Approach to Criticality Analysis

Uberlytics approach to criticality

analysis and the Criticality Analyzer
Uberly'cs oers a unique approach to system cri'cality analysis,
applicable to any complex facility or system. The Uberly'cs approach
has consistently iden'ed signicant unrecognized risks and quan'ed
in dollars the risk poten'al. It is an invaluable tool and approach when
risk mi'ga'on, whether for down-'me or safety or environmental
compliance, is vital to assure overall success balanced against the reality
of limited capital and maintenance dollars. This prime constraint is most
commonly known as the Level of Service versus Cost to Maintain
equa'on.
Three key aspects of the Uberly'cs approach to cri'cality analysis will
be demonstrated in the following case studies:
A func4onal system approach instead of a discrete asset focus
allows for a more ecient process and delivers more meaningful
results.
Inclusion of 100 percent of systems and assets ensures
iden'ca'on of previously unrecognized cri'cal assets and sub-
components, oGen with surprising ndings.
Flexibility to include evalua4on categories important and
unique to the client results in an analysis truly reec've of the
clients values and constraints.
In each case study,
the Uberlytics
approach and
Criticality Analyzer
identified previously
unknown significant
system risks.

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The case studies presented here involve a ground water remedia'on

site, a large municipal system, and an industrial water treatment system
within a renery. Each study had a unique set of evalua'on criteria
determined by the clients values and the unique performance,
contractual, and regulatory issues aec'ng the facili'es. In each case
study, the Uberly'cs approach and Cri'cality Analyzer iden'ed
previously unknown signicant system risks, allowing the client to take
specic ac'on to mi'gate those risks. Due to conden'ality
considera'ons, specic names and the actual numerical data have been
removed.

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

Case One
Ground Water Remediation System
Situation
A major rening opera'on in southern California includes a ground
water remedia'on process consis'ng of extrac'on wells, a uidized bed
ac'vated-media treatment process with ltra'on, and internal re-use of
the treated water. This groundwater treatment process is heavily
regulated and closely monitored by state regulatory agencies. The
system design incorporates a small amount of excess capacity to help
meet the annual target but given the annual turnaround requirements
each year there is very liOle room for down-'me outside the renery
schedule, making up-'me a key performance metric.
In mid 2004 a sequence of unusual, but not extraordinary, events led to
an extended shutdown, jeopardizing the ability of the system to meet
the annual treatment targets before the year was half over. This placed
the owner at considerable risk for regulatory ac'ons and nes.

Leveraging the
functional system
approach rather than
a discrete asset
approach resulted in
not only a more
efficient process, but
also more meaningful
results.

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Because the process is rela'vely robust and reliable, such a situa'on

had not been an'cipated even though excellent engineering and
opera'onal management had been in place. It became clear that
conven'onal approaches through process reviews, HAZOPs, and an
aggressive maintenance program, were not adequate and the need to
nd the true risks in the system was paramount.
Response
The owner's engineering sta worked to engineer out repeat future
occurrences of similar events. However, they quickly found that what
caused the shutdown was mostly an odd combina'on of circumstances
and otherwise quite random and normally inconsequen'al failures. In
short, they could not nd what to x.
The owner requested assistance in the evalua'on of the overall process
to iden'fy the as yet hidden risks and related poten'al issues in order to
prevent future similar and unforeseen occurrences. The Uberly'cs
cri'cality analysis approach (in development for a few years already)
and an early version of Cri'cality Analyzer were brought and applied in
a workshop environment where the owner's system experts including
engineers and operators were brought together with a cri'cality analysis
expert facilitator. Inclusion of 100% of the overall process units in this
func'onal area of the renery and inclusion of pipes and valves as a
separate group asset proved essen'al. The registry comprised in excess
of 30 main func'onal systems and in excess of 200 discrete main assets.
Against this backdrop of a comprehensive asset registry, leveraging the
func'onal system approach rather than a discrete asset approach
resulted in not only a more ecient process, but also more meaningful
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Approach to Criticality Analysis

results.
Given the rela'vely limited scope of the system as compared to a plant
wide analysis, a few hours of prepara'on and a day of workshops
accomplished an analysis of the complete remedia'on system, and
produced remarkable and surprising results.

The owner was

focused on treatment
capacity concerns,
but thorough
analysis revealed that
an important spill/
overflow requirement
could easily be
violated at high
probability.

Results
While the owner's focus was primarily on preven'ng recurrence of the
recent event, a full analysis of the system revealed several key aspects
that led to a more comprehensive understanding of the process and
associated risks. Specic improvement opportuni'es were iden'ed
that would immensely reduce risk with remarkably liOle eort and
expense. Some of these are:
Final Filter The client system experts ini'ally suggested ignoring a
treated water lter that had been merely an annoyance to them in
order to save 'me in the analysis. The lter had been added to the
process as an aGerthought in order to treat minor and rare uctua'ons
in quality that had since been worked out. However, once analyzed, it
was found that this lter posed the highest risk within the en're
process. The owner representa'ves had been focusing on treatment
capacity concerns, but thorough analysis revealed that an important
spill/overow requirement could easily be violated at high probability
due to the lter. Merely addressing the failure modes or simply
removing the lter from service would increase reliability of the overall
process immensely. Poten'al losses here could reach well into the
hundreds of thousands of dollars (larger inves'ga'ons, cleanup, local
and State nes) at a fairly high degree of probability.
Fluidizing Recircula0on The central treatment aspect in the process is
a biologically ac've media uidized bed reactor. Analysis revealed that
many poten'al failures throughout the process led to the consequence
of loss of uidizing ow in the reactor, leading to congealing of the bed,
which in turn required its replacement at great cost and loss of
produc'on. It was recognized that the system could be quickly, easily,
and cheaply modied to provide the capability to re-circulate uidizing
ow, which would prevent congealing the bed. This one simple change,
consis'ng of adding a short length of pipe and a valve, eliminated or
signicantly reduced the consequences of numerous poten'al failures
throughout the process and eliminated a majority of the risk associated
with treatment capacity and the consent decree treatment limits.
Failure to meet treatment limits are ned at over $1MM per day.
Level Controls Some'me aGer the process was designed and installed,
an equaliza'on tank was added at the inlet into the process. Controls
were included to operate the pumps to manage the level in the tank.
However, the added func'ons of equaliza'on and the associated
components had not been suciently evaluated in respect to the overall

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

process. Analysis revealed many poten'al failures that would result in
the equaliza'on tank either going dry or overowing. To complicate
maOers, an overow, while contained, would be considered equal to an
actual environmental discharge, and thus deemed unacceptable by the
client (see next item). There were no backup or failure controls such as
high and low alarms and interlocks installed in the tank and integrated
into the process controls. Simply adding these simple controls would
eliminate a large number of poten'al failures and signicantly reduce
overall system risk. Costs associated with these events range from a few
thousand to tens of thousands of dollars (inves'ga'ons and crew lost
'me).
Containment The analysis revealed that treatment capacity, which had
been the complete focus of the owner, was not the only regulatory
requirement that applied or was at risk. In fact, the severity of spilling
untreated or par'ally treated groundwater was at least as high, if not
higher, than treatment capacity objec'ves. Analysis revealed the
majority of poten'al failures resulted in spills and overows, viola'ng
this regulatory requirement. When the facility was constructed, an area
with a simple six inch concrete berm was used for containment.
Existence of the berm was assumed to be adequate for containment.
However, analysis revealed that numerous poten'al failures could lead
to overow of containment. By raising the berm and extending it to
include the en're process, the majority of these poten'al failures would
be eliminated or their consequences signicantly reduced. Poten'al
losses here could reach well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars
(larger inves'ga'ons, cleanup, local and State nes).
Conventional
analysis and
evaluation of what
had happened failed
to reveal meaningful
ways to address the
situation and prevent
recurrence in the
future.

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Summary
Not only did the Uberly'cs cri'cality analysis approach pinpoint the
issues behind the major occurrence, but it also found numerous other
risks, as well as providing simple and cost eec've solu'ons that
immensely reduced the risk prole for the en're process in all risk areas.
Further, what was thought to be an inconspicuous and apparently
insignicant process component was actually of major importance.
Conven'onal analysis and evalua'on of what had happened failed to
reveal meaningful ways to address the situa'on and prevent recurrence
in the future. The investment eort and cost to perform cri'cality
analysis using the methodology that Cri'cality Analyzer is designed to
support were insignicant in comparison to the value gained.

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

Case Two
Public Utility, Pacific Northwest

Inclusion of 100
percent of the
systems and assets
ensured identification
of previously
unrecognized critical
assets and subcomponents.

Situation
A public works department of a major US city decided to begin doing
infrastructure asset management on their systems. They began by using
their wastewater plant as a tes'ng and development area to build
integrated asset management systems and processes. The program
needed to iden'fy the cri'cality ranking of every system within the
overall facility service area. In short, what were the weak links in the
chain that would upset the client mandated Level of Service to the
customers and in what priority should resources in general be allocated?
Response
In 2006 the work began in performing a cri'cality analysis using the
methodology developed by Uberly'cs and an early version of the
Cri'cality AnalyzerTM. Central to the overall success was the exibility of
the analysis to include evalua'on categories important to the local
client, such as safety, environmental risk, stakeholders, as well as
capacity. The result was an analysis truly reec've of the clients local
values.
The treatment plant was evaluated and a hierarchy of components
developed. Workshops with engineers, opera'ons, and maintenance
representa'ves from the city were facilitated by experts in the cri'cality
analysis methodology that Cri'cality Analyzer was designed to support.
The facility was broken into tens of func'onal systems, each designed to
deliver a specic func'on, each comprising of hundreds of individual
assets, such as pumps, MCC panels, pipe and valve collec'ons,
monitoring equipment, gas turbines, power genera'on, etc. This
detailed approach using 100 percent coverage ensured iden'ca'on of
not only the cri'cal systems but also the cri'cal assets and sub-
components in those systems to eciently drill down to the items of
concern.

Image 1 - Sample color bubble risk-probability graph

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Results
The analysis yielded some surprising results in addi'on to
the an'cipated areas of risk. Accurate rankings for all
equipment yielded immediate returns by priori'zing for
areas like engineering evalua'on, maintenance and capital
investment, opera'onal aOen'on, etc. Eciency and
payback gains were immediate and observable. Image 1 is a
sample risk-probability graph of typical analysis results. Each
bubble represents a collec'on of systems in that risk
ranking. The en're analysis is represented within all the
bubbles. Posi'on represents overall risk ranking, color
represents rela've risk on the iso-risk line, and size
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Approach to Criticality Analysis

represents the number of assets in that risk ranking. Four results of note
are briey discussed.
Gas Condi0oning - A recent upgrade of the cogenera'on plant brought
par'cular focus to that part of the opera'on. More so, given that
certain nancial incen'ves and disincen'ves were put in place related to
its service up-'me, the overall importance of this system was deemed
the most cri'cal system. Upstream of the cogenera'on plant, the gas-
condi'oning system cleans the gas and removes moisture to provide a
gas quality nearly equal to distribu'on line natural gas. The gas
condi'oning system achieved a high ranking because of its collateral
damage poten'al. Further, it had several points of failure, many of
which would inhibit or stop the ow of gas to the cogenera'on plant.
The lead 'me for the key vulnerable component was 12-16 weeks.
The nancial penal'es associated with a failure here were prohibi've,
and merely having a shelf spare of the blower mi'gated this risk.

Failure of a single
front end loader
would stop solids
flow and quickly
backlog the system.
Vehicles had never
been thought of as
treatment process
components.

Substa0on Transformer - This iden'ed system was a surprise to all

par'cipants. The transformer had been grandfathered into the
treatment plant assets long ago from the electrical u'lity company. It
had gone unno'ced by local management, had no record of inspec'on
or condi'on, was historically assumed outside the fence, and was in
fact unrecognized as part of the electrical transmission service to the
plant. This substa'on was actually a single power feed to the old and
lower por'on of the plant receiving more than 4.8 million gallons of
sewage per day by gravity. Failure of this substa'on would poten'ally
result in 5 million gallons per day of raw sewage to the Columbia River.
To exacerbate maOers, a failure of the substa'on would likely damage
the building next door that housed the emergency backup power
breaker, eec'vely nega'ng the use of backup power.
Fines associated with this event could be extremely high (hundreds of
thousands of dollars) in addi'on to the nega've public percep'on. A
simple solu'on was not only to monitor and maintain the transformer,
but also to arrange for a 24 hour replacement unit.
Service Vehicle - Because the en're process and all func'ons of the
treatment plant were included in the analysis, vehicles were included
and evaluated for cri'cality. The analysis revealed that a single front
end loader cons'tuted mul'ple links in the ow of solids produced from
the treatment process. Failure of the loader would stop solids ow,
which would quickly backlog and impact the liquid treatment process
signicantly aec'ng euent quality and capacity. This had not been
iden'ed as a risk area because vehicles had never been thought of as
treatment process components.
The analysis revealed and quan'ed the requirements the loader was
actually fullling. This provided all of the informa'on and specica'ons
needed to develop an alterna've, which a simple advance agreement

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

with a local rental vendor would adequately meet: a virtually no-cost
mi'ga'on to an otherwise major risk that previously had not been
iden'ed.
Telecom - Cri'cal systems with a slightly lower risk ranking, but s'll
surprisingly high, were main plant telecom and telephone systems due
to their integra'on in call out and emergency response systems, and
one of the main treatment process units.

The comprehensive
approach to criticality
analysis far
surpassed the
original goal by
identifying serious

Summary
Cri'cality analysis, and the comprehensive approach developed, far
surpassed the original goal by iden'fying several areas of risk that had
not been previously captured or recognized. Each had the poten'al to
seriously aect the overall mission statement of the citys u'lity as well
as result in costly nes and poli'cal fallout. Further, each was managed
with rela'vely simple and low cost alterna'ves to reduce or eliminate
the risks.
To meet the original goal, the analysis provided the ranking of all facility
systems by priority; necessary to enable two things. The phased
implementa'on of the larger asset management program, and the
ongoing alloca'on of work and resources to proceed with maximum
eciency and ecacy.

risks that had been

overlooked.

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

Case Three
Refinery Boiler Feed Pretreatment
System

The success of this

analysis hinged on the
flexibility to include
not only areas such as
safety, environmental,
capacity, and up-time,
but also commercial
terms, liquidated
damages, and contract
terms.

Situation
A boiler feed water pretreatment system was due for an expansion and
had undergone several design reviews, two HAZOP reviews, and several
construc'on reviews. However, given the importance of this system
within the renery opera'on as well as being a key part of the renery
overall water reuse ini'a've, the renery elected to commission a
cri'cality analysis on the plant boiler feed water pretreatment system.
The decision to perform a cri'cality analysis was also based, in part, on
the success of the previous review methodology. However, since the
system had also undergone some annual refurbishments and aGer 18
years of opera'on was thought to be fully known, there were
decreased expecta'ons that any previously uniden'ed issues would
surface. This assump'on proved to be false.

Response
As in the previous example, the success of this analysis again hinged on
the exibility to include not only areas such as safety, environmental,
capacity, and up-'me, but also commercial terms, liquidated damages,
and contract terms. This proved to be a truly unique analysis with
results reec've of more than just a process view, revealing the unique
situa'on this systems risk prole posed within the larger context of the
client opera'on. See Category sec'on
Image 2 - Detail from Criticality Analyzer analysis customizable set-up and
of Image 2.
definitions page

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The same steps were conducted as

above, except in this case an asset
registry had previously been generated
as part of a HAZOP review. The
database was imported for the analysis.
Again, a team comprising various client
experts was assembled with a cri'cality
analysis expert facilitator. Inclusion of
100% of the overall process units in this
func'onal area of the renery again
proved essen'al, as did leveraging the
func'onal system approach rather than
a discrete asset perspec've. This
enabled a more ecient means of
iden'fying the cri'cal systems and
associated assets, saving 'me and
money.

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

Results
The analysis did clarify and further dene the generally known cri'cal
areas central to the overall mission. However, once again the analysis
brought to the surface as yet uncovered risks inherent to the system.
While the system was thought to be fully understood, neither the
ranking of cri'cal risk systems was as expected, nor was the discovery of
the most cri'cal systems. One system was a par'cular surprise to the
inves'ga'ng team and two other systems were elevated to a higher
cri'cality than previously thought given the poten'al for overall system
failure.

The analysis showed

that the failure of a
$10K brine recharge
system would bring
the whole treatment
facility to a full shutdown in less than a
shift with no
alternative or backup.

Brine System - Previous thinking had placed the highest risk on the
actual soGener units that had internal corrosion issues, valued at almost
$1MM, which would impair capacity. However, the analysis showed
that the failure of a $10K brine recharge system would bring the whole
treatment facility to a full shut-down in less than a shiG with no
alterna've or backup. This event would have a serious impact to the
renery opera'onal cost, even possible reduc'on of boiler capacity, in
addi'on to triggering contractual damages as a service provider to the
renery. The lead 'me to replace the system was four weeks and so any
unexpected down'me of the brine system would have been clearly
unacceptable. The poten'al cost of the risk was hundreds of 'mes that
of the brine pump system cost.
As a consequence the pump system was evaluated for condi'on and
severity of service load. The decision was made quickly to replace the
pump with a new and more robust one.
Waste Lines Blockage The waste lines had always been assumed a
secondary considera'on of the system as they were operated at low or
ambient pressure, and thus had liOle aOen'on focused on them.
However, given the system congura'on it was discovered that any
poten'al blockage, via several mechanisms, outside the opera'onal
boundary area would result in a serious process upset and possible
blowout of the main RO units, in addi'on to fouling of the membranes.
Aside from the cost to repair and clean the membranes, the down 'me
would be unacceptable to the renery. The solu'on was again simple
and inexpensive - enhanced monitoring and inexpensive relief valves -
compared to the poten'al cost of the risk (over $100K).
Plant Air A system that oGen went unno'ced, especially just outside
the baOery limit of the process unit, was the plant compressed air
supply. Several of the key water condi'oning and support backwash
and cleaning opera'ons are controlled by air operated valves. Even
par'al failure of the air system via low pressure in this system could
again severely impair the opera'on of the overall system, even to
complete process failure. Once again the solu'on to reduce the risk
prole was low cost versus the risk of a shut down, simply by adding

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Approach to Criticality Analysis

addi'onal inspec'on to the rounds and a simple pressure alarm.
Summary
Even though the system and its associated risks were thought to be fully
understood, inclusion of contractual and commercial evalua'on
parameters highlighted the rela'onship between process and
commercial risks that had previously gone unno'ced. A true cost could
then be assigned to those risks for a more comprehensive business risk
evalua'on. As part of the exercise, it was also easy to iden'fy low cost
and tangible solu'ons to mi'gate those risks at a frac'on of the risk
cost, signicantly reducing the cost to maintain, eciently targe'ng
capital and maintenance dollars.

Conclusion

Ignorance of
risk is not
absence of
risk.

It is clear from these three sample case studies where this methodology
has been applied, that a carefully planned and well executed cri'cality
analysis has tremendous benets. The Uberly'cs approach to cri'cality
analysis consistently iden'es previously undiscovered system risks.
The Cri'cality Analyzer is a sophis'cated and invaluable decision
making soGware tool specically and uniquely designed to deliver those
specic analysis tools to your facilitys management. In todays
economic climate, far more than pen and paper, or even an Excel spread
sheet, is needed to eec'vely and eciently meet the objec'ves of any
serious comprehensive asset management and capital planning/
implementa'on program. A sophis'cated yet ecient approach is
required to iden'fy hidden risks in a cost eec've way that also lends
itself to solu'on iden'ca'on. The Uberly'cs approach consistently
meets and exceeds that objec've.
We look forward to assis'ng you in your upcoming cri'cality analysis.
Uberly'cs will help you capture those as yet uniden'ed system risks.

Contact:
Tacoma Zach
[email protected]
480.414.4636

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Tacoma Zach, P.Eng (Ontario and Alberta) is a Cer7ed Reliability Leader and CEO of Uberly7cs,
experts in cri7cality analysis. With over two decades in opera7ons under his belt, he now helps
organiza7ons discover whats most cri7cal to their mission and use that informa7on to op7mize their
asset management.
In 2014 Tacoma was voted Best Speaker at Solu7ons 2.0 for his presenta7on Cri,cality is 42, and
presented at AZ WEF, WEFTEC and IMC 2014. He is the author of Cri,cality Analysis Made Simple,
published by Reliabilityweb.com.

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