Alliance at Risk 2016

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition
Alliance at Risk
Strengthening European Defense in an
Age of Turbulence and Competition
Giampaolo Di Paola
Franois Heisbourg
Patrick Keller
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Rapporteur: Jorge Benitez
Richard Shirreff
Tomasz Szatkowski
Rolf Tamnes
1
This publication is a product of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International

Securitys Transatlantic Security Initiative in partnership with Airbus.
Alliance at Risk
Strengthening European Defense in an
Age of Turbulence and Competition
Rapporteur: Dr. Jorge Benitez is the Director of NATOSource and a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Research Assistant: Albin Aronsson.
Acknowledgement: Thank you to Magnus Nordenman, Romain Warnault, Diya Li, Robbie Gramer, Sarah
DeLucia, and Jeff Fleischer for their valuable contributions to this report.
ISBN: 978-1-61977-963-1
Cover photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom. RAF Typhoon and Russian Su-27 Flanker.
This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual
Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic
Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this
reports conclusions.
February 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD 1
INTRODUCTION
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE
11
GERMANY
17
POLAND
23
ITALY
27
NORWAY
A
PEN
APPENDIX
31
37
FOREWORD
For more than six decades, NATO has provided the

shield behind which the democracies of Europe
have prospered in peace. By standing together, the
allies prevented another major conflict in Europe so
their societies could rebuild from the catastrophic
destruction of World War II. Investing in strong
defense and deterrence did not prevent the members
of NATO from improving their respective economies.
On the contrary, the safety and security provided by
NATO was one of the factors that made it possible
for the Western democracies to recover from war and
achieve greater levels of economic
prosperity than ever before in the
history of Europe.
economic interests. Every member of NATO is more

prosperous and secure today than the day it joined
NATO. NATO provides all of its members with more
defense capabilities for less money than they would
have individually. Through NATO, every euro invested
in defense provides each nation with more than a
euros worth of defense capabilities. For example,
thanks to NATO the Baltic republics benefit from air
defense capabilities they could not afford, Turkey
benefits from Patriot missile defense systems it
does not own, and Great Britain benefits from antisubmarine capabilities it no longer
possesses. To quote the motto of
the US forces in Europe, NATO
makes all of its members Stronger
Together.
NATO provides
all of its members
with more defense
capabilities for
less money than
they would have
individually.
Although
the
allies
faced
many challenges, crises, and
confrontations with the Soviet
Union during the Cold War, national
commitments to deterrence and
strong defense through NATO
kept the peace. The generations
that created NATO and won
the Cold War did so with fewer
resources than we have today.
Today the transatlantic community
faces a world that is more turbulent and threatening
than at any period since the end of the Cold War.
The crumbling order in the Middle East has spawned
refugee flows not seen since World War II, and has
given rise to potent nonstate groups with the reach and
power to not only destabilize countries in the region,
but also carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. Russias
continued aggression and assertiveness threatens the
European security order based on the premise of a
Europe whole, free, and at peace. In spite of this new
security environment and pledges made at the NATO
summit in Wales in 2014 to invest in defense, the recent
record on European defense spending and investment
is arguably very mixed, to put it mildly.
Now is our time to invest responsibly in the Alliance,
not in spite of our economic interests and challenges,
but because NATO protects both our security and
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
In a few months, NATOs leaders

will gather for a summit meeting in
Warsaw, Poland. They will discuss
many challenges faced by the
Alliance. Strengthening European
defense will be a common element
that contributes to overcoming
these multiple threats to NATO.
Strengthening European defense
will provide the resources to help deter the threat from
the East and prevail over the dangers from the South.
Strengthening European defense will also provide the
capabilities to tackle new threats, such as cyberattacks
and the spread of ballistic missiles. And strengthening
European defense will help restore balance to the
transatlantic relationship and facilitate continued
investments in European security from our allies in
North America.
I welcome this report because we will all benefit from
its goal of strengthening European defense. In these
perilous times, there is no better investment for our
democracies than to defend the safety of their citizens
and peace in Europe.
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
Former Secretary General of NATO
INTRODUCTION
The broader transatlantic community faces a new

and dynamic security environment, which includes a
newly assertive Russia intent on altering the European
security order in its favor and a turbulent and violence
wracked Middle East and North Africa that has, among
other things, spawned the rise of the Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and refugee flows not seen
since the end of World War II. Europes security climate
is arguably at its worst in over twenty-five years.
To respond to these new security challenges, the
members of NATO committed themselves at the
2014 NATO summit in Wales to increased defense
spending after a long period of defense austerity
across the Alliance, and to a greater focus on defense
investment. To date, however, the results of these new
commitments have been mixed at best. The lack of
broad progress is especially worrying as the Alliance
approaches the Warsaw Summit during the summer
of 2016, a milestone where many hope that NATO can
begin to build a new and robust long-term approach to
the new security challenges to NATOs east and south.
To highlight the challenges in defense spending, and
provide recommendations on the way forward, the
Atlantic Council launched its Alliance at Risk project,
which draws together noted experts and former senior
officials to provide analysis and recommendations for
how the Alliance should think about defense spending
and defense investments in these turbulent times.
The project highlights six leading NATO nations from
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
the Alliances north, south, east, and west, which also

serves to illuminate the many perspectives and diverse
defense priorities that exists within the Alliance today.
Defense spending and investment is complex, and
can hardly be judged on numbers alone. In terms of
generating capabilities and ready forces, it is often
just as important how the funding gets spent, as
how much of it is put into the defense budget. This
project therefore looks beyond the raw numbers, and
provides analysis and recommendations from experts
and practitioners that are intimately familiar with the
nations covered in this report.
The transatlantic community faces a long-term future
of turbulence and competition, which features both
state and nonstate adversaries, as well as strategic
shocks and sudden change. Strengthening European
defense capabilities will be a key building block to
ensure that NATO can remain relevant and able to
defend the values and interests of its members, and
provide for peace and stability in Europe. As NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized;
We are facing the biggest security challenges in a
generation. They are complex, interrelated and come
from many directions. . . . So now is the time to invest
in our defense.
This Atlantic Council project would not have been
possible without the generous support of Airbus,
the Councils long-standing partner on transatlantic
security issues.
UNITED KINGDOM
by Richard Shirreff
The publication of the 2015 Strategic Defense and

Security Review (SDSR) is a watershed moment for
the United Kingdom (UK).1 It offers the opportunity
to rebuild capabilities lost in the past decade of
resources-driven defense reviews and to arrest the
weakening trend in defense and foreign policy that
has been a feature of the last five years. With strong
political leadership and a willingness to think and act
strategically, the David Cameron
government has the chance to
re-establish the UK as a force for
good in defense and security and
a respected European contributor
to NATO.
In order to understand how the Cameron governments

SDSR will reset defense and improve the capability of
the British armed forces, it is important to examine the
broader political and strategic context behind it. This
also requires addressing the current global security
environment as the UK finds it, and not as the UK
would like to see it.
The David Cameron

government has
the chance to
re-establish the
UK as a force for
good in defense
and security
and a respected
European
contributor to
NATO.
Even before the SDSR was

released, there was evidence
for optimism. In particular, the
decision in Chancellor of the
Exchequer George Osbornes
budget to ring-fence defense
spending at 2 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) sent a
much-needed signal of political
commitment, and did much for UK
credibility.2 But the rhetoric must
be backed by substance. Despite
Osbornes announcement, a Royal
United Services Institute report
warned that defense spending will fall to 1.85 percent
of GDP by the end of the decade (unless the budgets
for the intelligence agencies are included). SDSR will
help repair the damage that has been done to UK
defense capabilities since the turn of the century. Two
percent of GDP is probably the minimum amount of
spending needed to prevent our military from falling
to a diminished capability and becoming a hollowedout force. Regenerating lost capabilities will almost
certainly require more resources.
1 Government of the United Kingdom, National Security Strategy
and Strategic Defence and Security Review, November 2015,
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
attachment_data/file/478933/52309_Cm_9161_NSS_SD_
Review_web_only.pdf
2 HM Treasury and the Rt Hon. George Osborne MP, Government
of the United Kingdom, Summer Budget 2015, https://www.
gov.uk/government/publications/summer-budget-2015/summerbudget-2015.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
First, as the Prussian military

strategist Carl von Clausewitz
reminds us, the heart of the
challenge faced in the conduct of
war is to understand the character
of conflict, that ever-enduring
feature of the human condition.3
Even more difficult is the
challenge of identifying what the
future holds. As military historian
Professor Sir Michael Howard
warns, No matter how clearly one
thinks, it is impossible to anticipate
precisely the character of future
conflict. The key is not to be so
far off the mark that it becomes
impossible to adjust once that
character is revealed.4 Therefore,
what will the character of twentyfirst-century conflict require of
Britains armed forces?
In essence, the nonstate and state actors that Britain

will face on the battlefield will all take advantage
of various asymmetric techniques and capabilities
to circumvent Britains strengths and exploit its
vulnerabilities. Instead of the traditional spectrum
of warfare, with peacekeeping operations on one
end and total war between states on the other,
adversaries will challenge the UK with a dynamic
combination of different forms of warfare, rather than
a neat escalation from one type to another. Thus, our
forces could face conventional and irregular warfare,
terrorism, insurgency, and criminal activity at the
3 Carl von Clausewitz, On War, translated and edited by Michael
Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University
Press, 1976).
4 Michael Howard, The Use and Abuse of Military History
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1983), pp. 194-5.
Challenger 2 tank of the Royal Welsh Battle Group. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
same time, instead of in theoretical isolation from

one another. This type of conflict is called a hybrid
conflict, an amalgamation of high-tech combat
operations and long-term stabilization operations.
Some of these hybrid conflicts can result in combat of
extreme intensity. Hybrid conflicts such as these will be
relentless and will tax our physical and psychological
endurance. These conflicts will also need to be won
under intense scrutiny from the media and politically
empowered and well-connected groups with insatiable
demands for information.5
Furthermore, these complex hybrid conflicts will
probably remain a defining characteristic of warfare
in the twenty-first century, even in conflicts between
states. Thus, Iraq and Afghanistan are not aberrations
but representations of the future, as was Lebanon in
2006, Georgia in 2008, and most recently, Syria and
eastern Ukraine. So in general terms, the UK faces two
primary challenges: defense and security, each of which
epitomizes the breadth of issues that the SDSR must
confront.
5 Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, Unity of Purpose in Hybrid Conflict:
Managing the Civilian/Military Disconnect and Operationalizing
the Comprehensive Approach, speech delivered at Chatham
House on March 23, 2010, https://www.chathamhouse.org/
sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Meetings/Meeting%20
Transcripts/230310shirreff.pdf.
The threat to UK defense is posed by a resurgent

Russia. The Russian invasion of Crimea, its support for
separatists, and its invasion of eastern Ukraine have
effectively ripped up the post-Cold War settlement
of Europe. President Vladimir Putin has shattered any
thoughts of a strategic partnership with NATO; instead,
Russia is now a de facto strategic adversary. Even
more dangerously, the threat is potentially existential,
because Putin has constructed an international
dynamic that could put Russia on a collision course
with NATO. At the center of this collision would be the
significant Russian-speaking populations in the Baltic
states, whose interests are used by the Kremlin to
justify Russias aggressive actions in the region. Under
Article 5 of NATOs Washington Treaty, any military
move by Putin on the Baltic states would trigger war,
potentially on a nuclear scale, because the Russians
integrate nuclear weapons into every aspect of their
military thinking.
The implications for UKs SDSR are clear. Britains
previous National Defense Strategy stated, among
other things, that there is no existential threat to its
shores.6 Putin has rendered this strategy obsolete,
6 Government of the United Kingdom, A Strong Britain in an Age
of Uncertainty: The National Security Strategy, October 2010,
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
not least because there is an existential threat to the

territory of the allies Britain must defend through
Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO
state is an attack on all. While the SDSR does not
face the existential threat posed by Russia head on, it
does make it clear that the UKs independent nuclear
deterrent is essential and calls for the acquisition
of four new nuclear armed submarines to replace the
Vanguard class and provide a Continuous At Sea
Deterrent.7
Furthermore, the UK must structure and resource its
armed forces to meet the needs of NATO as it faces its
greatest defense challenge since the end of the Cold
War. While NATOs declaration at its 2014 Summit
outlined ambitious new measures to deter Putin, no
member state has since followed up with significant
defense spending increases. Through the SDSR,
the UK, as the largest defense spender in Europe, is
beginning to step up and play a
leading role, ensuring NATO sends
a powerful message of deterrence
to Russia. The message is thus
far perhaps but absolutely no
further, and it requires a strategy
in which diplomacy and sanctions
are backed up by military strength.
Underpinning everything that
NATO (and therefore the UK) does
is the need for strong conventional
and nuclear deterrence to ensure
that Putin does not gamble on
what he rightly perceives to be
Western weaknesses.
presence in the region. Along with the Baltic airpolicing mission, effective deterrence demands more
than just episodic training activity. Rather, a permanent
land presence is required to prevent any Russian coup
de main operation that could achieve its aims before
any NATO reserves are able to react. Given the UKs
strong defense relationship with Norway, Denmark,
and the Baltic states, the capability of Britains armed
forces, and the respect in which they are still held, it
would be appropriate for the UK to contribute units
to a combined arms brigade, equipped with tanks,
armored infantry, artillery, engineers, and attack
helicopters based in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
In addition to in-place forces, NATO also needs strong
and capable reserves able to deter attacks within the
airspace, through the sea lines of communication,
and within the territory of the Alliance. This means
having the right command and control, readiness,
and capabilities. There are high
expectations surrounding the
establishment of NATOs Very
High
Readiness
Joint
Task
Force, but unless it is a standing
forcetrained and ready, with
permanently allocated units and
a fixed command structureit will
be useless. At the very least, NATO
needs
a
twenty-first-century
version of the Allied Command
Europe (ACE) Mobile Force,
which had a permanent tactical
headquarters and allocated units
across the Alliance. The ACE
Mobile Force trained annually
in northern Norway or Turkey,
under the direct command of the Supreme Allied
Commander Europe (SACEUR). Only such a force,
capable of a rapid response, will be an adequate highreadiness reserve. Britain should consider taking on
framework nation responsibility as it did effectively
with its innovative establishment of the first of NATOs
High Readiness Forces (Land) (HRF(L)), the Allied
Rapid Reaction Corps (HQ ARRC), in 1992.
To deter any
Russian
encroachment
into the Baltic
states, NATO
should establish
a permanent
presence in the
region.
In terms of defense, the UK also

needs to think through what
collective defense means in the twenty-first century in
the face of a Russian asymmetric approach that seeks
to undermine the integrity of a state from within, and is
below the threshold that would trigger a multinational,
Article 5 response. The UK needs to develop strategies
that help its allies counter the manipulation of
minorities by Russian Special Forces, in addition to
improving resilience against psychological operations
and cyberattacks. This needs careful thought. However,
there also needs to be training and education at the
highest political levels to ensure that the decision
makers in NATO are ready for the challenge when it
comes. Britain is well-placed to play a lead role in this.
Next, to deter any Russian encroachment into the
Baltic states, NATO should establish a permanent
attachment_data/file/61936/national-security-strategy.pdf.
7 Government of the United Kingdom, National Security Strategy
and Strategic Defence and Security Review, op. cit.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
On top of this, the NATO response force needs to be

rebuilt and capable of deploying a corps-sized force
for warfighting at graduated readiness. On land, Britain
should be ready to provide the corps headquarters
based on HQ ARRC (still the primus inter pares of
HRF(L) in the Alliance) but also a division of three
brigades, together with the necessary level of combat
and combat service support. Such a powerful package
must also be matched by similar capabilities at sea and
in the air.
Royal Navy Astute class submarine HMS Ambush. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
In terms of security, the challenge that the UK faces,

along with its Western allies in NATO, the European
Union (EU), and the G7, is the pernicious threat of
jihadi Islam let loose by a combination of the invasion
of Iraq in 2003, the Arab Spring, the Syrian civil war,
and the collapse of Libya in 2011. While this does not
pose the existential threat that war with Russia would,
particularly given the nuclear dimension, it does pose
a generational security and terrorist threat to Western
citizens worldwide. This security threat has plunged
the Middle East into chaos and bloodshed and is a real
and present threat to the internal security of Western
nations.
Ultimately, the solution to the phenomenon of ISIS and
other jihadist groups lies in winning the battle of ideas,
and this solution can only come from within Islam in
the form of an Islamic reformation. Nevertheless, the
British armed forces, along with their allies, have a
role to play as part of an internationally agreed upon,
comprehensive, and politically led strategy. While
large-scale coalition military deployments, such as
those we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, are potentially
counterproductive, there are two ways in which British
armed forces can contribute to a strategy to neutralize
jihadism as a threat.
First, through the deployment of precision strike; special

forces; and other intelligence, surveillance, target
acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) assets to target
the enemy. Second, through the stabilization of fragile
states via full-spectrum capacity building, part of which
includes growing the capabilities and professionalism
of indigenous armed forces so they can take on the
jihadis themselves. In addition to rebuilding a high-end
warfighting capability, the SDSR should institutionalize
and provide the resources for Britains armed forces to
deploy capacity building teams with appropriate force
protection and logistical support.
However, none of this will happen without the right
strategic thinking or resources. First, the Cameron
government must discover a willingness to commit the
right ways and means to achieve strategic effect against
the UKs adversaries. The coalition governments
timid unwillingness to make an overseas commitment
must be set aside, and Prime Minister Cameron must
discover the confidence to commit appropriately to
contributing to the defense and security challenges
of the age. Above all, the relationship with the United
States must be rebuilt, and the pride in standing
shoulder to shoulder with the UKs most important ally
rediscovered. As US President Barack Obama said in a
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
British Royal Marines skiing in Norway. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
recent BBC interview, part of the greatness of Great

Britain, of the United Kingdom, is that it is willing, as
we are, to project power beyond our immediate selfinterests to make this a more orderly, safer world.8
The Cameron government must demonstrate that it is
ready to rebuild and live up to that
reputation.
under-trained reserves; the scrapping of Royal Navy

escort ships; carriers built but with no aircraft to fly
off of them for some years; the disposing of this island
nations maritime patrol aircraft. On top of this, a force
hollowed out to such an extent that the deployment
of a brigade, let alone a division,
at credible readiness would be
a major challenge. Indeed, last
Novembers deployment of a
small armored battlegroup to
Polandto take part in a flagship
NATO exercise to demonstrate
solidarity against Russiaalmost
necessitated retrieving tanks from
the training fleet in the western
prairies of Canada, because the
serviceability and spares situation
in the UKs fleet was so dire.9
[The UKs military

has been] hollowed
out to such an
extent that the
deployment of a
brigade, let alone a
division, at credible
readiness would be
a major challenge.
Second, this defense review is

an opportunity to re-establish
credibility, not only with the United
States but also with Britains
allies, who are disappointed at
the diminished stance of Western
Europes premier military power.
The UK government has made a
good start with its commitment
on defense spending. Now it
must put its defense house in
order. And there is much to be
done after the severe cuts made
by the coalition government:
regular army manpower slashed by nearly 20 percent
and increased dependence on under-recruited,
8 Full Transcript of BBC Interview with President Barack Obama,
BBC, July 24, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-uscanada-33646542.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Finally, for this review to be

genuinely strategic, statesmanship
will be necessary and short-term
political calculation will need to be set aside. The
implementation of the new national defense strategy
9 British Army on Polish NATO Exercise, British Army, November
20, 2014, http://www.army.mod.uk/news/26733.aspx.
RAF Reaper drone. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
must address the threats of the age, whether it is

revanchist Russia and its potential clash with NATO or
the arc of chaos on the periphery of Europe. Strategy
the integration of ends, ways, and means in the pursuit
of policyrequires putting substance behind the first
duty of government: protection of the state. For more
than a decade, the Cameron-led coalition government
and its predecessors took significant risk with Britains
defenses. The 2015 review is an important step to
10
reversing this trend and ensuring a stronger Britain in

the years ahead.
General (ret.) Sir Richard Shirreff, KCB, CBE, is Director
at Strategia Worldwide Ltd. and was NATOs Deputy
Supreme Allied Commander Europe from 2011 to 2014.
The opinions expressed in this essay are those of the
author and do not represent the views of the British
government.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
FRANCE
by Franois Heisbourg
Unlike most European countries, France enjoys the

unusual situation of not being overly constrained in its
defense policy and military spending by an unwilling
electorate or stingy taxpayers. It is not that the
French are particularly bellicose as a people: During
the 2003 Iraq crisis, opinion polls showed levels of
disaffection for the Iraq war were as great as those
in other European countries. Contrary to conventional
wisdom, the French were similarly opposed to military
intervention in Libya, with some 63
percent of the public against it on
the eve of military operations.1
war, eventually forcing the United States to abandon

its attempts to secure the assent of the UN Security
Council. This widely supported opposition stance
demonstrated to the French that they were able to
make their own decisions and, as events proved, to act
wisely. This added to the French Presidents already
strong credit as Commander in Chief.
France took a very different position in August 2013
over the use of chemical weapons by Syrian President
Bashar al-Assads regime in
Damascus. The British House of
Commons refused to authorize
United Kingdom participation in
the US-led airstrikes then being
prepared against Assads forces.
In contrast, French aircraft stood
down only four hours before the
operation was to commence,
when US President Barack Obama
explained to a surprised French
President that he had changed his
mind about enforcing the red line
he had drawn.
No serious
politician . . . has
chosen to make
a career out of
advocating military
spending cuts or
discarding the
nuclear deterrent.
Instead, simply put, the French

tend to trust their government
when it comes to matters of
war and peace. The day after
then-President Nicolas Sarkozy
announced the first airstrike
against Libyas former dictator
Muammar al-Qaddafis forces
near Benghazi, opinion polls
showed public support for the war
jumped to more than two-thirds,
and stayed above or around 50
percent until the end of operations
more than six months later.2 This high level of support
continued despite the widespread initial expectations
of a shorter campaign.
When current President Franois Hollande announced

the wholly unexpected launch of operations against
a sudden jihadi offensive in Mali in January 2013,
public and political support were instantaneous and
massive, notwithstanding the very low levels of trust
and popularity from which President Hollande was
suffering in opinion polls.
In 2003, the trust placed in the executive was
reinforced by the decision not to participate in the
invasion of Iraq. France actively fought against the
1 Les Franais et la lgitimit dune intervention militaire
en Libye[The French and the Legitimacy of a Military
Intervention in Libya], Institut Franais DOpinion Publique
(IFOP), October 3, 2011, http://www.ifop.com/?option=com_
publication&type=poll&id=1427 (in French).
2 Ibid.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
This rallying around the flag also

applies to defense spending and defense policy. No
serious politician, even at the extremes of the multihued
French political spectrum, has chosen to make a career
out of advocating military spending cuts or discarding
the nuclear deterrent, which absorbs around a fourth
of the defense acquisition budget. Even the Greens
keep their otherwise strong antinuclear stance in check
when it comes to nuclear deterrence, and the hard
left puts little energy into attempting to reduce arms
acquisitions in exchange for higher social spending.
Over the years, opinion polls have indicated that the
public believes defense spending should neither be
increased nor diminished. Presidents can easily justify
increases in defense spending, as was the case for
former President Jacques Chirac from 2002 to 2007.
In France, as in other democracies, the Ministry of
Finance fights defense spending on principle; but in
France, the Ministry of Finance is the only opponent
11
French Mirage 2000N. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
of the Ministry of Defensealbeit an exceptionally

aggressive one.
The leeway accorded by favorable public opinion
extends to the question of leadership in European
security. Even if NATO is less popular with the French
public than European defense or purely national control
of policy, the French will defer to the option chosen
by their President. This deference is demonstrated by
public support and bipartisan approval of the US-led
Gulf War of 1991, to which France committed a combat
division; the NATO-run war in Kosovo in 1999, to which
French aircraft executed more combat sorties than
any other European air force; and the French-UK led
campaign under NATO auspices in Libya in 2011.
The bottom line is that what ultimately weighs on
French defense spending and military capabilities will
be the availability of resources and the political and
strategic ambitions of its leaders, rather than public or
party political pressure. Available inputs and desired
outputs are unfortunately diverging.
INPUTS
Despite the ongoing economic crisis in Europe, French
defense spending appears to have held up in nominal
terms from 2012 to 2015 at around 31.4 billion euros per
12
year,3 excluding military pensions. If military pensions

are included, as is done in NATO statistics, along with
a dual-use research and development (R&D) fund
(not included in NATO figures), the total is some
41.2 billion euros, i.e., 1.95 percent of 2014 GDP,4 just
shy of NATOs important 2 percent benchmark. The
qualifying verb (appears) used above refers to the
transient elements in both revenue (e.g., nonrecurring
funding from the sale of state-owned assets, and
supplemental funding to cover part of the costs of
unforeseen military operations) and expenditures (e.g.,
excess costs from unforeseen military operations),
which make it difficult to compute a solid retrospective
budget outturn. Overall, the figures come close to the
mark, in that the Hollande presidency (which began in
2012) has given symbolic importance to being able to
stick to the 31.4 billion euros figure, if needed, through
ad hoc budget adjustments.
In practical terms, this means that defense spending
has diminished in terms of purchasing power, with an
average headline inflation rate of 1 percent during the
3 Les chiffres de la dfense [Defense Figures], editions 2012,
2013, and 2014, French Ministry of Defense (www.defense.gouv.
fr); press reports for latest 2015 estimates (in French).
4 Insee (French National Statistics Office), http://www.insee.fr/fr/
default.asp (in French).
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
period 2012-15. This loss of purchasing power has been

partially recouped through cuts in military manpower.
In summary, slow erosion, rather than severe cuts,
characterizes defense spending under Hollande. This
was also the case under his predecessor Sarkozy,
coming after the budget increases under Chirac in the
2002-07 period. Given Frances defense and security
ambitions, this may not be good enough to maintain
an adequate force structure and posture, particularly
in a much more challenging threat environment.
OUTPUTS
From this limited resource base, France manages to
extract a diversified, broad-spectrum, versatile, and
competent force structure.
Deterrence is ensured through a nuclear dyad of four
second-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile
submarines with sixteen missile tubes and sixty groundbased, carrier-borne Rafale combat
aircraft equipped with supersonic
nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.
The corresponding close to three
hundred nuclear warheads are
brand new, designed for a long life
after the test-ban treaty. Stockpile
stewardship has benefitted from
heavy investmentin cooperation
with the United States National
Ignition Facility, along with jointly
built and operated R&D facilities in
France and the UKsince before
the middle of the twentieth century.
fulfilling NATO commitments than they had been in

previous years, because the ability to participate in a
joint allied major military operation has become the
force dimensioning mission. Previously, from the end
of the Cold War until 2013, it was a Gulf War-1991 type
of contingency, which was the force dimensioning
mission, emphasizing long build-up times, far-flung
logistics, and involving Middle Eastern adversaries.
This was both highly demanding in terms of cost and
manpower, and out of step with more likely NATO
contingencies. Quick response and high-end but
less numerous forces are now emphasized, a choice
validated by the return of war in the former USSR and
the Mediterranean. Smaller contingencies, such as in
Mali in 2013 or the NATO operations in Libya in 2011,
are nested in the dimensioning capability.
Since the end of the Cold War, French forces have been,
on average, employed in five or six distinct military
operations each year. For example, French forces have
participated in six operations thus
far in 2015: Operation Barkhane
against terrorist groups in the
Sahel; Operation Sangaris in the
Central African Republic; Operation
Chammal against ISIS in Iraq and
Syria; UNIFIL in South Lebanon;
and counter-piracy operations
undertaken by the European
Union (Operation Atalanta in the
Indian Ocean) and France alone
(Operation Corymbe in the Gulf
of Guinea). These involved a total
of close to ten thousand military
personnel, in line with past patterns.
In addition to these numbers, some
ten thousand soldiers were also deployed in France
itself (Operation Sentinelle) to secure vulnerable and
sensitive sites against terrorist attacks.
Since the end

of the Cold War,
French forces have
been, on average,
employed in five or
six distinct military
operations each
year.
Since the 2008 white paper

on defense and national security was released,5
intelligence has been recognized as a pivotal strategic
priority, with a corresponding expansion of imagery
(IMINT), electronic (ELINT), and human intelligence
(HUMINT) assets, and their competent integration
at all levels into the decision-making and operational
processes, with an accordingly shortened decisionmaking cycle. This expansion paid handsome
dividends in the high-tempo operations in Mali in 2013,
in a battlespace the size of Texas. The increase in the
size and capability of the Special Forces is also part of
this process.
Intervention forces have shrunk along with the
size of the manpower pool (see below). Somewhat
paradoxically, they are probably better suited to
5 The French White Paper on Defense and National Security,
Prsidence de la Rpublique, 2008, http://www.ambafrance-ca.
org/IMG/pdf/Livre_blanc_Press_kit_english_version.pdf.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
France has military bases and facilities on or near every

continent, including in Djibouti and Abu Dhabi, as well
as on the Kourou spaceport in Guyana. With 215,000
active duty military members (of which 115,000 are
in the Army) and a small operational reserve of some
26,000, Frances forces are clearly being stretched
by these multiple commitments. Moreover, the size
of the force structure has been shrinking rapidly and
substantially, while commitments have remained at
high levels. Indeed, after the terror attacks in France
in January 2015, the government sharply reduced the
pace of force reductions. The problem here is one of
over-commitment, not one of absolute scale. As a ratio
of active servicemen and -women to the population,
France with 3.3 per thousand is doing better than the
13
French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of France in 2014. Photo credit: Herv Dermoune.
UK (1.7) or Germany (2.2), if not the United States (4.4),

which has an additional extensive operational reserve.
Indeed, as is the case for other continental European
countries, the French military is undercapitalized
compared to its US and, to a lesser extent, UK
colleagues. Even if French defense spending were rising,
it would make more sense to recapitalize the military
than to expand the active service manpower, as current
commitments can probably be met if manpower ceases
to shrink and is kept stable.
economic growth and thus broaden its budget base.

Nor is it clear that the political economy of the
eurozone, characterized by suboptimal growth and
the preference for deficit cutting, will allow France
to significantly increase defense spending without
breaking the EU Commissions expenditure benchmark
and risking a crisis with Berlin. With significant
downside riskslike the impact of the refugee crisis
and Brexiteven simply freezing defense spending
may be tough to achieve.
PROSPECTS
On the demand side, the modernization of the nuclear

deterrent will require increased funding, ramping up
progressively from the end of this decade to 2030 and
beyond. Because Frances nuclear spending cycles are
spread out in time, the relative effort will not be nearly
as substantial as in the UK, where the modernization
of the ballistic missile submarines could absorb up
to one-third of all defense acquisition spending in
the mid-2020s. However, with nuclear deterrence
accounting for some 10 percent of military spending
and a fifth of total defense capital spending, this will
make it more difficult to square the circle of means
and ambitions.
The balance between means and ambitions is

becoming more unstable.
This is primarily due to what the French call
the hardening (durcissement) of the strategic
environment: Russias return as a dynamic revisionist
power, the prospect of a Thirty Years War in a postSykes-Picot Middle East, the American rebalance to
Asia, an EU in ever greater disarray, etc. Frances current
defense spending is not compatible with these trends.
Economic pressures wont help. In the absence of
British- or German-style structural reforms, it is
unlikely that France will be able to return to sustained
14
The funding of unforeseen military operations will also

be more difficult to ensure. From 2012 to 2015, budget
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Soldier in the French Foreign Legion. Photo credit: Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
reserves for such contingencies covered less than

half of the actual costaround a billion euros a year.
The difference in cost was covered in supplemental
budgets by windfall revenues, largely generated by the
constant decrease in the interest
rate of new treasury bills issued on
the bond market, which has treated
France as a quasi-doppelgnger
of virtuous Germany. But with tenyear government bonds dropping
to close to a zero percent interest
rate, the windfall effect has
reached an end. If anything, it may
go into reverse as the US Federal
Reserve System eventually raises
its own rates.
could backfire on his successor(s) as the situation

deteriorates further. French officials were stunned by
the speed with which the United Kingdom has pared
down its global and regional strategic role from August
2013 onwards, after the House of
Commons refused to authorize
the use of force against Assads
regime in Syria for having used
chemical weapons. The fact that
this sequence played out a full
decade after the invasion of Iraq
shows that political U-turns can
occur long after the initial events.
It would make
sense for the
EU, and notably
Germany, its
most important
economic actor, to
remove defense
spending from
ongoing EU deficitcutting measures.
Finally, there is limited risk that

the public will lose its trust in the
executive on defense policy. There
is currently no hard evidence of
this, but there is grumbling about
the effect on public opinion from
the rise of jihadism in Libya after the overthrow of
Qaddafi and the mounting tide of illegal immigration
to Italy and beyond. With former President Sarkozy
claiming credit for the Libya campaign, this affiliation
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
There are essentially two mutually

reinforcing
sets
of
policies
whereby France may be able to
continue to strategically punch
at a level commensurate with its
standing as a permanent member
of the UN Security Council. The
first is a return to economic
growth. It was only in the second
half of 2015 that Frances GDP, along with that of the
eurozone in the aggregate, recovered to the pre-crisis
level of late 2007after eight years of stagnation.
Substantial structural reforms in the short and medium
15
French President Franois Hollande. Photo credit: United Nations.
terms are the prerequisites for sustainable growth. The

corresponding decisions depend largely on French
domestic choices.
agreed with France on this issue. Clearly, the threat

perceptions in Berlin and Brussels are still far removed
from those prevailing in Paris and Washington, DC.
The second strand heavily depends on European,

rather than national, decisions. Given the hardening
of the security environment, it would make sense
for the EU, and notably Germany, its most important
economic actor, to remove defense spending from
ongoing EU deficit-cutting measures. France has made
suggestions to that effect. Unfortunately, for the timebeing, neither the EU as a whole nor Germany has
Dr. Franois Heisbourg is Special Advisor at the

Fondation pour la Recherche Stratgique and was a
member of the commission that produced the French
governments 2008 Defense and National Security White
Paper. The opinions expressed in this essay are those of
the author and do not represent the views of the French
government.
16
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
GERMANY
by Patrick Keller
German defense spending does not even begin to

match the requirements of the German armed forces,
which have been chronically underfunded since 1990,
according to Inspector General of the German Army
Bruno Kasdorf.1 Although it is rare for a German officer
to publicly voice such concerns, Gen. Kasdorf had little
reason to worry about the political
leaderships reactionand not just
because he gave the interview two
months before his retirement. In
fact, defense experts from all major
parties in parliament, from the
Christian Democrats to the Greens,
agree with his assessment.2 The
Bundeswehr, despite its worldclass officer corps and admirable
performance in recent missions,
such as the International Security
Assistance Force mission in
Afghanistan, lacks the resources
needed to sustain current levels
of military ambition. And yet, a
substantial change in direction
seems impossible to achieve as
the Chancellery and Treasurynot
to mention the public at large
set different financial priorities for
the country. In determining how to
strengthen German defense under these conditions,
three issues need to be addressed.
an even greater engagement in international security

affairs.
Looking at the German defense budget, the twentyfive years since reunification tell a story of steady
decline.3 From 1991 to 1997, defense spending
decreased continuously, from
about 28 billion euros to 23 billion
euros (or from approximately 2
to 1.6 percent of GDP). However,
the Kosovo War from 1998 to
1999 brought an end to the
peace dividend era, and defense
spending has been on a slow but
steady rise since 2001 (with only
minor cuts in 2003 and 2010). The
financial crisis, which started in
2008, did not have a discernible
effect on this trend. Yet, at the
same time, the modest increases
have not even offset inflation.
In real terms, defense spending
has been decreasing. Moreover,
most of the additional money has
gone to personnel costs, not to
procurement or R&D. And with the
growth of the German economy,
defense spending has declined to
an average of about 1.25 percent
of GDP. In 2014, Germany had a defense budget of 32
billion euros, amounting to just 1.14 percent of GDP.4
German defense
spending does
not even begin
to match the
requirements of
the German armed
forces, which have
been chronically
underfunded since
1990, according to
Inspector General
of the Army
Bruno Kasdorf.
1. There is a contradiction at the heart of German

defense policy. On the one hand, defense has
been ignored for decades, not just in terms of
underfinancing the Bundeswehr, but also politically,
by neither defining nor explaining the purpose of the
German armed forces to the German public. On the
other hand, German leaders insist that Germany has
always carried its share of responsibilities and call for
1 Christoph Hickmann, Der Investitionsbedarf ist Riesig,
Sddeutsche Zeitung, May 21, 2015. http://www.sueddeutsche.de/
politik/bundeswehr-der-investitionsbedarf-ist-riesig-1.2488334
(in German).
2 The one exception is the socialist party Die Linke, which seeks to
disband the German armed forces and advocates the dissolution
of NATO.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
As a consequence, shortages and readiness problems

have become apparent with increasing frequency.
International media outlets revel in embarrassing
stories about German tanks using broomsticks instead
of guns in NATO exercises or the defense minister
arriving in Erbil, Iraq, to oversee the historic handover
of weapons to the Peshmerga in the fight against
ISISonly to learn that the weapons were stuck in
Germany and the aircraft carrying the German trainers
3 For a more fully developed picture of German defense spending
see Patrick Keller, German Hard Power: Is There a There There?
AEI National Security Outlook, no. 4, October 2013.
4 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 2015.
17
German Eurofighters. Photo credit: Bundeswehr.
were in such a state of disrepair that they had to make

a forced landing in Bulgaria.5
A Bundeswehr report to parliament in September 2014
showed that these were not random incidents, but the
results of deep structural problems with Germanys
defense establishment stemming from a lack of
funding.6 According to the report, the majority of
German combat systems cannot be used immediately
for missions, exercises, or training. Of Germanys
thirty-one Tiger helicopters, for instance, only ten are
combat-ready and deployable. Similarly, only thirty5 See, for example, reports in Der Spiegel and the Independent:
Gordon Repinski, Verteidigungsministerin bei den Peschmerga:
Von der Leyens Pannenmission im Irak Der Spiegel, September
25, 2014, http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ursula-von-derleyen-im-irak-pr-flop-fuer-die-verteidgungsministerin-a-993729.
html (in German); Lizzie Dearden, German Army Paints
Broomsticks Black to Resemble Machine Guns in NATO
Exercises, Independent, February 18, 2015, http://www.
independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/german-army-paintsbroomsticks-black-to-resemble-machine-guns-in-natoexercises-10054468.html.
6 The report is classified but was leaked to various news sources;
the numbers they cite from the report sometimes differ, but
the general thrust of the argument is the same as this overview
in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung demonstrates: Die Lange
Mngelliste der Bundeswehr, September 24, 2014, http://www.
faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/materialprobleme-die-langemaengelliste-der-bundeswehr-13172228.html (in German).
18
eight of the eighty-nine Tornado fighter jets, 280 of

the 406 Marder armored infantry vehicles, twenty-four
of the fifty-seven Transall transport planes, and three
of the twenty-one Sea King helicopters are combatready and deployable. Although there is some debate
about whether the criteria for deployability used in
the report are too strict, it is widely agreed that the
Bundeswehrs capabilities have been stretched to the
limits and are in need of modernization.
It is no accident that the state of the armed forces
received so much attention in 2014. It was also the
year when the war in Ukraine and the rise of ISIS in
Syria and Iraq challenged German security policy. Even
more important for the German domestic debate, the
year began with major policy speeches by President
Joachim Gauck, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, and Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen
at the Munich Security Conference. All three called
for more German leadership in international security
affairs. Gauck, a well-respected figure in a largely
ceremonial office, did so most emphatically, saying
that in international crisis management, Germany
should make a more substantial contribution, and it
should make it earlier and more decisively.7
7 Federal President Joachim Gauck, Germanys Role in the
World: Reflections on Responsibility, Norms, and Alliances
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
German Tiger Helicopter. Photo credit: Bundeswehr.
President Gauck and the ministers echoed the

consensus of the strategic community in Berlin.8
After six years of economic crises in the eurozone,
Germany gained significant relative power, especially
in comparison to the states traditionally leading
strategic thinking on security matters in the EU:
France and Great Britain. German prosperity, political
stability, population size, and geostrategic location
should make it the preeminent leader in Europe
and not just on issues of EU integration and fiscal
and monetary policy but also on strategic issues of
regional and global security. This trend was reinforced
by the German trading states dependency on a liberal
international system and the strategic retreat of the
United States under President Barack Obama. It was
time for Germany to step up to new responsibilities
and complete the transformation from a consumer to
a provider of international stability.
How this could be done with the armed forces at hand

was never sufficiently discussed. In fact, public debate
hardly went beyond the familiar reflexes warning
against a militarization of German foreign policy.
The tension between shrinking capabilities and rising
ambitions is obvious and remains unresolved.
speech delivered at the Munich Security Conference, January 31,

2014, https://www.securityconference.de/en/activities/munichsecurity-conference/msc-2014/speeches/.
8 See, for instance, the 2013 report by the German Marshall Fund
of the United States and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik,
bringing together more than fifty leading experts on German
security policy: New Power New Responsibility, http://www.
swp-berlin.org/en/projects/new-power-new-responsibility/theproject.html.
Moreover, von der Leyen achieved further (projected)

increases in defense spending, from just under 33 billion
euros in 2015 to just over 35 billion euros in 2019.9 As
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
2. In response to this dilemma, Defense Minister von

der Leyen is pushing for a stronger Bundeswehr that
is capable of fulfilling its new and ambitious tasks. In
doing so, von der Leyen continues the far-reaching
reform process (re-orientation) of the Bundeswehr,
which began under her predecessors Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg and Thomas de Maizire. Centerpieces of the
reform include downsizing the armed forces to 185,000
soldiers (from almost 500,000 in 1990), suspending
conscription (accomplished in 2011 and de facto ending
it), streamlining defense procurement processes, and
creating a more agile and deployable force.
9 Verteidigungsetat wchst um 1,2 Milliarden Euro, Frankfurter

Allgemeine Zeitung, March 17, 2015, http://www.faz.net/aktuell/
politik/bundeswehr-etat-waechst-schon-2016-um-1-2-milliardeneuro-13488303.html.
19
in previous years, however, this incrementalism will

not suffice. Most of the additional money will be eaten
up by personnel costs, higher rent, and inflation. The
fundamental problem of underfunding will persist only
as majorities in parliament and the public set different
prioritiesevidenced in the budget of the Ministry of
Labor and Welfare that is four times the size of the
defense budget. And as long as defense has to return
more than a billion euros of unused money at the end
of a fiscal year, due to mistakes in planning and delays
in delivery, it will remain very difficult for proponents of
increased defense budgets to make their case.10
Hence, it is much more realisticand smarterto focus

on how best to spend money on defense rather than
on how much. There are two ways to think about this.
First, Germany could make military contributions to
international stability that are not financed through
the defense budget. It could, for instance, enhance
and enable the armed forces of the Baltic republics,
especially with maritime and reconnaissance
capabilities. Such a contribution could be reported to
NATO under the framework of the Readiness Action
Plan (RAP), but it could be financed through the
budget of, say, the foreign office.
3. More defense funding is

necessary to maintain even current
levels of readiness and effectiveness
of the Bundeswehr. And yet, what
if further budget increases do
not happen? Here are three ideas
on how to politically manage the
deficit in a way that strengthens
German, and ultimately European
and transatlantic, defense.11
Second, Germany could shift

priorities within the existing
defense budget. Most notably, only
12.8 percent of the 2015 defense
budget is allotted for procurement
of military capabilities (down from
14.2 percent in 2014), and there is
a miniscule 2.4 percent allotted for
research and development (down
from 2.9 percent in 2014).13 German
leaders must reverse this trend;
procurement and R&D combined
should amount to at least 20
percent of defense spending in
order to redress the problems in
readiness and modernization, as
well as to fulfill Germanys R&D
funding commitment made at
the 2014 NATO summit in Wales.
Minister von der Leyen took
first steps in the right direction,
including choosing an influential
Deputy Minister, Katrin Suder,
who oversees the revision of the
procurement process and who
brokered the recent agreement
between the ministry and the
German defense industry outlining
rules for future defense industry
cooperation.14 There remains, however, a long way to go.
Germany could
make military
contributions
to international
stability that are
not financed
through the
defense budget. It
could, for instance,
enhance and
enable the armed
forces of the
Baltic republics,
especially with
maritime and
reconnaissance
capabilities.
a) Do not get tunnel vision on

NATOs 2 percent budget-increase
requirements. NATO members
agreed in 2014 to increase their
defense budgets to 2 percent of
GDP within ten years if economic
development allows. The qualifiers
give away the insincerity of the
statement. As long as Germany
does not suffer a major recession,
this goal will not be met.12 By
todays standards, 2 percent of
GDP would mean an additional
20 billion euros for defense. The
German public would not accept
such an increase. Also, a German
defense budget of more than 55
billion euros would overshadow
those of all other European nations, including France
and Great Britain, thus perhaps rekindling old fears
and problematic political dynamics from a bygone era
in Europe.
10 Between 2009 and 2013, the Ministry of Defense did not spend
the 3 billion euros that were earmarked for procurement, as
reported here: Bundeswehr rief Milliarden nicht ab, Rheinische
Post, October 13, 2014, http://www.rp-online.de/politik/
deutschland/bundeswehr-rief-milliarden-nicht-ab-aid-1.4590799.
11 For a more elaborate argument see Patrick Keller, Strategic
Deliberations about the Future of German Security Policy,
Facts & Findings, no. 167, April 2015, http://www.kas.de/wf/
en/33.41124/.
12 This does not mean that the goal is useless, however. It remains
an important argument in the annual debate over defense
expenditures.
20
b) Foster greater synergy with allies and partners in

Europe. Germany cannot pool & share its way out
of the crisis of an underfunded Bundeswehrin the
end, it needs to buy things. And the armed forces of
twenty-six sovereign European states taken together
13 The 2014 and 2015 defense budgets are available on the
Ministrys website: http://www.bmvg.de/portal/a/bmvg/!ut/p/c4/
NYy7DsIwEAT_yGcXIIWOKEJQ0KRJQufEljnJj-hyNg0fj12wq51mp
IUX1EZd0GnGFLWHGZYNL-tHrKE4ETDiwZYwB1EssUWDLkd3vH
Wu8wxTezBWbClabmQbGSsdaU4k9kTsm8lE1Qg0sEg19FLJf9S3
m-b77dmdzsOjH2EP4foDBvQCwQ!!/.
14 The agreement of June 29, 2015, is available on the Ministrys
website: http://goo.gl/hohtFe.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
German Patriot missile system. Photo credit: Bundeswehr.
will always be less efficient in terms of value for money

than the unified US military. Still, Germany and its
European neighbors can take steps to create military
clusters and islands of cooperation
between
states.
Germanys
Framework Nation concept and
NATOs RAP provide examples
of how such ideas strengthen
the Alliance. Key future projects
could include a joint development
and procurement program for
the next generation fighter jet
between Germany, France, and
the UK or joint support ships with
Poland and France.15 In order to
avoid duplication of efforts and in
recognition of the indispensable
role the United States plays as
Europes pacifier, NATO should
always be the primary framework within which such
efforts are undertaken. But where NATO does not
want to provide such a framework, there the EU can
be put to good usefor instance by creating a unified
EU medical command.
Such increased cooperation must be undertaken

in tandem with efforts to consolidate the European
defense industry. The July 2015 deal between military
land defense systems producers
Nexter in France and KrausMaffei Wegmann in Germany is
a good first step, especially after
the lamentable German veto
against the merger of aerospace
companies BAE Systems of Britain
and European Aeronautic Defense
and Space (EADS) in 2012.
Germany cannot
pool & share
its way out of
the crisis of an
underfunded
Bundeswehrin
the end, it needs to
buy things.
15 Maik Zarandi, European Islands Solutions as a Basis for

Strengthening European Defense Capabilities? Facts & Findings,
no. 130, October 2013, http://www.kas.de/wf/en/33.35552/.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
c) Reinforce the public debate

about
German
interests
in
international security affairs. The
root cause for Germanys ailing
defense policy and the countrys
strategic thinking is the German
publics contentment with the status quoand the
misconception that this status quo is a given, and not
something that depends on the resolve of the West to
maintain a stable and liberal international order. This,
in conjunction with the strong anti-militaristic streak
Germany developed after four decades without full
sovereignty and responsibility for its survival, means
21
German Leopard 2 A5 tanks. Photo credit: Bundeswehr.
the country lacks an impetus to undertake the serious

defense investments and reforms required for todays
threats.
Therefore, political leaders and commentators
need to persuade and educate the public on the
importance of a stronger defense posture. For
instance, parliament should hold regular sessions
about national security, preferably accompanied by
an annual strategy paper from the Chancellery. The
current process of developing a new white paper on
defense is commendable for being more inclusive and
deliberative than previous efforts, but it is a meager
substitute for a full-fledged national strategy. Germany
22
also needs to broaden its strategic community, to

encourage more active engagement from private
think tanks on international affairs, and to counter the
dearth of university departments on strategic studies.
If Germany can raise the level of debate, from both
experts and the public, on security issues of strategic
concern, it will become a more reliable and effective
NATO ally, contributing its fair share to strengthened
transatlantic security.
Dr. Patrick Keller is the Coordinator for Foreign and
Security Policy at the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. The
opinions expressed in this essay are to be attributed to
the author alone.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
POLAND
by Tomasz Szatkowski
In the coming years, Polands strategic defense policy

outlook will be determined by the threat posed by
Russias aggressive attitude in its near neighborhood.
Although the Mediterranean refugee crisis has for the
first time created direct implications for Polish security
that stem from outside the traditional geopolitical EastWest Axis on the Northern European Plain, this out-ofarea security challenge will remain a secondary mission
for the Polish Armed Forces. Therefore, even if Warsaw
steps up its involvement in the anti-Daesh campaign, the
main purpose of such an endeavor
would be to strengthen solidarity
between allies, with expectation of
reciprocity with regard to NATOs
Eastern Flank.
time goes on, there will be an increasing incentive to

use force as long as it is still available.
Russia seeks conditions that will weaken the
transatlantic link wherever it is possible, and damage
the political cohesion of Europe. If these conditions
occur, Russia will be ready to quickly escalate to
using traditional military means if its preferred
unconventional methods fail. Russias unconventional
tactics could also degrade to conventional warfare
if Moscows frequent flexing of
its military muscle slips out of
control and leads to an accident
or confrontation. In terms of
capabilities, according to some
less optimistic estimates, after
more than a dozen years of
increasing defense spending and
the ambitious and far-reaching
defense reforms initiated by
former Defense Minister Anatoly
Serdiukov, Russia has enough
active troops (without mobilizing
its reserves) to mount three
simultaneous operations: offensive
action against the Baltic states, military engagement
in Poland, and the continual bogging down of Kyivs
forces in eastern Ukraine. Even more worrying, Russia
has maintained a tactical nuclear arsenal that is far
bigger than the capabilities of NATOs European
members. Russia has also developed both the
warheads and delivery systems that are more usable
on the modern battlefield, so that the threat of using
them is much more credible. Regardless of whether
some analysts are right that Russias escalate to
de-escalate concept is signaled purely as part of a
psychological warfare, the impact of this capability
on the overall strategic balance, and the change in
Moscows nuclear doctrine, should not be left without
remedies.1
Russia has
enough active
troops (without
mobilizing its
reserves) to mount
three simultaneous
operations.
Regardless of how experts define

Russias
intentions
regarding
its geopolitical objectives or
operational plans, two themes
should be regarded as overarching
factors. The first is the internal
dynamic in Russiathis is the
extent to which fueling the
hostile attitude toward the West
helps consolidate President Vladimir Putins political
support base and diverts attention away from
domestic economic, social, and political problems.
The second, which directly relates to the first, is the
desire to drive wedges within the transatlantic security
architecture and create conditions for the full return
of the Concert of Europe. Putin will take advantage
of Russias military, as well as other statecraft tools at
his disposal, to make this strategy successful. These
include using nonmilitary means, such as information
and psychological operations, intimidation through the
threat of force, and the use of unconventional force
to achieve political objectives. Russia has displayed
a very holistic approach and is willing to use any or
all of these methods to increase its influence across
NATOs eastern flank. What is particularly worrying is
Moscows perception that the time it has to achieve
these goals is limited because Russias economic
troubles diminish the resources necessary for any
energetic external action in the future. Therefore, as
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
1 Robert Work, Statement before the House Committee on

Armed Services, June 25, 2015, p. 4. http://docs.house.gov/
meetings/AS/AS00/20150625/103669/HHRG-114-AS00-WstateWorkR-20150625.pdf.
23
Members of Polands Special Forces training in Fort Bragg. Photo credit: US Army.
Overall, the situation on NATOs eastern flank has posed

the greatest challenge to Poland since the country
regained its full independence in 1989. Therefore,
Polands political-military culture needs to put forth a
great degree of effort and ingenuity to adapt to this
new threat environment. In order to optimally meet
this challenge, Poland will need to radically eradicate
some still-existent residues of the Warsaw Pact satellite
culture within its military bureaucracy. Otherwise,
such traits like hierarchical rigidity, repetitiveness, and
aversion to critical thinking will preclude any effective
response.
To begin with, the increased security threat from the
east calls for a whole set of political and administrative
reforms, including of the national security management
system. The government must be able to coordinate a
broad and varied set of statecraft and military tools,
across the conflict escalation continuum. Three subsets
of this system need to be put in place from scratch.
First is the need for all source intelligence analysis,
together with participatory and adversarial simulations/
wargames, to be part of the whole government national
security steering process. Second, Warsaws defense
procurement policy needs to be better coordinated
with its defense industrial strategy. Polands economy
24
could benefit from a spillover from a relatively robust

Ministry of National Defense procurement budget that,
over the next eight years, will account for roughly $4
billion in procurement each year. Nonetheless, the
Polish government and the defense industry should
clearly designate which areas (except for key platforms
that require international technology) should be the
main areas of specialization for the countrys defense
industrial base; they should also identify who could
be its most beneficial partners. Third, the Ministry of
National Defense should reform its defense resources
management system. So far, the process is unrefined; for
example, the capability acquisition programs appear to
be a loose collection of the agendas of their respective
services. The Ministry of National Defense should have a
unit in the organization capable of providing analytical
advice similar to the work done by the Pentagons
Office of Net Assessment, as well as its Cost Analysis
Program Evaluation Office. In addition, the planning and
acquisition processes should be geared more toward
whole capability in the full-cycle approach.
The threat itself, as depicted earlier, requires a full
spectrum deterrence response from Poland and its
allies. Warsaw should be seeking asymmetric measures,
geared at addressing an enemys vulnerabilities. The
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
sub-conventional scenarioin the case of Poland,

a country that is nearly ethnically and culturally
homogenouswill not be very credible in its subversive
form. Nonetheless, Poland might need to respond to a
little green men type of threat to one of its neighboring
NATO allies. Taking that mission into account, the Armed
Forces of the Republic of Poland should not focus on
gendarmerie capabilities, but rather on unconventional
Special Operation Forces capabilities and their interface
with nonmilitary means. These capabilities will deter the
enemy by creating the potential for unrest in the enemys
own backyard. That means that the Polish military may
need to rethink the role of its crown jewelsthe Special
Operation Forceswhich constitute a separate branch of
the Armed Forces. Instead of focusing on door kickingtype units, Polands special forces should embrace an
effects-based approach, and part of its military training
and assistance capabilities should focus on psychological
operations (PSYOPs) and civil affairs capabilities.
The conventional conflict scenario
emphasizes the return of old,
quantitative notions such as the
number of troops and platforms,
sheer firepower, and survivability
of forces, to complement quality
that was underscored over recent
years, and has been defined as
effects based approach, situational
awareness, precise attack, and
mobility. Such a scenario would
be predominantly land-based and
would include a highly contested
cyber, radio-electronic, air, and
naval domain.
Warsaw should also rethink its air and missile defense

conceptwhether it would not be more optimal to
invest in shooting the archer instead of shooting
the arrow. The missile-to-interceptor cost relation
is highly disadvantageous for the latter. Moreover,
the shooting the arrow option does not provide an
adequate deterrence effect, as it is the aggressor who
chooses the degree to which he exposes himself. A
partial remedy to this problem might be a combination
of radio-electronic warfare and long-range rocket
artillery battle networks, perhaps
supplemented in the future by
inventive solutions like kamikaze
drones.
The Polish
military should
create a robust,
cost-effective
reconnaissance
strike force based
on the Russian and
Chinese models.
In such an environment, the Polish Navy should give up

blue water ambitions, such as investing excessively
into surface combatants. Instead, the Navy should focus
on missions like mine warfare, intelligence surveillance,
and reconnaissance. Increasingly, these missions will
be performed by unmanned platforms and coastal
defense. Similarly, it could be argued, to what extent the
Polish Air Force would be able independently to impact
the situation in the battlespace with traditional aircraft.
In general, the Polish military should not overinvest in
expensive and vulnerable platforms that require equally
vulnerable infrastructure. Therefore, except for armored
units intended for counterattacks, the Polish military
should create a robust, cost-effective reconnaissance
strike force based on the Russian and Chinese models
numerous networked, precision guided, multiple
launch rockets systems (MLRS) with target acquisition
provided by inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs). That capability should be coupled with local
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
defense forces that are equipped with guided rockets,

artillery, mortars, and missiles (GRAMMs); man-portable
air-defense systems (MANPADS); and precise anti-tank
guided missiles (ATGMs). Naturally, these local troops
could not fight without secure digital communications
and night vision gear. The need to restore that sort of
cost-effective, space-saturating formation, either the
type that exists in militias or in the National Guard, is
one of the most widely discussed topics in Poland.
The last dimension of the threat

the tactical nuclear dimension
should be addressed within the
NATO Nuclear Deterrence Posture
by modernizing NATOs tactical
nuclear capabilities. Extended
deterrence effective on a substrategic level requires major allies
to accept some risk by exposing
their vulnerable capabilities on the
eastern flank. Such steps ensure
NATO can respond automatically to an aggressors
attack against a nonnuclear ally. This should entail
the deployment of some US strategic assetsthat
would be critical to the national security of the United
Statesto the heart of Poland. For instance, these
strategic assets may take the form of early warning
elements of the US nuclear deterrent or elements
critical to the logistical sustainment of US military
forces. Effective NATO deterrence will still require
some form of forward presence of conventional troops
of old NATO Allies in Poland, in order to mitigate
the anti-power projection impact of the Russian A2/
AD in Kaliningrad and the increased readiness of
Russian troops that pose the threat of closing all lines
of communication to the Baltic States.
Without measures to address the new nuclear threat
environment in Europe, Poland is left with three
options. The first is to accept the risk of falling prey
to the escalate to de-escalate doctrine. The second
25
Polish tank participating in NATOs NOBLE JUMP exercise, June 18, 2015. Photo credit: SHAPE NATO.
is to offer political concessions to Moscow and drift

towards a Finlandized status, in order to decrease
the likelihood of a military attack by Russia. The third
is to create a nonnuclear deterrent for Poland (similar
in logic to the French and British nuclear deterrents)
that would create an alternative decision dynamic for
adversaries contemplating escalation. This deterrence
option should be studied more rigorously because
it cuts across multiple domains. This nonnuclear
deterrence could consist of new capabilities, such as
longer and more powerful warheads on cruise missiles;
new types of weaponry (e.g., microwave technology);
and offensive cyber capabilities and subversive
oriented Special Operations Forces. Such deterrence
may also provide strategic effects for nonnuclear
nations. Naturally, this option is feasible only if a nation
is not looking to create the threat of mutually assured
destruction, but it may nevertheless be enough to throw
the aggressor off balance or at least to significantly
degrade the aggressors capabilities vis--vis the
capabilities of the United States. This option would
still require complete national autonomy over these
assets, enhancing national-level command and control
and clearly communicating to other powers that it is
an appropriate defense-oriented strategy, most likely
centered around the notion of the French nonuse
26
doctrine. If introduced in a thoughtful manner, this

approach should not destabilize the strategic balance,
and NATO may instead use it as the Clausewitzian
concept of friction to bolster the credibility of the
extended deterrence.
In conclusion, the modernization of the Polish Armed
Forces, along the concept of full-spectrum deterrence,
should focus on three first-magnitude priorities. The
first is to develop more-integrated, less-kinetic Special
Operation Forces capabilities. The second is to employ
local defense forces and robust reconnaissance-strike
units (equipped with rockets, artillery, and UAVs)
to funnel potential aggressors into geographic kill
zones. The third is to develop autonomous longrange cruise missiles or non-kinetic complementary
deterrence assets. Together, these priorities will best
strengthen Polands defense capabilities and deter
potential aggressors.
Tomasz Szatkowski is Undersecretary of State in Polands
Ministry of National Defense. Previously, he was President
of the National Center for Strategic Studies in Warsaw
and wrote this chapter before he joined the Polish
government. The views and opinions expressed in this
report are those of the author and do not reflect the
official policy or position of the Polish government.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
ITALY
by Giampaolo Di Paola
Italys defense budget and priorities have been

profoundly affected by the ongoing economic
crisis across Europe, and continued slow growth
within Italy. Seven years of economic recession,
high unemployment, deteriorating living conditions
and social safety nets, and tight fiscal policies have
inevitably driven cuts in defense spending. This is true
across Europe, but it is especially pronounced across
southern Europe and, in particular, in Italy. Therefore,
Italys ability to live up to the commitments on defense
spending levels and military capabilities made at the
2014 NATO summit in Wales must
be understood within this broader
context. In other words, from
Romes vantage point, the Wales
commitments should be viewed as
aspirational, and something that
can be achieved once the nation
has been set upon a long-term and
sustainable path toward economic
recovery and growth.
believe that this is partially due to the very clear

focus on NATOs East and the challenge of a newly
aggressive Russia. Some in Rome even worry that
NATO is heading toward a new Cold War with Russia.
This would be unfortunate, since it would sweep away
the prospects of a more open relationship with Russia
and of an inclusive European security order that has
been under development for more than a decade.
Make no mistake; Rome recognizes that Russias
current behavior is unacceptable, and that Moscow
bears real responsibility for the current situation in
Ukraine. However, from a longerterm perspective, remilitarizing
the relationship with Russia would
be dangerous, and it would be
far from the optimal solution for
NATO and the broader European
security order.
Italys current
military structure is
unsustainable, and
is burdened with
legacy processes
and approaches.
Furthermore, there is a growing

sense in Italy that NATOs target
of 2 percent GDP for defense spending among the
members is a dull instrument for driving relevant
defense investment. Leaders in Italy increasingly
question the relevance of this target for meeting
current security challenges, as well as future crisis
scenarios. There is also a growing sense that how
states spend the funding is more directly relevant
than the amount they spend, in terms of maximizing
capabilities and effects. In short, the prospect for
increased Italian defense spending may be limited,
even if the economic headroom for it is there.
Many political leaders in Italy would also like to
move toward a more comprehensive approach to
security, in which military power is only one of many
tools available to policymakers. There is also an
understandable drive to give broader attention to the
many security challenges around the Mediterraneans
southern rim, as there is real concern that the
challenges in the south are not widely understood
within the Alliance and among its allies. Many in Rome
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Based on this context, the Italian

defense debate and Italys planning
for the future are primarily
focused on organizational reforms
and
military
transformation,
both nationally and internationally. There is also a
real interest in achieving deeper integration around
defense policies across Europe, as well as to move
forward on EU-NATO collaboration, in order to not
only spend scarce defense resources more wisely, but
also achieve real savings. This approach is made clear
in the recently released White Paper on International
Security and Defense, written by Italys Ministry
of Defense and approved by the Supreme Defense
Council, which is chaired by the President of the
Republic and includes the Prime Minister and the Chief
of Defense.1 The white paper clearly states that, given
present budget constraints, Italys current military
structure is unsustainable, and is burdened with legacy
processes and approaches.
The white paper calls for the following changes in
Italian defense policy: reducing the overall strength
of the Italian military to approximately 150,000
1 Ministry of Defense of Italy, White Paper for International
Security and Defense, April 21, 2015, http://www.difesa.it/Primo_
Piano/Documents/2015/07_Luglio/White%20book.pdf.
27
Italian aircraft carrier Cavour, June 10, 2010. Photo credit: Armando Mancini.
troops; accelerating the streamlining of command

and logistics structures; further enhancing a joint
organizational approach and mindset; and creating a
framework of interoperability, shared capabilities, and
coordinated defense planning, in concert with NATO
allies and other European nations. The white paper
reaffirms Italys commitment to collective defense
and deterrence with European and NATO allies,
but it especially calls for the Italian military to take
the lead and focus on challenges, risks, and threats
stemming from the southern Mediterranean rim. This
aligns closely with Italys ambition and ability to play
a leading role in this region.
At the same time, the white paper highlights the two
key problems that challenge the Italian military today.
A limited and unbalanced budget, with more than 70
percent dedicated to personnel costs, leaves only 10
percent of the budget for operations and maintenance,
and less than 20 percent for defense investment. The
low percentage of defense investment is somewhat
offset by resources made available on an ad hoc
basis by the Ministry of Industry to support the Italian
defense industrial base. For example, the current
modernization of patrol and support ships for the
Italian navya ten-year, 5.6 billion-euro programis
28
funded outside the defense budget in this manner.

The real dramatic shortfall is in the operations and
maintenance account (which is at least 10-15 percent
below reasonable levels), which is contributing to
seriously undermining the readiness and operational
effectiveness of the Italian military.
In response to these issues, the white paper outlines
a start to rebalancing the Italian armed forces. Italy
can reduce personnel costs by downsizing the force to
150,000, and by changing the ratio between permanent
service contracts and short-term enlistments and
commissions (currently, the ratio is 70/30). Since
long-term personnel are considerably more expensive
than short-term equivalents, changing this ratio would
result in significant cost reductions, and help lower
the average age of Italian service members, which is
currently forty-four years. The white paper also calls
for providing long-term stability and predictability
for the availability of investment resources through
a six-year program law (akin to the French loi de
programmation). If adopted, this element would be
a sign of real innovation stemming from the white
paper, and would transform Italian defense investment
planning and implementation.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Italian soldiers participating in multinational Best Squad Competition. Photo credit: US Army.
The white paper does not provide a forecast of Italian

defense-spending levels. It does, however, call for
rationalization, more-focused spending priorities,
and increased cooperation with European and other
NATO allies in research and development, as well
as defense investment projects,
while leveraging the capabilities
of the Italian defense industrial
base. The white paper emphasizes
the need for Italy to retain its
military technological edge, in
concert with allies. This means
that, in a resource-constrained
environment, capabilities must
be coordinated and integrated
with other European nations, in
terms of planning, development,
and employment. However, Italy
will continue to focus specifically
on the set of capabilities most
relevant for the security challenges
around
the
Mediterraneans
southern rim. Furthermore, Italy will need to prioritize
quality over quantity in terms of platforms and military
systems, meaning that there will likely be a future
loss of density in available capabilities. However, this
density loss will likely be offset, to some degree, by an

increase in sophistication and quality.
In sum, Italy is driving toward a mobile, technologyhedging, fully integrated, network-enabled, and
connected joint force that is
closely integrated with Italys
allies, and which has the ability to
deploy in the European theater
and in regions south of Europe.
Special attention will be paid to
command and control, intelligence
and cyber capabilities, air and
space
intelligence/surveillance/
reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities,
and precision targeting (drones
will be especially important here).
Naval modernization will be the
key to Italys maritime strategy for
the broader Mediterranean, while
the Italian ground force will need
networked land formations with
long-range firepower.
Italy will continue

to focus specifically
on the set of
capabilities most
relevant for the
security challenges
around the
Mediterraneans
southern rim.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
The white paper also states that defense-capacity

building and military-cooperation mechanisms are
29
Italian Tornado fighter jet undergoing air to air refueling. Photo credit: Miks Uzan/NATO.
needed to improveand, sometimes, build from

scratchthe security functions of governments across
the broader Mediterranean region. In this regard, the
training capabilities of the Carabinieri (Italian army
units with law enforcement responsibilities) are of
special importance.
approaches that are more comprehensive and less

military in nature. This will require Italy to continue to
work with its allies, along with its regional friends and
partners, in a fashion that very much aligns with the
principle of cooperative security expressed in NATOs
Strategic Concept.2
In conclusion, the white paper sets out a clear

way forward for Italian defense: a smaller, but still
significant, military that can provide a high-quality joint
force that is sustainable at the given level of resources.
It will be fully coordinated and interoperable with
Italys allies and partners, with an operational focus
on Europe and the region to the south of Europe. This
orientation does not stem from fiscal realities alone;
it also comes from a real geopolitical assessment of
current and future security challenges, which include
Admiral (ret.) Giampaolo Di Paola is a professor at Libera

Universit Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli,
and was Defense Minister of Italy from 2011 to 2013. The
opinions expressed in this essay are those of the author
and do not represent the views of the Italian government.
30
2 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATOs Strategic Concept

for the Defense and Security of the Members of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization, November 19, 2010, http://www.
nato.int/strategic-concept/pdf/Strat_Concept_web_en.pdf.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
NORWAY
by Rolf Tamnes
From a Norwegian security-policy perspective, a strong

and credible NATO is crucial, first and foremost, to
balance Russia. Russia will remain the defining factor
in Norwegian defense planning because its military
actions in Ukraine ended the deep peace in Europe, and
because Russias military buildup increases the disparity
in its power relationship with Norway. According to the
Expert Commission on Norwegian
Security and Defense Policy, the
Norwegian Armed Forces, the
society at large, and Norways
allies need to join forces in a unified
effort to create a new normal.
Norway and NATO must face the
threats from major geopolitical
shifts, and take key steps to make
the defense of the Alliance and
Norway more robust and credible.
Geopolitical Shifts,
Threats, and Risks
Norways Key Challenges

Norways top geostrategic area of responsibility is the
High North.1 More than 80 percent of the countrys
maritime area lies north of the Arctic Circle. It is also in
the High North that Norway shares
a land and sea border with Russia.
Norway and Russia work closely
together to manage resources in
the region. They also cooperate on
environmental issues and searchand-rescue contingencies. Norway
and Russia both rely on the Law
of the Sea to secure their interests
in the waters of the High North.
The 2010 treaty on maritime
boundaries in the Barents Sea and
the Arctic Ocean is a prominent
example of Russias willingness to
settle claims through diplomacy
and international law.
Norway is
becoming
increasingly
vulnerable to
Russias growing
inventory of longrange, precisionguided weapons,
and to advances in
Moscows offensive
cyber capabilities.
Shifts
in
the
geopolitical
environment
and
political
landscape are affecting the outlook
for Norway and NATO. First, the
growing geopolitical importance
of the Asia-Pacific region is
prompting the United States to allocate considerable
military resources to that part of the world. Under such
circumstances, Europe will need to make a greater
contribution to European security. Second, deep rifts
in North Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia are
the main challenges to the security of the southern part
of NATO, including countries that hardly see Russia as a
threat. If not managed with prudence, the North-South
divide might tear the Alliance apart.
Third, a more self-assertive Russia must be managed.
The Baltic region has become a hotspot in the
confrontation between Russia and the West. In
times of crisis and war, other NATO members will
expect Norway to make substantial contributions. In
peacetime, Norway is actively engaged in air policing
and military exercises in the region. However, the main
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
challenge to Norwegian security is in the European

High North.
There are very few local or

regional sources of major conflict
in the North, although differences
do exist. Most boundary issues in the Arctic are
solved, with some exceptions, notably the degree to
which the continental shelfs of the states in the North
extend beyond two hundred nautical miles into the
Arctic Ocean. Although Russia and other Arctic states
have substantial unresolved territorial claims, these
are unlikely to escalate to a crisis level. The Svalbard
Archipelago is a special case, and one that is sensitive
for both Oslo and Moscow. Russias desire for special
arrangements, particularly for greater influence over
fisheries around the Svalbard islands, is a source of
friction and may lead to a confrontation in the future.
Nevertheless, a military conflict in the Svalbard area is
unlikely to occur unless a local crisis is allowed to spiral
out of control, or if the area becomes part of a larger
international conflict.
1 Rolf Tamnes and Kristine Offerdal (eds.), Geopolitics and Security
in the Arctic. Regional Dynamics in a Global World (New York:
Routledge, 2014).
31
Norwegian Defense Minister Ine Eriksen Sreide observing a military exercise. Photo credit: Norwegian Ministry of
Defense.
The primary reason for the geostrategic value of the

High North is the concentration of Russian forces in
the area, particularly the nuclear submarines that
are central to Russias strategic deterrence. Russias
Bastion Defense system reaches not only into the
Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea, but also over
parts of Norwegian territory. Russia is also using
forward bases in the North for deployment, dispersal,
and support of long-range bombers normally
stationed at air bases further inland. Since 2007-08,
Russias military activities in the Arctic have increased,
including a greater number of patrols by its strategic
bombers and submarines. Furthermore, Norway is
becoming increasingly vulnerable to Russias growing
inventory of long-range, precision-guided weapons,
and to advances in Moscows offensive cyber
capabilities. If a crisis occurs, Norways leaders might
have very limited warning or preparation time, due to
the increasing speed of Russias military actions and
its more advanced military technology.
Three Steps to Improve Norwegian

Security
In Norways new security environment, three steps are
necessary for effective deterrence and collective defense.
32
Making NATO Stronger

While NATO faces many challenges, it is the only
major defense organization with the credibility and
capabilities to cope with Europes serious security
crises and armed conflicts. It moves in the right
direction, albeit slowly and hesitantly. NATOs
contingency plans are being updated, including its
plans for protecting Norway and the Alliances other
northern members. It is also developing the Very
High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), a unit that
will be capable of deploying faster than the existing
NATO Response Force (NRF). The US decision to
preposition military assets in Central and Eastern
Europe strengthens deterrence in the region. The
revitalization of Article 5 exercises adds an important
dimension to the joint efforts. In 2018, Norway will host
NATOs High Visibility Exercise, which will focus on
collective defense. All these efforts are of importance
to Norwegian security.
At the same time, there are obvious shortcomings in
the Alliances current capabilities. One of the most
conspicuous is the weaknesses in the command
structure. NATO needs to reestablish robust
headquarters with a defined area of responsibility,
and strengthen the link between NATO and national
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
However, this is not the whole story. The number

of personnel in the Norwegian military has been
significantly reduced since the end of the Cold War,
and the inability to activate many units on short notice
reveals a significant readiness problem. This was not
a major concern during the many years of operations
in the Balkans and Afghanistan. Today, readiness and
responsiveness will have to be top priorities. Improving
the sustainability and reducing the vulnerabilities of
the force structure are also essential. Much has to be
done to adjust Norways Armed Forces to the new
threat environment, and to make them capable of
adequately dealing with the full spectrum of conflicts.
Figure 1. The reach of the Russian bastion of defense

in the northern Atlantic. Source: Expert Commission on
Norwegian Security and Defense Policy, Unified Effort
(Oslo: Norwegian Ministry of Defense, 2015).
headquarters. Another urgent

shortcoming is NATOs maritime
strategy. After the Cold War,
priority has been accorded to
expeditionary crisis-management
operations out of area. The
time has come to reinvigorate
the maritime strategy, so that it
becomes an integral part of the
Alliances deterrence and defense
policy. Credible NATO naval
power and peacetime presence
in the Norwegian Sea is critical to
Norwegian security.
Norway cannot
meet its defense
obligations without
a significant
increase in
its defense
expenditures and a
major reallocation
of defense
resources in favor
of operations.
Improving Norways Own Defense

Due to key defense decisions,
Norway is protected by highquality armed forces and benefits from a modern
command structure. Its Navys new platforms and
weapon systems meet high standards. New submarines
will be acquired after the year 2020. The government
has planned an order of fifty-two F-35s to replace the
F-16 fleet, to be delivered in 2015-25. The proportion
of career military personnel in the Army has grown,
and the readiness of the Norwegian Home Guard has
been improved through better training and equipment.
Norways Special Forces are highly skilled, and among
the best forces in the world. There is every reason
to highlight positive aspects of the military forces,
especially as a significant number of NATO countries
have been cutting defense budgets.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Because Norway, as a small nation, depends heavily

on military assistance, national measures should
be judged from an Alliance perspective. In a severe
security crisis in the North, Norway must be able to
react very quickly, while also avoiding the risk of having
to act independently in the decisive, initial phase of a
conflict. For Norway, credible deterrence requires both
the simultaneous involvement of
allies and seamless escalation.
While some allied units may be
able to operate from bases outside
Norway, some allied forces should
operate from Norwegian territory,
both for operational reasons and
to increase the deterrent effect.2
To benefit from such allied forces,
Norway needs to prepare detailed
plans, as well as provide access
to the prepositioned materiel and
host nation support for the units.
Since 2000, Norway has belonged
to a small group of Alliance states
that have increased or sustained
their defense budgets. With the
new challenges in mind, the future
costs of Norways defense needs
are estimated to be considerably and consistently
higher than the current budgets. Norway cannot meet
its defense obligations without a significant increase
in its defense expenditures and a major reallocation of
defense resources in favor of operations.
At the 2014 Wales Summit, Norway agreed to the
NATO goal of increasing the defense budget to at
least 2 percent of its gross national product (GNP)
within ten years; todays proportion is 1.5 percent.
Though more money will be spent on defense in the
next few years, the steady growth of Norways GNP
makes it very unlikely that the 2 percent target will
2 Expert Commission on Norwegian Security and Defense Policy,
Unified Effort (Oslo: Norwegian Ministry of Defense, 2015).
33
Norwegian frigate Fridtjof Nansen in the Gulf of Aden. Photo credit: Norwegian Ministry of Defense.
be reached. Investment is another concern in NATO,

as the Alliance has established that at least 20
percent of the defense budget should be spent on
investments in major equipment, including research
and development. In 2015, Norways proportion is as
high as 23 percent, which is among the highest in the
Alliance. Norway is therefore in a privileged position
when it comes to modernizing its military structure.
Yet, the new geopolitical environment has brought the
economic challenges in the Norwegian Armed Forces
to the fore. Like many of its allies, Norway is facing
tough dilemmas in the choice between the depth and
breadth of its force structure.
Enhancing Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation
There is significant potential for more extensive
bilateral and multilateral cooperation to provide costeffective solutions for meeting Norways defense
needs. Norway already supports Germanys Framework
Nations Concept, in which one country takes the lead
to form a cluster, so that several countries can acquire
and maintain mutually needed defense capabilities.
Norway also supports the British initiative for a
multinational rapid response force based on the United
Kingdoms Joint Expeditionary Force.
34
Many of the new initiatives by NATO, and by

individual countries, are primarily tailored for
engagements in regions other than the North. The
operational environment and requirements in the
North are different from those of the Baltic region
and the southern flank, and this should be taken
into consideration in future deliberations. The role of
the United States in the North is a central issue for
Norwegian security.
The defense of Norway rests heavily on American
assistance, and it should be in the interest of both
countries to deepen their cooperation. Longlasting bilateral intelligence collaboration is at the
heart of the broader Norwegian-American military
cooperation, and is a testament to the level of mutual
trust between the two nations. The same goes for
the Norwegian patrol aircraft capability. Significant
US economic and technological contributions have
been a precondition for Norway to operate its P-3
Orion fleet. The operational life of the P-3 Orion will
expire by 2020. Without American support, Norway is
unlikely to have the resources to replace the P-3 Orion
with a new maritime-patrol aircraft. Good intelligence,
reconnaissance, and antisubmarine warfare capabilities
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Norwegian Home Guard. Photo credit: Norwegian Ministry of Defense.
would be important components in a new maritime

strategy.
defining bilateral alliance within the multilateral NATO

Alliance.
Norways procurement of US F-35 combat aircraft

deepens the security connection between the two allies,
and paves the way for close operational cooperation.
As was the case with the European F-16 program,
the successful acquisition and operation of the F-35
will require broad multinational cooperation. Norway
should continue to be active in hosting NATO exercises
and should develop its capabilities to host multinational
exercises, for instance, at the rland airbase. As part
of the effort to strengthen the airpower capabilities in
the North, the Collocated Operating Bases arrangement
should be updated, in order to link US combat aircraft
closer to the defense of Norway. The same logic goes
for the US Marine Corps, which has prepositioned
materiel in depots in central Norway (Marine Corps
Prepositioning ProgramNorway). These prepositioned
vehicles and supplies can support a Marine Air Ground
Task Force (MAGTF) of approximately 4,500 soldiers
and, if needed, can accommodate larger followon forces up to an expeditionary brigade of fifteen
thousand to eighteen thousand soldiers. This is a
formidable deterrent in todays Europe. For Norway,
the defense relationship with the United States is the
Conclusion: A Call for a New Normal
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
The revival of the collective-defense mission has

gradually gained support within NATO, illustrated by
the revised Strategic Concept in 2010 and the decisions
made at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales. There is a
need for increased budgets, improved cooperation
with a selection of close allies, and a revitalization
of the total defense concept. Norway must also stay
committed to contributing to international operations
abroad, because there will likely be more demand for
such operations in the future. All NATO countries have a
responsibility for contributing to the Alliances common
capability to perform all three of the core tasks defined
in the Strategic Concept: collective defense, crisis
management, and cooperative security with partners.3
New risks and threats have changed Norways security
environment. It will require both greater effort by Oslo
and assistance from key allies to create a new normal
in which the security of Norway and NATOs northern
3 NATO, Strategic Concept for the Defense and Security of the
Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, November
19, 2010, http://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/pdf/Strat_
Concept_web_en.pdf.
35
Norwegian F-16. Photo credit: Norwegian Ministry of Defense.
flank are credible and strong. This is not an easy

task, but it can be achieved. To meet this challenge,
Norway needs political and military leadership with the
vision to pursue long-term security, and the enduring
commitment to achieve it in time.
Rolf Tamnes is a Professor at the Norwegian Institute for
Defense Studies (IFS). He was the chair of the Expert
Commission on Norwegian Security and Defense Policy
and the report it produced, Unified Effort. This chapter
draws heavily on the report. The opinions expressed in
this essay are those of the author and do not represent
the views of IFS or the Norwegian government.
36
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
APPENDIX
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
37
/ UNITED KINGDOM
Graph 2. Defense Expenditure
(percentage of GDP)

(billion, constant 2013 US dollars)
5
80
70
62.85
60
61.492
59.022
49.84
50
4.05
4
3
40
2.38
2.2
2.08
2000
2014
2015
30
20
10
0
1991
2000
2014
2015
Note: 1991, 2000, and 2014 are expenditures. 2015 is a budget

estimate.
Graph 3. Total Active Military Personnel
Graph 4. Principal Surface Combatants

50
350,000
300,000
1991
Note: 1991, 2000, and 2014 are expenditures. 2015 is a budget

estimate.
48
40
300,100
34
250,000
30
212,300
200,000
145,690
150,000
100,000
20
19
10
50,000
0
0
1991
2000
2015
Graph 5. Main Battle TanksArmy

1,500
1991
500
1,200
530
429
400
900
300
616
600
2015
Graph 6. Combat AircraftAir Force

600
1,314
2000
266
200
300
227
100
0
1991
2000
2015
1991
2000
2015
Sources: NATO, the International Monetary Fund, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the Royal United
Services Institute.
38
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
/ FRANCE
(percentage of GDP)

80
3.5
71.11
70
3.0
61.44
60
51.71
50
3.3
51.25
40
2.47
2.5
1.86
2.0
1.76
1.5
30
1.0
20
0.5
10
0.0
0
1991
2000
2014
Note: 1991 and 2000 are expenditures. 2014 and 2015 are
budget estimates.

500,000
1991
2015
2014
2015
budget estimates.

50
453,000
41
40
35
400,000
30
294,430
300,000
215,000
200,000
23
20
10
100,000
0
0
1991
2000
2015

1,500
2000
1991
2015

1,000
1,349
800
1,200
845
571
600
834
900
2000
400
600
300
200
235
200
0
0
1991
2000
2015
1991
2000
2015
Sources: French Defense Ministry, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Institute for Strategic
Studies.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
39
/ GERMANY
(percentage of GDP)

2.5
80
67.2
70
2.2
2.0
60
50.62
50
40
42.69
42.867
1.49
1.5
1.14
1.11
2014
2015
1.0
30
20
0.5
10
0.0
0
1991
2000
2014
budget estimates.

500,000
2000
budget estimates.

20
467,000
400,000
1991
2015
15
321,000
14
14
1991
2000
16
300,000
181,207
200,000
100,000
0
1991
2000
2015

8,000
7,000
10

800
7,000
700
6,000
600
5,000
500
4,000
400
2,815
3,000
2015
410
457
300
2,000
1,000
638
237
200
100
0
1991
2000
2015
1991
2000
2015
Sources: German Defense Ministry, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Institute for Strategic
Studies.
40
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
/ POLAND
(percentage of GDP)

2.5
12
10.12
10
10.359
2.1
1.9
1.9
2014
2015
1.8
1.5
6.083
2.0
4.86
1.0
4
0.5
0.0
0
1991
2000
2014
1991
2015
budget estimates.

350,000
300,000
250,000

3
2.5
2.0
217,290
200,000
1.5
150,000
99,300
100,000
1.0
0.5
50,000
0.0
0
1991
2000
2015

3,000
budget estimates.
3.0
305,000
2000
2,850
1991
2015

600
2,500
500
2,000
2000
506
400
1,704
1,500
300
926
1,000
267
200
113
100
500
0
0
1991
2000
2015
1991
2000
2015
Sources: Polish Defense Ministry, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
41
/ ITALY
(percentage of GDP)

2.0
50
2.0
2.0
43.22
37.54
40
1.5
1.13
30
23.65
20
22.36
1.0
1.06
0.5
10
0.0
0
1991
2000
2014
budget estimates.

400,000
350,000
361,400
2015
32
30
25
19
20
176,000
200,000
2014

30
250,600
250,000
2000
budget estimates.
35
300,000
150,000
15
10
100,000
50,000
0
1991
2000
2015

1,500
1,200
1991
2015
0
1991
900
449
400
336
300
699
600
2015

500
1,220
2000
242
200
300
160
0
1991
2000
2015
100
0
1991
2000
2015
Sources: Italian Defense Ministry, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Institute for Strategic
Studies.
42
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
/ NORWAY
(percentage of GDP)

8
7.13
5.62
7.17
5.57
3.0
2.75
2.5
2.0
1.74
1.5
4
3
1.0
0.5
1.36
1.34
2014
2015
0.0
0
1991
2000
2014
budget estimates.

35,000
26,700
25,000
25,800

5
4
3
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1991
2000
2015
0
1991
2000
2015

100
250
200
2000
budget estimates.
32,700
30,000
1991
2015
211
80
170
150
60
100
40
52
50
85
79
63
20
0
0
1991
2000
2015
1991
2000
2015
Sources: Norwegian Defense Ministry, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Institute for
Strategic Studies.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
43
Atlantic Council Board of Directors

CHAIRMAN
*Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.
CHAIRMAN EMERITUS,
INTERNATIONAL
ADVISORY BOARD
Brent Scowcroft
PRESIDENT AND CEO
*Frederick Kempe
EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRS
*Adrienne Arsht
*Stephen J. Hadley
VICE CHAIRS
*Robert J. Abernethy
*Richard Edelman
*C. Boyden Gray
*George Lund
*Virginia A. Mulberger
*W. DeVier Pierson
*John Studzinski
TREASURER
*Brian C. McK. Henderson
SECRETARY
*Walter B. Slocombe
DIRECTORS
Stphane Abrial
Odeh Aburdene
Peter Ackerman
Timothy D. Adams
John Allen
Michael Andersson
Michael Ansari
Richard L. Armitage
David D. Aufhauser
Elizabeth F. Bagley
Peter Bass
*Rafic Bizri
Dennis Blair
*Thomas L. Blair
Myron Brilliant
Esther Brimmer
*R. Nicholas Burns
William J. Burns
*Richard R. Burt
Michael Calvey
James E. Cartwright
John E. Chapoton
Ahmed Charai
Sandra Charles
Melanie Chen
George Chopivsky
Wesley K. Clark
David W. Craig
*Ralph D. Crosby, Jr.
Nelson Cunningham
Ivo H. Daalder
*Paula J. Dobriansky
Christopher J. Dodd
Conrado Dornier
Thomas J. Egan, Jr.
*Stuart E. Eizenstat
Thomas R. Eldridge
Julie Finley
Lawrence P. Fisher, II
Alan H. Fleischmann
*Ronald M. Freeman
Laurie Fulton Courtney
Geduldig
*Robert S. Gelbard
Thomas Glocer
*Sherri W. Goodman
Mikael Hagstrm
Ian Hague
Amir Handjani
John D. Harris, II
Frank Haun
Michael V. Hayden
Annette Heuser
*Karl Hopkins
Robert Hormats
Miroslav Hornak
*Mary L. Howell
Wolfgang Ischinger
Reuben Jeffery, III
*James L. Jones, Jr.
George A. Joulwan
Lawrence S. Kanarek
Stephen R. Kappes
Maria Pica Karp
Sean Kevelighan
Zalmay M. Khalilzad
Robert M. Kimmitt
Henry A. Kissinger
Franklin D. Kramer
Philip Lader
*Richard L. Lawson
*Jan M. Lodal
Jane Holl Lute
William J. Lynn
Izzat Majeed
Wendy W. Makins
Mian M. Mansha
Gerardo Mato
William E. Mayer
Allan McArtor
Eric D.K. Melby
Franklin C. Miller
James N. Miller
*Judith A. Miller
*Alexander V. Mirtchev
Karl Moor
Michael Morell
Georgette Mosbacher
Steve C. Nicandros
Thomas R. Nides
Franco Nuschese
Joseph S. Nye
Hilda Ochoa-Brillembourg
Sean OKeefe
Ahmet Oren
*Ana Palacio
Carlos Pascual
Thomas R. Pickering
Daniel B. Poneman
Daniel M. Price
Arnold L. Punaro
Robert Rangel
Thomas J. Ridge
Charles O. Rossotti
Stanley O. Roth
Robert Rowland
Harry Sachinis
John P. Schmitz
Brent Scowcroft
Rajiv Shah
Alan J. Spence
James Stavridis
Richard J.A. Steele
*Paula Stern
Robert J. Stevens
John S. Tanner
*Ellen O. Tauscher
Karen Tramontano
Clyde C. Tuggle
Paul Twomey
Melanne Verveer
Enzo Viscusi
Charles F. Wald
Jay Walker
Michael F. Walsh
Mark R. Warner
Maciej Witucki
Neal S. Wolin
Mary C. Yates
Dov S. Zakheim
HONORARY DIRECTORS
David C. Acheson
Madeleine K. Albright
James A. Baker, III
Harold Brown
Frank C. Carlucci, III
Robert M. Gates
Michael G. Mullen
Leon E. Panetta
William J. Perry
Colin L. Powell
Condoleezza Rice
Edward L. Rowny
George P. Shultz
John W. Warner
William H. Webster
*Executive Committee Members
List as of February 22, 2016
The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that

promotes constructive US leadership and engagement
in international affairs based on the central role of the
Atlantic community in m
eeting todays global c
hallenges.
2016 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights
reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced
or transmitted in any form or by any means without
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in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical
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Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

Rapporteur: Jorge Benitez

This publication is a product of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

For more than six decades, NATO has provided the

economic interests. Every member of NATO is more

In a few months, NATOs leaders

Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

Former Secretary General of NATO

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

The broader transatlantic community faces a new

the Alliances north, south, east, and west, which also

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

The publication of the 2015 Strategic Defense and

In order to understand how the Cameron governments

The David Cameron

Even before the SDSR was

First, as the Prussian military

In essence, the nonstate and state actors that Britain

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

same time, instead of in theoretical isolation from

The threat to UK defense is posed by a resurgent

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

not least because there is an existential threat to the

In terms of defense, the UK also

On top of this, the NATO response force needs to be

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

In terms of security, the challenge that the UK faces,

First, through the deployment of precision strike; special

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

recent BBC interview, part of the greatness of Great

under-trained reserves; the scrapping of Royal Navy

[The UKs military

Second, this defense review is

Finally, for this review to be

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

must address the threats of the age, whether it is

reversing this trend and ensuring a stronger Britain in

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

Unlike most European countries, France enjoys the

war, eventually forcing the United States to abandon

Instead, simply put, the French

When current President Franois Hollande announced

This rallying around the flag also

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

of the Ministry of Defensealbeit an exceptionally

year,3 excluding military pensions. If military pensions

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

period 2012-15. This loss of purchasing power has been

fulfilling NATO commitments than they had been in

Since the end

Since the 2008 white paper

France has military bases and facilities on or near every

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition

UK (1.7) or Germany (2.2), if not the United States (4.4),

economic growth and thus broaden its budget base.

On the demand side, the modernization of the nuclear

The balance between means and ambitions is

The funding of unforeseen military operations will also

Alliance at Risk: Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition