ZEO Zambezi Environment Outlook

i
Towards Strengthening Environmental Cooperation and Integration

in the Zambezi River Basin
A report by the
Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
Southern African Development Community (SADC) and
Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC)
ZAMBEZI WATERCOURSE COMMISSION
128 Samora Machel Avenue, Box CY118, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tel (+263 4) 253361/2/3
E-mail [email protected]
Website www.zambezicommission.org
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
SADC Secretariat, SADC House
Private Bag 0095,Gaborone, Botswana
Tel(+267) 395 1863
Website www.sadc.int
SOUTHERN AFRICAN RESEARCH AND DOCUMENTATION CENTRE
Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa (IMERCSA)
15 Downie Avenue, Belgravia, Box 5690, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tel (+263 4) 791 141/791143
Website www.sardc.net
ZAMCOM, SADC, SARDC, 2015
Boxes, Tables, and Figures as specified
Maps, Photos, and Illustrations as specified
ISBN 978-0-7974-6697-5
This book is accessible online through SARDCs Virtual Library for Southern Africa www.sardc.net
Knowledge for Development, which is linked to the SADC website www.sadc.int
All rights reserved. The contents of this book may be quoted with due credit to the authors and copublishers, but may not be reproduced, all or in part, without permission from the copyright holders.
Citation ZAMCOM, SADC, SARDC. 2015. Zambezi Environment Outlook 2015. ZAMCOM, SADC,
SARDC. Harare, Gaborone
The designation of geographical entities, use of any name in this publication, and the presentation of
the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of ZAMCOM, SADC
or SARDC concerning the legal status of any country or territory, or area of its authority, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Editorial and Production by SARDC Publishing
Editor Phyllis Johnson
Cover and Text Design Tonely Ngwenya
FOREWORD
THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN represents the best of what we have in southern Africa in terms
of natural capital. The natural resources ranging from water, land, soils, forests, wildlife and
the minerals that are plentiful under the soil, are critical to regional socio-economic
development and poverty eradication. Since most of these are shared, achieving sustainable
natural resource management requires regional cooperation, an integrated ecosystems
approach, and a common understanding of the natural resource base.
As the most shared resource in the SADC region, the Zambezi Basin provides an
indicator in terms of meeting one of the objectives of the SADC Treaty. Article 5 commits
us all among other objectives, to achieve sustainable utilization of natural resources and
effective protection of the environment. This has to be balanced with another of the
objectives articulated in the Treaty which is to achieve development and economic growth,
alleviate poverty, enhance the standard and quality of life of the people of southern Africa
and support the socially disadvantaged through regional integration.
In line with the Treaty the SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan
(RISDP) calls for regular environmental assessment, monitoring and reporting for the purpose
of analysing regional trends. The Zambezi Environment Outlook is an integrated assessment of
the state and trends of key environmental resources, including freshwater, land, biodiversity
and forests. It covers cross-sectoral elements relating to human settlements, agriculture, energy,
tourism, industry, climate change and variability. The report provides a current update and
introduces new and emerging issues, following the widely acknowledged State of the
Environment Zambezi Basin 2000, which was the first environmental assessment of a single
ecosystem in southern Africa.
The Zambezi Environment Outlook is therefore an important milestone for socio-economic
development in the Basin and the rest of southern Africa. It provides a monitoring tool for
basin-wide and regional targets under the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
Agreement; RISDP; the third Regional Strategic Action Plan for Integrated Water Resources
Development and Management (RSAP III); the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses; and the Protocol on Environmental Management for Sustainable Development,
approved at the 34th SADC Summit in 2014.
The running theme of the report, Strengthening basin-wide cooperation and regional
integration speaks to our desire for a united and sustainably managed region through
integration. An effective regional integration approach is one that is rooted in participation
of well-informed stakeholders. As the Executive Secretary of SADC, I believe that advancing
scientific research of this nature can help Member States to unpack information and share it
widely with citizens to broaden the benefits of regional integration.
All of us in southern Africa depend on the natural environment for energy supplies,
water, food, shelter, tourism and jobs. As a region we need to maintain the Zambezi River
Basins healthy productive ecosystems to meet the challenges of both intra and intergenerational equity.
The production of the Zambezi Environment Outlook is an initiative that we believe will
strengthen collaboration between our policymakers and the public in our collective efforts to
effectively manage our heritage. It is our hope that this initiative should not be an end in itself,
but a long-term process, which should continue for many decades to come. Knowledge
informs development and people need knowledge in order to make informed decisions and
to act appropriately.
iii
I applaud the longstanding partnership of the SADC Secretariat through its Directorate
of Infrastructure & Services and Water Sector and the Zambezi Watercourse Commission
with the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC) through its I.
Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa (IMERCSA) in producing
this unique product.
I take this opportunity to thank the Government of Germany in delegated cooperation
with the Governments of UK (UKAid) and Australia (AusAid) managed by the German
International Cooperation Agency (GIZ) for their consistent support and contribution to
sustainable development in southern Africa through funding this important initiative.
The publication of this Outlook reflects the spirit of cooperation and partnership that
strengthens our efforts to raise the standard of living of people in southern Africa, and
achieve SADCs vision of a shared future within a regional community.
Dr. Stergomena Lawrence Tax

SADC Executive Secretary
iv
PREFACE
THE ZAMBEZI ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK profiles Africas fourth largest river basin, after
the Congo, Nile and Niger. Stretching across eight riparian states (Angola, Botswana, Malawi,
Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe), the Zambezi River Basin is a massive and unique ecosystem that holds potential for cooperation in areas of socio-economic
development and environmental management. Cooperation among Riparian States depends
on the existence of institutional structures, sound policies, a legal framework, willingness
among Riparian States, and awareness of the benefits of shared resources.
In this regard, I welcome the Zambezi Environment Outlook (ZEO) as a report that raises the
base of knowledge on the benefits of cooperation on shared resources, contributing to sound
policy formulation and encouraging the Riparian States to sustainably utilize the natural resources.
The report provides an outlook on the current state of the natural resources endowment
and trends in the Zambezi River Basin. It focuses on how the complex nature of natural resources can be effectively managed in the Basin in the context of the changing climate.
The Zambezi Environment Outlook is in line with the principal objective of the ZAMCOM
agreement which seeks to promote the equitable and reasonable utilization of the water resources of the Zambezi watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof. ZAMCOM takes this report as a useful tool that will act as a reference
document in future ZAMCOM work.
The co-operation which this report envisages is a necessary step towards extending and
consolidating the work of Riparian States in the joint management of natural resources. The
report emphasises the important role the Basin plays in the integration of the SADC region.
I believe that the Zambezi Environment Outlook findings will inform the process of developing the Zambezi Strategic Plan. The plan will be used as a reliable and accepted basis for
decision making on investments in the Basin.
By fostering greater awareness on equitable utilisation of resources, the Zambezi Environment Outlook assists the ZAMCOM Secretariat to operationalise some of the key provisions
of the ZAMCOM Agreement. Among these are the rules of notification and prior consultation on planned measures/projects, and the collection and dissemination of information
and data in support of improved planning and decision-making for the sustainable management and development of the Basin.
Information from the report supports our efforts at providing integrated information
for the decision-making and planning processes in the Basin. These efforts include the improvement of the Zambezi Water Information System (ZAMWIS). The report will be accessible through various platforms including internet and print.
Fulfilling the principle of inclusivity in the ZAMCOM Agreement, the Zambezi Environment Outlook mainstreams gender and youth issues, highlighting the unique roles of men and
women in sustainable management of natural resources. The report explains how the work
of men and women is impacted differently by climate change and highlights the need to consider such differences in formulating resilience policies and strategies.
The current update on the state and trends of the environment comes at a time when
the Zambezi River Basin is faced with many challenges including water pollution, land degradation, deforestation and extinction of biological resources, but there is also a responsive
awareness and determination among Riparian States to address these challenges.
The Zambezi Basin has not been spared the adverse effects of climate change in the
form of frequent floods and droughts. The Basin has become a major climate change hotspot
in southern Africa with predictions indicating a temperature increase of 0.3 0.60 C over
the next century according to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The process of producing the Zambezi Environment Outlook has been inclusive and consultative with SARDC IMERCSA coordinating the research and writing as well as presentation
of the report, working with expert researchers drawn from the Riparian States. SADC and
ZAMCOM have provided the necessary technical and policy guidance, and input to the policy
implementation processes in the region. I acknowledge the valued support from our cooperating partners led by the Government of Germany in delegated cooperation with the Governments of UK (UKAid) and Australia (AusAid) managed by the German International
Cooperation Agency (GIZ).
Prof. Zebediah Phiri

Executive Secretary, ZAMCOM
vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
It is widely accepted that teamwork has an ability to create high quality outcomes that are not
only efficient but thoughtful and effective. This holds true in terms of the preparation of
the Zambezi Environment Outlook (ZEO), a unique report produced as a result of collaboration
of many experts from across the Zambezi Basin and beyond.
The Southern African Research and Documentation Centres environment institute, the I
Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa (SARDC IMERCSA), is
pleased to present this Zambezi Environment Outlook report which highlights the state, trends and
outlook of the environment as it relates to the socio-economic issues of the Basin since the year
2000.
In preparing this report, SARDC IMERCSA worked with a number of partner organizations and individuals drawn from all over southern Africa. Key among the partners are the
SADC Secretariat led by Dr. Stergomena Lawrence Tax and the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Secretariat led by Professor Zebediah Phiri. We applaud both the SADC
Secretariat through its arm, the SADC Water Division, and ZAMCOM for their foresight in
engaging in this exercise from inception to the publication of the report.
The process of producing this report was informed and guided by the valuable support
of the Steering Committee, consisting of representatives from Member States at policy level,
with ZAMCOM, SADC and SARDC as ex-officio members. These included representatives
from the Ministry of Energy, Water and Environment, Angola; Ministry of Minerals, Energy
and Water Resources, Botswana; Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development, Malawi;
ARA Zambeze, Mozambique; Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, Namibia; Ministry
of Water and Irrigation, Department of Water Resources, Tanzania; Ministry of Mines Energy and Water Development, Zambia; and Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate,
Zimbabwe. The Committee was responsible for providing the policy guidance needed for the
successful implementation of this initiative. In addition, the Committee provided liaison and
linkages between the Zambezi Environment Outlook process and political processes happening
in the Zambezi River Basin and southern Africa.
The preparation of the report was supported by a Technical Committee comprising of
ZAMCOMs National Stakeholders Coordination Committee representatives (NASCs) and
SARDCs National Collaboration Centres (NCCS). These include representatives from the
Ministries mentioned above as well as the Centre for Development Research and Information
in Southern Africa (CEDRISA), Malawi; ARA Zambeze, Mozambique; Integrated Rural Development and Nature Conservation (IRDNC), Namibia; and Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA), formerly the Environment Council of Zambia. This committee
was responsible for providing the technical advice to the process. They assisted in developing
the outline and shaping the structure of the report, and reviewing the manuscript.
The Coordination Committee comprising of ZAMCOM, SARDC and GIZ was responsible for the management and coordination of the project, and was instrumental in ensuring
the successful publication of this report.
For the development of the report, SARDC contracted a number of authors and contributors mainly from within the Zambezi River Basin. This team was composed of multidisciplinary specialists who included civil engineers, hydrologists, geographers, gender and
energy experts, specialists in indigenous knowledge systems, water resources management
specialists and media experts among others. The chapters were drafted and then reviewed
by experts from the sectors covered in the report, before and during the Zambezi Environment Outlook Review Workshop.
vii
viii
The contribution of Clever Mafuta and Dr. Washington Ochola in developing the scenarios chapter is second to none. Mr Mafuta also helped in simplifying the Driver-PressureState-Impact-Response framework during the review workshop which ultimately helped in
the structuring of chapters.
Oliver Chapeyama was am innovative and highly regarded facilitator during sessions in
most of the workshops, and he played a key role in mobilizing the ideas and cohesion that
provide the foundation of the report. The process benefited a lot from him as he always
posed thought-provoking questions which helped stakeholders to think in other terms and
always kept them engaged.
We acknowledge with deep appreciation the creative work by the SARDC design and
publishing team who worked tirelessly to ensure an engaging product that is presented in an
attractive and accessible manner. A report of this caliber is only possible when design and
publishing is uncompromised. We highly appreciate the hard work and long hours, and exceptional creativity, of Tonely Ngwenya and Anisha Madanhi supported by Shirley Pisirai,
who gave the report its navigational tools with such a well-organized and visual impact.
We make special mention of our Executive Director, Munetsi Madakufamba who
through his wisdom has been our source of inspiration in the most difficult times. To the
SARDC logistics team chaired by the Financial Services Manager, Dambudzo Jambwa, and
Joseph Ngwawi, a patient and supportive editorial guru who heads SARDCs Regional Economic Development Institute, we highly value your support and advice.
Phyllis Johnson, our Founding Director and Special Projects, we thank you for your active
engagement thorough technical review and knowledgeable eye for accuracy that made this
report a cut above the rest.
The IMERCSA staff who worked tirelessly to make this product a success, we greatly
appreciate your enthusiasm, determination and commitment. A detailed list of authors, contributors, reviewers, partners and the production team is found in the introductory pages of
this report.
The contribution and pivotal role of all institutions and individuals who supported the
preparation of this report and may not have been credited by name is gratefully acknowledged.
The ZEO report was produced with financial support from the Government of Germany in delegated cooperation with the Governments of UK (UKAid) and Australia (AusAid)
managed by the German International Cooperation Agency (GIZ).We say thank you for your
essential support.
Egline Tauya
Head of SARDC IMERCSA
August 2015
PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS

Contributors, Writers and Reviewers
1 Zambezi Basin Overview
SARDC
Author
Reviewer
Munetsi Madakufamba
Phyllis Johnson
Dambudzo Jambwa
Joseph Ngwawi
Kizito Sikuka
Admire Ndhlovu, SARDC IMERCSA

Leonissah Munjoma, ZAMCOM
2 Water Resources
Author
Reviewer
Dr Michael J. Tumbare, Zimbabwe

Lenka Thamae, Lesotho
3 Land and Agriculture
SARDC IMERCSA Team
Author
Contributor
Reviewer
Egline Tauya
Stephen Nanthambwe, Malawi

Prof. Paul Maro, Tanzania
Dr Charles Jumbe, Malawi
4 Biodiversity and Forests
Author
Reviewer
Dr Enos Shumba, Zimbabwe

Dr George Phiri, Malawi
Admire Ndhlovu
Neto Nengomasha
Danai Matowanyika
Vongai Mugabe
Executive Director
Founding Director and Special Projects
Head of Financial Services and Gender Manager
Head of Regional Economic Development Institute
Senior Researcher/Writer, Regional Economic
Development Institute
Head of I. Musokotwane Environment
Resource Centre for Southern Africa
Deputy Head and Research Coordinator
Researcher/Writer
Researcher/Writer and GIS Specialist
Midlands State University, Zimbabwe
SARDC Publishing Team

5 Climate Change and Variability
Author
Contributor
Reviewers
David Lesolle, Botswana

Bonifacio Antnio, Mozambique
Egline Tauya and Neto Nengomasha,
SARDC IMERCSA
Phyllis Johnson
Tonely Ngwenya
Anisha Madanhi
Shirley Pisirai
Anesu Ngadya
Ntombikamama Moyo
Editor and Publisher

Publications Designer
Graphic Designer and Print Coordination
Assistant Editor and Publishing Coordination
National University of Science and Technology
National University of Science and Technology
6 Energy
Author
Reviewer
Joseph Ngwawi, SARDC REDI

Eng. Simbarashe Mangwengwende, Zimbabwe
7 Urbanization and Human Settlements
Author
Reviewer
ix
SARDC Logistics/Technology
Shumirai Govo
Admire Mutoti
Shingirai Bondai
Administrator
ICT Specialist
Website Developer
Gertrude Ngenda, Zambia

Prof. Daniel Tevera, Zimbabwe
Steering Committee
8 Tourism
Author
Reviewer
Sostein Lingwalanya, Malawi

Rosemary Mukogo, Zimbabwe
9 Industrial Development
Author
Reviewer
Admire Ndhlovu and Danai Matowanyika,

SARDC IMERCSA
Dr Judith Fessehaie
10 Zambezi River Basin Scenarios
Author
Reviewer
Dr. Washington Ochola

Clever Mafuta, GRID Arendal
Carolino Manuel Mendes

Narciso Augusto Ambrsio
Tapson Bombo
Ministry of Energy and Water, Angola

Ministry of Minerals, Energy and
Water Resources, Botswana
William P.C. Chipeta
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development, Malawi
Sheila Mandlate
ARA Zambeze, Mozambique
Florence Sibanda
Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, Namibia
Naomi Lupimo
Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Tanzania
Dr.Ngosa Howard Mpamba Ministry of Mines Energy and
Water Development, Zambia
Michael Maforo
Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate, Zimbabwe
Lambert Matange
Specialist Contributors all Chapters
Dr. Joseph Z. Matowanyika

Dr. Plaxedes Mubaya
David Lesolle
Indigenous Knowledge Systems

Gender Mainstreaming
Climate Change and Variability
ZAMCOM Secretariat

Leonissah Munjoma
Eng. Evans Kaseke
John Metzger
Executive Secretary
Manager Information, Communication and
Partnerships
Programme Manager-Strategic Planning
Senior Advisor
SADC Secretariat
Dr Stergomena Lawrence Tax Executive Secretary

SADC Water Division
Phera S. Ramoeli
Barbara Lopi
Dr Kenneth Msibi
Senior Programme Officer

Awareness, Communication and
Media Expert
Water Policy Expert
Technical Committee
Rafael Miguel Neto

Tapson Bombo
Manuel Malaze
Florence Sibanda
Selma Kanandjembo
Tumaini Mwamyalla
Irene G Lungu-Chipili
Shephard Shereni
Barbara Lopi
Leonissah Munjoma
John Metzger
Munetsi Madakufamba
EglineTauya
Admire Ndhlovu
Neto Nengomasha
Danai Matowanyika

Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources,
Botswana
ARA-Zambeze, Mozambique
Zambia Environmental Management Agency, Zambia
SADC Water Division
ZAMCOM
ZAMCOM
SARDC
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
Coordination Committee

Leonissah Munjoma
Barbara Lopi
Munetsi Madakufamba
Egline Tauya
Admire Ndhlovu
Marita Konstanczak
Review Workshop and Scenarios Development
ZAMCOM Secretariat
ZAMCOM Secretariat
SADC Secretariat
SARDC
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
GIZ
Stakeholders Consultative Conference
Carolino Manuel Mendes

Tapson Bombo
William P.C. Chipeta
Sheila Mandlate
Florence Sibanda
Naomi Lupimo
Dr. Ngosa Howard Mpamba
Michael Maforo
Michael Mutale
Leonissah Munjoma
Marita Konstanczak
Rafael Miguel Neto
Oliver Chapeyama
Ontlogetse Dikgomo
Elton Laisi
Sostein Lingwalanya
Manuel Malaze
Daisy Nheta
Selma Kanandjembo
Hosea S. Sanga
Dr. Willy Makundi
Irene G. Lungu
Dr. Enos Shumba
Prof Sara Feresu
Charles Dini
Phyllis Johnson
Joseph Ngwawi
EglineTauya
Admire Ndhlovu
Neto Nengomasha
Shumirai Govo

Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development,
Malawi
Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry,
Namibia
Ministry of Mines Energy and
Water Development, Zambia
Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate,
Zimbabwe
Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat
Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat
GIZ
Enviroplan, Botswana (Facilitator)
Centre for Development Research and
Information in Southern Africa
Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Culture,
Malawi
Integrated Agro and Evironmental Services,
Namibia
Ministry of Agriculture, Water and
Forestry,Namibia
Environmental Management Consultants,
Tanzania
Zambia Environmental Management of Agency,
Zambia
WWF, Zimbabwe
Institute of Environmental Studies,
University of Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe National Water Authority, Zimbabwe
SARDC
SARDC REDI
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC IMERCSA
SARDC
Barbara Lopi
John Metzger
Philip Beetlestone
Oliver Chapeyama
Dr. Michael J. Tumbare
Stephen Nanthambwe
Dr.Enos Shumba
David Lesolle
Gertrude Ngenda
Sosten Lingwalanya
SADC Water Division

ZAMCOM Secretariat
GIZ
Enviroplan, Botswana
University of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe
ELS Consultants, Malawi
WWF, Zimbabwe
University of Botswana, Botswana
University of Zambia, Zambia
Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Culture,
Malawi
Eng. S. Mangwengwende
Consultant, Zimbabwe
Rosemary Mukogo
Green Tourism Services, Zimbabwe
Bonifcio Antnio
National Institute for Disaster Management,
Mozambique
Dr. Joseph. Z. Matowanyika Chinhoyi University of Technology, Zimbabwe
Clever Mafuta
GRID-Arendal, Norway
Dr. Washington Ochola
Consultant, Kenya
Rafael Miguel Neto
Tapson Bombo
Elton Laisi
Centre for Development Research and
Information in Southern Africa, Malawi
Manuel Malaze
Hydrologist
Abraham Nehemiah
Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry,
Namibia
Tumaini Mwamyalla
Irene Lungu-Chipili
Zambia Environmental Management Agency,
Zambia
Shephard Shereni
Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate,
Zimbabwe
Reuben Mafati
IRDNC, Namibia
Elizabeth Karonga
Zambezi River Authority
Dr.Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya Chinhoyi University of Technology, Zimbabwe
Lioli Maguma
Environmental Management Agency, Zimbabwe
Ntandokamlimu Nondo
Environmental Management Agency, Zimbabwe
Ish Mafundikwa
Journalist Zimbabwe
Munetsi Madakufamba
SARDC Executive Director
Egline Tauya
SARDC IMERCSA
Admire Ndhlovu
SARDC IMERCSA
Neto Nengomasha
SARDC IMERCSA
Danai Matowanyika
SARDC IMERCSA
Joseph Ngwawi
SARDC REDI
Kizito Sikuka
SARDC REDI
Danai Majaha
SARDC REDI
Thandiwe Mutanha
Midlands State University, Zimbabwe
CONTENTS
FOREWORD BY SADC EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
PREFACE BY ZAMCOM EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT BY HEAD OF SARDC IMERCSA
PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS
iii
v
vii
ix
CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES - FIGURES - BOXES - MAPS
ACRONYMS
COMMON AND SCIENTIFIC NAMES
xi
xii
xv
xvii
INTRODUCTION
xix
1 ZAMBEZI BASIN OVERVIEW

Physical Characteristics and Hydrology of the Basin Social and Cultural Environment
The Basins Natural Capital and Productive Resources Base Socio-Economic Characteristics
Current Threats Interventions for Basin Development References
2 WATER RESOURCES
Water Availability Water Demand and Use Water Access Water Management Challenges
Declining Water Quality Changes in State of Water Resources and Resultant Impacts
Responses /Actions Policy Options Conclusion Chapter Linkages References
25
3 LAND AND AGRICULTURE

Land Area and Availability Land Use Changes Food Production and Food Security Trends
Land and Agriculture Challenges Interventions on Land and Agriculture
Policy Options Chapter Linkages References
69
4 BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS

The Value of Biodiversity Drivers of Biodiversity and Forest Loss Emerging Drivers
Status of Biodiversity and Forests Response to Biodiversity and Forest Loss Biodiversity Dynamics in the Basin
Multilateral Environmental Agreements Conclusion Chapter Linkages References
95
5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

What Causes Climate Change? Climate Conditions of the Zambezi Basin Observed Changes in Climate in
the Zambezi Basin Impacts of Climate Change in the Zambezi Basin Responses to Climate Change Impacts
Regional and Global Climate Agreements Other Non-Policy Strategies Chapter Linkages References
131
6 ENERGY
Energy Security Main Energy Issues in the Zambezi Basin Addressing Energy Challenges in the Zambezi Basin
SAPP Planned Generation Projects Challenges in Implementation of Power Projects Policy Responses and Targets
Chapter Linkages References
159
7 URBANIZATION AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

Settlement Patterns and Growth Rates Causes and Implications of Rapid Urbanization
Challenges of Rapid Urbanization Policy Issues and Options Chapter Linkages References
181
8 TOURISM
205
xi
Key Drivers of Tourism Development Performance and Trends in the SADC Region and Zambezi Basin
Culture and Community Development Environmental Impacts of Tourism Tourism Opportunities and Challenges
Institutional Responses Policy Options in the Zambezi Basin Chapter Linkages References
9 INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
235
State of Industrialization in the Zambezi Basin Challenges for Industrial Development

Environmental Impacts of Industrial Development Opportunities for Accelerating
Industrial Growth Infrastructure Enhancement Efforts Policy Options for
Sustained Industrial Growth Conclusion Chapter Linkages References
10 ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN SCENARIOS

Drivers of Change Scenario Analysis Approach The Scenarios Elaborating the Scenarios
Exploring Selected Issues in the Zambezi Basin Towards Effective Policies and Basin Management
Conclusion Chapter Linkages References
265
List of Tables, Figures, Boxes and Maps

Tables
Table 1.1
Table 1.2
Table 1.3
Table 1.4
Table 1.5
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 2.3
Table 2.4
Table 2.5
Table 2.6
Table 2.7
Table 2.8
Table 2.9
Table 2.10
Table 2.11
Table 2.12
xii
Table 2.13
Table 2.14
Table 2.15
Table 2.16
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 3.4
Table 3.5
Table 3.6
Table 3.7
Table 3.8
Table 3.9
Table 3.10
Table 3.11
Table 3.12
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 4.4
Table 4.5
Table 4.6
Table 4.7
Table 4.8
Table 4.9
Table 4.10
Table 4.11
Table 4.12
Table 4.13
Area and population in the Zambezi Basin

4
Total population of Zambezi Basin States
4
Population growth rate
5
Population density
6
Agricultural land in the Zambezi Basin
16
Sources of surface water resources in the Zambezi
River Basin
26
Current and projected consumptive use and mean
annual runoff
27
Rainfall and evaporation statistics
29
Water availability in the Zambezi Basin
32
Comparison of the Zambezi River Basin water sector
status with other benchmarks/indicators
32
Current water use patterns by sector for
Zambezi River Basin riparian states
35
Irrigated land in the Zambezi Basin and share of
arable land and permanent crops
35
Climate change findings for the Zambezi River
Basin
36
Interbasin water transfers in southern Africa
42
Key challenges and issues in the water sector in the
Zambezi River Basin
43
Summary of governance issues and impacts in the
Zambezi River Basin
44
Causes of water quality deterioration in a watershed and
associated problems
51
Effects of changes in state of the water resources
and the anticipated resultant impacts
55
Summary of climatic challenges, vulnerable sectors and
vulnerability context by country
56
Main water sector legal instruments
62
Response areas and interventions
65
Land area distribution in the Zambezi Basin
69
Land allocation by gender in Zimbabwe during
land reform programme
70
Change of agricultural area per year (%)
72
Share of agriculture in GDP and employment
73
Share of agriculture in exports (%)
73
Irrigated land in the Zambezi Basin countries and
its share in arable land and permanent crops
73
Maize production by country
74
Population at risk of food insecurity in the
Zambezi Basin countries
75
Deforestation in the Zambezi Basin
77
Severity of land degradation in the Zambezi Basin
78
Soil salinization in the Zambezi River Basin
80
Protected terrestrial areas as % of total land area
87
Species diversity in the Zambezi Basin
95
Trends in carbon stocks in forest biomass
96
Some socio-economic statistics on riparian states
97
Relationship between agricultural expansion and
deforestation
97
Wood energy requirements for selected energy uses in
Basin States
98
Incidents and impact of uncontrolled veldt fires
in Zimbabwe
98
Involvement of some Zambezi Basin states in
bio-fuel production
101
Some uses of plant species from Mopane woodland 103
Forest cover information for Basin States
105
Total number of endemic plant species in
Basin countries
105
Land use change within the Zambezi Basin
106
Endemic mammals and birds in Basin countries
108
Amphibian and reptile species
109
Table 4.14 Nutritional value of Mopane Caterpillar compared to

other foods
Table 4.15 Insects that produce commercial or edible products
Table 4.16 Threatened animal species in Zambezi River Basin
countries
Table 4.17 Total number of threatened species including plant
species
Table 4.18 Extent of protected areas in the Zambezi Basin
Table 4.19 Transfrontier conservation areas in the Zambezi
Basin
Table 4.20 Incidents of reported livestock losses by predator in
three districts of Botswana
Table 4.21 Status of the wild dog national action plans in
KAZA TFCA Member States
Table 4.22 Status of riparian states on international instruments
Table 4.23 Major wetlandsand Ramsar sites (September 2014)
Table 5.1 Observed and predicted temperature changes
Table 5.2 Observed and projected changes in frequency of
hot and cold days
Table 5.3 Occurrence of extreme events in the Zambezi Basin
Table 5.4 Changes in activity of cyclones in categories 4 and 5
for the South West Indian Ocean
Table 5.5 Reported malaria cases in the selected countries in
Zambezi Basin
Table 5.6 Impact of climate change induced floods
2000-2009
Table 5.7 Impact of climate change induced drought
2000-2009
Table 5.8 Climate change related challenges, vulnerable sectors
and vulnerability in the Zambezi Basin
Table 5.9 Main adaptation activities, interventions and
delivery methods
Table 5.10 Mitigating GHG emissions from the agricultural
sector
Table 5.11 Adaptation and mitgation initiatives in Basin States
Table 6.1 Total energy production and use for Basin States
Table 6.2 Fuels used for cooking and access to modern fuels as
a percent of total population
Table 6.3 Installed and available capacity in SAPP with
demand forecast
Table 6.4 SAPP generation mix for 2012/13
Table 6.5 Levels of electrification in the Zambezi Basin
Table 6.6 Contribution of biomass fuels to energy supply
in 2000
Table 6.7 Estimates of renewable energy potential
Table 6.8 Peak annual demand
Table 6.9 SAPP committed generation projects
Table 6.10 Zambezi River Basin planned hydropower generation
projects (2013-2018)
Table 7.1 Urban and rural populations in Basin State
Table 7.2 Waste disposal in Lusaka City
Table 7.3 Sanitation coverage
Table 7.4 MDG 7 Ensure environmental sustainability
Table 8.1 Mobile cellular subscribers, number of
subscriptions
Table 8.2 SADC region travel and tourism trends
Table 8.3 Travel and tourism trends for the Zambezi
River Basin
Table 8.4 Advantages of nature-based tourism
Table 8.5 Impact of tourism on the environment
Table 8.6 Selected challenges and opportunities for tourism
growth by country
Table 9.1 Contribution of manufacturing to GDP %
Table 9.2 Manufacturing performance in Zambezi Basin
countries
109
110
110
115
119
119
121
122
124
125
141
136
139
141
142
143
144
147
150
152
153
160
169
162
163
164
165
168
171
173
176
183
190
192
193
210
211
212
219
220
228
236
237
Table 9.3
Table 9.4
Table 9.5
Table 9.6
Table 9.7
Table 9.8
Table 9.9
Table 9.10
Table 9.11
Table 9.12
Table 9.13
Table 10.1
Table 10.2
Table 10.3
Table 10.4
Table 10.5
Primary commodities in the Zambezi Basin countries

Production of tobacco, raw unmanufactured (tonnes)
Export/Import of cigarettes
Net Production Value for cotton lint (tonnes)
Export/Import value of beverages
SMEs definitions, typical numbers
Examples of largescale basic materials industries
envisioned in Southern Africa
An analysis of the Zambezi Valley
Development Corridor
Policies of Zambezi Basin States on
industrial development
Legislation that guides environmental protection
per country
Multilateral Environmental Agreements as ratified by
Basin states
Population in the Zambezi Basin
Water Sector Vision 2027 targets
Gap between current situation and
Vision 2027 targets
Hydropower expansion in each future scenario
Manifestations of CWS and SWS, and strategies for
moving towards SWS
238
239
240
240
241
241
Figure 6.3
Figure 6.4
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.6
Figure 6.7
Figure 6.8
246
Figure 7.1
Figure 7.2
Figure 7.3
250
253
Figure 7.4
Figure 8.1
255
Figure 8.2
258
266
278
279
287
Figure 9.1
Figure 9.2
Figure 9.3
Figure 9.4
288
Figure 9.5
Figure 9.6
Figure 9.7
Figures
Figure 1.1
Figure 1.2
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.4
Figure 2.5
Figure 2.6
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
Figure 3.5
Figure 4.1
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
Figure 5.3
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8
Figure 5.9
Figure 5.10
Figure 5.11
Figure 5.12
Figure 5.13
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2
Zambezi River Basin share by country

2
Population ratios by sex in the Zambezi Basin
countries
5
Sources of surface water resources
27
Comparison of the Zambezi River Basin water sector
status with other benchmarks/indicators
34
Water use by economic sector
35
Per capita annual renewable water resources
37
Water and sanitation coverage in Zambezi Basin States 39
Distribution of population in urban and rural areas in
Zambezi River Basin States
40
Cereal production trend
74
Trend in food insecure population
75
Population density and per capita land area in the
Zambezi Basin
76
Cattle population in the Zambezi Basin
79
Cattle population in the basin countries
79
Trends in fish catch on Lake Kariba
113
Coping range, climate change adaptation and
vulnerability to climate change
131
Atmospheric concentrations
132
Climate drivers, impacts and responses
133
Rainfall determining systems for the Zambezi River
Basin
134
Impact of ENSO on rainfall in Zambezi River Basin 134
Changes in minimum temperature for Gaborone,
Botswana
135
Annual mean temperature changes for Kariba
135
Actual and predicted future rainfall in Gaborone,
Botswana
137
Decrease in water availability June-December in the
Zambezi River Basin region in Mozambique
137
Rainfall anomalies across central Mozambique
where Zambezi Basin is located
138
Flood and drought events in the Zambezi River Basin Mozambique case
141
Population with increasing stress
145
Current and future water scarcity, stress and
vulnerability in some ZRB states
145
Distribution of households with access to electricity 161
Growing demand for electricity in Lusaka 1994-2004 162
Figure 10.1
Figure 10.2
Figure 10.3
Figure 10.4
Figure 10.5
Figure 10.6
Figure 10.7
Figure 10.8
Access to grid electricity in SADC region

Demand side management
Impact of DSM on the SAPP Load Forecast
Hydropower projects on the common Zambezi River
Priority energy projects for PIDA
Existing and proposed transmission grid around the
Zambezi Basin
Urban population in Zambezi Basin states
Common reasons for urban migration in Angola
Percentage of urban residents with access to
improved water and sanitation
Reported cholera cases in selected countries
Tourist arrival trends for Zambezi River Basin
countries
Travel and tourism contribution to Zambezi River
Basin by country
Capacity utilization in Zimbabwe manufacturing
sector
Composition of Zambias manufacturing sector
Total number of CDM projects (registered and
requested)
Total number of registered CDM projects in Zambezi
Basin states
Trends of CFCs consumption in the Zambezi
River Basin
Strategies for cleaner production
Examples of implementing cleaner production in
industrial processes
Projected population for Zambezi Basin countries
based on International Futures and UN scenarios
Population and GHG emissions profiles for
Zambezi River Basin into 2050
The scenario framework
The scenario elaboration framework
Basin-wide and thematic comprehensive coverage in
Zambezi Environment Outlook scenario assessment
Future qualitative reflections of climate challenge
risks in basin countries under conventional and
sustainability world scenarios
Proportion of basin level water resources abstracted
for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in the
countries, under the two scenarios of CWS and SWS
Projected tourist arrival trends for ZRB Countries
from 2012-2040
165
172
172
174
175
176
184
185
192
193
207
212
237
239
256
256
257
259
259
266
269
271
272
272
274
281
283
Boxes
Box 1.1
Box 2.1
Box 2.2
Box 2.3
Box 2.4
Box 2.5
Box 2.6
Box 2.7
Box 2.8
Box 2.9
Box 2.10
Box 3.1
Box 3.2
Box 4.1
Box 4.2
Box 4.3
Victoria Falls
Water security
Case study on cholera outbreak
Population of the Zambezi River Basin
Artificial groundwater recharge
Invasive weeds on Lake Kariba
Current status and impacts of eutrophication Lake Chivero
Formalizing the artisanal mining sector
IWRM is based on the Rio/Dublin Principles
Principles of the Revised SADC Protocol on
Shared Watercourses
Indigenous knowledge systems and water
SADC protocols and declarations
Linking agriculture and land to biodiversity
conservation in the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe
Key issues on REDD+ in Africa
Different forest tenure systems
Wildlife species in the basin with high risk of
extinction
3
33
38
40
45
48
49
52
59
60
64
84
91
100
107
111
xiii
Box 4.4
Box 4.5
Box 4.6
Box 4.7
Box 4.8
Box 5.1
Box 5.2
Box 5.3
Box 5.4
Box 5.5
Box 5.6
Box 6.1
Box 6.2
Box 6.3
Box 6.4
Invasive Australian Crayfish spreading fast in

Lake Kariba waters
Zimbabwes experience with the CAMPFIRE model
Research and development on lesser known
tree species in Mozambique
The Hoodia succulent plant and the San people
Aichi biodiversity targets
Atmospheric system
Factors that exacerbate Africas vulnerability to
climate change and variability
Response to malaria outbreak
Birds as indicators of rain or floods
Kuomboka ceremony
Disaster risk reduction in Mozambique
Energy definitions
Lusaka energy outlook
Energy and infrastructure and indigenous
Knowledge System
SADC countries embark on biomass energy conservation
114
115
116
123
124
132
146
148
149
149
151
159
160
166
177
Box 7.1
Box 7.2
Box 7.3
Box 7.4
Box 7.5
Box 7.6
Box 8.1
Box 8.2
Box 8.3
Box 8.4
Urban centres and urbanization

Human settlements
Problems of improper handling of waste
Water kiosks for peri-urban dwellers in Zambia
Urbanization and pollution
Urban agriculture in Mzuzu City, Northern Malawi
Defining tourism
Tourism products in the Zambezi River Basin
Community participation in tourism
Case Study of tourism benefits for local populationKuti community ranch, Salima Malawi
Box 8.5 Four strategic role players in ecotourism
Box 8.6 The case of Cecil hunting as tourism in the
Zambezi Basin
Box 8.7 Zimbabwe launches its national tourism policy
Box 9.1 Beverage companies build recycling plant in Zimbabwe
Box 9.2 Regional efforts to address air pollution
Box 10.1 What are scenarios?
Box 10.2 Seeds of change
Maps
xiv
Map 1.1
Map 1.2
Map 1.3
Map 1.4
Map 1.5
Map 1.6
Map 2.1
Map 2.2
Map 2.3
Map 2.4
Map 2.5
Map 2.6
Map 2.7
Map 2.8
Map 3.1
Map 4.1
Map 4.2
Map 4.3
Map 4.4
Map 4.5
Map 5.1
Map 7.1
Map 7.2
Map 9.1
Map 9.2
Map 9.3
Map 9.4
Map 9.5
Map 9.6
Major River Basins in Africa

Population Distribution in the Zambezi River Basin
Zambezi River Basin Average Temperatures
Zambezi River Basin Topography and Hydrology
Average Rainfall in the Zambezi Basin
Zambezi River Basin Vegetation
The Zambezi River Basin
Mean Annual Rainfall Distribution Across the SADC Region
Mean Annual Rainfall Distribution Across the Zambezi River Basin
Hydropower Facilities in the Zambezi River Basin
Internal Renewal Water Resources and Inter-Basin Water Schemes
Groundwater Resources in Southern Africa
Wetlands of the Zambezi River Basin
Stream Flow Measuring Stations
Land Cover and Land Use in the Zambezi River Basin
Eco-regions of the Zambezi Basin
Extent of the Wattled Crane and Blue Swallow in the Zambezi River Basin
The Range of Top Predators (Lions, Cheetahs and African Wild Dog) in the Zambezi River Basin
Range of Selected Herbivores in the Zambezi River Basin
Zambezi Basin Transfrontier Conservation Areas
Occurrence of Severe Dry Periods During First Quarter of Year 1995 - 2012
Major Cities and Towns in the Zambezi River Basin
Urban Population Growth
Minerals in the Zambezi Basin
Major Economic Corridors in Southern Africa
Major Development Potential along the Beira Corridor
The Zambezi Valley Development Corridor
Investment Opportunities along the Zambezi Valley Development Corridor
Major Development Potential along the Dar es Salaam Corridor
2
6
10
11
12
13
25
28
29
31
41
45
47
57
71
104
112
112
113
120
140
182
184
244
245
247
248
249
251
181
187
191
211
215
198
205
206
215
217
218
227
230
258
260
265
277
ACRONYMS
ABS
AfDB
AIDA
APINA
APPSA
AFSUN
ASWAp
ARWR
CA
CAADP
CAMPFIRE
CBD
CBNRM
CER
CFLs
CITES
CFCs
CSR
COMESA
CoP
CSIR
CFLS
DANIDA
DDT
EAPP
ECZ
EIA
ENSO
ESAP
ESCOM
FAO
FAOSTAT
FCPF
FGLPA
FMD
GDP
GEF
GHG
GWP
HCB
HWLC
IAS
IKS
ILO
IMERCSA
IPCC
IRNDC
ITCZ
IUCN
IWRM
KAZA
LLWC
NCAR
Access and Benefit Sharing

African Development Bank
Accelerated Industrial Development of Africa
Air Pollution Information Network-Africa
Agricultural Productivity Programme for Southern Africa
African Food Security Urban Network
Agricultural Sector Wide Approach
Annual Renewable Water Resources
Conservation Agriculture
Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme
Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources
Convention on Biological Diversity
Community Based Natural Resource Management
Certified Emission Reduction
Compact Florescent Lamps
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species
Chlorofluorocarbons
Corporate Social Responsibility
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
Conference of Parties
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
Compact Florescent Lamps
Danish International Development Agency
Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
Eastern Africa Power Pool
Environmental Council of Zambia
Environmental Impact Assessment
El Nio Southern Oscillation
Economic Structural Adjustment Programme
Electricity Supply Commission of Malawi
Food and Agriculture Organization
FAO Statistical Database
Forest Carbon Partnership Fund
Framework and Guidelines on Land Policy in Africa
Foot and Mouth Disease
Gross Domestic Product
Global Environment Fund
Greenhouse Gases
Global Water Partnership
Hydro Cahora Bassa
Hot Water Load Control
Invasive Alien Species
International Labour Organization
I Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Integrated Rural Development and Nature Conservation
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
International Union for Conservation of Nature
Integrated Water Resources Management
Kavango Zambezi TFCA
Lilongwe Wildlife Centre
National Centre for Atmospheric Research
xv
xvi
NAMA
NAPA
NASC
NEPAD
NOAA
MDG
MEA
MSIOA
ODS
PIDA
POPs
PRODEL
PWMAZ
RDC
RECs
RERA
REDD+
RETOSA
RIDMP
RISDP
RSAP
SADC
SADCWD
SAGCOT
SAPP
SARDC
SARCOF
SE4ALL
SPGRC
SWH
TFCA
UNCCD
UNDP
UNECA
UNEP
UNESCO
UNFCCC
UNWTO
WIMSA
WIPO
WMO
WTTC
WWF
ZACPLAN
ZACPRO
ZAMCOM
ZAMSEC
ZAMWIS
ZAMTEC
ZELA
ZEMA
ZESCO
ZINWA
ZIMOZA
ZRA
ZRB
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

National Adaptation Plan of Action
National Stakeholders Coordination Committees
New Partnership for Africas Development
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Millennium Development Goals
Multilateral Environmental Agreements
Multi-Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis
Ozone Depleting Substances
Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa
Persistent Organic Pollutants
Empresa de Produo de Electricidade
Parks and Wildlife Management Authority of Zimbabwe
Rural District Council
Regional Economic Communities
Regional Electricity Regulatory Association
Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation
Regional Tourism Organization for Southern Africa
Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan
Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan
Regional Strategic Action Plan
Southern African Development Community
SADC Water Division
Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania
Southern African Power Pool
Southern African Research and Documentation Centre
Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum
Sustainable Energy for All
SADC Plant Genetic Resources Centre
Solar Water Heaters
Trans Frontier Conservation Area
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
United Nations Environment Programme
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
United Nations World Tourism Organization
Working Group of Indigenous Minorities in Southern Africa
World Intellectual Property Organization
World Meteorological Organization
World Travel and Tourism Council
World Wide Fund for Nature
Zambezi River Action Plan
Zambezi Action Plan Project
Zambezi Watercourse Commission
Zambezi Watercourse Commission Secretariat
Zambezi Water Information System
ZAMCOM Technical Committee
Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association
Zambia Environmental Management Agency
Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation
Zimbabwe National Water Authority
Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia
Zambezi River Authority
Zambezi River Basin
COMMON AND SCIENTIFIC NAMES

Acacia
African blackwood
African wild dog
African ebony
African potato
African star chestnut
African sugar bush/ mubondo
African wattle, weeping wattle
African wild silk moth
Baobab
Barotse water snake
Beans
Bird plum, brown ivory
Black rhinocerous
Bloodwood
Blue wildebeest
Brick red ochna/ muminu
Bushmans hat
Bushveld bluebush,star apple
Cassava
Common rye
Common stingless bee
Depa vine
Dwarf sungazer
False mopane
Gladde rooiopslag
Groundnut
Guinea grass
Heirloom roses
Hissing tree, mabola plum
Honey bee
Kafue reed frog
Kapenta
Kariba weed
Lantana
Mukwa
Monitor lizard genus
Monkey fingers
Mopane
Nile tilapia fish
Panga panga
Pod mahogany
Pepperbark
Acacia mellifera, Acacierioloba,acacipolyacanthna

Dalbegia melanoxylon
Lycaon pictus
Afzelia quanzensis
Hypoxi hemerocallidea
Sterculia Africana
Protea gaguedi
Peltophorum africanum
Gonometa
Adansonia digitata
Crotaphopeltis barotseensis
Phaseoulus vulgaris
Berchemia discolour
Diceros bicornis
Pterocarpus angolensis
Connochaetes taurinus
Psorospermum febrifugum
Hoodia gordinni
Diospyros lycioides
Manihotesculenta
Setaria palustris
Trigona beccarii gribodo
Cissus integrifolia
Cordylus
Julbernardia, Guibourtia coleosperma
Euphorbia inaequilatera
Arachishypogaea
Panicum maximum
Floribunda
Parinari curatellifoli
Apis mellifera
Hyperolius pyrrhodictyon
Liomnothrissa miodon
Salviniamolesta
Lantana camara
Brachystegia spiciformis,Combretum collinum
Varanus
Friesodielsia abovata
Colophospermum mopane
Oreochromisniloticus
Parinari cuterfolia,parinarnsisi cape
Pterocarpus angolensis
Walburgia salutaris
xvii
xviii
Prince of Wales feathers

Python
Red water fan
Rock albizia
Savannah dwaba-berry
Sickle bush
Silver cluster leaf
Smooth creeping milkweed
Snapdragon
Snotapple
Sour plum
Sugar plum
Sweet potatoes
Tamalindi
Tamarind
Tsessebe antelope
Umbrella thorn
Water hyacinth
Wattled crane
Water lettuce
White rhinoceros
White thorn
Woodland waterberry
Zambezi teak
Zebrawood
Brachystegia boehemii
Python natalensis
Azollafiliculoides
Albizia brevifolia
Friesodielsia abovata
Dichrostachys cinerea
Termiinalia formis
Gmelia aborea
Azanza garckeana
Ximenia caffra.
Uapaca kirkiana
Ipomeabatatas
Terminalia sericea
Tamarindus indica
Damaliscus lunatus
Acacia tortilis
Eichhorniacrassipes
Bugeranus carunculatus
Pistiastratiotes
Ceratotherium simum
Camphlacantha
Syzgium guineense
Ziziphus mucronata
Baikiaea plurijuga
INTRODUCTION
THE ZAMBEZI ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK provides an integrated analysis of the shared natural
resources of the Zambezi River Basin, taking into account the ecological, social and economic
issues. These three factors are critical to achieving a state of sustainability in the Basin. The rational
for sustainable natural resource management is to achieve a balance between human demand on
natural resources and the natural environments ability to meet these demands.
The report, which comes 15 years after the publication of the widely acknowledged State
of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000, assesses the current state of the environment in the
Zambezi Basin. It reflects on environmental trends since the last report, while looking into
the future by suggesting alternative development paths.
As human activity and climate change and variability have brought drastic changes to the
state of the environment in the Zambezi River Basin over the past decade and a half,
impacting on socio-economic development, there is an expressed need to keep the state,
trends and outlook of the environment under continuous review. The Zambezi Basin has
been described as the focal point in terms of water resources such as wetlands and fisheries,
energy, wildlife, biodiversity, conservation, tourism and settlement models. The Zambezi Basin
Outlook brings these issues into focus, to enable decision makers and general public to take
positive steps in reversing negative environmental change impacting on the resources.
The Outlook is produced under the projects theme of Strengthening basin-wide
cooperation and regional integration. This has been inspired by the ZAMCOM Agreement
which in its preamble is conscious of the advantages of regional cooperation with regard to
the utilization and development of common water resources and the significant contribution
which such cooperation could make towards the peace and prosperity of the Southern African
Region. The theme resonates well with the Zambezi River Basin Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM) Strategy of 2008, whose overall objective is equitable sustainable
utilization of water for social and environmental justice, regional integration and economic
benefit for the present and future generations. This is in line with the SADC regional
integration agenda. The Zambezi River Basin is an integrating factor in the SADC region,
given its diverse shared and transboundary resources.
Building on the existing frameworks of cooperation and integration, the Zambezi
Environment Outlook report profiles the Zambezi Basins environmental resources as an asset
for development, as well as a tool for regional cooperation and integration.
ZEO process
The Zambezi Environment Outlook was prepared as part of the Zambezi Environment Outlook
project, an initiative by ZAMCOM and SADC. This was implemented by SARDC through its I.
Musokotwane Environment Centre for Southern Africa (IMERCSA), with support from GIZ
and its partners UK Aid and Australian Aid. The main objective of the project is to strengthen
access to environmental knowledge and provide a well-functioning distribution channel, for the
promotion of sustainable national and transboundary natural resources management in the
Zambezi Basin among decision and policy makers at national, regional and sectoral levels.
The process of preparing the Zambezi Environment Outlook was highly consultative and
participatory during which consensus was built around basin-wide perspectives and priorities.
The preparation of the report started in early 2013 with inception meetings of the
Coordination Committee and Technical Committee in Harare, Zimbabwe. The objectives of
the Coordination Committee meeting were to provide guidance to the management, planning
and implementation of the Zambezi Environment Outlook project, discuss the draft outline
of the Zambezi Environment Outlook report and provide linkages between the implementing
agency and the National Coordination Committees (NASCs).
At the same time, the Technical Committee met to consult partners on the draft outline of
the Zambezi Environment Outlook report, provide technical guidance to the process of implementing
the ZEO Project, ensure ownership of the project by the Zambezi Basin Stakeholders, and gain
a deeper understanding of the project and methodology of implementation.
xix
xx
A regional Stakeholder Consultative Conference was then held in May 2013 in

Windhoek, Namibia to discuss key issues in the Zambezi Basin, including climate change
and other critical issues, for inclusion in the report. Participants included representatives
from the ministries responsible for water and environment in the Zambezi Basin, civil
society groups, community-based organizations, the academia and media, as well as
ZAMCOM and GIZ.
The first Steering Committee meeting met at the time of the Stakeholder Consultative
Conference to provide policy guidance to the implementation of the ZEO project, to discuss
and agree on terms of reference, ensure ownership of the project by the Zambezi Basins
stakeholders, and discuss the draft outline of the Zambezi Environment Outlook report.
This was followed by commissioning of writers and contributors. Each chapter had
a Lead Author and Contributors. The role of the Lead Authors and Contributors was to
research, analyse and draft the assigned chapter or chapter section, over a fixed timeframe,
a period of three months. During collection of data and information, the project
team worked with national structures and other initiatives. The draft chapters were then
presented to a stakeholders review workshop held in May 2014 in Harare, Zimbabwe.
The workshop was held to review and strengthen the draft manuscript of the Zambezi
Environment Outlook. The workshop also identified key issues for development of the
scenarios chapter.
Comments from the review workshop were then incorporated by Lead Authors before the
chapters were technically edited by the IMERCSA and SARDC team. This involved ensuring
that the report was technically sound with adequate analysis of issues, as well as checking accuracy
of facts, filling in gaps identified and ensuring the flow of chapters. Final stages of the process
included review of final manuscript, photo research and editorial work. The final manuscript was
then approved by the Steering Committee before design and printing.
Analytical framework and approach
The Zambezi Environment Outlook uses the Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR)
framework. DPSIR is an integrated environmental assessment and reporting framework which
aims to show the cause-effect linkages of human and natural action on the environment, and
in turn, the resultant change in the state of the environment and human wellbeing.
The end result of environmental assessment is more than just knowing the state of the
environment. It gives policymakers and other stakeholders guidance on how to better manage
the environment. In order to achieve this, information obtained from such reports should
be integrated with other social and economic data and information to assist in policy
formulation.
Application of the DPSIR framework was interactive rather than linear. That means
analysis could start from any of the elements of the framework as long as all the parts were
discussed, forming a story line. The elements are explained in detail below.
Drivers
These are indirect or underlying driving forces and fundamental processes in society which
drive activities having a direct impact on the environment. Examples of drivers and pressures
include demographics, culture, technology, agriculture, consumption, industry and
governance. For water availability, an example of a driver indicator is: internal renewable water
resources per capita/per year.
Pressures
Pressures are sometimes referred to as direct drivers. They include social and economic sectors
of the society. These factors are thought of as root causes of environmental problems and
trends. Pressures are intentional or unintentional by-products of other human activities (ie
air pollution). Examples include population, production and consumption, poverty,
urbanization, industrialization, technological developments, governance, regional conflicts
and globalization of trade. Examples of pressure indicators are: amount of water abstracted
in particular sectors, eg agriculture; Change in amount of water over a period of time, such
as 30 years. Drivers and pressures are starting points for tackling environmental issues.
State
Stateindicators show the current condition of the environment as a result of drivers and
pressures, such as polluted water resources, degraded land, or deforested areas. Examples of
state indicators are: fresh water available for use (household, agriculture, industry); percentage
of population with water supply.
Knowledge about the state and pressures is the starting point for planning how the
environment can be influenced to improve human wellbeing. Trend data is useful when
assessing the state of the environment.
Impacts
Impactindicators describe the ultimate effects of changes of state, for example, percentage of
children suffering from lead-induced health problems, mortality due to noise-induced heart
attacks, or number of people starving due to climate-change induced crop losses. Impact
indicators describe functional changes resulting from changes in the characteristics of the
environment. They may be environmental, social or economic, contributing to the vulnerability
of both people and the environment. Examples of impacts are: change to a forest cover, flooding,
drought, food insecurity, and land degradation. Examples of impact indicators are: change in
irrigated land area, number of water-related conflicts,
and frequency of occurrence of natural disasters, eg
floods and droughts. Understanding impacts is useful
in identifying policy options and actions to mitigate
and/address the issue.
Responses
Responses indicate societal or individual actions taken
to overcome, reduce, correct or prevent negative
environmental impacts or protect natural resources.
Examples of responses include regulatory action,
environmental or research expenditures, development
of guidelines/standards, changes in management
strategies, best practices as well as provision of
environmental information. Responses may be made
at different levels, eg environmental laws and
institutions at national level, and Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and institutions
at the regional and international levels. Examples of
State indicators are: number of water management
programmes in place, and level of implementation
of environmental management policies and
legislation. The DPSIR framework is shown in the
diagram.
Institutional framework for Zambezi Environment Outlook project
The Zambezi Environment Outlook project has three committees, each having a specific
mandate. These are the Steering, Technical and Coordination committees. The Steering
Committee which met twice over the projects duration, is made up of representatives from
Zambezi Basin countries at policy level. The Technical Committee comprises of
representatives from Zambezi Basin countries at technical level both from NASCs and from
SARDCs longstanding National NCCs. The Coordination Committee comprises of
ZAMCOM Secretariat, SADC Water Division, SARDC and GIZ.
Structure of the Zambezi Environment Outlook
The report has 10 chapters which are interlinked. It presents the basins physical environment
and how people interact with the natural resources. Crosscutting issues including gender and
youth, climate change, pollution, transboundary issues, indigenous knowledge systems, and
technological developments are mainstreamed in all chapters. In areas where gender
xxi
disaggregated data was available it was used. Emerging issues relevant to each chapter are
reviewed as well. Institutional framework and policy issues are included in each chapter, as
part of response measures in the DPSIR framework. Each chapter starts with an introduction,
which describes the sector/theme, value derived from the sector/theme, as well as
issues/challenges and opportunities.
The main body discusses issues/challenges and opportunities in detail by applying DPSIR
analytical framework. It is here where trend analysis and connection to the running theme is
done. Issues are from the thematic chapters such as water resources and biodiversity while
challenges and opportunities are from the sector chapters such as tourism and industrial
development.
Each chapter concludes by giving an analysis of policies and institutional arrangements,
measuring success in terms of reaching goals/targets.
Chapter 1 - Overview of the basin
The first chapter of the Zambezi Environment Outlook gives a general overview of the Zambezi
Basin, including socio-economic and biophysical conditions. Specific socio-economic issues
covered in the chapter are population, population density and distribution, population growth,
people and culture, gender roles in the basin, urbanization and poverty and development.
Biophysical features include climate and geographic conditions such as soils, topography and
biomes.
xxii
Chapter 2 Water resources

The second chapter takes a look at freshwater resources in the basin as well as its distribution
and management. The issues include freshwater availability and access, water withdrawals, nonconsumptive uses of water, inter-basin water transfers, water quality, aquatic invasive species,
wetlands and wetlands degradation, fisheries, transboundary issues, and other freshwater
resources. Gender, water and sanitation as well as youth and water issues are discussed. Challenges
faced by women and girls as they collect water from afar are discussed. An analysis is made of
womens access to wetland resources. Policies and institutional arrangements include Revised
SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses, Regional Strategic Action Plan Phase III, ZAMCOM
Agreement and IWRM Strategy, and regional cooperation in water resources management.
Chapter 3 - Land and Agriculture
The third chapter covers land and agriculture issues in the Zambezi River Basin. Role of land
as a factor for production and livelihoods is analysed, as well as trends associated with land
resources. Key land issues articulated include, tenure, access and equity with emphasis to
access and ownership by women as tillers of land, allocation of agricultural activities by
gender, degradation, and impact that land issues have on food security. On agriculture, the
chapter analyses trends in cereal production, land under agriculture and irrigation, as well as
livestock production. Emerging issues discussed include largescale acquisition of land for
biofuels. Regional policies on agriculture are discussed.
Chapter 4 Biodiversity and Forests
This chapter details the basins biodiversity and forest resources. Focus areas include
biodiversity species and richness, threats to biodiversity (habitat loss and species loss), wildlife
diversity, threatened species, protected areas, forest cover and change, biodiversity and forest
conservation, related institutional and policy frameworks, as well as transfrontier conservation
areas. The chapter discusses gender roles in forest issues such as women as basket makers, as
well as involvement in biodiversity and forest conservation.
Chapter 5 Climate Change and Variability
The chapter covers climate change and variability issues in the basin. The chapter looks at
rainfall and temperatures, Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, droughts, floods, adaptation,
mitigation, early warning systems, and disaster preparedness. Gender, youth and climate
change issues and indigenous knowledge systems in adaptation are discussed. The chapter
also focuses on related institutional and policy frameworks in place in the Zambezi River
Basin as well as the global protocols and agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the
United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Chapter 6 Energy
The chapter analyses energy developments in the Zambezi River Basin, including hydropower,
thermal energy as well as renewable energy sources such as biofuels. The chapter shows that
the majority of the population still depend on biomass as energy. The chapter takes a look at
institutional and policy developments in energy.
Chapter 7 Urbanization and Human Settlements
The chapter describes urbanization and human settlements in the basin, and key issues
associated with them, including waste management, pollution, sanitation, and access to
services such as roads and water.
Chapter 8 Tourism
Tourism is an important income earner in the Zambezi River Basin and depends largely on good
care of the environment. The chapter analyses tourism developments and trends, ecotourism,
cultural tourism, as well as related developments in the sector. Policies and institutional
frameworks related to tourism are analysed in the chapter. In addition, the chapter looks at threats
and opportunities in the tourism sector by gender groups such as women and youth.
Chapter 9 Industrial Development
The chapter looks at state of industrial developments in the basin, including manufacturing
and mining industries. The chapter discusses the wealth of mineral resources in the basin,
and how to take care of it. The chapter looks at impacts of industrial development on the
environment and the surrounding community, with particular emphasis to different gender
groups, and measures being taken to address these. Women venturing into mining were also
discussed. The chapter discusses chemicals and waste, and pollution as a result of industrial
activity and how this is being addressed.
Chapter 10 Scenarios
The scenarios chapter is a presentation and analysis of current and projected future trends, as
they relate to the resources described in the earlier chapters. The chapter gives a 30-year forwardlooking analysis of the way two possible scenarios could play out. The scenarios discussed are
the Conventional World (Business as Usual), and the Sustainability World (Policy Reform). The
former depicts plausible future environmental developments along a trajectory that represents a
continuation of current trends without major policy shifts. The latter depicts a future where
deliberate attempts are made to manage the environment in ways that meet nationally, regionally
and internationally agreed development goals with clear targets for basin sustainability.
Target audience
The expected audience for the Zambezi Environment Outlook includes:
Decision and policy makers at national, basin and regional level such as ministers,
permanent secretaries, heads of departments and other senior officials;
Academics and researchers on related issues, universities and research institutions;
Media editors of newspapers, magazines, newsletters, radio/television and online as well
as journalists, particularly those who write about environmental and regional issues;
Environmental organizations including NGOs, community-based organizations, water
resources and environmental specialists;
Educational institutions including teachers, students at secondary and tertiary level;
Private sector such as corporations, trade unions, financial institutions, industries,
mining, and tourism;
Cooperating partners, donors and development agencies; and
The public, anyone who is interested in the issues presented here.
xxiii
Map 1.1
Major River Basins in Africa
xxiv
GRID-Arendal 2011 in SADC/SARDC and others, Zambezi River Basin Atlas of the Changing Environment, 2012
ZAMBEZI BASIN OVERVIEW

Introduction
The Zambezi River Basin represents the
best of what southern Africa has in
terms of shared natural capital. The
river and its dense network of tributaries and associated ecosystems constitute
one of southern Africas most important natural resources. Within the basins
large expanse, there exists an integrated
ecosystem of natural resources that encompasses water, land and soils, forests
and wildlife.
The natural capital in the basin defines the economic activities that range
from agriculture and forestry, manufacturing and mining, to conservation
and tourism, as well as scientific monitoring and research. As a transboundary resource that is subject to
management and use by various sectoral and national interests, the Zambezi Basin is highly prone to
overexploitation and unsustainable
short gains rather than long-term sustainable development. Climate change,
coupled with human pressure on resources, has resulted in inevitable
changes in the basins environment.
The changes have had profound impacts on women, men and children,
who have different levels of capacity,
skills and ability to adapt due to
different roles, opportunities and
access to resources.
The first chapter of this report, the
Zambezi Environment Outlook, gives a general overview of the Zambezi Basin, including a socio-economic overview and
biophysical condition of the basin. Specific socio-economic issues covered in
this chapter are population, population
density and distribution, population

growth, people and culture, gender, urbanization, and poverty and development. Biophysical features include
climate and geographic conditions such
as soils and topography and biomes.
Physical Characteristics and

Hydrology of the Basin
The Zambezi River, together with its
tributaries, forms the fourth largest river
basin in Africa after the Congo, the Nile,
and the Niger River basins, covering
about 4.5 percent of the continent. The
Zambezi River Basin is located in central southern Africa between 8-20 S latitude and 16.5-36 E longitude. It drains
an area of almost 1.4 million square
kilometres, stretching across eight of the
15 Member States of the Southern
African Development Community
(SADC) Angola, Botswana, Malawi,
Mozambique Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The Zambezi Basin covers almost
all of the territory of Malawi, which at
94,080 sq km is the smallest basin state;
most of Zambia; and about half of
Zimbabwe, including the most densely
populated urban areas. Significant portions of Angola and Mozambique are
within the basin, but only small parts of
Botswana, Namibia and Tanzania.
With regard to the total Zambezi
Basin area, Zambia takes up the largest
portion with 41.7 percent, followed by
Angola (18.4%), Zimbabwe (15%),
Mozambique (12.8%), Malawi (8%),
Tanzania (2%), and Botswana and
Namibia at one percent each.
Figure 1.1
Zambezi River Basin Share by Country
SADC/SARDC and others, Zambezi River Basin Atlas of the Changing Environment, 2012
Cahora Bassa Dam
The Zambezi River flows over a distance of almost 3,000 km, dropping in
altitude from its source in the Kalene
Hills in the north-western district of
Solwezi in Zambia at 1,585 metres
above sea level, to its delta where it enters the Indian Ocean 200 kilometres
north of the Mozambican port of Beira.
The topography of the river basin
varies in altitude from sea level at its
delta to more than 1,500 metres on the
plateau, with some mountainous areas
rising above 2,500 metres. The plateaus

are deeply dissected by the river valleys
that form the tributaries of the Zambezi
River, opening out into wide floodplains
and plunging more than 100 metres into
the gorge at the Victoria Falls, with a
volume of water up to 550 million litres
a minute in full flood.
The Zambezi is the largest and most
shared river basin in southern Africa.
The river has three distinct stretches: the
Upper Zambezi from its source to Vic-
VICTORIA FALLS
Box 1.1
Mosi oa tunya
Chinotimba
Mapopoma
Amapopoma efolosi
The famous Victoria Falls, shared by Zambia and Zimbabwe, is known by the Kololo
inhabitants of the northern bank of the river as Mosi oa Tunya The smoke that thunders,
the Nambya people on the southern bank call it Chinotimba The place that thunders,
and that is now the name of a nearby suburb. The Zezuru name is Mapopoma which
imitates the sound made by the Falls, and the Ndebele description often used is
Amapopoma efolosi. The Falls were named by the first British visitors in honour of their
Queen Victoria and became widely identified by this name. The Victoria Falls is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The Falls are 1.7 kilometres wide 1,708 metres.
The depth from the highest point is 103 metres.
The volume of water is more than 550 million litres a minute in full flood.
Victoria Falls publicity says it is the largest curtain of falling water in the world.
The Main Falls drop 93 metres into the gorge with peak water flows of 700,000
cubic metres per minute, throwing up a spray that waters the surrounding rainforest
with its many unique species of trees, plants, birds and small mammals, and is visible
several kilometres away, as well as from the air. The flow is at its peak from February
through to June, as the waters from the vast northern catchment arrive. The clouds of
spray rise ever higher and can be seen 30km away.
The whole drainage system of southern/central Africa adds a further dimension to
the protracted birth and present course of the Zambezi River and the very existence of
Victoria Falls. Southern Africa is like an upturned dish. The coastal belt is generally narrow and low lying. Further inland this varying width of strip gives way to an escarpment,
precipitous in places, long and steep in others. Streams and rivers rise above the escarpment which is 1,000 to 1,400 metres above sea level. Some flow into lakes. Others must
find their way down the escarpment to the sea. As a result, all of the main rivers in
southern/central Africa have falls or rapids as they drop towards the sea. That is an inevitable part of the levelling out process. Victoria Falls is the most spectacular point in
this descent.
The river has slowly but inexorably been cutting backwards, exposing one weakness
after another in the basalt base and creating the zigzag pattern of gorges visible from
the air. Today, imperceptibly, we are witnessing new changes in the line of the river and
location of the Falls.
African Publishing Group guidebook to Victoria Falls by David Martin
toria Falls, the Middle Zambezi from

Victoria Falls to Cahora Bassa, and the
Lower Zambezi from Cahora Bassa to
the delta.
It has tributaries along both banks.
These include Luena, Luanguinga, Lungu-Bungo and Cuando in Angola;
Chobe in Botswana; Shire in Malawi;
Luiana in Namibia; Kapombo, Kafue
and Luangwa in Zambia; and Manyame,
Sanyati and Gwayi in Zimbabwe. It has
13 sub-basins, and most of these are
transboundary.
Four major dams are located in the
Zambezi River Basin. The Kariba
Dam and the Cahora Bassa Dam are
located on the Zambezi River with installed electricity generation capacity
of 1,350 and 2,075 Megawatts (MW),
respectively. The Kafue Dam, with an
installed capacity of 900MW, and
Itezhi-Tezhi, which acts as a storage
4
Table 1.1
Country
dam, are located on the Kafue River.

Both the Kariba and Kafue dams are
being upgraded and significant work is
underway towards planning new infrastructure in the basin.
Social and Cultural Environment

Population Growth and Density
The population of the Zambezi River
Basin was 31.7 million in 1998. This represented about one-third of the total
population of 100 million in the eight
basin states at the time. Ten years later,
in 2008, the basin population had
reached 40 million, with 7.5 million
living in the urban centres. The total
population of the eight countries of the
Zambezi Basin is expected to reach
168 million by 2025, of which some
51 million will be in the basin
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012).
Area and Population in the Zambezi Basin

Total Area
of Country
(sq km)
Angola
1 246 700
Botswana
581 730
Malawi
118 484
Mozambique
799 390
Namibia
824 290
Tanzania
945 987
Zambia
752 614
Zimbabwe
390 759
Total
5 659 054
Area of
Country
in Basin
(sq km)
As % of
Total
Area of
Country
As % of
Total Area
of Basin
Total
National
Population
2000
256 500
19 100
110 700
163 800
17 100
27 300
577 900
215 800
1 388 200
20.5
3.3
93.4
20.5
2.1
2.9
76.8
55.2
24.5
18.47
1.38
7.97
11.8
1.23
1.97
41.63
15.55
100
13 302 000
1 651 000
10 160 000
17 245 000
1 817 000
32 422 000
10 755 000
13 485 000
100 837 000
Projected
National
Population
2025
Population
in the
Basin 1998
Projected
Population
in Basin
2025
25 940 000
2 270 000
18 695 000
26 730 000
2 460 000
56 090 000
18 285 000
17 395 000
167 865 000
487 200
12 000
9 821 400
3 991 870
60 890
1 271 920
7 046 250
9 050 000
31 741 530
950 080
16 500
18 071 955
6 187 455
82 438
2 200 420
11 979 610
11 674 065
51 161 960
Table 1.2
Total Population of Zambezi Basin States

(000)
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2000
2001
13 399
1 651
10 475
17 242
1 816
31 900
9 886
11 696
13 816
1 622
10 816
17 656
1 830
32 884
10 089
11 666
SADC, SADC Statistical Yearbook, 2014
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
14 262 14 662 15 116

1 667
1 691 1 711
11 175 11 549 11 938
18 083 18 514 18 962
1 860
1 891 1 923
33 585 34 250 35 268
10 409 10 744 11 090
11 635 11 763 11 982
15 412
1 708
12 341
19 420
1 957
37 083
11 314
11 830
15 864
1 739
12 758
19 889
1 991
38 251
11 642
12 010
16 329
1 757
12 900
20 632
2 028
39 446
11 970
12 040
2008
2009
2010
2011
16 368 16 889
1 776
1 798
13 077 13 520
21 208 21 803
2 065
2 103
40 668 41 916
12 292 12 626
12 122 12 231
17 430
1 822
13 948
22 417
2 143
43 188
13 093
12 336
17 992
1 849
14 389
23 049
2 105
44 485
13 459
12 754
Table 1.3
Population Growth Rate

(%)
Country
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
3.02
2.40
3.20
2.37
0.77
3.10
2.05
-0.26
3.13
1.17
3.26
2.38
1.64
2.90
3.17
-0.27
2.73
1.17
3.29
2.39
1.67
2.90
3.22
1.10
3.00
1.17
3.31
2.39
1.69
2.90
3.22
1.86
1.92
1.17
3.32
2.39
1.77
2.90
3.17
-1.27
2.85
1.27
3.32
2.39
1.74
2.90
3.13
1.52
2.85
1.27
3.31
2.75
1.86
2.90
3.06
0.25
0.24
1.27
2.80
2.77
1.82
2.90
3.01
0.68
3.08
1.27
3.14
2.78
1.84
2.90
2.96
0.97
3.10
1.27
3.11
2.79
1.90
2.90
2.80
0.86
3.12
1.90
3.11
2.79
-1.77
2.90
3.10
3.39
SADC 2014
Population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period. A negative growth rate mean a decline
in population size, largely due to outward migration.
Figure 1.2
Population Ratios by Sex in the Zambezi Basin Countries
African Development Bank, African Statistical Yearbook, 2009
Table 1.3 on population growth rates

of the Zambezi Basin states shows that
Angola, Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia
having higher growth rates while
Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe having lower rates. The growth rate is moderate as the HIV and AIDS pandemic has
particularly affected the reproductive age
group (SADC and ZRA 2007). However,
the situation is changing as the impact of
HIV and AIDS is declining in most Zambezi Basin States.
There are disparities in population
densities and distribution within countries
in the basin. Population distribution is uneven, with large areas uninhabited and re-
served for wildlife. In 1998, the average

population density in the basin was 24
people per sq km, and this increased to
28.75 people per sq km in 2005 before
reaching 30.26 people per sq km in 2008
There are more women than men in
the Zambezi Basin, as illustrated in Figure 1.2. Most women reside in rural
areas while men are the majority in
towns. The gender-specific roles for
women and men are a reflection of societys culture, religion, socio-economic,
legal and development conditions. However, the roles are in constant change
due to dynamic interactions.
Map 1.2
Population Distribution in the Zambezi River Basin
6
Table 1.4
Population Density
(population/square kilometre)
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
10.7
2.8
111.1
21.6
2.2
33.8
13.1
29.9
11.1
2.8
114.7
22.1
2.2
34.8
13.4
29.9
11.4
2.9
118.5
22.6
2.3
38.9
13.8
29.8
11.8
2.9
122.5
23.2
2.3
39.4
14.3
30.1
12.1
2.9
126.6
23.7
2.3
40.6
14.7
30.7
12.4
2.9
130.9
24.3
2.4
41.9
15.2
30.3
12.7
3.0
135.3
24.9
2.4
43.2
15.7
30.7
13.1
3.0
139.9
25.8
2.5
44.5
16.2
30.8
13.1
3.1
138.7
26.5
2.5
45.9
16.6
31.0
13.5
3.1
143.4
27.3
2.6
47.3
17.1
31.3
14.0
3.1
147.9
28.0
2.6
48.8
17.4
31.6
14.4
3.2
152.6
28.8
2.5
50.2
17.4
32.6
SADC, SADC Statistical Yearbook, 2014
Table 1.4 shows that Malawi has

the highest population densities in the
basin at 111 people per sq km in 2000,
rising to 153 people per sq km in 2011.
Tanzania follows with 34 people per sq
km in 2000 and 50 people per sq km
in 2011. Botswana and Namibia have
the lowest population densities of 2.8
and 2.2 people per sq km in 2000; and

3.2 and 2.5 people per sq km in 2011,
respectively.
Increasing population densities
often result in unsustainable water
management practices and overexploitation of accessible freshwater
resources.
Antonio Klaus Kaarsberg, 2007
People and Cultures

The Zambezi Basin has a rich cultural
diversity. More than 30 ethnic groups
live in the basin, with at least a third of
these located in Zambia. Many groups
live along at least two national boundaries sharing common cultural traits
and vocabularies across borders, although dialectical differences exist.
The colonial boundaries demarcating
countries were arbitrary and often split
people and families across borders.
The ethnic groups in the Zambezi
Basin include the Lundas, Luchazes
and Tchokwes in Angola; the Tswana
in Chobe, Botswana; the Chewa, Tumbuka, Yao, Ngoni, Nyanja and Sena
cultures in Malawi; the Sena and
Makua in Mozambique; the Bemba,
Tonga, Lozi, Luyana, Lunda, Bunda
and Chewa/ Nyanja in Zambia; and
Shona, Ndebele and Tonga cultures in
Zimbabwe, as well as Nambya in Zimbabwe and Namibia (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012). People of many different ethnic groups live in urban centres as well as rural areas, and many
reside in a different country from their
country of origin, often marrying
across borders.
Traditional socio-economic activities include fishing, hunting, basketmaking and beekeeping. Many plants are
used traditionally as medicine. Some of
the important medicinal plants include
moringa, which many medical practitioners accept as an immune booster,
and the African potato Hypoxis hemerocallidea, a dark, bulbous and fibrous root
of the hypoxis plant. The moringa bush
and African potato are now grown and
sold commercially, thus reducing the impact from harvesting in the natural habitat. Although these plants are
commonly used for their potential
health benefits, experts caution that medicinal plants can be toxic if used improperly (SADC and SARDC 2008).
International Nyau
7
Dance Festival,
Vila Ulongwe,
Tete Province
Women mining gold

in the Zambezi Basin
Gender and Youth

Gender equality is firmly rooted in
SADCs regional integration agenda and
Member States support the fundamental
principle that both women and men must
be equally engaged in decision-making at
all levels and in all positions of leadership
(SADC and SARDC 2013). SADC thus
recognizes that the equal and meaningful
participation and representation of
women, who constitute more than half
of the populations of Member States, is
an important democratic advancement
for the region. This is reflected in the
SADC Protocol on Gender and Development signed and adopted by SADC
Heads of State and Government in August 2008, which was ratified by the requisite two-thirds of signatories and
entered into force in 2013. The Protocol
has eight clusters with 28 targets which
are monitored through the SADC Gender
Monitor, of which one is 50 percent
women representation in political and decision-making positions in the public and
private sectors by 2015.
In the Zambezi Basin, as in the rest
of southern Africa, there are gender-specific roles for women and men in socioeconomic activities such as water
resources development and management, agriculture, mining, fishing, hunting and gathering, forestry, tourism,
recreation, crafts, transport, and environmental management. Men of all ages are
generally responsible for attending social

and political meetings as well as hunting,
fishing and animal husbandry. Men often
make decisions on what crops to grow,
what land preparation procedures to use,
when to harvest, and how much crop is
to be sold, although that varies from culture to culture and has changed in areas
where the men were away for a long time
as migrant workers.
Women are generally responsible for
cooking, tilling gardens, fetching fuel,
wood and water, and keep small stock
such as goats. Within the fishing industry,
both men and women fish but the methods and fishing grounds vary by gender.
Methods also differ for collecting
firewood and water. Men use mainly
wheelbarrows and/or scotch carts,
while women carry the firewood and
water buckets on their heads. Women
also harvest renewable resources such as
thatching grass, reeds, and other grasses
to make mats, bowls, and crafts that are
sold both in the communities and on the
commercial market. Women have other
obligations which fall within their domestic domain such as food preparation
and the reproductive role, including
childcare (SADC and SARDC 2013).
Women play a major role in natural
resource management and utilization in
the Zambezi Basin. A study in the lower
Kafue River Basin showed that water use
in Zambias rural households is strongly
determined by the work of women. This
includes water collection, domestic water
use decisions, irrigation of orchards and
fields, and other practices are a primary
responsibility of women. The presence
of more women in the household implies
larger amounts of water collected, since
it is mainly the womens role to collect
water. The higher the number of women
in the household, the higher is the water
availability and use (Casarotto and Kappel
2003). Young women and girls are often
married at a young age and are expected
to provide children, water and wood.
Despite significant role of women

in agriculture, very few women own
land in the Zambezi Basin. Although
current laws do not discriminate against
women or youths to own land in Zambia, for example, women still lack access
to land due to customary practices that
encourage male dominance (Environment Council of Zambia 2008). This is
the situation in most basin states.
Urbanization
Most countries in thebasin are urbanizingrapidly, putting pressure on finite resources as well as on infrastructure.
People migrate from rural areas to urban
areas in search of better opportunities
for employment, health care and education, as well as expecting an improvement in their standard of living. For this
reason, large populations of youth live
in urban areas, working or looking for
work. Major urban areas in the Zambezi
Basin include Luena in Angola; Kasane
in Botswana; Tete in Mozambique; Katima Mulilo in Namibia; and Mbeya in
Tanzania; as well as most urban centres
in Zambia including the capital city of
Lusaka, all urban areas in Malawi and
most in Zimbabwe, including Harare
(SADC and ZRA 2007).
The Basins Natural Capital and

Productive Resources Base
Climate
The Zambezi River Basins climate is
much influenced by the prevailing wind
systems that include the south-easterlies,
Congo Air, the north-easterlies, and the
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. Related to these climatic features is the
presence of large water bodies, which
play a role in modifying weather
conditions (SADC/SARDC and
others 2012).
The temperatures across the river
basin vary according to elevation, and to
a much lesser extent, latitude. Mean
monthly temperatures for the coldest
month, July, vary from around 13C for
higher elevation areas in the south of
the basin to some 23 C for the low elevation areas around the delta in
Mozambique. The map shows that the
coolest area is the south-eastern part,
some of which is in Zambia and the rest
in the extreme south-eastern area of the
basin in Zimbabwe. Ground frost occurs locally in some parts of the basin
during June/July as daily minimum temperatures in some higher elevation areas
can fall below 0C.
Large water bodies

modify weather
conditions
Map 1.3
Zambezi River Basin Average Temperatures
10
Mean daily temperatures for the

warmest months (October and November) vary from 23 C in the highest elevation areas to 31 C in the lower parts
of the Zambezi valley (Chenje
2000).The basin experiences a high daily
range of temperatures, an average of
about 10 C in the rainy season and as
much as 20 C in the dry season in the
southern parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe. The annual total evaporation
ranges between 1,800 and 2,000 mm averaging about five mm per day but can
be as high as 9-10 mm per day in September and October. As a result, about
65 percent of all the rain evaporates as
soon as it falls, 20 percent is lost through
evapotranspiration, and an average of
14 percent is available as surface runoff
(Chenje 2000).
Map 1.4
Water Resources
The Zambezi River and its dense
network of tributaries discharges an
average of 2,600 cu m/s of water into
the Indian ocean, in the same range as
the Nile at 2,830 cu m/s and the
Rhine at 2,200 cu m/s (Beck and
Bernauer 2011).
The available surface water resources originate from rainfall. Less
than 10 percent of the mean annual
rainfall in the basin contributes to the
flow of the Zambezi River into the Indian Ocean. Thus more than 90 percent of mean annual rainfall in the
basin evaporates and returns to the
earths atmosphere. There are significant variations and uneven distribution
in the available water resources from
one area to another and over time.
Zambezi River Basin Topography and Hydrology
SARDC IMERCSA, I. Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa, 2015
11
Rainfall is greatest in the north, with

an extensive area receiving over 1,000
mm per year, and declines towards the
south, where most areas receive less
than 700 mm per year (SADC and ZRA
2007). In general, there is a single rainy
season in the year. Rainy seasons are
longer in the north and northeast, and
much shorter in the southwest
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012). Average annual rainfall across the river
basin varies from 500 mm per year in
the extreme south and southwest part
of the basin to more than 1,400 mm per
year in the Upper Zambezi and
Kabompo sub-basins, at the northeastern shores of Lake Malawi/
Niassa/Nyasa in Tanzania, and in the
southern border area where Malawi
meets Mozambique (Chenje 2000).
12
Map 1.5
Average Rainfall in the Zambezi River Basin
About 20 percent of the total basin

runoff is used, mainly by evaporation
from hydropower reservoirs, followed
by irrigation and environmental use.
Domestic and industrial water supply,
though important, presently constitute
less than 0.2 percent of available surface
water resources (Euroconsult-MottMacDonald 2008).
Navigation on the Zambezi River is
both international and local. The main
international transport routes are the
Kazungula and Luangwa-Kanyemba,
while major national routes are in the
upper Zambezi River and on Lake
Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. There are also
small crossings that provide access to
major markets. There are major crossings on the Kabompo, Kafue and
Chobe Rivers in Namibia and Botswana,
and on the Shire River in Mozambique

and Malawi. Malawi, Mozambique and
Tanzania, which share Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, all use the lake for navigation. The section of the Zambezi
running 570 km from Mphanda Nkuwa
in Mozambique to the Indian Ocean is
the longest navigable portion of the
river (SADC/SARDC and others 2012).
genera Brachystegia, Julbernardia or Isoberlinia with a well-developed grass layer.

Other widespread vegetation types are
mopane woodland dominated by
mopane, mosaics of various types of
woodland, dry forest, including that
Landcover along
Blantyre-Chikwawa road
in Malawi
Land and Forest Cover

Almost 75 percent of the land area in
the basin is forest and bush. Cropped
land with mostly rain-fed agriculture
covers just 13 percent of the land area,
and grassland covers about 8 percent of
the land area (SARDC 2012).
Almost half of the basin is classified as wetter or drier miombo woodland, part of the Zambezian biome.
Miombo is dominated by trees of the
13
Map 1.6
Zambezi River Basin Vegetation
dominated by economically important

hardwoods such as Zambezi Teak, with
grassland and open woodland dominated by various species of Acacia.
Land cover and land use have great
impacts on water resources, as they affect
how precipitation translates into runoff,
infiltration, evaporation, and the quality
of the water (Hirji and others 2002).
Biodiversity
The Zambezian biome covers 95 percent of the total basin area while the
Montane, Coastal and Congolian biomes cover the remainder (Timberlake
2000). The Zambezi Basin is home to
more than 6,000 species of flowering
plants, 650 species of birds, and 200
species of animals. In addition, 165
species of freshwater fish are recorded
14
in the basin and more than 500 endemic

species (mostly cichlids) in Lake
Malawi/Nyassa/Niassa (SARDC 2003).
The Zambezi Basin is renowned for
its assemblage of large mammal species
such as elephant, buffalo, giraffe and lion,
and its dwindling rhino population. There
is a preponderance of browsers rather
than grazers as the basin is mostly woodland rather than the highly productive
grasslands associated with the East
African Rift Valley. Some species, such as
the Colobus monkey, Samango monkey,
Blue duiker and various rodents, are restricted to moist forests in the eastern part
of the basin, while the tree pangolin is
found only in the gallery forests of the
Zambezi headwaters. A group of particular interest, almost endemic to the
palaeo-basin, is the Lechwe antelope. Although often considered as a subspecies,
it is likely that the three existing groups
should be considered full species (F. Cotterill, pers. comm). The Black lechwe is
endemic to the Lake Bangweulu area in
northern Zambia, as was the now-extinct
Roberts lechwe, which was part of the
palaeo-Upper Zambezi, and the Kafue
lechwe is restricted to the Kafue Flats in
southern Zambia.
The Zambezi Basin has several large
transboundary protected areas where
two or more countries participate in
managing shared natural resources. The
creation of Trans Frontier Conservation
Areas (TFCAs) in the basin is regarded
as one of the anchors for regional economic integration, socio-economic development and poverty reduction
through multi-destination and crossborder tourism (SADC and SARDC
2008). The TFCAs in the Zambezi
Basin are at different stages of development with some Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) signed to facilitate their
establishment while other conservation
agreements are still at the conceptual
phase. Among those with MOUs in the
Zambezi River Basin are the KavangoZambezi TFCA, covering Angola,
Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Malawi-Zambia TFCA.
Those still at conceptual stage include
the ZIMOZA covering areas in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia; the
Selous-Niassa TFCA, covering parts of
Mozambique and Tanzania; the Lower
Zambezi-Mana Pools between Zambia
and Zimbabwe; and the Liuwa PlainKameia TFCA which includes areas in
Angola and Zambia (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012).
The threats to biodiversity in the

basin are numerous including the expansion of cropland that closely followed
the eradication of tsetse fly (Glossina sp.)
into areas that had been occupied predominantly by wildlife. In the Zambezi
Valley the tsetse eradication has paved
way for expansion of areas under cultivation mainly with the introduction of
cotton, which led to land cover changes
and wildlife habitat loss (Cumming and
Lynam 1997; Murwira and others 2010).
The other threats include land clearance
for agriculture and expansion of human
settlement, dam construction, fires, and
invasion by alien species (SADC/
SARDC and others 2012). The invasion
of pines and wattle trees into the montane grasslands of Mt. Mulanje, the introduction of the Nile tilapia fish
(Oreochromisniloticus) to the waters of the
Middle Zambezi, and Kariba weed
(Salviniamolesta) into the Chobe system
and Lake Kariba are key examples of invasion (Timberlake 2000).
Soils
The dominant soil types in the Zambezi
Basin are acid, leached out tropical soils
of low fertility known as tropical red
soils (ferralsols) derived from biologically
old or ancient rock types characteristic
of the basin. Fertile soils are located in
areas where younger geological strata
form the base or where humic materials
are found. Some of the good quality
soils are often found in the river valleys.
The fertility of the basin soils is inherently low. However, soils such as black
cotton that are of very high quality are
also found in the basin. Soil classification in the basin is often difficult because the basin states use different
terminology and classification systems.
Mineral resources
The Zambezi Basin is endowed with diverse mineral deposits, including copper, diamonds and gold.
Areas around the towns of

Chegutu, Kadoma and Kwekwe in Zimbabwe are heavily involved in mining
gold and platinum, while all the urban
areas in Zambias Copperbelt are
involved
in
copper
mining
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012). In
Zambia, large-scale mining is concentrated in the Copperbelt province.
Socio-Economic Characteristics
Agriculture
The economies of many African countries are agro-based and depend largely
on rain-fed agriculture. Agriculture
plays a critical role in socio-economic
development in the basin. Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe together have 86 percent of the estimated 5.2 million
hectares of the land area cultivated annually in the basin (Euroconsult-MottMacDonald 2008). Zimbabwe has 56
percent of its cultivated area in the
Basin, Zambia 76 percent and Malawi
90 percent. The most commonly
farmed crops are maize (Zea mays L.),
sorghum (sorghum bicolor L.), grain
legumes such as common bean
(phaseoulus vulgaris L.), groundnut
(arachishypogaea), cassava (manihotesculenta),
sweet potatoes (ipomeabatatas L.) and a
variety of vegetables.
The likely benefits from farming are
threatened by frequent crop failures due
to unreliable climatic conditions charac-
Red soils in Gokwe,

Zimbabwe
15
Conservation
16 agriculture systems
improve crop
yields.
terised by frequent droughts. Good crop

yields depend on the availability of adequate moisture in the soil particularly
during the sensitive stages of a crops
life cycle. Deprivation of the required
soil moisture to plants during the critical
growth periods may lead to stressed
crop development resulting in reduced
crop yields which will in turn increase
the vulnerability of the poor.
Research indicates that there is an increased need for more resilient, waterconserving, productive and sustainable
agriculture cropping systems (Thierfelder
and others 2010). The use of conservation agriculture systems as practised in
Zambia is known to lead to higher rainfall

infiltration, soil moisture, a gradual increase of soil carbon and improvements
in crop yields in comparisons with conventional systems over time.
The total area under irrigation in the
Zambezi Basin was 171,621 hectares in
1995, and more recent data for the basin
seems unavailable. Although UN FAO
figures show that total irrigation in
southern Africa increased by some 25
percent in the decade from 1994 to
2,063,427 hectares in 2004, this would
vary so much from country to country
as to make it difficult to project
data solely for the basin. A later study in
Zambia, which makes up almost 42
percent of the basin, shows that less
than 30 percent of agricultural land suitable for irrigation has been developed
and recommends investment in this
sector due to considerable potential
(UN FAO 2014). More than 90 percent
of irrigated agriculture is concentrated
in the four sub-basins, that is, Tete,
Shire, Kariba and Kafue. The irrigation
potential in the basin is more than 3
million hectares, of which only 5 percent is already developed (Tilmant and
others 2012).
Mining
The mining sector plays a significant
role to the economies of most of the
basin countries. Minerals include cop-
Table 1.5
Agricultural Land in the Zambezi Basin
Country
Agricultural
rea in 2007
(sq km)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
575 900
258 520
49 700
488 000
388 050
255 890
154 500
2 170 560
UNSTATS 2007
% change
% of total
since 1990 land area
in2007
(sq km)
0.3
-0.6
17.8
2.3
0.4
10.4
18.8
46.2
45.6
52.8
62.1
47.1
34.4
Arable land
in 2007
(sq km)
33 000
2 500
30 000
44 500
8 000
52 600
32 300
202 900
Land under
permanent
crops in 2007
(sq km)
2 900
20
1 200
3 500
50
290
1 200
9 160
Land under
permanent
meadows and
pastures in
2007 (sq km)
540 000
256 000
18 500
440 000
380 000
203 000
121 000
1 958 500
per, gold, chrome, diamonds, coal and

asbestos. The principal mining countries
in the basin are Angola, Zambia and
Zimbabwe; while Botswana, Malawi,
Mozambique, Namibia and Tanzania
have little or no mining activity within
the basin.
Apart from contributing revenues
to the basins economies, mining has
played a major role in providing and extending infrastructure, boosting other
sectors of the economy (Chenje 2000).
Railways, roads, power generation facilities, and water supply plants have been
built primarily to service mining operations in different parts of the basin.
There is significant small-scale mining in sub-basins such as the Luangwa
River, Lake Kariba, and the Kafue and
Kabompo Rivers. This includes gold
panning, a poverty-driven activity that is
estimated to support the livelihoods of
about 2 million people in the riparian
states of the Zambezi Basin (Hirji and
others 2002).
Despite the contribution to national
economies, mining activities contribute
to serious environmental problems. The
impacts can either be chemical or physical. Physical impacts include salinization, siltation, changed patterns of water
use, excavation of large pits, diversion
of river streams and deforestation (Ashton and others 2010). The surface
trenching using picks and shovels results
in hazards for humans, domestic and
wild animals as well as reducing river
frontage. (Shoko and Love 2005).
The chemical impacts include
changes in acidity or alkalinity, and release of arsenic, mercury and other
heavy metals in rivers causing
water pollution (Euroconsult-MottMacDonald 2008). All the streams that
drain mining areas in the Copperbelt region release waste into the Kafue River
or its tributary, the Kafubu River. These
are the main sources of drinking water
for most towns in the Copperbelt.
Energy
The bulk of the basins total energy
needs is derived from biomass. The
wood fuel energy is used mainly for domestic purposes, including cooking and
lighting. Other rural industries that consume significant amount of woodfuel
include brick making, lime production,
fish smoking, beer brewing, coffee, tea
and tobacco drying.
Renewable energy resources such as
hydroelectric power are available in the
basin, as are non-renewable resources
such as thermal power, petroleum and
natural gas. New technologies such as
wind and solar energy are also gaining
prominence.
The Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams
and Kafue Gorge provides the bulk of
basins hydropower generating 2,075
MW, 1,470 MW and 990 MW, respectively (SADC/SARDC and others
2012). The live storage of Kariba Dam
accounts for more than 50 percent of
the total live storage of the existing
reservoirs, while Kariba and Cahora
Bassa dams together account for about
95 percent.
Lumwana copper mine

in Zambia
17
Cahora Bassa Dam
18
Wildlife is one of the

major tourist attractions
in the Basin.
Tourism
The wide variety of landforms and vegetation zones has resulted in a remarkably high diversity of ecosystem and
species in the Zambezi River Basin. The
major tourist attractions are therefore
associated with natural resources, and
the potential for other attractions such
as historic sites has not yet been tapped.
The major tourism areas in the
Zambezi Basin are national parks and
nature reserves, with wildlife and
scenery as the major attractions. The Big
Five mammals among the major tourist
attractions include elephant, buffalo, rhinoceros, leopard and lion, and there is
also an abundance of other animals
such as giraffe, zebra, painted dog, and
a wide variety of antelope. Tourism, especially game viewing, sport hunting,
and fishing is an important economic
sector in Zambezi Basin states.
Some areas with high tourism potential such as Victoria Falls already have
extensive access infrastructure such as
airports and road linkages that could be
expanded to be a regional and international tourism gateway; while others
such as Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa lack
infrastructure in all three countries that
share the lake Malawi, Mozambique
and Tanzania. These areas offer an at-
tractive opportunity to potential investors. Such a transformation would require that the governments provide
investors with appropriate infrastructure
support and incentives. The Zambezi riparian governments recognize the economic benefit of tourism and have
therefore made it a priority.
Implementation of strategies relating to Joint Marketing of the Region as
a single destination continues under the
auspices of the Regional Tourism Organization of Southern Africa (RETOSA), and SADC Member States
continue to showcase the region at international exhibitions. The slow pace
of the proposed UNIVISA continues to
be seen as an impediment to tourism
growth and the regions competitiveness
as an attractive destination (SADC
2013), although Zambia and Zimbabwe
have begun implementation in 2014.
Industrial Development
Most countries in the Zambezi Basin are
urbanizing rapidly, and this has resulted
in an increase in industrial activities,
leading to generation of waste discharges into river systems. Industries in
most of the urban areas dispose hazardous waste into rivers, thereby compromising water quality. Although it is
difficult to assess the amount of pollution originating from industries on the

Zambezi tributaries, there is clear evidence that highly urbanised sub-basins
such as Kafue and Kariba are discharging waste into the Zambezi river system
(Euroconsult-Mott-MacDonald 2008).
In Zambia, annual waste generation
from industrial, commercial and domestic activities was estimated at 2 million
tonnes in December 2006 (Environmental Council of Zambia 2008).
Effluent discharge is also a matter of
concern in the Zambezi Delta. The Sena
Sugar industry at Marromeu releases high
amounts of biodegradable waste and high
amounts of wastewater into the Zambezi
water system. The effluents are likely to
increase organic loading in the Zambezi
River, thus negatively affecting the aquatic
ecosystem. In Harare, the Mukuvisi River
that drains into Manyame is generally
considered the most heavily polluted river
system in Zimbabwe. The river flows
through both industrial and residential
areas of Harare.
In the Tanzanian part of the basin,
the quality of water is generally good except for the pollution of Kiwira River
by the Kiwira Coal Mine and Songwe
River by Mbeya Cement (Ministry of
Water, Energy and Minerals 2008).
Current Threats
Climate Change Vulnerability
The Zambezi Basin is no exception
when it comes to climate change, but
the level of vulnerability differs as
there is a diversity of impacts across
the basin, including the occurrence of
the disasters. For example, the water
sectors Angola, Malawi, Mozambique,
Tanzania and Zambia are not as vulnerable to water scarcity as Botswana,
Namibia, and Zimbabwe. Although
Malawi and Namibia have sufficient
resources, much is inaccessible to most
parts of the country. The level of vul-
nerability is impacted by both natural

and human factors, and there is a relationship between vulnerability due to
climate change and poverty.
Poor people are often the ones to
suffer injury, loss, death, or harm from
droughts, floods, or other extreme
events and they have less capacity to recover. This is due to lack of resources to
cope with the climatic challenges. Vulnerability to climate change is therefore
a combination of factors that render
some people and communities vulnerable to even small changes, especially
those who are unable to diversify to
other means of survival and livelihoods.
Also vulnerable are those who lack access to productive land, and those who
have been displaced from their homes
due to floods, conflicts, or famine without receiving adequate humanitarian assistance (SARDC and HBS 2010).
Water Scarcity
There has been growing consensus that
demand for water is outgrowing existing
means of supply and it is likely that climate change may inject yet greater uncertainty into future water availability.
The total water supply is constant at
global level, though local supply is subject to various factors including climatic
change and uncertainties in rainfall. Various factors that further compound the
likelihood of water scarcity at basin level
19
Climate change
can cause increase
in the frequency
of droughts.
Over-exploitation of
water resources can
cause water scarcity.
20
are increasing population density, economic activity, and unsustainable water

management practices, similar factors to
those that have caused over-exploitation of the more easily accessible freshwater resources around the globe
(Vrsmarty and others 2010).
The current consumptive water use
in the Zambezi River Basin is estimated
around 15-20 percent of total runoff
(SADC and SARDC 2008). Based on
user types, the largest consumptive
water users are dams evaporation
through impoundment, about 13 cubic
kilometres per year; and irrigated agriculture at about 1.5 cubic kilometres per
year. This implies many development
possibilities, particularly for irrigated
agriculture and hydropower production.
Development plans of the riparian
countries in fact suggest that consumptive water use might increase to up to 40
percent of total runoff by 2025 (SADC
and SARDC 2008).
There is a wide diversity of projected water scarcity among basin states,
with Botswana, Malawi and Namibia
being the most likely to experience serious water stress within the next decade,
and water demand is likely to develop
unevenly across the basin over the next
few decades (Hirji and others 2002).
Disaster Risk
The increase in the frequency, complexity and magnitude of natural disasters
increases the vulnerability of communities in the basin. Southern African is
characterized by an extreme variability
in rainfall which has been associated
with a steady rise in the number of
drought events over the past century, re-
sulting in a more frequent drought cycle.

Between 1988 and 1992 the region experienced more than 15 droughts and
these had negative impacts on the
human population (Tirivarombo 2011).
Although year-to-year droughts
have been experienced, especially in the
last decade, the current decade has seen
floods of unprecedented magnitudes
(SARDC and HBS 2010). Historical
records indicate that extensive droughts
affected the Zambezi Basin in 1981-82,
1986-87, 1991-92, 1994-95, 2001-02 and
2012-13, while floods ravaged parts of
the Basin in 1999-2000, 2005-06, 200709 and 2014-15 (SADC and SARDC
and others 2008, ZAMCOM and
SARDC 2015).
Storms due to tropical cyclones
from the Indian Ocean also affect the
Zambezi River Basin, and cyclone-induced floods have become more frequent. This aligns with predictions by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), based on a range of
models indicating that tropical cyclones
will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation associated within increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (IPCC
2008). While the Zambezi Basin experiences seasonal and variable rainfall, resulting in cyclical spells of drought and
intermittent floods, the recent increase
in the variability and intensity of
drought and floods is attributed to climate change (SARDC and HBS 2010).
Impact of Flooding and Droughts
There has been concerted effort within
the basin to mitigate against disasters
through initiatives for disaster risk reduction, but these are often different perspectives on how to do this. The
government of Mozambique, for example, embarked on a resettlement programme following the 2007 flood that
affected 170,000 people in lower Zambezi. About 110,000 people (56,000
households) were displaced, but the re-
settlement programme prompted debate

from international donors who promoted a Living with the Floods strategy which proposed flood-management
practices that allow people to continue
to live in flood-prone areas and take advantage of the fertile soils that result
from the floods. The development of
early warning systems and generating
awareness about timely evacuation were
elements of the strategy. It was argued
that living in flood-prone areas in
Mozambique is not a matter of choice
but a matter of poverty.
The government of Mozambique,
however, favours a flood-free approach to risk reduction which stresses
the need to resettle people elsewhere
who are living on the floodplains, arguing that continued habitation would
pose higher risks to human life and that
recurrent costs would eventually outweigh the costs of permanent resettlement. In January 2008, another 334
families (about 1670 people) from
Mozambique were forced into displacement camps in neighbouring Malawi,
after flooding of the Shire River, one of
the main tributaries of the Zambezi
River (SARDC and HBS 2010).
Pollution
The infestation of the Zambezi Basin by
aquatic weeds is a problem of regional
scale, which has occurred in several subbasins, such as Kafue, Lake Kariba, Lake
Chivero, Kwando-Linyanti and the Lower
Shire.Waterweeds thrive when nutrients
are present in comparatively high concentrations and are therefore a problem
closely related to eutrophication. In some
watercourses, eg Lake Chivero in Zimbabwe, Kafue Gorge Reservoir in Zambia
and Lake Kariba, this problem had
reached critical levels until pragmatic mitigation measures were undertaken. Attention is therefore now focused on causative
factors such as land use on the upstream
catchment.
There is growing evidence that
aquatic weed infestation is seriously affecting rural livelihoods around Lake
Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. The lake is
home to 800-1,000 endemic fish
species that could seriously suffer from
such an event. In the Shire sub-basin
the cover of weed has made lagoons
and marshes dry out faster, exacerbating low water-levels during droughts.
This reduced fish stock and deprived
local people of a major source of livelihood. The weed mats also harbours
crocodiles and snakes, making it difficult for women to fetch water and do
washing in infested places. The problem of aquatic weeds is not unique to
the Zambezi Basin but has occurred
throughout the SADC region.
Floods in Mozambique
21
Interventions for Basin

Development
Greater cooperation between basin
states is needed to ensure sustainable
utilization of shared resources and to
achieve regional and basin objectives of
economic development and poverty reduction. An analysis of the Zambezi
Basin reveals that the yearly average cost
of non-cooperation could reach
US$350 million per year, which is 10
percent of the annual benefits derived
from the system (Tilmant and Kinzelbach 2012).
To advance sustainable management
and utilization of the basins resources,
several bilateral and multilateral agreements have been put in place at regional
level to manage transboundary waters,
notably the Revised Protocol on Shared
Watercourses in the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) concluded in 2000. This facilitated the Agreement on the Establishment of the
Zambezi Watercourse Commission, concluded by the basin riparian states in 2004.
Another institution established previously
is the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)
founded in 1987 through a bilateral agreement between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
These and other policies and institutional
arrangements are discussed briefly below.
Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses
Fifteen major watercourses in the
SADC region are shared across borders
by two or more Member States, a situation that demands their cooperation for
sustainable development of these precious resources. To this end, SADC
Member States approved a Protocol on
Shared Watercourses in the SADC in
August 1995 which was revised in August 2000. After ratification, the Revised
Protocol on Shared Watercourses in the
SADC Region entered into force on 22
September2003.
The Protocol aims to foster closer

cooperation among Member States for
the protection, management, and use of
shared watercourses in the region. Member States agreed to cooperate on policy
and projects, and exchange information
on shared watercourses, consulting each
other and collaborating on initiatives that
balance development of the river basins
with conservation of the environment.
The Protocol contains an institutional
framework that sets out a Water Sector
Organ, its committees and units, and its
duties for the joint protection and development of shared watercourses in southern Africa (SADC 2013c).
A key intervention area resulting from
the Protocol was the establishment of
the Zambezi Watercourse Commission
(ZAMCOM) by the basin states that
share the Zambezi River. The ZAMCOM agreement entered into force in
June 2011. As agreed by the basin states,
the headquarters was formally established in Harare, Zimbabwe in 2014.
ZAMCOM was established to promote the equitable and reasonable utilization of the water resources of the
Zambezi watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof , as stipulated in the
ZAMCOM agreement and in accordance
with the revised protocol on shared watercourses. The main ZAMCOM objective is to assist the riparian states to
achieve regional cooperation and integration through sharing benefits from the
cooperative development and sustainable
management of the water resources of
the Zambezi River. The envisaged promotion of such cooperation is significant
towards peace and prosperity of the basin
and southern Africa as a whole.
ZAMCOM is governed by three
main organs the Council of Ministers,
the ZAMCOM Technical Committee
(ZAMTEC), and the Secretariat (ZAM-
SEC). The Council of Ministers is the decision-making arm, while ZAMTEC is a

technical advisory body. The ZAMCOM
Secretariat, headed by an Executive Secretary, provides overall management, supported by a Project Implementation Unit
and working groups components
(SARDC and ZAMCOM 2013). To ensure effective participation by stakeholders, the National Stakeholders
Coordination Committees (NASCs) have
been established in each of the eight riparian states. NASCs fall under the working groups of the ZAMCOM structure to
ensure that decisions at national level
reach the basin-level discussions.
SADC Regional Water Policy
The Regional Water Policy for the
SADC (2005) is aimed at providing a
framework for sustainable, integrated
and coordinated development, utilization, protection and control of national
and transboundary water resources in
the SADC region. This policy is intended to support the SADC Common
Agenda of socio-economic development and regional integration and improvement of the quality of life of all
people in the region (SADC 2013d).
The policy includes nine thematic
areas, addressing key water resources management issues and challenges, such as regional cooperation in water resources
management, water for development and
poverty reduction, water for environmental sustainability, security from water-related disasters, as well as integrated water
resources management and development.
Within each of these areas, activities are
identified which contribute to the achievement of the strategic objectives: Water Resources Information and Management,
Water Resources Development and Management, Regional Water Resources Institutional Framework, Stakeholder
Participation and Capacity Building, and
Financing Integrataed Water Resources
Management (IWRM) in the Region
(SADC 2013d).
SADC Regional Strategic Action Plan

The SADC Regional Strategic Action
Plan for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management (RSAP III)is
the SADC Water Sectors implementation
plan, which gives practical effect to application of the Revised SADC Protocol
on Shared Watercourses. RSAP III (20112015) focuses on three strategic areas,
which are water governance, infrastructure development and water management
(SADC 2013c).
IWRM Strategy for the Zambezi
River Basin
The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River
Basin is a set of medium-to-long-term
measures in support of integrated water
resources management. These measures
address the main issues and challenges
for the development and management
of the water resources of the Zambezi
River to enable the sustainable socioeconomic development of the Basin in
particular and the region as a whole
(SADC 2013a).
The Regional Indicative Strategic
Development Plan
The Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) is a comprehensive development and implementation
framework established to guide
the SADC regional integration agenda
over a period of fifteen years (initially
2003-2018) and to provide clear strategic
direction with respect to SADC programmes, projects and activities in line
with the SADC Common Agenda and
strategic priorities, as enshrined in
the SADC Treaty of 1992. The ultimate
objective of the plan is to deepen regional integration to accelerate poverty
eradication and attain economic and
non-economic development goals
(SADC, 2013b). The revised RISDP was
approved in 2015 after a period of region-wide consultation and review.
23
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2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.
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Magadza, C. H. D. 2010. Environmental State of Lake Kariba and Zambezi River Valley: Lessons learned and not learned. Lakes &
Reservoirs: Research & Management 15, 167-192.
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Sector ICP Collaboration Portal. www.sadc.int
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UNEP. Gaborone, Harare www.sardc.net /www.sadc.int
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Zambeze 2000; Summary/Sumrio. SADC, IUCN, SARDC, ZRA. Maseru, Harare, Lusaka
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of the Earth 31.
WATER RESOURCES
Introduction
Water is a key strategic natural resource in
the Zambezi River Basin. The presence
of water governs the location of homes
and cities. It is a necessary input for most
productive activities including agriculture,
forestry, mining, commercial, and livestock development, energy production,
tourism, and wildlife conservation, among
others. Too much water or a shortage of
water can result in deaths among people,
animals and plants.
Water is also the driving force in wetland ecosystems, playing a critical role in
the biosphere. The distribution, occurrence and availability of water resources
Map 2.1
varies across the basin and its availability

depends on rainfall. The basins water resources are stored in natural lakes such as
Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and other
smaller lakes, and in artificial lakes such as
Lake Kariba and Cahora Bassa, and many
rivers and streams.
The key issues related to water resources in the basin are water availability,
water use and access, water quality,
groundwater depletion, and wetland
degradation. The contribution of women
to water resources management is an essential factor in the basin, as women are
both managers and primary users of
water. Policies and institutional arrange-
SARDC IMERCSA, I. Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa, 2015. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is shared by Malawi,
Mozambique and Tanzania with national boundaries in the lake, which is known by a different name in each country.
25
ments include the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses, the Regional
Strategic Action Plan Phase III, the
ZAMCOM Agreement, and other regional cooperation instruments in water
resources management.
Water Availability
Water availability in the Zambezi Basin
is largely determined by rainfall occurrence. The average annual rainfall over
the Zambezi River Basin is about 950
mm per year, but varies from more than
1,400 mm per year in the northern parts
Table 2.1
26
to less than 600 mm per year in the low

lying south/southwestern portion of
the Basin. It is characterized by considerable variation across the Basin and
over time. Droughts of several years
duration have been recorded almost
every decade and large floods occur
with similar frequency.
The sources of surface water resources available in the Zambezi River
Basin are shown in Table 2.1 and illustrated in Figure 2.1. Current and projected consumptive use is shown in
Table 2.2 in relation to the available
mean annual runoff.
Sources of Surface Water Resources in the Zambezi River Basin
Name
Annual
(cu m/s)
Zambezi River in Angola

Zambezi River at Kariba
Kabombo River Basin
Kafue River Basin
Luangwa River Basin
Shire River Basin
Zambezi River at Indian Ocean
670
1 350
260
350
620
500
3 600
Wet season
(cu m/s)
900
1 500
400
450
1 500
550
5 000
Dry season
(cu m/s)
150
900
120
100
90
360
1 500
Shela, O.N., Management of Shared River Basins: The Case of the Zambezi River, 2000
Catchment
area (sq km)
76 000
664 000
67 000
152 000
144 000
150 000
1 300 000
Figure 2.1
Sources of Surface Water Resources
Euroconsult Mott MacDonald, Integrated Water Resources Management and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River
Basin. 2008
Table 2.2
Current and Projected Consumptive Use and Mean Annual Runoff

Current
(million cu m)
Available runoff
Rural domestic consumption
Urban domestic consumption
Industrial consumption
Mining
Environmental/flood releases
Irrigated agriculture
Livestock
Hydropower(evaporation)
Total consumptive water use
Unspecified uses and discharge
to the ocean
Current
(% of available
mean annual
runoff)
Projected to
2025
(million cu m)
Projected to
2025
(% of available
mean annual
runoff)
103 224
24
175
25
120
1 202
1 478
113
16 989
20 126
100
0.02
0.17
0.02
0.12
1.16
1.43
0.11
16.46
19.50
103 224
43
676
85
408
6 445
4 635
167
24 598
37 057
100
0.04
0.65
0.08
0.40
6.24
4.49
0.16
23.83
35.90
83 098
80.50
66 167
64.10
SADC/ZRA, Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin, 2008
Rainfall Trends
Map 2.2 presents the mean annual
rainfall distribution across the SADC
region while Map 2.3 gives the mean
annual rainfall distribution over the
Zambezi River Basin. Mean Annual
Rainfall, and generally the resultant
runoff, is higher in the north and east,
and lower to the south and west of the
SADC region. Consequently, rainfall

varies significantly between the eight
countries in the Zambezi River Basin.
The Basin is subject to frequent periods of prolonged drought, particularly
in the southwestern parts, while
the northern and eastern parts are vulnerable to floods, often with devastating impacts.
27
Map 2.2
Mean Annual Rainfall Distribution Across the SADC Region
28
SADC, Regional Water Strategy, 2007
Map 2.3
Mean Annual Rainfall Distribution Across The Zambezi River Basin
29
Evaporation
Rainfall and Evaporation Statistics
Table 2.3
In most parts of southern Africa
Country
Rainfall range Average rainfall
Potential
Total surface
including the Zambezi River
(mm/yr)
(mm/yr)
evaporation
runoff
Basin, potential evaporation is
range (mm/yr) (mm/yr)
twice as high as rainfall totals and
Angola
25-1600
800
1300-2600
104
this plays a dominant role in the
Botswana
250-650
400
2600-3700
0.6
overall water balance, with the
Malawi
700-2800
1000
1800-2000
60
consequence that generally less
Mozambique
350-2000
1100
1100-2000
275
Namibia
10-700
250
2600-3700
1.5
than 15 percent of the rainfall
Tanzania
300-1600
750
1100-2000
78
contributes to runoff, river flow
Zambia
700-1200
800
2000-2500
133
and infiltration to groundwater
Zimbabwe
350-1000
700
2000-2600
34
(Hirji and others 2002).
Hirji, R., Johnson, P., Maro, P. & Matiza-Chiuta, T. (Eds), Defining and Mainstreaming Environmental
Table 2.3 shows the rainfall,
Sustainability in Water Resources Management in Southern Africa, 2002
evaporation and surface runoff
ranges in the Zambezi Basin. All
the determinants of the hydrological
process mentioned have a direct influence
on the occurrence and distribution of
water in the basin.
Natural Lakes
Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is the
largest natural lake in the Zambezi River
Basin and is the second deepest lake in
Africa after Lake Tanganyika which lies
outside the Zambezi Basin. Lake
Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is the third deepest lake in the world. This massive water
body is shared by Malawi, Mozambique
and Tanzania and each country has a
different name for the lake.
There are other smaller natural lakes
such as Lake Chilwa (Malawi) and Lake
Liambezi (Namibia). These natural lakes
are used for various purposes such as
domestic and industrial water supply, hydropower generation, fisheries, recreation and lake transportation.
30
Lake Kariba is the

largest artificial lake
and reservoir in the
world in terms of
water storage capacity.
Artificial Lakes and Dams

Lake Kariba is the largest artificial lake
and reservoir in the world in terms of
water storage capacity, holding 185 cubic
kilometres of water at full supply level.
The other major artificial lake in the Zambezi River Basin is Cahora Bassa with a
holding capacity of 55.8 cubic kilometres.
There are a lot of other small,
medium and large dams in the Zambezi
River Basin which are used for various
purposes such as irrigation, wildlife
water supply, mining, and flood and

drought management. Threats to artificial lakes and dams include invasive alien
weed infestation, poor water quality due
to discharge of untreated effluents from
sewerage treatment plants, mining and
industry wastes, pollution from agriculture, and siltation due to soil deposition
into the artificial lakes and dams.
Map 2.4 shows the dams in the
Zambezi River Basin that are used to
store water for various purposes such as
for hydropower generation (Kariba, Cahora Bassa, Itezhi Tezhi, Kafue,
Tedzani). The map also shows planned
expansion and new facilities. Dams play
a major role in flood and drought management and one of the indicators of
the level of development of a country
or region is the per capita water stored.
These and many smaller dams are also
used for irrigation and domestic water
supplies. A higher per capita of water
stored indicates better development and
access to the water resource. Due to
large surface areas of artificial lakes and
dams, evaporation losses tend to be
high, particularly in the lowlands of the
Zambezi River Basin where temperatures are generally high throughout the
year, with low rainfall.
Map 2.4
Hydropower Facilities in the Zambezi River Basin
31
Water Availability and Security

Table 2.4 shows water availability per
person in the Zambezi River Basin riparian states for the years 1995 and
2000, projected to the year 2025. It can
be seen that by 2025, it is projected
that Tanzania and Zimbabwe will
be water stressed while Malawi will experience water scarcity despite the
volume of water available in the lake,
due to distribution challenges. Data
on availability represent average
annual freshwater resources, as actual
supply will vary from year to year.
Box 2.1 presents the factors of vulnerability and management in water
security.
Table 2.5 and Figure 2.2 show five
water-sector indicators that demonstrate
the level of development of a country
or region and, using these indicators,

provide a comparison between the
Zambezi River Basin, the SADC region,
the world average and the status of industrialized countries. This indicates
that the Zambezi River Basin still needs
to do more to reach the world averages
in respect to water abstractions, irrigated
land and the provision of safe and adequate domestic water supplies. However, the Zambezi River Basin is
generally performing better than the
SADC Region.
Water Demand and Use

The Zambezi River Basins human population continues to grow at an average rate
of about 2.36 percent per annum
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012). Con-
Table 2.4
Country
Water Availability in the Zambezi River Basin

Total annual
renewable fresh
water available
(cu km/yr)
184
14.7
18.7
216
45.5
89
116
20
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1995 population
(000)
11 558
1 459
9 374
15 400
1 590
28 400
9 100
11 526
1995 Per capita

water availability
(cu m)
2000
population
UN medium
projection (000)
15 920
10 075
1 995
14 026
28 616
3 134
12 747
1 735
13 302
1 651
10 160
17 245
1 817
32 422
10 755
13 485
2000 Per
capita water
availability
(cu m)
13 832
8 904
1 840
12 525
25 041
2 745
8 275
1 483
2025
Population
UN medium
projection
(000)
25 940
2 270
18 695
26 730
2 460
56 090
18 285
17 395
2025
Per capita
water
availability
(cu m
7 093
6 476
920
8 080
18 496
1 587
6 345
1 030
WATER STRESS
Availability less than 1700 cu m/capita/year
WATER SCARCITY Availability less than 1000 cu m/capita/year
Namibia values are high due to the Orange and Okavango river allocations but faces distribution challenges
Note that despite improvements in monitoring technology, estimates of water availability are approximations, and the average annual
figures mask large seasonal, inter-annual and long-term variations. Geographical variations are also a factor, for example in Namibia
and Malawi.
Hirji, R., Johnson, P., Maro, P. & Matiza-Chiuta, T. (Eds), Defining and Mainstreaming Environmental Sustainability in Water Resources Management in
Southern Africa, 2002; Tumbare, M.J. The Management of the Zambezi River Basin and Kariba Dam, 2010
32
Table 2.5
Comparison of Zambezi River Basin Water Sector Status with other Benchmarks/Indicators
Sector
Zambezi River Basin status
SADC status
World averages
Industrialized countries
Water abstraction
Surface water storage
Irrigated land
102 cu m/capita/year
140% of ARWR stored
13% irrigated of
available irrigable land
14% of ARWR stored
25% of ARWR stored
1 330 cu m/capita/year
70% to 90% ARWR stored
7% irrigated of
20% irrigated of
70% irrigated of
Water supply
77% of the ZRB

population (2008)
has access to an
adequate and safe
water supply
61% of the
SADC population
has access to an
adequate and
safe water supply
87% of the World

population (2006)
has access to an
adequate and safe
water supply
100% of the
population has access
to an adequate and safe
water supply
Sanitation
60% of the ZRB

population (2008)
has access to an
adequate sanitation
service
39% of the SADC

to an adequate
sanitation service
62% of the World

population (2006)
has access to an
adequate sanitation
service
100% of the
to an adequate
sanitation service
ARWR Annual Renewable Water Resources

Hirji, R., Johnson, P., Maro, P. & Matiza-Chiuta, T. (Eds), Defining and Mainstreaming Environmental Sustainability in Water Resources Management in Southern
Africa, 2002; Tumbare, M.J. The Management of the Zambezi River Basin and Kariba Dam, 2010
Box 2.1
WATER SECURITY
A countrys water security results from a combination of its inherent vulnerability and
the way in which it responds to and manages that vulnerability.
Water vulnerability consists of three factors:
Water Availability
The basic amount of long-term water available to a country from surface and groundwater inflows and rainfall compared to the demand for water is a fundamental determinant of water security.
Water Variability
The extent to which the water is available when and where it is needed also heavily influences the water security of a country. Countries that are neither water scarce nor water
stressed may still be vulnerable because of a mismatch between the location of the water
and the location of the demand. Highly fluctuating seasonal demands or a highly variable
climate can also create vulnerability.
Water Dependence
The structure of a countrys economy and the dependence of its sectoral output on water
will influence its security. More industrially developed countries generally have sectors
that are less dependent on water than less-developed countries. Their productive output
is less dominated by water-dependent sectors, such as agriculture, and there are multiple
sources of energy for the industrial sector apart from hydropower.
Management response consists of two factors:
Water Infrastructure
Water storage helps to buffer against temporal variability; inter-basin transfers can buffer
against spatial variability; levees and embankments protect against flooding; and pans,
dams and boreholes provide access to water during drought in arid and semi-arid zones.
Management Environment
The way in which a countrys water resources are managed in the face of limited endowments and high variability can greatly influence its water security. Investment in forecasting and monitoring capabilities; laws and regulations that provide equitable access to
water; involvement of stakeholders in water management; pricing policies that encourage
water conservation and re-use; pursuit of conjunctive management of surface and
groundwater; and treaties that promote regional water sharing all enhance efficient and
equitable use of a countrys water resources.
World Bank 2004
33
Figure 2.2
Comparison of Zambezi River Basin Water Sector Status

with Other Benchmarks/Indicators
Table 2.5
34
sequently, the need for water will increase

with the requisite increase in infrastructure development. This will become
more complex as countries utilize the
most economically viable sources first and
as these get exhausted, and then the more
expensive sources have to be utilized.
These sources might be from transboundary or inter-basin sources. In short,
the competition for water by users will become fiercer as the water resource becomes scarcer (Tumbare 2010).
Table 2.6 and Figure 2.3 show the

current water use patterns in Zambezi riparian states for three sectors of Agriculture, Domestic and Industry.
Table 2.7 shows the area under irrigation in Zambezi Basin countries
and its share in arable land and permanent crops. For Botswana, although the
area under irrigation increased from
one thousand hectares in 2001 to about
two thousand in 2006, it still remained
the lowest as compared to the area
Table 2.6
Current Water Use Patterns By Sector

for Zambezi Riparian States
Country
Current volume per capita (cu m/capita/year)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Average
Total
Domestic
Industrial
27
83
96
35
139
58
173
203
101
6
29
14
4
46
3
29
19
18
5
18
5
1
5
1
13
9
7
Figure 2.3
Water Use By Economic Sector
Agriculture
16
35
77
30
87
54
131
174
76
Aquastat, FAO Information System on Water and Agriculture, 2008
World Bank, Strategic Role of Water in SADC Economies, 2004
under irrigation in other riparian states.

In 2008, Zimbabwe had the largest area
of land under irrigation although its
percentage share in arable land and
permanent crops (4.5) was lower than
that of Zambia (6.5).
Hydropower generation is one of
the most important in stream uses of
water in the basin and the region as a
whole because most countries rely heavily on hydroelectricity for domestic and
industrial use as well as for pumping
water and other agricultural uses. Although hydropower generation is normally considered non-abstractive, there
are evaporation losses associated with
storage and in some cases, diversion of
water for hydropower generation away
Table 2.7
from other uses such as tourism and the

environment exemplified by the diversion of water on the Zambian side of
the Zambezi River at Victoria Falls for
hydropower generation at the Victoria
Falls North Bank Power Station.
Competing uses of water arise from
the demands of competing users,
whether in the public or private sector,
domestic or commercial use. Some of the
major challenges for water sector stakeholders in the Zambezi River Basin are:
water scarcity as demand exceeds
supply due to natural causes, population growth, increased mining activities, emerging demands for
bio-fuels, growing economies or distribution of the water resources;
Irrigated Land in the Zambezi Basin and Share in Arable Land and Permanent Crops
IRRIGATED LAND
000 Ha
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
35
1999-2001 2003-2005
80
1
51.7
115
7.3
163
133.3
174
80
1
56
118
8
184
156
174
SADC 2012a, SADC Statistical Yearbook 2012
SHARE IN ARABLE LAND AND PERMANENT CROPS

%
2006
2007
2008
80
2
56
118
8
184
156
174
80
2
59
118
8
184
156
174
80
2
59
118
8
184
156
174
1999-2001
2.4
0.4
1.8
2.7
0.9
1.6
6.0
5.2
2003-2005
2006
2007
2.2
0.5
1.8
2.5
1.0
1.7
6.9
5.0
2.2
0.8
1.8
2.4
1.0
1.7
6.3
4.7
2.2
0.8
1.9
2.5
1.0
1.7
6.4
4.7
2008
2.2
0.8
1.6
2.5
1.0
1.7
6.5
4.5
lack of access to adequate safe water

and sanitation facilities due to financial and infrastructure constraints;
water quality deterioration arising
from large volumes of effluent
from urban, mining, industrial and
agro use;
fragmentation of water resources
management policies and practices at
national, river basin or regional levels.
Impact of Climate Change
While climate change and variability research is ongoing, both globally and locally, researchers generally agree that
average temperatures in the Zambezi
River Basin are rising and that the
Table 2.8
northeast of the SADC region will become wetter while the southwest will
become drier. Table 2.8 gives a summary
of the main indicators.
Water Access
The Annual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) in the Zambezi River
Basin are shown per capita by country
in Figure 2.4. A high ARWR figure indicates higher availability of water resource but does not necessarily mean
high accessibility of the water resource.
Access to water resources requires construction of appropriate water storage
and water supply infrastructure. Due to
the poor water storage infrastructure de-
Climate Change Findings for the Zambezi River Basin
36
Thematic Area
Findings
Temperature and Evaporation
Available studies predict that:

1. Temperatures in the Zambezi Basin will increase in the range of +0.30C to
+0.6oC per decade.
2. Summer temperatures will increase by a maximum of +0.8oC per decade.
3. Evaporation is estimated to increase by 10% to 25% by 2050.
Rainfall and Runoff
Available studies predict that:

1. The Zambezi River Basin will become generally drier.
2. Rainfall pattern changes will occur over the entire Zambezi River Basin.
3. Rainfall over the Zambezi River Basin will decrease by 10 - 15% by 2050.
4. There will be drier droughts and wet years will be wetter.
5. There will be a shift in the wet season, which may have already begun.
Dam Management
1. Existing dam operating rules in the Zambezi River Basin consider one-year rule
curves. A shift to a longer operating window, which is desirable, brings major
challenges to Dam Operators because of the expected higher weather variability.
2. The low storage/MAR ratios of all current dams in the Zambezi River Basin, except for Kariba, suggests that these dams cannot store major floods.
3. Due to high weather variability, perceptions with regard to dam operations are
that there will be incremental, unpredictable increases in flow discharges resulting in flooding, with losses of lives and livelihoods.
Forecasting
1. Sustainability of automatic flow gauges in the Zambezi River Basin is a significant challenge at present due to:
Ageing equipment/Lack of spares;
Loss of trained staff/Brain drain;
Thefts/vandalism;
Flood/lightning damage.
2. The existing density of rainfall gauges in the sub-basins is generally below the requirements for accurate forecasting.
SADC 2011b, Climate Change Adaptation in SADC: A Strategy for the Water Sector, 2011
velopment in the Zambezi River Basin,

most of the Zambezi riparian states are
dependent on rainfall.
In the planning horizon of up to
year 2030, the water sector infrastructure development interventions should
target three main water user areas of
agriculture, hydropower generation, and
domestic water supply and sanitation
services in line with the SADC Vision
(SADC 2012b). The agriculture and hydropower generation sub-sectors are the
main catalysts or drivers for food security, poverty eradication and economic
development while an adequate domestic water supply and sanitation service
to the residents of the Zambezi River
Basin not only ensures healthier citizens,
but should be considered as a human
right. Other water sector users such as
mining, aquaculture, navigation, tourism
and the environmental, will also benefit
from the provision of the water infrastructure.
Access to Safe Water and Sanitation
Access to safe water and adequate sanitation is one of the most effective
ways of improving human health

(UNEP 2013). However adequate safe
water and sanitation facilities are not
available to the majority of the Zambezi River Basin riparian states due to
financial constraints, and when made
available, there can be resistance to
use the safe water and sanitation facilities due to unreliability of the services. The financial constraints could be
a direct result of poor national economic performance or poor resource
allocation.
Due to environmental degradation
and deforestation, women in the region now spend more time looking for
fuelwood, water and food, forcing
them to cut back on the number of
cooked meals and their nutritional
value (SADC 2011b). In Mozambique,
women spend 15.3 hours per week
during the dry season and 2.9 hours
per week during the wet season in
drawing and carrying water. In Malawi,
each household spends five percent of
all days and nights collecting water
(SARDC and HBS 2010). Women and
girls in the rural areas of the Basin traditionally fetch water and wood, and
Figure 2.4 Per Capita Annual

Renewable Water Resources
SADC 2012b, Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan -- Water Sector Plan
37
Box 2.2
CASE STUDY ON CHOLERA OUTBREAK
A cholera outbreak in 55 of Zimbabwes 62 districts between August 2008 and May 2009 resulted in some 4,000 fatalities. The following factors were responsible for the cholera outbreak:
Consumption of contaminated underground water from wells;
Drinking water from unprotected sources (river, wells);
Contact with someone with diarrhoea at home; and
Absence of a toilet at home.
The following measures were taken in response to the outbreak:
Rehabilitation of boreholes; and
Distribution of non-food items, including water urns, aquatabs, oral rehydration sachets,
soap and awareness pamphlets on cholera prevention.
The following extra measures were also recommended:
Boiling water before drinking;
Treating water before using; and
Practicing good personal hygiene.
UNEP 2013
38
also look after the sick, thus putting

them at greater risk and vulnerability
if safe and adequate water supplies and
sanitation services are not at their
disposal.
Water quality deterioration reduces
water availability which induces water
stress or scarcity. Available renewable
water resources, once polluted, are no
longer immediately available for use or
become more costly to use. The water
resources in the Zambezi River Basin
are becoming increasingly polluted due
to large effluent discharges from the
urban areas, mining activities and agroindustries as countries become more industrialised.
Water is a key driver for sustainable growth and poverty alleviation in
the Zambezi Basin, and many people
in the rural and peri-urban areas do
not have access to adequate water for
basic human needs and for economic
production. Figure 2.5 shows trends in
water and sanitation coverage in the
Zambezi Basin.
Although safe drinking water and
adequate sanitation is generally improving across the Zambezi River
Basin as shown in Figure 2.5, low levels of access to both safe water and
sanitation are adversely impacting on
the livelihoods, health and productivity
of the most vulnerable members of
society. Poverty is a relative word
with several definitions, but the main
causes of poverty in the Zambezi
River Basin are:
lack of infrastructure including
roads;
inadequate access to land and
capital;
lack of access to modern
technology;
diminishing access to traditional
technology; and
natural disasters (droughts, floods).
In the context of the Zambezi River
Basin, poverty relates to lack of resources for production that can enable
Figure 2.5 Water and Sanitation Coverage

in Zambezi Basin States
Data for Malawi is 2010, Mozambique 2009, Namibia 2007, Zambia 2008 and 2010
National MDG reports; SADC/SARDC and others, Zambezi River Basin Atlas of the
Changing Environment, 2012
or empower the populace to afford a

better standard of living. This lack of
resources includes access to information, health facilities, education and
other services, generally resulting in the
affected population being vulnerable
and dependent (Tumbare 2010). Information related to water resources includes: rainfall patterns for cropping,
seasonal water availability, floods,
droughts, seasonal rainfall variations, climate variability and change.
Poverty is a threat to the sustainable
integrated water resources management
of the Zambezi River Basin because of
the following, among other reasons
(Tumbare 2010):
The persistence of poverty and
deprivation is pervasive and results in high birth rates, crime and
corruption. High birth rates increase demands on food production, employment, and health
services, which are already inadequate, creating a vicious circle;
On average, 70 percent of the
population of the Zambezi River
Basin is rural and poor. The rural
economy of the Basin countries
is principally subsistence agriculture. With limited agricultural inputs, equipment and land, poor
39
agricultural practices are prevalent

resulting in land degradation.
This land degradation accelerates
soil erosion leading to siltation
and pollution of water sources
and water bodies;
The lack of access to alternative
energy sources results in reliance
on firewood and charcoal.
Forests are being destroyed to
meet this demand, leading to a
cycle of deforestation and land
degradation.
Figure 2.6 Distribution of Population in Urban
and Rural Areas in Zambezi Basin States
40
World Bank, Strategic Role of Water in SADC Economies, 2004
Box 2.3
Population Growth and

Water Supply
As the economies of the Zambezi
River riparian states continue to grow,
so will urbanization and industrialization resulting in pressure points for resource availability in urban centres.
There is an increasing urbanization
trend in all the eight Zambezi River riparian states. This will require large
water sector infrastructure investments
to meet the water supply and sanitation needs of the growing urban population since urban area services are
more centralised than those for the
rural areas where the population densities are lower. Figure 2.6 portrays another population dynamic. Malawi has
the highest rural population while
Botswana has the lowest.
The population of the Zambezi
River Basin continues to grow, growing at an average rate of 2.36 percent
per annum. Due to the increase in
population, water resource availability
is declining due to increased demand
resulting in pressures on existing water
supply infrastructure. An increasing
POPULATION OF THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
The population of the Zambezi River Basin grew from 31.7 million in 1998 to 38.4 million
in 2005, before reaching 40 million in 2008. It is projected that by 2025, the population
will reach 51 million.
Although sparsely populated, average population densities in the Basin show a consistent shrinkage in per capita land availability, which is projected to decline to 2.56
hectares/person in 2025 from as much as 4.16 hectares/person in 1998.
Population distribution is uneven in the Basin, with large areas uninhabited and reserved for wildlife. In 1998, the average population density in the Basin was 24 people
per sq km, and this increased to 28.75 people per sq km in 2005 before reaching 30.26
people per sq km in 2008.
There are disparities in population densities between countries in the Basin, with
Malawi being the most densely populated country. In 2008, Malawis population density
was 125.3 people per sq km. Tanzania had an average of 45 people per sq km, Zimbabwe
had 31.9, and Zambia had 16.8. In 1998 Malawi had an average of 105 people per sq km;
Tanzania had 36; Zimbabwe had 28.5; and Zambia had 13.
Chenje (ed). 2000, SARDC and HBS 2010, UN Statistics 2011 in SADC/SARDC and others 2012
Map 2.5
Internal Renewal Water Resources and Inter-Basin Water Schemes
41
Tumbare, M. J., Equitable Sharing of the Water Resources of the Zambezi River Basin, 1999; and
Management of Shared Watercourses in Southern Africa, 2005
population requires increasing food

supply. This requires more food to be
grown on limited available land, utilising a finite water resource. Conflicts in
water resource allocation will inevitably increase.
Production and consumption have
to increase in an environment of increasing population resulting in additional demands and pressure on a finite
water and land resource. With an increasing population on limited land in
some areas, population densities are resulting in over-utilization of natural resources including water. Due to the
continued increase in human population, competition for habitats with
wildlife also increases resulting in conflicts and an unsustainable environment.
Inter-Basin Water Transfers
Due to continued population and economic growth within the SADC Re-
gion and the Zambezi River Basin, the

demand for water will continue to
grow and the need to transfer water
from areas of abundance to shortage
areas will arise necessitating the implementation of the proposed inter-basin
water transfer schemes. Map 2.5 and
Table 2.9 give some details on some
existing and proposed inter-basin
water transfer schemes within the
SADC region and the Zambezi River
Basin respectively.
Some of these schemes provide
investment opportunities for economic growth for the Zambezi River
Basin. Those that have been implemented elsewhere such as the Lesotho
Highlands Water Transfer Scheme
have benefited both contracting
parties, Lesotho and South Africa.
Such schemes bring closer ties and
co-operation between the contracting
parties.
Table 2.9
42
Inter Basin Water Transfers In Southern Africa
River
Country
River/Area
Country
Cunene
Okavango
Angola/Namibia
Angola/Namibia
Cuvelai
Central Namibia
Namibia
Namibia
E
E
Primary
Primary/Irrigation
Primary/Environmental
Zambezi/Chobe
Angola/Zambia/
Namibia/
Zimbabwe/
Botswana
Selibe- Pikwe/
Gaborone
Botswana
Mining/Industrial
Zambezi/Chobe
Angola/Zambia/
Namibia/
Central Namibia
Namibia
Primary/Irrigation
Primary/Environmental
Zambezi
Angola/Zambia/
Namibia/
Zimbabwe/Botswana
Caprivi Strip
Namibia
Irrigation
Zambezi
Angola/Zambia/
Namibia/
Zimbabwe/Botswana
Vaal/Pretoria
South Africa
Irrigation
Zambezi
Zambia/Zimbabwe
Gwayi/Bulawayo
Zimbabwe
Primary/Irrigation
Industrial/Primary
Congo
Democratic
Republic of Congo
Okavango
Namibia
Primary/Industrial
Congo
Democratic
Republic of Congo
Zambezi
Namibia/Botswana/
South Africa/Zimbabwe
Primary/Industrial/
Irrigation/Mining
Tumbare, M. J., Management of Shared Watercourses in Southern Africa, 2005; and

The Management of the Zambezi River Basin and Kariba Dam, 2010
Water Management Challenges

A summary of the key challenges and issues in the water sector of the Zambezi
River Basin is presented in Table 2.10.
Governance Issues
Some governance issues and resultant
challenges are shown in Table 2.11.
These have an impact on the management of the water resources of the
Zambezi River, which consequently affects the wellbeing of the environment.
Groundwater Depletion
Various studies of the weathered and
fractured Precambrian Basement Complex aquifers of southern Africa were
undertaken by the British Geological
Survey (BGS) staff primarily in
Botswana, Malawi and Zimbabwe during 1985 to 1993, including the installation of collector well systems. BGS staff
also studied the impact of drought on
groundwater resources in Malawi, South
Africa and Zimbabwe during 1996-97
(BGS 2015).
SADC-related policy studies of the
regional water resources followed the
publication of the Protocol on Shared
Watercourse Systems in SADC in 1998
Table 2.10
Key Challenges and Issues in the Water Sector in the Zambezi River Basin
CHALLENGE/ISSUE
SUMMARY
Data
Access to reliable data, both in the water resources and water services sectors, inadequate infrastructure and information systems for water resources monitoring, unreliable data on water use and
water loss in municipalities and other different sectors, and inadequate data on access to water
and sanitation.
Capacity
Limited human resource capacity in both the technical and managerial fields to deliver sustainable
water services and to manage water resources effectively.
Water Sector Infrastructure
The infrastructure challenges can be summarised as follows:

There is limited water resources storage infrastructure at local levels, making countries vulnerable
to droughts, floods and to the impacts of climate change;
Water resources and water services infrastructure, including large dams, irrigation canals, pumps,
water and waste water treatment works, and reticulation systems are often poorly maintained, resulting in safety issues and water wastage;
Large numbers of people with inadequate access to water and sanitation infrastructure and related
services impacts negatively on health and livelihoods;
High levels of illegal connections result in water theft, reduced revenue and high rates of water loss.
Financing
Inadequate financial resources is a challenge to infrastructure development and expansion, and for
operations and maintenance. Poor revenue collection for water services remains a major challenge
that impacts on the ability to deliver sustainable services.
Climate Change
Considerable work is required to understand the likely impacts of climate change, at the catchment
level in particular. This requires further research and investment, including improved flood and
drought management, extended hydrological gauging networks, improved hydrological modelling,
improved groundwater modelling, improved data processing, appropriate drought and flood management systems, enhanced disaster/risk management and improved communication and transfer
of information.
Managing Water Quality
There are two critical aspects to managing water quality that need to be addressed:
o protecting the water quality in surface and groundwater resources, and
o ensuring the quality and safety of drinking water.
The former links to issues of pollution control and treatment, including pollution from municipal,
agricultural, industrial and mining waste. The latter requires effective treatment of water to potable
standards, in urban and rural areas.
Sanitation
Sanitation delivery has lagged behind the delivery of water services in the Zambezi River Basin riparian states. There are a number of challenges around ensuring appropriate sanitation, including
issues of sustainable, waterless or low water use sanitation that are appropriate to the local context.
A further challenge that should be addressed by the Basin states is how to manage productive and
safe wastewater, excreta and faecal sludge for nutrient re-use in agriculture and aquaculture and
how this can enhance resilience to climate change. This includes understanding the science, the
business models, the social change required, as well as establishment of safety standards for
reusing wastewater in agriculture.
Adapted from SADC 2011b, Climate Change Adaptation in SADC: A Strategy for the Water Sector, 2011
and the Southern Africa Water Vision

for Action in 2000. Various strategic action plans followed during 2000-2005.
Those related to the production of a
hydro-geological map with reviews of
country specific data (2002) and the regional situation analysis of drought and
its impact upon groundwater supply
management (2005) were the most significant drivers of hydro-geological
studies. Emphasis has also been placed

upon integrated water resources management especially within transboundary settings (BGS 2015).
About 70 percent of the population
of the Zambezi River Basin lives in the
rural areas where groundwater is of critical importance to the livelihoods of this
rural population. This is because
groundwater is a more suitable and ap-
43
Table 2.11
Summary of Governance Issues and Impacts in the Zambezi River Basin
ISSUES
IMPACTS
Policies and Laws in the water sector

of riparian states are not harmonised
with each other and/or with the SADC
Regional water sector protocols
and policies
Different water quality standards

Different assignment of the value of water
Slow realization of regional integration goals
Ineffective basin-wide management of

the water resources of the Basin
Fragmented water infrastructure development

Low optimization of conjunctive operation of water infrastructure
Poor resource mobilization, allocation and utilization
Low level data/information sharing, inadequate synchronization of water
infrastructure operation and management
Duplication of effort and resource wastage
Difficulty in accounting for responsibilities in cases of problems
Water sector users confused as to who to be answerable to
Delays in disaster management/mitigation response
Lack of common understanding of baseline status and priority issues in
basin level water management
Institutional capacity constraints
Weak national water management institutional capacity to perform river

basin management tasks
Limited water resources knowledge base for basin-wide development and
management
Inadequate effective stakeholder participation in water resources planning,
development and management
Communication limitations in some Zambezi River Basin institutions
Inadequate utilization of resource opportunities towards implementation of
cooperative basin initiatives
Lack of trust and confidence
Low confidence in the Basins Precipitation and Flow Forecasting System

Prolonged decision-making and debate on priority and urgent water management issues prioritizing sovereignty over transboundary cooperation
Lack of investments in
water infrastructure
High vulnerability to extreme weather impacts

Low water use efficiencies and poor maintenance of existing infrastructure
Poor project monitoring and evaluation

systems
Lack of knowledge on project impacts and outputs

Lost opportunities to learn from project lessons.
Corruption
Increased project costs

Resources diverted from intended purposes
Sustained or increased poverty levels
44
Adapted from SADC 2011a, Dam Synchronization and Flood Releases in the Zambezi River Basin
propriate water supply source for low

population areas requiring minimal
reticulation. The rural communities rely
on groundwater for their domestic
water supply, stock watering, and horticulture.
Groundwater is important particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the
Zambezi River Basin and augments surface water supplies particularly in
drought seasons. However, across the
Zambezi as a watercourse, very little

groundwater information is readily
available for planning purposes and for
understanding how surface and groundwater interface for sustainable utilization
and conjunctive use. Consequently,
there is insufficient capacity and knowledge to implement effective management of groundwater to result in the
sustainable use of this water resource of
the Zambezi River Basin.
Map 2.6
Groundwater Resources in Southern Africa
45
UN, Water a Shared Responsibility - United Nations World Water Development Report 2, 2006
Box 2.4
ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE
Artificial recharge is the process whereby surface water is transferred underground to be

stored in an aquifer. Underground water storage is an efficient way to store water because
it is not vulnerable to evaporation losses and it is relatively safe from contamination.
Windhoek, the capital city of Namibia, has a water requirement of about 21 million cubic
metres per year. Most of this water comes from 3 dams but some is
sourced from an aquifer and from fully treated recycled water. The
Windhoek water banking scheme involves banking surface water in
the aquifer as security against droughts. This allows for the dams to
be used at greater risk levels, as security lies in sub-surface storage
where evaporation and aquifer losses are negligible. The overall aim
of the scheme is for the aquifer to be able to supply virtually the entire citys current water use when it is full, and then for it to be rapidly
and fully recharged afterwards.
Some of the main reasons for implementing artificial
groundwater recharge are:
Artificial recharge is usually cheaper than conventional
One of Windhoeks
surface water schemes.
injection boreholes
The aquifer offers storage opportunity where surface
storage is not possible.
The augumentation of existing groundwater supplies is necessary.
Groundwater Strategy 2011
Map 2.6 shows groundwater resources in southern Africa. It is difficult

to map groundwater resources due to the
inter-linkages of groundwater aquifers as
well as inadequate data and information
on groundwater to accurately depict a
Zambezi River Basin perspective.
The above scenario, coupled with
the predictions of extreme weather patterns caused by climate change, calls for
efforts to store available water resources.
This can be realised through construction of dams, groundwater recharge
(Box 2.4) and water harvesting.
46
Wetland Degradation
The Zambezi River and its tributaries
have large wetlands, the largest being the
Barotse Floodplains in western Zambia
and the Kafue Flats in central Zambia.
Wetlands provide a wide variety of resources for wildlife, flora and fauna as
well as a number of products and services that benefit community livelihoods.
Wetlands also provide hydrologic advantages to flood control by reducing the

water flow velocity caused by flooding
and in the process, storing some floodwaters within the wetland, thus reducing
the flood peak.
Almost 20 million people, which is
more than 50 percent of the population
in the Zambezi River Basin, are concentrated around wetlands and most communities continue to be dependent on
hand-dug wells for the supply of
potable water. Women and children usually cultivate in wetland ecosystems
since these provide enough moisture
and fertile soils for agriculture. However, like all large artificial and natural
lakes, the wetland surface area results in
high evaporation losses.
Major causes of wetland degradation in the Zambezi River Basin include:
unsustainable wetland resource
utilization such as over-fishing
and water abstraction;
Map 2.7
Wetlands of the Zambezi River Basin
47
siltation of wetlands resulting in

loss of mangroves and alteration
of the ecosystem habitats;
pollution of wetlands from mining, sewerage and other industrial
effluents;
conversion of wetlands to other
land uses such as construction of
houses; and
undervaluation of wetland goods
and services.
In Zambia, charcoal production and
slash-and-burn agriculture have led to
the deterioration of the Lukanga swamp
ecosystem, resulting in soil erosion, the
turbidity of the water and siltation
(ZEMA and others 2012). As a way of
conserving wetlands, local farmers from
the Simlemba Wetlands in Malawi, of
which the majority are women, have developed sustainable strategies that allow
the community to use the surrounding
dambos and vleis without destroying the

productive ecosystems, as manifested in
many different wetland ecosystems
throughout the basin (SARDC 2013).
Map 2.7 shows the wetlands of the
Zambezi River Basin.
Aquatic Invasive Species
Aquatic plants, mostly free-floating
species such as Water Hyacinth (Eichhorniacrassipes), Water Lettuce (Pistiastratiotes),
Red
Water
Fern
(Azollafiliculoides), and Kariba Weed
(Salviniamolesta) are dominant in the
Zambezi River Basin (Turpie and Zyl
2002). Of all the aquatic invasive
weeds found in the Zambezi River
Basin, water hyacinth growth poses the
most challenges throughout the Basin
and is most prolific on Lake Chivero,
the Kafue Flats, Lake Kariba, and the
Lower Shire.
Box 2.5
48
INVASIVE WEEDS ON LAKE KARIBA
The two main species of invasive aquatic plants on Lake Kariba are the water hyacinth (Eichornia
Crassipes) and the Kariba weed (Salvinia Molesta). The proliferation of these invasive plants on Lake
Kariba poses operational problems for hydropower production if the weeds get into the hydropower or domestic water supply intake. Lake navigation and fisheries are also negatively affected.
The Kariba weed was prevalent on Lake Kariba during the period it was filling in the early
1960s. A grasshopper from South America, Paulina, was introduced in 1969 as part of a biological
weed control strategy and also a sardine species commonly known as Kapenta (Liomnothrissa miodon)
from Lake Tanganyika. The grasshopper helped to reduce the Kariba weed growth while the
Kapenta helped to reduce the lakes nutrients. As the lakes ecological balance was gradually
achieved, the weed died out and is now rarely observed on the lake.
The water hyacinth on the other hand, became a real nuisance in 1994 when the lake remained
at levels lower than normal due to the prolonged below-normal water inflows. The Zambezi River
Authority (ZRA) implemented a programme for reducing and controlling the proliferation of the
water hyacinth through an extensive aerial spraying in August 1998, using the phenoxy herbicide
2,4-D at the rate of 6 litres/ha. Water and fish samples were taken before, during and after the
spraying exercise to determine any detrimental effects. None were detected and this spraying exercise is well-documented (ZRA1999). The spraying of the water hyacinth with 2,4-D was very
effective and caused the death and submergence of the treated water hyacinth within one week.
A total of 1,671ha were cleared of the water hyacinth.
This was followed by a biological control programme using weevils (Neochetina spp.) on the
remaining areas invested by water hyacinth which could not be sprayed, such as at domestic water
intake works. This strategy worked well and the water hyacinth growth and proliferation is well
under control. ZRA has produced a Management Tool Box for the control of invasive weeds
on Lake Kariba.
Tumbare 2008a
The weight of the water hyacinth

is mainly water and the plant can double
its mass every four days or so given
warm eutrophic conditions. Thus, the
plant actively pumps water through its
tissues and releases it into the air in the
process
of
evapotranspiration.
Through this process the water loss
from the surface of water bodies with
invasive species is more than triple that
from the same water bodies without
these plants. Box 2.5 discusses the
growth and control of aquatic invasive
weeds on Lake Kariba.
Declining Water Quality

Pollution of surface and groundwater
resources results in the deterioration of
water quality, which causes major negative human health and environmental
impacts, higher costs of water treatment
and loss of immediate access for use.
The increase in pollution discharges is
largely attributed to urbanization, increased industrial and agricultural activities, mining and soil erosion. The
urban centres produce sewage effluent
while industries produce toxic wastes.
The agricultural sector uses fertilisers
and other pesticides which all contribute
Box 2.6
CURRENT STATUS AND IMPACTS OF EUTROPHICATION

LAKE CHIVERO
Lake Chivero is a tropical impoundment created in 1952 primarily to supply water to the capital
city, as well as satisfying downstream irrigation needs. The lake is now hyper-eutrophic. Mean
total phosphorus concentrations for the period March to April 2003 ranged between 1.98 mgl-1
and 2.99 mg l-1 at three sampling sites on the lake, with a mean of 2.24 mg l-1.This is about three
orders of magnitude higher than the 1967 value (0.04 mg l-1), during which the lake was already
hyper-eutrophic, and over 20,000 times the mean value during the recovery period .Chloride
levels ranged between 71.03 mgl-1 and 174.78 mgl-1.
Studies by Magadza showed the existence of thermohaline stratification and declining oxygen
levels, to the extent that the lake suffers from frequent anoxia leading to fish kills. Health studies
showed the presence of microcyst in levels well above the limit set by the World Health Organization (WHO). In the period 1991 to 2001 the incidences of gastroenteritis and liver cancer
have increased, with liver cancer incidences doubling between 1998 and year 2000. A rise in
bloody diarrhoea incidences among five-year-olds in Harare during the rainy season was noted.
This is explained by the mingling of rainwater runoff with breached sewer outflows, rendering
children who play in the puddles susceptible to gastroenteritis infections.
Nuisance invasive aquatic weeds (Eichhornia crassipes and Hydrocotyl) have become pervasive,
with Hydrocotyl increasingly replacing Eichhornia. The cost of treating the Lake Chivero water to
potable standards has escalated and the water authority is no longer able to supply adequate water
for the urban population, with several suburbs going without piped water supply for weeks and
months, although the lake storage is high.
What Can Be Done?
The current management strategy is to seek more funds to construct more wastewater treatment
works. A total of 255 ML capacity expansion is planned, at a cost of approximately US$353 million.
This is indeed a priority, but such funding is unlikely to be available from local resources in the present
economic circumstances. It has been shown earlier that the non-point source of phosphorus and
nitrogen can maintain the lake in a hypereutrophic state given that the sum total of this source of
nutrients exceeds the 1967 levels when the lake was hypereutrophic. Thus the high-technology wastewater treatment strategy now needs to be complemented by other strategies.
One such strategy is the implementation of the Seven Principles recommended by the World
Lake Vision Committee (2003). This requires a major shift in mindset by the management authorities as to the rights and obligations of stakeholders. Examples from other countries have
shown that the involvement of citizens at grassroots level can yield very satisfactory results,
which could not have been achieved by a top-down management style. On the part of the citizens
it requires a sustained educational and awareness programme about how they impact on their
water resources.
The other strategy is use of ecological methods for runoff water quality control. Studies on
the Mukuvisi River, one of the major nutrient contributors to the lake, have shown that the wetlands associated with this river have considerable water quality restoration (self purification) capacity. Prior to 1980, the urban wetlands were left undeveloped as ecological lungs to the city,
but now these wetlands are being increasingly converted for property development. It is recommended here that the State develops a clear policy and implementation strategy for wetlands
conservation.
Within the urban areas of Harare and surrounding urban settlements, there is need for authorities to develop and implement an extensive programme of wetlands management, such as
constructed wetlands. In this respect it should be noted that the UN Environmental Programme
(UNEP) International Environmental Technology Centre (IETC) has case studies of ecological
technologies for sound environmental management of water resources, such as Planning and
Management of Lakes and Reservoirs: An integrated approach to eutrophication.
Extracted from Magadza 2008
49
Images show the spread of invasive weeds on Lake Chivero over 25 Years
August 1986
June 1990
50
September 2000
to the pollution of the surface and

groundwater resources. In the Zambezi River Basin, gold panning is
prevalent resulting in soil erosion and
water resources pollution. Mine
wastes, if not disposed and managed
properly, result in heavy metal water
pollution. The situation is worsened by
the fact that the riparian states of the
Zambezi River do not have harmonised water quality and effluent
standards. Some of the main causes of
deterioration in water quality are summarised in Table 2.12.
June 2011
Water pollution is a threat to the

water resources of the Zambezi River
because it:
negatively affects aquatic life and
ecosystems in general by degrading
the water quality;
worsens eutrophication of lakes
and reservoirs, which then increases the growth of evasive
aquatic weeds causing further negative impact on the utilization of
the water body;
impairs reproduction and fish
growth;
Table 2.12
Causes of Water Quality Deterioration in a Watershed and Associated Problems
Cause
Sources in a Watershed
ASSOCIATED PROBLEMS
Suspended sediments
Runoff, resuspensions from

bottom sediments
Turbidity, colour deterioration
Human and animal organic

waste
Runoff, septic tanks, human

contact and point loadings of
effluents
Health effects eutrophication
Industrial waste disposal and

wash-off of agriculture (rural and
urban), chemicals
Runoff, diffuse and point

loadings of effluents and urban
storm water
Toxic pollution, eutrophication
Atmospheric deposition of
sulphates (SO4) and nitrogen
oxides (NOx)
Coal-fired power stations and

industrial emissions, washout by
rain, diffuse washout in basin and
particulate deposition on land
and water
Acidification, loss of biodiversity
Changes in water balance
Runoff, diffuse and point

loadings of irrigation outflows and
urban and industrial wash-off
Salinization
Modification of natural flow
Release policy and regime
Downstream effects
Algal blooms and macrophyte

weeds
End-products of eutrophication
Water transparency, de-oxygenation

Loss of biodiversity
51
Chidumayo, E.N. in Hirji, R. and others (eds), Defining and Mainstreaming Environmental Sustainability in Water Resources Management in
Southern Africa, 2002
results in acid rain, which comes

from air pollution from industries, leaches soil nutrients while
increasing solubility of other
soil minerals resulting in poor
soil fertility and lower crop
yields;
increases costs of purification of
water supplies for domestic, industrial or agricultural use; and
increases the likelihood of waterborne diseases.
Impact of Industrial Growth on
Water Quality
Water is an input to almost all production activities including agriculture,
manufacturing, energy, transport,
health and sustaining ecosystems. Due
to economic growth in the Zambezi riparian states as well as growing populations and urbanization, the pollution
of water bodies and the environment
is increasing which in turn increases
costs for water purification and thus
production of goods and services.
As the land area under irrigation increases due to population growth,
emerging demand for bio-fuels and decline in soil fertility, for example, more
fertilisers and pesticides are being used
with residues finding their way into underground and surface waters. This results in eutrophication of water bodies
requiring
expensive
remedies
Mining activities, both formal commercial mining as well as the informal
small-scale (artisanal) mining ventures
such as gold panning, are also on the

increase, with toxic wastes finding
their way into the ground and surface
waters (Box 2.7).
This affects the sources of domestic
water supplies as the water purification
costs increase, resulting in higher unit
cost of domestic water to the consumers. The manufacturing sector also
produces effluents which if not treated
at source, pollute both the air and the
water bodies. Inadequately treated
Box 2.7
52
wastes from cities (municipalities) and

other large settlements, also pose a risk
to the water resources integrity.
Another dimension of industrialization relates to population migration
from rural to urban areas. This results in
increased pressures on the water resources and water service infrastructure.
Waterborne diseases emerge from inadequate treatment and unsafe disposal of
effluent from informal settlements that
arise on the periphery of cities, towns
FORMALIZING THE ARTISANAL MINING SECTOR
Artisanal mining is defined by Hentschel and others (2003) as mining by individuals,

groups, families or cooperatives with minimal or no mechanization. Artisanal mining activities can be as simple as panning for gold in a river, or as complex as developing underground workings.
An estimated 13 to 20 million men, women, and children in developing countries are
directly engaged in the artisanal mining sector. A further 80 to 100 million people are affected by artisanal mining activities. In Zimbabwe, these small-scale miners are mostly
involved in the extraction of gold, diamonds, tantalite and chrome.
All forms of artisanal mining are illegal in Zimbabwe. However this has not always
been the case.
In 1991, Parliament gazetted Statutory Instrument 275,
the Mining (Alluvial Gold) (Public Streams) Regulations as a
measure to recognize gold panning and incorporate it in national development policies. This statutory instrument allowed Rural District Councils (RDCs) to apply for special
grants for particular streams from the Secretary in the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development or a Mining Commissioner who would consult with the Department of
Natural Resources.
After acquiring the grant, the RDC would demarcate a
public stream into 50-metre sections for use by approved
local persons, cooperatives and partnerships in consultation
with the Mining Commissioner.
The regulations specified the areas where panning is legally permitted, and prohibited
panners from mining in an environmentally degrading manner, stating that no mining should
be carried out within three metres of the river bank and not deeper than 1.5 metres. However
this Statutory Instrument was later repealed with the effect of making gold panning, which
constitutes 90 percent of artisanal mining activities, an illegal activity.
Due to a lack of regulation and a lack of incentive for the artisanal miners to operate
in an environmentally friendly manner, artisanal activities result in serious environmental
degradation as evidenced by water contamination with heavy metals such as mercury and
cyanide, as well as deforestation, soil erosion, sedimentation of reservoirs and water pollution as mining populations increase without provision of sanitation.
Mukwakwami, N., Formalising Zimbabwes Artisanal Mining Sector, 2013
and industrial areas. At times, crime and

other undesirable practices arise with increases in population density and unemployment. Additional infrastructure
such as schools, health facilities, food
markets, and other service provisions
may also increase.
The mining sector is a large consumer of water and also a source of largescale pollution and environmental
degradation. The major minerals produced in the Zambezi River Basin are
copper, cobalt, platinum, gold, coal, asbestos, nickel and tin. The mining sector
has been a driver to infrastructure development as reliable water supplies, energy,
roads, railways, and other infrastructure
and services are required. If mine wastes
are not treated at source, pollution to both
surface and underground water resources
occurs. Rehabilitation of mined areas is
also required to restore the forests and
make the mined area safe for humans,
livestock and wildlife.
The manufacturing sector is also a
large water consumer. Usually raw materials and chemicals are used in the
manufacture of goods and if the resultant wastes are not properly disposed of,
pollution of surface and ground water
resources occurs. Major manufacturing
activities in the Zambezi River Basin include production of sugar, textiles and
garments, leather products, beer and
soft drinks, dairy products, cement, fertilisers and steel.
Environmental Risks Associated
with Advances in Technology
Technological advances have affected the
environment in a number of ways, positively and negatively. Many technological
processes produce unwanted by-products
and wastes. However, innovative technologies in agriculture are allowing farmers to grow more crops using fewer
resources and less land.
As new technologies are introduced,
other challenges arise, such as the dumping of old technologies on countries in
need. The disposal of obsolete technology products poses environmental risks,
if recycling of such resultant waste is not

done in an environmentally sustainable
manner. There is need for introducing
technologies that improve the efficiency
of production of goods and services
while avoiding or reducing the production
of harmful wastes to the environment.
The use of renewable energy
sources such as wind, solar or tidal
needs a lot of technological advancement and availability so that such renewable energy sources are affordable and
accessible to residents of the Zambezi
River Basin.
Some Traditional Practices Impact
on Water Quality
The majority of the population in the
Zambezi River Basin lives in rural areas,
and relies on traditional and available
methods of agriculture and livestock development. Some practices have
emerged for various reasons that now
impact negatively on the environment
and quality of water resources, and are
no longer sustainable in their traditional
form. Some of these traditional practices are:
Shifting cultivation was initiated
to avoid over-using the land, at a
time when populations were
lower and farmland was plenty.
This involves clearing of forests
for subsistence farming and moving to a new location in the next
season, allowing the soil to rest
but resulting in deforestation and
soil erosion when trees to not
have time to recover. The eroded
soils add silt to water bodies.
Charcoal production for commercial use is a threat in most Zambezi riparian states. Established
initially for domestic use, this did
not have a major impact, but reliance on sales to urban dwellers
as a livelihood as caused serious
deforestation around some cities
and town as forests are cut
down and the firewood converted into charcoal. Charcoal
burns hotter and longer, but
53
54
production on a large scale is an

inefficient use of the resource,
and results in deforestation, soil
erosion and siltation of water
bodies.
Overstocking without adequate
consideration of carrying capacities, results in damage to grazing
lands and negative environmental
impacts such as loss of species
diversity and vegetation cover,
soil erosion and siltation of water
bodies. Yet most rural communities measure their wealth in number of livestock that they own,
particularly cattle and goats.
Fish poisoning is practiced mainly
in pools in rivers and wetlands,
thus destroying fish species, and
also affecting species diversity
when implemented on a regular
or large-scale basis using modern
poisons.
Veldt fires abound in most rural
areas of the Zambezi Basin before the onset of a new rainfall
season. These are started deliberately for various reasons, including to bring out new green grass
quickly for livestock grazing, for
ease of hunting, destroying agricultural pests, and as part of
clearing the agriculture harvest
waste. This not only destroys the
ecosystem balance, but destroys
trees and other vegetation, causes
air pollution and may result in soil
erosion as a result of the land
being left barren.
Changes in State of Water Resources

and Resultant Impacts
The effects of changes in state of the
water resources and the anticipated impacts are summarised in Table 2.13.
The climatic challenges, the vulnerable sectors and the vulnerability context
of each of the Zambezi River riparian
states is presented in Table 2.14
Responses /Actions
Stream Flow and Meteorological
Data Collection
For sustainable water resources management, data on rainfall, evaporation, wind
speeds, stream and river flows as well as
the water quality should be collected,
analysed and the resultant relevant information disseminated to the stakeholders. The importance of data
collection and analysis is vital as future
planning is informed by this data. It
should be remembered that even if a
reading is zero, it is still an important
reading as it tells that there was no rainfall, or the river dries up and it is possible to know for how long and thus plan
for these dry spells.
The collected data and information
should be stored in databases for the
river basin where it is easily accessed,
processed and disseminated. For the
Zambezi River Basin, a database called
the Zambezi Water Information System
(ZAMWIS) has been put in place. Map
2.6 shows the stream flow gauging stations that have data in ZAMWIS and
those still to be entered. A lot of work
still needs to be done to bring the
ZAMWIS database up-to-date and to
include all recording stations in the
basin as well as having a meta-database,
advising the respective national institutions together with their electronic databases, where data and information can
be sourced.
Water Resources Management
Institutions
The national or bi-national institutions
governance structures vary from country
to country in the Zambezi River Basin.
Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) was
established by Zambia and Zimbabwe
in 1987 in Lusaka and operates through
the ZRA Acts of 1987 which provide
the mandate to manage the water resources of the common Zambezi River
between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Table 2.13
Effects of Changes in the State of the Water Resources and the Anticipated Resultant Impacts
EFFECT
IMPACT
Increase in tempera
tures due to climate
change
Evaporation in water bodies is estimated to increase by 10% to 25% by 2050 increasing water losses to the
environment and increasing competition between users and uses.
Warmer temperatures lead to the proliferation of disease vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes and rodents
leading to livestock and human diseases and possible deaths.
Warmer temperatures lead to the proliferation of disease vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes and rodents
requiring costly veterinary and other medical interventions.
Decrease in rainfall due

to climate change
Decreased rainfall patterns result in lower food and livestock production causing malnutrition and poor
health for humans and loss of grazing and forests for livestock.
Decreased rainfall patterns result in reduced infiltration rates causing poor groundwater yields that sup
port the majority of the rural population.
Dams do not fill up due to reduced runoff resulting in water shortages for energy, agriculture and industry.
Seasonal shifts in rainfall

due to climate change
Requires introduction of new seed varieties.

Low confidence in scientific and Indigenous Knowledge Systems as weather patterns change.
Increase in extreme
weather events (floods,
droughts and cyclonic
events) due to climate
change
Frequent flooding increases incidences of waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid and bilharzia.
Frequent flooding increases incidences of crop losses, population displacements and infrastructure damage.
Severe droughts lead to conflicts over scarcer natural resources such as water, forests and pastures.
Severe droughts also reduce/diminish capacity of rivers to dilute pollution.
Inaccessible and inade

quate safe drinking
water and sanitation fa
cilities
Loss of time and energy spent by women and girls in collecting water from distant sources.
Reliance on unsafe water sources resulting in diseases such as bilharzia, cholera, typhoid, dysentery and
intestinal worms.
Poor hygiene and human waste disposal leading to diseases such as diarrhoea, cholera, typhoid, dysentery
and intestinal worms.
Resultant diseases cause:
Loss of productive time for workers and school children due to illness;
Loss of productive time attending to the sick;
Premature deaths;
Increased number of orphaned children;
Poor educational and academic progress supporting the persistence of poverty;
Increased fiscal burden due to medical care requirements.
Lack of surface water

storage infrastructure
With predicted reduced rainfall, increased rainfall variability and reduced runoff, there will be:
Higher frequency of water shortages impacting negatively on food production and food security;
Reduced assurance of supply to all water users;
Higher frequency of water shortages impacting negatively on energy production;
Higher frequency of water shortages impacting negatively on sustained industrial production and growth
accentuating the prevalence of poverty;
Poor groundwater recharge resulting in early drying up of wells and boreholes;
Poor response to and mitigation of drought and flood events due to lack of adequate surface water stor
age infrastructure;
Impacts of droughts will be more severe as there is no fallback position (alternative source of water);
Increased urbanization
and industrialization
Stress induced criminal activity.

Increased pressure on already overstretched water supply and sanitation services.
Pollution of water bodies and the environment will increase resulting in increased costs of water purifica
tion and thus increased costs of production of goods and services.
Limited human resource

capacity in both the
technical and manage
rial fields
Inability to deliver sustainable water resources services.

Inability to deliver adequate sanitation services.
Poor management of water resources and water resource infrastructure resulting in safety issues and
water wastage.
UNEP 2013; SADC/SARDC and others 2012; UNEP 2009; Tumbare, M.N. 2008b, 2010 and 2013
55
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Tanzania
Namibia
Mozambique
Malawi
Botswana
Summary of Climatic Challenges, Vulnerable Sectors and Vulnerability Context by Country
Angola
Table 2.14
Increase in temperature
Increased incidence of drought
Decrease in rainfall
Climatic Challenges

Cyclones
Localised floods
Overflowing of large rivers
Lakeshore flooding
Decline in lake levels
Decrease/Varying river flows
Wildfires
Sea level rise
Saltwater intrusion
56
Coral reef bleaching

Landslides in mountainous areas
Water scarcity
Vulnerable Sectors
Biodiversity loss
Health/disease outbreaks
Coastal ecosystems, cities
Infrastructure
Fisheries
Agricultural and food security
Livestock
Vulnerability Context
Urbanization
Poor infrastructure
Gender inequality
Dependence on climate-sensitive resources
Poor water access by population
Poor health status
HIV and AIDS
Adapted from Global Environment Change and Human Security 2008. Based on assessment of available information, which varies in quality
between countries. There may also be large geographical variables within countries.
SARDC and HBS, Responding to Climate Change Impacts: Adaptation and mitigation strategies as practised in the Zambezi River Basin, 2010
National Institute for Water Resources (INARH), the national water

resources authority in Angola, was established by Presidential Decree 253/10
and is mandated to manage all the water
resources of the country which include
the Zambezi River Basin in Angola.
Administrao Regional de guas
do Zambeze (ARA Zambeze) was established in 2002 in Tte, Mozambique
to manage the water resources of the
Zambezi River in Mozambique.
Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) is a Zambian national
electricity utility located in Luanshya and
mandated to manage the water resources of the Kafue River, a major tributary of the Zambezi River.
Zimbabwe National Water Authority
(ZINWA), the national water authority
Map 2.8
in Zimbabwe established by an Act of

Parliament, is mandated to manage all
the water resources of Zimbabwe including the major tributaries of the
Zambezi.
Hydrolectrica de Cahora Bassa
(HCB) is mandated to manage the hydrology of, and operate the Cahora
Bassa Dam, for hydropower generation
in Mozambique;
Electricity Supply Commission of
Malawi (ESCOM) is a Commission established by the Malawian Government
and mandated to manage the water resources of Lake Malawi and the Shire
River, a major tributary of the Zambezi
River, for hydropower generation.
Government Departments. Each of
the eight Zambezi riparian states has a
national government department with
Stream Flow Measuring Stations
57
various responsibilities to manage the

water resources nationally and internationally, including the water resources of
the Zambezi River Basin. Some of these
institutions still use inherited colonial
legal instruments and water laws so
many years after independence.
Water Resources Management
Instruments
The Zambezi riparian states are guided
by the following documents and study
outputs at Zambezi River Basin level.
ZAMCOM Agreement (2004)
58
In response to the challenges of water resources management, the Zambezi riparian states signed the Zambezi
Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
Agreement to facilitate the efficient basinwide development and management, equitable and reasonable utilization of the
water resources of the Zambezi River
Basin. The ZAMCOM Agreement came
into force in September 2011, when six
of the eight riparian states ratified the
agreement. The ZAMCOM Secretariat is
hosted by Zimbabwe in Harare.
Zambezi River Basin IWRM Strategy
and Implementation Plan
The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Strategy provides a set of

medium-to-long-term measures to address the main issues and challenges in the
development and management of the
water resources of the Zambezi Basin for
socio-economic development of the
Basin and the region as a whole. The
strategy is a vital tool for cooperative and
sustainable management of the water resources of this important Basin. One of
the remaining challenges is to continue
strengthening coordination of this strategy with other ongoing programmes in
the Basin (SADC 2008).
World Bank Zambezi Multi-sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Study (2010)
The overall objective of the Zambezi

River Multi-Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) is to illustrate
the benefits of cooperation among the

riparian countries in the ZRB through a
multi-sectoral economic evaluation of
water resources development, management options and scenariosfrom both
national and basin-wide perspectives.
Dam Synchronization and Flood Releases in the Zambezi River Basin Study
(SADC 2011a) and the WMO Final Report on the Zambezi Basin (2009) are
other outputs that guide the Zambezi

Basin States in water management.
Policy Options
Policies and Strategies at Regional
Level
At SADC regional level, the Zambezi riparian states are guided by the following
documents which contain policies, principles and strategies that are fundamental to managing water infrastructure and
the water resources of the Zambezi
River Basin. The main policies are explained here.
Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses
The SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses was initially passed in 1995

and revised 2000 before entering into
force in 2003. The main objective of
the Revised Protocol on Shared
Watercourses is to foster close and coordinated cooperation in the management, protection and utilization of
shared watercourses and to
advance SADC agenda of regional integration and poverty reduction
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012).The
Protocol calls for the establishment of
the shared watercourse agreements
and Shared Watercourse Institutions
(SWI) to facilitate and coordinate
the joint management of shared
watercourses. It is the first sectorspecific legal instrument to be developed by SADC and creates an overarching framework for the management
of the 15 shared river basins in the
Box 2.8
1
2
3
4
INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (IWRM) IS

BASED ON THE RIO/DUBLIN PRINCIPLES
Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and
the environment.
Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach,
involving users, planners and policy-makers at all levels.
Women play a central role in the provision, management and safeguarding of water.
Water has an economic value for all its competing uses and should be recognised as an
economic good.
The Dublin Principles are relevant to southern African in the following context:
The prevailing semi-arid climate and the seasonal and temporal variability of rainfall
make freshwater a finite and vulnerable resource in southern Africa;
The need to involve communities and other stakeholders in decision-making in order
to promote the sense of ownership of a common resource that must be managed responsibly;
The fact that in both rural and urban areas, women are still responsible for household chores associated with water, and should be given a voice in the management
decisions; and
The need to recognise that water is an important input in most economic activities
and comes with a cost, and is essential to human dignity. Thus, it is an economic
good, but also and mainly, a social good, which should be accessible people.
SADC, SARDC and others, 2008
SADC region. Since the Protocol came

into force, SWI have been established
on all shared watercourses in the region. To date one such major achievement of the Protocol in the basin is
perhaps the signing of the ZAMCOM
Agreement by seven riparian states
with six of them having already ratified the agreement. Other achievements include the agreement on
managing Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa
and the sub-basin of the Shire River,
shared by Malawi, Mozambique and
the United Republic of Tanzania and
also the accord which was put in place
to set up a joint commission between
Malawi and Mozambique on water resources of common interest(SADC
and SARDC 2008).
RISDP and SADC Regional Water Policy
The Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP), which was

launched in March 2004 and updated at
an Extraordinary SADC Summit on Industrialization in 2015, is a blueprint for
the socio-economic development of
southern Africa through the Southern
African Development Community
(SADC). Water is recognised in the
RISDP as having a key role in the development of the region, with special attention given to development that is
integrated and ensures that all other sectors benefit from the contribution of
the water sector. As a result of this important recognition of water, SADC in
2005 moved a step further to develop a
regional water policy for the region.
59
The SADC Regional Water Policy

provides a framework for sustainable,
integrated and coordinated development, utilization, protection and control
of national and transboundary water resources in the SADC region. This policy
is intended to support the SADC Common Agenda of socio-economic development and regional integration, and
improvement of the quality of life of all
people who live in the region. This policy is being implemented through a regional strategy adopted in 2006,
premised on the SADC Treaty, the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses, the SADC Vision for Water,
Box 2.9
60
Life and the Environment in the 21st

Century, and the Dublin Principles. It
was developed to facilitate the implementation of the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses, and to
ensure a focused, coordinated management of regional water resources
(SADC and SARDC 2008).
The policy recognises Integrated
Water Resources Management (IWRM)
as the basic approach to achieving
these objectives. Appropriate tools for
implementing IWRM are proposed, including:
establishment of institutions at national and regional levels;
PRINCIPLES OF THE REVISED SADC PROTOCOL ON SHARED

WATERCOURSES
The main points of the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses are:
Ensuring that utilization of shared watercourses is open to each riparian state without prejudice to its sovereign rights;
Observing the objectives of regional integration;
Ensuring that all interventions are consistent with sustainable development;
Respecting the existing rules of customary and general international law;
Recognising the unity and coherence of each shared watercourse system;
Maintaining a balance between water resources development and conservation;
Pursuing close cooperation in the study and execution of all projects on shared watercourses,
exchange of information and data;
Utilising a shared watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner;
Maximising the benefits from a shared watercourse through optimal and sustainable development;
Participating and cooperating in the use, development and protection of a shared watercourse;
Taking all appropriate and reasonable measures when utilising a shared watercourse to prevent significant harm to other states;
Eliminating or mitigating such harm and where appropriate, discussing and negotiating the
possibility of compensation; and
No state shall deny anyone the right to claim compensation or other relief in respect of significant harm caused by activity carried out in a shared watercourse.
SADC 2000
capacity building;
stakeholder participation;
water resources information management;
implementation of IWRM plans;
conflict resolution; and
environmental management.
Climate Change Adaptation in SADC -A Strategy for the Water Sector
The Climate Change Adaptation Strategy was crafted in 2011 to improve climate resilience in southern Africa
through integrated and adapted water
resources management at regional, river
basin and local levels. In presenting the
various dimensions of adaptation, the
strategy promotes the adoption of a
comprehensive and multi-dimensional
approach, aligning with IWRM. The
strategy presents measures to be taken
over the next 20 years and recommends
that work should start immediately as
this would benefit the sectors under
present climatic conditions. The strategy
calls for the implementation at different
levels, at different stages of the adaptation process and in different areas of interventions (SADC 2011b).
The strategy notes that climate
change adaption in the water sector is
multi-faceted thereby making this a
transboundary process with adjustment
of societies and economies at different
levels, from the grassroots up to the
river basin and regional levels. The
framework emphasises that adaptation
is not only a matter of water management, but an issue of governance as well
as infrastructure development. While it
involves disaster preparedness, the strategy should also provide recommendations on ways to respond to and recover
from climate-related extreme events
such as floods and drought.
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012)
SADC Regional Awareness and Communication Strategy for the Water Sector
SADC developed a Regional Awareness

and Communication Strategy for the
Water Sector that fulfils the call for es-
tablishing sector specific strategies ad

well as crafting, packaging and disseminating messages and themes that
should be based on but not limited to
SADCs priority intervention areas. The
goal of the strategy is to improve
awareness and understanding on water
issues and initiatives in the SADC region, contributing to poverty eradication and regional integration. The
strategy is a broad framework of what
needs to be communicated and possible
target audiences, as well as communication tools.
This communication strategy for
the Water Sector has three main target
users: the SADC Water Division, the
SADC Member States, and the regional
organizations working in the Water
Sector such as River Basin Organizations (RBOs), Basin Water User Communities (BWUCs) and other non-state
actors (SADC 2010a). The importance
of these institutions is recognized in
implementing regional instruments and
initiatives, and also the need for capacity-building to enable them to effectively carry out their functions. The
strategy recognizes the key role of
women as the custodians of water and
water management, and specifies
that this role must be recognized
through effective participation in decision-making and implementation
(SADC 2010a).
Regional Strategic Action Plan
The Regional Strategic Action Plan on

Integrated Water Resources Development and Management (RSAP) seeks to
ensure that this sector contributes adequately to poverty eradication, regional
integration and socio-economic development in a sustainable manner. The
RSAP III which runs from 2011-2015
has 15 programmes, including Infrastructure and Project Preparation, Water
Supply and Sanitation, Communication
and Awareness, Research and Education, Groundwater Management, and
Environmental Water Management
(SADC /SARDC and others 2012).
61
The formation of the Zambezi

Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) falls within the programme on
River Basin Organizations (RBOs)
which seeks to strengthen the organizational and institutional mechanisms
for river basin management. The priority intervention areas include: Development and strengthening of RBOs,
Development of RBO guidelines, Networking and sharing of best practices,
Establishment of Basin-wide stakeholder forums to address issues of
transboundary water management, and
Training of RBO representatives
(SADC 2011c).
Table 2.15
An assessment of the previous

RSAP II noted that while the plan was
comprehensive and highly relevant to
the needs of IWRM and development
in SADC, greater emphasis should be
placed on emerging issues such as climate change adaptation, ecosystem approach and the human-rights-based
approach to water (SADC/SARDC and
others 2012).
Legal Instruments at
National Level
The main legal instruments used nationally by each of the Zambezi riparian states are presented in Table 2.15.
Main Water Sector Legal Instruments
Country
Main Water Sector Legal Instruments
Angola
Environment Act (1998)

Water Act (2002)
Land Act (2004)
Botswana
Boreholes Act (1956)

Water Act (1968)
Water Utilities Corporation Act (1970)
Public Health Act (1981)
Draft Water Bill (2005) to repeal the 1956 Boreholes Act and the 1968 Water Act
Malawi
Water Resources Act (1969)

Water Works Act (1995)
Irrigation Act (2001)
Mozambique
Water Act (1919)

Water Act (1991) repealing the 1919 Water Act
Namibia
Water Act (1956)

Water Resources Management Act (2013)
Tanzania
Water Utilization Act (1974)

Water Resources Management Act (2009)
Water Supply and Sanitation Act (2009)
Zambia
Water Act (1948)

Bureau of Standards Act (1982)
Zambezi River Authority Act (1987)
Environment Protection and Pollution Control Act (1990)
Local Government Act (1991)
Public Health Act (1995)
Water Supply and Sanitation Act (1997)
Draft Water Bill (2006) to repeal the 1948 Water Act
Zimbabwe
Zambezi River Authority Act (1987)

Water Act (1998)
ZINWA Act (1998)
Environmental Management Agency Act (2003)
62
63

Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS)
are an essential factor in the management of water resources, especially in
rural areas, and need to be better understood and integrated, rather than
being lost. Box 2.10 gives an insight
into IKS and the management of
water resources.
Summary of Response Areas and
Interventions
A summary of the main response areas
and the proposed interventions and actions to be taken in the Zambezi River
Basin are presented in Table 2.16.
Conclusion
As discussed in the chapter, effective
management of water resources remains a challenge across the Zambezi
River Basin. The transboundary nature
of water, though with greater benefits,
requires a multi-faceted and integrated
approach to enable efficient management and use of water. It is therefore
essential that all stakeholders are involved in the management of water resources, which also promotes
basin-wide integration and co-operation. There is an adequate policy
framework at regional level, although
strategies need to be engendered, and
regional policies need to be incorporated and domesticated at national
level for harmonisation of water resources management. Indigenous
knowledge systems should be incorporated, used and acknowledged. Gender
mainstreaming and involved of
women in leadership and decisionmaking needs to be strengthened in
the basin as water reform institutions,
policies and processes take cognisance
of a host of fundamental sectors of
society except the strategic role of
women in this sector. The SADC Regional Water Policy of 2005 notes that
the pivotal role of women as providers
and users of water and guardians of
the living environment has seldom
been reflected in institutional arrangements for the development and management of water resources.
Box 2.10
64
INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS AND WATER
Water custodianship is a millennia-old facet of African peoples in the Zambezi River

Basin. The interface between water resources and indigenous knowledge is intricate.
Water is a culturally integrative resource among the indigenous communities. It is a common pool resource and everyones right. No one can be denied it traditionally.
When there is a threat to the water resource, it is managed communally as in flood
management by the Lozi in Zambia. There, an intricate system of canals, developed over
two centuries, is managed under the traditional authority of the Litunga. Flood management unifies people of the sub-basin within the rhythms of the flood levels of the Zambezi. The same is true of flood management in the Lower Zambezi in Mozambique
(Beilfuss and others, 2002).
The Zambezi has sustained civilizations for long. As part of oral history, the story is
told of the Kariba gorge as the most sacred site in the region (Mutwa, 1964). The famous
Nyaminyami, the guardian spirit of the Zambezi, is told as taking revenge for the translocation of the Gwembe Tonga people from their ancestral home to construct the Kariba
dam (Chenje and Johnson 1996). The notion of river guardianship is told in most of the
tributaries of the Zambezi.
As a transboundary resource, the Zambezi divides the Lozi between Namibia and
Zambia resulting in complicated traditional fishery management arrangements under two
national river management systems (Abbot and others 2007).
Other traditional water resource management systems include:
Water as an enduring common-pool resource issue (Mujwahuzi 2002). In most
places, wells are communally managed with privatization discouraged in the interest
of public safety (Derman 2003).
Intensive crop cultivation, fisheries, livestock grazing, and extraction of materials
such as reeds are all part of traditional systems in the basin. There are many large
scale wetlands, such as the Barotse, Kafue, Luangwa, Lukanga, all in Zambia, Chobe
in Namibia and Elephant Marsh in Malawi (SADC/SARDC and others 2012).
Also traditionally managed is a special kind of wetland, the dambos, providing local
spaces and niches for growing traditional food crops.
Historically, rainmaking ceremonies have been common in the Zambezi Basin. Rainmaking rituals reflect intricate community social institutions that underlie equity principles and group responsibility. Everyone must contribute to the ceremony because
when the rains come, they nourish everyones fields (Matowanyika 1991).
Water sources such as springs are special sacred sites protected by local rules.
Traditionally, the collection of domestic water is by women. Wells have been important social assembly points for women from time immemorial.
Riverine woodlands regulate local water availability and are designated sacred sites
(Matowanyika 1991). As well, specific tree species are linked to reliable water sources.
Among the Budja people in Mutoko, Zimbabwe, visitors are welcomed with a cup of
water. Acceptance means the visit is amiable. Otherwise it has a hostile intent.
The greeting Pula is used in Botswana, meaning rain, and this is also the name of the
currency. When a leader arrives, the Setswana greeting is A pula e ne Let it rain
may blessing come. (Matiza Chiuta and others 2002)
There are local rules prohibiting washing cooking pots in running water. People must
also kneel to fetch water in deference to the spirits.
Table 2.16
RESPONSE AREA
Response Areas and Interventions

INTERVENTIONS
Governance
Basin-wide flow forecasting, resource modelling and exchange of information between stakeholders will
result in improved management of the water resources.
Deliberate involvement of women groups and representatives in consultations and leadership roles for
decision-making will improve social and economic returns of management interventions.
Establishment of an effective ZAMCOM will support the implementation of IWRM and best practices of
water resources management in the Zambezi River Basin.
Harmonisation of National Water Sector Policies and Legislation with the SADC Water Sector Protocols,
Policies and Strategies and among those of the Zambezi riparian states.
Extending the role of the Climate Services Centre to coordinate short, medium and long-range seasonal
precipitation forecasting in the SADC Region.
Data and
Information
In order to ensure that data is effectively received, stored and shared, a centralized form of data sharing
and management system should be adopted by the Zambezi riparian states. Attempts have been and are
being made through ZACBASE and ZAMWIS.
The ZAMWIS system should be improved and integrated with recent information and metadata on sources
of national data. There should be a mechanism to regularly update the database with geographic data,
and reports, as well as maps. ZAMWIS should be hosted and managed by the ZAMCOM Secretariat.
Dam
Management
Floods and Droughts

The low storage to mean annual runoff ratios of most current dams in the Zambezi River Basin, except for
Kariba, suggests that such dams cannot store major floods. This requires additional water storage
infrastructure to be built for drought and flood mitigation and climate proofing/resilience.
Implementation of a basin-wide flood and drought (emergency and) risk management framework.
Establishing communication Protocols for flood and drought management (early warning).
Formulate, formalise and implement policies and practices that focus on "living with floods".
Building zones/buildings and other multi-purpose flood protection infrastructure where people can find
refuge/protection in times of disasters and which also serve other purposes in times when there are no
disasters.
Climate Change
Promote research that leads to better understanding of the impacts of climate change and the possible
adaptation and resilience mechanisms that can successfully be implemented in the Zambezi River Basin.
Evaporation is estimated to increase by 10% to 25% by 2050 resulting in loss of water for energy and food
production. Improved and efficient energy and food production systems, that use less water resources,
should be put in place.
The Zambezi River Basin will become drier. Rainfall over the whole Zambezi River Basin will overally
decrease by 10% to 15% by 2050. This calls for additional water-storage facilities and the cropping of
drought-resistant crops.
A shift in the wet season is expected. The Zambezi River Basin communities need to be informed about
this phenomenon and a new cropping calendar produced with new mapping of arable agricultural areas
relative to rainfall.
Research and implementation of groundwater recharge opportunities as alternative water storage
facilities in arid and semi-arid zones of the basin.
Synchronization of Dam Operations
New dams in the Zambezi River Basin will contribute to more effective dam synchronization and improved
flood management for the whole system.
Large flows can be released for ecosystems maintenance if the Zambezi River Basin dams are operated
conjunctively.
Dam operations should be synchronised to optimise livelihood activities.
Precipitation and
Flow Forecasting
A comprehensive flow and precipitation monitoring network is required to provide real-time data for a
Zambezi Basin-wide flow forecasting system.
Establish a basin-wide Precipitation and Flow Forecasting Centre located at the ZAMCOM Secretariat and
linked to the energy production strategies of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP).
Investments
Prioritise construction of small and medium-sized dams, each designed to optimise site conditions, as
they have less impact on the environment and are most suited for livelihood enhancement.
Small and medium-sized dam development, primarily for irrigation, water supply and/or hydropower
generation, should also be constructed for flood control with local attenuation impacts while creating
alternatives for livelihoods.
Mobilise private sector for joint investment in infrastructure development and maintenance as well as
reduction of water losses in municipal supply systems.
65
CHAPTER LINKAGES
66
OVERVIEW
The demand for water will certainly continue to rise in the basin as a result of increasing populations and the growing
industries. Therefore, common policies and closely aligned strategies are essential, and all stakeholders must be involved
in the management of water resources. Women must play a leading role as decision-makers and implementers, and indigenous knowledge must be incorporated, according to the principles of integrated water resources management, that
ensure sustainable management, with consideration also for needs of the environment.
LAND AND AGRICULTURE
Agriculture is mostly associated with soils, seed and water availability. In the Zambezi Basin, the level of agricultural production depends mainly on the rain for rain-fed agriculture and the water available through storage for irrigation. Irrigated
agriculture accounts for the largest portion of the water withdrawals in almost all the riparian states. Therefore, water
demand and supply is a critical factor in this sector.
BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS
Water supports all life forms in the Zambezi River Basin including people, animals, birds, fish, amphibians and reptiles,
as well as plants and other vegetation, and trees. Indigenous trees, plants and animals are well suited to their environment
and should be encouraged to grow in the Basin. Water resources are vitally important in sustaining both individual species
and ecosystems.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY
One of the threats to water availability in the Zambezi Basin is climate change and variability. The Zambezi Basin countries
have in the previous years suffered from frequent droughts resulting in drying up of water and wetland ecosystems, or
from floods that cause damage to people and property. Adaptation to the changing climate is an essential factor in water
resources management in the ZRB.
ENERGY
Hydropower generation provides cheaper and more environmentally friendly sources of electrical energy to the basin,
despite having some negative impacts on the environment, and is considered a valuable form of renewable energy. The
reservoirs also store water that is available for agriculture and other uses. However, water flows are essential to power
generation and thus require regular and current information on this aspect of water resources management.
URBANIZATION AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
One of the factors governing the location of settlements and urban areas in the Zambezi River Basin is water availability,
thus urban areas and other human settlements in the Basin are mainly located close to reliable water sources. The provision
of clean water and sanitation is key to urban planning and human life in the city, due to the many additional pressures
placed on water resources, such as domestic and industrial pollution, among others.
TOURISM
As tourism partly depends on water and wetland resources, poor management of water resources will have a negative
impact on the tourism industry. Apart from tourists required safe water and sanitation when they visit the area, almost
all of the tourist attractions in the Zambezi River Basin are water-based or rely on water resources, including the Victoria
Falls, river tours and animals viewing, as well as other activities on the river.
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
The high level of water pollution in the Zambezi River Basin is directly linked to industrial development within and
outside the Basin. Water quality is under threat due to pollution coming from agriculture, mining and manufacturing industries, and yet these are essential to economic development of the Basin. Environmental and water management must
have greater awareness and enforceable regulations.
SCENARIOS
Current projections of water availability in the basin indicate a high likelihood of water stress in some riparian states.
This situation calls for integrated planning and management of the demand, use and replenishment of water resources,
and involvement of all stakeholders including marginalized groups. Efforts should be geared towards economic development that reduces poverty in the Basin in an environmentally sustainable manner, and incorporates modern technologies with indigenous knowledge systems.
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68

Introduction
Land, as an essential resource supporting agriculture in the basin, is recognised
as a major intervening factor in advancing food security and economic growth.
Agriculture is a major activity in the
Zambezi Basin, directly or indirectly
supporting livelihoods for all of the
population, and contributes significantly
to the economies of basin states.
The importance of land and agriculture development to poverty reduction,
economic growth, food security and gender equity in the Zambezi Basin therefore,
remains central. The economic significance of agriculture is further underlined
by contribution to the macro-economy at
national level and for most of the Zambezi River Basin States, the contribution
has been substantial over the years. Despite declining harvests in recent yearsdue
to droughts or floods, the sector remains
the engine of growth. It is the single
most important sector in the Zambezi
River Basin from the perspective of survival of people and animals, and arguably
the sector with the largest potential to
help people out of poverty.
Despite the significant contribution
of the land and agriculture sector to the
economic development of the riparian
countries and to livelihoods of its predominantly rural population, the sector
faces a number of challenges. The challenges include declining productivity
due to declining soil fertility and low use
of improved technologies and inputs,
land degradation as a result of poor
land-use practices, deforestation,
overdependence on rain-fed agriculture
which is vulnerable to negative impacts
of climate change, a growing population
that increases demand on the limited
land-based resources, insecure land

tenure, and gender inequalities in access
to productive assets such as land.
The chapter discusses these issues in
detail and gives an overview of the state
of land and agriculture in the Zambezi
Basin. Policy options for promoting
agriculture, food security, and sustainable land management are discussed.
Land Area and Availability

The total land area of the basin is almost 1.4 million sq km (1,388,200) representing 24.5 percent of the total land
area of the eight riparian states, which
together cover about 5,659,054 sq km.
The Zambezi Basin constitutes significant portions of the land area of
Malawi (93.4 percent), Zambia (76.8
percent) and Zimbabwe (55.2 percent).
The countries that have the largest
portion of the Basin within their boundaries are Zambia (41.6 percent), Angola
(18.5 percent) and Zimbabwe (15.5) percent, as shown in Table 3.1 below.
Table 3.1
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
69
Land Area Distribution in the Zambezi Basin

Total area
of country
Area of country
in basin (sq km)
As % of
total area
of the
country
1 246 700
581 730
118 484
799 390
824 290
945 087
752 614
390 759
5 659 054
256 500
19 100
110 700
163 800
17 100
27 300
577 900
215 800
1 388 200
20.5
3.3
93.4
20.5
2.1
2.9
76.8
55.2
24.5
As % of
total area
of basin
(sq km)
18.5
1.4
8.0
11.8
1.2
2.0
41.6
15.5
100.0
The population of the Zambezi

River Basin was 31.7 million in 1998
(Chenje 2000), about one-third of the
total population of some 95 million in
the eight riparian states (SADC 2014).
Ten years later, in 2008, the basin
population had reached 40 million of
the total 118 million people living in
the eight countries. The total population of the eight countries is expected
to reach 168 million by 2025,
with some 51 million living in the
Zambezi Basin (SADC/SARDC and
others 2012).
The average population density in
the Basin was 24 people per sq km in
1998, and this increased to 28.75 people
per sq km in 2005 before reaching 30.26
people per sq km in 2008
(SADC/SARDC and others 2012 ).
Malawi has the highest national population density, that is the most people
per sq km of land area, at 152.6 in 2011,
followed by Tanzania at 50.2, and
Namibia has the lowest at 2.5 people per
sq km in 2011.
70
Access to Land
Land issues vary from country to country due to socio-economic, political,
historical, cultural, and geographical differences. However, the key land issues
facing the countries in the Zambezi
Basin are primarily those of land
Table 3.2
tenure and use, distribution, utilization

and administration.
In most Basin countries, the land
issues concern inequitable access
among different social groups, gender
disparities, and skewed ownership. In
countries or societies where the right
to use land is guided by customary law,
high population densities and pressures on arable land have contributed
to increasing tensions. This has resulted in increased encroachment on
protected forests for farming, causing
long-term changes in land-use practices. There is an increase in the privatization of state-owned land in some
countries to induce foreign investment, and this has pushed some citizens to more unsuitable lands. Thus,
most land-use issues relate to poor
land-use planning, poor agricultural
practices, and encroachment of agriculture into environmentally fragile
areas and protected areas.
Women account for the greater proportion of food production in the agriculture sector and conduct the bulk of
related activities (SADC 2004). However, few women own land and are often
side-lined in decision- and policy-making processes. Table 3.2 shows land allocation by gender in Zimbabwe in
2002, after the initial phases of the land
reform programme.
Land Allocation by Gender in Zimbabwe during Land Reform Programme
Province
Model A1
Number
of Males
Model A1
%
Model A1
Number of
Females
Model A1
%
Model A2
Number of
Males
Model A2
%
Model A2
Number of
Females
Model A2
%
Midlands
Masvingo
Mash.Central
Mash.West
Mash. East
Mat. South
Mat. North
Manicaland
Total
14 800
19 026
12 986
21 782
12 967
7 754
7 919
9 527
106 986
82
84
88
81
76
87
84
82
82
3 198
3 644
1 770
5 270
3 992
1 169
1 490
2 190
22 723
18
16
12
19
24
13
16
18
18
338
709
1 469
1 777
*
215
574
961
6 043
95
82
87
89
*
79
83
91
88
17
64
215
226
*
56
121
97
796
5
8
13
11
*
21
17
9
12
Utete, C.M.B., Report of the Presidential Land Review Committee on the Implementation of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme 2000-2002
This data, drawn from the Report of

the Presidential Land Review Committee (Utete 2003), shows that only 18 percent of beneficiaries were women for
allocation of land under the smallholders A1 model, and 12 percent of beneficiaries under the commercial A2
model.
Land Use Changes

Land Cover Changes
Land Cover refers to the actual coverage of the surface of the earth with
natural or human-made environment
forests, grass, crops, water bodies
(lakes, rivers), marshes, rock, sand
dunes, roads, urban settlement. Land
Map 3.1
Use refers to the usage of the land

cover. Commercial forestry, pastures,
irrigated farming, rain-fed cropping,
recreational areas, game reserves, mining, urban areas and industrial estates
are examples of types of land use.
Map 3.1 shows Land Cover and Land
Use in the Zambezi Basin.
Most parts of the basin are covered
by forests and bush land (almost 75 percent of the land area) (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012). Cropped land, mostly
rain-fed agriculture, covers 13 percent of
the land area, and grassland covers approximately eight percent of the land
area. Table 3.3 shows that changes in individual countries have varied since 2002
for agricultural land with some registering
negative changes in some years.
Land Cover and Land Use in the Zambezi River Basin
71
Table 3.3
Change of Agricultural Area Per Year (%)
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
-0.17
0.43
0.96
-0.08
0.42
1.48
3.04
-0.58
2.12
0.21
0.29
0.25
1.2
3.49
0.16
0.17
0.93
0.29
0.27
1.51
3.33
0.35
-0.19
3.11
0.1
0.21
1.3
1.16
6.04
0.12
0.21
2.6
-0.05
2.24
5.12
0.06
4.02
-0.21
0.57
-0.59
0.63
4.48
-0.15
2.03
0.62
1.26
0.93
4.69
0.17
-0.07
-5.69
-0.03
0.82
-0.28
-5.08
0.38
8.04
-0.1
3.72
0.45
1.23
13.7
1.04
0.14
1.95
0.82
0.61
1.29
-0.79
5.06
0.17
-0.22
1.83
0.27
1.5
3.55
-1.26
-1.26
FAOSTAT 2013
72
The figures in Table 3.3 show minimal

annual changes in areas under agriculture
for most basin states, although data is incomplete. Malawi experienced significant
annual changes between 2006 and 2008
with a massive decrease between 2006
and 2007 followed by an even bigger increase between 2007 and 2008. Some
countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe
had years of decreasing area under agriculture, while others showed little change.
This may be due to various socio-economic factors that impacted the capacity
of farmers in the following season.
Food Production and Food Security

Trends
Agriculture remains the single most important sector in the Zambezi River Basin
from the perspective of peoples survival
and arguably the sector with the largest
potential to help people out of poverty.
Agriculture contributes significantly
to basin economies, given low levels of
industrialization in the area. The importance of land and agriculture development to poverty reduction, economic
growth, food security, gender equity and
nutrition in the Zambezi Basin therefore, remains central. The sector accounts for 54 percent of employment in
the entire SADC region and for an average of 58 percent in the eight countries of the Zambezi River Basin.
The economic significance of agriculture is further underlined by its contribution to a countrys macro-economy
and for most of the Zambezi Basin riparian states, the contribution has been
substantial over the years. The sector remains the engine of growth, accounting
for more than 20 percent of national
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for
some countries in the basin such as
Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and
Zambia during the period 2007 to 2011
(Table 3.4). In Zimbabwe, the decline
from 21.3 percent in 2007 to 15.5 percent in 2011 can be attributed to recent
economic challenges.
By 2010 the agriculture contribution
to GDP increased to 30.1 percent for
Mozambique while for Tanzania and
Zambia this decreased to 27.8 percent
and 20.1 percent, respectively (Table
3.4). Only Zambia has consistent data
on the share of agriculture in employment, but this has been growing rapidly
in the past decade and may be indicative
for neighbouring countries.
Apart from its contribution to national GDP, agriculture is also a major export commodity in most Basin states
(Table 3.5). Malawi has the largest share
of agricultural commodities in its exports
while Botswana has the least. However, as
explained later, in Chapter 9, there is little
value addition for most agricultural commodities which are exported in a raw
state, resulting in low export earnings.
Table 3.4
Share of Agriculture in Gross Domestic Product and Employment

GDP Share (%)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
United Republic of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Employment Share (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8.0
2.1
29.8
27.0
9.2
29.6
19.8
21.3
6.8
2.0
10.5
3.0
10.1
2.5
10.2
2.5
28.5
7.9
29.4
19.8
23.7
28.8
7.8
28.4
20.8
19.3
30.1
7.8
27.8
20.1
17.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
64
66
73
79
85
7.8
19.4
15.5
SADC, SADC Statistical Year Book 2014
Area Under Cultivation

Subsistence and commercial agriculture
in the basin largely depend on rainfall,
which is variable across the region making rain-fed agriculture risky.
The vast land and water resources
in the Zambezi River Basin present opportunities to increase food production
for domestic use and export. Land
under irrigation is estimated at just 3.6
percent of its 5.2 million hectares of
land under cultivation (SADC and ZRA
2007). This shows that the Zambezi
Basin is yet to fully utilise its irrigation
potential and decrease its dependence
on rain-fed agriculture. Table 3.6 shows
irrigated land by country, and its share
in arable land and permanent crops. As
seen in Table 3.6, there has been no remarkable increase in the area under irriTable 3.6
Table 3.5
Share of Agriculture in Exports (%)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2006
2007
2008
1.0
95.2
13.3
11.2
29.3
8.6
53.5
2.9
91.8
12.2
9.5
29.0
8.6
23.0
3.1
89.3
12.4
7.5
31.4
6.8
24.3
1999-2001
(000 ha)
Angola
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
80.0
51.7
20.3
115.0
7.3
163.0
133.3
174.0
2003-2005
(000 ha)
80.0
56.0
21.3
118.0
8.0
184.0
156.0
174.0
5.2
89.5
42.8
11.5
35.3
8.7
29.7
gation. There is need for Basin states to

invest in irrigated agriculture as the area
will face increased incidence of
droughts as a result of climate change.
Irrigated Land in the Zambezi Basin by Country and Share

in Arable Land and Permanent Crops
Country
2009 2010
2006
(000 ha)
2007
(000 ha)
2008
(000 ha)
80.0
56.0
21.0
118.0
8.0
184.0
156.0
174.0
80.0
59.0
21.0
118.0
8.0
184.0
156.0
174.0
80.0
59.0
21.0
118.0
8.0
184.0
156.0
174.0
5.2
78.3
18.4
12.1
25.5
6.6
22.4
2011
2.4
79.3
20.4
12.0
29.5
9.1
29.4
73
Cereal Production and Food

Security
The Zambezi River Basin faces a deficit
in all cereal crops (sorghum, millet,
wheat and rice) except maize. In
2012/2013 most countries in the Basin
experienced cereal deficits, except
Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia.
At SADC level, the cereal production in 2013 was estimated at 35.11
million tonnes, up from 31.47 million
tonnes in 2012 and 34.59 million
tonnes in 2011. The 2013 regional cereal production represents a five percent increase over the average SADC
cereal production for the last five
Figure 3.1
years, indicating continued above-average cereal production in the region in

recent years compared to the past fiveyear average cereal production (20072011).
Most countries in the basin
recorded decreases in cereal production
in 2012, with only Namibia and Tanzania increasing harvests in 2012 over
2011 (SADC 2012d; SADC2013). Tanzania has registered a significantly high
and increasing trend in cereal production in the past six years. However, as a
Basin there has been a net cereal deficit.
Figure 3.1 shows trends in cereal production by country.
Cereal Production Trend
74
SADC 2012d; 2013. Food Security Updates July 2012 and July 2013
Table 3.7
Maize Production by Country

(000 tonnes)
2000
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2001
2002
2003
458.7
546.9
618.7
530.6
9.3
2.4
2.0
1.3
2 290.0 1 589.4 1 485.3 1 847.5
1 180.4
0.0 1 114.8 1 178.8
49.2
28.3
27.6
31.0
2 009.3 2 578.6 2 704.8 2 322.0
850.5
801.9
601.6 1 157.9
1 619.7 1 526.3
604.8 1 058.8
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
720.3
526.1
6.2
2.6
1 608.3 1 225.2
0.0
941.5
64.8
52.9
3 157.4 3 218.5
1 213.6
866.2
1 686.2
915.4
615.9
10.5
2 611.5
1 395.5
63.6
3 423.0
1 424.4
1 484.8
702.4
0.9
3 226.4
1 133.9
55.5
3 302.1
1 366.2
1 161.6
970.2
10.6
2 634.7
1 167.0
58.1
3 555.8
1 211.6
496.0
1 320.8
16.6
3 582.5
1 932.0
57.3
3 326.0
1 887.0
700.0
969.8
17.6
3 233.0
1 878.0
58.0
4 475.4
2 795.5
1 192.4
Maize is the staple food crop in

most of the countries in the Basin, but
maize production has not shown significant growth over the years to align with
population growth, despite the growing
demand for food. Table 3.7 shows
trends in maize production by country
in the Zambezi Basin.
Figure 3.2 shows the trends in the
population at risk of food insecurity,
comparing the eight riparian countries
and the SADC region as a whole.
This shows that from 2005 to 2010 the
food insecure population in the eight
countries within the basin has been declining and from 2011 it started increasing again while in the SADC region as a
whole, the declining trend continued up
to 2012 and only increased in 2013. This
may be an indication that the countries
in the Zambezi River Basin are more

vulnerable to food insecurity than the
other SADC member states.
At the local level, women are traditionally responsible for producing food
for their families, especially in rural areas.
In the SADC region, women contribute
more than 60 percent to total food production (SARDC 2008). Agricultural activities are not only a means to produce
food, however, as studies in Western
Zambia have shown that women also rely
on farming for income due to limited economic opportunities in other sectors
(Kent and MacRae 2010). Food security
is linked to the social and economic livelihoods of many women thereby increasing vulnerability to food insecurity.
Population at risk of food insecurity by
country is shown in Table 3.8.
Figure 3.2 Trend in Food Insecure Population
75
SADC, Food Security Update July 2013
Table 3.8
Population at Risk of Food Insecurity in the Zambezi Basin by Country

2004
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Basin Countries
SADC
2011
2012
2013
1 340 000 5 055 000

833 000
63 234
613 291
275 168
508 089
271 502
108 203
801 655
240 000
520 000
302 664
281 300
350 000
245 000
224 795
42 100
243 474
688 360
850 023 4 418 503
216 142
425 313 1 849 497 1 141 214 1 618 795
39 300 1 232 661
380 537
440 866
444 624
110 000
53 629
74 804
2 300 000 2 884 800 1 392 500 4 100 000 5 100 000 1 400 000 1 287 937 1 390 000
4 475 863 10 824 139 7 264 540 5 340 242 6 885 892 4 140 760 3 382 969 3 843 575
17 037 503 21 675 129 14 992 597 12 897 708 22 255 264 17 042 661 17 484 132 15 289 336
367 190
1 972 993
270 000
74 711
1 472 127
62 642
1 668 000
5 887 663
12 174 095
700 000
372 479
1 461 940
212 000
778 504
1 615 445
209 498
2 206 924
7 556 790
14 426 487
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Land and Agriculture Challenges
76
Declining Per Capita Land

Availability
There is a consistent shrinkage in per
capita land availability in the Zambezi
Basin, and this is projected to decline to
2.56 hectares/person by 2025 from as
much as 4.16 hectares/person in 1998
(SARDC/SADC and others 2012). In
Sub-Saharan Africa, the average farm
size has declined over the past decade,
from 2.42 hectares in 2002 to 2.16
hectares in 2008 (CGIAR 2013). The
decline in farm size has been driven primarily by growing rural populations and
sub-division of land upon inheritance.
The proportion of the population
who live in the rural areas varies from
country to country from about 50 percent in Zambia to as high as 85 percent
in Malawi. Population density and per
capita land area in the Zambezi River
Basin are shown in Figure 3.3.
Declining land per capita can result
in land shortages, often leading to encroachment into marginal lands and environmentally sensitive areas such as
wetlands and protected areas, although
some wetlands such as dambos have been
Figure 3.3 Population Density and Per Capita Land Area in
the Zambezi Basin
farmed traditionally and sustainably for

centuries using Indigenous Knowledge
Systems (IKS). In Malawi, for example,
land appraisal studies done in the early
1990s indicated that some 16 percent of
cultivation was being done in marginal
and unsuitable areas (Green and Nanthambwe 1992).
Declining land per capita can have
an impact on food production, depending on cropping methods and access to
irrigation. The increase in population
density results in increased pressure on
the finite natural resource such as land,
and this can lead to conflicts, especially
where land rights are not clearly defined.
Besides the expansion of cropland,
deforestation and land degradation present major challenges to most countries in
the Zambezi River Basin. Reports by the
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
(2009) and United Republic of Tanzania
(2006) show that in Tanzania alone, the
rate of deforestation is about 412, 000
hectares per annum. Population growth
and economic necessity are cited as some
of the underlying causes of forest degradation and loss in Tanzania, a situation
not dissimilar to other Basin states. A
2010 UNDP report shows that 1 to 25
percent of the population in Angola,
Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia and Tanzania, and 26 to 50 percent of the population in Zambia and
Zimbabwe live on degraded lands.
In addition to increased pressure on
finite natural resources, a growing population results in increased demand for
food. This puts pressure on available land
to produce more crops and animals. With
time, the overuse of land reduces its fertility, leading to a decline in yields. This
then leads to the use of artificial fertilizers
and pesticides, which have a negative impact on natural resources, particularly on
freshwater resources. However, the intensification of crop and animal production
through the use of production-enhancing
technologies as a response to the decline
farm sizes has led to improvements in
productivity, increased yields and increased animal productivity.
Deforestation
The growing population and increased
demand for agricultural products within
the Zambezi River Basin has impacted
on several land-based natural resources,
including a reduction in forest cover
thereby exposing the land to forms of
degradation.
Table 3.9 shows that 33,000
hectares, 50,000 hectares and 125,000
hectares of forests in Malawi, Mozambique and Angola respectively were
cleared every year between 1990 and
2000, representing a rate of 0.9, 0.3 and
0.2 percent for these countries (Syampungani and others 2012). In the years
2000 to 2005 the annual forest loss remained the same. For Zimbabwe, Zambia and Tanzania the loss between 2000
and 2005 ranged from 313,000 to
445,000 hectares per year representing
annual rates of 1.7, 1.0 and 1.1 percent
respectively.
These rates are lower than those
from other studies. For instance, studies
conducted in Malawi between 1973 and
1991 showed that during this period the
country lost about 2.5 million of its 4.4
million hectares of forest cover, representing an annual deforestation rate of
2.8 percent (Yaron and others 2011).
Official estimates of forestry resources
decline are put at 2.6 percent per annum
in the country (GoM 2008). The differences in the rate of deforestation from
Table 3.9
various studies, and also in Table 3.9, indicate the data gaps that exist on the estimation of deforestation in the basin.
These national deforestation rates
mask a great deal of local variations
within the countries and across the basin
as a number of human activities such as
agriculture, urbanization, industrialization,
mining, communication infrastructure
and others continue to remove the land
cover through deforestation, thus exposing the land to massive degradation.
Soil Erosion and Fertility Decline
Soil erosion is the loss of top soil through
agents such as wind and water. It is made
worse by human impacts such as poor
cultivation practices, deforestation, fires,
cultivation of marginal and unsuitable
areas and other activities that disturb and
expose the soil. Soil erosion has impacts
which are both on-site (at the place where
the soil is detached) and off-site (wherever
the eroded soil ends up).
Cultivation in much of the Zambezi
River Basin area has encroached into environmentally fragile areas such as steep
slopes, river banks, shallow soils and wetlands often without appropriate conservation measures put in place and this has
led to increased soil erosion. This coupled with small per capita landholding
sizes, forces smallholder farmers to use
the land continuously without fallow and
rotation. This leads to continual tilling of
77
Deforestation in the Zambezi River Basin

Annual Rate of Change
Total Forest (2005)
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Hectares
59 104 000
3 402 000
19 262 000
35 257 000
42 452 000
17 540 000
1990 to 2000
Hectares / year
-125 000
-33 000
-50 000
- 412 000
-445 000
-313 000
2000 2005
%
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-1.0
-0.9
-1.5
Syampungani and others, Deforestation of East and Southern African Woodlands, 2012
Hectares / year
-125 000
-33 000
-50 000
- 412 000
-445 000
-313 000
%
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-1.1
-1.0
-1.7
the soil often without returning nutrients back to the soils through application of inorganic and organic fertilizers.
As a result, continuous cultivation leads
to the soil structure and texture being
distributed, leading to loss of soil fertility hence declining crop yields.
The offsite impacts of soil erosion
include sedimentation of water bodies
and loss of breeding grounds for fish,
destruction of infrastructure such as
roads and bridges, among others. In the
Shire River sub-basin, where in some
catchments the soil erosion is estimated
at more than 25 tonnes per hectare per
year, it is attributed to the disruption
caused by hydropower generation along
the Shire River which provides more
than 95 percent of Malawis hydro generation (World Bank 2012). The threat
posed by soil erosion in the Shire River
Basin to the social and economic development of Malawi has led to several initiatives to address the problem
supported by a number of donors including the World Bank, JICA and
UNDP.
Good crop management practices
are at the centre of improved plant protection and production. The yield gaps
between research and smallholder farm
levels can be explained by inadequacies
in crop husbandry such as poor land
preparation, untimely planting, incorrect
plant population, poor fertility management techniques, weed management and
plant protection. The other husbandry
78
Table 3.10
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
practices such as intercropping with

legumes, rotation and fallowing are not
widely practiced. The small farm sizes
have contributed to reducing fallows to
zero as smallholder farmers are forced
to intensify production to meet their requirements.
Early planting is often challenged
by the unpredictability of effective
planting rains that may result from erratic drought cycles made worse by climate change and variability that make
farmers miss the first planting opportunity. In general, the untimely husbandry
operations are as a result of labour constraints, lack of knowledge, limited
mechanization, general lack of resources, and under-resourced agricultural extension systems.
Land Degradation
Human pressure on land resources is
causing widespread environmental
degradation in the Basin states. As
shown in Table 3.10, about 70 percent
of the regions land surface is degraded.
Of this figure, 55 percent is lightly to
moderately degraded while the remainder is severely to very severely degraded
and associated with high human and animal population densities. Land and soil
disturbances associated with land degradation reduce the water-holding capacity
of soil, as well as soil fertility and the
population of beneficial soil-inhabiting,
micro-organisms. This has adverse effects on agriculture and food security.
Severity of Land Degradation in the Zambezi Basin

Total land area
(sq km)
No degradation
(% of total land area)
1 247 000
582 000
118 000
799 000
824 000
945 000
753 000
390 000
SADC and SARDC, Southern Africa Environment Outlook, 2008
61
31
39
31
57
12
7
7
Light to moderate
degradation (% of
total land area)
26
57
61
68
21
62
65
92
Severe to very severe

degradation (% of
total land area)
13
11
0
0
23
25
17
0
The increasing population of cattle

and other livestock is an ongoing trend in
the Zambezi Basin over many years (Figure 3.4 and 3.5). The total cattle population was estimated at 35 million in the
year 2000, increasing to 41.4 million by
2011, an increase of 17.7 percent over
those years and a growth rate of about 2
percent per year (SADC 2011). Thus
there are almost as many cattle as people
in the Basin. The concentration of animals including goats per cropped land has
been increasing, and this has implications
on the environmental impact as goats are
browsers and can degrade the environment if not properly managed.
This growing animal population has
increased pressure on land, leading to
Figure 3.4
overgrazing particularly in areas where

stocking rates outstrip the carrying capacities. In areas where large herds are
confined to small spaces in rural areas,
where land availability is limited and intensive management is not practiced,
the livestock cause soil compaction and
dislodging, and loss of biodiversity leading to land degradation.
Soil Salinization
Soil salinization is the accumulation of
excess salts in the root zone resulting in
partial or complete loss of soil fertility
affecting crop growth and causing the
eventual disappearance of vegetation.
The presence of soluble salts adversely
affects the growth of most plants. This
Cattle Population in the Zambezi Basin

79
Figure 3.5
Cattle Population in the Basin Countries
SADC Livestock Information Management System 2014
is widespread in the arid and semi-arid

regions and thus, in the Zambezi River
Basin, the problem is particularly serious
in Botswana and Namibia, although it
also occurs to some extent in Tanzania,
Zimbabwe and other countries (Sommer and others 2013).
In Africa the extent of salinization is
estimated to cover 3.8 million hectares.
Table 3.11 shows the distribution of areas
affected by soil salinization in Basin states.
Table 3.11
Country
80
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
Soil Salinization in the Zambezi River Basin

Saline/
Solonchaks
(000 hectares)
581
6 765
69
1 203
3 478
1 963
0
349
14 408
Sodic/
Solonetz (000
hectares)
Cumulative
Total (000
hectares)
81
906
0
113
1 657
325
2 838
957
6 877
662
7 671
69
1 316
5 135
2 288
2 838
1 306
21 285
Sommer and others, Profitable and Sustainable Nutrient Management Systems for East and
Southern African Smallholder Farming Systems, 2013; FAO Integrated Soil Management for
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Southern and East Africa, 1999
Salinization is a more serious problem in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and

Tanzania, and to some extent Botswana
and Mozambique, as shown in Table 3.11.
The major cause of soil salinization in the
Basin is the scarcity, variability and unreliability of rainfall and the high potential
evapotranspiration that affects the water
and salt balance of the soil.
Disease Outbreaks / New Strains
Livestock is an important sub-sector of
agricultural production in the Zambezi
River Basin. At SADC level it accounts
for 20 to 40 percent of the Agricultural
GDP and holds a high social value for
rural communities in the region.
The animal disease which has had a
great impact on livestock in the Basin is
Food and Mouth Disease (FMD). The
underlying problem is that most healthy

populations of African buffalo harbour
the Foot and Mouth virus on a continuous basis. This means that only localities where buffalo do not occur (or
alternatively those few where the buffalo
are free from infection) qualify for
recognition as being free from FMD.
Largescale Land Acquisition
Largescale commercial land acquisition by
foreigners for investment purposes has
been reported in some countries in the
Basin and elsewhere Africa. A study released in September 2010 identified 45
million hectares under negotiation for allocation in 2009, of which 70 percent
(about 32 million hectares) was in Africa
(Future Agricultures Consortium 2011).
In recent years, biofuels have rapidly
emerged as a major issue for agricultural
development, energy policy, and natural
resource management. Growing demand
for biofuels is being driven by recent high
oil prices, energy security concerns, and
global climate change (Sulle and Nelson
2009). There is overwhelming investment
interest and land alienation in the name
of biofuels production in African countries, driven largely by the low cost of land
and labour in rural Africa (FAC 2011;
Kachika undated).
Most reported acquisitions in the
Zambezi Basin are in Tanzania, Mozambique and Zambia (FAC 2011; Chikopa
2012). In Tanzania, 640,000 hectares have
been allocated for the production of biofuels for Jatropha curcas, sugar cane and
palm oil. Potential investors have applied
for a total of 4 million hectares. In
Mozambique it is reported that the government is striving to become a regional
agro-fuel hub. Agro-fuel investors applied
for rights to 5 million hectares in the
country in 2007 alone (Kachika undated).
In such a scenario, the security of land
tenure and access or use rights on the part
of local resident communities across rural
landscapes is potentially at risk. Such acquisition of land and resources in the
form of development projects has been
termed by Benjaminsen and Bryceson
(2012) as green or blue grabbing. In

many African countries, land alienation by
foreign investors is supported by government policies and laws, occasionally combined with the use of violence to enforce
laws (Chikopa 2012).
The extent of largescale acquisition
and its impact in the Zambezi Basin is
not well documented. The question to
be asked is whether these foreign demands and promises can be met while
observing sustainability guidelines and
without marginalizing the land rights of
local communities. Investment and acquisition of farm land need not always
be foreign to have a negative impact on
local communities however, and there
are examples of the acquisition of large
chunks of land by local elites and
emerging elites in Basin states.
Interventions on Land and Agriculture

National agricultural policies that determine access to agrarian resources and
services have traditionally assumed that
commercial, large-scale farmers and
landowners are men. Such thinking has
resulted in institutional decisions that increase the gender gap. Focusing national
resources and efforts to promote cash
crops comes at the expense of food crops
including vegetable production in which
the majority are farmed by women,
thereby increasing their vulnerability.
Farmers use their local knowledge to address some of the challenges they face on
land and agriculture. This local knowledge is part of an Indigenous Knowledge
System (IKS) that has helped communities to address disaster risk reduction for
centuries. One example is the slash-andburn system, called chitemene, practiced in
Zambias extensive miombo woodlands.
This entails coppicing trees, burning the
piled biomass to create ash which is left
in-field to raise soil pH, fumigate soils,
kill weed seeds, creating a fine tilth in the
topmost soil layer.
In addition, intercropping practice

has been used by farmers in the Zambezi Basin for crops that include
maize, finger millet, and pumpkins for
three to five years without the use of
external fertilizers. There are various
forms of chitemene. Indigenous methods to improve productivity include
the introduction of mounds (heaps) as
practiced in Mambwe, Northern
Province, Zambia (Siame 2006).
Mound cultivation is also significant in
Angola (Musonda 1994) and in some
of the districts in northern Malawi
where cassava is the staple food.
Farmers in Muzarabani, Zimbabwe
have developed adaptation strategies to
flooding. In a traditional practice commonly known as mudzedze, crops are
grown during both wet and dry seasons
in flood recessional areas. During the
wet season, farmers grow drought-resistant crops such as millet, rapoko and
early maturing maize removed from the
floodplain (Mavhura and others 2003).
In southern Malawi, farmers adapt
through measures including crop diversification, using local fruits, applying organic manure, intensifying mixed animal
and crop systems and improving irrigation (Magombo and others 2011).
For livestock, ethno-veterinary
strategies have managed tsetse fly in
some of the riparian countries. Ecological approaches were used until
81
82
the1960s. These included smoking cattle

by burning cow dung to chase away insects, moving cattle at night, smearing
lion fat as repellent, opening up fields
between tsetse areas and settlements,
using herbs to protect cattle, and several
other methods (Machila 1999).
The land is considered to be sacred by most of the traditional communities in the Zambezi River Basin.
Land has been held and used in trust
by present generations on behalf of
ancestors for the benefit of future
generations. Consequently, there exist
many traditions around land such as
sacred sites, special resource niches,
burial sites and community sites. Most
traditions agree that all people in principle should share in the land resource
as they need it to survive.
There have been a number of
strategies developed to address challenges on the land and agriculture subsectors in order to achieve sustainable
agricultural intensification and achieve
optimal contribution of land resources
to poverty reduction, improved livelihoods of resource dependent communities, economic development of
national governments and sustainable
environmental management. These interventions are being implemented at
different levels continental, sub regional, basin wide, national and local or
community levels.
In southern Africa, including the
Zambezi Basin, poverty is mostly associated with low agricultural productivity. As a result, most governments
have put in place poverty reduction
strategies that include vision statements and a number of policies, strategies and programmes. Some countries
have developed specific agricultural
policies and strategies for sustained
economic growth. These agriculture
policies aim at promoting diversification in relation to climate change,
commercialization and increasing productivity. Thus, agriculture is seen to
be the engine of income generation
and poverty reduction for the rural
poor. Some countries in the basin such

as Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania and Zimbabwe have designed programmes that
aim at subsidizing production through
the provision of inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and machinery with varying successes.
Multilateral Environmental
Agreements
The relevant policy interventions at international level applicable to land and agricultural issues in the basin include the
various Multilateral Environmental
Agreements (MEAs), in particular the
three Rio de Janeiro Conventions; the
United Nations Convention on
Biological Diversity; the UN Convention
to Control Desertification; and the UN
Framework Convention on Climate
Change. These instruments have a bearing on land management and agriculture
and environmental sustainability. All
countries in the Zambezi River Basin are
party to these MEAs and have developed
national strategies and action plans towards meeting their obligations. However,
implementation of the national strategies
is said to be constrained by lack of adequate resources in most Basin states.
African Union Policies
A number of instruments guide African
Union member states in ensuring sustainable land and environmental management and agricultural development.
These include the New Partnership for
Africas Development (NEPAD) Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP); the
Action Plan of the Environmental Initiative of NEPAD; and the Framework
and Guidelines on Land Policy in Africa
(FGLPA) spearheaded by the African
Union Commission/UN Economic
Commission for Africa/African Development Bank. CAADP comprises four
mutually reinforcing pillars:
Sustainable land and water management;
Improved market access and integration;
Increased food supplies and reduced

hunger; and
Research, technology generation, dissemination and adoption.
CAADP aims at increasing agricultural productivity by at least six percent
and commits countries to increase investment in the agricultural sector by allocating at least 10 percent of national
budgets to the sector. FGLPA on the
other hand provides voluntary guidelines on land policy reforms and management including addressing gender
imbalances in access and sharing of
benefits from land, considering the centrality of land in the social and economic development of African
countries.
SADC Level Interventions
Regional Indicative Strategic
Development Plan
In 2004 SADC adopted the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan

(RISDP) which is a 15-year roadmap for
deeper regional integration and poverty
reduction. The RISDP has eleven priority intervention areas, and directly relevant to land and agriculture are the areas
dealing with sustainable food security
(production, availability and food safety)
which also addresses issues of sustainable natural resources management
(fisheries, forestry and wildlife). Another
intervention area that is directly relevant
to this sector deals with environment
and sustainable development, promotes
environmental mainstreaming and the
integration of environmental and sustainable development issues into sectoral, national and sub-regional
development planning.
The RISDP has been revised and
updated for 2015 to 2020. The major
achievements from the previous RISDP
targets for agriculture include:
An Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS) was established to facilitate the collection,
analysis, dissemination, archiving of
information and integration of vari-
ous information systems within the

region. A website has been developed
to allow Member States to access
timely information on agricultural
trade figures, disease outbreaks, food
security, environment, animal health,
production and marketing from
Member States.
Early Warning Units were established
in 12 Member States to collect,
analyse, and disseminate early warning information covering seasonal
rainfall and crop development, harvest forecasting, import and exports,
food stocks, price and market monitoring. This information is published
regularly at both national and regional levels. Similarly, Vulnerability
Assessment and Analysis Committees (VAACs) were also established in
12 Member States to assess food
availability, undertake livelihood profiling and vulnerabilities, and assess
emergency and response needs. The
assessments are used by Member
States to inform policy formulation,
developing programmes and emergency interventions that lead to reduction of vulnerability in the
context of food security.
Relevant Protocols and Declarations
SADC has developed and signed a number of protocols and declarations that
are relevant to land management and
agriculture in the Zambezi River Basin.
These include the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses which provides the framework for management of
river basins, as well as wildlife management and law enforcement, gender, energy, mining, forestry and fisheries.
These agreements provide for sustainable use of natural resources. The Basin
being a shared resource, it is important
that its management conforms to the
provisions of the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses and other
protocols for the benefit of all riparian
countries. The main objectives of some
of the protocols and declarations are
summarized in Box 3.1.
83
Box 3.1
SADC PROTOCOLS AND DECLARATIONS
SADC PROTOCOL ON WILDLIFE CONSERVATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT, 1999

The protocol provides policy, administrative and legal measures for promoting conservation
and sustainable wildlife management practices in SADC Member States.
REVISED SADC PROTOCOL ON SHARED WATERCOURSES, 2000
This provides for close cooperation among Member States for the protection, management,
and use of shared watercourses in the region, including the Zambezi River Basin. It calls for
collaboration on initiatives that balance development of watercourses with conservation of
the environment, and it establishes the legal framework for appropriate institutions to guide
the implementation of the provisions of the protocol.
SADC PROTOCOL ON FORESTRY, 2002
These promotes the development, conservation, sustainable management and utilization of
all types of forests, trade in forest products, and protection of the environment to safeguard
the interests of both present and future generations.
84
DAR ES SALAAM DECLARATION ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE, 2004

The declaration reaffirms commitments of the SADC Member States to implement short,
medium and long-term measures to address food insecurity through provision of key agricultural inputs, agro-industrial development and processing, crop and livestock pests and disease control, and improvement in water management and irrigation.
SADC DECLARATION ON POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, 2008
This aims at achieving food security and provides for the establishment of a Regional Poverty
Observatory and a SADC Development Fund to support actions in the priority areas of
poverty eradication and sustainable development.
Regional Land Reform Support

Facility
Realizing the importance of developing

and implementing pro-poor land reform
policies and programmes in SADC
Member States, a Regional Land Reform Support Facility was established at
the Secretariat in 2007 following an institutional study (SADC 2007). The Facility was to work with member states
through facilitation of best practices
and provision of technical and financial
support to member states. The facility
faced a number of challenges including
capacity and funding and its activities
could not be sustained.
Regional Agricultural Policy
SADC is developing a legally binding instrument to stimulate sustainable agricultural development and food security in
the region. Once approved the RAP will

define common agreed objectives and
measures to guide, promote and support
actions at regional and national levels in
the agricultural sector in support of regional integration and in contribution to
the attainment of the SADC Customs
Union and Common Market. It is envisaged that the SADC RAP will:
create a framework for harmonizing
and integrating policy objectives,
strategies and programmes of the
Member States;
provide opportunities to capitalize on
the trade benefits of improved resource allocation and greater competition;
permit a wider range of projects to
be implemented under the RISDP;
provide improved market access to
the other countries;
promote the objectives of multilateralism, facilitate implementation of

politically difficult domestic policies;
and
strengthen multilateral bargaining
power in international fora.
Centre for Coordination of Agricultural
Research and Development for Southern
Africa (CCARDESA)
This is a new sub-regional research institution that coordinates the implementation of agricultural research and
development in the SADC region.
CCARDESAs goal is to sustainably reduce the food insecurity and poverty in the
region, including the Zambezi Basin states,
as pronounced in the SADC RISDP, the
Dar es Salaam Declaration on Food and
Agriculture, and the AUs Comprehensive
African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP). The strategic objective
of CCARDESA is to increase smallholder
productivity and competitiveness through
the implementation of Pillar 4 of CAADP
on Agricultural research, technology dissemination and adoption for the SADC
region, based on the Framework for
African Agricultural Productivity. This will
define and coordinate the research agenda
in various aspects for southern African
countries including the ZRB states.
SADC Seed Centre
Building on the achievements of the former SADC Seed Security Network

(SSSN) project, a SADC Seed Centre has
been established with the objective of facilitating the co-ordination and implementation of the regional Harmonised
Seed Regulatory System. The SADC
Seed Centre has the following functions:
Quality assurance for regional variety
release, certification and phytosanitary
regulations;
Coordination and quality assurance
of seed-related capacity development;
Development of an effective information exchange system;
Coordination of seed programs in
SADC region; and,
Resource mobilization.
This is addressing the challenge of

seed quality and availability among member states including the ZRB countries.
SADC Plant Genetic Resource Centre
The SADC Plant Genetic Resources

Centre (SPGRC) is a SADC institution
whose objectives are to:
conserve and guarantee safe conservation of crop and wild plant genetic
resources;
document the plant genetic resources
of the region to ensure their efficient
and sustainable use;
provide a forum for exchange of scientific, cultural, traditional and
indigenous knowledge and experiences;
train personnel in plant genetic resources management; and,
co-ordinate plant genetic resources
activities in the SADC region.
SPGRC was set up as a network activity to promote and coordinate a regional
network for plant genetic resources management through the National Plant Genetic Resources Centres. The activities of
the network include the collection, conservation, documentation, evaluation and utilization of regional plant germplasm,
thereby contributing to raising the standard of living and welfare of people in the
region and the Basin.
SADC / COMESA Regional Projects
SADC and COMESA through their relevant institutions and with support from
cooperating partners coordinate a number
of regional projects and programmes in
livestock development, crop development,
wildlife, forestry and fisheries, and in environment and sustainable development.
Some of the livestock initiatives include:
Promotion of Regional Integration in
the Livestock Sector;
Strengthening institutions for management of Transboundary Animals
Diseases (TADs); and
SADC Foot and Mouth Disease programme.
Other projects are in crop production,
early warning systems, forestry and environmental education. Jointly COMESA,
85
SADC and the East African Community

are implementing a Tripartite Climate
Change Programme that will look at
sustainable land-management practices
including conservation agriculture.
The Agricultural Productivity Programme for Southern Africa (APPSA)
that seeks to promote a regional approach to agricultural technology generation and dissemination is supported
by the World Bank, and currently being
implemented in Malawi, Mozambique
and Zambia. Another regional initiative
is the promotion of conservation agriculture, driven by the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) for capacity building, research and extension
through the National Conservation
Agriculture Task Forces in SADC member states, including the Zambezi Basin
states.
86
Projects in the Zambezi River Basin

Due to the economic importance of the
Zambezi River Basin, there are a number of projects addressing various aspects in the riparian countries. In
Malawi for example, which is almost entirely in the Zambezi Basin, there are a
number of basin-wide initiatives that include the Sustainable Land Management
Project supported by UNDP/GEF, the
Shire River Basin Management Programme supported by the World Bank,
the Environment Management Action
Plan supported by the United States and
implemented by the Millennium Challenge Account Malawi. Other projects
in the Zambezi Basin include the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM), Zambezi Basin Development
Project in Zambia and Zimbabwe, the
Zambezi Basin Initiative, and many others. These projects address the challenges in food security, environmental
degradation and climate change at basin
level. ZAMCOM is an institution set up
by countries that share the Zambezi
River Basin with the objective of promoting the equitable utilization, efficient
management and sustainable development of the shared water resources.
Gazetted and Protected Areas
There are many protected conservation

areas in the Zambezi Basin states, including national parks, game reserves and forest reserves. In Tanzania, for example out
of 94.3 million hectares of the total land
surface, almost 30 percent (29.44) is reserved. Benjaminsen and others (2007)
conclude that as much as 40 percent of
the land area of Tanzania is under some
form of environmental protection, including more recently announced areas
under community-based conservation.
These are established by most Basin states
to partner local communities in conservation of resources and avoid encroachment into these protected areas. Tanzania
is one of the top countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa with the largest extent of land resources allocated as reserves. However, as
a proportion of total land area, Tanzania
is surpassed by Zambia and Botswana
registering 36.6 percent and 31.7 percent
respectively on reserved land (FAOSTAT,
2013). See Table 3.12.
The Zambezi Basin has several
Trans Frontier Conservation Areas
(TFCAs) incorporating some of Africas
finest national parks and safari areas.
These include:
Kavango/Zambezi TFCA involving
Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia
and Zimbabwe;
Malawi/Zambia TFCA;
ZIMOZA TFCA covering areas in
Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia;
Selous/Nyasa TFCA covering parts
of southern Tanzania and northern
Mozambique;
Lower Zambezi Mana Pools between
Zambia and Zimbabwe; and,
the Liuwa Plain Kameia TFCA
which includes areas in Angola and
Zambia.
National Initiatives
National Land Policy and Law Reforms
A number of basin countries have developed or are developing national land

policies and laws that aim to address the
inequalities in land distribution and also
improve land administration systems.
Table 3.12
Protected Terrestrial Areas as % of Total Land Area
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Average
12.48
31.72
18.93
14.91
14.53
28.87
36.64
18.31
22.05
12.48
31.72
18.93
14.91
14.53
28.87
36.64
18.31
22.05
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.02
36.64
28.42
23.46
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.02
36.64
28.42
23.46
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.03
36.64
28.42
23.46
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.05
36.64
28.42
23.46
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.05
36.64
28.42
23.46
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.44
36.64
28.42
23.51
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
14.53
29.44
36.64
28.42
23.51
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
15.01
29.44
36.64
28.42
23.57
12.48
31.72
18.93
15.92
15.01
29.44
36.64
28.42
23.57
FAOSTAT 2013
Most reforms are towards improving

food security, regulating access to land,
addressing gender inequalities and improving transparency and accountability
in land transactions. These reforms are
at different stages in the Zambezi River
Basin countries. Most national land policy reforms undertaken in the last
decade recognise the legitimacy of customary land rights and provide for some
form of registration, and a role for local
and community-based institutions in
land management, alongside that of the
state. They also try to address the gender inequalities in access and control
over land and land-based resources.
Agriculture and Related National Policies
ANGOLA
Angola is endowed with vast reserves of
oil, diamond, iron ore, copper, gold and
other minerals. However, 60 percent of
its population lives in the rural area and
depends on agriculture for survival
(SADC 2012c) which means that attainment of food security and poverty reduction cannot be achieved if the
agricultural sector is ignored. Government is giving priority to development
of the agricultural sector and good
progress has been made. However, there
are still challenges such as lack of access
to credit and insecurity over land tenure.
The major policy document that
contains the objectives of the Ministry
of Agriculture is the 2009 Executive
Programme on the Agro-Sylvio and

Forestry-based Activities in Angola. Its
objective is to promote sustainable and
integrated socio-economic development
of the agricultural sector taking advantage of its potential for increased
production, productivity and competitiveness while at the same time creating
employment and income to ensure food
security. There are a number of programmes in support of this policy in
areas of food security, irrigation, and
emergency and disaster preparedness.
BOTSWANA
The Government of Botswana supports
diversification of the agricultural sector
and has put in place a number of supporting policies and programmes. All
agricultural programmes and projects are
aimed at achieving the objectives of the
1991 National Policy on Agricultural Development which was elaborated in the
later National Development Agricultural
Plan 9 that includes objectives on mainstreaming gender and youth issues into
agricultural programmes.
Other supporting policies include
the National Land Policy; Tribal Grazing Land Policy; Arable Land Development Programme; Integrated Support
Programme for Arable Agriculture Development; and the National Master
Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy
Development, which has a component
to promote irrigated crop production.
87
Other related policies include the

Revised National Policy for Rural Development; the National Strategy for
Poverty Reduction; and the revised National Food Strategy. These have objectives relevant to agriculture in general
and crop production in particular.
88
MALAWI
The agriculture sector in Malawi contributes significantly to national development in several ways as an
economic activity, source of livelihoods
and provider of environmental services.
The sector contributes about 36 percent
(value added) to the GDP, employs
about 85 percent of the work force, and
contributes about 70 percent of the
countrys foreign exchange earnings
through exports.
The agricultural sector is guided by
the Agricultural Sector Wide Approach
(ASWAp) which is a framework for investment in the sector. The ASWAp
identifies three focus areas, two key support services and two cross-cutting issues. The focus areas are:
Food Security and Risk Management;
Commercial Agriculture, Agro-processing and Market Development; and,
Sustainable Agricultural Land and
Water Management.
The two key support services are:
Technology Generation and Dissemination; and,
Institutional Strengthening and
Capacity Building.
The cross-cutting issues are:

HIV Prevention and AIDS
Impact Mitigation; and,
Gender Equity and Empowerment.
Other agricultural programmes being
implemented in the country include: the
Farm Input Subsidy Programme; Institutional Development Across Agrifood
Sector Programme; Improving Coordination of ASWAp in the Ministry of Agriculture (ICAM); and, the Green Belt
Initiative (GBI) that aims to increase area
under irrigation to one million hectares.
The land subsector is guided by the 2002
National Land Policy that aims at addressing the challenges in that sector but implementation is hampered by the lack of
a supporting legal framework.
MOZAMBIQUE
The key challenges in the agricultural
sector include:
Low productivity;
Limited access to improved seeds;
Limited access to fertilizers;
Limited access to credit and financial
services; and,
Poor input distribution network.
Within the present agricultural policy
framework the emphasis is on addressing
some of these bottlenecks and the strategies aim at improving production and
productivity, rehabilitation of service such
as roads and communication, rehabilitation of irrigation schemes, and providing
training to extension officers, among others. Policies, strategies and institutional
arrangements have been put in place to
address agricultural problems and support
services to promote fertilizer availability,
mechanization, research, extension and
trade-related issues.
NAMIBIA
The National Agricultural Policy of 1995
has provided guidance to agricultural development but suffered a number of setbacks including weak implementation
mainly due to the lack of appropriate
budgetary provisions for that purpose.
The third National Development Plan

(2007/2008-2011/201212) is a systematic
translation of Namibias Vision 2030 and
is aimed at accelerated economic growth
and deepening rural development. There
are a number of land-related laws in support of the land reform initiatives that aim
at broadening access to productive land.
These laws include the Agricultural (Commercial) Land Reform Act of 1996, the
National Land Policy of 1998, the Communal Land Reform Act No. 5 of 2002
and the National Land Policy of 1995.
TANZANIA
The Tanzania Vision 2025 aims at
achieving a high quality of livelihood for
its people. The national organizing
framework focusing on economic
growth and poverty reduction is the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty, and agriculture is firmly
anchored in this strategy.
The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy aims at achieving agricultural sustainable growth rate of 5
percent per annum through the transformation from subsistence to commercial agriculture. The current land policy
and strategies aim to:
Promote equitable distribution of
and access to land;
Ensure existing rights to land; and,
Improve land management.
ZAMBIA
Vision 2030 is Zambias general framework of all developmental planning in the
different sectors of the economy including agriculture. Specifically for agriculture
there are a number of policies, but inconsistencies in their implementation is the
major constraint. Examples include subsidy provision, poor marketing strategies,
poor irrigation and infrastructure, and low
financial support to key areas such as research and extension.
The Poverty Reduction Strategy focuses on the need to reduce poverty and
food insecurity. To go with this strategy
the Agricultural Commercialization Pro-
gramme was developed to promote targeted agricultural growth, but was not
fully implemented. The National Agricultural Policy provides guidelines for
the period 2004 to 2015 and emphases
liberalization, commercialization and
provision of effective services. Another
policy instrument is the Fifth National
Development Plan that clearly identifies
irrigation development, agricultural infrastructure and land development as
key areas for investment.
ZIMBABWE
The Zimbabwe agricultural sector went
through major changes following the
Fast Track Land Reform Programme of
2000 that sought to address the inequalities in land resources emanating from
the colonial era. The widely accepted
Land Review report of 2003 recognises
the need to enhance agricultural production in resettled areas and communal
areas by suggesting various strategies
that involve strengthening of institutions such as banks, state-owned enterprises, research centres and capacity
building at all levels. This involves irrigation, mechanisation and the appropriate technologies required to boost
production; and encouraging gender
equality in land ownership. Another key
driver to production is the pricing policy
and the need to create a robust market
that does not constrain investment. This
has seen several initiatives through the
national economic development blueprint for 2013-2018, the Zimbabwe
Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (ZIM ASSET).
89
Policy Options
90
Land and agriculture will continue to

form the basis for the social and economic development of countries within
the Zambezi River Basin. However, the
land and agriculture sectors face a number of challenges that threaten their
ability to sustainably contribute towards
economic growth, poverty reduction
and food security in the riparian countries as well as in the SADC region.
Based on some of the issues discussed
in this report, the following policy options have been advanced:
Basin-wide initiatives to strengthen
and transform agriculture through
implementation of regional initiatives
that promote sustainable production
and intensification of both livestock
and crops to reduce food insecurity
while at the same time diversifying
the economies away from agriculture
to services and manufacturing so as
to relieve pressure from the land resources.
Support innovative land-tenure reforms that improve land-tenure security and ownership among vulnerable
groups, particularly women who contribute significantly to agricultural
production in the riparian states.
Implement the various conventions,
protocols, declarations and guidelines
agreed upon at different levels with
the aim of improving land governance, gender equality and food security, while at the same time
providing strategies for addressing issues of biodiversity loss, climate
change, land degradation, desertification and mitigation of the effects is
of drought.
Despite the existence of huge irrigation potential in the Basin, crop production continues to rely on rain-fed
agriculture and is therefore vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. Countries in
the Basin should endeavour to increase areas under irrigation by pro-
moting irrigation infrastructure development and supporting research

and extension in irrigation agriculture.
Agriculture production continues to
be constrained by non-accessibility to
various factors which include production-enhancing improved technologies such as inputs because of
their scarcity and high pricing. Therefore, the riparian countries through
relevant regional economic blocks
should continue to explore ways of
increasing fertilizer production in the
SADC region with the aim of making it affordable to smallholder farmers and reduce barriers in improved
seed production.
Systems of agriculture that aim to
minimize soil disturbance and maximize soil cover have the potential to
improve the resilience of food production systems from the negative impacts
of climate change, however the adoption is still low in the Zambezi Basin.
Given the vulnerability of the SADC
region, the riparian countries should
continue to increase efforts in promoting conservation agriculture and other
climate-smart agricultural practices
through deliberate policies that support research and extension in conservation agriculture.
Policies and strategies for addressing
gender gaps exist at Continental,
SADC, COMESA, National and Basin
levels. Most constitutions enshrine
gender equity, yet gender disparities
continue unchanged. Therefore, nations and regional bodies should intensify implementation of measures to
bridge the gender gaps including affirmative actions in the achievement of
poverty eradication and sustainable development objectives;
The Zambezi Basin riparian states
should document and disseminate indigenous knowledge in agriculture
and land management that contributes to sustainable environmental
management.
Box 3.2
Case Study
LINKING AGRICULTURE AND LAND TO BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

IN THE ZAMBEZI VALLEY, ZIMBABWE
The Zambezi Valley area in Zimbabwe is located in the middle-Zambezi between Lake
Kariba and Cahora Bassa. The area is generally characterised by a dry tropical climate,
with low and very variable annual rainfall. Two seasons are clearly defined: a rainy season
from December to March and a long dry season from April to November.
Natural land cover throughout the Valley is typified by deciduous dry savannah, dominated by Mopane trees with the presence of a rich flora and great species diversity (Gaidet
and others 2003; Poilecot and Gaidet 2010). It is an area of global importance for the
emblematic mega-fauna of Africa with large portions of its ecosystem being set aside in
protected areas, which has been altered over the past 30 years by various agricultural activities and land policies (Baudron and others 2011; Coid and others 2003). Studies
throughout the 1980s and 1990s revealed that the Zambezi Valley hosts some of the densest populations of indigenous wildlife (Nemarundwe 2005).
More recent studies showed remarkable levels of species richness and large portions
of uninhabited areas within the Valley (Gaidet and others 2003). A huge factor for the
largely undisturbed landscape was the presence of the deadly tsetse fly which limited
human activity. Successful tsetse fly eradication efforts resulted in changes in human activities such as an increase in agricultural practices by the early 2000s. A study looking at
changes in two areas in the valley (Dande Communal Area, Mbire District) noted increases
in human population; increases in cattle population (and the expansion of associated
plough-based agriculture); and the expansion of cotton farming (Baudron and others
2011). Nemarundwe (2005) noted that following the eradication of the tsetse fly, cotton
became the main cash crop with agriculture remaining the major land-use in the district.
In some cases this expansion has increased grazing and water resources competition
between wildlife and livestock (Coid and others 2003). Water sources, and modify wildlife
migratory routes causing wildlife population to decline posing a threat to the overall health
of the local biodiversity. The harsh climatic conditions encouraged many people to concentrate agricultural activities near major rivers such as the Angwa River, further threatening the wildlife population (Baudron and others 2011). In some administrative wards
the drilling of boreholes has helped to improve water access and decrease land degradation
near floodplains and river banks.
Introducing farming methods that improve yield without increasing the land area will
be crucial to reducing habitat and biodiversity loss. In other parts of the Basin, conservation agriculture has been used to improve yields while using less fertilizer and less land
(SARDC and HBS 2010). This type of land intensification can be adapted to the local
conditions in the Zambezi Valley.
91
CHAPTER LINKAGES
OVERVIEW
Land is an essential asset to life in the Zambezi Basin. Agriculture is a land-use activity. Pressures on land-use are
increasing due to various factors, and there is less arable land available per capita. There is need for effective management of land and environmental resources to achieve sustainable development.
WATER RESOURCES
Land shortages result in wetland degradation as these are turned into cropland in an unsustainable manner. Agriculture, especially irrigation agriculture, takes a large share of the available water resources. The use of agro-chemicals contributes towards pollution of freshwater resources, affecting the health of ecosystems. This needs adequate
policy frameworks, stakeholder involvement and strategies to strengthen the role of women in access, management
and decision-making.
Agriculture expansion and land development targets forests causing deforestation. Habitat for wildlife is modified
causing loss of biodiversity. Inclusive policy frameworks are needed that incorporate these key issues of sustainability, and local communities should be encouraged to apply their knowledge systems that support sustainability.
Deforestation due to agricultural expansion reduces the Basins contribution towards reducing global warming
through carbon sequestration. Burning of forests contributes to atmospheric pollution.
92
ENERGY
Smallholder farmers in the Basin rely on biomass for tobacco curing and tea drying. This may cause deforestation
and air pollution. The production of charcoal as an energy source is widespread and having a serious impact on
land-use through removal of large tracts of forest cover.
Land provides resources for human activities, including shelter for settlements. In some areas of the Basin, arable
land is in high demand from local and foreign investors, as well as individuals and communities. In urban areas
land is in high demand, and therefore expensive.
TOURISM
Land supports a wide range of natural resources which are important components of the tourism sector in the
Basin. Clearing of land for agriculture and other developments may lead to degradation and loss of biodiversity.
While infrastructure development is necessary, it should be well-regulated.
Agriculture is one of the important industries in the basin contributing raw materials to other industries, and agroindustries should be encouraged to locate in the Basin for value addition. This must be well-regulated as land clearance for agricultural expansion can lead to soil degradation and environmental damage.
SCENARIOS
Agriculture will continue to be a core factor in developing the Basin economy and reducing poverty, and can be
expanded through value addition with appropriate regulation. All sectors require land for their activities and it is
essential that systems are put in place to protect the environment and biodiversity, reduce deforestation and increase
planting of indigenous species. Policies must address the gender gap in land management and incorporate indigenous knowledge systems as well as appropriate technology.
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Introduction
Biodiversity has been defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as
the variability among living organisms
from all sources, including terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems. This
includes diversity within and between
species. It exists at three main levels
the combination of species that make up
different ecosystems; the number of different species; and the different combinations of genes within species (Chenje
2000; UNEP 2007). All the three levels
help to sustain biological systems, as well
as to ensure their productivity.
Biodiversity drives the economy of
Zambezi River Basin through the economic resources and ecological services it
provides. Key issues in the Zambezi Basin
include the loss of biological diversity as
a result of habitat loss, proliferation of invasive alien species, uncontrolled veldt
fires and climate change, among others.
Given the economic and ecological services that the Basin derives from biodiversity, its maintenance, restoration and
enhancement is therefore not an end in
itself but a means to achieve the basins
socio-economic development.
The Zambezi Basin is rich in biological resources, some of which have global
significance. It has a large and diverse heritage of flora and fauna, including domesticated crops and animals (Table 4.1;
SADC 2006). They occur in the basins
varied environments that include arid and
semi-arid ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, and mountain ecosystems. Of the
82 sites globally chosen for their species
richness and endemism in sub-Saharan
Africa, 26 fall within the Southern African
Development Community (SADC).
More than 40 percent of the species
found in southern Africa are endemic
(Griffin and others 1999).
Table 4.1
Country
Species Diversity in the Zambezi Basin

Area
Mammals Birds
Fish
(000 sq km)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1 247
582
118
799
824
946
753
390
276
164
195
179
250
316
233
270
765
268
386
81
521 1 000
498
500
469
97
1119
250
605
156
532
132
Reptile Amphibians Flowering

plants
227
133
108
195
215
335
143
180
78
20
46
52
31
116
57
31
5 000
2 000
6 000
5 500
3 159
11 000
4 600
6 000
SADC and SARDC, Southern Africa EnvironmentOutlook,2008; SADC Regional Biodiversity Strategy, 2006
The Value of Biodiversity

The contribution of forests to the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of riparian states is underestimated because
the captured figures consist of income
receipts from exotic and commercial indigenous timber, thus misrepresenting
the contribution of forests as the bulk
of their products and services are not
captured in national accounts. Studies
have estimated that forest-based products such as wild foods, wood, medicinal
plants, grass, reeds, honey and leaves
contribute over 35 percent of the average rural incomes in some parts of Zimbabwe and that 20 percent of the daily
needs of some rural communities come
from forests (SADC/SARDC and others 2008).
The key forest products and services
are industrial timber and timber products, fuel wood, Non Timber Forest
Products (NTFP) such as fruit and medicinal plants, wildlife habitats, and environmental services. The latter include
the provision of clean water, climate
regulation, soil and biodiversity conservation, watershed protection, climate
stabilization through carbon sequestration, and nutrient recycling. Forests are
also culturally important as sacred burial
95
sites. They are therefore an important

component of the basins stock of economic and social assets.
With respect to carbon sequestration,
very little is known about the underground carbon stocks associated with
dry Miombo woodlands. However, they
have the least above-ground living biomass across a number of African regions
(Table 4.2). This is due to the inherently
slow growth rate and high level of utilization of their tree species. Because of
the low above-ground carbon stocks, little attention has been paid to these
woodlands compared to rainforests (Zahabu and others 2007). However, new
opportunities for compensating reduced
emissions through reversing deforestation now exist under Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+) hence the need
for basin states to take advantage of the
global focus on REDD+ (Marunda and
others 2010).
96
Large wild mammals are a unique economic resource in the sense that they
make better use of vegetation compared
to livestock and have many marketable
uses in addition to meat production
(SADC/SARDC and others 2008). They
are used for consumptive and non-consumptive tourism purposes. The major
activities include game and trophy hunting, and game viewing. In addition, local
communities hunt wildlife mainly for subsistence requirements.
The bulk of the population of the
Zambezi Basin depends on agriculture
for food, income and employment, and
agricultural output strongly influences
the basins economic growth (Hirji and
others 2002). Agro-biodiversity (in
terms of the variety in crops and livestock) provides consumptive and productive benefits to the economies of
Basin states. The former involve the direct use of biodiversity products that are
harvested and consumed directly such
as grain and meat. The latter encompasses products that are raw materials
for agro-based industries (SADC 2006).
Throughout centuries, people of the
Zambezi Basin have depended on the
basins rich biodiversity for survival. They
have developed strategies to protect and
conserve this natural heritage for the benefit of their own and future generations.
For example, some cultures often designated areas rich in biodiversity as sacred
or protected sites. However, many of
these conservation-sensitive traditional
beliefs have broken down due to population pressure and changes in the
socio-economic environment, including
urbanization (SADC 2006).
Table 4.2 Trends in Carbon Stocks in Forest Biomass

Sub-region
Eastern and Southern Africa

Northern Africa
Western and Central Africa
Total Africa
FAO, State of the Worlds Forests, 2005
Carbon in living biomass

(Giga tonnes)
1990
2000
2005
15.9
3.8
46.0
65.7
14.8
3.5
43.9
62.2
14.4
3.4
43.1
60.9
Giga tonne=1 billion tonnes
Drivers of Biodiversity and Forest Loss

Major drivers of biodiversity and forestry
loss in the Zambezi Basin are population
growth and poverty, agricultural expansion, overreliance on wood energy, uncontrolled veldt fires, socio-economic
development, and emerging issues such as
climate change and invasive alien species.
Population Growth and Poverty
Riparian states of the Zambezi Basin

are at different stages of economic development. The regions economic performance has remained fragile as
countries continue to be exposed to natural disasters and adverse external
shocks. This is partly because most of
the economies depend on primary sectors of production, underpinning the
overriding importance of biological resources for their socio-economic development. The basins human population
is estimated at over 40 million people
and is growing at an average rate of 2.9
percent per year. The population is expected to increase to 51 million by 2025
and urbanization is also expected to
grow (SARDC and HBS 2010).
Almost all Basin states face economic challenges such as external debt,
terms of trade and market access, and
dependence on single commodities
which combine to create an adverse
macroeconomic climate. Some socioeconomic statistics on the Basin are
shown in Table 4.3.
The majority of people in the Basin
live in rural areas and depend on unreliable rain-fed agriculture, livestock rearing,
and the exploitation of natural resources
for survival. However, increasing urbanization is affecting consumption patterns and increasing the demand for
commercial services. All these factors
contribute to land degradation, biodiversity loss and poverty. In Botswana,
Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, rural
communities supplement their incomes
through Community Based Natural Resources Management (CBNRM) initiatives based on wildlife, non-timber forest
products and ecotourism. However, the
economic returns from such initiatives are
highly variable due to limited product
range and institutional and policy constraints (SADC 2006).
Agricultural Expansion
The economies of Basin states are agrobased. The countries have many smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed
Table 4.3
Some Socio-Economic Statistics on Riparian States
State
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
GDP
($ billions)
GDP per
capita ($)
9.76
6.50
2.28
4.09
2.82
9.74
4.34
2.20
696.9
2 796.0
198.0
226.0
1 667.0
266.0
392.0
1 891.0
Population
(millions)
14.0
1.7
11.5
18.1
1.8
33.6
10.7
11.6
Urbanization
(%)
42.4
46.4
15.0
23.0
27.0
30.0
35.0
33.6
SADC, Regional Biodiversity Strategy, 2006
agriculture, use very few inputs and realize very low crop yields. To achieve
food self-sufficiency and become food
secure, the farmers resort to the cultivation of marginal land that is less productive. Agricultural expansion results in
deforestation, land degradation and biodiversity loss (SADC 2006).
Table 4.4 shows the link between
agricultural expansion and deforestation
in five riparian states. Malawi and Zimbabwe experienced large increases in
land allocated to agriculture and corresponding reductions in the forest area
between 1990 and 2005. However, the
correlation between agricultural expansion and deforestation was weaker in
Mozambique and Tanzania.
Over-reliance on Wood Energy
Biomass, especially firewood, is the
main energy source for more than 80
percent of the population of riparian
states. The use of charcoal is also widespread, especially in urban areas in
Table 4.4
Relationship between Agricultural

Expansion and Deforestation
Country
Percentage change: 1990 to 2005

Agricultural
land area
Malawi
Mozambique
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Dewees and others, 2011
19.8
2.2
2.2
9.8
20.7
Forest
land area
-12.7
-7.6
-14.6
-4.7
-22.1
97
Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and

Zambia. Access to modern energy
sources is limited for both rural and
urban households. For example, access
to grid electricity averages only 18.5 percent. It is eightpercent in Malawi and 40
percent in Zimbabwe (GoM, 2009;
GoZ, 2009). Tobacco is a major cash
crop for smallholder farmers in Malawi
and Zimbabwe, and this requires significant quantities of wood for curing. Another energy related cause of
deforestation is fish drying along river
banks and lakesides in Malawi, Zambia
and Zimbabwe. Communities in these
areas also cut trees for the construction
of canoes, and temporary fishing camps
during the rainy season.
Table 4.5 gives examples of wood
energy needs for firewood, charcoal
production, tobacco curing and brick
firing, which are among the major
causes of deforestation in the Basin.
98
Table 4.5
Wood Energy Requirements for Selected

Energy Uses in Basin States
Wood energy use
Wood requirements (tons)
Annual household firewood

consumption in Zimbabwe
4.2
Wood to produce 1 ton of charcoal
10.0
Wood to cure 1 ton of tobacco

(depending on barn design)
6.0
Wood to fire sufficient bricks to build

a standard three-room house
2.0
SAFIRE, 2013; Grundy and others, 1993
Table 4.6
Incidents and Impact of Uncontrolled Veldt Fires

in Zimbabwe
Year
Fire
incidents
2009
2010
2011
2012
7 409
9 361
6 780
1 861
Area
affected (ha)
950 905
1 152 413
713 770
1 320 325
% of country
affected
Lives lost
Value of
infrastructure
damaged ($)*
2.4
3.0
2.0
3.4
10
25
5
16
1 984 560
974 376
227 214
479 723
*Includes forest plantations, livestock, farm produce, buildings, electricity poles, vehicles and
farm equipment
Environmental Management Agency reports 2009-2012
Uncontrolled Wildfires
People have used fire as a land management tool and for agricultural purposes
for thousands of years. However, uncontrolled wildfires have become a
major threat to the Zambezi Basins
forests and biodiversity, adversely affecting the bio-physical, social and economic
environment due to their trail of destruction that impacts on all sectors of
the economy (Nyamadzawo and others
2013). Table 4.6 shows incidents and impact of uncontrolled fires in Zimbabwe.
Economic Development
Large-scale infrastructural development
and the expansion of settlements into
woodland and forest areas are part of
national development. However they
contribute to deforestation and land
degradation. Particular forms of habitat
destruction and fragmentation include
infrastructure such roads, buildings, settlements and development corridors,
dams and mines that are being established in the Basin.
Fragmented habitats caused by infrastructure development and high human
population densities increase contact between people and wildlife. This fuels
human and wildlife conflict. Free-flowing rivers are threatened by the prospect
of damming to provide drinking water,
irrigation water and power generation.
Industrial expansion increases water
pollution leading to the poisoning of
aquatic life and the proliferation of invasive alien species such as water hyacinth. A new sector of economic
development that has impacted upon
the basins biodiversity during the last
decade is the cultivation of bio-fuel
feedstocks.
Emerging Drivers
Emerging drivers of the loss of biodiversity and forestry include climate
change, bio-fuel feedstocks, and proliferation of invasive alien species. These
are discussed in this section.
Climate Change
Climate change refers to a shift in climate
that takes place as a result of human activities (Wigley 1999). The activities result
in an increase in greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide (IPCC 2007a). Climate change
models indicate that there will be a 1.5o C
to 2.5o C temperature increase across the
Zambezi River Basin within the coming
40 years (WWF 2012). However, rainfall
predictions across the Basin vary. Four
main regions with different rainfall predictions are considered relevant for the
Basin, as follows:
The south region (southern Zambia,
Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe and
Mozambique) is expected to receive
less rainfall and a condensed summer rainfall season (with little
change in total summer rainfall).
Some projections suggest decreased
mean annual rainfall of up to 10 percent by the end of the 21st century.
The northeastern part of the Basin
(eastern Zambia including part of
Kafue and Luangwa, and central and
north Malawi) will experience an increase in mean annual rainfall as a result of a wetting trend emanating
from Tanzania. Besides the increase
in annual rainfall that could reach as
high as10 percent, the intensity of
rainfall events is projected to increase,
with longer dry spell duration intraseasonality. Shifting onset of the rains
and marked rainfall variability in the
early rainy season is anticipated.
The northwest (western Zambia,
Angola Upper Catchment and
Kafue) will experience opposing
wetting and drying instances based
on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
The coastal portion of the Basin
(southern Malawi and coastal
Mozambique including the Lower
Shire and the Delta) will experience
opposing wetting and drying instances and increased cyclonic activity of higher intensity and possibly
higher frequency.
Climate change is becoming a

global challenge to biological diversity
and human wellbeing. Projections show
that an increase in average global temperature of only 1.5o C to 2.5o C will endanger the existence of up to 30 percent
of all animal and plant species. Rising
temperatures will result in extreme
weather events whose effects are
droughts and frequent floods, crop failures, food insecurity, other natural catastrophes, and water scarcity. In southern
Africa, temperatures are expected to increase by 1.5o C between 1990 and 2050
(Hulme 1996). Such warming will result
in lower rainfall and a change in vegetation distribution across the region as follows (Prentice and others 1992):
Under the dry (20 percent less
moisture) scenario, there could be a
10 percent increase in sub-humid
forests derived from moist evergreen forests;
A 30 percent increase in Acacia
semi-arid bushland and wooded
grasslands at the expense of warm
dry forests; and,
A significant change in the distribution of warm dry woodland types
and those in the semi-arid region.
Most developing countries, including those in the Zambezi Basin, are
very low emitters of greenhouse gases,
but are expected suffer the most from
climate change due to low adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007b). Vulnerability to
climate change varies greatly among riparian states, sectors and social groups.
99
For example, in the water sector, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania

and Zambia are not as vulnerable to
water scarcity as Botswana, Namibia
and Zimbabwe (SARDC and HBS
2010). The most vulnerable people are
often those who are unable to diversify
to other means of survival hence they
resort to the overexploitation of natural resources for survival.
Forests play an important role in reducing global warming through carbon
sequestration as sinks for carbon
dioxide. Thus, the destruction of tropical
forests accounts for 20 percent of global
carbon emissions. This underscores the
need to maintain as much forest cover as
possible andidentify the economic activities that compete with forestry. Unfortu-
100
Box 4.1
KEY ISSUES ON REDD+ IN AFRICA
Key policy and related decisions on Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD+) in Africa will invariably focus on:
How to reduce or avoid deforestation and
forest degradation;
Level of deforestation and degradation permissible for socio-economic development;
How to handle the opportunity costs of forest conservation, that is, the compatibility of
forest conservation and livelihoods of communities that depend on the same resources,
as well as income that could accrue to other
stakeholders from the same resources;
Introduction of sustainable forest management to the majority of African forests, its
improvement where it is nascent, and compatibility with the many expectations on forest resources by various stakeholders; and,
How to enhance forest carbon sinks.
Many of the components of REDD+ are not
new to the forest sector in Africa. Therefore, as a point
of departure it is first necessary to look at policies and
experiences of activities and programmes that deal
with deforestation and forest degradation, forest conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of carbon stocks in the forest sector.
Kowero and others 2011
nately, there have been very limited incentives for sustainable forest management
at both local and national levels in the
Zambezi Basin largely because most forest products have low economic value.
Consequently, the emergence of forest
carbon trading through the Reduced
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+) mechanism is a
welcome incentive for good forestry
stewardship and governance.
REDD+ creates economic value
for carbon locked up in standing forests.
Its key dimensions include forest conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of forest
carbon stocks (Kowero and others
2011). Once operational, REDD+ will
be an important incentive for rural communities, governments and other forest
land owners to practice good natural resource stewardship and to reverse some
of the economic drivers of deforestation. Box 4.1 gives some policy and related issues on REDD+ in Africa.
Cultivation of Bio-Fuel Feedstock
Some industrialized countries have
committed to measurable levels of
bio-fuel use in response to adverse impacts of greenhouse gas emissions
from fossil fuels on ecosystem health
and human wellbeing. For example,
the European Union has binding targets for member states to ensure that
10 percent of all road transport fuel
comes from renewable energy by 2020
(Lamers and others 2011). This has
opened avenues for bio-fuel investments in developing countries with
suitable land and water resources for
feedstock production.
Such investments offer opportunities to reduce global carbon emissions
and allow participating countries, including those in the Zambezi Basin, to benefit from the resultant financial inflows.
In addition, this can reduce the Basins
dependence on imported petroleum
products, stabilise fuel prices, advance
fuel security, promote rural development and investment, reduce poverty,
and create employment (Chundama

2008; Nhantumbo, 2008; Sibanda 2008;
Shumba and others 2009). The bulk of
current and planned investments in the
Basin are in bio-ethanol and bio-diesel
production for the transport sector.
The former is made from vegetable materials such as maize, sweet sorghum,
sugarcane and cassava; and the latter
from oilseed crops such as soya beans,
groundnuts, sunflower and jatropha.
A major argument against bio-fuels is
that they require large tracts of land for
feedstock production hence they are perceived as an emerging driver of habitat alteration, biodiversity loss, food insecurity
and community displacement and disenfranchisement. Consequently, such investments might not yield desired results if
not properly guided and responsibly implemented through formulation and enforcement of appropriate policies.
This is vindicated by FAO which
states that there is as yet no country in
the world where the bio-fuels industry
has grown to commercial scale without
a clear policy or legislation in place to
support the business (FAO 2008). Several Basin states have committed considerable areas of land to bio-fuel
feedstock production (Table 4.7). However, most of them have not yet put in
place the enabling bio-fuel policies and
strategies (Shumba and others 2013).
Proliferation of Invasive Alien
Species
Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are those introduced deliberately or unintentionally
outside their natural habitats where they
have the ability to establish themselves, invade, out-compete natives and take over
the new environments (SADC, IUCN,
SARDC 2000). Such species are found in
all categories of organisms and all types
of ecosystems and some of them have
significant environmental and economic
impacts. The problem and impact of IAS
is likely to increase as more plants move
across borders and destabilize natural vegetation (Hamilton and Hamilton 2006),
especially in areas where phytosanitary
Table 4.7
Involvement of some Zambezi Basin States in

Bio-Fuel Production
Country
Existing/Ongoing projects
Planned projects
Botswana
A feasibility study on bio-fuel

production and use was
commissioned in 2007. The study
identified jatropha and sweet
sorghum as suitable feedstocks.
There are plans to

establish 100,000ha of
jatropha and sweet
sorghum feedstock
through outgrower
schemes in the central
district of the country.
Malawi
Malawi has been involved in

sugarcane cultivation for sugar and
ethanol production for a long time
through large-scale plantations and
smallholder outgrower schemes. The
country started to produce bioethanol commercially from molasses
for blending with petrol in the 1970s.
Energen Resources Inc

plans to establish
10,000 ha of jatropha
through large
plantations and
outgrower schemes.
Toleza Farm Ltd has planted 250

ha of jatropha for bio-diesel
production in Balaka district.
Mozambique
Zambia
Energen Resources Inc

Mozambique has large sugarcane
was allocated 60,000
plantations for sugar production.
The resultant molasses is exported. ha of land for jatropha
cultivation.
Renewable Alternative Energies Ltd
is producing biodiesel from coconut The ESV Group plans to
and has a plant capacity of 40,000 establish the largest
single plantation of
litres per annum.
jatropha in Africa in
Some largescale plantations of
Inhambane province.
jatropha have been established.
Sun Bio-fuels
purchased five former
tobacco farms for
jatropha production in
Manica province.
A few sugar companies are involved
in sugarcane production through
largescale plantations and
outgrowers. The molasses is used
as livestock feed.
D1 Oils-UK plans to
establish 189,000 ha
of jatropha through
outgrowers.
Conservation Agriculture project is

promoting the production of
jatropha as hedges for biodiesel
production by 2,500 farmers.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe has a well-established

sugar industry supported by large
estates and smallholder outgrowers.
The country started to commercially
produce bio-ethanol for blending
with petrol in the 1960s.
ZBE, a private
company, plans to
develop and plant
100,000 ha of
sugarcane for sugar
and bio-ethanol
production in Masvingo
Finealt Biodiesel and NOCZIM (both province.
government companies) have been
promoting jatropha cultivation
throughout the country under the
outgrower arrangement.
There is established processing
capacity of 10,000 and 60,000
litres per day at the Mutoko and Mt
Hampden Biodiesel plants
respectively.
Jumbe and others 2007; Chundama, 2008; Nhantumbo. 2008; Sibanda 2008; Ramaano 2009;
Mughogho and others 2009; Shumba and others 2009
101
102
regulations are lax. In its compilation of

the Red Data List of threatened species,
IUCN cited alien species as directly affecting 15 percent of all threatened
plants (Calton 1998). They disturb nutrient recycling, pollination and the regeneration of soils and energy, among
other things; and threaten the integrity
of natural systems. For example, the
snapdragon tree (Gmeliaaborea) common
in Malawi makes the soil too acidic for
the growth of many other plants
(SADC, IUCN, SARDC 2000).
Aquatic weeds, mostly free-floating
species such as the water hyacinth (Eichhorniacrassipes) and water lettuce (Pistiastratiotes) are among the dominant IAS in
the Zambezi Basin (Hirji and others
2002). The former has invaded water
bodies with adverse effects on ecosystem health, and threatens the integrity
of ecosystems.
The invasion of some of the regions
water bodies by the water hyacinth has
modified fish habitats, as the weed
changes and degrades aquatic water systems, outgrows local water plants and
takes over. When massive quantities of
the plant die, they sink to the bottom and
their decomposition deoxygenates the
water, resulting in the death of fish. Their
debris also affects drainage systems and
watercourses. The weeds dominant cover
absorbs sunlight, thereby seriously affecting the biodiversity of fauna and flora beneath the water level. The water hyacinth
is a major problem in Malawi, Tanzania,
Zambia and Zimbabwe (SADC 2006).
The Lantana (Lantana Camara) was

first introduced as an ornamental plant
and is found throughout Africa. The allelopathic capacity of the plant prevents
other plants from growing near or under
it forming dense impenetrable stands
which impede foraging of animals and are
not suitable for breeding. Lantana continues to invade more land affecting agriculturally productive areas as well as rural
and urban settlements. One study noted
that Lantana poisoned ostriches at a farm
on the outskirts of Harare, ingestion of
sufficient amounts causes photosensitization and liver damage. It severely affects
the facial and nasal areas of the animals
skin leaving these areas inflamed and susceptible to secondary bacterial infections.
Although the plant negatively affects livestock and pastoral communities, the plant is widely used as a herbal
medicine in East Africa. Some communities use lantana as an alternative for
firewood and mulch. It has also been
used as a source of microbicides, fungicides, nematicides and insecticides. Extracted Lantana oil is used as an
ointment for the treatment of skin
itches and an antiseptic for external
wounds (UNEP 2013; UNEP 2006;
SADC, IUCN, SARDC 2000).
Status of Biodiversity and Forests

Forest Biodiversity
The SADC Technical Committee on
Forests and Woodlands defines forests as
having a tree canopy cover of above 80
percent while woodlands have a canopy
cover of between 10 and 80 percent
(SADC/SARDC and others 2008). The
Zambezi Basin has diverse forest ecosystems dominated by undifferentiated
Miombo and Mopane woodlands and
semi-arid shrubland (White 1983). These
ecosystems are discussed in this section.
Undifferentiated woodlands consist of
teak (Baikiaeaplurijuga) and acacia.
Other associated commercial timber

species Pterocarpusangolensis and Guibour-
tiacoleosperma. Baikiaeawoodland areas are

found on Kalahari sands in parts of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and
Zimbabwe. The woodland has a long
history of management for commercial
timber exploitation, wildlife utilization,
cattle grazing and water catchment.
Miombo woodlands are the most extensive
forest type in the Basin. Dominant tree
species are Brachystegiaspiciformis, Julbernardiaglobiflora and Isoberlinia found in areas

with over 700mm of annual rainfall and
on nutrient-poor soils.
The dry Miombo is found in areas
where rainfall is less than 1000mm per
annum and tree canopy is less than 15
metres high. The dominant species are
Brachystegiaspiciformis, B. boehmii, JulbernarTable 4.8
diaglobiflora, Parinaricuterfolia and Uapacakirkiana.

The wet Miombo occurs in areas of
more than 1000 mm per year and tree
canopy exceeds 15 m in height. It is found
in parts of Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique,
Tanzania and Zambia. The dominant
species are B. floribunda, B. longiflora, J.
paniculata and Isoberlinia.
Miombo woodlands hold very little
merchantable timber but have a wide
range of non-timber forest products
that include grass, caterpillars and medicinal plants. A significant proportion
of the woodland has been converted
into intensive and extensive agricultural
areas hence it is difficult to locate pristine woodlands.
Some Uses of Plant Species from Mopane Woodland

103
Common name
Local use
Sub. Camphlacantha
White thorn
Treating snakebite and gonorrhea
Adansoniadigitata
Baobab
Edible fruit
Botanical name
Acaciapolyacantha
Anthericumpterocaulon
Azanzagarckeana
Leaves eaten as vegetables

African chewing gum, snot apple
Cissusintegrifolia
Edible fruit
Boiled leaves eaten as vegetables
Colophospermummopame
Mopane
Dalbergiamelanoxylon
African blackwood
House, bridge and tobacco barn construction, wood carvings,

pestles and mortars, firewood, charcoal
Powder from leaves is a cure for sores and wounds
Leaves are fed to livestock
House construction and wood carvings
Dichrostachyscinerea
Sickle bush
Antidote to scorpion bite and snakebite
Sub. Africana
Smooth creeping milkweed
Fishing by poison, especially in stagnant water
Savannah dwaba-berry
Stem used for weaving food stores
Friesodielsiaabovata
Guinea grass
Fruit is edible by humans and snakes

Fed to livestock
Panicum maximum
Common rye
Grass commonly used as thatch for houses, stables
Setariapalustris
African star chestnut
Sterculia Africana
Tamarindusindica
Filtrate of burnt fruit used as potash for cooking

Vegetables
Seeds are roasted, pounded to powder and added to
vegetables as substitute for groundnuts
Bark is stripped for string fibre
Oil is extracted from roasted seeds
Tamarind
Edible fruit, wine production

Fruit abundance is a drought indicator
SADC, IUCN, SARDC. Biodiversity of Forests and Woodlands in Southern Africa 2000
Mopane woodland is mostly confined to

lower lying areas with clay and nutrient
rich soils. Mopane is found in parts of
Angola, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia,

Malawi and Mozambique. Rainfall in
these areas ranges from 400 mm to 700
mm per annum. The dominant tree is
Colophospermummopane. The woodland assumes economic importance, especially
as a source of browse for both domestic
and wild animals. In addition, the trees
coppicing abilities render the woodland
economically important for subsistence
wood fuel, construction poles and
mopane worms (caterpillars).
Semi-arid shrubland is found in the low
rainfall areas. Due to water stress, it has
a sparce tree canopy of 5-8 metres.

Characteristic species of the wooded
grassland include various Acacia (eg Acaciaerioloba and A. tortilis), Terminaliasericea
104
Map 4.1
Eco-regions of the Zambezi Basin
and Combretumcollinum and Ziziphusmucronata. The shrubland is suitable for extensive livestock rearing and wildlife.
Forest cover information varies with
source both within the riparian states and
at regional level. Table 4.9 gives countrylevel forest cover statistics for the Basin,
from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) whose FAOSTAT is one of
the most accurate sources of such information as it usually works closely with national agencies to acquire local data. The
table shows that forests cover about 36
percent of the total land area of the
Basin, ranging from 9.3 percent in
Namibia to 56.2 percent in Zambia. Some
99.9 percent of the cover consists of natural forests and the remainder exotic plantations. The largest exotic timber
plantation area is in Zimbabwe, followed
by Angola, Malawi and Tanzania. Natural
forests are being lost at rates ranging from
Table 4.9
Country
Forest Cover Information for Basin States

Total land area
(000 ha)
% forest cover
Area under
exotic plantations in
2009 (000 ha)
% change
in annual forest
cover
124 700
58 200
11 800
79 900
82 400
94 500
75 300
39 000
565 800
56.0
20.2
29.6
31.7?
9.3
37.4
56.2
45.3
35.7
140.0
1.0
93.0
50.0
0.4
81.0
75.0
141.0
581.4
-0.2
-0.9
-2.2
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
-2.1
-1.4
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
FAO 2005; FAO 2006; FAO 2007
0.2 percent per year in Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania to 2.2 percent per
year in Malawi. Such losses reduce ecosystem goods and services and translate into
missed economic opportunities for both
present and future generations.
At the species level, there has been
a marked decrease in the abundance of
certain plants due to various human-induced pressures. For example, the overreliance on traditional medicinal plants
for primary health care by the majority
of the Basins inhabitants has contributed to the overexploitation of
species such as Walburgiasalutaris in Zimbabwe and Albiziabrevifolia in Namibia.
W. salutaris is considered endangered
under the IUCN Red Data List (Hilton
and others 1998).
The commercialization of crafts
such baskets and wood curios has led to
the decline in tree species such as
Berchemiadiscolor, which is used as a palm
leaf dye in Botswana and Namibia.
There has also been overharvesting of
Afzeliaquanzensis and Pterocarpusangolensis
in a number of countries in response to
the flourishing woodcraft industry
(Cunningham and others 2005).
The overexploitation of plant resources is a growing threat to biodiversity
in the dry forest and woodland countries
of sub-Saharan Africa. For example, of
the 13 tree species on the Convention on
International Trade in Endangered
Species (CITES) list, about 90 percent of
the threat comes from overexploitation
and 10 percent from habitat loss (IUCN

2009).
Table 4.10 shows changes that took
place on selected land-cover types of the
Basin between 1990 and 2006. The greatest changes occurred to primary woodlands and wet grasslands that were
reduced by 9.2 percent and 7.5 percent respectively. The greatest expansion was in
rain-fed agriculture, mixed woodlands and
settlement areas. The loss of vegetation
cover contributes to biodiversity loss, increased runoff, soil erosion, decreased
base flow and increased siltation of
water bodies, and reduced tourism opportunities.
Forest tenure systems impact on access, use patterns and ecological sustainability of forests and woodlands
throughout the region (SADC/SARDC
and others 2008). The major forest
tenure systems found in the region are
state, private and communal forests.
Total Number of Endemic
Table 4.10
Plant Species in Basin Countries
Country
Endemic
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
UNEP, Africa Environment Outlook 2, 2006
1260
17
49
219
687
1122
211
95
105
Table 4.11
Land Use Change within the Zambezi Basin
Land cover type
Primary woodland
Mixed woodland
Built up area
Rain-fed agriculture
Irrigated fields
Wet grasslands
Open grasslands
Deep water bodies
Rivers
% change
1990-2000
% change
2000-2006
-6.5
+5.9
+5.7
+6.2
+3.4
-6.1
-4.2
-2.0
-1.3
-2.7
+2.5
+2.3
+3.4
+0.9
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.1
WWF Southern Africa Regional Programme Office, 2007
106
However, the southern African region is

characterised by a variety of land property rights and differential access to resources such as finance, technologies
and administration of the land creating
disproportionate use of forest resources
(SADC, IUCN, SARDC 2000).
The highest rates of deforestation
tend to be found in communal forest
tenure systems although this can be attributed to high population densities in
these areas as a result of colonial policies that independence governments inherited (SADC/SARDC and others
2008). The colonial legacy that created
privately owned forests resulted in forest
policies that focused more on plantations in order to meet the demands of
the different specialised markets.
A number of Basin states such as
Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania
and Mozambique established exotic timLoss of Forest in Mwekera Forest Reserve, Zambia
ber plantations to reduce pressure on indigenous/natural forests for various

products and services. However, because
of their fast growth rates, exotic timber
species such as eucalyptus, pines and
wattle take up more water than indigenous tree species. These forests caused
the erosion of species diversity as indigenous trees were substituted with a
monoculture of exotic tree species. This
can disrupt microclimates and hydrological cycles of affected areas as well as
downstream. Furthermore, some of the
exotic timber species have become invasive and are adversely impacting on indigenous vegetation and other
biodiversity in ways that are only starting
to become clear. For example, the introduced trees on private and state plantations in the Nyanga mountains in
Zimbabwe have invaded indigenous
grasslands and even reduced the biodiversity of the surrounding forest reserves. Such impacts are likely to increase
in severity in coming years due to climate
change (SADC, IUCN, SARDC 2000;
Masters and others 2004).
Wildlife Biodiversity
The Zambezi Basin is rich in wildlife,
fish, plants and insects found in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems.
Species such as Lake Malawis cichlids
and the Mulanje cedar are endemic to
the Basin. The concentration of wild
mammals in the Basin is spectacular,
with some 200 mammal species
Box 4.2
DIFFERENT FOREST TENURE SYSTEMS
State Forests
These are reserved areas, including gazetted forest reserves, game reserves and national
parks, managed by governments for environmental protection, conservation of biodiversity, water catchment functions, wildlife reservoirs, commercial exploitation of natural
timber, and for aesthetic value.
Communal Forests
Communal forest areas provide open access to communities that reside in them. The
communities usually manage the areas through communal user rights and traditional rules.
The essential features of communal property regimes are common interests, common
cultural norms, indigenous authority systems and some interaction among community
members. In many communities, leaders such as the chiefs and kraal heads can allocate
user rights on portions of lands although being guided by the traditional rules. Once these
rules are established access to forests and forest-use practices are determined. These rules
determine which type of trees can be cut, methods of harvesting fruits and tree by-products and access to sacred groves, wetlands or mountains. Women in the local community
are a critical element in the management and use of communal forests and are a reservoir
of knowledge about the surrounding forests.
Private Forests
Private forests occur in areas with freehold tenure systems that are characterised by individual land ownership. The registered landowner has exclusive property rights and full
control and responsibility over the land and everything attached to it except to the extent
that statutory provisions may limit ownership and exclusive control over the land and
some natural resources. In most Basin countries, the state is the owner of all land and
leases out land to private owners. This was exemplified when some private forests were
targeted for land redistribution programmes in Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe,
most recently during the decade post-2000.
SADC, IUCN, SARDC. Biodiversity of Indigenous Forests and Woodlands in Southern Africa, 2000; SADC/SARDC and others, Southern
Africa Environment Outlook, 2008
(SADC/SARDC Chenje 2000). Some

of these species such as the Colobus
monkey, Samango monkey and Blue
duiker are restricted to moist forests in
the eastern parts of the Basin. The
Black lechwe is endemic to the Lake
Bangweulu in northern Zambia.
The diverse and unique collection of
the basins eco-regions and landscapes
makes it an important area for the global
conservation of mammals and carnivores
(Purchase and others 2007). Compared to
East Africa there is a preponderance of
browsers rather than grazers as the Basin
is mostly woody. Large herbivores such as
buffalo, kudu, zebra and antelopes are
present in large numbers, and between
200,000 and 250,000 elephants are supported throughout southern Africa

(SADC/SARDC and others 2008). The
Zambezi Basin also has important carnivore species such as the African wild dog,
Cheetah, Lion, Leopard, Spotted hyena
and many other smaller carnivores.
Bird species in the Basin are well
recorded. Of the 700 known species
of birds, 15-20 are endemic to the
Basin including the Black-cheeked
lovebird and the Slaty egret. A good
number of mammal and bird species
are confined to montane areas or are
inextricably connected to wetlands indicating the ecological importance of
such eco-regions.
107
More than 500 endemic species of

fish (mostly cichlids) have been
recorded in Lake Malawi/Niassa/
Nyasa. Forty-two percent of those are
found only in the Upper Zambezi
while 36 percent are found only in the
Middle to Lower Zambezi, and the rest
can be found throughout. The distribution of fish species has been altered
by the construction of dams including
the Kariba and Cahora Bassa reservoirs. Fish that normally inhabit the
slower flowing water found in the
upper portions of the Basin are now
resident in the Kariba and Cahora
Bassa lakes (Timberlake 1998).
Throughout southern Africa and especially in the Basin, fish are used for
subsistence and commercial purposes
and contribute significantly to the
socio-economic development of the
region (SADC 2006).
Knowledge of reptiles and amphibians in the Zambezi River Basin is
comparatively good, and earlier studies
have recorded 200 species of reptiles
and 90 species of amphibians
(SADC/SARDC Chenje 2000).
Species include the Nile Crocodile,
108
Table 4.12
Country
Angola
Botswana
Mozambique
Tanzania
Zambia
Endemic Mammals and Birds in

Basin Countries
Mammals
Birds
7
0
2
15
3
12
1
0
24
2
UNEP, Africa Environment Outlook 2, 2006
which is the largest reptile found in numerous in low-altitude perennial rivers

and forms the basis of a commercial
industry (Timberlake and Chidumayo
2011). Recent studies have shown endemism in the Barotseland region (five
endemic reptiles and two endemic
frogs) and high levels of diversity in
Hwange National Park with 81 species
of reptile and 25 amphibian species
(Timberlake and Chidumayo 2011).
The Zambia/Namibia border west of
Katima Mulilo has very rich fossorial
reptile fauna, including six species
of amphisbaenians, probably the
largest number of sympatric species
recorded worldwide (Timberlake and
Childes 2004).
All of the species in the lizard genus
Cordylus, including the Monitor lizard
genus Varanus and the Python natalensis
found in KAZA-TFCA are listed on
CITES Appendix 2, meaning that trade
of such species must be controlled to
prevent extinction (Timberlake and
Childes 2004). Reptiles and amphibians
are sensitive to environmental changes.
Global warming that brings erratic rainfalls and higher temperatures will restrict
the ranges of species and affect breeding. In the wetlands of Namibias eastern region (former Caprivi), human
activities such as burning of the dry
swamps which alters the Linyati/Chobe
river flows and overgrazing of cattle destroy important habitats, adding more
threats to the survival of the species
(Timberlake and Childes 2004).
Invertebrate species of special social
and economic interest are the most
commonly recorded in the Basin, in-
Table 4.13
Some Amphibian and Reptile Species
Species
Status
Barotse Water Snake

(Crotaphopeltisbarotseensis)
A small back-fanged snake that seems to be restricted to papyrus

and Phragmitesswamps of the Palaeo-Upper Zambezi system. Its
status seems secure unless any way of removing papyrus on a large
scale is developed.
Kafue Reed Frog

(Hyperoliuspyrrhodictyon)
This is a frog endemic to the Kafue Flats and environs that could
be at risk during the tadpole stage due to pollution from agricultural
fertilisers and insecticides.
Southern African Python

(Pythonnatalensis)
Africas second largest snake ranging from east to southern Africa,

it is frequently killed by people and has been locally exterminated in
some areas. The python is most common in waterside habitats,
where it can ambush waterfowl and mammals coming to drink.
Timberlake and Chidumayo 2011; Timberlake and Childes 2004
cluding agricultural pests (army

worm), parasitic or vectors of diseases
(mosquitoes, tsetse flies), edible
(amacimbi/madora) and charismatic insects (butterflies, dragonflies). The full
number of existing species is unknown
but is most likely to be in the thousands.
For example, a study in the Namibian
wetlands recorded just over 800 species
of macro-invertebrates. Invertebrates
are responsible for much of the nutrient
cycling in aquatic ecosystems and form
the basis for complex food chain systems that fish and other larger aquatic
species depend on (Timberlake and
Childes 2004).
Edible insects are a highly nutritional
alternative source of protein for local
people. Throughout the Basin caterpillars
harvested from forests are consumed or
sold in the market thereby supporting
livelihoods. The most common species of
amacimbi/madora (Mopane worm) feed on
mopane leaves and are usually collected
Table 4.14
by women or children. Caterpillar harvesting can have devastating effects if not

accompanied by sustainable practices that
leave the trees intact and maintain healthy
populations of the mopane caterpillar
species. In Zimbabwe, soldier termites are
roasted and used to snack on as an important source of protein (SADC, IUCN and
SARDC 2000).
Bees are an essential part of the environment because they pollinate plants
and crops, and are sources of honey and
wax. The rearing of bees (apiculture) is a
traditional occupation throughout the
miombo zone (SADC, IUCN and
SARDC 2000). Important nectar-producing genera include Acacia, Brachytsegia, Julbernardia, Syzgium and Combretum (SADC,
IUCN and SARDC 2000). In some communities such as in the Eastern Highlands
of Zimbabwe, this is used as a tool for
community development because products from the bees increase sources of
household income. In some areas com-
Nutritional Value of Mopane Caterpillar Compared to Other Foods
Species
Caterpillar
Cooked Beef
Raw Chicken
Whole Milk (cow)
Whole Milk (goat)
Energy Content
(calories)
444
172
146
79
85
Protein (g)
Fat (g)
Carbohydrates (g)
56.8
22.6
20.5
3.8
3.4
16.4
8.0
6.5
4.8
4.9
13.8
0
0
5.4
7.0
SADC, IUCN, SARDC. Biodiversity of Forests and Woodlands in Southern Africa, 2000
Calcium (g)
458
16
10
95
-
109
munities collect wild honey or construct

beehives which are then placed in surrounding forests. This curbs rates of deforestation as the communities are
engaged in protecting the forests for the
production of honey. Ownership of beehives in natural forests also gives a sense
of ownership and stewardship of the
forests themselves, hence activities that
threaten the forests will be seen as a threat
to potential income.
Table 4.15
110
Wildlife resources in the Basin are

under tremendous pressure from a variety of sources that include habitat loss,
poaching and invasive alien species; and
some species have become extinct in recent times. These include the blue wildebeest (Connochaetestaurinus) in Malawi
(probably wiped out by rinderpest), the
Tsessebe antelopes (Damaliscuslunatus) in
Mozambique and the Kob (Kobus kob) in
Tanzania (SADC and SARDC 2008).
Other species face a high risk of extinction, and the number of threatened or
endangered species across the Basin
continues to rise (Table 4.16).
In terms of extinction, the blue antelope and the quagga are the only mammalian species known to have become
extinct in the region in recent times. On
the other hand, the population of a few
wildlife species such as the elephant have
increased or stabilized, in partial response to trade restrictions imposed by
CITES and the manipulation of water
points in protected areas (SADC 2006).
In Angola the overall number of threatened species spiked after the end of civil
Insects that Produce Commercial or

Edible Products
Species
Product
Honey bee
Apismellifera
Honey and wax
Common
stingless bee
Trigonabeccariigribodo
Honey in mopane woodlands
Common
stingless bee
Trigonabeccarii
Honey underground
African wild
silk moth
Gonometa
Wild Silk
Feresu, 2010
Table 4.16
Threatened Animal Species in Zambezi River Basin Countries

Mammals
Birds
Reptiles
Amphibians
2000 2003 2008 2014 2000 2003 2008 2014 2000 2003 2008 2014 2000 2003 2008 2014
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
18
5
8
15
14
43
12
12
19
7
8
15
14
41
11
11
2000
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
0
0
0
3
3
15
0
0
14
6
6
11
11
34
8
8
15
7
8
12
12
36
10
9
Fishes
2003 2008
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22
2
101
45
21
138
10
3
15
7
11
16
9
33
11
10
15
7
11
16
11
33
11
10
18
7
12
21
21
40
12
11
2014
2000
40
2
102
54
27
175
20
3
15
7
11
16
9
33
11
10
24
10
16
27
25
42
16
14
4
0
0
5
1
5
0
0
Molluscs
2003 2008
15
7
11
16
11
33
11
10
18
7
12
21
21
40
12
11
4
0
0
5
3
5
0
0
4
0
0
5
4
5
0
0
4
0
1
8
1
19
1
3
2014
2000
24
10
16
27
25
42
16
14
4
0
0
5
1
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
1
49
1
6
0
0
5
3
27
58
1
6
Other Invertebrates
2003 2008 2014
4
0
0
5
3
5
0
0
4
0
0
5
4
5
0
0
4
0
1
8
1
19
1
3
Note: changes in number do not necessarily mean improvement or decline of species status as more species are being recorded and observed. This table
excludes species that are extinct and species which still need to be assessed.
IUCN 2014; SADC/SARDC and others 2008; UNEP 2002; Vi, Hilton-Taylor and Stuart 2009.
Box 4.3
Table 4.17
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total Number of
Threatened Species
including Plant Species
2000
2003
2008
62
12
41
82
34
379
37
38
71
31
41
108
46
390
36
40
89
15
154
189
82
589
43
49
WILDLIFE SPECIES IN THE BASIN WITH

HIGH RISK OF EXTINCTION
White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) and Black

Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)
Critically close to disappearing altogether, although decisive
conservation action is allowing some populations to revive
Wattled Crane (Bugeranus carunculatus)
Endangered partly due to controlled flooding in the Kafue
Flats which has reduced its nesting sites
African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus)
Endangered and only found in large protected areas
SADC/SARDC and others 2008
IUCN 2014; SADC/SARDC and others 2008; UNEP 2002;

Vi, Hilton-Taylor and Stuart 2009
unrest as areas became more accessible

and counts resumed (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012).
The fast growing economies of
Mozambique and Angola has seen development activities in many parts of the
country. However, these activities may not
always be compatible with biodiversity
conservation which often is not integrated into development planning due to
a lack of information. The big increases
in the number of threatened species in
Mozambique, Tanzania and Malawi, for
example, are revealed due to more studies
and assessments being done (SADC/
SARDC and others 2012).
The diversity and populations of

fish species in major water bodies in
the Basin are declining due to overfishing, water pollution, drying of water
bodies and the introduction of invasive alien species of fish (SADC 2006).
In Tanzania the main centres of
threatened fish species are within
Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa due to combined impacts
of invasive species, eutrophication and
overfishing (SADC/SARDC and others 2012). Figure 4.1 shows a steady
decrease in the fish catch on Lake
Kariba which has been largely attributed to overfishing.
111
Map 4.2
Extent of the Wattled Crane and Blue Swallow in the

Zambezi River Basin
112
SARDC I. Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa, 2015
Map 4.3
The Range of Top Predators (Lions, Cheetahs and African Wild Dog)
in the Zambezi River Basin
Map 4.4
Range of Selected Herbivores in the Zambezi River Basin
113
Box 4.4 gives a detailed account of how

the crayfish, an invasive species, has
spread in Lake Kariba over the years
and threatens the fishing industry as it
feeds on other fish species.
Agro-Biodiversity
The Zambezi Basins tropical location
coupled with variations in altitude, rainfall, and evaporation makes it suitable
for the production of agricultural products found in most parts of the world.
However, agro-genetic diversity is generally higher in traditional than commercial farming systems (ECZ, 2008).
Furthermore, there is a continuous erosion of traditional agro-germplasm
partly due to the following:
The gradual commercialization of
agricultural production by the Basins
smallholder farmers who were hitherto subsistence farmers; and,
Urbanization and the emergence of
a middle class with a preference for
more refined and affluent foods.
Women in the Basin, as in other regions, are key players in the management of biological resources as their
Figure 4.1
Trends in Fish Catch on Lake Kariba
SADC/SARDC and others 2012; SADC 2013
role as food producers and providers

links women directly to the conservation and sustainable utilization of genetic resources for food and agriculture.
Responses to Biodiversity and

Forest Loss
A number of measures have been put
in place or are being considered to address biodiversity and forest loss in the
Basin. These include community par-
Box 4.4
114
INVASIVE AUSTRALIAN CRAYFISH SPREADING FAST IN LAKE KARIBA
An invasive Australian crayfish is spreading and multiplying in the Lake Kariba waters at a
faster rate than previously thought, according to a recent study titled Invasive Australian
crayfish Cheraxquadricarinatus in the Sanyati Basin of Lake Kariba: A preliminary survey. The
study indicates that the invasive predator is has also been found in the Bumi Basin, about 80
kilometres to the west.
It is reported that the red claw Australian crayfish introduced into the lake after escaping
from fish farms in Zambia in 2002 could be inflicting more damage than previously thought,
as it hunts shoals of the small Tanzania sardines commonly known as Kapenta, a dominant
source of fish protein in Zimbabwe. Crayfish eat almost anything, including plants,
invertebrates, snails, small fish, fish eggs and even its own offspring.
The alien species have been breeding out of control, devouring food sources of all fish
breeds, including bream, whose population has also been extensively decimated. Over the past
10 years, it has outpaced other aquatic populations, knocking out weaker species and piling
pressure on the delicate ecosystem, which has to adapt to its new aggressive occupiers that
have no natural predators. Even crocodiles do not eat crayfish. Ecologists are worried that the
alien omnivore could have spread into other dams across Zimbabwe and migrate downstream
of Lake Kariba where they could destroy fisheries.
The report says the possible introduction of this species into other Zimbabwean waters is
a matter of concern as there are already unconfirmed reports that it has been introduced into
other waters in the country. The potential to migrate downstream from Lake Kariba into the
Zambezi River is also of major concern, as it may spread further in the region.
The exploding population could destabilise the reservoirs decades-old ecosystem, as it is
a highly invasive species that can alter the ecosystem structure and processes of invaded waters.
According to reports, the Parks and Wildlife Management Authority of Zimbabwe said that
kapenta output plunged to 8,746 tonnes in 2013 from 19,957 tonnes in 1993.
www.financialgazette.co.zw; African Journal of Aquatic Science,Volume 39, Issue 2, 2014
ticipation in natural resource management, enhancing community level incentives, rewarding local communities
for their indigenous knowledge on natural resources, establishing protected
areas and Transfrontier Conservation
Areas (TFCAs), signing Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (MEAs),
and policy interventions aimed at
slowing down drivers of biodiversity
and forest loss.
Community Participation in Natural
Resource Management
For more than two decades, some Basin
states have been implementing strategies
that support human livelihoods through
the sustainable use of biological resources within the context of Commu-
nity Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM). CBNRM is an

incentive-based conservation and development model that is adaptively implemented by and for people who live with
and directly depend on biological resources and who therefore have the
greatest impact on such resources. In
this model, communities are given rights
of access to resources from the wild and
legal entitlements to benefits that accrue
from using the resources in order to create positive social and economic
incentives for people to invest their time
and energy in natural resource conservation. The success of this approach has
largely depended on the level of devolution, donor commitment, policy
changes and links to tourism and hunt-
ing. The key economic driver of

CBNRM has been wildlife (large mammals), mostly through hunting and photographic safaris. Box 4.5 highlights
Zimbabwes experience with CBNRM.
Community Level Incentives for
Sustainable Biodiversity
Management
The SADC Regional Biodiversity Strategy identifies value addition and the
commercialization of biological resources as necessary for such resources
to effectively contribute to the regions
socio-economic development (SADC
2006). Most biological resources of the
Zambezi Basin have low economic
value in their natural state and thus
local communities derive very little
economic value from them. They are
consumed or sold in raw or semiprocessed form at source. The bulk of
Box 4.5
ZIMBABWES EXPERIENCE WITH THE CAMPFIRE MODEL
The Community Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources

(CAMPFIRE) is a community management model that enables communities
to benefit from wildlife hunting revenue streams in their areas. Part of the
money has traditionally been used to build schools, clinics and roads in targeted
areas by the respective Rural District Councils. This created positive social and
economic incentives for communities to invest their energy in natural resource
conservation.
Under the programme, wildlife-producing wards in 53 of the countrys 57
districts contributed 56,135 sq km of land towards formal wildlife management, thus expanding the wildlife range. This is equivalent to 12.5 percent of
the countrys total land area and held about 12,000 elephants and 14,000 buffalo
in 2003 (Child and others 2003).
Unfortunately, the effectiveness of CAMPFIRE declined significantly in
the late 2000s due to the prevalence of adverse socio-economic conditions
that contributed to the loss of wildlife habitat, increases in human and wildlife
conflict and unprecedented wildlife poaching. However, opportunities for reviving the programme and improving livelihoods of thousands of rural households now exist in the country.
Equally important is the need to ensure that both men and women equally
benefit from these programmes. Research done in Masoka area revealed that
the opportunities created by CAMPFIRE benefited more men than women.
Of the total CAMPFIRE-related jobs in the area comprising almost 80 percent
of wage employment, only three percent of these were taken up by women
(Nabane 1995).
115
116
the resultant benefits accrue to outsiders such as local traders and developed countries who add value to them
through further processing and packaging. Consequently, some CBNRM
initiatives focusing on resources such
as veldt products have had limited success partly because communities see little benefit in their continued
participation in such projects due to
relatively low returns. Nevertheless,
CBNRM experiences in southern
Africa have influenced global thinking
on sustainable use.
There is growing interest in adding
value to and commercializing biological
resources. For example, the Southern
African Natural Products Association
(Phyto Trade Africa) developed commercial opportunities from natural
products derived from indigenous
plants. This was done through investment in research and market development, and facilitating linkages between
rural producers and private sector
processors and manufacturers. Phyto
Trade Africa leveraged significant private sector investment in research and
development of these resources, one of
the few cases in which favourable conditions for private sector investment
have been created and should continue
to be promoted (SADC 2006).
Box 4.6
Another example is research and

development work on the lesser known
timber species. Commercial natural
hardwood timber species in the Basin
are largely confined to teak wood. Other
forest ecosystems in the Basin such as
the vast Miombo woodland have very
limited merchantable timber species as
the physical and mechanical properties
and uses are little known. Research and
development work on some of these
tree species has shown promising results
(Box 4.6). The success of such an initiative could reduce pressure on indigenous timber species currently harvested
unsustainably.
Rewarding Local Communities for
Indigenous Knowledge
Zambezi Basin states continue to confront bio-piracy. Multinational corporations, research institutions and others
have taken out patents on active ingredients of plant and animal species, some of
which are based on indigenous uses of
these biological resources, with little or no
economic benefits accruing to the Basin
and its people. This is partly because:
the global and national intellectual
property systems do not recognize
and legally protect traditional knowledge as it has not been properly documented; and,
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF LESSER KNOWN TREE

SPECIES IN MOZAMBIQUE
Efforts have been made to market lesser known timber species in Mozambique. For
example, Brachystegiaspiciformis was introduced to the European market for parquet
strips for floors. Although Combretumimberbe has been considered a secondary species
with low commercial value, it was recently exported to China as logs. This was followed by a log export ban because of unsustainable harvesting, but demonstrates
the potential value of lesser known species if properly managed.
With respect to other products, strong boards of B. spiciformis mixed with Pinuspatula
have been produced at a laboratory scale. The technical feasibility of using some Mozambican secondary species to manufacture wood cement composites was also assessed.
This study resulted in the identification of species such as B. spiciformis, and B. bohemii
that are compatible with cement without requiring any treatment.
Sitoe and others 2010
some countries do not have inadequate institutional capacity to effectively regulate access to genetic
resources and equitable sharing of
benefits (SADC 2006).
Therefore, SADC has fully supported the need for a legally binding international instrument on Access and
Benefit Sharing (ABS) that would regulate access to genetic resources, their
products and derivatives, as well as protect the knowledge, innovations and
practices of local communities. This
was discussed at the Eighth Conference of Parties of the Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD) held in
Brazil in 2006 (SADC 2006). The instrument would recognize traditional
knowledge and appropriately reward its
holders when it is exploited for commercial gain by outside parties. Although, there was no consensus on the
instrument and it is not yet established,
it is considered to be work in progress
with a long term process.
According to Article 15.1 of the
CBD, provisions related to ABS in a
legally binding international instrument
cannot be a substitute for national legislation on ABS in countries of origin
of genetic resources but should serve as
a means to reinforce the implementation of such laws. In addition, an international regime must recognize the
sovereignty of states to determine access to genetic resources. It is therefore
important to agree on conditions and
measures to guarantee that national
regimes on ABS are observed in countries using those resources, and that the
rights of countries of origin of the genetic resources are respected.
Most Basin states have no effective
national legislation and institutional
arrangements to regulate access to genetic resources and ensure equitable
benefit sharing. In addition, there is no
regional legal mechanism on ABS to underpin national legislation. This is important given that a number of
biological resources and their associated
traditional knowledge transcend na-
tional boundaries. Thus, without a coordinated regional approach, Basin states

risk marginalizing countries and/or
communities in the exploitation of
trans-boundary genetic resources when
competing for bio prospecting and biotrade investments (SADC 2006).
Some Basin states are using elements of the Bonn Guidelines such as
Prior Informed Consent (PIC) and Mutually Agreed Terms (MAT) to negotiate
Material Transfer Agreements (MTA)
with outside parties. However, this has
had limited success as the guidelines are
not legally binding. Some countries are
also regulating access to their biological
resources and sharing associated benefits through specific ABS agreements,
albeit on an opportunistic basis.
This is illustrated by the case of the
leafless spiny succulent plant, Hoodia gordonni, with appetite suppressant qualities.
The discussion of this plant arose during a debate on bio-prospecting and intellectual property rights (Box 4.7).
Although not perfect, the Hoodia Benefit Sharing Agreement reached between
the South African Council for Scientific
and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the
San people (collective owners of the indigenous knowledge on the plant) provides useful insights into the
development and implementation of
ABS legislation in the Basin and beyond.
This highlights the need for strong national and regional legislation and institutional frameworks on ABS to underpin
such agreements (SADC 2006).
117
Box 4.7
118
THE HOODIA SUCCULENT PLANT

AND THE SAN PEOPLE
The San peoples traditional knowledge about the Hoodia

plant, freely conveyed to anthropologists and other researchers many years ago, provided the crucial lead that
guided scientific tests towards the invention and eventual
registration of an international family of patents on the
treatment of obesity by the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). CSIR later licensed
Phytopharm in the United Kingdom to undertake further
development and commercialization of the product.
In the absence of access and benefit-sharing legislation, and as a result of international media exposure of
the Hoodia case, CSIR and the South African San Council
entered into negotiations to develop a Memorandum of
Understanding, in recognition of the collective rights of
the San as the owners of the indigenous knowledge on the
use of Hoodia. The process included workshops that were
attended by the San from Botswana and Namibia as well
as experts on community development from Canada. The
South African San Council was mandated by the Working
Group of Indigenous Minorities in Southern Africa
(WIMSA) to pursue negotiations in terms of this agreement, which were successfully concluded, and a benefit
sharing agreement was signed on March 2003.
The core terms of the agreement are that the San
people will receive the following:
Eight percent of all milestone payments received by
CSIR during the development stages of the project;
and,
Six percent of all royalty payments received by CSIR as
a result of commercial sales of the anti-obesity product
based on Hoodia, for the duration of the patents.
More than 70 percent of the protected areas lie across international

boundaries, thus providing opportunities
for initiatives on the management of
transboundary natural resource within
the Basin. Most Basin states are close to
achieving the Aichi 2020 Biodiversity
Target of setting aside 17 percent of
their land area for deliberate protection
(CBD, undated). Angola proclaimed two
new protected areas in 2011 Mawinga
and Luengue-Liuana (Lisboa 2013).
Regarding wetlands, Zimbabwe became a Party to the Ramsar Convention
during the review period. Its accession
came into force in May 2013 with seven
sites being designated as wetlands of international importance (EMA 2014). Six
of the sites fall within the Zambezi
Basin and most of them are important
for biodiversity conservation. Notwithstanding the foregoing developments,
the total land area of the Zambezi Basin
under protection has remained fairly stable since 2000. However, the effectiveness of park management across Basin
states declined largely due to reduced
government funding. For example, government funding for the protection and
development of the national park estate
in Zimbabwe fell from $200/sq km in
1980 to less than $10/sq km in 2009. A
comparative figure for Kruger National
Park in South Africa is $2,000/sq km
(Cumming 2009).
Transfrontier Conservation Areas
SADC 2006
Protected Areas and TFCAs

Protected Areas
Basin states have set aside some 18 percent of their total land area as protected
areas consisting of gazetted forests and
national parks. Protected areas are rich
in biodiversity; provide habitat for endangered species of flora and fauna,
such as the crowned crane and bearded
vulture, and thus play an important role
in the in situ conservation of a wide
range of genetic resources.
Transfrontier Conservation Areas

(TFCAs) are protected areas where two
or more countries participate in managing a shared conservation area. TFCAs
are regarded as one of the anchors for
regional economic integration, socioeconomic development and poverty reduction through multi-destination and
cross-border tourism (SADC/SARDC
and others 2008), and there has been an
increase in TFCA initiatives in the Basin
in recent years. The Basin has six
TFCAs that are at different stages of
development, as shown in Table 4.19
and Map 4.4.
Table 4.18
Extent of Protected Areas in the Zambezi Basin

Extent of protected areas in the Zambezi Basin (sq km)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
Country Size
% of Total
81 812
104 988
10 585
66 020
112 160
263 141
236 919
46 504
81 812
10 4988
10 585
66 020
112 160
263 791
236 919
46 504
81 812
104 988
10 585
67 300
112 160
263 791
236 919
46 504
81 812
104 988
10 585
67 300
112 160
263 791
236 919
46 504
81 812
104 988
10 585
67 300
112 160
263 791
236 921
46 504
1 246 700
581 730
118 484
802 000
824 269
945 087
752 614
390 759
7
18
9
8
14
28
31
12
SADC/SARDC and others, Southern Africa Environment Outlook, 2008
Table 4.19
Transfrontier Conservation Areas in the Zambezi Basin
TFCA
Brief description
Kavango-Zambezi (KAZA).
Angola, Botswana, Namibia,
Zambia and Zimbabwe
Governments of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe signed an MOU establishing the TFCA in 2006. The TFCA
covers 287,000 sq km which embrace 36 projected areas including
national parks, game reserves, community conservancies and
game management areas. One of its main objectives is to merge
fragmented wildlife habitats into an interconnected mosaic of protected areas and trans-boundary wildlife corridors to facilitate and
enhance free movement of wildlife across international boundaries.
The area has at least 3,000 species of plants, 100 of which are endemic to the Basin, as well as more than 600 bird species.
ZIMOZA. Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia
In 2009 an agreement was reached by tourism authorities in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zambia to establish the TFCA. The joint
venture covers the management of the cultural heritage of local
communities, hunting and fishing and wildlife conservation.
Selous-Niassa. Tanzania
and Mozambique
This TFCA is still in the planning phase. It is intended to protect an

extensive migration corridor for elephants in southern Tanzania and
northern Mozambique. The TFCA will cover the Selous Game Reserve in Tanzania (47,000 sq km) and Niassa Game Reserve in
Mozambique (42,400 sq km).
Malawi /Zambia.
The TFCA includes the Nyika conservation area and the

Kasungu/Lukusuzi. It is famous for wild flowers and orchids, especially during summer.
Lower Zambezi-Mana Pools.

Zambia and Zimbabwe
The TFCA is still at the planning stage between Zambia and Zimbabwe. It lies in the Zambezi valley and has long been used by
wildlife as a thoroughfare between the Zambezi escarpment and
the Zambezi river. The two national conservation areas lying opposite each other will combine to create a massive wildlife sanctuary
on both sides of the Zambezi river.
Liuwa Plan-Mussuma.
Angola and Zambia
The TFCA is between Angola and Zambia. It projects the third

largest migratory population of blue wildebeest in Africa. Massive
herds of wildebeest migrate from Zambia to Angola and back, traversing the plains in their thousands and mingling with zebras on
migration.
SADC/SARDC and others, Southern Africa Environment Outlook, 2008; SADC/SARDC and others, Zambezi River Basin Atlas
of the Changing Environment, 2012; ZELA 2009
119
Map 4.5
120
Zambezi Basin Transfrontier Conservation Areas
Biodiversity Dynamics in the Basin

This section describes the African Wild
Dog in the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area; and the
water hyacinth on Lake Chivero in Zimbabwe.
African Wild Dog in the Kavango
Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation
Area
The African Wild Dog (Lycaonpictus) is a
predator and tourism asset of ecological
and economic significance. Wild dogs
live at low densities with an average
home range of 400-800 sq km. They average two adults per 100 sq km and their
behavioural ecology requires large landscapes for them to survive and prosper.
African Wild Dog pack members are
cooperative hunters of medium-sized
antelope although they also take smaller
and larger antelope. They are less abundant in situations of high prey density
possibly because of their limited ability
to compete with larger predators
(Woodroffe, 2013).
Under normal circumstances only

one female and one male breed within a
pack (the basic unit of a wild dog population) and all pack members help to
care for pups. Most young wild dogs
leave the natal pack during their second
year as single-sex groups. New packs
form when opposite sex dispersal
groups meet one another. Dispersal
groups may travel hundreds of kilometres and sometimes show up as vagrants
in countries or areas with no resident
populations. Wild dogs are territorial
and communicate their boundaries by
scent, and range in response to the presence of neighbours/boundaries.
The global population of the
African Wild Dog is in decline. It is
listed as endangered in the IUCN Red
List of threatened species (Woodroffe
and others 2012) and its global population is estimated at less than 700 packs.
Within Africa, the dogs are now restricted to the eastern and southern part
of the continent. The KAZA TFCA is
home to the worlds largest wild dog
population (about 24 percent) and offers unrivalled opportunities for wild
dog conservation (Woodroffe 2013).
Recent genetic work demonstrated connectivity across about 400 km of the
TFCA which has the highest recorded
genetic diversity of wild dogs and no evidence of inbreeding (Marsden and others 2012).
The African Wild Dog is under
pressure from conservation and socioeconomic related threats that include
habitat fragmentation; human and wild
dog conflict; road kills/mortalities; accidental trapping/snares; and diseases.
Major land use systems in the
KAZA TFCA include: protected areas,
private farms, communal areas and
state land. Smallholder farmers on
communal land practice subsistence
agriculture in the form of crop and
livestock production while private
farms engage in commercial livestock
ranching. Agricultural expansion has
resulted in habitat fragmentation and
increased contact between wild dogs
Table 4.20
Predator
Wild dog
Cheetah
Leopard
Lion
Jackal
Hyena
Incidents of Reported Livestock Loss

by Predators in Three Districts of Botswana
Ngamiland
2008-2011
(average %)
20
2
28
47
1
2
Central
2010-2011
(average %)
15
5
60
9
0
11
Kgalagadi
2005-2010
(average %)
20
2
31
29
7
11
Dipotso 2013
and humans leading to human and

wild dog conflict. As a result of the
perception of this species as a threat
to livestock, wild dogs are not tolerated by farmers. This is despite observations that they only regularly prey on
livestock in situations where the latter
is abundant and wild prey is scarce.
Table 4.20 shows the proportion of
predator and livestock cases reported in
three districts of Botswana. Incidents of
human and wild dog conflict were consistently high across the three districts
compared to those attributed to other
predators. This partially explains the retaliatory and sometimes indiscriminate
killing of wild dogs by livestock farmers
and the general negative perceptions towards wild dogs by the public. It is however worth noting that there could be
some over-reporting of wild dog incidents at the expense of livestock kills by
other predators such the jackal and
hyena for which there is no government
compensation. The need for independent confirmation of the predator in
conflict reports received from farmers
can therefore not be over emphasized
(Dipotso 2013).
Snaring is a major problem for wild
dog packs, especially in some game
management areas of Zambia. For example, over 500 snares were found in
the Luangwa Valley in 2011 (Sichone
2013). Diseases are also a serious threat
to wild dogs. These include rabies, canine distemper and anthrax. The wild
dog is also very prone to being killed by
vehicles on roads.
121
The focus on large transboundary

landscapes such as the KAZA TFCA
provides opportunities for the creation
of wildlife corridors that can minimize
human and wild dog conflict. Individual TFCA countries have or are developing wild dog national action plans,
the majority of which are yet to be implemented. Zambia and Zimbabwe
have gazetted statutory instruments
banning the hunting of wild dogs
(Sichone2013; Makuwe 2013). See
Table 4.21.
Some Basin states including
Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe
have launched public awareness campaigns on the ecological and socioeconomic value of the wild dog; and
Table 4.21
122
Riparian state
Angola
Botswana
Namibia
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Taylor 2013
Status of the Wild Dog National Action

Plans in KAZA TFCA Member States
Plan exists
Draft
produced
Not in
place
X
X
X
X
X
on changing peoples attitude towards

the species. They have targeted programmes such as schools outreach.
Furthermore, instead of having only
elephant warning road signs, there has
been motivation to add wild dog warning signs in key places to encourage
the public to reduce speed and minimize the wild dog road carnage. There
are also opportunities to rebrand the
species as a tool for attracting tourists
to their areas of domicile both within
and outside protected areas. The Government of Botswana compensates
farmers for livestock killed by certain
predators including wild dogs. This is
intended to reduce retaliation on the
wild dogs by the affected farmers.
Water Hyacinth on
Lake Chivero-Zimbabwe
Water hyacinth (Eichhorniacrassipes
(Mart) Solms) originates from South
America and is one of the worlds
most widespread invasive aquatic
plants. The plant grows very fast and
rapidly depletes nutrients and oxygen
from water bodies, adversely affecting
flora and fauna. It normally forms
thick, intertwining mats due to its fast

reproductive rate and intricate root
structure (Mitchell 1976). Shoeb and
Singh (2002) reported that the
weed can achieve a growth rate of
17.5 tons/ha/day under favourable
conditions.
The water weed first occurred in
Zimbabwe in 1937 and was noticed on
Lake Chivero by 1952. Between 1956
and 1990 it infested the lakes 25 sq km
by between 15 percent and 35 percent
(Chikwenhere and Phiri 2010). A carpet of the dried up plant is so dense
that people can walk on it while water
flows beneath it on parts of the lake.
The weed can rapidly dominate natural
areas and drastically alter species composition, structure and function of native plant and animal communities.
Large, intense water hyacinth mats can
corrupt water quality and obstruct
water ways. Plant respiration and biomass decay leads to oxygen depletion
and fish kills.
Temperature and nutrient levels are
the strongest determinant factors for
water hyacinth growth and reproduction
(Wilson and others 2005). The high rate
at which Lake Chiveros water is polluted with chemical nutrients, especially
phosphates and nitrates creates condi-
tions for the weed to flourish. The

major pollutants include:
Raw effluent and domestic and industrial waste from Harare, Chitungwiza and Chinhoyi city/town
municipalities and factories; and,
Inorganic fertilizers and pesticides
from stream-bank cultivation within
the lakes catchment.
Chemical, biological and mechanical methods have been used to control
the water hyacinth on Lake Chivero with
limited success. Once established, the
weed is difficult to eradicate. Consequently, most management efforts focus
on reducing economic costs and ecological impacts associated with the weed.
The herbicide 2,4-D was used to control
the weed on the lake with great success.
However, its use was discontinued after
studies showed that the chemical was
harmful to both humans and aquatic
life. Consequently, the weed resurfaced
around 1986 but efforts to control it
using glyphosate failed.
Government then changed its strategy to biological control by importing
150,000 insects from Australia to feed on the weed.
The pest eliminated about
95 percent of the plant but
died out as the feed source
123
dwindled, paving way for the weed to

reappear. The Zimbabwe National
Army was then deployed to the lake
and cleared some 100,000 tons of the
plant. However, the armys efforts
failed to match the weeds rapid growth
rate hence it withdrew from the lake.
The national economic challenges of
2007 and early 2009 coupled with the
absence of effective control strategies
enabled the weed to re-establish and
flourish (Mukarati 2012).

Basin states have signed and/or ratified
and acceded to a number of international
instruments related to biodiversity, as
shown in Table 4.22. The countries are at
different stages of implementing provisions of these instruments.
Convention on Biological Diversity
The Convention on Biological Diversity

(CBD) was opened for signature on 5
June 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Brazil (Rio Earth Summit),
entered into force on 29 December
1993 and all Basin states have ratified
the agreement (CBD 2011). The Convention has three objectives: conservation of biological diversity, sustainable
use of its components, and the fair and
equitable sharing of benefits arising
from the utilization of genetic resources
(UNEP 2006). Successful programmes
that spoke to and forwarded the CBD
initiative include CAMPFIRE in Zimbabwe and the Wetlands Programme in
the Kafue and Bangweulu Flats in Zambia (SADC, IUCN and SARDC 2000).
The tenth meeting of the Conference
of the Parties adopted a revised Strategic
Plan for Biodiversity including the Aichi
biodiversity targets for 2011 to 2020 period (CBD 2010). The Aichi Biodiversity
Targets address the underlying causes of
biodiversity loss by mainstreaming biodi-
AICHI BIODIVERSITY TARGETS
Box 4.8
Aichi Biodiversity Targets

Goal A Address the underlying causes of
biodiversity loss by mainstreaming
biodiversity across government and
society.
Goal B Reduce the direct pressures on
biodiversity and promote sustainable use.
Goal C Improve the status of biodiversity by
safeguarding ecosystems, species and
genetic diversity.
Goal D Enhance the benefits to all from
biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Goal E Enhance implementation through
participatory planning, knowledge
management and capacity building.
124
CBD 2010
Table 4.22
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Status of Riparian States on International Instruments

Convention
on Biological
Diversity
(CBD)
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
Convention on Cartagena
International
Protocol on
Trade in
Biosafety
Endangered
Species of Wild
Fauna and
Flora (CITES)
a
a
a
a
a
r
a
a
Key
r - ratified; s - signed; a - acceded; m - member
SADC Regional Biodiversity Strategy, 2006
r
r
r
a
a
-
International
Treaty on
Plan Genetic
Resources
for Food and
Agriculture
(ITPGRFA)
s
r
s
s
s
s
Ramsar
Convention
on
Wetlands
r
r
s
s
r
r
r
UN
Convention
to Combat
Desertification
(UNCCD)
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
Kyoto
Protocol
a
r
a
a
r
World
Intellectual
Property
Organization
(WIPO)
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
Table 4.23
Major Wetlands and Ramsar Sites (September 2014)
Country
Wetland
Botswana
Okavango Delta
System
Malawi
Lake Chilwa
Mozambique
LagoNiassa e
ZonaCosteira
Area (ha)
Utilization
Date of designation
Hunting, tourism, subsistence farming,

fishing, and livestock grazing
9 Dec 1996
224 800
Fishing, agriculture (rice and dimba

cultivation), and livestock grazing
14 Nov 1996
1 363 700
Fishing, agriculture, animal rearing,

hunting, trade and handicrafts
26 April 2011
5 537 400
Marromeu Complex
688 000
Wildlife, fishing, agriculture
3 Aug 2004
Namibia
Etosha Pan, Lake

Oponono and Cuvelai
drainage
600 000
Farming, fishing domestic water supply,

wildlife
23 Aug 1995
Tanzania
Orange River Mouth
Restricted recreation
23 Aug 1995
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Sandwich Harbour
16 500
Fishing, guano collection, hunting, tourism
23 Aug 1995
Walvis Bay
12 600
Wildlife, recreation, salt production
23 Aug 1995
Kilombero Valley
Floodplain
796 735
Fishing, tourism, agriculture
25 April 2002
Lake Natron Basin
224 781
Semi-nomadic pastoralism, tourism,

planned soda ash exploitation
4 July 2001
Hunting, honey gathering, harvesting forest

products and cattle grazing
13 April 2000
Fishing, cultivation (especially rice),

seaweed farming and tourism
29 Oct 2004
Ecotourism
28 Aug 1991
Malagarasi-Muyovozi
Wetlands
3 250 000
Rufiji-Mafia-Kilwa
Marine Ramsar site
596 908
Bangweulu Swamps
1 100 000
125
Busanga Swamps
200 000
Wildlife, fishing, tourism
2 Feb 2007
Kafue Flats
600 500
Wildlife, fishing, grazing, tourism
28 Aug 1991
Luangwa Flood Plains
250 000
Wildlife
2 Feb 2007
Lukanga Swamps
260 000
Wildlife, reeds for basket making
2 Feb 2007
Mweru waNtipa
490 000
Wildlife, fishing
2 Feb 2007
Tanganyika
230 000
Fishing, forest products
2 Feb 2007
Zambezi Floodplains
900 000
Wildlife, fishing, reeds and sedges for

handicraft, rice cultivation
2 Feb 2007
Tourism, UNESCO heritage site, cultural

significance
2011
Wildlife, Urban, fishing, tourism, research
2011
Wildlife, Urban, agriculture, fishing, tourism
2011
Wildlife, subsistence agriculture, grazing,
2011
Wildlife, tourism
2011
Urban water use, Wildlife,
2011
Toursim, Wildlife, Hydro Energy,
2011
Chinhoyi Caves
Lake Chivero and
Manyame
Cleveland Dam
Driefontein Grassland
Mana Pools
Ramsar 2014
500
8
29 260
2500
20 000
200
MonovaleVlei
34
Victoria Falls
2 340
versity across all sectors (SARDC/

SARDC and others 2012). The objective
of the strategic plan is to take effective
and urgent action to halt the loss of biodiversity in order to ensure that by 2020
ecosystems are resilient and continue to
provide essential services, thereby securing the planets variety of life, and contributing to human wellbeing and
poverty eradication (SARDC/SARDC
and others 2012).
CITES
126
The Convention on International Trade

in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna
and Flora (CITES) tackles the problem
of protection of endangered species by
controlling the international trade market of fauna and flora especially those
species that are most threatened (Chenje
2000). In some cases CITES bans the
trade of species such as the Black Rhino
and African Elephant, which was met by
some opposition from SADC countries
such as Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, which have strong elephant protection systems and more elephants
than the carrying capacity of the habitat
The biggest challenge for CITES is
that species that are banned or restricted
from trading become highly lucrative in
illegal trading markets, CITES has been
met with mixed success throughout the
Basin. In Zimbabwe the listing of the
black rhinoceros in Appendix 1 in the
1970s failed to revive the rhinoceros
population, however restricted trade and
sound management helped to improve

elephant populations (Feresu 2010).
This increase of elephant populations
saw several areas surpass the carrying
capacity for these mega-herbivores thus
causing ecological damage, hence the
opposition to the continual listing of the
African Elephant (Feresu 2010).
Although it must be noted that in
order for CITES to be effective ongoing
assessment of local situations and innovations that allow controlled trade such
as the Southern Africa Centre for Ivory
Marketing established by Botswana,
Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and
Zimbabwe and sanctioned by CITES
(Government of Botswana 2006). Such
initiatives allow sustainable trade and
harvesting of species.
Ramsar Convention on Wetlands
The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands
signed in 1971 provides a framework for
national action an international cooperation for the conservation and wise use
of wetlands and their resources (Chenje
2000). The criteria for listing an aquatic
ecosystem as being of international importance include the uniqueness of the
wetland system and its role in supporting populations of endangered species
(Hirji and others 2002). All Basin states
are signatories of the Ramsar Convention after Zimbabwe became the latest
signatory in 2011. Such regulatory instruments help to enhance ecosystem
diversity within the region. By 2000 only
two sites were recognized in Zambezi
Basin, but that number has grown significantly as shown in the table below.
A number of regional programmes
and projects related to some of these instruments are being implemented. Basin
states have also signed and/or ratified
several SADC regional biodiversity related protocols. The protocols provide
legally binding frameworks for regional
collaboration among riparian states and
demonstrate the regions political and
technical will to mainstream the environment into its development strategies.
These include regional protocols on:
Shared Water Course Systems; Trade;

Education and Training; Culture, Information and Sport; Energy; Mining; Development of Tourism; Health; Wildlife
Conservation and Law Enforcement;
Fisheries; and Forestry (SADC 2006).
It is therefore critical that Basin states endeavour to undertake regular biodiversity

inventories that cover the whole range of
species and habitats. In the case of
TFCAs, wildlife surveys should be synchronized to reduce the risk of double
counting by neighbouring Basin States.
Conclusion
Community Participation in Natural

Resource Management
A number of Basin states have enacted
legislation that enables rural communities to participate in and economically
benefit from biodiversity in their areas
of domicile through CBNRM initiatives.
Such economic incentives encourage
communities to sustainably manage
their biodiversity. However, such benefits can be enhanced by broadening
CBNRM beyond wildlife. This should
embrace the following:
Eco-tourism ventures;
Commercialization of and value
addition to other non-wildlife
biodiversity resources such as
veldt products; and,
A regionally coordinated and rationalized approach to the development of sui generis legislation on
Access and Benefit Sharing in the
SADC. This will reduce unnecessary competition among Basin
states as outside parties will not be
able to move from one country to
another in pursuit of more
favourable access conditions on
genetic materials (SADC, 2006).
It is also important that issues of
gender are integrated into the current
and future policies governing the management of biological resources as
women have remained absent at all levels of policy formulation and decisionmaking in natural resource and
environmental management, conservation, protection and rehabilitation. In
addition, local level institutions that deal
with biological resources have been
weak, especially under communal land
tenure systems, and there has been limited participation by women in existing
institutional structures (WWF 2012).
Addressing Drivers of
Biodiversity Loss
The major drivers of biodiversity loss
and deforestation in the Basin include:
over-reliance on wood energy;
agricultural expansion into marginal
land; and,
poor land-use planning.
There is therefore need to implement the following measures buttressed
by appropriate legislative provisions:
Promotion of efficient and sustainable energy solutions such as
renewable energy; and the use of
technologies that improve the
production efficiency and use of
traditional biomass.
Improvement and stabilization of
agricultural productivity through
the promotion of conservation
agriculture and the establishment
of strategic alliances between agriculturalists and conservationists.
Promotion of integrated land-use
planning that places natural resources at the centre of a national
social, political and economic development agenda, focuses on empowering the countrys citizens to
understand the value of natural resources, and ensures that citizens
derive tangible benefits from a
countrys biological resources at
different levels.
Data on Biodiversity Trends
Most biodiversity assessments in the
Basin have focused on species and habitats of economic importance and have
largely been irregular. This makes it difficult to establish biodiversity trends for
planning and decision-making purposes.
127
CHAPTER LINKAGES
Overview
Forests and woodlands are an important source of livelihood, providing basic needs such as food, energy and
shelter. Forests have essential environmental functions through watershed protection and clean air provision.
The Basin has a variety of ecosystem, habitat, species and genetic resources that are critical for the human development and wellbeing.
WATER RESOURCES
Freshwater and wetlands constitute major ecosystems that sustain aquatic species through habitat and nourish
terrestrial ecosystems. Forests are essential to water retention and flow, so these resources are mutually dependent
and produce better if both are healthy.
Land supports the growth of forests and woodlands, while forests and woodlands protect land from degradation.
Land clearance is a major threat to biodiversity through loss and modification of habitat.
Forests and woodlands regulate the nitrogen and carbon cycles. The carbon cycle is a factor in climate change.
Forests act as carbon sinks, and are credited with helping to maintain or lower global temperatures.
128
ENERGY
Activities in the energy sector have implications for biological diversity in the Zambezi Basin. Energy developments, such as construction of dams for hydropower have major impacts on biodiversity through modification
of habitat and flooding.
Forests and woodlands support people in various ways, including food, medicine and the provision of timber
for construction of settlements. However, the same forests and woodlands tend to be cleared to make way for
new settlements, and many urban areas in the basin are ringed with deforestation due to charcoal production.
TOURISM
Tourism in the Zambezi Basin is reliant on the rich fauna and flora of the Basin, and helps to protect biodiversity
due to its role in income generation. Nature-based tourism is a fast-growing industry that depends on healthy
ecosystems rich in biodiversity.
Industrial development in areas that are rich in biodiversity can contribute to the destruction of ecosystems
and reduction in species distribution, and needs appropriate control systems.
SCENARIOS
The Basins forests will continue to be depleted as long as human needs continue to grow. The growth of the
forestry and woodlands sector depends on policies and practices, and awareness
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VARIABILITY
Introduction
Climate in the Zambezi River Basin and
the rest of Africa is changing and the
impacts are already being felt. The Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC)
2014 asserts that further change in climate is inevitable in the coming decades
and will pose greater challenges to growth
and development. Average temperatures
in southern Africa have risen by 0.5C
over the last century, with the 1990s
deemed the warmest and driest decade
ever (SADC/SARDC and others 2008).
As adaptation brings immediate benefits
today and in the future, the Basin states
are embarking on several adaptation
strategies to reduce the impact.
Climate Change describes alteration
in the state of the climate (mainly temperature, rainfall, radiation, wind and cloud
cover) that persists for an extended period, typically decades to centuries and
does not necessarily return to the original
state. In contrast, Climate Variability is the
temporary phenomena that occur on
timescales ranging from a few minutes to
a decade or more. Climate variability results from mechanisms within the climate
Figure 5.1
system and results in properties that eventually go back to where they were (IPCC
2014). For example, it is difficult to know
whether a climate event such as a drought,
is the result of climate change or climate
variability.
An approach called single-event attribution as well as improved statistical
approaches are making it easier to know
if an event results from climate change or
variability. Examples of climate events related to climate variability include ocean
or atmosphere fluctuations such as the El
Nio/Southern oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation while those related to climate
change include rapid atmospheric warming over the last century, the shrinkage of
mountain glaciers worldwide, and changes
in sea level.
Climate change and variability has
historically posed challenges related to
extreme weather and climate events
such as droughts, floods, heat waves,
spread of climate-related diseases and
rise in sea level. Under a warmer atmosphere, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events is
expected to increase and become the
new norm (Figure 5.1).
Coping Range, Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change
Lesolle, D., SADC Policy Paper on Climate Change: Assessing the Policy Options for SADC Member States, 2012
131
The impacts of climate change are

felt differently by men, women and children who do not have same vulnerability levels and capacities to adapt due to
the differing roles, cultural restrictions,
opportunities and access to resources.
The climate change challenge therefore,
while serious and urgent, brings with it
enormous opportunities for the Zambezi Basin to advance efforts towards
sustainable development, basin-wide cooperation and integration.
What Causes Climate Change?

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 2014
finds with 95 percent certainty that
human activity has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the
Figure 5.2
Atmospheric Concentrations
132
Australias national science agency CSIRO
Box 5.1
mid-20th century, largely by increasing the

concentrations of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere. Human activities that
lead to the warming of the earths atmosphere include the burning of fossil fuels
such as oil, coal and petroleum. The use
of some agricultural and industrial chemicals also leads to the build-up of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide as well as water vapour, trap heat
in the atmosphere causing global warming. The atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases increases when emissions outweigh the removal processes.
As a result of historical consumption
patterns, the atmospheric concentration
of greenhouse gases has increased from
287 parts per million by volume (ppmv)
at pre-industrial level to more than 400
ppmv in 2013 (Figure 5.2). The change in
concentration has altered the radioactive
energy balance of the atmosphere and
consequently more sunlight energy is
trapped and retained by the atmosphere.
If no action is taken, it is estimated that
by 2100 the concentration of greenhouse
gases would reach 700ppmv (IPCC 2007).
The changes in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate in the
Zambezi River Basin is therefore attributable to global warming and climate
change, and depicted as an increase in
the minimum temperatures, changes in
the rainfall intensity, timing (onset and
cessation) of the rainfall season, and increase in the wind characteristics.
ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEM
Increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities over the past 60 years have
caused increases in global average temperatures, according to expert reports (Boko 2007).
Once heated, the atmospheric global warming and climate change adds on to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods. The identified changes in
climate are discernible in the averages as well as in the variance.
The atmosphere like any energy system, will attempt to stabilise and attain
equilibrium by using up the additional energy through other forms of energy such as
kinetic energy (wind); electric and sound energy (thunderstorms); latent heat in
condensation and evaporation leading to aridity and downpours leading to flooding
(Lesolle 2012).
Greenhouse Emissions and Sinks

The main drivers for climate change related concerns in the Zambezi River
Basin are not emanating from within the
basin itself. The increased concentration
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
is a result of large-scale historical emissions from the industrialised north and
is exacerbated by emissions from some
of the larger emerging economies.
The climate drivers shown in Figure
5.3 have a direct impact on the earth systems including changes in temperature,
precipitation and sea level, and in the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events.
The Zambezi Basin States are not
major emitters of greenhouse gases. The
emissions in 2000 were about 100 million
tons, according to national reports of the
parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This
constitutes only 0.01 percent of Africas
emissions, which are about 3.7 percent of
all global emissions.
The Zambezi Basin states have a
substantial sink capacity for greenhouse gases in their forests. Forests absorb carbon dioxide as carbon sinks.
Communities in the Basin rely heavily
on firewood, which accounts for almost
80 percent of the total energy requirements among the Basins rural population and urban poor. Experts predict
that wood use in Africa will double by
2020 (ProBEC 2014).
Climate Conditions of the

Zambezi Basin
The climatic condition of the Zambezi
River Basin varies spatially from arid in
the west (Botswana and Namibia)
through semi-arid and sub-humid areas
in central zones and to the east. Closer
to the equator, in Angola and coastal
Tanzania, it is largely humid.
The climate is influenced by air
masses of different origins. Three prevailing wind systems have a strong influence
on the regions climate, and these are the
Figure 5.3
Climate Drivers, Impacts and Responses
Bernstein and others, 2007
sub-tropical eastern continental moist

maritime (with regular occurrence of cyclones); the south-easterly wind system
that brings rainfall from the Indian
Ocean, and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). See Figure 5.4. The
ITCZ is a zone close to the equator where
massive rain-bearing clouds form when
the South East Trade Wind (from the
south east of the continent) meets the
North East Monsoon Winds.
The ITCZ changes position during
the year, oscillating between the equator
and the Tropic of Capricorn, and its
southward movement usually marks the
beginning of a rainy season. The further
south the zone moves, the more promising this is considered to be for the rainy
season. In a normal season, the ITCZ can
exert an influence between mid-Tanzania
133
Figure 5.4
Rainfall Determining Systems for the

Zambezi River Basin
Lesolle, D., SADC Policy Paper on Climate Change: Assessing the Policy
Options for SADC Member States, 2012
and southern Zimbabwe and is associated

with favourable rainfall. Another system,
the Botswana High, often tends to push
the ITCZ away, resulting in periods of
drought.
The southeastern part of the Zambezi Basin can be influenced by the El
Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is triggered by changes
in the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO can bring heavy
rains, often accompanied by severe floods
as in 1999/2000 when Mozambique was
hit exceptionally hard, or drought, as in
1982/83 when much of southern Africa
134
Figure 5.5
Impact of ENSO on Rainfall in the

Zambezi River Basin
was severely affected. ENSO can manifest itself as either El Nio or La Nia associated with warm and cool seas surface
temperatures respectively in the tropical
Pacific (SADC/ SARDC and others
2008).
During an El Nio, the southeastern
region is likely to receive below average
rainfall. A La Nia event is very likely to
result in the opposite impacts, when the
region would receive significant amount
of rainfall. There has been an increase in
the frequency and intensity of El Nio
episodes. Prior to the 1980s, strong El
Nio events occurred every 10 to 20 years
on average. However, since 1980 strong
El Nio occurrences have become more
frequent, particularly 1982 and 1983; 1991
and 1992; 1994 and 1995; and 1997 and
1998 (Glantz 2001; SADC/SARDC and
others 2008).
The warm climate of the Zambezi
Basin makes it attractive as a tourist destination, bringing in the revenue that will
help in facilitating basin-wide cooperation and regional integration. The rich
biodiversity in the basin is linked to the
conducive climate that supports growth
of fauna and flora.
Although identification of ENSO
has improved over the years, a lot remains to be done before scientists are
able to predict spatial patterns of impact
with certainty to allow adaptive responses to be developed. See Figure 5.5.
Observed Changes in Climate in the

Zambezi Basin
According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), warming over
land across the Zambezi Basin and the
rest of the continent has increased
during the last 50 to 100 years. Data
from 1950 onwards suggests that climate change has changed the magnitude and frequency of some extreme
weather events in the Basin. The
health, livelihoods and food security
of people in the Basin have been affected by climate change.
Observed Changes in Temperature

Southern Africa including the Zambezi
Basin has had a warming trend over the
past few decades. This is consistent with
the global trend of temperature rise in the
1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Instrument observations from several SADC member
states show an increase in temperatures,
especially the minimum temperatures.
Table 5.1
Country
Angola
Malawi
Mozambique
Tanzania
Zambia
The observed trend in some southern

African countries between 1960 and 2006
indicates an increase in mean annual temperature, as shown in Table 5.1. For example, in Angola the mean annual
temperature has increased at an average
rate of 0.33oC per decade, while in Malawi
the average rate of increase was 0.21oC
per decade in the same period (SADC
RCCP 2010). The same report
notes that the average annual temObserved and
perature for Angola is projected to
Predicted Temperature Changes
increase by 1.5oC by 2030, 2.7oC by
Change in C Projected changes in C
2060 and 3.6oC by 2090. This upper decade
ward trend is projected for all the
1960-2006
2030
2060
five countries studied.
0.33
1.5
2.7
Other studies say that
0.21
1.3
2.5
Botswana
had an increase in
0.13
1.2
2.3
warming
at
a rate of 0.017C per
0.23
1.3
2.3
0.29
year between 1910 and 2000
1.5
2.6
(Lesolle 2012). See Figure 5.6.
o
Young and others, 2010
135
Figure 5.6
Changes in Minimum Temperature for Gaborone, Botswana
Red line shows actual data for 1910 to 2000. Projection is based on the IS92a IPCC climate change scenario.
Figure 5.7
Annual Mean Temperature Changes for Kariba
Meteorological Services of Zimbabwe, 2009
For Mozambique, the mean annual

temperature increased by 0.6C between
1960 and 2006, with an average rate of
0.13C per decade (INGC 2009). Other
noticeable changes in temperature are in
Namibia. Between 1950 and 2000, the
country experienced warming at a rate of
0.023C per year. It is predicted with a
high degree of certainty that Namibia will
become hotter throughout the year, with
a predicted increase in temperatures of
between 1C and 3.5C in summer and
1C to 4C in winter in the period 2046 2065. Maximum temperatures have been
getting hotter over the past 40 years, as
observed in the frequency of days exceeding 35C. Equally, the frequency of
days with temperatures below 5C has
been getting less, suggesting an overall
warming (Government of Namibia
2011). For Zimbabwe, a rise in temperature is noted at Kariba where mean an-
136
Table 5.2
Country
Angola
Malawi
Mozambique
Tanzania
Zambia
Observed and Projected Changes in Frequency

of Hot and Cold Days
Observed change in
frequency per decade
between 1960-2006 (%)
Hot days
3.11
1.94
1.58
0.61
2.73
Cold days
-4.9
-1.01
-0.9
0.03
-1.4
Young and others, 2010; SADC RCCP, 2010
Projected changes in
frequency of hot and cold days
% Frequency 2060 % Frequency 2090
Hot days Cold days Hot days Cold days
40
0
1
30
31
0
2
22
42
1
2
28
40
0
2
27
31
1
2
22
nual temperature rose from 26.3oC in

1970 to 29.1oC in 2008 (SARDC and
HBS 2010). See Figure 5.7.
The trend shows an increase in the
number of warm spells and a decrease in
the extreme cold days in southern Africa
between 1960 and 2006 (Boko and others
2007). As shown in Table 5.2, the observed frequency of hot days per decade
between 1960 and 2006 has been increasing ranging from 0.61 percent per decade
for Tanzania to 3.11 percent per decade
for Angola. For cold days the frequency
is showing a decrease, with Angola decreasing by 4.9 percent per decade while
Malawi decreased by 1.01 percent per
decade in the same period.
Projected trends for the five countries studied shows continuous increase
in frequency of hot days with Mozambique showing a 28 percent increase by
2060 and 42 percent by 2090. A similar
trend is projected for the other countries
(see Table 5.2).
The increase in temperatures is expected to continue even if the greenhouse gas emissions were to be stopped
today. The temperatures in the region
are expected to warm by between 1.0C
and 3.0C by 2080 (IPCC 2014).
This means the Zambezi River Basin
will continue to experience warmer temperatures. As a result, the agricultural seasons may change and planting times
could vary for different crops. The Basin
area could attract more pests, and malaria
could spread to places where it is not endemic. Hotter temperatures could mean
heat stress and changes in natural ecosystems. This can change the productivity of
the rangeland, grazing, and food production. There will be challenges for agriculture, water, health and other key
socio-economic sectors if they do not
adapt to these changes.
Observed Changes in Rainfall
Characteristics
The changes in rainfall are best expressed as changes in intensity, extreme
rainfall events (storms) and changes in
the rainfall season (onset, cessation and
Figure 5.8
Actual and Predicted Future Rainfall in Gaborone, Botswana
Actual data for 1910 to 2000 and projection based on the IS92a IPCC climate change scenarios for the period up to 2080.
length). Overall, since 1950, the countries in the Zambezi Basin have witnessed a downward trend in rainfall.
This is in line with the findings of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014)
which indicates that rainfall years identified as below normal are becoming
more and more frequent.
Among the most notable climate
changes predicted to occur are a decrease in rainfall across the Basin,
which is estimated at 1015 percent.
Also predicted is an estimated decrease
in run-off and significant changes in
the seasonal pattern of rainfall across
the Basin, including delayed onsets, as
well as shorter and more intense rainfall events, implying an increase of frequency in floods and droughts
(SARDC and HBS 2010; Beilfuss
2012). The beginning of the rain season is becoming less predictable.
Heavy rain events are more frequent
and intense but episodes of drought
occur as well. In Botswana, rainfall is
expected to decrease by a significant
amount as shown in Figure 5.8.
Heavier rainfall will result in an increased incidence of flooding in many
areas. Reduced runoff aggravates existing water stress, reduces land quality,
lowers quantity of water available for
Figure 5.9
Decrease in Water Availability June-December

in the Zambezi River Basin Region in Mozambique
INGC, 2009
domestic and industrial use, and limits

hydropower production.
In the Zambezi Basin region in
Mozambique, the rainfall varies considerably within annual cycles with 60-80 percent of the annual precipitation falling in
the period from December to March. The
mean annual rainfall has decreased at an
average rate of 2.5mm per month per
decade, or 3.1 percent between 1960 and
2006. This annual decrease is largely due
to a reduction in December, January and
February rainfall, which has decreased by
6.3 mm per month, or 3.4 percent per
decade (INGC 2009). See Figure 5.9.
137
Figure 5.10
Rainfall Anomalies Across Central Mozambique

where Zambezi Basin is Located
INGC, 2009
138
NASA-EO, 2007
The unpredictable beginning of rain

season and the decrease of rainfall during December-February, which is the
peak crop season in Mozambique, has
significant implications on the agricultural sector which is mainly rain-fed and
practiced by smallscale, subsistence
farmers. This high variability in rainfall
(Fig 5.10) leads to recurrent floods and
droughts with heavy impacts on agricultural sectors, roads and rural livelihoods
in general. The coping capacity of the
communities is low therefore most of
extreme events associated with climate
variability become a disaster risk in
many parts of the Zambezi valley.
Despite a late start to the season,
most of southern Africa received heavy
rains from December 2011 into 2012,
resulting in flooding in several countries.
Tropical Cyclone Favio came ashore on
the coast of Mozambique on the morning of 22 February 2007 and as it travelled further inland, the storm brought
heavy rains to Zimbabwe (SANF 2012).
Observed and Predicted Changes in
Sea Level
While the melting of continental ice
sheets results in a rise in sea levels, the
primary contributor is thermal expansion due to increasing temperatures, and
this is well quantified. According to the
5th IPCC assessment report (2014), over
the period 1901-2010 the global mean
sea level rose by 19 centimetres and will
continue to rise during the 21th century.
The high scenario shows a rise of
10mm by 2030, 100mm by 2060 and
500mm by 2100 (IPCC 2007 in SARDC
and HBS 2010). This can cause permanent flooding of the sea coasts, estuaries
and deltas including the Zambezi Delta.
Sea level rise will present a threat to
the basin through salt water intrusion.
In the Zambezi Delta more than 240 sq
km of land could be impacted with inland saltwater penetration of about
28km by 2030 (Brundrit and Mavume
2009). Drinking water supplies for
coastal communities will be affected,
thus increasing the burden of women
who will have to fetch water from afar,
unless modern methods are put in place
for sustainable access to clean piped
water. Coastal infrastructure such as
roads and buildings will be at risk of
damage.
Marshland vegetation in the delta
could provide some natural resistance to
the intrusion. High flows from annual
flooding of the Zambezi River could
help to wash back some of the salt
water. Conservation measures of the
marshland vegetation and eco-hydraulic
management of the Cahora Bassa reservoir releases are required to ensure that
these restorative processes occur.
Observed Changes in
Climate Related Extreme Events
Frequency and severity of droughts,
floods and cyclones have increased in the
Zambezi Basin since the 1950s. Between

1988 and 1992 the sub-region experienced more than 15 drought events
(Boko 2007). Some notable droughts and
floods are shown in Table 5.3 below.
Map 5.1 shows that dry periods have
been frequent in the northern parts of
the basin in Angola and Zambia between 1995 and 2013, and also in
Malawi and northern Mozambique.
Map 5.1 shows that for the past 18
years most of the basin has witnessed
below average rainfall at least once during the first quarter of the year. The
Basin is expected to face drier and more
Table 5.3
prolonged drought periods. According

to several studies cited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
rainfall is expected to decrease by 10-15
percent over the Basin during the next
century (Beilfuss 2012).
As a result, a significant reduction in
the amount of water flowing through the
river system is expected and this affects
all eight basin countries. The water that
feeds the Zambezi River is expected to
decrease by between 26 and 40 percent in
another four decades, the study revealed.
High evaporation rates have reduced the
level of water reservoirs in most parts
Occurrence of Extreme Events in the Zambezi Basin
2014-2015
Tens of thousands of people in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe have been severely affected by
floods caused by Tropical Storm Chedza, which started in December and continued through
February 2015. Malawi has been hard hit by the current floods. More than 200 people have died
and 500,000 people displaced. In Mozambique more than 150,000 people have been affected and
about 6,000 in Zimbabwe.
2012-2013
Following poor performance in November, good rains were received in the first 10 days of December
but dry conditions resumed late January through to May in the southern parts of the Zambezi Basin.
2008-2009
The basin experienced flooding, which displaced thousands of people in Angola, Botswana, Malawi,
Namibia and Zambia.
2007
Floods induced by Cyclone Favio impacted on Mozambique and parts of Zimbabwe.
2005-2006
Parts of southern Africa received very heavy rains resulting in flooding that caused considerable
infrastructural damage, destroying schools, crops, roads and telecommunications.
2004-2005
Many parts of the Zambezi Basin received below-normal rainfall during the agricultural season.
Several riparian states declared national disasters.
2001-2003
Severe drought in the SADC region.
1999-2000
Cyclone Eline hit the region and widespread floods devastated large parts of the Limpopo basin
(southern and central Mozambique, southern-eastern Mozambique, parts of South Africa, Botswana
and Zimbabwe). In Mozambique alone this affected 2 million people with 650,000 forced to
abandon their homes.
1994-1995
Many countries in the SADC region were hit by a severe drought, surpassing the impact of the 19911992 droughts.
1991-1992
Worst drought in living memory experienced in southern Africa, excluding Namibia.
1986 1987
Drought conditions returned to the region.
1983
This year saw a particularly severe drought for the entire African continent.
1982
Most of sub-tropical Africa experienced drought.
1981 1982
Severe drought occurred in most parts of southern Africa.
1967 1973
This six-year period was dry across the entire region. Some records show a severe drought.
139
ZAMCOM, SADC and SARDC 2015, updated from SADC/SARDC and others, Southern Africa Environment Outlook, 2008; SADC/SARDC and
others, Zambezi River Basin Atlas of the Changing Environment, 2012; and SADC-FANR 2013.
Map 5.1 Occurrence of Severe Dry Periods during First Quarter of Year 1995-2012
140
of the Basin, including the Kariba and

Cahora Bassa dams.
When the rains do fall, this will be
more intense, triggering extreme flood
events. Recent floods and their impact
on the existing dams offer a possible
view of future challenges. In 2007,
heavy rains over the Zambezi basin
threatened the dam structure, forcing
authorities to open the sluice gates of
the Cahora Bassa Dam, affecting up to
half a million people, some displaced
and others had their crops destroyed.
In a case study on the floods and cyclones that struck Mozambique in 2000,
the Overseas Development Institute
warned that Cahora Bassa and Kariba,
which are the biggest dams on the Zambezi River, do not have the spillway capacity to cope with the very large floods
that occur on the river every 5-10 years
(Beilfuss 2012).
Contrary to the expected droughts in

parts of Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, Mozambique was dealing with
heavy rains and cyclones that frequently
hit the country. The consequence is fastrising river levels causing more harmful
floods to farmers and their valuable
farmland along the lower Zambezi
shores.
With its long coastline and about
40 percent of its population living and
working in coastal districts, Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to tropical storms. The results are already
visible with serious erosion destroying
local infrastructure and farmland.
Some parts of the Zambezi River
Delta frequently report alternating
droughts and floods over the past two
decades. A study by Brida and Sokona
(2013) reported that during the first part
of the century, Mozambique was domi-
Flood and Drought Events in the Zambezi River Basin - Mozambique Case
Figure 5.11
Brida and others, 2013
Table 5.4
Changes in Activity of Cyclones in Categories 4 and 5 for the

South West Indian Ocean Basin
Period
Basin
19751989
South West Indian
Number
141
19902004
Percentage
23
18
Number
50
Percentage
34
www.wmo.int
nated by flooding, particularly the

2000/01 season, followed by a period of
drought with a peak in 2005 (see Figure
5.11 below).
Other observed changes are in the
frequency of tropical cyclones. The
tropical cyclone season for the South
West Indian Ocean is from November
through April, with the highest frequency of occurrence expected in January and February. The presence of
cyclones in the region leads to extensive
flooding, resulting in economic losses
and destruction of infrastructure, crops
and livelihoods. The future looks similar
as observed data shows an increase in
the cyclone activity (Table 5.4).
Key Risks Predicted for the Zambezi
River Basin over the Next Century
The Zambezi Basin can expect a
significant warming trend of 0.3
- 0.6C.
Temperature increases across the

Basin will increase open-water
evaporation.
Multiple studies cited by IPCC
estimate that rainfall across the
basin will decrease by 1015 percent.
Significant changes in the seasonal pattern of rainfall across
the Basin are predicted,
including delayed onsets, with
shorter and more intense rainfall events.
All Zambezi Basin countries will
experience a significant reduction
in average annual stream flow.
Multiple studies estimate that the
Zambezi runoff will decrease by
2640 percent by 2050.
Increasing water stress is a serious concern in the semi-arid
parts of the Zambezi Basin
(Beilfuss 2010).
Impacts of Climate Change in the

Zambezi Basin
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has categorized
the Zambezi as the river basin exhibiting the worst potential for effects of
climate change among 11 major river
basins in Africa, due to the resonating
effect of the increase in temperature
and decrease in rainfall. Coupled with
a rise in sea level and extreme events
such as increased frequency and severity of droughts and floods, the impacts
of change in temperature and rainfall
are already being felt in the Zambezi
Basin. These impacts cut across all sectors including on water resources,
human health, food security, energy,
biodiversity, tourism, and livelihoods
in general.
Health Impacts of Climate Change
The Zambezi Basin is vulnerable to a
number of climate-sensitive diseases
which climate change and variability is
likely to exacerbate. These diseases include malaria, meningitis, cholera associated with floods and drought, and
heat stress.
142
Malaria
Climate plays a key role in the geographical distribution and seasonal abundance
of vector species that are responsible
for the transmission of human diseases
such as malaria. Changes in temperature,
precipitation, humidity, and wind patterns directly affect the reproduction,
development, and longevity of vector
species. In the Zambezi Basin, malaria
Table 5.5
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
is a major public health concern that has

claimed many lives, and statistics indicate an increasing trend in that direction.
This is especially acute in Malawi, where
cases increased from 3.7 million in 2000
to more than 5 million in 2009; Mozambique, from 3.2 million to more than 4
million in the same period; and Angola,
from 1.6 million to more than 2 million
(WHO 2011). See Table 5.5.
Climate experts have also predicted
an expansion of malaria to zones which
have been too cool for malaria, such as
the high veldt of Zimbabwe and highlands of Zambia, due to climate change
related rises in temperature (SARDC
and HBS 2010). It is predicted that the
malaria-carrying Anopheles female mosquito will spread to parts of Botswana
and Namibia where it has not been
found before (Lesolle 2012;
SADC/SARDC 2008).
A more positive scenario is predicted in that regard for areas such as
Kariba in Zimbabwe where current
temperatures are hot but are likely to
push above the range at which mosquitoes can survive. Scientists note that
most mosquitoes cannot survive above
40C (Chen 2006).
The impacts on health are felt differently by men and women due to the
perceived gender roles. Women tend to
be more exposed to heat stress than
men due to different roles. For example,
farming activities, firewood and water
collection are mostly done by women.
Pregnant women are also more sensitive to temperature increases than
those who are not pregnant, and they
Reported Malaria Cases in the Selected Countries in the Zambezi Basin

2000
2001
1 635 884 1 249 767

71 403
48 237
3 774 982 3 823 796
3 278 525 3 947 335
519 113
538 512
324 584
3 602 564 3 838 402
1 533 960
680 900
WHO, Climate Change and Health, 2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1 862 662 3 246 258 2 489 170 2 329 316 2 283 097
28 858
236 774
22 404
11 242
19 000
2 784 001 3 358 960 2 871 098 3 688 389 4 204 468
4 592 799 4 863 406 5 610 884 5 896 411
6 335
445 803
468 259
610 799
339 204
265 595
369 394 1 1379 411 11 898 627 1 1441 681 10 566 201
3 760 335 4 346 172 4 078 234 4 121 356 4 731 338
1 348 137 1 820 835 1 815 470 1 496 896 1 535 877
2007
2 295 136
16 983
4376870
6 155 082
172 024
5 769 646
4 248 295
1 154 519
2008
2009
2 151 072 2 221 076

17 886
14 878
4 580 226 5 455 423
4 831 491 4 310 086
128 531
81 812
3 812 350 3 812 350
3 080 301 2 976 395
1 008 846
736 897
tend not to cover themselves with mosquito nets, thus exposing themselves to
mosquito bites. A study carried out in
Mozambique established that pregnant
women are particularly vulnerable to
malaria as they are twice as appealing
to malaria-carrying mosquitoes as nonpregnant women (WHO 2005). The
study noted women in advanced stages
of pregnancy (above 28 weeks) produce
more exhaled breath (21 percent more
volume on average) than their non-pregnant counterparts. Strong human breath
helps mosquitoes to detect a host.
Meningitis
Another disease which has expanded

beyond its historical boundaries due to
climate change is meningitis. The
meningitis belt now includes Tanzania
and Zambia. Meningitis epidemics have
been reported in Angola, Mozambique,
Namibia and Zimbabwe (UNEP 2013).
Droughts are associated with low humidity and high temperatures, conditions that favour the transmission of
meningitis.
Implications of Extreme Events
Floods and Droughts
Associated with floods and cyclones are
health challenges including anxiety,
posttraumatic stress disorders and depression, mental health resulting from
loss of loved ones and property, and displacement. Cyclone Eline in 2000 was
the worst in living memory, with its associated floods. Southern parts of
Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
and Botswana were hardest hit, with two

million people affected in Mozambique
and 650,000 forced to abandon their
homes (Dube and Chimbari 2009;
SARDC and HBS 2010).
An IUCN report (2008) notes that
women and children are 14 times more
likely than men to die in a disaster such
as flooding. During Cyclone Eline, the
death rate was higher among women
than men (Brekke and others 2009 in
SARDC and HBS 2010). The reasons
given were that most women could not
swim and therefore drowned. In addition, some cultural norms inhibit
womens movement without men present, and therefore many women could
not move early enough. The lack of
early warning information is another impediment.
Increased floods, droughts and rise
in sea level may lead to movement of
143
people. Such nature-induced migrations
may lead to break up of families and
psychological stress, particularly where
families are displaced and have to live in
emergency or transitional
housing. Overcrowding, Table 5.6 Impact of Climate Change
Induced Floods 2000-2009
lack of privacy and the
collapse of regular rouTotal Affected
Killed
Country
tines and livelihood patAngola
591 509
297
terns can contribute to
Botswana
148 392
3
anger, frustration, vioMalawi
1 223 435
91
lence, and high risks of
6 225 126
Mozambique
1 012
sexually transmitted disNamibia
474 300
148
Tanzania
96 750
162
eases, with children and
Zambia
3 024 633
60
women the most vulnerZimbabwe
331 000
112
able (IUCN 2008). See
Table 5.6.
INGC 2009; Southern Africa Flood and Drought Network
2010; International Disaster Database EM-DAT 2011
144
As the frequency and severity of

floods increased over the past decade,
Mozambique has experienced a devastating situation with over 6 million people affected, while in Zambia more
than 3 million were impacted in various ways.
Apart from the forced migration
and the consequence health impacts,
cancerous diseases are also expected to
increase during heavy floods when toxic
contamination leaks from storage facilities or runoff into water from land containing toxic pollutants. Very little is
known about how such transfers will affect peoples exposure to these chemicalssome of which are known
carcinogensand its ultimate impact on
incidence of cancer. Coastal populations
such as in Mozambique are likely to be
affected as they use marine water and
the fish they eat would be contaminated
and toxic.
Table 5.7
Impact of Climate Change

Induced Drought 2000-2009
Country
Angola
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Killed
Total Affected
58
500
-
25 000
8 449 435
3 239 500
34 500
8 854 000
1 200 000
8 100 000
INGC 2009; Southern Africa Flood and Drought Network

2010; International Disaster Database EM-DAT 2011
Other challenges in the aftermath

of a disaster such as floods include food
insecurity. WHO (2005) reports that nutritional status partly determines the
ability to cope with the effect of natural
disasters. Women are more prone to nutritional deficiencies because of unique
nutritional needs, especially when pregnant or breastfeeding. In addition,
women in southern Africa usually carry
greater loads than men yet they have a
lower intake of calories as the cultural
norm is that men receive food first and
usually have more food than women
(WHO 2005).
The same report notes that for girls
and women, poor nutritional status is associated with an increased prevalence of
anaemia, pregnancy and delivery problems, increased rates of intrauterine
growth retardation, low birth weight and
pre-natal mortality. Due to iron deficiency the risk of women dying at childbirth can be increased by as much as 20
percent (FAO 2009).
While declining per capita food
production in the Zambezi Basin is
largely attributed to declining land holdings as well as land degradation, climateinduced drought has also contributed to
a significant decline in per capita food
production.
This inadequate per capita food
production has led to health impacts
and in worst cases, death. In Malawi,
500 people were killed and more than 8
million affected between the period
2000 and 2009 (Table 5.7).
Food security could be affected directly by an increase in global average
temperatures. Even small increases in
mean temperature of between 1 and
2C are projected to lead to variations in
crop productivity (Davis 2011). The
temperature changes could also affect
growing locations, the length of the
growing season, crop yields, planting
and harvest dates. In addition, higher
temperatures are likely to impact negatively on organic matter, thereby reducing soil nutrients as well as favouring the
spread of pests and pathogens.
Higher than normal temperatures

could result in reduction in livestock productivity by increasingly exceeding the
temperature thresholds above the thermal
comfort zone of livestock, which could
lead to behavioural and metabolic
changes such as altering growth rate, reproduction and ultimately mortality, as
well as increased prevalence of new animal diseases (Davis 2011). The vulnerability to climate change in the Zambezi
Basin is exacerbated by many factors including low capacity to adapt and heavy
reliance on agriculture for livelihoods.
the lower back, leading to Figure 5.12 Population with Increasing

early aging of the vertebral
Stress
column.
An average
household in most parts
of southern Africa use
100kg weight of water
which will be stressful to
obtain considering that the
water shortage is expected
to increase.
More than 120 million people will be water
stressed by 2055 with a
temperature change of 5 Dube and Chimbari, 2009
C in the worst-case scenario, while the least-case
scenario indicates that 60 million will be
affected at the same temperature (Dube
2009). The three colours in Figure 5.12 illustrate the different scenarios.
economies are therefore at risk of sig145
nificant episodic shocks and chronic
water scarcity and security. These can
have direct and severe impacts on
the economy, poverty, public health and
ecosystem viability. Figure 5.13 shows
the state of water availability in 1990
and the projected availability in 2025 for
selected Zambezi Basin States. Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe are projected to have water scarcity by 2025 if
temperatures continue to rise.
Climate Change Induced Water

Scarcity and Related Impacts
IPCC records predict that almost
all southern African countries are likely
to experience a reduction in stream
flow (Boko and others 2007). This results in reduced groundwater recharge,
and drying of wetlands and springs
which are source of water for most
communities in southern Africa.
Water-related diseases could be made
worse by increased rainfall variability
and high evaporation rates due to increased temperatures. An average of
about 65 percent of the rainfall in the
Zambezi Basin evaporates soon after it
occurs (Chenje 2000). The rate is likely
to increase with the predicted increase
in temperature in the area.
As climate change is ex- Figure 5.13 Current and Future Water Scarcity, Stress and Vulnerability in
pected to bring more drought
some ZRB States
conditions in most parts of
southern Africa, the burden of
fetching water from long distances several times within a day
will increase unless provision of
infrastructure is accelerated. According to a gender and health
analysis for southern Africa
(SARDC WIDSAA 2008), 30
percent or more of womens
daily energy intake is spent on
fetching water. The same report
notes that carrying heavy loads
over long periods and distances
causes cumulative damage to
the spine, the neck muscles and Digout, Delphine, based on a sketch by Philippe Rekacewicz; UNEP GRID-Arendal 2013; UNECA
Box 5.2
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE AFRICAS VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Key factors that increase the vulnerability of Africas population to the impacts of climate change and
climate variability include:
Heavy reliance on agriculture and other natural resources for livelihoods;
Limited technologies to cope with the impacts of climate change, such as irrigation technologies
that would make farmers less reliant on rain-fed agriculture;
The prevalence of dry lands, which may experience reduced yields or be pushed out of production by changes in rainfall patterns or shorter growing seasons;
Changes in rainfall patterns may transform additional productive land into dry land;
Countries with water shortage or poor water infrastructure may become water-stressed as
weather patterns become more erratic;
Limited capacity of governments and institutions to deal with the impacts of climate change and
to strengthen resilience of the population, especially vulnerable groups who are less resourced to
deal with the impacts of climate change.
The brain drain of qualified people can limit the ability of governments and institutions to respond; and,
Lack of access to capital, insurance cover and other safety nets following disasters.
UNEP 2013
146
Implications of Reduced Water

Flow and Increased Evaporation
According to IPCC (2007), it is estimated that the Zambezi River Basin will
experience changes in precipitation (decreasing by 10-20 percent), potential
evaporation (increasing by 10-25 percent), and runoff (decreasing between
26-40 percent). These hydrological
changes will directly affect the potential
output of hydroelectric facilities existing and possible future projects. For example, the water level of the Kariba
Dam dropped by 11.6 metres between
1981 and 1992, resulting in a reduction
of the dams capacity to generate hydropower. A reduction in flow levels
over the Victoria Falls of 35 percent
would cut annual power production by

21 percent and dry season production
by 32 percent (SADC and SARDC
2006).
Climate change simulations for the
Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme on
the Zambezi River projected a significant reduction in river flows (a decline
in mean monthly flow from 3.21109
cubic metres to 2.07109 cu m) and declining power production (a decrease in
mean monthly production from 780
GWh to 613 GWh (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012).
Increasing evaporation rates impact
on the sustainability of wetlands. The
loss of deltaic wetlands in the Zambezi
River Basin is estimated at15,845 sq km
over a 14-year period (Boko 2007). The
same report projects an increase of 5-8
percent of arid to semi-arid land in
southern Africa by 2080 using a range
of climate scenarios. Crop yields can be
affected, dropping by as much as 10-20
percent in some parts of the sub-region.
See Box 5.2 on vulnerabilities.
Due to the limitations noted in Box
5.2, the Zambezi Basin is expected to
experience the challenges summarised in
Table 5.8.
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Tanzania
Decrease in rainfall
Increase in impacts by cyclones
Localised floods
Overflowing of large rivers
Lakeshore flooding
Decline on lake levels
Decreased / Varying river flows
Wildfires
Landslides in mountainous areas
Sea level rise
Salt water intrusion
Water scarcity
Biodiversity loss
Vulnerable sectors
Namibia
Increased incidence of droughts
Coral reef bleaching
Health / Disease outbreaks

Infrastructure
Coastal ecosystems, cities
Fisheries
Agriculture and food security
Livestock
Tourism
Urbanization
Vulnerability context
Mozambique
Malawi
Global warming and climate change

impacts and vulnerabilities
Botswana
Climate Change Related Challenges, Vulnerable Sectors and Vulnerability in the Zambezi Basin
Angola
Challenges associated with climate variability, global warming and climate change
Table 5.8
Poor infrastructure
Gender equality
Dependence on climate sensitive resources
Poor water access by population
Poor health status
HIV and AIDS
Adapted from Global Environment Change and Human Security 2008; National Adaptation Plans of Action
147
Responses to Climate Change Impacts

Adaptation Strategies
The 5th IPCC assessment report notes
that regardless of future emissions, the
world is already committed to further
warming due to past emissions by developed countries. Due to the vulnerability
of the Basin to climate change impacts,
adaptation is a necessity and this position
has been adopted by SADC. Adaptation
to global warming requires both shortand long-term approaches to managing
climate risks. In the short term, integrating climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction will help to withstand shocks to
Box 5.3
148
RESPONSE TO MALARIA OUTBREAK
Partners in the Roll Back Malaria initiative (WHO, UNICEF,

UNDP and the World Bank) have developed a new early warning and response approach that includes seasonal forecasts and
climate monitoring as well as vulnerability assessment, case surveillance, and response planning (Connor and others 2007). The
four components allow planning and preparedness for epidemics, so that response activities can be implemented in the
right place at the right time.
The Roll Back Malaria initiative aims to identify stakeholders, consolidate research, and strengthen malaria control through
support for the development of strong national and regional
health systems. Under the initiatives targets endorsed by African
countries in 2000, national malaria control services are expected
to detect 60 percent of malaria epidemics within two weeks of
onset and to respond to 60 percent of epidemics within two
weeks of their detection.
The early warning system for malaria has been introduced
in Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe. In
Botswana, routine vulnerability monitoring and regular assessments of drug efficacy are done at key sites. With this early
warning system, if an epidemic looks likely ahead of malaria
season, emergency containers with mobile treatment centres and
necessary medical supplies are prepared. Zambia has reduced
incidences of reported malaria cases by reviving the indoor
residual spraying programme as well as provision of insecticidetreated nets.
Current malaria control strategies rely mostly on individuals
and communities taking action themselves to reduce mosquito
breeding sites, sleep under mosquito nets, welcome spray teams,
and treat symptoms of malaria with anti-malaria drugs, either at
home or at nearby health facilities. These strategies succeed only
when communities understand the causes of malaria and how
to prevent and treat the disease.
SARDC and HBS 2010
human security and economic development from which recovery can be costly
(IPCC 2014). Communities of the Zambezi Basin have a long history of adapting
to climate-related events such as floods
and droughts. These however need to be
revived and strengthened as the frequency
and severity of the events have exceeded
the usual coping ranges. There is need to
compliment the traditional strategies with
new technologies suitable to vulnerable
communities, combining this with indigenous knowledge systems.
Most Basin States have adopted increasingly comprehensive development
plans with ambitious social and economic development objectives. They
have attempted to move beyond the
narrow objective of poverty reduction
to encompass wider objectives of accelerated growth, employment creation,
provision of water, sanitation, health
and education needs within the framework of sustainable development. Several
countries have adopted national climate
resilience strategies, and some initiatives are
underway to reduce the impact of the spread
of malaria, as shown in Box 5.3.
Disaster Risk Reduction in the

Management of Climate Change
Induced Extreme Events
The Zambezi River Basin has many communities living in flood-prone areas such
as the lower Shire in Malawi, Eastern Region in Namibia, the Zambezi delta in
Mozambique, the Muzarabani district in
Zimbabwe, and the Kazungula district in
Zambia. In these areas both structural
and non-structural measures of flood
management strategies are being practiced (SARDC and HBS 2010).
Structural measures include as the
construction of dams and weirs. Plans are
underway to build the Batoka dam mainly
for hydroelectric power but also to serve
as a flood management structure. The
non-structural measures range from flood
forecasting to rescue operations, defining
areas to settle as well as traditional ways
of flood management. Data collection of
rainfall and discharge from rivers is done
Box 5.4
BIRDS AS INDICATORS OF RAIN OR FLOODS
Some informants interviewed during the site visits mentioned that when a bird known
as dzvotsvotsvo (rain bird) starts to call, this warns them that heavy rains will fall in the
next hour or two. Those herding cattle then start going back home and those who had
crossed rivers would start crossing back as floods may occur.
One informant reported that when nyenganyenga (swallows) lay eggs on raised patches
in the river valley, that is a sign of floods approaching. Farmers then avoid planting in
the floodplains. The opposite is true when the Swallows breed on the ground under
cover of grasses and reeds, signifying low rainfall to drought conditions. Farmers would
then do early planting in river valleys and wetlands as well as growing drought-tolerant
crops such as sorghum, rapoko and pearl millet on the greater part of the field.
Another informant mentioned that if chickens wander around during the rains it
means that the rain is not going to stop soon. They can expect drizzle that can last for
two or three days, what they call mubvumbi in Zimbabwe. Floods are likely to occur in
the low-lying areas. They will then prepare by moving to high grounds.
SARDC IMERCSA 2015
149
by the relevant national agencies. Other

sources of information are satellite observations, forecasts from other institutions,
information from the local communities
and local authorities.
Dissemination of information is
normally through newspapers, radio, television, telephone, internet, and awareness programmes by governments and
non-governmental organizations. Multisectoral meetings on flood management, coordinated by the civil
protection agencies are well attended
and positive contributions are made.
According to a mapping survey carried out by a SARDC research team in
flood-prone areas of Muzarabaani in
Zimbabwe, Kazungula in Zambia and
Katima Mulilo in Namibia, communities
suggested the need for an integrated approach to incorporate traditional knowledge in disaster risk reduction (SARDC
2015). Communities use effective indicators such as birds, insects and atmosphere conditions as very effective means
of early warning and forecasting. Box

5.4 presents some of the indicators used
by communities in the Zambezi Basin.
Another effective traditional flood
management strategy is the Kuomboka
practiced in Western Zambia (Box 5.5).
Here the Lozi King leads the people in
an annual migration out of the floodplains to higher ground.
Box 5.5
KUOMBOKA CEREMONY
Kuomboka moving out of the water

is an annual ceremony where thousands of people
gather to dance, feast
and watch the royal
barge rowed by
dozens of oarsmen beneath a giant replica elephant, signifying the start of the flooding season. This is the traditional signal for local people to follow the king in
escaping the rising waters in the Barotse floodplains
(SARDC and HBS 2010).
Table 5.9
150
Main Adaptation Activities, Interventions and Delivery Methods
Adaptation goal/
Expected outcomes
Main line intervention and delivery
Minimize physical exposure to

climate hazards
Flood control measures such as dams, levees, early warning systems, improved
drainage, river re-routing, improved land management, eg watershed afforestation
to manage runoff, preservation of wetland systems to manage runoff
Coping with drought measures such as improved water management/water
harvesting
Frost control measures such as watering or covering crops/plants at night
Migration or relocation away from flood zones, coastal areas
Avoid or reduce potential for

adverse impact
Improved water treatment to avoid contamination from floodwaters,

salinization
Reducing dependence on rain-fed agriculture
Enhance adaptive capacity and

resilience (address determinants
of adaptive capacity)
Increase wealth/income especially of rural poor through economic

diversification, access to micro-finance
Modify climate-system relationship such as through manipulation of thresholds
or coping ranges, dependence on climate (eg reducing dependence on rain-fed
agriculture)
Improve ecosystem integrity through reduced siltation and erosion control, fire
control, eradication of invasive species, avoid overgrazing, rehabilitate
degraded areas
Improve planning to take

changing climate into account to
avoid an adaptation deficit and
remove any barriers to adaptation
Modify planning process to integrate climate change and adaptation into

sectoral and national plan (mainstreaming)
Remove barriers through policy review and/or development of new policies to
facilitate adaptation
Create and manage information

to facilitate adaptation
Build knowledge bases through research, monitoring, extension and outreach,

early warning systems to improve adaptation planning and implementation
Build capacity in communities to take climate change into account
Global Environment Fund, 2007
For drought, both traditional and

conversional strategies are being used,
including drought insurance. In Malawi
the index-based weather insurance
against drought for smallholder farmers
has proved successful. In the first year,
892 farmers bought insurance as part of
a bundle that included a loan for inputs
for groundnuts production. The following year the scheme took in maize farmers, bringing the total to 1,700 and
stimulating interest among banks, finance, processing and trading companies, and input suppliers (IPCC 2015)
This is similar to the safety net used
traditionally in Zimbabwe to cushion
communities in times of drought, called
zunde ramambo (the chief s granary). This
is a traditional concept that boosts the
chiefs grain reserves which can then be
used to help those in need, and also feed
visitors when the chief hosts a function
at the compound. The concept was dis-
rupted by the colonial policies of land

apportionment and the undermining of
the traditional leaders authority in the
communities. However, zunde ramambo
has remained an active preparation and
response to drought years, and a very
important factor in disaster risk reduction. Some common interventions and
responses to impacts of climate change
are shown in Table 5.9.
Policy Options
In response to the impacts of global
warming and resulting changes in climate,
the Zambezi River Basin countries have
begun to apply a number of policy response options. These include the establishment of disaster risk reduction and
disaster management programmes, early
warning systems, crop research into
drought-resistant varieties, and development of actions plans for climate change
adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation.
Box 5.6
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN MOZAMBIQUE
The establishment of the National Disaster Management Institute (INGC) was a change in approach to
disaster management, from reaction to preparedness and risk reduction.
Under the national disaster policy, preparedness for floods is facilitated by a flood early warning system.
This provides forecasts of flood risk, detects and monitors flooding, and puts out flood warnings when
necessary, to ensure a coordinated response.
The flood early warning system is coordinated by the National Directorate of Water, together with the
National Institute of Meteorology and the National Disaster Management Institute. This collaboration reflects the essential integration of hydrologic and climate information needed to understand and predict
floods and to manage an effective response.
If flooding is expected, a flood team is mobilized whose role is to monitor the situation, receive and
analyze information, recommend responses, ensure collaboration between the different bodies involved,
and coordinate activities at central and local levels.
The INGC works closely with the SADC Climate Service Centre (formerly Drought Monitoring Centre).
This centre works with Regional Water Administrations (RWAs), which monitor water levels and provide
data to the National Institute of Meteorology.
The RWAs issue flood warnings when necessary, to district and local authorities and also to the media
(radio, television, and newspapers). District and local authorities, civil protection units, in collaboration with
the Red Cross and other non-government organizations are responsible for the dissemination of information, and in particular warnings, at the local level, and for the evacuation of people before floodwaters rise.
Mozambique now has a tropical cyclone warning system, distinct from the flood early warning system. This
informs people of the probable arrival of a tropical cyclone at least 48 hours in advance. Color-coded messages,
including flags, are used to warn the population. A TV studio devoted to weather forecasting is also in use.
SARDC and HBS 2010; INGC 2013
Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia,

Zambia and Zimbabwe now have National Disaster Management programmes in places. While other places
also face significant impacts during
floods, Mozambique is often hit the
hardest due to its geographical position being at the lower receiving
end of the Zambezi and other rivers.
Box 5.6 explains how the Mozambique
disaster management programme
operates.
Besides national, regional and
global approaches to deal with climate
change issues, the coordination of
adaptation strategies at Basin level will

be handled by the permanent Zambezi
Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) which was established in 2014,
resulting from the SADC Protocol on
Shared Watercourses. The main objective of ZAMCOM is to promote equitable and reasonable utilization of the
water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development
thereof.
ZAMCOM, whose secretariat is
based in Harare, Zimbabwe, is expected
to strengthen cooperation by member
151
Table 5.10
152
Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agricultural Sector
Crop rotations and

farming system design
Improving crop varieties;

Featuring perennials in crop rotations;
Making greater use of temporary cover crops between successive crops or between rows
of plantations;
Avoiding bare fallows;
Enhancing plant and animal productivity and efficiency;
Adopting farming systems with reduced reliance on external inputs such as rotations that
include legume crops.
Nutrient and manure

management
Improving nitrogen-use efficiency, reducing leaching and offsite N2O emissions;

Adjusting fertilizer application to crop needs through synchronization and using slowrelease fertilizers;
Applying N when crop uptake is guaranteed;
Placing N into soil to enhance accessibility;
Avoiding any N-surplus applications;
Managing tillage and residues;
Reducing tillage or no-till.
Livestock
management, pasture
and fodder supply
improvement
Reducing lifetime emissions;

Breeding dairy cattle for lifetime efficiency;
Breeding and management to increase productivity;
Implementing deep rooting species;
Introducing legumes into grasslands to enhance productivity;
Preventing methane emissions from manure heaps and tanks;
Producing biogas;
Composting manure.
Maintaining fertile soils

and restoration of
degraded land
Initiating re-vegetation;
Improving fertility by nutrient amendment;
Applying substrates such as compost and manure;
Halting soil erosion and carbon mineralization by soil conservation techniques such as
reduced tillage, no tillage, contour farming, strip cropping and terracing;
Retaining crop residues as covers;
Conserving water;
Sequestering Co2 into the soil as soil organic matter.
IPCC 4th Assessment Report
states in the sustainable utilization of resources and this includes monitoring

implementation of disaster management strategies.
Several policies and plans are in
place to support the Zambezi Basins resilience to climate change, such as the
Regional Strategic Action Plan on Integrated Water Resources Management
(RSAP III). The objective of RSAP III
(2011-2015) is to strengthen the enabling environment for the governance,
management and development of
SADC regional water resources through
the application of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRIM) at regional, river basin, national and
community levels. RSAP IV is being developed to cover the period 2016-2020.
Other SADC programmes that
contribute to studies on climate
change and water are relevant to the

Zambezi River Basin, such as those of
the Water Demand Management
(WDM) programme and civil society
institutions.
While SADC prioritises adaptation,
which provides immediate benefits to
the already vulnerable communities,
mitigation strategies are also being explored. Supporting adaptation, the 4th
IPCC Assessment Report made important recommendations on how
agriculture could mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions (Smith and others 2007).
These recommendations include crop
rotation and farming system design;
nutrient and manure management;
livestock management, pasture and
fodder supply improvement; maintaining fertile soils; and restoration of degraded land. See Table 5.10.
Regional and Global Climate

Agreements
A SADC climate change strategy for the
water sector was developed in 2011 that
recommends adaptation actions (SADC
2011). In response, SADC member
states have developed or are developing
Table 5.11
specific climate change strategies and

policies that with the regional and global
instruments.
The SADC Climate Services Centre
(CSC) was established in 1990 (formerly
the Drought Monitoring Centre) as part
of an initiative by African Governments
to address calamities arising from the re-
Adaptation and Mitigation Initiatives in Basin States
Adaptation
Mitigation
Supporting Measures
Risk and Disaster

Management
Energy
Capacity Building
Malawi Implementing the National

Framework on Climate Change
Mitigation; Developing and
implementing projects on Clean
Development Mechanism;
Formulating National
Appropriate Mitigation Actions.
Malawi Planning capacity-building

for implementation of the
Convention and Kyoto Protocol
Malawi Formulation of
a Climate Change
Policy.
Namibia Capacity development,

research, monitoring, public
awareness and
technology needs; Identification
of financial and technology
needs required for adaptation
and mitigation actions;
Participation National CC
awareness raising and capacity
development workshop
Namibia Studies on
assessments of the
source and sinks of
greenhouse gases in
Namibia.
Malawi Implementing
the National
Framework on
Climate Change
Adaptation.
Namibia An overview
of the vulnerability
of Namibia to
climate change;
Climate Change Risk
Assessments such
as Cuvelai Drainage
project.
Tanzania Development
of climate change
scenarios;
Analysis of rainfall
and temperature
trends; Evaluate
policy options to
analyse the
feasibility, viability,
cost and benefits of
the alternative
options.
Zimbabwe Finalising
the Climate Change
Response strategy
and discussions for
a climate change
policy are underway.
REDD
Tanzania National REDD
Programme to establish
financing mechanisms and
monitoring and verification
systems;
REDD policy development and
inclusion into UNFCCC
framework
Land Use, Land Use Change,
Forestry (LULUCF) and Carbon
Markets
Malawi Developing a National
Framework on Management of
future climate change in
agriculture, forestry, land, water,
fisheries;
Planned Activities include
carbon sequestration and
carbon trading programmes.
Tanzania Greenhouse Gas
inventory for five modules
energy, agriculture, waste,
LULUCF, and industrial
processes.
Tanzania Assess the capacity of the

national meteorological agency
to participate in systematic
climate data observation and
station networks;
Programme on awareness for
policy makers and the general
public on impacts of climate
change.
Others
Zambia National
Implementation
Plans (NIPS) and
Management of
Persistent Organic
Pollutants (POPs)
under the Stockholm
Convention
Zambia National Mitigation Analysis

and Institutional Capacity
Building Programme; National
capacity self-assessment for
implementation of Rio
Convention for effective
implementation of UNCBD,
UNCCD and UNFCCC;
Comprehensive national climate
change awareness program.
Sectoral Planning and Implementation

Malawi
Climate Adaptation for Rural Livelihoods and Agriculture - Adaptation activities in agriculture, water, forestry, fisheries, energy.
National Framework on Management of future climate change in Malawi in agriculture, forestry, land, water, fisheries.
Namibia Scoping to mainstream Climate Change Adaptation considerations throughout the existing support programmes.
Tanzania Development of National Action Plan on Climate Change.
Assess Vulnerability and Adaptation and also focus on assessing the impact of climate change on economic sectors.
Zambia
Address adaptation priorities in the food security and public health sectors; impact of climate change to short, medium and
long term development priorities in the FNDP; and Designation of a CDM national authority.
Zimbabwe A project was established to develop and pilot a range of long-term adaptation measures in the agriculture sector to reduce the
vulnerability of smallholder farmers and pastoralists in rural Zimbabwe to current and future climate change related shocks.
This also seeks to develop long-term policy-oriented approaches for adaptation to climate change among rural men and
women in agriculture.
IPCC 4th Assessment Report
153
154
current extremes of climate variations.

This centre has contributed significantly
to the reduction of negative impacts of
adverse climate. According to the
SADC regional strategic plan, the
RISDP, the target beneficiaries of CSC
include diverse end-users, who are expected to apply climate and hydro-meteorological information and products
in the various weather-sensitive economic sectors such as agriculture,
health, energy, water resources management, disaster management, transport
and others. Decision-makers and policymakers in various government departments, the private sector and NGOs are
also expected to use the products and
services to devise strategies for addressing the impacts of climate extremes.
The Southern Africa Science Service
Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive
Land Management (SASSCAL) has been
launched as a joint initiative by Namibia,
Angola, Botswana, South Africa and
Zambia. Its objective is to support crossborder research and enhance regional
scientific capacity in order to increase the
capacity of SADC countries to respond
effectively to the challenges of climate
change. The initiative includes land
degradation as this compromises the
wellbeing of the region and its people,
especially in rural areas.
SADC is implementing a five-year
programme on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation jointly with the
Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (COMESA) and the
East African Community (EAC). The
programme aims to address the impacts
of climate change in the COMESAEAC-SADC region through adaptation
and mitigation actions that are peoplecentred, reduce vulnerability, and foster
regional integration. This tripartite programme is expected to support member
states in their efforts to mitigate and
adapt to climate change impacts.
All Zambezi Basin states are Parties
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
and the Convention to Combat Deser-
tification (UNCCD), and have ratified

or acceded to the relevant protocols related to these conventions.
Governments have undertaken
mandatory activities pursuant to obligations under the UNFCCC. These include
participation in UNFCCC processes; Initial communication on greenhouse gas inventories; mitigation and adaptation
measures; and development of National
Adaptation Programmes of Action. Governments are in different phases of implementing national policy and
communication strategies (Brida, 2013).
Botswana Malawi, Namibia and Zimbabwe are at advanced stages of development of national climate change policies,
strategy and action plans.
An assessment of the national communications to the UNFCCC suggest
that countries are already applying a suite
of measures to improve their energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity.
Other Non-Policy Strategies

Adequate and reliable data and
information
Evidence-based decision making is possible only if adequate and reliable data
exist on the issues at stake. Strengthening
the data and information base on environment and health linkages, including
gender disaggregated data and information, would therefore enable adequate assessment and subsequent use of the
findings to inform planning, budgeting,
reviewing policy performance and evaluating progress towards the desired environment and health outcomes.
Capacity building in climate science
The Zambezi Basin and the rest of
southern Africa relies heavily on global
models for predicting future impacts of
climate change. The main challenge is
the unavailability of local data as well as
limited capacity to develop the climatic
models at local level. There is therefore
need for capacity-building in climate science in the Zambezi Basin states.
Strategies to fit within national

priorities
Adaption or mitigation strategies such as
low carbon pathways have to fit into the
specific national circumstances, as the
nature of these pathways will depend on
resources, capacities and governance realities.
The need to carefully manage
mitigation options
Mitigation options should be carefully
managed so that they do not introduce
new risks to development. For example
the adoption of new technologies or crops
to reduce or sequester carbon can undermine the development opportunities and
climate resilience of vulnerable social
groups. Hence a robust decision-making
process is needed to avert these risks.
Integration of water, energy, and
food nexus in view of climate change
As climate change impacts on all sectors,
there is need for integration of water, energy and food security in the strategies to
address climate change impacts. Climate
change challenges have prompted calls
from stakeholders for a greater role for
river basin organizations such as ZAMCOM to enable them to drive the waterenergy-food nexus approach.
The need for climate-proofing of

development strategies
Current development strategies must
be climate-proofed. There is no single
approach to adaptation. Countries in
the Zambezi Basin and the rest of
southern Africa have little climate data
information to use in assessing the
overall risks and vulnerabilities triggered by climate factors. Data and information are essential to develop
accurate and robust climate-resilient
strategies and policies, and national and
sectoral development plans. Another
challenge is that development planning
tends to take place at a national level
and may not take account of the impacts of climate change and variability
in particular localities. National policies
can inadvertently disregard or undermine cultural, traditional and context
specific practices that support local
adaptation to climate change.
Need for financial support and
technology transfer
Funding support and technology transfer are needed to improve the current
level of adaptation in the Zambezi Basin,
and to protect rural and urban livelihoods, societies and economies from climate change impacts.
155
CHAPTER LINKAGES
Chapter 1 Overview
Climate change and variability is increasingly contributing to the threats to human and environmental
health through atmospheric pollution and other impacts, including damage to the natural environment.
CHAPTER 2 WATER RESOURCES
Climatic factors resulting in droughts and floods concern the Zambezi River Basin where disparities in
the temporal and spatial variations in water supply are a common feature. Integrated water resources
management becomes increasingly important as a strategy to conserve and manage water.
CHAPTER 3 LAND AND AGRICULTURE
Climate change can impact on food security and cropping as temperatures change, unless this is recognized
and methodologies reassessed. Agriculture is a major source of pollution through the use of herbicides,
fertilizers and pesticides, which find their way into the soil and the air, especially when applied as aerial
sprays, hence contributing in a small way to global warming.
156
CHAPTER 4 BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS

The Zambezi Basin is under threat of species and habitat loss due to climate change. Natural resources
are changing and relocating under the impacts of climate change, as their habitat alters, animals migrate,
vegetation relocates, coral reefs and other species are lost. Forests and woodlands provide an important
sink for greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. One of the efforts towards climate change abatement
is to maintain and establish forests and woodlands.
CHAPTER 6 ENERGY
Renewable energy plays a critical role in resilience to climate change, but reduced flow resulting from climate-induced change of rainfall patterns also impacts on hydropower generation.
CHAPTER 7 URBANIZATION AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
Settlement patterns are to a large extent determined by weather and climate patterns. With sea level rise
caused by climatic change there are fears that stretches of coastal settlements will be inundated.
CHAPTER 8 TOURISM
The impacts of climate change on the tourism sector could intensify as global greenhouse gas emissions
increase. Reduced flows over the Victoria Falls due to the changing climate would affect plant and wildlife,
but also diminish the visual appeal of the world heritage site impacting negatively on the sites vibrant
tourism activities.
CHAPTER 9 INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
Air pollution that arises from economic activities of industrial development has affected air quality
throughout the basin.
CHAPTER 10 SCENARIOS
Atmospheric pollution is a worsening problem in the basin. There is need for timely interventions through
appropriate policy and strategic interventions.
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ZAMCOM, SADC Water Division and SARDC. Harare, Gaborone
ENERGY
Introduction
The Zambezi River Basin is endowed
with numerous sources of energy such
as coal in Botswana, Mozambique and
Zimbabwe; gas in Mozambique,
Namibia and Tanzania; hydro in Angola,
DRC, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; oil in Angola; and uranium in
Namibia. Oil exploration is underway in
the Basin countries with high prospects
in Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and offshore in the Atlantic and Indian oceans.
Uranium exploration is underway in
Botswana and Zimbabwe. Non-conventional renewable energy resources such
as wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and
small hydro are also distributed across
the region (Musaba and others 2013).
Energy plays a pivotal enabling role
in the development agenda of any region
and the Zambezi Basin is not an exception. The post-2015 global agenda includes initiatives such as Sustainable
Energy for All (SE4ALL) which seeks to
achieve universal access to sustainable and
environmentally friendly energy services
by 2030. Lack of reliable energy sources
is often cited as a handicap to growth and
poverty reduction in any country or region (NEPAD and AU 2011).
This chapter discusses energy
issues in the Zambezi River Basin.
Responses at national and regional levels
are also analysed in order to provide recommendations on the appropriate policy and institutional arrangements.
Issues discussed in the chapter include
energy security, energy equity as well as
environmental sustainability.
Pursuant to a decision of the 12th Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (Declaration
Assembly/AU/Decl.1 (XII), the Program
Box 6.1
ENERGY DEFINITIONS
Energy Security is the effective management of primary energy supply from domestic and external
sources, the reliability of energy infrastructure, and the
ability of energy providers to meet current and future
demand
Energy Equity means the accessibility and affordability of energy supply.
Environmental Sustainability encompasses the
achievement of supply and demand-side energy efficiencies and the development of energy supply from
renewable and other low-carbon sources.
World Energy Issues Monitor 2014
for Infrastructure Development in Africa

(PIDA) was launched by the African
Union Commission working with the UN
Economic Commission for Africa
(ECA), the African Development Bank
(AfDB), and the New Partnership for
Africas Development (NEPAD). This
recognizes the fact that energy and other
infrastructure unlock opportunities to
strengthen agricultural, mining and industrial development, trade facilitation, and
improved quality of life for both urban
and rural communities (AfDB 2012).
PIDA provides a framework for addressing the infrastructure deficit in Africa
through integrated planning and development at regional and inter-regional levels.
Energy Security
The Zambezi Basin is facing a daunting
task of bridging the energy access gap,
and has been experiencing a power supply deficit since 2007. Table 6.1 shows
159
Table 6.1
Total Energy Production and Use for Basin States

Kilotonnes of Oil Equivalent
2000
Country
2002
Use Production
Angola
7 429
Botswana
1 836
Mozambique
7 173
Namibia
1 019
Tanzania
13 390
Zambia
6 247
Zimbabwe
9 886
SADC Average 18 080
2004
Use Production
43 680 8 180
1 127 1 916
7 258 7 645
286 1 169
12 691 14 928
5 925 6 636
8 618 9 710
24 272 18 321
2006
Use Production
51 434 9 530
1 119 1 857
7 763 8 375
298 1 399
13 939 16 190
6 215 6 998
8 643 9 287
25 193 15 987
Use Production
57 610 9 886
1 018 1 962
9 045 8 742
323 1 538
15 053 17 841
6 436 7 388
8 611 9 653
27 591 16 306
79 993
1 055
10 698
313
16 360
6791
8 678
30 274
2008
2009
Use Production
11 375
2 171
9 389
1 840
18 957
7 612
9 506
23 596
Use Production
105 777 11 896

1 037 2 048
11 528 9 766
324 1 713
17 470 19 616
7 034 7 856
8 533 9 514
33 633 23 219
100 958
938
11 918
329
18 046
7 241
8 530
33 194
SADC 2012
160
cooking or lighting, and others for agricultural and other productive activities.
FAO further notes that biomass fuels
are locally free in cash terms, but have
a cost of much time and physical effort,
usually by children and women.
Table 6.2 shows the energy mix for
basin states at household level, highlighting the heavy reliance on fuelwood.
Increasing poverty in urban areas has
forced many people to turn to charcoal
and fuelwood to meet their domestic
household needs (UNEP 2002). At the
beginning of the millennium, studies
showed that the majority of Zambias
fuel wood was converted into charcoal,
some 430 sq km of woodland every year
produced more than 100,000 tonnes of
charcoal (Chenje 2000). The 2008 statistics for Malawi showed that about 90
percent of the population used wood
for fuel and charcoal production, accounting for 88.5 percent of the countrys energy requirements (Gregory and
others 2012).
that most Basin states use more energy

than they produce, suggesting that many
countries rely on energy imports. The
SADC region as a whole has suffered
shortages and the energy gap is widening as demand grows, although their are
many initiatives to increase supply. The
main uses of energy in the Basin include
domestic (cooking, heating and lighting), industry (heating and cooling), and
agriculture (tilling, irrigation).
The biggest source of energy for the
Zambezi Basin is biomass fuel derived
from living organisms but traditionally
from wood (used directly as fuel wood
or as charcoal), dung and agricultural
residues. Natural forests, which comprise 75 percent of the land area in the
Basin, provide the bulk of the fuelwood
and charcoal used by the majority of the
population. FAO (2000) notes that
households and communities in rural
areas in developing countries typically
rely on diverse sources of energy
using one fuel for heating, another for
Table 6.1
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC 2012
Fuels Used for Cooking and Access to Modern Fuels (as % of Total Population
Electricity
0.2
7.2
1.2
0.8
29.3
0.3
15.8
16.8
32.6
Gas Kerosene Charcoal

51.9
45.8
0
1.4
5.7
0.2
0
0
0
18.7
3.3
0
0.5
0.1
2.3
0
0
0.2
7.2
0.4
0.6
19
24.5
37.4
0.1
Wood Dung Coal Other

28.6
43.4
91.4
84
62.3
77.6
59.5
54.3
66.8
0.4
0.1 0.1
0
0
0.2 12.6
0.3
0
0
0.1 0.2
0
0
0.1 0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.7
0.5
0
0.2
0.1
Modern Fuels
Year
52.1
56.2
1.2
2.7
35.1
2.8
15.8
16.8
32.8
2006-07
2006
2006
2003
2006-07
2007-08
2007
2010
2005-06
Box 6.2
LUSAKA ENERGY OUTLOOK
In Lusaka energy sources for the industrial sector include coal, wood, diesel and electricity while residential sector relies on fuelwood and electricity. Throughout Zambia
urban and industrial use of fuelwood and charcoal make the greater portion of biomass
demand, most of the charcoal is used in urban centres.
In the 1980s in order to meet energy demand, almost 2,000 ha of forest were felled
annually. Lusaka experienced almost 100 percent increase in electricity demand during
the 1994 to 2004 period. During 2004/05 the domestic sector was the major energy
consumer.
Of over 200,000 households, 54 percent used charcoal and 44 percent used electricity
while the remainder relied on fuelwood and kerosene. Burning of biomass is a major
source of stationary air pollution in the city.
Figure 6.1 Distribution of Households with to Access Electricity in Lusaka by Ward
SAPP Annual Report 2013
161
Figure 6.2
Growing Demand for Electricity in Lusaka

1994-2004
Considering the heavy demand by the domestic sector for electricity, the latest Lusaka Environment Outlook report has recommended promoting community awareness of electricity
use and encourages the use of solar alternatives where possible. Lusaka industries can also
benefit from adopting cleaner technologies.
ECZ 2008
Main Energy Issues in the

Zambezi Basin
162
Accessibility and Affordability of

Energy Supply across the Population
Electricity in the Zambezi River Basin is
generated mainly from coal and hydroelectric resources. Hydropower production is an important economic sector and
hydropower production is dominated by
Cahora Bassa and Kariba. The Zambezi
Table 6.3
Basin is therefore an important source for

hydropower in the region. The only river
in southern Africa that has the potential
to surpass the Zambezi in power production is the Congo (Chenje 2000).
The hydropower production sector
is a major water user due to the evaporation from hydropower reservoirs
(SADC and ZRA 2007).
A total capacity of 4,684MW has
been developed in the Zambezi Basin,
of which 75 percent is on the Zambezi
River, producing an average of almost
33,000GWh per year. Of the total developed capacity, five percent is in
Malawi, 45 percent in Mozambique, 36
percent in Zambia and 14 percent in
Zimbabwe (SADC and ZRA 2007).
Natural gas is increasingly a key energy source, especially in Mozambique,
Namibia and Tanzania where investments are being made in developing the
gas fields.
Table 6.3 shows the current power
installed capacity by members of Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). Approximately 57,000MW or 57 Gigawatts
(GW) is the SAPP-installed capacity
against a suppressed demand of 54GW,
with an available capacity of 52GW.
With a 10 percent reserve requirement,
the region has a shortfall of 7.7GW.
Installed and Available Capacity in SAPP with Demand Forecast
Country
Utility
Angola
Botswana
DRC
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
PRODEL
BPC
SNEL
LEC
ESCOM
EDM/HCB
NamPower
Eskom
SEC
TANESCO
ZESCO/CEC/LHPC
ZESA
1 515
442
2 442
72
287
2 624
393
44 170
72
1 124
1 812
2 045
1 480
322
1 170
72
287
2 279
360
41 074
70
1 124
1 812
1 600
1 341
604
1 398
138
412
636
635
42 416
255
1 444
2 287
2 267
TOTAL SAPP
56 998
51 650
53 833
(7 766)
-4.2%
54 072
48 759
50 636
(7 114)
-3.8%
Total Interconnected SAPP

Installed
Capacity MW
Jan 2013
Available
Capacity MW
Jan 2013
Suppressed
Demand and
Forecast
Demand
Capacity
Shortfall
including
Reserves MW
Calculated
Reserve
Margin %
Therefore, the SADC region is currently

running at 7.7GW power deficit.
The Zambezi Basin states account
for only 18 percent of total power generation in the SADC region despite
making up two-thirds of the SAPP
membership. The bulk of the regions
generation capacity (78 percent) comes
from South Africa.
Most of the 57GW of current
power generation capacity in SADC is
from coal (70 percent), mainly in South
Africa; hydropower (21 percent), mainly
in the Zambezi and Congo River basins;
distillate oil (5 percent); nuclear (3 percent); and gas (1 percent).
Power generation technology by
country is illustrated in Table 6.4.
The regional power system operates
with no reserve margin on many days
and so the slightest disturbance is amplified. The diminished generation capacity is attributed to the following key
factors (Musaba and Naidoo 2008):
Economic growth. Economic
growth of more than five percent
per annum for most SADC Member States has resulted in unprecedented growth in electricity
consumption and demand. Sustainable economic growth requires adTable 6.4
equate electricity supply. The shortage of power has affected the economic and social development of
the entire region. Few countries are
now expected to grow above five
percent from 2008.
Demand for base metals. Increase in
base metal demand on the world
market has resulted in huge mining
companies opening up in southern
Africa. In Zambia, for example, most
of the copper mines, which were
closed at one time and deemed unprofitable then, are now back in operation and making profits. At the
same time, new mines have been
opened in most countries, contributing to high demand for power.
Insufficient investment. There has
not been sufficient investment in
generation and transmission infrastructure over the last 20 years. The
region had excess capacity two
163
SAPP Generation Mix for 2012/13

Technology
Country and (Utility)
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
CCGT
%
1 930
-
4
-
MW
MW
Angola (PRODEL)
Botswana (BPC)
DRC (SNEL)
Lesotho (LEC)
Malawi (ESCOM)
Mozambique (EDM and HCB)
Namibia (NamPower)
South Africa (ESKOM)
Swaziland (SEC)
Tanzania (TANESCO)
Zambia (ZESCO)
Zimbabwe (ZESA)
492
282
132
37 831
9
1 295
32
64
34
86
12
63
833
2 442
72
286
2 573
240
2 000
63
561
1 802
750
55
100
100
100
97
61
5
88
50
99
37
Total
MW
40 041
11 622
1 930
676
2 729
56 998
70
21
100
190
1
485
-
%
13
43
-
MW
Total
IRENA 2014, Analysis from SAPP Annual Report 2013
MW
Distillate
MW
160
51
21
2 409
78
10
-
MW
36
3
5
5
7
1
-
1 515
442
2 442
72
287
2 624
393
44 170
72
1 124
1 812
2 045
decades ago and electricity was

cheap. Some power stations were
actually closed in some countries at
the time as they were expensive to
run and operate. Only recently did
SAPP members start investing in
generation projects. In 2007, for example, a total of about 1,700MW
was commissioned by the SAPP
and a further 1,700MW was commissioned the following year. This
trend has now continued.
The case for increased investment in
energy infrastructure and the search for
sustainable energy sources in the Zambezi Basin have strengthened over the
past decade due to the power deficit situation experienced in the region since
2007. The shortfall has been due to a
number of factors, including growing
demand against limited expansion in
generation capacity.
Power demand in the Zambezi Basin
and the rest of the SADC region has expanded at an estimated rate of three
percent per annum during the past 10
years, and in 2007 the growth accelerated to 4.6 percent. This has resulted in
demand exceeding supply and there is
load shedding in most countries in the
Basin. This has seen a greater role for
the Southern African Power Pool
(SAPP), established in 1995.
At the time of SAPPs formation,
the region had generation surplus capacity and the reserve margin was well over
20 percent. In the last 10 years, the reserve margin has been reduced consid-
164
Table 6.5
Levels of Electrification in the Zambezi Basin

Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC 2010
% Population with Access

1999
2007
8.0
15.0
3.0
6.0
26.0
5.0
12.0
20.0
15.0
22.0
5.0
7.2
34.0
10.5
20.0
39.7
erably and currently the region is operating at less than five percent (SAPP annual reports 2011-2013). Based on
global practices, SAPP requires a 10.2
percent reserve margin at any time. This
desired reserve margin is required to
guarantee system reliability and allow for
unexpected surges in demand for power
that may occur from time to time.
Electrification programmes have
partly contributed to the current power
supply challenges. From 2005, most
SAPP members embarked on massive
rural electrification projects aimed at increasing accessibility to electricity in a region where on average 70 percent of the
population have no access to electricity.
This has seen the level of electrification
increasing by more than 100 percent in
Tanzania and almost doubling in Angola,
Malawi and Zimbabwe between 1999 and
2007 (Table 6.5). Electrification levels in
the Zambezi Basin ranges from five percent in Malawi to nearly 40 percent in
Zimbabwe.
Despite rural electrification programmes in some Basin states, access to
modern energy is still severely constrained, as a large percentage of the
population is not connected to the grid.
The percentage of rural population with
access to electricity ranges from less
than five percent in Mozambique to
about 30 percent in Zimbabwe (Figure
6.3). Low levels of access to electricity
are a factor in urban areas as well. Comparison with other SADC member
states such as Mauritius and South
Africa show that THE Zambezi basin
countries need to strengthen efforts to
extend access to electricity for the majority of the population.
Poverty and the lack of access to fuel
options mean that most of the Basin
population (75 percent) relies primarily
on biomass to meet its residential needs,
and biomass supplies more than 80 percent of the energy consumed in the region (Hall and Scrase 2005). In
Tanzania, Mozambique and Zambia, for
example, nearly all rural households use
wood for cooking and more than 90
Figure 6.3
Access to Grid Electricity in SADC Region
SADC 2010
Table 6.6
Contribution of Biomass Fuels to Energy Supply in 2000
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total Energy
Supply
Energy Supply per

capita
Biomass
Electricity
Access
Million tons of oil

equivalent (Mtoe)
Tons of oil equivalent

(Toe) per capita
% Population
7.67
6.98
1.03
15.39
6.24
10.22
0.58
0.40
0.59
0.46
0.62
0.81
73.6
87.1
18.7
93.6
78.8
56.5
12
22
5
7
34
11
12
40
The biomass values shown include only commercial biomass (that which is traded). One ton of fuel oil contains
about 44,700 MJ of energy, which is equivalent to about 2 tons of oven dry wood.Energy supply and Population
show weighted average
No data
Scholes and Biggs 2004
percent of urban households use charcoal (IEA 2002; van Jaarsveld and others 2005).
Dependence on Biomass
Due to limited access to electricity in the
Zambezi River Basin, as discussed
above, most people rely on burning biomass for domestic needs such as cooking, lighting and heating. Communities
in the Basin rely heavily on firewood,
which accounts for almost 80 percent
of the total energy requirements among
the rural and peri-urban populations
(SADC/SARDC 1994). Experts predict
that wood use in Africa will double by
2020 (ProBEC 2014).
Biomass was estimated to account

for 74 percent of energy requirements
at the start of the millennium (Chenje
2000), but there are data gaps on current biomass contribution to energy
needs. However, due to increasing
electricity shortages in both urban and
rural areas, it is expected that there has
been an increase in the number of
people dependant on biomass for their
energy needs.
Increased Deforestation as a Result
of Overdependence on Biomass
The major threat to the Basins forests
is caused by the high dependence on
fuel wood and charcoal. As mentioned
165
Several studies and assessments

over the past decade have indicated that
some areas in central Mozambique,
Malawi, eastern Zambia and Zimbabwe
had rates of deforestation estimated at
0.4 percent per year during the 1990s
(Simms and Schock 2007, Biggs and
others 2004). This points to the vulnerability of the energy sector as one of the
impacts of global warming could be
drier conditions in the basin, thus reducing biomass growth while also reducing
flow rates for hydropower.
Yields and costs of biomass energy
depend on local conditions such as land
and biomass waste availability and production technology. At present, advanced
biomass conversion technologies as well
as biomass plantations are in their infancy
in the Basin and require further research
and development to become technically
mature and economically viable.
Apart from domestic use, wood fuel
energy is used by some rural industries
that consume significant amounts of firewood and these include brick making,
lime production, fish smoking, beer brewing, and the drying of coffee, tea and tobacco (Chenje 2000; SADC/SARDC and
others 2012).
166
Deforestation as a result of increased biomass demand is shown in these images of
areas surrounding Lilongwe, Malawi. The city began as a village beside the Lilongwe River.
By 1977 the village had grown to a city with a population estimated at 99,000, and 35
years later, in 2012, the population had grown to 781,500. Expansion of the city has resulted in the deforestation of surrounding areas due to the high demand for firewood
and land for farming. Lilongwe was founded as an agricultural market centre for the fertile
Central Region Plateau of Malawi.
above, biomass is a major source of energy in rural areas and is expected to

continue contributing about 80 to 90
percent of the residential energy
needs of low-income households
(IEA 2002).
Human Health Complications

Caused by Indoor Pollution
The use of biomass has negative effects
on public health, particularly on women
and young people who are forced to inhale smoke for long hours while cooking. Some studies have found a link
between biomass use for cooking and
low birth-weight of children.
Biomass smoke is a complex mixture
of pollutants including various gases and
respirable particles. Several of these
chemicals are known hazards to human
health, including Carbon Monoxide (CO),
nitrogen dioxide, benzene, formaldehyde,
polycyclic organic compounds, and Particulate Matter (PM).
Of these, CO and PM may pose the
greatest risk to infant mortality. CO reduces oxygen delivery to vital tissues and
has been associated with low birth-weight
Box 6.3
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND

INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS
In the evolution and contemporary status of the savannah biome in southern Africa, fire
and fire management have existed as a source of energy for more than a million years. The
traditional use of fire in rural societies that guides natural resource management in daily
livelihood activities includes burning pastures to improve forage, clearing croplands, apiculture, hunting and many other uses.
The chitemene system of agriculture in Zambia uses fire to create ash in the cropping
programme of communities (Musonda in SADC/SARDC 1994). Small fires are used to
cook, smelt iron, make pottery, hoe handles and other utensils. When allowed to get out of
control, however, fires induce long-term deleterious results. Fire management and renewable
biomass energy sources are intricately linked.
Daily energy supplies are intertwined with daily needs as illustrated in this case from
Mhondoro Communal Land in Zimbabwe (Nabane quoted in Bradley and McNamara 1994).
She prefers wood from mubondo (Protea gaguedi), musasa (Brachsytegia spiciformis), mususu
(Terminalia formis) and muminu (Psorospermum febrifugum) because these species burn for a long
time and produce charcoal she needs for ironing her familys clothes.
She used to prefer mopane wood (Colophospermum mopane), but it is no longer available
since people cut it all for firewood and for poles for roofing their huts. Because of the
general scarcity of firewood, she is forced to collect species like mutimutema (Diospyros lycioides), muzeze (Peltophorum africanum) and muchava (Monotes glaber) which burn quickly and
create too much smoke. She sometimes cuts dry muhacha branches (Parinari curatellifolia) for
firewood. This was unheard of in the past because people performed their traditional rites
under these trees.
While she is collecting firewood, she also collects wild fruits like hute (Syzgium guineense)
hachapasi (Parinari capensis) tsvanzva (Ximenia caffra). She also collects medicinal plants.
Clear gender roles are evoked at the family micro-level and complex, as noted in northern Malawi.
Nationally, electricity is from large dams, often at the expense of indigenous peoples.
The most notable are Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams on the Zambezi, the ItezhiTezhi, Kafue
Schemes, Zambia and the Lower Shire in Malawi. These large engineering projects paid little
attention to displaced indigenous people. Kariba Dam displaced 70,000 Gwembe Tonga
people in the late 1950s with serious social, economic and ecological impacts that still exist
today and into the future (Magadza 2006).
Their traditional life, religion and belief that the Kariba Gorge itself was the navel of
the world, was replaced with poverty, for example in the Binga area of Zimbabwe.
Similarly, the Tawara people downstream of Cahora Bassa in Mozambique were herded
into strategic hamlets, uprooted from their ancestral homes and from their ways and means
of using the Zambezi River for their survival, a process they had known for centuries, to
make way for Lake Cahora Bassa (Isaacman and Sneddon 2003).
The message is that all major infrastructure projects must ensure that people displaced
by necessary national developments are protected and that they benefit from the project, so
that their lives are made better than before.
This applies to national roads, railway lines and other large projects, including national
parks. Otherwise, bitterness lingers on in peoples new narratives of their histories, becoming
inter-generational and often costly to national progress. Indigenous systems and peoples
should not be lost in this manner, and should not be a cost but a boom to development.
Conversely, the indigenous Lozi built an intricate canal infrastructure to navigate the
Upper Zambezi floodplains over a century ago, directed by the Litunga Lewanika. They are
managed under traditional systems of the Barotseland Royal Establishment (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012). More of this is needed in the river basin area.
167
Table 6.7
Estimates of Renewable Energy Potential

Small Hydro
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Biomass
Wind 30% CF
Country
MW
TWh
TWh
MW
MW
MW
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
300
0
100
300
200
200
300
300
97.9
130.7
44.7
168.5
297.2
314.8
156.9
118.7
133.2
137.6
52.1
220.2
261.8
388
178.9
156.8
500
10
200
1000
50
1000
1000
1000
230
11179
2267
12335
17347
21068
15102
13855
0
1152
1159
1526
1910
11737
4416
3986
TWh Terawatt hours CF Capacity Factor
(American Society of Tropical Medicine

and Hygiene 2007). Even a small amount
of PM can penetrate deep into the lungs,
compromising host defence mechanisms
and increasing the risk for respiratory infections.
168
Wind 20% CF
Addressing Energy Challenges in the

Zambezi Basin
Dependence on biomass must be reduced through provision of clean and
sustainable energy alternatives such as
solar, wind and natural gas. Biofuels
present a great potential as well, as discussed below. There is also need to increase electricity supply through new
power generation projects.
Biofuels
There is great potential for biofuel feedstock production, processing and utilization in the Zambezi River Basin and the
IRENA and SAPP 2013
rest of southern Africa, and the region

has attracted substantial interest in largescale biofuel investments. Biofuels are
considered as a readily available, highly
promising, innovative energy solution
provided their social, environmental and
financial benefits can be optimised.
Several countries have plans to integrate biofuels in their energy diversification strategies (as other emerging
economies have done) and to design a
biofuel industry that maximises socioeconomic benefits. With the expansion
of the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA),
biofuels are expected to become a regionally traded commodity included in
the FTA agreement.
Malawi and Zimbabwe have a long
history of biofuel production and use,
while other countries are in a planning
or early implementation phase. Malawi
and Zimbabwe have already mandated
blending for ethanol, while others are
preparing legislation or undertaking
studies and assessments (SADC 2010).
Ethanol processing facilities have been
operating in Malawi for more than 25
years, and Zimbabwe produced ethanol
for blending in the 1980s for a period,
now resumed.
High prices of hydrocarbons relative
to the cost of producing biofuels have
created a strong incentive to expand production of biofuels in the Basin. Besides
ethanol, the other biofuel produced in the
region is biodiesel, which is made from
vegetable oils. Production of biodiesel has
been introduced on a small-scale in
Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. A bioenergy company has developed 174,000

hectares of land in Zambia for the cultivation of vegetable oil crops for production of biodiesel.
The agro-ecological characteristics
of the whole of southern Africa can accommodate most biofuel crops. In some
countries, potentially productive land is
still in relative abundance, for example in
Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Thus, the increased production
of bioenergy feedstock, if carefully
planned, would not disturb food production and could, if integrated into national
agricultural development strategies, contribute towards increasing food crop production and agricultural productivity.
Most Basin states are conducting agricultural mapping exercises to identify suitable land for biofuel feedstock
production. Using existing and current
climatic and soil data, crop suitability
maps are being developed to identify
areas most suited to biofuel production.
Land zoning is considered to be a critical
component for informed decision-making in biofuel programmes in the region.
With regard to impact on food security, production of biofuels in the
Basin has so far not had a serious impact
on the production of food because cereal food crops have not been used as
the relevant feed, and because production has been on a small scale, thus
avoiding competition for land with food
crop production. However, the situation
could change in future as biofuel production increases as this represents a big
demand on the land resources of the
country.
The shift towards the development
of national biofuels programmes could
have environmental, social and economic
positive spinoffs for Basin states. Environmental benefits are expected from a
reduction in air polluting compounds
compared to the combustion of fossil
fuels. Biofuel crop production, if appropriately planned and properly utilized,
can offer an alternative and cheaper environmentally friendly fuel that can sup-
port rural development and poverty reduction (SADC 2009). This also has the
potential to reduce land degradation and
spread of invasive species both common problems associated with unmanaged land. An emerging biofuel sector
has the ability to improve farming practices and avoid environmental degradation associated with modern farming
practices if guided by a set of sustainability criteria sensitive to production methods and operational scale.
Socio-economic benefits can be derived from employment and skills development throughout the value chain of
biofuel refining and marketing. Biofuel
feedstock production can provide an additional cash crop for farmers supporting
a diversified cropping system. Biofuel
production can increase rural incomes
and if well managed, can empower
women through development of farming
skills for biofuel feedstock. However, the
ability of rural women to take advantage
of these opportunities depends on an enabling legislative environment and investment in extension services and skills
training.
Economic benefits are expected
from savings on importation costs of
fossil fuels and through the marketing
and distribution of refined products
within the country.
Solar Energy
Solar thermal-electric systems have the
long-term potential to provide a signifi-
169
170
cant portion of the Basins electricity and

energy needs. Research has shown that
most countries in the SADC region receive more than 2,500 hours of sunshine
per year, because this region and in fact
the whole of Africa has sunshine all year
round (SARDC 2010). Knowledge about
solar energy is widespread in the Zambezi
Basin, especially on its efficient results and
low operating costs, although its use is still
limited to small-scale cooking and water
heating technologies.
Utility-scale solar plants are being
developed in South Africa and piloted
in Namibia. Solar water heaters are used
throughout the region as a demand
management measure to reduce pressure on the electricity networks. Solar
PV has potential for mini-grids which
can provide a solution for rural irrigation pumps and electrification for areas
that are remote from the main grid.
The potential for the expansion and
widespread use of solar energy in the
Zambezi Basin will depend on innova-
tive measures to reduce the initial cost

while improving performance of solar
electric technologies. With all the advantages and declining production costs,
solar systems delivered to the end user
are currently not cheap to install; a typical home system in the region costs
anywhere between US$500 and
US$1,000, according to the African Development Bank. The use of innovative
financing schemes, such as fee-for-service arrangements, is one way to overcome these high up-front costs.
Installing solar panels to power multiple
houses at once can also cut down on
costs. Botswana, Namibia and Zambia
have developed solar markets, in many
cases with special funds to support consumer credit.
Wind Energy
As the need for cleaner energy sources
gains momentum, some countries in the
Zambezi Basin are slowly turning to wind
power to boost production and meet the
ever-growing demand for electricity. Wind
is regarded as a reliable and clean form of
power generation that does not pollute
the environment, although some environmental impacts are beginning to emerge
from studies conducted on large-scale
wind farms. Wind power on a large grid
can contribute substantially to annual
electricity production without special
arrangements for storage, backup and
load management.
Wind farms are relatively easy to
construct and it is estimated to take
about a year to build one with a capacity
of 100 MW. Wind energy is also emerging as one of the sources of carbon financing under the international Clean
Development Mechanism. Namibia has
announced plans to build a wind farm
at Walvis Bay to generate 300MW of
electricity. Mozambique is planning to
develop a wind farm in Matutune district, north of the capital, Maputo, with
capacity to produce more than 20MW
of power. Tanzania plans to build a
50MW wind farm in the central region
of the country.
Petroleum and Natural Gas

Angola is currently the only significant oil
producer in southern Africa, producing
more than 1.25 million barrels per day (a
figure that has quadrupled over the past
20 years), with estimated crude reserves
of 5.4 billion barrels. This constitutes 96
percent of SADCs total proven reserves
of crude oil. Smaller proven reserves of
oil are found offshore in Mozambique.
The Basins refineries are concentrated in
Angola, Tanzania and Zambia.
Natural gas is becoming more significant to the regions energy sector as
Mozambique, Namibia and Tanzania
develop natural gas fields.
The main infrastructure challenge
for the Basin has been the absence of
adequate storage facilities and pipelines
to transport oil between countries. For
example, fuel destined for Botswana and
Zimbabwe is ferried by truck and rail
from Mozambique or South Africa, a
mode of transport that is uneconomical
and unsafe.
In April 2008, the Ministers responsible for energy in the SADC region met
in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC) to discuss short, medium and
long-term measures to mitigate the power
challenges in the region (SADC 2008). It
was noted that power projects are capital
intensive and take time to implement. The
Ministers agreed to have an interim solution that could be implemented immediately and deliver the required power while
at the same time allow the SAPP to work
on the implementation of medium- and
long-term projects.
Table 6.8
The interim measures that the Ministers approved for SAPP to implement
are the following.
Demand Management based on
Other Regional Experiences
Peak Demand describes the period in
which power is provided for a certain
period at a higher than average supply
level. All SAPP members including
Zambezi Basin states have experienced
a general trend in peak demand increase.
Zambia and Zimbabwe have traditionally had the highest demand rates, but
recently Angola has experienced a substantial increase in peak demand.
Demand management and energy
conservation are an important part of
the energy sector, and SAPP was instructed to implement a Power Conservation Programme (PDP) for the SADC
region. From July 2008, SAPP started
trials for PCP within South Africa with
the expectation that these can be expanded to other utilities.
The other demand management
option that the SAPP considered was
the implementation of a virtual power
station which would be achieved by:
Replacing the current incandescent
lamps with Compact Florescent
Lamps (CFLs);
Use of Solar Water Heaters (SWH)
in new buildings, especially residential areas;
Addressing commercial lighting; and,
Use of Hot Water Load Control
(HWLC) instruments where applicable.
171
Peak Annual Demand
MW
1998
2000
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
209
239
190
245
292
368
1 126
1 950
250
285
205
231
320
426
1 085
1 986
330
362
236
250
362
474
1 118
2 028
374
402
227
266
393
509
1 294
2 069
397
434
242
285
491
531
1 330
2 066
476
434
251
320
490
563
1 393
1 904
476
434
251
320
490
563
1 393
1 904
1 100
553
300
560
564
833
1 600
2 100
870
542
277
616
611
890
1 562
1 836
1 072
578
278
706
611
900
1 681
2 029
2 788.83
2 925.83
3 168.42
3 416.92
3 375.92
3 494.92
3 494.92
3 810.08
3 770.25
3 760.33
SAPP Average
SAPP statistical reports 2004 to 2013
Figure 6.4
Demand Side Management
It was estimated that up to

1,000MW could be saved in the first
year (2009) and this could be increased
to over 4,000MW by 2015 when all the
DSM options have been implemented,
as shown in Figure 6.4.
The overall effect of the implementation of DSM on the SAPP demand
would be a reduction in the load forecast
for the SAPP region as illustrated in Figure 6.5.
A mechanism to provide financial
support is being considered by SAPP
members for the development and implementation of DSM, and there is
also need to develop a local manufac-
172
Figure 6.5
Impact of DSM on the SAPP Load Forecast
turing capability, especially for CFLs,

to support the initiative. SAPP members have agreed to develop a policy
for efficient use of electrical energy
and specific policies to address incandescent lamps versus CFLs, and the
minimum efficiency standards for new
connections.
Supply Side Measures
On the supply side, the SAPP was directed by members to:
Maximise the use of installed supply
options by re-capitalising the power
utilities. Most of the utilities are government-owned, and this would require an injection of capital into the
utilities to ensure their viability;
Create an enabling environment for
renewable energy; and
Develop a structure for the implementation of a least-cost SAPP
generation facility.
Provision of Investment Incentives
Investments into the SADC power sector have not been forthcoming in the
last few years. SAPP members agreed
that in order to attract investment into
the sector, there is need to provide incentives to investors, both local and foreign. They also agreed to address policy
issues with regard to legal and regulatory
frameworks, and to allow exemptions
for Value Added Tax (VAT) and import
tax for power generation equipment.
Some countries have already implemented this initiative.
Creation of an Enabling
Environment
The creation of an enabling environment for investors in the power sector

is essential, and SAPP members agreed
to address policy, legal and regulatory
frameworks, which vary from country to
country.
Implementation of Cost
Reflective Tariffs and Time of Use
Tariffs
The cost of electricity in the SADC region still varies widely among member
states. For many years, the region has
enjoyed excess supply capacity, a situation now reversed. As the current tariffs are not sufficient to attract
investment into the power sector, it
was agreed to implement cost-reflective tariffs by December 2013 and at
the same time adopt regulatory principles that would enhance those tariffs.
At the meeting of SADC Energy Ministers held in Maseru in 2013 it was
noted that most member states were
unlikely to achieve the target.
SAPP Planned Generation Projects

Projects in the Short Term
In 2005, the SAPP Management Committee agreed to develop criteria that
should be used to select priority generation projects to be implemented on a
regional basis. At the SAPP Executive
Committee meeting held in October
2011 in Lesotho, the power pool decided to review and update the criteria
for prioritizing generation and transmission projects. The new criteria were to
consider environmental concerns such
as the impact of generation projects on
climate change (SAPP 2011 Appendix
6.1)
For general projects, the following
categories were identified as a priority:
Generation projects with secured
funding;
Rehabilitation projects as a different category to expansion projects;
Short-term generation projects
with completed Environmental
and Social Impact Assessment
(ESIA) and feasibility studies
done; and,
Medium and long-term generation
projects to cover a period of more
than five years.
For transmission projects, the following categories are to be considered:
Outstanding transmission interconnectors whose aim is to
interconnect non-operating
members of the SAPP to the
SAPP grid, such as Angola, and

the Mozambique-Malawi, Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya interconnectors;
Transmission interconnectors
aimed at relieving congestion on
the SAPP grid; and,
New transmission interconnectors aimed to evacuate power
from generating stations to the
load centres.
The starting point for the analysis
was the establishment of a basket of
generation projects that had not yet secured funding. The key factors used in
selecting the generation projects included:
Fuel diversity;
Geographical spread of the
projects;
Regional impact; and,
Project readiness.
The listing of all the generation projects with the above characteristics were
then separated into two categories of
projects with generation capacity greater
than 1000MW and those with generation
capacity less than 1000MW. The reason
for this was that generation projects with
capacity above 1000MW have greater regional impact. The projects that scored
below 50 percent were not included in the
list of the SAPP priority projects.
Table 6.9
Country
Angola
Botswana
DRC
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
TOTAL
173
SAPP Committed Generation Projects

2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
389
600
55
64
923
60
230
-
640
150
3 105
160
315
300
550
580
35
300
120
2 543
500
600
30
1 246
300
300
50
1 322
1 110
164
300
2 825
900
635
35
64
750
170
7 893
1 830
1 309
630
16
5
4
5
1
46
11
8
4
2 321
4 670
5 258
4 792 17 041
100
Figure 6.6
Hydro Power Projects on the Common

Zambezi River
SADC and ZRA 2007
174
After the selection criteria were applied to projects submitted by members,

the following project generation portfolio
was created in 2011 and updated in 2013.
About 17,000 MW of electricity
generation was planned for the period
2013 to 2016, of which three percent
would be from Non-Convention Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources, particularly solar and wind.
Projects in the Medium Term
In the medium term, the Zambezi River
Basin will become very important as
most of the hydropower generation
needed by the region can be generated
from the Basin. By far, the largest portion is in Zambia (about 40 percent).
Zambia and Zimbabwe, which jointly
operate the Zambezi River Authority,
want to achieve the greatest possible

benefits from the efficient use of the
abundant water of the Zambezi River
for the production of energy and other
mutually beneficial economic, industrial
and social developments.
These developments are guided
by a five-year Strategic Action Plan,
with the development of the Batoka
hydropower station as one of the
priorities.
Figure 6.6 shows some of the project ZRA plans to implement.
The power generation projects along
the Zambezi River Basin as listed in Table
6.10 are planned by the ZRA and by the
Government of Mozambique. A total of
about 8755MW is expected to be commissioned by 2018 (Tumbare 2005).
The commissioning of these hydropower generation projects in the
Zambezi Basin will have massive environmental impact on the basin. One of
the main environmental impacts of the
increasing number of hydropower projects in the basin is the impact on ecosystems. The drive for more hydropower
comes at a time when many freshwater
ecosystems are already in crisis, partially
due to the development of dams and related activities such as water withdrawals
for irrigation. According to the United
Nations, 60 percent of the worlds 227
largest rivers are already severely fragmented by dams, diversions and canals,
leading to the degradation of ecosystems (UN 2003).
A particular problem is the cumulative impacts of several dams on the
same river. A report by WWF (2004)
identified 20 rivers where ecosystems
are at risk from the large number of
dams planned or under construction.
Ecosystem impacts are often very
closely linked to social impacts. Freshwater ecosystems provide people with
essential services, including water supply
and purification, fisheries, flood control
and floodplain fertility. Specific ecosystem impacts caused by hydroelectric
projects depend largely on the following
variables:
the size and flow rate of the river or

tributary where the project is located;
the climatic and habitat conditions
that exist;
the type, size, design, and operation
of the project; and,
whether cumulative impacts occur
because the project is located upstream or downstream of other
projects.
The impacts have to be addressed
before the projects are implemented.
The two biggest projects that will be imFigure 6.7
plemented along the Zambezi River are

Batoka and the Mpanda Nkuwa
(NEPAD and others 2010).
Batoka Hydropower Project is located
on the Zambezi River between Zambia
and Zimbabwe, 50 km below Victoria
Falls. The design involves construction of
Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC), a
181-metre gravity dam, and the installation of 1600MW to be shared equally between Zambia and Zimbabwe, with a
plant of 800MW (4 x 200MW units) on
the south bank in Zimbabwe and 800MW
Priority Energy Projects for PIDA
175
African Development Bank 2012
Table 6.10
Zambezi River Basin Planned Hydropower

Generation Projects 2013-2018
No
Country
Project Name
Zambia
2
3
4
Mozambique
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Zambia/Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Mozambique
Mozambique
Zambia/Zimbabwe
Zambia/Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Kariba North
Extension
HCB North Bank
Lurio
Kariba South
Extension
Devils Gorge
Mphanda Nkuwa
Lupata
Ruo
Batoka
Mupata
Boroma
Victoria Falls
TOTAL
Capacity MW
Expected Date
360
1 245
150
2013
2015
2015
300
1 200
1 500
550
100
1 600
1 200
160
390
2015
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
No data
8 755
Tumbare, M.J. 2005
Figure 6.8
Existing and Proposed Transmission Grid

around the Zambezi Basin
176
Africa Energy (undated)
on the north bank in Zambia. Total energy produced will be 8,739GWh. The
reservoir will be 4.8 million cubic metres
with an area of 25 sq km. The project will
also increase the production capacity of
Kariba plant by 300 MW. Transmission
lines, access roads and other facilities are
also included in the project design. Production cost is estimated at US cents 5.2
/ Kilowatt hour (KWh).
MphandaNkuwa hydroelectric development project is located on the
Zambezi River in
Mozambique, about 60 km downstream from the Cahora Bassa Dam, and
it is an investment that will further exploit
Mozambiques enormous hydro potential
on the Zambezi River. The first phase of
Mpanda Nkuwa is planned to generate
1500 MW (four turbines of 375
megawatts each) or 8600 GWh of energy.
In a subsequent phase, the capacity would
be increased to 2400MW. The associated
transmission lines are 1,540 km to Maputo and 60 km to connect to the Cahora
Bassa substation at Songo. The dam will
be 700 metres long and 86 metres high,
with 13 floodgates. The size of the reservoir is 2.3 billion cubic metres with an
area of 9,500 ha. The number of persons
to be resettled is 1,400.
These two major projects have
been submitted to the African Unions
Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) for financial
support. The priority energy projects
for PIDA are highlighted in Figure 6.7,
of which Batoka and Mphanda Nkuwa
are prominent.
The Zambezi Basin is along the central transmission corridor of the SAPP.
With the coming of hydropower projects
indicated previously in Table 6.10, an enhancement of the central transmission
corridor would be required. Both generation and transmission projects that would
be required to evacuate power from the
basin to load centres will have an environmental impact on the region. Figure 6.8
shows the existing and proposed transmission grid around the Zambezi Basin.
Box 6.4
SADC COUNTRIES EMBARK ON BIOMASS

ENERGY CONSERVATION
An ambitious regional programme for biomass energy conservation has been launched in
southern Africa with a vision to satisfy the energy requirements of the region.
The programme targets mainly the lower-income population groups who often depend
on wood fuel and plans to ensure the protection of millions of hectares of forest resources
while ensuring social equity.
Through the Programme for Biomass Energy Conservation (ProBEC) established by
SADC, German Technical Co-operation (GIZ) is supporting the training of metal fabricators and engineers in the region to construct efficient energy-saving stoves.
The ProBEC project is active in eight SADC countries: Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
In Zambia, the ProBEC project trained 13 regional entrepreneurs in the production of
improved Rocket Cook Stove in the capital, Lusaka. The stove is environmentally friendly
as it produces minimal carbon dioxide, making it safer for indoor cooking.
Biomass energy is fuel derived from any living organism, traditionally it comprises wood,
charcoal, dung and agricultural residues. These are burned in simple fires throughout the
region for food processing and for heating.
There is need for households in the region to adopt the use of the energy-efficient stoves,
said Coordinator of the ProBEC project in Zambia, Ngula Mubonda. However, she noted
that although the technology is good for the environment, it is costly for the ordinary households.
Experience in Malawi has shown that half a drum of cooking local maizemeal (nshima)
can use up to 170 kg of firewood on an open fire, while preparation of the same quantity
ofnshima can use only 14 kg when prepared on a Rocket Stove, accounting for 60 percent
energy efficiency.
Integrated approaches to Biomass Energy Conservation thus offer ways to tackle fuel
shortages, reduce the burden of fuel collection and preparation, and reduce exposure to indoor air pollution.
The ProBEC project has benefited rural and urban households in the region, as well as
small business and institutions that are now using biomass energy for thermal processes.
A Tea Estate in Malawi, for example, was using 170 kg of firewood to prepare food for
120 employees on ordinary open fires, but after buying the Rocket Stove, they now use only
20 kg. Among the institutions that have benefited from the Rocket Stove in Malawi are hospitals and schools.
Analysts say that, due to the fact that biomass will remain the primary source of basic
energy consumption for families and small businesses in most parts of southern Africa in
the foreseeable future, it is of paramount importance that the available energy is being used
in an environmentally sound and socially responsible way.
SANF 2005
177
Challenges in Implementation of
Power Projects
178
The Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan noted that

the SADC region is still facing a number
of challenges with regard to energy availability, delivery, access and price. Pertinent indicators revealed that:
In some SADC countries, rural access
to electricity is below eight percent;
The SADC region lags behind other
Regional Economic Communities
(RECs) in respect of overall access
to electricity as 24 percent of SADC
residents have access to electricity
compared to 36 percent in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP) and
44 percent in the West African
Power Pool (WAPP);
The SADC region has been facing an
electricity deficit since 2007 and the
identified gap is expected to be closed
by 2015. However, the implementation of projects has often lagged behind the planned dates due to lack of
funding and the time taken to conclude power purchase agreements.
Policy Responses and Targets

Harmonization of energy sector policies, legislation, rules, regulations and
standards to facilitate energy market
integration. So far, 11 of the 15 SADC
Member States including the Zambezi
Basin States have introduced electricity
regulation. The Regional Electricity Regulatory Association (RERA) has been
formed by 10 of the SADC national electricity regulators in order to address crossborder electricity regulations and to
harmonise policy and standards.
Development of a Renewable Energy Strategy and Action Plan.
Establishment of energy data banks

and planning networks. The extension of the regional grid has facilitated
the creation of a regional electricity
market through the Southern African
Power Pool which was created to coordinate regional electricity infrastructure
development and electricity trading. All
of the nine interconnected power utilities have signed the Day Ahead Market
governance instruments and have been
trading electricity on a competitive
basis. In addition, SAPP has coordinated the design and development of
power generation plants in order to address the current power supply shortfall
in the region.
Identification and strengthening of
Centres of Excellence for energy research and technology development.
Achievement of 100 percent connectivity to the regional power grid for
all Member States. Five of the eight
Member States in the Zambezi River
Basin are connected to the SAPP grid,
and the exceptions are Angola, Malawi
and Tanzania. Progress has been made
to achieve the RISDP target of 100 percent connectivity to the regional grid
by all Member States; and several interconnecting transmission lines are
under preparation, including the
Malawi-Mozambique, Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya, Malawi- Tanzania, NamibiaAngola, Kafue-Livingstone upgrade,
Zimbabwe-Zambia-Botswana-Namibia,
DRC-Zambia, Central Transmission
Corridor, Second RSA-Zimbabwe Interconnector, and the Second Mozambique-Zimbabwe Interconnector.
Seventy percent of rural communities should have access to modern
forms of energy by 2018.
CHAPTER LINKAGES
OVERVIEW
The growing economies in the Zambezi River Basin demand more energy for industrialization and human
development. Increasing demand for energy oversupply can lead to environmental degradation if not carefully
managed.
WATER RESOURCES
Economic performance of the Zambezi Basin states depends on adequate and reliable energy, and hydropower offers an opportunity to realise this goal. While there are negative impacts on the environment as
a result of hydropower schemes, countries should strive to minimise these. One challenge for the planning
and development of hydropower schemes is the separation of authority between ministries responsible for
energy and for water resources.
People are often displaced by large hydropower generation projects and land that was previously available
for agriculture and other uses is taken up by the reservoirs created by dams that generate hydroelectric power.
Activities in the energy sector have major impacts for biological diversity in the Zambezi Basin. Construction of
hydropower plants lead to loss of wild lands, wetlands and wildlife habitat because animals migrate to new
areas, where new equilibrium may favour some species over others. Plants and trees are unable to migrate and
therefore they drown. These aspects must be fully considered when planning new projects.
Global warming and the resultant changes in climate are due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels in the
generation of electricity and fuel for transportation, as well as inefficient factories and consumptive rather
than sustainable habits, mainly in the North. The main contributor in the Zambezi Basin is deforestation.
Urbanization is a major demographic driver of energy demand. The expansion of urban infrastructure creates
demand for iron, steel, cement and other industrial goods that are energy intensive, in addition to the concentration of domestic consumption.
TOURISM
Biomass is the most used source of energy in the Zambezi Basin, and this is destructive to the environment
through deforestation. The loss of biodiversity through human activities and climate change can impact negatively on the tourism potential in the Basin.
Energy is essential to industrial activities and to the economies in the Zambezi Basin, and causes a significant
increase in demand that can have serious environmental impacts if not well managed.
SCENARIOS
The energy sector is a key factor in emerging opportunities for socio-economic development in the Basin.
179
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URBANIZATION AND
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
Introduction
The population of the Zambezi River
Basin is predominantly rural, although
rural-to-urban migration is increasing
due to the socio-economic opportunities in urban areas. There also challenges
in migration to urban areas, particularly
when the increase in urban population
does not correspond to service delivery.
The rate of production of goods and
services such as housing, water supply
and sanitation, waste management, energy, jobs, and infrastructure development
is often slower than the urban population
Box 7.1
growth. The urbanization process affects

men and women differently, and men
tend to benefit more than women due to
the subordinate role that women play in
society, particularly in access and control
of productive resources (capital, finance
and economic resources).
This chapter seeks to examine the nature and pattern, challenges and opportunities of urbanization and human
settlements in the Zambezi River Basin,
drawing connections between population migration, urban growth, service
delivery and urban environments. Policies and institutional frameworks are ex-
URBAN CENTRES AND URBANISATION
The movement of people from rural areas to towns and cities known as urbanization has been a constant feature for at least a century. Africas pace of urbanization is the fastest in the world at a rate of 3.5 percent -- with southern Africa
urbanising at a rate of three percent.
The Zambezi River Basin hosts many urban areas such as Luena in Angola,
Kasane in Botswana, Tete in Mozambique, KatimaMulilo in Namibia and Mbeya
in Tanzania, all urban areas in Malawi, almost all urban centres in Zambia including
the capital city Lusaka, and most in Zimbabwe, including capital Harare. Recent census figures show that Harare and Lusaka are
the largest urban areas in the Basin by population, with metropolitan populations of just
over 2 million and 1.7 million respectively.
Trade corridors, transport routes and
other infrastructure influence settlement patterns with many urban settlements concentrated around nodes of economic activities
as exemplified in Zambia where 85 percent
of urban residents are concentrated in the
Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces. Some
urban areas such as Tete, Kasane and Kazungula are located near major transboundary
routes.
SADC/SARDC and others 2008; UNEP 2013
www.zamstats.gov.zm
181
plored, and recommendations offered

for strengthened basin-wide cooperation and integration in urbanization and
human settlement.
Settlement Patterns and Growth Rates

The eight riparian states of the Zambezi
River Basin have varied rural and urban
population densities which also characterize the settlement patterns. The rural
settlements are sparsely populated and
tend to have poorly developed infrastructure, lacking in basic services that
are found in urban settlements. Economic and social services such as
schools, hospitals and shopping centres
are few and the rural residents often walk
long distances to access the basic amenities. Rural communities rely on the natural resources and productivity of the
land, and the main economic activities
tend to be agriculture, fishing, mining
and forestry (SADC/SARDC and others
182
Map 7.1
2008). The dwelling units are traditional

semi-permanent and permanent structures grouped together in villages.
Urban centres in the Zambezi Basin
are generally densely populated. Angola
and Botswana have highest proportion
of people living in urban areas (Table
7.1). Botswanas urban population grew
from 1.7 percent of the countrys total
population in the 1970s to more than 60
percent in 2010 and the projections
show that this will exceed 80 percent by
2050 (SADC/SARDC and others, 2008;
2012). Malawi remains the least urbanized country in the Basin. However, its
projected rate of urban growth is the
highest at 6.3 percent per annum. The
majority of Malawis urban residents live
in the cities of Blantyre, Lilongwe,
Mzuzu and Zomba.
Eight-five percent of the urban residents in Zambia are concentrated in two
provinces Copperbelt and Lusaka. Historically these are the provinces with the
Major Cities and Towns in the Zambezi River Basin
highest migration rates due to the mining

and agro-industrial activities. The urban
population in Zambia grew at a rate of
4.2 percent per year in the period 20002010, compared to 1.5 percent per year
during the period 1990-2000. The rural
population grew at a rate of 2.1 percent
per annum during the same period 20002010, a drop from the annual rate of
three percent during the period 19902000. Lusaka Province was the fastest
growing province with an annual population growth rate of 4.6 percent, followed by Northern Province at 3.2
percent per annum and the newly created
Muchinga Province at 3.1 percent per
annum (Central Statistical Office 2014).
The estimated total population of
the Zambezi Basin was over 40 million
in 2008 with some 7.5 million residing
Table 7.1
in urban areas (SADC/SARDC and

others 2012). Several of the Basins
major urban areas have population of
more than one million people. Figure
7.1 shows the percentage of urban population per country.
Urban centres in the

Zambezi Basin are
densely populated.
Causes and Implications of Rapid

Urbanization
183
The high rates of urbanization are a result

of push factors from rural areas such as
poverty, shortage of land, declining returns from agriculture and natural disasters such as floods and droughts; as well
as pull factors that attract people to the
cities. Available and perceived better services in education, health facilities, employment opportunities and the bright lights
Urban and Rural Populations in Basin States (%)

2000
Urban Rural
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
Angola
49.0 51.0
51.0 49.0
53.0 47.0
54.9 45.1
56.7 43.3
57.6 42.4
Botswana
53.2 46.8
54.8 45.2
56.5 43.5
58.1 41.9
59.6 40.4
60.3 39.7
Malawi
15.2 84.8
16.0 84.0
16.9 83.1
17.8 82.2
18.8 81.2
19.3 80.7
Mozambique 29.5 70.5
30.2 69.8
30.7 69.3
31.3 68.7
30.5 69.5
30.7 69.3
Namibia
32.4
67.6
33.5 66.5
34.6 65.4
35.7 64.3
36.8 63.2
37.4 62.6
Tanzania
22.3
77.7
23.1 76.9
24.1 75.9
24.9 75.1
25.6 74.4
25.6 74.4
26.3 73.7
Zambia
34.8 65.2
34.9 65.1
35.0 65.0
35.1 64.9
35.4 64.6
35.6 64.4
39.5 60.5
Zimbabwe
33.8 66.2
34.6 65.4
35.5 64.5
36.4 63.6
37.3 62.7
37.8 62.2
SADC 2011. Climate Change Adaptation in SADC: A Case of the Water Sector
30.8 69.2
31.0 69.0
42.0 58.0
26.7 73.3
Map 7.2
Urban Population Growth
184
Figure 7.1
Urban Population in Zambezi Basin States
Figure 7.2
Common Reasons for

Urban Migration in Angola
Luena town in Angola
UN-Habitat 2008
are often an attraction to urban areas.

However, the post-independence
growth of urban populations outpaced
expansion of the economy and formal
employment opportunities.
Figure 7.2 shows some common
reasons for urban migration in Angola.
The most common reason is the search
for employment and other economic
opportunities. This was followed by the
need to escape from war or conflict during the civil war (12 percent); a small
number come to the urban centres to
study (7 percent); or to live with friends
and relatives (6 percent). An equally
small number come to urban centres to
do business (5 percent); or to escape
poverty at home (5 percent). The pattern is more or less similar in the other
basin countries, where the rural populations are attracted by the economic opportunities in the urban centres.
Urbanization is being accelerated by
global economic integration and the
struggle to attract investments and
tourists. However, this creates pressure
on land available for production, urban
goods and provision of services such as
housing, water and electricity, as well as
exerting pressure on the natural ecosystem. The resultant pressure on the environment has given rise to challenges of
sanitation and pollution which directly
compromise human health and quality
of life, especially in low-income urban
settlements.
The urban poor reside in unplanned

settlements located in peri-urban areas in
which the opportunities are largely for
self-employment in the burgeoning informal sector. In urbanization, as in other
socio-economic processes, women are
more negatively affected as there is less
access to resources as well as social and
economic goods and services. Other challenges associated with urbanization are inadequate waste disposal, limited access to
potable water and sanitation, high levels
of air and water pollution, unemployment
and homelessness.
Long-term planning is not an immediate priority for many urban local
authorities as they are operating in a crisis mode to try to maintain the required
levels of services to meet the expectations of residents. Current urban realities pose several governance and
financial challenges, including the need
to address increasing poverty and unemployment, and declining service delivery.
The crafting of new policy responses has been overtaken in many
cities by the informalization of service
delivery, as municipal governments
struggle to meet the needs of a rapidly
growing population.
Urban infrastructure development
and services cannot keep up with population growth. When services are inadequate, women and girls bear the brunt
of an environment devoid of services
and the burden of provision. Studies
185
186
have shown that there are more male

migrants to cities than females, especially in the 16-to-30-year age group.
With increased urbanization, gender
roles change while gender inequities and
inequalities intensify due to unequal access to goods and services and to basic
social and economic services available in
cities. As competition over scarce resources increases, women find it difficult to access social and economic
facilities due to social and political marginalisation. Policy interventions need to
be formulated to minimize the negative
impacts of these dynamics.
Over the past 20 years migration patterns from and within the Zambezi Basin
have changed considerably as work opportunities for men in the South African
mines have decreased while work opportunities for women have increased. While
urban migration by women is increasing,
it remains a very much smaller phenomenon than male migration because structural challenges and patriarchal values that
have impeded female migration in the
past have not been overcome.
Expansion of urban centres results

in a depletion of the agro-economic
base thereby leading to the reduction of
land available for food production and
other agricultural activities. It has also
led to the loss of biodiversity in flora
and fauna, which is vital for the survival
of species, as forests and woodlands are
food reserves, places of worship, entertainment and religious ceremonies.
Challenges of Rapid Urbanization

Rapid urban growth has an adverse effect
on the environment and human livelihoods as it disturbs the resilience of
ecosystems through deforestation, water
and air pollution and depletion of the
quantity and quality of the water resources. This also reduces productive land
for agriculture and creates unhealthy conditions, especially for the urban poor, with
inadequate housing and shortage of other
basic amenities such as safe water and
sanitation services. Other impacts are the
loss of natural habitats, changes and
losses in biodiversity.
Lilongwe, Malawi in 1995 and 2011
Lilongwe is the capital city of Malawi, shown in these remote sensing images in 1995 and 2011. The city started as
a small village along the Lilongwe River, founded as an agricultural market centre for the fertile Central Region
Plateau. In 1977 the population was estimated at about 99,000 and this grew to 781,500 in 2012. Expansion of the
city has resulted in the deforestation of large surrounding areas due to the high demand for firewood and land for
farming by the growing population.
Urban centres are the major generators of economic activity and they provide employment opportunities and
infrastructural services including housing,
water and electricity. However, the cities
and towns are also the main consumers
of natural resources and the main producers of pollution and waste. Urban
consumption patterns contribute to environmental degradation and natural resource depletion. Urbanization also
impacts on the roles of men and women,
as the proportion of women increases in
the productive sector and in the decisionmaking positions in both rural and urban
centres. As the men migrate to towns, the
women remain as heads of households in
the rural areas; and in urban centres the
women take on roles that were previously
dominated by men.
Increased Demand for Housing
Rural-urban migration is causing pressure
in urban areas through increased demand
for housing and natural resources used in
the construction of housing, such as timber, sand and water. During times of conflict populations tend to move from rural
areas into cities, which are generally perceived to be safer and do not only offer
safe havens but also opportunities for employment. For example, about 4.5 million
Mozambicans were displaced to urban
areas between the mid-1980s and the year
2000. The resettled areas bordering conflict zones have higher population densities and are the most degraded, causing
Box 7.2
further pressure on land and basic services and generally reducing the productive
capacity of the land.
Changes in the consumption patterns also occur where the city dwellers
have resorted to unsustainable forms of
consumption. Urban residents consume
more renewable resources than rural
people thereby placing heavy demands
on the environment. As the urban environment deteriorates, pressure on city
and municipal authorities to provide the
needed services increases, this in turn is
a strain on the already depleted municipal resources. Service provision and environmental protection have been
adversely affected by rapid urban
growth occurring at a time of weak institutional frameworks and responses to
deal with the urbanization process.
Access to formal housing is beyond
the means of the urban poor due to
housing and land costs that are increasing at a time when the purchasing power
of incomes has diminished. In most
countries of the Basin, the provision of
housing is failing to meet demand due
to high population growth and poor
economic performance. The urban migrants hence turn to informal housing
which is often unsafe and sub-standard,
and located in over-crowded areas. Unplanned settlements have mushroomed
mostly in the peri-urban zones. The settlements often lack legal status and the
provision of basic services such as clean
water and sanitation.
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
Well-planned human settlements are important for effective and efficient provision of services
and infrastructure such as roads, schools, telecommunications, hospitals or clinics and other
supporting services. The nature of human settlements portrays the economic status of individuals, countries and the region. While most of the settlements are planned, increasing populations create challenges for the provision of adequate health and education facilities, housing,
sanitation, safe water, electricity, waste disposal, roads and other social services. As a result,
the urban centres have to grapple with issues of informal settlements and homeless people.
All types of human settlements impact on the natural environment, although traditionally this
was a mutually beneficial impact. SADC/SARDC and others 2008
187
188
Lack of
affordable housing
compels many
urban dwellers to
live in informal
settlements.
Housing has a direct effect on economic growth of individuals. The urban

economy and livelihood systems are
centred on the income-earning ability
and productive capacity of the surrounding environment. That vulnerability is made worse by the inhabitants
insecure, low-wage employment and unemployment status. The vast majority of
the urban poor work in the informal
sector in a variety of activities, including
vending and street trading activities.
In 1996 the housing backlog in Zambia was 846,000 units and projections indicate that by 2020 the figure will have
risen to five million if present trends persist (CSO 2010). In Zimbabwe the governments 2005 urban renewal
programme, Operation Murambatsvina,
left over 700,000 people homeless and
this worsened the countrys housing crisis,
despite a rapid increase in the construction of low-cost urban housing. Estimates
show that by 2013 the national housing
deficit in Zimbabwe was 1,250,000 units
(GoZ 2013).
In Malawi, more 100,000 people
were waiting to be allocated housing
through the Malawi Housing Corporation in 2010, and government estimates
indicated that 21,000 houses would be
needed every year to meet the rising demand for housing by 2020 (GoM 2010).
Informal Settlements and the
Informal Economy
Informal settlements and the informal
economy were until recently a phenome-
non of the urbanising process. Rural centres are slowly coming into the informal
economy. The informal sector spans
across environmental, spatial, economic
and social aspects of human settlements
ranging from business activities, markets,
employment and settlements.
Informal settlements within the region continue to be a common sight due
to several factors, including high population growth and poor economic performance (SADC/SARDC and others 2008).
The lack of affordable housing compels
many urban dwellers to live in informal
settlements, usually on the outskirts of
cities, vacant land and backyard shelters.
Such settlements are often illegal and the
official response is to try to destroy them.
Even when the settlements are permitted,
urban local authorities tend not to provide
services. Provision of basic services has
led to upgrading of slums as was done in
Old Naledi in Gaborone during the
1990s. Policy changes to permit private
ownership and protect property rights
have had a significant impact, in some instances stimulating small-scale private enterprise. In Zimbabwe and Botswana the
local authorities have had considerable
success in providing affordable housing
through "site and service" arrangements,
which allow residents to upgrade as and
when they can afford to do so.
Poor access to decent shelter is one
important environmental problem associated with urban growth because this
has direct effects on health, especially
poor inhabitants. Most urban centres
have areas with localised pollution problems from sewage effluent that can be
transported by local river networks, and
the inhabitants tend to live in slums consisting of shacks and makeshift material
or in dilapidated housing, thus presenting enormous challenges to public
health officials.
Environmental degradation in periurban areas has contributed to the
process of impoverishment by affecting
peoples health and thus limiting the capacity to earn income. Urban poverty is
often concentrated in ecologically vulner-
able areas, such as squatter settlements

built in flood-prone and environmentally
degraded locations, or unplanned settlements in peri-urban areas. More than 90
percent of urban population in Malawi
in 2001 lived in slums characterised by
overcrowding, lack of potable water and
poor sanitation facilities (GoM 2010),
and these areas were the hardest hit by
loss of life and property during heavy
flooding in early 2015.
Current urban realities pose a number of governance and financial challenges, including the need to address
growing levels of poverty and unemployment, and improve service delivery.
A visible effect of the current economic hardships has been the massive
expansion of the parallel economy, especially street trading, petty-commodity production and personal services.
The growth of urban poverty has manifested itself in:
the proliferation of backyard accommodation, partly because of the inability of city authorities to provide
enough housing and partly because
many people can no longer afford to
rent formal accommodation;
the emergence of a variegated fabric
of street trading activities in the central business districts of most cities;
the growth of the phenomenon
known as street kids.
The parallel economy has become
the sponge of most of the urban
economies, a safety net for unemployed youth and redundant civil servants, and a useful cushion for
softening the impact of economic
shocks. The parallel economy has expanded to absorb increasing numbers
of people, often vendors and cross-border traders, but many of the economic
opportunities yield limited returns. The
parallel economy usually involves the
setting up of markets which can deliver
food and services at a lower cost compared to the formal sector. This includes
the provision of informal housing, informal markets and informal service
provision.
The informal sector provides a conducive environment for ease of entry by

both men and women into varied economic activities where individuals can
be self-employed with very little education and low capital inputs, flexible
hours and indigenous or adapted technology. The informal sector also offers
opportunities to acquire skills informally
and links to the formal sector. However,
the sector has low returns on investment
and is characterised by low incomes and
ubiquity, but still offers a form of survival and livelihoods, especially for the
informal settlement dwellers.
Inadequate and unstable income reduces the capacity of poor households to
access formal housing and many households resort to living in overcrowded conditions in areas which are not only prone
to disasters but are also devoid of services
and infrastructure. Such accommodation
is prone to flooding and other extreme
weather events such as mudslides. Inadequate provision of public infrastructure
such as piped water, sanitation, drainage
roads and foot paths, increases the health
and work burden and the high levels of
risk from contamination.
Waste Management
The amount of waste generated by cities
and towns in the Zambezi River Basin
far exceeds the capacity for collection,
treatment and disposal. Most urban centres are still using crude dumping methods at official dumpsites as the most
common form of solid waste disposal.
189
In Botswana and Zimbabwe, the

problem of urban waste, whether municipal, industrial, or commercial, has become one of the biggest challenges facing
local authorities. The urban waste stream
in these countries contains unpleasant,
potentially dangerous substances, which,
if improperly managed, could cause harm
to health and the environment. Only 58.6
percent of the urban households in the
region have access to garbage collection
services. One of the greatest challenges
facing waste management in Zimbabwe
has been that waste production is increasing at a time when the local authorities responsible for waste management are
financially overstretched. In Zambia less
than seven percent of urban households
have garbage collection facilities (Lusaka
City Council 2008). Even where the
garbage is collected by municipal authorities, disposal is generally inadequate.
Lusaka has a population of more
than 1.7 million inhabitants and the city
produces 1,400 tonnes of solid waste
daily of which only 10 percent is collected by the city council (UN-Habitat
2010). About 16 percent is collected by
private companies and the remainder of
the solid waste is not being collected due
to a number of factors, including lack
of human, financial and material resources. Within the residential areas and
main markets collection points have
been designated and the garbage is supposed to be collected. This does not
usually happen and garbage remains for
190
Table 7.2
Waste Disposal in Lusaka City
Key benchmarks (2006)

Total Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generated per year
Generation per capita per year
Percentage coverage
381,840 tonnes
201 kg
45%
Percentage disposal in environmentally sound landfills or

controlled disposal sites
Percentage municipal waste incinerated
Percentage diverted and valorised of total waste generated
GTZ/CWG, Lusaka City Report, 2007
26%
None
6%
days. Table 7.2 shows some of the

benchmarks on garbage collection.
The problem of solid waste disposal
is further compounded by the increase
in unsustainable consumption and production habits, the growing production
and consumption of plastics and products made of highly toxic chemicals and
substances that are difficult to recycle.
The indiscriminate dumping creates unhygienic conditions in the urban areas
giving rise to the proliferation of disease
vectors such as mosquitoes and other
pathogens that cause cholera and other
diseases. There have been outbreaks of
cholera due to polluted water resulting
from dumping into rivers and streams,
releasing of toxic industrial and domestic waste, and contaminated waters.
Leachate is produced as the result of
percolation of water or other liquids
through the waste matrix and the squeezing of wet waste due to the weight of the
waste above it. Part of the precipitation
that falls on a landfill will react both
chemically and physically with the waste
and the decomposition products. During
the percolation process, the leachate dissolves some of the chemicals and carries
them along through the waste.
The impacts of poor solid waste collection and disposal are felt more by the
urban poor in the informal settlements
who suffer the deterioration of the living
environment. The uncollected garbage
pollutes the industrial and domestic water
sources, thereby causing diseases and increasing the already stressed and burdened health-care system. Women suffer
more as the care-givers who look after the
sick, especially children and elderly, ensuring that surroundings are safe and clean
for their families.
The major constraint in the management of solid waste in cities is inadequate
finance, made worse by the lack of systems for collection of revenue from the
informally settled households, many of
whom dont have steady incomes. The
disposal or dump sites have remained an
eyesore with scavenging and fires being
some of the most serious problems.
In most urban areas in Zimbabwe,

the main criterion used for selecting
landfill sites has not been on any environmental consideration but the need to
reclaim land by filling up old pits. For example, when Golden Quarry and Teviotdale waste disposal sites in Harare,
Zimbabwe were selected, no feasibility
studies or environmental impact assessment studies were done. In Zimbabwe,
studies on dump scavenging indicate that
there is significant waste scavenging at
almost all the dumpsites in the country.
This is a serious health hazard when all
types of waste are co-deposited and
scavengers use bare hands to sift through
waste piles that contain some sharp objects and broken glass as well as toxic
materials. People who live around the
dumpsites make a living from scavenging
and recycling the rubbish from the site.
The scavenging continues despite the
fact that the air around the dumpsites is
highly polluted with unpleasant and toxic
odours some of which may cause respiratory and skin diseases.
The entry of the private sector
through public private partnerships has
improved the solid waste management
situation in the Basin. The residential
areas that have the ability to pay for the
services can have access to solid waste
and disposal services. There is also an
increase in community-based initiatives
supported by the local authorities and
private companies. The privatization of
waste collection and disposal services
has to some extent worsened the problem of improper waste dumping, since
such companies at times avoid using
designated dumping sites where they
have to pay a fee.
The households who cannot afford
the services of waste disposal companies have no alternative but to dump.
The municipal authorities are running
out of land for dumpsites as the designated sites are in the peri-urban areas
where most of the informal settlements
are situated. There is, however, hope in
recycling which is being taken on by a
number of municipalities in the region.
Water and Sanitation

In a number of SADC countries, many
urban settlements can claim to have total
or near total coverage in terms of the
populations access to safe water and sanitation. However, these data mask the disparities between the urban formal and
informal settlements. Angola has made
remarkable progress in expanding its
drinking water coverage but still needs to
raise the level. In the period 1990 to 2008
access to safe drinking water increased
from 36 to 50 percent of the total population while sanitation dropped from 61
to 50 percent in the same period, mainly
resulting from the growth of slums
(ZAMCOM and SARDC 2014). The
same report notes that access to safe
drinking water in Botswana increased
from 77 percent in 1990 to 94 percent of
total population in 2008, while improved
sanitation rose from 38 to 96 percent of
the population over the same period. This
Box 7.3
PROBLEMS OF IMPROPER HANDLING

OF WASTE
Risks to air- and water-borne diseases;

Blockage of drains and sewers with waste;
Contamination of surface and groundwater by seepage
from landfills and uncontrolled dumps;
Risk of disease to people who make a living by sorting
waste; and,
Unpleasant odours and sights of uncontrolled garbage.
191
positive development is attributed to the

policy decisions and strategic action over
a period of several years.
Figure 7.3 illustrates the proportion
of urban residents per country with access to improved water and sanitation,
while Table 7.3 shows access to sanitation coverage by country in urban and
rural areas.
Most basin countries have improved
the water supply and sanitation facilities
but have not yet met the MDG sanitation
targets (Table 7.4). The proportion of the
population with access to safe water and
sanitation is still very low in most basin
states, with less than 40 percent of the
population having access to safe water
(AMCOW/WHO and UNICEF 2010).
Figure 7.3
Percentage of Urban Residents With

Access To Improved Water And Sanitation
192
ZAMCOM and SARDC. The Zambezi.2014
Table 7.3
There is need for renewed effort and investment in these areas.

Although governments in the region
have taken steps to improve water supply,
the sanitation facilities still remain insufficient, thus adding pressure to the health
services and increasing the vulnerability
to disease. The highly urbanising areas
have the poorest sanitation conditions because the waste disposal and sanitation in
the informal settlements is inadequate.
Water contamination in the basin is widespread due to industrial pollution, seepage
of shallow wells and through discharges
of untreated sewage into surface and
groundwater. Urban residents use this
same contaminated water as it is the only
available source.
The provision of clean water to
urban communities is essential to maintain certain standards of hygiene and
health. However, every household or institution produces waste and it is indispensable that sanitation services be
adequately provided to cope with levels
of waste produced. Even in countries
where a high proportion of urban residents have adequate sanitation, there are
indications that local authorities are failing to cope with the related volume of
sewerage to be treated.
Cholera has become endemic in a
number of countries, including Angola,
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zim-
Sanitation Coverage
Sanitation Coverage 2010 (%)
Country
Urban
Improved
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
85
75
49
38
57
20
57
52
Rural
Unimproved
9
18
5
41
4
58
17
2
Improved
19
41
5
5
17
7
43
32
Total
Unimproved
30
10
9
36
7
73
22
10
AMCOW Snapshots 2012. Drinking water and sanitation in Africa.2012
Improved
58
62
51
18
32
10
48
40
Population (000)
gaining access
1990-2010
Unimproved
17
15
8
37
6
70
20
6
8 031
709
3 866
2 679
400
2 956
2 632
744
Table 7.4
MDG 7 -- Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Millennium Development Goal 7

Target 7C
Halve by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe
drinking water and basic sanitation
Indicators
7.8 Proportion of population using an improved water source
7.9 Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility
babwe, which in turn has led to the

recording of high cholera morbidity and
mortality. In these five countries, an estimated 318,400 cases of cholera have
been reported between 2006 and 2012,
according to data from respective Ministries of Health and the World Health
Organization (WHO, UNICEF and
OCHA 2013). The sanitation situation in
the Zambezi Basin is far from meeting
the required standard, with the occurrence of cholera and other waterborne
diseases recorded year after year. The region needs to do more of prevention
measures than mitigation in order to reduce the incidence of cholera.
There have been significant outbreaks over the past decade. Angola experienced a serious national outbreak
between February 2006 and May 2007,
when 82,204 cases with 3,092 related
deaths were reported. The worst outbreak of the past decade occurred in
Zimbabwe between August 2008 and
July 2009, when 98,592 cases and 4,288
Figure 7.4
deaths were recorded. Eight other countries in southern Africa were also affected by cholera during 2008/09.
In Zambia several innovations have
been adopted to address water shortages
in peri-urban areas. Provision of water
and sanitation services is the responsibility of different government departments. In some urban areas at the
community level, provision and management has been undertaken with input
from Resident Development Committees, water vendors and community-based
organizations such as neighbourhood
health committees and other entities
(Mwandawande 2005). These initiatives
between government and community organizations tend to target low-income
communities in peri-urban areas.
Pollution Patterns and Effects
Urbanization is probably the biggest polluter in the Zambezi River Basin because
of the challenges of sewage affluent and
its disposal, but other major sources of
Reported Cholera Cases in Selected Countries
70000
2006
60000
2007
50000
2008
40000
2009
30000
2010
20000
2011
10000
2012
Angola
Malawi
Mozambique
Ministry of Health (Members States)/WHO and compiled by Ben Henson
Zambia
Zimbabwe
193
pollution are industrial and domestic

waste and emissions, vehicle exhausts,
use of inappropriate domestic fuels and
inappropriate waste disposal of both
solid and liquid waste. This is particularly the case where environmental management measures and institutions are
weak. Inadequate investment in cleaner
production and incentives to minimise
pollution exacerbate the problems.
Most urban centre have localised
pollution problems, including sewerage
affluent, industrial activities and
processes, power generation (oils leakages), and mining activities. Other
sources are natural pollution through
stormwater runoff, agricultural activities, leakages from landfills, agricultural
activities (fertilizers and chemicals, especially now with the increase in urban
agriculture), and seepage from landfills
and pit latrines.
Domestic and industrial effluent in
most urban centres is channelled
through some kind of sewage treatment
works consisting of septic tanks, oxidation pond systems, conventional treatment works, and/or activated sludge
types of works. The sewage treatment
194
Box 7.4
WATER KIOSKS FOR PERI-URBAN

DWELLERS IN ZAMBIA
Zambias National Water Supply and Sanitation Council

(NWASCO) requires $20 million to set up water kiosk systems in peri-urban and low-cost residential areas to ensure
the availability of clean water. NWASCO estimates that
approximately 1.9 million of the 4.5 million people in periurban and low-cost areas do not have access to clean water.
The council wants to introduce a water kiosk system to be
run by water utility companies in targeted areas. Under the
system, consumers will be required to pay K20 (less than
US$0.01) for a 20-litre container of water. The system will
provide services to peri-urban and low-cost dwellers who
walk long distances to fetch water, mainly women. Water
kiosk systems have been set up as a pilot project in Ndola
under the management of Kafubu Water and Sewerage
Company, and in Western province under the Western
Water and Sewerage Company.
Times of Zambia/SADC Today 2005
works are limited to the planned areas

of cities and towns, the unplanned areas
have to devise their own ways of disposing of affluent. The quality of effluent
produced depends on the type of
works, but in general the pollution problems such as eutrophication of water
bodies are being caused by the high concentrations of phosphorous and nitrogen in the effluent. The facilities for
water reticulation, purification and treatment are still largely inadequate.
The pollutants travel over great distances and reach the rivers. The severity
and impact of this pollution is not well
documented, but there is evidence of
the effects of the pollution on the quality of vegetation, soils and water.
Urban centres such as Harare and
Lusaka are facing serious problems of
air pollution caused by industries and
other human activity, and the over-dependence on fossil fuels. Sulphur dioxide, suspended particulate matter,
nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and
lead were in the recent past the most
common, as well as most harmful, air
pollutants in the Basin. These have since
reduced with the phasing out of leaded
fuels in SADC member states and the
introduction of non-sulphur diesel.
Underdeveloped public transportation and facilities for non-motorised
forms of transport is causing serious
traffic congestion throughout the Zambezi Basin, with the central business districts of most major cities having
inadequate parking space. The region
has also seen a significant rise in the volume of vehicles on the roads, including
imported second-hand vehicles. Some
of cars on the road are very old and
emit poisonous gases, and the maintenance also generates a lot of waste.
Water
The high rates of urbanization and industrialization in the Basin, which are
not matched with adequate waste
treatment facilities, have resulted in
water pollution in some of these areas.
Nearly every town and city in the
Box 7.5
URBANIZATION AND POLLUTION
Livingstone in Zambia, Victoria Falls in Zimbabwe and Kasane in Botswana are

some of the urban settlements close to the Zambezi River and these have a combined population of almost 200,000 people. Apart from industrial activities related
to tourism, other industrial activities have been on the decline. Livingstone has six
wastewater oxidation ponds that were commissioned in 1995, and prior to that raw
sewage was being discharged into the Zambezi River. Despite the ponds, some limited discharge into the Zambezi River still occurs.
As a heritage site Victoria Falls is one of the most popular tourist destinations in
southern Africa, with a monthly visitor population averaging 32,000. Environmentalists
believe that the Victoria Falls has reached its full infrastructural and population potential
and any further development will lead to environmental degradation. By the year 2000,
Victoria Falls town was discharging 8,000 cu m of wastewater into the Zambezi River.
The discharge of effluent by the town into the Zambezi River was condoned under
the Water (Effluent and Waste Water Standard) Regulations because the town's population was until 1998 considered small. The town's sewage treatment facilities then
became overloaded and subject to frequent breakdowns,
forcing the town to discharge raw sewage into the Zambezi River through the Masume
River. The town has taken measures to improve this situation through planned infrastructure development, although current figures are not available.
Chitungwiza town, south of Harare, has high levels of pollution due to poor
disposal of sewage. The town has grown rapidly since 1980, with annual population
growth rates of 3.5-7 percent, resulting in serious overload of sewage treatment
facilities. The town is a significant pollution threat to the Manyame River. In the
copper-producing areas of Zambia, the two major mining towns of Ndola and
Kitwe are heavy polluters of the Kafue River.
Zambezi Basin has some form of

sewage treatment works, but most of
these are limited to the planned areas
of cities and towns. The unplanned
areas have to devise their own ways of
disposing of effluent. The quality of
effluent produced depends on the type
of works, but in general pollution
problems such as eutrophication of
water bodies are being caused by the
high concentrations of phosphorous
and nitrogen in the effluent.
Water pollution is a health hazard
because pathogens found in polluted
water are harmful to human health, especially when the water is used for domestic, recreational, industrial or
agricultural purposes. These pathogens
are the cause of waterborne diseases
and in the basin the most common are
dysentery, cholera, malaria and bilharzia.

Pathogens that cause cholera and dysentery are found in water contaminated
with faecal matter from open defecation, seepage from pit latrines into shallow wells, and poorly treated sewers.
Polluted water attracts aquatic weeds,
such as the Kariba weed and the water
hyacinth which cause ecological problems if not controlled. These are the
most problematic aquatic weeds within
the Zambezi River Basin. The pollution
of water bodies can impair reproduction
in fish, retard their growth or kill them.
Air
Air is polluted largely by industrial and

domestic activities that emit toxic gases.
These affect human health and can
cause cardiovascular and respiratory dis-
195
196
eases especially for children and those

who work directly in the industries. The
introduction of ozone-depleting substances into the atmosphere puts people
at the risk of skin cancer and eye
cataracts. This pollution also has ecological effects as the pollutants degrade
water quality and harm aquatic life by interfering with photosynthesis, respiration, growth, and reproduction.
Urban centres such as Harare and
Lusaka are facing serious problems of
air pollution caused by industries and
other human activity, and the over-dependence on fossil fuels. Sulphur dioxide, suspended particulate matter,
nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and
lead were in the recent past the most
common, as well as most harmful, air
pollutants in the Basin. These have been
reduced with the phasing out of leaded
fuels in SADC member states and the
introduction of non-sulphur diesel.
Underdeveloped public transportation and facilities for non-motorised
forms of transport is causing serious
traffic congestion throughout the Zambezi Basin, with the central business districts of most major cities having
inadequate parking space. The region
has also seen a significant rise in the volume of vehicles on the roads, including
imported second-hand vehicles. Some
of cars on the road are very old and
emit poisonous gases, and the maintenance also generates a lot of waste.
Domestic
Domestic pollution caused by the use of

inappropriate domestic fuel is a continuing cause of indoor pollution, especially in low-income and informal
settlements. Women and girls are more
affected by indoor pollution than men
by virtue of their traditional role of
cooking food and caring for families,
often in a smoky environment. Women
are affected by the pollution from domestic activities that use cooking fuels
such as charcoal, animal dung, crop
residue and other items, including the
incomplete combustion of plastics.
There has been a general improvement
in cleaner energy technologies, encouraging energy conservation and other
general environmental conservation
measures. However, indoor air pollution
from heating and cooking activities is
worsening, due to lack of cheap alternatives to firewood and cow dung. Pollution affects all populations within the
polluted area, however some people are
more exposed to pollution than others
due to livelihoods or roles in society.
Industrial
The Zambezi Basin is witnessing worsening pollution problems, including increased levels of uncontrolled waste
dumping, mainly in urban and tourist
areas as well as growing pollution which
is industrial and energy related, although
improvements in efficiency have also
been noted in industry and agriculture.
Urbanization contributes to pollution
and the most affected populations are
the urban poor who often live in informal settlements which are close to industrial areas, and in densely populated
areas, often close to dumping sites.
Oils and grease released into water
bodies can also suffocate aquatic organisms. Heavy metals are toxic to aquatic
life and can contaminate ground and
surface water. These pollutants threaten
fishery breeding grounds and recreation
sites. The water hyacinth threatens to
choke the river system, making it unusable for transport, fishing, recreation,
electricity generation and other activities. In the Kafue River in Zambia, the
water hyacinth has caused problems in
the turbines that generate electricity and
the weed invasion of the river has also
affected fisheries. The same has been
experienced in Lake Chivero, near
Harare.
In Kabwe (Zambia), copper smelting releases hundreds of thousands of
tonnes of sulphur dioxide and dust containing traces of zinc, lead and copper
that affects people and vegetation. Half
of the children in cities with coppersmelting facilities suffer from respiratory diseases. Vegetation is affected by
the release of sulphur dioxide. Air quality is affected by emissions from
smelters, and to a lesser extent the refineries of compounds of carbon, sulphur and nitrogen, and toxic metal
particles. There are indirect emission effects from the use of fossil fuels as energy sources and from potentially
hazardous dusts and gases released in
the workplace. Air pollution levels in the
region are high, affecting mainly urban
areas, which have heavy concentrations
of industrial development.
Another area of concern is air and
water pollution from the mining sector.
Gaseous pollution from mining is found
on the open cast coal mines due to the
spontaneous combustion of coalfaces
initiated from the high sulphur content
of mudstones above the main seams
which may be as much as five to seven
percent sulphur. The mining sector is
also responsible for water pollution
through the discharge of highly toxic
metals such as mercury, which is used to
separate gold from sand, but whose use
can lead to serious illnesses and death if
washed into watercourses and later consumed.
Control and Monitoring
New instruments have been put in place

by the Environmental Management
Agencies of most of the riparian states
to control the levels of air, land and
water pollution. Among such instru-
ments are measures to monitor the level

of pollution, public education and
awareness, environmental production
standards, legal policies, waste treatment
requirements, and provision of disincentives to pollute.
The levels of pollution need to be
monitored from the level of substances
entering the environment, their quantity
and quality, sources and distribution.
The effects of these substances on the
environment and on humans and animals should be measured and monitored. The cost of reducing the effect
is also an important factor in pollution
control. Pollution control and prevention consists of systems of measurement, criteria, standards, laws and
regulations, which are directed at the
sources and causes of the various forms
of pollution. Monitoring of most air
pollutants is generally not conducted in
most of the cities in the Zambezi River
Basin. The scale, effect and impact of
the various factors differs from country
to country.
Unemployment
The rate of population growth in Zambezi Basin cities and towns has fallen
below the capacity to create jobs.
Economies are not growing as fast as
expected, and this has affected job creation, with the expanding informal sector turning largely to self-employment
and trading, including cross-border trading. As a result of the slow rate of
197
growth in formal employment over the

years, informal employment has grown
to an average of 36 percent of the total
labour force. The declining chances of
getting formal employment for most
populations, especially women and
youth, comes against a backdrop of an
industrial base that could hardly support
11 percent of the total population two
decades ago.
One of the drivers of the slow rate
of economic growth is the failure by industry to absorb the labour force. The
rates of growth of the labour force exceed rates of growth of formal sector
wage employment in most riparian
states, making unemployment and underemployment rates very high. The
graduates are often unattractive to the
labour market as inexperienced and
over-priced, giving unequal /disparities
between the skills acquired through formal education and the skills required in
the labour market. Informal sector activities are not regulated and very diffi-
198
Box 7.6
cult to monitor despite providing positive social support for the communities
and contributing significantly to the national economy, although uncalculated
in national accounts.
Urban Agriculture
Urban agriculture produces food for
family consumption and the urban market, and is largely made up of small
plots or market gardens on land around
the homesteads and open spaces and infrastructural servitudes within cities and
towns.
Urban agriculture is a common practice in the Basin, undertaken by about 37
percent of urban households in Mozambique, while 45 percent of low-income
households in Zambia grew horticultural
crops or raised livestock around the home
or on the city periphery in 1996. In Zimbabwe close to 70 percent of urban residents in the capital Harare practiced some
form of urban agriculture during the
same year (SADC/SARDC and others
URBAN AGRICULTURE IN MZUZU CITY, NORTHERN MALAWI
Mzuzu is located in Northern Malawi and has a relatively small population and density relative to other urban
areas in the country. The official population is 128,000 although unofficial estimates put the figure at double that
figure due to widespread informal settlement on the fringes of the city's jurisdiction.
Covering an estimated area of 76 sq km, Mzuzu is a regional economic and political hub. It has a specialist
hospital, tobacco auction floors, a fledging industrial and financial sector, a beverage company and a flea market. The city has several secondary schools, tourist and recreational facilities, vocational colleges, and a public
university. The city's residents depend on food produced in neighbouring northern districts (maize, beans,
cassava) and from far-off central region districts, such as Ntcheu (Irish potatoes).
However, Mzuzu is increasingly reliant on foods produced within the city or within the vicinity (chicken,
milk, vegetables, and maize) to meet the food needs of its expanding population, small businesses, education
institutions and hospitals. Much of this farming takes place within the city in zoned spaces or in backyards.
Institutional responses to urban agriculture indicate that there is a glaring mismatch between the officially
stated land-zoning code and the responses of the city assembly with respect to expanding agricultural activities
in Mzuzu. Because the city's urban infrastructure plan has no provision for agricultural uses, all farming in
the city is technically illegal. Official policies prohibit any forms of land use other than those prescribed by
zoning codes. Although authorities are aware of increased farming activities in the city, officials generally do
not take action against them. Even when residents overtly violate bylaws that only allow for ancillary agriculture
such as livestock or backyard farming, city officials have been reluctant to invoke penalties.
Officials interpret recent land-use changes, especially the growing presence of farming within the city
space, as evidence of the need for changes to the existing policy to better regulate farming, which is understood
by the authorities, as residents of this city. However, they also appreciate the challenges that poorly managed
urban agriculture can present. The city is planning to designate a large area of land for farming, close to the
Lunyangwa agriculture research station.
Arku and Others.Africas Quest for Food Security: What is the role of Urban Agriculture?, 2012
2008). The extensive and reasonably successful practice of urban agriculture is

due to positive efforts that have been
made by cities to facilitate urban agriculture, especially in South Africa, Tanzania
and Zimbabwe.
Urban farming has environmental
hazards including stream-bank cultivation, destruction of wetlands, and the
improper use of pesticides. Data from
Zimbabwe indicate that in Harare, 8.6
percent of urban farming outside of
residential properties occurred near
stream banks, with an additional 7.3 percent of this activity taking place on wetlands (SADC/SARDC and others
2008). The literature shows that women
tend to cultivate smaller plots that are
nearer to the homesteads than those of
men. Women grow produce mainly for
home consumption and food security,
while only the excess is sold, whereas
men have bigger plots used for commercial sales, a little further away from
the place of habitation.
Urban agricultural activities have
conflicted strongly with conservation
activities. In many African cities open
spaces in the residential areas have been
taken up by agricultural activities, which
have played an important role in supplementing the dietary needs of urban
dwellers, notably the urban poor. However, the impact of some of these agri-
cultural activities on the environment

has been negative. Thus there is need to
review urban planning policies so they
recognise the existence of urban agriculture but also consider the environmental conditions for sustainability.
The national food security agenda
in the Basin has an evident rural bias
and insufficient attention is given to the
specific challenges of feeding the residents of urban areas, despite the fact
that the locus of poverty is shifting to
cities and most of the urban poor are
facing food security challenges. It is vital
for city and national policies that address urban food security to appreciate
the complex relationship between
household food security and an entire
range of variables such as income, gender and household size.
Policy Issues and Options

A number of policies and strategies have
been put in place in the SADC region in
response to the challenges presented by
the regions settlement patterns
(SADC/SARDC and others 2008, including those that address housing and human
settlements in respective Basin states. For
example, Malawi formulated the National
Land Policy and National Housing Policy
that address housing issues (GoM 2010).
Mozambiques first housing policy and
199
200
strategy was approved in 2011, and this

specifies the governments commitment
to build 100,000 houses and service
300,000 plots of land by 2014 (Centre for
Affordable Housing Finance in Africa
2014). The Zimbabwe National Housing
Policy (2012) recognises the importance
of providing adequate, quality housing
and outlines a multi-sectoral approach to
address housing challenges and improve
security of the urban poor. (GoZ 2012).
Access to housing and plots is connected to land tenure and accessibility to
land. Housing policies should speak to
land policies and related environmental
policies to ensure improved livelihoods.
This is important if local governments
are to consider regularization of informal sectors as many of these settlements are in peri-urban areas that are
not recognised by other pieces of legislation that facilitate the delivery of
much-needed basic services.
Basin countries are putting in place
several policy instruments to address
challenges presented by rural-urban migration. There is need to address factors
leading to the migration of skilled professionals (social, economic, political,
environmental) and assess the contribution of each of these factors in influencing migration decisions. Policy options
should take into account the contribution of each of these factors.
Initial public policy responses to the
rapid urban population growth have
generally been negative, premised on the
notion that urbanization has to be
curbed. However, in recent years there
has been a policy shift whereby government increasingly began to see cities not
only as engines of economic growth
and sources of service sector employment, but also as major sources of national and local tax revenue.
Urban management in the Zambezi
River Basin faces several challenges.
First, most countries do not have national urbanization policies to guide
macro-economic development. Second,
the highly centralised nature of decision-making has rendered many urban
local authorities ineffective and has left

them with limited powers for local revenue generation to supplement the limited allocations from the centre.
It is evident that urbanization is a
threat to environmental sustainability in
the Zambezi Basin therefore strategies
have to be put in place to minimise the
impact on the environment.
Ensuring urban water supply requires
interventions at sub-regional and local
levels. At sub-regional level, the well-managed, inter-basin transfer schemes and
good catchment land-use management
upstream and downstream of cities are
likely to contribute favourably to longterm water supply. At local level, ensuring
sustainability of the urban water supplies
requires moving towards higher levels of
water conservation, including grey-water
reuse, recycling and decentralized rainwater harvesting. Reducing water loss by fixing leaks and instituting better
maintenance regimes in urban systems
can contribute greatly to savings, indicating that improved efficiency measures can
make a significant contribution to urban
water security.
For wastewater and sanitation, semidecentralized and decentralized waste-toenergy systems that produce gas for
heating and cooking (as well as compost)
are far more desirable than traditional
flush toilet infrastructures that incur large
costs to produce large amounts of water
and energy to transport and process
wastewater in centralized infrastructure.
However, achieving successful integration
of decentralized wastewater sanitation infrastructure requires close engagement
with local communities and inclusive,
transparent processes through which
these technologies are deployed.
More localised solutions are required for dealing with solid waste, and
the potential exists to create small to
medium-scale industries engaged in
waste-value chain and simultaneously to
create the much needed semi-skilled and
skilled jobs. There are numerous opportunities to transform informal recycling
and re-use activities towards greater rel-
evance in Zambezi Basin cities that

could be carefully considered in urban
waste strategies.
Creation of eco-efficient cities;
Effective pollution control through
institutions, legislation, regulation
and enforcement;
Improvement in rural investments and
strengthening the economic base so
that rural populations have incentives;
Measures to reduce poverty in the
cities through small-scale industries,
conducive policies for production,
and sustainable consumption;
Make data available for planning and
policy making;
Improve urban infrastructure and
services to facilitate access for all city
inhabitants for economic development;
Reduce rural-urban migration
through investment in both rural and
urban areas;
Provide adequate facilities and service delivery in urban areas;
Exercise greater control in the management and protection of the common goods of land, air and water.
Efforts to decrease the levels of

poverty are needed, by identifying local
initiatives for revitalising and diversifying the local economies and increasing
possibilities for the informal sector, especially for women and the youth. The
Basin should adopt policies that maximise the benefits of urbanization and
respond to the interconnectivity of the
river basin states.
Clearly, there is need for city councils to support livelihood strategies, especially those pursued by the poor, such
as urban agriculture, in order to
strengthen food security. Also, there is
need for citywide policies that aim to
strengthen targeted safety mechanisms
for urban households who are food insecure.
Gender disaggregated data is not
easily available and this makes it difficult to analyse the impact of various
aspects of urbanization, including
degradation of the environment on
men and women. More research, data
and indicators are needed to facilitate
the identification and mainstreaming
of relevant gender policy options in
the Zambezi River Basin.
201
CHAPTER LINKAGES
BASIN OVERVIEW
Well-planned human settlements can provide roads, schools, telecommunications, hospitals or clinics and supporting
services. Increasing populations create challenges for the provision of adequate health and education facilities, housing,
sanitation, safe water, electricity, waste disposal and other social services The Zambezi River Basin contains significant
urban areas with high growth rates through rural-urban migration, and grapples with challenges of informal settlements.
The urbanization puts additional pressure on infrastructure, goods and services, and often degrades the environment
in peri-urban areas. Rapid urbanization increases the demand and consumption of natural resources, availability of
water resources, and increases the loss of biodiversity. Water pollution, and poor water and sanitation, are a health
hazard. There is pressure on the available quantities by competing users including industry, agriculture, mining and domestic. All types of human settlements impact on the natural environment, although traditionally this was a mutually
beneficial impact.
WATER RESOURCES
Provision of clean water and sanitation services in urban areas requires good planning, and this is disrupted by rapid
growth in urban populations due to migration from rural areas. Urbanization creates demand for water for domestic
use and from competing urban productive activities.
202

Land use is not sufficiently well planned in the Basin with availability of credit facilities to provide livelihoods that retain
the population in rural areas, although progress has been made in some areas. Urban development absorbs peri-urban
land previously available for agriculture and food production, although urban agriculture can support food production
if well-planned. Agriculture can be polluter in the form of herbicides, fertilisers, pesticides and other chemicals find
their way into river systems and other water bodies.
The growth of urban centres involves the clearance of land and deforestation, which impacts on the environment
through pollution, biodiversity loss, and a reduction in the flora and fauna. The common cooking fuel among lowincome households is wood or charcoal which is resource inefficient and unsustainable, causing deforestation and loss
of biodiversity.
Urban centres consume the most natural resources due to concentration of population and provision of services. The
main source of energy is electricity, and generation of thermal energy can be a source of pollution, including carbon
dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide. Per-urban communities mainly collect fuel wood because they cannot
afford other energy sources. The Zambezi Basin weather patterns are changing due to industrial and human activity, as
forest depletion leaves the land with no cover, cultivating on river beds allows for flooding, etc.
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
The growth of the urban centres increase the demand for energy for industrial and domestic use, and for irrigation of
agriculture to provide food for large concentrations of people. Inappropriate energy sources or over-use of unsustainable
resources can be detrimental to the environment. Renewable energy is widely promoted as an alternative to other sources,
and measures are taken to increase supply and reduce demand through energy-saving devices.
TOURISM
The main tourist attractions in the Zambezi Basin are the wildlife in protected areas, especially trans-frontier conservation
areas, and the scenic areas such as the Victoria Falls, Kasane, Kariba and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. The aesthetic
value of such scenic sites can be degraded by over-opulation and pollution, but tourism can reduce poverty levels
through various means, including inclusive employment, cultural tourism, provision of crafts and services by communities, and community-based wildlife management. Settlements near the tourist areas need to have adequate goods and
services and well-functioning infrastructure.
Industrial development has positive and negative impacts, which need to be balanced in human settlements. Industry
provides employment to urban populations, but is also a source of pollution. Industries often discharge affluent into
the environment. Due to poorly planned waste collection and disposal facilities, waste may be disposed of close to habitats, including hazardous waste, putting the residents at risk.
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204
TOURISM
Introduction
Tourism is an important economic and
social activity that has become an integral development tool for many countries including those of the Zambezi
River Basin. The tourism industry is
one of the key drivers of socio-economic development in the region due
to its strong multiplier effect (SARDC
2013). The SADC tourism sector sees
this industry as having a catalytic influence for widespread economic and
social progress and as a means of promoting sustainable development,
based on untapped resources, such as
unique natural, cultural and historic resources including wildlife, wilderness
areas, natural wonders, pristine
beaches, mountain ranges and roundthe-year sunshine (SADC/SARDC
and others 2008).
Riparian countries within the Basin
host hundreds of thousands of tourists
annually who visit places such as Victoria Falls, Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa or
the many national or recreational parks
or transfrontier conservation areas. Almost 365 days of sunshine in the basin
is a prime driver for northern tourists as
they seek to escape the cold weather and
travel for reasons of health and relaxation. The Zimbabwe, Zambia and
Malawi Tourism Strategic Plans outline
scenery and good weather as some of
the tourist motivations to visit these
countries (Retosa 2010). An examination of the online promotion of some
leading tourism agencies shows that
scenery and weather are essential tools
in enticing visitors to the Basin.
According to the United Nations
World
Tourism
Organization
(UNWTO) and the World Travel and
Box 8.1
DEFINING TOURISM
Tourism is a generic term, which encompasses a multiplicity of definitions. However, it is generally accepted that
tourism is about people travelling away from their homes
on temporary visits for particular purposes of touring
other places. This definition captures the essential characteristics of tourism, which include the temporary movement of people to destinations outside their normal places
of work and residence, activities undertaken and facilities
utilised at the destination, mode of transportation used,
length of stay and distance travelled among others. The
term tourism includes at least a 24-hour stay away from
a normal place of residence. Anything less than 24 hours
is described as an excursion and the participants are excursionists, not tourists. The two main purposes associated
with travelling, which makes people tourists, are leisure and
business. Other reasons for tourist travel are for medical
purposes, religious reasons and for education.
Nyakunu in Chenje, M. 2000. State of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000.
Tourism Council (WTTC), global travel

and tourism grew by 3.1 percent in 2013
and contributed about US$2.2 trillion of
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
accounting for more than 100 million
jobs (WTTC 2014; UNWTO 2014).
In terms of its multiplier effect, the
tourism industry outperformed the traditional sectors such as financial and
business services, retail and distribution
in 2014, accounting for over $7 trillion,
266 million jobs, $754 billion in investment and $1.3 trillion in exports
(WTTC 2014). The sector is expected to
grow by an average of 4.2 percent between 2014 and 2024, and provide over
74.5 million additional jobs, of which
23.2 million will be direct jobs and the
reminder indirect due to tourisms multiplier effect (WTTC 2014).
205
206
Some key indicators showed that

2013 and 2014 were good years for
tourism with higher demand and occupancy rates for all regions, and increased
demand for air travel, among others.
The southern part of Africa including
the Zambezi River Basin showed some
steady growth due to the overall political
stability, and the prospects continue to
look promising. Expected positive
growth in key indicators at global level
is also expected to spill over to the Zambezi Basin which is characterised by a
wide variety of landforms, vegetation
zones, wildlife and cultural landscapes
that offer many spectacular tourism attractions. Availability of supportive infrastructure such as hotels, roads and
airports is essential to a robust tourism
sector. In addition, facilitation of easy
movement of people, goods and services, and improvements in technology,
are important factors in tourism development. Being a labour intensive industry, tourism offers many jobs and
livelihoods to companies and individuals, and makes a significant contribution
to the economy of the Zambezi River
Basin at local and national levels.
Box 8.2
The Zambezi Basin has a diverse

range of tourism products from natural, cultural and built products for travellers. It provides opportunities for
game viewing, bungee jumping, white
water rafting, canoe trips and river
cruises, botany and birdlife viewing,
fishing and boating, as well as beautiful
scenery and striking sunsets, wilderness landscapes and many natural resources that are of exceptional value
(SARDC 2013a). The major tourism
destinations in the Zambezi Basin are
national parks and nature reserves,
with wildlife and scenery as primary attractions (SADC/SARDC and others
2012). Other destinations include the
lakes, rivers and mountains, and traditional sites that have been preserved
and maintained for centuries.
This chapter analyses tourism developments and trends, ecotourism and
cultural tourism as well as other related
developments in the sector. The chapter
further analyses the policies and institutional frameworks that have an impact
on tourism, as well as the threats and
opportunities, and examines the impacts
on gender and the youth.
TOURISM PRODUCTS IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Natural Attractions. The Zambezi Basin has products such as protected areas, including
national parks, game and forestry reserves, mountains, hills and valleys, and fresh air.
Water Bodies. The Basin has both natural and artificial water bodies in form of lakes,
dams, rivers and waterfalls, and wetlands that also support other tourism activities.
Cultural/Heritage. The Zambezi Basin has a diverse cultural heritage, offering a unique
product for both external and domestic tourism. Culture or social life within the Basin
area includes historical sites and museums, handicrafts, language, traditions and gastronomy; visual arts and non-tangible culture, including a wide range of music concerts
and festivals, paintings and sculpture, local cuisine, legends, world heritage sites, dress
and leisure. The uniqueness of natural and cultural assets in the Basin has led to recognition of some places by UNESCO as World Heritage Sites. These include both natural
and cultural sites such as Chongonic Rock Art in Malawi and Lake
Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, the Victoria Falls, Mana Pools/Sapi /Chewori; and the Middle
Zambezi Biosphere Reserve. The World Heritage Sites provide a unique opportunity
for conservation and the development of carefully planned, high-value tourism facilities
and sustainable tourism, cultural and environmental management.
Nyakunu in Chenje, M. 2000. State of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000.
Key Drivers of Tourism Development

Globalization
Globalization remains a modern and
key driver for tourism. The historical
analysis of arrivals within the region
shows a growing number of travellers
from the industrialised northern and
emerging eastern economies (Retosa
2010). As disposable income of tourists
from the source markets remains a key
factor for travel, it follows therefore that
impacts on those incomes will affect the
number of tourists visiting the region
and the amount of income earned from
this sector, as well as jobs created and
revenue from taxes. This was evident
during the 2008-2009 financial global
crisis (UNWTO 2009) which saw reduced long-haul travel and holidays and
reduced investments in the sector leading to consequent losses in benefits
from tourism.
Another area related to globalization is the issue of conflict. According
to the UNWTO (2014), conflicts in the
Middle East and north Africa have
pushed tourists to other destinations
such as southern Africa which, although
further from Europe, has remained relatively stable in recent years. This implies that conflicts in a globalised setting
can drive tourists to other destinations
and it is expected that the Zambezi
River Basin will see an increase in tourist
arrivals due to security concerns in other
parts of Africa and the world (UNWTO
2014).
Arrival figures for eight countries
that share the Zambezi Basin showed
significant variations over the period
under review. The growth from 2000 to
2012 represents an increase of 208 percent although this trend varied among
by country as shown in Figure 8.1.
As issues of globalization will continue to impact on tourism, efforts such
as joint marketing, sharing of best practices and information, advancing
tourism as a smart growth sector that
creates clean energy jobs, and prioritis-
Figure 8.1
Tourist Arrival Trends for Zambezi

River Basin Countries
UNWTO 2013; WTTC 2013; RETOSA 2012
ing the inclusion of tourism in economic recovery plans should be embraced and pursued (UNWTO 2009).
Employment
A major justification for tourism development is its capacity to create employment for local communities in areas that
are visited. Consequently, where rewards
from other activities such as agriculture
appear to dwindle or economic opportunity seems limited, local populations
may resort to tourism-related employment. During major tourism events and
festivals within the Basin, generally from
May to November, more informal and
seasonal employment is available from
tour guiding, porters, interpretation
services to events management.
207
208
The Zambezi Basin still lags behind

in women employment, and the travel
and tourism sector has tended to create
different roles for male and female
workers. Whilst actual data to determine
patterns of employment within the
Basin for this sector is scanty and not
disaggregated, observations indicate a
dominance of male employees to females. For example, the proportion of
official figures of employment within
the Department of National Parks and
Wildlife in Malawi shows that for every
one female employee, there are 15 male
employees (GoM 2012).
By the year 2000 only Botswana and
Namibia had more than 50 percent
women employed in the services sector
including tourism, at 67.4 percent and
63.3 percent, respectively. Tanzania and
Zambia had 14.8 percent and 18.4 percent respectively of women employed in
the sector (SADC 2012a), although this
may have changed in the period to date.
Therefore, while the industry is growing, the number of women employed
remains low on average.
The youth from ages 15 and above
work in the tourism sector in the Basin,
usually as casual labour. From tour
guides in the Victoria Falls, Mount Mu-
lanje, Chobe areas and elsewhere, the

youth have taken up employment either
casually or seasonal in such areas as
boating, interpretation services and
porters in some areas. It is common to
see a significant proportion of youth involved in the arts sector through the
production and selling of various artworks and souvenirs.
Infrastructure
Development of the tourism sector depends to a large extent on the provision
of infrastructure as an enabler. Infrastructure such as roads, airports, and direct tourism investment in the sector
through upgrades or new hotels and
lodges in the Basin has seen growth in
an upward trend since the year 2000.
The SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (2012) has noted
that infrastructure is essential to the development and growth of meaningful
tourism within the region.
In the basin countries, physical infrastructure and tourism development
projects have been implemented since
2000. Most notable is the improvements
in access roads connecting Tanzania,
Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia
which allows for smooth road access,
and the upgrading of the airports at

Livingstone/Victoria Falls allowing
more international airlines to access the
area and its national and local destinations.
In addition, one-stop border posts
are being established at key crossings in
the Zambezi Basin to facilitate the easier
movement of people, goods and services between countries. This type of
border crossing was piloted at Chirundu
border post between Zambia and Zimbabwe in 2009. Infrastructure such as
bridges are being developed or expanded, including the plans for construction of the Kazungula Bridge, and
the Katima Mulilo Bridge across the
Zambezi between Namibia and Zambia
which opened in 2005 (SADC and ZRA
2007). These key developments coupled with the UNIVISA initiative will
improve travel and tourism within the
Basin.
Modern advances in aviation have
further made it possible to fly into the
Basin that in the past took longer access.
An increase in multi-destination packages between riparian states in the Basin,
has seen operators flying in tourist
groups from South Luangwa to Lake
Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, Victoria Falls,
Cahora Bassa, Okavango, Inhambane,
Lake Kariba, Caprivi-Kavango and
many other places (Retosa 2010). Efforts to increase air access into and
within the Basin need a firm and bold
step, as the adoption of the Open Skies
Policy alone is not enough. Governments need to put in place favourable
incentives and policies that support air
access and further allow for local partnership in the aviation sector to limit
leakages to international airlines.
The issue of sustainable investment
in improving travel and tourism infrastructure remains a challenge in the
Zambezi Basin. This can make it difficult for tourists to access certain areas,
with potential loss of revenue as well as
encroachment of protected areas and
environmental degradation. However,
significant growth was recorded in cap-
ital investment for the Zambezi Basin

states from a negative growth of -1.2
percent in 2010 to almost 26 percent
growth in 2012 accounting for almost
US$1.2 billion and estimated to grow
further to US$1.6 billion in 2013.
One way to support infrastructure
development is through partnerships
and commercialisation of state enterprises to make them more efficient and
responsive to industry needs. For example, according to the Malawi Privatization Commission (2012), most of the
government-owned lodges have graduated into top-end properties with further expansion of their facilities.
Botswana and Zambia have increased
the role of the private sector in managing wildlife and safari-related activities
government responsible for law enforcement and regulatory aspects (Peace
Parks 2012).
Information Communication
Technology
The growth of technology in all its
forms is a driver of the leisure industry
and has had an impact on tourism at
local and basin levels. The emergence of
e-tourism through the internet has exposed the regions attractions and culture to the world and enabled people to
have quick access to information that is
needed to make decisions about travel.
Use of technology through online
bookings and international payments
209
has improved the way international, regional and local tourists select destinations. The use of devices such as
smartphones, tablets and computers enable travellers to quickly upload pictures
and images in real-time and send to their
friends back home (Retosa 2013).
Another aspect that has played a significant role in raising awareness of the
region is the use of social media. The
use of social media to interact with
tourists provides real-time and updated
information to consumers, which was
not possible a decade ago. Another technological development that is driving
tourism is the use of mobile telephone
technology such as mobile banking that
is now available to residents of the basin
and visitors. The likelihood of interaction by potential visitors with operators
in the region has increased significantly
due to recent multiple functions of mobile devices for internet, social messaging, mobile banking and voice calls.
As shown in Table 8.1, Zambezi
Basin states have registered a sharp increase in the number of mobile cellular
phone subscribers. The number of mobile cellular subscribers in Angola, for
example, rose from just over 3 million
subscribers in 2006 to almost 9 million
subscribers in 2010, an increase of
about 34 percent (SADC 2012a).This
has had a positive impact in the tourism
industry.
210
Table 8.1
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
United Republic
of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Mobile Cellular Subscribers, Number of

Subscriptions
2006
2007
2008
3 054 620
3 122 051
620 163
2 339 317
608 846
4 961 536
4 133 794
1 050 852
3 079 783
800 270
6 773 356
5 212 258
1 507 684
4 405 006
1 052 000
5 609 000
1 663 328
849 146
8 252 000 13 006 793

2 639 026 3 539 003
1 225 654 1 654 721
SADC. SADC Statistical Yearbook 2012
2009
8 109 421
7 055 535
2 374 051
5 970 781
1 217 000
2010
8 909 200
7 703 198
3 037 469
7 224 176
1 534 528
17 469 486 20 983 853

4 406 682 4 946 900
2 991 000 7 500 000
Performance and Trends in the

SADC Region and Zambezi Basin
The tourism sector in Zambezi Basin
states has shown positive growth from
2000 to 2013 in the key variables under
consideration. These variables include
the contribution of travel and tourism
to the GDP, the number of people employed in the tourism sector, the amount
of capital investment resulting from
tourism and tourism receipts (SADC
2012a). UNWTO (2013) says the number of tourists per sq km to the number
of locals, or the tourism carrying capacity, for Angola was 0.2 between
2008 and 2011 but rose to 0.3 in 2012.
For Botswana this stood at 1.09 in 2008
but rose steadily to 1.68 in 2010. For
Zambia it was 0.04 in 2008 rising to 0.08
in 2010 and 0.13 in 2012. Elsewhere in
the Basin, the tourist/population ratio
has also been increasing.
Variables such as contribution to
GDP, employment and capital investment are major motivations for countries investing in tourism. The total
travel and tourism contribution to the
combined regional economy of the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) rose from a total of
US$14.4 billion in 2000 to $58.8 billion
in 2012, and was estimated to grow by
5.2 percent in 2013, rising to an estimated $63.2 billion. During the same
period, the revenues generated from
tourism rose from $5.6 billion in 2000
to $17.2 billion in 2010 and increased
further to $19.6 billion in 2012, with
growth estimated at 2.8 percent or almost $20.9 billion for 2013.
See Table 8.2 for these trends in the
SADC region.
Figures compiled from WTTC,
Travel and Tourism Research 2013, including estimates for 2013
The contribution of the travel and
tourism sector to GDP specifically in
the riparian states of the Zambezi River
Basin was just over $3 billion in the year
2000, which was about 21 percent of
the SADC total. This signifies an impor-
Table 8.2
SADC
SADC Region Travel and Tourism Trends

2000
2003
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
38.2
15.5
5.3
44.1
9.7
4.9
52
-2.8
5.1
57.2
3.4
5.1
58.8
4.7
5.3
63.1
5.2
5.4
Travel and Tourism Total Contribution to GDP

US$ billion
Real growth (%)
% share
14.4
36.2
5.2
21.6
5.2
7
Travel and Tourism Total Contribution to Employment

Real growth (%)
% share
(000)
34.6
10.2
2 802.60
1
11
3 412.70
13.1
7.9
-5.5
1.7
13.6
14.4
13.3
13.1
4 627.80 4 989.20 4 722.30 4 889.70
3.5
3.1
13.2
13.2
5 097.80 5 183.80
5.6
6.8
12.2
9.8
21.5
12.4
14.4
11.9
14.1
14.7
8.1
13.5
17.2
3.6
12.6
18.5
2
11.6
19.6
3.7
11.6
20.9
2.8
11.4
1.74
-8.04
5.98
2.53
8.53
7.33
6.05
28.15
7.79
7.77
-0.34
9.05
8.03
-2.58
7.66
8.93
6.59
7.84
9.12
6.63
8.03
9.73
5.13
7.93
Visitor Exports
US$ billion
Real growth (%)
% share
Capital Investment
US$ billion
Real growth (%)
% share
Figures compiled from WTTC, Travel and Tourism Research 2013, including estimates for 2013
tant economic driver for employment

and capital investment in the Zambezi
Basin. The contribution of the travel
and tourism sector grew to over $9 billion by 2012 and was expected to reach
$10.9 billion in 2013.
The figures further show that
countries in the Zambezi River Basin
experienced higher gains in terms of

employment from travel and tourism
between 2000-2013 which averaged almost 42 percent of all employment in
this sector for the SADC Region. See
Table 8.3 for the travel and tourism
contribution to the economy of the
Zambezi River Basin.
211
Table 8.3
SADC Region Travel and Tourism Trends

2000
2003
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
4.66
17.05
8.71
4.93
9.33
9.35
6.28
29.33
10.03
7.28
14.68
10.44
9.09
23.23
12.09
10.90
11.74
12.18
Travel and Tourism Total Contribution to GDP

US$ billion
Real Growth (%)
% Share
3.02
6.94
7.44
3.54
14.41
8.08
Travel and Tourism Total Contribution to Employment

3.43
8.50
1 582.10
5.15
8.84
1 635.30
1.54
9.24
1 732.50
28.70
10.03
1 956.70
8.88
10.36
2 184.90
1.49
-4.75
13.03
1.68
8.13
13.09
1.81
-0.31
12.89
2.31
33.96
13.55
2.94
54.44
14.20
3.09
5.08
13.05
3.69
15.70
14.23
4.26
22.68
12.85
0.38
-7.58
5.65
0.38
1.26
5.46
0.48
36.25
5.84
0.72
11.76
6.04
0.82
-1.23
5.94
0.97
25.68
6.16
1.25
25.66
6.58
1.57
19.34
6.96
Real growth (%)

5.96
8.25
% share
000
1 365.90
22.16
4.55
12.76
12.73
2 411.00 2 576.70
Visitor Exports
US$ billion
Real growth (%)
% share
Capital Investment
US$ billion
Real growth (%)
% share
Figures compiled from WTTC, Travel and Tourism Research 2013, including estimates for 2013
212
Table 8.3 Travel and Tourism

Trends for the Zambezi River Basin
Figure 8.2 shows trends in the travel
and tourism contribution to the Zambezi Basin economy.
Whilst all basin member countries are
fully independent, tourism may have
formed a new dependency in terms of relationships with the developed countries.
Colonial ties still tend to reflect commerceial and trade linkages. The trading patFigure 8.2
Travel And Tourism Contribution To Zambezi

River Basin By Country
UNWTO World Barometer, August 2013; WTTC, Travel and Tourism Research, 2013
terns, including tourism, have reinforced

and represent the old colonial ties with
primary target markets and investment
patterns built upon old colonial networks
in many cases. In the tourism sector almost all the Basin states have the former
colonial power as their primary source
market for international tourism due to
history, language and economic ties, although they also attract a significant number of tourists from South Africa. For
example, Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and
Zimbabwe have the United Kingdom and
other English-speaking countries as their
major tourism-generating markets, while
Angola and Mozambique derive the majority of travellers from Portugal. Tanzania has both the UK and Germany, as
does Namibia.
However, new economic and political powers are also coming into play
(Bianchi and Clarke 2000; UNWTO
2013). Countries such as the Peoples
Republic of China with an estimated
potential outbound travelling contingent
of over 100 million annually, India and
other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia,
India, China, South Africa) are playing
an important role in investment and

travel within the Zambezi River Basin.
In some cases, the tourism product has
been shaped to accommodate expectations of tourists including the type of
food, design of lodging units and dcor,
even the mode of transport and presentation of activities.
In order to make travelling easier
the model of a Universal Visa (UNIVISA) for SADC countries was conceptualized with a view to allow seamless
travel of tourists from the regions main
source markets. This implies that if one
member country issues a tourist visa, the
tourist will not need to obtain another
visa to visit the other SADC member
states, thus facilitating ease of access to
other destinations within the region and
the Basin. According to SARDC 2013,
while modalities for implementation are
still being finalised by some Member
States, some countries have started this
collaboration, as demonstrated by Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Domestic tourism has proved important to Basin economies as a way of cushioning the impact on operations during
lean periods. According to UNWTO
(2014), domestic travel is important for
economies as it enables business to operate during periods when international
tourist volumes are low and also in cases
where international conflicts or poor economic performance affects travel decisions. In almost all Basin countries, locals
accounted for over 75 percent of occupancy rates in most lodging units which
shows that this market segment is important and needs to be a key factor in marketing strategies (Retosa Travel Barometer
2010). The Basin outlook indicates a sustained growth in domestic tourism due in
part to improvements in regional and national economies, and a growing young
population in the middle-to-high-income
bracket with higher propensity to travel.
Tourism cuts across most economic
sectors, and has a key role in national
budgets and economic planning. Its impact on jobs, taxes, and social strata is
enormous and the Basin states should
encourage domestic and local tourism

to address the effects of cyclical fluctuations often associated with international tourism. According to WTTC
(2014), this sector impacts on the natural and cultural environment in a positive way and provides benefits to all
sectors of society including young people, women and indigenous peoples.
Culture and Community

Development
The SADC tourism body, the Regional
Tourism Organization of Southern
Africa (RETOSA), recognizes culture as
an important tourism opportunity and
attraction. Culture forms a key component of the regions tourism products
and is used as a marketing tool for the
attractions. RETOSA also acknowledges that culture and Indigenous
Knowledge Systems (IKS) are influential resources in tourism.
The Zambezi River Basin has diverse cultures which attract tourists, including indigenous groups such as the
Khoisan of the Kalahari, the Ovahimba
and Herero of Namibia, and many others with a unique way of life. The extent
to which this asset can be properly
recognised, involved and protected
213
214
within the policies of tourism development is still yet to be fully realised as it

has not been adequately addressed in
many cases (Bianchi and Clarke 2000).
The UNWTO and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recognise the
importance of protecting indigenous
people and their respective cultures.
However, there is little evidence to suggest that tour operators and destination
management officials and related government bodies in the Basin have undertaken a consultative process with such
groups in the promotion of tourism.
Events, cultural rituals, and festivals
within the basin such a Kuomboka and
Kulamba in Zambia and the Lake of
Stars International Music Festival on the
shores of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa
have over the last 10 years drawn domestic and international visitors to the
region (RETOSA 2010), creating opportunities for seasonal jobs, linking locals to markets for artwork and crafts,
and supporting various social and community projects. For example, the Lake
of Stars International Music Festival in
Malawi supports communities around
the venue with teaching and learning
materials, improvements in potable
water, and supporting rural women for
savings groups or village banks. Food is
a fundamental cultural element that has

an impact on tourism, including unique
types of food and local delicacies consumed in the area of the Zambezi Basin.
Consumption patterns are determined
by a number of factors such as individual member states per capita, disposable
income, culture and seasonality, among
others. Whilst the predominant consumption is from agriculture produce
through subsistence farming, tourism
has been noted to affect consumption
patterns in some areas. In places like
Victoria Falls, Chobe, Cape Maclear and
others, average prices of some essential
items tend to be higher compared to the
rest of the geographical areas outside
the tourist resortss. At the same time
through observing what tourists like,
local consumption patterns can be affected such as locals moving away from
their usual consumption of maize or
sorghum to fast foods often preferred
by tourists. Over time the popular local
dishes are less featured on restaurant
menus (Gartner and Cukier 2012).
Cultural Tourism
Cultural tourism is concerned with the
lifestyle of the people in the area visited,
their history, art, architecture, religion,
and other elements that shape their way
of life. This can also include tourism in
rural areas showcasing the traditions of

indigenous cultural communities (festivals, traditions, rituals), and their values
and lifestyle, and it has a strong relationship with the natural environment. For
example, the Mulanje Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Malawi is viewed by locals as a God-given sacred reserve that
benefits them.
Regular traditional rainmaking rites
are an attraction for tourists and offer
opportunities to maintain and support
indigenous systems through income
from visiting tourists, whether domestic
or international. Other attractions are
Iron Age sites at Victoria Falls on the
Box 8.3
Zambian side, fossilised footprints on

the Zimbabwean side of the Middle
Zambezi valley, and rock paintings
found throughout the Basin (Chenje
2000).
The Khulubvi Sacred Shrine located in Nsanje District in the Lower
Shire Valley of Malawi is an important
shrine for the Manganja people. They
pay homage to Mbona, a legendary ancestral figure. Several other sites in the
area have sprung over the centuries
and the amalgam has been proposed
for World Heritage Site status, raising
indigenous tourism opportunities
(UNESCO 2013b).
COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION IN TOURISM
The establishment of Magoe National Park in Mozambique is aimed at meeting the

objective of increasing the land for conservation and wildlife management for
tourism as an economic activity, while ensuring benefits to the local community. The
park covers 355,852 hectares on the South Bank of the Zambezi River near Cahora
Bassa in Tete province.
The Tchuma Tchato (Our Wealth) initiative works with the communities to help
them to realise that they benefit from the sustainable use of the wildlife in the park
when they protect and manage the resources together with the government and private
sector operators. Tchuma Tchato is made up of six villages near the corner where
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe meet. They operate a campsite with seven chalets
under local management but monitored by Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and
Fisheries. The villagers work as chalet staff and game scouts. The income from hunting
and campsites is shared as follows 35 percent government, 32.5 percent regional government, and 32.5 percent to the Tchuma Tchato project.
Another example of community conservation is the Community Area Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE) in Zimbabwe which initiates tourist activities linking communities to wildlife management and conservation.
These are land-based activities in areas relatively rich in wildlife, and is based on a
management system that includes local traditions such as in conflict management
alongside introduced systems of management.
These projects offer tourism opportunities and hold vast potential for community-based tourist activity, thus creating opportunities for the youth and women in
such areas to get involved in baking, cookery, art and crafts, interpretation and tour
guiding among others, thus improving their lifestyle and that of their dependents.
Women and the youth stand a better chance for involvement through provision
of economic services such as food preparation, provisions of vegetables and other
agricultural produce, production of artwork and crafts, and performances of music
and dance or storytelling for visitors (Lingwalanya 2000). These activities, though
small, should be encouraged throughout the Zambezi River Basin to ensure that
women and the youth benefit from this form of tourism.
zambezitraveller.com; Filimao and others 2002; SARDC Chenje 2000
215
216
While tour operators and hotel

chains have emphasised the need to respect local norms and culture, some sacred or secret traditions are staged for
tourist consumption. In nearly all lodges
and hotels, local dances are performed
for guests. This depiction and staging of
traditional events has been criticised by
some individuals as an element of
commoditization or commercialization of culture (Gunn 1994; Burns and
Holden 1995) arguing that such performances erode the authenticity of cultures. Although national agencies within
the basin are mindful of cultural commercialization, it is difficult to invoke
protective legislation at national level
and the communities themselves have to
choose modalities to project and protect
their culture while reaping the benefits.
The recognition by UNESCO of some
traditional dances and cultures as unique
heritage may help to protect this cultural
heritage, and it is also important for the
Basin states to adopt a transboundary
cultural and heritage management programme that could promote and protect
cultural heritage and reduce cases of
theft of living culture, while advancing economic development through
joint collaboration (ZEO workshop,
May 2014).
The argument against tourism in
certain circles has been that youth
would want to imitate certain lifestyles
that are not acceptable within local
communities. At a Basin level, it is
therefore important to continue placing
emphasis on the application and imple-
mentation of acceptable codes of

ethics and conduct by travellers prior to
and during their visits. To ensure that
local traditions including behaviour are
not impacted negatively by tourism activities, efforts to manage such negative
impacts need to be established at the
early stages of any tourism development in a given community (Munanura
and others 2013. The code of conduct
and ethics should be adopted by operators, local communities and national
governments. However, there is still
need for a detailed impact analysis for
the Basin about tourist behavioural impact on local communities as standard
practice principles applicable elsewhere
may not be applicable in this area.
Though recognised as a key
tourism resource, the growth of cultural tourism is hampered by the fear
of cultural erosion, thus communitybased tourist activity remains stunted.
Dixley (2005) notes a number of 0ther
constraints in Zambia including shortterm donor funding, low finance capital base, intra-community conflicts,
undeveloped marketing strategies and
several others. Chiutsi and Mudzengi
(2012) note similar constraints for
community-based tourism in Zimbabwe. The potential remains high
nonetheless, as there is growing international demand for cultural tourism.
UNESCOs recognition of indigenous
people, and the potential economic
gains that their indigenous knowledge
systems can bring to communities, is
evident in the Zambezi Basin.
The increasing numbers of people
who travel to learn and experience local
cultures and who in turn bring positive
economic and social impacts should be
considered as part of a wider basin
strategy, as culture is dynamic. Joint efforts to market cultural tourism using
indigenous knowledge systems throughout the Zambezi Basin should be
adopted and coordinated.
One growing element of tourism is
volunteer tourism where holidays are
incorporated into an aspect of volun-
teerism in that people travel to specific

destinations to offer their technical
skills in research, help to build infrastructure or support poverty-reduction
initiatives in communities. This involves
aiding in material and technical shortfalls, restoration of the environment or
research into aspects of society or environment (Tomazos and Butler 2010).
As a result of volunteer tourism, the
basin has seen notable initiatives
through technical and research support
towards conservation and wildlife management for local communities. The ultimate positive impact is shared
knowledge and skills transfer to local
communities, and direct support for
some rural schools and health centres.
Community Development
Community development initiatives
have been part of tourism discussions
in the Zambezi River Basin, as most
governments have prioritized community development as a key policy requirement for any tourism investment.
In line with sustainable tourism principles (UNWTO 2010), strong community-based approaches are central
to many tourism developments in the
Basin. There is also a growing realization that local cooperation, trust and
networking are essential in providing
the right mix for successful tourism
experiences that also benefit the receiving community (Milne and Ateljevic 2001.
In line with modern tourism sustainable practices (UNWTO 2010),
most operators have incorporated a
community development aspect, and almost all protected area operators have a
local community component in their
operations. Over the years, they have
built schools and health centres, as well
as providing potable water to communities (RETOSA 2010). They have also
provided both seasonal and permanent
jobs to local communities, and directly
and indirectly created other economic
opportunities that support local families
and communities.
In rural areas where women have to

perform many household tasks such as
fetching water and collecting firewood,
some tourism developments such as
fencing off beach and river fronts, limiting access to forestry and wildlife reserves which are a source of firewood,
are a threat to women, youth and their
respective communities. Such limitations to access and use of natural resources forces women to travel long
distances, leaving little time to engage in
other productive activities.
Box 8.4
CASE STUDY OF TOURISM

BENEFITS FOR LOCAL POPULATION
Kuti Community Ranch in Salima, Malawi located

some 100 kilometres from the capital, Lilongwe, was
originally a government-owned ranch. In 1996 when
the Malawi government embarked on a privatization
drive for some of its operations, Kuti Ranch was
handed over to a consortium of private managers.
The ranch, measuring some 2,000 hectares of savannah bush land and indigenous forests, served the purpose of forestry conservation but is also one of the
success stories about public, private and people partnership.
Malawi is heavily deforested, but the partnership
between government, the operators and the local community has brought tangible benefits. The ranch promotes responsible tourism, sustainable wildlife
conservation, environmental education and community
outreach programmes that benefit people and wildlife.
The project also provides jobs for over 40 local staff,
showcasing Kuti is a model for environmental conservation and community development in the lakeshore
district of Salima. The partnership with the Lilongwe
Wildlife Centre has seen a number of volunteers imparting their knowledge about tourism, environmental
conservation and community development and has
helped to increase community ownership of the project, leading to reduced poaching, increased household
involvement in communal projects and increased local
and international visitations.
Over the last four years, 25 boreholes have been
sunk in the neighbouring villages, three community
school blocks have been constructed; and the ranch is
implementing reforestation projects, encouraging local
communities in the use of eco-stoves and fuel briquettes to reduce the use of firewood, bee-keeping, fish
farming and various infrastructure projects.
217
Ecotourism
The term ecotourism is most commonly used to describe any recreation in
natural surroundings (Chenje 2000), combining travel and conservation. Most
Basin states are encouraging the development and promotion of ecotourism due
to its various economic, social, preservation and conservatory elements.
Ecotourism emerged from the
global trend to go green as a reaction
to the perceived negative impacts caused
by mass tourism. Modern tourists want
more authenticity in the products other
Box 8.5
218
than what they read in various promotional materials (SADC 2012c;

UNWTO 2012) and the growing number of visitors want to experience the
local way of life of people within the
Basin. Tourists are increasingly becoming sophisticated in their preferences for
travel, which include aspects such as natural life, contact with communities,
learning about special ecosystems and
their conservation (Eagles 2002 cited
in Kostopoulou and Kyritsis 2006. Culture, therefore, remains a key driver of
tourism within the Zambezi River Basin.
FOUR STRATEGIC ROLE PLAYERS IN ECOTOURISM
Ecotourism is defined as purposeful travel to natural areas to understand the culture and natural history for
the environment, taking care not to alter the integrity of the ecosystem, while producing economic opportunities that make the conservation of natural resources beneficial to local people.
Ecotourism is a dynamic interaction between four strategic role players, each of whom has an important
part in the overall plan, hence the adjective strategic. The four role players are:
The Ecotourist;
The Authorities;
The Tour Operator; and,
The Local Community.
The Eco Tourist
Ecotourism starts with the ecotourist, which is a person who pays to see and experience the unique natural
environment and cultural heritage that is offered in a particular area. The ecotourist should be a responsible
tourist, sensitive to how the natural environment and the culture of the local inhabitants can suffer as a
result of tourist activities.
The Authorities
These are the government departments and agencies whose task it is to see that the relevant laws and regulations are followed. To accomplish this, conservation officers and guides are appointed to educate the public,
funded by the taxpayers. There are also non-governmental organizations such as the Worldwide Fund for
Nature (WWF) that educate the public, using funds raised through public and corporate donations, and
work with governments to advise on laws and regulations.
The Tour Operator
The main responsibility of the tour operator is to put together an environmentally sound tourism product.
The operator should then educate the visitors about how to be responsible tourists in such a way that negative
impacts on the environment and local cultures with are minimised. They also brief ecotourists to ensure
their health and safety. Tour operators should understand that unless they operate in a sustainable way, they
are threatening their own livelihood.
The Local Community
These are the people who live in the area promoted by the tour operator and visited by the ecotourists. The
local community should be involved and informed at all levels of the tourism process, from the initial planning of the tour to the actual running of the tour. If they are not involved, they may not see any benefits
and could oppose the ecotourism project if it does not include them.
Ecotourism has been used interchangeably with another term naturebased tourism but is best described as
travel to natural areas that conserves the
environment and supports the wellbeing
of the local people (Ecotourism Society
1993 cited in Norman and others 1996).
Ecotourism is therefore a combination of interests arising out of environmental, economic and social concerns.
All aspects of ecotourism involve the realization that a destination needs to incorporate all attributes of environment,
community and natural resources for
meaningful tourism. The Trans Frontier
Conservation Areas (TFCAs), wetlands,
culture and heritage wildlife and forestry
reserves in the Basin are major attractions which provide opportunities for
ecotourism to thrive. In addition to conservation elements of ecotourism, aspects of respect for culture which is also
part of cultural tourism are integrated
into the whole concept of responsible
travel in the Basin.
At local, national and Basin levels, the
adoption and implementation of essential
ecotourism principles may vary but are
often visible in the form of community
involvement and capacity building for
communities, creation of a conducive environment for local communities to benefit socially and economically from
tourism projects and activities, sustainable
waste management and management of
resource use in protected areas through
monitoring of appropriate numbers of
wildlife and tourists visiting these places
(Garrod and others 2006). In recent years,
ecotourism in the Zambezi River Basin
has come to assume a strategic importance in the political economy of the region, as seen by the advantages presented
in Table 8.5.
According to Massyn (2004), tourism
enterprises based on the natural attractions of the region are today regarded as
key drivers for job growth, wealth creation and economic empowerment particularly for small accommodation
establishments widely known as safari
lodges. They are scattered around the
Table 8.4
Advantages of Nature-Based Tourism
Provides a lucrative source of foreign exchange that can be used to finance

economic growth and development;
Suggests a form of industrial growth that is well-suited to rural areas. Studies have shown that ecotourism is a better form of land use than most
agricultural pursuits, especially in arid and semi-arid areas;
Offers a form of economic development that can spread revenue to the
poorest strata of marginal rural communities;
Promotes the protection of wildlife while promoting social development;
and
Has capacity to promote respect for other peoples cultures on the part of
visitors from foreign countries.
SARDC, Chenje (ed). State of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000
rural areas where they are often the major

driver of economic activity. Drumm and
More (2005) argue that tourism presents
a mix of opportunities and threats, not
only to wildlife but also to communities
that are close to the protected areas. Activities such as trekking and mountain
climbing, walking safaris in wildlife and
forestry reserves may drive away game
and disturb breeding patterns (cited in
Munanura and others 2013).
It is also acknowledged that the
contribution of ecotourism to sustainable development is often compromised
by high rates of leakage. In rural settings in southern African characterised
by a lack of local economic capacity, a
shortage of skills and skewed patterns
of asset ownership, external commercial
interests typically capture a disproportion of the benefits linked to tourism.
This concentration of benefits among
international and urban elites does little
to support social and economic development in the remote rural areas where
ecotourism destinations are located. In
this way, the potential for beneficial linkage between the ecotourism industry
and its surrounding rural economy is
undermined (Massyn 2004).
Environmental Impacts of Tourism

Loss of Vegetative Cover
The Zambezi River Basin has a number
of observable spots that have had all or
part of their natural vegetative cover de-
219
Table 8.5
Impact of Tourism on the Environment
Bio Physical Impact
Potential Cause
Land degradation and habitat

Loss
Soil erosion (including island
and river bank erosion)
Wildlife disturbance
Hotel construction, airports, additional roads and access points,

residential areas and service sites
Roads, boat traffic, bush clearing, deforestation, and increase in
upgrading and maintenance costs
Workers, visitors, and traffic around key species and prime view
points
Movement constrictions by canoes, hotels and fences, resulting in
changes in animal behaviour
Increased human and wildlife conflicts
Loss of biodiversity
Trampling and picking of flora and disturbance of nesting birds,

increased fire hazard
Fire hazards and litter( waste)

Visual impacts and landscape
deterioration
Loss of archaeological sites
Pollution (including noise)
Degradation of water quality
and quantity
Cigarettes, braais, tins, bottles, plastic bags

Inappropriate structures
Road infrastructure, purposeful damage, absence of maintenance
Motorised crafts, litter, sewage effluent, dumps
Domestic water use ,effluent discharge and interference with
natural water flow regimes for activities such as white water rafting
SARDC Chenje. State of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000
220
stroyed as a result of tourism activities,

for example around Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, and at Cape Maclear and
Nkhata Bay in Malawi, through an increase in the number of structures.
These structures cater for all types of
market segments, from high end and
medium to budget markets, along parts
of the Zambezi River and parts of the
Chobe/Kasane area in Botswana. Construction of access roads for use by
tourists for trekking or game drives in
wildlife and forestry reserves has led to
destruction of natural habitats.
Incompatible architectural designs to
suit the needs of tourists have been noted
in some areas leading to a loss of aesthetic
value of such places (UNWTO 2010;
Burns and Holden 1995). Some of the
causes and potential impacts of tourism
are given in Table 8.6 below.
Overuse of some basin areas for
tourism activities such as boating, scuba
diving, snorkelling in Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, self-drives for game viewing in almost all national parks within
the basin such as Mfuwe, Chobe, Mana
Pools and others, including the tendency
of safari operators, drivers, and boat operators to take tourists closer to animals
for observation and photography, does
disturb wildlife. Based on one study of
some of East African reserves, such actions disturb the eating and breeding
habits of wild animals (Tomas 1993
cited in Burns and Holden 1995).
The loss of natural resources and
therefore some of the rare wildlife species
due to loss of vegetative cover is a setback
to the development of tourism in the
Zambezi Basin which deprives the area of
the potential economic benefits from
tourism (Munanura and others 2013).
While the removal of habitats for tourism
is inevitable in most cases, the international principle which has been incorporated in the Environmental Management
Plans and Laws of all Basin countries is
that any tourism development project has
to have an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).
The SADC Protocols on Environment and Forestry and other agreements require that member states ensure
a significant proportion of their land is
dedicated to forestry cover. Tourism in
the Basin mot often takes place in rural

areas where competition for natural resources with communities is high (Sirima and Backman 2013), therefore a
sustainable and equitable benefits-sharing strategy for the use of woodlands
must be in place. Efforts such as Community Based Natural Resources Management (CBNRM) which has seen local
communities manage resources jointly,
should also be applied to cases of
tourism development. For example, for
any vegetative cover removed for
tourism development, the developer
provides ten times more seedlings for
replanting by the communities. Again
use of IKS in conservation should be
adopted to repopulate areas whose vegetative natural cover that has been taken
up by artificial plants.
Agriculture remains the main economic mainstay for rural communities
in the Basin (SADC 2012b). Pressure on
resources on which both tourism and
agriculture depend is likely to continue.
For example, reported cases of conflicts
over protected areas and farming communities have been recorded in Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
(Sirima and Backman 2013b). Some
communities near protected areas such
as forestry and wildlife reserves have encroached into these areas and are involved in subsistence poaching for their
livelihoods (DNPW 2012). In addition
to general poverty levels, population
pressure has led to widespread catchment degradation. The growth in a
number of economic sectors including
tourism and other sectors such as mining and construction may, therefore,
have compounded the pressure on land
resources (Shela 2000).
Air Pollution
The increase in tourist arrivals in the
Zambezi River Basin and movements at
local and national levels brings with it
environmental pollution from combustible fuels in aircrafts, boats and motorised water vessels, and motor
vehicles. As a result, the tourism sector
is a contributor to Green House Gas

(GHG) emissions and at the same time
highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, according to a new report
by UNWTO, UNEP and WMO. GHG
emissions from air travel has become a
growing concern and transport of
tourists to reach their destination is estimated to account for between 59 percent and 97 percent of a tourists
ecological footprint, according to mode
of transportation (Dolnicar and others
2010 cited in Pomering 2013). The
Zambezi Basin has seen an increase in
air charter frequencies including regional and long haul flights between
2000 and 2010.
Most Basin states have implemented
a carbon tax on vehicles within their
borders. Recent efforts by countries to
migrate from use of lead to unleaded
fuels should be encouraged to ensure
harmonization of green travel for
tourists visiting the region. Motorised
boating has increased on major lakes
such as Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and
Kariba, and rivers such as Zambezi,
Shire and Chobe, providing for the
leisure of tourists but having a negative
ecological impact on water bodies, biodiversity and livelihoods.
221
At national and Basin levels the investors in the airline and air charter business argue that fuel-efficient airplanes
and crafts are expensive to source in the
region due to unfavourable acquisition
incentives on top of huge taxes for running and spare parts (Malawi Tourism
Association 2012).
222
Pollution of Water Bodies

Over the years from 2000- 2010, the
number of tourism establishments has
increased in the Basin, implying an increase in water usage, an increase in
solid and liquid waste, and challenges on
sustainable disposal (UNWTO data for
2013 and national figures).
Case studies show that in some
African water bodies, an estimated 70
percent of waste waters go directly into
water bodies without treatment or purification (Holden and Burns 1995).
Such waste causes faecal pollution and
damages beach fronts and river bodies.
This has a direct risk to both the local
communities and tourists. All Basin
countries have Water and Land Management Acts and policies that seek to protect water bodies and catchment areas.
The Zambezi Watercourse Commission
(ZAMCOM) Agreement, the Revised
SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses and various regional and intercountry agreements and protocols seek
to champion and encourage efficient
and equitable use of water and related
resources in the basin and encourage the
reduction in pollution of water bodies
Despite national legislation and regional agreements to reduce water pollution, this continues to be a problem at
national and basin level. For example,
the increase in the number of boats on
Lake Kariba has resulted in oil and fuel
pollution of water mainly as a result of
spillages and leakages from engines and
in some instances by deliberate waste oil
dumping into the lake (Chenje 2000).
Although regulations have been tightened and monitoring increased, there
are few prosecutions. As pollution also
emanates from other sectors such as the
extractive and chemical sectors, the degree to which the tourism sector contributes to overall pollution is likely to
increase due to local, national and regional projections of the sectors growth
(UNWTO 2013; WTTC 2013). The industry and public authorities could
therefore utilise the current general principle and requirements of modern travellers who are said to demand greener
and cleaner environments. Efforts to reduce water pollution could build upon
this momentum of clean travel that the
tourism sector is encouraging.
Tourism and Climate Change
The Basin prides itself in wildlife-based
tourism, and is home to some of the
largest concentration of the Big Five -Lion, Elephant, Leopard, Rhinoceros and
Buffalo. However, recent research shows
that climate change has an impact on
species in African wildlife reserves. Climate change impacts on Africas ecosystems could have a negative effect on
tourism, although this is still under review.
According to modelling by the International Panel on Climate Change, 25 - 40
percent of mammal species in national
parks in sub-Saharan Africa could be-
come endangered (N. Nakicenovic 2000).

This would result in undesirable impacts
on the local habitat in some of the Basin
areas such as the Chobe/Okavango,
Mana Pools, and the Lower Shire River
valley, including mammals, vegetation and
large trees along rivers and in protected
areas (GEF 2012). Present and future
economic returns and jobs could be in
jeopardy due to the subsistence nature of
agriculture and economic opportunities in
rural communities, although they often
have stronger resilience capacities due to
indigenous knowledge.
Increased frequencies of drought in
the Basin could affect tourism arrivals
over time if the current rainfall patterns
and cycles are disrupted. For example,
in mid-2015, lower than normal water
levels along the Zambezi River are impacting on electricity supply and could
reduce water-based activities such as
river rafting, boating, scuba diving and
others, leading to reduced business volumes. Reduced flows in the Zambezi
River could also lower the volume of
water over the Victoria Falls and the resultant spray, making it less attractive to
tourists (SARDC and HBS 2010). Communities that rely on tourists for marketing of their local goods and services
can be greatly affected, and servere or
extended droughts can have a negative
impact on wildlife.
Climate change is a real phenomenon that affects tourism, but tourism activities also contribute to climate change.
Recent studies indicate that the impacts
of climate change on the tourism sector
will steadily intensify, particularly under
higher global GHG emission scenarios.
Therefore, any efforts that significantly
help the travel and tourism industry
should be pursued at all levels within the
Zambezi Basin. Deliberate policy efforts
such as harmonising incentives schemes
for acquisition of fuel-efficient aircrafts
and other motorised equipment used by
the sector will help in combating the effects of climate change associated with
the sector (UNEP 2012, study on Climate Change and Tourism).
An Advance Summary of the Report entitled Climate Change and Tourism:

Responding to Global Challenges, attempts
to quantify the links between tourism
and climate change. Among the key
conclusions of this study are:
Carbon dioxide emissions from the
sector's transport, accommodation
and other tourism activities are estimated to account for between four
and six percent of total emissions.
If no mitigation measures are taken,
tourism contribution to CO2 emissions could grow by 150 percent in
the next 30 years, based on
UNWTO tourism market forecasts.
Impacts of climate change on the
tourism sector will steadily intensify,
particularly under higher global
GHG emission scenarios.
Changing climate patterns might
alter major tourism flows where climate is of paramount importance,
such as Northern Europe, the
Mediterranean and the Caribbean.
Coastal, mountain and nature-based
destinations in least developed countries and small island developing
states might be particularly affected.
Due to emerging topical issues related
to climate change mitigation, concepts
such as carbon footprint in the
tourism sector will need to strategically
focus on resilience, including adaptation
measures in affected destinations within
the Zambezi Basin in order to safeguard
economic returns and jobs, and mitigation measures of specific forms of
tourism in order to achieve substantial
emission reductions.
Programmes such as the transfrontier management of wildlife and forestry
reserves, shared watercourse commissions such as the Zambezi Watercourse
Commission (ZAMCOM) should therefore be embraced. Basin countries are all
members of key international policy
frameworks such as the United Nations
Conventions on Biological Diversity
(UNCBD). The Basins protected areas
are a major draw card for tourism and
present a good source for carbon cred-
223
its, integrated management of these resources is essential. Carbon credit earnings from protected areas can be used
to encourage more community efforts
in conservation and reforestation.
Tourism Opportunities and

Challenges
224
Various national tourism policies show

that all riparian states of the Zambezi
River Basin have developed strategies for
positive growth in terms of the contribution of tourism to national economies.
The establishment of TFCAs, for
example, presents a significant opportunity for sustainable growth of the
tourism industry in the Basin. Five Basin
states have established the KavangoZambezi (KAZA) Transfrontier Conservation Area, thus demonstrating that
it is possible to combine conservation
efforts across national boundaries to
provide a unique tourism product. The
conservation area established by Angola, Botswana, Namibia,
Zambia and Zimbabwe
boasts of numerous tourist
attractions such as the Victoria Falls, San Rock Paint-
ings, white water rafting and other water

sports, and the absorbing wildlife in the
Basin. An Integrated Development Plan
has been prepared for the enlarged Park
and its surroundings.
Related opportunities include the
joint marketing of attractions, thus presenting prospective tourists with a wider
range of options and experiences. It is
predicted that the KAZA TFCA could attract as many as eight million tourists to
the region annually in future as well as creating employment for thousands of people (SADC/SARDC and others 2012).
A related challenge is that tourists
are sensitive to issues of personal safety
and security. Therefore, internal political
instability in any of the countries that
are party to a TFCA programme can result in the reduction of tourist arrivals
to the area (SADC 2012d). This sensitivity may be compounded by the fact
that tourists knowledge of national
boundaries in the areas they visit may be
limited hence instability in one country
can affect tourist flows to other countries nearby. The political environment
in the region needs to be monitored and
managed to ensure that the Zambezi
River Basin and the SADC region has a
safe and positive tourism profile.
Population and Tourism

With combined population and tourism
growth in the Basin, there other challenges in addition to benefits. Tourism
consumption competes for natural resources with other human activities.
Population growth and general livelihood patterns also affect and are affected by tourism, especially in cases
where growing pressure on available
arable land forces communities to encroach into protected areas which are
maintained not only for their traditional
and ecological values but are a major
tourism product. A study of tourism development in the Usanga Plains in Tanzania by Sirima and Backman (2013)
found that some communities were displaced to make way for tourism development. They argue that benefits of
such displacement have not been shared
with the displaced communities, often
creating tension and misgivings about
tourism development.
Tourism employment is cyclical and
often distorts conventional work patterns. It may take people away from
other productive and traditional sectors
of the economy, particularly agriculture
during the growing season (Bryden 1973
cited in Burns and Holden 1995). These
take labour and families away from their
usual jobs and economic activity which
may have negative effects on such families if the earnings from tourism are inadequate.
Despite the positive social impacts,
tourism within the region poses some
challenges to local communities which
are cultural and social in nature (Dyer
and others 2003). If not well managed,
tourism has the potential to negatively
modify local culture, resulting in social
tensions and undesirable change in
local customs and values (Mbaiwa
2005 cited in Munanura and others
2013; Burns and Holden 1995). According to Garrod and others (2006),
difficulties tend to arise when local
residents affectively become an intrinsic part of the attraction, their distinctive manner of dress, languages,
customs or ways of life being something that visitors have come to experience as local residents develop
antipathy towards visitors.
Exclusion from Resources
Other negative social changes resulting
from tourism include the exclusion of
locals from resources. This has been
seen in areas near water bodies, where
tourism operators fence off the river
banks and beach fronts thus preventing
the local inhabitants from accessing
what has been traditionally their heritage
and a source of livelihood. Another social impact is the perception of the use
of scarce local and national resources
for what is perceived as the enjoyment
of wealthy foreigners (Garrod and others 2010; Gunn 1994) leading to the
commercialization or overexploitation
of that resource.
Another notable occurrence is the
loss of living culture or theft of works
of art created in the Basin which has
seen a number of artworks including
music and drama being patented in the
north Africa and Europe (GoM 2005;
Mbaiwa 2005). As a result, tourists may
not fully associate these with the Zambezi River Basin.
Benefits from tourism tend to be
shared unevenly among communities. A
study by Sirima and Backman (2013)
showed that the displacement of people
for tourism development in Tanzania
left the majority of local communities
around the park with little or no access
to prime livelihood resources. The displacement further shifted the land use
patterns and tenure systems and created
disparities in benefits.
225
Planning Tourism Development

While the first tourist arrival is viewed
as an opportunity for jobs in the community, the euphoria that comes with
this gradually wanes to antagonism if
benefits are not forthcoming. This is referred to as the Doxley Irridex or Doxleys Irritation Index (Ryan 1991) which
analyses the stages that communities go
through due to tourist arrivals. This is
especially common in the areas of the
Basin where informal tourism developments start without proper integrated
planning which leads to competition
over land and resources between locals
and tourists. Where there has been no
proper planning and strong implementation, such as the case in some areas
along Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa,
along the Zambezi River and around
Lake Kariba, cases of irritation about
the intrusion of tourists is often high.
226
Behaviour Change
The copying effect where local populations observe the way of dress, drinking
and socialization of tourists may have
negative effects on the social life of
local communities within the Basin.
The adoption of tourist behaviour has
been viewed as a negative impact in the
region especially if such behaviour is
socially unacceptable at local and national levels. This was manifested in
some legislative requirements for some
Basin countries in the 1970s and 1980s
that prescribed a code of dress in public areas.
Ill Treatment and Low Wages

There have been reported cases of illtreatment of women and youth operating in the tourism sector in some
destinations. Though national legislation in the Basin outlaws child employment and prescribes a minimum wage
for workers, the cases of underage employment and wage structure tend to
discriminate against women and the
youth in this sector. A deliberate policy
shift that recognises the role of
women and youth in sustainable
tourism through active involvement in
community development projects and
capacity-building programmes needs
to be included as an integral strategy
to empower women to benefit from
natural resources.
Sustainability
Another challenge that needs the attention of Basin states is that of sustainability. One of the challenges for the
sustainable development of the tourism
industry is to convince stakeholders that
tourism cannot continue to grow unless
the negative impacts on natures lifesupport systems are considered. As
tourism offers opportunities for employment and reducing poverty, the mutual relationship between tourism and
healthy ecosystems should not be compromised.
SARDC Chenje (2000) identified a
number of challenges that need to be
addressed in order to strike a balance
between ecology and tourism in future.
These include:
Efficient planning such as adequate
forecasting of tourist pressures and
capacities;
Tourist marketing and awareness oriented towards natural resources; and,
Improved cooperation between organizations involved in the industry.
Another challenge to sustainability
is international and intra-national air access. Despite adoption of the Open
Skies Policy, very few countries had implemented this policy to encourage
more airlines to ply routes within and
across the destinations by 2010, except
for Botswana. Delays in opening up air
services with a view to protect national
airlines have resulted in a huge cost to
the tourism sector since this has made
travel to and within the region very expensive.
Illicit Flows
A major hindrance to tourism development is that of corruption and illicit
flows of financial and natural resources.
This remains a key governance issue in
the Zambezi Basin. Increasing cases of
corruption reported in member states in
areas such as illegal wildlife hunting, illegal trade in ivory and animal products,
and tourism concessions in protected
areas have impacted on tourism activities and the environment.
According to the annual report of
the Department of National Parks and
Wildlife of Malawi, more than 20 cases
of illegal ivory trafficking have been reported over the last two years and courts
have handed down sentences to a number of people who connive with traders
(GoM 2013). Zimbabwe reported an incident of elephants poisoned by poachers believed to be conniving with illegal
traders. The case was prosecuted and
oversight increased, but new challenge
quickly emerge. According to IUCN
2013, a surge in elephant poaching
could threaten the previously secure
populations in southern Africa, although the numbers still exceed the carrying capacity of the habitat.
Box 8.6
THE CASE OF CECIL HUNTING AS

TOURISM IN THE ZAMBEZI BASIN
Selective hunting of wild animals is an important tourism

activity in the Zambezi Basin that generates significant income for the sector. Hunting tourism has been identified as
an effective conservation tool with social, economic, and environmental benefits if well-regulated and closely monitored.
This attaches an economic value to the wildlife and encourages the cooperation of local people in conservation efforts
for economic gain.
An Africa-wide study by the UNWTO (2015) compiled
figures from governments and tour operators throughout
Africa to assess the state of the wildlife tourism industry.
This found that the wildlife tourism industry contributes 80
percent of international travel sales to the continent, and a
large portion of the $34.2 billion African tourism industry.
However, big game hunting of wildlife has potential impacts as it can lead to a loss of key species upon which tourism
depends, as illustrated by the killing of Cecil the Lion at
Hwange National Park in Zimbabwe in 2015. Cecil was a popular figure in the park whose activities had been monitored for
several years with the help of a tracking collar. However, he
was enticed out of the park and onto private land using raw
meat, and targeted by an American wildlife hunter using a bow
and arrow, initially wounding him.
The death of the iconic lion, whose cubs still prowl the
Hwange National Park, has led to local prosecutions as well as
tighter regulatory and monitoring mechanisms, as all hunters
must now be accompanied on their hunt by a game ranger, not
only a licensed safari operator. Although Cecil was well-known
locally and is missed in the park, his story and image have gone
global. His legacy is more likely to result in an increase rather
than a reduction in tourism revenue, as tourists are attracted
to the image of the distinguished animal with the black mane.
Cecil the lion,

Hwange
National Park
Uncontrolled hunting can lead to the extinction of rare

animals or species, as they become a target because of their
different characteristics. Hunting tourism must therefore to
be practised following the regulations attached to it and with
due diligence for the environmental and tourism impacts.
227
Table 8.6 below presents some of

the opportunities and challenges encountered by the riparian states of the
Zambezi River Basin in their endeavour
to develop the potential of the tourism
sector.
Institutional Responses
The riparian states of the Zambezi
River Basin belong to the major international organizations that monitor, manage and advocate for sustainable
Table 8.6
Selected Challenges and opportunities for Tourism Growth by Country
Country
Challenges
Opportunities
Angola
Safety and price concerns undermine growth of

leisure tourism.
Investment in travel and tourism largely
dependent on government investment with
bureaucratic delays that discourage private
investment.
A healthy growing economy that has improved travel and

tourism.
Opening up of airspaces with new aircraft acquired by
the national airline which offers direct flights within
Africa and has expanded growth into European airspace.
Programme to upgrade travel and tourism infrastructure
being pursued.
Botswana
Lack of investment in infrastructure such as the

road network is reducing access to some parts
of the country.
Lack of qualified staff for high-end hotels results
in most training being done outside Botswana.
Botswana has adopted the open skies policy and signed

eight Bilateral Air Services Agreements.
Acquisition of new aircraft by Air Botswana to service
more regional routes.
A growing European market coupled with regional market
arrivals which is showing greater positive growth.
Namibia
Declining numbers from some major source

markets such as Switzerland, UK and France.
Lack of specialist skills and expertise in the
travel and tourism industry.
Appreciation of local currency against major
currencies which may discourage mid- to budget
travellers
Emergence of a number of luxury tour operators over the

last 10 years.
More travel retailers showcasing their products at major
tourism expos allowing more small-scale operators
market access and linkages.
Focus on more domestic tourism to compensate for
declining international arrivals from its major source
markets.
Malawi lacks investment in long-term

infrastructure for its major attractions including
the lake.
Failure to attract large numbers of tourists
despite its product diversity.
Limited international connections and lack of
implementation of the open skies policy.
Governments drive to concession management of

certain protected areas.
Recognition by Government of tourism as a key
economic priority area in the economic Recovery Plan.
More international Tour Operators packaging Malawi.
Recent government decision to privatise national airline
and partner with another airline.
228
Malawi
High costs of travel packages compared to

competition.
Mozambique
Underdevelopment of basic infrastructure in

some areas.
Instability and corruption are barriers.
Increased government marketing efforts have positive

impact.
Reconstruction and private investment buoying travel
and tourism.
Positive developments for luxury tourism through public/
private investment and grading of accommodation units.
Zimbabwe
Economic instability has hampered economic

growth and investment.
Governments bilateral agreements with some

neighbours such as Zambia for free movement of tour
operators between the two countries.
Refocus of marketing efforts targeting the China and
elsewhere in Asia from the traditional northern focus.
Variety of attractions and world-renowned heritage sites.
Lack of redevelopment and face-lifting of

accommodation facilities.
RETOSA 2012; UNWTO Travel Barometer 2010; Euromonitor country reports 2013
tourism, such as RETOSA, UNWTO

and UNESCO, among others. These
helped with policy and technical assistance in areas of product development,
standards, statistics, monitoring and others. They advise and influence rather
than regulate international tourism. RETOSA, located in Johannesburg, was
created to coordinate and develop the
regional tourism potential and promote
regional products while providing a onestop-shop for both member states and
tourists (Tumbare 2004). The coordination by RETOSA has yielded a number
of positive achievements by collectively
marketing the region through events
and website. In addition, regional guidelines for classification of hospitality infrastructure have been developed while
the UNIVISA has been developed with
a timeline for implementation, and piloting in some Zambezi Basin states.
In addition, the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan
(RIDMP) has identified priorities for
strengthening of infrastructure within
TFCAs, which are the prime tourism
sites in the region and the Zambezi
Basin (SADC 2014).
Policy Options in the Zambezi Basin

Since the riparian states are part of the
SADC region, all the countries in the
Basin have benefitted from the regional
policies and strategies adopted over the
years.
Protocol on the Development of
Tourism 1998
SADC approved the Protocol on the
Development of Tourism in SADC in
1998, which was ratified and later
amended in 2009. The Protocol sets out
SADCs objective to build upon the regions potential as a tourist destination.
SADC intends to ensure even distribution of tourism development throughout the region and to create a favourable
environment for tourism development.
One of the objectives of the protocol is to use tourism as a vehicle to

achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the full realization
of its potential for the region. It also
seeks to optimise resource usage and increase competitive advantage in the region over other destinations through
collective efforts and c-operation in an
environmentally sustainable manner. It
also includes an institutional framework
for implementing the Protocol, specifying committees, units, duties, and procedures relevant to improving tourism
in the region (SADC 1998).
Regional Infrastructure
Development Master Plan -Tourism Sector Plan 2012
When SADC developed the Regional
Infrastructure Development Master
Plan which was approved in 2012, it
took into consideration tourism issues.
The Tourism Sector Plan presents an
approach for development of transfrontier conservation areas as key drivers of
tourism in the SADC region. The Sector
Plan analyses the current situation in
SADC regarding conservation, tourism
trends, and tourism policies, offering
projections for the future and an assessment of gaps between the current situation and infrastructure goals for 2027.
229
holidays, which the SADC region has

abundant potential to provide (SADC
2012d).
It then sets out a strategic framework for improvements to tourism infrastructure, as well as an
implementation strategy that prioritises projects, resource requirements,
and methods of implementation.
These infrastructure improvements intend to capitalise on growth in this
sector as it shifts toward experiential
230
Box 8.7
ZIMBABWE LAUNCHES ITS NATIONAL

TOURISM POLICY
Zimbabwe launched its new National Tourism Policy in July

2014. The policy is intended to transform the tourism sector
into one of the highest earners in terms of revenue generation. This policy is a revision of the one approved in 2012,
and makes it clear that tourism is government-led, but private-sector driven. The policy will treat the whole country as
tourism development zones and looks at other opportunities
such as religious, agro-industry, music, culture, township and
mining tourism to lure tourists and grow the sector contribution to total revenue. Another aspect from this new policy
is regional marketing of tourist resorts. In addition, the new
policy considers each region or province of the country as a
tourism hub. The policy provides for the enshrinement of
liberation struggle battles and events during the colonial period, and also pre-colonial sites. The policy seeks to rebrand
the various ancient structures throughout the country into
ancient cities to show the contemporary importance of historical times.
Extract from The Herald, Zimbabwe, titled, National Tourism Policy the great stride
Protocol on the Facilitation of

Movement of Persons
The SADC Protocol on Facilitation of
the Movement of Persons of 2005 is a
great step in the Basin as it favours
tourism development. It seeks to fulfil
the objectives of the SADC Treaty,
which require SADC to develop policies
aimed at the progressive elimination of
obstacles to the free movement of capital and labour, goods and services and
of the people of the region among
Member States. This liberalization of
visa regimes for SADC citizens and the
use of one entry port for tourists visiting TFCAs will create a customerfriendly environment (SADC 2005).
National Policies
All riparian states of the Zambezi River
Basin have developed strategies for positive growth of the tourism industry.
The tourism policy for most of the
Basin countries is to promote low volume high price/return/value tourism.
In terms of national marketing
strategies, this implies that the target is
the top end of market or the high-networth discerning traveller. The extent to
which the policy is implemented varies
by country but as international visitors
have the potential to provide a higher
yield than regional and domestic
tourists, it has driven the tourism industry in the Basin towards an international
market orientation.
Some riparian states have now
started to realign their national tourism
policies to reflect current trends and developments with a bearing to the
tourism industry. In Zambia, the government adopted a new approach in the
forest sector known as Joint Forest
Management aimed at increasing the
rights of local communities in managing
and benefiting from forests and areas
around them (ECZ 2008).
CHAPTER LINKAGES
OVERVIEW
The Basin is rich in wildlife and other biological resources that provide significant tourism attractions.
Developments in wildlife conservation through community-based natural resources management, transboundary conservation areas and protected areas are key to maintaining the Basins rich culture, flora
and fauna.
WATER RESOURCES
The biodiversity of wetlands is important to the Basin as it promotes the tourism industry. However
the current conversions of some wetlands for development purposes pose a threat to the tourism industry in the Basin.
Land is an important resource in the Basin as it supports both agriculture and tourism activities. It is essential for riparian states to ensure that agricultural activities do not encroach into areas designated for
the conservation of wildlife and forests on which the tourism industry and local communities depends
An important value of biological diversity in the Basin is that of supporting tourism activities, and these
activities are threatened by any damage or loss to biodiversity.
Climate change can affect tourism, but tourism activities also contribute to climate change. The Basins
protected areas which are a major draw card for tourism present a good source for carbon credits and
integrated management.
ENERGY
Tourism components including airlines, accommodation, tour operators and motor vehicles among
others are rely on electricity and fuel energy, without which the industry is unable to function. The
current shortage of electricity in the Basin has an impact on the tourism industry and requires resilience measures.
Human settlements provide infrastructure required by the tourism sector, including transport and
telecommunications. However, the rapid rate at which the Basin is urbanising also results in pollution
of natural resources and wetland ecosystems known to support tourism activities.
Tourism as an industry supports economic growth and development in the riparian states of the Zambezi
Basin, and is a key factor in development.
SCENARIOS
Riparian states have over the past decades derived economic benefits from tourism, and the success of
the industry in future will be anchored upon proper management of natural resources to ensure sustainability in addition to putting in place structures and guidelines for the development, marketing and
regulation of tourism facilities.
231
232
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Introduction
Industrialization is a critical engine of
economic growth and development. It
is a process by which a country or region transforms itself from a primary
resource based economy into an economy based on the manufacturing of
goods and services.
A thriving and vibrant industry is a
prerequisite for the provision of goods
and services, employment and sustainability. Without strong industries to create jobs and add value to raw materials,
underdevelopment will remain a challenge. Acceleration of industrial development and diversification of the
economy enables a country or region to
attain its development and poverty alleviation goals.
Experience has shown that all developing countries that have successfully made the transition from low
income to middle and high income status, such as China and the East Asian
Tigers economies as well as Latin
American countries, have done so by
relying on a strong manufacturing sector as the driver of an export-oriented
growth economy (SADC 2014). The
experience of developed countries of
the North and some of the emerging
powers of the South also shows that
playing a constructive role in the global
economy, attaining sustainable development, and increasing living standards cannot be achieved on a weak
industrial base (AU 2007).
This chapter analyses industrial development in the Zambezi River Basin
and discusses challenges that lead to
low levels of industrial growth. These
include low capacity utilization, weak
infrastructural base (poor road, rail
and air networks, power shortages),

lack of access to appropriate modern
technologies, lack of access to affordable capital for investment in industrial
development, as well as the small size
of Basin economies to engage in the
competition that comes with
economies of scale.
Despite these challenges, the Zambezi Basin can build on existing opportunities. These include a rich natural
resource base that can become a competitive advantage through value addition and beneficiation, the Basins
demographic dividend of youthful population and high literacy rates in some
countries, as well as the problem of infrastructure which is now receiving political attention (Madakufamba 2014).
State of Industrialization in the

Zambezi Basin
Industrial development involves the
production of an economic good or
service within an economy. Raw materials are converted into finished or semifinished products for domestic use or
for export. Many of these industries
consume large quantities of water and
energy and require factories and machinery. They also produce waste materials that may pose environmental
problems or cause pollution.
A thriving and vibrant industry is a
pre-requisite for the provision of goods
and services, employment and a sustainable economy. Industrial development
creates jobs and improves standards of
living and can also support and uplift
communities by creating employment,
boosting economic activity and helping
to increase wealth and reduce poverty.
235
236
The Zambezi Basin is characterised by low levels of industrial development. The structure of
production of the Basin countries is
characteristic of a developing region
where large portions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) originate from
primary production sectors, mainly
agriculture and mining. The contribution of these sectors is relatively high,
averaging close to 50 percent of GDP
(SADC 2014). Value addition and beneficiation in the primary sectors re-
Table 9.1
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
main low (SADC 2014). Other activities are still to be fully utilised as a
springboard for industrial development in the region such as the information technology sector which is
growing rapidly.
Major industrial activities in the
Basin concentrate on processing goods
using raw materials from agriculture
such as textiles and garments from cotton, as well as food and beverages, sugar
and various dairy products. Other activities include the manufacturing of
chemicals, fertilizers, furniture, hardware
products, glassware and other products.
As illustrated in Table 9.1, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to
GDP has never peaked 17 percent for
any Basin countries, and is lower than 5
percent in some Basin states from 2000
to 2011. The contribution of manufacturing to GDP has remained relatively
unchanged over the last decade, despite
some small upward and downward
movements across countries. This is
characteristic of countries that have not
yet had a structural transformation into
industrialised economies.
In Angola and Botswana, for different reasons, manufacturing measured as a
share of value added to total GDP has
never been significant, reaching 6.5 percent in 2011 and 4.2 percent in 2000 respectively. In Mozambique and Namibia,
the sectors contribution is higher, but still
low by international standards.
Contribution of Manufacturing to GDP (%)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4.22
3.85
12.07
11.45
8.30
9.24
12.42
3.90
3.78
10.42
14.57
13.59
8.21
10.32
13.44
4.00
3.54
8.66
15.54
12.36
8.01
10.31
14.41
3.60
3.37
7.84
13.73
12.28
7.87
10.16
10.38
4.94
3.08
9.22
14.21
14.24
7.70
9.90
27.50
5.28
3.42
9.80
13.76
15.54
7.68
9.26
8.04
4.88
3.23
10.60
13.63
12.73
7.72
8.95
6.92
6.20
3.82
10.25
12.61
13.31
8.52
8.89
15.81
6.25
3.62
10.03
12.33
12.84
8.87
8.29
15.93
6.50
3.83
10.47
11.49
8.68
9.53
12.16
3.56
9.56
12.44
11.76
8.22
9.80
10.97
SADC. SADC Statistical Yearbook 2012
11.96
7.95
16.06
Table 9.2
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Manufacturing Performance in
Zambezi Basin Countries
MVA per
capita
1990
(US$)
MVA per
capita
2010
(US$)
MVA per capita

(compound annual
growth rate)
1990-2010
26
124
21
15
92
19
36
106
66
171
17
52
348
28
44
34
4.8
1.6
-1.0
6.2
6.9
2.2
1.1
-5.5
UNCTAD / UNIDO database cited in SADC Industrial

Development Policy Framework 2014
Table 9.2 illustrates Manufacturing

Value Added (MVA) per capita in the
Zambezi Basin. Between 1990 and
2010, Malawi and Zimbabwe recorded a
decline in MVA per capita while only
Mozambique and Namibia registered a
growth rate of more than five percent.
Malawi and Zimbabwe experienced
a de-industrialization process between,
largely as a consequence of the Economic Structural Adjustment Programmes (ESAP). In the case of
Zimbabwe, the recent economic crisis
also led to shrinking of industrial
growth (SADC 2014).
Figure 9.1 shows how, as a consequence of the economic crisis, Zimbabwean firms in most manufacturing
sub-sectors operate well below capacity.
Export of Primary Commodities
The industrial sector in the Zambezi
Basin is characterised by a lack of diversification. This is reflected in its export
composition. Primary commodities represent between 70 percent and 91 percent of total exports, and minerals such
as gold and diamonds account for most
of this, more than agricultural and food
commodities (Table 9.3).
The top three export products are
dominated by resource-based, non-value
added products. Only in Malawi,
Namibia and Zimbabwe do agricultural
commodities figure in the top three ex-
Figure 9.1
Capacity Utilization in Zimbabwe

Manufacturing Sector
ZIMSTAT. Economic Statistics Indicators, 2014
port products: tobacco, sugar, fisheries.

From an employment perspective, however, agricultural commodities are
labour-intensive and contribute marginally to total exports and GDP.
While recognizing the need to
strengthen a foothold in export markets,
commodity exports are unlikely to sustain economic growth (SADC 2014).
Therefore, despite being abundantly endowed with natural resources, including
many industrial minerals and agricultural
resources, the Zambezi River Basin remains poor because these resources are
exported mainly in primary form, with
little return from such exports.
237
Table 9.3
Primary Commodities in the Zambezi Basin Countries

Primary
commodities
(%)
Of which (excluding precious stones

and gold/food commodities) (%)
Agricultural raw
materials
Minerals
Fuel
Top three export products (%)
2011
Botswana
(2011)
88
Diamonds excluding industrial (75%)

Nickel mattes (6%)
Gold, non-monetary excluding ores (1%)
Malawi
(2011)
90
Tobacco, wholly or partly stemmed/stripped (25%)

Tobacco, not stemmed/ stripped (14%)
Sugars, beet or cane, raw (13%)
Tanzania
(2011)
84
22

Precious metals, ore, concentrates (11%)
Manganese ores and concentrates
including manganiferous iron ores (10%)
Mozambique
(2010)
91
53
18
Zambia
(2010)
91
83
Copper anodes and alloys (64%)

Copper plate, 15mm+th (9%)
Copper ores and concentrates (3%)
Zimbabwe
(2010)
70
32
Nickel mattes, sintra (14%)

Tobacco, wholly or partly stemmed/stripped (13%)
71
31
Diamonds excluding industrial (16%)

Uranium ores and concentrates (16%)
Fish, frozen, fillets (7%)
2010
238
Aluminium, aluminium alloy, unwrought (52%)

Electric current (12%)
Natural gas, liquefied (6%)
2008
Namibia
(2008)
AU / UNECA. Making the most of Africas commodities: Industrializing for growth, jobs, and economic transformation, 2013
Note. In some countries, the sum

of columns 2, 3 and 4 does not equal
column 1. This is due to the fact that
column 1 includes food commodities
(such as cocoa and coffee), precious
stones, and gold, which are not represented in columns 2, 3, and 4. Angola
trade data older than 2000 is available
from COMTRADE.
Value Addition
As mentioned previously, the Zambezi
Basin is characterised by very low levels
of industrial development, with industrial output heavily concentrated on lowtechnology products such as food,
beverages, textiles, clothing and
footwear. In Zambia, for example,
growth in the sector is largely driven by
agro-processing (food and beverages,
63%) as illustrated in Figure 9.2. Other
minor contributions are from secondary

processing of metals, including the
smelting and refining of copper. Other
products include fertilizers, chemicals,
explosives and construction materials
such as cement, as well as wood products and paper products (Zambia Development Agency 2013).
In 2007, the Zambian government
launched Multi-Facility Economic
Zones (MFEZs) and Industrial Parks
with the objective of attracting major investment in export- and domestic-oriented manufacturing industries through
dedicated infrastructure and provision
of sector-specific investment incentives.
Government also promotes small and
medium enterprises in rural and urban
areas so as to enhance labour intensive
light manufacturing activities (Zambia
Development Agency 2013).
Figure 9.2
Composition of Zambia's
Manufacturing Sector
Zambia Development Agency. Zambia Manufacturing Sector Profile, 2013
Agro-Processing
Agro-processing involves turning primary agricultural products into various
commodities on various scales, ranging
from women drying or smoking fish to
manufacturing leather from reared
livestock to the production of beverages using extracts of cultivated crops.
The former can be described as a primary processing operation and the latter as a secondary processing
operation. In countries such as Zimbabwe the agricultural output serves as
both a source of raw materials for industry and a consumer of industrial
outputs (Feresu 2010). The agriculture
sector has the potential to boost industrial development and economic
growth, as Basin countries are mostly
agro-based.
While agricultural commodities
play an important role in national
economies, their full potential to boost
industrial development is yet to be discovered. Agricultural and food commodities contribute less in overall
commodity exports because they
are still being exported in unprocessed
form.
Table 9.4
239
Production of Tobacco, Raw Unmanufactured (tonnes)

2000
Brazil
Malawi
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Tobacco
Over the past decade, Zimbabwe,
Malawi and Tanzania have featured in
the top ten world producers of tobacco
(FAOSTAT 2014).
Although the quantities of tobacco
production are small compared to bigger producers such as Indonesia and
Brazil, Basin states strive to be net exporters of tobacco products such as cigarettes.
A threat to the cigarette
industry in the Basin is the international
campaign to ban tobacco, pushed by the
World Health Organization (WHO)
Framework Convention for Tobacco
Control (FCTC). WHO FCTC is an international treaty composed of obligations to address the health and
economic impacts of tobacco use, initiated due to pervasive cases in the United
States of products containing a high
quantity of chemicals. Zimbabwe and
Malawi are the only Basin states yet to
sign the treaty, due to significant Asian
markets for the dried, unprocessed tobacco and products, although it has
been argued that signing the treaty will
put producer countries at the table of
discussions and negotiations.
578 451
98 675
9 533
227 726
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
670 309 921 281

89 401 106 187
13 982
37 311
178 408 783 12
900 381
121 600
48 000
44 451
908 679
118 000
61 759
79 000
851 058
160 238
64 066
81 952
863 079
208 155
65 704
85 085
787 817
172 922
59 338
109 737
FAOSTAT. UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Statistics Division, 2014
2011
2012
951 933 810 550

174 928 151 500
60 329 61 500
111 570 115 000
Table 9.5
Brazil
Indonesia
Malawi
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Export/Import of Cigarettes (tonnes)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
782
21 942
0
218
661
480
30 865
-393
280
523
1 614
26 031
-440
990
1 552
2 572
22 600
-267
564
-4
2 823
27 885
-349
602
3 229
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2 743
3 768
35 047 40 009
-532
-892
71
130
1 690
45
5 082
45 928
-689
17
16
3 622
55 520
-1117
74
228
1 908
54 287
-763
377
4 385
284
55 599
-933
922
-6
237
56 309
-352
1 491
5 408
Cotton
Another industrial activity that is yet to
meet its full potential is the textile and
clothing industry. This industry can benefit from cotton production in the region. Significant price increases for
cotton on the world market since 2009
have made cotton production attractive
for African smallholders including those
in Basin states (Eliassen 2012). The net
production value of cotton products
such as cotton lint has been highly variable and inconsistent for all Basin states
for the past decade, but it remains an
important cash crop that would benefit
from value addition.
240
Table 9.6
Historically, Tanzania and Zimbabwe have been the top producers of

cotton among the Basin states. The
clothing and textile industry involves a
process from cotton cultivation to ginning cotton into lint which is then
spun into yarn. The yarn can be made
into fabric and further processed into
garments or products for sale. Most
Basin states end at the ginning process
and export cotton lint. There are few
textile manufacturers operational in
the Basin.
In Zambia and Zimbabwe, studies
have shown that the number of manufactures and employment in the textile
and fabric industry decreased significantly from the 1980s to 2000, a trend
that continued after 2000 (Eliassen
2012). The import of textile and cloth
products from Asia has resulted in a decline of national industry and employment opportunities in the formal sector
in both countries (Eliassen 2012). This
can be observed in the Basin where
many people in urban areas rely on
cheaper imports rather than buying
from domestic suppliers.
Net Production Value for Cotton Lint

(constant 2004-2006 1,000 Int. $) (1000 Int. $)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6224.18
1286.28
13863.28
16079.97
2782.66
59131.89
28584.08
182266.4
1556.4
1702.18
14149.12
50022.14
1807.79
116408.7
31442.49
182938.1
1429.2
1100.49
14292.04
57882.76
798.95
90039.85
36730.54
104331.9
1429.2
990.44
14577.88
37873.91
726.79
71460.2
44805.55
121482.3
1429.2
1046.18
20937.84
65028.78
4463.1
162929.3
54238.29
142920.4
1429.2
1119.07
20008.86
54309.75
47.64
180405.6
66958.21
107190.3
1429.2
948.99
22867.26
75747.81
110.84
62556.26
55024.35
102902.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1429.2 1429.2 1429.2 1429.2

1429.2
1429.2
713.17 843.23 643.14 571.68
428.76
428.76
25725.67 29298.68 27154.88 11290.71 20008.86 92898.26
78606.22 88610.65 88610.65 27154.88 51451.34 125770
101149.1 176649.6 125055.4 142920.4 77177.02 141491.2
64028.34 57596.92 62170.37 48878.78 60026.57 123254.6
114336.3 165787.7 114336.3 54309.75 128628.4 136346.1
Table 9.7
Export/Import Value of Beverages

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
-1 788
0
0
-264
-1 570
-887
-119
-4
-2 373
-10
-287
-98
-124
-5 024
-51
-1
-3 404
-389
-17
-98
-291
-8 784
-109
-2
-7311
-123
-17
-98
-530
-6579
-31
-16
-7 492
-383
-1 876
-274
-971
-17 451
-44
-40
-8 174
-355
-377
-1 325
-866
-13 022
-26
(1000 US$)
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
0
-23
0
0
-3 400
-122
-22
-1 534
0
-66
0
0
-9 500
-40
-262
-2
-31
-48
0
0
-8 000
-10
-113
-1 597
0
-6
0
-487
-13 149
-75
-131
-121
-6
-1
-26
-63
-3 000
-59
-448
-68
-3
-904
-10
-35
-376
-53
-565
-33
Beverages
Consumption of beverages remains an
important contributor to the food and
agro-processing sector. All Basin states
have been net importers of beverages
for the past decade. Angola however has
managed to significantly increase its export/import value of beverages by
manufacturing its own and relying less
on imports.
Small and Medium Scale Enterprises
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
play a major role in economic development in the Zambezi Basin. They account
for about 75 percent of total employment
in the manufacturing sector in southern
Africa (Ayyagari and others 2007; Calice,
Chando and Sekioua, 2012). This is exemplified in Mozambique where 28,478 of
the 28,870 enterprises in the economy are
SMEs (Nhancale and others 2009). In the
Copperbelt region of Zambia, following
the World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programmes, formal employment
declined and there has been a resurgence
of home-based enterprise, self-employment and other micro-economic activities
most of which are in the informal sector
(Kazimbaya-Senkwe 2004).
There is no universally accepted definition to what constitutes SMEs. However, the commonly used yardsticks are
number of employees and rate of
turnover, although it has been argued that
rate of turnover is too variable to be used
as a consistent indicator. The typically accepted numbers used to describe SMEs
Table 9.8
Micro firms
Small firms
Medium firms
SMEs Definitions,
Typical Numbers
1-9 employees
10-50 employees
50-250 employees
Fjose, Grnfeld, and Green. SMEs and growth in

Sub-Saharan Africa: Identifying SME roles and obstacles to SME growth, 2010
are indicated in Table 9.8, although the

exact numbers vary from country to
country as well as by economic sector.
SMEs are effective in the utilization
of local resources and adding value to
those resources using simple and affordable technology (GoT 2002). A study of
various communities in Mozambique has
shown that SMEs are very active in the
forestry sector by producing an array of
forest products including products such
as honey, commercial timber products,
charcoal and furniture (Nhancale and others 2009). Estimates from that study suggest that SMEs comprise 95.8 percent of
the formally registered enterprises in the
forestry sector.
241
242
Some of the major barriers to SME

development evolve around infrastructure
and sustainable financing. In the scope of
industrialization, there is need to include
SMEs in development policies as they
have the potential to increase manufacturing output and spur local economic
growth. Another challenge that is still
being addressed is the role of sustainability and social responsibility from SME enterprises. Although studies have been
done for some activities such as charcoal
and fuelwood, it is important to study and
understand the impact that some of these
activities have on the environment and
society so as to ensure sustainable growth.
Improved Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are also

essential. A diagnostic study to determine the prevailing infrastructure gaps
in the SADC region undertaken in
2011/12 revealed serious gaps in infrastructure provision, including insufficient energy supply to serve increased
production and to extend access, highly
priced, unpredictable transport and logistics services, especially for landlocked
states; lack of low-cost access to ICTs;
and inadequate meteorological services
for effective and efficient planning and
management of water resources, energy
production, transport services and other
climate-sensitive sectors (SADC 2014).
Challenges for Industrial Development

in the Zambezi Basin
Services
In addition to lack of sound infrastructure, the Zambezi Basin has a shortage
of services including financing, communications, and energy. As reported in
Chapter 6 on Energy, the Basin has encountered an energy deficit since 2007.
As industrial activity is energy intensive,
the shortage of energy is seriously hampering manufacturing processes.
The SADC Industrial Development

Policy Framework (2014) as well as the
AU Action Plan for the Accelerated Industrial Development of Africa (2007)
identify several challenges leading to low
levels of industrial growth in the SADC
region and Africa respectively. These
challenges are also reflected in the Zambezi Basin. They include weak infrastructure base, lack of access to modern
technologies, and lack of capital.
Infrastructure
An efficient and cost-effective infrastructure remains a prerequisite for industrial development in the Zambezi
Basin. However, industrial development
has been hampered by inadequate infrastructure, including road, rail and air
transport services.
Impacts of Structural Adjustment

Programmes
Another challenge relating to industrial
development in the Zambezi Basin was
the introduction of economic reforms in
the 1990s by the Bretton Woods institutions, called economic structural adjustment programmes. These were aimed at
promoting production and resource mobilization through commodity exports,
public sector reform, market liberalization
and institutional reform. They also sought
to limit the role of government in the
economy, promote private sector operations and remove restrictions in the economy and ensure market determined
prices. However, the structural adjustment
had negative impacts on the economies
of Basin states. Many industries in the
Basin restructured their operations resulting in workers getting laid off or reduced
working hours, leading to increased unemployment.
The structural adjustment programme not only affected industrial performance but impacted on social services
delivery. In the health sector for example,
there were increased cuts in health spending. Many people were no longer able to
afford health care due to reduced income.
Other resultant challenges included increased malnutrition in children, increased
incidence of infectious diseases, and
higher infant and maternal mortality rates.
Environmental Impacts of Industrial

Development in the Basin
The processes employed in the various
industrial activities such as growing and
curing tobacco, ginning cotton or tanning leather involve the use of toxic
chemicals and at times produce toxic byproducts. These chemicals tend to be
persistent organic pollutants or ozone
depleting substances that have longterm negative effects on the environment. Leather tanneries use chemical
recipes during the de-hairing process
that often result in toxic effluents being
released into the natural environment.
The commodity boom in countries
such as South Africa over the years has
seen in an influx of South African manufactured products in Basin State markets.
This has resulted in an increase in plastic
waste especially in urban and peri-urban
areas where household-generated waste
has been increasing. In the city of Harare,
the waste management system is still
based on old methods and technologies,
waste is not separated at the source and
old vehicles that do not compact waste
are used for collection (Feresu 2010). In
some settlement areas in Kabwe District
in Zambia, most of the waste is disposed
of indiscriminately in pits, open areas and
by burning (Kabwe Municipal Council
2010). A study done by the Government
of Malawi showed that majority of
household waste in major cities such as
Lilongwe, Blantyre and Mzuzu is disposed
of in pits near households (Government
of Malawi 2010).
Many city councils are struggling to

cope with waste management mainly
because of outdated infrastructure and
changes in behavioural patterns of the
consumers. The rapid build-up of
household waste often results in storm
drains being blocked exacerbating
flooding in settlement areas and the
prevalence of stagnant water. Flooding
in some areas such as Chowa has been
attributed to refuse that had choked the
drains and eventually the main canal
(Kabwe Municipal Council 2010). The
widespread disposal of generated waste
in open pits has been a cause of concern for soil and groundwater pollution. Leachate produced from waste
has been known to percolate into the
soil especially in unlined dumpsites
(Feresu 2010).
Opportunities for Accelerating

Industrial Growth in the Basin
The Zambezi Basin is endowed with
abundant natural resources which form
the basis for resource-based industries,
particularly mining and food-processing
industries. Important natural resources
include among many fisheries, forestry,
wildlife, farming lands and minerals.
These can be turned into a competitive
advantage through value addition and
beneficiation.
243
Map 9.1
Minerals in the Zambezi Basin
244
SARDC IMERCSA 2014. Data from SADC and ZRA. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and
Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin, 2007
The discovery of mineral resources

and proximity to major transport and
trade routes largely influenced urbanization and development geographical patterns in the Zambezi Basin. Today, the
major industrial settlements include
Blantyre and Lilongwe in Malawi; Tete
in Mozambique; Chililabombwe, Chingola, Chipata, Kabwe, Kafue, Kitwe,
Livingstone, Lusaka, Luanshya, Mazabuka, Mufulira, Ndola and Solwezi in
Zambia; and Chegutu, Gweru, Harare,
Hwange, Kadoma, Kwekwe, Marondera
and Norton in Zimbabwe. Map 9.1
shows major mineral deposits in the
Zambezi Basin.
Zimbabwes Great Dyke, which
stretches almost 530km across the
southern Zimbabwe Craton is extremely rich in platinum and
chromium deposits (Chenje 2000 and
NASA EO 2004). The dark patches indicate burn scars from fires as a result
of mining activities.
NASA-EO 2004
Infrastructure Enhancement Efforts

There are renewed efforts in the Zambezi Basin and southern Africa to upgrade transport and infrastructure
services, as a way of enhancing industrialization. This is in realization that an efficient, integrated, and cost-effective
infrastructure is a prerequisite for the
Basins industrial development.
According to the SADC Industrial
Development Policy Framework, the
structural transformation of the SADC
industrial sector has all along been hampered by inadequate infrastructure and
high-cost services. The region and the
Basin is not coping with current infrastructure requirements, including those
related to expansion of industrial capacity such as energy, transport and logistics
services, and ICTs.
An approach to boost industrial development in the Basin is to concentrate
development along economic corridors.
This approach can promote broader
economic development by lowering barriers and increasing flows of goods,
Map 9.2
services and people between increasingly urbanized centres. Recent corridor

development initiatives look at regional
transport routes not only as a means of
transporting goods and services or as a
gateway for land-ocked countries, but
also as a tool for stimulating social and
economic development in the areas surrounding the route (NEPAD 2013).
Major Economic Corridors in Southern Africa
JICA. Data Collection Survey for Economic and Industrial Development along Economic Corridors in Southern
Africa, 2013
245
Economic corridors accomplish this by

creating complementary infrastructure
such as feeder roads, promoting investment in industry and social facilities in
conjunction with critical nodal transport
infrastructure. In doing so, they develop
rural and border areas, increase the earnings of low-income groups, and create
employment. Political boundaries thus
cease to be economic boundaries and
spatial-economic regional planning takes
the lead (NEPAD 2013). See Map 9.2.
Table 9.9
Of relevance to the Zambezi

Basin are the Beira Corridor (including
the Sena and Tete Corridors), Nacala
Corridor, the North-South Corridor as
well as the Lobito Corridor. The Zambezi Valley Development Corridor is
not yet operational and presents an opportunity to unlock industrial development in the Basin. Examples of
envisaged largescale industries along
Economic Corridors are shown in
Table 9.9 below.
Examples of Largescale Basic Materials Industries Envisioned in

Southern Africa
Example
Description
Copper fabrication and the iron/steel industries

in Zambia (Nacala and North-South Corridors)
Zambia has enhanced its status as an important

base for manufacturing and supply of copper rod
in through the development of Multi-Facility Economic Zones and individual plants along the corridors in and around Lusaka and the Copperbelt,
while at the same time facilitating industrial development in the region.
Aluminium production in Mozambique

(Maputo Corridor)
Development of the Mozal and Mozal II Aluminium

Smelters in Mozambique. Mozal, located in the Beluluane Industrial Park, is a joint venture between BHP
Billiton, Mitsubishi Corp., IDC of South Africa and the
Government of Mozambique. Its SMEs linkage programme has helped local enterprises to supply
goods and services such as signage, air conditioners, cleaning chemicals, pumps, mosquito nets,
landscaping, and protective clothing.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production in

Mozambique (Beira and Nacala Corridors)
Natural gas discoveries offshore in Mozambique

(including the Rovuma Offshore Area) are large
and competitive, with potential for more to be discovered. The country is well-situated relative to
other potential LNG developments in the world.
Heavy chemical industries in Mozambique

(Nacala Corridor)
The Nacala Special Economic Zone, established in

2008 in the Nacala-Velha and port districts, has
transformed into a largescale petrochemical industry base, exhibiting synergy with other heavy industries including an oil refinery as well as steel and
cement factories. Other downstream industries
such as fertilizers and plastics have developed and
have produced important inputs for the agricultural
sector and agro-processing firms in Mozambique
and landlocked countries along the corridor.
Heavy chemical industries in Tanzania

(Dar es Salaam Corridor)
A new port has been constructed at Bagamoyo,

about 60 km north of Dar es Salaam, to respond
to the increasing international trade of the country,
and a large-scale industrial park has been developed in the port area where a heavy chemical industrial complex as well as other industries have
located.
246
AU / UNECA. Making the most of Africas commodities: Industrializing for growth, jobs, and economic
transformation, 2013
Beira Corridor
The Beira and Zambezi development
corridor initiatives aim to develop an
economic region linking Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe,
anchored to the port of Beira.
Key objectives are to re-establish
and upgrade the infrastructure linkages
inland and infrastructure development
projects include upgrading of:
the Beira port, electricity supply, gas
and liquid fuel pipelines;
the proposed Harare-Beira toll road;
the Harare-Beira railway line upgrade;
and,
the airports.
Projects already being implemented
include the Sena railway line commissioned in 2004. Development of the
Shire and Zambezi rivers into navigable
waterways is a strategic project aimed at
increasing transport options for access
to the sea for landlocked Malawi.
Map 9.3
The implementation of a number

of natural resources-based projects include reopening of Moatize coking coal
mine and development of a thermal
power station, agricultural development
in Dondo and Chimoio, as well as
tourism in the Eastern Highlands of
Zimbabwe and the Zambezi Valley. See
Map 9.3.
Major Development Potential along the Beira Corridor
JICA. Data Collection Survey for Economic and Industrial Development along Economic Corridors in Southern Africa, 2013
247
Zambezi Valley Development

Corridor
The Zambezi Valley Development Corridor cuts across the central provinces
of Mozambique and southern part of
Malawi. The central provinces which
form part of the Zambezi Valley Development Corridor are the water and mineral rich province of Tete, the
southeastern part of the Manica
Province, the southern part of the Zambezia Province and the Sofala Province.
The Tete Province and the southern
part of Malawi are endowed with one
of the biggest unexploited coal resources in the world. See Map 9.4.
248
Map 9.4
Coal is a major mineral resource

found along the Zambezi Valley Development Corridor. In addition, the central
provinces of Mozambique have vast and
unexplored resources such as iron ore,
magnetite, bauxite, nepheline syenite,
heavy minerals and fluorspar. Coal will be
used as the anchor sector in the Zambezi
Valley Development Corridor.
Two crucial elements of the development corridors are road and railway
links. The success of the Zambezi Valley
Development Corridor depends on the
railway connection from Moatize to Beira
(the Sena Line). The global mining company Vale was involved in the construction of a rail link from their mine at
Moatize to a new terminal at Nacala, a
distance of 915 km, routed through
Malawi (Nkaya), at an estimated cost of
US$ 4.4 billion. The rail line is designed,
built and operated to handle 22 million
tons per annum of coal exports from
Vale with the Nacala terminal designed
to handle 30 million tons per annum of
coal. See Map 9.5.
The Zambezi Valley Development Corridor
Mtegha and others. Resources Corridors: Experiences, Economics and Engagement; A Typology of Sub-Saharan African Corridors,
2012
Map 9.5
Investment Opportunities along the Zambezi Valley Development Corridor
249
NEPAD. Regional Integration and Trade Department, 2013
Table 9.10
An Analysis of the Zambezi Valley Development Corridor

Discussion
Context
Zambezi Valley Development Corridor

Natural Resources
Infrastructure
Coking Coal
Thermal Coal
Weak with limited rail Infrastructure
Currently being upgraded
Private Sector
Active Involvement
Multinational mining companies are driving project development-- Rio Tinto and Vale with a host of Junior Australian and
Indian exploration companies.
Business Case/ Anchor Projects
Quality of Resources drives business case.

High quality coking coal and thermal coal deposits.
Undeveloped resources or iron ore, nepheline, syenite and
heavy minerals.
Policy and Regulatory Environment
Incentivised FDI for natural resource projects

Government and Vale have agreed through the state institution
that oversees ports and railway development to upgrade the
Sena line via concession.
Experience gained in MDC with regard to PPP
Transport ministry integrate national transport system to use SDI
methodology to transform transport into development corridors.
Policy Support
Currently corridor modality in Mozambique supports governments political and economic agenda.
Corridor Authority
Not yet established, however the SDI Programme is based in

the Ministry of Transport.
Donor collaboration, DFID, World Bank and DTI (South Africa)
are supporting the SDI programme. Financial contribution of
$2.15 million over 3yr period from July 2010.
Stakeholder Participation
Programme not fully implemented
Linkages
No focus on the creation of local SMME products and services

largely from South Africa.
However experience from Mozal aluminium is intended to be
carried into policy on mining.
Cross Border Arrangements
Appear to be limited with most activity taking place in Mozambique-can be attributed to fact that the corridor is largely within
Mozambique.
Skills and Technical Capacity
The SDI unit is yet to be fully staffed.
250
NEPAD, Regional Integration and Trade Department, 2013
Dar es Salaam Corridor

The Dar es Salaam Corridor consists of
various primary industrial development
strategies that aim at boosting economic development. Investments
within the agricultural sector along the
Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor
of Tanzania (SAGCOT) and extension
of the SAGCOT in Zambia are in-
tended to develop a robust agro-industry which will result in the development

and promotion of agribusiness-centred
industrial clusters. These clusters will
include SMEs and Micro Manufacturing Enterprises (MMEs) engaged in
agri-business activities located in key
cities along the corridor in Tanzania
and Zambia (JICA 2013).
The Dar es Salaam Corridor will

see the development of iron and coal
mining and other industries downstream in the Ludewa area of Iringa
Province in Tanzania. The Bagamoyo
Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in
Tanzania will be developed along with
the construction of a new port, leading to development of heavy chemical
and other industries. In order to promote these developments, regional integration initiatives including regional
trade and transport facilitation
measures will also be implemented
(JICA 2013).
The Zambezi Basin has experienced
relative peace and stability over the
years. The current political stability enables Basin states to attract investment
in key sectors such as industrial develMap 9.6
opment, energy and infrastructure. Angola and Mozambique have experienced

rapid economic growth and infrastructural development since the end of conflict, showing that stability is a
prerequisite to economic and industrial
development.
This is most evident by the rehabilitation of the Benguela Railway in the
Moxico province of Angola that borders Zambia and DRC. The railway is
part of the Lobito-Lusaka Corridor
which will connect the Zambezi Basin
to other regions through three pillars
of intermodal transport (land, air and
sea). The major industries are: the Port
of Lobito, the Benguela Railway, the
International Airport of Catumbela
and the Lobito Oil Refinery (Port and
Corridor 2012).
Major Development Potential along the Dar es Salaam Corridor
JICA. Data Collection Survey for Economic and Industrial Development along Economic Corridors in Southern Africa, 2013
251
Policy Options for Sustained

Industrial Growth
252
Several regional development policy and

planning initiatives have been approved in
recent years to provide a framework for
the promotion of infrastructure and industrial development in southern Africa,
including the Zambezi River Basin. These
include, at continental level, the
New Partnership for Africas Development (NEPAD);
Africa Action Plan (20102015), prepared by the African Union;
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), a longterm plan for the next three decades,
prepared by the African Union with
the NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency (NPCA) and the African
Development Bank (AfDB);
Africa Agro-business and Agro-industry Development Initiatives
(3ADI); and
Accelerated Industrial Development
of Africa (AIDA).
Regional Policy Initiatives
Initiatives on industrial and infrastructure development at the level of regional
economic integration include the SADC
Industrial Development Policy Framework, and the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan
(SADC RIDMP) approved by Heads of
State and Government at their Summit
in Maputo in August 2012.
There have been transformative developments by SADC in this period, es-
pecially in 2014/15, when the focus of regional development was reviewed and adjusted, and a new policy was approved by
SADC Heads of State and Government
meeting at an Extra-Ordinary Summit in
Harare in April 2015. This is the SADC
Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap
which is expected to facilitate economic
growth and development, and ensure that
SADC member states harness the full potential of their vast and diverse natural resources. The industrialization strategy and
roadmap is anchored on three pillars: Industrialization, Competitiveness and Regional Integration.
The message from the industrialization summit was clear -- southern
Africa has the capacity to become a
dominant force in global affairs if the
region adds value to its vast natural resources before exporting them. The
strategy, whose drafting was spearheaded by a team of regional and national consultants in which the Zambezi
Basin states were well represented, aims
to provide the framework for major
economic and technological transformations at the national and regional levels
within the context of deepening regional integration. During the implementation phase, it will be important for
the region to focus more on key enablers such as infrastructure development and energy, as well as research and
development, to enhance the effectiveness of the strategy.
In addition, at the same extra-ordinary Summit in Harare in April 2015,
SADC leaders recalibrated the regional
integration targets as part of efforts to
align the regions development agenda
with new realities and emerging global
dynamics. Summit approved the Revised Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP), which has
been under review since 2010. The
RISDP is a 15-year strategic plan
agreed by SADC leaders in 2003 as a
blueprint for regional integration and
development, and the revised plan is
informed by the industrialization strategy and roadmap.
The Revised RISDP identifies four

main priorities to be pursued by the region from 2015-2020. Priority A seeks to
promote industrial development and market integration through strengthening the
productive competitiveness and supplyside capacity of member states as well as
improving movement of goods and facilitating financial-market integration and
monetary cooperation. Priority B is the
provision and improvement of infrastructure support for regional integration and
Priority D is the promotion of special
clusters of socio-economic programmes
of regional dimension. The above priorities are underpinned by Priority C which
is the promotion of peace and security.
National Policies
At national level, Zambezi Basin countries have formulated specific policies to
strengthen industrial development (See
Table 9.11), but the level of implementation and resources allocated differs between countries.
Most of these industrial policies target resource-based industries: leather,
agro-processing, clothing and textiles,
and wood products. Some countries
have designed or are designing mineral
beneficiation policies which, if successful, will have a major impact on the industrial landscape of their economies.
These countries include Botswana (diamonds), Mozambique (steel), Zambia
(copper), and Zimbabwe (platinum).
Zimbabwe, or example, has launched
the Industrial Development Policy
2012-2016 whose vision is to transform
the country from a producer of primary
goods into a producer of processed

value-added goods for both the domestic and export market (GoZ 2012).
Institutional responses have been
regionally and locally motivated by various policies and policy frameworks. At
regional level, Basin states have participated in the development and application of several policy frameworks.
A major new institutional development is the coming into force of the
(ZAMCOM) Agreement in 2011 which
has since been adopted by all eight
countries that share the Zambezi River
Basin. ZAMCOMs main objective as a
River Basin Organization (RBO) is to
promote the equitable and reasonable
utilization of the water resources of the
Zambezi watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof.
Table 9.11
Policies of Zambezi Basin States on Industrial Development
Country
Key document
Angola
Botswana
Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento 2013-2017

National Export Strategy 2010-2016
Economic Diversification Drive. Medium to Long Term Strategy 2011-2016
National Export Strategy 2013-2018
Industrial Policy and Strategy 2007
Namibia Industrial Policy 2012
Integrated Industrial Development Strategy 2011-2025
Commercial, Trade and Industrial Policy 2008
Industrial Development Policy 2012-2016
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
253
The ZAMCOM Technical Committee (ZAMTEC) is tasked with instituting

a monitoring mechanism for water abstractions and intra-watercourse transfers (ZAMCOM 2011). This will allow
ZAMCOM to assess impacts of various
industrial activities on watercourses, and
recommendations can be made to member states through the ZAMCOM
Council. Article 13 of the ZAMCOM
Agreement explains equitable and reasonable utilization of the Zambezi Watercourse, while Article 14 outlines
member states responsibilities. Both
stipulate the need for use of the watercourse to be based on principles of sustainable development to prevent
harmful use. ZAMTEC will provide assistance to ensure that the water resources are being used well, which will
influence industrial operations.
254
Sustainable Development and

Environmental Assessment
When the SADC RISDP was first
adopted and approved by Summit in
August 2003 with the ultimate objective
of deepening regional integration, the
framework required SADC institutions
to align their focus to achieving goals in
their respective clusters, including policies that mitigate environmental impacts
while improving trade and production
in the industrial sector.
Under the Environment and Sustainable Development priority area,
certain targets were set in order to
meet the ultimate goal To accelerate
economic growth of the poor majority; and to ensure equitable and sustainable use of the environment and
natural resources for the benefit of the
present and future generations
(SADC 2003).
In line with RISDP targets, Basin
states have continued to adopt policies
and change institutional structures in
order to meet sustainable development
targets. Consistent participation in the
Rio Conferences of sustainable development (1992, 2002 and 2012) by Zambezi Basin states has influenced national
policies on sustainability resulting in various institutional changes.

Since the Rio Summit in 1992, Basin
states have been enacting national policies that speak directly to the environment as a whole. Each Basin state has a
piece of legislation that requires Environmental Impact Assessments to be
undertaken as a prerequisite for various
industrial projects. Another common
practice among Basin countries is the
development of environmental management laws and regulatory agencies that
oversee implementation, most of which
entered into force within the last decade.
See Table 9.12.
It is through such frameworks that
countries have been able to monitor
ecosystems and report on the environment regularly to inform on changes occurring and provide recommendations
or action plans on enhancing environmental integrity, at the national level and
collectively at the Basin level.
Another major international initiative adopted by Basin states that seeks
to address the environmental impacts
caused by industrial activity is the
United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which
arose from the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The convention
recommends methods for cooperation
in reducing the effects of global warming by reducing carbon emissions which
by extension seeks to reduce emissions
from industry and other sectors.
Basin states are Parties to UNFCCC
as Non-Annex 1 Parties. Non-Annex
Parties are described by the Convention
as groups of developing countries that
are recognized as being especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, including countries with
low-lying coastal areas and those prone
to desertification and drought. This criterion speaks directly to all Basin states.
Therefore signing onto the Convention
and implementing its programmes to
cut GHG emissions will influence industrial activities within the Basin.
Table 9.12
Legislation that Guides Environmental Protection Per Country

Environmental Legislation
Implementing Agency
Malawi
Environmental Management Act, 1996
The Act mandated the Establishment and composition of the National

Council for the Environment, which advises the Minister on issues affecting the environment and recommends measures that can be
used to integrate environmental considerations in planning and development.
Mozambique
Environment Law (Law N 97 of July 30).

Approved in 1997
Through this law the National Council for Sustainable Development

was established. It is charged with overseeing implementation of the
law.
Angola
Law on the Environment (Law No 5/98 of

June 19, 1998)
Responsibilities are shared among Government agencies whose control or activity has influence on the environment, through the use of
natural resources, production and emission of pollutants and impact
on socio-economic conditions of communities.
Zimbabwe
This established the Environmental Management Agency, a statutory

body responsible for ensuring the sustainable management of natural resources and protection of the environment, prevention of pollution and environmental degradation, and preparation of
environmental management plans.
Tanzania
Environmental Management Act No 20,

2004. (Repeals the National Environmental Management Act No.19 of 1983)
National Environment Management Council continues to undertake

enforcement, compliance, review and monitoring of environmental
impact assessment.
Botswana
Environmental Impact Assessment Act

No. 6 of 2005
Provides for Environmental Impact Assessments to be used to assess

the potential effects of planned developmental activities; to determine and to provide mitigation measures if such activities as may
have a significant adverse impact on the environment; to put in place
a monitoring process and evaluation of the environmental impacts of
implemented activities; and to provide for matters incidental to the
foregoing.
Namibia
Responsibility is shared by Minister of Environment and Tourism

which coordinates at the national level; the Sustainable Development
Advisory Council which advises the Minister and promotes co-ordination and co-operation amongst Government institutions; Environmental Commissioner who is involved in the implementation of
environmental assessments; and environmental officers help to enforce the Act.
Zambia

(This repeals the Environmental Protection and Pollution Control Act of 1990).
The new Act renames the Environment Council of Zambia to become

the Zambia Environmental Management Agency, and empowers the
Agency to do all that is necessary to ensure the sustainable management of natural resources and protection of the environment, and
prevention/control of pollution.
The UNFCCC Conference of the

Parties held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997
adopted the Kyoto Protocol which entered into force in February 2005. The
Kyoto Protocol reiterates the objectives
of the UNFCCC by committing its Parties to set and adhere to international
emission reduction targets.
The Parties to the convention agreed
that developed countries will have a legally
binding commitment to reduce their col-
lective emissions of greenhouse gases by

at least five percent of 1990 levels over
the period 2008-2012 (SADC and
SARDC 2008). The Protocol created a
Carbon Market in order to meet these targets. There are three mechanisms that
drive the Carbon Market, which are:
1. Emissions trading;
2. Joint implementation; and,
3. The Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM).
255
In the Emissions Trading instrument, countries that have emissions exceeding their targets will be allowed to
buy emissions from another country
with emissions below its target while
the Joint Implementation mechanism
allows carbon emissions units to be
traded among industrialised countries
by supporting specific projects that
reduce carbon emissions. CDM is a
project initiatives that allows emissionreduction projects in developing countries to earn Certified Emission
Figure 9.3
Total Number of CDM Projects

(Registered and Requested)
256
UNEP-Ris. CDM Pipeline Spreadsheet, 2013
Figure 9.4
Total Number of Registered CDM

Projects in Zambezi Basin States
UNEP-Ris. CDM Pipeline Spreadsheet, 2013
Reduction (CER) credits, which can be

traded and sold, and used by industrialized countries to meet their emission
reduction targets (UNFCC). A recent
review report has shown that promoting clean technologies that lower pollution, and facilitating technology
transfer, have been the main rationales
in CDM project applications (ISS and
PACJA 2012).
The CDM has been branded as having the potential to significantly reduce
GHG emissions while making industries cleaner. While there have been
widespread concerns across the continent about some of its workings, most
notably the concern over incentives that
discourage countries from adopting
policies and practices to reduce carbon
emissions bur rather develop individual
projects in order to stay eligible for
CDM funding. Africa remains on the
periphery with just 2.94 percent of
CDM projects in Africa.
At the regional level Basin states
have adopted and observed various legislative protocols and strategies that aim
to guide industrial activities and encourage effective environmental practices.
The SADC Industrial Development
Policy Framework is based on the premise of the SADC bloc realizing the importance of industry in economic
development. The framework sets out
areas of regional cooperation to build
an industrial base which contributes to
sustainable growth. The framework also
recognizes the need for green interventions in industrial processes and sees
climate change impacts as an opportunity to build an industry set on low energy intensity, low-carbon emissions and
clean technologies.
An emerging policy that will address
industrial impacts on the environment
will be the SADC Regional Green
Growth Strategy and Action Plan for
Sustainable Development which seeks
to improve regional efforts in sustainability taking into account priority recommendations identified at the Rio 20+
Conference. Following a SADC
Progress Report on Sustainable Development in preparation for the Rio Conference, several gaps and shortcomings
were identified. Such a strategy will push
the regions industrial process towards
cleaner technologies and practices that
will mitigate environmental impacts
from industry. Environmental policies
and laws that aim to curb environmental
impacts from industrial activities are also
embedded in legislature that regulates
certain major industries in the Basin.
Reversing Negative Environmental
Challenges of Industrialization
Several measures have been taken at the
regional, national to individual levels to
reduce environmental impact from industrial processes. Many Basin states are
signatories or parties tovarious Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEA)
that aim to address issues arising from
industrial activities. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer was adopted in 1987 and
revised in 1990. By1992 it had been ratified by all Basin state countries.
The aim of the Protocol is to reduce the production and consumption
of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS),
particularly chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
from industrial processes, consequently
reducing their abundance in the atmosphere (SADC and SARDC 2008).
Malawi provides an example of domestication of the Montreal Protocol as
government is developing strategies to
address the issue of ODS. By 2010
Malawi had phased out the use of
methyl bromide in tobacco industries (a
major contributor to the national economy) and banned the importation of refrigerators and air conditioners that use
different types of ODS (GoM 2010).
In Zimbabwe, the Ozone office
was created and it has established a register of all licensed ODS traders and
trained customs officials to monitor
and regulate ODS at the borders (Feresu 2010). Latest available data for CFC
consumption per country shows that all
Basin states managed to greatly de-
crease CFC consumption by 2010 due

to Basin states domesticating the Protocol in national policies. However, in
some cases the phasing out of CFCs is
in part due to their replacement by the
use of other less harmful ODS such as
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC)
(Feresu 2010).
Figure 9.5
Trends of CFCs Consumption in the

Zambezi River Basin
257
UNEP Ozone Secretariat
Zambezi Basin states are also parties to the Basel Convention on the
Control of Transboundary Movements
of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, and the Stockholm Convention
on Persistent Organic Pollutants both
of which are intended to protect human
health and the environment. The Basel
Convention entered into force in 1992
after widespread global concerns about
the unethical dumping of toxic wastes
in less developed countries. The Convention seeks to provide guidelines for
the movement and regulation of toxic
substances.
The Stockholm Convention which
entered into force in 2004 addresses the
use of Persistent Organic Pollutants
(POPs), substances that remain intact
in the environment for long periods
such as DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane). Such conventions provide necessary platforms that guide
nations when developing their industrial
policies.
Table 9.13
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe

Ratified by Basin States
Montreal
Protocol
Kyoto
Protocol
Basel
Convention
Stockholm
Convention
Secretariat of the Basel Convention 2011; Secretariat of the Stockholm Convention 2008;
UNEP-Ozone 2014; UNFCCC 2014
258
Technological developments within

industry have helped to reduce the negative environmental impacts and steer
industry towards set targets as outlined
in various policies. Recycling and waste
management have been common responses to industrial pollution amongst
Basin States. In Zambia and Zimbabwe,
several large industries, individually or
in clusters, have been responsible for
the construction of waste sites and recycling centres in order to curb their en-
Box 9.1
vironmental impact. In Zambia, the

ECZ regulates waste generated by mining companies with a total of 69 decommissioned, 45 active and five
inactive waste-disposal sites being licensed in 2006 (ECZ 2008). The Zimbabwe Environmental Management
Act 2002 stipulates necessary requirements for waste disposal sites to be
used, thus influencing technological responses to waste management. Private
businesses have also contributed to recycling efforts in Zimbabwe and there
are plans to create a recycling centre in
Harare that will recycle PET and export
the flake plastic to China. Polyethylene
terephthalate (PET) is safe plastic used
for beverage containers.
In pursuing sustainable development, various measures can be taken
during the industrial process to reduce
waste and to mitigate the impacts from
the hazardous waste. Hazardous waste
manufacturing processes has been increasing due to the very fast proliferation of small-to-medium industries in
and around big cities, such as Harare
BEVERAGE COMPANIES BUILD

RECYCLING PLANT IN ZIMBABWE
Petrecozim is a beverage initiative that is premised on sustainable, extended producer responsibility. The company was
created by several corporations to provide a solution to the
environmental challenges focusing on post-consumer PET
disposal by providing a national springboard for the sustainable collection and recycling of PET bottles. It plans to build
a 6,000 sq m recycling site that would produce PET
flakes/chips. Flakes are intermediate materials which are used
as raw materials in fibre manufacturing, geo textiles, new bottle manufacturing and other downstream or end-use markets.
The Financial Gazette, Harare, 28 February 2013
and Bulawayo. Through the Environmental Management (Hazardous Waste

Management) Regulations, 2007, Statutory Instrument producers of waste are
required to prepare a waste management
plan specifying quantities and components of the waste. The regulation also
divides hazardous waste into four differFigure 9.6
ent categories denoting level of safeness

which determine the fee to be paid for
disposal or discharge (Feresu 2010).
Some companies in Zimbabwe have
opted for resource recovery practices as
part of a Waste Recovery, Recycling and
Utilization strategy which often involves
processing of waste using various types
Strategies for Cleaner Production
259
UNEP Ozone Secretariat
Figure 9.7
Examples of Implementing Cleaner Production in Industrial Processes
UNEP. Changing production patterns: Learning from the experience of National Cleaner Production Centre, 2002
Box 9.2
REGIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS AIR POLLUTION
Developing an Air Pollution Regulatory Framework in Southern Africa

The Harare resolution on the Prevention and Control of Regional Air Pollution in Southern
Africa and its Likely Transboundary Effects (1998).
Acknowledging the growing concern over air pollution and its potential effects, Zambezi River Basin
states with other SADC member states attended and developed the Harare Resolution (1998). Recognizing the impacts of poor air quality on human health and the various ecosystems within the region,
the conference resolved to develop a Protocol on Regional Air Quality and Atmospheric Emissions
taking into consideration, amongst many others, the importance of encouraging the use and development of improved technologies as well as enhancing regional co-operation.
260
Maputo Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Regional Air Pollution in Southern Africa
and its likely Transboundary Effects (2003)
This policy dialogue was attended by Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia
and Zimbabwe in Maputo. The meeting recognized the potential of increased air pollution from various
economic activities including those from the industrial sector such as thermal power stations, smelters,
cement factories, chemical industry; and their impacts on the Southern African environment including
biodiversity and climate change. Taking into consideration previous resolutions from the Harare Decleration (1998), the participating nations recommended to SADC states to develop and implement
initiatives that regularly monitor, assess and report on emissions through a regional network.
Lusaka Agreement (2008) - SADC Regional Policy Framework on Air Pollution
Attended by 14 SADC Members, this Policy Dialogue took into consideration the significant and increasing impacts of air pollutants that cause damage locally such as Particle Matter 2.5 (PM25), Sulphur
Dioxide (SO2) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and their strong correlation to industrial activities as well as other economic activities. With regard to industry the participants agreed to:
Regional co-operation through policy harmonization of national frameworks for air quality;
Promote the use of best available technology for new industrial plants in order to meet harmonized
standards including retrofitting of old industrial plants; and
Enact regulations that require industry to undertake environmental impact assessments.
of equipment and facilities. This approach not only saves money for the
company but also reduces the amount
of waste in the environment while decreasing the amount of new raw materials needed for other industrial processes.
Upcoming technological responses
in the Basin are based around concepts
of Cleaner Production and Green Technologies. Cleaner Production seeks to
reduce waste production by using raw
materials and energy sustainably in
order to minimise and prevent waste
during processing as opposed to an endof the pipe approach were waste is dealt
after production. This is has been intro-
duced through National Cleaner Production Centres to various SMEs in the

region with some reported success in
Namibia and Zimbabwe.
Cleaner production techniques involve paying attention to housekeeping issues such as updated inventories, regular
monitoring; retrofitting or installing
equipment; replacing raw materials with
less hazardous ones or recycled material.
UNEP. Changing production patterns: Learning from the experience of
National Cleaner Production Centre,
2002
Air pollution that arises from various economic activities of industrial de-
velopment has affected air quality

throughout the region resulting in regional responses that seek to address
this transboundary issue. The SADC Air
Pollution Framework developed
through UNEP and the Air Pollution
Information Network-Africa (APINA)
was guided and initiated by a long-term
process that started with the Harare
Declaration (1998).
Another influential measure with
potential as an institutional response
that can curb environmental impacts is
self-regulation by private entities and
industries who take it upon themselves
to do so. Several industries within the
Basin have adopted best practices in
order to meet International Organization for Standardization requirements
and gain ISO accreditation. ISO 9000
and ISO 14001 require industries to
produce quality goods in ways that
consider the environment. In Zimbabwe 30 companies had received ISO
14001 accreditation by 2010 (Feresu
2010). The ISO 14001 set of standards
requires companies to implement environmental management systems that
continually monitor and assess environmental impacts.
Conclusion
The challenge of industrial development in the Zambezi Basin is two-fold.
On the one hand, the Basin economies
need to strengthen their manufacturing
sector and diversify their economies beyond the natural resource sector. They
also need tomake the most of their
commodities by maximising upstream
and downstream linkages; channelling
increasing revenues from the mineral
sector into long-term investment in infrastructure; health and education; and
transforming the infrastructural configuration of the region into a well-developed, integrated and comprehensive
infrastructural system. On the other
hand, the Zambezi Basin needs to pursue its industrialization agenda in a sustainable manner. The implementation
of national, regional and international
policy and legal frameworks to which
countries have signed up to is critical in
this respect. It is critical for industrial
policies and strategies at national and regional levels to promote improved environmental management and adoption
of technological changes at the firm
level, as part and parcel of the overall
industrial development strategy.
261
CHAPTER LINKAGES
OVERVIEW
The industrial sector promotes economic growth as well as improving livelihoods of people in
the Basin. The major industrial activities in the Basin are agriculture, tourism, mining and manufacturing.
WATER RESOURCES
Water resources support most of the industrial activities. Industrial development is also responsible
for water pollution through the discharge of a variety of highly toxic chemicals, particularly the
mining industry and the use of agro-chemicals.
Agriculture is the largest productive sector in the Zambezi Basin, and most people in the Basin
depend on agriculture, which also provides raw materials for Agro-processing industries.
Industrial development depends on the biological resources which are used as raw material for
manufactured goods. Industrialization is also responsible for land degradation leading to loss of
biodiversity.
262

Air pollution that arises from economic activities of industrial development has affected air quality.
Gaseous emissions from industry pollute the air and the effluents pollute water resources
ENERGY
Energy plays an important role in industrial development in the Zambezi Basin. Mining and other
industrial activities use heavy machinery which demand abundant electricity supply.
Industrialization has largely influenced urbanization. Many industrial settlements have grown into
major cities in the Basin.
TOURISM
Tourism is one of the most important industries in the Basin providing employment to women
and youth, and relies on industry to provide goods that can support tourism.
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ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN

SCENARIOS
CONVENTIONAL WORLD / Business as Usual OR
SUSTAINABILITY WORLD / Policy Reform
Introduction
The challenges and opportunities presented by the environmental changes in
the Zambezi River Basin have long-term
implications, which require forwardlooking policy solutions. Informed
strategic decisions in the sectors and
themes assessed in this report requires
anticipation of what lies ahead and a
grasp of ongoing, emerging and latent
developments in these sectors -- water
resources, land and agriculture, biodiversity and forests, climate change and variability, energy, urbanization
and
settlements, tourism, and industrial development.
A desirable future is one in which
sustainable management and cooperative development of the Zambezi
Basins resources accelerate regional integration, improve land productivity
and agricultural yields, increase hydropower generation, and enhance
economic opportunities. As the future
unfolds, many challenges and opportunities could be encountered. The challenges and opportunities with both
certain and uncertain trends, have longterm implications, and hence require
forward looking policy solutions.
Moving into the future, the main
drivers of environmental change remain the same, that is, climate change
and human activities. There is need to
examine these changes beyond the
usual legislative cycles through development of various scenarios, as a
means of viewing the current and
emerging trends in the environmental
issues presented in previous chapters.
Scenarios are a range of future possibilities, good and bad, expected and
surprising, but always plausible.
10
The Zambezi River Basin scenarios

analysis was conducted to track the efficacy of environmental policies and actions on the achievement of selected
sustainable development goals in a
Box 10.1
WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?
Scenarios, by definition, are plausible descriptions of how the

future may unfold for the environment, organizations, our issues, nations and even our world, based on 'if-then' propositions. Environmental scenario planning helps to identify
unique interventions, simulate and rehearse policy decisions
that could have profound implications moving forward.
Scenarios planning highlights inter-linkages among environmental issues that may not be obvious. It is a structured and systematic approach to exploring what we do not know, instead of
what we already know, thereby increasing the possibility of achieving impact from environmental management actions. Scenarios
planning is the process of creating narratives about the future
based on factors likely to affect a particular set of challenges and
opportunities. Scenario analysis helps us to address discontinuity
and uncertainties of future environmental and socio-economic
developments. This is meant to facilitate the design and adjustment of robust policies that can withstand the test of time (Alcamo and others 2011).
Some examples of scenario analysis deployed in recent
decades include the long-term emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 and 2013)
that are in use, with their downscaled variants in the analysis of
climate change, its impacts and mitigation and adaptation options, to support international negotiations on setting long-term
targets. Within southern Africa, the Millennium Ecosystems
Assessment (2005) conducted both global and regional scenario
analysis with a special focus on the Zambezi River Basin,
among other major river and lake basins of the world.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has
used scenario analysis to present future trends and policy options
at different scales -- ecosystems, national, sub-regional, regional
and global. The most recent Africa Environment Outlook and the
Global Environment Outlook reports (UNEP 2011 and 2013) both
employed scenario analysis to present alternative environmental
futures to long-term environmental assessments.
265
shared transboundary resource. The

long-range assessment in this chapter is
intended to facilitate actions and decision for achieving the respective targets
and goals under each themes of the current report at all levels. Based on the
analysis contained in the previous chapters, this Scenarios chapter looks back to
find the direction that the basin has been
taking and projects the direction in
which it is moving. The chapter explores,
compares and contrasts two different
scenarios regarding the future development of the Zambezi River Basin.
Drivers of Change
The Zambezi Basin environment is
poised to change under both certain and
uncertain trends with the likelihood of
specific changes in water resources, land
and agriculture, biodiversity and forests,
climate change and variability, energy,
urbanization and settlements, tourism,
and industrial development -- as dictated
by key drivers including population,
transboundary governance of basin resources and institutions, economic
transformation, social and cultural
trends, technology and climate change.
These factors will determine the trends
and magnitude of demand on environmental goods and services occasioning
266
Table 10.1
Country
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Total
Population in the Zambezi River Basin

Total National
Population
2000
Projected
National
Population
Population
National
in the Basin
1998
Projected
Population
in Basin
2025
13 399 000
1 651 000
10 475 000
17 240 000
1 900 000
31 900 000
9 886 000
11 696 000
98 147 000
25 940 000
2 270 000
18 695 000
26 730 000
2 460 000
56 090 000
18 285 000
17 395 000
167 865 000
487 200
1 000
9 821 400
399 870
60 890
1 271 920
7 046 250
9 050 000
31 741 530
950 080
16 500
18 071 955
6 187 455
82 438
2 200 420
11 979 610
11 674 065
51 161 960
Spatial data from SADC/SARDC (Hiriji and others, eds). Defining and Mainstreaming
Environmental Sustainability in Water Resources Management in Southern Africa 2002;
SADC and SARDC. Southern Africa Environment Outlook,2008
attendant changes in the basins natural

resource base and sustainable development outcomes.
Population
According to the Zambezi River Basin Atlas
of the Changing Environment, the demography of the basin will remain the main
driver of environmental change. Population of the basin in 1998 was 31.7 million
rising to an estimated 40 million in 2008,
with some 7.5 million people living in
urban centres. The Atlas notes that the
basin population was estimated to be 47
million in 2012. The total population of
the eight countries of the Zambezi Basin
is projected to reach 168 million by 2025,
of which approximately 51 million will be
in the basin (SADC/SARDC and others
2012). See Table 10.1.
Some recent scenario assessments
including International Futures (PRB
2013) projects population as presented
in Figure 10.1.
Although the projected population
growth is modest, averaging 2.09 per
annum, the Zambezi Basin can expect
significant increases by 2040 due to its
youthful population. For example,
Malawis youthful population of which almost half (46 percent) is under the age of
15 will contribute significantly to the
countrys population growth. The conFigure 10.1 Projected Population
for Zambezi Basin Countries Based on
International Futures and UN Scenarios
Hughes 2010; UNDESA 2011; PRB 2013
tainment of the AIDS pandemic and declining HIV prevalence rates as well as improving medical care will also contribute
to longer life expectancies and the growth
in populations. Zimbabwes HIV prevalence rate declined from 29 percent in
1997 to 16 percent in 2007 (Halperin and
others 2011).Although the Zambezi Basin
will remain largely rural, urbanization
rates will increase (Chapter 7 Table 7.1
and Figure 7.1).
In Botswana and Angola, the urban
population already constitutes more than
60 percent of the total national population (SADC and SARDC 2008). Mining,
value addition and other emerging industrialization activities will remain the key
drivers of Zambias urbanization. According to UN-Habitat (2010), more than
80 percent of the Zambias urban residents are concentrated in the two
provinces of the Copperbelt and Lusaka.
Economy and Infrastructure
The demand for environmental goods
and services will be driven by interlinked demographic and economic
trends across countries. Assessing the
future risks and opportunities for sustainable basin management thus requires a consistent set of assumptions
about the economic and social development of the region.
Most countries in the basin are urbanizing rapidly, putting pressure on finite resources. The high demand for
energy, water, food and other ecosystem
goods and services will invariably put
pressure on the sub-basins and specific
natural resources. Land for farming by
the growing population, water for hydroelectric power generation and biodiversity
resources will be most affected going forward, unless deliberate efforts are made
at multiple scales to address the pressure.
Mining, for instance, is already escalating
as an economic activity in the Basin with
far-reaching land-use changes as a result
of mining activities, notably in Zambia
where copper mining has been revived.
Urbanization will continue to mirror the
economic activities.
The new opportunities for mining

at Kanshanshi and Lumwana mines in
Solwezi in north-western Zambia has
led to a population influx, resulting in
the rapid but haphazard expansion of
the town (SARDC 2013). This has resulted in conversion of surrounding
forests into peri-urban farmlands. The
trend is expected to continue under current trajectories. Effects of population
pressure, climate change and economic
activities in sub-basins will be equally
marked. Sub-basins such as Luangwa
River, Lake Kariba, and Kafue and
Kabompo rivers are receiving more
population due to expansion of mining
operations. Environmental effects such
as water pollution will necessitate strategic measures to curb the impacts.
Industrial activities are expected to increase as well due to investments in both
primary and secondary production and
service industries. With this scenario, new
jobs will be created, population distribution patterns and movement will certainly
change and waste generation is likely to
be a concern to both rural and urban environments.
The Zambezi Basin is at the centre of
major infrastructure projects in support
of SADC regional integration efforts.
The SADC Infrastructure Master Plan
has been concluded and Member States
are instituting efforts to implement the
flagship projects under both national and
regional arrangements. The SADC Infrastructure Vision 2027 is anchored on six
pillars consisting of energy, transport, Information Communication Technology
(ICTs), meteorology, trans-boundary
water resources and tourism (Trans Frontier Conservation Areas), which constitute
the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Programme.
267
The Master Plan will dictate the

basins environmental changes going
forward in many ways. Other projects
include the Kazungula bridge which will
significantly enhance the movement of
traffic and people across the Zambezi
Basin; the Batoka Gorge and MphandaNkuwa hydropower projects which
will result in the inundation of large
areas; airport and hotel projects in the
Victoria Falls and Livingstone areas; expansive TFCAs such as the KAZA, ZIMOZA and Four Corners project,
which will re-open wildlife migration
corridors while also allowing the free
movement of tourists across borders.
268
Technology
Technological developments are already
apparent and will highly likely propel
other changes in demography, social
spheres, production and consumption as
well as governance in ways that will occasion significant changes in the environment many in positive and negative ways.
Demand for natural resources for industrial processes and human needs will impact on the integrity of Basin ecosystems
and they may offer opportunities for
more efficient use of natural resources,
cleaner production techniques and improved environmental management. Additional risks may prevail as a result of
these technological developments. The
technological changes include and increase in penetration and use of mobile
phones, advances in ICTs, and generation,
dissemination and use of new production

and conservation technologies in land use,
water management, tourism and other
sectors. Some technologies may pose
health risks to the human population.
Technology will improve environmental management through more effective monitoring and assessment
techniques, such as remote sensing, the
transformation of ICT, biomaterial engineering, rapid advances in biotechnology and genetic modification, and more
efficient and faster transportation. Mobile telephone and mobile banking will
continue to transform the basin, especially the rural areas where benefits will
include improved extension services for
agriculture, access to modern banking
and finance, access to health services
and many others.
Responses to challenges such as climate change and other environmental
degradation processes may be better addressed through such technological
changes. The pace of technological
change, will however depend on improvements in human resource capacity, science
and technology and investments from
both local and external sources. Countries
with favourable investments (proportion
of national GDP allocated to research
and development) will arguably realize
better technological change outcomes on
environmental conditions.
Environment
Changing environmental conditions in
the basin will present both opportunities
and challenges for the integration and cooperation in basin management. Climate
change adaptation and mitigation measures in the form of carbon credits and the
adoption of clean bio-fuels will significantly affect the Basin. The SADC region
in general and the Zambezi River Basin in
particular, are expected to experience
higher land and ocean surface temperatures, which could affect rainfall, winds,
and the timing and intensity of weather
events. Although the Basins contribution
to global warming remains insignificant,
this may change over the next decades un-
less appropriate measures are taken.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the Basin
countries, mainly from the planned thermal power stations, are projected to rise
as economies modernize with a possible
threefold increase in the next 50 years
(SARDC/SARDC and others 2012). See
Figure 10.2.
Towards 2040 and beyond, climate
change will likely pose a number of risks
to Zambezi River Basin goals for regional economic development with incidences of increased frequency and
severity of floods, cyclones, and
droughts. These are likely to damage infrastructure, expose the population to
health risks, damage agricultural farmlands and livestock, disrupt livelihoods,
and cause loss of life and other economic losses -- unless effective resilience strategies are implemented.
Already, there are significant efforts
to blend petroleum fuels with ethanol in
Zimbabwe and Malawi, and the Basin
has the climatic conditions and land resources that can be used to grow such
fuels. will have a great bearing on industrialization, environmental pollution
control and other basin ecosystem
transformations. There are indications
that the water flows and other ecosystems services of the basin will be affected by environmental change (IPCC
2013). Even more dramatic impacts will
be witnessed in hydropower generation
(International Rivers 2014).
Governance
The Zambezi Basin is at the centre of
regional integration in SADC. There are
many institutional and governance issues that will guide the future of the
Basin. The Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM), Zambezi River
Authority (ZRA) and SADC are important institutions that are setting the path
for the future development of the basin.
There are many regional protocols that
seek to bring convergence to national
policy and legislative instruments.
The socioeconomic and political
landscape in the basin will continue to
Figure 10.2 Population and GHG Emissions Profiles for

Zambezi River Basin into 2050
International Futures approach
witness transboundary issues that demand governance interventions at all

levels. Policies and institutional
processes as well as decisions taken now
and in the future will dictate the success
of initiatives such as protected areas, comanagement agreement with local communities, and effectiveness of state and
non-state agencies that serve to promote environmental management.
The role of civil society will broaden
and become instrumental in environmental management through education,
capacity building, practice, lobbying and
support for effective environmental governance. This will change due to a momentum already started in the growing
level and sources of funding for civil society stakeholders and their increasing
access to technology. With improvement
in local, national and regional political
custodianship, changes are expected in
the extent and type of citizen engagement with environmental management
while the improving regional geopolitical
stability and integration of markets will
open space for more regional trade, cooperation and transboundary ecosystems
management. This will increase as
level of trust in governments, businesses
and regional entities such SADC, ZRA
and ZAMCOM.
269
The Integrated Water Resources

Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin of
2008 has set the pace for extensive
changes through cooperation between riparian countries. It emphasizes broadening basin management through
participation of stakeholders including
womens groups, youth groups, small
farmers, business associations and local
authorities, as well as national and regional
level decision-makers. Other governance
issues to shape the future of the Basin include transboundary harmonization of
policies and regulations on resources such
as water, minerals, water and land.
Scenario Analysis Approach
270
The Zambezi Environment Outlook

scenarios were aimed at developing a
basin-wide information and decision
basis at multiple levels addressing transboundary futures under the themes and
selected sectors. The scenarios were
largely qualitative and took the form of
narrative storylines. Basin level storylines were developed during a stakeholder scoping workshop. The scenarios
were based on the context of the Basin
and recent development in especially
transboundary investments and institu-
tional processes such as the establishment of the Zambezi Watercourse

Commission (ZAMCOM). Regional
and local drivers were chosen, emerging
issues discussed and backcasting
methodology used in which stakeholders and experts selected desirable end
points and identified sets of short-term
and medium term actions aimed at
achieving these desired futures under
each scenario.
The workshop and subsequent narrative development and reviews stimulated a critical evaluation of the key
uncertainties and main developments in
the Zambezi Basin from 2015 to 2040.
The storyline presented in this chapter is
therefore a combination of high-level regional developments and local ecosystems
specifics. Similar methodologies were
adopted by the Southern Africa Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (SAfMA)
(MA 2005). The shared insights that
emerged are presented on this chapter to
aid decision-makers at multiple scales. Selected quantitative scenarios have also
been adapted to complement thematic assessments from existing published scenarios. The final narrative however took the
form of highly integrative but largely
qualitative process.
The Scenarios
SCENARIO
Conventional World/ Business as Usual
The Conventional World Scenario (CWS) depicts plausible future environmental developments along a trajectory representing a continuation of current trends without
major policy shifts. In the context of transboundary management of the natural resources in ZRB, CWS explores the potential trends towards achieving environmental
and sustainable development targets associated with a world that continues to develop
in a Business As Usual (BAU) pattern. No explicit policies to address main environmental and human development outcomes and impacts are in place.
The scenario features a continuation of less harmonized and ineffective set of
policy and practice within sub-basins and across boundaries. The scenario projects a
continuing increase in extractive industries which require access to environmental
goods and services and are largely driven by the same entrepreneurial and market
dynamics which have been witnessed over the past few decades. As is already happening, this scenario is characterized by continued national and localized approach
to basin resource extraction and management with isolated cases for joint and transboundary efforts but with limited, if any, consideration for transboundary outcomes
of environmental actions for regional development.
SCENARIO
Sustainability World/ Policy Reform
The Sustainable World Scenario (SWS) depicts a future where deliberate attempts
are made to manage the environment in ways that meet nationally, regionally and internationally agreed development goals with clear targets for basin sustainability.
Some of these goals relate to regional and international protocols, targets and specific
milestones relating to water resources, land and agriculture, biodiversity and forests,
climate change and variability, energy, urbanization and settlements, tourism, and industrial development and other sustainable development outcomes.
The scenario explores the transformative actions required to bring about a more
environmentally sustainable future. SWS is based on the assumption that Zambezi
Basin environmental management will proceed in a manner that limits degradation
and associated negative social, economic and ecological transboundary outcomes.
The main objective of the scenario is to reveal the choices of policies and programmes that would ensure the attainment of both the desired environmental and
related human development outcomes in each country and between the basin countries.
With the strong momentum already started by the drivers playing out in current trends (CWS), the force to deflect such trends to meet transboundary environmental targets is expected to remain a daunting challenge. This is largely due
to population dynamics, social changes, cultural inertia as well as technological
and economic growth as well as competition for scarce resources between and
among countries and sectors. This is the desirable route to Zambezi futures but
achieving it would require considerable policy realignment, investments as well as
with mind-set and behavioural change of individuals, communities, institutions
and nations. The ZAMCOM strategic plan lays out future actions that typify
this world and investments in the action plan is a sure way to track this trend. The
scenario reveals what it would take to overcome barriers to meeting transboundary sustainability goals (UNEP 2012). Figure 10.3 illustrates the scenario framework adopted.
Elaborating the Scenarios

The scenario-building process adopted
an integrated approach underpinned by
the DPSIR-framework for qualitative
and quantitative elaboration of the storylines. For the two broad scenario
groups, a back-casting approach was
used to link future images of selected
environmental themes with actions and
decisions taken along the way towards
specific targets. Figure 10.4 illustrates
the overall approach used to elaborate
the scenarios. Underpinning the elaboration was differential shifts under each
scenario of social values and regional efforts towards sustainable transboundary
management of the Zambezi River
Basin resources.
Figure 10.3 The Scenario Framework
271
Figure 10.4
The Scenario Elaboration Framework
Adopted from UNEP. Global Environment Outlook 5, 2011; Africa Environment Outlook 3,
2013
The assessment extrapolated the

connections in current trajectories to future (2040) human development outcomes, ecological integrity and impacts
and linkages to achievement of sustainable natural resource management targets at basin and sub-basin scales. The
storylines embedded transformative regional and local actions (responses) constituting a comprehensive and diverse
portfolios of policies and practices that
would harness opportunities for sustain-
272
Figure 10.5
Basin-Wide and Thematic Comprehensive

Coverage in Zambezi Environment Outlook
Scenario Assessment
World Bank. Zambezi River Basin Multi-sector Investment Opportunities Analysis, 2010
able basin management. The key drivers,

namely demography, economic change,
social change, culture and tradition,
technology and climate change were interwoven in the storyline to capture
their separate and collective effect on
key indicators and environmental outcomes along the pathways.
The Zambezi Environment Outlook scenario analysis was intended to
seek alternatives for shifting the prevailing CWS pathway into the desirable
SWS. To ensure thematic comprehensiveness and basin-wide coverage, the
assessment adopted the integrated approach illustrated in Figure 10.5.
The scenario assessment thus involved:
! Selection of themes consistent with
transboundary basin management as
a focus of the report and in line with
the findings from the thematic chapters;
! Use of relevant models or results
from existing scenario analyses in
order to provide qualitative and quantitative trends and storylines for each
of the thematic areas: land and agriculture, water resources, tourism, biodiversity and forests, climate change
and variability, urbanization and settlement, industrialization and energy;
! Identification of medium- and longterm targets/goals including local,
national, sub-regional, regional and
global as well as environmental limits
consistent with the scenario time line
of 2040;
! Analysis of possible synergies and
trade-offs between the goals and targets in different biophysical, macroeconomic,
sociological
and
institutional domains by linking the
different models/scenario findings
with the goals and transboundary
basin management targets in order to
construct the narrative; and
! Identification and analysis of transformative policies and practices
necessary to realize long-term goals
shift the trends towards sustainable pathways.
In doing the above, the Zambezi

Environment Outlook scenario process
sought to understand the state of the
Zambezi River Basin and the future the
Basin may face by identifying the tensions and inconsistencies that suggest
ecological, political or economic risks in
the near and middle term in selected
themes. This was also meant to learn
about the dynamics of Basin systems.
The CWS in particular clarified the
goals/priorities and investigated the
leverage that may have been there in
shaping the Basins future.
Exploring Selected Issues in the

Zambezi Basin
Climate Change and Variability
The Zambezi Basin countries, like other
countries in southern African, are working towards addressing climate change
impacts on the environment and socioeconomic activities through largely adaptation in relation to vulnerability, exposure
and the effects of climate change and
variability. All in all, the target is to address
and minimize consequences of global
warming at the basin and country level.
Globally, concerns of reduction of global
warming dominate with the UNFCCC
goal of limiting the average global temperature increases to 2C above the pre1990 levels. The achievement of these
targets will heavily depend on the actions
and policy decisions to be made towards
2050. Under different scenarios, the 2040
picture and pathways from now going
forward will differ as illustrated below.
Conventional World
Current trajectories and predictions of

Zambezi Basin climate show a rise in average temperature by 2oC, more frequent extreme events causing at least
four drought and/or flood occurrences
in every 10 years, and much longer midseason droughts. As much as the rest of
the world, the riparian countries of the
Zambezi Basin are not likely to meet
their targets for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. The basin is further burdened by a surge in the levels of shortlived climate pollutants resulting mainly
from widespread bush fires. The basin
would be overwhelmed by the changing
climate in its coping mechanisms for
flood control and drought management.
The Zambezi River Basin is expected to continue experiencing "drier
and more prolonged drought periods".
Rainfall is expected to decrease by between 10 and 15 percent over the basin
(IPCC 2013). A significant reduction in
the amount of water flowing through
the river system will likely affect all eight
riparian countries. As from 2015, the
implications would be profound and effect on hydropower operations may intensify due to reduced reservoir inflows,
increased extreme flooding events occasioning uncontrolled releases, and risks
to dam safety, reduced power production and increased sediment load to
reservoirs. There will likely be a significant impact on financial and social fabric due to extreme events, dam failures
and ecological damage. Changes in
ecosystems result in new diseases for
human beings, crops and even wild flora
and fauna. Diseases such as malaria may
likely spread towards higher ground
such as Harare where it was previously
not present (SADC and SARDC 2008).
The cost of adaptation to climate
change is expected to escalate for individual countries and sectors. Under the
two scenarios, the effect of climate risk
challenges will differ in the riparian
countries as depicted in the qualitative
illustration in Figure 10.6.
273
Figure 10.6
Future Qualitative Reflections of Climate Challenge Risks in Basin Countries

under Conventional and Sustainability World Scenarios
Key: A Angola; B Botswana; Ml Malawi; Mz Mozambique; N Namibia; T Tanzania; Za Zambia; Zi Zimbabwe
274
Risk of climate change challenge:
In different countries, policies will

be responsible for the climate change
risk outcomes that will play out in the
two scenarios. The risks will be as a
compound result of differences in climate change adaptation and mitigation
plans, level of coordination of national and basin-wide actions, and effectiveness of regional and global
institutional processes that are aimed
at sustaining adaptation and mitigation
strategies.
Sustainability World
Under the sustainability world scenario,

there is increased resilience of communities, sectors and ecosystems in each of
the sub-basins. Globally countries are
cooperating under the UNFCCC agreements. Regionally the SADC climate
change action plan has over the years informed country, sub-basin and Basin actions for both mitigation and
adaptation. Cost of adaptation has remained manageable as efforts began
early before 2020.
The measures taken over the years

have significantly reduced climate
change impacts on human security issues such as water stress, land use and
food security, natural disasters and environmental migration. Countries operate
with manageable levels of conflict over
Basin resources, low levels of economic
damage and risk to coastal cities and
critical infrastructure, and limited environmentally induced human migration.
Prevailing early warning systems have
made it possible to manage effects of
crop damage associated with recurrence
of droughts, more and more people.
Subsistence farmers and communities
living in vulnerable sub-basins and
ecosystems have built adaptive capacities over the years.
There were significant milestones
over the years that led to these positive
outcomes:
Communities, national and regional
bodies had been prepared to fully exploit development opportunities
under global climate change proto-
cols for afforestation and reforestation at Basin and sub-basin levels;

Development of regional capacity to
adapt to climate change and make
use of the development opportunities associated with global climate
change mitigation including more
Clean Development Mechanisms
(CDM) projects launched steadily
from 2015 to 2040;
Drought forecasting in most sectors
including water were mainstreamed
in planning and management;
Improvement in flood management
and mitigation mechanisms at national, sub-basin and basin regional
scale;
Improvement in regional and national drought management;
Policy supports the development of
drought management plans, including local irrigation development, improved food stock logistics, crop and
livestock adaptation and drought insurance;
SADC and ZAMCOM had set up a
regional centre of excellence to document and support activities for effective adaptation to climate
variability and climate change;
Strategies to deal with climate variability and climate change in national
socio-economic development planning had been fully mainstreamed in
all riparian countries by 2018;
There had been a build-up of appropriate knowledge base and technologies on climate variability and climate
change and their impacts on land,
forests, biodiversity, water and other
resources and sectors.
Land and Agriculture

The Basin countries are at different
stages of implementing the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development
Programme (CAADP). A commitment
to allocate up to 10 percent of national
GDP to agricultural development was
agreed under the Maputo Declaration to
yield an annual growth rate of six percent in agricultural productivity. Agricul-
tural development essentially targets increase in land under irrigation and agricultural productivity for food security.
The various country national investment
plans have specific targets for managing
land resources in specific sub-basins.
The two scenarios would imply differential achievement of key land and agriculture outcomes by 2040.
The SADC targets for agriculture
and food security which mirror CAADP
goals are propelled by the 2004 Dar es
Salaam Declaration on Agriculture and
Food Security to boost production and
improve access to food in the region.
Under the Declaration, the priority areas
in the short term (2004-2006) and
medium-to-long term (2004-2010) to
achieve food security for the region have
been identified. The short-term measures include availability and access to
key agricultural inputs for farmers, consisting of improved seed varieties, fertilizers, agrochemicals, tillage services
and farm implements. In the mediumto-long term, they agreed to meet the
African Union target to allocate at least
10 percent of their national budgets to
agriculture and rural development.
Other targets in the declaration include
a regional food reserve facility, improved
infrastructure to promote trade and
open up the market, as well as construct
dams for irrigation purposes.
275
Conventional World
276
There will be continued failures in the

responses to address the challenges on
land and agriculture, making sustainable
agricultural intensification and realizing
the potential of land resources to contribute to poverty eradication untenable
throughout the decades. Interventions
will continue to be isolated and less harmonized across the Basin. Even regional
and global efforts and land-use related
policies will likely fail to stem problems
with unsustainable land and water management, market access and integration
as well as value addition. Research, technology generation, dissemination and
adoption continue to be affected with
integral disconnects. The CAADP goal
will likely remain unfulfilled under these
circumstances.
Agriculture and trade in agricultural commodities will likely continue
to play a critical role in the formal and
informal economies of Basin countries, especially in sustaining rural
livelihoods and in food security. The
amount of land under agriculture increases. An increase is also expected in
the amount of land under irrigation.
Despite these developments, the Basin
is likely to continue to be vulnerable to
climate change due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture occasioning inability to meet food demands.
Over 70 percent of the Basins population continues to depend on agriculture for food, income and
employment. Agricultural value addition and trade in agricultural products
most likely remain low. Contribution

of agriculture to the economies of the
eight riparian states stagnates, ranging
between 530 percent of the national
GDP. Export earnings from agriculture will also be low and may even decline after 2025 due to the changing
climate and reduced competitiveness
for global exports.
Population growth is expected to
adversely affect agriculture as a consequence of shrinking in per capita land
availability, which declines from 4.16
hectares/person to 2.56 hectares/person in 2025 SADC (SADC/SARDC
and others 2012). By 2040 the figure
drops below two hectares per person.
With this decline the basin is expected
to witness further encroachment into
protected and marginal lands as well as
environmentally sensitive areas such as
wetlands. The degree of environmental
degradation will most likely worsen after
2025, reaching irreversible levels by
2040. The rate of deforestation is expected to surpass 500,000 hectares per
annum in Tanzania and Malawi and
more people in all sub-basins in the
eight countries live on degraded lands.
Arable agricultural land continues to
decline as a result of urbanization that expands at unsustainable proportions of
over 60 percent of total population. Unsustainable land-use practices such as
shifting cultivation, overstocking and
veldt fires continue over the years while
lack of security of land tenure limit sustainable and productive use of land resources due to challenges with access to
finance for agriculture. Customary or

communal tenure will remain predominant in the basin with majority owning
small holdings not adequate to sustain
food security and export demands. Land
cover changes will still vary between
countries, but with a general trend of reduction as forests are replaced by settlements and farmlands. The decline in food
production will deepen after 2017 due to
the highly variable, erratic rainfall; frequent severe droughts; rising population
pressure accompanied by declining farm
sizes; falling soil productivity and land
degradation. Land equipped for irrigation
will not likely increase to levels high
enough to fill the gap in production while
technologies such as the use of improved
seeds and fertilizer remain at levels not
high enough to occasion productivity
changes. The proportion of land under
irrigation is expected to remain below the
2010 level of five percent of all agricultural land for the entire Zambezi Basin
(Spalding-Fecher and others 2014).
Sustainable land management has been

achieved and human-related outcomes
such as food security, livelihoods and
agricultural intensification have been realized. Countries have adhered to
CAADP processes with all allocating
over 10 percent of their GDP to agricultural development. Despite steady
population growth, food production
and land availability per capita remain
optimal due to careful planning and the
Dar es Salaam Declaration were
achieved sequentially from 2020 with
improved food production, food security due to expanded irrigation and improved markets and infrastructure.
Food security in the basin has not
been adversely affected by climate
change. Cereal production increased by
up to 30 percent over most of the Zambezi River Basin between 2015 and
2040. The targets for land and agricultural productivity were realized largely
due to regional (SADC Level) interventions including the main blueprint of
Box 10.2
SEEDS OF CHANGE
Integrated Basin-Wide Approach To Irrigation

Expansion
Under the SADC agricultural and land reform programme of the Regional Indicative Strategic Development
Plan (RISDP) irrigation expansion using the Basins ample
land and water resources, the prospect of enhancing profitability of smallholder irrigated agriculture could be
achieved through scaling up of irrigated agriculture based
on lessons amassed over the years. A tripling of rate at
which the riparian countries could expand irrigated areads
is possible in SWS. The total area under irrigation in the
basin had risen to more than 600,000 ha, and over six percent of the rural population in 2020 had access to improved irrigated land and associated income increases.
In addition, some 12 percent of the rural population
were already benefiting through employment (on- and offfarm), lower food prices, increased food availability, and
the general rise in rural economic vibrancy catalyzed by
irrigation expansion. These efforts were realized through
the SADC comprehensive water for agriculture strategy.
A basin-wide approach was adopted intentionally by all riparian countries by 2015 to propel efforts to upscale commercial farming, land tenure reforms, agricultural value
addition, agricultural intensification and sustainable land
use. Farmers continued to be organized in groups in Basin
management (catchment and basin councils, for example)
further enhancing the role of irrigation in Basin water use
planning, and decision making. Lessons from successful
attempts on expanding irrigation and reforming land
tenure prior to 2015 in Tanzania were modeled for scaling
out in entire Zambezi Basin.
the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) that entrenched

regional integration in development
programmes including those targeting
land use for poverty eradication. The revisions done to the plan in 2014/15 introduced welcome strategies for land
reforms, land use, irrigation expansion
and overall agricultural development
Countries also endeavoured to ratify
and implement sustainable land use approaches, through appropriate policy instruments, relevant protocols and
declarations, such as SADC Protocols
on shared watercourses, wildlife management and law enforcement, gender,
energy, mining, forestry and fisheries.
Sustainable use of natural resources is
277
at the core of these protocols. Other responses included improvements of the

SADC Regional Land Reform Support
Facility and adjustments in the Regional
Agricultural Policy (RAP) by 2016 to ensure that they adequately created a
framework for harmonizing and integrating policy objectives, strategies and
programmes of the member states and
promoted improved market access.
The regional organization in charge
of agricultural research -- the Centre for
Coordination of Agricultural Research
and Development for Southern Africa
(CCARDESA) -- had by 2018 become
a reference point for integrated agricultural research with several technologies
and innovations generated, disseminated
and scaled up. Other centres of excellence created to spur transformation in
land and agriculture included the SADC
Seed Centre that was revamped in 2020
to facilitate the co-ordination and implementation of the regional harmonised
seed regulatory system. Others that improved their performance are the SADC
Plant Genetic Resource Centre. At the
national levels, basin countries reoriented their national land policies and
laws to accommodate increasing desire
for commercialization. It had become
mandatory that basin management projects consolidate efforts to strengthen
278
Table 10.2
and transform agriculture through implementation of regional initiatives that

promote sustainable production intensification of both livestock and crops.
Water Resources
The sustainable water resource management goals and targets of relevance to
the Zambezi River Basin relate to water
availability, water quality, water infrastructure and governance. Globally the
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
(JPOI) articulates the goal of sustaining
water resources, protecting water quality
and other aquatic ecosystems and prevention of water pollution. All Basin
countries have endorsed the goal of improving access to safe drinking water
and improved sanitation with the goal
of halving, by 2015, the proportion of
the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic
sanitation and ensuring full access by
2050. The African Water Vision (AWV)
under the AFDBs Africa Water Facility
(AWF) also requires strengthening water
governance and investments even at
Basin and sub-basin levels.
The SADC Regional Infrastructure
Development Master Plan (Water Sector
Plan) of 2012 sets the following Water
Sector Vision 2027 targets. See Tables
10.2 and 10.3.
Water Sector Vision 2027 Targets
SECTOR
CURRENT STATUS
VISION 2027 TARGETS
14% of ARWR stored (includes Kariba

and Cahora Bassa dams)
25% of ARWR stored to meet SADC regional demand.

Eventual target is 75% stored, as world benchmark
is 7090% of ARWR stored
Agriculture
3.4 million hectares (7% of potential)

irrigated
10 million (20% potential) hectares irrigated. World

average is 20%
Hydropower
12 GW (8% of potential) installed
75 GW (50% of potential) installed to meet SAPP targets and exports to other RECs
Water supply
61% of 260 million people served
75% of 350 million people served. Eventual target

is100% served
Sanitation
39% of 260 million people served
75% of 350 million people served. Eventual target is

100% served
Abstraction
44 cu km/year abstracted
264 cu km/year abstracted to meet expected increase in water demand
www.sadc.int Regional_Infrastructure_Development_Master_Plan_Water_Sector_Plan.pdf
Table 10.3
Gap Between Current Situation and Vision 2027 Targets
SECTOR
CURRENT STATUS
VISION 2027 TARGETS
GAP
14% of ARWR stored (includes Kariba and Cahora

Bassa dams)
25% of ARWR stored to meet SADC regional demand. Eventual target is 75%
stored, as world benchmark is 7090% of
ARWR stored
An additional 11% of ARWR

to be stored
Agriculture
3.4 million hectares

(7% of potential) irrigated
10 million (20% potential) hectares irrigated. World average is 20%
An additional 6.6 million

hectares to be irrigated
Hydropower
12 GW (8% of potential)
installed
75 GW (50% of potential) installed to meet

SAPP targets and exports to other RECs
An additional 63 GW to be
installed
Water supply
61% of 260 million people

served
75% of 350 million people served. Eventual target is 100% served
An additional 14% of 350

million people to be served
Sanitation
39% of 260 million people

served
75% of 350 million people served. Eventual target is 100% served
An additional 36% of 350

million people to be served
Abstraction
44 cu km/year abstracted
264 cu km/year abstracted to meet expected increase in water demand
An increase to 220 cu
km/year abstracted
www.sadc.int Regional_Infrastructure_Development_Master_Plan_Water_Sector_Plan.pdf
The Zambezi Basin countries have

grand plans to use the Zambezi River all
the way to Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa
for transportation.
As far as 150 years ago, the ShireZambezi was used by explorers and missionaries as an inland transportation
waterway from the Mozambican coast
on the Indian Ocean to the Malawian
District of Nsanje, over a distance of
380 km. Recent use of the waterway for
transportation dates back to the early
1970s, where privately operated barges
transported sugar cane molasses from
Chiromo in Malawi to the port of
Chinde in Mozambique. Due to unrest
in the region at that time, goods transportation on the waterway was disrupted and Malawi turned to alternative
transport modes on corridors such as
Durban and Dar es Salaam to continue
its external trade.
Sustainable management of fisheries is critical as fisheries play a central
role in employment creation, food security and poverty reduction in the
Zambezi Basin and SADC region. On
a regional level, a protocol on fisheries
has been implemented to watch over
fisheries management through harmonized policies, legislation and management of fisheries and the aquatic
environment (FANRPAN, 2010). The
achievements and trends of these targets are captured in the storylines for
each scenario below.
Conventional World
The water sector targets of achieving

water availability through improved infrastructure and governance is not likely
to be achieved. Water pollution will
likely be prevalent across the basin despite countries endorsing the goal of
improving access to safe drinking water
as early as 2015. Water stress is likely to
affect more countries. By 2040, under
CWS, water stress persists with issues
concerning availability and access, competition for different water withdrawals,
imbalances in inter-basin water transfers
with plans to draw water from the main
Zambezi River to distant cities of Bulawayo and Gaborone faltering, water
quality and destruction of water ways
through aquatic invasive alien species,
pollution and degradation of wetlands.
Well-intentioned policies and institutional arrangements such as the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses, Regional Strategic Action
Plan Phase III, the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
Agreement and regional cooperation in
water resources management do not
bear much fruit in improving basin
279
280
water resources management. Ravages

of climate change are expected to
worsen the situation especially after
2025 due to breakdown in resilience
measures as costs escalate. Urbanization
and population growth are expected to
continue to putting strain on the water
resources. Damming for hydropower
generation, industry, mining and commerce, tourism, fisheries, ecosystems, as
well as waterway navigation remain ineffective in water management.
Competition between sectors, users
of water and sub-basins are expected to
intensify exposing the region to failures
of weak transboundary management
systems. The population growth rate in
the Zambezi Basin which was 2.36 percent per year in 2010 (estimated from
SADC/SARDC and others 2012) is expected to continue rising, thus exacerbating the water demand with focus on
abstraction from transboundary and
inter-basin sources.
Even with improvement in water infrastructure, access to adequate safe water
and sanitation facilities will remain elusive
for the majority of riparian states of the
Zambezi River Basin. Challenges with
water scarcity, water quality deterioration
and fragmentation of water resources
management policies and practices at national, river basin or regional levels are expected to worsen after 2025. The scenario
witnesses, among others, the following
water resource features:
Inadequate financing of water resources development and management;
Inadequate water infrastructure for

achieving regional energy security;
Insufficient water infrastructure for
agricultural development to achieve
regional food security;
Low access to water supply and sanitation; and
Major dams in the basin were constructed for a single purpose and
their operation is not optimized for
multiple uses.
These challenges are blamed for
the absence of a fully operational river
basin organization for the Zambezi
Basin until 2014 when the permanent
secretariat was operationalized. Until
then it was difficult to access and use
the integrated water resources knowledge-base collected during the ZACPRO 6.2 project -- the Zambezi
Water Information System (ZAMWIS)
for basin-wide development and management. Weak capacity for national
water management institutions persist,
thus lowering their ability to perform
river basin management tasks. Water
infrastructure for agricultural development, domestic water supply and industrial abstraction remain poor. The
major dams in the basin that were initially constructed for the single purpose of hydroelectric power
generation have not been remodelled
for multiple uses.
Figure 10.7 Proportion of Basin
Level Water Resources Abstracted for
Domestic, Agricultural and Industrial
Use in the Countries, under the Two
Scenarios of CWS and SWS.
Figure 10.7
Proportion of Basin Level Water Resources Abstracted for

Domestic, Agricultural and Industrial Use in the Countries, under
the Two Scenarios of CWS and SWS
World Bank. Zambezi River Basin Multi-sector Investment Opportunities Analysis, 2010
281
Delays in opening the Shire-Zambezi Waterway for navigation to the Indian Ocean increases the costs of
transportation of goods. These costs
are continuously exacerbated by ever-increasing costs for fuel. As countries do
not ratify the Protocol on Fisheries, illegal and unregulated fishing continues,
threatening fisheries ecosystems as well
as livelihoods.
Most of the targets have been achieved.

By 2040 water resources management in
Zambezi Basin had optimized water
quality, infrastructure availability and
transboundary management. The efforts
put in place especially after 2020 recognized that consumptive and non-consumptive uses of water in the ZRB have
transboundary implications in the sense
that one countrys use of the river affects
other countries in the Basin. These effects were modest between 2015 and
2020 but had since increased to the extent that river flow patterns changed due
to climate change and increases in water
demand. As more countries industrialized, the need for efficient water use and
management became apparent, occasioning the institution of appropriate

mechanisms for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) across the
Basin. There had been consistent demand for new water infrastructure to
meet regional energy requirements.
Water demand for irrigation had been
met to ensure food security. Strategies had
been put in place to improve the operation of existing and new major dams in
the Basin to take into account and optimize multiple functions of water. There
had also been an increase in investments
and funding for water resources development and management with a resultant
increase in access to sustainable water
supply and sanitation in most sub-basins.
Stakeholders, especially through participatory approaches had embraced adaptive
water resources management leading to
more ecological and economic benefits of
wetlands and other protected areas to sustain their viability even under climate
change extremes.
Water pollution control had become
part and parcel of management resource management at community, subbasin and basin scales. Pollution from
282
especially urban sources had been put

on check by 2035 through public education and investment in pollution management infrastructure to serve urban
centres, rural areas, mining areas and industrial zones.
Degradation of water bodies through
control of invasive aquatic weeds and prevent new outbreaks, and the promotion
of sustainable inland fishery management
as a contribution to regional food security
had been realized in Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania. The integrated water management strategies
adopted also ensured that other sectors
such as tourism were not harmed.
Strategic environmental plans and
procedures including basin-wide issues
had become mandatory for water-user
associations, local and national governments. Institutional frameworks in support of the basin-wide development of
water resources and inter-basin transfer
had been operationalized regionally
through ZAMCOM and locally through
appropriate tools, regulations and policy
support. Part of this involved strengthening of organizational, financial and
human resource capacities of water
management institutions at regional, national and local levels.
As from 2015 basin-wide water resources data were being collected and
processed through an integrated information system. This had encouraged
broad-based stakeholder participation in
water resources development and management and design of a seamless dataand information-sharing protocol for a
vibrant ZAMWIS platform.
The re-opening of the Shire-Zambezi Waterway for navigation to the In-
dian Ocean boosts socio-economic development of the region, including

Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia
through the reduced cost of transportation. There is also massive infrastructure
development, including enlarged Nsanje
harbour in Malawi. The increased economic performance of the Zambezi
Basin leads to socio-economic development. Regional integration is enhanced
as a result of close collaboration between SADC member states in the
Zambezi Basin.
Basin countries ratify the Protocol
on Fisheries, and establish national programmes aimed at promoting sustainable utilization of fisheries resources. As
a result, there is improved regional cooperation with the view of eradicating
illegal and unregulated fishing. Fisheries
governance and legal frameworks to
eliminate illegal fishing are strengthened.
Tourism
Tourism as a sector is poised to make significant contributions to sustainable development and promote transboundary
cooperation and economic integration.
The main targets being pursued include a
10 percent increase in ecotourism growth
in the Zambezi Basin and 15 percent increase in cultural tourism by 2030. The
contribution of tourism to national
GDPs of the riparian states is also targeted to increase by 10 percent (RETOSA 2012) in 2030. Population growth,
technology, consumption patterns remain
important drivers of the sector.
The move towards achieving these
targets will be dictated largely by the
critical uncertainties of culture, governance and globalization. The major developments to track along the scenarios
include new infrastructural development, new tourism regulatory frameworks and risk of environmental
degradation from tourism activities.
Conventional World
Even in the conventional world scenario,

tourism is expected to continue contributing immensely to Zambezi Basin country
economies and social development. This

is because of the wide variety of landforms, vegetation zones, wildlife, as well
as cultural landscapes that will continue to
offer spectacular tourism attractions. The
attractions are expected to continue in the
current major destinations that include
national parks, nature reserves, as well as
cultural festivals. The cultural events and
other attractions are likely to be preserved
and maintained even with limited investments in the sector. However, the basin
may not realize the full potential and reach
the targets for tourism arrivals, employment creation, cultural tourism growth
and expansion of ecotourism in especially
the traditional destinations. Developments of supportive infrastructure such
as hotels, roads and airports are expected
to continue but at sub-optimal pace to facilitate robust growth in the sector.
Tourism development in this scenario remains constrained by weaknesses in other
enabling facilities and technologies that
promote movement of people, goods
and services.
The positive growth in tourism witnessed around 2013 continues towards
2030, but at a lower rate. Benefits from
tourism remained at the pre-2015 levels
as captured in the contribution of travel
and tourism to the GDP, the total number of people employed in the tourism
sector, and the amount of capital investment resulting from tourism and
tourism receipts for expenditures are
made by tourists visiting the Zambezi
Basin. Under CWS, foreign exchange
generated from tourism is expected to
rise marginally but steadily from
US$19.6 billion in 2012 to over US$40
billion by 2030 to stabilize further towards 2030 due to reliance on natural
resources that may be overstretched
after 2025.
Marginal growth is expected to be
noted in sustainable tourism development. The adoption and implementation
of essential ecotourism principles, for instance, remain sub-optimal and continue
to at local, national, sub-basin and basin
levels except for heightened community
Figure 10.8
Projected Tourist Arrival Trends for ZRB

Countries from 2012 - 2040
Simulated based on data from UNWTO Travel Barometer 2013; RETOSA 2012;
WTTC 2013
involvement and capacity building for

communities to access tourism jobs that
are expected to be created in the sector
especially after 2015. Benefits of ecotourism that accrue despite the slow pace
of uptake include social and economic
gains from tourism projects and activities,
sustainable land, forest, biodiversity and
waste management.
By 2030 most of the targets of the

tourism sector have been realized. The
sector has become robust and making
unparalleled contribution to the GDP
of Basin states and acting as a major catalyst of regional integration. Ecotourism growth has increased steadily at
over 10 percent annually since 2020
while tourisms contribution to national
GDPs has been increasing at over 10
percent between 2030 and 2040. With
this improvement, the basin is witnessing improved levels of infrastructural
development including world class hotels, road, air transport, rail and waterways networks for travel.
These achievements have not jeopardized the ecological integrity and social gains to local communities. Over the
years, the following developments took
place:
Development of catchment management plans incorporating areas
of tourism value such as game management areas and wetlands;
283
284
Operation of water infrastructure to

support and enhance tourism management; and
Systematic integration of tourism
development in water resources
planning, development and management with wetlands, waterways,
rivers and lakes forming important
destinations and being used for
tourism transportation and sports.
The role of regional and international organizations became instrumental in the positive changes witnessed in
the sector. The vibrant Regional
Tourism Organization of Southern
Africa (RETOSA) continued to provide
advice and influence on promotion and
development of the regional and basinwide tourism as an advocate for intraregional marketing of the various
tourism products and destinations. All
the eight basin countries have fully subscribed to the RETOSA charter.
A number of national and regional
tourism policies had been improved and
contributed to the positive growth in the
sector. By 2016 the five member states
of the KAZA Transfrontier Conservation Area had completed integration of
policies targeting cross-border conservation to promote unique tourism and
the products in that area are fully mainstreamed in their Integrated Development Plan for the enlarged Park and its
surroundings.
At the national level, countries had
addressed their specific challenges
through:
Sustained economic growth supported by improved travel and
tourism;
Opening up airspaces with new aircrafts acquired by the national airlines and direct flights to major
tourism source continents/countries;
Pursuit of integrated travel and
tourism infrastructure upgrading;
Adoption of the Open Skies policy
and ratification of appropriate bilateral air services agreements between
countries;
Promotion and targeting of growing

markets in Europe, Americas and
Asia as well as expansion of regional
and local market; and,
Successful push by RETOSA for the
adoption of the universal visa (Univisa) had facilitated ease of access to
other destinations within the Zambezi Basin after its approval by
SADC member states in 2025.
Biodiversity and Forests
The Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD) has articulated five strategic goals
that Zambezi Basin countries are pursuing under the Aichi targets:
Strategic Goal A Address the underlying
causes of biodiversity loss by mainstreaming biodiversity across government and
society.
Strategic Goal B Reduce the direct
pressures on biodiversity and promote
sustainable use.
Strategic Goal C Improve the status of
biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems,
species and genetic diversity.
Strategic Goal D Enhance the benefits
to all from biodiversity and ecosystem
services.
Strategic Goal E Enhance implementation through participatory planning,
knowledge management and capacity
building.
The specific targets under these
strategic goals form the basis of biodiversity conservation in the basin as in
other regions and countries. The Basin
countries have also ratified the goal of
increasing forest cover up to at least 10
percent of the total land area and proportion of the area under protection.
Conventional World
Under the CWS, biodiversity and forest

resources of the basin continue to be influenced by the pace of population
growth and poverty, agricultural expansion, overreliance on wood energy;
socio-economic development; and other
emerging issues such as climate change,

biofuel production and invasive alien
species. The scenario is likely to witness
depletion of forests cover and loss of
the socio-economic benefits to the basin
population and ecosystem.
Attempts by some Zambezi Basin
states to conserve biodiversity and forests
will not fully succeed over the years. The
efforts include the establishment of jatropha and sweet sorghum feedstock
through grower schemes and large plantations in Botswana, Malawi and Mozambique. Some of the plantations of
jatropha may replace cash and food crops.
In Zimbabwe huge plantations of sugarcane for sugar and bio-ethanol production will likely be expanded around 2017.
The below-average performance in
conservation of biodiversity will likely
result from the inadequate protection,
sustainable development and use of
wetlands that persisted throughout the
years, coupled with the deterioration in
water quality caused mainly by increasing pollution from industries and urban
centres. After 2020 there is likely to be
a proliferation of invasive aquatic weeds
that cause havoc in forests, rangelands
and wetlands and water bodies in the
basin. These developments will probably cause unsustainable and low-productivity fisheries management as well as
threats to tourism development due to
degradation of the aquatic environment.
In the end, the originally high-value and
unique eco-systems and related ecological and economic functions in the basin
will remain under threat from uncoordinated and fragmented development.
By 2040 the Zambezi Basin countries had

achieved the Aichi target by addressing
many of underlying causes of biodiversity
loss that prevailed before 2020. This was
achieved by sustained public awareness of
the values of biodiversity. Mainstreaming
of biodiversity conservation in development planning has improved. The rate of
loss of natural habitats, including forests
had declined by more than half the 2015
levels. By 2020, the threats to fish, mammals, invertebrate stocks and aquatic
plants had been reduced drastically
through legal frameworks that were applied across the basin while agro-biodiversity conservation formed an integral part
of sustainable agricultural intensification.
There had been an overall enhancement
of equity in the benefits from biodiversity
and ecosystem services and an improvement in the participatory involvement of
communities and other stakeholders in
the planning, knowledge management
and capacity-building in biodiversity programmes.
Towards 2020, many measures were
implemented to address the challenges
of biodiversity and forests loss in the
entire basin. A well-coordinated programme for community participation in
natural resources management was implemented through education and community level incentives such as
rewarding local communities for their
indigenous knowledge on natural resources. The Zambezi Basin member
states also fully subscribed to the establishment of protected areas and Trans
Frontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs).
Effective regional and national policy
interventions boosted the slowing down
of drivers causing biodiversity and forest
loss. In addition, a comprehensive and
spatially explicit biodiversity information
system was developed to support decision-making and monitoring of Basin
level changes in ecosystem services. This
had helped in actions undertaken after
2020 such as the delineation of high priority conservation areas such as headwaters, recharge zones and flood planning
285
and implementation land use plans for

these areas. There had also been realized
effective international cooperation on
linking areas with high significance for
biodiversity and their inclusion in the
basins Protected Area Networks.
Harmonization had been realized as
early as 2016 on the development and
use of common guidelines for EIAs and
SEAs in development planning. The
countries had included in their biodiversity conservation strategies the promotion of effective monitoring, assessment
and reporting of biodiversity benefits,
and application of appropriate biotechnology and local knowledge. The strong
political will from the Zambezi Basin
states gave impetus to institutions such
as ZAMCOM and local communities to
participate in conservation efforts.
286
Industrialization and Energy

All Zambezi River Basin states, as influenced by the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (RIDMP)
incorporated goals and target for industrialization and energy security as articulated in the SADC Infrastructure Vision
2027 focusing on the development of
seamless, cost-effective transboundary infrastructure. The SADC Infrastructure
Vision 2027 is anchored on six pillars
consisting of energy, transport, ICTs, meteorology, transboundary water resources
and tourism (Trans Frontier Conservation
Areas).
The master plan will be implemented over three five-year intervals
short term (2012-2017), medium term
(2017-2022) and long term (2022-2027).
SADC has a regional target to gradually
increase the uptake of cleaner energy that
will result in reduced carbon emission by
2020. In the meeting held in Botswana in
2012, energy experts from the region
agreed that the Southern African Power
Pool (SAPP) should achieve a renewable
energy mix in the regional grid of at least
32 percent by 2020 and 35 percent by
2030 (SARDC 2014).
Regarding industry, one of the specific actions set by SADC in the SADC
Industrial Development Framework

Policy approved in 2012 is to establish
training programmes for light manufacturing (including food industries, leather,
metal, garments/textile) that can be offered across the region by 2016. In the
same framework, SADC also intends to
facilitate development of specialized
training in the priority sectors with particular emphasis on mineral processing
and pharmaceutical production in institutions of higher learning by 2017.
Conventional World
The industrial development trajectory that

is already in motion will likely gain the
momentum in place in 2015 and continue
through the years with minerals such as
gold, copper, coal and diamonds forming
the bedrock of industrial production. The
agriculture sector will most likely continue
to play an important role, although value
addition in both manufacturing and agriculture remains low. The two sectors will
still be leading in contribution to national
GDP. The slow pace of growth in infrastructure may keep industrialization at levels below other regions while the service
industry expected is not fully mature.
The increasing demand for goods
and services in the Zambezi Basin due
to rising population, endowment of the
Basin with abundant natural resources
which form the basis for resource-based
industries, particularly mining and food
processing industries will likely drive the
otherwise less than impressive performance in manufacturing and agricultural
processing.
Industrial settlements had expanded
in the traditional industrial cities of
Blantyre and Lilongwe in Malawi; Tete
in Mozambique; Chililabombwe, Chingola, Chipata, Kabwe, Kafue, Kitwe,
Livingstone, Lusaka, Luanshya, Mazabuka, Mufulira, Ndola and Solwezi in
Zambia; and Chegutu, Gweru, Harare,
Hwange, Kadoma, Kwekwe, Marondela
and Norton in Zimbabwe, and they are
expected to continue expanding.
The slow pace of infrastructural development (especially roads, railways
and power plants) may limit industrial

expansion in the Basin despite implementation of the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan
(SADC RIDMP). The movement of
raw materials and industrial products
will also remain limited. Some progress
may be made in the national policy
front. Specific policies that promote industrial development are likely to be formulated but their implementation may
not be effective. Artisanal exploration
and mining is likely to continue in most
parts of the basin.
Although mining and other industries
will continue to provide employment and
other social benefits to the basin countries, their impact on the environment is
likely to result in the degradation of the
quality of air, water and land. Land degradation as a result of mining operations in
particular will be serious in many parts, especially in Kabwe, Zambia. Siltation of
dams and rivers by loosened sand and
gravel from mining and washing at mine
sites will also continue in many countries
while the danger of mercury pollution
may persist.
In 2040, sustainable industrialization has

been achieved with green industrial prosperity realized in manufacturing, agricultural processing, service sector and even
mining. The latter in particular had expanded and both primary production and
value addition has increased the position
of the eight member states in regional and
global trade in finished products. Socioeconomic benefits of industrial growth
are visible in equitable contribution to
employment and environmental conservation. The SADC-RIDMP had been
fully implemented and quality transport
networks, water, irrigation and energy systems are in place. Transboundary cooperation led to a basin-wide infrastructural
development and industrial prosperity.
The challenges that faced southern
African energy sector in general and
Zambezi River Basin in particular between 2015 and 2020 were addressed
through various actions and energy consumption per capita has generally kept
pace with population increases. Electrification levels in riparian countries had
steadily increased and the absolute numbers without access were drastically reduced towards 2040. Fewer and fewer
cases of power shortages were experienced especially after 2030 as the investment in power supply significantly
narrowed the gap between supply and demand over many years. The Zambezi
Basin countries benefitted from the increase in electricity supply driven by the
Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP),
which included the expansion plan to add
more than 6,000 MW of new hydropower after 2015. Reliance by countries on hydropower continued. Strategies
for water balance and transboundary
management made this possible even
with the escalating but periodic water
stress during drought. Water demand
continued to grow, largely due to major
irrigation investments within the basin.
Most of the strategies targeted climate
change adaptation. The energy sector in
particular benefitted from joint development of feasible package of major hydropower sites, taking into account
multiple functions in coordination with
SAPP and promotion of options for
small-scale hydropower development.
Table 10.4
287
Hydropower Expansion in Each

Future Scenario
Year of commissioning
Business as
usual (CWS)
Cahora Bassa North

MphandaNkuwa
Kariba South Extension
Kariba North Extension
Kafue Gorge Lower
Itezhi-tezhi
Boroma
Lupata
Devils Gorge
Batoka Gorge
2022
2022
2018
2014
2022
2014
2025
2025
2028
2022
Optimistic
(SWS)
2017
2017
2015
2013
2017
2014
2020
2020
2018
2018
Spalding-Fecher and others. Water Supply and Demand Scenarios

for the Zambezi River Basin. Climate Change and Upstream Development Impacts on New Hydropower Projects in the Zambezi
Project. Report for Climate and Development Knowledge
Network, 2014
Table 10.5
Theme/Issue/
Sector
Sub-Theme/Sub-Issue/
Priority/Cahallenge
Conventional World
Scenario
Sustainable World Scenario
Some Strategies for Addressing Gaps
Land and
Agriculture
Land use change
Land under agriculture

increases in proportion
Sustainable agricultural
intensification and land-use planning
Land reforms and supportive land-tenure

regimes
Agricultural productivity
(cereals)
Increased but sub-optimal

cereal production. Agriculture
contributes up to 30% of
national GDP
Agricultural growth rate of 6% per

year achieved through national
investment of over 10% GPD for
agricultural development
Sustainable intensification, application

of science and technology and support
of generation and upscaling of
technology for improved productivity -such as the use of improved and highyielding varieties and breeds, adoption of
mechanization, irrigation and agricultural
value addition and improved markets
Food security
Food insecurity and high levels

of malnutrition
Food security and food surplus for

export. Countries have managed to
cope with climate change
Value addition and agricultural

diversification for improved livelihoods
and food security
Land under irrigation
Per capita land availability

decline and irrigated land
proportion not changed
SADC RISDP promotes irrigation

development
Over 600 000 ha brought under
irrigation
Integrated basin-wide approach to

irrigation
Water availability
Water stress persists
Equitable access to water

resources
Improved infrastructure for water supply
Water quality
Water pollution and siltation

from agriculture, cities and
industries (particularly mining)
Optimal water quality

Control of water body degradation
Awareness of water and sanitation,

pollution control and adaptive water
resources management
Water withdrawal by
sector
Imbalances in water use and

water transfers could cause
conflicts
Equitable and sustainable balance

between consumptive and nonconsumptive uses of water in the
basin
Water management information system

to support decision-making and practice
Tourist arrivals
Arrivals to increase due to

traditional attractions and
destination
Increase in arrivals and tourism

receipts
Adoption of group marketing in overseas,

regional and local sources
Employment from tourism

sector
Contribution to GDP increases

but below potential Employment
in the sector unstable
Tourism contribution to GDP

increased by over 10%
Mainstreaming tourism and equitable

employment regulation in development
plans
Growth of cultural tourism
Cultural festivals and indigenous

peoples participation not visible
and beneficial
Recognition of cultural tourism and

rights of indigenous peoples
Culture conservation and protection of

rights of indigenous peoples
Growth of ecotourism
Marginal growth in sustainable

tourism
Over 15% growth in ecotourism with

benefits to society and ecosystems
services/conservation
Systematic integration of tourism

development in basin resources
planning
Biodiversity conservation
Loss of biodiversity and

disruption of habitats (wetlands,
parks, water bodies)
Achievement of all Aichi targets
Awareness campaigns on
institution/ratification of necessary
protocols
Protected areas
No change on number and

quality of protected areas
Protected Area networks.

armonization
Increased implementation effectiveness

of protected areas
Forest cover
Depletion of forest reserves
Effectiveness of regional and

national forest policies
Implementation of TFCs
Regional policy support for forest
conservation
Extreme events
Extreme rainfall variability,

floods and drought
Effects of extreme events adequately

controlled
Improve flood and drought management

and mitigation mechanisms
Cost of adaptation
High costs of adaptation

especially for countries that
have no action at the beginning
Increased resilience of communities

and ecosystems
Regional and local capacity to adapt
GHG emissions
Escalation of GHG emissions

even from sub-basins and also
nationally
Globally, achievements Post 2015

Agreement and GHG targets
Regional capacity to adapt and mitigate

and make use of the development
opportunities, for example CDM
Mining sector development
Remains primary and

environmentally polluting
Green industrial prosperity
Improved beneficiation and value

addition in manufacturing and
agricultural processing
Infrastructural
development
Weaknesses in RIDMP
implementation
Energy, water, transport, ICT and

other infrastructure in support of
industrialization
Fast-tracking of SADC infrastructure

vision 2027
Energy security and

development
Hydropower generation,
renewable energy introduction
faced with challenges.
Energy security jeopardized
Sustainable energy production and

use. More alternative energy sources
in place
SADC RIDMP energy plans to be fully

implemented
Joint development of feasible package of
major hydropower sites, taking into
account multiple functions in
coordination with SAPP
Water Resources
288
Manifestations of Conventional World and Sustainability World Scenarios

Strategies for Moving Towards Sustainability World
Tourism
Biodiversity and
forests
Climate change
and variability
Industrialization
and energy
The development of hydropower in

the Zambezi River Basin had taken into
account the influence of other water uses
and withdrawals from other sectors. Of
importance had been the demand for irrigation that influenced power generation
potential of plants. The influence of irrigation demand is clear on the absolute
growth in water demand from the energy
sector. Sufficient water had been available
after other priorities have been met. The
same demand levels were reached before
2025 (10) years earlier than budgeted in
the SADC RIDMP.
Towards Effective Policies and Basin

Management
This chapter has presented alternative
narratives of the Zambezi River Basin futures under business-as-usual (CWS) and
optimistic (SWS) scenarios. Effective policies that would integrate the lessons from
this future would need to strategically support a transboundary approach to basin
and sub-basin planning, implementation
of land, water, biodiversity conservation,
industrial development and sustainable resource use policies. Table 10.5 summarizes the features of the two scenarios.
In order to achieve this, the following would be instrumental:
Fast-tracking the operationalization
through encouraging ratification of
the ZAMCOM Agreement by the remaining country and promotion of
targeted measures to raise awareness
of benefits of basin-wide management of water resources;
Formulation and implementation of
public information programmes to
raise awareness among a broad range
of stakeholders;
Strengthening and sustaining the annual Basin Forum meetings as part of
awareness and information sharing
among basin stakeholders;
Strengthening of coordination with
ongoing programmes in the Zambezi
Basin by SADC, COMESA, SAPP,
NEPAD, Waternet, IUCN, WWF,
HYCOS, World Bank and others, including management of sub-basins

commissions such as Joint Water
Commission, ZRA; and,
Strengthening stakeholder participation through policy and legislation review and revision throughout the
Basin states.
Conclusion
Addressing future developments in the
Zambezi Basin becomes apparent if alternative narratives are told in mutually
exclusive pathways via the CWS and
SWS. The SWS is the optimistic scenario, presenting benchmarks with
which to gauge progress and results of
transboundary management of Zambezi River Basin resources and their outcomes on regional integration, human
development and environmental protection. The dual pathways presented in the
chapter reveal lessons on sustainable
management and how the interactions
of key drivers and pressures will influence trends in land, water, biodiversity,
tourism and industrial development. By
2040, the vision is to have a regionally
integrated and sustainable Basin ecosystem that supports various human socioeconomic activities but with a sound
infrastructure and stable biodiversity.
Continuing on the current trajectory is
not a good option and major policy interventions are needed to bend the
curve towards the outlined sustainability
goals and targets.
To realize the respective targets and
goals under each of the themes of the
current report will require action at all
levels and policy support to strengthen
the capacity of communities and institutions, infrastructural development as
outlined in the six pillars of RIDMP, as
well as improved governance and adaptive management of the basins land,
water, biodiversity, forest and other resources in ways that bring about equitable benefits to populations and
countries of this shared ecosystem.
289
CHAPTER LINKAGES
ZAMBEZI BASIN OVERVIEW
A state of sustainability revolves around proper environmental management and planning centred
on such tools as Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment. Population growth is the ultimate driver of socio-economic, political and environmental challenges.
WATER RESOURCES
Sustainable development in the Zambezi Basin depends on effective management of water resources and conservation of wetlands. Both resources are critical to environment and development
in the Basin.

Per capita access to land and per capita food productivity continue to decline unless countries of
the region make use of their comparative advantages, and vigorously pursue the goal of food security by promoting intra-regional trade.
290
The Zambezi Basin is rich in biological resources, which support the economies and raise the standard of living of Basin inhabitants. Destruction of habitats and overexploitation of biodiversity
will impoverish the basin, short-circuiting efforts towards sustainability. Increasing awareness and
more binding policy measures bring stability in the development of forest, woodland and wildlife
sectors.
CLIMATE AND VARIABILITY

Climate change anomalies such as temperature rise and frequency of droughts and floods continue
to haunt. However, global consensus bears fruit in resilience to the impacts of global warming and
rise in sea level.
ENERGY
Both traditional and scientific approaches to energy-use exert pressure on ecosystems, exacerbating
land clearance and altering natural functions of ecosystems due to the construction of dams for
hydroelectricity generation.

The urban growth phenomenon remains a key developmental challenge. Urban areas continue to
be attractive due to the availability of education, health, sport and social services when compared
to rural areas.
TOURISM
Over-development of the tourism sector will make it less attractive for tourists who, ultimately,
will be forced to visit other sites in the world. Therefore, it is important that tourism, as other sectors, moves towards a state of sustainability.
The growth of industry could be seen as a positive development as it could wean some of the people from the overdependence on natural resources. However, such growth must take into account
the negative aspects of pollution in all its forms and necessary legislative mechanisms must be seen
to be effective in mitigating environmental disasters.
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292
PROFILES
ZAMCOM
Equitable and reasonable use of water resources
ZAMCOM is a river basin organization made of up the eight riparian states that share the Zambezi
River Basin, and works with all stakeholders in the Basin. The objective of ZAMCOM is to promote
the equitable and reasonable utilization of the water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well
as the efficient development and management thereof . Through the Agreement on the Establishment of the Zambezi Watercourse Commission, ZAMCOM has the responsibility to collect, evaluate
and disseminate data and information, and foster greater awareness among the inhabitants of the of
the Basin of the efficient management and sustainable development of the resources, among other activities. ZAMCOM activities are rooted in the strategy of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) according
to the Dublin Principles that (i) freshwater is finite and vulnerable
SADC Vision
and is essential to life and the environment; (ii) water development
A common future, within a regional
and management should be participatory involving users, plancommunity that will ensure economic wellbeing,
improvement of the standards of living and quality of
ners and policy-makers at all levels; (iii) women play a central
life, freedom and social justice, peace and security
role in the provision, management and safeguarding of water;
for the peoples of southern Africa.
and (iv) water has an economic value for its competing uses. The
Zambezi River Basin is the largest and most shared river basin in
southern Africa, and the fourth largest in Africa after the Congo,
Nile and Niger. The riparian states are Angola, Botswana, Malawi,
Southern Africa
Vision for Water
Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Southern African Development Community
An equitable and sustainable

utilisation of water for social and
environmental justice, regional
integration and economic benefit
for present and future
generations.
SADC A common future within a shared regional community

The Southern African Development Community is a regional economic community comprising 15
Member States (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi,
Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe). SADC is committed to regional integration and poverty eradication in southern Africa
through economic development and ensuring peace and security. The SADC Common Agenda refers
to key principles and values that guide the regional integration agenda. These include, among others,
promoting self-sustaining development on the basis of collective self-reliance; achieving complementarity between national and regional strategies; sustainable use of natural resources and effective protection of the environment; using the resources for productive employment; mainstreaming gender
in community building; and strengthening and consolidating the longstanding historical, social and
cultural affinities and links among the peoples of the region.
The SADC Regional Water Policy was developed in 2005 through a highly consultative and
participatory process involving many stakeholders. The policy is implemented through a regional
strategy adopted in 2006, and is premised on the SADC Treaty, the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses, the SADC Vision for Water, and the Dublin Principles on Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM). The regional water policy provides a framework for sustainable, integrated
and coordinated development, utilization, protection and control of national and transboundary water
resources in the SADC region for the promotion of soci-economic development and regional integration, and the improvement of quality of life of all people in the region. It was developed to facilitate
the implementation of the Revised Protocol on Shared Watercourses, and to have a focused, coordinated management of regional water resources. The policy recognizes IWRM as the basic approach
to achieving these objectives as a process that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximize the resultant economic and social
welfare in an equitable manner without compromised the sustainability of vital ecosystems.
293
294
Southern African Research and Documentation Centre
SARDC
Research that informs development
SARDC is an independent regional knowledge resource centre that focuses on policy issues in
southern Africa, and has monitored regional developments since 1985. SARDC is made up of
topical institutes that focus on relevant regional processes such as water resources, energy, or climate change, and work in partnerships at national and regional levels. SARDC has a strong track
record in research, collection, analysis, writing, documenting and disseminating knowledge from
a regional perspective in a way that is accessible for different target audiences, including policy
and decision-makers in public and private sectors, parliaments, academics, development agencies,
media and the public. SARDC was formed at the urging of the Front Line States to add a regional
dimension to the collection and dissemination of information. Founding Patron was the late
Mwalimu Julius K. Nyerere, then Chairman of the Front Line States. SARDC has worked with
SADC for 20 years, with an MOU rooted in a clear understanding that accessible knowledge is a
key strategic resource for the achievement of regional integration and development. Southern Africa
Today (SADC Today) is among the publications produced by SARDC for SADC, in the three official languages of English, French and Portuguese.
www.sardc.net
Knowledge for Development
I Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa

IMERCSA
Knowledge for sustainable development
The SARDC institute responsible for environmental reporting and climate change issues, including
indicators development, is the I Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa
(SARDC IMERCSA), named for the late IUCN Regional Director, India Musokotwane from
Zambia, who inspired IMERCSA and supported its partnerships and its Vision that:
people at all levels of environmental decision-making in southern Africa are
motivated and empowered to take positive actions to counter environmental
degradation and move towards sustainable development paths through provision of
accurate, accessible and meaningful knowledge and information on the environment.
SARDC IMERCSA initiated the first report on the southern African environment in
1994, State of the Environment in Southern Africa, in partnership with SADC and IUCN, and has
continued to produce thematic and other reports on the southern African environment, with support of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). Previously known as State of Environment
reports, these are now called Environment Outlooks, and these are IMERCSAs most sought after
outputs. Two regional Outlooks have been produced, as well as five thematic reports, including
State of the Environment Zambezi Basin 2000, which was the first assessment of a single ecosystem
in southern Africa. SARDC IMERCSA was established in 1992 and is a long-time partner of the
SADC Water Division, ZAMCOM and its predecessors dating back to early ZACPRO projects.
296

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Towards Strengthening Environmental Cooperation and Integration

Dr. Stergomena Lawrence Tax

Prof. Zebediah Phiri

PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS

Admire Ndhlovu, SARDC IMERCSA

Dr Michael J. Tumbare, Zimbabwe

3 Land and Agriculture

SARDC IMERCSA Team

Stephen Nanthambwe, Malawi

4 Biodiversity and Forests

Dr Enos Shumba, Zimbabwe

SARDC Publishing Team

David Lesolle, Botswana

Editor and Publisher

Joseph Ngwawi, SARDC REDI

7 Urbanization and Human Settlements

Gertrude Ngenda, Zambia

Sostein Lingwalanya, Malawi

Admire Ndhlovu and Danai Matowanyika,

10 Zambezi River Basin Scenarios

Dr. Washington Ochola

Carolino Manuel Mendes

Ministry of Energy and Water, Angola

Specialist Contributors all Chapters

Dr. Joseph Z. Matowanyika

Indigenous Knowledge Systems

Prof. Zebediah Phiri

Dr Stergomena Lawrence Tax Executive Secretary

Senior Programme Officer

Rafael Miguel Neto

Ministry of Energy and Water, Angola

Prof. Zebediah Phiri

Review Workshop and Scenarios Development

Stakeholders Consultative Conference

Carolino Manuel Mendes

Ministry of Energy and Water, Angola

SADC Water Division

1 ZAMBEZI BASIN OVERVIEW

3 LAND AND AGRICULTURE

4 BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS

5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

7 URBANIZATION AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

State of Industrialization in the Zambezi Basin Challenges for Industrial Development

10 ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN SCENARIOS

List of Tables, Figures, Boxes and Maps

Area and population in the Zambezi Basin

Table 4.14 Nutritional value of Mopane Caterpillar compared to

Primary commodities in the Zambezi Basin countries

Zambezi River Basin share by country

Access to grid electricity in SADC region

Invasive Australian Crayfish spreading fast in

Urban centres and urbanization

Major River Basins in Africa

Access and Benefit Sharing

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

COMMON AND SCIENTIFIC NAMES

Acacia mellifera, Acacierioloba,acacipolyacanthna

Prince of Wales feathers

A regional Stakeholder Consultative Conference was then held in May 2013 in