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Binomial Poisson Summary PDF

The document summarizes the key characteristics and formulas of binomial and Poisson distributions. It provides examples of scenarios that follow each distribution and the relevant calculator commands. It also notes that a binomial distribution can be approximated by a Poisson distribution when np<5 and p<0.1. Additionally, it discusses important concepts like the probability of getting exactly 0 successes and how distributions can be nested within one another in multi-step problems.

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Corvo Haosen Al-Han
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310 views4 pages

Binomial Poisson Summary PDF

The document summarizes the key characteristics and formulas of binomial and Poisson distributions. It provides examples of scenarios that follow each distribution and the relevant calculator commands. It also notes that a binomial distribution can be approximated by a Poisson distribution when np<5 and p<0.1. Additionally, it discusses important concepts like the probability of getting exactly 0 successes and how distributions can be nested within one another in multi-step problems.

Uploaded by

Corvo Haosen Al-Han
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Binomial/Poisson Distributions Summary

Binomial

Poisson

Characteristics:
(i) n independent trials, whereby each trial
yields two possible outcomes- a fixed
constant probability of success p or
failure q = 1 p
(ii) Purely discrete

Definition: X ~ P0 ( )

Definition: X ~ B ( n, p)
Formula:

P ( X = r ) = n C r ( p ) (q )

Mean: = np

Characteristics:
(i) Events occur randomly and singly
(ii) A single parameter (average number of
occurences) defines the distribution and
is proportional to the frame of
measurement ( eg = 1 for 1 week and
therefore = 2 for 2 weeks)
(iii) Purely discrete

nr

Variance: 2 = npq

e ( )
r!
Variance: 2 =
r

Formula:

P( X = r ) =

Mean: =

Separate binomial distributions typically


cannot be pooled together

For two independent poisson distributions


defined under the same frame of
measurement, eg X ~ P0 ( ) and
Y ~ P0 ( ) , they can be pooled together
to form a consolidated poisson model
whereby X + Y ~ P0 ( + )

Example Scenario: number of sixes


obtained during ten throws of an unbiased
dice.

Example Scenario: number of defects along a


10m long piece of cloth manufactured in a
factory.

Graphic calculator commands :


P ( X = r ) binompdf
P ( X r ) binomcdf

Graphic calculator commands :


P ( X = r ) poissonpdf
P ( X r ) poissoncdf

(Note that pdf stands for probability density function, while cdf stands for cumulative
density function.)
Binomial to Poisson Approximation:
For a binomial distribution whereby X ~ B ( n, p) , IF np < 5 and p < 0.1 , then
X ~ P0 (np, npq ) approximately. (Note that there is NO poisson to binomial approximation)
NO continuity correction is required since this is a discrete to discrete approximation.

Some important miscellaneous concepts:


(a) It is advisable, amongst all things, to appreciate and convert to memory that
P( x = 0) = q n for a binomial distribution and P ( X = 0) = e for a poisson distribution.
Example of its relevance:
For X ~ B ( n, 0.05), find the least value of n such that P ( X 1) > 0.99 without employing
any explicit GC statistical commands.
Workings: P ( X 1) > 0.99 1 P ( X = 0) > 0.99
1 (1 0.05) n > 0.99
(continue the solving process)

(b) It is very usual for questions to embed a binomial/poisson distribution within another
binomial/poisson distribution-students must be sufficiently discerning to relate one part
of the context to another. Put it simply, such questions are multi-layered.
Example:
Eggs are packed in boxes of 500. On average, 0.8% of the eggs are found to be broken
when the eggs are unpacked.
(i) Find the probability that in a box of 500 eggs, exactly 3 will be broken.
Let the random variable X denote the number of broken eggs
within a box of 500. Then X ~ B (500, 0.008)
(ii) A supermart unpacks 100 boxes of eggs. What is the probability that there will be
exactly 4 boxes containing no broken eggs?

Now we are zooming out and focusing on a more general picture


of boxes of eggs. Let the random variable Y denote the number
of boxes containing no broken eggs. Then Y ~ B (100, p) where
p = P ( X = 0) based on the random variable X defined in (i).

(c) While less common, finding the mode of a distribution via non GC methods can be
examined-a detailed worked example will illustrate this better:

The random variable  is the number of successes in 200 independent trials of an


experiment in which the probability of success at any one trial is . Given that
(  ) = 10.6008, find the exact value of  and show that
()

()

()
()

for  = 0,1,2, . . . . . . . . . ,199

(i) Hence find the value of such that ( = ) is the maximum.
(ii) Using a Poisson approximation, find the probability that more than 198 of the 200
trials were not successful.

SOLUTIONS :
~ (200, )
Since (  ) = 10.60008,
Then !"() = (  ) [()] = 10.6008 (200p)
200()(1 ) = 10.6008 (200p)
200p 200 = 10.6008 40000p
39800p + 200p 10.6008 = 0
Solving gives  = 0.014 (shown)

( =  + 1)
=
( = )

200 

 (1 )
k
+
1

200 

 (1 )
k

200

.*+, (.-.),//0*
k
+
1

=
200

.* (.-.)1220*
k

(i)

122!
5.*+, (.-.),//0*
(*+,)!(,//0*)!
122!
3
5. * (.-.)1220*
(*)!(1220*)!

() .
() .-.

6200-k9 14

(k+1) 986

()
()

(shown)

If ( =  + 1) > ( = ),


then

()
()

>1

()
()

>1

where solving the inequality gives  < 1.814


Hence, we have ( = 2) > ( = 1) > ( = 0)------------------(1)
On the other hand, if ( =  + 1) < ( = ),
then

()
()

<1

()
()

<1

where solving the inequality gives  > 1.814


Hence, we have
( = 200) < ( = 199) < ( = 198). . . . . . . . . . . . . < ( = 4) < ( = 3) <
( = 2)----------(2)
Reconciling (1) and (2) therefore gives ( = 2)as the maximum, ie  = 2 (shown)
(ii) Since = = 200(0.014) = 2.8 < 5 and  = 0.014 < 0.1,
~  (2.8) approximately
( more than 198 of the 200 trials were not successful)
= ( 1) = 0.231(shown)
(Note: Care must be exercised in interpreting the random variable correctly;  was defined
from the start as the number of successful trials, NOT unsuccessful trials .)

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