HP Analyst Report
HP Analyst Report
(Analyst)
(415) 633-8659
[email protected]
Mitch Steves (Analyst)
(415) 633-8535
[email protected]
Sector: IT Hardware
Sector Perform
Hewlett-Packard Company
Our view: HPQ's Jan-qtr results ($12.2B/$0.36) were largely in line with
consensus ($12.1B/$0.36),
Key points:
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW: HPQ's Jan-qtr results were reflective of macro
challenges in both its PC and Printing markets. Specifically, HPQ's doubledigit revenue declines were due to: 1) broader PC market weakness
negatively impacting PSG volume and pricing; 2) strategic sales of printing
hardware units (shifting sales away from low-use customers toward
higher-value, high-usage customers); and 3) Supplies installed base
erosion, channel inventory adjustments, and share losses to aftermarket.
We note that the company's FY16E EPS/FCF guidance of $1.591.69/
$2.32.6B assumes a H2:16 improvement in both PC and Supplies
revenue trajectories combined with benefits of cost actions (accelerated
restructuring activity). While the stock is trading at an attractive valuation/
dividend yield, our concern is that, in the event broader macro headwinds
persist through 2016, there could be risk to FY16E numbers. Maintaining
Sector Perform rating and $11 price target.
Quarter Review: HPQ reported Jan-qtr revenues/EPS of $12.2B/$0.36,
which was largely in line with consensus expectations of $12.1B/$0.36.
Notably, EPS was at the midpoint of managements expectations ($0.33
0.38). Total revenues were down -11.6% y/y. Revenue performance by
segment included the following: PSG was down -13% y/y while IPG was
also down -17% y/y. A one-time benefit from the release of deferred
revenue related to the HPE separation benefited total revenue growth by
~12pts. Adjusted operating margin of 7.8% was down -60bps y/y and up
+70bps q/q. HPQ used -$108M in cash from operations and had -$228M
in FCF, which is below expectations of +$300M in FCF.
BS and Cash Flow: Cash cycle days were up four days y/y to -15 days.
The company had -228M in free cash flow for the Jan-qtr. The company
believes it should generate $2.32.6B of FCF in FY16 ($2.93.2B on a
normalized basis after adjusting for $300M in cash restructuring charges
and $300M in cash separation expenses).
Irvin Liu
(Senior Associate)
(415) 633-8539
[email protected]
Jeriel Ong (Senior Associate)
(415) 633-8559
[email protected]
In-Depth Report
Est. Change
Preview
News Analysis
Scenario Analysis*
Downside
Scenario
Current
Price
Price
Target
Upside
Scenario
8.00
21%
10.82
11.00
6%
14.00
34%
Key Statistics
Shares O/S (MM):
Dividend:
1,785.0
0.50
19,314
4.6%
18,347,846
RBC Estimates
FY Oct
Revenue
Prev.
EPS, Adj Diluted
Prev.
P/AEPS
2014A
111.4
2015A
103.4
2017E
46.2
47.3
1.64
3.0x
2016E
47.6
48.5
1.59
1.58
6.8x
3.74
3.59
2.9x
Revenue
2015
2016
Prev.
2017
Prev.
EPS, Adj Diluted
2015
2016
Prev.
2017
Prev.
Q1
26.8A
12.2A
12.3E
11.6E
11.9E
Q2
25.5A
11.8E
12.1E
11.4E
11.9E
Q3
25.3A
11.7E
11.9E
11.4E
11.6E
Q4
25.7A
11.9E
12.2E
11.7E
12.0E
0.92A
0.36A
0.34E
0.37E
0.36E
0.87A
0.37E
0.42E
0.39E
0.44E
0.88A
0.42E
0.34E
0.43E
0.35E
0.93A
0.44E
0.48E
0.46E
0.49E
6.6x
2014 and first three quarters of 2015 are historicals pending restatement
by the company and do not reflect the spin-off of HPE.
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios
Investment summary
Exhibit 1: Hewlett-Packard Co
125 Weeks
04OCT13 - 24FEB16
43
33
28
23
18
UPSIDE
14.00
TARGET
CURRENT
11.00
10.82
13
DOWNSIDE 8.00
8
300m
200m
100m
2013
2014
2015
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
HPQ
Feb 2017
MA 40 weeks
Potential catalysts
Supplies recovery: HPQ Supplies' quarterly revenue has
declined on a y/y basis for the last 16 quarters. The company
expects the decline to continue through FY16. We think a
moderation in decline or revenue stabilization in HPQ's highermargin supplies business could drive improved mix and margin
upside.
PC stabilization: A better than expected improvement in the
PC Market could positively impact HPQ's Personal Systems
revenue trajectory.
Risks
Global Macro Downturn: A muted IT spend environment
would negatively impact revenue and margin profiles for the
company.
Competition: The risk of HP Inc. using supplies margins as a
lever to drive an aggressive pricing strategy to increase install
base could yield margin headwinds in FY16 and beyond.
Currency: ~60% of HPQ's revenue is generated outside the
United States. A depreciation of global currency relative to the
U.S. dollar could negatively impact both revenue and EPS.
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Jan-15
$12,246
$13,858
$12,266
$12,257
Y/Y
-0.1%
0.2%
$9,961
$11,173
$9,900
$9,941
-10.8%
% Of Sales
81.3%
80.6%
80.7%
81.1%
+ 70 bps
Gross Profit
$2,285
$2,685
$2,366
$2,317
Gross Margin
(14.9%)
(1.4%)
(70 bps)
(20 bps)
$374
-3.9%
-21.9%
2.3%
3.1%
+ 20 bps
(70 bps)
18.7%
19.4%
19.3%
18.9%
$292
$304
$282
% Of Sales
2.4%
2.2%
SG&A
Vs. RBC
-11.6%
$1,037
$1,222
$1,212
$1,066
-15.1%
-2.8%
% Of Sales
8.5%
8.8%
9.9%
8.7%
(30 bps)
(20 bps)
Operating Income
$916
$1,101
$814
$864
7.8%
8.4%
7.1%
7.2%
-16.8%
6.0%
(60 bps)
+ 70 bps
-22.3%
-49.9%
$94
$121
$99
$188
$822
$980
$715
$677
-16.1%
21.5%
6.7%
7.1%
5.8%
5.5%
(40 bps)
+ 120 bps
$177
$215
$167
$145
22%
22%
23%
22%
-17.7%
21.7%
(40 bps)
+ 0 bps
$645.0
$765.0
$548.0
$531.2
-15.7%
21.4%
After-Tax Margin
5.3%
5.5%
4.5%
4.3%
(30 bps)
+ 90 bps
Shares - Diluted
1,785
1,861
1,821
1,813
-4.1%
-1.5%
$0.36
$0.42
$0.30
$0.34
-13.4%
5.8%
RBC Perspective
Largely in-line with Street after adjusting for deferred revenue separation benefit
Guidance
HPQ maintained its FY16 EPS guidance range of $1.591.69, including Apr-qtr EPS of $0.35
0.40 (Street $0.39). HPQ guided to double-digit y/y declines in both IPG hardware and
supplies for Apr-qtr. The company lowered its FY16E FCF guide by $100M at the midpoint to
$2.32.6B (from $2.42.7B) to reflect cash restructuring costs from the acceleration of its
restructuring plan (HPQ now expects 3,000 employees to exit by FY16 ahead of prior FY18
target). The company still expects to generate $2.93.2B of FCF on a normalized basis, after
adjusting for $300M in cash restructuring payments and $300M in separation cash
payments.
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Segment Review
Personal Systems Group (~60% of sales)
HPQ reported PSG revenues of $7.5B, -13% y/y, with operating margin of 3.1%, which was
down -60bps q/q and down -40bps y/y. Commerical revenue declined -11% y/y and
consumer was down -16% y/y. Revenues from Notebooks were down -11.0% y/y while
desktop revenues were down -14.3% y/y; units of notebooks were down -11% y/y and
desktop units fell -13% y/y. For the Apr-qtr, we see revenues decreasing -8% y/y on
continued softness in the PC market offset by a somewhat easier y/y comparison. Over time,
we see room for margin improvement via benefits from cost reductions, supply chain
efficiencies, and the introduction of new products.
6%
$9,500
5%
$9,000
$8,500
4%
$8,000
3%
$7,500
$7,000
2%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Segment Sales
Notebooks
Des ktops
Works tations
Other
Personal Systems Group
Segment Operating Margin
Jan-16
$4,205
$2,527
$444
$291
$7,467
Jan-15
$4,724
$2,949
$526
$363
$8,562
Oct-15
$4,384
$2,530
$472
$308
$7,694
3.1%
3.5%
3.7%
Y/Y %
-11%
-14%
-16%
-20%
-13%
-40 bps
Q/Q %
-4%
-0%
-6%
-6%
-3%
-60 bps
Jan-16
PSG Margins
IPG posted revenues of $4.6B, -17% y/y and -7% q/q. Supplies revenue fell -13.9% y/y and
-4.3% q/q. Management indicated that the segment lost a three points of total share y/y in
calendar Q4 due to strategic selling and pricing discipline but gained one point in share in the
value multi-function laser printer market. Commercial hardware units declined -15% y/y
while consumer hardware units were down -23% y/y. Segment operating margins of 17.0%
was up +10bps q/q fell -180 bps y/y.
20%
$6,250
18%
$6,000
$5,750
14%
Segment Sales
Commerci a l Ha rdwa re
Cons umer Ha rdwa re
Suppl i es
Other
12%
16%
$5,500
$5,250
$5,000
Jan-16
$1,219
$322
$3,101
$4,642
Jan-15
$1,394
$601
$3,601
$5,596
Oct-15
$1,366
$360
$3,239
$4,965
Y/Y %
-13%
-46%
-14%
-17%
17.0%
18.8%
16.9%
-180 bps
Q/Q %
-11%
-11%
-4%
-7%
+10 bps
$4,750
$4,500
10%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Printing Group
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
IPG Margins
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Estimate Changes
Our FY16 revenue/EPS estimates are $47.6B/$1.59, including our Apr-qtr forecast of
$11.8B/$0.37. For FY17, we are modeling $46.2B/$1.64.
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Valuation
Our price target of $11 is based on a FTM P/E multiple of ~7x. Our target multiple reflects a
significant discount to the large cap technology company peer group average due to HPQs
<10% operating margin (lowest among peer group) and negative revenue trajectory.
Company description
HP Inc. provides a variety of personal computing products, imaging & printing hardware,
and related peripherals to consumers, small-medium businesses, and enterprises. Its largest
segment on a revenue basis remains the Personal Systems Group, followed by the Imaging and
Printing Group. In terms of operating profits, however, the largest contributor is the Imaging
& Printing Group.
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Jan-16
Apr-16E
$12,246.0
$11,756.7
$11,664.1
Q/Q Change
-0.2%
-4.0%
Y/Y Change
-11.6%
-9.4%
9,961.0
81.3%
Oct-16E
Jan-17E
Apr-17E
Jul-17E
2.1%
-2.4%
-2.0%
0.1%
3.0%
NA
NA
NA
NA
-5.7%
-2.9%
-5.1%
-3.1%
-2.2%
-1.4%
-7.5%
-3.0%
-5.8%
-2.0%
9,522.9
9,401.3
9,566.7
9,432.6
9,193.0
9,170.5
9,409.2
38,451.8
37,205.4
37,923.4
37,030.6
81.0%
80.6%
80.3%
81.1%
80.7%
80.4%
80.1%
80.8%
80.6%
80.8%
80.5%
2,285.0
2,233.8
2,262.8
2,347.0
2,192.4
2,198.6
2,235.6
2,337.6
9,128.6
8,964.2
9,036.0
8,980.1
18.7%
19.0%
19.4%
19.7%
18.9%
19.3%
19.6%
19.9%
19.2%
19.4%
19.2%
19.5%
Q/Q Change
-3.4%
-2.2%
1.3%
3.7%
-6.6%
0.3%
1.7%
4.6%
NA
NA
NA
NA
Y/Y Change
-14.9%
-16.8%
-3.2%
-0.8%
-4.1%
-1.6%
-1.2%
-0.4%
-9.4%
-1.8%
-6.6%
-0.6%
292.0
282.2
279.9
285.9
279.0
273.4
285.2
281.9
1,140.0
1,119.5
1,127.0
1,115.7
% Of Sales
Q/Q Change
2.4%
3.5%
2.4%
-3.4%
2.4%
-0.8%
2.4%
2.1%
2.4%
-2.4%
2.4%
-2.0%
2.5%
4.3%
2.4%
-1.1%
2.4%
NA
2.4%
NA
2.4%
NA
2.4%
NA
-3.9%
-27.5%
-24.6%
1.4%
-4.5%
-3.1%
1.9%
-1.4%
-15.3%
-1.8%
-15.5%
-1.0%
921.5
953.1
972.8
889.7
SG&A
987.6
945.5
$46,011
928.0
3,899.1
3,736.0
3,834.9
3,711.2
8.5%
8.4%
7.9%
8.0%
8.4%
8.3%
7.8%
7.9%
8.2%
8.1%
8.2%
8.1%
Q/Q Change
-14.4%
-4.8%
-6.7%
3.4%
2.1%
-2.8%
-5.9%
4.3%
NA
NA
NA
NA
Y/Y Change
-15.1%
-19.8%
-19.0%
-21.4%
-6.2%
-4.3%
-3.4%
-2.6%
-18.8%
-4.2%
-17.0%
-3.2%
% Of Sales
1,037.0
$46,959
CY17E
-0.8%
Y/Y Change
$46,170
CY16E
$11,391.6
Gross Margin
$47,580
FY17E
$11,625.0
Gross Profit
$11,746.9
FY16E
$11,913.6
% Of Sales
$11,406.1
Oct-17E
Amortization of Intangibles
40.0
35.3
29.2
29.8
29.1
28.5
28.5
29.4
134.2
115.4
123.3
115.0
% Of Sales
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
916.0
928.8
1,032.3
1,078.2
911.5
951.2
1,032.3
1,098.3
3,955.2
3,993.3
3,950.8
4,038.2
7.5%
7.8%
7.9%
8.2%
8.8%
9.1%
9.1%
9.3%
7.8%
8.1%
8.4%
8.6%
9.1%
9.3%
9.3%
9.6%
8.3%
8.6%
8.6%
8.9%
8.4%
8.7%
8.8%
9.0%
11.5%
9.0%
-32.2%
-75.0%
0.7%
-6.1%
0.0%
-12.1%
8.6%
8.9%
8.6%
8.8%
94.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
349.0
320.0
335.0
320.0
822.0
838.8
947.3
998.2
831.5
871.2
952.3
1,018.3
3,606.2
3,673.3
3,615.8
3,718.2
6.7%
7.1%
8.1%
8.4%
7.2%
7.6%
8.3%
8.7%
7.6%
8.0%
7.7%
8.1%
177.0
180.3
203.7
214.6
178.8
187.3
204.7
218.9
775.6
789.8
777.4
784.4
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
21%
$186
$188
$210
$221
$185
$193
$211
$225
$804
$815
$804
$809
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
21.1%
$645
$658
$744
$784
$653
$684
$748
$799
$2,831
$2,884
$2,838
$2,919
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Net Profit
Preferred Dividends
$645
0.0
$658
0.0
$744
0.0
$784
0.0
$653
0.0
$684
0.0
$748
0.0
$799
0.0
$2,831
0.0
$2,884
0.0
$2,838
0.0
$2,919
0.0
645.0
658.4
743.6
783.6
652.7
683.9
747.5
799.4
2,830.6
2,883.5
2,838.4
2,918.8
5.3%
5.6%
6.4%
6.6%
5.6%
6.0%
6.6%
6.8%
5.9%
6.2%
6.0%
6.3%
After-Tax Margin
Shares - Basic
1,776
1,771
1,766
1,761
1,756
1,751
1,746
1,741
1,769
1,749
1,764
1,744
Shares - Diluted
1,785
1,780
1,775
1,770
1,765
1,760
1,755
1,750
1,778
1,758
1,773
1,753
$0.36
$0.37
$0.42
$0.44
$0.37
$0.39
$0.43
$0.46
$1.59
$1.64
$1.60
$1.62
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Required disclosures
Conflicts disclosures
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including
total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated
by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
Please note that current conflicts disclosures may differ from those as of the publication date on, and as set forth in,
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DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1 or send a request to RBC CM Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza,
29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for
Hewlett-Packard Co in the past 12 months.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from
Hewlett-Packard Co in the past 12 months.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC makes a market in the securities of Hewlett-Packard Co.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than
investment banking services from Hewlett-Packard Co during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC
Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-securities services to Hewlett-Packard Co.
RBC Capital Markets is currently providing Hewlett-Packard Co with non-securities services.
RBC Capital Markets has provided Hewlett-Packard Co with investment banking services in the past 12 months.
RBC Capital Markets has provided Hewlett-Packard Co with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
Distribution of ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories
- Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick(TP)/
Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively,
the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Distribution of ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Dec-2015
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
BUY [Top Pick & Outperform]
HOLD [Sector Perform]
SELL [Underperform]
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
933
727
114
52.59
40.98
6.43
271
102
8
29.05
14.03
7.02
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include
the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8),
the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL 9), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11).
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The abbreviation 'RL On' means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation 'RL Off' means the date
a security was removed from a Recommended List.
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RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request.
To access our current policy, clients should refer to
February 25, 2016
IT Hardware
Hewlett-Packard Co
https://www.rbccm.com/global/file-414164.pdf
or send a request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South
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All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of
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The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (MSCI) and Standard & Poors Financial Services
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in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,
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