IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM)

e-ISSN: 2278-487X, p-ISSN: 2319-7668. Volume 16, Issue 7. Ver. V (July. 2014), PP 20-28
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity

Market.
Mrs.J.Nithya, Dr.G.Thamizhchelvan
Department of Commerce and International Business, Dr.GRD College of Science.

Abstract: This study is aimed at undertaking technical analysis of selected companies included in the CNX
Nifty. The project also demonstrates how technical analysis can be of valuable use for the investors in marking
their investment decisions. To analyze tools of technical analysis can be used in forecasting stock prices. To find
the right stock for investment and to provide the justification for the investment based on the candlestick charts
and indicators. To know the movements (upward or downward) of stock prices of selected company stocks
through Technical analysis.The descriptive method is used to study the price trend of fifteen stocks using MACD
and RSI charting technique of technical analysis. The data used for analysis is secondary data obtained from
the spider software for technical analysis. The sampling method used in this research is simple random
sampling. The three banking companies are taken from the NSC quoted stocks where more than 9000
companies were listed.
Key Words: convergence, divergence, investor optimism, investor pessimism, oscillators

I.

Introduction

Technical Analysis is important to form a view on the likely trend of the overall market, and it is
helpful to have some idea of how to go about selecting individual stocks. Naturally, all investors would like
their investments to appreciate rapidly in price, but stocks, which may satisfy this wish, tend to accompanied by
a substantially greater amount of risk then many investors are normally willing to accept. However, it is
important to understand that investors can be very conscious when it comes to stock ownership.
Technical analysis or charting is considered to be as a supplement to Fundamental Analysis of
securities. Technical analysis can be applied to any market with a comprehensive price history. The premises of
technical analysis were derived from empirical observations of financial markets over hundreds of years.
Perhaps the oldest branch of technical analysis is the use of candlestick techniques by Japanese traders at least
as early as the 18th century, and still very popular today. Stock markets have now turned to be one of the
favourable sectors for investment. The prime reason for the same can be attributed to the overwhelming returns
that the market has provided to the investors during the years. The investment pattern will differ according to the
stocks considered and the risk appetite of the investor.
1.1 Dow Theory- Its Cornerstone
New tools and theories have been produced and existing tools have been enhanced at a rapid rate in
recent decades, with an increasing emphasis on computer-assisted techniques. Technical analysis is not
concerned with why a price is moving but rather whether it is moving in a particular direction or in a particular
chart pattern. Technical analysts believe that profits can be made by "trend following." In other words if a
particular stock price is steadily rising then a technical analyst will look for opportunities to buy this stock. Until
the technical analyst is convinced this uptrend has reversed or ended, all else equal, he will continue to own this
security. Additionally, technical analysts look for various price patterns to form on a price chart and will take
positions in anticipation of the expected move following that pattern. The various tools of technical analysis
assist the technician in determining when trends have formed, ended, etc. and when particular patterns are
unfolding.
1.2 Technical Analysis: The Basic Assumptions
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analysing the statistics generated by market
activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic
value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. The field of
technical analysis is based on three assumptions:
1. The market discounts everything.
2. Price moves in trends.
3. History tends to repeat itself.

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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

II.

Statement Of The Problem

Stock investment requires meticulous planning and careful evaluation of the underlying stock before
making investment. A statistical data in the recent past indicated that 95 per cent of the investors in the stock
markets are losers, since they undertake investment without any information and without discipline.
Which stock to invest?
What type of security to buy?
When to sell the securities?
Where to Invest?
How to Invest?
Whether hold, sell or buy securities?
It is much required for the investors to study the market and to understand market psychology so that they can
make optimal decisions
Objectives of the Study
The following are the main objectives of this study,
To find the right stock for investment and to provide the justification for the investment based on the
candlestick charts and indicators.
To know the movements of stock prices of selected company stocks through Technical analysis.
To know how best we can utilize these analyses to meet the financial goals.
Research Design
This study is descriptive research. The descriptive method is used to study the price trend of fifteen
stocks using MACD and RSI charting technique of technical analysis. The sampling method used in this
research is simple random sampling. The fifteen companies are taken from the NSC quoted stocks where more
than 9000 companies were listed. This study has been done for the calendar year Jan2013 to Feb2014. The
Probability sampling method is used by the researcher. The sampling technique used here is Purposive
sampling. The data used in this study are publicly available data collected from secondary source. The major
source of the data is the website of NSE India.
Statistical Tools Used
Most analysis is done for the short or intermediate-term, but some technicians also predict long-term
cycles based on charts, technical indicators, oscillators and other data. Examples of common technical indicators
include relative strength index, Money Flow Index, Stochastic, MACD and Bollinger bands. Technical
indicators do not analyse any part of the fundamentals of a business, like earnings, revenue and profit margins.
Technical indicators are used extensively by active traders, as they are designed primarily for analysing shortterm price movements. The most effective uses of technical indicators for a long-term investor are to help them
to identify good entry and exit points for a stock investment by analysing the short and long-term trends

III.

Review Of Literature

C. L. Osler (2001) provides a micro structural explanation for the success of two familiar predictions from
technical analysis: (1) trends tend to be reversed at predictable support and resistance levels, and (2) trends gain
momentum once predictable support and resistance levels are crossed. There are marked differences between the
clustering patterns of stop-loss and take-profit orders, and between the patterns of stop-loss buy and stop-loss
sell orders. These differences explain the success of the two predictions. CESARI, R. and D. CREMONINI,
Gupta, (2003) examined the perceptions about the main sources of his worries concerning the stock market. A
sample comprise of middle-class households spread over 21 sates/union territories. The study reveals that the
foremost cause of worry for household investors is fraudulent company management and in the second place is
too much volatility and in the third place is too much price manipulation. Ravindra and Wang (2006) examine
the relationship of trading volume to stock indices in Asian markets. Stock market indices from six developing
markets in Asia are analysed over the 34 month period ending in October 2005. In the South Korean market, the
causality extends from the stock indices to trading volume while the causality is the opposite in the Taiwanese
market. Subrata Kumar Mitra (2002) has identified persuasive reasons to believe the relationship between
stock prices and determinants are complex nonlinear process. The analysis was performed by using moving
average and filters combination of stock prices of ACC, Reliances industries, State bank of India, TISCO and
BSE index. He found the profitability changes widely with changes of periods and the two methods are giving
profitable results that help us to believe that making profits in stock market is not just a matter of chance and
there is need of analytical and systematic approaches to making profits in cumulative basis. Parvez Ahmed,
Kristine Beck, Elizabeth Goldreyer (2005) studies the efficacy of using moving average technical trading
rules with currencies of emerging economies. If technical trading rules are successful, they can become a risk
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

management tool for multinational firms and investors in emerging markets. They use 4 Variable Length
Moving Average (VMA) trading models and compare them to a simple buy and hold strategy. Results support
the effectiveness of trading models, which imply the presence of strong serial correlation among currency
returns for emerging markets. Hence, the predictability of future currency prices will allow investors to create
effective hedges in the often volatile emerging markets. Muhannad A. Atmeh, Ian M. Dobbs (2006)analysis
the performance of moving average trading rules in Jordanian stock market. The conditional returns on buy or
sell signals from actual data are examined for a wide range of trading rules. These are compared with
conditional returns from simulated series generated by a range of models (random walk with a drift, AR (1), and
GARCH-(M)) and the consistency of the general index series with these processes is examined. The empirical
results show that technical trading rules can help to predict market movements, and that there is some evidence
that (short) rules may be profitable after allowing for transactions costs, although there are some cautions on
this.MassoudMetghalchi, Jianjun Du, YixiNing (2009) tests two moving average technical trading rules for 4
Asian markets. Identify that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and can discern recurring
price patterns for profitable trading. It supports the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the
buy-and-hold strategy. Break-even one-way trading costs are estimated to be high for all 4 markets. It was
concluded from the statistical results that moving average rules are valid and indeed have predictive power. It is
implied that the trading rules may be used to design a trading strategy that will beat the buy-and-hold strategy in
the Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan markets.

IV.

EXPLORING OSCILLATORS AND INDICATORS

4.1. MACD: Moving Average Convergence and Divergence

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is one of the most well known and used
indicators in technical analysis. It is used to signal both the trend and momentum behind a security.
In Common, the MACD is a trend following, momentum indicator that shows the relationship
between two moving averages of prices. To Calculate the MACD subtract the 26-day EMA from a 12-day
EMA. A 9-day dotted EMA of the MACD called the signal line is then plotted on top of the MACD.
Here is a visual example using stock price

Figure 1: Moving Average Convergence Divergences (MACD)

Notice that back, in September the stock price dropped well below its 50-day average (the green line)
there has been a steady downward trend since then and no really strong divergence until the end of December
when it rose above its 50-days average and continued to rise for several weeks.
The most commonly used moving average values are 26-day and 12-day EMAs for the MACD
calculation and a nine-day EMA of the MACD for the signal line. These values can be adjusted to meet the
needs of the technician and the security. For more volatile securities shorter term averages are used while less
volatile securities should have longer averages.

4.2.Relative Strength Index RSI

The relative strength index (RSI) is another one of the most frequently used and well known
momentum indicators in technical analysis. It is used to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security.
The indicator is plotted between a range of zero to 100 where 100 is the highest overbought condition and zero
is the highest oversold condition. The RSI helps to measure the strength of a security's recent up moves
compared to the strength of its recent down moves. This helps to indicate whether a security has seen more
buying or selling pressure over the trading period.
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

Calculation

Like most indicators there are two general ways in which the indicator is used to generate signals crossovers and divergence. In the case of the RSI, the indicator uses crossovers of its overbought, oversold and
centreline.
The first technique is to use overbought and sold lines to generate buy-and-sell signals. In the RSI, the
overbought line is typically set at 70 and when the RSI is above this level the security is considered to be
overbought. The security is seen as oversold when the RSI is below 30. These values can be adjusted to either
increase or decrease the amount of signals that are formed by the RSI.
Figure: 3

A buy signal is generated when the RSI breaks the oversold line in an upward direction, which means
that it goes from below the oversold line to moving above it. A sell signal is formed when the RSI breaks the
overbought line in a downward direction crossing from above the line to below the line.
Another crossover technique used in formulating signals is using the centreline (50). This technique is exactly
the same as using the overbought and oversold lines to formulate signals. This technique will often form signals
after a movement in the direction they are predicting but are used more as a confirmation then a signal compared
to the other techniques. The relative strength indicator focuses on the momentum underlying the security and is
a great secondary measure to be used by traders. It is important to note that the RSI is often not used as the sole
generation of buy-and-sell signals but used in conjunction with other indicators and chart patterns.
4.3.About Companies:
Can Bk
Canara Bank provides various banking products and services primarily in India. It offers personal
banking products and services, including savings, current, and salary accounts, as well as re-investment plans,
tax saver and gold schemes, recurring deposits, deposit schemes for senior citizens and children, unclaimed
deposits, and fixed deposits; and loan products, such as housing, home improvement, vehicle, site, personal,
teachers, gold, online education, and consumer loans, as well as loans against shares/debentures/bonds/units,
loans for senior citizens and owners of the property against rents receivable, mortgages, reverse mortgage loans
for senior citizens, and loans for medical practitioners.
IDBI
IDBI Bank Ltd. is a Universal Bank with its operations driven by a cutting edge core Banking IT
platform. The Bank offers personalized banking and financial solutions to its clients in the retail and corporate
banking arena through its large network of Branches and ATMs, spread across length and breadth of India. We
have also set up an overseas branch at Dubai and have plans to open representative offices in various other parts
of the Globe, for encasing emerging global opportunities. Our experience of financial markets will help us to
effectively cope with challenges and capitalize on the emerging opportunities by participating effectively in our
countrys growth process. The Bank had an aggregate balance sheet size of Rs. 3, 22,769 crore and total
business of Rs 4, 23,423 crore as on March 31, 2013. IDBI Bank's operations during the financial year ended
March 31, 2013 resulted in a net profit of Rs. 1882 crore.
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

Ingyysya Bk
ING Vysya Bank is a privately owned Indian multinational bank based in Bangalore, with retail, wholesale,
and private banking platforms formed from the 2002 purchase of an equity stake in Vysya Bank by the Dutch
ING Group. As of March 2013, ING Vysya is the seventh largest private sector bank in India with assets
totalling 54836 crore (US$8.8 billion) and operating a pan-India network of over 1,000 outlets, including 527
branches, which service over two million customers. ING Group, the highest-ranking institutional shareholder,
currently holds a 44% equity stake in ING Vysya Bank, followed by Aberdeen Asset Management, private
equity firm Chrys Capital, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup, respectively.

V.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS OF MACD AND RSI

5.1.1 Moving average convergence and divergence (MACD):It indicates CAN BK, for the period January 2013 to 20 February 2014
It can be observed that the moving average lines (EMA-9 and EMA-21) had 14 crossovers during the past 1
year. The stock of CAN BK was range bound for the past 1year between the prices of Rs.200 to Rs.450. The
fourth cross over in the beginning of April13 shows the signal to buy and the EMA9 shows an uptrend till
beginning of May13 which lasted for only one month The eight crossovers in August 2013 indicated the trend
would turn bearish; prices dipped from Rs.400 to Rs.325, but were not able to sustain for longer period. The
divergence in eighth cross over at the end of September2013 was so prominent and clear. It also indicated the
reversal of patterns to bearish trend. It can be clearly interpreted when the EMA 9 cuts EMA 21 from below; it
indicates the arrival of bullish phase.
Graph 5.1.1 MACD OF CAN BK

After a sharp correction the prices turned bullish in the month of Oct13 but the prices of the stock was
range bound Rs.200 to Rs.275 from Oct13 till now. The volume of trading was high in the previous three
months.
5.1.2 Relative Strength Index: RSI
It indicates CAN BK, for the period Jan 2013 to 20 February 2014
Graph 5.1.2 RSI OF CAN BK

The RSI indiacator follows the 30:70 rule and it shows the stocks of CAN BK fluctuates between the
support and resistance level of only nine times during the year. The stock touches resistance level in the months
of Mar,Aug,Sep13 and end of Jan14.This indicates the upward market trends associated with increasing
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

investor confidence and increased investing in anticipation of future price rise stocks are oversold.This is
generally interpreted as a sign of the stock is becoming over valued and indication of bullish markets.
It is also inferred that stocks nears the support level four times in the month of April, May and Novand
Dec13.This indicates the downward market trends so stocks are over bought(Predcition to sell).It is a transition
from high investor optimism to wide spread investor pessimism. The RSI indicator provided an indication that
the stock reached over sold regions (Prediction to buy) in the end of Jan14 and overbought signal (Prediction to
sell) in Nov and Dec13.
5.2.1 Moving average convergence and divergence (MACD):It indicates IDBI, for the period January 2013 to 20 February 2014
Graph 5.2.1 MACD OF IDBI

The stock of IDBI was range bound for the past 6 months between the prices of Rs.56 to Rs.70. It can
be observed that the moving average lines (EMA-50 and EMA-100) had 12 crossovers during the past 1 year.
The appearance of shooting star in the month of May 2013 indicated an end to the uptrend and the reversal of
uptrend is clearly indicated by the inverted hammer. For the past 9 months the IDBI shows the highest price of
Rs.90 in the month of May13.MACD shows the buy signal in the month of feb14 for only lesser profits.
5.2.2 RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX: RSI
It indicates IDBI, for the period Jan 2013 to 20 February 2014
Graph 5.2.2 RSI OF IDBI

From the above chart, the RSI indiacator follows the 30:70 rule and it shows the stocks of IDBItouches
the resistance level sixteen times during the year. This indicates the upward market trends associated with
increasing investor confidence so stocks are oversold.This is generally interpreted as a sign of the stock is
becoming over valued and indication of bullish markets.The IDBI stock shows the strong resistance level at
Rs.62, once the stock breaks the first resistance, it is better to go for stock with the target of Rs.Rs.90 in 2
months.It is also inferred that stocks nears the support level threee times in the month of April, May and
Nov13.This indicates the downward market trends so stocks are over bought.It is a transition from high
investor optimism to wide spread investor pessimism. The RSI indicator provided an indication that the stock
reached overbought (Prediction to sell) in Nov13 and over sold regions (Prediction to buy) in the end of Jan14indicating buy and sell signals respectively.
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

5.3.1 Moving average convergence and divergence (MACD):It indicates INGVYSYA BK, for the period January 2013 to 20 February 2014
Graph 5.3.1 MACD OF INGVYSYA BK

It can be observed that the moving average lines (EMA-9 and EMA-21) had 12 crossovers during the
past 1 year. The stock of INGVYSYA BK was range bound for the past 1year between the prices of Rs.425 to
Rs.650. We can observe Doji in the end of July2013. The third cross over in the end of April13 shows the
signal to buy and the EMA-50 shows an uptrend till May13. The seventh crossover in the mid of August 2013
indicated the trend would turn bearish; prices dipped but was not able to sustain for longer period. The
divergence in eighth cross over at the end of September2013 was so prominent and clear. It also indicated the
reversal of patterns to bullish trend. It can be clearly interpreted when the EMA 9 cuts EMA 21 from below; it
indicates the arrival of bullish phase. After a sharp correction the prices turned bullish and reached new high
range bound from Rs. 475 to Rs.575 till mid of October 2013.The volume of trading was high in the month of
June13. The MACD shows the buy signal in the beginning of February14.
5.3.2 RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX: RSI
It indicates INGVYSYA BK, for the period Jan 2013 to 20 February 2014
Graph 5.3.2 RSI OF INGVYSYA BK

From the above chart, the RSI indiacator follows the 30:70 rule and it shows the stocks of INGVYSYA
BK touches the resistance level thirteen times during the months Feb, march, Aug,Sep,Jan and Feb2014. This
indicates the upward market trends associated with increasing investor confidence so stocks are oversold.This is
generally interpreted as a sign of the stock is becoming over valued and indication of bullish market.
It is also inferred that stocks touches support level six times in the month of Jan, April, May,June13.This
indicates the downward market trends so stocks are over bought.It is a transition from high investor optimism
to wide spread investor pessimism.The RSI indicator provided the trend reversal indication that the stock
reached over sold regions (Prediction to buy) in the end of Aug, Sep13 and Feb14 and overbought (Prediction
to go for sell) in Apr,May and June13.
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Effectiveness of Technical Analysis in Banking Sector of Equity Market.

VI.

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

FINDINGS:
1. The IDBI stock shows the strong resistance level at Rs.62, once the stock breaks the first resistance, it
is better to go for stock with the target of Rs.Rs.90 in 2 months.
MACD shows the buy signal in the month of Feb14 for only lesser profits.
2. The stock of INGVYSYA BK was range bound for the past 1year between the prices of Rs.425 to
Rs.650. The MACD shows the buy signal in the beginning of February14, indicates the upward
market trends associated with increasing investor confidence so stocks are oversold.
3. CANBK has shown only lesser growth, but the traded volume increased in the past quarter of 2013.
The MACD lines show the buy signal and RSI also shows the oversold position of the stock.
Suggestions and Recommendations:
The investment in stocks is based on the risk appetite of the investor. Hence the investments suggested
for the year Jan2013 to Feb14 for various categories of investors from the stocks considered for analysis are as
follows:
Low Risk Appetite Investor
INGVYSYABK is a low stock and returns are guaranteed over longer period of time.
Medium Risk Appetite Investor
IDBI is a large cap stocks and although they have shown lesser or negative returns during the past one
year, they have the capability to rebound back in next six months. The stocks show significant trend reversal
patterns and chances of bullish trend are available.
High Risk Appetite Investor
CANBK has undergone severe price correction and it is available at a low price for investors. But the
stock seems range bound and is likely to give returns only in 2 or 3 years. CANBK has also undergone
correction and high divergence between the crossovers.

VII.

CONCLUSION

Technical analysis is a useful technique in guiding investment decisions. In light of our study on fifteen
companies, we have seen how technical analysis can be used to predict the possible futures swings of stock
prices. After analysing the companies, the following conclusion was drawn.
According to RSI as the Gain increases, there is increase in the RSI value, which indicates that there is
increase in the share price. This states to the investor that it is a strong sell signal. Whenever there is decrease in
the share price value, RSI value decreases which indicates the investor that it is a strong buy signal. In general,
we can conclude from the result that technical indicators can play useful role in the timing stock market entry
and exit. By applying technical indicators brokers or investors enjoy substantial profit. Technical analysis
cannot be answer for the questions faced by analyst. It has to be in combination with fundamental analysis to
have maximum effect.
Analysis can offer great insight but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. As the stock
prices are dynamic in nature, combination of Fundamental analysis and technical analysis will increases the
percentage of accuracy and thus giving an idea to the investor to invest in that stock which will yield him good
returns.
Technical analysis gives investor a better understanding of the stocks and also gives them right
direction to go on further to buy or sell the stocks .Investors must also take into account various factors like
Government of India budget, company performance, political and social events, climatic conditions etc. before
any decision is made. The scrip should also be fundamentally good. Therefore, the small investors and traders
should not blindly make an investment rather they should analyse using the various tools to check if the scrip is
technically strong.

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Websites
www.nseindia.com
http://www.indiainfoline.com
www.in.yahoo.finance.com
www.bseindia.com
www.icharts.com

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