1

Analysis of Election Candidates

By
John Ryder, Australia

John Ryder holds an honours degree in Civil

engineering and has worked with international
engineering consultancies for over 30 years, at
times holding senior management positions. He is
based in Sydney Australia and has followed a
strong interest in Jyotish for many years; his
engineering background led to development of
the statistical approaches reported in this article.
He has studied with Komilla Sutton and Keven
Barrett, and dedicates this article to Keven who
passed away earlier this year. Keven received his
training in Vedic astrology in India, and passed
on a deep knowledge of Jyotish to his students in
Australia. Among the many teachings Keven
shared, he always emphasised the importance of
the nakshatra dispositor of the dasha lord, which
has been strongly supported in the statistical
analysis reported below. Without Keven's
guidance and inspiration this work would not
have developed in the right direction, and all
credit is due to Keven and his lineage of great
teachers in India.

Introduction and Background

n Part I of this article (Saptarishis

Astrology Volume 9 Article 207) the
case was presented for the use of
statistical analysis in the study of Jyotish
chart indicators, and a detailed case study
was described; this focused on the timing
of elevation of the highest level political
leaders in the world during the 20th
century, and the following predictive
approach was seen to hold true for 48 of
the 701 political charts that were studied,
compared with a random expectation of 34
charts:
"Elevation of leaders is likely to be seen
during the dasha periods of planets that
are disposited in the signs or nakshatras
1

These comprised 44 charts of world leaders comprising

the initial study data base, along with a further 26
political charts from a second confirmation group of 44
charts of political leaders and eminent persons.

of strong kendra and trikona lords in charts. The primary basis for selection of these house
lords is through the yogas they participate in, but other factors such as position and other
strengths are also used in this assessment."
When allowance was made for possible inaccuracies in chart data and judgments in the
selection of yogas, this reduced to 46 charts, a result which has 1 in 500 chance of arising on a
random basis. This provided strong support for the concept of kendra and trikona lord yoga
planets acting as sign and nakshatra dispositors of the dasha lord at the time of elevation.
Results for yoga planets timing directly were also studied and found to be no different to the
random expectation, demonstrating the benefits of statistical analysis in refining our
understanding of the application of Jyotish techniques.
At a practical level the above rule has been used to compare the prospects of the
winning and losing candidates in 27 historical US, UK and French elections, and details of
this analysis along with some example charts are presented in this second article. The most
recent May 2012 French election is also analysed, along with the charts of the two candidates
in the upcoming November 2012 US election.

Comparative Analysis - Candidates Charts

orking with the main data base of 44 leaders charts, charts of the losing
candidates in the elections where these leaders gained or established power
were reviewed. While in Germany the Chancellor appears to have been
appointed on several occasions following a negotiation of coalition governments, in the US,
UK and France the elections are generally focused on the two main party candidates. The
2010 UK election was also studied, although Prime Minister Cameron was not included in
the elevation study due to his short time in office at the time of this study. In many cases the
charts of losing candidates are unavailable or unreliable, but there are 27 US, UK and French
elections from the 20th and early 21st centuries for which reasonably reliable charts are
available for both candidates. (The election dates and candidates birth data are listed in
Appendix A).
These 27 elections provide a good basis for comparative analysis of the charts of the
paired candidates, using the predictive rule noted above. Results of this analysis are
presented in Table 1 below for the following four cases:
1. The dasha planet at time of elevation is disposited by a planet belonging to the
group of all kendra and trikona lord yogas in the chart (All Yogas case).

2. The dasha planet at time of elevation is disposited by a planet belonging to a selected

kendra and trikona lord yogas in the chart. (Sel. Yogas case). The basis of this
selection procedure is explained in Part I of this article.
3. The dasha planet at the time of elevation is either the 10th lord, in or aspecting the 10th
house, or is Sun or Rahu as 10th house karaka planets. (10th House case) This house based
approach, which was examined along with the yoga cases in the initial study,
demonstrated a slightly weaker but still reasonable level of statistical strength and so
was included in the election analysis.)
4. The dasha lord at time of elevation belongs to both of groups 2 & 3 above; i.e. there
is overlap or confluence between these two groups in the timing analysis (Confl.
case).
Table 1: Comparative Results for the Charts of Winning and Losing
Candidates
27 Winning Candidates Charts
1. All
2. Sel.
3. 10th
4. Confl.
Yogas
Yogas
House
No of Successful Cases
22.8
20.8
19
16
X (1)
Mean Expectation
16.1
13.8
12.9
7.5
Effect Size (X )
6.7
7.0
6.1
8.5
Effect Ratio X/
1.42
1.51
1.47
2.14
27 Losing Candidates Charts
1. All
2. Sel.
3. 10th
4. Confl.
Yogas
Yogas
House
No of Successful Cases
15.5
9.5
10
6
X (1)
Mean Expectation
14.4
9.7
12.0
5.9
(2)
Effect Size (X )
1.1
- 0.2
- 2.0
0.1
Effect Ratio X/
1.07
0.98
0.83
1.03
Note (1): Results have been adjusted (downward) to compensate for possible chart
inaccuracies.
Note (2): The mean values are based on the number of planets engaged in each chart for each
indicator, and hence are slightly different for each group of charts.

The difference between the overall results for the winning and losing candidates is quite
marked; results for the winning candidates follow the patterns found in the successful
leaders charts (explained in Part I of this article), with X/ values of the order of 1.4 and
above, and (X ) values rising above the mean in proportion to the number of charts. On
the other hand results for the losing candidates are very similar to the expected random
pattern. The result with the strongest pattern is for the confluence condition, suggesting
that the supporting 10th House indications provide important clues in this comparative
analysis.
Although based on a modest sample, this null result for the losing candidates charts
provides further support for the proposed predictive rule. While at one level the positive
results in this group represent the random pattern, at another they are interacting with the
winning candidates charts in election situations; the results in Table 1 suggest a statistically
based approach that can be introduced into the analysis of two candidate elections, to be
studied alongside other indicators and the national and event charts normally used in
election analysis. When studied individually the pairs of charts in these 27 elections follow
several distinct patterns. (These patterns are annotated in the tabulated list of elections in
Appendix A).
Pattern 1 Stronger Yoga Patterns in Winning Candidates Chart

n these charts there is timing support through the yogas analysis in the winning
candidates but not the losing candidates. This arises in the 11 cases of losing candidates
2
T Roosevelt in 1912 , Landon in 1936, Kerry in 2004, Callaghan in 1979, Kinnock in 1987
& 1992, Hague in 2001, Mitterand in 1965, Poher in 1969, Jospin in 1995 and Royal in 2007. The
comparative charts of Wilson & Roosevelt in the 1912 US election, presented below, are
typical of this group. (The 4 boxes across the base of each chart represent the four indicator
cases analysed in Table 1; the shaded boxes show successful indicators, marked Y.
Unsuccessful indicators are marked N).
W Wilson: Sa D. Me-Sa Raj
Yoga

T Roosevelt: Ve D. Jp-Ve Raj

Yoga

2 T Roosevelt, Callaghan and Mitterand were in a different dasha period from when they rose to power; in the first two cases

time had moved on, in the latter his time was yet to come.

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Conf
AY: N
l: Y

SY:
N

10H:
N

Confl:
N

In the Wilson chart Mercury and Saturn form a Raja Yoga between the 10 th and 5th
lords across the 4/10 axis. Dasha planet Saturn is disposited by Mercury in the 10 th house.
(While the observed strengths can be described in other ways in some charts, for example in
this case Saturn is simply the dasha lord in the 10th house, these became a statistically strong
group when collected together through the dispositor rule, and this approach has been
applied consistently through the analyses.)
Jupiter and Venus form a Raja Yoga between the 10th and 5th lords in the Roosevelt
chart, but while Venus as the dasha lord is in the Yoga, there is no dispositor relationship as
required by the rule. As noted earlier, the case of yoga planets timing directly, which arises
in this chart, scored no better than random chance in the 70 political elevation charts, while
the case of dasha planets disposited by strong yoga planets was far more successful in the
statistical analysis.
Pattern 2 Winning Candidates Chart Stronger in more Indicators

n this group there is generally stronger timing support in the winning candidates chart;
in 5 cases there is full confluence in the winning candidates charts, but timing support
through the yogas analysis only in the losing candidates charts, without any 10th house
influence. This applies in the 5 elections of F Roosevelt vs. Hoover & Wilkie, Carter vs.
Ford, H Wilson vs. Douglas Home, and Mitterand vs. dEstaing. In 2 other cases the losing
candidates chart has support through the All Yogas analysis but not the Selected Yogas;
Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972 and Bush Snr. vs. Dukakis in 1988. The comparative charts of
Carter & Ford in the 1976 US election, presented below, are typical of this group.
There are thee kendra and trikona lord yogas in the Carter chart; Moon and Saturn as
th
10 and 5th lords and Venus and Mercury as 1st and 9th lords form Raja Yoga combinations,
while Saturn in its own sign in the 1st house forms a Maha Purusha Yoga. The strongest of
these yogas is between Moon and Saturn as 10th and 5th lords. Dasha planet Ketu is disposited
by Saturn and is also aspecting the 10th house, and so fulfills all criteria.

Sun and Jupiter form a Raja Yoga between the 5th and 9th lords in Fords chart, and Mars
in its own sign in the 1st house forms a Maha Purusha Yoga. Mars disposits the dasha planet
Moon, but the selected two planet Raja Yoga has no dispositor influence, and nor does Moon
influence the 10th house.
J Carter: Ke D. Mo-Sa Raj
Yoga

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Conf
l: Y

G Ford: Mo D. Su-Jp RY, Ma

MPY

AY:Y

SY:
N

10H:
N

Confl:
N

Pattern 3 both Charts having Similar Indications

In this group there are similar levels of support in both charts; this applies in the 4 cases
of Kennedy vs. Nixon, GW Bush vs. Gore, Obama vs. McCain and Mitterand vs. Chirac.
Since it was necessary to focus the number of indicators examined in the statistical analysis,
other Jyotish indicators need to be examined to help differentiate between these charts, and
in most cases a wider assessment provides clues to the favored candidate. The comparative
charts of Kennedy & Nixon in the 1960 US election and Mitterand & Chirac in the 1988
French election are presented below by way of example.
J Kennedy: Ra D. Jp-Ve Raj
Yoga

R Nixon: Sa D. Su-Jp Raj

Yoga

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Conf
AY: Y
l: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Confl:
Y

Jupiter and Venus as 4th and 9th lords form a strong Raja Yoga in the Kennedy chart,
and Jupiter is the dispositor of Rahu which also aspects the 10th house. In the Nixon chart
Jupiter and Sun and Mars form a series of Raja Yogas between the 5th, 1st and 4th & 9th lords.
Since Mars is in a war with Mercury the Jupiter Sun combination is selected as the strongest
yoga. The dasha planet Saturn is in Krittika nakshatra ruled by Sun and is also well placed in
the 10th house, and it is seen that both charts have dasha planets disposited by good yogas and
with influence on the 10th house.
This was a close election, and other chart influences need to be studied. At the time of
the election Kennedy was in Ra-Ma dasha bhukti period having a positive 5/9 relationship in
the chart, and Nixon was in Sa-Ve having a good 4/10 relationship. Venus in the Nixon
chart is also 10th lord, while Mars is 3rd & 8th lord in the Kennedy chart, forming a positive
Sarala Yoga in the 8th house. This yoga can be associated with a sudden rise of life, and
appears to have operated more strongly in the Kennedy chart than 10th lord Venus in the
Nixon chart, emphasising the importance of all yogas in these charts.
F Mitterand: Me D. Me
Bhadra Yoga

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

J Chirac: Ra D. Sa-Ve CW
Yoga

Conf
AY: Y
l: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Confl:
Y

Both charts have dasha planets disposited by kendra lord yogas with 10th house or Rahu
associations. In the Mitterand chart the 1st & 10th lord and Bhadra Yoga planet Mercury is
also the dasha lord, whereas the Chirac dasha planet Rahu is in the 2nd house disposited by
Saturn, which forms Shasha Yoga in the 1st house and also a Co-Worker Yoga with Venus as
10th lord in its own sign. This suggests a subtle distinction of greater strength in the
Mitterand chart. Mitterand is in Me-Ma dasha bhukti where Mars in 3rd lord in the 3rd. For
Chirac Ra-Me dasha bhukti is a 1/10 relationship and also quite strong.

Pattern 4 Losing Charts with Stronger Indications

In 5 of the elections the winning candidates charts are stronger than those of the losing
candidates when the proposed predictive rule is applied. These are the cases of Clinton vs.
Bush Snr, Clinton vs. Dole, Blair vs. Major, Cameron vs. Brown and dEstaing vs.
Mitterand. The losing candidate in 4 of these elections (all except Dole) won an election on
another occasion, suggesting that their charts must be inherently strong. There are also some
wider factors to be considered in understanding these results:
Clinton vs. Bush Snr, Clinton vs. Dole: The anomalous results are based on the Clinton
birth time favored by Astrodatabank, giving a Virgo ascendant. Earlier birth times are
also quoted by some sources giving rise to a Cancer ascendant, which provides far
stronger and more equal timing support in both of these elections.
Blair vs. Major: Major was leading an 18 year old government and in the mind of the
people it was time for a change; wider factors were clearly at play. While there was full
confluence in the Major chart the Blair chart was also strong with AY and SY support for
the dasha lord.
Cameron vs. Brown: Both charts are weak against the proposed criteria, which may be
reflected in the fact that Cameron did not win the election outright, and is tied into a
coalition government.
dEstaing vs. Mitterand: This was the closest ever French election with a 1.6% margin,
and reflected some wider factors; following the death of Pompidou there was a short time
only for candidates to prepare and d'Estaing was able to portray himself as "the change in
the continuity" of the incumbent party; and this was the first time that Mitterand stood
for election during his Mercury dasha, which would support his success against dEstaing
in 1981, and Chirac in 1988.

Confirmation of Predictive Rule

he proposed rule has provided a clear basis for predicting the outcome of the 11
pattern 1 and 7 pattern 2 elections, and provided a strong base from which to
extend a wider Jyotish analysis in the pattern 3 elections. Discounting the 5
pattern 4 elections accepting the judgments as valid in say 2 of the pattern 3 elections, it
has been possible to predict or judge the outcome of about 20 or 75% of the 27 elections in this
way. This compares with a random expectation of 50% or 13.5, with an effect size of 6.5 and

effect ratio of 1.48, consistent with the chart results for the winning candidates. This is a
good predictive rate for any Jyotish technique, and in this case is statistically based.
The value of the predictive rule for elevation has been confirmed at a practical level, and
in the context of elections the following broader qualification can be added:
Comparative study of the relative strength of the other candidates chart should also be carried
out as part of a final determination, also keeping in mind any directions suggested by the event chart
and the national chart if accurately available. If a clear distinction cannot be made, study other
features of the charts including other yogas and the bhukti rulers. Trends in the timing patterns should
also be studied, especially when the bhukti planets change at critical times during the election and
appointment process.
Analysis of Recent and Upcoming Elections

he comparative charts of Hollande & Sarkozy in the May 2012 French election are
presented below. While there are no kendra and trikona lord Raja Yogas in the
Sarkozy chart, Saturn as exalted 5th lord, and Jupiter as 4th and 7th lord in the 10th
are the strongest of these lords; they are also conjunct in the navamsha chart. When Sarkozy
was first elected in 2007 he was in Sun dasha, disposited by Saturn. During the 2012 election
he was in Moon dasha, disposited by Jupiter. In the Hollande chart Mercury and Sun form a
conventional Raja Yoga between the 5th and 4th lords, and the dasha planet Jupiter is
disposited by Mercury while also aspecting the 10th house. By this assessment the Hollande
chart is the strongest chart for elevation at the time, and as is known Hollande won this
election.
F Hollande: Jp D. Me-Su Raj
Yoga

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

N Sarkozy: Mo D. Sa & Jp
k/t lords

Conf
AY: Y
l: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
N

Confl:
N

The comparative charts of candidates Obama & Romney in the upcoming3 November
2012 US election are presented below. Using the proposed rule the Obama chart has
ascendant lord Saturn in the self dispositing Shasha Yoga, as well as in a Raja Yoga with
Mercury and also aspecting the 10th house. This is a very strong position. While Mercury and
Sun form a strong Raja Yoga in the 10th house of the Romney chart, neither of these disposits
the dasha planet Sun.
B Obama: Sa D. Sa-Me Raj
Yoga

AY: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

M Romney: Su D. Me-Su Raj

Yoga

Conf
AY: Y
l: Y

SY:
Y

10H:
Y

Confl:
Y

As noted earlier, there was no statistical support for the case of yoga planets timing
directly, which arises in this chart, while the case of dasha planets disposited by strong yoga
planets was much stronger. So while the dasha planet is in a yoga in the 10th house in the
Romney chart, the proposed rule suggests that the Obama chart is stronger; in simple terms
the dasha planet is the ascendant lord which is strong in its own house and also aspecting the
10th house. While other features of the charts and the election should also be studied and
weighed together, this statistically based analysis supports the re-election of Obama.

3 This

article was prepared in late September 2012

10

Appendix A List of Elections and Candidates

Election

Winning Candidates

Losing Candidates

Election

Date

Birth Data (ADB Roden Rating) Ascendant

Birth Data (ADB Roden Rating) Ascendant

Pattern

1912

W Wilson
29/12/1856 00.45 LMT Staunton VA (B) 2340' Vir

1932

F Roosevelt
30/1/1882 20.45 LMT Hyde Park NY (AA) 1 03' Vir

1936

F Roosevelt

T Roosevelt
27/10/1858 19.45 LMT New York NY (B) 2 43' Gem.
Hoover
10/8/1874 23.15 LMT West Branch IA (C) 7 18' Tau
Landon

13 US Presidential Elections

9/9/1887 12.00 W Middlesex PA (A) 8 0' Sco

1940

F Roosevelt

Wilkie
18/2/1892 05.00 Elwood IN (A) 23 56' Cap

1960

Kennedy

Nixon

29/5/1917 15.00 EST 5hr Brookline MA (A) 27 17' Vir 9/1/1913 21.35 PST 8 hr Fullerton CA (AA) 24 40' Leo
1972

Nixon

McGovern

9/1/1913 21.35 PST 8 hr Fullerton CA (AA) 24 40' Leo

1976

Carter
1/10/1924 7.00 CST 6hr Plains GA (AA) 3 17' Lib

1988

Bush Snr
12/6/1924 11.45 EDT 4hr Milton MA (A)18 22' Leo.

1992

Clinton (Virgo)
19/8/1946 8.51 CST 6hr Hope AR (A)12 23' Vir

1996

Clinton (Virgo)

19/7/1922 3.00 Avon SD (A) 14 35' Gem

Ford
14/7/1913 00.43 CST 6hr Omaha NE (AA) 20 31' Ari
Dukakis
3/11/1933 17.50 Boston MA (AA) 14 06' Tau
Bush Snr
12/6/1924 11.45 EDT 4hr Milton MA (A)18 22' Leo.
Dole
22/7/1923 00.10 Russell KS (A) 13 23' Ari

2000

GW Bush

Gore

6/7/1946 7.26 EDT 4hr New Haven CT (AA) 14 0' Can 31/3/1948 12.53 EST Washington DC (AA)11 05' Can
2003

GW Bush

Kerry
11/12/1943 08.03 Denver CO (C) 23 Sco

2008

Obama
McCain (Virgo)
4/8/1961 19.24 AHST10hr Honolulu HI (AA) 2444' Cap
29/8/1936 9.00 Cocosolo PAN (C) 24 Vir

1964

H Wilson

7 French Pres. Elections

7 UK General Elections

11/3/1916 10.45 GMT Huddersfield UK (A) 1111' Gem

1979

13/10/1925 9.00 GMT Grantham UK (A) 22 27' Lib

1987

Thatcher

2/7/1903 7.30 GMT London UK (A) 26 27' Can

Callaghan
27/3/1912 16.20 GMT Portsmouth UK (A) 22 11' Leo
Kinnock
28/3/1942 14.00 Tredegar UK (A) 15 57' Can

1992

Major

Kinnock

29/3/1943 3.15 GDT. London UK (C) 12 48' Sag

1997

Blair

Major

6/5/1953 6.10 GDT. Edinburgh (AA)11 37' Tau

2001

Blair

Hague
26/3/1961 6.00 Rotherham UK (A) 4 40' Aqu

2010

Cameron
9/10/1966 6.00 London UK (A) 8 09' Vir

Brown
20/2/1951 8.40 GMT Glasgow (AA) 25 27' Pis

1965

De Gaulle

Mitterand

22/11/1890 4.00 LMT Lille FR (AA) 29 47' Vir

1969

Pompidou
5/7/1911 7.30 GMT Allanche FR (AA) 27 53' Can

1974

d'Estaing

26/10/1916 4.00 GMT Jarnac FR (AA) 10 20' Vir

Poher
17/4/1909 7.51 Ablon sur Seine FR (AA) 29 59' Tau
Mitterand

2/2/1926 21.30 GMT Koblenz GER (AA) 16 2' Vir

1981

Mitterand

d'Estaing

1988

Mitterand

Chirac
29/11/1932 12.00 GMT Paris FR (AA) 27 51' Cap

1995

Chirac

Jospin
12/7/1937 23.10 Meudon FR (AA) 26 30' Aqu

2007

Recent

Thatcher

Douglas Home

Sarkozy
28/1/1955 22.00 (1E) Paris FR (AA) 2 53' Vir

May 2012 Hollande

Royal
22/9/1953 16.10 Dakar SEN (C) 15 45' Cap
Sarkozy

12/8/1954 00.10 Rouen FR (AA) 14 34' Tau

Nov 2012 Obama (Incumbent)
Future

Romney
12/3/1947 09.51 Detroit MI (A) 7 54' Tau

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