7.

PROBABILITY
7.1.1 Sample Space and Events
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h

Experiment is an activity that we carry out to observe a result.

Outcome is the result of an experiment that we observed.
Sample space is set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in an experiment
The sample space is denoted by the letter S.
Event is the set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in the sample space that we wish to get.
An event can be denoted by any capital letters except S .
n(S) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the sample space.
n(A) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the event A.

Task A : Determine the number of possible outcomes in the sample space and the event by listing the outcomes.
1. An experiment is conducted by rolling a fair dice
2. In an experiment where a fair coin is tossed twice,
once. If A is the event of getting an even score,
HT represents an outcome where the first toss
(a) express, in set notation,
results in a head and the second toss results in a
(i) the sample space,
tail. If B is the event of obtaining at least one
(ii) the event A,
tail,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
(a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space,
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event A.
(ii) the event B,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
Answer : (a)(i) S = {
}
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event B.
(a)(ii) A = {
}
Answer : (a)(i) S =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(a)(ii) B =
(b)(ii) n(A) =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(b)(ii) n(B) =
3. A card is picked randomly from the following cards.

4. In an experiment, two numbers are randomly

chosen, the first from set A = {3 , 5 , 6] and the
second from set B = { 2 , 4 , 8}. If D is the event of
getting a total score at least 10,
(a) express, in set notation, [Note : (x , y)
represents an outcome where x A and y B]
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event D,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event D.

If C is the event of obtaining vowel,

(a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C.
Answer : (a)(i)

S=

Answer : (a)(i) S =

(a)(ii) C =

(a)(ii) D =

(b)(i)

n(S) =

(b)(i) n(S) =

(b)(ii) n(C) =

(b)(ii) n(D) =

Answers: 1. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; n(S) = 6; n(A) = 3

2. S = {H,E,B,A,T}; C = {E,A}; n(S) = 5; n(C) = 2

Probability

2. S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}; B = {HT,TH,TT}; n(S) = 4; n(B) = 3

4. S = {(3,2),(3,4),(3,8),(5,2),(5,4),(5,8),(6,2),(6,4),(6,8)} ; n(S) = 9
D = {(3,8),(5,8),(6,4),(6,8)} n(D) = 4

Task B: Determine the number possible outcomes in the sample space and the event without listing the outcomes.
1. A box contains 3 black balls, 2
2. A box contains cards of which
3. The table shows a set of
green balls and 5 red balls. A
each card is written with an
numbers. A number is chosen at
ball is drawn at random from
alphabet from the word
random from the set.
the box. If A represents the
TAMBAHAN. A card is
10 11 15
event not getting the black
drawn at random from the box.
17 22 19
balls, determine
If B represents the event of
16 25 18
(a) n(S),
obtaining vowel card, determine
If C represents the event of
(b) n(A).
(a) n(S),
choosing number that is multiple
(b) n(B).
of 5, determine
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(a) n(S),
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(C).
(b) n(A) =
(b) n(B) =
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(C) =
4. There are 14 fans in a hall, each
controlled by a switch. It is
known that four fans are spoilt.
Two switches are turned on at
random in an experiment.
Given that D is the event where
only one of the two fans works,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).

5. The letters from the word

6. A box contains 7 blue marbles
SUKAN are to be used to form
and 5 yellow marbles where all
a five-lettered code. All the
the marbles are of the same size.
possible codes are written in
Two marbles are drawn from the
cards and put in a box. A card is
box randomly. If F is the event
drawn from the box. If E
getting two marbles of the same
represents the event of getting
colour, determine
code which has both the vowels
(a) n(S),
next to each other, determine
(b) n(F).
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).
Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(F) =

(b) n(D) =
(b) n(E) =
7. Four-digit numbers are to be
formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, 7
and 9 without repetitions of
digits. All the numbers that can
be formed are written in small
pieces of papers and put into a
hat. One number is chosen at
random from the hat. If G is the
event getting even number,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(G).

8. A 4-member committee of a
club is chosen from 4 boys and
3 girls. Each of the possible
4-member committee formed is
written on a card and put into a
box. One of the cards is drawn
at random from the box. If H
represents the event of
obtaining a committee that has
equal number of boys and girls,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(H).

9. Code words are to be formed

using all the letters of the word
COLUMN. Each of the
possible code words is written
in a small strip of paper and put
into a bag. One of the code
words is chosen from the bag at
random. If L represents the
event of obtaining code word
that begins with a consonant,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(L).

Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(H) =

(b) n(L) =

Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(G) =
Answers : 1. (a) 10 (b) 7
7. (a) 120 (b) 72

Probability

2. (a) 8 (b) 3
8. (a) 35 (b) 18

3. (a) 9 (b) 3
4. (a) 91 (b) 40
9. (a) 720 (b) 480

5. (a) 120 (b) 48

6. (a) 66 (b) 31

7.1.2 Probability of an Event

(a)
(b)

(c)
(d)
(e)

The probability that an event A occurs is represented by P(A)

number of outcomes in A
n A

By classical definition, P A
, where 0 P A 1
number of outcomes in S
n S

If P(A) = 0, then the event is sure to fail (or is a certain impossibility).

If P(A) = 1. then the event is sure to succeed (or is an absolute surety)
The probability that an event A does not occur is represented by P(A) where P(A) = 1 P(A)

Task A : Determine the Probability of Simple Events.

1. A bag contains 7 red balls, 5
2. A card is picked randomly from
green balls and 6 pink balls. A
a pack of cards which contains
ball is picked at random. Find
4 red cards and 6 yellow cards.
the probability that a red ball is
Find the probability that a
picked.
yellow card is picked.

3. A letter is selected at random

from the word PHYSICS.
Find the probability of selecting
letter S.
Answer :

Answer :

Answer :
A = Event of selecting letter S

R = Event red ball is picked

n(R) = 7,
n(S) = 18
n( R )
P( R)
n( S )
7

18

Y = Event of picking yellow card

n(A) =
n(Y) =
n(S) =
n(S) =
P ( A)

n(Y )
P (Y )
n( S )

3
5

4. A fair dice is flipped once. What

is the probability of obtaining a
score greater than 4?
Answer :

n( A)
n( S )

5. Identical cards numbered from

20 to 40, are put in a bag. A card
is drawn randomly from the
bag. Find the probability that
the number on the card is a
prime number.

B = Event of obtaining a score

greater than 4.

2
7

6. Each of the letters from the

word TAMBAHAN is written
on identical cards and then put
in a box. If a card is drawn at
random from the box, calculate
the probability that the card
drawn is a vowel.

n(B) =
n(S) =

1
3

Probability

4
21

3
8

7. A box containing all the letters

of the word PROBABILITY
written on identical cards. If
one card is drawn at random
from the box, find the
probability that the card drawn
shows a consonant.

8. A card is drawn at random from a

bag which contains 26 identical
cards written with all the
different letters of the alphabet.
Find the probability that the card
drawn shows a letter from the
word BAHASA.

7
11

2
13

9. A fair dice is rolled twice.

Calculate the probability of
getting numbers with a sum
more than 8.

5
18

Task B : Determine the probability of events involving the idea of permutation and combination.
1. All the different three-digit numbers formed from
2. Six-letter codes are formed by using all the letters in
the digits 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repetition are
the word HITUNG. Each code is written on
written in small pieces of papers and then put in a
identical ping pong ball and placed in a box.
hat.
(a) Determine the total number of different six-letter
(a) Determine the total number of three-digit
codes contained in the box.
numbers in the hat.
(b) If one of the ping pong balls is drawn randomly,
(b) If one of the number is drawn randomly from
find the probability that the ping pong ball is
the hat, calculate the probability that the
written with the code that ends with vowel.
number is less than 300.

(a) 720 (b) 1

3

(a) 24 (b) 4

3. A four-member committee is to be formed from a

group of 7 male and 6 female candidates.
(a) Determine the total number of different
Committees that can be formed.
(b) If one of the possible committees in (a) is to
be selected at random, find the probability that
the committee selected is made up of 2 males
and 2 females.

4. A combination of four letters is to be formed by

choosing letters from the word PERANCIS.
(a) Determine the total number of different
combinations that can be formed.
(b) If one of the possible combinations in (a) is to be
picked, calculate the probability that the
combination does not have vowel.

63
(a) 715 (b) 143

Probability

1
(a) 70 (b) 14

7.2

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

(a)
(b)

If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then only one or the other event can occur at time.
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = { } ( or A B = ) or
(ii) if n(A B) = 0 or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 0 or
(iv) if P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
Two events A and B are exhaustive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = S
(ii) if n(A B) = n(S) or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 1

(c)

Task A : Determine whether events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

1. A fair coin is flipped twice. Events A and B are
2. A fair dice is rolled. Event C is the event a score of
defined below :
less than 6 and event D is the event a score of more
A = Event where both flips show heads
than 2. State, with a reason, whether events C and D
B = Event where the two flips result in at least a
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
tail
(b) are exhaustive events.
State, with a reason, whether events A and B are (a)
mutually exclusive events,
(b) exhaustive events.

(a) Yes, because (b) Yes, because

(a) No, because (b) Yes, because

3. The sample space S is given by

S = { x : 0 < x < 21, x is an integer }.
Event X and Y are defined as follows:
X = { x : x are even integers }
Y = { x : x are integers which are multiple of 3 }
By finding P(X), P(Y) and P(X Y), determine
whether events X and Y
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.

4. The sample space, S, and the events V and W are

defined as follows :
S = Set of code words formed from all the letters of
the word MAS without repetition
V = Set of code words that begin and end with
consonants
W = Set of code words that begin with a vowel and
end with a consonant.
By finding P(V), P(W) and P(V W), determine
whether events V and W
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.

(a) No, because (b) No, because

Probability

(a) Yes, because (b) No, because

Task B : Determine the probability of the events below.

1. A box contains 5 red, 3 yellow
2. A card is picked randomly from
and 4 green marbles. A marble
the cards below.
is drawn randomly from the
O U T C O M E S
box. Find the probability that
the colour of the marble is
Find the probability of getting a
yellow or green.
card with a consonant or a letter
O.

7
12

4. A number is chosen at random

from the set {1, 2, , 20}.
Find the probability that the
number is a multiple of 4 or a
multiple of 7.

3
4

5. A bag contains 5 blue pens, 2 red

pens and 1 green pen. A pen is
picked at random from the bag.
Find the probability of getting a
blue or a green pen.

7
20

7. Nine cards are written with the

letters of the word STATISTIC.
If a card is selected randomly,
find the probability that the card
has the letter T or a vowel.

9
10

6.

A card is picked randomly from

the cards above. Find the
probability of getting a card
with digit 3 or digit 5.

3
4

8. Muthu chooses a number

randomly from a set S where
S = { x : 10 x 20 , x is an
integer}.
Find the probability that the
number is a prime number or a
multiple of 5.

2
3

Probability

3. On a rack, there are 6 Science

books, 12 Mathematics books
and 2 History books. A book is
to be chosen randomly from the
rack. Calculate the probability
of choosing a Science book or a
Mathematics book.

7
11

5
7

9. A fair dice is rolled once. Find

the probability that the dice
shows an odd number or a
number more than 5.

2
3

7.3

Probability of Independent Events

(a)

If events A and B are independent, then the outcome of event A does not affect the occurrence of the
outcome of event B and vice versa.
If A and B are two independent events, then P(A B) = P(A) P(B).
If A, B and C are three independent events, then P(A B C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)
Examples of independent events A and B:
(i) Case 1 : Experiment : Tossing a fair coin and rolling a fair dice.
A = Event of getting head
B = Event of getting prime number
(ii) Case 2 : Experiment : Rolling a fair dice twice.
A = Event of getting even number from the first roll
B = Event of getting even number from the second roll
(iii) Case 3 : Experiment : A coin is tossed and a card is picked
A = Event of getting tail
B = Event of picking a diamond card
A tree diagram is very useful in helping us to answer questions that involve independent events

(b)

(c)
(d)

(e)

Task A : Determine the probability of the events below.

1. A fair coin and a fair dice are
2. The probabilities of Thomas
tossed simultaneously.
passing in the English test and
Determine the probability of
2
1
Science test are
and
obtaining a tail and a number
3
4
greater than 4.
respectively. Calculate the
probability that he will pass in
Answer :
both test.
A = getting a tail
B = getting a number greater
than 4
1
1
P ( A)
, P( B)
2
3
P ( A and B ) P ( A B )
P ( A) P ( B )
1 1

2 3
1
1
6

6
4. The probability that a defective
5. The probability that a shooter
bulb produced from a factory is
3
hits the target is
. For 2
2
5
. If Jack buys two bulbs,
7
shots, find the probability that
find the probability that he will
he will fail to hit the target both
get two good bulbs.
times.

Probability

3. In a certain region, it is observed

that the probability that will rain
2
in a day is
. Find the
5
probability that it will rain for 2
days.

4
25

6. There are 9 pens in a pencil box

of which 5 are red. If two pens
are chosen randomly, one by
one with replacement, find the
probability that both pens are
not red.

25
49

16
81

4
25

Task B : Determine probability by using Tree Diagram.

1. Ali shoots two arrows. The probability of Ali hitting
3
the bulls eye with each shot is
. By drawing a
5
tree diagram, find the probability of Ali hitting the
bulls eye at least once.
Answer :
A = event hitting the bulls eye
A/ = event not hitting the bulls eye

3
5

2
5

Answer :
C = event cycling to school
C/ = event not cycling to school

possible
outcomes
A

AA

2
5
3
5

A/
A

AA/
A/A

2
5

A/

A/A

3
5

2. There is a 30% chance that Leela will cycle to school

in a school day. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
probability that out of any two school days, Leela
will cycle to school in only one day.

possible
outcomes

A/

first shot

first day

second day

second shot

P(hit bulls eye at least once)

= P(AA) + P(AA/) + P(A/A)
3 3 3 2 2 3
=
5 5 5 5 5 5
21
=
25
0.42

3. A box contains 4 red cards and 3 green cards. Two

cards are drawn at random, one after another
without replacement. By drawing a tree diagram,
find the probability that both the cards are of
different colour.

Probability

4. Box A contains 1 black marble and 5 white marbles.

Box B contains 4 black marbles and 3 white
marbles. A marble is picked at random from box A
and box B. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
probability that both of the marbles are of the same
colour.

19
42

4
7

5 A bag contains 5 black marbles and 3 white marbles.

Two marbles are drawn at random, one after another
from the bag without replacement. By drawing a tree
diagram, find the probability that both of the marbles
are of the same colour.

6. Envelop P contains 5 cards labeled as X, X, Y, Y,

Y whereas envelop Q contains 6 cards labeled
as X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y. A card is picked at random
from envelop P and envelop Q. By drawing a tree
diagram, find the probability that both of the
cards are of different letters.

13
30

13
28

7. A fair dice is rolled three times. By drawing a tree

diagram, find the probability that the number 4 is
obtained only once.

Probability

8. The probability of obtaining a spoilt orange from a

1
basket is
. If three oranges are selected, find the
4
probability that only an orange is spoilt.

25
72

7.4

27
64

Past Years Actual SPM Questions

Task : Answer all the questions below.

1. SPM 2004 (No.24 / Paper 1)
A box contains 6 white marbles and k black
marbles. If a marble is picked randomly from the
box, the probability of getting a black marble is
3
. Find the value of k.
[3 marks]
5

2. SPM 2005 (No. 24 / Paper 1)

The following table shows the number of coloured
cards in a box
Colour
Number of Cards
Black
5
Blue
4
Yellow
3
Two cards are drawn at random from the box. Find
the probability that both cards are of the same
colour.
[3 marks]

19
66

k=9

3. SPM 2006 (No. 23 / Paper 1)

The probability that Hamid qualifies for the final of a
2
track event is
while the probability that Mohan
5
1
qualifies is
. Find the probability that
3
(a) both of them qualify for the final,
(b) only one of them qualifies for the final.
[ 3 marks]

Probability

4. SPM 2008 (No. 24 / Paper 1)

The probability of Sarah being chosen as a

3
while the probability of
5
7
Aini being chosen is
. Find the probability
12

school prefect is

that
(a) neither of them is chosen as a school
prefect,
(b) only one of them is chosen as a school
prefect.
[4 marks]

10

2
(a) 15

7.5

7
(b) 15

29
(a) 1
6 (b) 60

Enhanced Exercise with Questions of SPM Format

Task : Answer all the questions below.

1. A bag contains 6 blue marbles and k red marbles. If
a marble is picked randomly from the bag, the

2. Two dice, one white and one black, are rolled

together. Calculate the probability that the score

on the white dice is twice the score on the black
dice.

3
probability of picking a red marble is . Find the
5
value of k.

1
12

3. A box contains 40 marbles. Some are green and

some are red. If a marble is drawn at random from
the box, the probability that a green marble drawn
is

2
. Calculate
5

(a) the number of red marbles in the box,

(b) the number of red marbles that have to be
added to the box such that the probability to
15
draw a red marble becomes
.
23

Probability

4. Bag I contains 2 blue marbles and 6 black marbles

while bag II contains 3 blue marbles and 4 black
marbles. If a marble is chosen at random from each
bag, calculate the probability that
(a) both the marbles are black,
(b) the marble from bag I is blue and the marble
from bag II is black.
(c) At least one of the marbles chosen is black.

11

(a) 24 (b) 6
5. Two six-faced unbiased dice are rolled together.
Calculate the probability that
(a) the sum of two numbers is 8.
(b) The difference of two numbers is 5,
(c) The sum of two numbers is 8 or The
difference of two numbers is 5.

(a)

5
36

(b)

1
18

(c)

3
7

(b)

1
7

(c)

25
28

6. In a soccer match between team A and team B, the

result can be a draw or a win for team A or a win for
team B. The probability that team A and team B will
win are

1
1
and respectively. In two matches,
3
2

calculates the probability that team A will win once

and draw once.

7
36

7. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing

3 black marbles, 4 green marbles and 5 white
marbles.
(a) What is the probability of drawing a black or a
green marble?
(b) What is the probability of drawing neither a
black nor a white marble?

Probability

(a)

1
18

8. Box C contains marbles of which 4 are black and 6

are yellow. Two marbles are drawn at random, one
after another with replacement. Determine the
probability that
(a) both the marbles are black.
(b) the two marbles in different colour.
(c) at least one of the marbles is yellow.

12

(a)

7
12

(b)

4
21
(a) 25
(b) 12
25 (c) 25

1
3

9. At Halims shop, there are 5 refrigerators, P, Q, R, S 10. The probability of obtaining the number 4 when a
and T and 4 washing machines, A, B, C and D. If a
1
bias dice is rolled is . If the bias dice is rolled
refrigerator and a washing machine are chosen at
4
random, calculate the probability that refregerators
simultaneously with a fair dice, find the probability
P or Q and washing machine A are chosen.
of obtaining 4 on only one of the dice.

1
10

11. There are 3 reference books and 6 novels arranged

on shelf A while 7 reference books and 5 novels are
arranged on shelf B. If a book is chosen at random
from each shelf, find the probability that a
reference book is chosen from shelf A and a novel
is chosen from shelf B.

1
3

12. A box contains 9 cards. Each card is written with a

letter from the word GEOGRAPHY. If two
cards are drawn at random, one after the other,
without replacement, calculate the probability that
a letter G and a vowel are drawn.

5
36

13. Bag A contains 4 cards numbered 3, 5, 6 and 7.

Bag B contains 5 cards numbered 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
A card is drawn at random from each bag. Find
the probability that both cards have
(a) even numbers,
(b) the same numbers.

Probability

1
6

14.

12

15

The diagram above shows 6 pieces of numbered

cards. If one card is chosen at random, find the
probability that the number chosen is
(a) a multiple of 3 and a factor of 24,
(b) a prime number or an even number.

13

(a)

Probability

3
20

(b)

3
20

(a)

14

1
3

(b)

5
6