Za Ethiopia Growth Miracle July2014

Ethiopia
A growth miracle
ALGORITHM
AFRICA
Contents
Ethiopias growth miracle
Political stability
Currency stability and exchange rate policy
Inflation management
Changing structure of GDP
Investment in infrastructure
Policy: the developmental state
11
Poverty reduction
13
Health and education
14
Infrastructure improvements
15
Addis as a hub
17
International relations
18
Prospects
19
Contacts
20
Ethiopia A growth miracle
Ethiopias growth miracle
Ethiopias growth miracle, coupled with its large

population and significant land mass, has attracted
the attention of many international companies. Over
the last ten years, the country has achieved doubledigit growth in real terms, averaging 10.6% per year,
which is the second fastest in Africa after Angolai
and even surpasses that of China (10.2%)ii. Growth
is expected to continue at a rapid pace although
forecasts suggest that it will moderate to just over
7% over the next five years.
These growth rates are the fruit of years of
investment and reform that have seen the country
entrench economic, social and political stability.
Prior to 2004, the economy was extremely volatile,
experiencing violent contractions in 1985, 1992,
1998 and 2003, with a milder recession in 1989.
Economic vulnerability was driven by an unfortunate
blend of unfavourable weather conditions, armed
conflict and policy that undermined access to food.
The result was a series of famines, the worst of which
made world headlines in 1985.
Ethiopia has historically experienced severe droughts

more or less once every ten yearsiii. Drought, combined
with poor farming practices - including almost total
dependence on rainfed agriculture - has certainly
contributed to negative economic growth in Ethiopia
in the past, but conflict, government policy inhibiting
access to food and the excessive dependence of the
whole economy on agriculture have been far more
important drivers. Many potential investors eager to
avail themselves of the rich opportunities that Ethiopia
now offers will want to reassure themselves that past
threats to the countrys economic and political stability
belong firmly in the past, and that solid measures have
been put in place to mitigate these risks in the future.
RealGDP
GDPgrowth
growth (y-o-y
(y-o-y %
% change)
Real
20 20
15 15
10
Famine
Famine
Flood
Drought
18
20
16
20
Data: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2013
20
18
19
98 199
8
19
96 199
6
Civil War
Poverty (PASDEP)
20
16
Programme
(SDPRP)
94
19
82 1
98
2
19
84 1
98
4
19
86 1
98
6
19
88 19
88
19
90 19
90
19
92 19
92
-20
Regime Change
Civil War
19
94 19
-20
14
War
-15
Sustainable
Plan for Accelerated
Growth and
Development and
and Sustainable
Transformation Plan
(GTP) and
Poverty
Reduction Development
to End
Sustainable
Plan for Accelerated
Growth
Programmeand
Poverty
(PASDEP)
Development
and Sustainable
Transformation Plan
(SDPRP)
Poverty Reduction Development to End
(GTP)
20
War
Regime Change
20
14
20
20
12
12
20
20
10
10
Attempted Coup
-10
Attempted Coup
-10
Drought
20
20
08
08
-5
Drought
Drought
Drought
-5
-15
Drought
2
20
06 006
Famine
Famine
20
2
04 004
20
2
02 002
Flood
20
2
00 00
0
10
Data: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2013
Figure 1: Understanding economic drivers, 1980-2018

Political stability
After more than two decades of civil war, the effects

of which were exacerbated by international conflicts
with Somalia (1977 and 1998) and Eritrea (1999)iv,
Ethiopia has now enjoyed more than a decade of
peace. The ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) - a coalition of former rebel
groups that overthrew the Dergs military dictatorship
in 1991 - commands almost total hegemony.
Ethiopia is a multiparty democracy, but in practice
there is little opposition to the EPRDF, which won
more than 90% of the vote in the 2010 elections, up
from just under 60% in 2005. The strength of this
mandate has certainly helped to make it possible for
the Ethiopian state to deliver the economic results
the country so badly needs, yielding success where a
weaker state might have failed, given the odds.
The death of Meles Zenawi in 2012, first elected as

prime minister in 1995 and who effectively led the
country for more than twenty years, has created some
uncertainty over who will lead the coalition after the
federal elections scheduled for 2015. It is not a given
that Acting Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn will
be put forward as the EPRDF candidate. However,
the consensus is that political stability, in the form
of a strong coalition government led by the EPRDF,
willprevail.
Currency stability and

exchange rate policy
The National Bank of Ethiopia operates a managed

float and has a policy of gradual depreciation of the
Birr (which is not freely convertible), with occasional
sharper adjustments reflecting changes in the parallel
marketv. Ethiopia was granted debt relief under the
Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative in
2001. This provided considerable support to the
balance of payments until 2011, but the overall cost
of servicing foreign debt quadrupled between 2009
and 2012vi, vii.
In keeping with the primary goal of poverty alleviation,

the government prefers to use foreign exchange
reserves to help fund development programmes. Due
to this, foreign reserves are not expected to exceed
three months of import cover, and tend to be a bit
lower. Relatively low reserves and the trade deficit
have created downward pressure on the Birr for some
time, a trend that is expected to persist. However,
thanks to the central bank policy of a managed float,
the volatility of the Birr tends to be low, particularly
for an emerging market currency. Exchange controls
are strict, but processes are in place to help foreign
investors satisfy their needs for foreign currencyviii.
New technology to speed up

inter-bankprocessing
Swiss-based BPC Banking Technologies has
been selected by Eth-Switch SC, a consortium
of all sixteen Ethiopian banks, to implement
an electronic transfer system that will enable
electronic transfers between banks, clearing
of cheques and sharing of automated teller
machines (ATMs). It will take a year to implement
the project, which will mark a major milestone
in the journey towards an efficient, modern
bankingsystem.
Credit cards become more widely available

as the banking system matures
The banking system in Ethiopia is developing
quickly. One indication of this is the availability
of internationally recognised credit cards
such as Visa and Mastercard. Visa cards are
now available through two leading Ethiopian
banks, the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia and
DashenBank. Until recently, Dashen Bank was
the only Ethiopian bank to distribute Mastercard,
but in March 2014 Awash International
Bank (AIB) announced a partnership with
MastercardInternational.
Debt service has increased but is sustainable

%
Exchange rate, foreign reserves and the current account
50
US$m
500
45
450
40
400
35
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
50
Total debt service (% of exports)

Debt service on foreign debt (US$m) (right axis)
Total debt service (% of GNI)
US$m
Birr/US$
25,00
6 000
4 000
20,00
2 000
15,00
0
10,00
-2 000
5,00
-4 000
-6 000
2005
2006
2007
Current-account balance
Figure 2: Debt service has increased but is sustainable
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total international reserves
2012
2013
2014
2015
0,00
Exchange rate Birr:US$ (av)
Figure 3: Exchange rate, foreign reserves and the current account
Inflation management
Banks in OECD countries typically use interest rates

as a mechanism for managing inflation, price stability
being their primary mandate. Capital markets in
Ethiopia are still under development. This makes it
difficult to use interest rates as a tool for managing
inflation, which has reached double-digits in six years
out of the last ten. Although the depreciation of the
Birr has contributed to price spikes, the main driver
has been food prices. Poor harvests lead to domestic
food shortages, which in turn cause local prices to
rise. At the same time, an increased need for food
imports exposes consumers to volatile international
food prices.
Food prices and food imports as inflation drivers

US$m
%
50,0
2500
40,0
2000
30,0
1500
20,0
10,0
1000
0,0
500
-10,0
-20,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Basic food imports (US$m) (right axis)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Inflation (annual % change)
2011
2012
International food prices (annual % change)
Figure 4: Food prices and food imports as inflation drivers
Changing structure of GDP
Dependence on agriculture has decreased significantly

since the 1980s, falling from 56% to 46% of GDP.
This still makes the sector far more dominant than is
usual elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. The change in
structure has emerged due to the growth in services,
driven by an increase in financial intermediation,
public administration and retail trade, rather than
the growth that was hoped for in industry and
specifically manufacturing. As a result, more measures
to support the growth of industry - and especially
manufacturing-have been put in place and there are
indications that manufacturing is beginning to expand,
even though it is too early for the changes to be
reflected in the national accountsix.
Ethiopia leverages its natural resource

advantage by creating fertiliser industry
Ethiopia has the third largest potassium deposit
in the world. A recent deal signed with Israeli
Chemicals Limited (ICL) Africa will see the
development of Ethiopian Allana Potashs
Danakhil deposit, expected to produce one
million tonnes of potash per year. This will help
to introduce the new fertiliser to farmers in
Ethiopia, boosting yields, and introducing a new
product for export. The Allana-ICL partnership
has already invested US$25 million of a planned
US$642 million total investment.
Evolution of the Ethiopian economy
14,0
8000
12%
7000
31%
Services
Agriculture
42%
8,0
12%
53%
32%
46%
Coffee
Millet
Barley
2000
Wheat
Maize
Data: World Development Indicators
Figure 5: Evolution of the Ethiopian economy
2011
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
Other cereals
1995
2000s
1994
1980s
Sorghum
3000
1000
56%
16%
Meat
5000
4000
4,0
2,0
Non-food
6000
1993
6,0
Evolution of agricultural output (US$m)
9000
Other industry
10,0
Agricultures share of GDP has not altered much, but

the composition of agricultural output has changed
as dramatically as its overall value has increased. This
growth has been achieved by expanding the area
of land under cultivation rather than by increasing
productivity, which remains low. It is a problem
that could and should be addressed, and solving it
is core to the current Growth and Transformation
Plan. For instance, the use of fertiliser is still
limited-even if imports of fertiliser increased from
less than US$50,000 in 2001 to nearly US$630,000
in 2012 - and dependence on rain-fed agriculture is
still high. The African Development Bank estimates
that a 1%change in average annual rainfall results
in a 0.3%change in GDP growth the following
year, reflecting the impact that changes to farming
techniques could have on the economyxii.
US$m
Manufacturing
12,0
The expansion of mining activity will also contribute

to reducing Ethiopias dependence on agriculture.
In 2012 mining contributed 1.6% to GDP, and just
under 10% to export revenues. The 2009/10 Growth
and Transformation Plan aims to see this contribution
increase to 10% of national outputx. Until recently,
little had been invested in mapping the countrys
mineral resources, but the last decade has seen
intensifying interest from global mining companies
such as Vale, BHP Billiton and Petronas, to name
but a fewxi. New investment has resulted in fresh
discoveries of gold, tantalum and potash reserves. In
2008 that the government began exporting opals, of
which Ethiopia is now the second largest producer in
theworld.
Other food
Data: FAO
Figure 6: Evolution of agricultural output (US$ million)
Changes in the composition of agricultural output are

also reflected in the pattern of exports, which has seen
the emergence of totally new categories in the top
ten goods. For example, exports of cut flowers and
fresh vegetables were practically non-existent in 2003
but figured in the top five exports by 2012, together
making up one quarter of all exports. Although coffee
is, for the moment, still the cornerstone of exports, its
share of the total is gradually decreasing. The strategy
of diversification and focus on comparative advantage
are paying off. Over the same decade that has seen
the Birrs value relative to the dollar halved, exports
have expanded tenfold in US dollar terms.
Effective partnerships led to the birth of

rose farming in Ethiopia, along with its
twin - a functional cold chain
The Ethiopian flower industry simply did not exist
until 2005. Today, Ethiopia is the worlds second
largest supplier of roses, which make up the
lions share of cut flower production - as well as
13% of exports, worth over US$500 million in
2012, and still growing fast. The sector employs
85,000 workers (mainly women) on more than
100 farms.
The story of Ethiopias roses illustrates how
effective partnership between donors, the private
sector and government can be. The Ethiopian
government provided generous incentives
to attract investors, made state-owned land
available at affordable prices close to Bole
International Airport, and initiated discussions
between producers and Ethiopian Airlines, who
leases cargo planes to the industry. The Dutch
government provided private sector investment
grants to partnerships between Dutch companies
and Ethiopian producers, who had also formed
the Ethiopia Horticultural Producers and Exporters
Association (EHPEA) to promote the sector. The
birth of Ethiopian rose farming has also served to
generate a functional cold chain.
Investment in infrastructure
Over the last decade, investment in Ethiopia has

ratcheted up and is now amongst the highest in the
world, relative to GDP. This is entirely necessary, since
it is estimated that the country needs to invest an
average of US$5.1bn per year in infrastructure alone
for an entire decade in order to overcome existing
constraints to developmentxiii.
Investors come from a well-diversified set of
countriesxiv and in 2012, foreign direct investment (FDI)
overtook Overseas Development Assistance (ODA)
for the first time. 2012 also saw the creation of two
private equity funds specifically targeting Ethiopia for
the first timexv. Obtaining more investment from the
private sector is crucial if the objectives laid out in the
Growth and Development Plan are to be achieved,
setting in motion a virtuous circle that stands to
benefit investors, state and ordinary Ethiopians alike.
Investment comes from a well-diversified

set of countries
Vegpro Group, a Kenyan firm that is partly
backed by the International Finance Corporation
(IFC), is said to be finalising a deal to lease
and manage two packaging houses just south
of Addis Ababa. Vegpro is one of the largest
suppliers of food to supermarkets in Europe. The
company will provide farmers with seeds and
then collect produce for packaging and export
after the harvest.
Foreign investment overtakes foreign aid

1400
9
8
7
1200
Public sector
Current US$ (millions)
US$ billions
Gross fixed capital formation (US$ billions)
Private sector
6
5
Net FDI
4
3
2
Inward FDI
Net ODA received
1000
800
600
400
200
Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Figure 7: Gross fixed capital formation (US$ billions)
Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators and United

Na9ons Commission for Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Figure 8: Foreign investment overtakes foreign aid
Creating new industries by

integrating supply chains
Cotton production is not new to Ethiopia but
this year will see the emergence of the countrys
first organic cotton farms, to supply the textile
industry with the raw material it needs to satisfy
European demand.
By sourcing its main input locally, AYCOOM
Agricultural Development Plc - a joint
venture between Ayka Addis Textile &
Investment Group and Omo Valley Agricultural
DevelopmentPlc-will stem Aykas increasing
need for foreign exchange to source organic
cotton abroad. In 2013 alone, Ayka spent more
than US$3.5 million on imported organic cotton.
The new venture is expected to require an
investment of about US$40 million and will use
state-owned land leased for a nominal fee.
Turkish firm Ayka relocated to Ethiopia in 2010
with an investment of US$140 million. Its
expansion plans go well beyond the new joint
venture and are intended to nearly triple its
export earnings from US$56 million (just over
half of all Ethiopian textile exports) in 2012/13.
Ayka currently has five plants in the outskirts
of Addis, and is building a new facility that will
create 13,000 jobs. At present, the company has
a permanent workforce of 7,500 - a significant
share of the 40,000 workers employed in the
entire Ethiopian textile industry.
Other Turkish textile manufacturers are expected
to follow in Aykas footprints, while a number
of South Korean textile companies are planning
to set up operations in Boli Lemi industrial zone,
which is under construction.
Light manufacturing leverages fine Ethiopian

leather: a new shoe industry is born
Chinese Huajian Group started producing shoes
for the US market in 2012. Its Ethiopian plant is
based in Dukem, 30km south-west of the capital.
The company produces shoes for brands such
as Guess and Calvin Klein, and hopes to see its
exports from Ethiopia reach US$4 billion within
ten years.
Hiroki Co. Ltd recently announced that it is
setting up a US$500 million manufacturing
operation in Ethiopia, where it will produce shoes
and other luxury accessories made from leather.
For the last seven years, the Japanese
manufacturer has imported Ethiopian sheepskin
to its factory in Beijing. Hiroki is already training
Ethiopian workers at its Chinese plant, and has
brought experts from Japan to train the rest of
the staff in Ethiopia. The move to Ethiopia has
been driven by the high quality of sheepskin.
Exports of leather, which were practically
non-existent in 2003, were worth US$23 million
in 2012.
Ethiopia is one of the most

inspiringmarkets
Diageo acquired Ethiopian brewery Meta a few
years ago for US$225 million and invested a
further US$50 million in the business, which is
growing by more than 50% per year and employs
over one hundred people. This growth is driven
by the expanding consumer base as more and
more people move out of poverty. And, like
firms in other sectors, Diageo is sourcing its
inputs from local sources, by working with over
1,000farmers.
10
Policy: the developmental state
The primary goal of the Ethiopian government is to

eradicate poverty by delivering economic growth and
transforming the structure of the economy. To this
end, the government has developed three successive
blueprints that have been implemented with varying
degrees of success:
The Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction
Program (SDPRP), implemented from 2002/03
to2004/05
The Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development
to End Poverty (PASDEP), implemented from 2005/06
to 2009/10
The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), covering
2010/11 to 2014/15xvi
Earlier reform programmes implemented in 1990s

focused on rehabilitating and reconstructing the
economy in the wake of the long civil war, and
incorporated both macroeconomic and structural
reforms. These took account of the fact that Ethiopia
had a centrally controlled economy with a very
limited private sector and a severely under-resourced
public servicexvii. The plans implemented since 2002
have built on the progress made in previous years
and also benefited from the debt relief obtained by
virtue of Ethiopia reaching completion point in the
enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)
programme. The total debt relief amounted to
just under US$2billion, spread over 17 years from
2004to2021xviii.
Ethiopias achievements in the economic sphere are all
the more impressive when considered alongside the
ground covered with respect to human development
indicators - such as poverty reduction, health and
education - and infrastructure improvements, including
institutional infrastructure or governance.
11
Agriculture and rural development in Ethiopia

2004
Target
2015
2010
1.21
1.7
tonne per hectares
tonne per hectares
40%
% change since
2010
2004
2,2
29%
82%
tonne per
hectares
Productivity
9.8
15%
11.25
million
hectares
million
hectares
Mining
Land under
cultivation for key
crops
0.82
212%
3.77
million
hectares
million
hectares
Rehabilitated land
20 437
33 636
cooperatives with
3.6m members
cooperatives with
5.9m members
65%
2004
2010
38%
51%
Geological information mapped
Productivity
7.2m
1249%
US$12.6m
Annual investment of US$
US$170m
Flowers
Agricultural export
revenues
125%
US$14.1m
US$31.7m
Fruit and veg
Transport infrastructure
1.55m
5.7 h
36 400
km roads
air
passengers
to reach an
all-weather road
3.7 h
48 800
ours
2010
km roads
Telecommunications
Railway network
1.42
bn
0 km
4.3m
3.128m
air
passengers
2395 km
Railway network
3.9
Tonnes of gold exported
92.5
202
Tonnes of tantalum exported
2.84
bn
0 km
Power
Water
2010
2004
2010
155,534
6520000
714
MW
2000
MW
mobile
subscriptions
generating
capacity
rural population
within 5km of a
telephone service
length of power
distribution lines
62%
3.4
Target 2015
tonnes/km
of cargo
2004
13%
2.3m
Annual revenues of US$
ours
2004
1.1b
25,000
km
126,038
km
2004
2010
36%
68.5%
Overall potable
water coverage:
12
Poverty reduction
In 1995, around 35 million Ethiopians - or just over

60% of the population - were living in extreme
poverty at the international threshold of $1.25 perday
at purchasing power parity (PPP). Dire though this
situation was, it was a fate shared by many more
millions of people in developing Sub-Saharan Africa,
where the incidence of extreme poverty obscured the
existence of around 58% of the population.
By 2011, Ethiopia had succeeded in halving the
incidence of poverty, using the same measure, despite
having seen the population swell from 57 million to
83million.
The poverty gap is a measure used to indicate the
average percentage shortfall in income for people
living in poverty. On this basis too, Ethiopia has
made enormous strides, narrowing the gap from
21% in 1995 to just 8% by 2011, with most of the
gains having been made in the last ten years. Over
the same period, the poverty gap in developing
Sub-SaharanAfrica decreased only slightly, from 26%
to 21%xix.
Ethiopia has the second largest population in Africa,

after Nigeria. Along with the countrys economic
growth record, the tremendous gains made in
reducing poverty are attracting the attention of
international consumer goods companies, drawn by
the sheer size of this market.
People living on less than $1.25/day (PPP)
100
Ethiopia (millions of people)
90
Ethiopia (% of popula>on)
80
Sub-Saharan Africa (% of popula>on)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981/82
1995/96
1999/2000
2005
2010/11
World Bank, PovCal database
Figure 10: People living on less than $1.25 per day at PPP
13
Health and education
Although Ethiopias rank in the Human Development

Index is still one of the lowest in the world, it
has made significant gains in terms of key health
indicators. These are summarised in the table below
and were achieved by implementing a health extension
strategy under the PASDEP plan, which saw over
33,000 health extension workers trained and deployed
in rural health centres that grew in number from 4,211
in 2004/05 to 14,416 by 2009/10. 32 new public
hospitals were built over the same period, bringing the
total number to 111. Although these achievements
are impressive, when measured as a proportion of
the population it is clear that much more remains to
bedone.
Outcomes with respect to education are less clear.

The number of pupils in primary education doubled
between 2002 and 2012, and increased by 179%
in secondary education. But proportionately fewer
students actually complete primary school and the
ratio of pupils to teachers - an indicator of the quality
of education - has worsened. This has happened
despite consistent investment into training more
teachers, suggesting that, once trained, teachers might
be attracted away from education to other sectors, a
problem that is not peculiar to Ethiopia by any means.
With respect to higher education, both the number
of graduates and the number of institutions have
increased: by 2009/10 there were 200,000 students in
total (including those enrolled in both undergraduates
and post-graduate courses). By way of comparison,
this is proportionately twice the number enrolled in
universities in Kenya in 2012xx.
Indicator
Measure
1992
2002
2012
Life expectancy at birth2
Years
48
54
62
Under 5 mortality rate
Per 1,000 live births
194.5
133.1
68.3
Infant mortality rate2
Per 1,000 live births
116.1
83
46.5
Children (1 year) immunised against measles
12
30
57
TB deaths per year (mid-point)2
Per 100,000 population
42
37
18
Prevalence of HIV
% of population ages 15-49
2.0
3.4
1.3
Health expenditure per capita PPP2
Constant 2005 international $
n.a.
23.93
51.96
Notes: 1 World Bank World Development Indicators; 2 Millennium Development Goals Indicators; n.a. = not available
Table 1: Selected health indicators
Indicator
Measure
1992
2002
2012
No. of teachers in primary1
thousands
68.4
259.6
270.4
No. of teachers in secondary
thousands
23.7
n.a.
122.2
No. of pupils in primary1
millions
2.1
7.2
14.5
No. of pupils in secondary
millions
0.8
1.7
4.9
Pupil:teacher ratio in primary
units
30
n.a.
54
Pupil:teacher ratio in secondary
units
33
n.a.
40
Pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade

of primary2
233
51
414
Education expenditure2
Current US$m
283
182
8705
Notes: 1 World Bank World Development Indicators; 2 Millennium Development Goals Indicators; n.a. = not available.
Table 2: Selected education indicators

14
Infrastructure improvements
In recent years, Ethiopia has made significant progress

in infrastructure, and its infrastructure
indicators compare relatively well with low-income
country peers. The country developed Ethiopia Airlines
(now one of the three main African airlines) and
associated regional air transport hubs. It has launched
an ambitious investment program to upgrade its
network of trunk roads and is establishing a modern
funding mechanism for road maintenance. Access
to water and sanitation is expanding rapidly (from a
very low base) thanks to judicious concentration on
intermediate options such as traditional latrines, wells,
boreholes and standposts.
- Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic
Although only 23% of Ethiopians had access to grid
electricity in 2010xxi, power production has increased
steadily over the last ten years and is almost exclusively
sourced from clean energy in the form of hydropower
stationsxxii. Ethiopia has the second largest hydropower
potential in Africa, after the Democratic Republic of
the Congo and is already starting to implement its
goal of becoming a major exporter of electricity in the
region. Net potential exports could reach 26.3 TWh
per year, bringing in US$m 263, which is equivalent
to about 2% of GDPxxiii. The investment needed to
make this happen is being sourced through a variety
of channels including domestic bonds and foreign
investment from the private sectorxxiv. New hydroplants
constructed in the last ten years include Tekeze (300
MW, completed in 2009)xxv, Gilgel GibeII (420 MW)xxvi
and Tana Belese (460MW)xxvii. Completion of the
Grand Renaissance Dam will see the existing capacity
of 2,000 MW quadruple, changing the face of
EastAfrican power infrastructureforever.
Improved access to water and water storage has been

achieved by implementing a range of solutions, from
rain-water harvesting to hand-dug wells to large-scale
irrigation schemesxxviii. The housing stock has been
increased, with 213,000 units built during the PASDEP
period, leading to new enterprise and job creation.
The expansion of the construction industry has seen
imports of inputs (capital goods and materials) increase
pending the development of domestic supply.
Until 2010, investment in roads - equivalent to around
3% of GDP per year - focused on upgrading and
rehabilitating the trunk road system. However, only
10% of Ethiopias rural population live within two
kilometres of an all-weather road, a serious challenge
considering that 76% of the total population lives in
rural areas. Solving this problem completely would
require tripling the length of the road network, and so
the strategy is to prioritise areas with high agricultural
potential in order to improve food securityxxix.
However, the construction of a 5,000km-long railway
network is now being implemented by the Ethiopian
Railways Corporation. Although the immediate priority
is to get the line between Addis Ababa and Djibouti
Port up and running - an achievement that will slash
the current cost of international freight - ultimately
the network is expected to reach every corner of
thecountryxxx.
Millions of kWh
Electricity production is increasing steadily
6 000
Road construction leads to new

manufacturing plant
Israeli firm AnyWay Solid Environmental Solution
first participated in a road building project
in Ethiopia seven years ago. The company
produces an environmentally-friendly chemical
product used to convert poor quality soil into a
strong impermeable layer. Stabilised earth block
construction is also used as an innovative , costeffective method for building low-cost housing.
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Electricity production (kWh)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Electric power consumption (kWh)

Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators
As Anyways business in Ethiopia expanded,

they reached the conclusion that they needed to
produce their product locally, and have set the
wheels in motion to establish a manufacturing
plant that they hope will enter production later
this year.
Figure 11: Electricity supply and demand

15
The transformation of Addis Ababa into a regional

hub for air transportation, through the upgrading of
Bole International Airport and launch of Ethiopian
Airlines has been a major success for Ethiopia. The
airline is now one of the top three in Africa and is
expanding fast.
Hong Kong
Ethiopian Airlines - growing by 25%

peryear
Founded in 1945, Ethiopian Airlines is one
of Africas big success stories and has won
numerous international awards over the years,
including repeated recognition as the best airline
in Africa. In 2011, it became the third African
member of Star Alliance after EgyptAir and
SouthAfrican Airways and currently has codeshare agreements with 15 other international
airlines, as well as strategic partnerships with
West African ASKY airlines and Malawi Airlines,
as part of its plan to create multiple hubs in
theregion.
Ethiopian Airlines has grown rapidly over the last
ten years and provides a valuable underpinning
to the expansion of Ethiopian international
trade and relations, acting as a catalyst to
AddisAbabas emergence as a regional and even
global hub. As well as services to 17 domestic
destinations, the airline now offers flights to
80 international destinations, the most recent
addition being Shanghai.
Since 2003, the number of passengers has
quadrupled, increasing from 1.12m to 4.64m.
Cargo has grown even more, reaching
181,000tonnes in 2012, up from just
36,000tonnes in 2003. The fleet has been
modernised and has also increased from 29 a
decade ago to 62 by 2014. A further 33 aircraft including 8 Boeing Dreamliners - are on order.
Liege
Beirut
Luxembourg
Cairo
Jeddah
Dubai
Delhi
Mumbai
Khartoum
Juba
Ndjemena
Chennai
Accra
Lagos
Addis Ababa
Bujumbura
Point
Noire
Kigali Entebbe
Nairobi
Brazzaville
Kinshasa
Lusaka
Johannesburg
Cargo Operation with B777F and MD-11F Aircraft types

Cargo Operation with B757F, B777F and MD-11F Aircraft types
Cargo Operation with B757F Aircraft types
*Point Noire is operated from Luxembourg and Accra is operated from Liege
Source: www.ethiopianairlines.com
16
Addis as a hub
Addis Ababa has emerged as a regional hub and

is home to key international organisations. The
African Union (AU), set up as a successor to the
Organisation of African Unity in 1999, has its
headquarters in Addis Ababa, which hosts the heads
of 54 member states at the annual summit, with
permanent staff residing in the Ethiopian capital
year-round. The new AU headquarters, a US$200m
gift from the Chinese government inaugurated in
January 2012, dominates the skyline of the city
and serves as a reminder of Chinas expanding
influence on the African continentxxxi. It also serves
as a counterpoint to the headquarters of the
UnitedNations Economic Commission for Africa, set
up in 1961. Both organisations help to ensure that
Addis is firmly entrenched as a continental - and
international-meeting place.
Prestigious private jet services land

in Addis
Houston-based Universal Weather and Aviation
Inc. plans to open an office in Ethiopia in
May2014, driven by demand for its services by
high level clients. The company, which has been
in business for fifty years, has organised travel
to Ethiopia for dignitaries such as Condoleezza
Rice and former US president George Bush, as
well as the Pfizer management team and Strive
Masiyiwa, founder of Econet Wireless.
UNECA headquarters in Addis
New African Union headquarters in Addis
Source: http://www.africanmedialeadersforum.org
Photo by: Dereje Belachew - www.500px.com
17
International relations
Ethiopias position in the troubled Horn of Africa

region gives it a particular strategic advantage with the
United States, which views it as a key ally. At the same
time, Chinese influence has strengthened over the
years, with increasing trade and extensive aid. Chinese
companies have invested in infrastructure projects but
also in light manufacturing, focusing on sectors that
are being prioritised by the Ethiopian government,
such as leather and textiles.
Ties with most of Ethiopias neighbours have

strengthened too, thanks to the countrys participation
in multilateral organisations such as the Amisom
peacekeeping mission in Somalia and the proposed
African Mechanism for Police Co operationxxxii.
Crossborder infrastructure programmes have also
served to strengthen links. These include a water
pipeline to Djibouti as well as the implementation of
Ethiopias hydropower potential, which will feed into a
regional power pool. But the dam-building programme
presents some challenges, particularly due to the
strain put on relations with Egypt given the challenge
to riparian rights to the Nile that is embodied in
the development of the Grand Renaissance Dam.
Relations with Eritrea remain at an impasse, but are
broadlystable.
18
Prospects
The significant gains that Ethiopia has made over

the last fifteen years - in terms of macroeconomic
stability, growth, the development of hard and
soft infrastructure, reducing poverty and improving
the quality of life of ordinary Ethiopians - have
contributed to creating the enabling environment that
business-whether domestically-owned or foreign needs to thrive and prosper. This environment is still a
work in progress, and the investments planned in the
framework of the current Growth and Transformation
Plan (2010/11-2014/15) are designed to stimulate
further success, while in many cases they embody
business opportunities.
Meanwhile, investors from a wide range of countries

have already set up operations spanning a variety
of sectors. Some of these investments have already
changed the structure of Ethiopian exports; others will
gradually change the very structure of the economy, as
the manufacturing sector matures.
Ethiopias growth miracle has been less a
miracle than the result of persistence and dogged
determination to address poverty in measurable
and meaningful ways: by creating the hard and
soft infrastructure that will enable business success,
by playing better to the countrys comparative
advantages in trade, and by ensuring both political
and macroeconomic stability. In short, the factors
underlying Ethiopias stellar growth record have
been simple, but setting them in place represents an
extraordinary achievement.
19
Contacts
Haileleul Tamiru
Email: [email protected]
Danette Quinlan
Solomon Gizaw
Carlton Jones
20
Annexure 1: Notes and references
World Economic Outlook, October 2013, IMF

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Data
iii
Martin Meredith, The State of Africa: A History of Fifty Years of Independence (2006) XX page, publisher
iv
Start years
v
EIU Country report March 2014; IMF Country reports
vi
African Development Bank (http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Financial-Information/
ADB-BD-WP-2002-12-EN-ETHIOPIA-HIPC-APPROVAL-DOCUMENT.PDF)
vii
World Bank, World Development Indicators, in US dollar terms
viii
Office of the United States Trade Representative http://www.ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Ethiopia_0.pdf
ix
See section 4.5 for a discussion of the outlook for manufacturing.
x
http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_ni/ni_pdfs/NationalReports/ethiopia/mining.pdf
xi
http://www.africanleadershipnetwork.com/member_perspectives/mining-sneaking-to-the-front/
xii
http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/ECON%20Brief_Ethiopias%20
Economic%20growth.pdf
xiii
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTAFRICA/Resources/Ethiopia-Country_Report_03.2011.pdf
xiv
file:///C:/Users/kpulvermacher/Documents/Work/Ethiopia/Source%20documents/Ethiopia's%20Investment%20
Prospects.pdf
xv
http://www.silkinvest.com/2012/06/silk-invest-closes-private-equity-investment-in-ethiopia.html and https://
www.gov.uk/government/news/business-cdc-backs-first-ethiopian-fund
xvi
The Ethiopian fiscal year begins on 8th July each year of the Gregorian calendar.
xvii
http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Evaluation-Reports/05092255-EN-ETHIOPIASTRUCTURAL-ADJUSTMENT-PROGRAMME.PDF
xviii
See http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Financial-Information/ADB-BD-WP-2004-96-ENETHIOPIA-HIPC-APPROVAL-DOCUMENT-COMPLETION-POINT.PDF for full breakdown
xix
World Bank, PovCal database.
xx
http://www.jbhe.com/2012/05/record-number-of-students-admitted-to-kenyan-public-universities/
xxi
Rural electrification programmes have focused on providing small-scale solar solutions as well as energysaving biomass ovens, alongside extension of the national grid to more towns and villages GTP p.14
xxii
World Bank, World Development Indicators
xxiii
Africas Power Infrastructure: Investment, Integration, Efficiency, by Anton Eberhard, Orvika Rosnes, Maria
Shkaratan and Haakon Vennemo, World Bank, 2011
xxiv
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-11/reykjavik-to-start-drilling-on-2-billion-ethiopia-power-project.
html
xxv
http://www.mwhglobal.com/mwh-projects/tekeze-river-hydropower-project
xxvi
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/ethiopia-plans-to-repair-gilgel-ii-start-electricity-exports-thisyear.html
xxvii
http://globalenergyobservatory.org/geoid/42509
xxviii
Growth and Transformation Plan p. 15
xxix
AICD Country Report, March 2010
xxx
http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/transport-riding-the-rails-in-ethiopia-and-kenya.html
xxxi
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/ozatp-africa-china-idAFJOE80S00K20120129
xxxii
Ethiopia Country Report, March 2014, The Economist Intelligence Unit
i
ii
21
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), a UK private company limited by
guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please
see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
and its member firms.
Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning
multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte
brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address
their most complex business challenges. Deloitte has in the region of 200 000 professionals, all committed to
becoming the standard of excellence.
This communication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its
member firms, or their related entities (collectively, the Deloitte Network) is, by means of this publication,
rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your
finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network
shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this communication.
2014 Deloitte & Touche. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
Designed and produced by Creative Services at Deloitte, Johannesburg. (000000/jomaris)

Za Ethiopia Growth Miracle July2014

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Za Ethiopia Growth Miracle July2014

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Za Ethiopia Growth Miracle July2014

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Ethiopia

Ethiopias growth miracle

Currency stability and exchange rate policy

Changing structure of GDP

Policy: the developmental state

Health and education

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Ethiopias growth miracle

Ethiopias growth miracle, coupled with its large

Ethiopia has historically experienced severe droughts

Data: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Data: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Figure 1: Understanding economic drivers, 1980-2018

After more than two decades of civil war, the effects

The death of Meles Zenawi in 2012, first elected as

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Currency stability and

The National Bank of Ethiopia operates a managed

In keeping with the primary goal of poverty alleviation,

New technology to speed up

Credit cards become more widely available

Debt service has increased but is sustainable

Exchange rate, foreign reserves and the current account

Total debt service (% of exports)

Total debt service (% of GNI)

Figure 2: Debt service has increased but is sustainable

Total international reserves

Exchange rate Birr:US$ (av)

Figure 3: Exchange rate, foreign reserves and the current account

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Banks in OECD countries typically use interest rates

Food prices and food imports as inflation drivers

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

International food prices (annual % change)

Figure 4: Food prices and food imports as inflation drivers

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Changing structure of GDP

Dependence on agriculture has decreased significantly

Ethiopia leverages its natural resource

Evolution of the Ethiopian economy

Data: World Development Indicators

Figure 5: Evolution of the Ethiopian economy

Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012

Evolution of agricultural output (US$m)

Agricultures share of GDP has not altered much, but

The expansion of mining activity will also contribute

Figure 6: Evolution of agricultural output (US$ million)

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Changes in the composition of agricultural output are

Effective partnerships led to the birth of

Ethiopia A growth miracle

Over the last decade, investment in Ethiopia has

Investment comes from a well-diversified

Foreign investment overtakes foreign aid

Current US$ (millions)

Gross fixed capital formation (US$ billions)

Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Figure 7: Gross fixed capital formation (US$ billions)