCTION PLAN AND SCHEDULE

The critical path of the construction schedule runs through the early site establishment of access road
to the tunnel portals, the timely commencement of tunnel excavation followed by lining and finishing
and connection to the cut & cover section, water filing and commissioning.
The schedule of tunnel works without additional work adit will be hardly kept and possibly delayed
by 2-3 months due to geological risks and other reasons. Meanwhile, an additional work adit can be
constructed easily and does not require high cost from the topography. If the work adit is prepared,
delay by geological risk and other reasons can be mitigated.
7. COST ESTIMATE
Impacts to the direct cost due to review result of design in compliance with NKs recommendations
are roughly estimated. Total project cost to which the above cost impacts are incorporated is as below.
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SummaryofProjectCost
Item
Amount
(mil. US$)
Direct Cost
Civil Works
Hydro-mechanical Works (incl. Penstock)
Electro-mechanical Works
Transmission Line
Total Direct Cost
Indirect Cost
Client Administration
Engineering
Land Acquisition and EIA Cost
Technical Management Services
Insurance
Taxes (VAT on all local items)
Total Indirect Cost
Total Project Cost (without IDC)
Total Project Cost (with IDC)
46.53
10.46
25.95
15.53
98.47
4.92
4.92
4.26
2.84
4.92
11.17
33.03
131.50
154.67
Source: NK based on Feasibility Study
8. PROJECT FEASIBILITY
The possible cost increase may affect the project profitability; the return on equity (ROE) may go
down by 3% from the FS Base Case. If one considers the possible energy decrease, ROE further may
go down by 2 %. As a whole, there is a concern that ROE might nose down to the level the investors
can hardly accept, as demonstrated below.
Analysis Cases
Cost w/o IDC
Energy
Tariff
ROE
FS Base Case
110.0 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
14.4%*
Cost Up
131.5 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
11.2%
Cost Up & Energy Less
131.5 USDm
249.0 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
9.4%
FS has computed ROE (return on equity) to be 14.92% for the base case with USc7.5/kWh tariff, while the
Review Work does 14.4% under the same assumptions.
In order to compensate such possible profitability decrease, the investors should examine higher tariff
for energy sales, assuming 15.0% of the required ROE:
Analysis Cases
Cost w/o IDC
Energy
Tariff
ROE
Cost Up
131.5 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc9.06/kWh
15.0%
131.5 USDm
249.0 GWh
USc10.03/kWh
15.0%
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9. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

As a result of review on the existing studies of the Project, this Report concludes that;
-
It is recommended that the Moderate Scenario shall be applied instead. Based on this, the
salable annual mean energy of the Project will be 249.0 GWh, which is of about 10% decrease
compared to 275.5 GWh in the Feasibility Study.
The project cost without IDC will be 131.5 US$m which is about 20% increase compared to
110.0 US$m in the Feasibility Study.
The possible energy decrease and cost increase above may cause profitability decrease. To
compensate this, higher tariff should be examined.
This Report recommends the following actions to be conducted.

-
The observed daily flow records at the Pulao Dogom station from 2000 to date shall be analyzed
for prediction of monthly energy generation through in-depth review and scrutiny of the flow
data.
Detailed survey shall be conducted to confirm possibility of landslide f at the de-sander site and
the powerhouse site.
Additional topographic survey and geological investigation shall be conducted along the newly
proposed penstock alignment and at the surge tank area.
Comparative study shall be conducted to confirm the optimal selection of type and number of
the units of turbine-generator.
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CONSULTING SERVICES
UP TO
PPA CONCLUSION
FOR
HASANG HYDROPOWER PLANT PROJECT
REVIEW REPORT ON EXISTING STUDIES

Table of Contents
Page
LOCATION MAP
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................
General..................................................................................................................
Background...........................................................................................................
Objectives of Task-1 in Services ..........................................................................
Scope of Task-1 in Services ..................................................................................
1
1
3
3
HYDROLOGY ...................................................................................................
General.................................................................................................................. 5
Design Flood Discharges ...................................................................................... 5
Inflow.................................................................................................................... 10
GEOLOGY..........................................................................................................
3.1 Geologic Components and their General Features ...............................................
3.2 Headworks ............................................................................................................
3.3 Desander ...............................................................................................................
3.4 Inlet of Headrace Tunnel ......................................................................................
3.5 Tunnel Section of Waterway .................................................................................
3.6 Outlet of Headrace Tunnel and Cut & Cover Section of Waterway .....................
3.7 Head Pond.............................................................................................................
3.8 Penstock ................................................................................................................
3.9 Powerhouse...........................................................................................................
3.10 Suggestions and Recommendations .....................................................................
17
17
20
24
27
28
34
35
35
37
40
POWER GENERATION ...................................................................................

General .................................................................................................................
Project Layout ......................................................................................................
Power Generation .................................................................................................
41
41
41
45
4.1
4.2
4.3
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5
5.1
5.2
DESIGN ISSUES: ACCESS ROAD ................................................................ 47

General.................................................................................................................. 47
Access Road ......................................................................................................... 47
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
DESIGN ISSUES: CIVIL WORKS .................................................................

General..................................................................................................................
Intake Weir and Power Intake...............................................................................
Intake Channel and De-sander ..............................................................................
Headrace Tunnel ...................................................................................................
Headrace Channel .................................................................................................
Head Pond and Spillway.......................................................................................
Penstock ................................................................................................................
Powerhouse and Switchyard .................................................................................
48
48
48
53
55
56
57
60
60
7.1
7.2
7.3
DESIGN ISSUES: HYDRO-MECHANICAL WORKS ................................

General..................................................................................................................
Penstock ................................................................................................................
Hydro-mechanical Equipment ..............................................................................
62
62
62
62
8.1
8.2
8.3
DESIGN ISSUES: ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS ............................

General..................................................................................................................
Mechanical Equipment .........................................................................................
Electrical Equipment ............................................................................................
64
64
64
64
9.1
9.2
DESIGN ISSUES: TRANSMISSION LINE ................................................... 66

General.................................................................................................................. 66
Transmission Line ................................................................................................ 66
10
10.1
10.2
10.3
CONSTRUCTION PLAN AND SCHEDULE .................................................

General..................................................................................................................
Construction Plan .................................................................................................
Construction Schedule ..........................................................................................
67
67
67
70
11
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
COST ESTIMATE .............................................................................................

General..................................................................................................................
Bill of Quantities ..................................................................................................
Unit Prices ............................................................................................................
Impact to Cost Estimate due to Design Review ...................................................
73
73
73
74
76
12
PROJECT FEASIBILITY ................................................................................ 78
12.1 Financial Analysis ................................................................................................ 78
12.2 Possible Effects from Cost and Energy Change ................................................... 79
13
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ............................................... 80
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ANNEX
COMMENTS ON TECHNICAL PROPOSAL BY POSCO ENGINEERING
List of Tables
Table 1.2.1
Table 1.2.2
Table 1.2.3
Table 1.4.1
Table 1.4.2
Table 2.2.1
Table 2.2.2
Table 2.2.3
Table 2.3.1
Table 2.3.2
Table 2.3.3
Table 3.5.1
Table 3.6.1
Table 4.1.1
Table 4.2.1
Table 4.3.1
Table 5.1.1
Table 6.1.1
Table 11.1.1
Table 11.3.1
Table 11.4.1
Table 11.4.2
Table 12.2.1
Chronicle ................................................................................................... 1
Most Recent Studies .................................................................................. 2
Salient Features ......................................................................................... 2
Scope of Task-1 in Services ....................................................................... 3
Documents for Review .............................................................................. 4
Estimated Probable Flood Discharge at Pulao Dogom Station ................. 6
Estimated Probable Flood Discharges at Hasang Weir Site (F/S) ............. 6
Estimated Probable Flood Discharges at Hasang Weir Site (Pre-F/S) ...... 7
Comparison of Runoff Depth of Annual Mean Discharges
at Hasang Weir Site ................................................................................. 11
Plausible Range of Runoff Estimated from Water Balance ..................... 12
Comparison of Runoff Coefficient at Hasang Weir Site ......................... 14
Geologic Description of Core Sample of Drilling PB-T1 ....................... 31
Summary of Laboratory Tests at Cut & Cover Site ................................. 34
Two Scenarios for Energy Simulation ..................................................... 41
Alternatives for Penstock Stability .......................................................... 43
Mean Annual Energy ............................................................................... 46
Main Access Roads to be Upgraded and/or Newly Built ........................ 47
Main Civil Structures of the Project ........................................................ 48
Summary of Project Cost in Feasibility Study ........................................ 73
Main Unit Rates for Civil Works in Feasibility Study ............................ 74
Impact to Cost Estimate due to Design Review ...................................... 76
Summary of Project Cost......................................................................... 77
Updated Financial Stream with Higher Tariff ......................................... 79
List of Figures
Figure 1.2.1
Figure 2.2.1
Figure 2.2.2
Figure 2.2.3
Figure 2.2.4
Figure 2.3.1
Figure 2.3.2
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Layout Alternatives in Previous Studies.................................................... 2

100-year Floods in Sumatra ...................................................................... 7
Chart of Creagers Number ....................................................................... 8
20-year Floods in Sumatra......................................................................... 9
2-year Floods in Sumatra........................................................................... 9
Plausible Range of Mean Annual Runoff Depth at Hasang Weir Site..... 13
Isohyetal Map of Mean Annual Rainfall in Sumatra Island .................... 13
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Figure 2.3.3
Figure 2.3.4
Figure 3.1.1
Figure 3.1.2
Figure 3.1.3
Figure 3.1.4
Figure 3.2.1
Figure 3.2.2
Figure 3.2.3
Figure 3.2.4
Figure 3.2.5
Figure 3.2.6
Figure 3.3.1
Figure 3.4.1
Figure 3.5.1
Figure 3.5.2
Figure 3.5.3
Figure 3.5.4
Figure 3.5.5
Figure 3.5.6
Figure 3.8.1
Figure 3.9.1
Figure 4.2.1
Figure 4.2.2
Figure 6.2.1
Figure 6.2.2
Figure 6.2.3
Figure 6.2.4
Figure 6.2.5
Figure 6.3.1
Figure 6.3.2
Figure 6.4.1
Figure 6.5.1
Figure 6.5.2
Figure 6.6.1
Figure 6.6.2
Figure 6.6.3
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Relationship between Runoff Coefficient and Mean Annual Basin

Rainfall in Various River Basins in Sumatra Island ................................ 14
Relationship between Runoff Coefficient and Mean Annual Runoff
in Various River Basins in Sumatra Island .............................................. 15
Project Area on Geological Map ............................................................. 17
Schematic Geologic Section .................................................................... 18
Estimated Distribution of Aeolian Deposit and Pyroclassic Flow .......... 19
Estimated Distribution of Tapanuli Group .............................................. 19
Location of Recent Sediments and Change of Water Course .................. 20
Location of Resent Sediments and Change of Water Course .................. 21
Locations of Drill Holes and Test Pits in Headworks Site ...................... 22
Geological Section of Headworks Site .................................................... 22
Section of Weir and Assumed Depth of Foundation Rocks .................... 23
Possible Leakage Path on Permeability Tests .......................................... 24
Locations of Drill Holes and Test Pits in Desander Site ......................... 25
Different Depth to Assumed Rock Line among Drawings at Inlet Site .. 27
Plan of Headrace Tunnel ......................................................................... 28
Section of Headrace Tunnel..................................................................... 28
Geological Section of Headrace Tunnel .................................................. 30
Catchment Area of Headrace Tunnel ....................................................... 32
Foreseeable Groundwater Condition ....................................................... 33
Possible Locations of Work Adits and Access Roads .............................. 33
Estimated Distribution of Tapanuli Group .............................................. 36
Possible Landslide Features just upstream of Powerhouse Site .............. 39
Layout of Alt. 1-1 .................................................................................... 44
Layout of Alt. 1-2 .................................................................................... 44
Proposed Layout ...................................................................................... 49
Debris Barrier Structure........................................................................... 50
Contraction Joint of Overflow Weir ........................................................ 52
Curtain Grout Line and Study of Piping.................................................. 53
Curtain Grout Line .................................................................................. 53
Location of Geological Investigation ...................................................... 54
Comments on De-sander ......................................................................... 55
Concrete Lining of Headrace Tunnel ...................................................... 56
Excavation Slope and Embankment ........................................................ 57
Cross Drain and Bridge ........................................................................... 57
Head Pond Gate Operation Yard ............................................................. 58
Comments on Head Pond ........................................................................ 59
Embankment and Cross Drain of Spillway ............................................. 59
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Figure 6.6.4
Figure 6.8.1
Figure 6.8.2
Figure 10.1.1
Figure 10.2.1
Figure 10.2.2
Figure 10.2.3
Figure 10.3.1
Figure 10.3.2
Figure 10.3.3
Typical Section of Spillway ..................................................................... 59

Powerhouse layout................................................................................... 61
Coffering of Powerhouse ......................................................................... 61
Construction Master Schedule in Feasibility Study ................................ 67
Site Installation Works ............................................................................. 68
Coffering of Intake Weir .......................................................................... 69
Access to Headrace Tunnel...................................................................... 69
Work Adit ................................................................................................ 71
Construction Schedule of Headrace Tunnel without Work Adit ............. 71
Construction Schedule o Headrace Tunnel with Work Adit .................... 72
List of Photos
Photo 3.2.1
Photo 3.2.2
Photo 3.2.3
Photo 3.3.1
Photo 3.5.1
Photo 3.5.2
Photo 3.5.3
Photo 3.5.4
Photo 3.8.1
Photo 3.8.2
Photo 3.9.1
Photo 6.2.1
Photo 6.2.2
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Upstream View of Headworks Site ......................................................... 21

Downstream View of Headworks Site..................................................... 21
Outcrop on Thin Ridge of Left Abutment ............................................... 23
Sediment Trap Facility Site ..................................................................... 26
Condition of Water course on Lowest Portion on Headrace Tunnel ....... 29
Upper Layer of Tuff ............................................................................. 29
Ignimbrite ................................................................................................ 30
Lower Layer of Tuff............................................................................. 30
Gully Erosion after Excavation of Access Road to Powerhouse ............. 37
Gully Erosion after Excavation of Access Road to Powerhouse ............. 37
Outcrops of Moderately Hard Ignimbrite at Powerhouse Site ................ 38
Situation at Intake Weir and Power Intake .............................................. 49
Construction Works in Upstream............................................................. 50
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1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
General
This Report has been prepared in accordance with the Agreement for Consulting Services up to PPA
Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project (hereinafter referred to as Project) between PT.
Binsar Natorang Energi (hereinafter referred to as BNE) and Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (hereinafter
referred to as NK) signed on December 27, 2012.
The Report presents background and objective of the Services, and the review results of the existing
studies for the Project including the issues such as general hydrology and geology, hydropower
planning and design/specifications, cost estimation, facility renewal planning, operation planning,
saleable power, construction time schedule and contractual systems.
1.2
Background
BNE was established by PT. Titan Multi Power and LG International Corp. as the Special Purpose
Company for an Independent Power Producer of the Project. The Project is a run-of-river hydropower
along the left bank of the Kualu river, running south-east of the Lake Toba down to the Malakka Strait.
Location map of the Project is attached in the opening page of this Report.
Promotion of the Project by BNE started in 2010 and following progress has been so far made.
Table1.2.1Chronilcle
Event
Month
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval was obtained from Toba

Samosir Regency.
Concession Right was obtained from Toba Samoir Regency.
Pre-feasibility Study was completed.
Forestry License is obtained from North Sumatra Province.
Enlisted in PLN RUPTL 2012-2021.
Enlisted in PLN Fast Track Program Phase-2.
CDM sub-project was registered by UNFCC.
Direct Appointment Approval was obtained from Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources.
Feasibility Study was completed.
Direct Appointment Approval was obtained from PLN.
MOU for Consulting Services was concluded with NK.
IPP Prequalification was passed by PLN.
Agreement for Consulting Services was concluded with NK
Year
March
2010
July
April
September
2011
December
March
April
May
September
October
December
2012
Source: Agreement for Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for the Project
The Project was first identified in the hydropower potential studies in Indonesia by NK in 1983 and
1999. After that, several alternative studies were conducted. The most recent studies are the
Feasibility Study by Poyry Energy Ltd. in 2012 the Pre-Feasibility Study by PT. Wahana Adya in
2011.
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Table1.2.2MostRecentStudies
Study
Outline
Feasibility Study
in 2012
by Poyry Energy Ltd.
Pre-Feasibility Study
in 2011
by PT. Wahana Adya
The feasibility study was prepared on the basis of the alternative L2-1
which was selected in the pre-feasibility study.
7 alternative layouts were examined, and as the result the alternative L2-1
(free surface tunnel + power channel + shorter penstock + surface type
powerhouse) was selected as the most promising layout.
Source: Feasibility Study
The Project was optimized in the Feasibility Study as a straightforward run-of-river type development
of 42.45MW installed capacity. The Feasibility Study reassessed the seven (7) alternatives which had
been studied in the Pre-Feasibility Study, then concluded that the alternative L2-1 was the most
attractive for development, of which layout is seen in the following figure.
Figure1.2.1LayoutAlternativesinPreviousStudies
Salient features of the Project proposed in the Feasibility Study are summarized in the following table.
Table1.2.3SalientFeatures
Description
Project Name
Project Scheme
Location
Type
Catchment Area
Mean Annual Flow
Maximum Plant Discharge
Net Head
Installed Capacity
Annual Energy Output
Project Cost
Salient Features
Hasang Hydro Power Plant (HPP) Project
IPP (Independent Power Producer to PLN)
Aek Kualu-River Area, Nassau subdistrict, Toba Samosir Regency, North
Sumatera, Republic of Indonesia
Run-of-River
501 km2
26.7 m3/s
27.5 m3/s
189.27 m
3 x 14.150MW = 42.450 MW
275.53 GWh
US$ 129.4 mil.
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The Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for the Project of which the Agreement was
concluded between BNE and NK on December 27, 2012 (hereinafter referred to as Services) consist
of the following tasks:
-
Task-1:
Task-2:
Task-3:
Task-4:
Task-5:
Task-6:
1.3
Review of the Existing Studies

Review of and Advice on the Request for Proposal (RfP) from PLN
Assistance in IPP Proposal Preparation in Response to RfP
Assistance in Response to Technical Clarifications from PLN
Advice on Tariff Negotiations
Advice on PPA Negotiations in Technical Aspects (excluding the legal advice in PPA
negotiation)
Objectives of Task-1 in Services
The objectives of Task-1 in the Services are;

-
to review the existing studies, relevant data and information thereon in order to have clear and
objective understanding of the development plan of the Project, and
to recommend the tariff components A, B, C, D and E based on the main financial indicators
analyzed.
1.4
Scope of Task-1 in Services
The scope of Task-1 in the Services includes the followings.

Table1.4.1ScopeofTask1inServices
Scope
(1) Review the exiting
studies
(a) General hydrology and
geology
(b) Hydropower planning and

design/specifications
thereof
(c) Cost estimation in
construction and nonconstruction
(d) Facility renewal planning
and cost thereof
(e) Operation planning and
costs thereof
(f) Generation cost
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Description
River conditions might not meet the business requirements, e.g.,

droughts or floods. Geological conditions might demand extra costs to
develop the project facilities. The Consultant will appraise the natural
conditions and perceive the grade of the potential risks.
Facility layouts and specifications are directly linked to the financial
viability of the project. The Consultant will examine if the project has
been optimized in terms of hydropower generation.
The Consultant will verify that the capital expenditures are pertinently
estimated from the proper price quotations.
Hydro turbines and generators need renewal in the future. The
Consultant will verify that the renewal cost as part of the capital
expenditures is pertinently estimated.
The Consultant will verify that the operating expenditures are
pertinently estimated.
The Consultant will carefully estimate the unit generation cost by
incorporating effects of the scheduled outage for the maintenance
activities and the forced outage due to droughts in dry seasons.
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(g) Core construction time

schedule
Optimistic estimation of the construction years may jeopardize the

overall investment plan; delay in construction would increase the
capital expenditures and reduce the project revenue. The Consultant
will examine if the construction time schedule is pertinently built.
The capital expenditures may enormously differ depending on the risks
allocated to the contractor. The Consultant will examine if the project
risks are nicely distributed/assigned.
To be discussed in Task-3
(h) Contractural systems,

lotting and contractor
candidates
(2) Recommend the tariff
components
Source: Agreement for the Services
The existing studies which were provided by BNE to NK for the review in Task-1 are the Feasibility
Study Report in 2012 and the Pre-Feasibility Study Report in 2011 for the Project. The Structures of
the respective reports provided are as seen in the following table.
Table1.4.2DocumentsforReview
Title
Feasibility Study Report
in 2012
by Poyry Energy Ltd.
Pre-Feasibility Study Report
in 2011
by PT. Wahana Adya
Pre-F/S Report for 150kV T/L
in 2012
by Wiratman & Associates
Report Structure
Vol. 1 Executive Summary
Vol. 2 Main Report
Vol. 3 Drawings
Vol. 4 ESIA
Vol. 5 Annex
Vol. 2 Main Report
Vol. 3 Drawings
Vol. 1 Executive Summary
Vol. 2 Main Report
Vol. 3 Attachment
Vol. 4 Drawings
Source: BNE
NK conducted the desktop review on the documents above, and performed a site reconnaissance
survey on 17th and 18th January 2013 at the Project site to confirm the actual conditions especially of
geology. NK reported the interim results of their review to BNE in the progress meetings held in
biweekly basis then compiled those comments in the relevant chapters in this Report.
Besides the above, NK received form BNE the electronic files of Technical Proposal on the Project
prepared by LG International and POSCO Engineering. NKs Comments on this document is
presented in Annex of this Report.
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2.
2.1
HYDROLOGY
General
Hydrological study in the Feasibility Study Report (in Chapter 6 Meteorology, Hydrology and
Sedimentation, Volume 2 Main Report) has been well carried out in detail despite very limited
availability of long-term hydrological data in the Kualu River basin where the Hasang HPP Project is
located. Major outcomes of hydrological study which might affect the project cost and energy
generation were carefully reviewed based on experiences of various hydrological analyses in past
hydropower and water resources development projects in Indonesia. Highlighted are as follows:
-
2.2
Estimation of design flood discharges at the Hasang weir site

Estimation of Inflow at the Hasang weir site
Design Flood Discharges
2.2.1 Probable 100-year Flood Discharge

Feasibility Study
The design flood discharges (probable flood discharges) at the the Hasang weir site was estimated
based on flood frequency analysis using the observed flow records at the Pulao Dogom water level
gauging station. The Pulao Dogom station is located approximately 100 km downstream from the
weir site. The catchment areas are 1,141 km2 at the Pulao Dogom station and 501 km2 at the weir site.
The flow records at the Pulao Dogom station are available for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Because
staff gauge reading was conducted three times per day, continuous hourly flow records including
flood peaks are not available for flood frequency analysis for estimating probable flood discharges.
Due to this, continuous hourly flow series were estimated applying interpolation technique to the
observed flow data and then used for flood frequency analysis in the Feasibility Study in 2012.
Flood frequency analysis is usually carried out based on the annual maximum flood peak discharges.
In the Feasibility Study, however, partial series was applied instead of selecting annual maximum
flood peak discharge series due to the consideration that the observation period is only 11 years and
seems rather short for frequency analysis. Totally the partial series of 47 flood peaks exceeding 350
m3/sec were selected. It is however acceptable from hydrological view point that the probable
flood discharges with larger recurrence interval such as 100-year and 200-year flood discharges
estimated from the partial series tend to become smaller than those from the annual maximum
series. This is readily understandable from the stochastic viewpoint that the recorded maximum flood
peak of 650 m3/sec at the Pulao Dogom station (which is interpolated from plotted maximum flood
peaks in Figure 6-25 in the Feasibility Study Report) is assumed in the recorded maximum flood peak
in the period of 47 years for frequency analysis, although this peak was the recorded maximum in the
period of 11 years.
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In the Feasibility Study Report, the estimated probable flood peaks at the Pulao Dogom station is
given as follows (see Table 6-7 in the Feasibility Study Report):
Table2.2.1EstimatedProbableFloodDischargesatPulaoDogomStation
Return Interval
(year)
10
25
30
50
100
200
Probable Flood Discharge

(m3/sec)
674
728
739
769
810
851
Finally probable flood discharges at the Hasang weir site are estimated using the well-known
Creagers equation for flood regionalization as listed below (see Table 6-8 in the Feasibility Study
Report).
Table2.2.2EstimatedProbableFloodDischargesatHasangWeirSite(F/S)
Return Interval
(year)
10
25
30
50
100
200

(m3/sec)
449
484
492
512
539
566
Creagers Coefficient
11.59
12.52
12.71
13.22
13.93
14.63
As shown above, the 100-year flood at the weir site which was used as the design flood discharge for
hydraulic design of civil structures is estimated to be 539 m3/sec.
Figure below shows the relationship between 100-year flood discharges in Sumatra Island applied in
various hydropower development projects and catchment areas thereof. Besides, the Creagers curves
with coefficients of 20 and 30 as well as the 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site are also
plotted for reference.
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Source: Potted Floods from Hydro Inventory Study, July 1997, PT.PLN
Figure2.2.1100yearFloodsinSumatra
The Creagers curve is commonly applied to assist in quick estimation of probable flood peak
discharges and evaluation of estimated probable flood discharges through comparison of the same
probable flood discharges applied in other schemes. Along this line, in the Hydro Inventory Study in
1997 recommended to apply Creagers coefficient of 30 for Sumatera Island for preliminary study of
hydropower development schemes from the conservative aspect.
As is apparent from the figure above, the 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site seems
slightly small compare to other 100-year flood discharges applied in various hydropower schemes.
The Creagers coefficient at the Hasang weir site is as small as 13.93 as shown in the table above.
It is recommended that the Creagers coefficient at the Hasang weir site shall be 20 at minimum. By
applying the coefficient of 20, the 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site shall be around
1,000 m3/sec at minimum.
Pre-Feasibility Study
After review of the Feasibility Study Report, the Pre-Feasibility Study Report becomes available. A
different approach from the Feasibility Study was made for estimation of probable flood discharges.
Probable flood discharges were estimated by applying the Nakayasu unit hydrograph method by use
of probable basin rainfalls as summarized below.
Table2.2.3EstimatedProbableFloodDischargesatHasangWeirSite(PreF/S)
Return Interval
(year)
5
10
25
50
100
200

(m3/sec)
913.97
1,025.79
1,167.07
1,271.88
1,375.92
1,479.58
Source: Pre-Feasibility Study
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As shown above, the 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site was proposed to be 1,372.92
m3/sec in the Pre-Feasibility Study Report. Besides, the estimated 100-year flood discharge was
evaluated by Creagers coefficient as shown below. It is noted that plotted probable flood discharges
are of specific discharges expressed by the unit of m3/sec/km2.
Source: Pre-Feasibility Study
Figure2.2.2ChartofCreagersNumber
The estimated 100-year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site is plotted close to on the Creagers
curve with coefficient of 30. It was concluded in the Pre-Feasibility Study that the estimated 100-year
flood discharge is applicable to feasibility design.
Conclusion
From the review result above, it is concluded that the probable 100-year flood discharge at the weir
site in the Feasibility Study (=539 m3/sec) is underestimated. It is recommended that the Creagers
coefficient at the Hasang weir site shall be 20 at minimum. By applying the coefficient of 20, the 100year flood discharge at the Hasang weir site shall be around 1,000 m3/sec at minimum.

The construction of weir structure is proposed to implement in two phases as follows (see Sub-section
12.3.1.3 in the Feasibility Study Report):
-
Phase 1: Construction of the structures at the left bank

Phase 2: Completion of the weir structure
In the Feasibility Study, the construction pits for Phase 1 is proposed to be safe against a 25-year
flood. Thus both upstream and downstream cofferdams will be constructed (see Sub-section 12.3.4).
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The designed 25-year flood discharge of 484 m3/sec at the weir site s also evaluated in terms of the
Creagers curve. Figure below is the plots of design 20-year flood discharges in various hydropower
schemes. It is assumed the no significant difference is expected between 20-year flood discharges and
25-year flood discharge at Hasang weir site, since no 25-year flood discharges are available.
As seen in the figure, it appears that the design 25-year flood discharge is plotted on the Creagers
curve with coefficient of 10, which is judged as a little underestimated for 20-year floods in Sumatra
Island.
Source: Potted Floods from Hydro Inventory Study, July 1997, PT.PLN

As described in the above, the Feasibility Study assumed a 25-year flood as the design flood for the
river diversion of the intake weir. However, this is too conservative for construction of the intake
weir of concrete type. For this type of construction, 2-to 5-year floods are considered to be sufficient.
Return Period = 2 year
Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s)
10,000
1,000
2
C=10
100
Masagn-2 2
10
10
100
1,000
10,000
Catchment Area (km2)
100,000
Source:
Potted Floods from Hydro Inventory Study, July 1997, PT.PLN
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Figure above is the plots of design 2-year flood discharges in various hydropower schemes. As seen
C=10 is the upper envelope curve of 2-year floods in Sumatra Island.
The above indicates that the designed flood discharge for the river diversion of 484 m3/sec at the weir
site proposed in the Feasibility Study, of which Creagers coefficient is about 10, is still applicable,
but should be regarded as the probable 2- to 5-year flood discharge, not of 25-year.
2.3
Inflow
2.3.1 Inflow Duration Curves at Hasang Weir Site

Inflow data at the Hasang weir site is available only in the form of flow duration curve. No daily
inflow data is given in the Feasibility Study Report. In the Feasibility Study Report, the inflow at the
Hasang weir site was defined by the duration curve. This flow duration curve is used for energy
generation simulations together with optimization of development scheme.
Flow duration curve is essentially required to determine an optimum development scale for run-ofriver type scheme. Flow duration curve at the Hasang weir site is developed by different two
approaches. The following duration curves have been derived in the Feasibility Study Report (see
Section 6.5):
-
Moderate scenario: The duration curve at the weir site is estimated based on the duration curve
derived from the Pulao Dogom station in the period of 2000-2006 (2002 and 2005 excluded) to
down-scaled to match the annual mean discharge of 25 m3/sec, which is derived from water
balance analysis results ranging from 17 m3/sec to 30 m3/sec as a realistic value.
Optimistic scenario: The duration curve deprived from the observed river discharges from
December 2010 to November 2011 at the Hasang weir site is assumed to be representative
for long-term runoff conditions. Annual mean discharge is computed to be 28.5 m3/sec. It is
said that the year 2011 was a hydrological wet year, although annual rainfall data was not
collected during the feasibility study.
Considering hydrological conditions under both scenarios, an additional scenario was proposed as the
Average of both scenarios (named Average scenario). This scenario is to compute flow duration curve
by means of an arithmetical average of both flow duration curves. The computed annual mean
discharge in the Average scenario is 26.7 m3/sec. The average flow duration curve was used for
purpose of optimization and forms the basis for the base case of the economic and financial
analyses. The moderate duration curve was used as a conservative scenario for the sensitivity analysis
(see Sub-section 10.2.1 in the Feasibility Study Report).
The annual runoff depth is computed by dividing the accumulated annual runoff volume by the
drainage area. The annual runoff depth is computed by the following equation:
Rd (mm) = Md (m3/sec) x 60 (sec) x 60 (min) x 24 (hour) x 365 (day) / (Ca (km2) x 103)
where,
Rd: Annual runoff depth
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Md: Annual mean discharge

Ca: Catchment area of Hasang weir site (= 501 km2)
The runoff depth three scenarios are compared as summarized below.
Table2.3.1ComparisonofRunoffDepthofAnnualMeanDischargesatHasangWeirSite
Moderate Scenario
25 m3/sec
1,574 mm
Optimistic Scenario
28.5 m3/sec
1,794 mm
Average Scenario
26.7 m3/sec
1,681 mm
As indicated above, the flow duration curve under the Optimistic scenario is only deprived from the
observed flow data at the Hasang weir site from December 2010 to November 2011. Monthly rainfall
records in 2010 and 2011 at both Bor-Bor and Silaen stations were collected. No records are available
at the remaining two stations of Bukit Likma and Maranti (see Sub-section 6.4.1). Annual basin
rainfall from December 2010 to November 2011is estimated by arithmetical mean of two stations of
Bor-Bor (2,253 mm) and Silaen (1,960 mm). The estimated annual basin rainfall is 2,107 mm.
Annual rainfall loss and runoff coefficient are computed to be 313 mm (= 2,107 1,794) and
0.85 (= 1,794 / 2,107). From the hydrological viewpoints, it can be said that the estimated annual
rainfall loss is apparently very small and the runoff coefficient is very large, comparing to
empirical ranges of such values reflected by hydro-meteorological characteristics in Indonesia.
As for both the Moderate and Average scenarios, annual basin mean rainfall at the Hasang weir
site is unknown because of difficulty for estimation thereof.
Under such being the case, annual water balance analysis was carried out in the feasibility study in
order to estimate plausible range of mean annual runoff depth at the Hasang weir site as described
below. This approach is reasonable from the viewpoints of hydrological analysis.
2.3.2 Water Balance Analysis

As described in Sub-section 6.4.3 in the Feasibility Study Report, simple annual water balance
formula was introduced as follows:
R = P AET
where,
R: Mean annual runoff depth at weir site (mm)
P: Mean annual basin rainfall at weir site (mm)
AET: Mean annual rainfall loss (basin actual evapotranspiration) (mm)
As indicated above, the difference between the mean annual rainfall and mean annual runoff depth is
so-called an evapotranspiration loss or annual rainfall loss.
As mentioned in Sub-section 6.4.3.1, the mean annual basin rainfall at the weir site was estimated by
GIS analysis based on the data collected for 6 gauging stations in the Hasang catchment and its
vicinity. The estimated mean annual basin rainfall was 2,150 mm. In addition the mean annual basin
rainfall with vertical precipitation gradient was estimated to be 2,130 mm. Detailed methodology for
both estimations is not mentioned in the Feasibility Study Report.
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Furthermore, the estimated mean annual basin rainfall with vertical precipitation gradient was
increased by 1.25 applying as the gauge correction factor considering that most rainfall gauges are
under-catching due to the windfield close to the measurement device. The upper range of mean
annual basin rainfall was thus estimated to be 2,663 mm (= 2,130 x 1.25), although the rainfall
amount of 2,130 mm was assumed to be the lower range.
As for AET in the above, AET was assumed to be a linear function of potential evapotranspiration
PET as shown below. The factor f varies in the order of 0.7 to 0.9.
AET = f x PET
As described in Sub-section 6.4.3.2 in the Feasibility Study Report, PET was estimated to be 1,162
mm. Therefore the range of AET was estimated from 813 mm (= 1,162 x 0.7) to 1,046 mm (= 1,162 x
0.9).
The results of water balance analysis were summarized in Table 6-6 in the Feasibility Study Report as
quoted below.
Table2.3.2PlausibleRangeofRunoffEstimatedfromWaterBalance
Based on the above, plausible ranges of the mean annual runoff depth as well as mean annual basin
rainfall at the Hasang weir site are illustrated below.
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Source: based on Feasibility Study
Figure2.3.1PlausibleRangeofMeanAnnualRunoffDepthatHasangWeirSite
As indicated above, the feasibility study concluded that the mean annual basin mean rainfall varies
from 2,130 mm to 2,663 mm and the mean annual runoff depth is in the range between 1,084 mm and
1,850 mm. The average of mean annual basin rainfall is estimated to be 2,397 mm by means of
arithmetical mean of upper and lower mean basin rainfalls.
On the other hand, the figure focused below is an isohyetal map of mean annual rainfall in Sumatra
that is prepared by BMG. The catchment area of the Hasang weir site is illustrated on the map. As
seen in this map, the mean annual basin rainfall at the Hasang weir site is around 2,500 mm.
Source: BMG
Figure2.3.2IsohyetalMapofMeanAnnualRainfallinSumatraIsland
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The table below shows the comparison of runoff coefficients at the Hasang weir site for three
scenarios assuming that the mean annual basin rainfall at the site is 2,500 mm. Runoff coefficient
becomes 0.67 under the Average Scenario.
Table2.3.3ComparisonofRunoffCoefficientatHasangWeirSite
Scenario
Mean Runoff
Runoff Depth
Basin Runoff
Runoff Coefficient
Moderate Scenario
25 m3/sec
1,574 mm
2,500 mm
0.63
Optimistic Scenario
28.5 m3/sec
1,794 mm
2,500 mm
0.72
Average Scenario
26.7 m3/sec
1,681 mm
2,500 mm
0.67
Source: based on Feasibility Study
2.3.3 Comparison of Runoff Coefficients of Various River Basins in Sumatera Island

Runoff coefficients of 16 river basins in Sumatera are available in the report of Project for Master
Plan Study of Hydropower Development in Indonesia in 2011. Runoff coefficients are compared with
mean annual basin rainfalls and mean annual runoff depths respectively as illustrated in two figures
below.
Source: based on Project for Master Plan Study of Hydropower Development in Indonesia, 2011, JICA
Figure2.3.3RelationshipbetweenRunoffCoefficientandMeanAnnualBasinRainfallinVarious
RiverBasinsinSumatraIsland
As shown above, runoff coefficients become large exceeding 0.6 in the river basins where mean
annual rainfalls are larger than 3,000 mm. As for the river basins same as the Kualu River basin at the
Hasang HPP Project with mean annual basin rainfall from 2,130 mm to 2,660 mm, runoff coefficient
varies from 0.45 to 0.6.
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Source: based on Project for Master Plan Study of Hydropower Development in Indonesia, 2011, JICA
Figure2.3.4RelationshipbetweenRunoffCoefficientandMeanAnnualRunoffDepthinVarious
RiverBasinsinSumatraIsland
Together with the above, runoff coefficients in river basins in Sumatera are evaluated in terms of
mean annual runoff depth. As shown above, runoff coefficient is in the range from 0.45 to 0.6 for the
river basins same as the Kualu River basin at the Hasang HPP Project with mean annual runoff depth
from 1,084 mm to 1,850 mm.
Runoff coefficient at the Hasang HPP Project under the Average Scenario is as large as 0.67 assuming
that mean annual basin rainfall is 2,500 mm. From hydrological points of view, the Average Scenario
with mean annual runoff depth of 1,681 mm seems to be overestimated. This might cause risk of
overestimation of expected annual energy production. In this respect, it is recommended that the
Moderate Scenario having the mean annual runoff depth of 1,574 mm shall be applied to
estimation of annual energy production of the Project.
2.3.4 Necessity of Long-term Monthly Inflow

As mentioned in Section 2.3.1in the above, inflow data at the Hasang weir site is available only in the
form of duration curve. No long-term monthly mean inflow data were estimated in both Pre-feasibility
and Feasibility Studies. From the hydrological point of view, inflow duration curve at the Hasang weir
site fluctuates year by year according to the fluctuation of annual rainfalls in the upstream basin
thereof. As a result, the expected annual energy generation inevitably fluctuates year by year, highly
depending on the fluctuation of inflows. Thus there is a risk of reduction of energy output due to
occurrence of hydrological drought year. In this sense, it is very important to estimate likely variation
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of annual and monthly energy generation outputs in advance based on the long-term series of monthly
inflows.
Furthermore, in Section 8.3 Planned Energy Supply and Planned Discharge of Article 8 in the
Model PPA, it is mentioned that At least three months prior to the Scheduled Commercial Operation
Date, SELLER shall submit PLN its desired Planned Energy Supply and Planned Discharge for the
first Contract Year. This means SELLER should predict monthly energy generation for coming
three months. In this respect, the estimated likely variation of monthly energy production could be
very informative.
Considering the availability of flow data, the observed daily flow records at the Pulao Dogom station
from 2000 to date would be usable for prediction of monthly energy generation through in-depth
review and scrutiny of the flow data.
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3.
3.1
GEOLOGY
Geologic Components and their General Features
According to a published geological map Geological Map of Pematang Siantar Quadrangle, the
following geologic units are distributed on and around the project area.
-
Alluvium (Qh)
Toba Tuff Unit (Qvt)
Peutu Formation, Parapat Member (Tmppt)
Tapanuli Group Undifferentiated (Put)
Although different locations of the project areas are shown in existing reports (see Figure 3.1.1), the
bedrock of the project area seems to be Toba Tuff Unit (Qvt) and Tapanuli Group Undifferentiated
(Put).
Page 95, FS report,

Conceivable
project area
Switch Yard,
Page 7-5,
Volume 2,
Pre-FS
report,
Attachment 7-1,
Pre-FS report
Source: overwriting on page 7-4, Pre-FS report, March 2011
Figure3.1.1ProjectAreaonGeologicalMap
Most of project area is underlain by the Toba Tuff Unit (Qvt); Rhyodacic crystal-vitric ash flow
(pyroclastic flow) and air-fall (aeolian deposit) of late Pleistocene. The Unit is roughly divided into
Aeolian deposit VOLCANIC ASH and Pyroclastic flow IGNIMBRITE as shown in existing
reports (see Figure 3.1.2).
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Source: overwriting on page 7-10, a part of Fig.7.5, Pre-FS report
Figure3.1.2SchematicGeologicSection
The distribution of the Aeolian deposit seems to be limited in the area of the tunnel outlet and cutfill section of waterway. The aeolian deposit looks originally soft and further softened due to
weathering, and N values of most of shallow sections are N=10 or less.
The Pyroclastic flow seems to be distributed on the foundations of major structures, except for the
tunnel outlet and cut-fill section of waterway. The pyroclastic flow is originally slightly to
moderately welded and consolidated (20 MPa to 40 MPa) with sparsely joints, while softened at
shallow portions due to weathering (5 MPa to 20 MPa). Cooling joints generally develop in highly
welded tuff, but cooling joints in tuff is sparse (30 cm to 1 m interval) in the project area, since the
degree of welding is not so high. Highly to completely portion of the pyroclastic flow is soft, like
residual soil, and there is no distinct difference in its view and property from the weathered portions
of the aeolian deposit.
Although strategic relation is not clear, the Aeolian deposit is distributed on high elevation. The
distribution area of the Aeolian deposit and pyroclastic flow along the downstream section of the
headrace tunnel is estimated as shown in Figure 3.1.3.
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Aeolian deposit
Pyroclastic flow
Source: overwriting on a part of Drawing HS-003-002, FS report
Figure3.1.3EstimatedDistributionofAeolianDepositandPyroclasticFlow
Another geological unit of clay stone to silt stone, which seems to be Tapanuli Group
Undifferentiated (Put) of Paleozoic, is distributed on the foundation of the head pond. The clay
stone to silt stone was found at Drill hole W-1 as shown in Figure 3.1.4. The Tapanuli Group seems
to be distributed on steep mountains, surrounding the project area, as well as downstream areas where
conceivable quarry site is located. The rock is hard and assumed unconfined compression strength is
40 MPa in an intact portion, while the rock pieces show flaky nature.
Aeolian deposit of
Toba Tuff Unit
Tapanuli
Group
Pyroclastic flow of
Toba Tuff Unit
Figure3.1.4EstimatedDistributionofTapanuliGroup
The above-mentioned bedrock is covered with unconsolidated sediments; Alluvium (Qh). The
unconsolidated sediments are roughly divided into talus deposits and recent river deposit. The talus
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deposits are mainly distributed on gentle slopes, and the deposits generally consist of poorly sorted
clay to silt with weathered rock fragments. The recent river deposits are distributed along river course
where river gradient is not so steep, and the deposits generally consist of silt to sand with rather fresh
rock fragments.
3.2
Headworks
3.2.1 Geomorphology and Sediments

Excavated materials are dumped into river at the Hasang 1 site, and a big volume of the excavated
materials are accumulated on gentle portion of the Kualu River. The accumulation of the excavated
materials causes the following change of condition of the river course.
-
On the upstream section of the weir, boulder- to cobble-size excavated materials are
accumulated on the left side of the river course, and the water flow on the meandering section is
blocked as shown in Figure 3.2.1 and Photo 3.2.1. Although it is difficult to forecast the feature
change of water course, there is possibility that no water will flow to the intake gate of the
present design, if accumulation of the sediments continues on the left side of the upstream
section. A possible solution is to change to be straight along the thin ridge on the left abutment
as shown in Figure 3.2.2. Cost increase for excavation of the thin ridge seems not to be much,
since the ridge should be excavated for the new alignment of waterway route.
On the downstream section the weir, boulder- to cobble-size excavated materials are
accumulated on the previous river course, and rive water course is changed to the left side,
resulting in erosion of the left bank, where paddy field was located as shown in Figure 3.2.1 and
Photo 3.2.2. Due to the erosion of the left bank on the downstream of the weir, alignment of the
waterway and desander will be shifted to the mountain side as shown in Figure 3.2.2.
Waterway
route
No water flow
Recent
S di
Weir axis
Photo 2.1
Change of water
course with erosion of
paddy
Photo 2.2
Recent
Source: overwriting on a part of Drawing HS-01-002, FS report)
Figure3.2.1LocationofRecentSedimentsandChangeofWaterCourse
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Recent
Sediments
Photo3.2.1UpstreamviewofHeadworksSite(seeFigure3.2.1forlocation)
Recent
Sediments
Photo3.2.2DownstreamViewofHeadworksSite(seeFigure3.2.1forlocation)
Alternative
waterway route
Waterway
Weir axis
Alternative
weir axis
Figure3.2.2Locationofrecentsedimentsandchangeofwatercourse
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3.2.2 Engineering Geology

Based on the result of site reconnaissance and existing data (such as drill logs of BH-D1, BH-D2, BHD3, and BH-D6; see Figure 3.2.3 for the locations), no serious problem is foreseen on foundation
geology of the weir and intake structures. Points on engineering geology, including an issue on thick
river deposit, are summarized as follows.
Source: a part of Drawing HS-03-001, FS report
Figure3.2.3LocationsofDrillHolesandTestPitsinHeadworksSite
-
Concrete structures of the weir and intake will be emplaced on slightly weathered pyroclastic
flow (Ignimbrite) for the most of the weir foundation as it shown in FS report (see Figure 3.2.4).
Soft materials on shallow depth, such as top soil, talus deposits, and completely to highly
weathered Ignimbrite, will be removed from the foundation of concrete. Moderately weathered
Ignimbrite will lie on some parts of the foundation, and it seems that the partial appearance of
moderately weathered rocks is not a big problem in terms of strength of the foundation. Since
continuous outcrops of highly to moderately weathered Ignimbrite are seen beside the river as
shown in Photo 3.2.3, suitable foundation of the weir and intake structures will be distributed at
shallow portions on the both abutment.
A foreseeable rock line (worse case)

H:V=3:1
Figure3.2.4GeologicalSectionofHeadworksSite
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Continuous outcrop
Photo3.2.3OutcroponThinRidgeofLeftabutment
-
At dill hole BH-D6, recent river deposits is distributed up to 12 m deep (EL.543.246 m).
Although assumed rock line is shown around EL.548.00 on the design drawing HS-11-003,
there is possibility that recent river deposits are distributed deeper portion (e.g. 5 m deeper than
the assumed rock line) as shown in Figure 3.2.5. The actual rock line might be much deeper as
shown in Figure 3.2.4. It is better to emplace concrete onto the rock foundation at the cut-off
portion of the weir structure mainly for the preventing. If the foundation rocks lie on deeper
portion, the excavation to the foundation rocks will be difficult due to seepage water. In such
case, another issue that increases of excavation volume and concrete volume will be arisen, and
another measure for preventing leakage should be taken, instead of deep excavation. Since
grouting in recent river deposit is considered not effective; only waste of cement, and thereby, a
watertight measure in recent river deposits by grouting is not applicable. Sheet piling may also
be not applicable, since penetration of piles in recent river deposits with many boulders is so
difficult. An applicable measure may be to extend seepage path by means of adding concrete
slab to the upstream.
EL.543
m
Figure3.2.5SectionofWeirandAssumedDepthofFoundationRocks
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The recent river deposits seem to have enough bearing capacity and shear strength as foundation
of the weir structure, if the materials are dominant in sand and gravel. In case that soft clay and
silt appear on excavated weir foundation, the soft materials should be removed and replaced
with concrete.
According to Appendix-B.3, FS report Lugeon Test [Permeability/Packer Test], permeability

of the foundation seems to be rather high; 110-2 cm/sec to 110-4 cm/sec. Based on the rock
conditions observed on outcrops and drilling core samples, the obtained values seem to be a bit
high, which may be due to leakage during the testing as illustrated in Figure 3.2.6. Standing on
safety side, permeability coefficient of 110-3 cm/sec will be used for seepage analysis, if the
analysis is required.
Water hose
Casing
Drilling rod
Overburden
Leakage, which
should not occur
Overburden
Bedrock
Leakage, which
should not occur
Bedrock
Packer
Test section
Test section
Water intake to
be measured
Water intake to
be measured
Open-mouse test
(permeability test)
Lugeon test
(packer test)
Figure3.2.6PossibleLeakagePathonPermeabilityTests
3.3
Desander
3.3.1 Geomorphology and Erosion

As described in the previous clause 3.2 Headworks and shown in Figure 3.2.1, foundation of water
way to the sediment trap facility was eroded due to change of watercourse of the Kualu River.
Based on observation during the site reconnaissance, some parts of the sediment trap facility and
connecting waterway route in the present design are located on or just beside the new river course.
Construction of facilities and embankment onto river course should be avoided, since such works are
technically difficult and costly, and the risk of erosion of the facilities and embankment is high.
The following responses are required for proper layout of the structures.
-
Topographic mapping of the affected area

Revision of geologic map and sections, based on the new topo-map
Design review and necessary re-arrangement or re-design of structures, based on the new
topographic and geologic information
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The facilities will be shifted to mountain side in order to layout then on stable foundation. Although
the cost for excavation will increase due to the shift of facilities, it is recommendable to avoid the risk
of erosion from a viewpoint of long-term stability of the facilities.

Based on the result of site reconnaissance and existing data (such as drill logs of BH-D3 to BH-D5;
see Figure 3.3.1 for the locations), some more efforts are required on the following issues.
Source: a part of Drawing HS-03-001, FS report
Figure3.3.1Locationsofdrillholesandtestpitsindesandersite
Stability of foundation of facilities
Although the sediment trap facility and connecting waterway are not big structures, stability (mainly
bearing capacity and shear strength) of the foundations will be checked, after final layout of the
facilities are fixed. In order to utilize geological investigation results properly, it is required to show
the simplified logs of drill holes and pits on the design drawings. There is no data of the result on
existing design drawings. Although assumed rock lines are shown in some parts of HS-13-001 to HS13-004, no evidence for the estimation of the line is shown in the drawings.
Protection against erosion of foundation of facilities
Although the layout of facilities will be reviewed and re-designed as mentioned in the previous clause,
the risk of erosion due to meandering of the river should be taken into account, because of the
following situations.
-
Wide paddy field was washed away with recent flood

The intensity of erosion may increase, since the river bank forms a typical undercut slope due to
the recent flood
If it is foreseen that further erosion will affect the foundation of the facilities, slope protection on the
river side of the slopes will be planned. The slope protection may be concrete wall, masonry, or
gabion fixed with stiff foundation for preventing scouring at the bottom.
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Slope stability on the mountain side of the facilities

Because of the following geological and geo-morphological conditions, slopes on the mountain side
of the facilities look like landslide features and might be unstable due to the excavation of the
facilities.
-
Drilling result at BH-D4 and BH-D5 indicates completely to highly weathered tuff is distributed
to a depth of 20 m or more. The upper portions of the tuff look like soil and might be re-worked
materials.
Horseshoe-shaped lines are seen and trees look disturbed on the slopes as shown in Photo 3.3.1,
and which geomorphology is similar to what develops in landslide areas.
So far, the identified landslide feature has not been confirmed as a real landslide and it can be said as
risk at present. On the existing report, there is no description on landslides, and consequently, it is
foreseen that no check on landslides have been done yet. Landslides might exist on other locations in
project areas. If landslides really exist and activate during and after construction, certain damage to
facilities might occur. The possibility of existence of real landslides can be judged somehow in detail,
with further site investigations to be conducted, and the result will be used for clarifying the degree of
the risk and necessity of measures.
Sketch of the photo above
White
tree trunk
Sky
Landslide feature
Vegetation
White
tree trunk
Vegetation
Disturbance of trees
Terrace
Old scarp
Sediment
New scarp
River
Photo3.3.1Sedimenttrapfacilitysite
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3.4
Inlet of Headrace Tunnel
3.4.1 Geomorphology
The inlet of headrace tunnel is located on a small ridge, it is judged to be a suitable location from the
following conditions.
-
Small possibility of uneven earth pressure

Small possibility of adverse effect to the inlet, due to erosion and debris flow
In case that the location of inlet is shifted to mountain side due to the re-layout of sediment trap
facility, the new location should be in a suitable area where there is no adverse condition in terms of
uneven earth pressure and erosion/debris flow.

Investigation drilling at BH-T1 has been done in the inlet site. Although drill logs and geologic
profiles of FS report show the assumed rock line at a depth of 6.7 m at BH-T1, assumed rock line on
the design drawings (HS-13-002 and HS-14-002) is at a depth of about 2 m as shown in Figure 3.4.1.
It seems that geological data was not properly taken into consideration in design.
Depth to assumed
rock line is 6.7 m
Depth to assumed
rock line is about 2 m
Distance is
about 8 m
H:V=1:1
Distance is
H:V=3:1 about 8 m
Overwriting on a part of
Drawing HS-03-001
Overwriting on a part of
Drawing HS-3-002
Figure3.4.1DifferentDepthtoAssumedRockLineamongDrawingsatInletSite
The location of the inlet portal will be shifted to mountain side from what shown in the design
drawings, in order to secure enough rock cover above the tunnel crown at the inlet.
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3.5
Tunnel Section of Waterway
3.5.1 Geomorphology
The headrace tunnel route lies on undulated hilly area. According to Drawing HS-03-002 of FS report,
the height elevation on the route is about 645 m with earth cover above the tunnel of about 90 m and
the lowest elevation is about 580 m with earth cover of about 25 m, except for inlet and outlet portal
section as shown in Figures 3.5.1 and 3.5.2. A straight water course lies on the location of the lowest
elevation as shown in Figure 3.5.1 and Photo 3.5.1. This water course may form a lineament,
although air-photo observation is required for the identification of the lineament.
Issues, relating to the thickness of the earth cover and the linear water course, will be described in the
next sub-clause, together with the geological conditions.
A straight water course, along which

a weak zone might be distributed
The height elevation of about 645 m
The lowest elevation of about 580 m
Source: overwriting on a part of Drawing HS-03-002
Figure3.5.1PlanofHeadracetunnel
Earth cover of
about 90 m
Earth cover of
about 25 m
Figure3.5.2SectionofHeadracetunnel
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Photo3.5.1ConditionofWaterCourseonLowestPortiononHeadraceTunnel

According to a geological section in drawings HS-03-006, Headrace tunnel route is underlain by
Tuff, Ignimbrite, and Tuff, as shown in Figure 3.5.3.
Based on observation and photographs of drilling core samples, the upper layer of Tuff is soft
(originally soft aeorial deposit, further softened due to weathering), look like soil as shown in Photo
3.5.2 Ignimbrite is slightly welded, moderately hard, and jointed with an interval of 10 cm to 50 cm
as shown in Photo 3.5.3. The rock seems to be originated in pyroclastic flow as mentioned in clause 3.
1 and Figure 3.1.3. The lower layer of Tuff is also moderately hard, but a little bit softer than
Ignimbrite, which may be due to lower degree of welding. The lower layer of Tuff is originally
the same rock as Ignimbrite, while degree of welding is lower. Some sections of core samples of
the lower layer of Tuff are densely jointed, but most of horizontal joints of the core samples seem to
be created with damage during drilling as shown in Photo 3.5.4.
Source: BH-T2, 5.00 m - 10.00 m, a part of page 26, Appendix D, FS report
Photo3.5.2UpperLayerofTuff(soft,likesoil)
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Photo3.5.3Ignimbrite(Moderatelyhard,sparselyjointed)
Photo3.5.4LowerLayerofTuff(Moderatelyhard,densejointsbydrilling)
Groundwater level
Tuff
Ignimbrite
Tuff
Figure3.5.3GeologicalSectionofHeadraceTunnel
The upper layer of Tuff is soft and not a good foundation of tunnel, and the present design of
downstream section of tunnel (cut and fill with concrete culvert) seems suitable.
Ignimbrite and the lower layer of Tuff is moderately hard and sparsely jointed, and no serious
problem in tunnel excavation is foreseen in terms of strength of the rocks.
Points on engineering geology to be noted are as follows.
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Intercalation of Palaeo-soil and soft materials

-
On the core samples of recent drilling PB-T1, two layers of palaeosoil were found, together with
palaeo-weathered zones as shown in Table 3.5.1.
Table3.5.1GeologicdescriptionofcoresampleofdrillingPBT1
Depth (m)
- 27.0
27.0 - 27.2
27.2 - 28.2
28.2 - 30.0
30.0 - 30.2
30.2 - 47.5
47.5 - 47.7
47.7 - 48.2
48.2 - 48.6
48.6 - 50.0
Geological description
Slightly weathered Ignimbrite
Palaeo-topsoil
Palaeo-soil
Highly weathered Ignimbrite
Moderately weathered Ignimbrite
Slightly weathered Ignimbrite
Palaeo-topsoil
Palaeo-soil
Highly weathered Ignimbrite
Moderately to slightly weathered Ignimbrite
Geologic Unit (tentative)

Lower section of flow unit 1
Complete section of flow unit 2
Upper section of flow unit 3
The succession of palaeo-topsoil to slightly weathered Ignimbrite is a sedimentation unit of

pyroclastic flow and successive weathering before sedimentation of the next pyroclastic flow as
shown in Table 3.5.1.
In case that palaeo-topsoil and weathered zones have been eroded before sedimentation of the
next flow unit, no clear boundary of the units can be identified.
Considering the above-mentioned condition, there is possibility that soft materials might be
encountered during tunnel excavation.
Based on the condition of the soft materials in core sample of drilling PB-T1, stability of the
tunnel can be secured with applying typical section for rock class IV in Drawing HS-14-004.
In case that much softer and thicker palaeo-soil is encountered in tunnel, steel supports might be
required to secure the tunnel stability.
Thin earth cover

-
As mentioned in the previous sub-clause, earth cover at middle section of the tunnel (around
Chainage 1+750) is thin, about 25 m thick.
Referring to the result of drilling at BH-T4, the upper-half section of the earth cover may be soft
materials, and the lower half may be highly to moderately weathered Ignimbrite.
The tunnel stability seems to be secured by applying a proper support pattern among typical
sections shown in Drawing HS-14-004. But, serious situations might occur, if the tunnel section
is in the following adverse conditions.
-
A case that a weak zone (such as a fault or sheared zone) lies along straight water course
(see Figure 3.5.1)
A case that palaeo-topsoil or other soft materials is distributed at the tunnel elevation
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A case that groundwater fills the weak zone (if the groundwater is pressurized with
massive cover of the upper flow unit, situation will be much worse).
Although possibility of worse situation with combination of the above-mentioned cases seems to
be low, it is recommendable to study about measures to cope with conceivable worse situations.
Groundwater level
-
In general, abrupt flush out of groundwater into tunnel cause serious accident during tunnel
excavation.
In case of the Headrace tunnel, possibility of abrupt flush out of groundwater is not so high,
because of the following conditions.
-
Catchment area is rather small, about 1 km2, as shown in Figure 3.5.4.

Groundwater level, measured in drill holes, is not so high, as shown in Figure 3.5.3.
There is small possibility of abrupt groundwater flushing, in case of combination of the

following conditions.
-
A high permeable layer such as the layer of palaeo-soil, is distributed on the tunnel route.
Confined and high-pressure groundwater exists in the layer as shown in Figure 3.5.5.
If there is indication of the abrupt flushing, such as increase of seepage water from tunnel
face, pilot drilling may be carried out to release the confined groundwater gradually as
shown in Figure 3.5.5.
1 km
Source: overwriting on a published topo-map on a scale 1:50,000
Figure3.5.4CatchmentAreaofHeadraceTunnel
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Confined groundwater
Free groundwater
Free groundwater
Pilot drilling
Figure3.5.5ForeseeableGroundwaterCondition
Considering risks on geological conditions and others during construction, such as trouble of
machinery, it is recommendable to consider in detail about installation of work adit as mentioned in
Clause 15.2.6.1 (page 228), FS report in order to reduce the risk of extension of construction period,
since the tunnel excavation is a critical path in construction schedule.
Possible locations of the work adits and access roads are shown in Figure 3.5.6. Inclination of the
adits will be 5% to 10%, and the half of section of adits will be constructed with open excavation. A
straight water course, along which a weak zone might be distributed, will be considered as a risk.
A straight water course, along which

a weak zone might be distributed
Possible location
: Work adit
Figure3.5.6PossibleLocationsofWorkAditsandAccessRoads
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3.6
Outlet of Headrace Tunnel and Cut & Cover Section of Waterway
3.6.1 Geomorphology and Engineering Geology

Original ground height elevation at the outlet of the headrace tunnel is about 590 m and this gradually
comes down along the alignment of the waterway to about 560 m.
Geological investigation, at two drilling holes at BH-T5 and BH-T6 and four test pits at TP-W1 to
TP-W4, have been done at FS stage. The investigation results revealed that the tunnel section from
Chainage 2+445 to 2+760 was underlain by soft materials as summarized in Table 3.6.1, and
accordingly, the tunnel is planned to construct by cut & cover with installation of concrete culvert.
The design is judged to be suitable, and the following points will be taken into consideration.
Table3.6.1SummaryofLaboratoryTestsatCut&CoverSite
Hole/Pit
BH-T5
BH-T6
TP-W1
TP-W2
TP-W3
TP-W4
Depth (m)
3.50-4.00
9.50-10.00
13.50-14.00
17.50-18.00
5.00-5.50
11.00-11.50
13.50-14.00
17.50-18.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
Average
Maximum
Minimum
Water
Content
(%)
Specific
gravity
35.26
35.52
34.41
26.29
24.95
36.54
24.91
31.86
37.38
38.53
33.20
40.29
34.37
36.21
38.29
33.87
40.29
24.91
2.63
2.52
2.58
2.56
2.27
2.40
2.56
2.53
2.59
2.54
2.50
2.60
2.55
2.49
2.58
2.53
2.63
2.27
Shear Strength
C
(kg/cm2) (degree)
0.33
0.18
0.33
0.33
0.15
0.14
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.37
0.37
0.26
0.37
0.29
0.24
0.28
0.37
0.14
10.69
11.00
14.22
15.72
7.46
6.89
10.98
7.33
20.37
11.09
22.36
14.17
19.62
16.41
15.64
13.60
22.36
6.89
Temporary slope stability measures

According to Drawing HS-14-003, the gradient of the excavated slopes is H:V=1:5. Since the height
of the slopes is more than 30 m at the tunnel outlet, and the slopes will be exposed to rain and
weathering for about 2.5 years, slope protection measures are required to secure the slope stability.
Conceivable measures are as follows.
-
To apply gentler excavated slope gradient on the upper portions of high slopes, where softer
materials are distributed.
To install surface drain ditches on berms and natural slopes above the excavation area as well as
connecting drain between drain ditches on the berms
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To cover the slope surface with shotcrete, etc. to prevent surface erosion and surface collapse
due to the erosion
To apply nailing with steel bars to prevent surface sliding by unifying soft portions on the slopes
To protect the lower portions of the excavated slopes with concrete wall or masonry wall to
prevent erosion on the bottom of the slopes
The above-mentioned measures i) and ii) will be added on design drawing, and measures iii) to
v) will be adopted during construction, based on the observation of the actual condition of the
excavated slope surface.
Permanent drainage of surface water

Although most of the portion of the excavated slopes will be back filled, the backfill materials are soft
and subject to erosion and infiltration of rain water. The infiltrated water and surface water may
gather at starting point of open channel, resulting in damage or disturbance with eroded materials at
the starting portion of open channel. Surface drainage on the backfill portion will be required to
prevent such adverse effect of surface/ infiltrated water flow.
3.7
Head Pond

The head pond is positioned on a rather steep mountainside. Original ground height elevation of along
the head pond axis is about 555 m.
At the head pond site, drilling investigation was carried out at BH-W1 (Z=539.234 m.a.s.l). The
result indicates the following geological condition.
0.00 m 3.00 m : Decomposed clay stone or talus deposit
3.00 m 5.00 m : Highly to completely weathered clay stone
5.00 m 12.5 m : Moderately weathered clay stone
12.5 m 15.00 m : slightly weathered clay stone
According to Drawings HS-16-002 to HS-16-004, most of concrete structure of the Head Pond will be
emplaced on the foundation after excavation of 3 m deep or more. The foundation seems to have
enough bearing capacity of the Head Pond structure.
3.8
Penstock

The penstock is laid on a gentle downhill beneath the head pond.
The foundation of penstock, including foundation of anchor blocks will be soft materials. The soft
materials seem to be two origins; aeolian deposit and pyroclastic flow as shown in Figure 3.8.1.
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The aeolian deposit is originally soft and the deposit is accordingly weathered up to deep portion. At
the drilling point BH-P1, N values of the deposit are less than 10 to a depth of 12 m.
The other section of the Penstock is underlain by pyroclastic flow. The thickness of completely
weathered zone, which shows N=10 or less, is variable; 2 m to 10 m thick.
Aeolian deposit of
Toba Tuff Unit
Tapanuli
Group
Pyroclastic flow of
Toba Tuff Unit
Figure3.8.1EstimatedDistributionofTapanuliGroup
Points on engineering geology are as follows.

Stability of foundation of anchor blocks
Foundations of some anchor blocks may be soft and require deep excavation to emplace the structures
on suitable foundation.
Stability of embankment
Embankment is planned at several areas on the foundation of the Penstock. The highest embankment
of more than 10 m high is located just downstream of the Head Pond. In order to secure the stability
of the embankment, proper management of construction is required as mentioned below.
-
Top soil and loosened zone on the surface should be removed.
Method of compaction of the embanked materials, including number of passes of compactor,

should be determined, based on the compaction test. The thickness of one layer for compaction
will be 30 cm.
Surface protection measures should be taken in order to prevent erosion of the embankment.
Rip-rap materials will be embanked on the surface.
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Under drain of pipe culvert should be inclined 3% or more to prevent sedimentation in the pipe.
Screen will be installed at the inlet, so that the pipe is not plugged with big rock fragments.
In case the embankment is getting unstable, serious damage to penstock is foreseen.

recommendable to change alignment of the penstock, so that embankment can be minimized.
It is
Stability of excavated slopes

Access road to the Powerhouse has been constructed, it is may be for transportation of drilling
equipment, since it is too steep to use construction purpose. Although excavation for the access road
is not so big, gully erosion is seen in several places as shown in Photos 3.8.1 and 3.8.2.
Photos3.8.1and3.8.2GullyErosionafterExcavationofAccessRoadtoPowerhousesite
3.9
Powerhouse

The powerhouse is located at the foot of the gentle slope beneath the penstock.
Drilling investigation was carried out at BH-S1 and BH-S2. Soft materials (completely to highly
weathered Ignimbrite) are distributed to a depth of 11 m at BH-S1 and 13.2 m at BH-S2. On the
riverbed of the Kualu River, continuous outcrops of moderately hard Ignimbrite are seen as shown in
Photo 3.9.1, and same good rocks will be distributed on the foundation of the Powerhouse. It is
thereby judged that there is no serious problem in engineering geology at the Powerhouse site.
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Direction of
platy joints
Photo3.9.1OutcropsofModeratelyHardIgnimbriteatPowerhouseSite
Points on engineering geology are mainly on slope stability as mentioned below.
Stability of excavated slope on soil foundation
Gradient of excavated slope behind the Powerhouse are H:V=1:5 for all permanent and temporary
slopes as shown in Drawings HS-20-001 and HS-20-002. As clarified with drilling investigation at
BH-S1 and BH-S2, soft materials of 10 m thick or more are distributed on the slope behind the
Powerhouse, slope gradient on the upper portion of permanent slopes will be much gentle to secure
the stability. It is required to consider geological investigation result for the design of excavated
slopes.
Rock slide due to platy joints (cooling joints) dipping to river side
On the outcrops on the riverbed, platy joints are seen as shown in Photo 3.9.1. The platy joints seem
to be developed during cooling of welded tuff. The joints dip to river on the slope behind the
Powerhouse, and thereby, plane slide of rock mass is foreseeable on the excavated slopes. Joint
condition and slope stability of excavated rock mass should be carefully observed, and necessary
measure such as rock bolts will be taken, when indication of instability is found.
Landslide features on the left bank of the Kualu River, just upstream of the powerhouse site
Possible landslide features are identified on the topo-map as shown in Figure 3.9.1, although no
detailed site reconnaissance has been done. In case that the landslides really exit and activated during
and after construction, big amount of materials may be moving to the downstream and might
endanger the powerhouse facilities. The water course where spillway is planned may be the boundary
of the landslide masses. Water, to be flowing along spillway, might infiltrate into ground and activate
the landslides.
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It is recommendable to carry out detailed investigation on landslide. The first step of the investigation
is site reconnaissance to clarify the evidence of the landslides. If certain evidences are found, further
investigation such as some more detailed topo-mapping and drilling investigation with laboratory test
and monitoring will be done as the second step for proper measures.
Possible
landslide
features
Figure3.9.1PossibleLandslideFeaturesjustupstreamofPowerhouseSite
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3.10 Suggestions and Recommendations

From the geomorphologic and geological viewpoints, suggestions and recommendations are made as
follows.
a)
Adjustment of axis of intake weir
Because of a big amount of recent sedimentation, river course is changed. Taking account of the thin
ridge on the left bank also, it is recommendable to consider changing the location of the intake as well
as the alignment of weir axis.
b)
Adjustment of location of sediment trap facility and connecting waterway route
The recent sediments also affected downstream course of weir site, where the de-sander is planned.
Some of the area of the de-sander seems to be eroded due to the change of the river course, and there
is no enough space to layout the facility. It may be necessary to shift the de-sander to the mountain
side to meet geomorphology changed recently.
c)
Landslides on the areas of de-sander and powerhouse
Possible landslide features are identified at the sites of de-sander and powerhouse. Although those
features have not been confirmed as real landslides, it is recommendable to check the possibility, in
order to minimize the risk of the landslides.
d)
Addition of work adit
Several issues are arisen on engineering geology of headrace tunnel. Although the issues are not so
serious, it is possible to encounter difficulty in tunnel excavation due to combination of several issues.
Considering that the tunnel construction is the critical path in construction schedule, it is
recommendable to consider to add work adit.
e)
Alignment of penstock route
Several issues are arisen on engineering geology of penstock route. In order to minimize risks
relating to penstock, it is recommendable to consider changing alignment of the penstock.
f)
Others
The re-study or re-design on the following issues may be done for smooth construction works.
-
To fix the location of tunnel portal, based on geological investigation results

To install drain system of surface water on the cut & cover section of waterway
To check excavated slope gradients, based on the geological investigation results
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4.
POWER GENERATION
4.1
General
In the Feasibility Study, the energy simulation was carried out based on the hydrological analysis and
the feasibility design for the following two scenarios.
Table4.1.1TwoScenariosforEnergySimulation
Scenario
Hydrological Duration
Mean Annual Energy
Base Case
Conservative Case
Average (26.7 m3/s)

Moderate (25.0m3/s)
288.32 GWh
260.53 GWh
Mean Annual Energy

with Loss
275.53GWh
248.98 GWh
Source: Chapter 10.4 of Feasibility Study
Hereinafter discussed are NKs comments on the input parameters for the energy simulation adopted
in the Feasibility Study, and possible impact to such simulation due to review result of the hydrology
as well as the project layout of the Study.
4.2
Project Layout
Before we examine the energy simulation, we need to discuss if the project layout proposed in the
Feasibility Study is optimal or not. The most critical issue is the penstock length of the Project.
4.2.1 Stability of Penstock

The penstock length proposed in the Feasibility Study is 1,669m against the design net head of
189.27m. This penstock length is too long to obtain the stability of penstock with a reasonable fly
wheel effect of the generators (GD2).
Assuming that this power plant is required to be used for frequency control and/or capable for isolated
operation, stability of penstock is checked by the following formula.
Tw
LV
gH
Tm
0 .00274 GD 2 N 2
Pt
Tw 2
Tm
2
where,
Tw : Starting up time of water column (s)
L : Length of waterway (penstock) (m)
V : velocity of water (m/s)
g : Acceleration of gravity (m/s2)
H : Design head (m)
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Tm : Starting up time of unit (s)

GD2 : Flywheel effect of generator (ton-m2)
= 310,000 * (Pg/N1.5)1.25 (Water Power & Dam Construction)
N : Rotational speed (rpm)
Pt : Turbine output (kW)
Pg : Generator output (MVA)
Tm = 4.41 > 2 Tw^2 = 58.46 (not OK)
Based on the present data, the stability of waterway (penstock) is not secured and large GD2 (537 t-m)
will be required. It is impossible.
If stability of waterway is not satisfied, there is high possibility to be instable in power generation
operation such as frequency will be fluctuated exceeding the required limit and power output also will
be fluctuated when demand is changed.
To overcome this issue, two (2) alternatives are conceivable:
Alt-1-1: To shift the head pond to the river side
Alt-1-1 is to shift the head pond to the river side as much as practicable topographically and the
penstock is started there. In this layout, the headrace channel will be constructed on the embankment
and the head pond will be rather high structure. The head pond might be shifted to where anchor
block P2-P3 are located then length of the penstock will be about 1,200m.
General layout of Alt-1 is seen in Figure 4.2.1. Even in this case, however, stability of the penstock is
not satisfied and requires GD2 of 278 t-m. This is still too large.
Alt-1-2: To provide a surge tank between the head pond and the powerhouse
Alt-1-2 is to locate the head tank at the same location as the present design. The pressured headrace is
started at the head pond. The pressured headrace is connected to the surge tank which is located
around at EL. 500m and the penstock is started there for about 450 m length. The pressured headrace
will be of steel. The surge tank will be of a high structure of steel or pre-stressed concrete. General
layout of Alt-2 is seen in Figure 4.2.2. Cost of the surge tank is roughly estimated at US$ 3 mil.
4.2.2 Pressure Rise

Even in case that this power plant is not required to be used for frequency control and/or isolated
operation, and thus stability of penstock is not a matter of issue, the long penstock will cause another
problem; that is, an excessive pressure rise due to the water hammer. To overcome this issue, three
(3) alternatives are conceivable.
Alt-2-1: To add GD2 so as to allow slow closing of guide vane
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Alt-2-1 is to add GD2 so as to allow slow closing of the guide vane to prevent severe pressure rise. To
limit the maximum pressure rise at 35 %, the required GD2 in case of the original layout is 106 t-m,
which is judged still applicable. Cost of the additional weight of the generator is roughly estimated at
US$ 9 mil.
Alt-2-2: To adopt Pelton type turbines instead of Francis type turbines
Alt-2-2 is to adopt the Pelton type turbines, instead of the Francis type turbines. Although this type is
essentially a high head turbine, the planned discharge and the head of the Project are plotted near the
boundary, but within the application range, of the Pelton type turbines. The Pelton type turbines are
equipped with jet deflectors which allow slow closure of the needle.
Disadvantage of the Pelton type turbines is that they must be installed above the highest probable
taiwater level which may sacrifice the available head. Also the efficiency at the peak discharge is
lower than the one of the Francis type turbines. Loss of energy due to these reasons is roughly
estimated at 5.5% of the total energy. This is equivalent with additional cost of US$ 4 mil.
Alt-2-3: To adopt the pressure regulator (pressure relief valve)
Alt-2-3 is to attach pressure regulators (pressure relief valves) to the Francis type turbines to release
the excessive pressure rise induced by any rapid closing. This option, however, is not recommended
as high reliability is required for the devices. If malfunction occurs, the whole system of the Project
will be jeopardized.
Comparison of the alternatives are seen in Table 4.2.1.
Table4.2.1AlternativesforPenstockIssues
1
Alt.1-1
Alt.1-2
2
Alt.2-1
Alt.2-2
Alt.2-3
Alternatives
Stability of Penstock
To shift the head pond to
the river side
To provide a surge tank
between the head pond
and the powerhouse
Pressure Rise
To add GD2 so as to
allow slow closing of
guide vane
To adopt Pelton type
turbines instead of
Francis type turbines
To adopt the pressure
regulator (pressure relief
valve)
Advantage
Disadvantage
Assessment
No substantial impact is
caused to energy
production.
caused to energy
production.
Required GD2 is still too

large.
Cost will be increased

for Surge Tank
caused to energy
production.
caused to project cost.
Cost will be increased

for larger GD2
Energy production will

be decreased.
caused to energy
production.
In case of malfunction of
Pressure Regulator, the
system will be
jeopardized.
Source: NK
Preliminary comparison of impact to project cost and energy production as well as the risk above
reveals that Alt. 1-2 is the most recommendable option.
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Source: Overwriting on drawing in Feasibility Study
Figure4.2.1LayoutofAlt.11
Figure4.2.2LayoutofAlt.12
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4.3
Power Generation
4.3.1 Hydrological Duration

As discussed earlier in chapter 2.3, it is evaluated that the Average Scenario which was adopted in the
Feasibility Study Report is rather overestimated and the Moderate Scenario is therefore recommended
to apply for estimation of the annual energy production by the Project.
4.3.2 River Maintenance Flow

A river maintenance flow (or duty flow) of 1m3/s constant over the entire year was proposed in the
ESIA and thus was taken into account for the energy simulation in the Feasibility Study.
In the past, there was no regulation in Indonesia on how much maintenance flow is required for the
hydropower plants. The latest hydropower master plan study by JICA in 2011 titled Project for the
Master Plan Study of Hydropower Development in Indonesia adopted a rate of the minimum flow
release at 0.2 m3/s per 100 km2 of catchment area above the intake weir. This rate was set referring to
other hydropower projects constructed or being constructed in Sumatra.
In Japan, the rates of 0.1 m3/s - 0.3 m3/s per 100km2 of the catchment area are adopted as the
guideline issued by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism for renewal of permission
of hydropower business.
Taking account of the above as well as the catchment area of 501 km2 for the Project, it is reasonable
that the river maintenance flow was set at 1.0 m3/s in the Feasibility Study.
Meanwhile, article 25 of the government regulation No.38, 2011 regarding the River stipulates that
the river maintenance flow would be the 95% dependable river runoff. It is unclear to which extent
this regulation will be applied for run-of-river type hydropower or if any exclusion from application
exists or not. Due to that uncertainty, it is suggested that the annual energy production will be
estimated assuming the river maintenance flow for the both cases of; i) ESIA, and ii) Government
Regulation No. 38, 2011.
4.3.3 Loss
The energy loss, which is physical and/or imaginary energy not being delivered to the off-take point,
is reasonably taken into account in the Feasibility Study. The total loss assumed was 4.5% to the
theoretical maximum energy generation after deducting the river maintenance flow. It is composed of
reasonable figures; 1.5% for outage, 1% for sediment removal, and 2% for station use.
It is of paramount important for the investors to understand that the river maintenance flow would
bring about fatal damage to the Project profitability, if it is of the 95% dependable river runoff.
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4.3.4 Mean Annual Energy

With taking account of the hydrological duration, the river maintenance flow (or duty flow) and the
loss above, the saleable mean annual energy of the Project for checking the project feasibility would
be:
Table4.3.1ComparisonofAnnualEnergy
Description
Unit
1.
Hydrology Series
Base Case
Low Case
Reg No. 38
Average
Moderate
Moderate
2.
River maintenance flow
m3/s
1.0
1.0
6.7
3.
Installed Capacity
GW
42.45
42.45
42.45
4.
Theoretical Mean Annual Energy
GWh
288.3
260.5
190.7
5.
Availability
98.5
98.5
98.5
6.
Available Maximum Annual Energy
GWh
284.0
256.7
187.9
7.
Station Loss (2% of 6.)
GWh
5.7
5.1
3.8
8.
Spillage Loss
GWh
2.8
2.6
1.9
9.
Saleable Mean Annual Energy
GWh
275.5
249.0
182.3
Plant Factor
74.1
67.0
49.0
10.
Base Case and Low Case correspond to Annex 17.3 and 17.4 of the Feasibility Study, respectively.
Reg. No. 38 corresponds to the case when the Government Regulation No.38, 2011 is strictly applied to Low
Case.
Source: based on energy simulation in Feasibility Study and Review Team
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5.
DESIGN ISSUES: ACCESS ROAD
5.1
General
The Feasibility Study identified that a total of approximately 7 km of exiting unpaved/partly paved
road will need to be upgraded and 5 km of new permanent access roads will be newly built. Among
them, the main roads to be upgraded and/or newly built are as follows.
Table5.1.1MainAccessRoadstobeUpgradedand/orNewlyBuilt
Route
Janji to Sipultak
Sipultak to Halilogoan (Head Pond)
Harilogoan to Dolok Barimbing
Dolok Barimbig to Powerhouse
Access to road to weir site
Length
1.8km
1.95km
2km
1.2km
1.5km
Existing Condition
Mostly unpaved
Unpaved
Unpaved
Unpaved
To be newly constructed
5.2
Access Road
The followings are commented as the result of the site reconnaissance and the desktop review.
-
Access to Parsoburan from Medan through the existing road is good, betterment will not be
required. However, notice and permission of police and related organization should be made and
obtained when transportation of heavy equipment.
According to the present design, the access road from Janji to near the head pond, the existing
road will be widened and paved in the same route. However, several sections of the existing
road are very steep in longitudinal gradient and too small horizontal radius. Thus, trailer to
transport heavy equipment cannot pass. Construction of new road by re-route or improvement of
vertical alignment for these sections will be necessary. Additional land acquisition will be
required. In addition, loading capacity of bridge and box culvert should be checked.
The above access road is belonging to Kabupaten Road at the moment, it is recommended to be
clear responsibility of repair and maintenance during construction and after construction
(operation stage).
New access road from the head pond to the powerhouse will be constructed in the same route of
the existing access road which was used in the investigation stage. However, this road is also too
steep, it should be re-routed.
Application of Type-1 and Type-2 shown in HS-30-004 should be clear. Typical width of
pavement is 6.0 m. It can be reduced to 4.5 m. For passing vehicle each other, preparation of a
passing bay every 500 m interval is recommendable.
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6.
DESIGN ISSUES: CIVIL STRUCTURES
6.1
General
The Feasibility Study formulated the Project with the following main civil structures.
Table6.1.1MainCivilStructuresoftheProject
Main Structures
Intake Weir
Power Intake
Intake Channel
De-sander
Headrace Tunnel
Headrace Channel
Penstock
Powerhouse
Description
A fixed overflow weir, including two sediment flushing gates at the
left bank
At the left bank, equipped with trash rack
A free flow system for a design discharge of 25 m3/s
Consisting of three surface basins and flushing facilities to remove
particles >0.3mm
2.76 km long, concrete lining at invert and walls
1.15km long open channel, U-shape, 4.0mW x 4.0mH
NOL: EL.555.0m, design discharge of spillway at 27.5m3/s
1.67km long, 2.3m dia.
Surface type equipped with 3 x 13.4MW Francis units, transformers
and switchyard, TWL: EL.347.9m
Hereinafter discussed are NKs comments on the design of the civil structures adopted in the
Feasibility Study.
6.2
6.2.1 General Layout

According to the actual site conditions observed on January 18, 2013, the left river bank in
downstream of the intake weir site in which the intake channel and de-sander are located, was eroded
and slid down. The present layout of the intake channel and the de-sander cannot be situated, and it
should be confirmed by survey.
Further, the ridge in the left bank in which the intake is located is rather thin. After excavation of
abutment of the intake weir and the intake, the remaining sound rock become be very thin.
As countermeasure for above items, change of layout of these structures including weir axis is
recommended. (refer to Figure 6.2.1)
According to the design in the feasibility study, the curved overflow weir in the center is designed as
curvature alignment. It is rather complicated for construction and water flow in flood condition will
be turbulent. More simple alignment is desirable. Change of layout is justified from this viewpoint.
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Eroded left river bank (location of Intake Channel

& De-sander)
Ridge of Left abutment of Intake Weir and Power

Intake
Photo6.2.1SituationatIntakeWeirandPowerIntake
Alternative
waterway route
Waterway
Weir axis
Alternative
weir axis
Figure6.2.1ProposedLayout
6.2.2 Impact due to Development in Upstream

There are many big boulders at the intake weir site. According to the site inspection on January 17,
2013, almost of all of them are derived from the construction works of the hydropower station in
upstream. Excavated materials of about 1.8 km long waterway (Open Channel), penstock and
powerhouse were thrown into river. (It is clear because no Spoil Bank was observed.) The excavation
works was still underway and progressed about half. The construction works of the said power station
are suspended at the moment. Construction schedule of it in future should be confirmed. When the
construction works will be resumed, it is recommended strongly to stop the spoiling of excavation
materials to river. Otherwise, the Intake Weir will be filled up the excavated materials soon.
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These boulders shall be removed to downstream prior to start of the construction works as much as
possible.
In order to prevent entering such boulders in front of the power intake. It is recommended to construct
some debris barrier structure in the upstream. (refer to Figure 6.2.2.)
Intake Weir (Only half was completed)
Victoria Fall
Excavation of Headrace Channel (suspended)
Excavation of Powerhouse (Additional boring is

being undertaken)
Photo6.2.2ConstructionWorksinUpstream
Source: Overwriting on topographic map in Feasibility Study
Figure6.2.2DebrisBarrierStruture
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6.2.3 River Diversion

25 years probable flood of 480 m3/s is applied for design flood for the river diversion. Considering
the construction period of the intake weir about 1 year and the concrete weir, 2-5 years probable flood
is enough. However, as examined in the Hydrology, the probable flood discharge is deemed to be
estimated lower side. Then, using of the present design discharge is still acceptable.
Re-layout of the intake weir may omit the dividing wall which was positioned at the boundary of the
straight and curved overflow spillways in the Feasibility Study.
6.2.4 Hydraulic Design

As mentioned in Sub-section 12.3.1.3 in the Feasibility Study Report, the 100-year flood discharge
was used as various load cases for hydraulic design of the weir structure as follows:
-
Design flood: 100-year flood with all gates open

Check flood: 100-year flood and one gate not operational (n-1 rule)
Safety check flood: 1.5 x 100-year flood with all gates open
The design flood water levels estimated from the original 100-year flood are given in Sub-section
12.3.5.3 in the Feasibility Study Report as summarized below.
-
Water Level Design Flood (HQ100, n): 560.0 m a.s.l.

Water Level Check Flood (HQ100, n-1): 560.7 m a.s.l.
Water Level Safety Flood (1.5 x HQ100, n): 560.9 m a.s.l.
Due to the underestimate of 100-year flood discharge, design flood water levels in the above shall be
increased to some extent. Therefore it is necessary to make hydraulic calculation design again.
According to the feasibility report (see Sub-section 12.3.5.3), the crest elevation of embankment at the
intake weir was determined at 561.5 m a.s.l. with a freeboard of 0.6 m given during the Safety Flood
(561.5 = 560.9 + 0.6). Therefore the crest elevation of embankment shall be increased applying the
same freeboard from the safety viewpoint of Hasang weir.
Besides the above, due to an increase of the 100-year flood discharge from 539 m3/sec to 1,000 m3/sec,
the following design water levels and associated hydraulic design calculation shall be carried out by
use of HEC-RAS software as applied in the feasibility design.
-
Tail water levels (see Sub-section 12.3.5.1): Figure 12-7, Figure 12-8, Table 12-3
Weir capacity (see Sub-section 12.3.5.2): Figure 12-8
Check for un-submerged flushing conditions (see Sub-section 12.3.5.4)
Stilling basins (see Sub-section 12.3.5.5)
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Two sets of radial gate are proposed at the weir site in the feasibility study, one of which is with a flap
gate. Due to an increase of the 100-year flood discharge, maximum flood water level in time of the
increased 100-year flood would increase from the designed water level in the feasibility study.
It might cause submergence of pin structures of radial gate. It is recommended to review on selection
of gate type through hydraulic design. If risk of submergence occurs, slide gate shall be recommended
to avoid submergence from the safety viewpoint of gate operation.
6.2.5 Structural Design

Stability
Stability analysis of the fixed overflow weir was made together with stilling basin. The weir and
stilling basin structures should be separated by the contraction joint. And then, stability analysis
should be made separately. (refer to Figure 6.2.3) Location of contraction joints and details of them
for the intake weir and related structures should be clearly shown.
Up lift of the weir foundation in stability analysis is not uniform. Uplift of upstream of the grout
curtain should be full water depth.
Figure6.2.3ContractionJointofOverflowWeir
Piping
Safety against piping for several sections of foundation should be checked. (refer to Figure 6.2.4)
In the left abutment, outcrop of Ignimbrite is observed and it is rather weathered and soft. In the
present design, abutment wall is designed, it is reasonable but buck-fill materials should be
impervious materials and cut-off wall maybe requested in order to align the grout curtain line up to
abutment continuously, also. The same recommendation is given in the left abutment.
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Figure6.2.4CurtainGroutLineandStudyofPiping
Others
If key cut-off is shifted upstream by about 2.0 m,
the grouting works can be done from the toe of
Weir after concrete placement and shorten the
construction period. The curtain grout maybe
omitted if further geological investigation proves
that the permeability of the foundation rock is low.
Figure6.2.5CurtainGroutLine
6.3
6.3.1 Consideration on Geological Aspect

The intake channel and de-sander will be constructed on Tuff, Soil Materials and Ignimbrite.
According to core logs of BH D-3, D-4 and D-5, foundation of the channel and de-sander will be
constructed on the foundation more than 50 in SPT, however actual location of the channel and desander is more river side. Geological conditions at the actual site should be confirmed and some
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special treatment of the foundation such as replacement of concrete with poor soil will be required.
(refer to Figure 6.3.1). Possibility of landslide is also an issue as discussed in chapter 3.3.
Figure6.3.1LocationofGeologicalInvestigation
6.3.2 Intake Channel

The intake channel has two curves and can be modified to more simple alignment with one curve.
6.3.3 De-sander
The de-sander has three (3) basins in the Feasibility Study, meanwhile two (2) basins de-sander is
conceivable to simplify the structures.
Structure of the inlet of the de-sander is rather complicated, simple structure is desirable.
The stoplog in front of gate at the inlet is not necessary always because this gate is opened in normal
condition and maintenance/repair will be done easily. In the contrary, a gate will be necessary at the
end of the de-sander, otherwise, water come into the sand trap basin from downstream during flushing
operation and flushing will be not done effectively.
Flushing channel under the de-sander is recommended to be constructed with embedded steel liner
which is act as form work because this structure is small and complicated.
Typical section of the Flushing Channel to the river is recommended to wider section and with energy
killer.
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Location and details of the contraction joint shall be shown.
Figure6.3.2CommentsonDesander
6.4
Headrace Tunnel

About 1,500 m long out of 2,445 m of the headrace tunnel will penetrate the Tuff layer below the
Ignimbrite. According to the geological investigation, this Tuff is fresh and hard, however RQD of
cores are not so high and shows high permeability having 100 Lu value or more.
After boring core observation on January 18, 2013, it was judged that difference between Ignimbrite
and Tuff layers is not significant and the Tuff layer below the Ignimbrite is sound for tunnel
excavation.
If the Tuff layer shows high permeability, careful grouting surrounding rock and or membrane behind
concrete lining is recommendable.
Meanwhile, the followings should be noted as the risk factors for tunneling as described in Chap.3.5.
-
Intercalation of Palaeo-soil and soft materials

Thin earth cover
Groundwater level
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6.4.2 Structural Details

Sequence of concrete placing, bottom slab is placed in advance and both side walls are followed, is
reasonable. However, haunches at the lower corners are difficult to construct and can be omitted.
(construction method) (refer to Figure 6.4.1)
Drilling of drain holes shall be decided carefully. Permeability of tuff layer shows high value.
Joint arranged every 12 m requires water stop.
Figure6.4.1ConcreteLiningofHeadraceTunnel
6.5
Headrace Channel

According to the core observation of BH T-6, the Tuff layer above the Ignimbrite is very weak and
tunnel heading stand by itself is questionable. The end point of tunnel shall be decided based on the
actual conditions during construction.
Excavation slopes of the cut and cover section and of the Headrace Channel are too steep. For the
former, 1 to 0.5 or more gentle slope is recommendable, even it is temporary. For the latter, 1 to 1.0
more gentle slope is recommendable if no protective measure. (refer to Figure 6.5.1)
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Figure6.5.1ExcavationSlopeandEmbankment

Backfill to the original ground at the cut and cover section is not necessary. It cause bigger earth
pressure. (refer to Figure 6.5.1) As for materials, excavated site materials, mainly weathered tuff, is
not suitable. Excavated tunnel muck (ignimbrite) and/or river deposit are recommendable.
Design of crossing structures such as pipe culvert and bridge should be made. Especially, size of pipe
culvert should be decided carefully taking flood water into consideration. (refer to Figure 6.5.2)
Figure6.5.2CrossDrainandBridge
6.6
6.6.1 Head Pond

The followings shall be noted:
-
Protective measure such as shot-crete or sodding against erosion on the excavated slope is
required.
Width of rock trap shall be wider to 2.0m.
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Access Road shall be extended to gate and raking operation yard. (refer to Figure 6.6.1)
Operation yard of Head Pond Release Gate shall be widen and accessible. (refer to Figure 6.6.1)
Gravel Sluice Valve should be protected and accessible. (refer to Figure 6.6.3)
Figure6.6.1HeadPondGateOperationYard
6.6.2 Spillway
-
Guide wall of the spillway at the beginning shall be higher. (refer to Figure 6.6.2)
Longitudinal profile of spillway is not shown, should be clear.
Application criteria of standard section of Type -2, 3, 4 and 5 are not clear. Type-3 should be
applied at the end portion only. (refer to Figure 6.6.4)
As for embankment materials, excavated site materials, mainly weathered tuff, is not suitable.
Excavated tunnel muck (ignimbrite) and/or river deposit are recommendable.
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Figure6.6.2CommentsonHeadPond
Figure6.6.3EmbankmentandCrossDrainofSpillway
Figure6.6.4TypicalSectionofSpillway
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6.7
Penstock

Geology around penstock site is composed on top soil and weathered tuff and erodible by water. All
excavated surface shall be protected by wet rubble masonry/shotcrete/sodding.

As discussed in chapter 4.2, provision of a surge tank is suggested to ensure i) stability of penstock for
frequency control and ii) avoidance of excessive pressure rise. Preliminary check indicates that the
diameter and the height of the surge tank will be about 10m and 65m, respectively. Additional survey
of topography and geology along the penstock line is required for further examination.
Followings are noted as the comments for the design in the Feasibility Study.
-
Alignment of the Penstock shall be straight, especially at the end portion as much as possible.
Arrangement of diameter (average 2.3 m) is recommended to first one-third : 2.5m, second onethird : 2.3 m and last one-third :2.1m.
Water Hammer (Pressure Rise) by emergency stop of turbine is not considered to design of the
Penstock. Water Hammer at the emergency closing of turbine should be calculated.
6.8
Powerhouse and Switchyard
6.8.1 Hydraulic Design

Probable flood of 100-year shall be revised to 1,000 m3/s, then the elevation of the powerhouse yard
shall be set to ensure safety against this flood.

A coffering of the powerhouse construction is difficult because of rapid river flow. Remaining of the
original ground is recommendable measure. (refer to Figure 17)
Location of the draft gate can be shifted to upstream to minimize the powerhouse structure. (refer to
Figure 16) However, if draft tube requests such length, location of draft gate cannot be shifted.
Elevation of the erection bay of P/H and the end of Access Road are set at EL. 351.75. On the other
hand, the upstream end of the tailrace wall is set at EL. 355.00. Flood water will flow into the
Powerhouse through the erection bay. A guide wall along the Access Road is required.(refer to Figure
16 & 17)
The supporting column of the overhead crane girder is about 19 m high without horizontal strut.
Detail structural analysis is needed. (refer to Figure 16)
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Figure6.8.1PowerhouseLayout
Figure6.8.2CofferingofPowerhouse
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7.
7.1
DESIGN ISSUES: HYDRO-MECHANICAL WORKS

General
Hereinafter discussed are NKs comments on the design of the hydro-mechanical works adopted in
the Feasibility Study.
7.2
Penstock
The length of standard erection piece should be longer as far as possible to minimize the number of
site welding joint. Unit pipe length should be decided from the available plate width in Indonesia.
The wider plate is preferable to make longer unit pipe.
The required plate thickness should be studied taking the local stress at saddle support into
consideration.
The method of supporting should be studied to lengthen the supporting span of penstock more than 12
m to minimize the number of concrete saddles. The ring girder support is advantageous compared
with the saddle support proposed in FS report.
According to the direction of vertical bend, a half block may be adopted for the anchor block.
Instead of trifurcation, a manifold type branch should be studied from the point of view of hydraulics
and alignment of the penstock.
Stainless steel plate should be adopted instead of stainless clad plate taking account of less
marketability of stainless clad plate.
Considering the construction time, the comparison study should be made between the erection using
winch and the direct unloading by the mobile crane, although an access road is required along the
penstock line in case of erection by mobile crane.
Taking account of the construction time, three sections should be considered for the erection of steel
penstock to shorten the duration of construction.
As for the upper part of penstock, the application of readymade steel pipe might be considerable, if
such pipe is available in Indonesia market with lower cost compared with the cost of ordered pipe.
7.3
Hydro-mechanical Equipment
7.3.1 Spillway Gate

The vertical lift gate type should be compared with the radial gate as the spillway gate.
Considering the dimensions of radial gate, the mechanical type hoist, namely the wire rope winch
seems to be economical and familiar for the Indonesian operator to maintain the equipment rather than
the hydraulic hoist.
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The gate leaf with flap gate is complicated for operation and maintenance. The flap should be
cancelled. For the river maintenance flow, it is preferable to install the required gate of capacity with
small dimensions. Or the spillway gate will be opened partially to discharge.
The box culvert should also be studied as an alternative plan of sediment flushing.
7.3.2 Raking Equipment and Trashrack

The type of raking equipment should be selected from the characteristics of trash. The disposal of
trash raked up should be well considered for the actual operation. (Intake and inlet of penstock)
The location of trashrack should be decided to prevent the trash from depositing in the bay in front of
trashrack. (Intake)
7.3.3 Intake Gate and Stoplog

Though two intake gates are installed, it seems that one gate is enough.
The water seal of gate leaf should be studied which is suitable the upstream or downstream system.
Instead of curtain wall for intake gate, the full height gate against the high water level is considerable
with three edges upstream water seal system.
From the scale of gate leaf, the mechanical hoist such as wire rope winch or spindle type hoist is
suitable instead of hydraulic hoist.
Considering the operation of intake, stoplog for intake gate will be eliminated.
7.3.4 Penstock Inlet Gate

Though the slide type of gate is selected, the supporting type of slide or wheel should be studied for
suitable type of emergency closure. Accordingly, the hoist type should also be re-examined.
The emergency closure by self-weight should be re-examined because the dead weight of gate leaf
seems to be short for overcoming against the friction during closure.
7.3.5 Draft Tube Gate

Some temporary draft tube gates should be considered if necessary during the construction period.
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8.
DESIGN ISSUES: ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS
8.1
General
Hereinafter discussed are NKs comments on the design of the electro-mechanical works adopted in
the Feasibility Study.
8.2
Type of Turbine and Number of Units
Considering the penstock length of 1,669 m in the Feasibility Study, it is considerable that type of
turbine would be changed to; i) Pelton turbine, or ii) Francis turbine with a pressure regulator
(pressure relief valve) in order to decrease the momentary pressure rise in the penstock and turbine
for economical design. However, taking account of ensuring stability of the penstock for frequency
control, it is suggested to shorten the penstock length by providing a surge tank as discussed in
chapter 4.2.
Horizontal-shaft Francis type turbine was proposed in the Feasibility Study for 207 m head and 14.5
MW output. In accordance with normal design practice, vertical-shaft Francis turbine is usually
selected for these ratings. Horizontal-shaft Francis turbine will have a disadvantage for the
powerhouse layout to arrange the required additional space for removal of the rotor and shaft
assembly from the generator.
Three (3) numbers of units are proposed in the Feasibility Study. Generally speaking, less number of
the turbine - generator units would be more economical, which depends on balance of reduction of
cost and energy. It is suggested that suitable number of units shall be confirmed along with change of
the turbine type.
8.3
Equipment Layout
8.3.1 Powerhouse
Installation Space between Uits
Referring to Drawing No. HS-20-005, there seems no sufficient space for removal of the rotor and
shaft assembly from the generator.
In case horizontal-shaft turbine is used for this project, the space between the units shall be widened
by at least 2 m and the space between Unit 3 and the powerhouse side wall by at least 2 m.
Control Room
Size of the control room is 10m x 4m. Space seems not enough. At least the size shall be doubled.
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Panels of only 14 Protection and 15 Synchronisation are shown on the drawing. However,
operator console, mimic board, programmable controller, energy meters, low voltage panels, logging
printers etc. shall be needed.
In PLNs normal practice, SCADA is to be introduced, and sometimes independent communication
room may be needed.
Swichgear Room
Size of the switchgear room is 8m x 3.65m. Space seems not enough. Panels of only Low voltage
distribution board are shown on the drawing. The spaces between such Low voltage distribution
board are at present 0.9m only. This shall be doubled.
Location/space for 11kV cubicles shall be confirmed.
8.3.2 Switchyard
Size of the switchyard is 115 x 80m. The size of the switchyard is large enough. However, if
double-pi connection (4 circuits towers) mentioned in Pre-FS Report for 150kV TL, is employed, two
more transmission line bays become necessary.
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9.
9.1
DESIGN ISSUES: TRANSMISSION LINE

General
Comparison of different options to connect the Project with the existing transmission line system in
North Sumatra was once studied by PLN. As the result, the option to provide an interconnection point
to 150 kV transmission line at Kampung Pajak (between Aek Kanopan substation and Rantau Prapat
substation) was found to be the most suitable option for PLN. The Feasibility Study Report of the
Project (Apr., 2012) envisaged a double circuit ACSR 240 mm2 150 kV transmission line of 34.5 km
length would lead from the Project to the new Kampung Pajak substation which PLN would finance
for construction.
In the Pre-Feasibility Study for 150 kV transmission line for the Project (Sep., 2012) by BNE, the
interconnection point was again studied among the alternatives, then connecting to the existing tower,
not to the new substation, at Kampung Pajak was proposed.
9.2
Transmission Line
Connecting to Porsea, Aek Kanopan, or Rantau Prapat substations will need new transmission lines of
long distance, and apparently not feasible. It is conceived that the selected option in the Feasibility
Study to provide the new Kampung Pajak substation and the Project is connected to there is
technically the best solution, even though the construction cost of the new substation becomes
necessary. Installing circuit breakers at the connecting point of the new transmission line from the
Project to the existing line is preferable for the point of view of protection and operation.
This option was by some reasons discarded in the Pre-Feasibility Study for 150 kV transmission line,
and connection to the existing tower at Kampung Pajak by Single-pi connection or Double-pi
connection was proposed.
Single-pi connection has problem in reliability of transmission, and thus not recommendable.
Meanwhile Double-pi connection requires necessity of 4 circuits, and the price of transmission line
becomes high.
Hence, it is recommended that the comparison of construction of new Kampung Pajak substation and
Double-pi connection (4 circuits towers) are to be made again for the final decision. At present, there
may be increase of demands of rural area in Kampung Pajak.
It is noted that, if the new transmission line from the Project is connected to the existing line by a
double-pi connection without circuit breakers, every stoppage of the Hasang power plant (by fault or
maintenance) may affect the existing transmission line operation.
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10.
CONSTRUCTION PLAN AND SCHEDULE
10.1 General
The Feasibility Study Report of the Project describes that the overall construction period would be 36
months (including a buffer of 3 months) assuming a start of the works on 1st January 2013. The
critical path runs through the early site establishment of access road to the tunnel portals, the timely
commencement of tunnel excavation followed by lining and finishing and connection to the cut &
cover section, water filing and commissioning.
Figure10.1.1ConstructionMasterScheduleinFeasibilityStudy
10.2 Construction Plan

Detail construction plan/method shall be prepared by the Contractor and responsibility of the
Contractor. In the Bid Documents, construction method shall be shown/suggested only outline for
evaluation and negotiation purpose. The Client has the construction plan/method in detail for some
extend.
Comments on construction of the Access Road are given in Chapter 5.
Site Facilities
-
Electricity during construction cannot be supplied from PLN system because capacity of power
supply at the site is not enough, the Contractor should be prepared generator at each work site.
On January 18, 2013, the proposed quarry site for aggregate located about 3 km far from the
Head Pond was inspected. Quality and quantity of this site are deemed to be satisfied the
requirements. Further, investigation to confirm quality, quantity and thickness of overburden by
boring is recommended.
Spoil Bank located upstream of the Intake Weir Site is rather dangerous. If land slide/slope
failure happen on Spoil Bank, slid materials come into Intake Weir, it is better to locate
downstream of Intake Weir site.(refer to Figure 10.2.1)
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Location of Spoil bank mentioned above and Site Installation are better to change.(refer to
Figure 10.2.1)
Site installation/storage areas are requested to Gate & Penstock and Electro-mechanical Works
as fabrication yard and temporary storage. Top of the spoil banks are available.(refer to Figure
10.2.1)
Figure10.2.1SiteInstallationWorks
Intake Weir
-
The construction of the dividing wall requires the coffering for foundation excavation and
concreting, although this structure might be omitted in case of change the weir location.
The right downstream toe portion of the overflow section in the first stage river diversion and
the left downstream toe portion of the overflow section in the second stage river diversion are
overlapped with cofferdam and impossible to construct. It is recommended to construct the right
downstream toe portion of the overflow section together with the left side wall of the overflow
section and the layout of the second stage coffering shall be moved to downstream. (refer to
Figure 10.2.2)
The cofferdam will be constructed to close to the excavation of the Intake Weir and foundation
of river deposit. Countermeasure for leakage water will be required, blanket embankment of
impervious materials in front of the cofferdam and/or construction of sump pits and pumping up
are recommendable measure.
For transportation of Form, Re-bar and concreting, a Tower crane or Jib crane will be needed.
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Figure10.2.2CofferingofIntakeWeir
Headrace Waterway
-
Details of inlet and outlet for the tunnel works should be clear. These will subject to the concrete
works of channel after completion of tunnel works. .(refer to Figure 10.2.3)
Figure10.2.3AccesstoHeadraceTunnel
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Transmission Line
-
When connect to the existing 150kV Transmission Line at Kampung Pajak, stop of operation of
T/L is necessary, detail discussion with PLN is recommendable.
10.3 Construction Schedule

Access Road
-
Construction periods of the access road are deemed to be short taking our comment in the
Chapter 4 into consideration and detail study is recommended. The construction of the access
Road is the first activity of the project and governs the all construction works.
Intake Weir
-
By shifting of Curtain Grout line in the Intake Weir mentioned in 4)-11), grouting period will be
free from the concreting works
Headrace Tunnel
-
Progress rates of the tunnel works in the schedule are not same as the text. Following progress
rates of tunnel works are considered to be reasonable or rather optimistic,
Excavation with supporting
Invert concrete
Sidewall concrete
: 100m/month
: 300 m/month or more
: 192m/month
Based on the above rates, the schedule of tunnel works without additional work adit is shown in
Figure 10.3.2. However, no geological risk is considered. The proposed schedule will be hardly
kept and delayed by 2-3 months.
On the other hand, an additional work adit will be constructed easily and does not require high
cost from the topography as shown in Figure 10.3.1. If the work adit is prepared, an delay by
geological risk and other reasons can be mitigated. The construction schedule with work adit is
shown in Figure 10.3.3.
Others
-
Design and fabrication schedules of the Hydro and Electro-mechanical Works shall be
considered and presented.
Schedule of the Transmission Line is not shown.
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Figure10.3.1WorkAdit
Figure10.3.2ConstructionScheduleofHeadraceTunnelwithoutWorkAdit
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Figure10.3.3ConstructionScheduleofHeadraceTunnelwithWorkAdit
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11.
COST ESTIMATE
11.1 General
The cost estimate for the Project in the Feasibility Study Report was based on a price level of the first
quarter (Q1) of 2012. The costs estimated for each item were based on quantities and unit rates, or as
a mark-up on percentage basis.
The cost estimate was provided for the main components of the direct and indirect costs as follows.
Table11.1.1SummaryofProjectCostinFeasibilityStudy
Item
Amount
(1,000 US$)
Direct Cost
Civil Works
Transmission Line
Total Direct Cost
Indirect Cost
Engineering
Insurance
Total Indirect Cost
35,745
10,411
24,948
10,350
81,454
4,073
4,073
4,260
2,840
4,073
9,246
28,564
110,018
129,398
Remark
Conti: 10% (20% for tunnel)

Conti. 10%
Conti. 10%
5% of Direct Cost
5% of Direct Cost
Provided by the Client
Provided by the Client
5% of Direct Cost
Hereinafter discussed are NKs comments on the bill of quantities and unit prices for the direct costs
adopted in the Feasibility Study, and impact to the cost estimate due to review result of design in
compliance with NKs recommendations which are described in the preceding chapters.
11.2 Bill of Quantities

11.2.1 Civil Works
In the Feasibility Study, the bill of quantities are prepared for the main items only such as excavation,
embankment, concrete works and roads and pavement. Other miscellaneous items are not counted. It
is suggested that 10% will be added to the cost of the civil work to cover the costs of those
miscellaneous items.
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11.2.2 Hydro-mechanical Works

Penstock
There are inconsistency in thickness and tonnage of the steel pipe among Table 12-12, Table 16-3 and
the bill of quantities in Annex 16 of the Feasibility Study. Basis for calculating the design head
(including pressure rise) and the thickness need to be clarified for justifying the tonnage.
Hydro-mechanical Equipment
In the Feasibility Study, the estimate of weight of the different type of gates was based on empirical
formulae presented in Design of Hydraulic Gate (by Paulo C.F. Erbisti, 2004). The weight of the
moving part of the gate is given as a function of the parameters of B2hH, where B and h are the span
and the gate height respectively, and H is the head on the sill.
Although the expression are based on statistical data and thus they are not for premise estimates of
gates, they are recognized be adequate to be adopted in the feasibility study stage.
11.2.3 Electro-mechanical Works

As described in 11.4.3, the cost estimate of the electro-mechanical work was obtained on the
published diagram based on statistic data, and thus no detailed bill of quantities was prepared.
11.2.4 Transmission Line

Length of the transmission line is assumed at 34.5km in the Feasibility Study.
11.3 Unit Price

Quotations of cost estimate for respective component of the direct cost should be asked to the
contractors / manufacturers. The following opinions are based on NKs past experiences in similar
projects in Indonesia and/or South-East Asia.
11.3.1 Civil Works

Main unit rates applied in the Feasibility Study for the cost estimate of the civil works are seen in the
following table, with NKs assessment.
Table11.3.1MainUnitPricesforCivilWorksinFeasibilityStudy
Item
Open excavation , soil
Open excavation , rock
Tunnel excavation
Backfill
Structural concrete
Formwork
Reinforcement steel
Unit
US$/m3
US$/m3
US$/m3
US$/m3
US$/m3
US$/m2
US$/ton
Unit Prices in F/S

4.5
18.0
65.0
8.0
75.0 85.0
10.0 65.0
1,750
Assessment
Sufficient
Sufficient
Adequate
Sufficient
Adequate
Sufficient
Adequate
Source: based on NKs experience

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The unit prices set in the Feasibility Study seem to be sufficient or adequate.
11.3.2 Hydro-mechanical Works

A unit price of US$ 5,500 per ton steel was adopted in the Feasibility Study for the cost estimate of
the penstock. This seems to be adequate.
A unit price of US$ 12,000 per ton steel was basically adopted for the cost estimate of other hydromechanical works. This seems to be sufficient.
11.3.3 Electro-mechanical Works

The cost estimate of the generating equipment in the Feasibility Study was based on the diagram
which had been presented in a publication of International Water Power and Dam Construction (Feb.
2009). This diagram is often quoted in feasibility studies as this allows a close cost estimation of
E&M equipment which are accommodated in powerhouses. The compiled data in the diagrams
correspond to the E&M equipment which include turbine, governors, valves, cooling and drainage
water systems, cranes, workshops, generators, transformers, earthing systems, control equipment,
telecommunication systems and auxiliary systems.
Although the diagram are based on statistical data and thus they are not for premise estimates of E&M
equipment, they are recognized be adequate to be adopted in the feasibility study stage.
11.3.4 Transmission Line

Both the unit prices of 0.3 million US$/km adopted in the Feasibility Study and 0.349 million
US$/km adopted in the Pre-Feasibility Study for 150kV transmission line seem to be sufficient for the
single pi option. For the double pi option, it is reasonable to adopt 150% of these prices.
It is noted that those unit prices are assumed to include the cost for land acquisition also.
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11.4 Impact to Cost Estimate due to Design Review

Impact to the direct cost due to review result of design in compliance with NKs recommendations
which are described in the preceding chapters are roughly estimated and summarized as below.
Table11.4.1ImpacttoDirectCostduetoDesignReview
Item
Description
Cost Impact
(US$ m.)
3.23
1.
Miscellaneous Item of Civil Works for F/S Design
2.
2.1
NKs Recommendation on Design

Access Road
Re-route
Pavement width
Location change
Removal of boulders
Debris barrier
Protective measures for piping
Protective measures for landslide
Foundation treatment
Deletion of stoplog and additional gates
Steel lining of flushing channel
Headrace Tunnel
Tunnelling in soft materials
Permeability in tuff layer
Work adit
Headrace Channel incl. Cut & Cover
Cutting slope to gentle
Crossing structures
Slope protection
Extension of access road
Guide wall of spillway
Spillway section type
Penstock
New provision of surge tank
Steel penstock
Slope protection
Powerhouse & Swichyard
Location of draft gate
Top elevation of tailrace wall and erection bay access
Enlargement of powerhouse
Enlargement of switchyard in case of double pi T/L
Addition of switchgear equip. in case of double pi T/L
Transmission Line
Double Pi T/L
Sub-total 2
Total 1 & 2
Total of Direct Cost
17.01
98.47
1)
2)
2.2
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
2.3
1)
2)
3)
4)
2.4
1)
2)
3)
2.5
1)
2)
2.6
1)
2)
3)
4)
2.7
1)
2)
3)
2.8
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
2.9
1)
Chapter
in this Report
11.2.1
0.20
-0.30
5.2
5.2
0.20
0.06
0.01
0.10
1.00
6.2.1
6.2.2
6.2.2
6.2.4
6.2.5
0.10
0.03
0.05
0.03
6.3.1
6.3.1
6.3.3
6.3.3
0.10
0.05
0.50
6.4.1
6.4.2
10.3
1.10
0.50
6.5.1
6.5.2
0.10
0.20
0.10
0.20
6.6.1
6.6.1
6.6.2
6.6.2
3.00
0.00
0.10
4.2.3
4.2.3
6.7.1
0.10
-0.09
0.02
0.10
0.04
1.00
6.8.1
6.8.2
6.8.2
8.3.1
8.3.2
8.3.2
5.18
13.78
9.2

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Total project cost to which the above cost impacts are incorporated is as below.
Table11.4.2SummaryofProjectCost
Item
Amount
(mil. US$)
Direct Cost
Civil Works
Transmission Line
Total Direct Cost
Indirect Cost
Engineering
Insurance
Total Indirect Cost
46.53
10.46
25.95
15.53
98.47
4.92
4.92
4.26
2.84
4.92
11.17
33.03
131.50
154.67
Remark
F/S + Item 1 + 2 (except below)

F/S + Item 2.3 3)
F/S + Item 2.8 6)
F/S + Item 2.9 1)
5% of Direct Cost
5% of Direct Cost
Same as F/S
Same as F/S
5% of Direct Cost
Same assumption as F/S
Same assumption as F/S
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12.
PROJECT FEASIBILITY
12.1 Financial Analysis

Reasonable assumptions are set forth in the Financial Analysis discussed in the Feasibility Study
Report (FS, Figure 17-2: Financial analysis for the base case of Hasang HPP, Chapter 17, Volume 2).
Because it does not fully disclose breakdowns of cash inflows and cash outflows, the review work
could not perfectly trace the original computations. However, difference between the original
computation in FS and in the Review Work can be regarded as negligible small.
Notwithstanding the appreciation of the financial analysis above, the investor should pay attentions to
the following issues:
(1) Exchange rate used in FS need be updated;
Currency
FS
Reviewed (as of February 2013)
Indonesian Rupee (IDR): 1 USD =
8,550 IDR
9,740 IDR
EURO (EUR): 1 USD =
0.72 EUR
0.76 EUR
Japanes Yen (YEN): 1 USD =
80 JPY
93 JPY
(2) Possible cost increase need be considered;

Project Cost
FS
Direct Cost without IDC =
Suggestion in Review Work
110.0 USDm
(3) Possible energy decrease need be considered;

Hydrology & Energy
FS
131.5 USDm
Caution in Review Work
Hydrology =
Average
Moderate
Saleable Annual Mean =
275.5 GWh
249.0 GWh
Annual Revenue (USc7.5/kWh) =
20.7 USDm
18.7 USDm
12.2 Possible Effects from Cost and Energy Change

The possible cost increase discussed in Section 11.4 may affect the project profitability; the return on
equity (ROE) may go down by 3% from the FS Base Case. If one considers the possible energy
decrease discussed Section 4.3.4, ROE further may go down by 2 %. As a whole, there is a concern
that ROE might nose down to the level the investors can hardly accept, as demonstrated below.
Analysis Cases
Cost w/o IDC
Energy
Tariff
ROE
FS Base Case
110.0 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
14.4%*
Cost Up
131.5 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
11.2%
131.5 USDm
249.0 GWh
USc7.5/kWh
9.4%
FS has computed ROE (return on equity) to be 14.92% for the base case with USc7.5/kWh tariff, while the
Review Work does 14.4% under the same assumptions.
NipponKoeiCo.,Ltd.
78|Page
In order to compensate such possible profitability decrease, the investors should examine higher tariff
for energy sales, assuming 15.0% of the required ROE:
Analysis Cases
Cost w/o IDC
Energy
Tariff
ROE
Cost Up
131.5 USDm
275.5 GWh
USc9.06/kWh
15.0%
131.5 USDm
249.0 GWh
USc10.03/kWh
15.0%
The financial stream is re-analyzed as demonstrated in Table 12.2.1. This financial stream
corresponds to both of the Cost Up case and the Cost Up & Energy Less case above with the new
average tariffs of USc 9.0625/kWh and USc 10.0266/kWh respectively.
Table12.2.1UpdatedFinancialStreamwithHigherTariff
Year CAPEX
OPEX
Cost Revenue
Equity
Debt
Outstanding
Loan begin Interest
Repay
Outstanding
Loan end
Deprec
Gross
Income
Profit
ROE
65.75
65.75
21.90
46.93
43.86
3.07
46.93
-68.82
Tax
-21.89
39.45
39.45
13.15
31.44
73.24
5.13
78.36
-44.58
-13.14
26.30
26.30
8.75
24.26
95.91
6.71
102.62
-33.01
-8.75
1.94
1.94
24.96
102.62
7.18
10.26
92.36
7.31
8.53
2.13
3.45
1.98
1.98
24.96
92.36
6.47
10.26
82.10
7.31
9.21
2.30
3.96
2.02
2.02
24.96
82.10
5.75
10.26
71.83
7.31
9.88
2.47
4.47
2.06
2.06
24.96
71.83
5.03
10.26
61.57
7.31
10.56
2.64
4.97
2.10
2.10
24.96
61.57
4.31
10.26
51.31
7.31
11.24
2.81
5.48
-13.6%
2.14
2.14
24.96
51.31
3.59
10.26
41.05
7.31
11.92
2.98
5.99
-8.0%
10
2.18
2.18
24.96
41.05
2.87
10.26
30.79
7.31
12.59
3.15
6.50
-3.9%
11
2.23
2.23
24.96
30.79
2.16
10.26
20.52
7.31
13.27
3.32
7.00
-0.7%
12
2.27
2.27
24.96
20.52
1.44
10.26
10.26
7.31
13.94
3.48
7.51
1.7%
13
2.32
2.32
24.96
10.26
0.72
10.26
0.00
7.31
14.61
3.65
8.01
3.7%
14
2.36
2.36
24.96
7.31
15.28
3.82
18.78
6.8%
15
2.41
2.41
24.96
7.31
15.24
3.81
18.74
8.8%
16
2.46
2.46
24.96
7.31
15.19
3.80
18.71
10.3%
17
2.51
2.51
24.96
7.31
15.14
3.78
18.67
11.3%
18
2.56
2.56
24.96
7.31
15.09
3.77
18.63
12.1%
2.61
9.33
16.64
6.57
0.74
0.19
7.13
12.4%
20
2.66
2.66
24.96
6.57
15.73
3.93
18.37
12.9%
21
2.72
2.72
24.96
6.57
15.68
3.92
18.33
13.3%
22
2.77
2.77
24.96
6.57
15.62
3.91
18.29
13.7%
23
2.83
2.83
24.96
6.57
15.57
3.89
18.25
13.9%
24
2.88
2.88
24.96
22.08
5.52
16.56
14.1%
25
2.94
2.94
24.96
22.02
5.51
16.52
14.3%
26
3.00
3.00
24.96
21.97
5.49
16.47
14.5%
27
3.06
3.06
24.96
21.91
5.48
16.43
14.6%
28
3.12
3.12
24.96
21.84
5.46
16.38
14.7%
29
3.18
3.18
24.96
21.78
5.45
16.34
14.8%
30
3.25
3.25
24.96
21.72
5.43
16.29
14.8%
31
3.31
3.31
24.96
21.65
5.41
16.24
14.9%
32
3.38
3.38
24.96
21.59
5.40
16.19
15.0%
33
3.45
3.45
24.96
21.52
5.38
16.14
15.0%
78.70
216.92
740.61
326.69
118.28
350.99
19
TTL
6.72
138.22
43.79
102.62
777.42
54.42
102.62
689.70
142.57
12.3 Recommendations in Financial Analysis

It is recommended that the financial analyses be updated with the latest investment plan (e.g., the
most likely loan conditions and the equity investment) based on the levelized tariff concept (Volume 2
Part 3 of RfP) to assess and confirm the profitability of the Project. It is also recommended that such
financial analysis updates include balance sheets, profit and loss statements, cash flow statements, and
estimated dividends paid out, so that more precise financial indicators and the investors return can be
presumed.
NipponKoeiCo.,Ltd.
79|Page
13.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
As a result of review on the existing studies of the Project, this Report concludes that;
-
Average Scenario, which was applied as the inflow duration curve at the Hasang weir site in the
Feasibility Study seems to be overestimated. This might cause risk of overestimation of
expected annual energy production. It is recommended that the Moderate Scenario shall be
applied instead. Based on this, the salable annual mean energy of the Project will be 249.0
GWh, which is of about 10% decrease compared to 275.5 GWh in the Feasibility Study.
Some design considerations, which were not taken into account in the Feasibility Study, are
required to ensure technical feasibility of the Project. One of the most critical issues is
unbalance of 1,669 m long penstock against 207m head in the Feasibility Study, which may
hinder stable speed regulation, and may cause excessive pressure rise in the penstock. It is
recommended to consider a surge tank to be constructed between the head tank and the
powerhouse to overcome this issue. The other issue is type of transmission line. Single-pi
connection has problem in reliability of transmission, and thus not recommendable. It is
recommended to adopt the double-pi connection instead.
Taking account of those and other design considerations in the Report, the project cost without
IDC will be 131.5 US$m which is about 20% increase compared to 110.0 US$m in the
Feasibility Study.
The possible energy decrease and cost increase above may cause profitability decrease. To
compensate this, higher tariff should be examined.
This Report recommends the following actions to be conducted.

-
To estimate likely variation of annual and monthly energy generation outputs, the observed
daily flow records at the Pulao Dogom station from 2000 to date shall be analyzed for prediction
of monthly energy generation through in-depth review and scrutiny of the flow data.
To confirm possibility of landslide at the de-sander site and the powerhouse site, detailed survey
shall be conducted. The first step shall be site reconnaissance to clarify the evidence of the
landslides. If certain evidences are found, further investigation such as some more detailed
topo-mapping and drilling investigation with laboratory test and monitoring shall be conducted
as the second step for proper measures.
To examine the optimum layout of the penstock and the surge tank, additional topographic
survey and geological investigation shall be conducted along the newly proposed penstock
alignment.
To confirm the optimal selection of type and number of the units of turbine-generator,
comparative study shall be conducted.
NipponKoeiCo.,Ltd.
80|Page
ANNEX
COMMENTS ON TECHNICAL PROPOSAL BY POSCO ENGINEERING
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
POSCOs Proposal
100-yer frequency flood is estimated at
713m3/s.
1-year frequency flood is used for the river
diversion.
Locations of the intake weir and power
intake are adjusted.
Desander is composed of 2 sets of basin.
Inlet of the headrace tunnel is shifted to the
mountain side.
Alignment of the headrace tunnel is
adjusted to shorten the cut & cover section.
Dimension of excavation section of the
head race tunnel is reduced.
Rock support class ratio is changed.
Work adit is not considered for tunnel
construction.
The head pond is shifted to the direction to
the river.
11
Spillway of the head pond discharge the

water to the direction of opposite side.
12
There is no description on penstock

stability.
There is no description on pressure rise for
the penstock.
Powerhouse dimensions are the same as the
Feasibility Study.
13
14
15
Daily discharge data in the Feasibility Study

was used without additional analysis.
NipponKoeiCo.,Ltd.
NKs Comment
This seems to be underestimated as
explained in Chap. 2.2 in this Report.
Common practices suggest to adopt 2- to 5year frequency flood, as explained in Chap.
2.2 in this Report.
Acceptable as explained in Chap. 6.2.
Acceptable as described in Chap. 6.3 in this
Report.
This is acceptable as explained in Chap. 3.4
in this Report.
This seems to be possible but need more
consideration. NK did not observe the core
of the additional bore hole.
This seems to be acceptable.
This seems to be acceptable.
Provision of the work adit is suggested as
explained in Chap. 10.3. in this Report.
This seems to be possible but need more
consideration. Original ground lines and
assumed rock lines should be put in the
sections so that design adequacy can be
checked.
Maybe need more consideration. NK does
not have sufficient knowledge on the site
conditions there.
Check of penstock stability and required
GD2 should be included.
Check of the water hammer analysis with
required GD2 should be included.
Powerhouse dimensions in the Feasibility
Study are not sufficient, as explained in
Chap. 8.3 in the Report.
Daily discharge in the Feasibility Study is
overestimated as explained in Chap. 2.3 in
this Report.
81|Page

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CONSULTING SERVICES UP TO PPA CONCLUSION

REVIEW REPORT ON EXISTING STUDIES

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Hasang Pjt Site

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

River maintenance flow

Theoretical Mean Annual Energy

Available Maximum Annual Energy

Station Loss (2% of 6.)

Saleable Mean Annual Energy

Intake Weir and Power Intake

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Increase of 100-yr flood

Protective measures for piping

Intake Channel and De-sander

Deletion of stoplog and additional

Steel lining of flushing channel

Permeability in tuff layer

Headrace Channel incl. Cut &

Head Pond and Spillway

intake. It is recommended to construct some debris barrier

Excavation slopes of the cut and cover section and of the

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Powerhouse & Swichyard

Location of draft gate

Enlargement of switchyard in case of

6. CONSTRUCTION PLAN AND SCHEDULE

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Source: NK based on Feasibility Study

Cost w/o IDC

Cost Up & Energy Less

Cost w/o IDC

Cost Up & Energy Less

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

9. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

This Report recommends the following actions to be conducted.

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

REVIEW REPORT ON EXISTING STUDIES

POWER GENERATION ...................................................................................

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

DESIGN ISSUES: ACCESS ROAD ................................................................ 47

DESIGN ISSUES: CIVIL WORKS .................................................................

DESIGN ISSUES: HYDRO-MECHANICAL WORKS ................................

DESIGN ISSUES: ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS ............................

DESIGN ISSUES: TRANSMISSION LINE ................................................... 66

CONSTRUCTION PLAN AND SCHEDULE .................................................

COST ESTIMATE .............................................................................................

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ............................................... 80

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Layout Alternatives in Previous Studies.................................................... 2

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Relationship between Runoff Coefficient and Mean Annual Basin

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Typical Section of Spillway ..................................................................... 59

Upstream View of Headworks Site ......................................................... 21

Consulting Services up to PPA Conclusion for Hasang Hydropower Plant Project

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval was obtained from Toba